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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 104, Evansville 40 post game thread



Bob Green
12-20-2017, 08:21 PM
Discuss the game here...

-jk
12-20-2017, 08:23 PM
Nice effort. It moved us up to 4 in KenPom...

(Of course, they were hobbled, which KenPom doesn't acknowledge. But I'll take it!)

-jk

ipatent
12-20-2017, 08:25 PM
The team was obviously motivated by the long layoff stewing after a loss. Not much to criticize about the effort or the results. Wish we could save some of those threes from these blowouts for ACC play. The bench players did well for themselves. Goldwire with 7 assists and 3 steals. JRob can play.

UrinalCake
12-20-2017, 08:30 PM
Quality of opponent was obviously very poor, but still it was nice to see us shoot well after the long layoff. It was obvious that the team had been working on defense and that the message had gotten through that they need to play hard on that end on every possession. This trickled down to the bench guys. I liked that we weren't switching on every screen but would have our guard go around/through it or immediately switch back.

If Carter can consistently hit an outside shot then that will really open things up inside. He won't hit multiple threes every game, but even being a threat to take 15-foot jumpers will prevent the D from packing it in. Bagley was quiet but we didn't need him to do much in this one. Loved seeing us share the ball too, a very high percentage of field goals were assisted.

Bob Green
12-20-2017, 08:38 PM
It is worth noting Trevon Duval with eight assists against one turnover. IMO he is underappreciated by some folks.

OldPhiKap
12-20-2017, 08:40 PM
Missed the first half. Glad to see that the team did not lose focus in the second half or slip because the bench was in.

Lots of good efforts for the part I saw.

ipatent
12-20-2017, 08:40 PM
It is worth noting Trevon Duval with eight assists against one turnover. IMO he is underappreciated by some folks.

Agreed. Only five turnovers for the team as a whole impressive as well.

mr. synellinden
12-20-2017, 08:42 PM
I posted this in the in-game thread:

Carter/Bagley 10-11 FTs

The other team's personnel is irrelevant to this stat.

If they can shoot in the 75% range (or higher) for the rest of the season, it will make us even harder to beat.

BandAlum83
12-20-2017, 08:51 PM
It is worth noting Trevon Duval with eight assists against one turnover. IMO he is underappreciated by some folks.

His half court pass to O'Connell after the Bolden block was a thing of beauty!

SkyBrickey
12-20-2017, 08:52 PM
I think Carter can make 35-40% of those wide-open 3s. Will really open things up for Bagley down low in the high-low game if true.

Nice to see all the 3-balls dropping tonight. Need that confidence going into ACC play.

jipops
12-20-2017, 08:53 PM
The only thing I really gathered from this game was that Carter's side burns are killer.

The quality of opponent was very poor and they were missing their 3 best players. It was nice too see us stay alert on D and actually force turnovers, but we won't see an offense even remotely as bad as what our guys were up against tonight.

I probably should gives some props to Bolden for his play on D. Hope he continues to move his feet like that.

uh_no
12-20-2017, 08:59 PM
I think Carter can make 35-40% of those wide-open 3s. Will really open things up for Bagley down low in the high-low game if true.

Nice to see all the 3-balls dropping tonight. Need that confidence going into ACC play.

I think the star wars holiday christmas special is a good flick....but that doesn't make it true :D

His .500 looks good, right now, but I doubt it stays anywhere near that on the year. His FT% hints at a far inferior number....but we shall see! I'd be ecstatic with even 30%.

fun fact: the only shooter on the team worse than duvall is jack white :D

good thing he was dropping dimes like a slot machine.

Kedsy
12-20-2017, 09:04 PM
Obviously rusty after the long layoff. Hopefully we'll be sharper next time out.


Bagley was quiet but we didn't need him to do much in this one.

18 points (on 75% shooting; along with 83% FT shooting and 50% 3pt shooting), 7 rebounds, 4 assists against 0 turnovers, and 2 blocks. If that's "quiet," I'll take it.


Loved seeing us share the ball too, a very high percentage of field goals were assisted.

Yeah 82.1% of our baskets were assisted. Our A/to ratio was 6.4 to 1. Our turnover percentage was a ridiculously low 7.7%. That, combined with our 74.6% eFG%, allowed us to score 1.60 points per possession.


His FT% hints at a far inferior number...

Well, he shot 5 for 5 from the line tonight, too.

Ballboy1998
12-20-2017, 09:04 PM
Random question, but the guys all had new protrusions under their jerseys on their middle upper back areas (about where their names are): Does anyone know what those were? I would assume some kind of padding (though that would be oddly placed) or part of an advanced metrics tracking rig. Whatever it is, it's new.

WHOneedsSOX
12-20-2017, 09:06 PM
Duke played really well. Great effort. Moved the ball well which is sometimes hard to do against a poor opponent since 1on1 scoring is easy. But this was a very poor opponent. Didn't they start their 3 string point guard? Would like to see Duke against a team with guards that can penetrate well before I say their defense is fixed. Of course I don't expect it to be great overnight but like I said, this was a poor opponent and not a good way to measure their defense.

Ultrarunner
12-20-2017, 09:08 PM
Duke played really well. Great effort. Moved the ball well which is sometimes hard to do against a poor opponent since 1on1 scoring is easy. But this was a very poor opponent. Didn't they start their 3 string point guard? Would like to see Duke against a team with guards that can penetrate well before I say their defense is fixed. Of course I don't expect it to be great overnight but like I said, this was a poor opponent and not a good way to measure their defense.

The defense is not fixed. It is, however, improved. Just important was the effort level was much better on that end.

UrinalCake
12-20-2017, 09:11 PM
Carter/Bagley 10-11 FTs

The other team's personnel is irrelevant to this stat.

Well only kind of... it’s a lot harder to hit free throws at the end of a close game on the road, when you are fatigued and under pressure, versus knocking them down in your home gym when you’re up 30. But I do think that Bagley’s free throws have been trending upwards ever since the Texas game.

Troublemaker
12-20-2017, 09:12 PM
The only thing I really gathered from this game was that Carter's side burns are killer.

The quality of opponent was very poor and they were missing their 3 best players. It was nice too see us stay alert on D and actually force turnovers, but we won't see an offense even remotely as bad as what our guys were up against tonight.

Yeah, but we were favored by ~30 and won by ~60. We've also sometimes struggled in these post-finals games, so no need to downplay it too much. This was a great performance and hopefully we follow it up with a great performance against FSU.

I was struck by how we pressured the ball and denied the wings aggressively for 40 minutes. Many of our fans think we play like tonight all the time, but we've actually dialed back the pressure fairly often this season and last (and it hasn't helped). Today we really committed to a classic Duke style of defense for 40 minutes, and it was nice to see all the turnovers forced. (Now let's see what happens against FSU.) I've never really been bothered by how we pressure the point guard up high; it has a lot of benefits to go with its drawbacks. Things like not allowing the opponent to run its normal offense.

uh_no
12-20-2017, 09:12 PM
before the game, devildeac said "i think duke will go on a 27-3 run or something"

well, we all know the score was stuck on 30-15 for some time...after which duke one-upped devildeac's prediction with a 28-3 run!

I think even more impressive was the fact that it was 7-5...and then duke outscored evansville by 42.

I don't care who you are, that's an impressive showing. Really happy with carter's effort today. even though the boards numbers weren't that high (21 turnovers and not many duke missed shots didn't help there), I really thought he put forward a strong effort and was far more engaged than he had been against BC and in the couple games before that. Best stat? 0 fouls.

Other shoutouts: 13 steals. many of them were great hustle plays
Duvall: 8-1. this kid is a darn good PG

Okay. enough with the cupcakes. lets bring on the ACC season (which I am also excited for because fewer people can't find their seat. Protip: you are not in row "1," you're in row "I")

Edit: efficiency was 157.1-57.6 JUST missing the rare century delta

WHOneedsSOX
12-20-2017, 09:17 PM
The defense is not fixed. It is, however, improved. Just important was the effort level was much better on that end.

Yup, I agree. Guys were making an effort to get into help position. Pressure on the ball was really good although they didn't have any guards who could dribble well.

UrinalCake
12-20-2017, 09:18 PM
There was some really good commentary by Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg in the studio after the game. I know these two are not favored by a lot of Duke fans, but they they made a lot of good points - they talked about what it's like for freshmen to learn to play defense at the college level as compared to what they saw in high school. In Greenberg's words, they need to first learn to give effort all the time, second learn the physical/technical skills and strategy being employed, and third learn to communicate. And Jay pointed out that they need to not only understand their own roles on defense, but the roles of the four other players, so that the team can defend as a unit. This is difficult for a freshmen to do when playing with four experienced players, and the challenge is magnified when you have multiple freshmen all learning together.

I thought some really great points were made, effort is important but it's not JUST about effort, a lot of this just takes time. Hopefully tonight was a step in the right direction.

BlueDevil2K
12-20-2017, 09:26 PM
Protip: you are not in row "1," you're in row "I")


Maybe one of these years they'll consider fixing the #$*& font so that it's not just a vertical bar for an I!

Edit:hahaha the font on the board has the same issue 😀

duke4ever19
12-20-2017, 09:34 PM
Heck of a comeback!

Down 2-0 early and things were getting tense. Riveting stuff!

devildeac
12-20-2017, 09:58 PM
before the game, devildeac said "i think duke will go on a 27-3 run or something"

well, we all know the score was stuck on 30-15 for some time...after which duke one-upped devildeac's prediction with a 28-3 run!

I think even more impressive was the fact that it was 7-5...and then duke outscored evansville by 42.

I don't care who you are, that's an impressive showing. Really happy with carter's effort today. even though the boards numbers weren't that high (21 turnovers and not many duke missed shots didn't help there), I really thought he put forward a strong effort and was far more engaged than he had been against BC and in the couple games before that. Best stat? 0 fouls.

Other shoutouts: 13 steals. many of them were great hustle plays
Duvall: 8-1. this kid is a darn good PG

Okay. enough with the cupcakes. lets bring on the ACC season (which I am also excited for because fewer people can't find their seat. Protip: you are not in row "1," you're in row "I")

Edit: efficiency was 157.1-57.6 JUST missing the rare century delta

Well, to be honest, uh_no prompted me with a, "I'll be really happy with a 27-0 run" to which I replied, "Let's not get greedy. I'll settle for a 27-3 run." ;)

Furniture
12-20-2017, 10:14 PM
“ he’s a good shooter”. Carter (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeReport/status/943667345788166146)

Saratoga2
12-20-2017, 10:14 PM
UNC just lost to Wofford playing at home no less.

Saratoga2
12-20-2017, 10:19 PM
The defense is not fixed. It is, however, improved. Just important was the effort level was much better on that end.

O'Connell played very good defense tonight and that is important since it gives us another guard to rely on and we sure could have used that against BC.

ehdg
12-20-2017, 10:20 PM
Any word on why Tucker didn’t even dress tonight?

OldPhiKap
12-20-2017, 10:22 PM
Any word on why Tucker didn’t even dress tonight?

K mentioned that DeLaurier and Tucker were both hurt. Described DeLaurier (tight hamstring, sounds orecautionslry to hold him out) but did not elaborate on Tucker.

At least, that’s how I heard it.

ehdg
12-20-2017, 10:24 PM
K mentioned that DeLaurier and Tucker were both hurt. Described DeLaurier (tight hamstring, sounds orecautionslry to hold him out) but did not elaborate on Tucker.

At least, that’s how I heard it.

Thanks.

jimsumner
12-20-2017, 10:25 PM
Heck of a comeback!

Down 2-0 early and things were getting tense. Riveting stuff!

It was worse than that. It actually was 7-5 Evansville at one point!!!

uh_no
12-20-2017, 10:26 PM
K mentioned that DeLaurier and Tucker were both hurt. Described DeLaurier (tight hamstring, sounds orecautionslry to hold him out) but did not elaborate on Tucker.

At least, that’s how I heard it.

R.I.P. jordan tucker's lower body.

robed deity
12-20-2017, 10:31 PM
Is Grayson saying K's name wrong or is everyone else?

Bluedog
12-20-2017, 10:34 PM
Is Grayson saying K's name wrong or is everyone else?

I actually thought the same thing...I guess that's why the players call him Coach K exclusively. Yes, Grayson did pronounce it funny but the second time was because he had something in front of his mouth.

Rich
12-20-2017, 10:34 PM
There was some really good commentary by Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg in the studio after the game. I know these two are not favored by a lot of Duke fans, but they they made a lot of good points - they talked about what it's like for freshmen to learn to play defense at the college level as compared to what they saw in high school. In Greenberg's words, they need to first learn to give effort all the time, second learn the physical/technical skills and strategy being employed, and third learn to communicate. And Jay pointed out that they need to not only understand their own roles on defense, but the roles of the four other players, so that the team can defend as a unit. This is difficult for a freshmen to do when playing with four experienced players, and the challenge is magnified when you have multiple freshmen all learning together.

I thought some really great points were made, effort is important but it's not JUST about effort, a lot of this just takes time. Hopefully tonight was a step in the right direction.

I thought Jason Capel (as much as I hate to give props to a UNCheater, but perhaps gets a pass for being Jeff's bro) did an excellent job doing the color. Play-by-play also good, but I can't remember his name. Make it about the game, without theatrics, weird stuff, or about yourself and I am engaged.

MrPoon
12-20-2017, 10:49 PM
My biggest take away from this wasn’t the improved defensive communication and effort, but both were nice, but what stood out to me was someone reminded Carter that he is a bad dude. This was the most complete, confident game he played and I don’t just mean the threes. He stopped deferring to Bagley and was assertive for himself. That energy translated on both ends. That will translate into future games.
Whoever had the talk with Carter, needs to have it next with Duval. He’s capable of more than what we saw tonight. I’m not in the crew who piles on Duval, I really like what he brings, I just think he has more to give especially against an overmatched team like tonight.
Lastly, I love watching the slow growth of Bolden. This is why we all love college hoops and bemoan 1&D sometimes. Injures and slowly learning, as many big men do, he is starting to be a very dangous contributor, especially on D. And that is all he needs to be for this team. It is showing up in his demeanor which is great to see.

Too bad UNC got caught up watching our game and weren’t prepared for their own!:rolleyes:

MrPoon
12-20-2017, 10:52 PM
I thought Jason Capel (as much as I hate to give props to a UNCheater, but perhaps gets a pass for being Jeff's bro) did an excellent job doing the color. Play-by-play also good, but I can't remember his name. Make it about the game, without theatrics, weird stuff, or about yourself and I am engaged.

Yeah, I especially liked when he said that UNC was a close second to Duke in the ACC. “Up next for the defending Champs, Watford”. By the way how much did the close-second team do at home tonight?:cool:

uh_no
12-20-2017, 10:54 PM
Duval. He’s capable of more than what we saw tonight. I’m not in the crew who piles on Duval, I really like what he brings, I just think he has more to give especially against an overmatched team like tonight.


What do you think he could have done more? he had 8 assists and 2 steals in 21 minutes and it's not like the team would have scored more efficiently had he been taking shots instead. I'm really curious what you actually think he should have been doing.

Furniture
12-20-2017, 10:57 PM
My biggest take away from this wasn’t the improved defensive communication and effort, but both were nice, but what stood out to me was someone reminded Carter that he is a bad dude. This was the most complete, confident game he played and I don’t just mean the threes. He stopped deferring to Bagley and was assertive for himself. That energy translated on both ends. That will translate into future games.
Whoever had the talk with Carter, needs to have it next with Duval. He’s capable of more than what we saw tonight. I’m not in the crew who piles on Duval, I really like what he brings, I just think he has more to give especially against an overmatched team like tonight.
Lastly, I love watching the slow growth of Bolden. This is why we all love college hoops and bemoan 1&D sometimes. Injures and slowly learning, as many big men do, he is starting to be a very dangous contributor, especially on D. And that is all he needs to be for this team. It is showing up in his demeanor which is great to see.

Too bad UNC got caught up watching our game and weren’t prepared for their own!:rolleyes:

Good post.

In regards Duval take a look at tonight’s top 5 plays. The absolute top play involved Trickys bloody amazing bullet pass to Alex for a lay up. Just pure perfection!

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/943690895647477761/video/1

Hauerwas
12-20-2017, 11:26 PM
That was beautiful. Great action on D, loved the full court pressure, the active hands and Bolden's length and blocks down low were impressive. We just showed tonight that we can play defense, it's all a matter of heart and desire.

Duvall made great decisions attacking the lane tonight, and Wendell stepping outside was fantastic. Just a game where we controlled everything exactly as we should have. Well done.

Lord Ash
12-21-2017, 05:43 AM
Random question, but the guys all had new protrusions under their jerseys on their middle upper back areas (about where their names are): Does anyone know what those were? I would assume some kind of padding (though that would be oddly placed) or part of an advanced metrics tracking rig. Whatever it is, it's new.

Yep, that's what it is; tracking and monitoring device.

And I am not sure what happened to Jordan... personally I suspect it might be a case of transferitis, but I could of course be wrong;)

Great game. OC is like a mix of Jon Scheyer and Luke Kennard... those hands, that IQ... something good happens every time he touches the ball.

uh_no
12-21-2017, 06:51 AM
Yep, that's what it is; tracking and monitoring device.

And I am not sure what happened to Jordan... personally I suspect it might be a case of transferitis, but I could of course be wrong;)

Great game. OC is like a mix of Jon Scheyer and Luke Kennard... those hands, that IQ... something good happens every time he touches the ball.

the semester's over. were he transferring, he would be gone.

weezie
12-21-2017, 07:12 AM
A nice palate cleanser game.

Hoping the team can solve the mysterious open back door defense under the basket conundrum before a better scoring team enters the arena. bc crushed the threes, sure, but all I want for Christmas is a solution to the sneak attack.

Lord Ash
12-21-2017, 07:32 AM
the semester's over. were he transferring, he would be gone.

Finals ended already, right? So that's likely. I hope; hate when a kid leaves!

Would love to see him more active and involved, though. The juxtaposition between his bench demeanour and Javin's was pretty noticeable.

stedge
12-21-2017, 08:18 AM
In the pregame radio show K noted JAvin had a “tight hamstring” and they were just being careful and holding him out. Tucker has a deep thigh bruise, so he was sitting tonight as well.

UrinalCake
12-21-2017, 08:37 AM
the semester's over. were he transferring, he would be gone.

The thought that crossed my mind is that he is waiting to get his grades back to make sure he passed all of his classes before applying for a transfer. He’s sitting out so that he can be eligibility for the spring 2019 semester. But this is all just speculation, hopefully it really is just a minor injury.

rsvman
12-21-2017, 08:39 AM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:

tbyers11
12-21-2017, 08:43 AM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:

According to Adam Rowe the substitute Crazies did chant Wendell's winning. I couldn't hear on my TV either.

https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/status/943650772750921728

Adam Rowe‏
@AdamRoweTDD
Follow Follow @AdamRoweTDD
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Wendell Carter has tied his career high with 20 points, and the Cameron Crazies are chanting "Wendell's winning". Evansville has 18.
5:14 PM - 20 Dec 2017

MChambers
12-21-2017, 08:48 AM
The defense is not fixed. It is, however, improved. Just important was the effort level was much better on that end.
Not just the effort, but the awareness of the ball, by the defenders off the ball. Grayson said earlier this week that the players needed not to be “hugging their man”. I noticed much better rotation against players driving to the bucket.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 08:48 AM
1) Welp. Carter showcased his full offensive skillset. Man of the match. Love his confidence in knocking down the 3. Really opens up Bags down low. I was beginning to think Carter was overrated. He clearly has the skillset.

2) Duval is fantastic. 21 minutes. 8 assists. 1 turnover. 0 3pt attempts. And so engaged on D. This wasn't a good opponent, but the effort on D was there. Somehow, I'm sure DBR will still throw Duval under the bus. Sigh...

3) Seems like Coach K doesn't want Allen running point. Goldwire with 18 minutes? Damn.....

4) FDD is happy! They worked on D with their days off! Looked effective but, more importantly, there was effort. The game against BC was lazy on D, rebounding, etc. That didn't really happen today. Hopefully, Duke can keep up the amazing effort on D.

uh_no
12-21-2017, 08:53 AM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:

they definitely did

uh_no
12-21-2017, 08:55 AM
2) Duval is fantastic. 21 minutes. 8 assists. 1 turnover. 0 3pt attempts. And so engaged on D. This wasn't a good opponent, but the effort on D was there. Somehow, I'm sure DBR will still throw Duval under the bus. Sigh...


up-thread someone said duval needed someone to light a fire under him because he didn't "show" enough last night.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 08:57 AM
up-thread someone said duval needed someone to light a fire under him because he didn't "show" enough last night.

Lol. Unbelievable. I don't get DBR sometimes...

Troublemaker
12-21-2017, 08:58 AM
Random question, but the guys all had new protrusions under their jerseys on their middle upper back areas (about where their names are): Does anyone know what those were? I would assume some kind of padding (though that would be oddly placed) or part of an advanced metrics tracking rig. Whatever it is, it's new.

Those are Catapults (https://www.catapultsports.com/about). You can see Tatum wearing one at Duke in this video (https://youtu.be/xyxyg-ebXnc?t=26s). Football uses them too (http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2016/09/the-year-of-the-beast-duke-football-going-beyond-the-weight-room-to-come-back-more-explosive-in-2016).

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jlim/files/2015/02/059325-5c40b01a-8276-11e4-917d-bf0f063a4996.jpg


He won't hit multiple threes every game, but even being a threat to take 15-foot jumpers will prevent the D from packing it in.

There actually is a huge difference. Even elite mid-range shooters like Chris Paul only nails them around ~45% of the time, which translates to a mere 90 offensive efficiency. Wendell should take threes and ditch the long 2s or midrange shots, which won't prevent the D from packing it in. I was elated with his shooting last night.


I think Carter can make 35-40% of those wide-open 3s. Will really open things up for Bagley down low in the high-low game if true.

Nice to see all the 3-balls dropping tonight. Need that confidence going into ACC play.

I think the star wars holiday christmas special is a good flick...but that doesn't make it true :D

His .500 looks good, right now, but I doubt it stays anywhere near that on the year. His FT% hints at a far inferior number...but we shall see! I'd be ecstatic with even 30%.


SkyBrickey did mention "wide-open 3s," and I think he's right that Wendell can shoot wide-open ones at that clip. He has a very nice stroke for a big man.

I mean, the threes he shot last night were practice shots. Evansville on defense was taking the extreme form of packing the paint, which is to double-team Bagley before the entry pass. Wendell had all the time in the world to set and shoot, and I do think he can hit 40% of those types of threes.



Whoever had the talk with Carter, needs to have it next with Duval. He’s capable of more than what we saw tonight. I’m not in the crew who piles on Duval, I really like what he brings, I just think he has more to give especially against an overmatched team like tonight.
Lastly, I love watching the slow growth of Bolden. This is why we all love college hoops and bemoan 1&D sometimes. Injures and slowly learning, as many big men do, he is starting to be a very dangous contributor, especially on D. And that is all he needs to be for this team. It is showing up in his demeanor which is great to see.

With Marques, his only issue now is that he's not an efficient post-scorer yet but we keep feeding it into him when he's in the game*. And with Trevon, the coaches could help him out some by setting ball screens for him more often so he doesn't feel like his role in the halfcourt is merely as an entry-passer. I would trade some Bolden postups for some Duval pick-n-rolls, in other words.

* Of course, this could fall under the category of development. It wouldn't take much to pay it off. If Marques gets us some key post buckets against quality ACC teams later on in the season, it will have been worth it to see him not finish now.

devildeac
12-21-2017, 09:04 AM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:


According to Adam Rowe the substitute Crazies did chant Wendell's winning. I couldn't hear on my TV either.

https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/status/943650772750921728

Adam Rowe‏
@AdamRoweTDD
Follow Follow @AdamRoweTDD
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Wendell Carter has tied his career high with 20 points, and the Cameron Crazies are chanting "Wendell's winning". Evansville has 18.
5:14 PM - 20 Dec 2017

Ozzie and I were there. It was indeed chanted. At least twice. :cool:

Matches
12-21-2017, 09:08 AM
My favorite stat was that, at halftime, we had recorded 18 assists. Evansville had 18 points.

Yea Evansville was badly overmatched, whatever. We did what we were supposed to do, in dominant fashion. Good game.

CajunDevil
12-21-2017, 09:10 AM
Not just the effort, but the awareness of the ball, by the defenders off the ball. Grayson said earlier this week that the players needed not to be “hugging their man”. I noticed much better rotation against players driving to the bucket.


Agreed. The awareness required to play help D was MUCH better last night. The effort was more consistent last night than pre-Evansville, and Duke's rotations were good (a few missed rotations) and much improved. A great first step.

jv001
12-21-2017, 09:15 AM
No MOM for last night's game? Plenty of players to choose from. GoDuke!

Henderson
12-21-2017, 09:52 AM
No MOM for last night's game? Plenty of players to choose from. GoDuke!

I think Wendell Carter Jr. grabbed that thread, threw it down, and went home to enjoy his Christmas.

MrPoon
12-21-2017, 10:07 AM
And with Trevon, the coaches could help him out some by setting ball screens for him more often so he doesn't feel like his role in the halfcourt is merely as an entry-passer. I would trade some Bolden postups for some Duval pick-n-rolls, in other words.

* Of course, this could fall under the category of development. It wouldn't take much to pay it off. If Marques gets us some key post buckets against quality ACC teams later on in the season, it will have been worth it to see him not finish now.

Troublemaker, thanks, that’s all I was alluding to. Duval has a chance at being our top defender with his quick feet and athleticism, his assist to turn over ratio this year is absurd for a freshman point guard especially one with such a high pace offense, we’re not walking up the ball), and when he turns it over, its typically not an errant pass but a drive that gets him stuck.
Where I want to see Duval grow is he seems either pass first Duval and he scores 4pts or Duval hunting for his shot and takes a few long, ill advised threes but also some great drives. I want Duval to find that balance. He can score at will inside. I’d love to see the offense help him drive and kick to a big man or finish himself. Right now he’s looking to pass or he gets stuck in the over-crowded lane. It’s part of the development of this team, but I see this offense with even more potential, and an aggressive Duval can help. Coaches need to help him find that balance.
In that vein, I think the plan tonight was to jump start Wendel’s offensive identity and BOY did that work, so perhaps Duval is next up. My comment wasn’t a criticism, its “Boy this cake is good! I’ll have some more please!” And in a game like this, the chance to build that balance seemed to be there.

Reilly
12-21-2017, 10:15 AM
...
Carter/Bagley 10-11 FTs

The other team's personnel is irrelevant to this stat ...

I'm hoping DBR takes this as a challenge during these holidays, and we get various FT data comparing FT% of non-conf/conf/ACCT/NCAA games, and games versus ranked teams. Does the flap of the butterfly's wing in having defend a better player/team or use more effort to execute well on offense then translate to a higher/lower FT% (higher b/c perhaps more engaged/alert/loose; lower perhaps b/c more tired).

Dukeford
12-21-2017, 10:21 AM
Why is Vrank so far down the bench these days??....even in a game like this?

CDu
12-21-2017, 10:30 AM
Why is Vrank so far down the bench these days??...even in a game like this?

Such is the fate of a third-string center. Especially on a team where we are trying to maximize reps for our young stars.

MChambers
12-21-2017, 10:32 AM
Those are Catapults (https://www.catapultsports.com/about). You can see Tatum wearing one at Duke in this video (https://youtu.be/xyxyg-ebXnc?t=26s). Football uses them too (http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2016/09/the-year-of-the-beast-duke-football-going-beyond-the-weight-room-to-come-back-more-explosive-in-2016).

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/jlim/files/2015/02/059325-5c40b01a-8276-11e4-917d-bf0f063a4996.jpg



There actually is a huge difference. Even elite mid-range shooters like Chris Paul only nails them around ~45% of the time, which translates to a mere 90 offensive efficiency. Wendell should take threes and ditch the long 2s or midrange shots, which won't prevent the D from packing it in. I was elated with his shooting last night.




SkyBrickey did mention "wide-open 3s," and I think he's right that Wendell can shoot wide-open ones at that clip. He has a very nice stroke for a big man.

I mean, the threes he shot last night were practice shots. Evansville on defense was taking the extreme form of packing the paint, which is to double-team Bagley before the entry pass. Wendell had all the time in the world to set and shoot, and I do think he can hit 40% of those types of threes.



With Marques, his only issue now is that he's not an efficient post-scorer yet but we keep feeding it into him when he's in the game*. And with Trevon, the coaches could help him out some by setting ball screens for him more often so he doesn't feel like his role in the halfcourt is merely as an entry-passer. I would trade some Bolden postups for some Duval pick-n-rolls, in other words.

* Of course, this could fall under the category of development. It wouldn't take much to pay it off. If Marques gets us some key post buckets against quality ACC teams later on in the season, it will have been worth it to see him not finish now.

I think Bolden’s low post game and Duval’s outside shooting are both development projects. Worth the investment now, because they both could pay off big later this season.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 10:45 AM
I think Bolden’s low post game and Duval’s outside shooting are both development projects. Worth the investment now, because they both could pay off big later this season.

I disagree with you on Bolden. We have two elite low post scorers. Do we really need another one? To me, that's something that's lower on the list then, say, Trent's distribution capabilities. I really don't see the value, even in March.

On Duval, I do agree. Having someone who can hit an open shot is key. However, we have 2 really good 3pt shooters and 2 potentially capable 3pt shooting big men. I want Duval to distribute, play the pick-and-roll, and drive to the rim. That's his bread-and-butter on offense. So he should continue doing it. But if the defense sags off by 6+ feet, take that damn 3! At long as you make ~35%+ of them.

curtis325
12-21-2017, 10:48 AM
Troublemaker, thanks, that’s all I was alluding to. Duval has a chance at being our top defender with his quick feet and athleticism, his assist to turn over ratio this year is absurd for a freshman point guard especially one with such a high pace offense, we’re not walking up the ball), and when he turns it over, its typically not an errant pass but a drive that gets him stuck.
Where I want to see Duval grow is he seems either pass first Duval and he scores 4pts or Duval hunting for his shot and takes a few long, ill advised threes but also some great drives. I want Duval to find that balance. He can score at will inside. I’d love to see the offense help him drive and kick to a big man or finish himself. Right now he’s looking to pass or he gets stuck in the over-crowded lane. It’s part of the development of this team, but I see this offense with even more potential, and an aggressive Duval can help. Coaches need to help him find that balance.
In that vein, I think the plan tonight was to jump start Wendel’s offensive identity and BOY did that work, so perhaps Duval is next up. My comment wasn’t a criticism, its “Boy this cake is good! I’ll have some more please!” And in a game like this, the chance to build that balance seemed to be there.

More for me too, please. It looked to me that on one of Duval's forays into the lane he was going for a Westbrook-style dunk but something went slightly wrong. I don't mind seeing him be aggressive on his drives. Duke fans will see plenty of amazing things from TD this season!

Neals384
12-21-2017, 10:52 AM
Those are Catapults (https://www.catapultsports.com/about). You can see Tatum wearing one at Duke in this video (https://youtu.be/xyxyg-ebXnc?t=26s). Football uses them too (http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2016/09/the-year-of-the-beast-duke-football-going-beyond-the-weight-room-to-come-back-more-explosive-in-2016).

I checked the specs on those catapults. They record acceleration - vertical as well as horizontal - up to 16Gs. That should be fine for everyone except Bagley.

MChambers
12-21-2017, 10:55 AM
I checked the specs on those catapults. They record acceleration - vertical as well as horizontal - up to 16Gs. That should be fine for everyone except Bagley.

They’d immediately short out if placed on Patrick Davidson.

Billy Dat
12-21-2017, 10:59 AM
We just showed tonight that we can play defense, it's all a matter of heart and desire.

Not to pick on you, because many people say the same thing, but defense is really technical. Heart and desire are the minimum requirement to even see the floor during a game. Our defense tends to stink because a variety of things happen when guys are playing hard including really bad rotations, helping off good 3 point shooters when the post doesn't need to be doubled, getting wedged under the rim as a rebounder, getting stuck behind screens as your man sprints from baseline to the perimeter, not communicating screens to your teammates, etc. I think it's too easy to say we aren't trying hard enough when our defense is bad. I do believe, though, the idea that a poor offensive performance can lead a team to let their defense lag. Luckily, our usual top 5 offense doesn't have many of those nights. If our defensive effort was lacking, I think you'd hear K say so more often. It's rare that he dogs our effort, but he will criticize our execution.


Not just the effort, but the awareness of the ball, by the defenders off the ball. Grayson said earlier this week that the players needed not to be “hugging their man”. I noticed much better rotation against players driving to the bucket.

The D was better, but it's hard to judge against a really depleted squad. Still, we handed them the beat down we needed to.

As much as I am tempted to comment about this or that with our offense, we have the #1 offense in the country. It will be interesting to see how we adjust to ACC caliber defense over the course of the season, but we have so many weapons that I have full belief that offense will not be an issue. How far we go, aside from staying healthy, pretty much rests with how good of a defensive team we can be. With as good as our offense is, I wonder what it will take? UNC's 2009 title team had a final KenPom D of 18, that's the lowest I could find for a title team.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 11:05 AM
Not to pick on you, because many people say the same thing, but defense is really technical. Heart and desire are the minimum requirement to even see the floor during a game. Our defense tends to stink because a variety of things happen when guys are playing hard including really bad rotations, helping off good 3 point shooters when the post doesn't need to be doubled, getting wedged under the rim as a rebounder, getting stuck behind screens as your man sprints from baseline to the perimeter, not communicating screens to your teammates, etc. I think it's too easy to say we aren't trying hard enough when our defense is bad. I do believe, though, the idea that a poor offensive performance can lead a team to let their defense lag. Luckily, our usual top 5 offense doesn't have many of those nights. If our defensive effort was lacking, I think you'd hear K say so more often. It's rare that he dogs our effort, but he will criticize our execution.

I agree with you, but important to note that Duke hasn't shown a lot of effort on the defensive end. This time around, Duval, Carter, and Bagley - three of the biggest culprits on lackluster D - were hustling. I was so impressed with Duval, who clearly made defense a priority in this game. I feel as though the defense feeds off Duval's full-court harassment. Tough to tell if this will work against ACC-level competition, but safe to say that trying on D is better than not trying on D.

rsvman
12-21-2017, 11:20 AM
I disagree with you on Bolden. We have two elite low post scorers. Do we really need another one? To me, that's something that's lower on the list then, say, Trent's distribution capabilities. I really don't see the value, even in March...

How quickly we forget!


Although, upon reflection, it has been almost 14 years....

Kedsy
12-21-2017, 12:30 PM
UNC's 2009 title team had a final KenPom D of 18, that's the lowest I could find for a title team.

I have 10 years of pre-tournament Pomeroy data. Going into the tournament in those 10 years, four national champions (40%) had KenPom D worse than 18:

2009 UNC: #35
2011 UConn: #31
2015 Duke: #57
2017 UNC: #25

All four of those teams greatly improved those defensive rankings during the tournament. So my theory is you need to be not-dreadful on D for the season and have the capability to play great D in the tournament. Can this year's Duke team get to not-dreadful for the season? No question in my mind. Do we have the ability to play great D for a six game stretch in the tournament? I think so, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

jimsumner
12-21-2017, 12:40 PM
I disagree with you on Bolden. We have two elite low post scorers. Do we really need another one? To me, that's something that's lower on the list then, say, Trent's distribution capabilities. I really don't see the value, even in March.

.

Not if we assume Carter and Bolden can play 40 effective minutes every night without getting tired, will never get into foul trouble, will never get sick or injured.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 12:44 PM
Not if we assume Carter and Bolden can play 40 effective minutes every night without getting tired, will never get into foul trouble, will never get sick or injured.

Then we'll have one low post scorer on the court at all times. So? Duke rarely has two low post scorers. It would be nice for Bolden to score more, but it's a luxury. Lots of other things to work on.

Billy Dat
12-21-2017, 12:55 PM
I have 10 years of pre-tournament Pomeroy data. Going into the tournament in those 10 years, four national champions (40%) had KenPom D worse than 18:

2009 UNC: #35
2011 UConn: #31
2015 Duke: #57
2017 UNC: #25

All four of those teams greatly improved those defensive rankings during the tournament. So my theory is you need to be not-dreadful on D for the season and have the capability to play great D in the tournament. Can this year's Duke team get to not-dreadful for the season? No question in my mind. Do we have the ability to play great D for a six game stretch in the tournament? I think so, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

As a non-subscriber I was going by the final, post-tournament numbers available on the homepage. Are the rankings you posted post-regular season and pre-conference tournament or do they include the conference tournaments? I only ask because I am curious why the system allows for such dramatic increases over a relatively short swath of games? Is it because the competition is usually so good? Is it because being one of the few teams left playing allows one to leap over stationary teams?

Even among that list, our 2015 team seems like an outlier. We really got our act together in a hurry that year.

Troublemaker
12-21-2017, 01:09 PM
I agree with you, but important to note that Duke hasn't shown a lot of effort on the defensive end. This time around, Duval, Carter, and Bagley - three of the biggest culprits on lackluster D - were hustling. I was so impressed with Duval, who clearly made defense a priority in this game. I feel as though the defense feeds off Duval's full-court harassment. Tough to tell if this will work against ACC-level competition, but safe to say that trying on D is better than not trying on D.

While there may be some truth to "Duke played harder," when you ball-pressure out high and deny the wings aggressively for 40 minutes, it's a defense that just naturally looks more energetic as well. I think that's a little bit of what you were seeing. In previous games, we laid back on defense a lot in the halfcourt, and in this game, we were attacking their ball-handlers. If we continue to do that going forward, it's possible Goldwire returns to the rotation to help Trevon with the 40 minutes of ball-pressure.

duketaylor
12-21-2017, 01:18 PM
I didn't see any zone D, but also didn't see all of it.

Phoenix22
12-21-2017, 01:30 PM
Random question, but the guys all had new protrusions under their jerseys on their middle upper back areas (about where their names are): Does anyone know what those were? I would assume some kind of padding (though that would be oddly placed) or part of an advanced metrics tracking rig. Whatever it is, it's new.

I've noticed that this season. My though is that it is from hanging up the jerseys, but not sure.

devildeac
12-21-2017, 01:33 PM
I see no MOTM poll and I don't know how to create one (:o) so I'll vote for Mr. Carter here while also adding to the post count on this thread so it may eventually exceed the one on the lying, cheating bastards' glorious loss last PM.

jimsumner
12-21-2017, 01:34 PM
Then we'll have one low post scorer on the court at all times. So? Duke rarely has two low post scorers. It would be nice for Bolden to score more, but it's a luxury. Lots of other things to work on.

I'm not sure why developing Bolden and developing Duval are mutually exclusive. But both Carter and Bagley are working on developing their perimeter skills. I suspect that having an effective low-post option would accelerate that development and make Duke more difficult to defend and perhaps allow Bagley to play more small forward.

And keep in mind that neither Carter nor Bagley is likely to be in Durham next season. Bolden likely will be. Improvements in his game should not only help Duke this season but also next season.

Billy Dat
12-21-2017, 01:36 PM
I've noticed that this season. My though is that it is from hanging up the jerseys, but not sure.

I only noticed it on Bagley which I assumed was from his wearing Ferry's jersey after it hang in the rafters for 30 some odd years. That kind of wear isn't going to come out with a few passes of the iron.

Phoenix22
12-21-2017, 01:36 PM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:


They did chant Wendell's winning, in the second half!

Kedsy
12-21-2017, 01:45 PM
As a non-subscriber I was going by the final, post-tournament numbers available on the homepage. Are the rankings you posted post-regular season and pre-conference tournament or do they include the conference tournaments? I only ask because I am curious why the system allows for such dramatic increases over a relatively short swath of games? Is it because the competition is usually so good? Is it because being one of the few teams left playing allows one to leap over stationary teams?

Even among that list, our 2015 team seems like an outlier. We really got our act together in a hurry that year.

They include conference tournaments. I'm not sure why the rankings can increase so dramatically over the small number of games. I know KenPom used to give recent games more weight, but I don't know if he still does that (and, if he doesn't, I don't know when he stopped).

Whatever the reason, it would appear that both in-season rankings and past end-of-season rankings have less predictive value than many people assume.

I also know that in 2015, the difference between #57 and #12 (pre-T) was approximately 4.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, or just under 3 points per game. Similarly, the difference between our current #69 and #7 is currently 7.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, or less than 5.5 points per game. Obviously it's a little more complicated, depending on opponent and in how many games we could have been better, but if this season we'd given up, on average, one fewer 3-point basket and one fewer late-game layup, we might be a top 10 KenPom defense right now and nobody would be stressing over it.

Over 30 games, a 5.5 ppg improvement might be a lot, but over six games, maybe not.

CDu
12-21-2017, 02:01 PM
They include conference tournaments. I'm not sure why the rankings can increase so dramatically over the small number of games. I know KenPom used to give recent games more weight, but I don't know if he still does that (and, if he doesn't, I don't know when he stopped).

Whatever the reason, it would appear that both in-season rankings and past end-of-season rankings have less predictive value than many people assume.

I also know that in 2015, the difference between #57 and #12 (pre-T) was approximately 4.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, or just under 3 points per game. Similarly, the difference between our current #69 and #7 is currently 7.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, or less than 5.5 points per game. Obviously it's a little more complicated, depending on opponent and in how many games we could have been better, but if this season we'd given up, on average, one fewer 3-point basket and one fewer late-game layup, we might be a top 10 KenPom defense right now and nobody would be stressing over it.

Over 30 games, a 5.5 ppg improvement might be a lot, but over six games, maybe not.

It's not just 6 games though. The tourney performance has to be sufficiently good to move an entire season's rating by X points. In 2015, it had to shift a 40-game performance by 3 points in just 6 games. That would mean (holding possessions equal), we'd have to perform about 20 points better to move the season-long needle by 3 points.

For example, let's say we played 34 games with a defensive rating of 100. In order to get our 40-game rating down to 97, we'd have to play the next six games with a defensive rating of 80 [(34*100 + 6*80)/40].

Now, I'm guessing that Pomeroy does weight the tourney more heavily, which would make it easier to see more movement on both ends (teams that lose early see their rating s drop, while teams that stay alive see their ratings rise) more quickly. But still, it was a pretty drastic change in performance from pre-NCAAs to NCAAs.

stillcrazie
12-21-2017, 02:03 PM
My only disappointment was that they didn't chant "Wendell's winning" when Carter hit the three to take his point total to 20 while Evansville had 18.


I'm willing to give the Crazies a pass because the game took place during the winter break after finals and a lot of them weren't there, but we need to make sure omissions like this don't happen again. :cool:

I was there and we chanted it several times!

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 02:03 PM
I'm not sure why developing Bolden and developing Duval are mutually exclusive. But both Carter and Bagley are working on developing their perimeter skills. I suspect that having an effective low-post option would accelerate that development and make Duke more difficult to defend and perhaps allow Bagley to play more small forward.

And keep in mind that neither Carter nor Bagley is likely to be in Durham next season. Bolden likely will be. Improvements in his game should not only help Duke this season but also next season.

Ummmmm...I'm not arguing the mutual exclusivity of Bolden and Duval. I never said that. I am arguing that having a third low post scorer should be low on Duke's priority list.

Also, I don't really see much "Bagley as a 3" option. He gets burned - a lot - by perimeter players. It could happen, but I'm not sure how having a ANOTHER low-post scorer enables Bagley to play the 3. Everyone on the floor doesn't need to be a good scorer.

I really hope Bolden focuses on his defense, his communication, his rebounding, and his opportunistic scoring (alley oops, put backs, etc). As for next year, I agree it's important. But I'm not banking on Bolden necessarily being at Duke.

flyingdutchdevil
12-21-2017, 02:06 PM
While there may be some truth to "Duke played harder," when you ball-pressure out high and deny the wings aggressively for 40 minutes, it's a defense that just naturally looks more energetic as well. I think that's a little bit of what you were seeing. In previous games, we laid back on defense a lot in the halfcourt, and in this game, we were attacking their ball-handlers. If we continue to do that going forward, it's possible Goldwire returns to the rotation to help Trevon with the 40 minutes of ball-pressure.

You may be right. But I saw a lot less matador D. Of course, that could easily be the opponent. But we also know that Duke emphasized defense, defense, and more defense during the time off. I suspect that effort was a big part of that message and practice.

Duke certainly played harder on D. I have no doubt in my mind. Whether that translates to better D against ACC comp is the question (and I really think it does. But we'll know in...ummmm...10 days. Crap. Guess I'll spend time with the family).

MrPoon
12-21-2017, 02:36 PM
I'm not sure why developing Bolden and developing Duval are mutually exclusive. But both Carter and Bagley are working on developing their perimeter skills. I suspect that having an effective low-post option would accelerate that development and make Duke more difficult to defend and perhaps allow Bagley to play more small forward.

And keep in mind that neither Carter nor Bagley is likely to be in Durham next season. Bolden likely will be. Improvements in his game should not only help Duke this season but also next season.

Strongly agree. Not just because of injury or foul trouble (but that is important), but I can see several plays such as a pick and roll with Carter or Bagley at the top of they key, Duval splits, Bolden (as the second big) sets a low post cross screen on his man. If D doesn’t recover, Duval can finish (even it it does!) but Bolden being there at the edge of the paint ready for a dump off if Duval can’t finish. I could go on. I think Bolden is defentely a key defensive contributor for this team but his size offers some real advantages against a second unit (he is most likely facing a team’s third big man or a tired starter). If we build an identity of post scoring, keep it coming even when Bolden is in. I think his trajectory the last five ish games has me really excited! But think he and Duval can help each other on some simpler offensive sets. Not as the first or the second option, but with 10 sec to go, something simple to get to the basket.

Kedsy
12-21-2017, 02:52 PM
It's not just 6 games though. The tourney performance has to be sufficiently good to move an entire season's rating by X points. In 2015, it had to shift a 40-game performance by 3 points in just 6 games. That would mean (holding possessions equal), we'd have to perform about 20 points better to move the season-long needle by 3 points.

I realize that, but there's no way we did perform 20 points better (or, more accurately, about 16.5 points better since we'd played 33 games to that point), so there must be something else to his algorithm, most likely a heavy weighting of recent games.

But the reasoning behind my comment was, if 3 points was the difference between #57 and #12, and we performed 3 points better, we were performing like the #12 team for those six games, no matter what our final rating ended up. That our rating went all the way down to #12 (or actually #11, I guess) suggests we performed way better than the #12 team for those six games, which I suppose is all that matters.

In other words, if our season-long rating leading up to the tournament was 113.4 (currently #335 D ranking in KenPom), but during the tournament we played 25 points-per-hundred-possessions better, to an 88.4 (currently #3 D ranking in KenPom), then our defense was a top 3 defense for those six games, despite the fact that is was so awful prior to that. The catch is there aren't too many (if any) teams that could play so terribly for 33 games but still have the ability to suddenly play so well for six.

Devilwin
12-21-2017, 03:44 PM
Was very impressed with the defense last night. I believe they are headed in the right direction.

sagegrouse
12-21-2017, 03:52 PM
It's not just 6 games though. The tourney performance has to be sufficiently good to move an entire season's rating by X points. In 2015, it had to shift a 40-game performance by 3 points in just 6 games. That would mean (holding possessions equal), we'd have to perform about 20 points better to move the season-long needle by 3 points.

For example, let's say we played 34 games with a defensive rating of 100. In order to get our 40-game rating down to 97, we'd have to play the next six games with a defensive rating of 80 [(34*100 + 6*80)/40].

Now, I'm guessing that Pomeroy does weight the tourney more heavily, which would make it easier to see more movement on both ends (teams that lose early see their rating s drop, while teams that stay alive see their ratings rise) more quickly. But still, it was a pretty drastic change in performance from pre-NCAAs to NCAAs.

CDu -- I thought Pomeroy always weighted more recent games more heavily, in which case the sic NCAA games would have more importance. Surely, one of our advanced stat mavens has a ready anser to this.

Kindly, Sage

pfrduke
12-21-2017, 03:57 PM
CDu -- I thought Pomeroy always weighted more recent games more heavily, in which case the sic NCAA games would have more importance. Surely, one of our advanced stat mavens has a ready anser to this.

Kindly, Sage

This is not a direct answer, but I went back and checked the predicted score for each game in the tourney run. In each game, we out-performed expectation in terms of raw points (I can't see what the predicted pace was, so this isn't a perfect comparison and some of the improvement may have been pace related, rather than actual defensive improvement).

Robert Morris - predicted to score 64, actually scored 56
San Diego St - predicted 60, actual 49
Utah - predicted 66, actual 57
Gonzaga - predicted 74, actual 52
Michigan St - predicted 68, actual 61
Wisconsin - predicted 70, actual 63

rsvman
12-21-2017, 04:11 PM
Not if we assume Carter and Bolden can play 40 effective minutes every night without getting tired, will never get into foul trouble, will never get sick or injured.

Or foul out. Did not a single person understand my earlier post?!?

Billy Dat
12-21-2017, 04:16 PM
This is not a direct answer, but I went back and checked the predicted score for each game in the tourney run.

You reminded me of something I meant to mention earlier...when I was on KenPom earlier, I looked up Evansville and there is one category for which they are ranked #1 in the country......LUCK......which is KenPom's calculation of performance vs expected performance. They outperformed their expectation more than any other team in America thus far this season. Something tells me last night will hurt them on that score.

Kedsy
12-21-2017, 04:29 PM
Something tells me last night will hurt them on that score.

Maybe not. I haven't re-checked this, but my understanding of the "luck" metric is it compares what your win/loss record should be, based on your oRtg and dRtg, to what it actually is. Since Evansville was expected to lose to Duke, I'm not sure luck would be affected. Since the massive loss probably hurts their overall ratings, their "luck" might actually go up (if it could go up from #1), because their predicted win/loss record would go down, but their actual win/loss record would stay the same.

DukieInBrasil
12-21-2017, 04:34 PM
Strongly agree. Not just because of injury or foul trouble (but that is important), but I can see several plays such as a pick and roll with Carter or Bagley at the top of they key, Duval splits, Bolden (as the second big) sets a low post cross screen on his man. If D doesn’t recover, Duval can finish (even it it does!) but Bolden being there at the edge of the paint ready for a dump off if Duval can’t finish. I could go on. I think Bolden is defentely a key defensive contributor for this team but his size offers some real advantages against a second unit (he is most likely facing a team’s third big man or a tired starter). If we build an identity of post scoring, keep it coming even when Bolden is in. I think his trajectory the last five ish games has me really excited! But think he and Duval can help each other on some simpler offensive sets. Not as the first or the second option, but with 10 sec to go, something simple to get to the basket.

I like what i've seen of Bolden recently, particularly on the defensive end, but i have yet to be impressed by Bolden on offense. He's just not found a way to use his skillset to be effective on offense, especially as a back to the basket player. For example, against Evansville, a team with no inside presence, he shot 1-3 FGs. Even in his career-high scoring game, half his points came from rebounding his own misses, over guys 4 inches shorter than him.
I just don't expect for Duke to look for much offense from Bolden this year, although his defensive acumen seems to be an asset and something K will look for him to provide on a regular basis.

jimsumner
12-21-2017, 05:21 PM
Or foul out. Did not a single person understand my earlier post?!?

I thought "get into foul trouble" covered that contingency.

Troublemaker
12-21-2017, 05:57 PM
Or foul out. Did not a single person understand my earlier post?!?

A reference to Duke/UConn '04, I'm sure.

OldPhiKap
12-21-2017, 07:25 PM
I always watch (and recommend) the post-game press conferences of both coaches. Bless his heart, the Evansville press conference looks like a hostage video.

My favorite (paraphrased and not quite right):

“Q: you turned the ball over 21 times. What did Duke do?”

“A: they pressured the sh** out of us.”

Dude looks like he just finished a full day cross-examination.

Troublemaker
12-21-2017, 10:04 PM
Marvin and Wendell have combined to shoot 16 for 40 (40% accuracy) on threes this season in 13 games.

So, a combined 1.2 makes/game on 3.1 attempts/game.

Man, I am curious what would happen if they upped it to a combined 8 attempts / game.

rsvman
12-21-2017, 11:30 PM
I thought "get into foul trouble" covered that contingency.

My bad. My brain must've glided right over that.

rsvman
12-21-2017, 11:32 PM
A reference to Duke/UConn '04, I'm sure.

Ding, ding, ding! Tell this man about our fabulous prizes, Johnny.

uh_no
12-22-2017, 12:15 AM
I realize that, but there's no way we did perform 20 points better (or, more accurately, about 16.5 points better since we'd played 33 games to that point), so there must be something else to his algorithm, most likely a heavy weighting of recent games.


the post-tournament rankings are descriptive more than prescriptive....the team that won the national championship did so BECAUSE they played efficient ball. If they didn't play stellar, they probably wouldn't have been champions....so in general you expect a bump, especially if the team that ends up winning is not greatly ranking on one side of the ball coming in.

furthering that, the "stellar" performances are also de-facto against pretty good teams....so that's a HUGE bump after adjustment....especially if it ran counter to what the computer expected coming in.


so the take away? if a team plays great defense in the tournament, their rating will get a big bump. they will also have a good chance to win the thing. the question of which teams are capable of doing that is open. Like you, I think this team can, though I do hope to see some decent ACC performances before i can really get excited.

lotusland
12-22-2017, 08:01 AM
I disagree with you on Bolden. We have two elite low post scorers. Do we really need another one? To me, that's something that's lower on the list then, say, Trent's distribution capabilities. I really don't see the value, even in March.

On Duval, I do agree. Having someone who can hit an open shot is key. However, we have 2 really good 3pt shooters and 2 potentially capable 3pt shooting big men. I want Duval to distribute, play the pick-and-roll, and drive to the rim. That's his bread-and-butter on offense. So he should continue doing it. But if the defense sags off by 6+ feet, take that damn 3! At long as you make ~35%+ of them.

Well it’s probably valuable to keep Marquese engaged. He’s been wearing a smile more lately and we need a big contribution from him this year and next year. This year Duke is built to press and play fast so Bolden needs to play and score. He’s not a perimeter threat so he’s not a threat at all if not in the post. Duke with Bolden and Duval in half court sets would be 3 against 5 if Bolden is not an option.

Generally speaking I think the offense needs to run through the bigs so Bolden needs to develop both scoring and passing.

Troublemaker
12-22-2017, 08:39 AM
Well it’s probably valuable to keep Marquese engaged. He’s been wearing a smile more lately and we need a big contribution from him this year and next year. This year Duke is built to press and play fast so Bolden needs to play and score. He’s not a perimeter threat so he’s not a threat at all if not in the post. Duke with Bolden and Duval in half court sets would be 3 against 5 if Bolden is not an option.

Generally speaking I think the offense needs to run through the bigs so Bolden needs to develop both scoring and passing.

I think when Marques is in the game with Trevon, we should be running pick-n-roll (PNR). I think Marques projects to be a good roller with his height, wingspan, and athleticism. (If we go back to his high school videos on youtube, he catches a lot of lobs for dunks). Also, the NBA is a PNR league, so they care much more about how well Marques rolls than how well he posts up. Similarly, this would allow Trevon to display his PNR skills, which again project to be good because of his handle, quickness, and finishing ability around the rim. Right now, Trevon is eating in transition but it would be nice to have a set for him in the halfcourt as well; we run everything for Marvin, Wendell, and Grayson as of right now and even when Marques is in the game, we try to post him.

This ties in with my intrigue over Wendell and Marvin's three-point shooting ability. Both of those guys are hyper-aware that the NBA loves big men that can shoot. For example, here's a quote from Wendell in this article from the Ringer about the McDonald's All-American game (https://www.theringer.com/2017/3/30/16039706/we-saw-the-future-of-basketball-and-in-it-everyone-looks-like-a-unicorn-7c705d2aeeff): "The game of basketball is definitely evolving. You don’t see too many of the Shaqs or Hakeem Olajuwons anymore. You see guys shooting from the 3 a lot more. That’s something I’m trying to incorporate into my game." (And his hard work seems to maybe be paying off, with help from Duke's coaches.) If we take a few possessions to run spread PNR with Trevon, I don't think our bigs would mind. So, for example, Bagley in the corner, Grayson and O'Connell on the wings, with Marques coming out to set the screen for Trevon, trying to free him going downhill towards the basket. If Bagley's man helps off, Trevon pitches it to him in the corner so he can show off his 3-pt shooting.

COYS
12-22-2017, 01:48 PM
I think when Marques is in the game with Trevon, we should be running pick-n-roll (PNR). I think Marques projects to be a good roller with his height, wingspan, and athleticism. (If we go back to his high school videos on youtube, he catches a lot of lobs for dunks). Also, the NBA is a PNR league, so they care much more about how well Marques rolls than how well he posts up. Similarly, this would allow Trevon to display his PNR skills, which again project to be good because of his handle, quickness, and finishing ability around the rim. Right now, Trevon is eating in transition but it would be nice to have a set for him in the halfcourt as well; we run everything for Marvin, Wendell, and Grayson as of right now and even when Marques is in the game, we try to post him.

This ties in with my intrigue over Wendell and Marvin's three-point shooting ability. Both of those guys are hyper-aware that the NBA loves big men that can shoot. For example, here's a quote from Wendell in this article from the Ringer about the McDonald's All-American game (https://www.theringer.com/2017/3/30/16039706/we-saw-the-future-of-basketball-and-in-it-everyone-looks-like-a-unicorn-7c705d2aeeff): "The game of basketball is definitely evolving. You don’t see too many of the Shaqs or Hakeem Olajuwons anymore. You see guys shooting from the 3 a lot more. That’s something I’m trying to incorporate into my game." (And his hard work seems to maybe be paying off, with help from Duke's coaches.) If we take a few possessions to run spread PNR with Trevon, I don't think our bigs would mind. So, for example, Bagley in the corner, Grayson and O'Connell on the wings, with Marques coming out to set the screen for Trevon, trying to free him going downhill towards the basket. If Bagley's man helps off, Trevon pitches it to him in the corner so he can show off his 3-pt shooting.

Excellent analysis, as always. I couldn't agree more. Even though Marvin is clearly our go-to guy and Grayson and Wendell are super-efficient options 1b and 1c, it will only make our primary scoring plays more potent if we switch it up every once in a while. I mentioned this awhile back, but there is a reason why it's actually smart to run plays that are less likely to be as efficient from time to time . . . kind of like how game theory in baseball dictates that it's actually smart for a pitcher to swing away instead of going for a sacrifice on occasion so that the defense can't cheat in so much as to reduce the chances of future sacrifices being successful. The best thing for Duke this year is that we have so much offensive talent, our "less efficient" change-of-pace options are actually enticing. PNR with Trevon and Marques with Marvin, Gary, and Grayson camped out along the perimeter sounds like a nice play to run on occasion. It gives Trevon a chance to do what he does best by attacking the basket, it gives Marvin and/or Wendell a chance to sink a potentially wide-open three, and it gives opposing defenses something more to think about. Even if that play isn't our most efficient option, it is unlikely to be a bad option and it has the potential to keep the defense honest when we run our go-to sets.

OldPhiKap
12-22-2017, 02:03 PM
Saw on Facebook that OldestNiecePK sang the national anthem before the game. Proud uncle.

Henderson
12-22-2017, 03:11 PM
Saw on Facebook that OldestNiecePK sang the national anthem before the game. Proud uncle.

Clear that young woman's calendar for the entire spring.

jv001
12-22-2017, 03:12 PM
I think when Marques is in the game with Trevon, we should be running pick-n-roll (PNR). I think Marques projects to be a good roller with his height, wingspan, and athleticism. (If we go back to his high school videos on youtube, he catches a lot of lobs for dunks). Also, the NBA is a PNR league, so they care much more about how well Marques rolls than how well he posts up. Similarly, this would allow Trevon to display his PNR skills, which again project to be good because of his handle, quickness, and finishing ability around the rim. Right now, Trevon is eating in transition but it would be nice to have a set for him in the halfcourt as well; we run everything for Marvin, Wendell, and Grayson as of right now and even when Marques is in the game, we try to post him.

This ties in with my intrigue over Wendell and Marvin's three-point shooting ability. Both of those guys are hyper-aware that the NBA loves big men that can shoot. For example, here's a quote from Wendell in this article from the Ringer about the McDonald's All-American game (https://www.theringer.com/2017/3/30/16039706/we-saw-the-future-of-basketball-and-in-it-everyone-looks-like-a-unicorn-7c705d2aeeff): "The game of basketball is definitely evolving. You don’t see too many of the Shaqs or Hakeem Olajuwons anymore. You see guys shooting from the 3 a lot more. That’s something I’m trying to incorporate into my game." (And his hard work seems to maybe be paying off, with help from Duke's coaches.) If we take a few possessions to run spread PNR with Trevon, I don't think our bigs would mind. So, for example, Bagley in the corner, Grayson and O'Connell on the wings, with Marques coming out to set the screen for Trevon, trying to free him going downhill towards the basket. If Bagley's man helps off, Trevon pitches it to him in the corner so he can show off his 3-pt shooting.

PicknRoll. 1-3-1 zone, pressure and trap the ball. Yeh, I like all of those. GoDuke!

OldPhiKap
12-22-2017, 03:22 PM
Clear that young woman's calendar for the entire spring.

She'll be in a tent right outside. I'm sure that she would not mind an early entry into Cameron!

devildeac
12-22-2017, 05:46 PM
Saw on Facebook that OldestNiecePK sang the national anthem before the game. Proud uncle.

I coulda sworn it was a guy singing. Ozzie, help me out here...

uh_no
12-22-2017, 05:53 PM
I coulda sworn it was a guy singing. Ozzie, help me out here...

definitely was a guy. could opk have been talking about the DWBB game?

devildeac
12-22-2017, 05:59 PM
definitely was a guy. could opk have been talking about the DWBB game?

That could be it. Thanks for the back-up.

plimnko
12-22-2017, 06:07 PM
definitely was a guy. could opk have been talking about the DWBB game?

can't be too sure these days lol

jimsumner
12-22-2017, 06:56 PM
A young man sang the national anthem before the men's game against Evansville. Voice, okay. Artistic interpretation, not so okay.

A young woman sang the national anthem before the women's game against Wyoming.

It might have been the best individual anthem I've ever heard at a Duke game. Wynkoop's Duke group is peerless but on an individual level, I just loved this performance. Voice, tempo, artistic choices? All first rate.

As you might imagine, I hear the national anthem a lot and the bulk of them range from bad to really bad. I call it the American Idolization of American culture. Why sing it straight when you can turn it into a dirge and draw attention to yourself by stretching a syllable into four or five and try and fail to hit notes well outside your range?

So, it's a real treat to hear it sung both right and well. Kudos.

uh_no
12-22-2017, 07:05 PM
A young man sang the national anthem before the men's game against Evansville. Voice, okay. Artistic interpretation, not so okay.

A young woman sang the national anthem before the women's game against Wyoming.

It might have been the best individual anthem I've ever heard at a Duke game. Wynkoop's Duke group is peerless but on an individual level, I just loved this performance. Voice, tempo, artistic choices? All first rate.

As you might imagine, I hear the national anthem a lot and the bulk of them range from bad to really bad. I call it the American Idolization of American culture. Why sing it straight when you can turn it into a dirge and draw attention to yourself by stretching a syllable into four or five and try and fail to hit notes well outside your range?

So, it's a real treat to hear it sung both right and well. Kudos.

there was one woman who sang it earlier in the year who did a sound check just before doors opened. you would think doing a sound check would be a good thing...but the bad part was I had to hear it again at game time. She tried to repeat "of the brave" at the end (who knows why...), but the drummer started the "lets go duke" bit and that was that.

As a musician, I appreciate the guts it takes to get up there and sing something that's not an intrinsically easy thing to sing a-capella...I just wish there was some self awareness about how one's ability should limit the embellishment to avoid embarrassment in the same way that a beginning pianist should likely not be attempting liszt etudes on their first recital.

I really appreciate that coach K stands at attention through it. I wish the singers would show it the same respect.

Wander
12-22-2017, 09:55 PM
but if this season we'd given up, on average, one fewer 3-point basket and one fewer late-game layup, we might be a top 10 KenPom defense right now and nobody would be stressing over it.

There's a tendency to make these kinds of statements as if 5 points per game is no big deal. It is. For example, compare it to home court advantage, which is about +/- 4 points in college basketball. So our defense giving up 5 less points a game is about the same as getting to play all our road games at home (an 8 point swing, but only for about half our games, so on average a 4 point advantage). Doesn't it sound like getting to play all our road games in Cameron would be a GIGANTIC advantage? That's about what we're talking about.

In other words, your statement is true, but is a little bit of a "other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln" type of statement.

OldPhiKap
12-22-2017, 10:23 PM
Thought it was the MBB game but perhaps it was WBB — can’t figure out how to link Facebook video.

Either way, I got thrown out of the Hideaway for singing once. So a big improvement for the young lady over her uncle. And a damn smart lady, too!

Maybe dd can get to the bottom of it, he knows my SisterPK who is the proud mother of OldestNiecePK and OnlyNephewPK.

Kedsy
12-22-2017, 10:23 PM
There's a tendency to make these kinds of statements as if 5 points per game is no big deal. It is. For example, compare it to home court advantage, which is about +/- 4 points in college basketball. So our defense giving up 5 less points a game is about the same as getting to play all our road games at home (an 8 point swing, but only for about half our games, so on average a 4 point advantage). Doesn't it sound like getting to play all our road games in Cameron would be a GIGANTIC advantage? That's about what we're talking about.

In other words, your statement is true, but is a little bit of a "other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln" type of statement.

Maybe. Though I also believe playing at Cameron vs. playing a true road game is way bigger than an 8 point swing, so who knows.

I would point out that someone (I think Pomeroy) has argued that you can't really affect your opponents' three-point shooting percentage. I'm not sure I believe that, but assuming it's true, if our opponents this season had a three-point shooting percentage (currently 34.9%) equal to our opponents' average for the past 5 seasons (combined: 30.2%), our opponents would have made 1.15 fewer threes per game against us, which comes out to almost 3.5 points per game. Which is also pretty close to the 4 points you're talking about. In addition, I haven't studied this in depth but I've observed that our opponents seem to score more (per possession) in garbage time than they do against our starters -- I know Pomeroy has some sort of adjustment, but I don't know if it's really enough to prevent one or two extra baskets at the end of games from getting added to our ledger. If it's not, then the entire difference between our current Pomeroy defensive rank of #73 and us being KenPom's #8 might be a random fluctuation in three-point shooting plus a garbage-time layup per game.

Or it might not. You're right that 5 points is a lot and this is all wild speculation during a week in which we don't have a game. I'm just saying it's possible our defense isn't nearly as bad as we're assuming it is.

uh_no
12-22-2017, 10:38 PM
Maybe. Though I also believe playing at Cameron vs. playing a true road game is way bigger than an 8 point swing, so who knows.

I would point out that someone (I think Pomeroy) has argued that you can't really affect your opponents' three-point shooting percentage. I'm not sure I believe that, but assuming it's true, if our opponents this season had a three-point shooting percentage (currently 34.9%) equal to our opponents' average for the past 5 seasons (combined: 30.2%), our opponents would have made 1.15 fewer threes per game against us, which comes out to almost 3.5 points per game. Which is also pretty close to the 4 points you're talking about. In addition, I haven't studied this in depth but I've observed that our opponents seem to score more (per possession) in garbage time than they do against our starters -- I know Pomeroy has some sort of adjustment, but I don't know if it's really enough to prevent one or two extra baskets at the end of games from getting added to our ledger. If it's not, then the entire difference between our current Pomeroy defensive rank of #73 and us being KenPom's #8 might be a random fluctuation in three-point shooting plus a garbage-time layup per game.

Or it might not. You're right that 5 points is a lot and this is all wild speculation during a week in which we don't have a game. I'm just saying it's possible our defense isn't nearly as bad as we're assuming it is.

you would expect garbage time fluctuation to largely similarly influence all top teams. I mean, maybe it's just working out worse for duke....but that seems unlikely....especially given that blowouts effect should be minimized anyway.

12 games is a huge number of trials for the opponents to hit an extra three above what you would intrinsically expect. That's like flipping heads 12 times in a row.....1/4000 chance. that's a lot of standard deviations away from the mean and allows you to emphatically reject the null hypothesis that the opponents were just getting lucky.

So yes, I can see a swing in one game being explainable....but we have too many games this year to claim that our defensive ranking is just bad luck.

I think it's likely that our defense has played about exactly as poorly as we're assuming it has.....I just don't think that's necessarily representative of how well we can play or could have played....but that's on us, not random chance.

Wander
12-22-2017, 10:48 PM
Or it might not. You're right that 5 points is a lot and this is all wild speculation during a week in which we don't have a game. I'm just saying it's possible our defense isn't nearly as bad as we're assuming it is.

I think our defense is accurately rated right now, but I'm way more optimistic about this team's chances to improve on that defense than I have been for past Duke teams (I still think it's one of the miracles of the universe that the 2015 team improved as much as they did, and as suddenly as they did, at the very end). That's due to a combination of good NBA level talent all around, increased flexibility from Coach K on the defensive end, health, and most importantly our athletic frontcourt.