MBB: Boston College 89, Duke 84 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

[SCMatt33]

If the formula for beating us is making 15 3's while shooting 25% above your teams season average, I'll take it. GG BC

[Mrezt]

Figured it would happen sometime, just didn't want it to be BC lol...

[dukelion]

Honestly....this team needed a loss. Too many pats on the back during the last few weeks where they could've easily lost 2-3 games.

0-1 in ACC play.....things just got real for them.

[fuse]

No more undefeated talk.

I subscribe to the start a freshman equals a loss, so we have a few more coming.

No Bagley determined face today, either.

Turning point was the bad shot when we were up 4.

I suspected the FSU game would be tough, honestly thought we’d run away with this one.

On to the next game- go Duke!

[WHOneedsSOX]

Duke wasn't going to go undefeated. Good game BC.

Disappointing thing is I don't see any improvements from Duke. Doesn't matter if they're winning or losing as long as they're getting better. They aren't yet.

[duke4ever19]

If the formula for beating us is making 15 3's while shooting 25% above your teams season average, I'll take it. GG BC

Our defense (or lack thereof) had a little something to do with that. Sure, Bowman will come out in his next game and score 12 points, but a mixture of 'getting up for the Duke game' and wide-open 3-pointers is to blame.

[thewoosh31]

Honestly...this team needed a loss. Too many pats on the back during the last few weeks where they could've easily lost 2-3 games.

0-1 in ACC play....things just got real for them.

Agree with this. Humble pie will make them better and hungrier.

[jjredickrules]

We’ve been so good at feeding our big men this year. Idk why we abandoned that in the second half. Way too many 3’s taken by us this game.

Next play.

[TheOldBattleship]

Late game mistakes hurt us a lot here, but we lost this game because of our inability to defend a team with 4 shooters on the floor and a scheme to take advantage of our aggressiveness helping in the paint. We really have to clean up our rotations (especially not having all our bigs crash into the paint all the time; it's especially noticeable when we have DeLaurier out there at the 3...) and figure out how to communicate on that end, because there are quite a few teams with enough shooters to do this to us going forward. We had a bad offensive game with our inability to get the two bigs going down the stretch, sure, but we scored 84 points. We need to make better choices (looking at you, Grayson and Duval), but that end is really not the issue. Everyone has made this point ad nauseum, but I'm intrigued to see where K takes us on D, as this is the difficult choice he's been forcing other people into for years now.

[subzero02]

We have a long long long layoff to think about this loss and hopefully improve some in practice.

[The Gordog]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

Surprised K did not take a TO when there was 1:15 left and BC hit a 3 to take the lead. That and keeping Javin in when he got #4 had me scratching my head.

I guess we all knew we would loose a few along the way. Hopefully they can learn from this.

Go Duke!!!

[dairedevil]

Well, they have been working on that first loss for a while. It was bound to happen sometime, especially since they have been getting behind and clawing back to win. Hopefully a good lesson to play with intensity for the full 40 minutes,
.

[Bluedog]

Poor decisions and execution down the stretch. Could have easily won if a one if those plays went differently. Will hopefully make us better in the end. But can't expect a 32% 3 pt shooting team to shoot 60% while taking 26 attempts. Obviously, poor D is part of it, but sometimes your opponent plays above their normal output and it's luck of the draw.

[JD for Three!]

I always like the thought of getting that first loss to take some pressure off, but I never like it when it actually happens! Still lots of good to come from this team.

Oh, I also hate playing a team that’s had a full week off.

[22JumpShots]

Our defense (or lack thereof) had a little something to do with that. Sure, Bowman will come out in his next game and score 12 points, but a mixture of 'getting up for the Duke game' and wide-open 3-pointers is to blame.

I hope all of the players made it off safely. I saw Jon S. looking around frantically at one point like they couldn't locate someone.

[jipops]

Today does just a little to validate my opinion of this team so far. It's going to be tough ACC season. We're tracking defensively similar to last season which was a mid tier conference team. Not at all out of the question that will occur again. We're just so young. We can lose to anybody. No loss is shocking. All that matters is health and progress towards March. There will be plenty of losses like today along the way. Again, just stay healthy.

[Bob Green]

Congratulations to the BC Eagles. They shot lights out from 3PT and made their free throws down the stretch. I was surprised they hung with us on rebounds.

Next game!

[MrPoon]

Played with fire all year defensively.
Really surprised how little impact Bagley and Carter had offensivly in second half.
BC played its game all game long. The two man screen on GA or Duval forcing the big man switch, usually Bagley was literally never stopped. Every time down BC knew that play was there late in the clock. Every time.

Bummer. Rebounding consistency is also a problem. In all these close games we’ve been close or trailing on rebound margin only to turn it around late. Didn’t today. Really surprising with the size disparity.

Lots to work on during the break. Too bad. BC used the size disparity to its advantage and Duke didn’t adjust.
Good to see Trent take over and lead when others were sleep walking. He’s got a toughness about him that I really like.

[nmduke2001]

Up four with a few minutes to go and Duval takes a three early in the shot clock? If we score there, we probably win despite not playing well.

[uh_no]

maybe we can accept that this team has some major things to work on, and winning close so far isn't just a matter of "guts?"

Starts with carter's lack of effort on the boards for long stretches, and duvall's continual reverting to playing way out of control, and of course, allen's shooting (not to mention his hero ball on the last possession we reasonably had a chance)

We'll hear a lot about how they shot the lights out. that's a cop out. We held them to significantly poorer shooting in the second half, limiting attempts from three, and they STILL played largely equal to us.

Great game by trent.

Is the sky falling? no. but hopefully we can be more realistic about where we are right now.

[TNTDevil]

Welcome to the ACC rooks.

[WHOneedsSOX]

How many post touches did Bagley have in the 2nd half? 1-2? Carter had maybe the same. Too many 3's.

[devildeac]

F1-WTF? Only that PoS luckie could make that horrible a call in that situation.

We didn't deserve to win anyway but the horrible shot by Duval, followed by yet another insane 3 by BC and the beyond ridiculous F1 put that in-reach for them, then out of reach for us.

[ipatent]

Honestly...this team needed a loss. Too many pats on the back during the last few weeks where they could've easily lost 2-3 games.

0-1 in ACC play....things just got real for them.

This. They'll be a better team because of the experience today.

I had a feeling karma would strike after they hit everything they threw up against St. Francis.

[arnie]

Welcome to the ACC rooks.

Unbelievable stat - we took more 3s than BC today. Clearly we have better players but they have the better team.

[jipops]

maybe we can accept that this team has some major things to work on, and winning close so far isn't just a matter of "guts?"

Starts with carter's lack of effort on the boards for long stretches, and duvall's continual reverting to playing way out of control, and of course, allen's shooting (not to mention his hero ball on the last possession we reasonably had a chance)

We'll hear a lot about how they shot the lights out. that's a cop out. We held them to significantly poorer shooting in the second half, limiting attempts from three, and they STILL played largely equal to us.

Great game by trent.

Is the sky falling? no. but hopefully we can be more realistic about where we are right now.

Should it be really discouraging that this team looked unprepared?

[YmoBeThere]

2 of 17 from three for those not named Gary Trent Jr.
Bagley a non-factor in the second half.
Our strength is our interior scoring, Carter and Bagley were 10-14 when not trying to shoot beyond the arc.
Duval is at his best trying to drive the basket.
Lots of obvious things that we should have stuck to.
Plus it appears we've shortened the bench for ACC play as usual.

[uh_no]

Congratulations to the BC Eagles. They shot lights out from 3PT and made their free throws down the stretch. I was surprised they hung with us on rebounds.

Next game!

It shouldn't be a surprise. Duke has had a couple games where teams hung with us on the boards despite having no business doing so. Indiana comes to mind. It's all about effort, and I see too many stretches where especially carter just becomes invisible on the glass.

Part of it is shot selection too, for which allen and duvall were especially poor today.

[Ballboy1998]

BC earned the win, but that flagrant foul call was one of the most inexplicable, horrendous calls I have ever seen.

[Saratoga2]

BC had quick guards who could handle and shot lights out from three, drove the lane at times and fooled Duke with back door plays and were money from the foul line. All things Duke has had trouble with. They also had aggressive rebounding which evened up the score a little bit inside.

Duke still had chances to win this game but our offense took inadvisable shots quite a few times and coach K stayed mainly with starters for the majority of the second half which left them tired. Clearly Grayson played hard but his 3 point shot wasn't good today and he tended to make some poor shot choices and forced his shot. Duval has also been guilty of making freshman mistakes and today was no exception. You can't criticize the effort as it was there and Gary Trent had an excellent game as did DeLaurier as the 6th man. Carter and Bagley played well but we couldn't overcome our defensive weaknesses. O'Connell was in briefly but coach K must have seen something he didn't like as he wasn't back in but his shooting might have helped.

So we take a loss in a true road game against a good opponent and we have to reset our thinking and strengthen our defense to become even more formidable. We have a fine team that needs to improve communication and defensive skills and we need to recognize that our 3 point shooting is limited right now to two guys (Trent and Allen).

[WHOneedsSOX]

BC earned the win, but that flagrant foul call was one of the most inexplicable, horrendous calls I have ever seen.

Didn't help that the guy sold it so much and also pointed at the ref while falling to get the call.

Was it flagrant or intentional? I could understand intentional since he didn't have the ball.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't mind the loss, but I hated seeing that lead let go once we had it. That's when we needed to step up, and it didn't happen.
Learning experience. A painful one.

[dukelifer]

Duke played young today- BC got very hot from outside and hustled on both ends. Duke had many chances to take control but did not. D has to get better but that only comes from playing. Team is fun to watch on one side of the ball. The ease at which other teams score is not easy to watch. Just hope they figure it out by February. ACC play is never easy.

[Hauerwas]

The bigger meta question is really can an all freshman one and done team ever win the ACC regular season. Duke hasn't won it since 2010 and an 0-1 start on the road losing to a team that will finish at best 11 or 12 in the league isn't a good omen. We gave up 89 points to BC. 89 points. Wow.

[Edouble]

Ugh, this loss is gonna sting when we are vying for the top seed in the ACC Tourney in a few months. A completely winnable game late.

[SkyBrickey]

We’ve been so good at feeding our big men this year. Idk why we abandoned that in the second half. Way too many 3’s taken by us this game.

Next play.

Yeah, I would've liked to see us go inside to Carter more. He usually makes good things happen on the block with the ball. He was 5-8 from the floor today while Grayson goes 5-20, 1-9 from 3.

[uh_no]

Should it be really discouraging that this team looked unprepared?

It's either game plan or execution....and I'm betting it's not the guy with 5 titles failing to put together a competent game plan for 5 future NBA players to beat boston college.

there is no reason we should be getting out rebounded. ever. that ought to be some serious motivation for the bigs. given some of wendel's preseason comments (nobody should be close to us), I hope this is the kick in the pants he needs. it's no coincidence he was riding the bench while delaurier had 4 fouls, methinks. wouldn't be surprised if delaurier starts next week.

[OldPhiKap]

Congrats to BC, they earned and deserved the win.

Next play.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Duke played young today- BC got very hot from outside and hustled on both ends. Duke had many chances to take control but did not. D has to get better but that only comes from playing. Team is fun to watch on one side of the ball. The ease at which other teams score is not easy to watch. Just hope they figure it out by February. ACC play is never easy.

Not fun to watch when they're jacking up contested 3's.


It's either game plan or execution...and I'm betting it's not the guy with 5 titles failing to put together a competent game plan for 5 future NBA players to beat boston college.

there is no reason we should be getting out rebounded. ever. that ought to be some serious motivation for the bigs. given some of wendel's preseason comments (nobody should be close to us), I hope this is the kick in the pants he needs. it's no coincidence he was riding the bench while delaurier had 4 fouls, methinks. wouldn't be surprised if delaurier starts next week.

Is it that hard to believe they get outrebounded when the other team shoots over 50% and Duke didn't? More opportunities at defensive rebounds for them.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The rebounds were confounding. Late game play was frustrated but not smart. We will get better.

Props to BC. I hope we don't look like that again this season. We never played to our strengths.

[TKG]

Using my eye test, our D looked pretty bad. I am sure there exists some quantitative measure that contradicts this and will prove that our D is average to above average. But it sure doesn't look that way.

[duke4ever19]

I was very impressed with the job BC did in keeping Bagley out of the equation in the second half, especially in the home stretch.

He was often out of position for rebounds/put-backs and when he was fed the ball he would get harassed by the help defense and be forced to throw it back out. From a pure basketball standpoint, it was beautiful to watch.

It's not like none of our previous opponents failed to implement that game plan (they certainly tried), but for some reason, a guard-laden BC team did it the best I've seen to date.

The two deficiencies with this team are it's defense (which I chalk up to inexperience/learning curve, but can be fixed/improved) and the lack of another deadly perimeter shooter to make teams pay for over-playing Bagley and Carter. I suspect O'Connell could be that guy (I like his stroke) but he has to do it without being a liability on defense.

[azzefkram]

Have fairly underwhelming performances by everyone not named Gary, toss in some exceptionally spotty officiating, then add a heaping pile of hot shooting by BC and, Viola! an upset. BC played a great game and earned the win. It stinks heading into a break on a loss.

[jv001]

F1-WTF? Only that PoS luckie could make that horrible a call in that situation.We didn't deserve to win anyway but the horrible shot by Duval, followed by yet another insane 3 by BC and the beyond ridiculous F1 put that in-reach for them, then out of reach for us.

If the refs are going to make that call, every time Grayson has the ball we should shoot FTs and get the ball after the shots. What a terrible call, but as you said, we did not deserve to win this game. The only time Marvin and Carter get the ball consistently is when Grayson get's it to them. Duval has a lot to learn in that respect. Those behind the back passes look good sometimes but we need the sure pass and score. Trevon is looking like the freshman he is. GoDuke!

[BobBender]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

Relax, the model is not about December, it's about February and March. The 2015 team had hiccups through January, and then it came together. I know there's more money to be made in early-season neutral site games, but perhaps an early, true non-conference road game would help if the ACC season is going to start on Dec.9

[UrinalCake]

BC shot out of their minds, but we didn’t match their intensity. Other than Grayson and Trent, the team looked like they were sleepwalking. Not sure why we completely ignored Bagley after the first 10 minutes. The only time he got the ball in the second half was out past the three point line, where he either took a three or tried to drive which isn’t his strength at all.

We did a better job clos My out on the shooters in the second half, but this was a game where they got into a rhythm and then jut couldn’t miss. Some terrible decisions by Duval down the stretch as well. I’m not too upset that we lost, but wished we had executed better.

[uh_no]

Is it that hard to believe they get outrebounded when the other team shoots over 50% and Duke didn't? More opportunities at defensive rebounds for them.

Absolutely. even adjusting for opportunities, the rebounds were effectively a wash. That shouldn't happen given the talent we have on the block.

[devilseven]

Black uniforms. Have we ever played well in black uniforms?

[Reddevil]

Welcome to the ACC rooks.

Exactly right. They need to understand that they WILL take everyone's best shot. BC will now go about their mediocre ways.

Can someone please educate young basketball fans. Either insult your team by chanting "over-rated" OR storm the court. Not both. I wonder how BC's team felt about the over-rated chant. It diminishes the accomplishment dopes!

Anyway, it's probably a good loss. This is what road games in the ACC look like padawan.

[Billy Dat]

there is no reason we should be getting out rebounded. ever. that ought to be some serious motivation for the bigs. given some of wendel's preseason comments (nobody should be close to us), I hope this is the kick in the pants he needs. it's no coincidence he was riding the bench while delaurier had 4 fouls, methinks. wouldn't be surprised if delaurier starts next week.

I think K was trying to go small because Carter's perimeter defense is not a strength. When he checked back in, he got a few buckets and I thought he'd be having another game where his modest play was overcome with a final strong flourish. Twas not to be.

I mostly chalk this up to BC playing out of its proverbial mind and, unlike the other comeback games, we did seem to play young. I appreciate Grayson's fight, but this was a game where I felt like he let his emotions control him more than he should. I think he felt like he should have been getting more calls, and was trying to draw fouls instead of taking good shots.

Still, up 4 with the ball under 2 minutes, we should have won the game. The charge against Bagley when he was driving in for a lay-up was a tough whistle, Marvin trying to pass to Carter instead of shooting in the final couple of minutes was another tough decision. The offense in general seemed confused about how to attack BC's defense but, as someone else pointed out, we scored 80+. That's not usually a sign that the offense was the problem, which leads back to our D...

@JohnGasaway
For Duke fans, the good thing about playing an ACC game in early December is a head start on the annual “Our supremely talented team looks awful on defense” panic.

[MrPoon]

It's either game plan or execution...and I'm betting it's not the guy with 5 titles failing to put together a competent game plan for 5 future NBA players to beat boston college.

there is no reason we should be getting out rebounded. ever. that ought to be some serious motivation for the bigs. given some of wendel's preseason comments (nobody should be close to us), I hope this is the kick in the pants he needs. it's no coincidence he was riding the bench while delaurier had 4 fouls, methinks. wouldn't be surprised if delaurier starts next week.

The rebounding has been a theme in all close games with strong efforts late masking what was too close all game long. Really surprising to me.
Poor shot selection in the first ten minutes of the second half and bigs not helping our gaurds off of switches. The good news is the problems have been the same ones...the bad news is they aren’t improving.
Disagree with most that Duval is the problem. Not a great game for him but not why we lost. Bigs have to handle guard penetration and switch’s better and not be boxed out for long stretches. Carter was invisible in first half and Bagley much of the second.its like they were waiting for something to happen late in the game instead of making it happen.

[TNTDevil]

Exactly right. They need to understand that they WILL take everyone's best shot. BC will now go about their mediocre ways.

Can someone please educate young basketball fans. Either insult your team by chanting "over-rated" OR storm the court. Not both. I wonder how BC's team felt about the over-rated chant. It diminishes the accomplishment dopes!

Anyway, it's probably a good loss. This is what road games in the ACC look like padawan.LOL. This seems to be rampant amongst the latest classes of CBB hoops fans... yelling #$%^ just to yell, without regard to the yell's actual relevance.

Derp.

[Troublemaker]

So yeah, an over/under of 4 regular season losses is fair (although maybe bump that to 5 now), we're not the '99 team, and we can't win the ACC regular season with offense only.

I thought we actually did start this game focused and playing well but BC got hot from long range, and their hot shooting caused our play to deteriorate, particularly offensive decision-making, which was disappointing. So yeah, we didn't play 40 minutes of focused ball like I had hoped.

The rebounding wasn't too fluky. BC came into the game 76th in the country in DReb% and 27th in the country in OReb%. There are going to be opponents who can stay with us on the boards. That's why we have to play better defense, improve offensive decision-making, and hopefully find or develop another shooter (because we're not going to be able to just offensive-rebound our way to wins all the time.)

In contrast to the rebounding, BC's shooting WAS very fluky. They came into the game shooting 31.8% from three. And it wasn't just the threes. They were hot from 17 feet and midrange as well. If they weren't on fire, we would've have won, sure, but we didn't play well enough in the other areas of the game to deserve to win.

Interestingly, amid the 89 points that BC scored, we probably showed a bit of improvement in the guard/big man combo up top playing ball screens and handoffs. Particularly when compared to how poorly they played it at PK80, although there were still a couple of lapses. And Grayson had a very good defensive game. Just wish he had made better decisions on offense and/or shot better.

I'm still encouraged by the entire season to this point and look forward to seeing them grow. Good luck on finals, guys.

[Devilwin]

Lots of our guys made poor decisions with the ball. Not just Duvall. Even Grayson took several ill advised shots, as did Bagley. And this team has no clue on defense whatsoever. BC earned the win with their shooting. But we have lots of work to do during the break. We are way too talented to lose to teams like BC. It was disgusting to watch. But I believe K will right the ship.. As of now though, we are not the best team. But the potential is there..:confused:

[flyingdutchdevil]

We scored 80+ points. BC/Duke fan base was 60/40. Crowd pretty lame until final minute.

Duke needs some defensive urgency.

[uh_no]

their hot shooting caused our play to deteriorate, particularly offensive decision-making

I think that's a really important point, and certainly leads to the observation that we were "unprepared."

We need to play our offensive game regardless of what's going on on the other side. That comes with some experience, and the best we can do is hope the guys learn from it.

[Saratoga2]

BC shot out of their minds, but we didn’t match their intensity. Other than Grayson and Trent, the team looked like they were sleepwalking. Not sure why we completely ignored Bagley after the first 10 minutes. The only time he got the ball in the second half was out past the three point line, where he either took a three or tried to drive which isn’t his strength at all.

We did a better job clos My out on the shooters in the second half, but this was a game where they got into a rhythm and then jut couldn’t miss. Some terrible decisions by Duval down the stretch as well. I’m not too upset that we lost, but wished we had executed better.

Yes, Duval made mistakes trying for the spectacular play and driving into a crowd. He needs to adjust his game, but he has exceptional talent and will come along. Grayson played very hard and did some good things but his shot was off a mile and he kept taking it, early in the clock when there were other options. Grayson and Duval are quality players who have to look at the game tapes and make adjustments.

[weezie]

Two things: better be real sure when dribbling behind back in traffic and under the backboard and no standing still to watch the Grayson Allen Show. Keep moving.

[jv001]

I think K was trying to go small because Carter's perimeter defense is not a strength. When he checked back in, he got a few buckets and I thought he'd be having another game where his modest play was overcome with a final strong flourish. Twas not to be.

I mostly chalk this up to BC playing out of its proverbial mind and, unlike the other comeback games, we did seem to play young. I appreciate Grayson's fight, but this was a game where I felt like he let his emotions control him more than he should. I think he felt like he should have been getting more calls, and was trying to draw fouls instead of taking good shots.

Still, up 4 with the ball under 2 minutes, we should have won the game. The charge against Bagley when he was driving in for a lay-up was a tough whistle, Marvin trying to pass to Carter instead of shooting in the final couple of minutes was another tough decision. The offense in general seemed confused about how to attach BC's defense but, as someone else pointed out, we scored 80+. That's not usually a sign that the offense was the problem, which leads back to our D...

@JohnGasaway
For Duke fans, the good thing about playing an ACC game in early December is a head start on the annual “Our supremely talented team looks awful on defense” panic.

Agree with your entire post. Carter get's lost on defense a lot and so does Trevon. The back door on Trevon really hurt late in the game. OADs trying to learn K's man2man D :confused:

I too was pleased with Grayson's fight but not so much with his emotions getting the best of him. It looked like he wanted to quiet the BC crowd. By the way, whoever said they would not have many fans at the game was way off.

I have to give BC credit for taking our bigs out of the game at times. That's a first but I don't think it will be the last time we see it. I'm hoping Coach K has a Bobby Hurley sit down with Mr. Duval. GoDuke!

[Blue KevIL]

Black uniforms. Have we ever played well in black uniforms?

Since the introduction of the Black Uniforms in 1996-97:

Duke has played 131 games wearing Black with a record of 92-39 (.7023) -- 34 losses on the Road with 27 Court Stormings
Duke has played 136 games wearing Blue with a record of 95-41 (.6985) -- 34 losses on the Road with 23 Court Stormings

[uh_no]

Since the introduction of the Black Uniforms in 1996-97:

Duke has played 131 games wearing Black with a record of 92-39 (.7023) -- 34 losses on the Road with 27 Court Stormings
Duke has played 136 games wearing Blue with a record of 95-41 (.6985) -- 34 losses on the Road with 23 Court Stormings


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9_pPqWfI84

people have short memories....

[InSpades]

1st off, congrats to BC. They played great. Hot shooting aside... cause some might just say they were hot, they played a great game.

If Duke plays offense in the 2nd half like they played in the 1st half... we probably win the game anyway. I love Grayson but you have to know when it's not your night... er... afternoon. It's great that he wants the ball in his hands and if it's not in the post w/ Bagley then that's where it should be. But he has to create for his teammates and not take tough forced shots.

We shot 30 3s and 39 2s. In a game where Grayson couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. This is just dumb offense, I don't know how else to put it. Many of the 3s were outside the flow of the offense.

On our 3s we scored 24 points... .8 points per shot. On our 2s we were 24 of 39. That's 1.23 points per shot. This is ignoring the fact that we are much more likely to go to the line when shootings 2s and much more likely to get an offensive rebound (especially one close to the basket).

Our defense was not good... but our shot selection was worse. It seemed like we panicked in the 2nd half. We took a bunch of out of control drives as well but at least many of those led to offensive rebounds.

We turned the defensive intensity up a bit in the 2nd half... it still wasn't great but was miles better than the 1st half. We need that for 40 minutes every game. Maybe they'll figure that out soon.

[jv001]

We scored 80+ points. BC/Duke fan base was 60/40. Crowd pretty lame until final minute. Duke needs some defensive urgency.

Except when Grayson had the ball. :cool: GoDuke!

[Wander]

Not sure there's a lot to really take away from this game - we lose when the other team hits 15 threes? OK, whatever.

The only small exception is that I think we'd be better right now if Duval wasn't a starter and we played through Grayson as PG - but we're targeting March, and playing Duval now is probably better in the longer term.

[scottdude8]

Black uniforms. Have we ever played well in black uniforms?

I missed the game today as I was in the arena watching Michigan's comeback OT win over the UCLA Lavar Balls. I was confounded by how we let this game slip through our fingers. This explains everything.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Except when Grayson had the ball. :cool: GoDuke!

Just basic booing. Nothing creative. Grayson did really well with the crowd and talked with officials. He was great. Can’t say the same for our bigs.

[scottdude8]

Since the introduction of the Black Uniforms in 1996-97:

Duke has played 131 games wearing Black with a record of 92-39 (.7023) -- 34 losses on the Road with 27 Court Stormings
Duke has played 136 games wearing Blue with a record of 95-41 (.6985) -- 34 losses on the Road with 23 Court Stormings


As a soon to be PhD in Applied Mathematics, my analysis of these numbers are... um... I HATE BLACK UNIFORMS THEY ARE CURSED THE END. That's how Math works, haha.

[jipops]

Using my eye test, our D looked pretty bad. I am sure there exists some quantitative measure that contradicts this and will prove that our D is average to above average. But it sure doesn't look that way.

Well, relative to other top teams, our D is trending towards being pretty bad. Unfortunately this is following a familiar refrain to past teams since 2012 (2015 being the anomaly). About 3 weeks ago we were 36th in defensive eficiency in Kenpom. Now we're 70th. Before today we were in the upper 50's.

I think K has been making a concerted effort to drill man-to-man habits into this team by no longer resorting to zone like he did in the first 5 games. Unfortunately it's just not going well and it's probably going to keep getting worse before any possibility of getting better.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not sure there's a lot to really take away from this game - we lose when the other team hits 15 threes? OK, whatever.

The only small exception is that I think we'd be better right now if Duval wasn't a starter and we played through Grayson as PG - but we're targeting March, and playing Duval now is probably better in the longer term.

Duval is playing the toughest position for a coach who demands the most from players in said position. He had a bad game. You know who else had a bad game? Wendell Cater. The Duval criticism is insane on DBR.

[jv001]

The biggest idiot in the building was the one that made the choice to turn out the lights just before the lame court storming. In the world we live in today, that could have turned out bad. It only takes one nut job to take a cheap shot at the most hated player in sports and do some damage to his career. GoDuke!

[Skydog]

On offense Bagley spent most of the 2nd half hanging around the 3 pt line, trying to set picks. I understand attempting to run a pick and roll for him but that wasn't working. I just don't understand why we didn't set up more with him under the basket? He's almost unstoppable when he receives the ball in or around the paint - he'll score or get fouled or make a great inside out pass 90% of the time. Plus we need him inside for his offensive rebound put backs. Seems like we just sheathed our best weapon when we needed it most and I don't understand the reasoning.

[flyingdutchdevil]

On offense Bagley spent most of the 2nd half hanging around the 3 pt line, trying to set picks. I understand attempting to run a pick and roll for him but that wasn't working. I just don't understand why we didn't set up more with him under the basket. He's almost unstoppable when he receives the ball in or around the paint - he'll score or get fouled or make a great inside out pass 90% of the time. Seems like we just sheathed our best weapon when we needed it most.

The refs called Bagley differently today. As a result, he wasn’t his aggressive self. He was very hesitant. I don’t blame him. BC was really smart with Bagley this game. Their coaching was incredible. We got out coached. Nothing wrong with that.

[jv001]

On offense Bagley spent most of the 2nd half hanging around the 3 pt line, trying to set picks. I understand attempting to run a pick and roll for him but that wasn't working. I just don't understand why we didn't set up more with him under the basket. He's almost unstoppable when he receives the ball in or around the paint - he'll score or get fouled or make a great inside out pass 90% of the time. Seems like we just sheathed our best weapon when we needed it most.

In the first half Marvin was stationed down low and he got some touches and some put backs. But like you mention, in the 2nd half he was mainly at the top of the circle setting screens. I didn't get that either. GoDuke!

[WHOneedsSOX]

Duval is playing the toughest position for a coach who demands the most from players in said position. He had a bad game. You know who else had a bad game? Wendell Cater. The Duval criticism is insane on DBR.

Seems to me Duval is a score first PG who's being asked to pass first and distribute the ball. Then he gets antsy that he's not scoring and forces something. Tyus Jones obviously was the complete opposite.

[TNTDevil]

Not sure there's a lot to really take away from this game - we lose when the other team hits 15 threes? OK, whatever.

The only small exception is that I think we'd be better right now if Duval wasn't a starter and we played through Grayson as PG - but we're targeting March, and playing Duval now is probably better in the longer term.This is a recipe that almost always results in a loss for Duke. (Or, any other team for that matter. But, I don't watch too many other teams.) A player, or players, go HAM on us shooting because they're up to play Duke.

And, according to the template, we lose our focus and, eventually, the game.

[jv001]

One other thing that hurt was Trevon getting in foul trouble early in the game. His 2nd foul came after a mistake on offense and he just reached out and grabbed the BC player. He's got to learn that he's too valuable to the team to sit on the bench for long stretches. Once again a freshman learning experience. Let's hope the players pay attention to the coaches when teaching begins at the next practice session. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Seems to me Duval is a score first PG who's being asked to pass first and distribute the ball. Then he gets antsy that he's not scoring and forces something. Tyus Jones obviously was the complete opposite.

Yeah. Tyus’s 5.6 assists a game va Trevon’s 7.0 assists a game really helps to prove your point.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Yeah. Tyus’s 5.6 assists a game va Trevon’s 7.0 assists a game really helps to prove your point.

So you think Duval is a pass first point guard?

[Coballs]

I thought Duke was in very good shape when the BC lead was cut to one at 66-65 with 9+ minutes remaining in the second half and we were already in the double bonus. I anticipated that much of the rest of the game would be spent at the foul line. Unfortunately we didn't take advantage of this. Bagley and Carter got few touches around the rim and we continued to settle for jumpers.

[jv001]

Yeah. Tyus’s 5.6 assists a game va Trevon’s 7.0 assists a game really helps to prove your point.

And Tyus was a much better shooter. Tyus was both a scoring point guard and good distributor. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

Duval is playing the toughest position for a coach who demands the most from players in said position. He had a bad game. You know who else had a bad game? Wendell Cater. The Duval criticism is insane on DBR.

I think insane is a good word.

He's not perfect...but he's still a really good player. People want tyus and kyrie from every PG that walks into the doors of cameron. he's not tyus or kyrie, but he's still really really good. his A/TO is nearly 3, and he's averaging 12.5 points while not getting into foul trouble. From a freshman PG? sounds good to me.

He makes mistakes of being too aggressive sometimes, sure.....but what's disappointing is that SHOULD be an easy fix....but he seems to lapse back into the pattern.

I see him giving effort and making freshman mistakes. get his head under control, and he's a heck of a player.

[dukelifer]

The refs called Bagley differently today. As a result, he wasn’t his aggressive self. He was very hesitant. I don’t blame him. BC was really smart with Bagley this game. Their coaching was incredible. We got out coached. Nothing wrong with that.

Also got out shot in critical moments. Duke was in a position to win and did not execute. Good teams execute. Duke has done so up to today. Hopefully they figure it out. .

[CameronBornAndBred]

Toughest stat for me to take is that we got outrebounded 35-34.
That is huge...especially since we are the taller team. I don't know how those boards translated to second chance points, but I would guess that we come up on the short end of that stick.

[Blue KevIL]

Since the introduction of the Black Uniforms in 1996-97:

Duke has played 131 games wearing Black with a record of 92-39 (.7023) -- 34 losses on the Road with 27 Court Stormings
Duke has played 136 games wearing Blue with a record of 95-41 (.6985) -- 34 losses on the Road with 23 Court Stormings


Here are the Splits:



BLACK vs RANKED (AWAY)
29 Games
18 Wins
11 Losses
.6207

BLACK vs UNRANKED (AWAY)
76 Games
53 Wins
23 Losses
.6974

BLACK vs ALL (AWAY)
105 Games
71 Wins
34 Losses
.6762


BLACK vs RANKED (NEUTRAL)
13 Games
8 Wins
5 Losses
.6154

BLACK vs UNRANKED (NEUTRAL)
12 Games
12 Wins
0 Losses
1.000

BLACK vs ALL (NEUTRAL)
25 Games
20 Wins
5 Losses
.8000


BLACK vs RANKED (HOME)
0 Games
0 Wins
0 Losses
.0000

BLACK vs UNRANKED (HOME)
1 Games
1 Wins
0 Losses
1.000

BLACK vs ALL (HOME)
1 Games
1 Wins
0 Losses
1.000


BLACK vs RANKED (TOTAL)
42 Games
26 Wins
16 Losses
.6190

BLACK vs UNRANKED (TOTAL)
89 Games
66 Wins
23 Losses
.7416

BLACK vs ALL (TOTAL)
131 Games
92 Wins
39 Losses
.7023








































BLUE vs RANKED (AWAY)
37 Games
17 Wins
20 Losses
.4595

BLUE vs UNRANKED (AWAY)
68 Games
54 Wins
14 Losses
.7941

BLUE vs ALL (AWAY)
105 Games
71 Wins
34 Losses
.6762


BLUE vs RANKED (NEUTRAL)
14 Games
8 Wins
6 Losses
.5714

BLUE vs UNRANKED (NEUTRAL)
17 Games
16 Wins
1 Losses
.9412

BLUE vs ALL (NEUTRAL)
31 Games
24 Wins
7 Losses
.7742


BLUE vs RANKED (HOME)
0 Games
0 Wins
0 Losses
.0000

BLUE vs UNRANKED (HOME)
0 Games
0 Wins
0 Losses
.0000

BLUE vs ALL (HOME)
0 Games
0 Wins
0 Losses
.0000


BLUE vs RANKED (TOTAL)
51 Games
25 Wins
26 Losses
.4902

BLUE vs UNRANKED (TOTAL)
85 Games
70 Wins
15 Losses
.8235

BLUE vs ALL (TOTAL)
136 Games
95 Wins
41 Losses
.6985

[jv001]

I think insane is a good word.

He's not perfect...but he's still a really good player. People want tyus and kyrie from every PG that walks into the doors of cameron. he's not tyus or kyrie, but he's still really really good. his A/TO is nearly 3, and he's averaging 12.5 points while not getting into foul trouble. From a freshman PG? sounds good to me.

I think Trevon is a really good player but like all freshmen he has some room for improvement. Like Grayson today, Trevon could have played better. However neither lacked for effort. One player that seemed to lack the effort that those two gave was Carter. It looked like Coach K sat him for a good stretch because he was out of place on defense. That really hurt on the switches up top that resulted on some open threes. Just my opinion. GoDuke!

[wobatus]

1st off, congrats to BC. They played great. Hot shooting aside... cause some might just say they were hot, they played a great game.



We turned the defensive intensity up a bit in the 2nd half... it still wasn't great but was miles better than the 1st half. We need that for 40 minutes every game. Maybe they'll figure that out soon.


Bowman and Robinson are from North Carolina and seem to love playing the Big 4 teams. Last year BC had some leads on UNC and were within 2 with 8 minutes left. Bowman had 33 and Robinson 18 that day. BC seems to be turning a corner. A shame they lost Hawkins for the year, but they will give some teams fits.

The 2015 Duke team got blown out at home by Miami. They turned out ok.

[moonpie23]

bowman and robinson......off the chain..


MUST IMPROVE DEFENSE!!!

[jipops]

Bowman and Robinson are from North Carolina and seem to love playing the Big 4 teams. Last year BC had some leads on UNC and were within 2 with 8 minutes left. Bowman had 33 and Robinson 18 that day. BC seems to be turning a corner. A shame they lost Hawkins for the year, but they will give some teams fits.

The 2015 Duke team got blown out at home by Miami. They turned out ok.

That same team also lost @NC State by double digits in the previous game. The start of the ACC schedule was a struggle. Not unreasonable to expect the same from this team.

[ncexnyc]

I seem to recall this board getting all over Tatum last year when he dribbled the ball off his heel at the end of the NCSU game. I tried to remind people he was just a freshman and at least he didn't shy away from wanting the ball in that situation. I think he ended up having a pretty good season and I believe that when all was said and done he was our best player last year.

As our PG, Trevon has his hands on the ball more than any other player on our team and therefore his mistakes tend to standout. This isn't something we should be surprised at and since we've clearly gone down the OAD road we'd better get used to it.

Tons of credit to BC for hanging tough even when we took the lead near the end of the game. They could have folded, but they kept playing their game while we made some questionable decisions on the offensive end.

As a fan of Duke basketball I know that we've won more than our share of games we had no business winning due to our hot shooting from 3 pt land. Today it was our turn to get lit up by an undersized but hot shooting team. We'll win more than our share of games this year pounding people in the paint, but today wasn't that day.

[WillJ]

BC played great - props to them.
Our defense is a work in progress, and guarding quick, good-shooting teams (or at least teams that shoot good:)) will be a challenge for us all year. But I like our team a lot.
I thought Coach K got out x'ed and o'ed a bit in this game, but that happens sometimes. I'm sure he's having to modify his strategy in response to our new personnel this year.

[Furniture]

The Duval criticism is insane on DBR.

Insane seems a fair description of it.

[NYBri]

Duvall is not the answer to our PG problems. I think he'll continue to be a liability on offense for the rest of the year.

Duval is the answer to the PG problems. The problem is that he thinks he's a shooting guard. Dish first, drive and dish second, shoot third. He'll learn, I hope. :cool:

[dyedwab]

...I find losses like this infuriating. We played a team that will struggle to get to a .500 record, and won't make the tournament. But today they outplayed us and won.

I get the reason (we are young, they are jack-up, they shot insanely, etc.). And I know all the other arguments about previous year (Miami drilled us at home in '15, we got blown out at G'Town in '10 etc).

Here's the thing - all the losses like this, at least since the 1-and-done era started, look like this. The other team shoots out of it's mind, our defense is terrible, which eventually leads to a lack of focus on the offense end, which degenerates into hero ball and bad decision making. On the whole, our offense will look fine, but our defense will be the culprit. And some hustle stat, like, say, rebounding, will look odd, because our focus/effort/decision-making wasn't there.

Yeah, we'll be better. Yeah, they'll learn from it. But I HATE underperforming our talent. And we did today. By a lot.

[Billy Dat]

Toughest stat for me to take is that we got outrebounded 35-34.
That is huge...especially since we are the taller team. I don't know how those boards translated to second chance points, but I would guess that we come up on the short end of that stick.

In the press conference, K talked about this, and how many of those second chances led to made 3s which were like punches in the stomach.

He also lauded BC and said he thought Duke fought really hard. He didn’t slag the team’s effort at all. When asked about the poor defense, K kind of fell back on two of his old saws “we haven’t practiced” and “we aren’t deep”. His point about the depth had to do with perimeter depth, saying that it limits your line-ups. Translation - we don’t have the horses to play small if any of the guards have foul trouble. I think Javin fouling out hurt in that regard.

Too bad for Gary that his huge offensive day ended in a L.

I’ll ride with Trevon anytime, I think he’s a team oriented guy who is all about winning and I thinn his erratic plays are about trying to help the team win rather than it being about him getting the shine for leading us to a win.

[JD for Three!]

I like Duval. I see a lot more positives than negatives with him. If I want to get nit picky, I’d say that it seems like he reaches and picks up some quick, early fouls. That has led in a couple of games to longer stretches on the bench. Then Grayson shifts to PG, and we lose some of his threat as a 2. Again, nit picky and I’m sure Duval will correct it. We are best with our best weapons in place.

[Selover]

I was pretty surprised how the lowered the lights way down as the students rushed the court.

[ipatent]

Disappointing, but hard to win when the opponent is shooting like that. They showed heart making the comeback and getting the lead. The three that took the lead away was well defended with a hand in the face. The man to man is a work in progress, and the only way it is going to get better is to practice it in game situations.

Trevon's game is pretty advanced for a freshman. Wouldn't want to see him taking more than two three point attempts per game, and he doesn't, but his drives into the paint and on the break are an important part of the offense.

[wobatus]

That same team also lost @NC State by double digits in the previous game. The start of the ACC schedule was a struggle. Not unreasonable to expect the same from this team.

They were kenpom 173 last year and now 86. Off a big win of course. Sure, they are thin but those 2 can go off and a little better this year. Mitchell the freshman was solid.

[duke4ever19]

Insane seems a fair description of it.

Like someone pointed out upthread, because he has the ball in his hands, everything is magnified.

I love Duval and I absolutely think people are too hard on him, especially considering that it's early in the season . . . but . . . the one glaring weakness in his game is his perimeter shooting, and despite all the good things he did today, on two possessions in the second half, with Duke trying to create space in the scoring column, Duval gambled on that weakness actually suddenly becoming a strength to help Duke stretch hard-fought slim leads vs. a hot-shooting BC team. I think both three-attempts I'm referring to came from the left side of the court, one was definitely from the corner.

A Duval three is the one play that BC would have most wanted on a Duke possession, other than a turnover. As for Duke, A Duval three is usually just an opportunity to get an offensive rebound and either reset the play, or get a put-back if available. Today, BC did enough to minimize our ability to make something of those errant three-point shots.

I'd be interested to know how many offensive rebounds we get off of Duval threes and what the result of those plays are (score or turnover etc.).

[Wander]

Duval is playing the toughest position for a coach who demands the most from players in said position. He had a bad game. You know who else had a bad game? Wendell Cater. The Duval criticism is insane on DBR.

I barely even care about this game in particular - teams generally aren't going to make that many threes against us, maybe not ever again the rest of this season. Not worried.

But I'd say Duval's shooting and defense have been bad all year, and is not reflective of just "a bad game." Again, we should be playing him heavy minutes because he gives our team the best chance to win in March. But it's something to keep an eye on if he's still struggling in these areas in February.

[weezie]

I was pretty surprised how the lowered the lights way down as the students rushed the court.


I think the light control sergeant might have fainted with joy and keeled over on the switch. Just flat passed out.

[dukelifer]

BC played great - props to them.
Our defense is a work in progress, and guarding quick, good-shooting teams (or at least teams that shoot good:)) will be a challenge for us all year. But I like our team a lot.
I thought Coach K got out x'ed and o'ed a bit in this game, but that happens sometimes. I'm sure he's having to modify his strategy in response to our new personnel this year.

Perhaps it is down in the thread but why was Bagley up top for the last few minutes of the game?

[Sixthman]

Up four with a few minutes to go and Duval takes a three early in the shot clock? If we score there, we probably win despite not playing well.

Completely agree. This was not the only bad decision down the stretch but was the worst and points to how far Duval is from being a true point guard -- decision making geared toward helping the team make the right choice and making things easier for others.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I barely even care about this game in particular - teams generally aren't going to make that many threes against us, maybe not ever again the rest of this season. Not worried.

But I'd say Duval's shooting and defense have been bad all year, and is not reflective of just "a bad game." Again, we should be playing him heavy minutes because he gives our team the best chance to win in March. But it's something to keep an eye on if he's still struggling in these areas in February.

You realize Duval is shooting better than Trent and Grayson from 2pt range? His 3pt shooting is atrocious, but he’s good inside the arc. I do agree with his D. He’s a little slow. But then so is everyone not named Trent or DeLaurier (Bags is a surprisingly mediocre defender).

[KandG]

Just got back from the game and have to say that the atmosphere was better for this particular Duke-BC game than it has been in a while, though that isn't saying much because BC has been bad in recent matchups. Seems like they're trying harder to create a loud environment, though as others have said, there was a *ton* of Duke blue in the crowd that was vocal at points, especially when it looked like Duke would take control for good.

Watching our D up close brought no surprises -- the bigs move slowly laterally, our perimeter players don't always seem to communicate well, and the attempts at pressure up high were too easily compromised by a ball screen and/or some ball reversal. This resulted in what felt like a hailstorm of wide open corner 3s.

Defense was marginally better in the second half, especially when DuLaurier was in as part of a small lineup. The two cheap fouls Javin picked up to foul out *really* hurt, even though Carter did good things when re-entering the game (and it looked like we had the separation we needed up 79-75). Think Coach K missed the ability to use Javin to substitute offense-defense toward the end. Javin's ability to cover temporary gaps in the D and help from the weak side make a big difference...with Carter, even when he does a reasonable job of containing a guard turning a corner off a screen, he's just not quick or adept enough at focusing on D through multiple passes and/or anticipating what's coming from the weak side.

From the standpoint of the crowd, there was an audible groan from the Duke sections when Duval took that 3 pointer in front of us, and the offensive foul call on Bagley and flagrant foul call on Duval were dreadful. That said, BC looked super energized from the start and seemed to execute with an extra level of verve -- they just *flew* into their sets and had an extra gear, constantly seeking mismatches and not dropping their heads after a miss or turnover.

I think this game will be a really good teaching moment for Bagley and Duval especially. Bagley has always looked like the guy with the highest motor even when his team is drifting through stretches of indifferent play, but BC scouted him well, and his response when shut down inside was to drift outside and either fire up speculative 3s or try to mash in for offensive rebounds. He got nothing in transition and the lack of an in-between game to make the D work harder was notable (though it's not all on MB III... some of the decision making & shot selection by the guards was suboptimal).

(Bagley's D on switches is also starting to worry me, though I'll wait a few more games to render judgment)

Duval has already been dissected a ton on this thread and I'm inclined to give him a pass given the learning curve for freshman PGs. The early fouls didn't help, but generally speaking, we're a much better team when he's not an offensive cipher and can give us points and make good decisions. Today was a very mixed bag, but I think he'll figure it out.

Everyone's (understandably) focusing on our meltdown at the end, but watching up close, it's impressive watching this team make a big lead vanish like THAT with just a few good minutes of offense and acceptable defense, even when the opponent is playing way above their heads: the talent level on this team is that great. But Duke's inability to kill off opponents like Indiana and BC until very late (or not at all) speaks to some habits that need to be built, which is natural with young teams.

It's a cliche, but nothing focuses a team like a loss. Hope this loss accelerates that focus and the growth of this team.

[MrPoon]

The refs called Bagley differently today. As a result, he wasn’t his aggressive self. He was very hesitant. I don’t blame him. BC was really smart with Bagley this game. Their coaching was incredible. We got out coached. Nothing wrong with that.

It’s hard to ever question the GOAT but I’m glad to hear someone else think this. I know we are young but I just didn’t see the same types of adjustments I’ve come to expect. Their offense wasn’t something very complicated but it worked all game. While we scored enough to typically win, with this year’s D, we need to score often. We need to take the crowd out and our shot selection really surprised me because it got worse. We never adjusted. I didn’t see successful called offensive plays. Either Bagley or Carter should be at an advantage every posession but we didn’t take advantage most of the game. Yes they were packing the paint and leaving our shooters open, but we have to move the defense. We seemed very reluctant to feed the post. Don’t get it.

[AtlDuke72]

I was very impressed with the job BC did in keeping Bagley out of the equation in the second half, especially in the home stretch.

He was often out of position for rebounds/put-backs and when he was fed the ball he would get harassed by the help defense and be forced to throw it back out. From a pure basketball standpoint, it was beautiful to watch.

It's not like none of our previous opponents failed to implement that game plan (they certainly tried), but for some reason, a guard-laden BC team did it the best I've seen to date.

The two deficiencies with this team are it's defense (which I chalk up to inexperience/learning curve, but can be fixed/improved) and the lack of another deadly perimeter shooter to make teams pay for over-playing Bagley and Carter. I suspect O'Connell could be that guy (I like his stroke) but he has to do it without being a liability on defense.

Starting guards shot 1 for 13 from three. Allen 5 for 20. Hard to win making 2 point baskets when the other team makes a boat load. Really do not understand the criticisms of Bagley and Carter in this game

[Devilwin]

I never believed we'd go unbeaten. But with all these super players on this team, I certainly didn't think we could lose to BC. Just at a loss for words. We played poorly at times, and made horrible decisions, especially with shot selection. Defense was non existent for most of the game. I like others didn't understand why we abandoned the inside twin towers of Bagley and Carter. Our three point shooting save for Trent was just awful. I doubt BC had anything to do with that, we just rushed our shots. This one stings. First ACC test and we failed. But I think it will turn around, we are too good and have the Legend coaching. But that defense puzzles me. Time and time again in every game someone is getting to the rim on us unchallenged. This aspect of the game has got to be addressed if we want to contend for any post season honors.
Again, it was good to see Trent getting his stroke, and he has the heart of a lion, leading the comeback with his hustle.:confused:

[mgtr]

Lot of good points here. I am glad we have Duval, as many have pointed out, he will be essential in March. Bad offensive game for GA, some days you cannot hit the broad side of a barn. I would not be surprised at all to see Javin start the next game -- need some kind of prod to get Carter moving. I hate to lose at anything, but maybe this loss was necessary to shake up a few people, and maybe make some changes.

[bullettoothtony]

It is difficult to believe or accept how bad we are on defense more often than not. And other than our run at the end of 2015, it's a year-to-year problem.

[aaron100s]

1: I don't have a criticism of Bagley or Carter specifically, but why didn't we get them the ball in the post more? Why do we need to take 30 3's in a game that we should be able to dominate in the paint?
2: Grayson had some great hustle plays on defense but offensively he was really really bad.
3: Love what I'm seeing form Trent, specifically from 3.
4: How is that a flagrant 1?
5: Did anyone else think the offensive foul called on Bagley driving baseline down the stretch was a terrible call? Me too.
6: I would like to see O'connell play more.
7: I would have liked to see us in a 3-2 zone some once it was obvious they were on fire from 3.
8: They out rebounded us!
9: They out rebounded us!!!
10: Duke was up 4 with 3 minutes left and Duval took a 3??!! Why on earth? Pretty sure it was still fairly early in the shot clock too. Dude is shooting 16% from 3. Every time he shoots one I literally yell "Noooo" at my TV. I feel like that turned the tide back in BC's favor. I believe they proceeded to hit a 3 after that bad shot by Duval.
11: Loses with this young of a team were/are inevitable. Go Duke!!

[Furniture]

I like Duval. I see a lot more positives than negatives with him. If I want to get nit picky, I’d say that it seems like he reaches and picks up some quick, early fouls. That has led in a couple of games to longer stretches on the bench. Then Grayson shifts to PG, and we lose some of his threat as a 2. Again, nit picky and I’m sure Duval will correct it. We are best with our best weapons in place.

I love all of our team but what I don’t get is so many picking on anything that Duval might do wrong and they don’t talk about anything good. In contrast while there are a lot of compliments about Grayson today very few are talking about his 1 for 9 for 3 Pointers. Seems like a double standard to me.
just sayin.....

[UrinalCake]

Need to give some props to Grayson for his toughness in this game. He dove on the floor for steals numerous times, took a tough charge in transition and had Javin immediately land on his head, then didn’t miss a single possession after getting greased up. Played 38 minutes while enduring the constant booing. I thought his defense was actually pretty good today especially when he was moved to the point.

I still don’t understand all the switching that we do. Our opponents all know they can get a switch any time they want, just set a simple screen 30 feet from the basket, have the guard dribble across it and now they’ve got Bagley or Carter guarding the point guard. Every single time, with zero effort they can get a mismatch. We make no attempt to fight through the screen, to recognize that the guard isn’t actually attacking the basket so we don’t need to switch, or to switch back when the balk gets reversed to the other side of the court and the two defenders could simply communicate and switch back. But I’ve been saying this for years.

[kshepinthehouse]

1: I don't have a criticism of Bagley or Carter specifically, but why didn't we get them the ball in the post more? Why do we need to take 30 3's in a game that we should be able to dominate in the paint?
2: Grayson had some great hustle plays on defense but offensively he was really really bad.
3: Love what I'm seeing form Trent, specifically from 3.
4: How is that a flagrant 1?
5: Did anyone else think the offensive foul called on Bagley driving baseline down the stretch was a terrible call? Me too.
6: I would like to see O'connell play more.
7: I would have liked to see us in a 3-2 zone some once it was obvious they were on fire from 3.
8: They out rebounded us!
9: They out rebounded us!!!
10: Duke was up 4 with 3 minutes left and Duval took a 3??!! Why on earth? Pretty sure it was still fairly early in the shot clock too. Dude is shooting 16% from 3. Every time he shoots one I literally yell "Noooo" at my TV. I feel like that turned the tide back in BC's favor. I believe they proceeded to hit a 3 after that bad shot by Duval.
11: Loses with this young were/are inevitable. Go Duke!!

#5 I’m not even sure what the call was. Are they saint Bagley dislodged the defender?

[UrinalCake]

Also, what happened to the aggressive trapping 3-2 zone we played against MSU for the entire game? That was so effective and played well to our strengths. In this game (and most games since then) when we went zone it was a lazy, sit back and stand there 2-3 zone that they could beat by simply overloading one side and having a shooter stand in the gap between two defenders. I’m not a coach by any stretch of the imagination, but these things seem like really simple issues to fix.

[utahdevil]

One other thing that hurt was Trevon getting in foul trouble early in the game. His 2nd foul came after a mistake on offense and he just reached out and grabbed the BC player. He's got to learn that he's too valuable to the team to sit on the bench for long stretches. Once again a freshman learning experience. Let's hope the players pay attention to the coaches when teaching begins at the next practice session. GoDuke!

I've noticed that Duval tends to commit dumb, reach in fouls immediately after he turns the ball over. Instead of hustling back he just reaches out as if he's going to pick the guy's pocket and get the ball back. I have yet to see it work.

[rsvman]

Plays/events that stand out in my mind...
Grayson missing the front end of a 1 and 1 during the comeback

Carter's lane violation taking away a scored point. I remember thinking "I hope we don't need that point later"

Duval shooting that corner 3 early in the shot clock

Duval losing his man on the back door alley oop that will be on every highlight reel

Duval getting the flagrant 1 at the most inopportune time

It seemed like after we crawled back and took the lead we just thought the game was won.

Very disappointing loss. They will get better as the season progresses.

[aaron100s]

#5 I’m not even sure what the call was. Are they saint Bagley dislodged the defender?

Exactly, I watched the play several times and still have no idea what he did wrong.

[AtlDuke72]

Completely agree. This was not the only bad decision down the stretch but was the worst and points to how far Duval is from being a true point guard -- decision making geared toward helping the team make the right choice and making things easier for others.

Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.

[Furniture]

10: Duke was up 4 with 3 minutes left and Duval took a 3??!! Why on earth? Pretty sure it was still fairly early in the shot clock too. Dude is shooting 16% from 3. Every time he shoots one I literally yell "Noooo" at my TV. I feel like that turned the tide back in BC's favor. I believe they proceeded to hit a 3 after that bad shot by Duval.


On an recent interview Duval said that the coaches are telling him to shoot. I except that they know better anyone on DBR. I am a humble person but on this one I know I am right.

[UrinalCake]

#5 I’m not even sure what the call was. Are they saint Bagley dislodged the defender?

They never showed the replay, I assume it was for a hook or a push off but who knows. I thought Bagley’s third foul was pretty questionable too, he was defending Bowman on a drive and didn’t appear to hit his arms at all.

Duval’s flagrant was also a weird call, I guess it was for grabbing the jersey. Probably shouldn’t have been a flagrant, but regardless it was a terrible decision by Duval to grab his jersey. We had succeeded in getting the ball out of Chapman’s hands (the guy who shoots 96% from the line) and had a chance to foul the guy with the ball. At that point we still had a slim chance of a miss and then hitting a 3. But Duval fouls Chapman off the ball, and that was it.

[Dukehky]

That, uhhh... Wasn't great.

[aaron100s]

Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.

I disagree. He should not have taken a 3 there. He's shooting 16% from 3 and there was still too much time left on the shot clock. Kill some seconds, shot fake and drive or swing the ball around and get a much higher percentage shot.

[Jackson]

BC could never replicate that shooting ever. Undefeated seasons don't happen. Early loss. Easy to recover. We didn't get the ball down low enough,secondly, second chance opportunities for BC was a killer, and Duval needs to shoot better or never take an outside shot. We couldn't zone due to their hot shooting but we were ineffective in man.

[ipatent]

BC took advantage of a number of friendly bounces to get offensive rebounds. The game was a statistical outlier, but outliers happen over the course of the season. Hopefully the same won't happen in the postseason, but Duke has a lot of work to do on adjusting to screens in the man to man between now and then.

[UrinalCake]

Plays/events that stand out in my mind...
Carter's lane violation taking away a scored point. I remember thinking "I hope we don't need that point later"

The crazy thing about that play is that it was a two shot foul and Carter committed the violation on the first shot. There is no reason on earth to do that. Make or miss, it's a dead ball and Trent gets another shot. In this OAD era we've grown accustomed to chalking a lot up to "freshman mistakes," but this season is just on a whole different level.

[Dukehky]

Their 2 best players were 10/11 from 3's. If that happens again, we'll probably lose again.

That was a disappointing effort. I thought after Grayson's and 1 we were going to run away with it. I was wrong.

[Ian]

On an recent interview Duval said that the coaches are telling him to shoot. I except that they know better anyone on DBR. I am a humble person but on this one I know I am right.

"We didn’t get the ball to the right people and we have to learn from it" - K

I think it's obvious a Duvall 3PA was not what the offense was looking for at that point.

[jv001]

The crazy thing about that play is that it was a two shot foul and Carter committed the violation on the first shot. There is no reason on earth to do that. Make or miss, it's a dead ball and Trent gets another shot. In this OAD era we've grown accustomed to chalking a lot up to "freshman mistakes," but this season is just on a whole different level.

This from a young man that chose between Duke and Harvard. It just seems to me that Carter has a long way to go. He seems a step slow on defense and is having trouble picking up the Duke defense. He has shown that around the basket he can block shots. Freshmen, you never know what to expect from them. GoDuke!

[Furniture]

"We didn’t get the ball to the right people and we have to learn from it" - K

I think it's obvious a Duvall 3PA was not what the offense was looking for at that point.

I don’t think it’s obvious. For instance Bagley took just four shots in the second half, three of them from beyond the arc.

[UrinalCake]

Plays/events that stand out in my mind...

I will add to this list Grayson taking 3 or 4 threes on transition breakaways when he could have driven to the hoop, passed to a cutting teammate, or at the very least waited until he had rebounders in position.

[weezie]

Grayson...could have driven to the hoop, passed to a cutting teammate, or at the very least waited until he had rebounders in position.

Ok sure, but the whole "waiting" thing is what's at the heart of the young team adjustments thing.

Every respect to UCake absolutely.

It's still first semester, December. Lots of work ahead.

[Duke79UNLV77]

"We didn’t get the ball to the right people and we have to learn from it" - K

I think it's obvious a Duvall 3PA was not what the offense was looking for at that point.

Feed the beast(s)! We barely ever fed Bags or Carter down low in the second half. I also thought Bags was partly at fault for floating out to the perimeter a lot. The one time late in the game he got the ball in the midrange, he drove hard for the and one to put the game away (except they called the foul on him).

I want the other guys to be confident and assertive (except that late Duvall 3), but they have to realize that no one in college can handle Bags in the paint, not many can handle Carter, and we’ve got 2 more quality big men to wear people down.

[aaron100s]

On an recent interview Duval said that the coaches are telling him to shoot. I except that they know better anyone on DBR. I am a humble person but on this one I know I am right.

Not sure why the coaches would tell him to shoot. He was a bad 3 point shooter in HS and he's a bad one so far in college. I get that he could be working on his shot and he could get better ( I hope so) but that's not going to change in such a short period of time. Especially with this recent schedule not allowing a lot of time for practice or much else. Plus there is something to be said about time and place. Him taking a 3 early in the game or when we have a big lead is one thing but that situation was not the time or place for it.

[ipatent]

Not sure why the coaches would tell him to shoot. He was a bad 3 point shooter in HS and he's a bad one so far in college. I get that he could be working on his shot and he could get better ( I hope so) but that's not going to change in such a short period of time. Especially with this recent schedule not allowing a lot of time for practice or much else. Plus there is something to be said about time and place. Him taking a 3 early in the game or when we have a big lead is one thing but that situation was not the time or place for it.

He's hit a few and if he can be enough of a threat so they don't play off him it helps his ability to penetrate. I don't think the one near the end of the game was very well advised given time and situation, but he's on some kind of leash, probably two attempts per game, not jacking them up indiscriminately.

[sagegrouse]

Two observations (and I apologize for not having read the entire thread):

1. We quit feeding the inside in the second half. There seemed to be a change in the defense, but -- heck -- why didn't we work the ball inside?

2. We are never gonna play another conference game when we can't practice on the court the day before the game. You heard that Conte was unavailable because it was set up for a BC women's ice hockey match. Make a difference? Well, we shot 8-30 from three; 2-17 by everyone not named Gary; 1-9 by Grayson. Home boys BC shot 15-26, so there was nothing wrong with the rims. This is a ridiculous situation -- play on Sunday if need be.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'Yeah, I know, ESPN sets the schedule, but if K can get the NCAA to create a commission of his friends to decide on the future of college basketball, he can make sure that big-money ACC hoops get a practice day before conference games'

[duke4ever19]

Starting guards shot 1 for 13 from three. Allen 5 for 20. Hard to win making 2 point baskets when the other team makes a boat load. Really do not understand the criticisms of Bagley and Carter in this game

:confused:

I'm not sure how you managed to interpret my post -- which was a sincere congratulations to BC on their game plan against Bagley and Carter -- as a criticism of Bagley and Carter.

I kept my post focused on what BC did that was effective in minimizing the effectiveness of our dominant post players. I'll let others dissect what our coaches and post players could have done to counter what BC was doing. All I did was reference what I thought they did that lessened the impact of our two dominant post players.

As for trading twos for threes, I agree with you, but your argument is a bit of a strawman, because I never even addressed that topic, nor did I imply that BC's success today was solely because of defense against two of our players and not also due to hot shooting from the perimeter.

[Kfanarmy]

I didn't get to see this one. A shocker to me. There have been a lot of Duke team's I could understand taking 30 three-pointers. There is no way this team should be doing so.

[OldPhiKap]

I don’t get anything from those stats at all. But if the point is supposed to be that our results are somehow dependent on the color of our uniforms, I’m calling bull snip.

[Billy Dat]

http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/120219/coach-k-duke-learning-the-lessons-of-relying-on-youth

“It’s not just that he’s gone big,” said one NBA executive who has seen Duke play multiple times this season. “It’s that he’s got a bunch of kids that he’s not used to dealing with, guys that aren’t invested as much as usual. It’s a reality check for him.”

It’s amazing how losses change narratives.

[dyedwab]

http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/120219/coach-k-duke-learning-the-lessons-of-relying-on-youth

“It’s not just that he’s gone big,” said one NBA executive who has seen Duke play multiple times this season. “It’s that he’s got a bunch of kids that he’s not used to dealing with, guys that aren’t invested as much as usual. It’s a reality check for him.”

It’s amazing how losses change narratives.

This was a ridiculous piece from a normally good reporter. The idea that we are young and integrating a lot of one-and-dones is new and not something K has dealt with before? Really? Did we miss last year...or the year before...or the year before.

Had the argument been that this has been a continuing issue for Duke in the one-and-done era, particularly on the defensive end, well, that would have been a better piece....

[nmduke2001]

Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.

What is he supposed to do? Well, being a point guard he should get the team the best shot to win the game. This wasn't a possession in the first half; this was a possession with us up four with three minutes to go. If we score there, we likely win. Point guards need to know time and situation. The time and situation dictate that Bagley get a look in the post not an early three from a guy who struggles big time from three.

All in all, I think Duval is good, that play, however, was not a winning basketball play.

[gep]

Quote Originally Posted by AtlDuke72 View Post
Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.


What is he supposed to do? Well, being a point guard he should get the team the best shot to win the game. This wasn't a possession in the first half; this was a possession with us up four with three minutes to go. If we score there, we likely win. Point guards need to know time and situation. The time and situation dictate that Bagley get a look in the post not an early three from a guy who struggles big time from three.

All in all, I think Duval is good, that play, however, was not a winning basketball play.

Well... Coach K said post-game that Duke had a "good shot"... just didn't go in. Never once hinted that Duval shouldn't have taken that shot. Not sure what he says in private, but in public, he doesn't throw anyone under the bus. :cool:

[gofurman]

The bigger meta question is really can an all freshman one and done team ever win the ACC regular season. Duke hasn't won it since 2010 and an 0-1 start on the road losing to a team that will finish at best 11 or 12 in the league isn't a good omen. We gave up 89 points to BC. 89 points. Wow.

Don't mind the loss. Gonna happen. Hate it was in conference play as a road game that was winnable - ACC road will be tough most every time (would have rather lost to someone else I think so 1-0 in ACC)

[dukebluesincebirth]

What is he supposed to do? Well, being a point guard he should get the team the best shot to win the game. This wasn't a possession in the first half; this was a possession with us up four with three minutes to go. If we score there, we likely win. Point guards need to know time and situation. The time and situation dictate that Bagley get a look in the post not an early three from a guy who struggles big time from three.

All in all, I think Duval is good, that play, however, was not a winning basketball play.

Hard to get Bagley a touch in the post when he’s constantly hovering around the three point line.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Quote Originally Posted by AtlDuke72 View Post
Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.



Well... Coach K said post-game that Duke had a "good shot"... just didn't go in. Never once hinted that Duval shouldn't have taken that shot. Not sure what he says in private, but in public, he doesn't throw anyone under the bus. :cool:
Actually if you go back to the presser at about the 5:50 mark he talks about “critical junctures” and notes that they did not take a “horrible shot” at that moment but they also did not get the ball to the right people. He is very clearly talking about Duval’s shot when they were up four. He notes it as a learning moment and hopefully that’s what it becomes.

[SkyBrickey]

This from a young man that chose between Duke and Harvard. It just seems to me that Carter has a long way to go. He seems a step slow on defense and is having trouble picking up the Duke defense. He has shown that around the basket he can block shots. Freshmen, you never know what to expect from them. GoDuke!

Carter is 6'10", 260 lbs and is being asked to chase smaller guys around the perimeter with all the switching on screens. He's very agile for his size, and a very intelligent player - it's a big ask for a freshman big not named Marvin Bagley.

[Saratoga2]

Feed the beast(s)! We barely ever fed Bags or Carter down low in the second half. I also thought Bags was partly at fault for floating out to the perimeter a lot. The one time late in the game he got the ball in the midrange, he drove hard for the and one to put the game away (except they called the foul on him).

I want the other guys to be confident and assertive (except that late Duvall 3), but they have to realize that no one in college can handle Bags in the paint, not many can handle Carter, and we’ve got 2 more quality big men to wear people down.

BC featured 4 agile, experienced, quick guards who were also good 3 point shooters and one interior player. Clearly they were going to have the advantage on the perimeter and in penetration and we were going to have issues guarding them with our mix of 3 guards and two bigs. DeLaurier is the closest we come to a big who can guard a quick perimeter player and he did his best. Bagley is pretty agile but putting him out on the perimeter takes away from our rebounding.

They tended to pack their defense in against our two bigs knowing our outside shooting was weak. Our best counter was to use our size inside and we went away from that in the second half.

A potential counter we had were to use O'Connell more but coach K apparently saw in the two minutes he was given a weakness that kept him off the floor for the remainder of the game, even with some of our other guys tired. O'Connell has better quickness, is pretty long and is a scoring threat, especially when others are not hitting, so whatever coach K saw must have been pretty bad.

The BC game exposed the way to compete with our team and others with similar personnel will no doubt try to recreate the same scenario in games in future.

[jv001]

Quote Originally Posted by AtlDuke72 View Post
Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.



Well... Coach K said post-game that Duke had a "good shot"... just didn't go in. Never once hinted that Duval shouldn't have taken that shot. Not sure what he says in private, but in public, he doesn't throw anyone under the bus. :cool:

That's the difference in K and old roy. But if the game is on the line for a last second or close to last second shot, then our odds of winning go down on a Tre 3 pointer. Now if it's a drive to the bucket, then I like our chances. Work on your outside shot young man. GoDuke!

[jv001]

BC featured 4 agile, experienced, quick guards who were also good 3 point shooters and one interior player. Clearly they were going to have the advantage on the perimeter and in penetration and we were going to have issues guarding them with our mix of 3 guards and two bigs. DeLaurier is the closest we come to a big who can guard a quick perimeter player and he did his best. Bagley is pretty agile but putting him out on the perimeter takes away from our rebounding.

They tended to pack their defense in against our two bigs knowing our outside shooting was weak. Our best counter was to use our size inside and we went away from that in the second half.

A potential counter we had were to use O'Connell more but coach K apparently saw in the two minutes he was given a weakness that kept him off the floor for the remainder of the game, even with some of our other guys tired. O'Connell has better quickness, is pretty long and is a scoring threat, especially when others are not hitting, so whatever coach K saw must have been pretty bad.

The BC game exposed the way to compete with our team and others with similar personnel will no doubt try to recreate the same scenario in games in future.

YES! GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Carter is 6'10", 260 lbs and is being asked to chase smaller guys around the perimeter with all the switching on screens. He's very agile for his size, and a very intelligent player - it's a big ask for a freshman big not named Marvin Bagley.

Then what's the advantage of going big? We weren't feeding the post on offense, we got beat on the boards, and they used speed to get past our bigs?

At some point, you have to acknowledge that something isn't working and mix it up - even for five minutes.

[arnie]

Then what's the advantage of going big? We weren't feeding the post on offense, we got beat on the boards, and they used speed to get past our bigs?

At some point, you have to acknowledge that something isn't working and mix it up - even for five minutes.

Yea, and in one of K’s interviews he says we’re not very deep. I suspect he doesn’t think he can play any of the smaller reserves (O’Connell, Goldwire, Tucker) substantial minutes. If that continues, it’s gonna be nearly impossible to mix things up and if opposition goes small, Bolden’s minutes diminish.

Guess we’ll have to continually pound it inside on O and hope for the best on D.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The BC game exposed the way to compete with our team and others with similar personnel will no doubt try to recreate the same scenario in games in future.


YES! GoDuke!

I will happily play against any team that relies on the three to beat us. Most won't shoot lights out like BC did. And we likely won't shoot as badly as we did.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Carter is 6'10", 260 lbs and is being asked to chase smaller guys around the perimeter with all the switching on screens. He's very agile for his size, and a very intelligent player - it's a big ask for a freshman big not named Marvin Bagley.
And if we’re being honest, Bagley got worked over pretty well by BC’s guards yesterday. They continually stepped back and made jumpers over him and at times drove by him. He’s a beast but it’s asking too much of him (or Wendell) to guard talented perimeter guys all game long. BC exploited the heck out of our switching. They knew they were hot and just kept going back again and again to the high screen and even double high screen to get the matchups they wanted. And it worked because they were hitting everything.

[tteettimes]

Question to all of you

What team would BC NOT have beaten yesterday ??

[aGDevil2k]

The next two conference games are FSU without students around, and then at NC State.

It doesn't get easier. In fact those two games should be a lot harder than this one. Early on, FSU has probably been the most impressive ACC team.

[coot]

Lots of good comments here today. I don’t post very often but I do read often on this forum and follow the DBR podcast.

I agree with the posters that imply “this was coming”, we’ve almost lost a few already. Now, I do think that Coach K has the best game film to study and coach by with the BC game. Strengths are pretty clear on this team and the BC game has illuminated the weaknesses that have already been shown at times. Very good timing for a teacher like K.

This team will be ready to go later in the season. FSU will be a tough tough next test in conference. It’ll be fun to watch the team respond after a couple of weeks of corrections and further strengthening of what Duke is good at.

Coot

[arnie]

The next two conference games are FSU without students around, and then at NC State.

It doesn't get easier. In fact those two games should be a lot harder than this one. Early on, FSU has probably been the most impressive ACC team.

The team will feel pressure to play hard in these next two ACC games. An 0-3 start may result if they don’t.

[budwom]

Hard to get Bagley a touch in the post when he’s constantly hovering around the three point line.

yeah, not sure why the aversion to posting up Bagley and Carter more. We did have one play which worked out well, but was a bit odd: Carter missed a three pointer and Duval got the putback.
In general our bigs spent too much time around the arc yesterday, negating an obvious Duke advantage.

I did note that BC did a textbook job of boxing out most of the game...they generally had three guys under the hoop.

[whereinthehellami]

That was a bad loss. Allen is a senior, this is the kind of game that seniors with AA ambitions are supposed to win.
The defense is on Coach K, there is no way the defense should be this bad. The effort is there but effort won't get a square peg into a round hole. Coach K rightfully gets lauded for adjusting his offense to fit his players. The defense, not so much. This team is big and long but they aren't playing defense that way. I'm not saying that they will or can be a good defensive team but they should be good enough on that end to win games against teams with only two good players.

Duke really needs to move the ball around on offense and make sure everyone gets touches. The starting five is really talented on offense and when guys like Allen do the hero ball,heat check shot it kills the team's mojo (on the defensive end particularly). For everyone getting on Carter, I can't imagine what it is like to have his talent and ability and not get touches. Carter is a willing passer, let him.

While BC is not a good team they really played together yesterday with team buy-in and players playing their roles. Duke needs to solidify an identity and define roles quickly. If this loss helps facilitate these changes than maybe some good will have come from that stinker yesterday.

Tough loss for sure as I knew that Duke wouldn't go undefeated but this team has the capability to be so special and that took a big fat stinky ding yesterday. To echo other people's sentiments, as long as we stay healthy and continue to play together and get better, this is going to be an amazing ride:)

[House G]

Obviously, we ran into a very hot-shooting team. 85% of their points were scored by 3 guards. This is beginning to sound like a broken record. I don’t know the answer—maybe there isn’t one. BC ran the high ball screen/pick and roll all night and either the lane is left unguarded or a slow-to-react big man is guarding some stiff on the perimeter. On the other end, it appears we sometimes try the pick and roll when Allen is at the point but not for Duval. Perhaps this is because he’s such a poor outside shooter. If I were playing Duke, I’d do what BC did—pack the lane, let Duval and Bagley shoot all day from the perimeter. Here are our 3 point %:
Bagley 33%
Allen 43%
Trent 36%
Duval 15%
AOC. 53%
We just don’t seem to be playing to our strengths. Sure, the run and gun/up tempo/transition game is fun to watch and we will out score most teams on a given night. But the evidence appears to show that our margin for error against good teams is slim. Our offense needs to run through our bigs, and they are most effective when Duval and, to a lesser degree, Allen and Trent get into the paint. Teams just need to be given a full dose of this.
The great Bobby Hurley had an assist to turnover ratio as a freshman of 1.7. Currently Duval’s is 2.9. I’m not advocating we become Wisconsin. I just think we need to cherish our possessions and take advantage of our strengths—this may be easier said than done.

[duke2x]

This one hurts a lot more than losing @IN or to MSU. That was a statistical outlier for them, particularly since they just lost their best interior player in the past week. Congrats to BC for taking advantage of the opportunity. I don't think they could repeat it.

It hurts because BC is probably the easiest place to play in the ACC. As noted before, the crowd is typically 40% Duke and draws fans from NC to NYC. Note: I've been to all the ACC arenas + MD.

It hurts because this loss probably costs us #1 seed for the ACC tournament unless we win @Miami (my pick based on schedule and talent for the team that will really challenge Duke in the win column). You can forget the unexplained loss @NCSU this year. We won't be #1 in early January, and we really owe them a bit for the T-shirt win that happened for the first time since 1983. :)

Coach K will probably do nothing but practice pressure man and team communication on defense between now and FSU. He did something similar with Bilas when he was a freshman to start the season. Fix the defense and 16-2 in the ACC is a very realistic goal. This team still has flaws but the same growth potential we had in 2015.

[superdave]

I’m not advocating we become Wisconsin. I just think we need to cherish our possessions and take advantage of our strengths—this may be easier said than done.

Duke seemed to be pushing the tempo yesterday in order to get efficient buckets and speed BC up and into bad decisions. But it seemed to play out the other way around. BC took advantage of space, the open lane, long rebounds, etc to get some good looks at 3's.

I thought rotating through the junk defenses in the first half would have worked - 1-3-1, full court press/trap. But Coach K seems determined at this early point to have his guys stick to the game plan and learn the schemes rather than toss them out the door mid-game to get a W.

A slower game might have led to better pick and roll offense which could have freed Bagley up better. But we stuck to the up tempo game. It's December so no worries.

The guys will have to learn to be the aggressor. You cant let another team play that hard and dictate that much.

[Bluedog]

It hurts because this loss probably costs us #1 seed for the ACC tournament... Fix the defense and 16-2 in the ACC is a very realistic goal. This team still has flaws but the same growth potential we had in 2015.

And remember that that team was a #2 seed in the ACC tournament and lost to ND in the semifinals. (I agree with your premise though.)

[Rich]

It hurts because this loss probably costs us #1 seed for the ACC tournament unless we win @Miami (my pick based on schedule and talent for the team that will really challenge Duke in the win column).

A bit fatalistic, don't ya think? I much prefer 1-0 to 0-1, and it's an opponent we should beat, but to say that loss will cost us a #1 seed in the ACC Tournament is a bit of a stretch. It's a long season and most ACC teams can beat any other ACC team. I still like our chances given the talent, the coaching staff, and the # of games left to be played.

[dukelifer]

That was a bad loss. Allen is a senior, this is the kind of game that seniors with AA ambitions are supposed to win.
The defense is on Coach K, there is no way the defense should be this bad. The effort is there but effort won't get a square peg into a round hole. Coach K rightfully gets lauded for adjusting his offense to fit his players. The defense, not so much. This team is big and long but they aren't playing defense that way. I'm not saying that they will or can be a good defensive team but they should be good enough on that end to win games against teams with only two good players.

Duke really needs to move the ball around on offense and make sure everyone gets touches. The starting five is really talented on offense and when guys like Allen do the hero ball,heat check shot it kills the team's mojo (on the defensive end particularly). For everyone getting on Carter, I can't imagine what it is like to have his talent and ability and not get touches. Carter is a willing passer, let him.

While BC is not a good team they really played together yesterday with team buy-in and players playing their roles. Duke needs to solidify an identity and define roles quickly. If this loss helps facilitate these changes than maybe some good will have come from that stinker yesterday.

Tough loss for sure as I knew that Duke wouldn't go undefeated but this team has the capability to be so special and that took a big fat stinky ding yesterday. To echo other people's sentiments, as long as we stay healthy and continue to play together and get better, this is going to be an amazing ride:)
Why can't a defense played by one senior, six Freshman and two sophomores with limited experience be this bad? Defense requires positioning and communication. This is a rediculously young team. BC also hit a rediculous percentage from deep . They miss 3- they still hit 12 of 26 and Duke likely wins. Duke's D is this bad because they need to learn to play D as a team. It will come but also with a few losses. Yesterdays D was not great but better than in other games. A lot will have to go right for Duke to win a championship - but this is a team with talent - and it could come together at the end. In the meanwhile- expect the bumpy ride to continue.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Why can't a defense played by one senior, six Freshman and two sophomores with limited experience be this bad? Defense requires positioning and communication. This is a rediculously young team. BC also hit a rediculous percentage from deep . They miss 3- they still hit 12 of 26 and Duke likely wins. Duke's D is this bad because they need to learn to play D as a team. It will come but also with a few losses. Yesterdays D was not great but better than in other games. A lot will have to go right for Duke to win a championship - but this is a team with talent - and it could come together at the end. In the meanwhile- expect the bumpy ride to continue.

Kentucky is younger than Duke (and starts 5 fresh). They are 12 in Kenpom. This is on Coach K. He was consistently proven that he’s not good at creating simple, effective defensive schemes.

[Saratoga2]

Question to all of you

What team would BC NOT have beaten yesterday ??

Villanova

[tteettimes]

Villanova


What team (besides Villanova) would BC. NOT have beaten yesterday :)

[Troublemaker]

Carter is 6'10", 260 lbs and is being asked to chase smaller guys around the perimeter with all the switching on screens. He's very agile for his size, and a very intelligent player - it's a big ask for a freshman big not named Marvin Bagley.

We actually only switch 1 thru 4 most games. If Wendell switches, it's usually because of an emergency situation, not because it's purposeful.

What we actually do with Wendell is what this writer/coach calls an "aggressive drop" (https://medium.com/the-basketball-dictionary/drop-part-ii-76d41f7d87a9) and what I like to call a lateral show (as opposed to a hard show/hedge). It's awful and I've complained about it for a few years now. It's the single biggest weakness of Coach K's defense. If he just changes it to a regular straight dropback, Duke will have a top 15 defense. Or alternatively, he can have our 5s show hard all the time, and we'll have a top 40 defense. But the in-between "lateral show" stinks (at the college level). It gives us all the weaknesses of a hard show and none of the benefits.

I'll try to make an effort-post this week expanding on this point.



We just don’t seem to be playing to our strengths. Sure, the run and gun/up tempo/transition game is fun to watch and we will out score most teams on a given night. But the evidence appears to show that our margin for error against good teams is slim. Our offense needs to run through our bigs, and they are most effective when Duval and, to a lesser degree, Allen and Trent get into the paint. Teams just need to be given a full dose of this.
The great Bobby Hurley had an assist to turnover ratio as a freshman of 1.7. Currently Duval’s is 2.9. I’m not advocating we become Wisconsin. I just think we need to cherish our possessions and take advantage of our strengths—this may be easier said than done.

The high pace is important and has generated a lot of easy baskets for us this season, but I agree that our decision-making in transition yesterday was not good. Grayson pulled up for too many quick threes, for example. But generally, it's been good and our post players get early post position a lot when they run.

WRT Grayson, his shot selection has been killing me recently. He's over-using his pumpfake and passing up open catch-and-shoot threes. He's been choosing bad threes (pull-ups in transition) over great threes (catch-and-shoot), and it's driving me nuts.



I thought rotating through the junk defenses in the first half would have worked - 1-3-1, full court press/trap. But Coach K seems determined at this early point to have his guys stick to the game plan and learn the schemes rather than toss them out the door mid-game to get a W.

Duke switched to the 2-3 zone and it was ineffective. I know you're saying we should've thrown out even more defenses, but keep in mind, a team can confuse itself just as much as the opponent. We've got to work on our two defenses, and I'm okay with that.

[dukelifer]

Kentucky is younger than Duke (and starts 5 fresh). They are 12 in Kenpom. This is on Coach K. He was consistently proven that he’s not good at creating simple, effective defensive schemes. I suspect that if KY had played Duke's schedule they would have had a worse record- and I suspect folks would still be commenting on the D.

[DukieInBrasil]

i've been staying away from responding to this game, but, i just thought Duke played a thoroughly uninspired, mediocre game.
We didn't make a concerted effort to feed the ball to the post and score where we are most efficient. We got outrebounded by a MUCH smaller team, which indicates to me a lack of effort and/or lack of focus. There is no way that Carter, Bagley and DeLaurier shouldn't have been collecting nearly every rebound, yet time and time again some saller BC player would effectively calmly block out our out of position bigs.
Sadly, Grayson let the opponent and the refs get in his head. Since BC's guards were going off, he felt like he had to show who the best guard on the floor was, and it sure wasn't him, at least not last night. His flailing on his drives to draw attention to contact was not working, yet he insisted on doing the same thing over and over trying to get fouls called rather than trying to make the best basketball play.
Finally, Trevon Duval needs to have his license to shoot 3s revoked. That boneheaded 3pt shot (mentioned on the front page) absolutely dissolved Duke's mojo at the end of the game and opened up a huge opportunity for BC, adn they took advantage, bigly.
All in all, it looks like the way to attack Duke effectively is to go small. Our perimeter defense is suspect at best especially if they can go with a smaller, quicker shooter vs our "4". Still, our offense was good enough to win most games, just that our defense didn't show up.

[arnie]

What team (besides Villanova) would BC. NOT have beaten yesterday :)
Arizona State - a better version of BC.

[DukieInBrasil]

Arizona State - a better version of BC.

which just beat #2 Kansas...

[Saratoga2]

which just beat #2 Kansas...

It looked like a carbon copy of the Duke/BC game. Kansas State is small and quick and shot the 3 well and also blew by the Kansas players to score at will. Kansas was much larger and also talented. Perhaps one difference is that Kansas had better outside shooting than Duke, but still Kansas State, well coached by Bobby Hurley, just took the Kasas defense apart. The little quick guys know how to attack bigger teams.

[arnie]

It looked like a carbon copy of the Duke/BC game. Kansas State is small and quick and shot the 3 well and also blew by the Kansas players to score at will. Kansas was much larger and also talented. Perhaps one difference is that Kansas had better outside shooting than Duke, but still Kansas State, well coached by Bobby Hurley, just took the Kasas defense apart. The little quick guys know how to attack bigger teams.

I think you meant Arizona State. I’ll get yelled at for this, but though Bill Walton was great: he actually remembered Hurley beating Kansas in 1991.

[Stray Gator]

I ordinarily refrain from commenting in post-game threads, but I'm seeing so much negativity and criticism being directed towards our players and coaches -- much of which I believe is unwarranted, or at least overwrought -- that I feel obliged to share my thoughts about the game.

I'm certainly disappointed about losing to BC, but I chalk this one up to an extraordinarily unfortunate combination of several factors, most of which I believe were beyond the control of our players and coaches.

First, we fell behind not because our players were performing poorly, but because BC's players were insanely lucky, both in shooting the ball and getting favorable bounces off the rim. Let's be honest, that first half, in which BC's team hit 73% of their three-point attempts, with each of their starters hitting at least one trey, was a miracle that they probably could not likely replicate even in practice once in a hundred tries. Nonetheless, Duke managed to claw its way back in the second half to reclaim the lead. With 3:11 left to play, Duke had a 4-point lead with possession and a timeout on the court.

At this point, given the effectiveness of BC's offense and the fact that everyone other than Trent was hitting only 2-16 from behind the arc, I expected that the coaches would probably instruct the players to take their time and work the ball inside for the high percentage play to get an easy basket or a foul, and to avoid taking perimeter jumpers unless someone has a wide-open look or the shot clock dropped under 6-8 seconds. Instead, what followed was a series of mishaps based on a couple of less-than-optimal decisions by our players and a couple of questionable but critical calls by the officials.

The first mishap was Duval's attempted three-pointer from the corner. Some are criticizing Duval for taking this shot; but it should be noted that he first passed the ball into Carter, who drew the double-team from the player guarding Duval and passed it back to Duval, who then was left wide open. In that situation, Duval ordinarily could not be faulted for taking the shot. BUT, when he received the ball back from Carter, Bagley was sliding into the lane towards the basket with only a much-smaller guard behind him, and no BC player in position to cut him off or double team him. So, while Duval's election to take the shot was not a bad decision, it would have been a better decision to pass the ball into Bagley. Then again, nobody's perfect, especially freshmen for whom the game hasn't yet slowed down.

After BC hit a trey to pull within 1, we came back down and with 18 seconds on the shot clock Grayson tried to feed a bounce pass to Bagley, who received the ball right in front of his defender, allowing a tie-up that resulted in the ball going back over to BC. The timing and positioning of the defender made the pass a somewhat awkward play; but I think it was more a case of good defense by BC than a bad decision by Grayson. In any event, BC missed its next shot, and we got the ball back with a 1-point lead.

On this possession, Duke ran some clock and Grayson made a good entry pass to Bagley, who went up and turned towards the hoop about 5-6 feet away -- but instead of shooting, he tried to pass the ball to Carter. The problem is that the pass was not high enough, and the defender tipped it, causing the ball to bounce around and go out of bounds off of Trent. Again, Bagley's choice to pass the ball to Carter cutting to the basket was not a bad decision; but a better decision might have been to take the shot (which has been a high percentage one for Bagley) when Carter was getting position under the rim for a putback if necessary.

BC buried another three-pointer from deep (a good 4 feet outside the arc), so we were trailing by 2 with possession. At the 1:02 mark, Grayson decided to drive across the lane while closely guarded and put up an off-balance runner from just inside the free-throw line. At the time, both Carter and Bagley had inside position against their defenders, so maybe Grayson thought that if his shot didn't fall, one of the bigs would be able to get the putback. Unfortunately, the ball bounced off the rim; and although Carter was able to get a finger on the rebound, it tipped straight up and his defender was able to go over him to tap it back to a teammate. Not really a bad decision by Grayson, but more of an unlucky bounce for Duke.

Here's where the officials started getting involved and, in my opinion, probably affected the outcome. (Although that foul call on Bagley's baseline drive just a little earlier was equally dubious and damaging.) With 36 seconds left, Bowman -- who should have already been on the bench with his fifth foul -- dribbled around the perimeter past Duval, who was sliding along with Bowman and, at most, slightly bumped him; not enough to affect Bowman's movement, and normally not enough to draw a foul call. In fact, it was the kind of chest-nudging defense that these officials had allowed both teams to play freely all day. But now the official whistled it. Bowman sinks both free throws, and now Duke has the ball trailing by four. Duval drives the length of the floor and makes a quick layup to cut the margin to 2 with 31 seconds remaining. Still plenty of time to get a stop and make a basket to tie or take the lead.

Then, with 17 seconds left, Duval briefly grabs Chapman's jersey as he's moving without the ball 30 feet from the basket. To sell the call, Chapman staggers for several steps across the floor towards the official, points to the official, and falls to the floor in a death scene not even worthy of a 1940s Hollywood western. The official calls a Flagrant 1 foul, which gives BC free throws and possession. A bogus call, that ultimately enabled BC to get 4 points at the free throw line and effectively snuffed out any real chance for Duke to recover, even with Trent hitting a trey with 7.7 seconds to cut the lead to 3.

So I don't think Duke played poorly. After all, 84 points should be enough to beat any opponent -- at least, one that's not having a lifetime-best performance shooting from long range and getting the benefit of some favorable officiating at critical points down the stretch. With perfect 20-20 hindsight, it's easy for fans to say that this shot or that pass was a "bad" decision; but expecting perfection from 18-21 year old players under pressure in a fast-paced game, particularly when it must seem that the crowd and the basketball gods and the officials were all in the opponent's corner, is simply foolish.

Yes, it's frustrating and painful to see our team lose under these circumstances. But it's happened before and will surely happen again. I urge everyone to acknowledge and applaud with pride the fact that our players and coaches never quit in this game, but fought hard to the end; and while they must have felt even more frustrated than us in those closing seconds, they conducted themselves with dignity and good sportsmanship. I also encourage those fans who are expressing dissatisfaction with what they deem to be less-than-flawless performances by our players and coaches to recalibrate their expectations. I believe this is still a special team, that is going to provide us a memorable season. Next play.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I suspect that if KY had played Duke's schedule they would have had a worse record- and I suspect folks would still be commenting on the D.

I’m not doubting that nor am I arguing that. Coach K’s offensive schemes and strategy has been outrageously good, especially this year.

We blame our historic bad defense on freshman and injuries. Maybe it’s time to face reality that our personnel and defensive strategy do not mesh.

I have zero issues with our players’ offensive production. Yes - Grayson takes a few questionable shots. Yes - Trevon is terrible from 3. Yes - we have two reliable FT shooters. To me, this is nitpicking. Our offense is sooooooo good. Our defense is ineffective and has been this way for the last 5 years, minus a key month in March 2015.

[Sixthman]

Duval took a wide open 3, with his feet squared up with 3 minutes left in the game. Unless Coach K does not want him to shoot that is what he is supposed to do. He shot 4 for ten. He is a freshman and I think he is playing well.

There are two different points here. I've got a lot of company on this thread believing that given Duval's three point shooting percentage, this was a bad shot for Duval to take early in the shot clock with a lead. My point goes more to the argument voiced from time to time that Duval brings something to the table as a point guard specifically. For this to be true, he has to know game time and situation better than anyone on the floor and be first concerned with creating opportunities for other people on the floor. Failing to do this doesn't make him a bad player or suggest that he cannot or has not done great things for the team, it just means he's not playing like a great college point guard and I would argue he's not playing like the point guard we need him to be. He's young, and these things can change. Also, it may not matter. He's obviously contributing more positives than negatives.

[Skydog]

For those asking why Duval is getting more criticism than Grayson it's because Grayson struggled but Duval pretty much snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. When we are up by 4 with 3 min left the clock is our friend. You could see BC's hopes deflating at that point and their players starting to think "damn, we were sooo close." It was a perfect time to move the ball around and use up the clock while trying to create our best possible shot - hopefully a layup, ally oop or a wide open shot by one of our best shooters. We use up clock and score and the game is pretty much over. So the absolutely worst possible option --other than a deliberate turnover-- was a poor outside shooter taking a quick 3. That gave them the ball right away -- and worse -- it gave them renewed hope.

[jv001]

For those asking why Duval is getting more criticism than Grayson it's because Grayson struggled but Duval pretty much snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. When we are up by 4 with 3 min left the clock is our friend. You could see BC's hopes deflating at that point and their players starting to think "damn, we were sooo close." It was a perfect time to move the ball around and use up the clock while trying to create our best possible shot - hopefully a layup, ally oop or a wide open shot by one of our best shooters. We use up clock and score and the game is pretty much over. So the absolutely worst possible option --other than a deliberate turnover-- was a poor outside shooter taking a quick 3. That gave them the ball right away -- and worse -- it gave them renewed hope.

See Stray Gator's post. He breaks down the game very well. On the play that almost everyone is questioning(Tre's missed 3) Marvin was coming open down the lane for a pass that could have made for a much easier shot. This is the type play that Trevon should be able to make with a little more experience. It just looks like he doesn't see the floor well enough at this point in his career(even if he does have a great assist to TO ratio). It's the play in big time pressure situations that he will be able to make as the season progresses. He's got the horses around him to really be good. GoDuke!

[22JumpShots]

Since the number 2 team lost, and we already beat the number 3 team, does Duke remain #1 in the polls after barely losing a tough road game?

[uh_no]

Since the number 2 team lost, and we already beat the number 3 team, does Duke remain #1 in the polls after barely losing a tough road game?

BC is a tough road game, now?

I know we claim the "every road game in the ACC is tough" mantra....but as other have said, BC is the easiest place to place in the ACC. The voters sure as heck won't see it as a "tough road game"....and there is aproximately 0 chance duke will be #1 next week.

There's also zero chance they deserve to be. getting somewhat lucky wins early, florida turns out not to be that good....IMO, outsiders see this as an team with a lot of talent that was overrated after, all things considered, a relatively poor loss.

You lose you drop. that's how the polls work, for better or worse.

MSU or Nova will be #1, and almost assuredly they'll both get votes.

[weezie]

Well, fine then. Who cares about #1? Geez-o-Pete folks, it's first semester exam period.

Peace on earth and good will towards this young, learning, imperfect team. Give Trevon a break.

Now, if anyone wants to give Jamie Luckey a drop kick in the behind, come by and pick me up for the ride.

[Kedsy]

There are two different points here. I've got a lot of company on this thread believing that given Duval's three point shooting percentage, this was a bad shot for Duval to take early in the shot clock with a lead. My point goes more to the argument voiced from time to time that Duval brings something to the table as a point guard specifically. For this to be true, he has to know game time and situation better than anyone on the floor and be first concerned with creating opportunities for other people on the floor. Failing to do this doesn't make him a bad player or suggest that he cannot or has not done great things for the team, it just means he's not playing like a great college point guard and I would argue he's not playing like the point guard we need him to be. He's young, and these things can change. Also, it may not matter. He's obviously contributing more positives than negatives.

I agree Trevon can't shoot three-pointers very well, and that perhaps he made an error in judgment in taking that late three against BC. But to question "the argument voiced from time to time that Duval brings something to the table as a point guard" seems pretty harsh to me.

Here are selected stats for the first 12 games of the best freshman PGs in Coach K's time at Duke:



Freshman PG Assists TOs steals 2-pt% APG TPG A/to
Trevon Duval 80 28 23 56.4% 6.67 2.33 2.86
Tyus Jones 66 18 22 54.3% 5.50 1.50 3.67
Greg Paulus 62 33 13 34.4% 5.17 2.75 1.88
Chris Duhon 63 24 24 53.6% 5.25 2.00 2.63
Jason Williams 67 55 28 41.6% 5.58 4.58 1.22
Will Avery 36 21 18 54.9% 3.00 1.75 1.71
Bobby Hurley 81 42 20 43.6% 6.75 3.50 1.93
Tommy Amaker 50 38 25 54.4% 4.17 3.17 1.32
Johnny Dawkins 59 47 10 53.8% 4.92 3.92 1.26


Taking three-pointers out of the equation (and I know that's arbitrary), you can make a pretty strong argument that Trevon Duval is playing better in his first 12 games than any freshman PG who has ever played for Coach K, and it's hard to argue anything other than top two.

Of course you can't take three-pointers totally out of the equation. How much does three point shooting matter for a PG? I'm not sure. But to my eyes, Trevon is clearly doing a lot more than merely "contributing more positives than negatives." He has been an amazing point guard, so far, for a freshman.

Freshmen sometimes make occasional errors in judgment. I say give the kid a break.

[Furniture]

I am going to stop reading this thread.

[Steven43]

I am going to stop reading this thread.
Why are you going to stop reading this thread and why did you announce said intention? I guess we won’t get a response since you won’t be reading this.

[22JumpShots]

BC is a tough road game, now?

I know we claim the "every road game in the ACC is tough" mantra...but as other have said, BC is the easiest place to place in the ACC. The voters sure as heck won't see it as a "tough road game"...and there is aproximately 0 chance duke will be #1 next week.

There's also zero chance they deserve to be. getting somewhat lucky wins early, florida turns out not to be that good...IMO, outsiders see this as an team with a lot of talent that was overrated after, all things considered, a relatively poor loss.



Uhh, yeah. Hostile crowd = check. Other team goes off doubling scoring % across the board = check. Their main players make tons of 3's = check. === Tough road game (In my opinion). Hell, they had a couple of massive ally-oop pass/dunks. Doesn't get much tougher than all of that. We're they not 60%+ from three?

No such thing as zero chance. #1 have lost in the past and because of other top 5 losses, remained in their spot. (Not saying it's about to happen...but it is indeed possible.)

I care (maybe "like to keep up with" is a better way of saying it) about #1 because it sets records. We are flirting with that John Wooden record of most consecutive weeks at a #1 spot (for Coach K). Obviously I know this doesn't matter but it is fun to see history being made when no one ever thought it would!

[sagegrouse]

Uhh, yeah. Hostile crowd = check. Other team goes off doubling scoring % across the board = check. Their main players make tons of 3's = check. === Tough road game (In my opinion). Hell, they had a couple of massive ally-oop pass/dunks. Doesn't get much tougher than all of that. We're they not 60%+ from three? Hostile crowd? Announcers said, "50-50," but BC sounded louder, perhaps closer to the court.


No such thing as zero chance. #1 have lost in the past and because of other top 5 losses, remained in their spot. (Not saying it's about to happen...but it is indeed possible.) The 1991-1992 Blue Devils were #1 from beginning to end, despite two losses at away games (Wake when Hurley was injured and UNC)


I care (maybe "like to keep up with" is a better way of saying it) about #1 because it sets records. We are flirting with that John Wooden record of most consecutive weeks at a #1 spot (for Coach K). Obviously I know this doesn't matter but it is fun to see history being made when no one ever thought it would!

Lots of things are right with the world when Duke is #1.

[UrinalCake]

No way are we going to stay ranked #1, and honestly right now the Michigan State win is looking like a complete outlier relative to the rest of our resume to date. The Florida and Texas wins are looking very unimpressive, Indiana isn’t a tournament team, and other than that we have a bunch of blowout wins over completely overmatched scrub teams.

Villanova should be #1, and Arizona State has a case as well after their win at Kansas.

[arnie]

Hostile crowd? Announcers said, "50-50," but BC sounded louder, perhaps closer to the court.

The 1991-1992 Blue Devils were #1 from beginning to end, despite two losses at away games (Wake when Hurley was injured and UNC)



Lots of things are right with the world when Duke is #1.

I’m hoping the loss and drop in polls makes us hungrier. I think the initial #1 ranking for a team with one player returning with sig minutes is absurd anyway. We need to remember that team D is critical to success.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hostile crowd? Announcers said, "50-50," but BC sounded louder, perhaps closer to the court.

50/50 sounds about right. Duke crowd wasn't loud at all. I think they were there for the novelty of the situation rather than supporting their team. Was kinda sad...

BC got insanely loud in the last minute of the game. That was the only time I thought, "Conte Forum is great". However, a buddy told me they have microphones near the student section to make them seem louder than they really are.

This was not a typical "away" game. It wasn't a Duke "home away from home" game either. It was a semi-neutral game with two mediocre fan bases in attendance (NOTE: Duke fans aren't mediocre. The ones in Conte Form were).

[Troublemaker]

No way are we going to stay ranked #1, and honestly right now the Michigan State win is looking like a complete outlier relative to the rest of our resume to date. The Florida and Texas wins are looking very unimpressive, Indiana isn’t a tournament team, and other than that we have a bunch of blowout wins over completely overmatched scrub teams.

Villanova should be #1, and Arizona State has a case as well after their win at Kansas.

Let's not get absurd about our resume. We would probably be a 1 seed if Selection Sunday were yesterday.

It stinks that we lost our first conference game and a winnable road game, and we definitely must improve (which would also be true if we had won the game), but I would put our resume up against anybody's.


50/50 sounds about right. Duke crowd wasn't loud at all. I think they were there for the novelty of the situation rather than supporting their team. Was kinda sad...

BC got insanely loud in the last minute of the game. That was the only time I thought, "Conte Forum is great". However, a buddy told me they have microphones near the student section to make them seem louder than they really are.

This was not a typical "away" game. It wasn't a Duke "home away from home" game either. It was a semi-neutral game with two mediocre fan bases in attendance (NOTE: Duke fans aren't mediocre. The ones in Conte Form were).

It was an away game. Homecourt advantage isn't all about crowd noise and imo, isn't even mostly about crowd noise. It's about lack of travel, sleeping in your own bed, a familiar routine, and playing on a court that you've practiced or played on many times. Crowd noise is a factor, too, but people tend to overlook the other advantages.

[CDu]

As frustrating as the defense was, it was equally frustrating to see so little creativity on offense. BC simply crowded the lane, and it seems like we gave up trying to get our bigs scoring looks inside. Our size and our talent inside is the one constant advantage we are going to have every game. We have to do a better job utilizing it. This was not a banner day for either of our PGs. Both the freshman and the senior stunk at it.

I wanted to talk briefly about the the play resulting in the flagrant foul late. [side note: I'm not sure if it should have been called a flagrant, but it was] What were we doing defensively in letting that much time run off the clock and not fouling? We were behind, and there were just 32 seconds left. We really couldn't just play defense and play for the last shot, because if they waited it out, shot at the last second, and hit the rim, the game is effectively over. We needed to force a turnover or foul quickly. And this was out of a timeout? How did we let that much time run off and then foul their best shooter anyway?

Our bigs are bad at defending on the perimeter. Very bad. Bagley seems to have bad timing/reactions, and Carter is just not agile/quick enough. We need to do a better job as a coaching staff and team at finding ways to NOT have our bigs end up switched onto guards at the 3pt line. The "switch all ball screens" only works if the opposition doesn't make a concerted effort to get the proper isos or if all of our defenders can defend all positions. I feel like we have this same conversation nearly every year.

But either way, our offense needs to be smarter and more creative at taking advantage of our advantage inside. Yes, we scored 84 points, but that was in a high-paced game (about 76-77 possessions) against a pretty bad defense. If our defense is going to continue to struggle, we will need our offense to carry the load. And the best way for our offense to carry the load on this team is to play through our bigs. Keep pounding it inside, let Carter and Bagley work. Allen and Duval can get theirs in transition, but in the halfcourt the ball needs to touch either Carter's or Bagley's hands in the post on virtually every possession.

It's a frustrating loss. BC isn't as awful as they have been in the past, but they are still in the bottom third of ACC teams. This was a game we needed to win. Now, we'll need to make up for it by winning a tough road game - either Miami or UNC, or both - to offset the loss in what should have been a win.

[CDu]

Let's not get absurd about our resume. We would probably be a 1 seed if Selection Sunday were yesterday.

It stinks that we lost our first conference game and a winnable road game, and we definitely must improve (which would also be true if we had won the game), but I would put our resume up against anybody's.

We might be a 1 seed. Arizona State (unbeaten with neutral-site wins over Xavier, Kansas State, and a road win at Kansas) probably has the best resume. Villanova too (unbeaten with a win over Gonzaga). And while we beat Michigan State, they probably have a more impressive overall resume with wins over UNC and Notre Dame. Still, we'd probably be in the discussion for the third or fourth #1 seed, but I could see us falling to the 2 line if the committee voted today.

Thankfully it's a moot point, and we'll have lots of time to get better before the committee does decide.

[uh_no]

Let's not get absurd about our resume. We would probably be a 1 seed if Selection Sunday were yesterday.

It stinks that we lost our first conference game and a winnable road game, and we definitely must improve (which would also be true if we had won the game), but I would put our resume up against anybody's.
yep. duke still probably has one of the top couple resumes in the country. for better or worse, resumes are almost entirely win/loss...and duke looks pretty good in that regard.




It was an away game. Homecourt advantage isn't all about crowd noise and imo, isn't even mostly about crowd noise. It's about lack of travel, sleeping in your own bed, a familiar routine, and playing on a court that you've practiced or played on many times. Crowd noise is a factor, too, but people tend to overlook the other advantages.

I think people take exception that of all the road games we play, BC is "tough." Is it tough in that it's a road game? Yes. Is it somehow tough in the scale of all road games? Not a chance. BC exudes mediocrity in everything. Their team, their fans, their student section name (superfans?), the name of the building (forum? what is this? ancient rome?). Heck, even the building itself was an afterthought of the football stadium. I mean seriously...who designs a basketball stadium and decides the layout should be like http://graphics.fansonly.com/schools/bc/graphics/arena-wallpaper-1024x768.jpg

Oh right...that's because it was primarily designed for hockey.

BC was probably the easiest away game on our schedule when you take into account quality of opponent and difficulty of playing there. Calling it "tough" doesn't do justice to actually difficult places to play.

[Troublemaker]

yep. duke still probably has one of the top couple resumes in the country. for better or worse, resumes are almost entirely win/loss...and duke looks pretty good in that regard.

True, but it should still be noted that the highly-quoted system that entirely uses efficiency and doesn't care about wins and losses still has us #5 in the country, which is also 1-seed-ish.

It's just that hopefully as the season progresses, we see more balance between O-Rank and D-Rank in that system.



I think people take exception that of all the road games we play, BC is "tough." Is it tough in that it's a road game? Yes. Is it somehow tough in the scale of all road games? Not a chance. BC exudes mediocrity in everything. Their team, their fans, their student section name (superfans?), the name of the building (forum? what is this? ancient rome?). Heck, even the building itself was an afterthought of the football stadium. I mean seriously...who designs a basketball stadium and decides the layout should be like http://graphics.fansonly.com/schools/bc/graphics/arena-wallpaper-1024x768.jpg

Oh right...that's because it was primarily designed for hockey.

BC was probably the easiest away game on our schedule when you take into account quality of opponent and difficulty of playing there. Calling it "tough" doesn't do justice to actually difficult places to play.

Yeah but I never called playing at BC "tough" myself. I just object to calling it semi-neutral because the vast majority of the factors that make up homecourt advantage were still present.

As for BC being the easiest away game... pretty sure it's Pitt this season. But we still should've played better and won at BC.

[sagegrouse]

True, but it should still be noted that the highly-quoted system that entirely uses efficiency and doesn't care about wins and losses still has us #5 in the country, which is also 1-seed-ish.

It's just that hopefully as the season progresses, we see more balance between O-Rank and D-Rank in that system.



Yeah but I never called playing at BC "tough" myself. I just object to calling it semi-neutral because the vast majority of the factors that make up homecourt advantage were still present.

As for BC being the easiest away game... pretty sure it's Pitt this season. But we still should've played better and won at BC.

I remind everyone (again) that we didn't get to practice at Conte Forum on Friday because it was set up for ice hockey. Therefore, we prevailed on Harvard and Tommy to let us practice there.

This ain't just an "away game" -- it was a frozen, alien world.

[flyingdutchdevil]

As frustrating as the defense was, it was equally frustrating to see so little creativity on offense. BC simply crowded the lane, and it seems like we gave up trying to get our bigs scoring looks inside. Our size and our talent inside is the one constant advantage we are going to have every game. We have to do a better job utilizing it. This was not a banner day for either of our PGs. Both the freshman and the senior stunk at it.

I wanted to talk briefly about the the play resulting in the flagrant foul late. [side note: I'm not sure if it should have been called a flagrant, but it was] What were we doing defensively in letting that much time run off the clock and not fouling? We were behind, and there were just 32 seconds left. We really couldn't just play defense and play for the last shot, because if they waited it out, shot at the last second, and hit the rim, the game is effectively over. We needed to force a turnover or foul quickly. And this was out of a timeout? How did we let that much time run off and then foul their best shooter anyway?

Our bigs are bad at defending on the perimeter. Very bad. Bagley seems to have bad timing/reactions, and Carter is just not agile/quick enough. We need to do a better job as a coaching staff and team at finding ways to NOT have our bigs end up switched onto guards at the 3pt line. The "switch all ball screens" only works if the opposition doesn't make a concerted effort to get the proper isos or if all of our defenders can defend all positions. I feel like we have this same conversation nearly every year.

But either way, our offense needs to be smarter and more creative at taking advantage of our advantage inside. Yes, we scored 84 points, but that was in a high-paced game (about 76-77 possessions) against a pretty bad defense. If our defense is going to continue to struggle, we will need our offense to carry the load. And the best way for our offense to carry the load on this team is to play through our bigs. Keep pounding it inside, let Carter and Bagley work. Allen and Duval can get theirs in transition, but in the halfcourt the ball needs to touch either Carter's or Bagley's hands in the post on virtually every possession.

It's a frustrating loss. BC isn't as awful as they have been in the past, but they are still in the bottom third of ACC teams. This was a game we needed to win. Now, we'll need to make up for it by winning a tough road game - either Miami or UNC, or both - to offset the loss in what should have been a win.

I understand the frustrations with our offense, but we actually increased in KenPom offensive efficiency. To me, having a bad day like this on offense will happen from time to time.

What shouldn't happen is our awful defensive effort and effectiveness. You hit the hammer on the head with our bigs defense. Our defense across our core 8 player is as follows:

Grayson Allen: Good instincts and understands positions. Not good M2M defender. He gets burned a lot. For a 4 year player, he's a very underwhelming defender.

Trevon Duval: I am Duval's biggest supporter here on DBR (on offense), but have been frustrated with his defensive effort. He's huge for a PG, quick for a PG, and long for a PG. But he gets burned way too much for someone with his skillset. I'm not sure if it's effort or the "Corey Maggette"-syndrome (have all the tools and tries on D but he's just so bad at it). I want to see Duval try a lot harder on D.

Gary Trent Jr: Our best defender who can stay on the floor. Stays in front of his man. Sometimes gets lost. Sometimes doesn't fully hustle. IMO, the ideal OAD defender. If everyone had the solid mix of effort and intelligence on defense that Gary has, we'd be a top 20 defensive team. The problem is that our best overall defender cannot be Gary Trent; I mean, he's good, but he's not a stopper.

Marvin Bagley: I'm a little surprised by his lack of defensive impact. He's quick enough to guard guards, but he gets burned all the time. And when the defender passes him, Bagley often cannot recover. If I'm the opposing team, I run pick-and-rolls until I get Bagley on a quick guard. BC did a lot of that on Saturday.

Wendall Carter Jr: He's big and strong and...that's about it. Not a rim protector. Not great at M2M. Has a few blocks. His blocks per game decreasing after every game. I think Carter has the toughest job - given the leaks in our backcourt - but I think he needs to be smarter as a help defender. I know, I know...easier said than done.

Javin DeLaurier: Our best minute-by-minute defender, but not our best defender cus he loves to foul. He's averaging a foul every 6 minutes. That's nuts. He basically has one mode (ludicrous speed) and can't seem to turn it off. Great for defense, bad for fouling.

Marques Bolden: Huge. I mean, this guy is massive. Moves his feet well. Recovers really well from screens. Awful instincts. I think communication has a lot to do with this.

Alex O'Connell: The longest way to go on D. Not strong enough and doesn't read the D well. On one play, he left #25 to offer help in the paint. That led to #25 scoring a 3. I didn't understand the play at all.

[elvis14]

maybe we can accept that this team has some major things to work on, and winning close so far isn't just a matter of "guts?"

We win this game if we play with more guts.


Unbelievable stat - we took more 3s than BC today. Clearly we have better players but they have the better team.

This was our biggest mistake on offense. As others have pointed out, we didn't play inside-out today and that is our strength on offense.


I still don’t understand all the switching that we do. Our opponents all know they can get a switch any time they want, just set a simple screen 30 feet from the basket, have the guard dribble across it and now they’ve got Bagley or Carter guarding the point guard. Every single time, with zero effort they can get a mismatch. We make no attempt to fight through the screen, to recognize that the guard isn’t actually attacking the basket so we don’t need to switch, or to switch back when the balk gets reversed to the other side of the court and the two defenders could simply communicate and switch back. But I’ve been saying this for years.

What UrinalCake (note, don't eat the big white mint) describes here is what I've seen teams do for years now. Why do we often struggle in conference games like this? Simple, conference opponents know exactly how to beat our switch on every screen defense. Take a quick guard, have him come off a pick from a big, then slow down and spread the floor and attack with a guy like Carter or Bagley on a quick guard. It's all down hill from there.


Also, what happened to the aggressive trapping 3-2 zone we played against MSU for the entire game? That was so effective and played well to our strengths. In this game (and most games since then) when we went zone it was a lazy, sit back and stand there 2-3 zone that they could beat by simply overloading one side and having a shooter stand in the gap between two defenders. I’m not a coach by any stretch of the imagination, but these things seem like really simple issues to fix.

Another good post about defense from the master of bathroom deodorizers, UrinalCake. When the switching M2M defense isn't working, switch to something that might and stick with it for a few minutes.


The crazy thing about that play is that it was a two shot foul and Carter committed the violation on the first shot. There is no reason on earth to do that. Make or miss, it's a dead ball and Trent gets another shot. In this OAD era we've grown accustomed to chalking a lot up to "freshman mistakes," but this season is just on a whole different level.

I have a question: is that call really ever made on the front end of a 2 shot foul? I'm not saying Carter didn't violate, I just don't remember seeing it called on a made FT that's the first of 2. And, no, I was not happy with the officiating yesterday. I thought the offensive foul on Bagley and the F1 on Duval were just plain wrong and they called 2 fouls on Grayson where he poked the ball away cleanly. BC was playing great, they didn't need the help.


"We didn’t get the ball to the right people and we have to learn from it" - K

I think it's obvious a Duvall 3PA was not what the offense was looking for at that point.

That quote from K really says a lot. I know our defense was bad but we still win if we execute on the offensive end in the last 4 minutes. Lots of discussion about Duvall's 3 on here. Usually, I'm all for our guys taking open 3's, it's what the coaches tell them to do. I'd almost always argue that a shot like that is the right shot. But not this time. Duvall (who is a great player having a great season so far) is just SO VERY BAD at shooting 3's at this point that the usual rule of 'take the open 3 if you have it' just doesn't apply to this kid.


Carter is 6'10", 260 lbs and is being asked to chase smaller guys around the perimeter with all the switching on screens. He's very agile for his size, and a very intelligent player - it's a big ask for a freshman big not named Marvin Bagley.

First, if you read above where I replied to a similar comment from the effervescent UrinalCake you'll see that you're not alone in your assessment that having Carter guard smaller, quicker players after switches is a bad thing but I have to tell you, having Marvin do it isn't a good thing either. Javin, covering a guard I'm OK with. But with Bagley or Carter we need to hedge or ice the screens and not switch.

Here's my own take on the game. First of all, I had no problem with our halftime deficit. BC hit 11 first half 3's, they should have had a decent halftime lead. I thought we did a decent job coming back and taking a lead. Obviously I wish we would have finished. Basically, I think this is Grayson's team. He went 1-9 from 3 yesterday and as I believe it was Troublemaker pointed out, not all of those shots were good decisions. As Grayson goes, so goes this team. When we've made comebacks, it's been in large part because of Grayson's steadying influence and solid play. I would have liked to see Grayson attack on breaks instead of going for pull up 3's. If Grayson has a more normal game, we win. And, yes, I do appreciate his effort but the fact is that he couldn't shoot worth a darn Saturday. The last 4 minutes of the game yesterday just weren't played very well and I have no problem laying that on Grayson (just as i had not problem giving him credit for other comebacks above).

The other big things: we failed to play inside out, having Javin foul out hurt, there were some poorly timed bad calls, our defense struggled, I would have like have seen Alex get some more PT, BC had 2 guys go 10/11 from 3?.

I think solving a defense that always switches isn't that hard and BC did what they needed to do both strategically, and by hitting shots. As we have had young teams, every year we see and discuss that Coach K might need to make some additional adjustments (some have been made, already, see the MSU game). I think we've seen lots of defensive breakdowns this year and it'll take us some time to figure out what works for these guys (and for these guys to grow in to their roles).

I hate losing but there's no 'the sky is falling' from me today. We have a young team with some stuff to work on, especially on the defensive end (where the coaching may have some stuff to work on as well). The interesting part isn't the losses along the way it's how the team reacts to them and improves from them.

[uh_no]

True, but it should still be noted that the highly-quoted system that entirely uses efficiency and doesn't care about wins and losses still has us #5 in the country, which is also 1-seed-ish.

It's just that hopefully as the season progresses, we see more balance between O-Rank and D-Rank in that system.fingers crossed.




Yeah but I never called playing at BC "tough" myself. I just object to calling it semi-neutral because the vast majority of the factors that make up homecourt advantage were still present.

As for BC being the easiest away game... pretty sure it's Pitt this season. But we still should've played better and won at BC.

Pitt is definitely weaker, and the stadium does have SOME eccentricities...i mean...those floor level luxury box...things?

But it's a right arena, http://schooldesigns.com/Portals/0/SD_Images/Projects/112apostolourosser3.jpg and their fans are much stronger...which is why overall I gave them the nod over BC.

Those that were at the duke/Pitt game in MSG singler's freshman year will remember that their fan base is decently sized, travels well, and is loud. They had pretty much the entire upper bowl in MSG (level 5 in the old layout) and they let you know it. The pete is a tougher place to play.

[uh_no]

We win this game if we play with more guts.



I think we need to start handing out https://uproxx.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/guts.jpg?quality=100 to the player of the game :D

[elvis14]

I think we need to start handing out https://uproxx.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/guts.jpg?quality=100 to the player of the game :D

I'll just leave this right here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aYgAfgoVQo

[flyingdutchdevil]

I hate losing but there's no 'the sky is falling' from me today. We have a young team with some stuff to work on, especially on the defensive end (where the coaching may have some stuff to work on as well). The interesting part isn't the losses along the way it's how the team reacts to them and improves from them.

I absolutely think you're right. There is no "sky is falling". The coaches do need to work on defense.

But what makes me so frustrated is that you can guarantee two things every December: we'll be ahead of the curve big time on offense and we'll be so ineffective on defense. It's not like the narrative has changed in the last ~6 years. Every year is like this. I think it's amusing that we have two defensive schemes that we're working on when we can't even be average at one.

Coach K has talked about simplifying the defense. If that's the case and he's done it, it's still too complex for 4 talented, athletic freshman and 1 senior pre-season All American.

[sagegrouse]

I understand the frustrations with our offense, but we actually increased in KenPom offensive efficiency. To me, having a bad day like this on offense will happen from time to time.

What shouldn't happen is our awful defensive effort and effectiveness. You hit the hammer on the head with our bigs defense. Our defense across our core 8 player is as follows:

Grayson Allen: Good instincts and understands positions. Not good M2M defender. He gets burned a lot. For a 4 year player, he's a very underwhelming defender.

Trevon Duval: I am Duval's biggest supporter here on DBR (on offense), but have been frustrated with his defensive effort. He's huge for a PG, quick for a PG, and long for a PG. But he gets burned way too much for someone with his skillset. I'm not sure if it's effort or the "Corey Maggette"-syndrome (have all the tools and tries on D but he's just so bad at it). I want to see Duval try a lot harder on D.

Gary Trent Jr: Our best defender who can stay on the floor. Stays in front of his man. Sometimes gets lost. Sometimes doesn't fully hustle. IMO, the ideal OAD defender. If everyone had the solid mix of effort and intelligence on defense that Gary has, we'd be a top 20 defensive team. The problem is that our best overall defender cannot be Gary Trent; I mean, he's good, but he's not a stopper.

Marvin Bagley: I'm a little surprised by his lack of defensive impact. He's quick enough to guard guards, but he gets burned all the time. And when the defender passes him, Bagley often cannot recover. If I'm the opposing team, I run pick-and-rolls until I get Bagley on a quick guard. BC did a lot of that on Saturday.

Wendall Carter Jr: He's big and strong and...that's about it. Not a rim protector. Not great at M2M. Has a few blocks. His blocks per game decreasing after every game. I think Carter has the toughest job - given the leaks in our backcourt - but I think he needs to be smarter as a help defender. I know, I know...easier said than done.

Javin DeLaurier: Our best minute-by-minute defender, but not our best defender cus he loves to foul. He's averaging a foul every 6 minutes. That's nuts. He basically has one mode (ludicrous speed) and can't seem to turn it off. Great for defense, bad for fouling.

Marques Bolden: Huge. I mean, this guy is massive. Moves his feet well. Recovers really well from screens. Awful instincts. I think communication has a lot to do with this.

Alex O'Connell: The longest way to go on D. Not strong enough and doesn't read the D well. On one play, he left #25 to offer help in the paint. That led to #25 scoring a 3. I didn't understand the play at all.

I do agree with some of what you say, but Wendell is not a "rim protector?" You mean the guy with 23 blocks, more than twice as many as anyone else?

Also, you and I are watching different TVs is you think Grayson is underwhelming as a defender. He had five steals on Saturday and reads the opponents' offense and intentions quite well. I also think he does a good to very good job at staying with his man, although I see the rest of the defense let him down more than they should by being out of position or failing to switch.

(By the way, our last "underwhelming" defender, Mr. Kennard, seems to have become a solid NBA player in just 15-20 games and a valuable member of a surprising Pistons team.)

Bagley grabs the rebound and starts the break, which is really good defense in a way. I have a systemic worry that we will face four-guard offenses all season long, which will make our defense look pretty inadequate. We just need to score every time we get the ball, because four guards can't stop our offense. If this means we end up with a low KenPom rating on defense and a NC, then that is one for the good guys. And I really value Pomeroy and his commitment, but I don't see him as a minor deity in the basketball universe. He approaches the game from one point of view and does a solidly professional job..

[uh_no]

I absolutely think you're right. There is no "sky is falling". The coaches do need to work on defense.

But what makes me so frustrated is that you can guarantee two things every December: we'll be ahead of the curve big time on offense and we'll be so ineffective on defense. It's not like the narrative has changed in the last ~6 years. Every year is like this. I think it's amusing that we have two defensive schemes that we're working on when we can't even be mediocre at either.

Coach K has talked about simplifying the defense. If that's the case and he's done it, it's still too complex for 4 talented, athletic freshman and 1 senior pre-season All American.

What bothers me the most is that kentucky is recruiting the same caliber of player....their defensive rankings?

12
7
39
1
32
88
7
16


one bad clunker, but on the whole, far better than duke. that's 5 seasons of superb defense, a couple of pretty good, and one of thoroughly mediocre....

relative to duke
69
47
86
11
86
26
79
9

That's 2 seasons of superb defense, one pretty good, and 5 thoroughly mediocre


Coach K is doing something really wrong on defense the past 8 years....and so far this season doesn't seem to show that he's really figured it out. I laud him for trying new things, as he definitely is this year, but it doesn't seem to be working out just yet.

[elvis14]

I absolutely think you're right. There is no "sky is falling". The coaches do need to work on defense.

But what makes me so frustrated is that you can guarantee two things every December: we'll be ahead of the curve big time on offense and we'll be so ineffective on defense. It's not like the narrative has changed in the last ~6 years. Every year is like this. I think it's amusing that we have two defensive schemes that we're working on when we can't even be average at one.

Coach K has talked about simplifying the defense. If that's the case and he's done it, it's still too complex for 4 talented, athletic freshman and 1 senior pre-season All American.

I share your frustration (thus my remark that the coaching staff has some stuff to work on) and I'm quite sure we can leave this thread and search back for threads from years past and find the same things being said over and over. There simply has to be a better way to create a defensive scheme that these guys can master or at least master more quickly. This isnt' a knee jerk reaction to a loss, it's a well established issue. And I've seen lots of criticism of our defense before this loss as well. We are so good on offense that we are going to outscore a lot of teams but with this much talent, we are looking for a final four run and for that we need some D.

[CDu]

I absolutely think you're right. There is no "sky is falling". The coaches do need to work on defense.

But what makes me so frustrated is that you can guarantee two things every December: we'll be ahead of the curve big time on offense and we'll be so ineffective on defense. It's not like the narrative has changed in the last ~6 years. Every year is like this. I think it's amusing that we have two defensive schemes that we're working on when we can't even be average at one.

Coach K has talked about simplifying the defense. If that's the case and he's done it, it's still too complex for 4 talented, athletic freshman and 1 senior pre-season All American.

It really is amazing that Coach K hasn't figured out how to get good defense in the one-and-done era. It has been said before, but while Calipari is a sleazeball and doesn't really coach offense, one thing he does consistently is have excellent defensive teams. We're the opposite. Top-10 offense every year, but mediocre-to-awful (for a Power-5 school) on defense pretty much every year since we entered the one-and-done era. For a great coach like Coach K who historically prides himself on defense, it's really crazy that this happens every year.

Hopefully he gets it figured out enough. We don't need to be elite defensively to win it all, but we will need to be solid on that end.

[elvis14]

It really is amazing that Coach K hasn't figured out how to get good defense in the one-and-done era. It has been said before, but while Calipari is a sleazeball and doesn't really coach offense, one thing he does consistently is have excellent defensive teams. We're the opposite. Top-10 offense every year, but mediocre-to-awful (for a Power-5 school) on defense pretty much every year since we entered the one-and-done era. For a great coach like Coach K who historically prides himself on defense, it's really crazy that this happens every year.

Hopefully he gets it figured out enough. We don't need to be elite defensively to win it all, but we will need to be solid on that end.

I swear I should just wait for CDu to post before I type responses. He often says what I'm thinking...he always does a better job of it :-)

[sagegrouse]

What bothers me the most is that kentucky is recruiting the same caliber of player...their defensive rankings?

12
7
39
1
32
88
7
16


one bad clunker, but on the whole, far better than duke. that's 5 seasons of superb defense, a couple of pretty good, and one of thoroughly mediocre...

relative to duke
69
47
86
11
86
26
79
9

That's 2 seasons of superb defense, one pretty good, and 5 thoroughly mediocre


Coach K is doing something really wrong on defense the past 8 years...and so far this season doesn't seem to show that he's really figured it out. I laud him for trying new things, as he definitely is this year, but it doesn't seem to be working out just yet.

Mr. Uh-No: Is it possible that our offense more than offsets these measured inadequacies of our defense? It's a full-court game, and statistics can do peculiar things. As I posted above, a four guard offense by an opponent is likely to depress our defensive efficiency somewhat but be unable to guard our offense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I do agree with some of what you say, but Wendell is not a "rim protector?" You mean the guy with 23 blocks, more than twice as many as anyone else?

Also, you and I are watching different TVs is you think Grayson is underwhelming as a defender. He had five steals on Saturday and reads the opponents' offense and intentions quite well. I also think he does a good to very good job at staying with his man, although I see the rest of the defense let him down more than they should by being out of position or failing to switch.

(By the way, our last "underwhelming" defender, Mr. Kennard, seems to have become a solid NBA player in just 15-20 games and a valuable member of a surprising Pistons team.)

Bagley grabs the rebound and starts the break, which is really good defense in a way. I have a systemic worry that we will face four-guard offenses all season long, which will make our defense look pretty inadequate. We just need to score every time we get the ball, because four guards can't stop our offense. If this means we end up with a low KenPom rating on defense and a NC, then that is one for the good guys. And I really value Pomeroy and his commitment, but I don't see him as a minor deity in the basketball universe. He approaches the game from one point of view and does a solidly professional job..

Wendall averaged 2.6 blocks in his first 7 games. Last 5? 1.0 blocks. I don't consider 1 block a game to be a rim protector. Also, he doesn't rotate well at all, which is something you need as a good rim protector.

Allen has good positioning and solid M2M foot work, but he gets burned. A lot. On D. We must be watching different TVs. I agree a lot of this is the bigs not recovering, but Allen doesn't help by getting beaten a lot.

And as for your Kennard comment, the same can be said about Tatum. Both were seen as "sub par defenders" in college. Now? Kennard is okay and Tatum is partially praised for his D. You're kinda proving my point that these defenders just aren't very good at Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

What bothers me the most is that kentucky is recruiting the same caliber of player...their defensive rankings?

12
7
39
1
32
88
7
16


one bad clunker, but on the whole, far better than duke. that's 5 seasons of superb defense, a couple of pretty good, and one of thoroughly mediocre...

relative to duke
69
47
86
11
86
26
79
9

That's 2 seasons of superb defense, one pretty good, and 5 thoroughly mediocre


Coach K is doing something really wrong on defense the past 8 years...and so far this season doesn't seem to show that he's really figured it out. I laud him for trying new things, as he definitely is this year, but it doesn't seem to be working out just yet.

I've been making this point (or at least trying to) for the last 3 seasons. This isn't a youth issue. I don't think it's an injury issue.

To me, it's either a personnel issue or a coaching issue. For personnel, are we just getting players who are offensive geniuses but defensively challenged? You can point to Okafor, Kennard, Tatum, Bagley, etc. Or is this a coaching issue, where our coaching staff has no idea how to create a simple, functioning defensive scheme? My gut tells me it's 25% personnel/75% coaching. We should be better. We can be better.

[uh_no]

Mr. Uh-No: Is it possible that our offense more than offsets these measured inadequacies of our defense? It's a full-court game, and statistics can do peculiar things. As I posted above, a four guard offense by an opponent is likely to depress our defensive efficiency somewhat but be unable to guard our offense.

you would expect the same four guard offense to exploit UK's defense as well. There might be some small adjustment due to the ACC being stronger than the SEC in general, but KP's system SHOULD adjust for that. Either way, the difference is staggering enough to think it outweighs such a scheduling difference. UK's tournament performances have also provided strong defense that UK performs just fine against stronger competition that they would face in the ACC, with 4 final fours and an additional elite 8 in that span, vs duke's 1 final 4 and 1 elite 8. (and two really really bad first round losses)

While I think such things may vary from game to game, I think 8 years of data should enough to reject the null hypothesis.

[UrinalCake]

I wanted to talk briefly about the the play resulting in the flagrant foul late. [side note: I'm not sure if it should have been called a flagrant, but it was] What were we doing defensively in letting that much time run off the clock and not fouling? We were behind, and there were just 32 seconds left. We really couldn't just play defense and play for the last shot, because if they waited it out, shot at the last second, and hit the rim, the game is effectively over. We needed to force a turnover or foul quickly. And this was out of a timeout? How did we let that much time run off and then foul their best shooter anyway?

I thought our plan was to not foul immediately, but to first try to force a turnover in the back court. Once they got the ball past halfcourt, our goal was to get the ball out of Chapman’s hands (the guy shooting 96% from the line) and then foul anybody else. Which we actually succeeded in doing, except that Duval then made the terrible decision to grab Chapman’s jersey off the ball. We can argue about whether the flagrant call was correct, but it was indisputably a foul and a big time blunder when we could have fouled the ballhandler and had a much higher chance at a miss.

[Kedsy]

Wendall Carter Jr: He's big and strong and...that's about it. Not a rim protector.

It's worth noting that freshman Shelden Williams had only 16 blocks in his first 12 games (Wendell Carter has 23). I think Wendell is very much a "rim protector."

Is he senior Shelden? Of course not. But for a freshman I think Wendell is doing a fine job protecting the rim. It's worth noting that our opposing 2-point percentage is 45.9%, which is 86th best in the country (and is also better than our opposing 2-pt% in Shelden's senior year). So I don't think rim protection is our problem.

[Ian]

The only solution I see is abandoning the constant switching on screens. Go under on the screens and give up the 3 point shot, because the alternative is having one of our bigs guarding the perimeter guy who will either get a layup or draw a foul.

Yes we will give up more 3 attempts and on a bad night it might kill us. But it's less likely than the layups that are sure to pile up and it saves our bigs from foul trouble and allows them to continue to dominate on the boards and in the paint on offense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It's worth noting that freshman Shelden Williams had only 16 blocks in his first 12 games (Wendell Carter has 23). I think Wendell is very much a "rim protector."

Is he senior Shelden? Of course not. But for a freshman I think Wendell is doing a fine job protecting the rim. It's worth noting that our opposing 2-point percentage is 45.9%, which is 86th best in the country (and is also better than our opposing 2-pt% in Shelden's senior year). So I don't think rim protection is our problem.

Where is our 3pt defense ranked? I always thought Duke's historic defensive strategy was to sacrifice 2pt defense for great 3pt defense except for this year where we're trying to do the opposing. If that's the case, I'm not sure 86th best will cut it.

[uh_no]

The only solution I see is abandoning the constant switching on screens. Go under on the screens and give up the 3 point shot, because the alternative is having one of our bigs guarding the perimeter guy who will either get a layup or draw a foul.

Yes we will give up more 3 attempts and on a bad night it might kill us. But it's less likely than the layups that are sure to pile up and it saves our bigs from foul trouble and allows them to continue to dominate on the boards and in the paint on offense.

Given the % of points opponents score on us coming from the 3 is 74th worst in the country, seems like whatever we're doing isn't working. Might as well give up the 3's that the opponents are going to take anyway, and at least be strong inside.

[CDu]

Since the number 2 team lost, and we already beat the number 3 team, does Duke remain #1 in the polls after barely losing a tough road game?

Duke drops to #4 in the AP poll today.

[jv001]

The only solution I see is abandoning the constant switching on screens. Go under on the screens and give up the 3 point shot, because the alternative is having one of our bigs guarding the perimeter guy who will either get a layup or draw a foul.

Yes we will give up more 3 attempts and on a bad night it might kill us. But it's less likely than the layups that are sure to pile up and it saves our bigs from foul trouble and allows them to continue to dominate on the boards and in the paint on offense.

I vote for #1) 3-2 Zone, #2) Trapping out of our zones, #3) man2man with no switching, #4) man2man with run&jump trapping. In other words, make the guards give up the basketball and only switch in our man2man when we get a good matchup. Quit pampering these OADs and require good defense. I really thought that communication on D would not be a problem this season but I guess I was wrong. GoDuke!

[ncexnyc]

Let's see, we've progressed from talking thrash about our own players to stat crunching.

You folks need to slow things down as there's a big break before our next game and we still haven't gotten to the proposed line-up changes comments.

Really sad for a team with only one loss. I guess it's no surprise why the word entitled is used so often on this forum when talking about the fan base.

[jv001]

Let's see, we've progressed from talking thrash about our own players to stat crunching.

You folks need to slow things down as there's a big break before our next game and we still haven't gotten to the proposed line-up changes comments.

Really sad for a team with only one loss. I guess it's no surprise why the word entitled is used so often on this forum when talking about the fan base.

Normally I would agree with you, but to see this same lack luster defense played season after season is hard to take. I see that some respected posters have voiced displeasure with how bad the defense has been. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

I guess it's no surprise why the word entitled is used so often on this forum when talking about the fan base.

Given the amount that so many people on this board, including myself, do and have done to support the team and school over the years, I'd be wary of tossing around ad hominem arguments.

[BandAlum83]

I will happily play against any team that relies on the three to beat us. Most won't shoot lights out like BC did. And we likely won't shoot as badly as we did.

On the CBS basketball podcast, Gary Parrish has been talking about how this years pre-season Top 10 has seen an inordinate number losing to >#75 pomroy rated. Sunday night he delved deeper on the 4 now (including Duke) that this has happened to.

In all 4 games a combination of offensive over performance by the underdog with offensive underperformance by the favorite was seen in the game.

It seems pretty simple, but the fact is, it doesn't happen often. All of last year, a top 10 team lost to a >#75 only 3 times. All three were ACC games.

[Kedsy]

Where is our 3pt defense ranked? I always thought Duke's historic defensive strategy was to sacrifice 2pt defense for great 3pt defense except for this year where we're trying to do the opposing. If that's the case, I'm not sure 86th best will cut it.

Our opponents' 3-point shooting percentage is ranked 186th. What's crazy is the percentage of opposing shots that are coming from three-distance.

Here's a chart of Duke's opponents' three-point attempts as a percentage of total opponents' shots, since the three-point shot was adopted, from highest to lowest:



Year % threes
2018 0.380
2017 0.288
2015 0.278
2014 0.270
2013 0.269
2012 0.263
2011 0.260
2010 0.256
2009 0.254
2008 0.252
2007 0.251
2006 0.250
2005 0.250
2004 0.246
2003 0.246
2002 0.244
2001 0.243
2000 0.242
2016 0.241
2014 0.241
2012 0.241
2011 0.234
2010 0.231
2009 0.213
2008 0.209
2007 0.204
2006 0.199
2005 0.194
2004 0.182
2003 0.163
2002 0.154
2001 0.139


38% when the 2nd highest is less than 29%? Wow.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Our opponents' 3-point shooting percentage is ranked 186th. What's crazy is the percentage of opposing shots that are coming from three-distance.

Here's a chart of Duke's opponents' three-point attempts as a percentage of total opponents' shots, since the three-point shot was adopted, from highest to lowest:



Year % threes
2018 0.380
2017 0.288
2015 0.278
2014 0.270
2013 0.269
2012 0.263
2011 0.260
2010 0.256
2009 0.254
2008 0.252
2007 0.251
2006 0.250
2005 0.250
2004 0.246
2003 0.246
2002 0.244
2001 0.243
2000 0.242
2016 0.241
2014 0.241
2012 0.241
2011 0.234
2010 0.231
2009 0.213
2008 0.209
2007 0.204
2006 0.199
2005 0.194
2004 0.182
2003 0.163
2002 0.154
2001 0.139


38% when the 2nd highest is less than 29%? Wow.

Sounds like we're willing to give up 3pt shots for 2pts. I think that makes sense. However, when you're ranked 86th in 2pt defense given our strategy, I do think that's a problem. Our personnel should be better than 86th in the country, don't you?

[Billy Dat]

Our opponents' 3-point shooting percentage is ranked 186th. What's crazy is the percentage of opposing shots that are coming from three-distance.
38% when the 2nd highest is less than 29%? Wow.

That is really interesting. There have been a few times this year, as I have watched our unusually tall team try and cover small ball line-ups, that I wondered if we were unexpectedly out of step with the rest of the trends impacting basketball? As pace and space, 3 and D styles have proliferated all levels of basketball, Duke was certainly at the forefront of the small ball "live and die by the 3" movement - and many on this board have bemoaned that fact. This year, where we suddenly look like a traditional UNC team, we feel vulnerable to small ball. All that is to say I wonder if that huge jump in percentages that Kedsy identified is a sign that the rest of the country is just jacking a ton of 3s in line with the overall trend in hoops, or are teams deliberately playing that way against an unusually tall Duke team that is thin on the perimeter? Probably more the later, maybe a little of both.

[BandAlum83]

This one hurts a lot more than losing @IN or to MSU. That was a statistical outlier for them, particularly since they just lost their best interior player in the past week. Congrats to BC for taking advantage of the opportunity. I don't think they could repeat it.

It hurts because BC is probably the easiest place to play in the ACC. As noted before, the crowd is typically 40% Duke and draws fans from NC to NYC. Note: I've been to all the ACC arenas + MD.

It hurts because this loss probably costs us #1 seed for the ACC tournament unless we win @Miami (my pick based on schedule and talent for the team that will really challenge Duke in the win column). You can forget the unexplained loss @NCSU this year. We won't be #1 in early January, and we really owe them a bit for the T-shirt win that happened for the first time since 1983. :)

Coach K will probably do nothing but practice pressure man and team communication on defense between now and FSU. He did something similar with Bilas when he was a freshman to start the season. Fix the defense and 16-2 in the ACC is a very realistic goal. This team still has flaws but the same growth potential we had in 2015.

One game thus far...a little early for this statement, dontcha think?

[AtlDuke72]

I vote for #1) 3-2 Zone, #2) Quit pampering these OADs and require good defense.

Really? Where does this come from? Coach K has beesn accused of a lot of things but I have never heard this one before.

[El_Diablo]

O'Connell was in briefly but coach K must have seen something he didn't like as he wasn't back in but his shooting might have helped.


A potential counter we had were to use O'Connell more but coach K apparently saw in the two minutes he was given a weakness that kept him off the floor for the remainder of the game, even with some of our other guys tired. O'Connell has better quickness, is pretty long and is a scoring threat, especially when others are not hitting, so whatever coach K saw must have been pretty bad.

I think O'Connell was out of position and/or making some other mistake (letting a rebound bounce off his hand, knocking another rebound out of Javin's hands out of bounds) on every defensive possession in which he played.

[RPS]

One thing that can always be counted upon: a difficult, unexpected loss will get DBR denizens worked up. A few things to consider:

Practice time is limited. Time spent on defense is not spent on offense. The K/Cal disparities may reflect this reality and nothing more.

Fighting through screens has its own cost.
So does playing zone.

This team starts four freshman and plays five (within a very short, 8-man rotation).
They are approaching their first exam period.
They have travelled and played a lot.
Again, practice has been limited.

Stuff happens. Randomness always impacts outcomes more than we'd like (the better team loses far more frequently than we expect).
Relax people. We have beaten some excellent teams. We were not going undefeated. Nobody else is, either. This team will get better. But they won't be perfect.

Here's one more thing -- in a win-or-go-home NCAA Tournament, it's a mathematical reality that the best team usually won't win ('86 and '99 hurt, but I think we've come out ahead overall). In fact, the best team usually wins it all only about 15 percent of the time (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracket-voodoo-most-likely-teams-to-win-the-2017-ncaa-tournament/).

And I'm okay with that.

[jv001]

Really? Where does this come from? Coach K has beesn accused of a lot of things but I have never heard this one before.


Better stated, get the freshmen to buy into defense like they do on offense. Not accusing coach of anything. :cool:GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

1) Our defense. I've written a lot about this. I can't comment on it more. Something needs to change and fast. It's not just the BC game, but the BC game is clearly an indicator that our defense is enough of a liability.

2) It wasn't Duval's best game, but I thought he was pretty good. 10 points, 4-10 shooting, 3 assists, 2 turnovers...not a great game but not a bad game either. I think he is unfairly targeted for the 3pt shot. It was a decent shot. I mean, Trent was open on the other side but I can't fault Duval for shooting what looked like an open shot. His other critic - the F1 - was just stupid. I mean, really? But he's a freshman and we're expecting him to play like a senior. Duval is amazing. He just had an okay game with one bonehead play. This really reminds me of the Duke-NC State when Tatum got slaughtered on DBR. Not cool...

3) Allen is going a whole lot, even when he can't shoot. Allen took a lot of bad shots. That's fine. He's still learning to play with these 17 freshman we have. But I love his tenacity on other aspects of the game, especially passing. 6 assists? Nice. He had 5 steals? Wow.

4) Our offense isn't a concern but I kinda wish we put the ball on the floor/passed inside a little more. Sans Trent, Duke was 2-17 from 3. Duval and DeLaurier are horrendous 3pt shooters, Marvin is okay, Carter is an opportunists on that end, and only Allen and Trent are really sound. I'm still surprised we're not tailoring the offense. I get BC packed it in. I get they took away lanes and dared us to shoot. But we have to play to our strengths rather than adapt to what the defense gives us. We start 5 potential first round picks. 5!!!! That is nuts.

5) Please, for the love of God, choose either zone or M2M.

[uh_no]

One thing that can always be counted upon: a difficult, unexpected loss will get DBR denizens worked up. A few things to consider:
[LIST]
Practice time is limited. Time spent on defense is not spent on offense. The K/Cal disparities may reflect this reality and nothing more.

and yet calipari's teams haven't seen the massive degradation on offense that you would expect given the time you suggest they instead devote to defense. Their offense has largely been top notch as well.


Stuff happens. Randomness always impacts outcomes more than we'd like (the better team loses far more frequently than we expect).

6/7 years of consistent defensive uner-performance is not randomness.



Here's one more thing -- in a win-or-go-home NCAA Tournament, it's a mathematical reality that the best team usually won't win
nobody is expecting us to win every year. but we haven't performed well at all in the tournament. the one title is exceptional. nobody is arguing that. but we also have 2 awful awful first round losses, and have under-performed other top schools that recruit at our level....certainly UNC and UK, over the past 7-8 years.

[sagegrouse]

and yet calipari's teams haven't seen the massive degradation on offense that you would expect given the time you suggest they instead devote to defense. Their offense has largely been top notch as well.

6/7 years of consistent defensive uner-performance is not randomness.


nobody is expecting us to win every year. but we haven't performed well at all in the tournament. the one title is exceptional. nobody is arguing that. but we also have 2 awful awful first round losses, and have under-performed other top schools that recruit at our level...certainly UNC and UK, over the past 7-8 years.

Actually, you missed the worst thing -- there are ELEVEN days between the BC loss and the next game, and we will have to witness the "weeping and gnashing of teeth" of several of our brethren for every single day.

[ncexnyc]

Given the amount that so many people on this board, including myself, do and have done to support the team and school over the years, I'd be wary of tossing around ad hominem arguments.

I'm sorry, but all of this doesn't give you or anyone else the right to feel you are owed a particular result in a sporting event. Life doesn't work that way and you'd think a supposed grown-up would understand that.

[RPS]

and yet calipari's teams haven't seen the massive degradation on offense that you would expect given the time you suggest they instead devote to defense. Their offense has largely been top notch as well.Without digging through the data, I'm confident that Duke's offense has been better than UK's over the past 6-8 years. But I could be wrong.


6/7 years of consistent defensive uner-performance is not randomness.Math says you shouldn't be so sure of that. It may be indicative of a coaching or other problem, but it needn't be.


nobody is expecting us to win every year. but we haven't performed well at all in the tournament. the one title is exceptional. nobody is arguing that. but we also have 2 awful awful first round losses, and have under-performed other top schools that recruit at our level...certainly UNC and UK, over the past 7-8 years.In the world of statistics, 6-8 years are barely a blip, especially with only about 35 games per year. We have decent market data for roughly 100 years, with millions off data points every business day, yet 6-8 years of it tells us basically nothing.

In chess, there are 400 different possible positions after the opening two moves. There are 72,084 move combinations after each player has made two moves and over 288 billion scenarios after four moves each. The Shannon Number, which represents a conservative lower bound of the game-tree complexity of chess (the total possible move variations), is thought to be between 10^111 and 10^123. By comparison, there are 10^81 atoms that make up the known universe. I think we can all agree that basketball -- involving ten interconnected players with virtually unrestricted movement on the court, substitutes, active coaching, a crowd and a ball -- is far more complex than chess. So tell me again why you think we should be able to predict with any degree of certainty what will happen in any given hoops game or tournament or even over 6-8 years…?

[RPS]

I'm sorry, but all of this doesn't give you or anyone else the right to feel you are owed a particular result in a sporting event. Life doesn't work that way and you'd think a supposed grown-up would understand that.So why do I give to the university and Iron Dukes again?

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm sorry, but all of this doesn't give you or anyone else the right to feel you are owed a particular result in a sporting event. Life doesn't work that way and you'd think a supposed grown-up would understand that.

projection is strong with this one. an awful lot of insults being lobbed around in a Duke-friendly fan site.

[uh_no]

Without digging through the data, I'm confident that Duke's offense has been better than UK's over the past 6-8 years. But I could be wrong.

Math says you shouldn't be so sure of that. It may be indicative of a coaching or other problem, but it needn't be.

In the world of statistics, 6-8 years are barely a blip, especially with only about 35 games per year. We have decent market data for roughly 100 years, with millions off data points every business day, yet 6-8 years of it tells us basically nothing.

In chess, there are 400 different possible positions after the opening two moves. There are 72,084 move combinations after each player has made two moves and over 288 billion scenarios after four moves each. The Shannon Number, which represents a conservative lower bound of the game-tree complexity of chess (the total possible move variations), is thought to be between 10^111 and 10^123. By comparison, there are 10^81 atoms that make up the known universe. I think we can all agree that basketball -- involving ten interconnected players with virtually unrestricted movement on the court, substitutes, active coaching, a crowd and a ball -- is far more complex than chess. So tell me again why you think we should be able to predict with any degree of certainty what will happen in any given hoops game or tournament or even over 6-8 years…?

6-8 makes it sound smaller than it really is.... it's 240 games... somewhere North of 15,000 possessions.

15k individual data points yields a huge amount of statistical power. I'm sure the null hypothesis that uk isn't better on defense over that timespan could be rejected with a very large confidence.

[rsvman]

...

2) It wasn't Duval's best game, but I thought he was pretty good. 10 points, 4-10 shooting, 3 assists, 2 turnovers...not a great game but not a bad game either. I think he is unfairly targeted for the 3pt shot. It was a decent shot. I mean, Trent was open on the other side but I can't fault Duval for shooting what looked like an open shot. His other critic - the F1 - was just stupid. I mean, really? But he's a freshman and we're expecting him to play like a senior. Duval is amazing. He just had an okay game with one bonehead play. This really reminds me of the Duke-NC State when Tatum got slaughtered on DBR. Not cool...
I love Duval. I think he's been really, really good and I think he will get even better. Having said that, if you take away the sugarcoating, he made some huge mistakes in the waning minutes of the game on Saturday. It wasn't just the 3 early in the shot clock. His guy wide open on the backdoor for the alley-oop dunk. His guy making two threes in the last 2-ish minutes of the game. Flagrant-1 AWAY from the ball, on the third best free-throw shooter in Division 1. Add it all up and it was insurmountable.
Again, I love Duval. I think in the long run we will be extremely happy that he is on our team. That doesn't change the fact that down the stretch on Saturday he made MULTIPLE mistakes that cost the team dearly.


...5) Please, for the love of God, choose either zone or M2M.
I've addressed this before, but I think this would be a huge mistake, and I certainly hope the coaches don't take your advise.

[dukelifer]

and yet calipari's teams haven't seen the massive degradation on offense that you would expect given the time you suggest they instead devote to defense. Their offense has largely been top notch as well.

6/7 years of consistent defensive uner-performance is not randomness.


nobody is expecting us to win every year. but we haven't performed well at all in the tournament. the one title is exceptional. nobody is arguing that. but we also have 2 awful awful first round losses, and have under-performed other top schools that recruit at our level...certainly UNC and UK, over the past 7-8 years.

Usually the downside of underperforming in the tourney has been the losing recruiting battles in the following year. This has not happened for Duke but perhaps that is because UNC has been in limbo for a number of years or perhaps because UNC players have underperformed in getting drafted. We shall see what happens. Losing in round 1 or 4 is functionally no different if it does not impact the future. Duke remains a very relevant college basketball programs. At some point underperforming will have more consequences.

[RPS]

6-8 makes it sound smaller than it really is... it's 240 games... somewhere North of 15,000 possessions.

15k individual data points yields a huge amount of statistical power. I'm sure the null hypothesis that uk isn't better on defense over that timespan could be rejected with a very large confidence.The first round losses you alluded to were Lehigh (in 2012, as a #2 seed) and Mercer (in 2014, as a #3 seed). Very roughly, most models suggest that a #1-4 seed should win about 90-95 percent of the time (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dukes-lehigh-loss-was-bad-but-mercer-was-worser/). Obviously, that means that we should lose in the first round as a high seed about 5-10 percent of the time. Each individual loss is a big upset, of course, but that such upsets occur shouldn't be surprising in the least. By my quick count, we have been seeded #1-4 29 times (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/sports/apps/live-updating-mens-ncaa-basketball-bracket/schools/duke/) in the K era and lost twice in the opening round. That seems about right, despite a disproportionate number of #1 seedings among those 29 (even though, with a sample size of only 29 tournaments, the math wouldn't be invalidated if we had lost more or less than that). There is a shocking level of randomness (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-youll-fill-out-a-perfect-bracket/) in tournament outcomes. That's largely why March Madness is so much fun to watch. And because the losses were in the relatively immediate past, recency bias (https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/) ensures that we will tend to place excess significance on them, as you have.

[OldPhiKap]

I really don’t get the level of angst here.

1. What do you get when you play one senior and a large group of elite freshmen? Early in the season, you get stretches where they can beat anyone and stretches where they are a group of talented but not cohesive players who make mental errors. I’m thrilled we only have one loss, frankly; we could easily have at least three or maybe four. None of it matters before February.

2. Away conference game. Every year it seems some forget just how damn difficult that is. We get everyone’s best shot.

3. BC shot lights out and showed experienced poise down the stretch. We got beat by a whisker. Tip your cap, on to the next play.

Spoiler alert: this team will take a really nasty beating at some point. This ain’t it.

[NSDukeFan]

I really don’t get the level of angst here.

1. What do you get when you play one senior and a large group of elite freshmen? Early in the season, you get stretches where they can beat anyone and stretches where they are a group of talented but not cohesive players who make mental errors. I’m thrilled we only have one loss, frankly; we could easily have at least three or maybe four. None of it matters before February.

2. Away conference game. Every year it seems some forget just how damn difficult that is. We get everyone’s best shot.

3. BC shot lights out and showed experienced poise down the stretch. We got beat by a whisker. Tip your cap, on to the next play.

Spoiler alert: this team will take a really nasty beating at some point. This ain’t it.
Another spoiler alert: this team won’t play it’s best basketball in the next month as the guys have exams, visit their families and play fewer games. I don’t mind as that can happen at university. It may take awhile for the team to get back up to speed in January/ February, but hopefully the team figures things out over the next couple of months to be playing well and having improved when it matters most.

[ncexnyc]

So why do I give to the university and Iron Dukes again?
Because you're a good person and you love your alma mater, but then that's just my opinion.

[ncexnyc]

projection is strong with this one. an awful lot of insults being lobbed around in a Duke-friendly fan site.
And an awful lot on negative comments being directed at a one loss Duke team on a Duke-friendly fan site.

[Kedsy]

The first round losses you alluded to were Lehigh (in 2012, as a #2 seed) and Mercer (in 2014, as a #3 seed). Very roughly, most models suggest that a #1-4 seed should win about 90-95 percent of the time (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dukes-lehigh-loss-was-bad-but-mercer-was-worser/). Obviously, that means that we should lose in the first round as a high seed about 5-10 percent of the time. Each individual loss is a big upset, of course, but that such upsets occur shouldn't be surprising in the least. By my quick count, we have been seeded #1-4 29 times (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/sports/apps/live-updating-mens-ncaa-basketball-bracket/schools/duke/) in the K era and lost twice in the opening round. That seems about right, despite a disproportionate number of #1 seedings among those 29 (even though, with a sample size of only 29 tournaments, the math wouldn't be invalidated if we had lost more or less than that). There is a shocking level of randomness (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-youll-fill-out-a-perfect-bracket/) in tournament outcomes. That's largely why March Madness is so much fun to watch. And because the losses were in the relatively immediate past, recency bias (https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/) ensures that we will tend to place excess significance on them, as you have.

Your 90% to 95% might be true if you average all #1 to #4 seeds, but I think you're overgrouping.

Since the tournament went to 64 teams, here's first round success for the top 4 seeds:

#1: 100%
#2: 94%
#3: 84%
#4: 80%

There's a big difference between #1 and #4 seeds' chances of winning their first round game.

If you look at expected results based on, e.g., Pomeroy, the numbers are a little lower. I used Pomeroy's model to predict the expected chance of victory of top 4 seeds from 2009 to 2014. Assuming those years were fairly representative, here are the numbers:

#1: 96%
#2: 91%
#3: 81%
#4: 79%

Still a big difference between #1 and #4.

Depending on how you look at it, the above may or may not strengthen your point. Two first round losses in 29 tries is actually a little better than you'd expect based on either of the above tables. BUT, I don't think you can just lump in our #1 seeds with our lower seeded teams. I'm not even sure it makes sense to lump #2's together with #3s and #4s, but we haven't been seeded in each position to have a big enough sample, so we don't have that much of a choice. But definitely not #1s. By my count we were a #1 seed 13 of the 29 times we had a #1 to #4 seed in the 64-team era, and #1 seeds have never lost (and even if you think a #1 would have a 96% chance instead of a 100% chance, there's only a half percent chance of losing one in 13 tries). If you take away our #1 seedings and look at it like we lost twice in 16 tries (when we were #2 to #4 seeds), that's 12.5%, and somewhat higher than you'd expect.

Still, 12.5% is about the same as your chance of rolling an 8 with two six-sided dice (13.9%) and not too many people would be surprised if you rolled a pair of dice and it came up with an 8. In other words, it's debatable how much we've "underperformed" in the NCAA tournament.

It's less debatable that our defense has been worse than you'd expect for a top 10 team over the past 6+ seasons.

[uh_no]

The first round losses you alluded to were Lehigh (in 2012, as a #2 seed) and Mercer (in 2014, as a #3 seed). Very roughly, most models suggest that a #1-4 seed should win about 90-95 percent of the time (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dukes-lehigh-loss-was-bad-but-mercer-was-worser/). Obviously, that means that we should lose in the first round as a high seed about 5-10 percent of the time. Each individual loss is a big upset, of course, but that such upsets occur shouldn't be surprising in the least. By my quick count, we have been seeded #1-4 29 times (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/sports/apps/live-updating-mens-ncaa-basketball-bracket/schools/duke/) in the K era and lost twice in the opening round. That seems about right, despite a disproportionate number of #1 seedings among those 29 (even though, with a sample size of only 29 tournaments, the math wouldn't be invalidated if we had lost more or less than that). There is a shocking level of randomness (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-youll-fill-out-a-perfect-bracket/) in tournament outcomes. That's largely why March Madness is so much fun to watch. And because the losses were in the relatively immediate past, recency bias (https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/) ensures that we will tend to place excess significance on them, as you have.

I don't think it's any one individual game. Duke has made a killing beating they people they are supposed to over the last 30 years, so to lose twice in a couple years in a way goes counter to observation is curious. Obviously there is no really good way to know whether this is due to variance, as you suspect, or due to a fundamental change in some underlying variable....we don't have enough data to have high confidence.

We do have enough data to suggest that defense has markedly decreased, and we can at least observe that the apparent change in performance in tournament games we should win is correlated with the decrease in defensive performance. It would take a lot more data points to prove causation there.

In any case, playing better defense improves your chances of winning those games, even if they are never really a sure thing.

It's not guaranteed that the globetrotters will beat the generals....but I sure as heck would rather be working to be the globetrotters than the generals.....and duke's defense has been on the generals side lately. (okay...an exaggeration....but you get the idea!)