College football head to head predictor

[kshepinthehouse]

Good afternoon. I am curious as to what many of you feel to be the best predictor of college football head to head matchups (no spread). I think KenPom is the best for college basketball but I’m not quite sure about college football. Is it Vegas line, Massey ratings, sagarin, ESPN power index, etc.?

[-jk]

Good afternoon. I am curious as to what many of you feel to be the best predictor of college football head to head matchups (no spread). I think KenPom is the best for college basketball but I’m not quite sure about college football. Is it Vegas line, Massey ratings, sagarin, ESPN power index, etc.?

The Vegas line is always really, really good. Go visit the degenerates thread for a more heartfelt discussion...

Outside that, I like the Massey Composite for both football (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm) and hoops (https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm).

-jk

[gofurman]

The Vegas line is always really, really good. Go visit the degenerates thread for a more heartfelt discussion...

Outside that, I like the Massey Composite for both football (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm) and hoops (https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm).

-jk

I have to disagree on Vegas. Just today they favored Oregon and WKU both by 7. Both lost by 10'or more. Not even close. The reason ? Vegas couldn't care less how close their line is. Not one bit. All a Vegas line is a set t get half the money in Vegas on one side and half on the other. That's all - it doesn't reflect what they think will happen. It's a meta language. It reflects where the Vegas guys think the public thinks of the game. Thus half the money on one side and half on the other. Watch a documentary on it. It's interesting stuff. That's why they are scared to be the first casino w a line. If they are off - in eyes of public - they get hammered on one side and have risk. As long as half money goes on one side and half on other then the losers $50 pays the winner $50 and the house keeps $5 from the loser. House always wins as long as even money on both sides. There are times house loses. Say they set Duke basketball -15 over an early OOC. Everyone likes Duke so 80% of money goes on Duke. Vegas moves line to 20 to try and compensate. Too late. Duke wins by 22. House loses money as not enough losers to pay out winners. House has to be the one to pay out. If a line never moves or moves little Vegas likes it. They got half money on each of the sides. If it moves a lot you know Vegas may be a little concerned.