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pfrduke
12-18-2017, 12:35 PM
Another rather slow week (+1 day, because I'm not writing next week's on Christmas Day), low on marquee games. But the ACC does have a chance to add to its preseason tourney titles when Miami laces them up in Honolulu (projected final matchup with USC should be a good one).

Monday
[25]Florida State(-26) hosts [309]Charleston Southern (7:00, ESPNU)
[65]Wake Forest (-5) at [175]Coastal Carolina (7:00)

Tuesday
[3]Virginia (-36) hosts [331]Savannah State (7:00, ACCNE)
[21]Notre Dame (-23) hosts [293]Dartmouth (7:00, ESPNU)
[33]Clemson (-7) hosts [56]South Carolina (7:00, ESPN2)
[52]Syracuse (-10) hosts [126]Buffalo (7:00, ACCNE)
[81]NC State (-14) hosts [236]Robert Morris (7:00, ACCNE)
[29]Virginia Tech (-29) hosts [340]Presbyterian (7:00, ACCNE)
[154]Pittsburgh (-19) hosts [351]Delaware State (7:00, ACCNE)
[91]Georgia Tech (+4) at [76]Georgia (9:00, ESPN2)

Wednesday
[5]Duke (-19) hosts [151]Evansville (7:00, ESPN2)
[8]North Carolina (-22) hosts [197]Wofford (9:00, ESPN2)
[28]Louisville (-14) hosts [123]Albany (9:00, ESPNU)

Thursday
[25]Florida State (-21) hosts [252]Southern Miss (7:00, ACCNE)
[21]Notre Dame (-20) hosts [244]Southeastern Louisiana (7:00, ACCNE)

Friday
[33]Clemson (-11) hosts [98]Louisiana Lafayette (3:00, ACCNE)
[3]Virginia (-28) hosts [304]Hampton (7:00, ACCNE)
[52]Syracuse (-5) hosts [67]St. Bonaventure (7:00, ACCNE)
[81]NC State (-21) hosts [330]Jacksonville (7:00, ACCNE)
[154]Pittsburgh (-1) hosts [99]Towson (7:00, ACCNE)
[91]Georgia Tech (-9) hosts [184]Wright State (9:00, ACCNE)
[14]Miami (-15) at [212]Hawaii (1:00 AM SAT, ESPNU)

Saturday
[65]Wake Forest (+2) hosts [24]Tennessee (12:30, ESPN2)
[28]Louisville (-15) vs. [132]Grand Canyon (1:00, ACCNE)
[82]Boston College (-13) hosts [224]Richmond (1:00, ACCNE)
[8]North Carolina (-8) vs. [48]Ohio State in New Orleans (1:30, CBS)
[14]Miami vs. [80]Davidson/[93]New Mexico State in Honolulu (10:00/12:30 AM SUN, ESPN2/ESPNU)

Sunday is dark

Christmas Day
[14]Miami vs. [32]USC/[68]Middle Tennessee/[147]Princeton/[196]Akron in Honolulu (TBD)

ACC Non-Conference Record: 124-31*
ACC v. Power 6: 27-18
America East: 3-0
American Athletic: 5-2
Atlantic 10: 12-1
Atlantic Sun: 2-0
Big East: 2-2
Big 12: 1-6
Big Sky: 1-1
Big South: 6-1
Big Ten: 13-6
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 3-0
CUSA: 1-0
Horizon: 2-0
Ivy: 3-0
MAAC: 3-0
MAC: 3-1
MEAC: 7-0
MVC: 1-2
MWC: 1-0
NEC: 11-0
OVC: 2-0
Pac 12: 3-1
Patriot: 7-1
SEC: 8-3
Southern: 9-2
Southland: 2-0
Summit: 2-0
Sun Belt: 1-1
SWAC: 3-1
WAC: 4-0
WCC: 1-0
Non-D1: 1-0

*for comparison purposes, the Big 12 has 16 losses, the Big East has 22, the SEC has 36, the Pac-12 has 39, and the Big Ten has 39 (non-conference).

JasonEvans
12-18-2017, 12:50 PM
Tuesday
[3]Virginia (-36) hosts [331]Savannah State (7:00, ACCNE)

Jason, why are you highlighting such a lopsided matchup? The #3 team in D1 versus a team in the bottom 20?

Well, if you look at KenPom's tempo ratings -- the speed at which teams play -- Sav St rates #1 and Virginia rates #351 (dead last). Put another way, the fastest team in hoops is playing the slowest. I'm dying to see who wins out (just in terms of speed of game play, not in terms of winning, as I suspect Virginia will hammer them).

I wonder what the O/U will be on this game? Virginia usually has O/U numbers in the 120s or 130s... could Sav St.'s pace of play actually get this O/U up to 140?!??!

Wahoo2000
12-18-2017, 01:10 PM
Jason, why are you highlighting such a lopsided matchup? The #3 team in D1 versus a team in the bottom 20?

Well, if you look at KenPom's tempo ratings -- the speed at which teams play -- Sav St rates #1 and Virginia rates #351 (dead last). Put another way, the fastest team in hoops is playing the slowest. I'm dying to see who wins out (just in terms of speed of game play, not in terms of winning, as I suspect Virginia will hammer them).

I wonder what the O/U will be on this game? Virginia usually has O/U numbers in the 120s or 130s... could Sav St.'s pace of play actually get this O/U up to 140?!??!

They're right at 85 possessions per game, we're right at 62. I guess we can set the line at 74. Could be really hard to predict, as if we're waaaaay out in front, Bennett will throw the walkons in with as much as 4-5 min left. I think I'd wager on the high side of the line, as those backups are much more likely to "get sped up" than our core rotation players. I'd guess a 75-76 possession game. I think we'll probably be right around 1.2-1.25ppp, and hold them around .8-.85ppp. Projected final of about 92-62 - a total of 154 (Yes, Virginia, you can play a game with a 150+ total, lol)!!!

Another thing to note - this has the potential to be our highest scoring output under Bennett (currently, I think, 93 vs Austin Peay earlier this season). The Sav St defense is god-awful, and if we shoot reasonably well, we have a more than reasonable chance at getting into the 90s, and maaaaaaybe even hit triple digits. I think the bulk of the collective medias' heads would explode if they saw Virginia score 100 points in a game. Reminds me of that exchange from the original Ghostbusters: "Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! 40 years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!"

ChillinDuke
12-18-2017, 01:29 PM
Jason, why are you highlighting such a lopsided matchup? The #3 team in D1 versus a team in the bottom 20?

Well, if you look at KenPom's tempo ratings -- the speed at which teams play -- Sav St rates #1 and Virginia rates #351 (dead last). Put another way, the fastest team in hoops is playing the slowest. I'm dying to see who wins out (just in terms of speed of game play, not in terms of winning, as I suspect Virginia will hammer them).

I wonder what the O/U will be on this game? Virginia usually has O/U numbers in the 120s or 130s... could Sav St.'s pace of play actually get this O/U up to 140?!??!

I'm gathering a lot of historical data this season. As far as I can find, this game will be by far the biggest disparity in tempo of the entire season.

I made a somewhat arbitrary cutoff at a KP tempo disparity of 8.00 or greater between the two teams, which yields 23 instances thus far this season. The average combined score on those games has been 148.17. But UVA has been in 2 of those instances (shocking, I know), and they've come out at 129 and 126. So it appears that UVA has been able to keep the pace reasonably slow when they play fast teams (West Virginia and Monmouth, respectively).

Meanwhile, Vegas has been pretty good at setting these O/U's (shocking, I know) as the Over-Under has hit 11-12, respectively.

Not really enough data to make an informed prediction. But I'd probably side with UVA controlling pace on the slower side.

Sorry, is this the degenerate thread?

- Chillin

Spanarkel
12-18-2017, 01:40 PM
Evansville's leading two scorers, Ryan Taylor(~21ppg) and Dru Smith(~12ppg/5apg), will miss this week's game in CIS due to foot injuries.

flyingdutchdevil
12-18-2017, 01:42 PM
Evansville's leading two scorers, Ryan Taylor(~21ppg) and Dru Smith(~12ppg/5apg), will miss this week's game in CIS due to foot injuries.

I thought you're supposed to get foot injuries at CIS, not prior to playing at CIS.

Uh no...the curse is spreading!

Wahoo2000
12-18-2017, 01:47 PM
I'm gathering a lot of historical data this season. As far as I can find, this game will be by far the biggest disparity in tempo of the entire season.

I made a somewhat arbitrary cutoff at a KP tempo disparity of 8.00 or greater between the two teams, which yields 23 instances thus far this season. The average combined score on those games has been 148.17. But UVA has been in 2 of those instances (shocking, I know), and they've come out at 129 and 126. So it appears that UVA has been able to keep the pace reasonably slow when they play fast teams (West Virginia and Monmouth, respectively).

Meanwhile, Vegas has been pretty good at setting these O/U's (shocking, I know) as the Over-Under has hit 11-12, respectively.

Not really enough data to make an informed prediction. But I'd probably side with UVA controlling pace on the slower side.

Sorry, is this the degenerate thread?

- Chillin

Your post got me thinking and so after looking at some data, I'm leaning towards recanting on my previous prediction. UVA under Bennet has only exceeded 70 possessions in regulation 5 times, and hasn't done so once since the 12-13 season. Looking at that makes me think my previous prediction of around 75 possessions is absurd (though we've also never played a team that is anywhere near Sav St's pace either). Still, I think we're more likely to impose our will a little bit. At least enough that even with some "pace regression" in garbage time, it'll still come out below 70. Despite Kenpom usually being right there in lockstep with the vegas lines (he has us winning 95-59), I think it'll be a little more low-scoring than that. Maybe more like an 82-55 type of finish. It'll be interesting to see the Vegas total and spread when released.

MChambers
12-19-2017, 08:02 PM
Robert Morris leading State at the half, 39-36.

MChambers
12-19-2017, 08:04 PM
Your post got me thinking and so after looking at some data, I'm leaning towards recanting on my previous prediction. UVA under Bennet has only exceeded 70 possessions in regulation 5 times, and hasn't done so once since the 12-13 season. Looking at that makes me think my previous prediction of around 75 possessions is absurd (though we've also never played a team that is anywhere near Sav St's pace either). Still, I think we're more likely to impose our will a little bit. At least enough that even with some "pace regression" in garbage time, it'll still come out below 70. Despite Kenpom usually being right there in lockstep with the vegas lines (he has us winning 95-59), I think it'll be a little more low-scoring than that. Maybe more like an 82-55 type of finish. It'll be interesting to see the Vegas total and spread when released.

If you rank #351 in tempo, you’ll impose your pace on anyone. Hard to watch though.

PackMan97
12-19-2017, 10:36 PM
Robert Morris leading State at the half, 39-36.

State won by 12. Our defense is going to struggle without Markell in the lineup. We did have three guys with double doubles.

Yurtseven 10 reb, 12 pts
Down 10 reb, 17 pts
Freeman 12 reb, 11 pts

Only Abu missed it from the front court, he ONLY had 7 reb, 15 pts.

Good thing, because States starting guards, Al Freeman and Beverly were a combined 2-18 from the floor. State shot 2-14 from beyond the arc. Ugh!

ChillinDuke
12-20-2017, 01:43 PM
I'm gathering a lot of historical data this season. As far as I can find, this game will be by far the biggest disparity in tempo of the entire season.

I made a somewhat arbitrary cutoff at a KP tempo disparity of 8.00 or greater between the two teams, which yields 23 instances thus far this season. The average combined score on those games has been 148.17. But UVA has been in 2 of those instances (shocking, I know), and they've come out at 129 and 126. So it appears that UVA has been able to keep the pace reasonably slow when they play fast teams (West Virginia and Monmouth, respectively).

Meanwhile, Vegas has been pretty good at setting these O/U's (shocking, I know) as the Over-Under has hit 11-12, respectively.

Not really enough data to make an informed prediction. But I'd probably side with UVA controlling pace on the slower side.

Sorry, is this the degenerate thread?

- Chillin


Your post got me thinking and so after looking at some data, I'm leaning towards recanting on my previous prediction. UVA under Bennet has only exceeded 70 possessions in regulation 5 times, and hasn't done so once since the 12-13 season. Looking at that makes me think my previous prediction of around 75 possessions is absurd (though we've also never played a team that is anywhere near Sav St's pace either). Still, I think we're more likely to impose our will a little bit. At least enough that even with some "pace regression" in garbage time, it'll still come out below 70. Despite Kenpom usually being right there in lockstep with the vegas lines (he has us winning 95-59), I think it'll be a little more low-scoring than that. Maybe more like an 82-55 type of finish. It'll be interesting to see the Vegas total and spread when released.

Well, there you have it. The slowest team in America (the Cavs) certainly imposed their will against the fastest team in America. The under hit on KenPom (o/u 154), myself above (o/u 148.17), Wahoo2000 (o/u 137), and even UVA's own games against WVU and Monmouth (o/u 129 and 126, respectively) with a 125, winning 78-47.

Unfortunately, Vegas didn't even list an o/u on this game (at least not one I could find). Probably for understandable reasons: crazy disparity, blowout scenario, minimal interest game, etc. So we'll never know if they hit the actual under.

Wahoo - pace was 68. So you were right on that one coming out below 70, although (perhaps unsurprisingly) that was the fastest game UVA has played all season by 3.

- Chillin

Olympic Fan
12-23-2017, 01:01 AM
Two more horrific losses for the ACC Friday night.

Syracuse loses at home to St. Bonaventure (despite some major help down the stretch by the refs) and Georgia Tech losses to Wright State at home.

The Bonnies aren't bad but it was the first time they've ever won at Syracuse. Wright State is 180 in KenPom -- the third team above 174 in KenPom that the 5-6 Jackets have lost to.

Throw in UINC's home loss to Wofford and it's been a terrible week for the ACC.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-23-2017, 07:27 AM
Two more horrific losses for the ACC Friday night.

Syracuse loses at home to St. Bonaventure (despite some major help down the stretch by the refs) and Georgia Tech losses to Wright State at home.

The Bonnies aren't bad but it was the first time they've ever won at Syracuse. Wright State is 180 in KenPom -- the third team above 174 in KenPom that the 5-6 Jackets have lost to.

Throw in UINC's home loss to Wofford and it's been a terrible week for the ACC.

I admittedly don't pay a ton of attention to Syracuse basketball except when it intersects with Duke basketball, but I could swear for each of the last four seasons I have heard announcers say that it is Jim Boeheim's last season coaching.

devildeac
12-23-2017, 07:59 AM
Two more horrific losses for the ACC Friday night.

Syracuse loses at home to St. Bonaventure (despite some major help down the stretch by the refs) and Georgia Tech losses to Wright State at home.

The Bonnies aren't bad but it was the first time they've ever won at Syracuse. Wright State is 180 in KenPom -- the third team above 174 in KenPom that the 5-6 Jackets have lost to.

Throw in UINC's home loss to Wofford and it's been a terrible week for the ACC.

Well, one of the losses was "u"nc so it wasn't all *that* terrible...

9F 'em.

OldPhiKap
12-23-2017, 08:07 AM
Two more horrific losses for the ACC Friday night.

Syracuse loses at home to St. Bonaventure (despite some major help down the stretch by the refs) and Georgia Tech losses to Wright State at home.

The Bonnies aren't bad but it was the first time they've ever won at Syracuse. Wright State is 180 in KenPom -- the third team above 174 in KenPom that the 5-6 Jackets have lost to.

Throw in UINC's home loss to Wofford and it's been a terrible week for the ACC.

I know K and Jimmy the Frown are friends, but I have disliked Syracuse since the old Big East days.

The Vastards could lose every game they ever play, and I would be happy.

I would really like Tech to be relevant again in basketball, but this won’t be the decade.

sagegrouse
12-23-2017, 08:28 AM
Throw in [UNC's] home loss to Wofford and it's been a terrible week for the ACC.

Well, most ACC fans are groveling in the "terribleness" and loving it.

Olympic Fan
12-23-2017, 12:39 PM
I admittedly don't pay a ton of attention to Syracuse basketball except when it intersects with Duke basketball, but I could swear for each of the last four seasons I have heard announcers say that it is Jim Boeheim's last season coaching.

Actually, this was supposed to be Boeheim's last year. That was set after the NCAA probation.

But a new administration took over and essentially negotiated an open-ended extension that could keep Boeheim on the bench for a LONG time. He's definitely planning to be there next season when his son arrives as a player (not a top prospect, but a well-regarded shooter).

But it will be interesting to watch his program. It's somewhat like the last years of Bobby Bowden's tenure at FSU. The program has slumped badly in recent years. Except for a remarkable and unexpected Final Four run in 2016, Syracuse has been fairly mediocre since joining the ACC -- not bad, but after a 14-4 start in their first ACC year, the 'Cuse is one game over .500 in the ACC in the last three (with an average of exactly 20.0 wins overall). That's not the level 'Cuse fans were used to un the old Big East.

This year's team's looks fairly mediocre to me, despite a solid 9-2 record. It's worth noting that seven of those wins were at home. I think this Syracuse team will be tough in the Dome (despite the loss t the Bonnies), but will be very vulnerable on the road.

Rich
12-23-2017, 12:44 PM
This year's team's looks fairly mediocre to me, despite a solid 9-2 record. It's worth noting that seven of those wins were at home. I think this Syracuse team will be tough in the Dome (despite the loss to the Bonnies), but will be very vulnerable on the road.

The loss to the Bonnies was while the students are on break and, based on the article I read, there were a lot of St. Bon fans at the game. I went to the Dome for last year's Duke game and it was an extremely difficult environment as a visitor. It's a game the Orange stole, and we should've won, but it was a pretty loud and raucous atmosphere. So, I agree with you.

dukelifer
12-23-2017, 02:24 PM
Heels have Cameron Johnson back now and he looks to be improving very fast.

Olympic Fan
12-23-2017, 07:32 PM
Wake put up a good fight for 36 minutes against Tennessee.

But as is becoming a habit for Danny Manning teams, the Deacons collapsed down the stretch. Tennessee scored the last 13 points to turn a 66-60 battle into a 79-60 rout.

BTW: BC had to go overtime to beat a bad Richmond team.

Acymetric
12-24-2017, 12:06 AM
Aaaaand #6 Miami goes down to powerhouse New Mexico St (who admittedly is 11-2).