Poll: What will Duke's ACC record be?

[CDu]

Per request, here is a poll. How good do you think our ACC regular season will end up being?

[sagegrouse]

I say 14-4 in the ACC and 36-4 for the season!

[gofurman]

Question - specifically , Who do you see us losing to?

I see this FSU game at home as a key game and the next one in Raleigh too.. Right now I would be happy to split those two. Tough at Miami and at UNC, heck Clemson will be tough at Clemson. Have to learn to play better D

[CDu]

I say 14-4 in the ACC and 36-4 for the season!

I haven't posted yet, but that's about where I feel as well!

[CDu]

Question - specifically , Who do you see us losing to?

I see this FSU game at home as a key game and the next one in Raleigh too.. Right now I would be happy to split those two. Tough at Miami and at UNC, heck Clemson will be tough at Clemson. Have to learn to play better D

I think this is a tough question. I mean, did anyone really see us losing to BC? Seemingly every year we win some games folks think we shouldn't win, and lose some games everyone thinks we should win.

[gofurman]

I think this is a tough question. I mean, did anyone really see us losing to BC? Seemingly every year we win some games folks think we shouldn't win, and lose some games everyone thinks we should win.

Right, road games are going to be vtough on such a young team. I think we may see a big difference in home / road w this really young team

[Troublemaker]

I went with 14-4. Before BC, I would've gone with 15-3 so I essentially ONLY deducted the cost of the BC loss and didn't use the BC loss to color my prognosticating of the rest of the schedule. Hopefully that turns out to be the right approach.

This exercise comes down to this. Do you have faith in the coaching staff and players to:
(1) Improve the defense as the season progresses? For example, my 14-4 is not possible without this.
(2) Find effective counters to ACC coaches crowding the paint to exploit Duke's lack of shooting?

#2 should get more mention than it does. Obviously, improving the defense is important, but we want to also maintain our offensive level while that happens if possible.

The nightmare scenario is that the offensive slide occurs at a faster pace than any defensive improvement (or if the defense doesn't improve).

[Kedsy]

I went with 14-4. Before BC, I would've gone with 15-3 so I essentially ONLY deducted the cost of the BC loss and didn't use the BC loss to color my prognosticating of the rest of the schedule. Hopefully that turns out to be the right approach.

This exercise comes down to this. Do you have faith in the coaching staff and players to:
(1) Improve the defense as the season progresses? For example, my 14-4 is not possible without this.
(2) Find effective counters to ACC coaches crowding the paint to exploit Duke's lack of shooting?

#2 should get more mention than it does. Obviously, improving the defense is important, but we want to also maintain our offensive level while that happens if possible.

The nightmare scenario is that the offensive slide occurs at a faster pace than any defensive improvement (or if the defense doesn't improve).

I think people may be overreacting to the BC loss. For starters, the fact that BC shot 58% from three cannot be entirely attributed to bad defense. If they'd shot their average plus a normal premium for bad D, let's say something like 42%, they make four fewer threes and we win the game with a dRtg of a tad over 1 ppp, which admittedly is still bad but we probably wouldn't be wringing our hands about it. On the offensive side of the court, Grayson shot only 1 for 9 from three. That's going to happen occasionally, but not often. If he'd managed to hit a couple more -- still below his average -- it would have been a different ballgame, with our oRtg north of 1.20, which is plenty good on offense.

Beyond that, we should rarely if ever be in a situation where Marvin and Trevon combine for 7 three-point attempts. In part that was a reaction to BC's crowd-the-paint strategy, but fixing it seems like a minor tweak to me, rather than a major "counter."

I'd also note that both our offensive rebounding (34.2%) and our defensive rebounding (67.7%) were below average for us, especially offensive rebounding. It's possible we didn't work hard enough at rebounding against a small team like BC. That's probably a mindset thing, and hopefully the loss at BC will be enough to teach our young team that you can't take possessions off.

To me, the main takeaway from the BC game is if an opponent shoots really well from three and we shoot poorly, then we're in danger of getting hit with a loss. Will that happen again? Probably. Yes, we can fix this problem by tightening our D and keeping our poise on O, but it's also true that almost all teams are vulnerable in the above situation.

NOTE: I also went with 14-4, using pretty much the same reasoning you used in your first paragraph.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I went with 14-4. Before BC, I would've gone with 15-3 so I essentially ONLY deducted the cost of the BC loss and didn't use the BC loss to color my prognosticating of the rest of the schedule. Hopefully that turns out to be the right approach.

This exercise comes down to this. Do you have faith in the coaching staff and players to:
(1) Improve the defense as the season progresses? For example, my 14-4 is not possible without this.
(2) Find effective counters to ACC coaches crowding the paint to exploit Duke's lack of shooting?

#2 should get more mention than it does. Obviously, improving the defense is important, but we want to also maintain our offensive level while that happens if possible.

The nightmare scenario is that the offensive slide occurs at a faster pace than any defensive improvement (or if the defense doesn't improve).

Even though I think our defense is a dumpster-fire, I too went with 14-4. For essentially the same rationale that you had (and Kedsy).

I think the coaching staff is working with players to get their defensive energy up and coming up with schemes that will work. I think we go 8-0 at home. I think we lose half of our away games (so go 4-3 for the remaining away games).

[jv001]

I guess I'm the eternal optimist and I went with 15-3. I'm putting trust in Coach K that this season, he will get the defense figured out. If we don't it will be the worst under performing Duke team in a long time. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

I guess I'm the eternal optimist and I went with 15-3. I'm putting trust in Coach K that this season, he will get the defense figured out. If we don't it will be the worst under performing Duke team in a long time. GoDuke!

Tough to beat last year on that one: pre-season #1, 11-7 record in the ACC.

We won't be as underperforming at last year. That's not going to happen.

[jv001]

Tough to beat last year on that one: pre-season #1, 11-7 record in the ACC.

We won't be as underperforming at last year. That's not going to happen.

But last season was injury plagued but I'm with you, I don't think we will under perform. GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think people may be overreacting to the BC loss...

One day - not today - that overreaction tendency will. Be what finally drives me from this board. A Psych 101 class could study us for a primer in manic depression. Each win leads to talk of an undefeated season. A loss means we probably won't make the tournament.

I know it is a global trend in our Twitter-based universe, but I lack the intestinal fortitude to re-evaluate all my perspectives on a moment to moment basis.

All that said... Three losses feels about right.

[Kedsy]

Each win leads to talk of an undefeated season.

If our next win leads to talk of an undefeated season, then I'll probably leave the board too. :p

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If our next win leads to talk of an undefeated season, then I'll probably leave the board too. :p

Touche

[BullBlue]

Somebody has to jump in at 16-2, so I'll do it. We are only going to lose one more away game at either Miami, unc, or VaTech. Going to be unrealistically optimistic.

[kAzE]

I say 14-4 in the ACC and 36-4 for the season!

I'd just like to point out that the ACC Championship and National Championship is baked into this prediction.

But I'll buy it.

[UrinalCake]

I think between @State @Miami @UNC we lose two, and between our home games against UVA, ND, UNC, Louisville we lose two. UVA’s defense is tailor-made to stop us, and ND will light us up from three. So 13-5. Normally I’d account for another random loss out of nowhere, but I’m hoping we’ve already gotten that one out of the way.

[wobatus]

Not an opening game conference loss, but they lost games OOC to VCU, Wisconsin, Green Bay, and got blown out by over 30 by Tennessee. Green Bay and Tennessee were true road games and were pretty good that year but I didn't think the Cavs were going to be all that tough. They started 3-1 in the ACC, losing their 4th conference game to Duke. They then won 13 in a row and went 16-2, and won the ACC Tournament. The ACC wasn't quite as strong that year. Virginia got UNC early when they were in the midst of losing 4-5, then UNC won 12 in a row. They got Syracuse late when they were falling from number 1 to losing 4 of 5 and 6 of their last 9. But that surprised me after the Tennessee loss, which must have gotten their minds right.

[gofurman]

I think between @State @Miami @UNC we lose two, and between our home games against UVA, ND, UNC, Louisville we lose two. UVA’s defense is tailor-made to stop us, and ND will light us up from three. So 13-5. Normally I’d account for another random loss out of nowhere, but I’m hoping we’ve already gotten that one out of the way.

The two games coming scare me. I would LOVE to get out 1-1 or 2-0. v FSU who is undefeated I think and always plays Duke tough and then at State.. those two are v hard games imo

[UrinalCake]

The two games coming scare me. I would LOVE to get out 1-1 or 2-0. v FSU who is undefeated I think and always plays Duke tough and then at State.. those two are v hard games imo

Absolutely. An 0-3 start in conference is a very real possibility.

[gofurman]

Absolutely. An 0-3 start in conference is a very real possibility.

right, not having recency bias w BC... its actually anti-recency bias. FSU is always a tough out for Duke (physical team, big guards, not sure why exactly but they are always a v tough out for us).. and then State is always apt to get us in Raleigh.

[Kedsy]

right, not having recency bias w BC... its actually anti-recency bias. FSU is always a tough out for Duke (physical team, big guards, not sure why exactly but they are always a v tough out for us).. and then State is always apt to get us in Raleigh.

Recent Duke records at NCSU and home against FSU:

Duke @NC State:
Last 5 games: 2-3
Last 10 games: 5-5
Last 15 games: 10-5

Duke hosting FSU:
Last 5 games: 4-1
Last 10 games: 8-2
Last 15 games: 13-2

[sagegrouse]

Recent Duke records at NCSU and home against FSU:

Duke @NC State:
Last 5 games: 2-3
Last 10 games: 5-5
Last 15 games: 10-5

Duke hosting FSU:
Last 5 games: 4-1
Last 10 games: 8-2
Last 15 games: 13-2

So, the ACC schedules Duke @ NC State early in the season on the potential that a State win will lead to the total meltdown of DBR.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

39-1. As long as we win the last game in April, I’m good! LGD GTHc 9F!

[duke2x]

RPI Forecast, which uses Sagarin, has us favored in every game but @UNC. He only picks us to tie for first with UVA and UNC at 13-5.
Pomeroy has the same favorite analysis, but I can't give you predicted standings.

I'm not changing my prediction much from Friday. Miami has the easiest schedule followed by Duke, the difference ultimately being the location of the Duke-Miami game.
@Miami and @VT are the games I fear the most on the schedule.

Miami 15-3 (@FSU, @VT, @ND, @UNC are the challenges).
Duke 15-3 (@BC, @Miami, @VT).
UVA 13-5
TBD for the last double bye

UNC 10-8 (@Duke, @UVA, @ND, @FSU, @VT, @Syracuse, @Louisville. Duke, ND, and Miami are more than able to win @UNC).

[dukelifer]

We will certainly lose 1 game. After that- it is just a guess.

[indy1duke]

I will go with 16/2, which was my prediction before the BC fiasco. The defense will improve with the team getting practice time to build on the intricacies of M2M — switching, hedging and icing. They also better recapture that trapping zone they employed against MSU. Passive zones are not very effective.

I love their offensive potential against anyone. As the season goes by I expect these freshmen plus Grayson to develop into an outstanding team. (They’ve been pretty good so far. Even being ranked#4 is not too shabby.). I don’t expect any home losses. The home crowd won’t let Grayson go 1 for 9 and those great Duke runs will lead to many blowouts. I also think we won’t get so many questionable calls down the stretch of a close game. Last, I like our favorable schedule.

[Spanarkel]

I will go with 16/2, which was my prediction before the BC fiasco. The defense will improve with the team getting practice time to build on the intricacies of M2M — switching, hedging and icing. They also better recapture that trapping zone they employed against MSU. Passive zones are not very effective.

I love their offensive potential against anyone. As the season goes by I expect these freshmen plus Grayson to develop into an outstanding team. (They’ve been pretty good so far. Even being ranked#4 is not too shabby.). I don’t expect any home losses. The home crowd won’t let Grayson go 1 for 9 and those great Duke runs will lead to many blowouts. I also think we won’t get so many questionable calls down the stretch of a close game. Last, I like our favorable schedule.

Grayson went 1/9 from beyond the arc on 1/23/17(NCS).

[wobatus]

RPI Forecast, which uses Sagarin, has us favored in every game but @UNC. He only picks us to tie for first with UVA and UNC at 13-5.
Pomeroy has the same favorite analysis, but I can't give you predicted standings.

I'm not changing my prediction much from Friday. Miami has the easiest schedule followed by Duke, the difference ultimately being the location of the Duke-Miami game.
@Miami and @VT are the games I fear the most on the schedule.

Miami 15-3 (@FSU, @VT, @ND, @UNC are the challenges).
Duke 15-3 (@BC, @Miami, @VT).
UVA 13-5
TBD for the last double bye

UNC 10-8 (@Duke, @UVA, @ND, @FSU, @VT, @Syracuse, @Louisville. Duke, ND, and Miami are more than able to win @UNC).

T-Rank (Bart Torvik's site, which is like Kenpom), has UNC favored in all but 4 ACC games, but some are just by .1 point, like FSU game (same as with their OOC Tennessee; since that's a Barnes team, who is Roy kryptonite second only to K I expect an L). But T-Rank still has UNC going 12-6 in ACC. It's just a short ride from there to 10-8. They'll get a lot of folks best shot (if not reserved for Duke) as defending champs and for, uh, other reasons. The schedule goddess who has smiled last couple of years has changed things up.

[DevilFalcon]

15-3, but as long as we are 2-0, or 3-0 (again) vs. the CHeaters and we get a good NCAA path, I don't really care.

[rsvman]

I chose 13-5, but we could easily range anywhere from 11-7 to 15-3, in my opinion. A lot depends on how they gel, how they deal with losses and adversity, and the absence of injuries.

[duke2x]

Duke 15-3 (@BC, @Miami, @VT).

UNC 10-8 (@Duke, @UVA, @ND, @FSU, @VT, @Syracuse, @Louisville. Duke, ND, and Miami are more than able to win @UNC).

Let me add @Clemson to the possible loss lists for Duke and UNC. I'll stick with the 15-3 prediction for Duke and take ND off the home list for UNC. Littlejohn can be very tough if the Tigers don't fall apart by February.

[Wahoo2000]

One day - not today - that overreaction tendency will. Be what finally drives me from this board. A Psych 101 class could study us for a primer in manic depression. Each win leads to talk of an undefeated season. A loss means we probably won't make the tournament.

I know it is a global trend in our Twitter-based universe, but I lack the intestinal fortitude to re-evaluate all my perspectives on a moment to moment basis.

All that said... Three losses feels about right.

If it makes you feel any better, this is not a thing unique to Duke or Duke fans. In fact, this board is probably OVERALL less reactionary than most that I visit.

ex. We beat Davidson by 20 and after the game, there was a full blown meltdown because..... and I'm 100% serious here..... the BROTHER of one of our freshmen posted on facebook that "it's time for my bro to COME HOME". People took it as a sign that said player is considering a transfer. Actually took it as closer to a certainty that said player is about to transfer. Complete meltdown, and on a nice we had a really nice win. Makes me SMDH.

[UrinalCake]

I think between @State @Miami @UNC we lose two, and between our home games against UVA, ND, UNC, Louisville we lose two. UVA’s defense is tailor-made to stop us, and ND will light us up from three. So 13-5. Normally I’d account for another random loss out of nowhere, but I’m hoping we’ve already gotten that one out of the way.

Well I was pretty close, we only lost one of those tough home games but then added the road loss to VT. Congrats to me and my 22 friends who correctly predicted our final conference record of 13-5.

[MarkD83]

Thanks for pulling this back to the top. We all got the BC loss wrong but the others were close. So since most of us thought Duke would have 4 to 5 losses why do we all go crazy when they lose.

[slower]

Well I was pretty close, we only lost one of those tough home games but then added the road loss to VT. Congrats to me and my 22 friends who correctly predicted our final conference record of 13-5.
Yep, we got it right. Didn't think that would get us 2nd place, honestly.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If it makes you feel any better, this is not a thing unique to Duke or Duke fans. In fact, this board is probably OVERALL less reactionary than most that I visit..

Allow me a slightly different take. Going onto this forum last night and seeing the venting really helped me not feel the need to vent verbally. I never fired a single F bomb at the TV, which normally I would have done about 20 times in a half like the first half. I made a few posts, relatively gentle, but seeing the others venting was cathartic for me.

Everyone is different...I would bet that those posters who made the most negative comments just needed to blow off steam for a few seconds...some people are wired that way...one or two seconds of anger then boom, gone. That's how I am to a degree. I think some others are too.

[dukelifer]

Thanks for pulling this back to the top. We all got the BC loss wrong but the others were close. So since most of us thought Duke would have 4 to 5 losses why do we all go crazy when they lose.

And Duke was in every game they lost.

[CDu]

Thanks for pulling this back to the top. We all got the BC loss wrong but the others were close. So since most of us thought Duke would have 4 to 5 losses why do we all go crazy when they lose.

To be clear, this poll was created AFTER the BC loss.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks for pulling this back to the top. We all got the BC loss wrong but the others were close. So since most of us thought Duke would have 4 to 5 losses why do we all go crazy when they lose.

Instant analysis and hot takes have taught us that you are only as good as your last game. Or, your last half played.

Exhausting way to live one's life.

[richardjackson199]

NYBri is so money!!

I was very tempted to link the Swingers video clip, but due to the amount of profanity in there I will resist.