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DevilYouKnow
12-31-2017, 07:48 AM
Will everyone who has ever doubted his abilities/worthiness/judgement please apologize now, and profusely.

Dude saved that game. His play at crunch time was magnificent and clutch AF.

CDu
12-31-2017, 08:43 AM
Will everyone who has ever doubted his abilities/worthiness/judgement please apologize now, and profusely.

Dude saved that game. His play at crunch time was magnificent and clutch AF.

I have been a defender of Duval all season, but this is silly. Why should people have to apologize for their opinions because of a great 4-minute stretch of a single game?

sagegrouse
12-31-2017, 08:45 AM
Will everyone who has ever doubted his abilities/worthiness/judgement please apologize now, and profusely.

Dude saved that game. His play at crunch time was magnificent and clutch AF.

Let's see, is this an example of "fan-shaming?"

camion
12-31-2017, 09:05 AM
I am shocked, shocked to find that Trevon has been playing like a very talented freshman, sometimes outstanding and sometimes not. I'm not sure whether to view him as young-but-talented or talented-but-young. :confused:

DukieInBrasil
12-31-2017, 09:23 AM
I have not been driving the Trevon Duval appreciation train, but those final minutes were fantastic.
However, as CDu said, appreciation for those minutes does not necessarily make previous criticism or frustration invalid.
Kid's a Fr., and he'll continue to have imperfections, likely during every game, and things he can improve on. Sometimes he'll amaze us, sometimes not.

superdave
12-31-2017, 09:48 AM
I have not been driving the Trevon Duval appreciation train, but those final minutes were fantastic.
However, as CDu said, appreciation for those minutes does not necessarily make previous criticism or frustration invalid.
Kid's a Fr., and he'll continue to have imperfections, likely during every game, and things he can improve on. Sometimes he'll amaze us, sometimes not.

There are stretches where he is the best player on the floor, like going coast to coast yesterday, or hawking the passing lanes. And there are stretches where he gets outside of himself, looks to shoot first and pass later. But he's gotten better the last two months. On this trajectory, he could be The Man come March.

rsvman
12-31-2017, 10:31 AM
I was extremely impressed with his play in the waning minutes of the game yesterday. I think he "saved the game," if you will, for us against Florida State. I was very happy for him and for the team.

Having said that, I will not apologize for any of my comments concerning his play in the Boston College game. Just as surely as he made fantastic decisions and great plays near the end of yesterday's game, he made bone-headed plays and decisions near the end of the BC game. This, in my opinion, is to be expected of a very talented freshman basketball player. I love the guy and support him completely. I'm not angry or a "hater" or anything just because I pointed out some bad decisions he made in one game. I think he's great and I'm extremely glad he's on our team.

Going forward, I suspect that we'll see more times that he does fantastic things for us than that he does bone-headed things.

CDu
12-31-2017, 10:31 AM
There are stretches where he is the best player on the floor, like going coast to coast yesterday, or hawking the passing lanes. And there are stretches where he gets outside of himself, looks to shoot first and pass later. But he's gotten better the last two months. On this trajectory, he could be The Man come March.

I am not sure Duval has shown a clear upward trajectory. He was better over his first six games than he was over his next seven. Until the final four minutes, yesterday was a continuation of that trend.

That said, for all his ups and downs, he was still on average a very solid PG - even over his less impressive stretch.

For the season, he is averaging 12 points, 6.6 assists, and a 3.1 assist/turnover ratio. That assist rate would be on the short list of best ever at Duke for a freshman. The assist/to ratio would be the best ever at Duke, regardless of class. And he is doing that while scoring 12 ppg on 46% fg%.

Duval has been all-ACC good overall. And it is doubly impressive that he has played this well despite being far from a polished product. But while I definitely don’t agree with those who complain about him, they are quite free to have that opinion. And they shouldn’t have to apologize for it, unless they went overboard in calling him names or trashing him (which should require apology regardless of his play).

Furniture
12-31-2017, 10:37 AM
I think Duke fans put a lot of extremely high expectations on point guards to the point of no forgiveness for any mistake. In some games other players are having bad games but not a word is mentioned. I remember a lot of people complaining about Quinn Cook in his early years, about Derryck Thornton and now its Trickys turn. The only exception is Tysus I guess.

Rich
12-31-2017, 12:04 PM
I think Duke fans put a lot of extremely high expectations on point guards to the point of no forgiveness for any mistake. In some games other players are having bad games but not a word is mentioned. I remember a lot of people complaining about Quinn Cook in his early years, about Derryck Thornton and now its Trickys turn. The only exception is Tysus I guess.

Agreed, and going back to Bobby Hurley, who was very erratic and often criticized as being out of control as a freshman. Tyus set an unbelievably high bar, not just with being steady, but also last minute heroics and shot making.

CDu
12-31-2017, 12:28 PM
Agreed, and going back to Bobby Hurley, who was very erratic and often criticized as being out of control as a freshman. Tyus set an unbelievably high bar, not just with being steady, but also last minute heroics and shot making.

It is worth noting that Duval is currently outperforming Jones. More points per game with a better FG%; more assists per game; better assist/turnover ratio; more steals per game. All while playing fewer minutes per game. So while Jones did set a high bar, Duval is meeting it and then some. We have never had a freshman PG playing this well. Jones was close. Irving was a better scorer but not as good as a playmaker for others (33% fewer assists, substantially lower assist/turnover ratio).

JasonEvans
12-31-2017, 12:29 PM
Agreed, and going back to Bobby Hurley, who was very erratic and often criticized as being out of control as a freshman. Tyus set an unbelievably high bar, not just with being steady, but also last minute heroics and shot making.

There is at least a little bit of selective memory going on with regard to our memories of Tyus. He had his stinkers too.

Remember the loss to NC St in mid-January of 2015? Tyus was 1-6 from the field with 4 assists and 2 turnovers. In fact, Tyus had a run of 5 games in a row at the start of 2015 in which he averaged 4.2 points per game and his ATO ratio was barely 2-to-1. Yes, he was great most of the time, but it is not like he did not have his share of frustrating games too.

Furniture
12-31-2017, 12:41 PM
There is at least a little bit of selective memory going on with regard to our memories of Tyus. He had his stinkers too.

Remember the loss to NC St in mid-January of 2015? Tyus was 1-6 from the field with 4 assists and 2 turnovers. In fact, Tyus had a run of 5 games in a row at the start of 2015 in which he averaged 4.2 points per game and his ATO ratio was barely 2-to-1. Yes, he was great most of the time, but it is not like he did not have his share of frustrating games too.

Good point but how was the general mood in regards Tysus on this forum through his season at Duke? I don’t remember him getting criticized much at all.

CDu
12-31-2017, 12:52 PM
Good point but how was the general mood in regards Tysus on this forum through his season at Duke? I don’t remember him getting criticized much at all.

Jones’ reputation really didn’t take off until the game (Jan 31). Prior to that, he had his ups and downs, but the team hadn’t faced much elite comp up to that point. His reputation mostly built from there. But yes, a lot of his rep is with hindsight based in no small part to his coming up huge in that final game.

OZ
12-31-2017, 02:31 PM
Agreed, and going back to Bobby Hurley, who was very erratic and often criticized as being out of control as a freshman. Tyus set an unbelievably high bar, not just with being steady, but also last minute heroics and shot making.


I will always remember, on a national televised game, after Hurley (freshman year) made a wild out of control play, one of Duke fans' least favorite announcer said, "Coach K needs to sit him and get him under control." In a later press conference, Coach K was asked about that comment, to which he replied (and I am paraphrasing from memory), "You have to let Bobby play. He'll get that under control. To take that away from him would take away his genius."
After last night, I read a post that felt Trevon had played too fast... should have taken more time off the clock before shooting... before making plays. Then I watched K's presser and he said exactly the opposite... "In the last three minutes we didn't execute and the clock got to us; so, I told Trevon to 'just go...just go... we are not going to call any plays... just go.' And he did."

That's why it pays to use some measure of discretion when judging a player; because we don't always know what's going on.

OldPhiKap
12-31-2017, 03:02 PM
It is worth noting that Duval is currently outperforming Jones. More points per game with a better FG%; more assists per game; better assist/turnover ratio; more steals per game. All while playing fewer minutes per game. So while Jones did set a high bar, Duval is meeting it and then some. We have never had a freshman PG playing this well. Jones was close. Irving was a better scorer but not as good as a playmaker for others (33% fewer assists, substantially lower assist/turnover ratio).

Don’t let facts get in the way of a good story.

fuse
12-31-2017, 03:11 PM
After the Michigan State game, I realized the “problem” lay with me. My perception and expectations were interfering with enjoying what a fun player Trevon is to watch.

Not my place to criticize. I’m glad Trevon is a Blue Devil, and agree he is better than the credit some are giving him.

Go Duke!

duke96
12-31-2017, 03:14 PM
In a similar vein, I recall during one of the games earlier in the season the announcers said that during practice Duval had been making shot after shot from 3 point range. I don’t think i have seen this comment noted elsewhere, maybe I missed it. But I have been assuming after hearing it that the coaches think Trevon is a good outside shooter and they are encouraging him to keep shooting 3’s in game situations with the expectation that his percentages will come around. If that’s the case, and he is following what coaches are telling him to do (and it’s hard to imagine he isn’t), then it would be pretty unfair for folks on this board to criticize his taking outside shots. Nice to see him make an important one yesterday.

OldPhiKap
12-31-2017, 03:24 PM
In a similar vein, I recall during one of the games earlier in the season the announcers said that during practice Duval had been making shot after shot from 3 point range. I don’t think i have seen this comment noted elsewhere, maybe I missed it. But I have been assuming after hearing it that the coaches think Trevon is a good outside shooter and they are encouraging him to keep shooting 3’s in game situations with the expectation that his percentages will come around. If that’s the case, and he is following what coaches are telling him to do (and it’s hard to imagine he isn’t), then it would be pretty unfair for folks on this board to criticize his taking outside shots. Nice to see him make an important one yesterday.

I think this is an important point to keep in mind. If Tre was jacking up shots that K did not want him to take, he would get yanked quickly and would sit his butt on the bench.

MChambers
12-31-2017, 03:45 PM
In a similar vein, I recall during one of the games earlier in the season the announcers said that during practice Duval had been making shot after shot from 3 point range. I don’t think i have seen this comment noted elsewhere, maybe I missed it. But I have been assuming after hearing it that the coaches think Trevon is a good outside shooter and they are encouraging him to keep shooting 3’s in game situations with the expectation that his percentages will come around. If that’s the case, and he is following what coaches are telling him to do (and it’s hard to imagine he isn’t), then it would be pretty unfair for folks on this board to criticize his taking outside shots. Nice to see him make an important one yesterday.

I think the coaches are encouraging him to take open threes. It’s important to see if he can improve his shooting for later in the season.

In fact, for many of the strategy choices being made, including the man to man defense, I’m sure the coaches are hoping the team improves, giving it a higher ceiling at year end.

dukelifer
12-31-2017, 03:51 PM
In a similar vein, I recall during one of the games earlier in the season the announcers said that during practice Duval had been making shot after shot from 3 point range. I don’t think i have seen this comment noted elsewhere, maybe I missed it. But I have been assuming after hearing it that the coaches think Trevon is a good outside shooter and they are encouraging him to keep shooting 3’s in game situations with the expectation that his percentages will come around. If that’s the case, and he is following what coaches are telling him to do (and it’s hard to imagine he isn’t), then it would be pretty unfair for folks on this board to criticize his taking outside shots. Nice to see him make an important one yesterday.

It is a stretch to call him a good outside shooter. He can probably hit when he is set, squared to the basket and wide open. He had a a few of those yesterday and made 1. He has a lot of work to fix that shot and I don’t expect it to happen this year. His future depends on it- so he should be highly motivated.

NSDukeFan
12-31-2017, 03:55 PM
I think the coaches are encouraging him to take open threes. It’s important to see if he can improve his shooting for later in the season.

In fact, for many of the strategy choices being made, including the man to man defense, I’m sure the coaches are hoping the team improves, giving it a higher ceiling at year end.

I thought Ol’ Roy was the only coach who knew about this team building and coaching for the future thing. 😉

dukelifer
12-31-2017, 03:58 PM
It is worth noting that Duval is currently outperforming Jones. More points per game with a better FG%; more assists per game; better assist/turnover ratio; more steals per game. All while playing fewer minutes per game. So while Jones did set a high bar, Duval is meeting it and then some. We have never had a freshman PG playing this well. Jones was close. Irving was a better scorer but not as good as a playmaker for others (33% fewer assists, substantially lower assist/turnover ratio).

Other than shooting the 3, Duval is playing pretty well. The kid has great vision and can take it strong to the basket. He is a quiet player on the floor though - he rarely commands your attention or commands the game. It is a little odd- can’t really put my finger on it. That said- for a few minutes yesterday he was key. I suspect the coaches will be trying to get him to play that way the whole game.

OldPhiKap
12-31-2017, 04:01 PM
I thought Ol’ Roy was the only coach who knew about this team building and coaching for the future thing. 😉

You beat me to it. Gotta get up pretty early to outwork NSDukeFan.

Kedsy
12-31-2017, 04:21 PM
Other than shooting the 3, Duval is playing pretty well. The kid has great vision and can take it strong to the basket. He is a quiet player on the floor though - he rarely commands your attention or commands the game. It is a little odd- can’t really put my finger on it. That said- for a few minutes yesterday he was key. I suspect the coaches will be trying to get him to play that way the whole game.

He has played a lot better than "pretty well." As CDu pointed out, Trevon is playing better (so far) than any freshman PG in Duke history. It remains to be seen whether he can keep it up, or get even better (because I agree with those who say he can probably improve), but he's been by-and-large amazing and deserves more credit than some fans are giving him.

brevity
12-31-2017, 04:32 PM
You beat me to it. Gotta get up pretty early to outwork NSDukeFan.

Before sunrise, I'd imagine. The light hits Nova Scotia before anywhere in the US.


Why should people have to apologize for their opinions because of a great 4-minute stretch of a single game?

What if their opinion is "Why didn't Duke pursue Collin Sexton or Trae Young?" Those names come up in DBR Chat frequently. I don't expect an apology, but I wouldn't mind hearing "I'm sorry for thinking that recruiting is as simple as an either/or proposition."

OldPhiKap
12-31-2017, 04:39 PM
Before sunrise, I'd imagine. The light hits Nova Scotia before anywhere in the US.

Even this close to the winter solstice?

Wander
12-31-2017, 05:26 PM
We have never had a freshman PG playing this well. Jones was close.


As CDu pointed out, Trevon is playing better (so far) than any freshman PG in Duke history.

I think Tyus Jones was better, because Tyus did not have the gigantic weakness in his game that Trevon does of being a poor jump shooter. That statement of course has the benefit of hindsight and I reserve the right to change my mind as the season progresses, but as of right now I'd say Tyus was better.

Of course you can talk about Kyrie being better too, but hard to make that comparison because of the injury, sample size of games, etc.

Rich
12-31-2017, 05:35 PM
It is worth noting that Duval is currently outperforming Jones. More points per game with a better FG%; more assists per game; better assist/turnover ratio; more steals per game. All while playing fewer minutes per game. So while Jones did set a high bar, Duval is meeting it and then some. We have never had a freshman PG playing this well. Jones was close. Irving was a better scorer but not as good as a playmaker for others (33% fewer assists, substantially lower assist/turnover ratio).

There are plenty of stats geeks on this Board -- I am not one of them. I'd love to see a statistical comparison of freshman starting point guards in the K era (going back to Tommy Amaker) if someone (CDu) is up to the task.

CDu
12-31-2017, 06:17 PM
There are plenty of stats geeks on this Board -- I am not one of them. I'd love to see a statistical comparison of freshman starting point guards in the K era (going back to Tommy Amaker) if someone (CDu) is up to the task.

If I can find time, I will do it. I have a 3yo son that makes time challenging. But suffice to say that the list of impact freshman PGs at Duke under Coach K can probably be limited to Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Paulus, Irving, Jones, and Duval.

Dawkins and Irving scored more but passed less and much less effectively (Dawkins was really a SG playing PG on a bad team; Irving was largely a score-first guard and not a distributor). Williams scored a bit more and matched the assists but turned it over a ton more. Hurley had a bit higher assist rate (though that was in part due to pace of play being faster back then) but turned it over a ton more and wasn’t as good a scorer. Amaker, Duhon, and Paulus were complementary players who didn’t come close to Duval anywhere statistically as frosh.

Only Jones had a comparable stat profile, and he is reasonably close. But Duval is a bit better across the board statistically than Jones.

Rich
12-31-2017, 06:32 PM
If I can find time, I will do it. I have a 3yo son that makes time challenging. But suffice to say that the list of impact freshman PGs at Duke under Coach K can probably be limited to Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Paulus, Irving, Jones, and Duval.

Dawkins and Irving scored more but passed less and much less effectively (Dawkins was really a SG playing PG on a bad team; Irving was largely a score-first guard and not a distributor). Williams scored a bit more and matched the assists but turned it over a ton more. Hurley had a bit higher assist rate (though that was in part due to pace of play being faster back then) but turned it over a ton more and wasn’t as good a scorer. Amaker, Duhon, and Paulus were complementary players who didn’t come close to Duval anywhere statistically as frosh.

Only Jones had a comparable stat profile, and he is reasonably close. But Duval is a bit better across the board statistically than Jones.

I figured the best way to silence his critics was with raw statistics. There's no subjectivity there.

I'm a Duval fan, and only wish he would drive and dish more because I know he can. We've got two bigs with phenomenal hands who can catch those close to the basket passes and finish strong. We saw some of that towards the end of the Florida State game and I'd like to see more of it. I suppose being a credible threat from 3 point range would help because now defenders are playing the drive, but I still think there are drive-n-dish opportunities on the break that we don't necessarily take advantage of.

sagegrouse
12-31-2017, 06:38 PM
Before sunrise, I'd imagine. The light hits Nova Scotia before anywhere in the US.



What if their opinion is "Why didn't Duke pursue Collin Sexton or Trae Young?" Those names come up in DBR Chat frequently. I don't expect an apology, but I wouldn't mind hearing "I'm sorry for thinking that recruiting is as simple as an either/or proposition."


Even this close to the winter solstice?

Apparently, so. The sunrise this AM in Halifax, Nova Scotia was at 7:51 Atlantic time (or 6:51 Eastern time). The sunrise this AM in Miami was 7:07.

Skydog
12-31-2017, 06:49 PM
He has played a lot better than "pretty well." As CDu pointed out, Trevon is playing better (so far) than any freshman PG in Duke history. It remains to be seen whether he can keep it up, or get even better (because I agree with those who say he can probably improve), but he's been by-and-large amazing and deserves more credit than some fans are giving him.

I don't think it's that straightforward that we can declare Trevon is playing better than any freshman in Duke history. Having the best assist to turnover stats is a big deal for a point guard but there is more to it. Just comparing his stats so far to Tyus for his freshman season -

Tyus and Trevon were equal on:
turnover rate (17%)
fouls drawn (4%)

Trevon was better than Tyus on:
assist rate (31% vs 28%)
steals (3.3% vs 2.2%)
2pt % (56% vs 44%).

Tyus was better than Trevon on:
offensive efficiency (122 v 114)
true shooting % (58% vs 50%)
def rebounding (10% vs 5%)
fouls committed (1.4% vs 3.7%)
free throw rate (50% vs 31%)
ft % (89% vs 62%)
3pt % (38% vs 16%)

Tyus' stats were maintained over 39 games against a stronger strength of schedule since it included the ACC reg season, ACC tourney and six (!!) NCAA tourney games. Trevon may well do the same but only time will tell. Overall I think Trevon is more athletically gifted, a better driver and a better defender. But Tyus was more efficient, read the floor and game situations better and valued possessions more. So there are arguments to be made for both players. Personally I'm bothered more by mental mistakes than physical mistakes because the former are more easily avoided. That's why I get frustrated at Trevon's decision making at times but I don't deny his incredible talent.

luvdahops
12-31-2017, 07:03 PM
If I can find time, I will do it. I have a 3yo son that makes time challenging. But suffice to say that the list of impact freshman PGs at Duke under Coach K can probably be limited to Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Paulus, Irving, Jones, and Duval.

Dawkins and Irving scored more but passed less and much less effectively (Dawkins was really a SG playing PG on a bad team; Irving was largely a score-first guard and not a distributor). Williams scored a bit more and matched the assists but turned it over a ton more. Hurley had a bit higher assist rate (though that was in part due to pace of play being faster back then) but turned it over a ton more and wasn’t as good a scorer. Amaker, Duhon, and Paulus were complementary players who didn’t come close to Duval anywhere statistically as frosh.

Only Jones had a comparable stat profile, and he is reasonably close. But Duval is a bit better across the board statistically than Jones.

Excellent points. I think it is fair to say that Trevon is still adjusting to playing against opponents of reasonably comparable athleticism, and to playing with a cast of incredibly gifted teammates. We have seen him make necessary adjustments within games at times (e.g. FSU and Michigan State), but not always. It will likely be an ongoing process over the course of the season, and there will certainly be more ups and downs, but I really like what I've out of Trevon so far, and see no reason why he can't be the ACC's top overall point guard by the end of conference play.

I don't think either of these were necessarily issues for Tyus, who was probably never a guy who would count on blowing by or overpowering guys, even in high school, but also had developed a clear rep as a floor leader supreme through camps and the AAU circuit. In another thread, someone linked a piece from an NBA beat writer stating that Tyus's greatest strength is in always thinking a step ahead. I agree with that assessment. Trevon is a different sort of player, to be sure, but also much more gifted athletically, so if he can develop anywhere near Tyus's level of court awareness, the sky is the limit.

CDu
12-31-2017, 07:17 PM
I don't think it's that straightforward that we can declare Trevon is playing better than any freshman in Duke history. Having the best assist to turnover stats is a big deal for a point guard but there is more to it. Just comparing his stats so far to Tyus for his freshman season -

Tyus and Trevon were equal on:
turnover rate (17%)
fouls drawn (4%)

Trevon was better than Tyus on:
assist rate (31% vs 28%)
steals (3.3% vs 2.2%)
2pt % (56% vs 44%).

Tyus was better than Trevon on:
offensive efficiency (122 v 114)
true shooting % (58% vs 50%)
def rebounding (10% vs 5%)
fouls committed (1.4% vs 3.7%)
free throw rate (50% vs 31%)
ft % (89% vs 62%)
3pt % (38% vs 16%)

Tyus' stats were maintained over 39 games against a stronger strength of schedule since it included the ACC reg season, ACC tourney and six (!!) NCAA tourney games. Trevon may well do the same but only time will tell. Overall I think Trevon is more athletically gifted, a better driver and a better defender. But Tyus was more efficient, read the floor and game situations better and valued possessions more. So there are arguments to be made for both players. Personally I'm bothered more by mental mistakes than physical mistakes because the former are more easily avoided. That's why I get frustrated at Trevon's decision making at times but I don't deny his incredible talent.

Your lists aren’t really fairly presented. Several in the “Jones is better” category are part of the larger stat. So it is double-counting to list both. Listing either offensive efficiency or true shooting percentage would be appropriate. Adding FT rate, FT%, and 3 pt% is superfluous as those all contribute to the efficiency stats.

Also, Duval has a bit better turnover ratio: 15% vs 16%.

And I don’t consider the rebound rates as those aren’t PG traits and are much more team dependent. Jones played with a smaller team, thus defensive rebounding was a team activity. With Carter, Bagley, and DeLaurier scooping up so many boards, the guards just aren’t asked to do as much rebounding.

And I don’t think Duval’s issue has been weak competition. He has had some pretty darn good games against our good opponents. I don’t expect him to get worse. In fact, like Jones did, I would expect him to actually get better as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable with the speed and physicality of the college game.

WVDUKEFAN
12-31-2017, 07:33 PM
I was thrilled when this kid signed with us. I still am. He's not quite the pure shooter I thought he was. That clearly isn't his game. What he is, is a driver and distributor. And scoring machine when he heads to the bucket. The quicker he makes those thing the focus of his game, the better off we will be.

CDu
12-31-2017, 07:35 PM
Your lists aren’t really fairly presented. Several in the “Jones is better” category are part of the larger stat. So it is double-counting to list both. Listing either offensive efficiency or true shooting percentage would be appropriate. Adding FT rate, FT%, and 3 pt% is superfluous as those all contribute to the efficiency stats.

Also, Duval has a bit better turnover ratio: 15% vs 16%.

And I don’t consider the rebound rates as those aren’t PG traits and are much more team dependent. Jones played with a smaller team, thus defensive rebounding was a team activity. With Carter, Bagley, and DeLaurier scooping up so many boards, the guards just aren’t asked to do as much rebounding.

And I don’t think Duval’s issue has been weak competition. He has had some pretty darn good games against our good opponents. I don’t expect him to get worse. In fact, like Jones did, I would expect him to actually get better as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable with the speed and physicality of the college game.

But tegardless of whether or not you think Duval has been a better PG than Jones or vice versa, there really is no disputing that they are extremely close so far. So close that it is silly that Duval gets as much grief as he has. They have been, quite comfortably, the most efficient freshman PGs we have ever had, while also being on par with the most prolific of them.

Furniture
12-31-2017, 07:50 PM
The three that he got yesterday was a thing of beauty....swish.....

weezie
12-31-2017, 07:54 PM
What was that old chestnut...something about the three hardest positions in sports are 1) Yankee shortstop 2) USC quarterback (historical now) and 3) point guard at Duke?

Stemming from the time of Hurley?

Bay Area Duke Fan
12-31-2017, 09:14 PM
But tegardless of whether or not you think Duval has been a better PG than Jones or vice versa, there really is no disputing that they are extremely close so far. So close that it is silly that Duval gets as much grief as he has. They have been, quite comfortably, the most efficient freshman PGs we have ever had, while also being on par with the most prolific of them.

Tyus was MOP for the championship team in the 2015 Final Four. No credential is more important in evaluating the performance of a college point guard. Let’s hope that Duval can match that!

dukelifer
12-31-2017, 09:33 PM
He has played a lot better than "pretty well." As CDu pointed out, Trevon is playing better (so far) than any freshman PG in Duke history. It remains to be seen whether he can keep it up, or get even better (because I agree with those who say he can probably improve), but he's been by-and-large amazing and deserves more credit than some fans are giving him.

As I said- I don’t see amazing- but then again I put a higher premium on shooting the ball. In the few games I saw Kyrie handle and shoot- I saw amazing. When I watch Bagley on his pogo stick- I see amazing. When I see Trae Young bomb from 30 and make a layup in traffic - I see amazing. Trevon got better in the last game and maybe he gets to amazing by year’s end. He is not there yet for me- despite the numbers.

TNTDevil
12-31-2017, 09:41 PM
After the Michigan State game, I realized the “problem” lay with me. My perception and expectations were interfering with enjoying what a fun player Trevon is to watch.

Not my place to criticize. I’m glad Trevon is a Blue Devil, and agree he is better than the credit some are giving him.

Go Duke!Yeah. This is damn good.

The kid is fearless. I must have said it five, six times during that four minute stretch. Sometimes that burns him but, it won't for much longer.

I'll also scoot out on a limb and say that, before long, teams will rue leaving Trevon open at the three-point line.

Devilwin
12-31-2017, 10:06 PM
Will everyone who has ever doubted his abilities/worthiness/judgement please apologize now, and profusely.

Dude saved that game. His play at crunch time was magnificent and clutch AF.

Agree 100%. Other than the fact he's a poor three point shooter, he is a fearless driver, and an excellent on ball defender. Not to mention the best passing guard in the ACC.

duke96
12-31-2017, 10:26 PM
It is a stretch to call him a good outside shooter. He can probably hit when he is set, squared to the basket and wide open. He had a a few of those yesterday and made 1. He has a lot of work to fix that shot and I don’t expect it to happen this year. His future depends on it- so he should be highly motivated.

You may attend more practices than I do (which would be the case if you attend any practices!). But the comment from those who have observed firsthand that he is shooting them really well in practice I found quite interesting. Anyhow, would be super helpful if he does in fact find his shot come later in the year. Together with some more AOC and of course Wendell and MBIII chipping in with Grayson and Trent ... we’ll be an outside shooting juggernaut come March!

dukelifer
12-31-2017, 11:53 PM
You may attend more practices than I do (which would be the case if you attend any practices!). But the comment from those who have observed firsthand that he is shooting them really well in practice I found quite interesting. Anyhow, would be super helpful if he does in fact find his shot come later in the year. Together with some more AOC and of course Wendell and MBIII chipping in with Grayson and Trent ... we’ll be an outside shooting juggernaut come March!

No practices for me. Regardless it is all about making them in games. Trevon knows this and sometimes when you miss - players can overthink shooting. Hard to fix mechanics mid season but we shall see. If he continues to pass, limit turnovers, gets more steals and makes some threes because teams lay off- Duke will be fine. If would prefer that he focus on free throw shooting. That may be more critical.

Skydog
01-01-2018, 01:57 AM
Your lists aren’t really fairly presented. Several in the “Jones is better” category are part of the larger stat. So it is double-counting to list both. Listing either offensive efficiency or true shooting percentage would be appropriate. Adding FT rate, FT%, and 3 pt% is superfluous as those all contribute to the efficiency stats.

Also, Duval has a bit better turnover ratio: 15% vs 16%.

And I don’t consider the rebound rates as those aren’t PG traits and are much more team dependent. Jones played with a smaller team, thus defensive rebounding was a team activity. With Carter, Bagley, and DeLaurier scooping up so many boards, the guards just aren’t asked to do as much rebounding.

And I don’t think Duval’s issue has been weak competition. He has had some pretty darn good games against our good opponents. I don’t expect him to get worse. In fact, like Jones did, I would expect him to actually get better as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable with the speed and physicality of the college game.


I get what you are saying but I don't think I was unfair. Yes I listed both composite measures as well as constituent stats but all of them support my point that claiming Duval is playing better than any freshman pg in Duke history is at best debatable. Personally I would say it's a bit of a stretch at this point.

As far as particulars:
I disagree with you about ignoring guards rebounding rates - guards who get rebounds are valuable. You are right that the difference in rebounding rates may be - and likely is - in part attributed to surrounding personnel. But to some extent that's true of most stats. For example the same kind of argument could be made in reverse about Duval's higher assist rate - he has two two big men under the basket to feed who both take a lot of shots and both convert 60-70%. Also I would note that Matt Jones, Quinn Cook and Grayson Allen all played with the same teammates and none of them got rebounds at quite the rate that Tyus did, so his 10% def rebounding rate wasn't all due to surrounding personnel.

As far as which player faced the tougher strength of schedule - Duval has played well in some tough games but he's only faced one league road game which didn't go well. Also 50% of the games we've played against so far have been ranked 140+. The early season patsy stats will be much more diluted later in the season.

Finally I don't know what you are saying about the difference in their turnover %'s - Kenpom lists them both at an identical 17.4%. Maybe we are looking at different stat sources?

dukelifer
01-01-2018, 08:16 AM
But tegardless of whether or not you think Duval has been a better PG than Jones or vice versa, there really is no disputing that they are extremely close so far. So close that it is silly that Duval gets as much grief as he has. They have been, quite comfortably, the most efficient freshman PGs we have ever had, while also being on par with the most prolific of them.

You say it is silly that Duval is getting grief but I suspect almost all Freshman point guards have gotten some grief - perhaps other than Irving- for their inconsistent play. I would imagine that if Duval is the point guard that leads Duke to three final fours and wins two as did Hurley or wins the tourney with an MOP - I believe our perception of Duval would change in hindsight. If Duval is coming back then I am seeing the makings of an excellent point guard. But we get one year of Duval. He is a good ACC player but I strongly doubt he is first team material right now. Would he possibly be ACC player of the year or national player of the year if he hung around for 3 years- perhaps - but we only get him this year. Duval’s play against Fla State is encouraging. If he turns it on at the end of every ACC game that leads to Duke victories he will be a Duke legend. Time will tell.

CDu
01-01-2018, 08:36 AM
You say it is silly that Duval is getting grief but I suspect almost all Freshman point guards have gotten some grief - perhaps other than Irving- for their inconsistent play. I would imagine that if Duval is the point guard that leads Duke to three final fours and wins two as did Hurley or wins the tourney with an MOP - I believe our perception of Duval would change in hindsight. If Duval is coming back then I am seeing the makings of an excellent point guard. But we get one year of Duval. He is a good ACC player but I strongly doubt he is first team material right now. Would he possibly be ACC player of the year or national player of the year if he hung around for 3 years- perhaps - but we only get him this year. Duval’s play against Fla State is encouraging. If he turns it on at the end of every ACC game that leads to Duke victories he will be a Duke legend. Time will tell.

He is definitely not first-team All-ACC right now. Nor has any Duke frosh PG been. That should hardly be reason for grief. I would say he has a pretty reasonable case for one of the All-ACC teams right now. He leads the ACC in assists per game, and is 4th in steals per game. He has scored or assisted for more points than anyone but Farrell and Bowman.

I don’t recall Tyus Jones ever getting this much grief. And his team was playing worse at this point in the season.

freshmanjs
01-01-2018, 08:46 AM
And his team was playing worse at this point in the season.

I don't think this part is true. On Jan 1, 2015 -- Duke was 12-0. Recognizing that the ACC season started early this year, we can look at where Duke was after 2 ACC games in 2015 -- 14-0. First 2 ACC games included a road win over Wake by 8 points and a 22 point win over BC at home. It's true that we hit a 2 game skid in games 3 and 4 of the ACC schedule, but we don't know yet how this year's team will do in that stretch. Also worth noting that the bad stretch in 2015 coincided with Winslow's injury.

Duke76
01-01-2018, 08:47 AM
If I can find time, I will do it. I have a 3yo son that makes time challenging. But suffice to say that the list of impact freshman PGs at Duke under Coach K can probably be limited to Dawkins, Amaker, Hurley, Williams, Duhon, Paulus, Irving, Jones, and Duval.

Dawkins and Irving scored more but passed less and much less effectively (Dawkins was really a SG playing PG on a bad team; Irving was largely a score-first guard and not a distributor). Williams scored a bit more and matched the assists but turned it over a ton more. Hurley had a bit higher assist rate (though that was in part due to pace of play being faster back then) but turned it over a ton more and wasn’t as good a scorer. Amaker, Duhon, and Paulus were complementary players who didn’t come close to Duval anywhere statistically as frosh.

Only Jones had a comparable stat profile, and he is reasonably close. But Duval is a bit better across the board statistically than Jones.

I'd like to see the stats re above as well a freshman or beyond, but just on the eye test as a freshman, I'd agree with above...we spend a lot time on this board talking about weaknesses of certain players but other than his 3 point shooting he is all positive for us. He won that game for us at crunch time. He drives the middle, dishes is a speed demon on the break and the best thing is it's early in the season and K, Nolan and John have plenty of time to continue working with him as well

dukelifer
01-01-2018, 08:52 AM
He is definitely not first-team All-ACC right now. Nor has any Duke frosh PG been. That should hardly be reason for grief. I would say he has a pretty reasonable case for one of the All-ACC teams right now. He leads the ACC in assists per game, and is 4th in steals per game. He has scored or assisted for more points than anyone but Farrell and Bowman.

I don’t recall Tyus Jones ever getting this much grief. And his team was playing worse at this point in the season.
I still believe most of us saw Jones as a multi year player. Any brilliance we saw in his Freshman play was amplified by the belief that we would have him for more years. If you are telling me that Duval is sticking around then I am perceiving a different trajectory. Duval is getting grief because I don’t recall another point guard as being one and done- perhaps other than Irving and I am not sure even he was a sure thing until we saw the magic of his ball handling. Duval has played well but has not wowed enough yet for me to see a special player at the next level- next year. I think that is the source of the perceived greater grief.

CDu
01-01-2018, 08:53 AM
I don't think this part is true. On Jan 1, 2015 -- Duke was 12-0. Recognizing that the ACC season started early this year, we can look at where Duke was after 2 ACC games in 2015 -- 14-0. First 2 ACC games included a road win over Wake by 8 points and a 22 point win over BC at home. It's true that we hit a 2 game skid in games 3 and 4 of the ACC schedule, but we don't know yet how this year's team will do in that stretch. Also worth noting that the bad stretch in 2015 coincided with Winslow's injury.

Fair point. Though I think that our preseason schedule was actually easier that year. So I don’t think we are playing worse so far this year.

CDu
01-01-2018, 08:58 AM
I still believe most of us saw Jones as a multi year player. Any brilliance we saw in his Freshman play was amplified by the belief that we would have him for more years. If you are telling me that Duval is sticking around then I am perceiving a different trajectory. Duval is getting grief because I don’t recall another point guard as being one and done- perhaps other than Irving and I am not sure even he was a sure thing until we saw the magic of his ball handling. Duval has played well but has not wowed enough yet for me to see a special player at the next level- next year. I think that is the source of the perceived greater grief.

That may be, but it seems like a weird reason to be more critical. The one-and-done era exists. Why should Duval - who is playing at worst roughly as well as Jones - be given more grief during the season simply because he is expected to go pro this year? The season is a singular entity. And Duval is playing REALLY well! Folks have even been critical of him during his monster games. It is just weird.

slower
01-01-2018, 08:59 AM
On this trajectory, he could be The Man come March.

Doubtful, as long as Bagley is on the floor.

slower
01-01-2018, 09:00 AM
Will everyone who has ever doubted his abilities/worthiness/judgement please apologize now, and profusely..

Um - no. People can just as easily cherry-pick in the other direction.

Don't get me wrong - I really like Duval. But he's got some work to do.

sagegrouse
01-01-2018, 09:05 AM
I still believe most of us saw Jones as a multi year player. Any brilliance we saw in his Freshman play was amplified by the belief that we would have him for more years. If you are telling me that Duval is sticking around then I am perceiving a different trajectory. Duval is getting grief because I don’t recall another point guard as being one and done- perhaps other than Irving and I am not sure even he was a sure thing until we saw the magic of his ball handling. Duval has played well but has not wowed enough yet for me to see a special player at the next level- next year. I think that is the source of the perceived greater grief.

Let me say it differently: a one-year player is more of a mercenary, and we hope for immediate results, or -- dare I say -- demand immediate results. We have more patience with a four-year player, and recognize that training and experience are important -- and usually necessary. Thus, we are very happy with the play and court time of Alex O'Connell, but measuring Trevon Duval against unrealistic expectations.

dukelifer
01-01-2018, 09:05 AM
That may be, but it seems like a weird reason to be more critical. The one-and-done era exists. Why should Duval - who is playing at worst roughly as well as Jones - be given more grief during the season simply because he is expected to go pro this year? The season is a singular entity. And Duval is playing REALLY well! Folks have even been critical of him during his monster games. It is just weird.

Most fans are not rational or use statistical analysis to form judgements on players. They bring certain biases to their perceptions. Duval is one and done. For most fans that brings a sense of critical analysis of the players game that is comparing them to pros or those about to become pros and not other Freshman. Duval has to match sophomore Jay Williams - even though Williams left later- or even senior Nolan Smith. That may not be fair but it is the reality. Top draft picks are viewed more critically than lower draft picks. We have our biases that are not usually rational.

dukelifer
01-01-2018, 09:10 AM
Let me say it differently: a one-year player is more of a mercenary, and we hope for immediate results, or -- dare I say -- demand immediate results. We have more patience with a four-year player, and recognize that training and experience are important -- and usually necessary. Thus, we are very happy with the play and court time of Alex O'Connell, but measuring Trevon Duval against unrealistic expectations.

Yes- life in the big leagues. Lonzo Ball’s dad raised the expectations on his son and he is expected to be Magic this year. All part of growing as a player. All NBA stars get grief at some point. Perhaps this is early training for Duval.

lotusland
01-01-2018, 09:12 AM
Yeah. This is damn good.

The kid is fearless. I must have said it five, six times during that four minute stretch. Sometimes that burns him but, it won't for much longer.

I'll also scoot out on a limb and say that, before long, teams will rue leaving Trevon open at the three-point line.

It would be awesome if Trevon could draw the defense out further when he’s handling the ball but I doubt it. He’s a poor free throw shooter and he doesn’t have good form or confidence out there. He’s not the first Duke PG with limited range or in the NBA for that matter. Billy King and Rondo had a pretty good careers without being a perimeter threat. It’s a more exaggerated weakness this year without a reliable stretch 4 and with Trent being streaky. I don’t think our opponents are going to guard Duval on the 3 point line and beyond this year but Duke can still mitigate that weakness by playing fast and thru our bigs in the half court. As others have pointed out, scoring really hasn’t been a problem so Tre can have a huge year by defending, penetrating and distributing the ball.

OldPhiKap
01-01-2018, 09:16 AM
It would be awesome if Trevon could draw the defense out further when he’s handling the ball but I doubt it. He’s a poor free throw shooter and he doesn’t have good form or confidence out there. He’s not the first Duke PG with limited range or in the NBA for that matter. Billy King and Rondo had a pretty good careers without being a perimeter threat. It’s a more exaggerated weakness this year without a reliable stretch 4 and with Trent being streaky. I don’t think our opponents are going to guard Duval on the 3 point line and beyond this year but Duke can still mitigate that weakness by playing fast and thru our bigs in the half court. As others have pointed out, scoring really hasn’t been a problem so Tre can have a huge year by defending, penetrating and distributing the ball.

Billy King was a small forward, although the point guards with which he played (Tommy Amaker, Quinn Snyder) were not known for great outside shots either. But yeah, Billy was not on the floor for his offensive prowess.

If Tre plays strong defense and distributes the ball well, he’s doing his job.

CDu
01-01-2018, 09:19 AM
Let me say it differently: a one-year player is more of a mercenary, and we hope for immediate results, or -- dare I say -- demand immediate results. We have more patience with a four-year player, and recognize that training and experience are important -- and usually necessary. Thus, we are very happy with the play and court time of Alex O'Connell, but measuring Trevon Duval against unrealistic expectations.

Which is silly, in my opinion. And inconsistent. For example, folks aren’t bashing Trent, who is likely one and done too. We should assume all freshmen starters are one-and-done. Heck, even non-starters should be considered one-and-done. Jackson and Giles went pro after all.

Just seems silly and unfair to hold Duval to a higher standard than other Duke freshman PGs.


Most fans are not rational or use statistical analysis to form judgements on players. They bring certain biases to their perceptions. Duval is one and done. For most fans that brings a sense of critical analysis of the players game that is comparing them to pros or those about to become pros and not other Freshman. Duval has to match sophomore Jay Williams - even though Williams left later- or even senior Nolan Smith. That may not be fair but it is the reality. Top draft picks are viewed more critically than lower draft picks. We have our biases that are not usually rational.

As long as folks can admit their irrational criticism is wrong, unfair, and irrational. But I don’t think most would admit that.

azzefkram
01-01-2018, 09:20 AM
I disagree with you about ignoring guards rebounding rates - guards who get rebounds are valuable. You are right that the difference in rebounding rates may be - and likely is - in part attributed to surrounding personnel. But to some extent that's true of most stats. For example the same kind of argument could be made in reverse about Duval's higher assist rate - he has two two big men under the basket to feed who both take a lot of shots and both convert 60-70%. Also I would note that Matt Jones, Quinn Cook and Grayson Allen all played with the same teammates and none of them got rebounds at quite the rate that Tyus did, so his 10% def rebounding rate wasn't all due to surrounding personnel.

As far as which player faced the tougher strength of schedule - Duval has played well in some tough games but he's only faced one league road game which didn't go well. Also 50% of the games we've played against so far have been ranked 140+. The early season patsy stats will be much more diluted later in the season.

Who you are on the court with has a much bigger impact than you are letting on. Tyus played with a poor rebounder (Jah), a good rebounder (Justise), a dreadful rebounder (Matt, though he did have a penchant for grabbing a rebound in big spots) and a good rebounder (Quinn). Trevon plays with 2 elite rebounders (MBIII and Wendell), a so-so rebounder (Gary, if you lump him in the 3 spot) and an ok rebounder (Grayson). There is only one ball to rebound. Also, you can't discount scheme. With the starting five in 2015, it wouldn't surprise me if Coach K had the guards crashing the boards to help with rebounding. Conversely, with 2 elite rebounders in 2018, I expect Coach K is releasing the guards to start the fast break. We are playing at a fast pace this season.

I don't think you would get very far trying to reverse the argument with respect to Trevon's assist rate. Yes, Trevon gets to dump it down to 2 big men but Tyus had Jah plus for a good portion of the year he also had 3 excellent 3pt shooters to dish to. Trevon has one.

With respect to patsies, Tyus played 5 of his first 14 games against team ranked 250 or worse. Trevon has played one. I also don't think you can assume Trevon's stats will be much more diluted later in the season. Trevon can improve as the season wears on and the very young team he is surrounded with can learn to play better together.

You have conveniently ignored defense. Trevon is worlds better than Tyus on the defensive end.

At the end of the day they are both excellent PGs and we are fortunate to have them play for Duke.

camion
01-01-2018, 09:34 AM
Which is silly, in my opinion. And inconsistent. For example, folks aren’t bashing Trent, who is likely one and done too. We should assume all freshmen starters are one-and-done. Heck, even non-starters should be considered one-and-done. Jackson and Giles went pro after all.

Just seems silly and unfair to hold Duval to a higher standard than other Duke freshman PGs.

As long as folks can admit their irrational criticism is wrong, unfair, and irrational. But I don’t think most would admit that.

I will happily admit that their irrational criticism is wrong, unfair and irrational.


Oh wait, did you mean MY irrational criticism? How dare you! :mad:

sagegrouse
01-01-2018, 09:48 AM
Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
Let me say it differently: a one-year player is more of a mercenary, and we hope for immediate results, or -- dare I say -- demand immediate results. We have more patience with a four-year player, and recognize that training and experience are important -- and usually necessary. Thus, we are very happy with the play and court time of Alex O'Connell, but measuring Trevon Duval against unrealistic expectations.


Which is silly, in my opinion. And inconsistent. For example, folks aren’t bashing Trent, who is likely one and done too. We should assume all freshmen starters are one-and-done. Heck, even non-starters should be considered one-and-done. Jackson and Giles went pro after all.

Just seems silly and unfair to hold Duval to a higher standard than other Duke freshman PGs.
I criticized his play for the first 35 minutes on Saturday (although I regret the adjective I used). He was sitting on the bench nursing foul problems. I don't think it's unfair to be disappointed. But, boy, did he make up for it the final five minutes!!!


As long as folks can admit their irrational criticism is wrong, unfair, and irrational. But I don’t think most would admit that.
That Pratt Engineering is creating unrealistic expectations. I still maintain, even as a one-time statistician, that "informed eyeballs" are rational, even if subjective, and often better than the stats.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'I remember an ancient Hank Iba watching a Duke game in person 25 years ago. He told K before the game started, "that #33 is a really good player," based only on warm-ups and not having any idea who Grant Hill was'

House G
01-01-2018, 09:58 AM
I think Tyus Jones was better, because Tyus did not have the gigantic weakness in his game that Trevon does of being a poor jump shooter. That statement of course has the benefit of hindsight and I reserve the right to change my mind as the season progresses, but as of right now I'd say Tyus was better.

Of course you can talk about Kyrie being better too, but hard to make that comparison because of the injury, sample size of games, etc.

Acknowledging that he played a limited number of games, I believe Irving was the best freshman pg in Duke history. In my opinion, he was the best player as a freshman on the defending national championship team that included Singler, N. Smith, Kelly, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Curry, Dawkins. Look, I like Duval but, given a choice, I’d rather have Irving based on what I’ve seen thus far. I believe there may be a Lloyd Bentsen quote in there somewhere.

CDu
01-01-2018, 10:11 AM
I criticized his play for the first 35 minutes on Saturday (although I regret the adjective I used). He was sitting on the bench nursing foul problems. I don't think it's unfair to be disappointed. But, boy, did he make up for it the final five minutes!!!


That Pratt Engineering is creating unrealistic expectations. I still maintain, even as a one-time statistician, that "informed eyeballs" are rational, even if subjective, and often better than the stats.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'I remember an ancient Hank Iba watching a Duke game in person 25 years ago. He told K before the game started, "that #33 is a really good player," based only on warm-ups and not having any idea who Grant Hill was'

To be fair, Duval was certainly having a tough day for the majority of it. The foul trouble had taken him out of any rhythm, and he was not making any positive impact. Being critical of that stretch is totally reasonable. He was playing poorly. He just had an absolutely monstrous finish to end up with a very good total game (16 points, 4 assists, 1 turnover).

It is the criticism he gets for games in which he plays well but has a moment or two of poor play that I find ridiculous, not the criticism of Saturday’s first 35 minutes.

CDu
01-01-2018, 10:24 AM
I think Tyus Jones was better, because Tyus did not have the gigantic weakness in his game that Trevon does of being a poor jump shooter. That statement of course has the benefit of hindsight and I reserve the right to change my mind as the season progresses, but as of right now I'd say Tyus was better.

Of course you can talk about Kyrie being better too, but hard to make that comparison because of the injury, sample size of games, etc.

Jones was unquestionably more polished. But Duval makes up for a lack of polish with unbelievable athleticism. And it isn’t that he doesn’t have skills. He has great court vision and passing skills, and a pretty darn advanced dribbling toolkit (probably second only to Irving in that regard). He can’t shoot, and he is still working on when to be aggressive and when not to. But his athletic ability lets him do things that no other PG in Duke history besides maybe JWill can do. And he is more polished as a PG than JWill was.

I think a lot of the bias against Duval is that he is so unlike anything we have seen before at Duke, and folks don’t know what to make of it. His athleticism and length are perhaps unparalleled at Duke. His court vision is among the best ever as well. And despite seeming to be on the verge of chaos at times, he has been as good as anyone ain the assist/turnover department. It can be confusing, and I think because he is different folks are struggling to accept what he is. They don’t see what they expect to see as the prototypical Duke PG, and thus magnify any of his mistakes. They have deified Jones (who IS the quintessential Duke PG) in their minds, despite the fact that Jones also had his share of warts (mostly defensive) and clunker games, and struggle to accept that Duval is playing PG on par with, if not better than, Jones did. Duval is just doing it in an unfamiliar way, and folks are struggling with that.

Just my opinion, of course.

jv001
01-01-2018, 10:27 AM
To be fair, Duval was certainly having a tough day for the majority of it. The foul trouble had taken him out of any rhythm, and he was not making any positive impact. Being critical of that stretch is totally reasonable. He was playing poorly. He just had an absolutely monstrous finish to end up with a very good total game (16 points, 4 assists, 1 turnover).

It is the criticism he gets for games in which he plays well but has a moment or two of poor play that I find ridiculous, not the criticism of Saturday’s first 35 minutes.

Very fair take on Tre. I believe that Tre's erratic play is based on in-experience at this level and not on his lack of basketball IQ. He just needs to play aggressive without fouling. Especially at the beginning of games because when he's out of the lineup, our defense really takes a hit. He has the talent to be one of Duke's best point guards. I'm looking forward to seeing the improvement he makes. Work on that outside shot young man. GoDuke!

jv001
01-01-2018, 10:32 AM
Jones was unquestionably more polished. But Duval makes up for a lack of polish with unbelievable athleticism. And it isn’t that he doesn’t have skills. He has great court vision and passing skills, and a pretty darn advanced dribbling toolkit (probably second only to Irving in that regard). He can’t shoot, and he is still working on when to be aggressive and when not to. But his athletic ability lets him do things that no other PG in Duke history besides maybe JWill can do. And he is more polished as a PG than JWill was.

I think a lot of the bias against Duval is that he is so unlike anything we have seen before at Duke, and folks don’t know what to make of it. His athleticism and length are perhaps unparalleled at Duke. His court vision is among the best ever as well. And despite seeming to be on the verge of chaos at times, he has been as good as anyone ain the assist/turnover department. It can be confusing, and I think because he is different folks are struggling to accept what he is. They don’t see what they expect to see as the prototypical Duke PG, and thus magnify any of his mistakes. They have deified Jones (who IS the quintessential Duke PG) in their minds, despite the fact that Jones also had his share of warts (mostly defensive) and clunker games, and struggle to accept that Duval is playing PG on par with, if not better than, Jones did. Duval is just doing it in an unfamiliar way, and folks are struggling with that.

Just my opinion, of course.

Reminds me of Billy King when he was forced to play point guard back in the day. We would yell, "NO Billy" when he let one fly at the basket. I also remember in one of the former Dukie games that took place before the actual game, Billy made two or three 3s in a row and the crowd went nuts. GoDuke!

CDu
01-01-2018, 10:43 AM
Acknowledging that he played a limited number of games, I believe Irving was the best freshman pg in Duke history. In my opinion, he was the best player as a freshman on the defending national championship team that included Singler, N. Smith, Kelly, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Curry, Dawkins. Look, I like Duval but, given a choice, I’d rather have Irving based on what I’ve seen thus far. I believe there may be a Lloyd Bentsen quote in there somewhere.

I would LOVE to have seen Duval play with that 2011 team. To some degree, this year’s roster composition hurts Duval’s effectiveness. Imagine him running a pick-and-roll with a Plumlee while Kelly, Singler, and Smith are spaced on the 3pt line leaving no help defense in the lane. Imagine him running a pick-and-pop with Kelly. Or him running the break with three shooters and a trailing Plumlee.

Don’t get me wrong. This year’s team is awesome. But it isn’t quite tailored to Duval’s strengths. The two bigs congest the lane, which hurts Duval’s drives. The lack of 3pt threats compounds this. That he is putting up such impressive numbers just shows how gifted he is.

Furniture
01-01-2018, 10:45 AM
Let me say it differently: a one-year player is more of a mercenary, and we hope for immediate results, or -- dare I say -- demand immediate results. We have more patience with a four-year player, and recognize that training and experience are important -- and usually necessary. Thus, we are very happy with the play and court time of Alex O'Connell, but measuring Trevon Duval against unrealistic expectations.

Mercenary? Thats a bit strong isn’t it? Anyway, as I said earlier in the thread there wasn’t a lot of patience should for Quinn in his freshman year and he was a 4 year player......

sagegrouse
01-01-2018, 11:15 AM
Mercenary? Thats a bit strong isn’t it? Anyway, as I said earlier in the thread there wasn’t a lot of patience should for Quinn in his freshman year and he was a 4 year player...

So my use of the Queen's English is again getting ripped apart by someone who doesn't know the proper use or pronunciation of the letter "z." I am characterizing an attitude that exists and not necessarily expressing my personal views.

curtis325
01-01-2018, 11:25 AM
My eyeball test sez TD is awesome. I don’t need no stinkin’ advanced stats to appreciate TD’s game. Comparisons with former players are fun, but I really don’t care who was marginally better. Why, I remember a time (seems like it must have been long, long ago) when there was nearly-constant wailing and gnashing-of-teeth because Duke didn’t have a point guard. Could that have been last year?

Now the Blue Devils have a top-notch point guard and I, for one, intend to enjoy the journey. I’ve already enjoyed all the games (even the BC game—it was exciting to watch).

Yours truly,

Pollyanna

Furniture
01-01-2018, 12:14 PM
So my use of the Queen's English is again getting ripped apart by someone who doesn't know the proper use or pronunciation of the letter "z." I am characterizing an attitude that exists and not necessarily expressing my personal views.

If you felt that way I didn’t mean it like that. Happy New Year.

dukelifer
01-01-2018, 12:17 PM
Which is silly, in my opinion. And inconsistent. For example, folks aren’t bashing Trent, who is likely one and done too. We should assume all freshmen starters are one-and-done. Heck, even non-starters should be considered one-and-done. Jackson and Giles went pro after all.

Just seems silly and unfair to hold Duval to a higher standard than other Duke freshman PGs.



As long as folks can admit their irrational criticism is wrong, unfair, and irrational. But I don’t think most would admit that.

Certainly Giles got a pass. Jackson was not expected to leave but you are right- any player can go pro now. Your point about Trent is a good one. I hold out that he is likely to stay but that too is irrational. Perhaps folks focus their grief on one player at a time. I certainly thought Ingram was not ready for prime time early in the season but he improved over the season. I am expecting similar improvement for all the Freshman. I still am holding on to my assessment that Duval is playing “pretty well” right now. I am not ready to say great. I will leave that for later in the season ;)

sagegrouse
01-01-2018, 12:47 PM
If you felt that way I didn’t mean it like that. Happy New Year.

Naw, just a tease in return -- happy new year.

Wander
01-01-2018, 01:37 PM
Jones was unquestionably more polished. But Duval makes up for a lack of polish with unbelievable athleticism. And it isn’t that he doesn’t have skills. He has great court vision and passing skills, and a pretty darn advanced dribbling toolkit (probably second only to Irving in that regard). He can’t shoot, and he is still working on when to be aggressive and when not to. But his athletic ability lets him do things that no other PG in Duke history besides maybe JWill can do. And he is more polished as a PG than JWill was.

I think a lot of the bias against Duval is that he is so unlike anything we have seen before at Duke, and folks don’t know what to make of it. His athleticism and length are perhaps unparalleled at Duke. His court vision is among the best ever as well. And despite seeming to be on the verge of chaos at times, he has been as good as anyone ain the assist/turnover department. It can be confusing, and I think because he is different folks are struggling to accept what he is. They don’t see what they expect to see as the prototypical Duke PG, and thus magnify any of his mistakes. They have deified Jones (who IS the quintessential Duke PG) in their minds, despite the fact that Jones also had his share of warts (mostly defensive) and clunker games, and struggle to accept that Duval is playing PG on par with, if not better than, Jones did. Duval is just doing it in an unfamiliar way, and folks are struggling with that.

Just my opinion, of course.

That's fair and well thought out. I just think you're glossing over Tyus' superior shooting skills a little bit by simply putting them into a category of "polished." And it's not just 3 point shooting - Duval's 62% free throw shooting is really not ideal for a point guard. To me, the shooting puts Tyus ahead, even though Duval is extremely good at lots of other things as you point. But reasonable minds can differ.

BandAlum83
01-01-2018, 02:12 PM
To be fair, Duval was certainly having a tough day for the majority of it. The foul trouble had taken him out of any rhythm, and he was not making any positive impact. Being critical of that stretch is totally reasonable. He was playing poorly. He just had an absolutely monstrous finish to end up with a very good total game (16 points, 4 assists, 1 turnover).

It is the criticism he gets for games in which he plays well but has a moment or two of poor play that I find ridiculous, not the criticism of Saturday’s first 35 minutes.

14 & 3 in the last 5 minutes. Amazing

CDu
01-01-2018, 02:17 PM
That's fair and well thought out. I just think you're glossing over Tyus' superior shooting skills a little bit by simply putting them into a category of "polished." And it's not just 3 point shooting - Duval's 62% free throw shooting is really not ideal for a point guard. To me, the shooting puts Tyus ahead, even though Duval is extremely good at lots of other things as you point. But reasonable minds can differ.

Well, the “polished” was referring mostly to shooting, as that is the main thing Jones did better. The rest of it offensively they are largely a wash or Duval is a bit better. The rest of the “polish” has allowed Jones to mostly keep up in other areas offensively in spite of Duval’s athletic edge.

ncexnyc
01-01-2018, 02:41 PM
Just curious, what would the conversation be like if TD's last 5 minutes were his first 5 minutes?

I'd also like to say that all turnovers aren't created equal and maybe that has led to some of the negative feelings directed towards TD.

And for those with short memories or who weren't here during Kyrie's time at Duke, he did indeed catch a lot of grief from people who whined about him not passing enough.

Anyhow, this board can be great with the great statistics analysis that often occurs here, but at times we can be downright silly with the nit-picking that takes place here all to often.

Enjoy the ride and remember that every season is something completely new and different from what has transpired previously. Happy New Year to everyone.

uh_no
01-01-2018, 02:49 PM
Just curious, what would the conversation be like if TD's last 5 minutes were his first 5 minutes?


you'd hear all about how we got ahead and then got lazy and were lucky to hold on.

Furniture
01-01-2018, 02:54 PM
Naw, just a tease in return -- happy new year.

Almost broke one of my New Years resolutions.

1) No comments that lead infractions from DBR moderaters.
2) Be a good DBR citizen by not arguing with fellow DBR posters.

Skydog
01-01-2018, 03:12 PM
Who you are on the court with has a much bigger impact than you are letting on. Tyus played with a poor rebounder (Jah), a good rebounder (Justise), a dreadful rebounder (Matt, though he did have a penchant for grabbing a rebound in big spots) and a good rebounder (Quinn). Trevon plays with 2 elite rebounders (MBIII and Wendell), a so-so rebounder (Gary, if you lump him in the 3 spot) and an ok rebounder (Grayson). There is only one ball to rebound. Also, you can't discount scheme. With the starting five in 2015, it wouldn't surprise me if Coach K had the guards crashing the boards to help with rebounding. Conversely, with 2 elite rebounders in 2018, I expect Coach K is releasing the guards to start the fast break. We are playing at a fast pace this season.

I don't think you would get very far trying to reverse the argument with respect to Trevon's assist rate. Yes, Trevon gets to dump it down to 2 big men but Tyus had Jah plus for a good portion of the year he also had 3 excellent 3pt shooters to dish to. Trevon has one.

With respect to patsies, Tyus played 5 of his first 14 games against team ranked 250 or worse. Trevon has played one. I also don't think you can assume Trevon's stats will be much more diluted later in the season. Trevon can improve as the season wears on and the very young team he is surrounded with can learn to play better together.

You have conveniently ignored defense. Trevon is worlds better than Tyus on the defensive end.

At the end of the day they are both excellent PGs and we are fortunate to have them play for Duke.
I agree with your last statement but as for the rest...
Re rebounds: I explicitly said that teammates likely made it harder for Trevon to get rebounds so I didn't discount the effect very much.
Re assist rates: 3 point shooters miss 60-70% of their shots so they aren't the best way to get an assist. At the opposite end Bagley and Carter (both heavy use players) make 60-70% of their shots. It's more complicated that that (for example how often teammates work to get open for passes matters as well) but the shooting % of the person you are passing to is a big deal.
Re patsies: The strength of Tyus's first 14 game schedule is irrelevant because his stats were based on all 39 of his games. Btw this included games vs. final national KP rankings of 15, 2, 17, 9, 6, 9, 10, 10, 9, 8, 7, 15 and 2. So a third of Tyus' games were vs top 20, and a quarter against top 10 teams. And many of this top ranked teams were on the road. So the greater sos behind Jones' stats isn't really debatable. Also I made no claims about Trevon's future stats. His stats may actually improve when we get into the heart of the ACC schedule. I will be a bit surprised if that happens but it's possible.
Re defense: I didn't "conveniently" ignore Duval's superior defense - I explicitly said he was the better defender. I also said he was more athletic, a better driver, superior in steals, had a higher assist rate and a better 2pt %.

Again my post was simply a counterargument to the very strong claims that he's the best freshman pg in Duke history, not an attack on Duval.

CDu
01-01-2018, 04:25 PM
14 & 3 in the last 5 minutes. Amazing

Well, it was actually 9 and 2 in the last 5 minutes for Duval. 9 and 4 in the last 6.5 minutes. Though that is still pretty ridiculous.

CDu
01-01-2018, 04:27 PM
Finally I don't know what you are saying about the difference in their turnover %'s - Kenpom lists them both at an identical 17.4%. Maybe we are looking at different stat sources?

I used Sports Reference for both players.

JasonEvans
01-01-2018, 05:41 PM
14 & 3 in the last 5 minutes. Amazing

Ummm, he had 9 and 2 in the final 5 minutes... still a great performance but not quite the stats you posted.

AtlDuke72
01-01-2018, 06:08 PM
14 & 3 in the last 5 minutes. Amazing

If he can do that why doesn’t he score 112 with 24 assists for the game? Anything less is unacceptable to some on this Board.

CDu
01-01-2018, 06:13 PM
Ummm, he had 9 and 2 in the final 5 minutes... still a great performance but not quite the stats you posted.

That was soooooo 75 minutes ago! ;)

devildeac
01-01-2018, 06:16 PM
If he can do that why doesn’t he score 112 with 24 assists for the game? Anything less is unacceptable to some on this Board.

Because, if he does, that, MB3 will never get that 50/30 game, WC won't continue to improve as the season progresses and have his 30/30 game(s) and GA won't break JJ's Duke scoring record/get a NPOY award/have his jersey retired.

;):rolleyes:

azzefkram
01-01-2018, 07:02 PM
Re assist rates: 3 point shooters miss 60-70% of their shots so they aren't the best way to get an assist. At the opposite end Bagley and Carter (both heavy use players) make 60-70% of their shots. It's more complicated that that (for example how often teammates work to get open for passes matters as well) but the shooting % of the person you are passing to is a big deal.

Actually 3s are a great way to get an assist. In 2015, 91% of Duke's made 3s were assisted. In 2018, only 55% of Duke's shots at the rim and only 33% of 2pt jumpers are assisted.


Also I made no claims about Trevon's future stats.

Much more diluted looks like a claim but if not I apologize for my assumption.

Skydog
01-01-2018, 07:04 PM
I used Sports Reference for both players.

Interesting that the two sources (KP & SR) differ slightly on some of their stats. Wonder if it's random errors or slightly different formulas?

CDu
01-01-2018, 07:06 PM
Interesting that the two sources (KP & SR) differ slightly on some of their stats. Wonder if it's random errors or slightly different formulas?

Yeah, I have no idea. Several seem to line up well, otherwise I would blame it on how possessions are defined. But since possessions is a common denominator in several calcs, and several line up well, I don’t think that’s it. Who knows?

CDu
01-01-2018, 07:15 PM
Actually 3s are a great way to get an assist. In 2015, 91% of Duke's made 3s were assisted. In 2018, only 55% of Duke's shots at the rim and only 33% of 2pt jumpers are assisted.



Much more diluted looks like a claim but if not I apologize for my assumption.

Yep, there are a few reasons for this.

1. It is easier to pass along the perimeter than it is to pass inside
2. Minimal dribbling is allowed before shooting for it to be an assist in college

So you have more successful passes made outside, and more passes that lead to immediate shots on the outside.

If you dimp it into the post to a guy who is defended, you won’t get an assist even if he scores off his post move. A bunch of Carter’s and Bagley’s buckets aren’t assisted, by virtue of them beating their man in the post or scoring off offensive rebounds. So while they are undoubtedly great scorers, and as worthy as any we have had in terms of running offense through them, they aren’t necessarily as assist-friendly as, say, a guy like Ryan Kelly.

BandAlum83
01-01-2018, 07:23 PM
Because, if he does, that, MB3 will never get that 50/30 game, WC won't continue to improve as the season progresses and have his 30/30 game(s) and GA won't break JJ's Duke scoring record/get a NPOY award/have his jersey retired.

;):rolleyes:

If only Bags hadn't reclassified and Wendell had gone to Harvard, GA could have been a legend!

elvis14
01-02-2018, 12:06 AM
I was thrilled when we signed TD. I'm still thrilled. It's a shame the OP took the "apologize blah blah blah" route instead of just creating an appreciation thread. I think that TD's been treated pretty fairly on this board.

I'll say this...if TD could just hit 3's at a decent rate....oh my goodness!!!!!

subzero02
01-02-2018, 02:20 AM
Actually 3s are a great way to get an assist. In 2015, 91% of Duke's made 3s were assisted. In 2018, only 55% of Duke's shots at the rim and only 33% of 2pt jumpers are assisted.



Much more diluted looks like a claim but if not I apologize for my assumption.

We should assist on more 2 pointers at the rim, considering how good our post players are. Duval can really pad his assists if, in the halfcourt, he can continues to look for Bagley, Carter and Bolden off dribble penatration first and his own scoring chances second. O'Connell is our best entry passer and he seems to do it effortlessly and very quickly. I'd like to see him get extended minutes the next time either Bagley or Carter is in "the zone". With his shooting stroke, passing skills and aggression, I expect O'Connell to catalyze several runs during the first half of ACC play. I'm surprised Grayson isn't a bit better at this facet of the game, he isn't bad but O'Connell is definitely better.

flyingdutchdevil
01-02-2018, 06:28 AM
I was thrilled when we signed TD. I'm still thrilled. It's a shame the OP took the "apologize blah blah blah" route instead of just creating an appreciation thread. I think that TD's been treated pretty fairly on this board.

I'll say this...if TD could just hit 3's at a decent rate...oh my goodness!!!!!

i hope this is sarcasm. Of our five core players, Duval gets thrown under the bus by far the most. If Grayson has a poor game, he’s defended to the upmost degree. If Carter has a bad game, everyone continues to cheer him on without any criticism. If Duval has two to three bad possessions, he gets slaughtered here. He is most certainly not treated fairly on DBR.

IMO, the criticism started before preseason when rumors came out that Coach K wasn’t happy with Tricky. And since then, he’s had to work his butt off to get fan approval.

To say Tre has been treated fairly on this board is akin to saying our bench is a strong suit of this team.

Furniture
01-02-2018, 07:15 AM
i hope this is sarcasm. Of our five core players, Duval gets thrown under the bus by far the most. If Grayson has a poor game, he’s defended to the upmost degree. If Carter has a bad game, everyone continues to cheer him on without any criticism. If Duval has two to three bad possessions, he gets slaughtered here. He is most certainly not treated fairly on DBR.

IMO, the criticism started before preseason when rumors came out that Coach K wasn’t happy with Tricky. And since then, he’s had to work his butt off to get fan approval.

To say Tre has been treated fairly on this board is akin to saying our bench is a strong suit of this team.

Let’s not even mention the DBR chat room!!

CDu
01-02-2018, 07:53 AM
We should assist on more 2 pointers at the rim, considering how good our post players are. Duval can really pad his assists if, in the halfcourt, he can continues to look for Bagley, Carter and Bolden off dribble penatration first and his own scoring chances second. O'Connell is our best entry passer and he seems to do it effortlessly and very quickly. I'd like to see him get extended minutes the next time either Bagley or Carter is in "the zone". With his shooting stroke, passing skills and aggression, I expect O'Connell to catalyze several runs during the first half of ACC play. I'm surprised Grayson isn't a bit better at this facet of the game, he isn't bad but O'Connell is definitely better.

Just a reminder that, while it is an integral facet of the offense, entry passes to the post aren’t ways to get assists. If a guy is posting up on his defender when the entry pass is received, the passer isn’t going to get an assist. In that scenario, the post man has to make a move to beat his defender, and thus becomes an unassisted basket. Assists come when the pass leads to an unimpeded basket. So post entries don’t lead to assists.

This was my point elsewhere that having two great post scorers and offensive rebounds can actually deflate assist numbers a bit.

Kedsy
01-02-2018, 11:15 AM
O'Connell is our best entry passer and he seems to do it effortlessly and very quickly. I'd like to see him get extended minutes the next time either Bagley or Carter is in "the zone". With his shooting stroke, passing skills and aggression, I expect O'Connell to catalyze several runs during the first half of ACC play. I'm surprised Grayson isn't a bit better at this facet of the game, he isn't bad but O'Connell is definitely better.


Just a reminder that, while it is an integral facet of the offense, entry passes to the post aren’t ways to get assists. If a guy is posting up on his defender when the entry pass is received, the passer isn’t going to get an assist. In that scenario, the post man has to make a move to beat his defender, and thus becomes an unassisted basket. Assists come when the pass leads to an unimpeded basket. So post entries don’t lead to assists.

To emphasize CDu's point, assuming Alex is our "best entry passer" (a premise with which I do not personally agree), he gets very few assists. He has 11 assists against 10 turnovers in 14 games (0.8 apg). His assist percentage (which is based on possessions played and thus normalizes differences in minutes played) is 8.6%, which is lower than Marvin's (8.8%), Javin's (9.3%), and Wendell's (11.4%), as well as, obviously, Grayson's 20.3% and Trevon's 31.1%.

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 02:20 PM
To emphasize CDu's point, assuming Alex is our "best entry passer" (a premise with which I do not personally agree), he gets very few assists. He has 11 assists against 10 turnovers in 14 games (0.8 apg). His assist percentage (which is based on possessions played and thus normalizes differences in minutes played) is 8.6%, which is lower than Marvin's (8.8%), Javin's (9.3%), and Wendell's (11.4%), as well as, obviously, Grayson's 20.3% and Trevon's 31.1%.

Alex is leading the team in assist percentage in conference games. But Buckmire is killing it in overall Defensive rebounding percentage at 50.3% and Assist Percentage at 40.4%. No one even close. That kid makes the most of his minutes.

Kedsy
01-02-2018, 02:28 PM
Alex is leading the team in assist percentage in conference games.

Yeah, those 2 assists in 11 minutes categorically prove he's the best passer on the team.

uh_no
01-02-2018, 02:34 PM
Alex is leading the team in assist percentage in conference games.

And Marshall/Miles Plumlee are the best three point shooters in Duke history :D

subzero02
01-02-2018, 02:53 PM
To emphasize CDu's point, assuming Alex is our "best entry passer" (a premise with which I do not personally agree), he gets very few assists. He has 11 assists against 10 turnovers in 14 games (0.8 apg). His assist percentage (which is based on possessions played and thus normalizes differences in minutes played) is 8.6%, which is lower than Marvin's (8.8%), Javin's (9.3%), and Wendell's (11.4%), as well as, obviously, Grayson's 20.3% and Trevon's 31.1%.

Who is our best post entry passer in your opinion? I think Alex is the best by a wide margin.

Spanarkel
01-02-2018, 03:04 PM
Just a reminder that, while it is an integral facet of the offense, entry passes to the post aren’t ways to get assists. If a guy is posting up on his defender when the entry pass is received, the passer isn’t going to get an assist. In that scenario, the post man has to make a move to beat his defender, and thus becomes an unassisted basket. Assists come when the pass leads to an unimpeded basket. So post entries don’t lead to assists.

This was my point elsewhere that having two great post scorers and offensive rebounds can actually deflate assist numbers a bit.

Going back to the BC game:

@8:33 of the 1st half, GA make a post-entry pass to MB3 in the paint, who, while closely guarded, dribbles twice then lofts an 8-9 foot jump hook, and GA is credited with the assist.

@6:01 of the 2nd half, Tre makes a post-entry pass to Carter Jr. under the basket, with Carter jumping to evade his defender and make more than a routine layup, and Tre is credited with the assist.

Post-entry passes don't lead to assists? There appears to be some significant disparity between your definition and what is being awarded, at least in this year's ACC play. I guess one could conceivably claim that those weren't post-entry passess...

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 03:35 PM
Yeah, those 2 assists in 11 minutes categorically prove he's the best passer on the team.

Nothing is proven here- just stating the facts. But you used his assist percentage in all games to argue your point. In his limited minutes- Alex makes very good decisions with the ball. The data says what the data says. His is a small sample size- but it is not easy to come into a game for a few minutes and make any impact. Alex does that and surprisingly the data supports it in higher stakes conference games.

drummerdevil
01-02-2018, 03:56 PM
Going back to the BC game:

@8:33 of the 1st half, GA make a post-entry pass to MB3 in the paint, who, while closely guarded, dribbles twice then lofts an 8-9 foot jump hook, and GA is credited with the assist.

@6:01 of the 2nd half, Tre makes a post-entry pass to Carter Jr. under the basket, with Carter jumping to evade his defender and make more than a routine layup, and Tre is credited with the assist.

Post-entry passes don't lead to assists? There appears to be some significant disparity between your definition and what is being awarded, at least in this year's ACC play. I guess one could conceivably claim that those weren't post-entry passess...

Deciding what exactly an assist is is difficult, but when the big does enough moves then you don’t credit the assist usually.

Kedsy
01-02-2018, 03:56 PM
Who is our best post entry passer in your opinion? I think Alex is the best by a wide margin.

I think Trevon is our best post-entry passer. I don't think Alex has made enough post-entry passes for me to form an opinion about him. How many successful post passes has he made? Five? That's just a guess, I can only remember a couple, though I agree they were both pretty good.


Nothing is proven here- just stating the facts. But you used his assist percentage in all games to argue your point. In his limited minutes- Alex makes very good decisions with the ball. The data says what the data says. His is a small sample size- but it is not easy to come into a game for a few minutes and make any impact. Alex does that and surprisingly the data supports it in higher stakes conference games.

No, the data does not support it. I cited assist percentage for the season and Alex had the fewest minutes of any the players I mentioned, but it was 176 minutes. The data you mention includes a grand total of two assists.

As you yourself pointed out, the Duke player this season with the best advanced stats is Mike Buckmire, who has played 4 minutes total for the season. There's a difference between a small but relevant sample size and just a few minutes. With only 11 minutes in conference play, Alex has not played enough to give us a small but relevant sample. It's more of a "Buckmire" sample.

As to whether Alex makes "very good decisions with the ball," again the full season data doesn't really support that. His a/to ratio of 1.1:1 is significantly worse than our other perimeter players (Trevon, 3.1:1; Grayson 2.8:1; Gary 2.7:1). In fact, Alex's a/to is also worse than Wendell's (1.3:1) and Javin's (1.2:1). Even Jordan Goldwire's numbers (2.9:1) far exceed Alex's, though Jordan's are probably unrealistically bolstered by his 12a vs. 0to in two 60-point blowouts (in the other 10 games he's played, Jordan's a/to ratio of 1.14 is only a little better than Alex's). And, sure, 176 minutes isn't a huge sample, either, but I would classify that many minutes as small but relevant. Certainly much more relevant than his 11 minute conference sample.

Overall, I think Alex is having a surprisingly good season, exceeding expectations by a lot. But let's not build him up into something he isn't.

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 04:25 PM
I think Trevon is our best post-entry passer. I don't think Alex has made enough post-entry passes for me to form an opinion about him. How many successful post passes has he made? Five? That's just a guess, I can only remember a couple, though I agree they were both pretty good.



No, the data does not support it. I cited assist percentage for the season and Alex had the fewest minutes of any the players I mentioned, but it was 176 minutes. The data you mention includes a grand total of two assists.

As you yourself pointed out, the Duke player this season with the best advanced stats is Mike Buckmire, who has played 4 minutes total for the season. There's a difference between a small but relevant sample size and just a few minutes. With only 11 minutes in conference play, Alex has not played enough to give us a small but relevant sample. It's more of a "Buckmire" sample.

As to whether Alex makes "very good decisions with the ball," again the full season data doesn't really support that. His a/to ratio of 1.1:1 is significantly worse than our other perimeter players (Trevon, 3.1:1; Grayson 2.8:1; Gary 2.7:1). In fact, Alex's a/to is also worse than Wendell's (1.3:1) and Javin's (1.2:1). Even Jordan Goldwire's numbers (2.9:1) far exceed Alex's, though Jordan's are probably unrealistically bolstered by his 12a vs. 0to in two 60-point blowouts (in the other 10 games he's played, Jordan's a/to ratio of 1.14 is only a little better than Alex's). And, sure, 176 minutes isn't a huge sample, either, but I would classify that many minutes as small but relevant. Certainly much more relevant than his 11 minute conference sample.

Overall, I think Alex is having a surprisingly good season, exceeding expectations by a lot. But let's not build him up into something he isn't.

What is a significant sample size of minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid? Does he have to play 30% of the available minutes? Can we form any opinion of his play without data? I see Alex come in and I see good things happen. He does not play a lot but he seems to contribute. I have no idea how he would do if given 25 - 30 minutes a game. He has one game where he played 29 minutes (against texas) and had 2 points, 2 assists, 1 turnover and 6 rebounds-5 Offensive- that could have led to points.

CDu
01-02-2018, 04:29 PM
Going back to the BC game:

@8:33 of the 1st half, GA make a post-entry pass to MB3 in the paint, who, while closely guarded, dribbles twice then lofts an 8-9 foot jump hook, and GA is credited with the assist.

This is as borderline as it gets for an assist. But those two dribbles were just to catch the ball, not an actual move. Bagley then immediately rises up for a hook shot. This is the one circumstance in which a post entry pass can result in an assist: when the guy immediately goes up for a shot after getting the ball. I say this is as borderline as it gets because of the two dribbles. But those dribbles were, as I said, Bagley's way of catching the pass. He was extended to catch it with one hand, and dribbled as a response to the pass.

If Bagley had caught the ball with two hands, sized up his man on the post, taken two "back-down" dribbles, and then made a move, it wouldn't have gone for an assist. But because he never moved from where he caught it, Allen got the assist. The scorekeeper must have felt that Bagley didn't make his own post move, and that the dribbles were just to settle possession.

This is an atypical outcome of a post entry pass, by the way. Hence the assist.


@6:01 of the 2nd half, Tre makes a post-entry pass to Carter Jr. under the basket, with Carter jumping to evade his defender and make more than a routine layup, and Tre is credited with the assist.

In this case, the pass leads to an unimpeded basket. Carter has sealed his man off, who is thus 3/4 fronting him. Carter has created clear, unimpeded path to the basket. Duval then threads the needle to Carter on the baseline, leading him right to that unimpeded path to the rim. Carter catches and goes straight up for a layup, with his defender behind him. The defender bumps him, but the pass led directly to the basket.

This is not really a standard post play (i.e., defender between post guy and the basket). This is the rare case of a lowpost player getting excellent position and sealing his man off (creating a clear path to the basket) and a passer making a perfect pass leading the post player to that path to the basket.


Post-entry passes don't lead to assists? There appears to be some significant disparity between your definition and what is being awarded, at least in this year's ACC play. I guess one could conceivably claim that those weren't post-entry passess...

As per my responses above, post entries don't typically lead to assists. It isn't that it NEVER happens (the Bagley example illustrates that, and there is inconsistency in scorekeepers' doling out of assists too). Just that it is pretty uncommon. The Bagley bucket is the most common way that it does happen: player gets the ball and basically immediately shoots over his man. And that is not a very common occurrence.

Otherwise, it takes either an exceptional post entry pass, leading the player to the basket such that the defender can't really stop him.

The vast majority of post entry passes lead to the post player sizing up his man, then determining a path to the basket. Those don't get assists, unless the scorekeeper is VERY generous with his awarding of assists. Those plays aren't supposed to be credited with assists.

Kedsy
01-02-2018, 04:39 PM
What is a significant sample size of minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid? Does he have to play 30% of the available minutes?

30%? Our player with the most minutes on the team (Grayson) has only played 16% of the team's minutes. As far as how many minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid, I don't know but maybe someone who took more than the one statistics course I took could tell us. I suspect it might be different for different stats.

But I do know that 11 minutes total isn't enough.



Can we form any opinion of his play without data?

Hey, knock yourself out.


I see Alex come in and I see good things happen. He does not play a lot but he seems to contribute. I have no idea how he would do if given 25 - 30 minutes a game.

Alex plays with a lot of energy. He rebounds pretty well for a guard, OK but not great for a small forward. He passes decently for a shooting guard, but to my eye his passing hasn't risen to the level I'd expect from a combo guard (and certainly not a point guard). He shoots pretty well. Needs a lot of work on defense. Makes freshman mistakes but not an inordinate amount of them. Like I said before, he's far exceeded expectations. But personally, with the personnel on this team, I do not think his play has warranted 25 to 30 minutes a game. I think 8 to 12 makes more sense. That's my eye test. But I'm willing to look at his advanced stats to see if my eye test matches reality.


He has one game where he played 29 minutes (against texas) and had 2 points, 2 assists, 1 turnover and 6 rebounds-5 Offensive- that could have led to points.

You say you want to form an opinion of his play without data, and then you cite data. Of one game. In which he rebounded well on the offensive end but did little else. Ok.

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 04:53 PM
30%? Our player with the most minutes on the team (Grayson) has only played 16% of the team's minutes. As far as how many minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid, I don't know but maybe someone who took more than the one statistics course I took could tell us. I suspect it might be different for different stats.

But I do know that 11 minutes total isn't enough.



Hey, knock yourself out.



Alex plays with a lot of energy. He rebounds pretty well for a guard, OK but not great for a small forward. He passes decently for a shooting guard, but to my eye his passing hasn't risen to the level I'd expect from a combo guard (and certainly not a point guard). He shoots pretty well. Needs a lot of work on defense. Makes freshman mistakes but not an inordinate amount of them. Like I said before, he's far exceeded expectations. But personally, with the personnel on this team, I do not think his play has warranted 25 to 30 minutes a game. I think 8 to 12 makes more sense. That's my eye test. But I'm willing to look at his advanced stats to see if my eye test matches reality.



You say you want to form an opinion of his play without data, and then you cite data. Of one game. In which he rebounded well on the offensive end but did little else. Ok.

I said I did not know what was a valid use of advanced stats - in terms of minutes per game- not total team minutes- and then showed one example where he played significant minutes to see how he did and made no conclusions. You started this all by using advanced stats to support your arguement of his passing skills and then suggested that sample sizes are too small when I pointed out the same advanced stats for conference games. That all said- I agree that Alex should play about 12 minutes a game and perhaps that is enough to trust the stats to tell us something.

CDu
01-02-2018, 05:01 PM
30%? Our player with the most minutes on the team (Grayson) has only played 16% of the team's minutes. As far as how many minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid, I don't know but maybe someone who took more than the one statistics course I took could tell us. I suspect it might be different for different stats.

But I do know that 11 minutes total isn’t enough.

I am pretty sure dukelifer was talking about % of minutes available to a single player. Allen has played substantially more than 16% of minutes available to him (5 times more). There are 200 minutes available to the team each game. But there are just 40 minutes per game available to a player.

As for the minimum number of minutes needed to be confident in a player’s stats as representative? Not sure when they stabilize - IF they stabilize at all in a <=40 game schedule that is inconsistent in terms of quality of opponent. But I would certainly consider the full-season stats as more representative than an 11-mniute sample of the season (in other words, I agree with you).

dukelifer: Trevon Duval had 11 points and 4 assists in 13 minutes of play in the 2nd half against FSU. That is a per-40 pace of 33.8 points and 12.3 assists. Do you think that 13-minute stretch is representative of the player Duval is? Of course not. So why would you use an 11-minute sample as evidence supporting O’Connell?

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 05:20 PM
I am pretty sure dukelifer was talking about % of minutes available to a single player. Allen has played substantially more than 16% of minutes available to him (5 times more). There are 200 minutes available to the team each game. But there are just 40 minutes per game available to a player.

As for the minimum number of minutes needed to be confident in a player’s stats as representative? Not sure when they stabilize - IF they stabilize at all in a <=40 game schedule that is inconsistent in terms of quality of opponent. But I would certainly consider the full-season stats as more representative than an 11-mniute sample of the season (in other words, I agree with you).

dukelifer: Trevon Duval had 11 points and 4 assists in 13 minutes of play in the 2nd half against FSU. That is a per-40 pace of 33.8 points and 12.3 assists. Do you think that 13-minute stretch is representative of the player Duval is? Of course not. So why would you use an 11-minute sample as evidence supporting O’Connell?

Well if you go back to the original post- much of this was tongue in cheek suggesting that stats need context and I initially pointed out an absurd example of Buckmire. But OConnell is an interesting player. He comes in time after time and seems to make plays. He brings energy. The sample size is very small but he has a knack for contributing from the bench and that is not easy for kids who have been starters their whole life. The advanced stats at this point suggest that he contributes in his role but I don’t think they fully reflect his contribution. I have seen him lift the team up or make a ridiculous cross court assist. That cannot be captured in just the stat or numbers- context matters. Players who hit 50% of their shots and 75% percent from the line in the first 35 minutes but miss in the last five minutes time and time again- their stats look fine but none of us trust that player in the end of games. Just trying to temper the use of stats to give the complete picture of a player.

CDu
01-02-2018, 05:27 PM
Well if you go back to the original post- much of this was tongue in cheek suggesting that stats need context and I initially pointed out an absurd example of Buckmire. But OConnell is an interesting player. He comes in time after time and seems to make plays. He brings energy. The sample size is very small but he has a knack for contributing from the bench and that is not easy for kids who have been starters their whole life. The advanced stats at this point suggest that he contributes in his role but I don’t think they fully reflect his contribution. I have seen him lift the team up or make a ridiculous cross court assist. That cannot be captured in just the stat or numbers- context matters. Players who hit 50% of their shots and 75% percent from the line in the first 35 minutes but miss in the last five minutes time and time again- their stats look fine but none of us trust that player in the end of games. Just trying to temper the use of stats to give the complete picture of a player.

I don’t disagree generally with what you say in this post. I like O’Connell as a player, and he has been quite valuable in spot minutes off the bench. But he is not the best passer on the team, which is all kedsy and I are saying.

And I disagree with your point about tempering the use of stats in assessing players. Ultimately, to a very large degree, stats do accurately reflect the player’s contribution. The obvious caveat is that the stats need to be based on at least a sufficient minumum number of minutes/games. 11 minutes is far from sufficient. Even 100 minutes is probably not sufficient. But 100 minutes will give better predictive power than 11.

dukelifer
01-02-2018, 05:43 PM
I don’t disagree generally with what you say in this post. I like O’Connell as a player, and he has been quite valuable in spot minutes off the bench. But he is not the best passer on the team, which is all kedsy and I are saying.

And I disagree with your point about tempering the use of stats in assessing players. Ultimately, to a very large degree, stats do accurately reflect the player’s contribution. The obvious caveat is that the stats need to be based on at least a sufficient minumum number of minutes/games. 11 minutes is far from sufficient. Even 100 minutes is probably not sufficient. But 100 minutes will give better predictive power than 11.

For sure- the more data the better. K is limiting our ability to assess Alex ;) Perhaps the advanced stats should only be used for folks who play double digit minutes. I have been impressed with the passing on this team- Alex included.

sagegrouse
01-02-2018, 05:45 PM
I don’t disagree generally with what you say in this post. I like O’Connell as a player, and he has been quite valuable in spot minutes off the bench. But he is not the best passer on the team, which is all kedsy and I are saying.

And I disagree with your point about tempering the use of stats in assessing players. Ultimately, to a very large degree, stats do accurately reflect the player’s contribution. The obvious caveat is that the stats need to be based on at least a sufficient minumum number of minutes/games. 11 minutes is far from sufficient. Even 100 minutes is probably not sufficient. But 100 minutes will give better predictive power than 11.

“What's past is prologue” spoken by evil Sebastian in Act II, Scene I of The Tempest. What has happened up to now only sets the stage.

Skydog
01-02-2018, 07:07 PM
What is a significant sample size of minutes for the advanced analysis to be valid? .

Depends on the stat. You need more minutes for rare events (like blocks) to stabilize than common events (like shots). One good rule of thumb - if changing a small # of outcomes changes the stat significantly then you shouldn't put much stock in it. For example O'Connell's "conference only assist rate" would drop from 22% to 11% if he had one less assist in conference play and jump to 33% if he had 1 more! So such small n stats are worthless - better to go with the eye test with such a small sample.

And btw I like O'Connell. Seems like a very smart player. Hope he gets meaningful minutes as conference play goes on.

cato
01-02-2018, 07:11 PM
Hope he gets meaningful minutes as conference play goes on.

There is at least one very meaningful stat here: O’Connell’s minutes logged in two tight conference games. History suggests that absent injury or a serious shake-up on the team, he is likely to log minutes as conference play goes on, but not a ton of them.

OldPhiKap
01-02-2018, 07:21 PM
There is at least one very meaningful stat here: O’Connell’s minutes logged in two tight conference games. History suggests that absent injury or a serious shake-up on the team, he is likely to log minutes as conference play goes on, but not a ton of them.

FWIW, K said in his post-game press conference after FSU that he should have played AOC more in the first half than he did.

CDu
01-02-2018, 07:26 PM
FWIW, K said in his post-game press conference after FSU that he should have played AOC more in the first half than he did.

Yeah, I think it comes down to whether or not Coach K feels the need to have two PG options on the floor. And conjointly, whether Duval or Allen are in foul trouble. O’Connell and Goldwire are battling for the backup guard/wing minutes, and they offer very different attributes.

elvis14
01-03-2018, 09:58 AM
I don’t disagree generally with what you say in this post. I like O’Connell as a player, and he has been quite valuable in spot minutes off the bench. But he is not the best passer on the team, which is all kedsy and I are saying.

And I disagree with your point about tempering the use of stats in assessing players. Ultimately, to a very large degree, stats do accurately reflect the player’s contribution. The obvious caveat is that the stats need to be based on at least a sufficient minumum number of minutes/games. 11 minutes is far from sufficient. Even 100 minutes is probably not sufficient. But 100 minutes will give better predictive power than 11.

I can remember reading online boards in the early 90's (specifically a Cincy Reds baseball forum) and it was there that I first ran into the arguments between the stats guys and non-stats guys (the never ending 'clutch' argument). I'm somewhere in the middle myself. I think stats are a useful tool to help us understand what we see...sometimes. Sadly, DBR has devolved to the point where we need to temper the use of stats in assessing players around here. Although they are very useful it's gotten to the point where they are overused here. Nobody is allowed to state an opinion unless they can supply stats and God forbid the stats don't actually line up with the eye test (in which case the eye test is suddenly BS because....well stats). I can list the guys that'll disagree with me already, but I saw the need for balance 25 years ago and still see it today.

Skydog
01-03-2018, 01:05 PM
I can remember reading online boards in the early 90's (specifically a Cincy Reds baseball forum) and it was there that I first ran into the arguments between the stats guys and non-stats guys (the never ending 'clutch' argument). I'm somewhere in the middle myself. I think stats are a useful tool to help us understand what we see...sometimes. Sadly, DBR has devolved to the point where we need to temper the use of stats in assessing players around here. Although they are very useful it's gotten to the point where they are overused here. Nobody is allowed to state an opinion unless they can supply stats and God forbid the stats don't actually line up with the eye test (in which case the eye test is suddenly BS because...well stats). I can list the guys that'll disagree with me already, but I saw the need for balance 25 years ago and still see it today.

Do you have any stats to back up that argument?

UrinalCake
01-03-2018, 01:14 PM
Do you have any stats to back up that argument?

I wouldn’t bother; 73.9% of all stats are made up.

Matches
01-03-2018, 01:15 PM
I wouldn’t bother; 73.9% of all stats are made up.

Also: "Be careful of quotes you read on the Internet." - Abraham Lincoln

Kedsy
01-03-2018, 02:20 PM
Also: "Be careful of quotes you read on the Internet." - Abraham Lincoln

Come on, be serious. Everyone knows that quote is from Plato's Republic.

DukieInBrasil
01-03-2018, 02:40 PM
Come on, be serious. Everyone knows that quote is from Plato's Republic.

I'm pretty sure it's from the caves of Lascaux

dukelifer
01-03-2018, 04:27 PM
I can remember reading online boards in the early 90's (specifically a Cincy Reds baseball forum) and it was there that I first ran into the arguments between the stats guys and non-stats guys (the never ending 'clutch' argument). I'm somewhere in the middle myself. I think stats are a useful tool to help us understand what we see...sometimes. Sadly, DBR has devolved to the point where we need to temper the use of stats in assessing players around here. Although they are very useful it's gotten to the point where they are overused here. Nobody is allowed to state an opinion unless they can supply stats and God forbid the stats don't actually line up with the eye test (in which case the eye test is suddenly BS because...well stats). I can list the guys that'll disagree with me already, but I saw the need for balance 25 years ago and still see it today.

I think we need to be careful about stats. There are lots of ways to parse a game- there are lots of details not reflected in the stats. For example, how many time a turnover is from a bad pass or stepping out of bounds or the receiver not being ready to catch. Stats at the end of games may be more critical than at the beginning or play in big games vs play is meaningless games. All can be gleaned but they are not always available. We have impressions on Alex based on what we see but the data is too sparse at this point to quantify. Humans use a lot of info to base their judgements - some rational- some not and some from the gut honed from experience. One cannot discount experienced based intuition out of hand. Stats can help ground it and can be helpful. I learned a lot form the discussion so far - particularly about Trevon. I still think he is far from being great because I value shooting the three ball from my point guards. If that changes- he will be outstanding. The question is whether Trevon recognizes this weakness and is actively working on it.

uh_no
01-03-2018, 04:44 PM
I think we need to be careful about stats. There are lots of ways to parse a game- there are lots of details not reflected in the stats. For example, how many time a turnover is from a bad pass or stepping out of bounds or the receiver not being ready to catch. Stats at the end of games may be more critical than at the beginning or play in big games vs play is meaningless games. All can be gleaned but they are not always available. We have impressions on Alex based on what we see but the data is too sparse at this point to quantify. Humans use a lot of info to base their judgements - some rational- some not and some from the gut honed from experience. One cannot discount experienced based intuition out of hand. Stats can help ground it and can be helpful. I learned a lot form the discussion so far - particularly about Trevon. I still think he is far from being great because I value shooting the three ball from my point guards. If that changes- he will be outstanding. The question is whether Trevon recognizes this weakness and is actively working on it.

stats are an ocean without intuition to know what to look at. intuition can be fallible without stats.

you need both. it's a false dichotomy. In cases where stats don't agree with intuition, the right answer is to ask why instead of arguing who is right.

-jk
01-03-2018, 04:55 PM
stats are an ocean without intuition to know what to look at. intuition can be fallible without stats.

you need both. it's a false dichotomy. In cases where stats don't agree with intuition, the right answer is to ask why instead of arguing who is right.

And, well: Liars figure and figures lie. Or maybe: Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Or is it: 73% of stats are made up on the spot?

Anyway, I don't blindly follow my gps (https://www.cnet.com/news/man-followed-gps-drove-off-disused-bridge-ramp-wife-dies-police-say/) either...

-jk

dukelifer
01-03-2018, 05:00 PM
stats are an ocean without intuition to know what to look at. intuition can be fallible without stats.

you need both. it's a false dichotomy. In cases where stats don't agree with intuition, the right answer is to ask why instead of arguing who is right.

And you need the right stats and statistical approach and you need to understand the assumptions on which those stats are valid. It is very easy to mislead yourself and others with stats when inappropriately applied.