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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs. Michigan St (Tue, 11/14, 7pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



JBDuke
11-11-2017, 09:28 PM
Duke travels to Chicago to take on Michigan State in the Champions Classic next Tuesday. Broadcast is on ESPN at 7 pm ET. A nice early test for these young Blue Devils.

MChambers
11-11-2017, 09:31 PM
MSU is, like Kentucky, about as big as Duke is. Like Duke, MSU doesn’t have very good perimeter depth. Bridges is playing the three, but he’s really a college four. Unlike Duke, MSU has a fair amount of experience to mix with its freshman.

Should be a very inter game.

mgtr
11-11-2017, 10:03 PM
MY concern is fouls on the big guys. With Bolden being ill, he falls down below DeLaurier in ability. And then there is Vrank, who can fill in but will likely not make huge contributions. We have several competent outside players, so I am less concerned about that than the bigs. Backwards from what I thought before I saw them play
Well, lets see what happens on Tuesday, I think many things will become more.

JBDuke
11-12-2017, 09:58 PM
Back to the top for this thread. Big game Tuesday night! These are the top two teams in both polls.

TKG
11-12-2017, 10:03 PM
Izzo's team are, typically, physical. I am interested in how the young fellas react to physical play.

OldPhiKap
11-12-2017, 10:11 PM
Izzo's team are, typically, physical. I am interested in how the young fellas react to physical play.

Yup. Although K seems to own Izzo as much as I love Tom.

Frankly, really just want the freshman to get experience playing at this level. Result is secondary.

Troublemaker
11-12-2017, 10:38 PM
Don't overreact either way.

The 2015 team won at Wisconsin -- probably the best win of any team in the non-conference season -- and then proceeded to struggle mightily when ACC play began, losing to NCSU and then Miami at home. (Before obviously recovering to go on and win it all).

The 2010 team looked bad losing at Wisconsin in early December and eventually clicked in February and went on to win the ACC regular season, ACC tournament, and finally the national championship.

Unless it's an epic blowout either way, I would take the result of the Duke-MSU game in stride.

Don't get me wrong. This is a huge game, and I want to win badly. But what really matters is how we develop the rest of the season and manage the peaks and valleys to come.

ElSid
11-12-2017, 10:54 PM
Bridges gets all the hype, but MSU's biggest strength might be front court depth and skill. Jaren Jackson and Nick Ward et al will be fascinating matchups for our fearsome foursome of Bagley, Carter, Bolden and DeLaurier.

I wonder who guards Bridges when we're in man to man. I guess Trent? We might go big and have Bagley guard him at times. Could be a good opportunity for Javin, too.

Izzo teams are notoriously late blooming, but expectations are incredibly high this year, and I predict they'll play at a high level early and throughout the year. Only a 20 win team last season, so basically everyone is banking on an enormous improvement.

dukefan_828
11-12-2017, 11:17 PM
Having 4 wisdom's yanked in the morning so no class for two days, plan on studying fim then taking my pain meds (as perscribed ofcourse) to hibernate until around 6pm tuesday :cool::cool:


Grayson explodes for 27 on the big stage

Can't wait to see how bags and carter look against top tier competition.

Need Duval to continue to be the floor general he has thus far. Hoping for a 12pt 10ast 3to type game from him w/o foul trouble, would be huge!!

May need Javin "Baby Rodman" D to play extended minutes trading shooting for lock down D if Trent struggles to hang w Bridges

Also wish we where in the prime time 9:30 spot love the late games plus i dont want to be sulking while watching the BBN be brought to reality as i expect KU to dissect and dismantle this over ranked group if somehow our devils dont come out on top!!

Also wonder how much burn my personal fav project Bolden get's due to his untimely illness. Hope he is ready to go and has a breakout performance in atleast 15 min of play. I know the beast is in there he just lacks confidence & a nice performance on the big stage might be just the thing to do so.

Is there any way we red shirt V rank of is it not worth taking up a scholarship in the future at this point? Also don't see Jack White ever getting many minutes here could he be the next transfer??

LETS GO DUKE!!!!

COYS
11-12-2017, 11:28 PM
Don't overreact either way.

The 2015 team won at Wisconsin -- probably the best win of any team in the non-conference season -- and then proceeded to struggle mightily when ACC play began, losing to NCSU and then Miami at home. (Before obviously recovering to go on and win it all).

The 2010 team looked bad losing at Wisconsin in early December and eventually clicked in February and went on to win the ACC regular season, ACC tournament, and finally the national championship.

Unless it's an epic blowout either way, I would take the result of the Duke-MSU game in stride.

Don't get me wrong. This is a huge game, and I want to win badly. But what really matters is how we develop the rest of the season and manage the peaks and valleys to come.

Totally agree. I’d add that the 2010 team got blown out by Georgetown in late January in addition to losing to Wisconsin. They failed both of their high profile OOC tests.

ElSid
11-12-2017, 11:31 PM
Totally agree. I’d add that the 2010 team got blown out by Georgetown in late January in addition to losing to Wisconsin. They failed both of their high profile OOC tests.

Pretty sure we also looked alarmingly unathletic in 2010 against ASU. I remember getting extremely pessimistic after that game. Then we won the most satisfying and surprising championship.

By the way, did Doug Gottlieb get fired for his recent idiotic comments? I hope. Do not like that man.

LasVegas
11-12-2017, 11:41 PM
One thing I really like about this team is that they seem to have a badass attitude. Just a really tough and never back down look to them. I would say confident but it’s just more than that. It’s like a “ you come at me and I’ll go twice as hard back at you attitude”. I love it and I think it will be a battle on Tuesday. Win or lose, I would bet that this team doesn’t go down without a big fight.

Olympic Fan
11-12-2017, 11:42 PM
Is there any way we red shirt V rank of is it not worth taking up a scholarship in the future at this point?

There is absolutely, positively no chance that Vrank redshirts this year -- he's already played in a game.

Now, it's possible he suffers an injury and earns a hardship ruling, but that's not a redshirt.

BTW: The 2010 team did lose at Wisconsin and at Georgetown, but it did not lose all its high profile non-conference games. They beat No. 13 UConn (pretty much the same team that would win the 2011 national title) and No. 15 Gonzaga -- both in Madison Square Garden.

uh_no
11-13-2017, 12:02 AM
There is absolutely, positively no chance that Vrank redshirts this year -- he's already played in a game.

Now, it's possible he suffers an injury and earns a hardship ruling, but that's not a redshirt.

BTW: The 2010 team did lose at Wisconsin and at Georgetown, but it did not lose all its high profile non-conference games. They beat No. 13 UConn (pretty much the same team that would win the 2011 national title) and No. 15 Gonzaga -- both in Madison Square Garden.

you mean the 2011 uconn team that started 3 freshman (lamb, smith, oleander) and whose 6th man was also a freshman (napier)?

the 2010 team was still rockin' jerome dyson (whose injury arguably derailed the 2009 squad), sticks robinson, and gavin edwards.

so more changed than stayed the same.

still a great win for duke, of course, given how unathletic they were.....just not sure I'd use the 2011 uconn team as a barometer for that particular win.

UrinalCake
11-13-2017, 12:24 AM
Like others I'm not worrying too much about this game in the big picture. Similar to last year when we narrowly lost to Kansas so early in the season, but without the injury component. We know there's a long way to go and this team has a lot of room for improvement.

With that said, if MSU beats us pretty handily and it's due to all of the things we feared coming into the season - lack of outside shooting, foul trouble exposing our lack of guard depth, poor spacing - then I might start to think we have somewhat of a lower ceiling and have just been beating up on bad teams. OTOH if we win then we'll be flying high, and it wouldn't be crazy to think that given our schedule we could run it all the way up to 17-0 leading into our game at Miami. I know that's getting way ahead of ourselves, but Indiana looks bad after losing to Indiana State so our only non-awful opponents would be in the PKI.

dukefan_828
11-13-2017, 07:28 AM
There is absolutely, positively no chance that Vrank redshirts this year -- he's already played in a game



Thanks for reply and input. But There is a rule where you can still redshirt as long as you havn't played in a certain amount of games. the cut off is at somepoint in december, i believe. But im positive that his limited play in one game would not affect his ability to redshirt.

jv001
11-13-2017, 07:40 AM
Thanks for reply and input. But There is a rule where you can still redshirt as long as you havn't played in a certain amount of games. the cut off is at somepoint in december, i believe. But im positive that his limited play in one game would not affect his ability to redshirt.

You my be right but I'm with OLY on this one. I believe the # of games played comes into play if a player is injured. I don't know what that number is, but I'm pretty sure we had this discussion last season. OTH you may be correct. GoDuke!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-13-2017, 07:53 AM
You my be right but I'm with OLY on this one. I believe the # of games played comes into play if a player is injured. I don't know what that number is, but I'm pretty sure we had this discussion last season. OTH you may be correct. GoDuke!

98% sure you are spot on. Amile Jefferson was a different story because of injury. Once you step on the court for a game, eligibility is used.

fraggler
11-13-2017, 08:03 AM
Thanks for reply and input. But There is a rule where you can still redshirt as long as you havn't played in a certain amount of games. the cut off is at somepoint in december, i believe. But im positive that his limited play in one game would not affect his ability to redshirt.

Unfortunately, you are not correct in reference to a standard redshirt.

From NCAA.org (bolded for my emphasis):
"Redshirt: In Divisions I or II, redshirting refers to someone who is enrolled full-time at a school, but does not play for an entire academic year for the sole purpose of saving a season of competition. A redshirt does not play in any college games or scrimmage in a given sport for an entire academic year, even though that student is otherwise eligible. If you do not play in a sport the entire academic year, you have not used a season of competition. However, if you play in even one second of a game as a college student-athlete, you are not a redshirt."

You are thinking of the Medical Hardship Waiver (or medical redshirt) rules, which does have a maximum number of games allowed (30%) before it cannot be granted.

budwom
11-13-2017, 08:52 AM
There are injuries, and there are "injuries," though I don't see Vrank sitting out at all this season...

MChambers
11-13-2017, 09:07 AM
Bridges gets all the hype, but MSU's biggest strength might be front court depth and skill. Jaren Jackson and Nick Ward et al will be fascinating matchups for our fearsome foursome of Bagley, Carter, Bolden and DeLaurier.

I wonder who guards Bridges when we're in man to man. I guess Trent? We might go big and have Bagley guard him at times. Could be a good opportunity for Javin, too.

Izzo teams are notoriously late blooming, but expectations are incredibly high this year, and I predict they'll play at a high level early and throughout the year. Only a 20 win team last season, so basically everyone is banking on an enormous improvement.

In addition to Jackson and Ward, who are quite good, MSU has Gavin Schilling, a 6'9" senior who missed last year with an injury, but who played significant minutes in the previous seasons, Kenny Goins, a 6'7" senior, Ben Carter, a 6'9" sixth year grad transfer, and Xavier Tillman, a big freshman who was the #1 recruit out of Michigan last year. So the frontfcourt is very experienced and deep.

The starting guards are sophomores and are good. The backup guards have a lot of experience, but are erratic.

https://www.theonlycolors.com/2017/11/9/16628588/michigan-state-basketball-get-to-know-the-roster

CDu
11-13-2017, 09:21 AM
MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

ChillinDuke
11-13-2017, 09:28 AM
Thanks for reply and input. But There is a rule where you can still redshirt as long as you havn't played in a certain amount of games. the cut off is at somepoint in december, i believe. But im positive that his limited play in one game would not affect his ability to redshirt.

I believe you are referring to the cut-off for a medical redshirt. A non-medical redshirt has a binary cut-off: you either played in a game or didn't.

- Chillin

ETA - Others beat me to it.

DevilFalcon
11-13-2017, 09:46 AM
Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

ChillinDuke
11-13-2017, 09:48 AM
MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

Nice summary.

Early on, I'll be looking for how our freshmen, in particular, react to the size, length, and physicality of a top college team. Bagley is a gifted talent, but Nick Ward is big. Quite big. And if I remember correctly, he's great at carving out space and using his body around the hoop. If Bagley and/or Carter can navigate that sort of presence early, I think we'll be in great shape.

- Chillin

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2017, 09:50 AM
MSU will provide a nice early-season test for us. They have some interesting similarities.

Frontcourt: The Spartans are BIG. They Ward (6'8", 245lb soph) and Jackson (6'11", 240lb frosh). Both are capable scorers, but both appear to be foul-prone. Well, Ward is definitely foul-prone, while Jackson committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes in his first game. Jackson is a top-10 recruit and potential impact player inside. They also start a college PF at SF in Bridges (6'7", 225lb soph). Bridges is the star of the team, and might have been a lottery pick had he declared last year. He's a superb athlete whose skills trail his athleticism a good bit. He's a good stand-still shooter, great leaper, and strong finisher around the rim. But he's not great off the dribble and can be quieted by good defensive awareness. Matt Jones held him in check last year. Off the bench, the Spartans bring Schilling (6'9", 245lb fifth-year senior) as the primary big. Schilling is basically a serviceable backup, not an impact player. He's minutes-filler in case of foul trouble to the starters. Bridges will also rotate up to PF when one or both of the starting bigs sit. In case of emergency, Tillman (6'8", 260lb frosh) can be used sparingly.

Wings: Bridges technically starts on the wing, though as noted above he'll also play PF. Alongside Bridges starts Langford (6'5", 210lb soph). Langford is a terrific shooter (41.6 3pt %; 49.7 fg%) and role player for the Spartans. Behind those two is McQuaid (6'4", 200lb junior). McQuaid is a decent shooter as well.

PG: Winston (6'0", 185lb soph) is the starter. He's a flashy passer and playmaker who averaged 5.2 apg last year. Not much size, and not a great defender though. Behind him is Nairns (5'10", 175lb senior), who can pass but not much else.

The Spartans are big, but not necessarily very deep. They'll play 8, although the dropoff from the top 4-5 to the next 3-4 is pretty substantive (not unlike Duke). Especially in the frontcourt. And aside from Bridges and Jackson, the team lacks punch offensively. Like Duke, they don't have a ton of shooters. If Winston and McQuaid are hitting, they have some versatility, but it's really Bridges and Langford from the perimeter.

On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

This is going to be one helluva game. Coach K has Izzo's number, but I think that's a product of a) Coach K is a better early-season coach who knows his personnel really well, b) Duke often has more talent, and c) defenses are still trying to understand their potential (or lack thereof) in the early season and hence there is a slight over-reliance on offense.

This year, I think MSU and Duke match-up really well. As you said, Duke likely has an advantage at the 1, 2, 4, and 5. But the 3? I think Trent is great, but Miles is a beast. I think Miles, Brunson, and Colson are the best players in America based on last season (I'd add Grayson if I took the whole body of work rather than last year). Duke has an upgrade over MSU in the starting 5, but I'd go with MSU on the bench. And hopefully it won't get to that.

I hope Duke wins, but I'm more curious about the following questions:

1) Can Trevon still be uber effective against high-caliber teams?
2) Will Marvin's fast-twitch "kangaroo" tactics of getting his own missed shot work?
3) Will Javin/Marques provide solid support off the bench?
4) Can we keep the non-Gary/Grayson 3s to a minimum cus the rest of the team is terrible at 3s?

Troublemaker
11-13-2017, 10:03 AM
Some miscellany:

Not that this matters, but ESPN's experts loved Michigan St in their preseason predictions (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21288556/predicting-college-basketball-final-four-national-champion-coach-year-player-year), as the Spartans and Miles Bridges were easily the most popular picks for national champion and NPOY. Along the same lines, MSU was also the most heavily bet team to win it all by the public, according to this ESPN Chalk story (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/21351606/duke-blue-devils-favored-win-national-title-michigan-state-spartans-generating-buzz). (Not trying to start a disrespected #1 angle -- I mean, who cares? But thought these were interesting to note.)

I do think if Grayson has a big game and Bridges falters, it won't be forgotten by NPOY voters later on. I'll be rooting hard for that to happen.

The Spartans start 4 sophomores and a freshman. So while analysts will be correct when they say MSU has an experience advantage, and that experience advantage may well play a role in deciding the outcome, gosh, they are a pretty young team, too.

DevilYouKnow
11-13-2017, 10:31 AM
If we lose the game against MSU tomorrow night, our season is over.

:p

DukieInBrasil
11-13-2017, 10:31 AM
one of the concerns i have for this game is: How will Bagley's fantastic play so far translate to a taller, tougher opponent? Utah Valley had a couple of big dudes, and Mangyak (sp?) had a stellar game, and they were able to make some of Bagley's forays into the paint a bit too adventurous. Bagley took some misguided shots, which he was often able to offensively rebound and put back in, and i get the feeling that those same shot-rebound-score opportunities won't be available against a bigger, more talented and experienced frontcourt. I'll be looking for Bagley to be a bit smarter in recognizing that some of those off-balance among the trees shots aren't going to be effective and to look for other bigs around the basket or to redirect the ball. Fortunately for Duke, he's been pretty good at both of those so far.
I'll also be looking for Duval's passing game to tighten up a bit. He's been beyond fantastic so far, as some of those long outlet passes have hit guys fully extended for no-dribble layups. Some of those outlet passes may look enticing against MSU, but MSU has more length and athleticism than either Elon or USU, so if Trevon doesn't read the defense correctly some of those passes could get picked off. As i said, he's been great so far, and this game will be a great indicator for how advanced his court awareness is/not.
I get the sense from Carter that his post-play awareness is just so advanced that he won't be bothered too much by a shift from mid- to major opponents. He might not put up gaudy numbers, but i bet he'll be solid and efficient.
Trent is another big question mark for me. He's been a smart shooter and has shown the ability to finish at the rim, shoot the 3 and score in midrange, so i'll be looking for his situational awareness to assess whether he indeed has quality shots or not. All indications so far are that he's not a ball-stopping shooter.

So far, we've gotten a strong indication that we'll extensively use 7 guys (starters + Javin and Marques), so it'll be interesting to see who else gets called upon. I get the sense that we'll see J-Gold for at least a couple of minutes in the 1st half, if not more. I also suspect we may have an O'Connell sighting in the 1st half as well. J-Gold has done a competent job of handling the backup PG duties and i have a hunch that K will want to get a look at his composure on a bigger stage. Alex has brought an amazing level of energy to the court in his appearances so far, and has looked to make plays rather than just score, and that is what K loves. So i'm guessing we'll see 9 guys get some run vs MSU, and maybe a brief appearance from Vrank if we have foul trouble among the trees, but i don't really see any of the other wing/guard players (J-White, J-Rob, J-Tuck) getting minutes in this game.

Troublemaker
11-13-2017, 10:35 AM
Like others I'm not worrying too much about this game in the big picture. Similar to last year when we narrowly lost to Kansas so early in the season, but without the injury component. We know there's a long way to go and this team has a lot of room for improvement.

With that said, if MSU beats us pretty handily and it's due to all of the things we feared coming into the season - lack of outside shooting, foul trouble exposing our lack of guard depth, poor spacing - then I might start to think we have somewhat of a lower ceiling and have just been beating up on bad teams. OTOH if we win then we'll be flying high, and it wouldn't be crazy to think that given our schedule we could run it all the way up to 17-0 leading into our game at Miami. I know that's getting way ahead of ourselves, but Indiana looks bad after losing to Indiana State so our only non-awful opponents would be in the PKI.

I wouldn't lower our ceiling over a bad shooting day. Those days are going to occur, and if it happens tomorrow, we'll likely lose, yes (unless MSU evens it out with their own bad shooting day). But all the top contenders -- MSU, Arizona, Villanova, etc -- will be susceptible to losing if they have a bad shooting day against another top contender. It takes luck to win it all.


Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

Hope you're right. Whether it's rational or not (and I know it's not), I'm expecting a loss because Sparty is so due for a win against us.



4) Can we keep the non-Gary/Grayson 3s to a minimum cus the rest of the team is terrible at 3s?

Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

DukieInBrasil
11-13-2017, 10:43 AM
I wouldn't lower our ceiling over a bad shooting day. Those days are going to occur, and if it happens tomorrow, we'll likely lose, yes (unless MSU evens it out with their own bad shooting day). But all the top contenders -- MSU, Arizona, Villanova, etc -- will be susceptible to losing if they have a bad shooting day against another top contender. It takes luck to win it all.



Hope you're right. Whether it's rational or not (and I know it's not), I'm expecting a loss because Sparty is so due for a win against us.



Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

LasVegas
11-13-2017, 10:45 AM
plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

Right. 1/3 is fine. 2/10 or whatever is not. But I’m sure K is all over this.

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2017, 10:51 AM
Depends on what you mean. The way Utah Valley was giving our bigs space and daring them to shoot, I actually do want our bigs to take those threes. Because if you allow an opposing to player to play way off of you, he can disrupt your offense, e.g. closing down passing lanes to the interior by standing in the paint.

Utah Valley had a fairly smart strategy then, and I'm sure one that Izzo will replicate. Our Non-G/G 3pt shooting was 33% (not bad, not great) against UVU and 18% against Elon (and it would be 0% without Alex O'Connell).

If MSU provides our bigs with space (again, I think it's a very smart strategy), I would hope that we're smart with the ball and either get G/G open or rely on constant movement to get the bigs open down low. Another downside of having a big shoot a three is it hampers on of our greatest assets: offensive rebounding.

It's early in the season and I could be wrong on our non-G/G 3pt shooting, but I don't like what I'm seeing. It didn't help that Marvin celebrated his only 3pt shot of season like a 6'0" guard celebrates dunking in traffic (and you don't see Marvin celebrating a lot of dunks).

uh_no
11-13-2017, 11:12 AM
plus our offensive rebounding has been pretty awesome so far, so a missed shot could just become another possession. The 3s that Bagley, Carter and Delaurier (BCD) took in both games actually were all good takes and they all made 1, and are all shooting 33% on the season from 3. I'll take that.

To be pedantic, and perhaps avoid confusion somewhere, technically in stats accounting, an offensive rebound does not become a new possession, but rather an extension to the previous possession....hence offensive rebounds are subtracted from FGA when calculating possessions. Without this caveat, a team which had a ton of offensive rebounds would have a lower offensive efficiency than one who scored, perhaps slightly less often, but on their first shot most of the time (due to having a ton more possessions). In short, counting an OR as a possession would penalize a team for doing something they should be doing.

It doesn't have any material impact on the game...only stats.

91Duke
11-13-2017, 11:12 AM
I'm excited because I'm going to be at this game, which I expect to be highly entertaining and close -- but also nervous because I was also at the game against Kentucky in the United Center two years ago and that didn't turn out so well. Still, I think it's great to have this early season test.

sagegrouse
11-13-2017, 11:24 AM
To be pedantic, and perhaps avoid confusion somewhere, technically in stats accounting, an offensive rebound does not become a new possession, but rather an extension to the previous possession...hence offensive rebounds are subtracted from FGA when calculating possessions. Without this caveat, a team which had a ton of offensive rebounds would have a lower offensive efficiency than one who scored, perhaps slightly less often, but on their first shot most of the time (due to having a ton more possessions). In short, counting an OR as a possession would penalize a team for doing something they should be doing.

It doesn't have any material impact on the game...only stats.

The other reason is, if you have a possession, there should be an equal number of possessions for both team (plus-or-minus one). If you keep the ball is is anew shot clock but not a new possession.

kAzE
11-13-2017, 11:25 AM
On paper, I'd say we have a distinct edge at SG and PG, and an edge as well at PF and C, while MSU has the edge at SF. Off the bench, they have more proven options on the perimeter, while we appear to have an edge in depth and quality inside. This is one of the rare times in which I feel like we should win inside against MSU. Should be a tough game, and certainly one we could lose. Especially if Allen or Trent is cold. But hopefully we'll stifle them defensively and our outside shots will open things up for our bigs inside. Really looking forward to watching this one.

You know, I think the match up at the 3 will be the key to the game. I think Gary Trent is actually strong enough to cause Bridges some problems. Bridges has a couple of inches on Gary, but Gary might be the strongest guy on the team (it's between him and Wendell), so depending on how good his defense is at this point, it could actually be an okay matchup where Gary can slow him down just enough for us to get the win. Bagley will probably also match up with Bridges a decent amount, since he slides out to the perimeter when there are 2 other bigs in our lineup. I don't mind that matchup, either. I don't think Bridges can handle Marvin in the post.

Then again, we've been switching everything in our M2M schemes and playing a TON of zone, so it might not matter too much who matches up with who when we are playing defense. If they can't hit 3s, and we go to the zone exclusively, we might run away with it. We haven't put together a signature defensive performance yet, but it's coming. It will take some time, but our defensive potential is sky high.

Our backcourt should be the mismatch that wins us this game (and yes, I'm predicting a victory for Duke). They match up with us well up front, but the 1-2 punch of Grayson and Tre are a huge mismatch in talent over MSU's guards. If we can be disciplined and avoid excessive turnovers, I love our chances to come out with a big win. If we are playing well and sharing the ball, I firmly believe our offensive talent is good enough to overcome even elite defenses. We have 5 guys who can really do some damage on offense, compared to their 1 or 2. Our transition offense is the best I've seen since Jason Williams was still at Duke. They will have a much harder time defending us than the other way around. I'm very confident in our chances to win.

LETS GO DUKE!

duke79
11-13-2017, 11:32 AM
Maybe I'm overconfident, ok... I'm probably overconfident, but I see us winning without a ton of trouble here. I think we'll win by 15 or more. I know they're more experienced, but we're on track to be phenomenal. It's simple math: K > Izzo

I like your optimism and i hope you're right.......but who the hell knows? So many variables.....we could win easily but the young ones could also be nervous and not play well and it IS early in the season for such a young team. A big game from Grayson would be a HUGE help! I do like K over Izzo but the players have to play the game.

sagegrouse
11-13-2017, 11:39 AM
I remember when Kyrie Irving went up against preseason A-A Jacob Pullen of #4 Kansas State when Pullen was the SI cover picture for the hoops issue in this part of the country. No contest. Kyrie turned him inside out and held Pullen to 1-12 from the field, one assist and three turnovers. It was #1 Duke's fifth game of the season and established Kyrie as perhaps the best player in the country.

Maybe Marvin Bagley will make the same kind of statement against Michigan State.

MChambers
11-13-2017, 12:09 PM
Then again, we've been switching everything in our M2M schemes and playing a TON of zone, so it might not matter too much who matches up with who when we are playing defense. If they can't hit 3s, and we go to the zone exclusively, we might run away with it. We haven't put together a signature defensive performance yet, but it's coming. It will take some time, but our defensive potential is sky high.

Our backcourt should be the mismatch that wins us this game (and yes, I'm predicting a victory for Duke). They match up with us well up front, but the 1-2 punch of Grayson and Tre are a huge mismatch in talent over MSU's guards. If we can be disciplined and avoid excessive turnovers, I love our chances to come out with a big win. If we are playing well and sharing the ball, I firmly believe our offensive talent is good enough to overcome even elite defenses. We have 5 guys who can really do some damage on offense, compared to their 1 or 2. Our transition offense is the best I've seen since Jason Williams was still at Duke. They will have a much harder time defending us than the other way around. I'm very confident in our chances to win.

LETS GO DUKE!

I think MSU may be pretty vulnerable to the zone. Like us, they don’t have a ton of shooters, and certainly no one as good as Grayson. Of course, MSU is big, so offensive rebounds in the zone could be a big issue.

MChambers
11-13-2017, 12:12 PM
The Spartans start 4 sophomores and a freshman. So while analysts will be correct when they say MSU has an experience advantage, and that experience advantage may well play a role in deciding the outcome, gosh, they are a pretty young team, too.

But the bench is very experienced. Tum Tum (real first name: Lourawls) is a senior who’s played a lot, sort of Tyler Thornton-like, and Schilling, Goins, and McQuaid are very experienced. None are particularly talented, but they’ll do what Izzo wants.

Lar77
11-13-2017, 01:38 PM
I remember when Kyrie Irving went up against preseason A-A Jacob Pullen of #4 Kansas State when Pullen was the SI cover picture for the hoops issue in this part of the country. No contest. Kyrie turned him inside out and held Pullen to 1-12 from the field, one assist and three turnovers. It was #1 Duke's fifth game of the season and established Kyrie as perhaps the best player in the country.

Maybe Marvin Bagley will make the same kind of statement against Michigan State.

Remember how Kyrie took apart MSU that year? That's what I want.

Ultrarunner
11-13-2017, 01:46 PM
one of the concerns i have for this game is: How will Bagley's fantastic play so far translate to a taller, tougher opponent? .

MSU will be tougher, but they are not taller than Utah Valley. Nick Ward, while a load, gives up a couple of inches to Carter and Bolden. Jaren Jackson is a 6'11" freshman, so that's a wash with Bagley. They are taller with Bridges at the SF position.

Substitutions should be really interesting. This is a game where I could easily see Javin picking up 18 minutes of playing time if (BIG if) he can stay out of foul trouble. When Grayson rests, I'm expecting Trent to slide down to the SG slot with Javin coming in at the SF for defensive pressure on Bridges.

DukieInBrasil
11-13-2017, 01:52 PM
MSU will be tougher, but they are not taller than Utah Valley. Nick Ward, while a load, gives up a couple of inches to Carter and Bolden. Jaren Jackson is a 6'11" freshman, so that's a wash with Bagley. They are taller with Bridges at the SF position.

Substitutions should be really interesting. This is a game where I could easily see Javin picking up 18 minutes of playing time if (BIG if) he can stay out of foul trouble. When Grayson rests, I'm expecting Trent to slide down to the SG slot with Javin coming in at the SF for defensive pressure on Bridges.

UVU had those 2 guys, and really only Mangyak was mobile enough to hang with our bigs, but no other big guys. This MSU has substantially more tall, though not as tall, guys and they're all pretty strong and more talented on average than what UVU brought to the table. Looking back to Elon and the exhibition season, and there were no guys that could challenge our bigs, and i was including them in that observation.
But against UVU, Bagley looked pretty good.

kAzE
11-13-2017, 01:58 PM
MSU will be tougher, but they are not taller than Utah Valley. Nick Ward, while a load, gives up a couple of inches to Carter and Bolden. Jaren Jackson is a 6'11" freshman, so that's a wash with Bagley. They are taller with Bridges at the SF position.

Substitutions should be really interesting. This is a game where I could easily see Javin picking up 18 minutes of playing time if (BIG if) he can stay out of foul trouble. When Grayson rests, I'm expecting Trent to slide down to the SG slot with Javin coming in at the SF for defensive pressure on Bridges.

I imagine we will give Bridges several different looks on defense, with Trent, Bagley, or Delaurier probably matching up with him most of the time. It will be interesting to see if we continue to switch everything on defense. I think it's easy to get away with that against Elon or Utah Vallley, but Bridges would be a huge mismatch for Grayson or Trevon.

I think we will most likely use a ton of zone to keep him in check. Bridges is going to have a tough time finding room to operate in the paint, so I wonder if he will try to get it going from deep. He did not make a 3 in their opener, but shot 39% from deep last season on 144 attempts. He can make them, so we will have to play up on him out there.

Billy Dat
11-13-2017, 03:02 PM
As the Champions Classic enters it's 3rd full cycle, our greatest success has come against MSU (2-0) vs Kentucky (1-1) or Kansas (0-2). We are on a 2 game losing streak in this event, and Grayson has never played well in it. K's gaudy mark against Izzo seems unsustainable, but part of that success is, I think, due to the "styles make fights" dynamic of the programs. Izzo teams, to me, are always know as rebounding machines and Duke, under K, has always managed to win despite never being a dominant rebounding team.

As some others have said, I almost feel like we are due to lose against Izzo, but I also felt that way when we went up to the Breslin Center in 03-04 and whupped Sparty by 22. I don't have a good feeling about this one, but I don't think that feeling is rational so I am trying to banish it. At the very worst, it should be a pick-em. I haven't seen a point spread posted.

In addition to seeing the team play against equal competition, I am very curious about who performs "when the lights come on". This event is a HUGE stage...national TV, dozens of NBA personnel, NBA arena, massive media coverage...THE BIG TIME. Who is equal to the moment? Who will try and do too much? Will too much excitement and emotion lead to early foul trouble for someone in the starting 5?

Let's GO!

MChambers
11-13-2017, 03:43 PM
I imagine we will give Bridges several different looks on defense, with Trent, Bagley, or Delaurier probably matching up with him most of the time. It will be interesting to see if we continue to switch everything on defense. I think it's easy to get away with that against Elon or Utah Vallley, but Bridges would be a huge mismatch for Grayson or Trevon.

I think we will most likely use a ton of zone to keep him in check. Bridges is going to have a tough time finding room to operate in the paint, so I wonder if he will try to get it going from deep. He did not make a 3 in their opener, but shot 39% from deep last season on 144 attempts. He can make them, so we will have to play up on him out there.

Matchups go both ways, and Bridges isn’t used to chasing three point shooters on the perimeter.

whereinthehellami
11-13-2017, 03:48 PM
I also have a bad feeling in this one. Izzo is over-due. I am concerned with Duke's youth being in their first big time game, especially against MSU. I can envision early foul trouble for Carter and Bagley. Especially in man to man, particularly in regards to Bridges. I think this MSU team is different than their typical teams in that they will play at a higher tempo, they like to get out and run and are good at it.

I think the Duke freshman will have foul trouble problems, their first big lights and all. I think MSU is going to be a little too much, too soon for the Duke freshman. I think this is a statement game for Bridges, I don't think Duke can stop him.

With all that said, it will be a great experience for Duke and I'm excited to see it. Definitely what the young guys need right now.

budwom
11-13-2017, 03:49 PM
Kind of a no lose opportunity. If we win, great. If we don't, motivation to improve, maybe we get another shot at them in March. Just hope we play well.

Kedsy
11-13-2017, 03:58 PM
Matchups go both ways, and Bridges isn’t used to chasing three point shooters on the perimeter.

He mainly plays SF, right? Aren't most SFs in college today three-point shooters who run around the perimeter?

MChambers
11-13-2017, 04:03 PM
He mainly plays SF, right? Aren't most SFs in college today three-point shooters who run around the perimeter?

He will play SF this year, but it’s new for him. Last year he was a PF (or a “4” for the numerically inclined). This is new for him. He’s basically a college PF. So it could be that he’ll struggle a bit chasing guards or pick up cheap fouls. He’s a great athlete, and a hard worker, so he’ll probably be fine, but you never know.

Troublemaker
11-13-2017, 06:12 PM
It looks like Duke has opened up as a 1.5-point favorite: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

(As an aside, Kansas is a 4-point favorite against Kentucky tomorrow, probably in response to UK's struggles at home against Utah Valley and Vermont).

flyingdutchdevil
11-13-2017, 06:16 PM
It looks like Duke has opened up as a 1.5-point favorite: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

(As an aside, Kansas is a 4-point favorite against Kentucky tomorrow, probably in response to UK's struggles at home against Utah Valley and Vermont).

I kinda wanna bet heavily on Kansas. Kentucky just looks...meh. There is 0% chance his 50% 3pt shooting is sustainable.

Billy Dat
11-13-2017, 06:43 PM
It looks like Duke has opened up as a 1.5-point favorite: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

(As an aside, Kansas is a 4-point favorite against Kentucky tomorrow, probably in response to UK's struggles at home against Utah Valley and Vermont).

Interesting...how much do you think fan brand recognition is built into those spreads? To the casual fan, the Duke brand may be worth a couple of points pushing an even spread to 1.5. Ditto the Kentucky brand taking what should be, maybe, a 7 point spread and making it 4.

fidel
11-13-2017, 06:48 PM
I’m looking for Grayson’s leadership on this one. If he takes a ‘not on my watch’ approach to leading this team, I’ll count it as a win.

Lots to learn from the freshman.

Troublemaker
11-13-2017, 07:04 PM
Interesting...how much do you think fan brand recognition is built into those spreads? To the casual fan, the Duke brand may be worth a couple of points pushing an even spread to 1.5. Ditto the Kentucky brand taking what should be, maybe, a 7 point spread and making it 4.

With Duke-MSU, I sort of expect Sparty to be the public side, actually. I'll check ESPN Chalk tomorrow to see if I'm right, but MSU is a very popular pick to win it all, as mentioned upthread. Personally, I would've opened that game as a straight pick'em.

KU-UK interestingly opened at 2 and was quickly pushed out to 4 and is now 4.5. Oddsmakers don't tend to overreact to a couple of games, so I'm not surprised they opened it close. I would agree with you and FDD that there is probably value on Kansas here.

rickshawboycall911
11-13-2017, 07:24 PM
Bagley is going to run circles around Schilling lmao!

MChambers
11-13-2017, 07:36 PM
Bagley is going to run circles around Schilling lmao!

Schilling comes off the bench, probably mostly for Ward, and won’t match up with Bagley much. I expect the freshman Jackson to match up with Bagley.

duketaylor
11-13-2017, 07:37 PM
Yup. Although K seems to own Izzo as much as I love Tom.

Frankly, really just want the freshman to get experience playing at this level. Result is secondary.

Not concerned about who wins, but how the game is played and what we can learn from it. My non-Duke friends appear uninterested and call it an "exhibition" game. Can't say I disagree very much.

DavidBenAkiva
11-13-2017, 08:02 PM
I'd like to shine a spotlight on one of my keys to the game: turnovers. Last year, Michigan State was really bad at holding onto to the basketball. Like, really bad. They turned the ball over on 1 of every 5 possessions. That rate was the 301st worst team in the country out of 351. It was a team-wide issue. There were 8 (!) players on the team that averaged a turnover per game. Not surprisingly, this contributed to their mediocre offensive efficiency (1.033 pts per possession, #132 in the nation). It's hard to be efficient when you cough up the rock that often. The first game of the year for MSU did not seem to indicate that they have fixed this problem, either. In the opening win, MSU turned the ball over 21 times to North Florida. Every starter had at least 1 turnover with Nick Ward giving up the ball 5 times in 16 minutes.

It's a major area of concern for MSU. If Duke can get a number of quick buckets in transition, it makes the game that much easier. With the athletes on this Blue Devil team, MSU doesn't want to be giving Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval and Marvin Bagely III open lanes to the basket. That's something to look for from the first few minutes.

How has Duke done in the turnover game so far this season? Pretty good! It helps that Trevon Duval has 20 assists against a single turnover. But the team has a nearly 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio to go along with 21 steals.

Speaking of steals, another thing to notice is the play of Trevon Duval against their point guards, Cassius Winston and All-Name Team member Lourawls "TumTum" Nairns. Neither is particularly tall or blazingly fast. Duval has absurdly long arms for his size (6'3" with a 6'9"+ wingspan), which allows him to disrupt passing lanes in both man-to-man and in the zone. If he can make it difficult for MSU to swing the ball or initiative offense, the game can turn to Duke's favor.

Another player to watch will be Wendell Carter III. He's a big dude compared to his counterpart in the game, both taller (Carter is 6'10" while Ward goes 6'8") and longer (Carter has a 7'3" wingspan while Ward is at 7'2") than Nick Ward. Carter has been good at both blocking shots and generating steals from the post in his limited time on the court so far. If he can get Nick Ward to travel or deflect entry passes, it's off to the races.

On the flip side, I think keeping those two, Duval and Carter, out of foul trouble will be another key. It's hard to play aggressive defense when you're on the bench or afraid to pick up that 3rd foul in the first half. We've seen each of those two get a couple of early fouls so far this young season. Staying clear of the refs is a big area of focus from my seat.

Let's Go Duke!

subzero02
11-13-2017, 08:13 PM
If you don't think this game is a big deal to the players, you don't understand college basketball and the mindset of young players. I'm really interested in seeing how our freshmen perform on the big stage; particularly Duval, Carter and Bagley. I am not worried about Trent; i'm convinced he's a basketball playing robot from the future that was sent back in time to save humanity.

BoiseDevil
11-13-2017, 09:08 PM
MSU will be tougher, but they are not taller than Utah Valley. Nick Ward, while a load, gives up a couple of inches to Carter and Bolden. Jaren Jackson is a 6'11" freshman, so that's a wash with Bagley. They are taller with Bridges at the SF position.

Substitutions should be really interesting. This is a game where I could easily see Javin picking up 18 minutes of playing time if (BIG if) he can stay out of foul trouble. When Grayson rests, I'm expecting Trent to slide down to the SG slot with Javin coming in at the SF for defensive pressure on Bridges.

Great point, but one could also conclude...

going against Bolden, Carter, Vrank and Javin in practice is a tougher challenge than what Jaren goes up against.

OldPhiKap
11-14-2017, 07:39 AM
First big game day of the new season. Let’s go Duke!!!!

SkyBrickey
11-14-2017, 10:32 AM
I'm expecting MSU to exploit our inexperience playing team defense. I expect them to get a lot of easy baskets that won't be available against us later in the year. But as long as we keep our cool and keep moving the ball on offense vs relying on Allen or Bagley to take over, I expect us to come out on top. I think this team has loads of confidence and toughness. I expect it to shine through. 78-75 good guys.

BandAlum83
11-14-2017, 10:42 AM
I'm expecting MSU to exploit our inexperience playing team defense. I expect them to get a lot of easy baskets that won't be available against us later in the year. But as long as we keep our cool and keep moving the ball on offense vs relying on Allen or Bagley to take over, I expect us to come out on top. I think this team has loads of confidence and toughness. I expect it to shine through. 78-75 good guys.

I put the over/under on this game at about 160. I think duke is definitely scoring in the mid to upper 80s. So maybe 85-75. Grayson will be at the line a lot during the stretch until Izzo concedes with under a minute to play.

cbarry
11-14-2017, 11:33 AM
I think we will continue to dominate. We will make MSU look like Elon. They will have no answer for Grayson, Marvin, and Gary. Good guys by 20+!

COYS
11-14-2017, 11:37 AM
If Duke has an advantage in this game, it's on the offensive end. Izzo is fantastic, but K almost always rolls out a team with a better offense. Turnovers on offense have been a weakness for the Spartans both last year and early this season. That just happens to play into Duke's fantastic transition game. The Spartan's also haven't been great at shooting from the outside (although they were great in their opening game). Theoretically, Duke's defense should be able to stay relatively compact, which will be important. Miles Bridges is a beast, but Duke has the size and athleticism to at least contest his shots inside the perimeter. I think that plays to Duke's strengths as well.

On the opposite end of the floor, the Spartans are a talented defensive team, but they are vulnerable to talented guards. In Trevon (who, per KenPom, has been Duke's BEST offensive player thus far), Grayson, and Gary, Duke has size, strength, AND quickness that can cause the Spartan's problems. Also, while Duke doesn't have many shooters, Grayson and Gary have deep range and will help stretch the defense. Hopefully, we'll see Michigan State have to pick their poison: extend their defense to guard Grayson and Gary beyond the arc which risks their guards getting beaten off the dribble and limits the help they can provide on our big guys OR stay compact and give those guys open looks from the perimeter. I suspect we'll see a relatively compact Spartan defense at first, which means getting Gary and Grayson clean looks from three will be key to unlocking their defense.

It's going to be tough game, but Duke is one of the few teams that has the talent and athleticism to match up with the Spartans. I think Duke's diverse wealth of offensive weapons combined with Sparty's penchant for turning the ball over gives Duke a slight edge.

flyingdutchdevil
11-14-2017, 11:47 AM
If Duke has an advantage in this game, it's on the offensive end. Izzo is fantastic, but K almost always rolls out a team with a better offense. Turnovers on offense have been a weakness for the Spartans both last year and early this season. That just happens to play into Duke's fantastic transition game. The Spartan's also haven't been great at shooting from the outside (although they were great in their opening game). Theoretically, Duke's defense should be able to stay relatively compact, which will be important. Miles Bridges is a beast, but Duke has the size and athleticism to at least contest his shots inside the perimeter. I think that plays to Duke's strengths as well.

On the opposite end of the floor, the Spartans are a talented defensive team, but they are vulnerable to talented guards. In Trevon (who, per KenPom, has been Duke's BEST offensive player thus far), Grayson, and Gary, Duke has size, strength, AND quickness that can cause the Spartan's problems. Also, while Duke doesn't have many shooters, Grayson and Gary have deep range and will help stretch the defense. Hopefully, we'll see Michigan State have to pick their poison: extend their defense to guard Grayson and Gary beyond the arc which risks their guards getting beaten off the dribble and limits the help they can provide on our big guys OR stay compact and give those guys open looks from the perimeter. I suspect we'll see a relatively compact Spartan defense at first, which means getting Gary and Grayson clean looks from three will be key to unlocking their defense.

It's going to be tough game, but Duke is one of the few teams that has the talent and athleticism to match up with the Spartans. I think Duke's diverse wealth of offensive weapons combined with Sparty's penchant for turning the ball over gives Duke a slight edge.

I feel like this is true every year in the Duke OAD era.

But I agree, Sparty is scary on the defensive end. I really have no idea how this game is going to go; there are soooooo many unknowns on the Duke side of the equation.

I'll be watching Duval and Bagley most closely. I think the Jrs (Trent and Carter) are going to be solid, but not great. Allen will be Allen. But can Duval and Bagley rise to the challenge? Duval had, IMO, the perfect two games to start the season and Bagley is so much better offensively than I thought he'd be. Can they continue their insane play?

MrPoon
11-14-2017, 11:52 AM
It’s probably been mentioned further up thread but one key piece to this game to me is how it is officiated and which team adjusts accordingly. If Carter or GA picks up early fouls, that changes things really quickly. A near constant in life is young players fouling on D as they learn. MSU is more compfortable playing phisical and playing up to the line refs permit. Their experience off the bench is also meaningful. Our first five v theirs, I like our chances but as the game evolves, as it enevitably will, can the young guys adjust. This is where K will earn the win. Managing the unexpected and keeping the team moving in the right direction.

Others have said this already but I have a good friend who is BIG time MSU and the turnover issue is key. They are loose with the ball. Duke’s length in the passing lanes man to man and then in zone creates TOs. If they turn the ball over by a reasonable margin, Duke loves to run and punish TOs, that could be a big story.

I’ll also be watching rebounding. We are very large but the last game we were getting out rebounded at times. MSU may win the boards in total, can we keep it close or even win that battle? Could be key.

Devils by 8.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 11:57 AM
With Duke-MSU, I sort of expect Sparty to be the public side, actually. I'll check ESPN Chalk tomorrow to see if I'm right, but MSU is a very popular pick to win it all, as mentioned upthread. Personally, I would've opened that game as a straight pick'em.

KU-UK interestingly opened at 2 and was quickly pushed out to 4 and is now 4.5. Oddsmakers don't tend to overreact to a couple of games, so I'm not surprised they opened it close. I would agree with you and FDD that there is probably value on Kansas here.

It looks like Duke is solidly the public side actually, as 64% of tickets are coming in on us: http://www.espn.com/chalk/liveOdds

(In the other game, 84% of tickets are on Kansas).

Hopefully all the people backing Duke are correct.

COYS
11-14-2017, 12:13 PM
I feel like this is true every year in the Duke OAD era.



I think it's just true of Duke, in general. K basically always has elite offensive teams, whether the team is full of OAD's or four year players. Let's hope our OAD's and our four year player have excellent games tonight!

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 12:15 PM
Looking forward to seeing Grayson lead this young team tonight. He's really the only player on the roster with experience in this type of big college game, something I'm sure both he and Coach K realize. I'm anxious to see what type of performance he comes up with, as I can't see us winning without Grayson having a big game and maybe having a "Heisman moment" ("Naismith moment"?) that starts his NPOY campaign in style.

Philadukie
11-14-2017, 12:25 PM
I am not worried about Trent; i'm convinced he's a basketball playing robot from the future that was sent back in time to save humanity.

I feel like I'm watching an upperclassman when I watch Trent play.

scottdude8
11-14-2017, 12:53 PM
I watched a ton of MSU basketball last year being a Michigan fan (including an in-person blowout victory in the Crysler Center). A couple of more in-depth notes you might not find in the typical scouting report that people might find interesting:

—Tum Tum Nairn is one of the worst shooters I've ever seen as a guard at a major program. Big Ten teams designed their entire defenses around allowing/forcing him to shoot wide-open threes last season, and he still shot somewhere in the 20% range if I'm not mistaken. If Duke decides to play some zone, it wouldn't surprise me if it's primarily when Nairn is on the court. (Side note for the Crazies: I actually got into his head yelling at him about this from the student section last year, he turned towards me and yelled a little bit. Go after him about his lack of shooting prowess!)

—Ward is a load on the glass, but was prone to major foul trouble last year. And, while he's an upper classman, Schilling has always been an average player at best, so it's a huge drop off from Ward to Schilling off the bench. I hope Grayson and Duval attack Ward off the dribble early and often.

—Bridges is a great player, but he had a habit last year of falling in love with the three point shot, which while serviceable is not his strength. Again, I'm betting this might motivate Coach K to play some zone (it would make sense considering how much we played it against Utah Valley, imagining that as a tune-up for MSU). If we can force him to settle for outside jumpers it's a good sign.

—Matt McQuaid is a pure shooter off the bench, and last year was MSU's only source of consistent outside shooting (sensing a theme here? haha). If we run him off the three point line there isn't much else offensively he can do, and he's a defensive liability.

—In general, Izzo has an almost antithetical rotation system to Coach K: even in big games he almost always plays 9-10 guys at least 5 minutes or so. On one hand that keeps the big guys fresh, but it also should create lineups that we can take advantage of.

If anyone has any specific question about the MSU lineup I'm happy to try to answer them based off of my watching them as a B1G/Michigan fan. I actually think that they're overrated entering the year based solely on Bridges returning. Had he gone pro I don't think this is a top 15 team. So I'm bullish on our chances tonight!

kAzE
11-14-2017, 01:31 PM
Bridges is a great player, but he had a habit last year of falling in love with the three point shot, which while serviceable is not his strength. Again, I'm betting this might motivate Coach K to play some zone (it would make sense considering how much we played it against Utah Valley, imagining that as a tune-up for MSU). If we can force him to settle for outside jumpers it's a good sign.

It might not be his best strength, but he did shoot 39% from deep last year, which is really good, especially for a power forward. There are probably better guys to leave open out there.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 01:55 PM
I’m most worried about foul trouble and defensive rebounding. Utah Valley got too many offensive rebounds because of bad positioning. MSU will struggle to generate good first shots but has the size and skill to exploit our inexperience. I am also worried how Bagley responds to not be able to just go where ever he wants against smaller, less athletic players. He’s going to see a lot more contact and not have the room to manuaver as easily. Other than Carter, the physicality might force Duke to shoot too many 3s and be susceptible to a poor shooting night that should not be an issue this season. I would love for this game to resemble recent MSU games or even the game at Wisconsin in 2014-2015. I’m worried it will look more like the last two games in this event...

CDu
11-14-2017, 01:59 PM
It might not be his best strength, but he did shoot 39% from deep last year, which is really good, especially for a power forward. There are probably better guys to leave open out there.

Yep. Worth noting that both Langford (41.6% on 2.5 attempts per game) and Bridges (38.9% on 5.1 attempts per game) were both better shooters last year than McQuaid (35.0% on 3.5 attempts per game). Not sure I'd dare any of those 3 to shoot open 3s though.

Billy Dat
11-14-2017, 02:29 PM
KU-UK interestingly opened at 2 and was quickly pushed out to 4 and is now 4.5. Oddsmakers don't tend to overreact to a couple of games, so I'm not surprised they opened it close. I would agree with you and FDD that there is probably value on Kansas here.

It looks like Duke is solidly the public side actually, as 64% of tickets are coming in on us: http://www.espn.com/chalk/liveOdds
(In the other game, 84% of tickets are on Kansas).

A really helpful hardware store employee tried, and failed, to find me a matching part for a plumbing repair I am attempting. As I was thanking him, he said, "You got any tips for me?" I said, "Yeah, take Kansas plus the points tonight".


I feel like I'm watching an upperclassman when I watch Trent play.

It might not be his (Bridges) best strength, but he did shoot 39% from deep last year, which is really good, especially for a power forward. There are probably better guys to leave open out there.

As Duke_828 said on page 1, "May need Javin "Baby Rodman" D to play extended minutes trading shooting for lock down D if Trent struggles to hang w Bridges". The Bridges assignment seems to loom large. I agree that Trent seems more mature than his years would suggest, and he seems to have a lot of "the dog" in him, in terms of tenacity and pride. I don't want to trade shooting for D so I hope he can hang with Bridges. But, between Gary, Marvin and Javin, we have a lot of options to throw at the presumptive POY.

BandAlum83
11-14-2017, 03:21 PM
I saw that Jeff Capel will not be at tonight's game. Understandable after the death of his father.

I'm curious how that affects the flow of the game from the coaching perspective. What is/are Jeff's job/responsibilities during the game? Are they significant duties, or more mechanical like tracking timeouts, foul situation and the like?

To whom does that job now belong? Is it a domino kind of effect?

Spanarkel
11-14-2017, 03:59 PM
I watched a ton of MSU basketball last year being a Michigan fan (including an in-person blowout victory in the Crysler Center). A couple of more in-depth notes you might not find in the typical scouting report that people might find interesting:

—Tum Tum Nairn is one of the worst shooters I've ever seen as a guard at a major program. Big Ten teams designed their entire defenses around allowing/forcing him to shoot wide-open threes last season, and he still shot somewhere in the 20% range if I'm not mistaken. If Duke decides to play some zone, it wouldn't surprise me if it's primarily when Nairn is on the court. (Side note for the Crazies: I actually got into his head yelling at him about this from the student section last year, he turned towards me and yelled a little bit. Go after him about his lack of shooting prowess!)

—Ward is a load on the glass, but was prone to major foul trouble last year. And, while he's an upper classman, Schilling has always been an average player at best, so it's a huge drop off from Ward to Schilling off the bench. I hope Grayson and Duval attack Ward off the dribble early and often.

—Bridges is a great player, but he had a habit last year of falling in love with the three point shot, which while serviceable is not his strength. Again, I'm betting this might motivate Coach K to play some zone (it would make sense considering how much we played it against Utah Valley, imagining that as a tune-up for MSU). If we can force him to settle for outside jumpers it's a good sign.

—Matt McQuaid is a pure shooter off the bench, and last year was MSU's only source of consistent outside shooting (sensing a theme here? haha). If we run him off the three point line there isn't much else offensively he can do, and he's a defensive liability.

—In general, Izzo has an almost antithetical rotation system to Coach K: even in big games he almost always plays 9-10 guys at least 5 minutes or so. On one hand that keeps the big guys fresh, but it also should create lineups that we can take advantage of.

If anyone has any specific question about the MSU lineup I'm happy to try to answer them based off of my watching them as a B1G/Michigan fan. I actually think that they're overrated entering the year based solely on Bridges returning. Had he gone pro I don't think this is a top 15 team. So I'm bullish on our chances tonight!

Enjoyed reading your summary, but regarding McQuaid it looks like he's improving on defense as he was selected(presumably by the MSU coaches)Co-Defensive Player of the Year on the team last season.

http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/matt_mcquaid_979905.html

PackMan97
11-14-2017, 04:16 PM
I am excited. Good luke, Duke!

brlftz
11-14-2017, 04:25 PM
As Duke_828 said on page 1, "May need Javin "Baby Rodman" D to play extended minutes trading shooting for lock down D if Trent struggles to hang w Bridges". The Bridges assignment seems to loom large. I agree that Trent seems more mature than his years would suggest, and he seems to have a lot of "the dog" in him, in terms of tenacity and pride. I don't want to trade shooting for D so I hope he can hang with Bridges. But, between Gary, Marvin and Javin, we have a lot of options to throw at the presumptive POY.

We also have the option of going zone, which I wouldn't be surpised to see early. MSU looks like a team that would struggle against a zone.

Billy Dat
11-14-2017, 04:59 PM
We also have the option of going zone, which I wouldn't be surpised to see early. MSU looks like a team that would struggle against a zone.

Very good call. It made many an appearance in the exhibition season and during the first two games. Someone in this thread, or on one of the many podcast previews I digested, talked about Bridges tending to fall in love with the 3. I'll take my chances on his outside shooting rather than him getting our guys in foul trouble by putting it on the deck and attacking the paint!

2 hours...let's go!!!

superdave
11-14-2017, 05:00 PM
—In general, Izzo has an almost antithetical rotation system to Coach K: even in big games he almost always plays 9-10 guys at least 5 minutes or so. On one hand that keeps the big guys fresh, but it also should create lineups that we can take advantage of.


I think Duke will have to really exploit the matchups when Izzo plays his bench. Run up the score before the defensive lugs come back in and muck the game up with fouls and shoulder tackles.

We can expect Sparty to be physical, so hopefully our young guys react well to that style.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 05:16 PM
There have only been about 40 meetings of #1 vs #2 in the regular season in college basketball history.

The complete list of previous #1 vs #2 matchups (through Jan 2016): https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/no-1-vs-no-2-teams-facts-and-all-time-stats-in-college-hoops-history/

zacollins
11-14-2017, 05:20 PM
As much as I respect Izzo, I would take Coach K over Izzo any day of the week. Yes we're young, and both teams have advantages and disadvantages. However, when it comes to coaching, I'll take K.

With that being said, win or lose, this game doesn't mean all that much. It's early, and this team has a lot of growing to do before March. By the time the tournament starts we'll be looking at a much different team than we look at tonight.

pfrduke
11-14-2017, 05:25 PM
There have only been about 40 meetings of #1 vs #2 in the regular season in college basketball history.

The complete list of previous #1 vs #2 matchups (through Jan 2016): https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/no-1-vs-no-2-teams-facts-and-all-time-stats-in-college-hoops-history/

Second time in the Champions Classic, and MSU was also involved in the last one. It's also the second time Duke-MSU have met as #1 and #2.

My personal favorite 1 vs. 2 was 12.10.05 - maybe JJ Redick's best game in a Duke uniform.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 05:26 PM
We also have the option of going zone, which I wouldn't be surpised to see early. MSU looks like a team that would struggle against a zone.

While possible (I mean, who really knows about teams this early?), MSU has two attributes that should hurt zone defense: offensive rebounding and good shooters. And Duke has to actually execute zone defense well, too; if we just allow cutters to go free to the basket like when we played zone against Utah Valley, no thanks.

That said, these big-time early season matchups seem like they devolve into foulfests fairly often as the NCAA refs emphasize freedom of movement early. We might see zone to protect our lack of depth at guard.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 05:39 PM
Second time in the Champions Classic, and MSU was also involved in the last one. It's also the second time Duke-MSU have met as #1 and #2.

My personal favorite 1 vs. 2 was 12.10.05 - maybe JJ Redick's best game in a Duke uniform.

Ah yes, when JJ went off against Texas. Fun times.

A correction to my post above, as I didn't read the article carefully. It was 40 times total (regular season AND postseason) that #1 and #2 have met. In the regular season, it's only happened 22 times.

So this is pretty special.

DukieInBrasil
11-14-2017, 05:57 PM
just wanted to point out that Javin only needs 8 pts to match his entire season output from last year.

Devilwin
11-14-2017, 06:09 PM
Guess who Bilas likes? :(

MChambers
11-14-2017, 06:15 PM
Guess who Bilas likes? :(

UNC?

weezie
11-14-2017, 06:22 PM
Bilas looks like he's lost weight.

Chat?

rickshawboycall911
11-14-2017, 06:29 PM
I don't think Jay,Jay and Seth care much for Dickie V. (hacks don't like competition)

-jk
11-14-2017, 06:31 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

weezie
11-14-2017, 06:31 PM
OTOH, K looks GREAT! Williams tie is meh.


Seriously, Vitale has told that Lombardi story at least fifty times.

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-14-2017, 06:35 PM
Can I just say how much I love that the Champions Classic includes just one school from the state of NC?

mr. synellinden
11-14-2017, 06:39 PM
I'd like to shine a spotlight on one of my keys to the game: turnovers. Last year, Michigan State was really bad at holding onto to the basketball. Like, really bad. They turned the ball over on 1 of every 5 possessions. That rate was the 301st worst team in the country out of 351. It was a team-wide issue. There were 8 (!) players on the team that averaged a turnover per game. Not surprisingly, this contributed to their mediocre offensive efficiency (1.033 pts per possession, #132 in the nation). It's hard to be efficient when you cough up the rock that often. The first game of the year for MSU did not seem to indicate that they have fixed this problem, either. In the opening win, MSU turned the ball over 21 times to North Florida. Every starter had at least 1 turnover with Nick Ward giving up the ball 5 times in 16 minutes.

It's a major area of concern for MSU. If Duke can get a number of quick buckets in transition, it makes the game that much easier. With the athletes on this Blue Devil team, MSU doesn't want to be giving Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval and Marvin Bagely III open lanes to the basket. That's something to look for from the first few minutes.

How has Duke done in the turnover game so far this season? Pretty good! It helps that Trevon Duval has 20 assists against a single turnover. But the team has a nearly 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio to go along with 21 steals.

Speaking of steals, another thing to notice is the play of Trevon Duval against their point guards, Cassius Winston and All-Name Team member Lourawls "TumTum" Nairns. Neither is particularly tall or blazingly fast. Duval has absurdly long arms for his size (6'3" with a 6'9"+ wingspan), which allows him to disrupt passing lanes in both man-to-man and in the zone. If he can make it difficult for MSU to swing the ball or initiative offense, the game can turn to Duke's favor.

Another player to watch will be Wendell Carter III. He's a big dude compared to his counterpart in the game, both taller (Carter is 6'10" while Ward goes 6'8") and longer (Carter has a 7'3" wingspan while Ward is at 7'2") than Nick Ward. Carter has been good at both blocking shots and generating steals from the post in his limited time on the court so far. If he can get Nick Ward to travel or deflect entry passes, it's off to the races.

On the flip side, I think keeping those two, Duval and Carter, out of foul trouble will be another key. It's hard to play aggressive defense when you're on the bench or afraid to pick up that 3rd foul in the first half. We've seen each of those two get a couple of early fouls so far this young season. Staying clear of the refs is a big area of focus from my seat.

Let's Go Duke!

I fear FT shooting will be equally important and it hasn’t been a strength so far.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 06:45 PM
It's about 20 minutes before tip, and the game is now a pick'em and moving towards MSU as a 1-pt favorite at several shops. This is probably sharp action (bigger wagers) coming in on Sparty. Let's hope the squares win on this game.

riverside6
11-14-2017, 07:14 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Michigan State...
https://www.scacchoops.com/michigan-state-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-11142017

rsvman
11-14-2017, 07:20 PM
Shaky shooting so far, and poor defensive transition. It's early, though.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:21 PM
He had a press conference to announce he was staying??

HateCarolina
11-14-2017, 07:21 PM
Is the sound off for anyone else? All crowd sound with announcers barely audible?

BD80
11-14-2017, 07:22 PM
Bilas looks like he's lost weight. ...

He went on a hunger strike until China freed the UCLA 3

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:24 PM
Duke missing a lot of layups so far. 3 misses and a few blocks.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:27 PM
Those blocks happen bc Bagley didn't dunk

rsvman
11-14-2017, 07:30 PM
Goldwire getting some burn, and gets a steel. JDL with the epic block at the rim!

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 07:31 PM
Man, both teams have some impressive size and rim protection.

We're doing a really good job on the boards so far to have this lead, outrebounding them 16 to 8. (This despite being in a zone defense).

Not surprised that an early season matchup is kind of ugly.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 07:32 PM
This team’s length and hustle will help prevent some of those long droughts when shots aren’t falling. I’d like to see some outside shots go down...

BD80
11-14-2017, 07:32 PM
The rest of the college basketball world is watching and thinking: "Oh Crap!"

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 07:33 PM
Goldwire for 3!!!

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:36 PM
Damn I hope that isn't too bad

BD80
11-14-2017, 07:36 PM
It's over

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:38 PM
Dalaurier is playing really, really well.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:39 PM
Poked in the eye should be okay.

InSpades
11-14-2017, 07:43 PM
Dalaurier is playing really, really well.

If he could quit injuring our guys that would be great... thanks :).

GeneBanksManCrush
11-14-2017, 07:44 PM
Dalaurier is playing really, really well.

Kid looks amazing.

Loving life right now.

dairedevil
11-14-2017, 07:44 PM
Will someone start a Bagley eye vigil thread?

proelitedota
11-14-2017, 07:45 PM
Poked in the eye should be okay.


Why is that? Didn't Scheyers playing career end because of eye injury.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:51 PM
So now K goes really small

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:52 PM
DeLaurier steals a pass, Bilas says nothing. Jackson tips the ball, Bilas is an awe at his length.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 07:52 PM
Why is that? Didn't Scheyers playing career end because of eye injury.

Dude, c'mon.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:53 PM
Bilas is awful. He goes out of his way to look like he isn't supporting Duke

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:55 PM
Damn Bagley still being out scares me.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:57 PM
Our point guard can't shoot

wavedukefan70s
11-14-2017, 07:57 PM
We could do better on D .boy we can rebound.

downeastdad
11-14-2017, 07:57 PM
Bilas is awful. He goes out of his way to look like he isn't supporting Duke

He's hidden his support for Duke from me for several years now.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 07:58 PM
Great Rebounding l

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 07:59 PM
Our point guard can't shoot

Whole team can't shoot outside Allen and Trent.

Kjeffrey
11-14-2017, 08:00 PM
Whole team can't shoot outside Allen and Trent.

And that apparently includes free throws. Yikes!

wavedukefan70s
11-14-2017, 08:05 PM
First time ive watched us.im liking this team alot.

slower
11-14-2017, 08:07 PM
Closed out the half with Vrank, Goldwire and O'Connell! I really thought they might fold, but that was impressive.

Showing us a lot here tonight. With Bagley in, we might be cruising.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 08:07 PM
Best defensive team Duke has had in a long time.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 08:09 PM
Duke shot 30% MSU shot 52% and still lead by 4

dukelifer
11-14-2017, 08:09 PM
Our point guard can't shoot

But he can dunk

Dukeblue91
11-14-2017, 08:09 PM
First time I'm watching this team.
Very impressed with the new freshman.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 08:09 PM
I hope we get Bagley back in the second half.

Coach K going for some unexpected lineups. Goldwire and Duval in at the same time, for example. We have not seen Carter much, and I'm not sure why. He forced a couple of shots but otherwise seemed to be doing ok. Why did Coach K go with Vrank over Carter?

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:10 PM
Whole team can't shoot outside Allen and Trent.

Trent is 2-10. His shooting kept MSU in the game when we had a chance to grow the lead.

gocanes0506
11-14-2017, 08:10 PM
Defense is active if the team is up 4 while shooting 30%. A good defense will make up for the bad shooting days. Hopefully the team can get a respectable 40% shooting while maintaining the same defensive intensity.

Troublemaker
11-14-2017, 08:11 PM
The only thing that matters is Marvin's eye. Hopefully he's okay.

Coach K seemed unhappy with Wendell and Marques' play and went small. We can't win that way, imo. Hopefully Wendell starts the 2nd half well and restores confidence.

arnie
11-14-2017, 08:11 PM
Closed out the half with Vrank, Goldwire and O'Connell! I really thought they might fold, but that was impressive.

Showing us a lot here tonight. With Bagley in, we might be cruising.

Thought Vrank looked better than Bolden and Goldwire, Trent and Allen are good shooters. Could be a great team with the rebounding and D.

jipops
11-14-2017, 08:12 PM
Bagley's Dad reportedly went back to the locker room. Getting a little nervous for the kid.

pfrduke
11-14-2017, 08:12 PM
We're winning this game at half because we're pounding the glass and turning MSU over - we've taken 13 more shots than they have (yet made two fewer, frustratingly enough). We've gathered up 50%(!!) of our own misses and held MSU to just 3 offensive boards.

Really high energy game for both teams - fun to watch.

Now, about Bagley's eye...

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:15 PM
Bagley's Dad reportedly went back to the locker room. Getting a little nervous for the kid.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if he came back tonight. Eye poke shouldn't take that long to come back from if it isn't serious. Hopefully nothing too bad.

dukelion
11-14-2017, 08:15 PM
Duke shot 30% MSU shot 52% and still lead by 4

28% to be exact....but it helps when we have as many O rebounds as they do D rebounds.

Kjeffrey
11-14-2017, 08:15 PM
The only thing that matters is Marvin's eye. Hopefully he's okay.

Coach K seemed unhappy with Wendell and Marques' play and went small. We can't win that way, imo. Hopefully Wendell starts the 2nd half well and restores confidence.

I wonder if he was unhappy with their defense or offense or maybe both. Neither asserted themselves offensively but the interior defense didn't look great either.

Dukeblue91
11-14-2017, 08:16 PM
What on earth is going on with our free throw shooting?
We're 11-18.
If it wasn't for Grayson we'd be looking really bad from the line.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:17 PM
Bench was solid. Carter was really forcing things and did not look good. Bolden has to be able to finish around the basket better but he worked hard on the glass. Duval needs to shoot less and Trent needs to make those shots he is capable of making. I think we need to be better from the perimeter to win because I don’t think we continue to win the boards so badly without Bagley.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:18 PM
I wonder if he was unhappy with their defense or offense or maybe both. Neither asserted themselves offensively but the interior defense didn't look great either.

Looked like Carter wasn't ready for the physicality. And then getting beat down the court a few times isn't good.

Hauerwas
11-14-2017, 08:20 PM
Really worried about Marvin. How bad could it be? Any eye docs on the board?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-14-2017, 08:20 PM
Really worried about Marvin. How bad could it be? Any eye docs on the board?

Don't ask Jon Scheyer.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:20 PM
Twitter reporting Bagley back on the court but not warming up.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 08:21 PM
Really not happy about Bagley's eye. Can't we have one season where a key player doesn't get a major injury?

Hopefully it's just a scratched cornea or bruise. But I could see him mouthing "I can't see" when laying down. After an initial eye poke, sure. Hope it's not a lingering issue - mostly for his sake.

Duval looked a little out of control at times. Looked like he was trying to go right back at Nairns a couple times - too aggressive at times.

Quite a few bad shots by everyone; Allen had a left handed runner with a shooter wide open in the corner. Bolden got some nice rebounds, but instead of kicking it back out to reset the possession, tried to take it up against 3 MSU players. No wonder they had 8 blocks.

DeLaurier still fouls a bit too much, but I'll take the energy. All said, losing Bagley was a huge swing but Duke held serve for a 4 point lead, despite shooting poorly from the field and FT line. Defense and rebounding are their calling cards this game. So far, they're out Spartan-ing the Spartans.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:21 PM
How snake bitten can a team be- our own player knocks Bagley out of the game🙄

jipops
11-14-2017, 08:22 PM
Twitter reporting Bagley back on the court but not warming up.

He's not coming back in tonight.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 08:24 PM
Bagley not returning this game. :(

Kjeffrey
11-14-2017, 08:25 PM
Really not happy about Bagley's eye. Can't we have one season where a key player doesn't get a major injury?

Hopefully it's just a scratched cornea or bruise. But I could see him mouthing "I can't see" when laying down. After an initial eye poke, sure. Hope it's not a lingering issue - mostly for his sake.

Duval looked a little out of control at times. Looked like he was trying to go right back at Nairns a couple times - too aggressive at times.

Quite a few bad shots by everyone; Allen had a left handed runner with a shooter wide open in the corner. Bolden got some nice rebounds, but instead of kicking it back out to reset the possession, tried to take it up against 3 MSU players. No wonder they had 8 blocks.

DeLaurier still fouls a bit too much, but I'll take the energy. All said, losing Bagley was a huge swing but Duke held serve for a 4 point lead, despite shooting poorly from the field and FT line. Defense and rebounding are their calling cards this game. So far, they're out Spartan-ing the Spartans.

I am sooo tired of the injuries. I know that college athletes suffer injuries but this bball program has more than its share the past few years. Enough is enough!

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:26 PM
I am sooo tired of the injuries. I know that college athletes suffer injuries but this bball program has more than its share the past few years. Enough is enough!

Freak injuries too. Stubbed toe for Kyrie way back years ago.

slower
11-14-2017, 08:27 PM
There will be NO easy baskets inside against MSU.

Carter is struggling. Gotta finish strong and pull down man rebounds.

Personally, I think Duval is looking great.

MPandolfi
11-14-2017, 08:28 PM
But he can dunk

He’s a pretty good passer :D

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:28 PM
There will be NO easy baskets inside against MSU.

Carter is struggling. Gotta finish strong and pull down man rebounds.

Learning experience for him against bigger stronger guys.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 08:30 PM
Grayson

ehdg
11-14-2017, 08:32 PM
Least Bagley is back on the bench. Has his warmup jacket. If not needed won’t probably see him again tonight.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 08:35 PM
Least Bagley is back on the bench. Has his warmup jacket. If not needed won’t probably see him again tonight.

They've already ruled him out for the night.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:35 PM
Least Bagley is back on the bench. Has his warmup jacket. If not needed won’t probably see him again tonight.

Insert Dumb and Dumber man on the moon gif

duketaylor
11-14-2017, 08:40 PM
Rebounding has been outstanding. Zone D as well. Offense needs work. Transition D early was sloppy, but has improved. Contesting nearly every shot inside; I love that. Lots to like so far. May be the most O rebounds I can remember from a Duke team ever. Excellent test, regardless of outcome. K's played several guys, at least 9, I think. And early.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:41 PM
Trent is really hurting us tonight

downeastdad
11-14-2017, 08:42 PM
Rebounding has been outstanding. Zone D as well. Offense needs work. Transition D early was sloppy, but has improved. Contesting nearly every shot inside; I love that. Lots to like so far. May be the most O rebounds I can remember from a Duke team ever. Excellent test, regardless of outcome.

Unfortunately, you gotta miss shots to get offensive boards.

slower
11-14-2017, 08:43 PM
NOTHING getting called inside. Nothing.

Gonna get VERY rough until the end.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 08:43 PM
We can't make a shot

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:43 PM
Michigan State puts them arm around Carter's waist every time he goes up. Never called.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:45 PM
Too many missed shots at the basket. MSU has been very lucky on bounces.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 08:45 PM
Except for Grayson, that is

BigZ
11-14-2017, 08:45 PM
Duval needs to finish.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:46 PM
Someone's going to have to help Allen score tonight. Don't think he's going to be able to score 20 more to win this one.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 08:47 PM
Michigan State puts them arm around Carter's waist every time he goes up. Never called.

Also grabbed him around the neck/chest on the loose ball. No call.

BigZ
11-14-2017, 08:47 PM
Goldwire needs more PT

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:47 PM
This feels like one of those games where the opponent hits a last second shot to win...

ehdg
11-14-2017, 08:48 PM
Greyson really shooting the ball well! Duval has been playing well also. Wendell needs to go stronger to the basket with the ball. Trent n Javin fouling way too much.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:49 PM
That was a nice travel.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 08:49 PM
Trent is stone cold.

Time for some O'Connell?

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:50 PM
4 fouls on Trent and DeLaurier

slower
11-14-2017, 08:50 PM
This feels like one of those games where the opponent hits a last second shot to win...

Even if we lose, I've liked what I've seen tonight.

But it does feel like it may be slipping away.

subzero02
11-14-2017, 08:50 PM
That was crop defense by Vrank... see ball and man

MChambers
11-14-2017, 08:51 PM
Even if we lose, I've liked what I've seen tonight.
Me too!

rsvman
11-14-2017, 08:51 PM
So.many.missed.layups.and.floaters.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:51 PM
Bridges uses his body really well defensively to move the offensive player while they shoot. Has happened about 3-4 times where the Duke player goes up and he moves them slightly.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 08:51 PM
That was crop defense by Vrank... see ball and man

And despite missing everything (ball and body) still got called for the foul.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:52 PM
Refs have not been good

subzero02
11-14-2017, 08:52 PM
Trent is stone cold.

Time for some McConnell?

It's about that time...

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:53 PM
Would like to see Duke pump fake around the rim. Michigan State is jumping on everything.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 08:54 PM
Javin was clearly fouled before the block

jwillfan
11-14-2017, 08:54 PM
O'Connell?

slower
11-14-2017, 08:55 PM
Running out of gas here.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:55 PM
Has Goldwire played at all this half? Seemed like he played well in the first.

DangerDevil
11-14-2017, 08:58 PM
I like how Bilas argued against himself as to why that was a foul on Ward against Carter!

slower
11-14-2017, 08:58 PM
Wow. This is a war. GREAT early-season test.

Carter and Ward are going at it. You can see they're on the edge.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 08:58 PM
So much contact on so many plays go uncalled then they call that weak stuff on Ward.

jipops
11-14-2017, 09:01 PM
Even if we lose, I've liked what I've seen tonight.

But it does feel like it may be slipping away.

I agree. I'd love to see the win. But if we lose and there are no further injuries, I'm extremely happy with what I've seen from a team of freshmen playing in a huge game in November.

gocanes0506
11-14-2017, 09:02 PM
Its really inconsistent referees tonight. Last 2 on Vrank that were nothing and that one on Ward was nothing but then dudes are knocking each other over and nothing is called? I don’t get it.

As far as the team goes, it bothers me that Bagley and Grayson are the two options for O. Having Bagley out is hurting the chances right now. At least injuries haven’t been an issue lately (sarcasm alert)

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:04 PM
So much contact on so many plays go uncalled then they call that weak stuff on Ward.

Two hands on the back of a post player gets called every time. Especially when you're also leaning into him with your chest.

MSU is getting a solid 3:1 ratio on uncalled to called fouls so far inside. Would be nice to have Bagley in there right about now.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:04 PM
I agree. I'd love to see the win. But if we lose and there are no further injuries, I'm extremely happy with what I've seen from a team of freshmen playing in a huge game in November.

Yeah, they look really good tonight regardless of the outcome. Missing their most talented player for 75% of the game.

slower
11-14-2017, 09:04 PM
Just what we didn't need. Sucks. I knew Carter was close to losing it. Rest of the game will be ugly, one way or another.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 09:05 PM
Ugh that may be the end

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:05 PM
Really stupid play.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:06 PM
Are they gonna look at MSU's Carter tripping Wendell, too?

rsvman
11-14-2017, 09:06 PM
Carter has been on the floor about three times. I think he might have been retaliating??

HateCarolina
11-14-2017, 09:06 PM
Carter for MSU was pulling Wendell’s jersey so it was not completely random.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:07 PM
Carter has been on the floor about three times. I think he might have been retaliating??

He's been fired up tonight. Ward was saying stuff to him earlier.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:07 PM
I think that was a fair call.

Faison1
11-14-2017, 09:08 PM
Carter from MSU was holding Wendell's jersey.

Here comes my annual rant about Jay Bilas:

Jay openly says he didn't see the play....yet turns around and starts giving strong opinions about it. What is the matter with that guy?

DangerDevil
11-14-2017, 09:08 PM
Are they gonna look at MSU's Carter tripping Wendell, too?

And Ward has been chirping at him a few times after plays as well.

No excuse for Wendell to what he did but I understand his frustration.

Thank goodness he was able to stay in the game, not sure that was the proper interpretation on the refs part.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 09:08 PM
At this point just let Bagley be okay and I’ll call it good

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:09 PM
Carter from MSU was holding Wendell's jersey.

Here comes my annual rant about Jay Bilas:

Jay openly says he didn't see the play...yet turns around and starts giving strong opinions about it. What is the matter with that guy?

Classic case of speculating without actually know what's going on. Has to talk about the play so he just makes his own assumption before actually seeing what happened.

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 09:10 PM
We don’t have much left

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:10 PM
Only 9-11 2nd chance points on nearly 25 offensive rebounds??

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 09:11 PM
Thank you Trent!

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:12 PM
Love Trent. 0-6 from 3? Don't care. Still shooting. BOTTOMS.

Kjeffrey
11-14-2017, 09:12 PM
Also grabbed him around the neck/chest on the loose ball. No call.

Makes you wonder what the refs are watching.

rsvman
11-14-2017, 09:13 PM
And Trent finally hits a shot!!

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:13 PM
Two hands on the back of a post player gets called every time. Especially when you're also leaning into him with your chest.

MSU is getting a solid 3:1 ratio on uncalled to called fouls so far inside. Would be nice to have Bagley in there right about now.

I understand that but that's just so wrong still. 2 hands on the back vs tripping a guy/pushing him/etc

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:14 PM
I understand that but that's just so wrong still. 2 hands on the back vs tripping a guy/pushing him/etc

Oh, I agree all the wrestling MSU is doing should be called. But it is what it is. :shrug:

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:15 PM
My goodness, if Delaurier had dunked that...

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:17 PM
What a game by Allen!

slower
11-14-2017, 09:17 PM
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AGDukesky
11-14-2017, 09:17 PM
Wow!!!

rsvman
11-14-2017, 09:17 PM
Wow.

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:18 PM
Guy is just cold blooded. Showed that in the championship game 4 years ago.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:18 PM
LOL

Delaurier had a 4 on 0 break and took it all the way himself.

arnie
11-14-2017, 09:18 PM
Wow!!!

Didn’t think he could shoot that well😀

BigZ
11-14-2017, 09:18 PM
Ted Cruz 2020

Dukeblue91
11-14-2017, 09:18 PM
Oh wow!!!!!!

DangerDevil
11-14-2017, 09:19 PM
Guy is just cold blooded. Showed that in the championship game 4 years ago.

I know it seems like he has been here forever, but that was only 3 and a half years ago!😀

NSDukeFan
11-14-2017, 09:19 PM
Grayson frickin Allen !!!!!

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:19 PM
I know it seems like he has been here forever, but that was only 3 and a half years ago!😀

I feel that way about so many players. Like that TumTum guy in Michigan State. Seems like he's been there forever.

FerryFor50
11-14-2017, 09:20 PM
If you had told me that a) Duke would play a zone defense most of a game and b) the Duke freshmen would have more composure down the stretch than the more experienced Spartans, I'd have laughed.

kostar
11-14-2017, 09:20 PM
Grayson frickin Allen !!!!!

i came to see the same thing!

WHOneedsSOX
11-14-2017, 09:20 PM
DeLaurier played himself permanently into the rotation in this game I hope.