Ringer Bagley Profile

[pfrduke]

Interesting read - in a way, suggests that while Bagley may be a generational talent, it's just in the wrong generation.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/12/18/16790032/marvin-bagley-2018-nba-draft-position

[Channing]

Totally agree. He needs to spend all 4 years in college working on his outside game. We'll just have to find a way to work him into the lineup in the coming years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Interesting article. To me, Bagley has a future similar to Jabari Parker. Parker was an obviously talented player with a lot of questions about his fit in the modern NBA. Could he defend NBA forwards? Could he shoot? After the first ACL team, Parker developed a consistent 3-point shot in his 3rd NBA season, which made his production and value shoot through the roof. He was suddenly a prototypical NBA stretch 4 that could also run the floor and jam it down low. Bagley has not shot well from the free throw line, which is a little troubling. But he hasn't been terrible, either. There's hope that his shot will develop enough to allow him to be super-sized Jabari-type player.

A couple of great landing spots for Bagley, with teams that have a solid defensive anchor in the post that can also hit from outside:

Celtics (Al Horford)
Pacers (Myles Turner)
76ers (Joel Embiid)
Bulls (Lauri Markannen - he has shown flashes of defensive upside while proving to be a 7-footer that can drain 3s)
Lakers (Brook Lopez)
Grizzlies (as mentioned in the article)

[MChambers]

Interesting read - in a way, suggests that while Bagley may be a generational talent, it's just in the wrong generation.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/12/18/16790032/marvin-bagley-2018-nba-draft-position

This is similar to what Troublemaker posted in the draft thread a few weeks back, before the Texas game. Hard to believe Bagley will have a hard time being a star in the NBA, but I really don’t watch much NBA, so I’m out of touch.

[OZ]

Interesting read - in a way, suggests that while Bagley may be a generational talent, it's just in the wrong generation.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/12/18/16790032/marvin-bagley-2018-nba-draft-position

While that may be, I am betting - barring injury - he's wealthy with NBA $$$ this time next year.

[Billy Dat]

While that may be, I am betting - barring injury - he's wealthy with NBA $$$ this time next year.

There's no doubt, the article is starting at the high floor of "is he worth a top 3 pick"? The narrative pendulum does swing wildly.

[House G]

My two favorite quotes:
“Bagley is practically unguardable in the NCAA . . .”
“There are stretches of games when they (his teammates) forget to get Bagley the ball.”

Why is this?

[kmspeaks]

My two favorite quotes:
“Bagley is practically unguardable in the NCAA . . .”
“There are stretches of games when they (his teammates) forget to get Bagley the ball.”

Why is this?

Because the same could be said of some of those teammates as well.

[Neals384]

Interesting article. To me, Bagley has a future similar to Jabari Parker. Parker was an obviously talented player with a lot of questions about his fit in the modern NBA. Could he defend NBA forwards? Could he shoot? After the first ACL team, Parker developed a consistent 3-point shot in his 3rd NBA season, which made his production and value shoot through the roof. He was suddenly a prototypical NBA stretch 4 that could also run the floor and jam it down low. Bagley has not shot well from the free throw line, which is a little troubling. But he hasn't been terrible, either. There's hope that his shot will develop enough to allow him to be super-sized Jabari-type player.

A couple of great landing spots for Bagley, with teams that have a solid defensive anchor in the post that can also hit from outside:

Celtics (Al Horford)
Pacers (Myles Turner)
76ers (Joel Embiid)
Bulls (Lauri Markannen - he has shown flashes of defensive upside while proving to be a 7-footer that can drain 3s)
Lakers (Brook Lopez)
Grizzlies (as mentioned in the article)

All I want for Christmas is for the 76ers to promise they will never draft another Dukie.

[DavidBenAkiva]

All I want for Christmas is for the 76ers to promise they will never draft another Dukie.

Just get them in free agency, like JJ! They appear to love him there. A good friend of mine is a big 76ers fan. It's been fun to hear him talk about how fun it is to watch JJ run around the court and watch his shooting form.

[Troublemaker]

My two favorite quotes:
“Bagley is practically unguardable in the NCAA . . .”
“There are stretches of games when they (his teammates) forget to get Bagley the ball.”

Why is this?

I mean, he's easily our highest usage player at 26% usage. And the makeup of the team around him doesn't support him being a 30+% usage player like Trae Young is for Oklahoma. Part of the reason he came to Duke I'm sure is to be surrounded by talented teammates that can help him with the scoring burden. Finally, unfortunately, this is the rare Duke team that can't surround him with 4 shooters, which would make it easier to get him the ball in the post.

[dukelifer]

Totally agree. He needs to spend all 4 years in college working on his outside game. We'll just have to find a way to work him into the lineup in the coming years.

Well I suspect that he will get drafted high but to be a great NBA player, he will need to develop his jumper. The article is correct- the NBA relies on shooters more than ever. I suspect most teams will take the chance that he will get better in time. It is all about the hard work that he will need to put into his game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well I suspect that he will get drafted high but to be a great NBA player, he will need to develop his jumper. The article is correct- the NBA relies on shooters more than ever. I suspect most teams will take the chance that he will get better in time. It is all about the hard work that he will need to put into his game.

That's why Grayson will be a first round pick. It's why Duval will likely fall out of the lottery. And it's why Javin and Bolden will likely be in college for a while.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I keep seeing this and wondering who Ringer Bradley is...

[dukelifer]

That's why Grayson will be a first round pick. It's why Duval will likely fall out of the lottery. And it's why Javin and Bolden will likely be in college for a while.
The criticism of Bagley is perhaps even more relevant to Duval. An athletic point guard without a great jumper is an issue in today's NBA. His mechanics don't look broken but he needs to put in a lot of hours to get a consistent shot from deep. Right now I don't see him as a consistent starter in the league.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The criticism of Bagley is perhaps even more relevant to Duval. An athletic point guard without a great jumper is an issue in today's NBA. His mechanics don't look broken but he needs to put in a lot of hours to get a consistent shot from deep. Right now I don't see him as a consistent starter in the league.

This is both true and not true. There are a number of point guards that are starting, some are even all-stars, with less than stellar shooting capabilities.

Dennis Shroeder (31.3% 3P%)
John Wall (31.1% 3P%)
Russell Westbrook (30.9% 3P%)
Ricky Rubio (29.7% 3P%)
Ben Simmons (0.0% 3P% - or infinity as he hasn't attempted one)

Both De'Aaron Fox and Lonzo Ball are below 30% of their 3-point shooting as well.

It's obvious that Duval is going to have to improve as a shooter to excel in college and at the next level. But I don't think he will have to become a great or even good shooter to be successful in the NBA.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This is both true and not true. There are a number of point guards that are starting, some are even all-stars, with less than stellar shooting capabilities.

Dennis Shroeder (31.3% 3P%)
John Wall (31.1% 3P%)
Russell Westbrook (30.9% 3P%)
Ricky Rubio (29.7% 3P%)
Ben Simmons (0.0% 3P% - or infinity as he hasn't attempted one)

Both De'Aaron Fox and Lonzo Ball are below 30% of their 3-point shooting as well.

It's obvious that Duval is going to have to improve as a shooter to excel in college and at the next level. But I don't think he will have to become a great or even good shooter to be successful in the NBA.

Career college 3pt shooting percentages:

John Wall (32.5% 3P%)
Russell Westbrook (35.4% 3P%)
Ben Simmons (N/A - he only shot 1 for 3)
De'Aaron Fox (24.6% 3P%)
Lonzo Ball (41.2% 3P%)

Trevon Duval (15.2% 3P%)


Of those comps, the only one who comes close is De'Aaron Fox. And Fox's remainder of his offensive game is similar to Duval. However, Fox was also one of the best defenders in college ball and Duval looks lethargic on that end (despite incredible athleticism and size).

[dukelifer]

This is both true and not true. There are a number of point guards that are starting, some are even all-stars, with less than stellar shooting capabilities.

Dennis Shroeder (31.3% 3P%)
John Wall (31.1% 3P%)
Russell Westbrook (30.9% 3P%)
Ricky Rubio (29.7% 3P%)
Ben Simmons (0.0% 3P% - or infinity as he hasn't attempted one)

Both De'Aaron Fox and Lonzo Ball are below 30% of their 3-point shooting as well.

It's obvious that Duval is going to have to improve as a shooter to excel in college and at the next level. But I don't think he will have to become a great or even good shooter to be successful in the NBA.
If he gets to 30% he will be fine. He is hovering in the mid teens from deep.

[English]

If he gets to 30% he will be fine. He is hovering in the mid teens from deep.

As has been mentioned here and everywhere else, FT% in college is a better predictor of NBA 3-pt shooting than college 3-pt shooting. Duval's current 64.3% FT shooting isn't super promising right now.

While we're here in a thread about Marvin Bagley III, his 61.1% FT shooting could also use a shot of life, although it's appeared to be on an upward trajectory*.

To me, they both seem like their shooting forms would allow them to become more consistent shooters, although it always appears to me that Duval rushes his shot. It definitely doesn't come naturally to him. They could both use hundreds of reps in the gym, for sure, and I'd imagine that and a dedicated shooting coach will help them immensely when they don't have to worry about pesky things like classes and exams next year in the League. I would expect that NBA scouts and front office execs will see that potential in Marvin, at least, and I hope they do the same for Trevon. Plenty of guys improved as shooters once they landed in the NBA and basically lived in the facility.


* I don't have time to check whether this is empirically supported, but my recollection suggests that he started out very badly at the stripe and has gotten (slightly) more reliable as the season has progressed.

[Kedsy]

* I don't have time to check whether this is empirically supported, but my recollection suggests that he started out very badly at the stripe and has gotten (slightly) more reliable as the season has progressed.

You are mostly correct. He was 18 for his first 36 free throws (50%, including 2 for 9 in his first two games), and 26 for his next 36 (72%). It's unclear which (if either) of those samples represent his "true" free-throw self. His shooting form isn't terrible, but also isn't great. My guess is his "true" self is somewhere in the 60s, hopefully on the high end, rather than at his current season average of 61%.

[flyingdutchdevil]

As has been mentioned here and everywhere else, FT% in college is a better predictor of NBA 3-pt shooting than college 3-pt shooting. Duval's current 64.3% FT shooting isn't super promising right now.

While we're here in a thread about Marvin Bagley III, his 61.1% FT shooting could also use a shot of life, although it's appeared to be on an upward trajectory*.

To me, they both seem like their shooting forms would allow them to become more consistent shooters, although it always appears to me that Duval rushes his shot. It definitely doesn't come naturally to him. They could both use hundreds of reps in the gym, for sure, and I'd imagine that and a dedicated shooting coach will help them immensely when they don't have to worry about pesky things like classes and exams next year in the League. I would expect that NBA scouts and front office execs will see that potential in Marvin, at least, and I hope they do the same for Trevon. Plenty of guys improved as shooters once they landed in the NBA and basically lived in the facility.


* I don't have time to check whether this is empirically supported, but my recollection suggests that he started out very badly at the stripe and has gotten (slightly) more reliable as the season has progressed.

Tatum FT in college / rookie 3pt% in NBA: 85% / 51.5%
Winslow FT in college / rookie 3pt% in NBA: 64% / 27.6%

The fact that Grayson and Gary are shooting above 88% right now (with Gary at 93%) should be an indicator of how good they really are as shooters.

That said, I probably shoot 60% from the line and <10% from 3...

[plimnko]

i think developing his right hand game would go a long way too.

[House G]

I mean, he's easily our highest usage player at 26% usage. And the makeup of the team around him doesn't support him being a 30+% usage player like Trae Young is for Oklahoma. Part of the reason he came to Duke I'm sure is to be surrounded by talented teammates that can help him with the scoring burden. Finally, unfortunately, this is the rare Duke team that can't surround him with 4 shooters, which would make it easier to get him the ball in the post.

I agree with your statement about his usage rate. Also, he appears to want to play “outside in” which may serve him well in the NBA. In the BC game, the vast majority of his touches in the second half started with him outside the 3-point line. And perhaps half his shots were 3-pointers. I guess I just don’t understand why he and Carter aren’t both playing in the low block the majority of the time. Against BC, he was being guarded by a guy that wasn’t particularly quick and who played behind him. I think it would have been easy to feed him—he just rarely set up down low. I would play “inside out” and make these teams guard the lane, which would open up scoring opportunities for the other guys. If I were an opposing coach, I would much rather see Bagley on the perimeter than down low.