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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 91, Indiana 81 Post-Game Thread



JBDuke
11-29-2017, 11:44 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

DangerDevil
11-29-2017, 11:45 PM
This team likes to win!

fuse
11-29-2017, 11:46 PM
This season has taught me for this team, it ain’t over til its over.

Heart, grit, toughness.

Impressive hard earned victory.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-29-2017, 11:46 PM
Our close out game is tight.

WHOneedsSOX
11-29-2017, 11:47 PM
Defense isn't good most of the game but they sure make stops when they need to.

Doria
11-29-2017, 11:49 PM
Contributions, big and small, from a number of different players. Still able to tighten down when they need to. Good game in a tough environment for our young team.

subzero02
11-29-2017, 11:50 PM
If we played defense at the beginning of games like we do at the end of games, we'd be undefeated and a unanimous #1 in the AP poll.

LasVegas
11-29-2017, 11:50 PM
Give me Bagley OR Carter over any other big guy in the country.

ipatent
11-29-2017, 11:50 PM
This team has a lot of heart. The Allen three was a dagger.

kcduke75
11-29-2017, 11:51 PM
Great finish. Hope the chat was civil.

91devil
11-29-2017, 11:51 PM
Marvin Bagley is winning the Marvin Bagley / Big 10 series.

snewman92
11-29-2017, 11:51 PM
Yes, the M2M defense needs work, but I'm glad that K kept going to it to give them practice in a tense game in a hostile atmosphere. With a team this young, you have to do what you can to speed up development.

I'm surprised our rebounding margin was only +2.

3 pt. shooting abysmal; we all await the blossoming of GT's shot.

But, again, poise. Lots of it. And tighter defense in the second half. And 6 TOs/0 turnovers. Bagley's consistent greatness.

wilson
11-29-2017, 11:52 PM
What a game. This team has serious, um, spheroids.
Thoughts:
-This was an impressive win in a tough environment, especially for a young team. After the ACC gauntlet, we’ll figure to be as battle-teated as anyone heading into March.
-I don’t see how there could be a better inside tandem in the country than Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. They’re amazingly physical, both very athletic, and versatile enough to cause all kinds of problems at both ends. Defense is a work in progress for both, but has moments. And it’s great to see such a strong rebounding presence (especially by Carter...he is truly gifted on the boards).
-Shooting remains a slight concern, but we made just enough to seal things. And after all, 91 points in hostile territory is nothing to sneeze at.
-Indiana is better than their early loss to Indiana State would suggest. That was a big-time atmosphere tonight, and beyond Michigan State, the B1G is no great shakes in my opinion. Indiana could jump up and grab a tourney bid.

chriso
11-29-2017, 11:54 PM
To quote one of my heroes; impressive. Most impressive. That is correct.

DukeDevil
11-29-2017, 11:55 PM
The team is young and has things to work on...but they handle adversity unlike any freshmen I've seen. They really know how to keep fighting!!!

CoachJ10
11-29-2017, 11:55 PM
Even if during the game, it isn’t easy to swallow, seeing Duke’s opponent always raise the level of their play makes for quite an honor. It makes every game feel that much more special.

Carter and Bags showing marked improvement from the free throw line is a great takeaway from the past few games.

ipatent
11-29-2017, 11:57 PM
Yes, the M2M defense needs work, but I'm glad that K kept going to it to give them practice in a tense game in a hostile atmosphere. With a team this young, you have to do what you can to speed up development.

Exactly, he was using it as a coaching clinic, willing to take a loss if that happened.

subzero02
11-29-2017, 11:57 PM
Yes, the M2M defense needs work, but I'm glad that K kept going to it to give them practice in a tense game in a hostile atmosphere. With a team this young, you have to do what you can to speed up development.

I'm surprised our rebounding margin was only +2.

3pt. shooting abysmal; we all await the blossoming of GT's shot.

But, again, poise. Lots of it. And tighter defense in the second half. And 6 TOs/0 turnovers. Bagley's consistent greatness.

I believe it will come around... he is 25 of 26 from the foul line on the year, if I'm not mistaken... good for a tad over 96%.

FerryFor50
11-29-2017, 11:58 PM
Defense is still a work in progress, but it seems to get stops when it needs stops.

Bolden gave some great minutes tonight. Solid defense on hedges, diving on the floor for loose balls, and giving Deron Davis some weight to try to push around.

Carter and Bagley were monsters on offense and on the glass. Both had double-doubles. If Carter can figure out how to avoid soft fouls, he'll be even better.

Allen regained his shooting touch, but would disappear in stretches. That's likely going to happen this season with so many offensive options.

Duval had a solid game; 15 points, 6 assists and no turnovers (though he came close a couple times to coughing it up, and you could make an argument that his fast break awkward shot was a turnover).

If Gary Trent can find his shooting stroke, Duke will be even tougher to beat. He's shooting an insane 97% from the FT line, but only 29% from 3 this season. But goodness, does he find points and big plays at the end of games.

Offense was great. Defense.... still a work in progress. IU is not a very good team and put up 81 points - and that's with a bad night at the FT line. IU shot 51% from the field, which was a bit over their heads. Hopefully the man defense gets better or K commits to playing more zone.

While I'd like to see Duke blow away teams like this year's IU team, a win is a win! Now, on to the easy stretch of the schedule...

duke4ever19
11-29-2017, 11:59 PM
I'm happy when I see the 2-3 zone.

Let's keep me happy.

Native
11-30-2017, 12:00 AM
Bolden gave some great minutes tonight. Solid defense on hedges, diving on the floor for loose balls, and giving Deron Davis some weight to try to push around.

This. I feel like Bolden's flying under the radar this season —I'm a real wanker for saying this.understandable given the Bagley and Carter Show —I'm a real wanker for saying this.but I think he's made a very noticeable improvement over last season, particularly on defense. He's far more active and gets caught out of position less. I'll be interested to see what share of minutes he gets going forward — he had a few key defensive plays tonight, including that clutch steal.

NYBri
11-30-2017, 12:00 AM
Don’t know if the heart can take a season of these games. :cool:

TNTDevil
11-30-2017, 12:01 AM
Yes, the M2M defense needs work, but I'm glad that K kept going to it to give them practice in a tense game in a hostile atmosphere. With a team this young, you have to do what you can to speed up development.

I'm surprised our rebounding margin was only +2.

3 pt. shooting abysmal; we all await the blossoming of GT's shot.

But, again, poise. Lots of it. And tighter defense in the second half. And 6 TOs/0 turnovers. Bagley's consistent greatness.He's sooooo close. I've never seen a guy have so many shots rattle out from three. When they start falling...oh my! He's so silky smooth in other aspects of his game, it's just a matter or time.

Great, gutty win.

jipops
11-30-2017, 12:01 AM
Weird that K didn't go zone at all in the 2nd half, or did I just miss it somewhere? And is it weird I think that's weird?

Indiana has a few good players but this is a pretty bad team. Still, it was very loseable being on their home floor and our travel schedule with such a young team. So in that respect this was a good win, despite IU being a subpar team whose best hope is the NIT.

It was good to see us get stops when it really mattered. Still, I'd like to see a little less of layup drills. And the fouls were just ridiculous.

weezie
11-30-2017, 12:01 AM
Our senior captain kept them together. Well done GA.

Troublemaker
11-30-2017, 12:02 AM
Very proud of this team, pulling out the win in one of the worst situations on our schedule. All the situational factors were in IU's favor, including extra prep, first road game, fatigue from PK80, etc... I laid it all out in the pregame thread... and we were able to overcome it all and win the stretch run of the game again. BTW, how many minutes into the game did it take the "easy win" predictors to realize this was going to be tough? Probably about a minute into it, right, haha? Seeing how jacked that crowd was?

Skydog
11-30-2017, 12:02 AM
It's not always pretty to watch but for a mostly freshman team we have impressive mental toughness and poise. Actually, should be no qualifier - for any team.

MaxAMillion
11-30-2017, 12:02 AM
Trent had a play in the 1st half (I think it was 37-33) where he missed a 3 pointer then was running across the court towards the IU bench before jogging back in defense. IU got a layup as a result. His shot is MIA...I would play O’Connell more minutes.

snewman92
11-30-2017, 12:02 AM
I believe it will come around... he is 25 of 26 from the foul line on the year, if I'm not mistaken... good for a tad over 96%.

. . .I realize my comment might have come across as ironic; not my intention. He's a scorer and there's no reason to believe his shot won't come alive.

ipatent
11-30-2017, 12:03 AM
Scoring over 90 while shooting 17.6% from three is impressive.

jipops
11-30-2017, 12:04 AM
This. I feel like Bolden's flying under the radar this season —I'm a real wanker for saying this.understandable given the Bagley and Carter Show —I'm a real wanker for saying this.but I think he's made a very noticeable improvement over last season, particularly on defense. He's far more active and gets caught out of position less. I'll be interested to see what share of minutes he gets going forward — he had a few key defensive plays tonight, including that clutch steal.

Good point. Bolden had some huge exchanges on defense.

JD for Three!
11-30-2017, 12:07 AM
Someone earlier mentioned poise. I like that even when these guys make a spectacular play, no one is woofing or posing or flexing or...
That’s the GOAT to a legal extent, but I think it also shows the quality and character of the young men. I hope they keep it up.

jipops
11-30-2017, 12:10 AM
D just dropped 10 points on kenpom. Ouch.

Coballs
11-30-2017, 12:12 AM
Someone earlier mentioned poise. I like that even when these guys make a spectacular play, no one is woofing or posing or flexing or...
That’s the GOAT to a legal extent, but I think it also shows the quality and character of the young men. I hope they keep it up.

Poise counts!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMJnWrKQeqY

flyingdutchdevil
11-30-2017, 12:12 AM
Trent had a play in the 1st half (I think it was 37-33) where he missed a 3 pointer then was running across the court towards the IU bench before jogging back in defense. IU got a layup as a result. His shot is MIA...I would play O’Connell more minutes.

Yeah....no. Trent was good. He’s smart and doesn’t take plays off.

Selover
11-30-2017, 12:12 AM
Someone earlier mentioned poise. I like that even when these guys make a spectacular play, no one is woofing or posing or flexing or...
That’s the GOAT to a legal extent, but I think it also shows the quality and character of the young men. I hope they keep it up.

I think there is good reason Wendell doesn't flex... He'd have to come out of the game due to a ripped jersey.

Troublemaker
11-30-2017, 12:13 AM
This. I feel like Bolden's flying under the radar this season

In the postgame radio, Coach K said Marques' steal and dive on the floor was the biggest play of the game and energized the team for the stretch run.


Trent had a play in the 1st half (I think it was 37-33) where he missed a 3 pointer then was running across the court towards the IU bench before jogging back in defense. IU got a layup as a result. His shot is MIA...I would play O’Connell more minutes.

Gary's our best perimeter defender, savvy, and tough. He'll get all the minutes he can handle. Just hope his shot comes around.

FerryFor50
11-30-2017, 12:16 AM
Yeah...no. Trent was good. He’s smart and doesn’t take plays off.

He took that play off. He didn't chase the long rebound and then made a half-hearted attempt to stop the ball.

Faison1
11-30-2017, 12:19 AM
Color me impressed with this team so far. Their only weakness is they are young.

Absolutely everyone of the guys is a stud in their own way...GA's shot fakes, Trevon's ball handling, Trent's awesomeness, Carter's intensity, and Bagley's otherworldly ability...Nate James has really rubbed off on them.

DukieInBrasil
11-30-2017, 12:23 AM
What a game. This team has serious, um, spheroids.
Thoughts:
-This was an impressive win in a tough environment, especially for a young team. After the ACC gauntlet, we’ll figure to be as battle-teated as anyone heading into March.
-I don’t see how there could be a better inside tandem in the country than Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. They’re amazingly physical, both very athletic, and versatile enough to cause all kinds of problems at both ends. Defense is a work in progress for both, but has moments. And it’s great to see such a strong rebounding presence (especially by Carter...he is truly gifted on the boards).
-Shooting remains a slight concern, but we made just enough to seal things. And after all, 91 points in hostile territory is nothing to sneeze at.
-Indiana is better than their early loss to Indiana State would suggest. That was a big-time atmosphere tonight, and beyond Michigan State, the B1G is no great shakes in my opinion. Indiana could jump up and grab a tourney bid.

Not sure what a battle teat is, sounds kinda...naughty ;-)

NashvilleDevil
11-30-2017, 12:23 AM
Trent had a play in the 1st half (I think it was 37-33) where he missed a 3 pointer then was running across the court towards the IU bench before jogging back in defense. IU got a layup as a result. His shot is MIA...I would play O’Connell more minutes.

Yeah...not happening. He may have had that one play but he makes so many big plays at crucial times that it is impossible to sit him. He had a couple big steals, a nice and 1, made all his free throws, and got the offensive rebound that pretty much sealed the game.

Billy Dat
11-30-2017, 12:30 AM
IU played very well and Assembly was going H.A.M. To win is a big deal. Bagley and Carter really did lots of work tonight. Tricky was solid when we most needed him. Props to Trent and Marquese for shaking off poor starts to make big winning plays. Aside from Bolden’s Grayson-title-game-2015 dive on the floor, he was a real presence on D. Trent’s ability to hit FTs is huge. Lucky Davis is such a bad FY shooter. Grayson’s 2 shots down the stretch - the 3 and that crazy fadeaway were huge. The refs were spotty but we stayed cool. The D continues to be so inconsistent but it held when we needed it to down the stretch. Big time W, still undefeated, we have the POY front runner, huge talent at each position and K using a 3 man bench - smell the roses my friends.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 12:40 AM
Awesome win and great learning experience for the young guys. I love how these kids are stepping up to each new challenge and finding a way to win through adversity. They are getting noticeably better, and I'm looking forward to what tweaks the coaches can implement once they can get a few practices in. This team is awesome already and it still has MASSIVE room for improvement.

Bolden showed some things we hadn't seen from him until now, and looked decent out there in crunch time. He's come a long way from giving up wide open dunks in the Texas game.

This rotation is about what I would expect to see in close games. O'Connell seems to have locked down that first guard off the bench role, and has been just as poised as the starters. This freshmen class is unbelievable.

Bagley is unstoppable. Is there any question at this point that he will lead the team in scoring? I'm pretty sure just about everyone thought it would be Grayson. I loved that he was being very vocal out there on offense and demanding the ball in the post. He makes something good happen virtually every time he catches it down low.

Bagley is probably the best college freshman I've ever seen. It's early, but just by the eye test, he's almost hands down the best Duke freshman ever. Has anyone been better? This is basically on the same tier as Durant/Melo level production for a freshman, and he's been more efficient than either of those guys so far. Boogie/Anthony Davis were good, but didn't play minutes like this. Okafor, Jabari, Ingram, and even Tatum/Kyrie just did not have this type of impact on the game at both ends. What a player.

brlftz
11-30-2017, 12:44 AM
Color me impressed with this team so far. Their only weakness is they are young.

We're not a very good 3 point shooting team - and sometimes we're awful - and apparently our D only works when we finally use our action boosts we've been saving at the end. I suppose that's attributable to youth though.

bdbrown19
11-30-2017, 12:52 AM
Hi everyone. This is my first post on DBR tonight, although I've been lurking for a while. Awesome to see Bagley score a "quiet" 23. I think that when Trent finds his stroke we can be really dangerous. I'm so excited to see what this team can do..

duke4ever19
11-30-2017, 01:05 AM
Hi everyone. This is my first post on DBR tonight, although I've been lurking for a while. Awesome to see Bagley score a "quiet" 23. I think that when Trent finds his stroke we can be really dangerous. I'm so excited to see what this team can do..

Welcome! Hoping this is the first of many posts!

About Trent . . . agreed. I'll go easy on him, because he and the team looked gassed out there (I can't blame them), but I'm proud of how he never really mentally checked out. He made a few key free throws and buckled down with the team on D in crunch time.

I really like Trent's game. We will need his 3-point shot to really be a devastating offense.

dukefan_828
11-30-2017, 01:20 AM
Yes, the M2M defense needs work, but I'm glad that K kept going to it to give them practice in a tense game in a hostile atmosphere. With a team this young, you have to do what you can to speed up development.

I'm surprised our rebounding margin was only +2.

3 pt. shooting abysmal; we all await the blossoming of GT's shot.

But, again, poise. Lots of it. And tighter defense in the second half. And 6 TOs/0 turnovers. Bagley's consistent greatness.

Great points. I was also asking for K to stay in M2M forcing the youngsters to grind it out and learn from there mistakes win or lose in chat while many felt we should go zone, this will pay dividends in the long run.

It's good i hear things tend to like to blossom late march early April round these parts, but i'd also settle for first week'a December :cool::cool:

LETS GO DUKE, GUTS THIS TEAMS GOT "IT"

OZ
11-30-2017, 01:21 AM
The thing that impresses me the most about this group is how quickly they are coming together as a TEAM... a team that so far has been characterized by toughness and POISE during crunch time. And all of this is a credit to a man who on sits on the bench

dukefan_828
11-30-2017, 01:27 AM
Post game presser??

brevity
11-30-2017, 01:45 AM
Reviewing the box score. Robert Johnson led Indiana with 17 points and added 4 rebounds. To whom did he sell his soul (https://www.npr.org/2011/05/07/136063911/robert-johnson-at-100-still-dispelling-myths) to make that happen?

Skitzle
11-30-2017, 05:47 AM
Just wanted to point out in the PK80 at the end of the game K put in Javin as a Carter's defensive replacement when Carter got into foul trouble. Last night it was Bolden after he dove for the ball on that steal.

Bolden immediately proceeded to foul a İU player and got pulled for Javin the next substitution.

Bolden has a lot of potential just needs to show hustle and stop making silly plays

My guess is Javins minutes are Boldens for the taking.

Skitzle
11-30-2017, 05:57 AM
Post game presser??

I heart the presser search for it every game:

Link (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&_ga=2.199257582.1509036814.1512039336-1677792823.1512039336)

Skitzle
11-30-2017, 06:17 AM
I heart the presser search for it every game:

Link (http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&_ga=2.199257582.1509036814.1512039336-1677792823.1512039336)

K mentions how MB3 and WC2 are great at positioning themselves for rebounding. Got me thinking that Kevin Love is well known for this and K knows Klove and then I wanted to ask: Are there NCAA rules against bringing in outside (voluntary) coachs or NBA players to train with / teach team members?

Thanks for the knowledge bomb.

Saratoga2
11-30-2017, 06:28 AM
I like to put my observations in before reading the string so here goes.

Duke went into Indiana after winning the PK80 and had zero time to go over their learning experiences from those tournament games and was probably tired from the travel they faced. It was their first true road game going in before a hostile crowd and a highly motivated opponent. I believe Indiana was undersold on this site before the game as they had a good coach and several very nice players, including a very physical big man. We certainly were likely to repeat many of the transitional defensive mistakes and be hard pressed to guard the middle in man to man. In addition, we had no time to have the players learn to avoid taking bad shots and turing the ball over. What we did have is one of the best front courts in the college game (if not the best) and some excellent perimiter players who are just now learning to play together as a team. We have size, athleticism, skill and depth. Taken together it is a hard combination for other teams to deal with and again we won by seemingly wearing the other team down and seemed to play stronger defense at the end of the game than earlier.

Speicific points:

1. We have 3 players who can guard a capable and physical big man. (Carter, Bolden and Vrank) and we needed two of them last night since Carter fouled out. No team is going to be able to handle our depth in that regard.

2. We have two excellent perimeter foul shooters to put in for end of game stability. (Allen and Trent). If we just use our front court wisely and not fall into the poor shot selection and commit turnovers, we will be very hard to catch in the end of games. Carter is a good foul shooter as well and the others are improving.

3. While both O'Connell and DeLaurier played well last night they didn't get a lot of PT since our main need was for size inside. The point is that we do have depth and can adjust the in game playing time based on the specific needs of the night.

Another win and plenty of good learning experiences to review in the coming days. we can't expect this team to make a rapid improvement but can expect improvement every time out and we are starting from a very high threshold so our play is likely to surpass anything we have seen to date. This is a fun team to watch.

NashvilleDevil
11-30-2017, 06:35 AM
Reviewing the box score. Robert Johnson led Indiana with 17 points and added 4 rebounds. To whom did he sell his soul (https://www.npr.org/2011/05/07/136063911/robert-johnson-at-100-still-dispelling-myths) to make that happen?

“You must spread some comments around...”

mkirsh
11-30-2017, 06:38 AM
Great win!

I have come to expect Bagley, Carter, and Allen to play well every game, so I was most pleasantly surprised by Bolden. He came in during a high leverage situation (tight game, carter in foul trouble) and was fantastic on D - the dive for the loose ball, his hedging and recovering was perfect, he blocked shots and rebounded. Play like this can give us more comfort if a starting big is in foul trouble (which seems like every game)

We had trouble when they sent the big-to-big double team. I’m sure the coaches will work on that but I expect all teams going forward to double in the post and make someone other than Bagley or Carter beat them

Tyus Jones spoiled us all. He was incredibly steady as a freshman point guard, but he’s a freak of nature. All of our other freshman starting points had really up and down play - Hurley throwing passes into the stands, Jwill forcing bad shots, Duhon launching 35 footers for no reason, Paulus playing with his back to the basket half the time, Thornton over dribbling. It’s tough to run the team as a freshman, and Duval has rough stretches just like the others. He has a ton of talent so I’m confident he will get there but there will continue to be growing pains.

hsheffield
11-30-2017, 06:41 AM
not sure if it's a causal relationship, but anyone else notice that our late game surges seem to be associated with foul trouble for our opponent?


on another note, looks like a lot of elbow 'hooking' going by both Bagley and Carter. for those more knowledgable than I, is this something refs mostly let go? or is it going to haunt us if they keep it up?

wilson
11-30-2017, 06:49 AM
Not sure what a battle teat is, sounds kinda...naughty ;-)Something along these lines, I guess.
7855

arnie
11-30-2017, 07:03 AM
Just wanted to point out in the PK80 at the end of the game K put in Javin as a Carter's defensive replacement when Carter got into foul trouble. Last night it was Bolden after he dove for the ball on that steal.

Bolden immediately proceeded to foul a İU player and got pulled for Javin the next substitution.

Bolden has a lot of potential just needs to show hustle and stop making silly plays

My guess is Javins minutes are Boldens for the taking.

I don’t know about the last line - we need both to play well; there will be lots of opportunities as Carter/Bagley can’t play 35+ minutes a night. I’m still more comfortable with Javin over Bolden on D.

Troublemaker
11-30-2017, 07:04 AM
To help even further appreciate Duke's perfect start to the season, let me point out that only two teams in the top 100 have played 9 games thus far (Duke and Stanford). The vast majority of teams have played only 7, sometimes 6, and sometimes as few as 5 games. We're exhausted, as Coach K mentioned in the postgame presser.

Showing the top 25 below, and full list here: www.kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com)


https://i.imgur.com/aXxdWPr.png

91devil
11-30-2017, 07:18 AM
Looks like twenty undefeated teams left in the country? Five of whom are in the ACC.

SkyBrickey
11-30-2017, 07:25 AM
Great win. Loved the balanced scoring attack. Loved Trevon's 0 turnover performance. Loved the poise of the freshman bigs on the blocks - high percentage shots and smart plays when the double teams showed. Loved Bolden's hustle steal.

We don't need GT to be a great 3 point shooter, just a more consistent 3 point shooter. When he goes 0-6 like he did last night, it really digs a hole for the rest of the team. I hope he gets it figured out soon. Agree with a previous poster who made the point that almost all are rattling in and out. And 25-26 from the line gives me great hope for the 3 point stroke...

I was yelling at Coach to go back to the zone in the 2nd half, but I think he's playing the long game just like he did against Florida. We're going to sink or swim with M2M in the the second half because it will make us a better team in March. And in both games, we locked down the M2M late game and pulled it out. GOAT.

lotusland
11-30-2017, 07:49 AM
Reviewing the box score. Robert Johnson led Indiana with 17 points and added 4 rebounds. To whom did he sell his soul (https://www.npr.org/2011/05/07/136063911/robert-johnson-at-100-still-dispelling-myths) to make that happen?

Eric Clapton?

JGB
11-30-2017, 08:29 AM
Eric Clapton?

... +1

kmspeaks
11-30-2017, 08:44 AM
First half Bolden had me asking for Javin. Second half Bolden was fantastic.

The Indiana crowd was loud but I was unimpressed. You're THE university in a state where basketball is king and the best you can do is boo every call that goes against you even when it's obviously correct? :confused:

Lunchab1es
11-30-2017, 08:46 AM
These close games are exhausting! While they are super fun to watch, my heart is ready for this team to play a few cupcakes in Cameron. With all of the factors that Troublemaker laid out, I was expecting this to be a close, tough game. Loved seeing us be tougher.

Really enjoyed seeing Bolden come in and get a few big plays when we needed it.

UrinalCake
11-30-2017, 08:51 AM
on another note, looks like a lot of elbow 'hooking' going by both Bagley and Carter. for those more knowledgable than I, is this something refs mostly let go? or is it going to haunt us if they keep it up?

I’d say they mostly let it go unless it’s really obvious, like the one that Carter got called for. He did almost the same thing a couple plays later and didn’t get called. Okafor use to do it all the time and rarely got called, but it is something that our bigs need to be aware of. Probably Carter more so than Bagley, as he uses more pivot moves in the most while Bagley likes to face up and dribble around his man.

Trent reminds me of Luke his freshman year. Both came in with reputations as being shooters, and both struggled with their three point shot but found other ways to score. Gary’s defense is much better and he plays a much bigger role due to roster makeup, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to be the inconsistent with the long ball until his sophomore year like Luke.

Really impressive win against Indiana’s best shot. Was really key that we didn’t get rattled early on when their crowd was going nuts. Grayson picked his spots well, I think he knows that he could score 30 every game if he wanted by dominating the ball, but it’s better for the team’s long-term success that everyone get involved.

CajunDevil
11-30-2017, 09:16 AM
Thoughts:

Bolden's second half was spectacular! It won't show in the stats but he was great.

Trent's late cut to the basket was brilliant, as was Bagley's find that resulted in Trent's and-1.

There was one sequence in the first half, where the ball went to Bagley and he hit Carter underneath for a dunk. It was so fast, fluid, and unstoppable. I think it was #5 on the Duke post-game highlights tweet.

I started thinking about when I've had this much confidence in a Duke team in late game situations before. 2015? Tyus was comfort-maker but still didn't feel as good as I do about late game situations as I do with this team. 2010? No. 2001? Maybe. 1999? Not enough close games to feel good about late-game situations. When they had their big one, they lost. 1992? Yes - every situation I expected us make the right play. Trent's confidence and ability to come through in the clutch, along with Bagley's determination & talent, Duval's fearlessness, and Carter seemingly always getting above the rim with two hands snatching the rebound in last 5 minutes... it's crazy.

whereinthehellami
11-30-2017, 09:27 AM
Huge win. This team didn't have much left in the tank. I'm really impressed with the maturity of the freshman. Bagley's attitude makes him a great teammate, might be his most important quality on this team. He looks to have unpacked his bags for the season.

Amazing run by this team, considering the flaws they have in their game right now. Consider that they now have a month to work on those flaws before they play FSU (Dec 30). If they can stay healthy, this is going to be one special season.

jacone21
11-30-2017, 09:30 AM
...

The Indiana crowd was loud but I was unimpressed. You're THE university in a state where basketball is king and the best you can do is boo every call that goes against you even when it's obviously correct? :confused:

I noticed that as well. It was like Indiana fans turned into Maryland fans.

BandAlum83
11-30-2017, 09:35 AM
I think it's just amazing we have both Bagley AND Carter on this team. What amazing talents who play together so well. I don't sense ego above team with them. They are both so willing to share the ball and pass for the better shot.

Simply incredible.

There are no ball stoppers on this team. Coach K either recruits spot on, or is an amazing psychologist & motivator, or more than likely both.

Neals384
11-30-2017, 09:44 AM
Hi everyone. This is my first post on DBR tonight, although I've been lurking for a while. Awesome to see Bagley score a "quiet" 23. I think that when Trent finds his stroke we can be really dangerous. I'm so excited to see what this team can do..

Welcome, BD!


Great points. I was also asking for K to stay in M2M forcing the youngsters to grind it out and learn from there mistakes win or lose in chat while many felt we should go zone, this will pay dividends in the long run.

It's good i hear things tend to like to blossom late march early April round these parts, but i'd also settle for first week'a December :cool::cool:

LETS GO DUKE, GUTS THIS TEAMS GOT "IT"

Not me. With all the long arms and athleticism, this team was built for the zone. I think K knows it, but he's being a bit stubborn right now. I do agree that working on the M2M may pay dividends later but the zone could use some work too.


To help even further appreciate Duke's perfect start to the season, let me point out that only two teams in the top 100 have played 9 games thus far (Duke and Stanford). The vast majority of teams have played only 7, sometimes 6, and sometimes as few as 5 games. We're exhausted, as Coach K mentioned in the postgame presser.

Showing the top 25 below, and full list here: www.kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com)


I'm starting to think kenpom's computer has a touch of dementia. Duke is 4-0 vs. power conference teams, including wins over AP #2 and #7. Kansas has a win over Kentucky and 5 cupcakes. 'Nova has a win over Tennessee and 6 cupcakes. Yet Kansas is kenpom's #1 and 'Nova #2??????

Ballboy1998
11-30-2017, 09:45 AM
Another gritty win for this young team. They have a lot to learn, but it is great when you can learn and win at the same time. A few reactions:


Bagley and Carter continue to impress -- any other year and we wouldn't be able to stop talking about how amazing Carter is, but Bagley is just such a unique talent he takes up most of the oxygen. As said somewhere up thread, I would probably take either one of them over any other big in the country, and easily over any other freshman big in the country.


As many have pointed out, the defense is still a work in progress, but they have time and certainly have shown flashes. I thought Jay Bilas made a great point (i know) speaking with Scott Van Pelt on Sportscenter after the game when he said that playing the 2-3 zone defense for stretches would also help the young guys become better at Duke's man-to-man defense, because zone is all about positioning and that translates well to off-the-ball man-to-man concepts, which is where the team is struggling.


While it pains me to say it, I thought a lot of the worst defensive lapses by Duke in the first half were by Grayson. Numerous times he got stuck in-between guarding the pick-and-roll (which is partially a communication issue with the younger guys), got killed on backdoor cuts, or failed to put a body on his man once the shot went up, leading to offensive rebounds by guards. A lot of it can hopefully be explained away by fatigue, but it isn't just the young guys that have work to do on the defensive end.


As mediocre as the half-court defense has been for stretches, if the team could just cut down on opponent's transition points and early game offensive rebounds, that would fix a lot. Part of the transition issues may come from focusing so hard on exploiting Duke's own advantage on the offensive boards on the other end, but they have to find a way to get back and stop the ball in transition.


Finally, I agree with Coach K (bold, I know) that Bolden's diving steal was the play of the game. It is very rare to see the biggest guy on the court be the first one to the floor, and I love it. I hear a lot of folks criticize Bolden for his effort, and while it may be somewhat warranted, I think a lot of what appears to be lack of effort is actually just hesitance from still being a bit uncertain out on the floor. The game still hasn't totally slowed down for Bolden, but I think it will and when it does everyone should watch out.

Billy Dat
11-30-2017, 09:46 AM
The Indiana crowd was loud but I was unimpressed. You're THE university in a state where basketball is king and the best you can do is boo every call that goes against you even when it's obviously correct? :confused:

From an Indiana paper's write-up (I assume a paper, it seemed like a Gannett-owned website)
Freddie McSwain Jr., brought the house down with an early dunk over Duke’s Grayson Allen, who was often booed Wednesday and serenaded by IU’s students with a word that starts with “F” (“They had a new (cheer) that they never had when Coach Knight was here,” Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski said in response, “which I think they should probably get rid of.


There was one sequence in the first half, where the ball went to Bagley and he hit Carter underneath for a dunk. It was so fast, fluid, and unstoppable. I think it was #5 on the Duke post-game highlights tweet.


G's first half baseline slam was also vicious, and #3 on the top 5. (#4 was Trent's cut bucket +1 in the end of the game, #2 was Marquese's loose ball dive, #1 was G's side step back breaker 3).

Other quickies:
-When asked about developing the bench in the post game presser, K went on another lecture about how it's more important to develop the starters. He added, "That's the kind of question a fan would ask". I don't know why he feels the need to be such a D in those scenarios, but I guess he's an emotional guy who, like the players, gets himself keyed up for games and when he feels attacked, lashes out a bit. I still think it's a bad look but it's part of who he is.
-We had a 10 point lead in that second half, and we let it vanish pretty quick. A sign of maturity will be if we can keep our foot on the gas when we get those leads.
-K talked about Marvin and G developing a nice two man game. I agree that is key for this squad and the other guys will have to learn to move off the ball for the many openings that will happen as a result of the Marvin and Grayson gravity. Trent's dash into the lane for the catch, finish +1 at the end of the game was a perfect example.

Billy Dat
11-30-2017, 10:07 AM
While it pains me to say it, I thought a lot of the worst defensive lapses by Duke in the first half were by Grayson. Numerous times he got stuck in-between guarding the pick-and-roll (which is partially a communication issue with the younger guys), got killed on backdoor cuts, or failed to put a body on his man once the shot went up, leading to offensive rebounds by guards. A lot of it can hopefully be explained away by fatigue, but it isn't just the young guys that have work to do on the defensive end.


Good call, I have also found G to be the culprit of a lot of our defensive breakdowns.

Henderson
11-30-2017, 10:20 AM
76% from the FT line, another good game for that stat. I wouldn't make too much of that, but I also wouldn't assume that 65% is "who we are".

Ima Facultiwyfe
11-30-2017, 10:20 AM
This. I feel like Bolden's flying under the radar this season —I'm a real wanker for saying this.understandable given the Bagley and Carter Show —I'm a real wanker for saying this.but I think he's made a very noticeable improvement over last season, particularly on defense. He's far more active and gets caught out of position less. I'll be interested to see what share of minutes he gets going forward — he had a few key defensive plays tonight, including that clutch steal.

I feel that trip to the floor Bolden made to grab and win the wrestling match for the ball was HUGE!!!! Sent a message at a crucial time in the game that said we were not going away. Terrific move for a big man. Still waters run deep. Bless his heart!
Love, Ima

devildeac
11-30-2017, 10:26 AM
This season has taught me for this team, it ain’t over til its over.

Heart, grit, toughness.

Impressive hard earned victory.


You forgot guts. :rolleyes:;)

Pretty nice close-out as Duke outscored IU 22-8 over the last ~6:30 of the contest.

devildeac
11-30-2017, 10:27 AM
If we played defense at the beginning of games like we do at the end of games, we'd be undefeated and a unanimous #1 in the AP poll.

Depends on who's voting...

:rolleyes:;)

elvis14
11-30-2017, 10:28 AM
not sure if it's a causal relationship, but anyone else notice that our late game surges seem to be associated with foul trouble for our opponent?


on another note, looks like a lot of elbow 'hooking' going by both Bagley and Carter. for those more knowledgable than I, is this something refs mostly let go? or is it going to haunt us if they keep it up?

IMHO, what I see is that teams often use fouls to stay close to us and to slow down our offense. As the game gets late, this will catch up with them in 2 ways: players fouling out or being sent to the bench so they don't foul out, Duke getting into the double bonus early and getting 2 FT's per foul.

As for the elbow hook...that's not called very often. Almost every hook that gets called is when an offensive player uses is off arm to reach around the defender. I know Carter's elbow hook was a tough one but it's just not called that way. One thing that was weird last night was the one team seemed to get different calls than the other, very strange stuff.


First half Bolden had me asking for Javin. Second half Bolden was fantastic.

The Indiana crowd was loud but I was unimpressed. You're THE university in a state where basketball is king and the best you can do is boo every call that goes against you even when it's obviously correct? :confused:

I noticed the same thing, with the red and white uni's I wanted to double check and make sure we weren't playing NC State. It's a good reminder to me to only boo really bad calls when I'm in CIS.

rsvman
11-30-2017, 10:35 AM
Good, hard-fought win in a tough environment with the guys spent both physically and emotionally. All-in-all, I think it bodes well for our long-term outlook, but it also shows that no team is unbeatable. Having to gut out this type of win will help a lot with situations yet to come, but it won't necessarily always go our way.

This was also good practice against the pack-line defense, which will help when it comes to facing Virginia later in the season. Granted, Indiana doesn't run the packline quite as well as Virginia does, but it was still a fairly stout version.

The instant double that occurred with every pass to the post is something we may see again. Overall I think they handled it well. I would make it a focus of practices. Ultimately I think that particular defensive plan will fail, mainly because our big guys are not just post scorers, but they are also good passers. As soon as somebody is double-teamed, somebody else is open. Over the course of the season the bigs will get better and better at finding the open man.

A very satisfying win.

devildeac
11-30-2017, 10:37 AM
Reviewing the box score. Robert Johnson led Indiana with 17 points and added 4 rebounds. To whom did he sell his soul (https://www.npr.org/2011/05/07/136063911/robert-johnson-at-100-still-dispelling-myths) to make that happen?

"2011 would have marked the 100th birthday of Mississippi Delta bluesman Robert Johnson, who according to legend, sold his soul down at the crossroads in a midnight bargain and changed music forever."


https://www.dogfish.com/files/media/styles/beer_style/public/beer/Hellhound.jpg?itok=CIFiIrVQ

What'd you think I'd post about? ;):o

devildeac
11-30-2017, 10:39 AM
Eric Clapton?


... +1

I think we've reached a Crossroads with these references...

devildeac
11-30-2017, 10:41 AM
I noticed that as well. It was like Indiana fans turned into Maryland fans.

B1G disease/epidemic?

wilson
11-30-2017, 10:43 AM
I noticed that as well. It was like Indiana fans turned into Maryland fans.If I didn't know any better, I'd say that the twerps' presence has a toxic effect on entire conferences.
But I won't say that.

azzefkram
11-30-2017, 10:57 AM
Gosh did they look flat-footed for much of the game. I wonder why Duke scheduled such a gauntlet of games to start the season, especially with a young team that would benefit from more practice time. I normally don't look forward to the exam and holiday gaps but this team looks like it could use a breather.

Marvin and Wendell are beasts. I would be happy to have just one of them but both is just insane. Add in Javin and Marques as more than capable back-ups and we are cooking with gas on the frontline. Trevon had a great game and played in control for much of the game. Grayson hit some tough (and crucial) shots but was fairly bad on D. While Gary's 0-6 from 3 looks ugly, I didn't think any of them looked like bad shots and a few seemed to go halfway down and pop out. I thought his D was strong and he continues the trend of making at least on heady play per game. I do wish he would drive more. He seems do have a good handle and the strength to get to the rim. Plus he might get to the line more which wouldn't be a bad thing. Javin, Marques and AOC had good minutes off of the bench.

I love how this team can close out games. Given my advanced age, I hope they can learn to step on a team early. I could use a few stress free games.

OZ
11-30-2017, 10:59 AM
I noticed that as well. It was like Indiana fans turned into Maryland fans.


... yet another added benefit to this game. The new guys got to experience their first actual "travel" game in an environment that was as loud as they are going to experience; and they got the full load at once... an in-to-it loud crowd/student section... booing... per usual Grayson booing... complete with a well coached tough opponent. They should be getting a pretty good idea of what it is like to play for Duke - as well as being #1.

uh_no
11-30-2017, 11:04 AM
I largely liked what I saw last night.

The offense was much more under control...less forcing bad shots. The biggest disappointment was duval's fast break play. he went like 4-1 twice, it didn't go well, and at least once lead to an easy bucket going the other way. this is a pattern across games...pull the ball out, kid! Other than that, I thought duval played a pretty good game.

The defense, obviously, still a major problem. a 120 is an awful defensive output. What's somewhat stymieing is that it LOOKS different from recent teams which have petered out. We are able to adjust somewhat in game...so we don't get beaten by the same things over and over...it seems more like, we look at the right and get hit a couple times with the left jab...and then we start looking at the left and get hit with a right hook.

We're lucky that our offense is good enough (when we play like we ought like last night, as opposed to certain long stretches in oregon) that we should be able to score consistently enough to win solidly...like last night...even when the defense plays like crap.

So one other disappointment was defensive rebounding...though I think that's wrapped up in the above point where we don't seem to be able to focus on more than one thing at a time on that side of the floor. It improved down the stretch, but at one point, they were rebounding close to 50% of their misses. Not good. A lot of it seems to be the guards not boxing out, so their perimeter players can get tips and such. This is corroborated by the fact that their rebounds are far more evenly distributed across the team than ours are.

EDIT: also, i hope certain people who were harping on Bolden's effort go back and watch his steal over and over.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 11:04 AM
Bagley is probably the best college freshman I've ever seen. It's early, but just by the eye test, he's almost hands down the best Duke freshman ever. Has anyone been better?

As November freshman, I'd rank Bagley and Irving equally, since I already considered each to be the best college basketball player, in the nation, at their respective position.

I certainly think your shift from Grayson being the best player in the nation, to Bagley being the best Duke player, is accurate. If each stays healthy, I think Bagley will have the better season.

flyingdutchdevil
11-30-2017, 11:06 AM
Posted this in the wrong thread. Oops

1) Great win. No surprise that Duke can out a little sluggish. And absolutely no surprise that Duke's defense looked so damn lost. But we dealt with a hostile environment very well. Proud of this team.

2) This team has another gear in the last 5 min of the game. Our defense will never be elite. I get that. But, when these guys wanna play D, they can. Everything clicks in that last 5 min: lock down D, excellent rebounding, amazing shot making, smart passing, etc. All the shots that you want players to take they take and all the shots that you want players to not take they don't. I'm not sure I understand why we are so good in the last 5 min. I don't think it's maturity as much as it is the other team is so wiped out trying to guard our starters for 35 minutes.

3) 3pt alert: It will click for Trent Jr soon. Winslow's 3pt shooting in college was a fluke. Trent Jr seems to be the opposite: he's not making a lot of shots despite being very capable. Hell, the dude is shooting a ridiculous 96.2% from the FT line! That clearly isn't sustainable, but he's clearly an elite shooter from the line, meaning he's a capable (and possibly elite) shooter from the 3pt line. It will come. Side note: I love Trent's game. He's the fifth offensive banana on this team but he never stops moving. He cuts like crazy. I love it.

4) Duval is very underappreciated. Yes- he shoots too much from the 3pt line. Yes- it looks like he's out of control at times. Yes- he sometimes makes bonehead mistakes. But keep in mind that he's playing the most demanding and difficult position in college basketball. For Coach K, who demands more from his PGs than any other position. Outside of the PSU and UT games, Duval has 9 turnovers. 9 TURNOVERS! Against 50 assists. He's also such a capable defender. He is, by far, my emotional crush on this team.

5) We have defensive potential. I love our backcourt defenders. Trent is looking like the best defensive backcourt player, but Duval isn't far behind. They can form a really formidable defensive team. I think Grayson is below-average on D and will never be elite, but he has some good positioning. Bagley and Carter clearly have a ton to learn on the defensive end, but they are so damn strong and big. Hopefully the "D" in December stands for defense.

6) Bagley is unfair. The eye test showed he had an okay game. Turnovers, got burned on D, fouled a bunch...but he somehow got 23 points and 10 rebounds. Also, his demeanor is unbelievable. His talent is the main reason to like the guy, but he does nothing to piss anyone off. When he makes a great play, he doesn't woof. When he has a great defensive play, he doesn't stare down the opponent. When things get chippy, he doesn't overreact. Which brings me to...

7) Carter needs to keep his emotions in check. Along with Bagley scoring 20+ points & gathering 10+ boards, Duval having one "holy hell" pass, and Duke turning it up in the last 5 min, I can guarantee that Carter will have a cheap foul or some type or retaliatory play. I can recall at least a half dozen chippy plays that Carter has been apart of. He looks so mature and immature all at the same time. His demeanor is the complete opposite of Bags. I hope the coaching staff tells him to tone it down, because it will get us into trouble at one point in the season.

COYS
11-30-2017, 11:14 AM
Between the holiday and life as a new father, I haven't had much time to post on the boards, recently. However, I have managed to avoid spoilers and use a combination of the DVR and WatchESPN to watch every second of every game . . . even when I sometimes have to split up the game into chunks over a 24 hour period. I finished watching the Portland State game after the Texas game had ended in real time.

Anyway, all this is to say that the extra effort I've taken to watch each game has been rewarded with some excellent basketball from this Duke team. It would be easy to point out that the defense has looked shaky at times (although the Indiana game is really the only time in which it was truly poor for pretty much the entire game) or lament the fact that non-top 25 teams like Portland State, Texas, and Indiana have kept things interesting for too long.

But I really don't think that's the main story. Instead, I've seen a young Duke team find ways to win even when they aren't playing their best. I've seen the youngest Duke team ever make mid-game adjustments that far more experienced teams have been unable to make. I've seen freshmen show incredible poise by shaking off poor games to hit big free throws, collect key boards, and score key buckets with full game pressure on the line. I've seen rookies play extended minutes with foul trouble. I've seen this team gut out a win in over-time with their lone senior leader on the bench after fouling out. I've seen this team come back from 17 down against a top 10 team. And I've seen this team win its first true road game against a team that had felled the previous four number one opponents that had walked through its doors. The team did all of this while flying across the country and with little to no time for rest or practice.

Basically, this was an incredibly impressive stretch.

A couple of observations:

While Trevon has not been perfect, I feel as if we're perhaps failing to see just how good he has been. His assist rates and turnover rates are both comparable to Tyus Jones' numbers from 2015. In addition, to getting assists, Trevon has also done an excellent job getting the ball to Marvin and Wendell in the post (as have our other guards). He's also helping to pilot the most efficient offense in the country. Obviously, I would love his FT% and 3pt% to improve, which would make him a potent weapon, indeed, but otherwise he has done an excellent job. KenPom classifies opponents as either A (top 50 opponents) or B (top 100 opponents), which also takes into account the environment (a road game against Indiana is a "B" game while a home game against Indiana would probably not qualify). So far, Duke has played three "A" games (Michigan State, Texas, Florida) and one "B" game (Indiana). In those games, Trevon is averaging 11.8 pts, 7 ast, and 3 to. I mean . . . that is REALLY REALLY good! I'm not saying he doesn't have room for improvement. He definitely has made a few errors. But I think he has proven himself to be a steady hand who has the potential for the spectacular as well as a few clunkers. Even Tyus made mental errors (his ill-advised attempt at a contested layup in the last minute against Wiscy in the championship game sticks out). If Trevon manages to improve on his performances in these four games, then the rest of college basketball really had better watch out.

I wrote in my Phase I post that it would be interesting to see how and where Marvin best fit into Duke's offense. Well, the answer is anywhere he wants! Wow, what a talent! Despite being spectacular on the court, he pours points in so effortlessly I'm sometimes shocked when ESPN flashes a graphic with his point total late in the 1st half or early in the 2nd half and he's already well into the teens. He works extremely quickly in the post. His athleticism makes difficult shots appear easy. And his ability to grab offensive boards and stuff them home in a crowd means that what counts as an "easy" bucket for Marvin looks a lot different than what counts as an "easy" bucket for anyone else. He has taken perhaps a total of five ill-advised shots in all the games combined. If his recent surge in free throw shooting is more than a blip, he is going to challenge for NPOY awards.

Wendell has not had things go as easily for him as Marvin. But he has fought through foul trouble and a couple rough starts to become an absolute force in the paint. His post moves are powerful and varied. His passing is excellent. And while his positioning isn't always perfect on defense, his shot-blocking ability has prevented driving guards from even attempting shots on a number of occasions. He is having a fantastic freshman season and is scoring and rebounding better than any freshman big man this century save for Jah . . . and his own teammate, Marvin.

The lack of guard depth this year meant that it was inevitable that at least one of Alex, J-Tuck, and J-Gold would get minutes. That being said, I never expected to see that Alex is averaging double figure minutes including significant minutes in games against good opponents. Gary has earned as many minutes as he can handle. Barring foul trouble, Grayson isn't coming out of the game. However, Alex proven that he is a capable backup when his number is called.

Grayson is going through a tough shooting stretch after the magic pixie dust wore off following the game against Sparty. However, he is doing an excellent job picking his spots. While he's good for the occasional ill-advised shot, he is managing to put points on the board very efficiently. In fact, despite not putting up the numbers that Marvin is putting up, Grayson has been Duke's most efficient offensive operator. He has also been solid dishing out assists despite moving off the ball this year. Grayson has played so many different roles for Duke over his career. He has also played with vastly different teams over his four seasons. However, he is adapting to his new teammates and new role very well.

Gary isn't shooting well from three, but otherwise he has been the perfect glue-guy. He doesn't need the ball in his hands to get his points. He has the size and mobility to play multiple roles on the defensive end. He is a much-needed high percentage free-throw shooter who can help us close out games. And he seems to be as tough as nails both physically and mentally. It is crazy to think that he is usually Duke's 4th or 5th option on offense and yet he is still averaging double figures despite not getting many of his threes to go down. Here's hoping his long-range shots start finding their mark.

Javin and Marques are fascinating apple and orange options off the bench. Javin is an energizer bunny with the hops to boot who is all over the place on the defensive end. Marques plays with energy, too, but in a more traditional big man way by hedging on screens (his hedge and dive-on-the-floor steal against Indiana was awesome!). Neither has been able to avoid picking up fouls, but both have had some moments in which they have looked excellent. Hopefully they both can build on the positives from the early season.

The team has already gained some big-time experience against tough opponents in less-than-ideal environments. The rest of the non-conference schedule is lackluster, but this team should be well-prepared for ACC play.

Stray Gator
11-30-2017, 11:16 AM
I expected a tough game from a well-coached, fundamentally sound Indiana squad; and I'm glad that we got that, because it was fun to watch and will be beneficial for the development of our inexperienced team. Kudos to the Indiana players and coaches.

What I didn't anticipate last night -- and was very disappointed to see -- was such a disgraceful display of poor manners from an Indiana crowd, which revealed a surprising deficiency in their fans' understanding of the game (repeatedly booing calls of obvious fouls) as well as their common decency (resorting to an obscene chant, which was not limited to a small group but was loud and sustained). That combination of embarrassing behaviors is something that we've seen when visiting FSU, where the fans act as if they're at an indoor football game. But I expected better from the Hoosier fans, given their reputation of reverence for the game.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 11:19 AM
Between the holiday and life as a new father.....

Congrats, hope everyone is doing great!

COYS
11-30-2017, 11:24 AM
7) Carter needs to keep his emotions in check. Along with Bagley scoring 20+ points & gathering 10+ boards, Duval having one "holy hell" pass, and Duke turning it up in the last 5 min, I can guarantee that Carter will have a cheap foul or some type or retaliatory play. I can recall at least a half dozen chippy plays that Carter has been apart of. He looks so mature and immature all at the same time. His demeanor is the complete opposite of Bags. I hope the coaching staff tells him to tone it down, because it will get us into trouble at one point in the season.

Do you really think this is an issue? Yeah, he looks annoyed when he picks up cheap fouls, but otherwise I haven't seen anything that is particularly concerning. Even the infamous foul against Sparty didn't seem like much to be concerned about as it seemed clear to me that he was not intentionally trying to elbow anyone but was instead trying to knock the Sparty player's hand away from his jersey by blindly flailing his arm. Yeah, it was rightly called a foul and wasn't the smartest thing to do, but it wasn't anything particularly egregious and was understandable (Justise had a number of borderline plays in 2015 that were clearly more calculated). Wendell is also doing most of the dirty work in the post. Physicality is part of his game. I wouldn't really consider anything other than that foul against Sparty to be "chippy." More like sometimes he just gets too physical trying to create space for himself or makes an ill-advised reach-in. Basic freshman big-man stuff.

I agree that I hope that he cuts down on cheap fouls, but I haven't seen anything at all that makes me concerned that his demeanor or attitude are a problem. Despite the fact that he's been saddled with foul trouble in many of the games, he has persevered on numerous occasions to make big plays in late-and-close situations.

olddevil
11-30-2017, 11:44 AM
When the season began, I had two big questions about this team. This game answered both. First, can we win when we are tired and our outside game is missing? Answer: yes, we can by a combination of inside offensive play and lockdown defense (admittedly in this game only the last five minutes). Second, do we have a leader who in Battier-like fashion will not let us lose? Answer: yes, we have TWO such leaders, Allen and Bagley. I am ready to predict that we will be number 1 at the end of the season.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 11:49 AM
Haven't seen any mention of it yet, but Duval had an injury to his foot or lower leg in the first half at one point, but obviously came back and played the 2nd half. It'll be something to keep track of, because we are a very different team if any of the starting guards is out for any reason. There hasn't been much news about it, so hopefully he is fine.

dukejim1
11-30-2017, 11:53 AM
I thought Trent was the only one that was taken back by the crowd for awhile. He did not look confident in his movement or shot for a lot of the game. The fact that crunch time of a big game in a tough environment settled him in to making the plays he can make is a real tell about his drive to win. I think he will continue to evolve into a star on a team of stars as he improves his confidence. As a fan, after this stretch of games I also need a day off.

jv001
11-30-2017, 11:54 AM
When the season began, I had two big questions about this team. This game answered both. First, can we win when we are tired and our outside game is missing? Answer: yes, we can by a combination of inside offensive play and lockdown defense (admittedly in this game only the last five minutes). Second, do we have a leader who in Battier-like fashion will not let us lose? Answer: yes, we have TWO such leaders, Allen and Bagley. I am ready to predict that we will be number 1 at the end of the season.

I can't safely say that we'll be #1 at the end of the season. I've seen some very good Duke teams run in to a hot shooter or one of our great players get sick(Verga) and then there's the one that I'll not bring up because we've been healthy so far. I agree that's it great to have something to fall back on when the outside shot is not going in. We have the best inside players in the country with MBIII and Wendell but it doesn't stop there because we have Javin, Marques and Vrank(in the pinch) to spell those guys. You also make a good point in having go to guys in Grayson and Marvin. It helps that those two are good passers and can get others easy baskets. With the talent and coaching we have, this could be a special year. GoDuke!

jv001
11-30-2017, 11:58 AM
I thought Trent was the only one that was taken back by the crowd for awhile. He did not look confident in his movement or shot for a lot of the game. The fact that crunch time of a big game in a tough environment settled him in to making the plays he can make is a real tell about his drive to win. I think he will continue to evolve into a star on a team of stars as he improves his confidence. As a fan, after this stretch of games I also need a day off.

I believe Gary's struggle with his outside shot got in his head and it affected his play for a while. But he's such a good all round player he can help in other ways. His FT shooting is off the charts and he's a good defender. He seems to be tough as nails. Once he starts to hit a few of those 3s, he'll be ok. GoDuke!

kAzE
11-30-2017, 12:00 PM
As November freshman, I'd rank Bagley and Irving equally, since I already considered each to be the best college basketball player, in the nation, at their respective position.

I certainly think your shift from Grayson being the best player in the nation, to Bagley being the best Duke player, is accurate. If each stays healthy, I think Bagley will have the better season.

That's not really what I said. I just said Bagley is the best freshmen I've ever seen, which is crazy, because there can actually still be a debate over who is the best player on the team. Bagley has been the best player on the team thus far, and it seems likely that he will lead the team in scoring, but it's still only 9 games. Teams will begin to adjust what they do against us defensively. So far, most teams have been focused on stopping Grayson, but I would expect him start putting up better overall games as opponents start to shift their attention more towards Bagley and Carter.

Grayson is still averaging 17 points, 3 boards, 4.6 assists, only 1.7 turnovers, 46% from the field and 43% from 3. He hasn't played that well outside of 1 game and his averages are still great. He's absolutely still in the NPOY race. We have 2 guys who are in the first team AA conversation and Carter has to be at least in the running for a spot on the 2nd or 3rd team. We're loaded.

uh_no
11-30-2017, 12:05 PM
That's not really what I said. I just said Bagley is the best freshmen I've ever seen, which is crazy, because there can actually still be a debate over who is the best player on the team. Bagley has been the best player on the team thus far, and it seems likely that he will lead the team in scoring, but it's still only 9 games. Teams will begin to adjust what they do against us defensively. So far, most teams have been focused on stopping Grayson, but I would expect him start putting up better overall games as opponents start to shift their attention more towards Bagley and Carter.

Grayson is still averaging 17 points, 3 boards, 4.6 assists, only 1.7 turnovers, 46% from the field and 43% from 3. He hasn't played that well outside of 1 game and his averages are still great. He's absolutely still in the NPOY race.

I thought he played pretty good last night....i'll take 21 points on 7-12 shooting any game.....unless you think he played poorly against MSU?

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 12:09 PM
That's not really what I said. Bagley has been the best player on the team thus far, but it's still only 9 games. Teams will begin to adjust what they do against us defensively. So far, most teams have been focused on stopping Grayson, but I would expect him start putting up better overall games as opponents start to shift their attention more towards Bagley and Carter.

Grayson is still averaging 17 points, 3 boards, 4.6 assists, only 1.7 turnovers, 46% from the field and 43% from 3. He hasn't played that well outside of 1 game and his averages are still great. He's absolutely still in the NPOY race.

Cool, then we still disagree. IMO, Bagley is our best player and Grayson will not be NPOY. Like Irving, I think Bagley goes #1 in NBA draft. He is very special!

kAzE
11-30-2017, 12:12 PM
I thought he played pretty good last night...i'll take 21 points on 7-12 shooting any game...unless you think he played poorly against MSU?

He a great player, and that's an average game from him. He averaged 21.6, 4.6, and 3.5 as a sophomore. He has way better games coming.


Cool, then we still disagree. IMO, Bagley is our best player and Grayson will not be NPOY. Like Irving, I think Bagley goes #1 in NBA draft. He is very special!

Okay, I guess. It's not like I think Grayson will go higher than Bagley in the draft . . . they are both really good. Bagley is better than anyone expected, but it's a small sample size, and Grayson hasn't been at his best outside of the MSU game. Not sure why you're in such a rush to pass judgment.

jipops
11-30-2017, 12:19 PM
Posted this in the wrong thread. Oops


7) Carter needs to keep his emotions in check. Along with Bagley scoring 20+ points & gathering 10+ boards, Duval having one "holy hell" pass, and Duke turning it up in the last 5 min, I can guarantee that Carter will have a cheap foul or some type or retaliatory play. I can recall at least a half dozen chippy plays that Carter has been apart of. He looks so mature and immature all at the same time. His demeanor is the complete opposite of Bags. I hope the coaching staff tells him to tone it down, because it will get us into trouble at one point in the season.

I've actually gotten a different impression of Wendell. I love his demeanor and I hope he doesn't change any of it. Now his defensive positioning and his current tendency to move his body into the offensive player or his tendency to reach is another story. But I love that he has this mostly stoic yet angry and focused demeanor on the court. I don't think there is anything for him to "tone" down. The only encounter I've seen that I would consider "chippy' was when that kid (Portland St?) grabbed his shirt and Wendell swiped his arm to get away which accidentally landed on the kid's face. He is a physical player and in his position he is going to encounter physical play. And as an 18 year old kid I think he has handled himself with excellent maturity so far.

Highlander
11-30-2017, 12:19 PM
Another gritty win for this young team. They have a lot to learn, but it is great when you can learn and win at the same time. A few reactions:


As mediocre as the half-court defense has been for stretches, if the team could just cut down on opponent's transition points and early game offensive rebounds, that would fix a lot. Part of the transition issues may come from focusing so hard on exploiting Duke's own advantage on the offensive boards on the other end, but they have to find a way to get back and stop the ball in transition.



Agreed. It seems that a bad shot on the offensive end repeatedly led to an easy basket on the other end. Conversely, a made bucket allowed us to set our defense and improved our efficiency. I also agree that it seemed like we were being outhustled in the first half. K noted in the presser that the team was gassed from the weekend and long flight home, and that they haven't had a chance to really work on the issues they have seen in the past few games due to a lack of practice time. He said the team was getting today off, so likely not a ton of a time to fix by next game either, but December looks like a much better opportunity to fix things in practice.

Biggest surprise stat-wise for me was to see that Indiana held their own on the boards and actually won on the offensive glass. I think that was probably best explained by them outhustling a tired Duke team to the ball.


IMHO, what I see is that teams often use fouls to stay close to us and to slow down our offense. As the game gets late, this will catch up with them in 2 ways: players fouling out or being sent to the bench so they don't foul out, Duke getting into the double bonus early and getting 2 FT's per foul.


True. The Texas game really turned when their second big fouled out. They only had 3, so that left a 6'4" guy to cover Bagley, and that's just not going to end well for you. Conversely, we have four capable bigs, so the loss of 1 or even 2 is not insurmountable. That brings me to my next point - Bagley is really good at not fouling. It was unusual last night to see him anywhere close to foul trouble, and that was the result of three 50/50 calls, two of which were Davis bulldozing his way through Bagley who was doing his best to remain vertical. The third was a moving screen on an exchange where he subtly backed into the player to give Grayson some room. Definitely a foul, but I can't recall someone getting called for a moving screen with their back before.

Channing
11-30-2017, 12:20 PM
He a great player, and that's an average game from him. He averaged 21.6, 4.6, and 3.5 as a sophomore. He has way better games coming.



Okay, I guess. It's not like I think Grayson will go higher than Bagley in the draft . . . they are both really good. Bagley is better than anyone expected, but it's a small sample size, and Grayson hasn't been at his best outside of the MSU game. Not sure why you're in such a rush to pass judgment.

Even if just average for Grayson (how spoiled are we), last night certainly doesn't fit the category of not playing that well.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 12:24 PM
Even if just average for Grayson (how spoiled are we), last night certainly doesn't fit the category of not playing that well.

Okay fine, he's had 2 great games. He actually played really well against Texas and Florida too, despite his shot being off. All I was saying is that he has the ability to play much better than he has thus far. Does that satisfy you nit-pickers?

killerleft
11-30-2017, 12:25 PM
Reviewing the box score. Robert Johnson led Indiana with 17 points and added 4 rebounds. To whom did he sell his soul (https://www.npr.org/2011/05/07/136063911/robert-johnson-at-100-still-dispelling-myths) to make that happen?

Mr. Johnson sings over in the corner by the bar
Sold his soul to the devil so he could play guitar

-Lucinda Williams, 2 Kool 2 be 4-gotten

Duke79UNLV77
11-30-2017, 12:26 PM
That brings me to my next point - Bagley is really good at not fouling. It was unusual last night to see him anywhere close to foul trouble, and that was the result of three 50/50 calls, two of which were Davis bulldozing his way through Bagley who was doing his best to remain vertical.

I would have liked to see one of our bigs do the pull out the chair defensive move on Davis once. I think he would have gone flying into the basket support.

jv001
11-30-2017, 12:30 PM
Okay fine, he's had 2 great games. He actually played really well against Texas and Florida too, despite his shot being off. Does that satisfy the you nit-pickers?

Since we've had so many games in a short time period, I may have this game wrong, but here goes; I thought Grayson played less than average for most of the Texas game. However late in the 2nd half, Coach K too Trevon out and put Grayson at the point. He immediately began going down low to Marvin and we suddenly looked like a different team on offense. Then when Grayson fouled out, Duval came back in and :cool:played much better. Just my eye test. :cool:GoDuke!

slower
11-30-2017, 12:35 PM
I noticed that as well. It was like Indiana fans turned into Maryland fans.

Yeah, I've always been indifferent to IU hoops. However, after last night's display by their fans, I'll be happy to root against them for all eternity.

Also, fishwrap hack Doyel was screaming about how the refs were in K's back pocket last night. And so it goes.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 12:35 PM
Since we've had so many games in a short time period, I may have this game wrong, but here goes; I thought Grayson played less than average for most of the Texas game. However late in the 2nd half, Coach K too Trevon out and put Grayson at the point. He immediately began going down low to Marvin and we suddenly looked like a different team on offense. Then when Grayson fouled out, Duval came back in and :cool:played much better. Just my eye test. :cool:GoDuke!

Totally agree. Grayson didn't have a good first half at all in the Texas game, but I thought he was the main catalyst for the comeback. He made some really nice passes to set up some easy buckets and was dominating the 2nd half up until he fouled out. Bagley obviously did the rest. It's nice to have 2 superstars at the college level.


Yeah, I've always been indifferent to IU hoops. However, after last night's display by their fans, I'll be happy to root against them for all eternity.

Also, fishwrap hack Doyel was screaming about how the refs were in K's back pocket last night. And so it goes.

Yeah, I'm okay with booing, but the constant "F you Grayson" chants were obnoxious and showed no class.

rsvman
11-30-2017, 12:36 PM
As far as emotions are concerned, I think everybody had done really well, especially considering the pressure cooker they've been in over the past week or so.
Honestly, the only thing I've seen that bothers me a little bit is that Duval seems to get pretty upset by defensive breakdowns and he often directs his frustration at teammates. I'd love to see that toned down, if possible.

azzefkram
11-30-2017, 12:48 PM
Okay fine, he's had 2 great games. He actually played really well against Texas and Florida too, despite his shot being off. All I was saying is that he has the ability to play much better than he has thus far. Does that satisfy you nit-pickers?

Offensively, Grayson is playing better now than he did as a sophomore. He is up across the board with TS%, eFG, FG% at the rim, 2pt J%, 3pt%, ARate, FT% and ORtg. His turnovers are slightly higher and he is not rebounding as well nor is he getting to the line as much. Marvin and Wendell are probably impacting his rebounding. I think the reduction in trips to the charity stripe is a conscious choice.

I think Grayson looks worse on D but that could be due to combination of Tre and Gary looking pretty good on D and Luke not being around to look so dreadful on D.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 12:49 PM
Okay, I guess. It's not like I think Grayson will go higher than Bagley in the draft . . . they are both really good. Bagley is better than anyone expected, but it's a small sample size, and Grayson hasn't been at his best outside of the MSU game. Not sure why you're in such a rush to pass judgment.

Thanks, you are entertaining! The pot calling the kettle black?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?40747-MBB-Duke-88-Michigan-St-81-Post-Game-Thread&p=1014377#post1014377

UrinalCake
11-30-2017, 12:54 PM
Thoughts:.
I started thinking about when I've had this much confidence in a Duke team in late game situations before. 2015? Tyus was comfort-maker but still didn't feel as good as I do about late game situations as I do with this team. 2010? No. 2001? Maybe. 1999? Not enough close games to feel good about late-game situations. When they had their big one, they lost. 1992? Yes - every situation I expected us make the right play.

That 2015 team was pretty fantastic at closing out games. We had huge comebacks against St John’s, UNC, UVA, and of course in the title game.

However, this season is the first time in my 20+ years of watching Duke basketball that I can say I feel like we could beat an elite team without shooting the three well. And that is a very comforting feeling when thinking about the tourney.

dukelifer
11-30-2017, 01:00 PM
That 2015 team was pretty fantastic at closing out games. We had huge comebacks against St John’s, UNC, UVA, and of course in the title game.

However, this season is the first time in my 20+ years of watching Duke basketball that I can say I feel like we could beat an elite team without shooting the three well. And that is a very comforting feeling when thinking about the tourney.

Yes- the ability to score down low in money time is a great luxury. If they can get one more consistent 3 point shooter and figure out their positions on D- it will be a very dangerous team in March.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 01:00 PM
Thanks, you are entertaining! The pot calling the kettle black?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?40747-MBB-Duke-88-Michigan-St-81-Post-Game-Thread&p=1014377#post1014377

What's your point? I've seen Grayson Allen play for 3+ years. He's a NPOY contender. I made a prediction. It wasn't a statement of fact. You don't know anything more than anyone else. Are you just that eager to prove your predictive dominance on a message board? Or do you just relish picking little personal battles for amusement? I certainly don't think my opinions are more or less accurate or important than anyone else's, including yours. We have 2 awesome players. Bagley has the most talent, and Grayson the most experience. Who cares which one is better? Everyone makes good and bad calls. I'll stick with mine.

jv001
11-30-2017, 01:06 PM
Yes- the ability to score down low in money time is a great luxury. If they can get one more consistent 3 point shooter and figure out their positions on D- it will be a very dangerous team in March.

And I'm liking the improvement in FT shooting from Marvin and Carter. That means Coach K will not have to sub them out at the end of games as he did Jah in 2015. GoDuke!

ncexnyc
11-30-2017, 01:13 PM
I've resigned myself to the fact that a young team such as this one is going to have its ups and down and that I'll see a number of head scratching plays during the course of a game.

That being said, last night was an extremely impressive win. There were several times during the game where I was waiting for the wheels to come off, as the team was playing in such a loud and hostile environment. Despite all of that they managed to hang tough and in the end they won another big game.

Call it guts, heart, or moxie this team has it in spades. I was quite pleased to see Allen hunting his shot in the second half as that is what you expect from your senior leader. I'm also starting to really appreciate Trent's game. He picks his spots really well and is a bulldog on defense. I passed on the MOTM voting as this was a total team effort.

Hopefully my blood pressure will catch a break on Saturday.

FerryFor50
11-30-2017, 01:14 PM
Offensively, Grayson is playing better now than he did as a sophomore. He is up across the board with TS%, eFG, FG% at the rim, 2pt J%, 3pt%, ARate, FT% and ORtg. His turnovers are slightly higher and he is not rebounding as well nor is he getting to the line as much. Marvin and Wendell are probably impacting his rebounding. I think the reduction in trips to the charity stripe is a conscious choice.

I think Grayson looks worse on D but that could be due to combination of Tre and Gary looking pretty good on D and Luke not being around to look so dreadful on D.

I think the FT rate is probably one of the biggest reasons for his scoring decline; he's just not getting calls on drives since his junior year, after the tripping incidents.

His FG attempts are down a bit, as are his made FGs.

2015-16: 6.6FGM per game, 14.3FGA per game, 46.6% FG%
2016-17: 4.1FGM per game, 10.5FGA per game, 39.5% FG%
2017-18: 5.4FGM per game, 11.8FGA per game, 46.2% FG%

His FT attempts are WAY down, but he's shooting better from the FT line overall:

2015-16: 7FTA per game, 83.7%
2016-17: 4.7FTA per game, 81.1%
2017-18: 3.4FTA per game, 90.3%

His 3pt attempts are right around the same, and he's shooting better from 3 this year:

2015-16: 6 3pt attempts per game, 41.7%
2015-16: 6.5 3pt attempts per game, 36.5%
2015-16: 7 3pt attempts per game, 42.9%

From an eye test, I don't feel like he's settling for more jumpers inside the arc. I just think he's no longer getting the benefit of calls on contact on his drives. If he was getting 7 FTA per game this year, shooting at 90%, he'd get an extra 3 points per game, putting him at 20ppg. But, that's all speculative - we just have to be ok with the fact that he's shooting really well (better than any of his previous seasons), turning it over less and averaging more assists per game, I guess.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 01:20 PM
And I'm liking the improvement in FT shooting from Marvin and Carter. That means Coach K will not have to sub them out at the end of games as he did Jah in 2015. GoDuke!

IMO, we also would have benefitted from not letting Okafor play D. That's the area I'm really hoping Carter improves. Bagley is so extremely gifted that I think his D is all but certain to improve.

jv001
11-30-2017, 01:24 PM
IMO, we also would have benefitted from not letting Okafor play D. That's the area I'm really hoping Carter improves. Bagley is so extremely gifted that I think his D is all but certain to improve.

True about Jah, too bad we couldn't go FB and platoon for Jah on D :cool:. Carter seems to be more athletic than Jah, but he still get's caught out of position at times, as do all 8 guys in the rotation. Coach K has certainly got lot's of teaching material to show the guys in practice. GoDuke!

kAzE
11-30-2017, 01:25 PM
From an eye test, I don't feel like he's settling for more jumpers inside the arc. I just think he's no longer getting the benefit of calls on contact on his drives. If he was getting 7 FTA per game this year, shooting at 90%, he'd get an extra 3 points per game, putting him at 20ppg. But, that's all speculative - we just have to be ok with the fact that he's shooting really well (better than any of his previous seasons), turning it over less and averaging more assists per game, I guess.

Coach K has talked about Grayson a lot in his post game pressers, and has said multiple times that the coaching staff has pushed Grayson to tone down some of the recklessness in his game to reduce the number of hard falls he takes. Coach K specifically has told Grayson to look for his jumper first before trying to aggressively get in the paint, so it's unlikely that he will get back to taking 7 FTAs per game. He's been injured several times in his career, and it's probably the right thing to do in order to keep him healthy all season.

The downside to this is that he's really the only reliable shooter we have at the moment, so he's being picked up 35 feet from the hoop by opposing defenses, and not being given an inch to shoot 3s. Very few of his shots have been wide open with his feet set. He's been forced to shoot a ton of really difficult shots, but to his credit, he looked pretty good last night on those difficult looks (stepbacks, off the dribble, shooting while in the middle of turning).

I think Grayson's due for some big games in the next string of cupcakes on the schedule. He's had some really tough match ups thus far, and also had a wrist injury on his shooting hand that bothered him for a few games.

Highlander
11-30-2017, 01:35 PM
I would have liked to see one of our bigs do the pull out the chair defensive move on Davis once. I think he would have gone flying into the basket support.

Good call. I was thinking more that Shane Battier should give them a lesson in how to take a charge, but I like your solution better :)

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 01:40 PM
True about Jah, too bad we couldn't go FB and platoon for Jah on D :cool:. Carter seems to be more athletic than Jah, but he still get's caught out of position at times, as do all 8 guys in the rotation. Coach K has certainly got lot's of teaching material to show the guys in practice. GoDuke!

I'm not sure Okafor was giving 100% on D. His offensive footwork was exceptional and those feet moved a lot less on D.

I agree, positioning is a strong concern and relatively easy lesson. Effort is very solid at game's end. IMO, our very young team will be playing much better D in March.

flyingdutchdevil
11-30-2017, 01:40 PM
Do you really think this is an issue? Yeah, he looks annoyed when he picks up cheap fouls, but otherwise I haven't seen anything that is particularly concerning. Even the infamous foul against Sparty didn't seem like much to be concerned about as it seemed clear to me that he was not intentionally trying to elbow anyone but was instead trying to knock the Sparty player's hand away from his jersey by blindly flailing his arm. Yeah, it was rightly called a foul and wasn't the smartest thing to do, but it wasn't anything particularly egregious and was understandable (Justise had a number of borderline plays in 2015 that were clearly more calculated). Wendell is also doing most of the dirty work in the post. Physicality is part of his game. I wouldn't really consider anything other than that foul against Sparty to be "chippy." More like sometimes he just gets too physical trying to create space for himself or makes an ill-advised reach-in. Basic freshman big-man stuff.

I agree that I hope that he cuts down on cheap fouls, but I haven't seen anything at all that makes me concerned that his demeanor or attitude are a problem. Despite the fact that he's been saddled with foul trouble in many of the games, he has persevered on numerous occasions to make big plays in late-and-close situations.

It's something you see a lot from freshman. Surprisingly, Carter is the only one that I've seen this with amongst our talented freshman. Yesterday, there was one foul he had where Davis was being very aggressive on the offensive end. Carter - either thinking it was too aggressive or not liking any of it - pushed back hard at it was called as a foul (and it was certainly a foul). This isn't the first time he's done something like that. The Sparty play was another one. I think it absolutely warranted a foul. It wasn't understandable from a basketball perspective; he got baited into it and fell for the trap. If a Duke player did that, we'd have called it very smart.

There are clearly questionable calls on our players. However, whenever Carter gets called for a foul, I've noticed that it's definitely a foul. If he can reign in that chippiness, I think he'd be so much better.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 01:46 PM
Hopefully my blood pressure will catch a break on Saturday.

I have no such desire. I'm very pleased to get my aerobic exercise watching our games.

sagegrouse
11-30-2017, 01:47 PM
Here were my wishes coming into the Indiana game:


The last three games have been "The Perils of Pauline," starring the Duke basketball squad. I ain't taking anything for granted tonight, nor am I automatically assuming a comeback if we fall behind.

Pep talk points for the Blue Devils:

1. [Channeling Bones McKinney from 56 years ago.] "This here's my man Grayson Allen." If you guards don't get him the ball, you are gonna be sitting right here on the bench next to me." (Actual quote involved Wake's A-A center Len Chappell and was addressed, inter alia, to Billy Packer."

2. Grayson, you're the captain and the leader of this team. Demand the ball and make plays!

3. Wendell, you can play as well in the first ten minutes as in the last ten minutes. Go get 'em!

4. Trevon and Gary, I really liked the ball hawking at the end of the Florida game. Those were miracle plays and won the game for us. Keep up the good work!
Re #1 and #2: I thought Grayson was much more involved in the offense last night -- he was demanding the ball and made some brilliant plays.

#3 was dead center -- Wendell was productive from the get go -- although having to sit because of fouls reduced his first-half numbers.

#4 didn't show up as much. I thought Trevon and Gary played well, even though Gary couldn't buy a bucket.

Skydog
11-30-2017, 01:54 PM
I actually thought Carter was a bit unlucky in the fouls called department last night. Some of his "fouls" were very soft calls.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 01:56 PM
I actually thought Carter was a bit unlucky in the fouls called department last night. Some of his "fouls" were very soft calls.

Nah . . . luck had nothing to do with it. He's gotta stop reaching. Those "ticky tack" calls were legit fouls. Those are freshmen mistakes.

Kedsy
11-30-2017, 01:59 PM
My guess is Javins minutes are Boldens for the taking.

Marques was great last night, but I hope you're wrong. Javin is by far our best defensive player, both based on the eye test and based on (the admittedly dubious stat) dRating. I'm rooting for more minutes for Javin, not fewer.


Tyus Jones spoiled us all.

Here are Trevon's stats so far vs. Tyus's stats through his first 9 games. Tyus shot the three better and turned it over a bit less, but Trevon is superior in points per game, assists per game, steals per game, and two-point shooting percentage. Tyus quarterbacked a national champion, but through nine games he wasn't really any better than Trevon has been.



Player ppg apg tpg spg 2-pt% 3-pt% overall FG%
Tyus Jones 9.8 5.55 1.33 1.56 0.536 0.360 0.453
Trevon Duval 13.3 6.44 2.22 2.22 0.581 0.154 0.470



I'm starting to think kenpom's computer has a touch of dementia. Duke is 4-0 vs. power conference teams, including wins over AP #2 and #7. Kansas has a win over Kentucky and 5 cupcakes. 'Nova has a win over Tennessee and 6 cupcakes. Yet Kansas is kenpom's #1 and 'Nova #2??????

If wins and losses were all that counted, we'd all be fans of the RPI. Based on rating, Duke has seriously underachieved in three games so far (Southern, Portland State, and Indiana). Kansas, for example, has blown out every opponent except Kentucky, who they beat by approximately the expected amount. Based on any computer model, Kansas should be ahead of Duke.


I would probably take either one of them over any other big in the country, and easily over any other freshman big in the country.

Duke fans say stuff like this all the time, and maybe it's true. But how many other bigs have you actually seen play? Speaking only for myself, with my life where it is I rarely get to see non-Duke games. I haven't, for example, seen freshman DeAndre Ayton play. But he's averaging 19 and 12, so I can't imagine "easily" taking both Wendell and Marvin over him. I'm sure there are other great big men out there that I also haven't seen.

All that said, I'm happy to agree that the Wendell/Marvin frontcourt combination is amazing and is something we haven't seen at Duke in a long time (if ever).


76% from the FT line, another good game for that stat. I wouldn't make too much of that, but I also wouldn't assume that 65% is "who we are".

If Marvin shoots 75% from the line and Gary and Grayson both shoot 100% (all of which happened last night), then I'll agree with you. But if each of the three of them missed just one more free throw, we'd have been at 65.5% last night.

That said, something almost as important to our overall FT% as Marvin's recent free throw competence is how much Gary and Grayson can get to the line. Last night, the two of them together took 34.5% of our free throws (and didn't miss any of them). For the season (including last night), G&G have only accounted for 24.4% of our free throws. Even with Marvin's improvement, the non-GG portion of our team shot 63% on their free throws last night. How much Gary and Grayson get to the line will certainly have a big effect on our overall free throw percentage.


Granted, Indiana doesn't run the packline quite as well as Virginia does, but it was still a fairly stout version.

Per Pomeroy, Virginia's defense is currently #1 in the country (.855 ppp). Indiana is 219th (1.053 ppp). Based on those numbers, if both teams played 100 possessions, Indiana would give up 20 more points than UVa, so I wouldn't really characterize Indiana's version of the packline as "fairly stout." Even if the Hoosiers were normally stout, they certainly weren't against us (1.304 ppp).

I agree it's a good thing to experience the packline, but the challenge Virginia will pose to our offense will be of a completely different order than we experienced in Indiana.


Biggest surprise stat-wise for me was to see that Indiana held their own on the boards and actually won on the offensive glass. I think that was probably best explained by them outhustling a tired Duke team to the ball.

Well, they didn't really win on the offensive glass, it just looked that way because Indiana missed more shots. Duke gathered 40.0% of available offensive rebounds and Indiana got 38.2%. Though I agree that was a lot closer than it should have been. In fact, it was Duke's worst defensive rebounding performance of the season.

uh_no
11-30-2017, 02:13 PM
Nah . . . luck had nothing to do with it. He's gotta stop reaching. Those "ticky tack" calls were legit fouls. Those are freshmen mistakes.

yep. the arm comes down and makes contact will be a foul almost every time. His hook was especially egregious, and there was another one a couple calls later that ended up being an and 1 that should have been another hook. The indiana player was not happy, and he had every right to be.

He'll get there...it's small stuff....but when you're averaging a double double, the nit picks are the things you have the luxury to work on.

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-30-2017, 02:23 PM
Yeah, I've always been indifferent to IU hoops. However, after last night's display by their fans, I'll be happy to root against them for all eternity.
So does Grayson represent the new benchmark level on the Duke hate-o-meter? Persons of minimal intelligence expose themselves as such when the only thing they can do to get under a young man's skin is to hurl profanities in his direction on national TV. How sad. I hope GA enjoyed the win just a little more because of it.

I wonder if Archie had enough class to apologize to K and/or GA for the total lack of class of the IU fans. That was pathetic. I mean, I know the Crazies have done some pretty nasty stuff over the decades (and, no, this is not a cue to relive them all here) but K usually admonishes the crowd during or after a game in which the line has been crossed.

azzefkram
11-30-2017, 02:23 PM
I think the FT rate is probably one of the biggest reasons for his scoring decline; he's just not getting calls on drives since his junior year, after the tripping incidents.

His FG attempts are down a bit, as are his made FGs.

2015-16: 6.6FGM per game, 14.3FGA per game, 46.6% FG%
2016-17: 4.1FGM per game, 10.5FGA per game, 39.5% FG%
2017-18: 5.4FGM per game, 11.8FGA per game, 46.2% FG%

His FT attempts are WAY down, but he's shooting better from the FT line overall:

2015-16: 7FTA per game, 83.7%
2016-17: 4.7FTA per game, 81.1%
2017-18: 3.4FTA per game, 90.3%

His 3pt attempts are right around the same, and he's shooting better from 3 this year:

2015-16: 6 3pt attempts per game, 41.7%
2015-16: 6.5 3pt attempts per game, 36.5%
2015-16: 7 3pt attempts per game, 42.9%

From an eye test, I don't feel like he's settling for more jumpers inside the arc. I just think he's no longer getting the benefit of calls on contact on his drives. If he was getting 7 FTA per game this year, shooting at 90%, he'd get an extra 3 points per game, putting him at 20ppg. But, that's all speculative - we just have to be ok with the fact that he's shooting really well (better than any of his previous seasons), turning it over less and averaging more assists per game, I guess.

You are correct that he is not settling for more 2pt jumpers, but I don't think it's the absence of calls that is leading to less FTA. Grayson is not taking it to the rim at even remotely the same rate as he did in years past. As a sophomore, almost 33% of Grayson shots were at the rim. This year is about 18%. I think part of that is a conscious choice to save his body and part of it is having two beasts down low to dump it off to.

His usage is down quite a bit as well which is probably impacting his scoring. I am really happy with what Grayson is doing this year.

FerryFor50
11-30-2017, 02:26 PM
You are correct that he is not settling for more 2pt jumpers, but I don't think it's the absence of calls that is leading to less FTA. Grayson is not taking it to the rim at even remotely the same rate as he did in years past. As a sophomore, almost 33% of Grayson shots were at the rim. This year is about 18%. I think part of that is a conscious choice to save his body and part of it is having two beasts down low to dump it off to.

His usage is down quite a bit as well which is probably impacting his scoring. I am really happy with what Grayson is doing this year.

I feel like his drives are getting cut off more by defenders having more physical freedom on GA, but it could be that he's trying to save his body. The 2 physical beasts aspect is probably a factor, too, as they are clogging the lane a bit more now, so there's not as much room to operate.

What was his "shots at the rim %" last season?

azzefkram
11-30-2017, 02:33 PM
I feel like his drives are getting cut off more by defenders having more physical freedom on GA, but it could be that he's trying to save his body. The 2 physical beasts aspect is probably a factor, too, as they are clogging the lane a bit more now, so there's not as much room to operate.

What was his "shots at the rim %" last season?

About 19%.

crdaul
11-30-2017, 02:42 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get the bug out of his butt....

devildeac
11-30-2017, 02:46 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get his head out of his butt...

Minor correction.

What a %$#^head. (doyel, not you :o)

COYS
11-30-2017, 02:50 PM
It's something you see a lot from freshman. Surprisingly, Carter is the only one that I've seen this with amongst our talented freshman. Yesterday, there was one foul he had where Davis was being very aggressive on the offensive end. Carter - either thinking it was too aggressive or not liking any of it - pushed back hard at it was called as a foul (and it was certainly a foul). This isn't the first time he's done something like that. The Sparty play was another one. I think it absolutely warranted a foul. It wasn't understandable from a basketball perspective; he got baited into it and fell for the trap. If a Duke player did that, we'd have called it very smart.

There are clearly questionable calls on our players. However, whenever Carter gets called for a foul, I've noticed that it's definitely a foul. If he can reign in that chippiness, I think he'd be so much better.

I guess just see things pretty differently. He's had one instance of responding poorly to chippy play (the sparty game) and even that wasn't really that bad (as I mentioned before, he didn't throw an elbow. he just flailed his arm and caught the sparty player with an elbow). Also, I already agreed that the foul deserved the flagrant call. I would never dispute that. Again, other Duke players have done worse (Justise and Gerald come to mind) without concern that they are chippy players. Other players did an excellent job walking the line between smart and chippy/dirty (JJ's frequent shirt tugs on opposing defenders comes to mind . . . he baited quite a few defenders into dumb fouls when he was the real perpetrator).

The play you mentioned from the Indiana game last night is, to me, an example of a freshman who plays a physical style figuring out when not to be quite so physical. Perhaps frustration foul is another term that would apply (of which many Duke players have been guilty of countless times). "Chippy" implies some sort of dirty play, which I don't see as a problem for Wendell at all. Instead I see a guy who takes a beating and gives a beating in the post, racks up a few too many cheap fouls battling in the paint, but has been able to make key contributions despite adjusting to the college game and college refs. And, again, other Duke players have done similar things far more blatantly (Matt Jones and Tyler Thornton responded to physical play with a number of hard, "don't mess with me" fouls in their time at Duke that are beyond anything Wendell has done) without us worrying about them being too "chippy."

Perhaps this is simply a disagreement over semantics. I don't think Wendell is "chippy". I think he's a physical player and a freshman big man . . . which is a recipe for accumulating fouls . . . especially against experienced opposing players. I don't see anything dirty or chippy in his play. And I don't really thing the flagrant foul against the Sparty player is really anything to be concerned about. I mean, he didn't even really throw his elbow. He just flailed his arm in reaction to having his jersey pulled from behind and his elbow happened to catch the Sparty player's nose. It was ill-advised and deserving of a foul. But it hardly seems like a habit. And if his elbow had merely made contact with the air, I'm not sure we'd even be having this conversation.

tbyers11
11-30-2017, 02:57 PM
If wins and losses were all that counted, we'd all be fans of the RPI. Based on rating, Duke has seriously underachieved in three games so far (Southern, Portland State, and Indiana). Kansas, for example, has blown out every opponent except Kentucky, who they beat by approximately the expected amount. Based on any computer model, Kansas should be ahead of Duke.



I agree that Duke seriously underachieved against Southern. However, I will disagree that we seriously underachieved against Portland St and Indiana. Now we may have seriously underachieved for portions of the game but KenPom only looks at final scores. KP predicted us to beat Portland St by 20 and we beat them by 18. KP predicted us to beat Indiana by 9 and we beat them by 10.

We haven't seriously overachieved like Kansas has (against its mediocre to poor competition) and that is why they are #1, but we haven't seriously underachieved KP predictions in any game except Southern.

Troublemaker
11-30-2017, 02:58 PM
Minor correction.

What a %$#^head. (doyel, not you :o)

For some reason, and it may just be my good mood because Duke won 9 games in 20 days, I didn't mind Doyel there. He's sort of adding to Coach K's legend, like the Coach K version of the Bagley / Chuck Norris thread.

I mean, I *wish* Coach K could actually affect games and scare officials like that. We could certainly have used a run of foul calls against South Carolina's physical defense in March.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 03:02 PM
I agree that Duke seriously underachieved against Southern. However, I will disagree that we seriously underachieved against Portland St and Indiana. Now we may have seriously underachieved for portions of the game but KenPom only looks at final scores. KP predicted us to beat Portland St by 20 and we beat them by 18. KP predicted us to beat Indiana by 9 and we beat them by 10.

We haven't seriously overachieved like Kansas has (against its mediocre to poor competition) and that is why they are #1, but we haven't seriously underachieved KP predictions in any game except Southern.

We've also played 9 game in 20 days with extensive travel, limited rest, and almost no practice. I did a quick scan of the top 50 on KenPom, and nobody else seems to have played 9 games yet. Most other teams have only played 6-8 games, and haven't traveled as much. Quite a few teams have only played 5 games to this point. I doubt Pomeroy's algorithm factors in travel/rest/schedule.

But I suppose it's fair to point out that we got some extra practice time this summer (albeit before Bagley came on board) because of the Dominican trip we were supposed to take. I have no doubt that extra practice gave us a leg up in those early season games.

ncexnyc
11-30-2017, 03:50 PM
For a team that is 9-0, there sure seems to be a lot of nit-picking going on.

I'd hate to see what this forum would look like if we pulled and Arizona last week.

sagegrouse
11-30-2017, 03:56 PM
We've also played 9 game in 20 days with extensive travel, limited rest, and almost no practice. I did a quick scan of the top 50 on KenPom, and nobody else seems to have played 9 games yet. Most other teams have only played 6-8 games, and haven't traveled as much. Quite a few teams have only played 5 games to this point. I doubt Pomeroy's algorithm factors in travel/rest/schedule.

But I suppose it's fair to point out that we got some extra practice time this summer (albeit before Bagley came on board) because of the Dominican trip we were supposed to take. I have no doubt that extra practice gave us a leg up in those early season games.

Will someone explain to me how "9 games in 20 days," with four in a row on the road, "limited rest," and "almost no practice" is good for a student-athlete -- either the first word or the second?

And next year we go to Maui for Thanksgiving, although we will presumably have a home game with the Big Ten.

TKG
11-30-2017, 03:57 PM
In the video entitled "Coach K's Reaction ..." on GoDuke.com, after MB dives for the loose ball Grayson can be seen clapping his hands and saying to his teammates, "That's what we need!"

I thought it was pretty cool and accurate.

CDu
11-30-2017, 04:33 PM
I feel like his drives are getting cut off more by defenders having more physical freedom on GA, but it could be that he's trying to save his body. The 2 physical beasts aspect is probably a factor, too, as they are clogging the lane a bit more now, so there's not as much room to operate.

The bolded is the single biggest (and probably only) reason Allen isn't getting to the rim as much (and is driving less). In each of the previous 2 seasons, we had very limited post play. Our "bigs" were either perimeter players (Ingram, Tatum) or post players who didn't command a post spot and thus were usually out setting screens (Plumlee, Jefferson, Jeter). Now, he has at least one big near the basket, sometimes two, and frequently both big defenders are remaining in the lane even if one big is away from the basket. That makes for clogged lane. And Allen isn't the most nuanced of drivers. So without the clear path once he beats his man, he's usually toast.

I don't think we've seen more physical freedom on Allen this year. In fact, he seems to be getting lots of those touch-foul calls in his favor. He just isn't going to the rim nearly as frequently, and there just isn't room as often when he does.

CajunDevil
11-30-2017, 04:34 PM
Saying Duke "seriously underachieved" in its win last night at Indiana is absurd. In that environment, 9 games in 20 days, with all of the travel involved, little to no real practice time, winning by ten, with 4 freshmen starters freshmen... was very impressive. Nothing underwhelming about it.

uh_no
11-30-2017, 04:35 PM
For a team that is 9-0, there sure seems to be a lot of nit-picking going on.

I'd hate to see what this forum would look like if we pulled and Arizona last week.

"If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

-David Cutcliffe

Or perhaps he's just a nitpicker.

Skydog
11-30-2017, 04:45 PM
For those wondering why kenpom has us at "only" 7th place and below teams like Kansas and Virginia it's easy to explain. I know most of you know this, but a few may not - Kenpom ranking is totally based on offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength. Win/loss record is not factored in. And the logic is pretty sound - because the team that ends up with more ppp than their opponent always wins.

Right now we are killing on offense (1st, 121.8/100) but mediocre on defense (46th, allowing 96.5/100). Kansas, otoh is 5th in both categories (off 117.8, def 89.5). So while we are scoring 4 more points per 100 we are unfortunately also giving up 7 more points. So our net win probability against a hypothetical average opponent is considered a little lower than for Kansas.

I also think this represents reality. This team shows a lot of heart and is great on offense but still very suspect defensively. To be honest we a bit lucky to have our current 9-0 record and I believe our defensive woes will come back to bite us in a few games. The only alternative is that our D really, really improves by the time ACC play rolls around.

But overall I think we are an amazing team especially given we are starting four freshmen. It's kind of a fun and stressful road at the same time to watch these guys. I absolutely love their attitudes - they all seem like such eager learners. Good thing - they have a lot to learn in front of them!

elvis14
11-30-2017, 04:50 PM
In the video entitled "Coach K's Reaction ..." on GoDuke.com, after MB dives for the loose ball Grayson can be seen clapping his hands and saying to his teammates, "That's what we need!"

I thought it was pretty cool and accurate.

I'm just glad the refs didn't see Grayson's reaction. It would have sucked for him to be T'd up for clapping again (although they may have given the T to Daniel Ewing).

kAzE
11-30-2017, 04:54 PM
I also think this represents reality. This team shows a lot of heart and is great on offense but still very suspect defensively. To be honest we a bit lucky to have our current 9-0 record and I believe our defensive woes will come back to bite us in a few games. The only alternative is that our D really, really improves by the time ACC play rolls around.

I actually don't buy this. Our defense has been really good when it matters: in the last 5 minutes of games and overtime. That suggests that we don't actually have crippling deficiencies on defense, and it's more about effort and intensity, and giving that level of effort consistently from start to finish.

Here's an excerpt from a recent ESPN article about this subject:


Duke dominated the final five minutes like it did against Texas and Florida at the PK80 last weekend, pulling away for a 91-81 win over Indiana.

Against Texas, Duke went down 69-62 with 5:24 left. The Blue Devils ended up sending the game into overtime and outscoring the Longhorns 12-5 in the extra period. Against Florida, Duke went down 82-72 with 4:38 remaining. The Blue Devils finished the game on a 15-2 run to win by three.

On Wednesday against Indiana, the game was tied 76-76 with 5:09 remaining. Indiana didn't make another field goal, and Duke finished on a 16-6 run.

In the past three games, Duke's opponents have shot a combined 5-for-25 from the field in the last five minutes of games and overtime. In that span, the Blue Devils have outscored their opponents 56-19.

You don't just accidentally play great defense when the game is on the line. It's just a young team and they aren't as locked in for all 40 minutes as they can be.

English
11-30-2017, 05:04 PM
"If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

-David Cutcliffe

Or perhaps he's just a nitpicker.

"If you don't address the things you're not doing well on an internet message board, during a 9-game win streak with two top-10 wins and over 8500mi traveled, the winning will eventually stop."

- David Cutcliffe, probably

slower
11-30-2017, 05:13 PM
So does Grayson represent the new benchmark level on the Duke hate-o-meter?

Yes. For quite a while now.

I've never seen anything like it, nor do I hope to ever see it again.

devildeac
11-30-2017, 05:27 PM
For some reason, and it may just be my good mood because Duke won 9 games in 20 days, I didn't mind Doyel there. He's sort of adding to Coach K's legend, like the Coach K version of the Bagley / Chuck Norris thread.

I mean, I *wish* Coach K could actually affect games and scare officials like that. We could certainly have used a run of foul calls against South Carolina's physical defense in March.

1. Hacks like him continue to fuel the Duke hate with those moronic comments, neither of which (hate and comments) will likely disappear anytime soon (ever) anyway. <sigh>
2. Yea, amazing (:rolleyes:) that the SC comments were never made (nor were the Loovill's incessant hacking and grabbing ever mentioned either).

Listen to Quants
11-30-2017, 05:42 PM
I don’t know about the last line - we need both to play well; there will be lots of opportunities as Carter/Bagley can’t play 35+ minutes a night. I’m still more comfortable with Javin over Bolden on D.Probably you are right about Carter, but I think Bagley will manage it in big games. He doesn't foul as much as Carter, he's got a 'middle distance' body (not too heavy) and he is already over 35 often (last two games were 39 and 38 min).

Olympic Fan
11-30-2017, 05:46 PM
I agree that Duke seriously underachieved against Southern. However, I will disagree that we seriously underachieved against Portland St and Indiana. Now we may have seriously underachieved for portions of the game but KenPom only looks at final scores. KP predicted us to beat Portland St by 20 and we beat them by 18. KP predicted us to beat Indiana by 9 and we beat them by 10.

We haven't seriously overachieved like Kansas has (against its mediocre to poor competition) and that is why they are #1, but we haven't seriously underachieved KP predictions in any game except Southern.

Well, Duke did beat the Vegas spread against Indiana -- it was 8.5 points at gametime.

As for Doyel, forget him -- he's hated K since he was in Charlotte and K refused to cooperate on a book Doyel was writing.

WHOneedsSOX
11-30-2017, 05:53 PM
The bolded is the single biggest (and probably only) reason Allen isn't getting to the rim as much (and is driving less). In each of the previous 2 seasons, we had very limited post play. Our "bigs" were either perimeter players (Ingram, Tatum) or post players who didn't command a post spot and thus were usually out setting screens (Plumlee, Jefferson, Jeter). Now, he has at least one big near the basket, sometimes two, and frequently both big defenders are remaining in the lane even if one big is away from the basket. That makes for clogged lane. And Allen isn't the most nuanced of drivers. So without the clear path once he beats his man, he's usually toast.

I don't think we've seen more physical freedom on Allen this year. In fact, he seems to be getting lots of those touch-foul calls in his favor. He just isn't going to the rim nearly as frequently, and there just isn't room as often when he does.

Teams are also sagging really far off Duval and even Trent a little bit. There's absolutely no room to drive. I imagine teams are going to double Bagley and Carter a lot helping off Duval since his shot is pretty poor.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 06:03 PM
For a team that is 9-0, there sure seems to be a lot of nit-picking going on.


IMO, it's not an issue of our team's record, it's an issue of how well they've played relative to their potential. This is a very talented team that has not been playing consistently at that level. I'm not sure how anyone could be consistently thrilled by our team's D.

jv001
11-30-2017, 06:09 PM
For those wondering why kenpom has us at "only" 7th place and below teams like Kansas and Virginia it's easy to explain. I know most of you know this, but a few may not - Kenpom ranking is totally based on offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength. Win/loss record is not factored in. And the logic is pretty sound - because the team that ends up with more ppp than their opponent always wins.

Right now we are killing on offense (1st, 121.8/100) but mediocre on defense (46th, allowing 96.5/100). Kansas, otoh is 5th in both categories (off 117.8, def 89.5). So while we are scoring 4 more points per 100 we are unfortunately also giving up 7 more points. So our net win probability against a hypothetical average opponent is considered a little lower than for Kansas.

I also think this represents reality. This team shows a lot of heart and is great on offense but still very suspect defensively. To be honest we a bit lucky to have our current 9-0 record and I believe our defensive woes will come back to bite us in a few games. The only alternative is that our D really, really improves by the time ACC play rolls around.

But overall I think we are an amazing team especially given we are starting four freshmen. It's kind of a fun and stressful road at the same time to watch these guys. I absolutely love their attitudes - they all seem like such eager learners. Good thing - they have a lot to learn in front of them!

How does Kansas strength of schedule compare to Duke's? Playing Michigan State, Texas, Florida and Indiana(on the road) it seems to me that has to be one of the top schedules in all of college basketball. And that's not even counting Portland State around 3,000. miles away. GoDuke!

Skydog
11-30-2017, 06:11 PM
I actually don't buy this. Our defense has been really good when it matters: in the last 5 minutes of games and overtime. That suggests that we don't actually have crippling deficiencies on defense, and it's more about effort and intensity, and giving that level of effort consistently from start to finish.

Here's an excerpt from a recent ESPN article about this subject:



You don't just accidentally play great defense when the game is on the line. It's just a young team and they aren't as locked in for all 40 minutes as they can be.

Fair enough - we can disagree. But from my side I've watched the sport too long to believe we can count on miraculous comebacks over and over.

I just think it's easy to forget that our comebacks from 16 and 17 points was a combination of things done well on our side (better defense, composure, great rebounding) but also a lot of things not under our control. There were several times our opponents didn't take advantage of opportunities --our D isn't why their 80% ft shooter misses a critical late game front end of a 1 & 1 and sometimes our D wasn't even the reason our opponents missed some shots they usually make. Nor did our D ensure how the ball bounces off the rim, where some deflected passes went, or how the refs rule on several calls. Yes we did our part to make those comebacks happen but we also had to have some good fortune (actually quite a bit) along the way.

There is an old sports adage "You aren't as good as everyone says you are when you are winning and you aren't as bad as everyone says you are when you are losing." I think that is so true and really applies here. The fact that we won both games after being way behind can easily lead to the illusion "we always had it under control." We didn't. And I hope the players understand that. That's not a criticism of the team - they are freshmen and have a lot too learn. Its just reality.

By the way - I'll also be on here defending the team against the overwrought woe that is sure to follow after we lose a game we should have won.

ncexnyc
11-30-2017, 06:21 PM
"If you don't address the things you're not doing well when you're winning the winning will eventually stop."

-David Cutcliffe

Or perhaps he's just a nitpicker.

What position do you hold on the Duke coaching staff? Please feel free to enlighten me.

ncexnyc
11-30-2017, 06:34 PM
IMO, it's not an issue of our team's record, it's an issue of how well they've played relative to their potential. This is a very talented team that has not been playing consistently at that level. I'm not sure how anyone could be consistently thrilled by our team's D.
What exactly is potential and at what point in time do we say when someone has lived up to that potential? Is it nine games into the season or is it at the conclusion of the season or somewhere in between?

Am I thrilled with the inconsistent defense? No, honestly I realize it could be better, but we are starting four freshman and I also realize that,so I'm willing to cut them more slack than it seems some of you are.

I've also seen people state that it's going to bite us in the rear somewhere down the line, well news flash for them. Something is eventually go to bite us in the rear, unless of course there are actually people out there who believe we are going undefeated this year.

Kedsy
11-30-2017, 06:51 PM
Saying Duke "seriously underachieved" in its win last night at Indiana is absurd. In that environment, 9 games in 20 days, with all of the travel involved, little to no real practice time, winning by ten, with 4 freshmen starters freshmen... was very impressive. Nothing underwhelming about it.

Well, you are quoting a response to a question about how Kansas and Villanova could be ahead of us in the Pomeroy ratings, and almost none of the things you mention are taken into account by Pomeroy's system. So maybe you're taking the quote, and its potential relative absurdity, out of context.


How does Kansas strength of schedule compare to Duke's? Playing Michigan State, Texas, Florida and Indiana(on the road) it seems to me that has to be one of the top schedules in all of college basketball. And that's not even counting Portland State around 3,000. miles away. GoDuke!

According to Pomeroy, our schedule is the 70th best schedule and Kansas' is 206th best. But Pomeroy thinks Kansas has achieved more against their schedule than Duke has against ours.

Jeffrey
11-30-2017, 06:54 PM
Kansas' is 206th best.

Explains why they almost always win their conference. Roy should have stayed there, no need to cheat.

Kedsy
11-30-2017, 06:58 PM
I agree that Duke seriously underachieved against Southern. However, I will disagree that we seriously underachieved against Portland St and Indiana. Now we may have seriously underachieved for portions of the game but KenPom only looks at final scores. KP predicted us to beat Portland St by 20 and we beat them by 18. KP predicted us to beat Indiana by 9 and we beat them by 10.

We haven't seriously overachieved like Kansas has (against its mediocre to poor competition) and that is why they are #1, but we haven't seriously underachieved KP predictions in any game except Southern.

Yeah, sorry, I guess I misapplied KenPom's rating-to-score system. Still, as you say, major underachieving against Southern and minor underachieving against Portland State would probably be enough at this point in the season to put us six spots behind Kansas, based on how they've pummeled most of their opponents.

-jk
11-30-2017, 07:31 PM
Explains why they almost always win their conference. Roy should have stayed there, no need to cheat.

And yet, he felt the need to bring his cheater in chief to unc...

-jk

jacone21
11-30-2017, 07:40 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get the bug out of his butt...

Does that doofus actually still have a publishing outlet? Or did that come from his farmersonly.com page?

Neals384
11-30-2017, 07:46 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get the bug out of his butt...

Fact check: it was only seven in a row. Carter was called for his third with the score 65-64. Then 7 consecutive fouls against IU, until Carter was called for his 4th with the score 75-75. IU made 3 layups and 2 dunks in that stretch. Morgan and Johnson got their 4th fouls in this stretch, but, score-wise, it was not the critical turning point in the game.

MarkD83
11-30-2017, 07:48 PM
Explains why they almost always win their conference. Roy should have stayed there, no need to cheat.

You sure he wasn't cheating there as well...he did bring his academic advisor with him to unc...(didn't see the post a few back from this.)

CDu
11-30-2017, 08:22 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get the bug out of his butt...

His tears are delicious!

azzefkram
11-30-2017, 08:38 PM
His tears are delicious!

I must spread around comments, but a spork-worthy post.

weezie
11-30-2017, 08:47 PM
Greg Doyel?! Where's that monkey rear been hiding himself?

He must be so happy for the clicks.

kAzE
11-30-2017, 08:52 PM
Fair enough - we can disagree. But from my side I've watched the sport too long to believe we can count on miraculous comebacks over and over.

I just think it's easy to forget that our comebacks from 16 and 17 points was a combination of things done well on our side (better defense, composure, great rebounding) but also a lot of things not under our control. There were several times our opponents didn't take advantage of opportunities --our D isn't why their 80% ft shooter misses a critical late game front end of a 1 & 1 and sometimes our D wasn't even the reason our opponents missed some shots they usually make. Nor did our D ensure how the ball bounces off the rim, where some deflected passes went, or how the refs rule on several calls. Yes we did our part to make those comebacks happen but we also had to have some good fortune (actually quite a bit) along the way.

There is an old sports adage "You aren't as good as everyone says you are when you are winning and you aren't as bad as everyone says you are when you are losing." I think that is so true and really applies here. The fact that we won both games after being way behind can easily lead to the illusion "we always had it under control." We didn't. And I hope the players understand that. That's not a criticism of the team - they are freshmen and have a lot too learn. Its just reality.

By the way - I'll also be on here defending the team against the overwrought woe that is sure to follow after we lose a game we should have won.

I actually agree with pretty much everything you said here. There was definitely some luck each of these comebacks (particularly the Texas and Florida games), but I think we've seen enough of a sample size at this point to observe that our team's ability to "flip a switch" in crunch time is a real thing. The eye test says our level of activity and intensity on the defensive end is noticeably better in those stretches, and the numbers say that we are capable of playing some stifling defense when properly motivated.

I think the thing I disagreed with in your original post was the idea that our bad defense is going to stay bad, and come back to bite us (I know you didn't necessarily say it like that, it's just how I interpreted it). It's absolutely the thing we need to work on the most, but I think given how young this team is, suspect defense early in the season should be expected. My argument was that given how good we've been in crunch time on D, I think this team actually does have great potential defensively. We've had such little practice since the season started, I'd almost be surprised to see a major improvement on D this early. However, I'm quite optimistic that we will improve over the next month, as the coaches have more time to go over film and teach these kids good defensive principles.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2017, 08:53 PM
I actually agree with pretty much everything you said here. There was definitely some luck each of these comebacks (particularly the Texas and Florida games), but I think there's enough of a sample size at this point where our team's ability to "flip a switch" in crunch time is a real thing. Our level of activity and intensity on the defensive end is noticeably better in those stretches.

Also, don't we get credit for wearing a team down both mentally and physically?

Hauerwas
11-30-2017, 09:00 PM
IU played a perfect game on their home court with a hostile crowd and we still managed to win by 10 in the final minutes. That just doesn't happen. I rewatched the game this evening and even though I knew we won I was still shocked at how well we dealt with adversity, poor officiating, our first road game, IU's unconscious shooting, and foul trouble to will a win. It's early in the season and a crap ton can happen between now and March, but this team seems to have a fight, desire, and toughness that "special" Duke teams have had in the past. They may not be the best defensive team around, but they don't flinch, and that's a hell of a quality. Down 4 with things going south, we found Bagley down low, then Tent made an incredible defensive play and all of a sudden we are up 1. Those two plays took grit, focus, and desire, and a refusal to lose. What else can you ask for?

Carter is overshadowed by Bagley but he played his best game of the season last night. I love his game. quiet, confident and a bit of nasty. Have we had an offensive rebounder who actually finishes like him? Sure, Zoubek et. al could grab a board and dish out for a 3, but Carter grabs it and just dunks it back. I love it.

Grayson played a sensational game as well. His step back 3 in the second half was a pro move and he made a couple tough mid-range jumpers that took so much strength to even pull off. He doesn't get the credit he deserves for the quality defense he plays.

Bagley. What do you say. He had a quiet 23 point game. Seriously? 23 points and he's not noticed, that tells you how great that kid is.

Duval had a solid game as well. His man to man D is getting better and his ability to find the cutting big on the pick and roll is a tremendous asset. He's unselfish, and he too has a bit of nasty to his game, which is what last year's team lacked.

Bolden played limited minutes but his presence on defense was a game changer. Dude is a true center. He made two back to back defensive plays in the second half that altered the game. I love his attitude and willingness to play a role.

DeLaurier and O'Connell played limited minutes as well but both contributed on both ends of the court. DeLaurier may be our best defender, he just makes things happen when he's out there.

Trent struggled a bit from the field but he never seems to take a bad shot. And, I love his steely calm.

This team may not win it all, but they are a joy to watch.

To win that game after the brutal travel schedule they've had is a testament to the heart, desire, and fight this team has. Bravo.

duke4ever19
11-30-2017, 09:17 PM
<We’ll see. I’m not ruling out this performance being a one-off, a fluke, the kind of thing I saw for years when I covered Duke for The Charlotte Observer. Duke routinely brings out the best in its opponent, and still wins almost every time. It’s remarkable, and it can’t be pawned off on the obvious officiating advantage the Blue Devils have gotten for years, one they received on Wednesday night as well.

Midway through the second half, with IU leading 63-59 with 11:36 left and Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski no longer coaching his team, but coaching instead the officials, this remarkable statistical anomaly happened:


Eight consecutive fouls went against Indiana. At Indiana.

By the time those seven minutes were finished, seven minutes late in the second half with a tiring Duke team committing zero fouls, Duke went from trailing by four (63-59) to leading by three (78-75). Grayson Allen hit a step-back 3-pointer — silencing for the moment a profane chant that Coach K, the former IU grad assistant under Bob Knight, wryly called “a new one that they never had when Coach Knight was here” — and it was over.

Eight straight fouls against Indiana. At Assembly Hall. What are the odds of that happening? Impossible, unless the team benefiting is Duke, and then it makes sense. Coach K, the winningest coach of all-time, with all those Olympic gold medals to boot, scares the hell out of college referees. I’ve seen it for years. Saw it again Wednesday night.>

The guy will never get the bug out of his butt...

The "Duke gets all the calls" line is really funny to me.

As for Greg Doyle, I'd just ask him if this (the bolded part of his comment) is supposed to be a complaint.

It sounds to me like Greg is saying our coach is so legendary and good at "working the refs" (as all coaches do) that the referees are too much in awe of him. That sounds like the referees problem, not Coach K's problem.

I just finished watching the Notre Dame vs Michigan St. game and both coaches were working the refs every bit as hard as K does. Izzo definitely jumps around and screams and holds his head in disbelief. I actually think Coach K is more composed than guys like Izzo.

So, Doyle's complaint (if we take it as legitimate), seems to be a complaint with the refs, not Coach K and Duke. He is essentially lamenting the Duke mystique and wishing it didn't exist and seems to be implying that Coach K should feel bad about any perceived advantage that comes with it.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-30-2017, 09:40 PM
The "Duke gets all the calls" line is really funny to me.

As for Greg Doyle, I'd just ask him if this (the bolded part of his comment) is supposed to be a complaint.

It sounds to me like Greg is saying our coach is so legendary and good at "working the refs" (as all coaches do) that the referees are too much in awe of him. That sounds like the referees problem, not Coach K's problem.

I just finished watching the Notre Dame vs Michigan St. game and both coaches were working the refs every bit as hard as K does. Izzo definitely jumps around and screams and holds his head in disbelief. I actually think Coach K is more composed than guys like Izzo.

So, Doyle's complaint (if we take it as legitimate), seems to be a complaint with the refs, not Coach K and Duke. He is essentially lamenting the Duke mystique and wishing it didn't exist and seems to be implying that Coach K should feel bad about any perceived advantage that comes with it.

I refuse to read his refuse.

TNTDevil
11-30-2017, 10:38 PM
For some reason, and it may just be my good mood because Duke won 9 games in 20 days, I didn't mind Doyel there. He's sort of adding to Coach K's legend, like the Coach K version of the Bagley / Chuck Norris thread.

I mean, I *wish* Coach K could actually affect games and scare officials like that. We could certainly have used a run of foul calls against South Carolina's physical defense in March.It's called a Jedi Mind Trick, bruh.

The Force is for Realz.

TNTDevil
11-30-2017, 10:43 PM
~snip~

I just finished watching the Notre Dame vs Michigan St. game and both coaches were working the refs every bit as hard as K does. Izzo definitely jumps around and screams and holds his head in disbelief. I actually think Coach K is more composed than guys like Izzo.

~snip~
As I stated last night on an in-game chat: "Coach K's smirk/smile is Old Coach K's snarl & curse."

dyedwab
12-01-2017, 01:58 PM
According to Pomeroy, our schedule is the 70th best schedule and Kansas' is 206th best. But Pomeroy thinks Kansas has achieved more against their schedule than Duke has against ours.

I don't know why this is true, but I look at this a couple of years ago and I think, that in Pomeroy's system, for elite teams in who don't lose more than a handful of games, unimpressive wins - like our versus Southern - really hurt. Like, had we blown out Southern like we were predicted to, we'd wouldn't be as "low" as we are.

Makes sense, really - as was pointed out, we beat Indiana and PSU basically by the margin predicted by KP, which are nice and all, but don't represent an over-performance

moonpie23
12-01-2017, 02:54 PM
let's dispense with the BS...if ANY shred of that was true, they would have called the foul made on boozer
.......

juise
12-01-2017, 03:35 PM
let's dispense with the BS...if ANY shred of that was true, they would have called the foul made on boozer
....

That game was played in Lexington, which is a whole different beast.

WVDUKEFAN
12-01-2017, 04:31 PM
A great win on the road in a very hostile environment. Carter and Bagley are phenoms. With that being said, my man Marques Bolden is starting to "get it" as well. A key block, put back and an aggressive steal were all keys to the win. Grayson Allen has faked a defender's nose off of his face the last three games in a row and knocked down a triple. Tre needs to forget about the three ball and drive the lane. WHEN the defense comes together and plays a solid 40 minutes, Katy bar the door. This team will not be stopped.

BandAlum83
12-01-2017, 04:35 PM
I actually don't buy this. Our defense has been really good when it matters: in the last 5 minutes of games and overtime. That suggests that we don't actually have crippling deficiencies on defense, and it's more about effort and intensity, and giving that level of effort consistently from start to finish.

Here's an excerpt from a recent ESPN article about this subject:



You don't just accidentally play great defense when the game is on the line. It's just a young team and they aren't as locked in for all 40 minutes as they can be.

Are the Blue Devils really playing a next level NBA game? Don't expend too much on defense until it matters in the 4th quarter?

Maybe they are really just that good!

BandAlum83
12-01-2017, 04:36 PM
"If you don't address the things you're not doing well on an internet message board, during a 9-game win streak with two top-10 wins and over 8500mi traveled, the winning will eventually stop."

- David Cutcliffe, probably

This is why all the players travel with laptops!

uh_no
12-01-2017, 04:42 PM
I don't know why this is true, but I look at this a couple of years ago and I think, that in Pomeroy's system, for elite teams in who don't lose more than a handful of games, unimpressive wins - like our versus Southern - really hurt. Like, had we blown out Southern like we were predicted to, we'd wouldn't be as "low" as we are.

Makes sense, really - as was pointed out, we beat Indiana and PSU basically by the margin predicted by KP, which are nice and all, but don't represent an over-performance

he actually tempers results against extremely mismatched opponents in order to fight the "wisconsin effect"

A close game against a really bad opponent will hurt somewhat, but the difference between 17 points and 30 points against southern should be pretty small.

the relatively close game against texas probably hurt us the most, given an OT game is effectively a tie (I forget if KP includes OT data or not...)



The problem is that teams above us have either
a) not really played the quality we have (kansas, nova, virginia) and have blown the pants off them or
b) have beaten a quality opponent by more than any of our wins (michigan st, with huge wins over ND and UNC, despite a close loss to duke)

Ultimately, it's hard to really take much stock in KP rankings at this point for two reasons:
1) there is still quite a bit of influence from his preseason rankings....though we appear to be validating them more than anything.
2) the diversity in qualities of schedules is too great. the class A teams above will get some quality opponents against which to show their mettle, and the class B teams almost assuredly won't blow the pants off every quality team they play

WSU has some games this month which should show whether they are legit this year or not.

We just need to get on gettin on....we have plenty of opportunities to put in good performances (read: efficient..we're already winning them all....) against top teams....which will cause us to creep up.

DukieInBrasil
12-01-2017, 05:00 PM
A great win on the road in a very hostile environment. Carter and Bagley are phenoms. With that being said, my man Marques Bolden is starting to "get it" as well. A key block, put back and an aggressive steal were all keys to the win. Grayson Allen has faked a defender's nose off of his face the last three games in a row and knocked down a triple. Tre needs to forget about the three ball and drive the lane. WHEN the defense comes together and plays a solid 40 minutes, Katy bar the door. This team will not be stopped.

In general i like that Bolden appears to be playing better, but he didn't have a put back vs IU. That steal and dive on the floor were a key turning point in the game, to me. Huge props to Bolden for doing what i had criticized him for not doing just a week ago.

tbyers11
12-01-2017, 05:00 PM
he actually tempers results against extremely mismatched opponents in order to fight the "wisconsin effect"

A close game against a really bad opponent will hurt somewhat, but the difference between 17 points and 30 points against southern should be pretty small.

the relatively close game against texas probably hurt us the most, given an OT game is effectively a tie (I forget if KP includes OT data or not...)



The problem is that teams above us have either
a) not really played the quality we have (kansas, nova, virginia) and have blown the pants off them or
b) have beaten a quality opponent by more than any of our wins (michigan st, with huge wins over ND and UNC, despite a close loss to duke)

Ultimately, it's hard to really take much stock in KP rankings at this point for two reasons:
1) there is still quite a bit of influence from his preseason rankings...though we appear to be validating them more than anything.
2) the diversity in qualities of schedules is too great. the class A teams above will get some quality opponents against which to show their mettle, and the class B teams almost assuredly won't blow the pants off every quality team they play

WSU has some games this month which should show whether they are legit this year or not.

We just need to get on gettin on...we have plenty of opportunities to put in good performances (read: efficient..we're already winning them all...) against top teams...which will cause us to creep up.

Very good explanation of KenPom as I understand it. Especially that it's too early to put much stock in KP ratings due to schedule strength variance and preseason weighting

One question that I am unsure of. I know a few years ago that he tempered results on the positive side against mismatched teams (Wisconsin beating a team by 40 that they were supposed to beat by 20 is not treated the same as Wisconsin beating a team by 21 that they were supposed to beat by 1). However, I didn't think he made any adjustments on the flip side (Duke only beating Southern by 17 when it was supposed to be 34). I don't recall exactly though.

COYS
12-01-2017, 05:15 PM
the relatively close game against texas probably hurt us the most, given an OT game is effectively a tie (I forget if KP includes OT data or not...)




If I'm not mistaken, the Indiana game actually "hurt" us the most in terms of KenPom rankings. While we were incredibly efficient on offense, we also allowed Indiana to score efficiently against us. In fact, Indiana scored more efficiently against us than any other team we've played this season.

However, just as you say, we have plenty of opportunities to hold a good team down on the defensive end. The next stretch of our schedule is pretty soft, but beginning with our Jan 15th game @Miami, we will play 10 games against KenPom top 50 competition over the rest of the regular season before the ACCT even starts.

MChambers
12-01-2017, 05:32 PM
the relatively close game against texas probably hurt us the most, given an OT game is effectively a tie (I forget if KP includes OT data or not.)

Pretty sure he does, because it has predictive value:

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-predictive-value-of-overtime-margin/

tbyers11
12-01-2017, 05:49 PM
If I'm not mistaken, the Indiana game actually "hurt" us the most in terms of KenPom rankings. While we were incredibly efficient on offense, we also allowed Indiana to score efficiently against us. In fact, Indiana scored more efficiently against us than any other team we've played this season.

However, just as you say, we have plenty of opportunities to hold a good team down on the defensive end. The next stretch of our schedule is pretty soft, but beginning with our Jan 15th game @Miami, we will play 10 games against KenPom top 50 competition over the rest of the regular season before the ACCT even starts.

KPom is all about net efficiency margin. We outscored Indiana by 10 on 69 possessions. He predicted us to outscore them by 9. The exact number of possessions in the projections is erased after the game is played when the actual number of possessions is added. However, based on the pace of the 2 teams it was probably 69 or 70. So we got a very slight bump after the Indiana game because our net efficiency per possession was higher than predicted.

uh_no
12-01-2017, 05:50 PM
Very good explanation of KenPom as I understand it. Especially that it's too early to put much stock in KP ratings due to schedule strength variance and preseason weighting

One question that I am unsure of. I know a few years ago that he tempered results on the positive side against mismatched teams (Wisconsin beating a team by 40 that they were supposed to beat by 20 is not treated the same as Wisconsin beating a team by 21 that they were supposed to beat by 1). However, I didn't think he made any adjustments on the flip side (Duke only beating Southern by 17 when it was supposed to be 34). I don't recall exactly though.

So i went looking for the blog post explaining it, and if you google "kenpom wisconsin effect", the first hit is a post i made on DBR 4 years ago! I am amused!

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?32075-ding-dong-the-wisconsin-effect-is-dead-at-least-to-kenpom


anyway, here is the actual post:

https://kenpom.com/blog/pomeroy-ratings-version-2-0/

the killer quote being


The result is that games perceived by the system as big upsets get the most weight, while the influence of expected lopsided wins is minimized.

I'm not implementing it, and he doesn't go into too much detail, but I know this:

each game has a weight....usually determined by how recent it is. It seems this weight is adjusted now based on the relative rank of the teams and the output.

1) if a team is ranked way ahead of A and performs way better than A, then the game will have little effect.
2) if a team is ranked way ahead of A and does not perform way better than A, the weight approaches normal
3) if a team is ranked similar to A, then the weight is normal

So were I implementing something like this, I would need to
1) have a metric that represents difference in ability...probably just (difference in rating / some constant) ^ some other constant
2) have a metric that represents how much worse the better team performed relative to expectation....probably just MAX(expectation - actual, 0)
3) combine the two!

Of course, we don't have any of his actual numbers....but what we DO know is

southern is expected to score 65 points against us given 69 possessions, and only scored 61. Given we did BETTER than we were supposed to against an outmatched opponent, I'm guessing that game factors little into our overall weight...given MSU/TX/UF are going to be very high weight games.

Now, where it becomes interesting is the teams that DON'T have any good games on their schedule...so if ALL your opponents make the games low weight, then they are still relatively impactful UNTIL you actually play someone. I expect a lot of movements as some of those teams play some real games.

Anyway, this is all just guesswork since KP's algorithm is ultimately secret

pfrduke
12-01-2017, 06:15 PM
southern is expected to score 65 points against us given 69 possessions

What are you basing this on? The projection for the Duke-Southern game was 95-61 Duke (can't tell the number of possessions, but given that we were projected to score 95, I'm guessing it was projected to be at least 70).

uh_no
12-01-2017, 06:20 PM
What are you basing this on? The projection for the Duke-Southern game was 95-61 Duke (can't tell the number of possessions, but given that we were projected to score 95, I'm guessing it was projected to be at least 70).

apologies...I did the math wrong...it should have been closer to 58/59....which would mean that the game would have had marginally more impact on duke's rating than it might have....but I expect not too too much given the games we have vs florida/MSU/tx.