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COYS
11-06-2017, 12:01 PM
Kedsy wrote an amazing Phase 0 post to get things started. It's a tough act to follow, but I gave it the old college try. Here we go . . .

Health
Duh

Health
*fingers crossed* *Knocks on wood*

Rotation

The rotation seems mostly set. Grayson, Gary, Trevon, Wendell, and Marvin seem to be the most likely starters with Javin and Marques battling it out for minutes off the bench. J-Gold and Vrank appear to have the inside edge as the 8th and 9th guys who are likely to only get spot minutes. Meanwhile, Jack, J-Tuck, Alex, and J-Rob (gotta keep it consistent with the J names) seem likely to get limited playing time this year, although they all bring something to the table in case they are called upon. The biggest questions seem to be who plays more between Marques and Javin and how much will Trevon be able to handle at the point? With Michigan State coming up in this phase, we should have some quick answers to those questions. Duke will also be playing in a few blowouts, so we should also get a chance to see if any of the guys outside the nine that I just mentioned seem likely to sneak into the conversation for minutes.

Defense

Duke’s defensive woes over the past six seasons have not been a secret. After ten straight seasons in the KenPom era in which Duke had a top 30 defense (and really, all but one of those years Duke had a top 20 defense), Duke’s defense took a bit of a nosedive beginning with the 2012 season. Since then, Duke has only finished with a top 30 defense twice (2013 and 2015) without a single top ten finish. It is not a surprise that 2013 and 2015 also happen to be the two best NCAAT runs Duke has had during that span. The DBR Forum has spent too many posts to count litigating the reason for the defensive decline. Whether it has been due to the presence of One-and-Done recruits (you could argue that Duke’s OAD era really started with Austin Rivers since Kyrie missed all but 11 games in ‘10-’11) , bad injury luck (after years without any major injuries to star players from ‘02-’10, Duke has dealt with multiple significant injuries to star players over the past seven seasons), a change in the hand-checking rules (which also started with the ‘11-’12 season), or a combination of all three (which gets my vote for the most likely reason), Duke has simply not been the same defensive force that it once was.

The two numbers that jump out at me when looking at Duke’s defense over this period are opponent turnover percentage and opponent two-point percentage. Duke’s best team in either category since 2012 ranks worse than Duke’s worst team in either category from 2002-2011. Since Coach K’s preferred style of man-to-man pressure D is designed to force the opponent into live-ball turnovers at the expense of occasionally allowing a few easy layups, having teams that force fewer turnovers while also giving up a high shooting percentage from two point range makes for a bad combination.

So what made 2015 (and, to a slightly lesser extent relative to the competition, 2013) so different? In short: balance. Duke was hardly dominant in any one defensive category, but the squad was good enough across the board. Among Duke teams from this six year period, it had the highest ranked opponent 2pt% defense (though in raw terms it was a decimal point worse than the 2013 team), the second best eFG% against, tied for the second best opponent turnover rate, the lowest opponent free throw rate, and, in typical Duke fashion, limited opponent three point attempts and kept them to a low percentage.

When looking at this year’s team, I hope we see similar balance on the defensive end. From a personnel standpoint, I think the team is in good shape. Our big guys are insanely mobile, especially Wendell, Marvin, and Javin. They at least have the physically ability to nail their rotations. Meanwhile, Marques has shown promise moving his feet while hedging on the perimeter. Combined, the four of them have the most shot-blocking potential of any Duke bigs since the days when Shelden collected rent in the Cameron paint. The combination of shot-blocking ability and mobility makes me optimistic that opponents will neither be able to shoot a particularly high percentage in the paint nor will they be able to simply blow by our bigs on the perimeter on ball-screens or in the event of a mismatch. Even if one of our bigs is pulled away from the paint, his partner in the post should be more than capable of rotating to block or alter a shot.

At the guard spots, Duke has a lot of length, strength, and athleticism, as well. Trevon is as athletic and strong a freshman point guard as Duke has had. Comparing his complete game to Jason Williams is unfair, but from a physical standpoint, he seems to be every bit the athlete JWill was. Grayson has excellent strength and good hops for a guard. Gary has an NBA body and great length at 6’6’’/6’7’’. Finally, in J-Gold and Vrank, Duke appears to have less physically gifted but fundamentally sound backups in case of emergency.

So what type of defense will we see? We’ve already seen a variety in the preseason. From traditional high pressure that picks up at half-court to a variety of looks at full-court and ¾-court presses, some of the defenses have looked vintage-Duke. On the other hand, the team also used a zone against Bowie State that was very effective at forcing turnovers by inviting Bowie State’s guards into the teeth of the defense and then swallowing them up with Duke's NBA-size.

Personally, I hope K and the staff continue to experiment with defenses that use slightly less aggressive ball pressure as I think the length and athleticism of Duke’s big guys is particularly effective the more compact the defense is able to stay. A ¾ zone press that slows the opposing team down before forcing them to face a compact half-court defense with five NBA-sized defenders while the shot clock winds down seems like a good recipe to me. That being said, I still think we’re more likely to see high pressure D. It’s in Coach K’s DNA. If Trevon can handle it (and he looked good in the first exhibition game), then we really might see a return to form of the Duke D of “old.”

No matter what defense Duke employs, keep a close eye on opponent 2pt% and turnover rates as indicators for which direction this Duke team is trending. The Michigan State game will be an excellent early test of this young Duke team’s defense.

Offense

Kedsy already posted excellent stats on Duke’s offensive profile over the past few seasons. In short, it would be shocking if Duke isn’t elite on this end of the floor. Obviously, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from three exhibition games, two of which were against overmatched opponents and the first of which was an intra-squad scrimmage. However, I feel like we can already glean a few things:

1) Wendell Carter is a beast in the paint. If it weren’t for the fact that a generational post-scoring talent like Jah was recently in uniform and that Marvin is a potential number 1 pick in the NBA draft, we would probably be talking about Wendell as the best post-scoring prospect to put on a Duke uniform since Shelden . . . and perhaps Boozer.

2) Gary can really shoot it. This bodes well for Duke’s three point shooting, which, as Kedsy pointed out, is one of the pillars of an efficient offense.

3) Our bigs can pass. Wendell, Marvin, and Javin have all shown an ability to make intelligent passes from the post.

4) Trevon is not confident from three. The ‘03 and ‘04 Duke teams were serious title contenders despite Chris Duhon shooting poorly from three point range, so Trevon becoming a reliable shooter isn’t necessary to the team’s offense (especially if Gary and Grayson fill it up from outside). However, his outside shooting is something to keep an eye on, especially when evaluating Trevon’s offensive efficiency.

5) Offensive rebounding should be a strength. As Kedsy reiterated in his Phase 0 post, offensive rebounding has traditionally correlated with success in the postseason. This team has the size and athleticism to be dominant on the glass.

6) Trevon is very, very fast and makes us a threat to get out in transition at any moment. He had a number of one-man fast breaks in CTC and the first exhibition game. If he's able to make up for a lack of three point range by grabbing two or three easy layups per game by simply running past the opposing team, it will go a long way toward keeping our offense near the top of the efficiency charts.

7) Marvin is insanely talented, but what is his best role? We've seen him post up in the low post, get the ball in the high post, play a little point forward, receive the ball on the wing, shoot some threes . . . basically, he's been everywhere. He is a very versatile talent so it's possible he'll continue to pop up all over the place. However, I am curious to know what his best role is. With the caveat that I am operating on a ridiculously small sample size, it seems that while he is the most talented player over all, Wendell is a little ahead of him in the low post, Grayson and Trevon are generally better handling the ball on the perimeter, and his three point shot isn't consistent enough for him to regularly hang out on the perimeter to hit open threes. Don't get me wrong, Marvin has been incredibly impressive so far. But sometimes being super versatile makes it harder to fit into an offense. I am not predicting that he'll have any serious long term problems, but I think that figuring out how he can best be deployed on the offensive end is an important part of Phase I.

Team Identity

If anything hindered the 2017 team, it was the lack of a team identity. One could make a convincing argument that there were five or six different teams that competed last season. The pre-Jayson Duke team, the pre-Harry Duke team, the Coach K-less Duke team, the Amile-less Duke team, the post-injury Grayson team etc. all had different players playing different roles at each point. While I thought the team put it all together for the ACCT and looked prime to make a postseason run, that was not to be. While Luke emerged as an absolutely monster on offense, there were still plenty of questions about whether Luke, Grayson (when healthy), or Jayson should be the go-to scorer in crunch time.

I think this season is different (barring injuries, of course). Grayson is the unquestioned leader. At one point in the Bowie State game, you could see Grayson standing up and yelling instructions from the bench as the team set up on the defensive end. We’ve also seen him instructing freshmen while on the court, too. He has seemed significantly more vocal this season. He is also going to be the team’s go-to scorer in crunch time. My hope is that despite the team being young and inexperienced, having a senior leader who is also capable of taking on the highest pressure tasks like making plays in tight games gives all the other talented players a chance to just be themselves.

Wendell is a beast in the paint, but if Grayson is pouring in 20+ points per game, the team doesn’t need to have every single possession go through him. Marvin is capable of doing so many things on the court, but with Grayson leading the way, he won’t have to create offense out of thin air all the time. Gary seems like a ready and willing scorer, but he won’t have to deal with being defended by the opposing team’s best perimeter defender as long as Grayson is on the court. Trevon has a lot of potential as a point guard, but Grayson has enough playmaking ability to take some of the burden off of Trevon’s shoulders.

Perhaps most importantly, Grayson plays with serious competitive fire. While that has gotten him in trouble from time to time, it also has the ability to inspire his teammates. I’m betting on Grayson maturing to the point that his competitive nature serves as positive fuel for the team. He has willed his team to victory on the biggest of stages. The rest of the roster is incredibly talented, but they will follow Grayson’s lead. By the end of Phase I, I expect there to be no doubt that this is Grayson’s team.

MrPoon
11-06-2017, 12:34 PM
Brilliant post.

The BagIII comment about fitting into the offense is spot on. The good news is we don’t seem to need to run much for him to still get monster numbers, the trick will be not to under use him or make him less confident without a system around him.

I also think the “experts” are under valuing GA being healthy and leading. You comments were also spot on. This has a chance to be your National Player of the Year. Healthy he is a spectacularly player. It’s just too easy for him. His motor should help push the Freshmen.

For me the questions are D and D. Defense and Duval. Otherwise I like the answers to all the other questions.

brlftz
11-06-2017, 12:36 PM
Jack, J-Tuck, Alex, and J-Rob (gotta keep it consistent with the J names)

So, J-ack?

edit: I guess the pattern calls for J-White, but I just like J-ack better.

COYS
11-06-2017, 01:20 PM
So, J-ack?

edit: I guess the pattern calls for J-White, but I just like J-ack better.

Dang, you’re right. Massive typo on my part.

BullBlue
11-06-2017, 01:57 PM
Kedsy wrote an amazing Phase 0 post to get things started. It's a tough act to follow, but I gave it the old college try. Here we go . . .

Health
Duh

Health
*fingers crossed* *Knocks on wood*

Rotation

The rotation seems mostly set. Grayson, Gary, Trevon, Wendell, and Marvin seem to be the most likely starters with Javin and Marques battling it out for minutes off the bench. J-Gold and Vrank appear to have the inside edge as the 8th and 9th guys who are likely to only get spot minutes. Meanwhile, Jack, J-Tuck, Alex, and J-Rob (gotta keep it consistent with the J names) seem likely to get limited playing time this year, although they all bring something to the table in case they are called upon. The biggest questions seem to be who plays more between Marques and Javin and how much will Trevon be able to handle at the point? With Michigan State coming up in this phase, we should have some quick answers to those questions. Duke will also be playing in a few blowouts, so we should also get a chance to see if any of the guys outside the nine that I just mentioned seem likely to sneak into the conversation for minutes.

Defense

Duke’s defensive woes over the past six seasons have not been a secret. After ten straight seasons in the KenPom era in which Duke had a top 30 defense (and really, all but one of those years Duke had a top 20 defense), Duke’s defense took a bit of a nosedive beginning with the 2012 season. Since then, Duke has only finished with a top 30 defense twice (2013 and 2015) without a single top ten finish. It is not a surprise that 2013 and 2015 also happen to be the two best NCAAT runs Duke has had during that span. The DBR Forum has spent too many posts to count litigating the reason for the defensive decline. Whether it has been due to the presence of One-and-Done recruits (you could argue that Duke’s OAD era really started with Austin Rivers since Kyrie missed all but 11 games in ‘10-’11) , bad injury luck (after years without any major injuries to star players from ‘02-’10, Duke has dealt with multiple significant injuries to star players over the past seven seasons), a change in the hand-checking rules (which also started with the ‘11-’12 season), or a combination of all three (which gets my vote for the most likely reason), Duke has simply not been the same defensive force that it once was.

The two numbers that jump out at me when looking at Duke’s defense over this period are opponent turnover percentage and opponent two-point percentage. Duke’s best team in either category since 2012 ranks worse than Duke’s worst team in either category from 2002-2011. Since Coach K’s preferred style of man-to-man pressure D is designed to force the opponent into live-ball turnovers at the expense of occasionally allowing a few easy layups, having teams that force fewer turnovers while also giving up a high shooting percentage from two point range makes for a bad combination.

So what made 2015 (and, to a slightly lesser extent relative to the competition, 2013) so different? In short: balance. Duke was hardly dominant in any one defensive category, but the squad was good enough across the board. Among Duke teams from this six year period, it had the highest ranked opponent 2pt% defense (though in raw terms it was a decimal point worse than the 2013 team), the second best eFG% against, tied for the second best opponent turnover rate, the lowest opponent free throw rate, and, in typical Duke fashion, limited opponent three point attempts and kept them to a low percentage.

When looking at this year’s team, I hope we see similar balance on the defensive end. From a personnel standpoint, I think the team is in good shape. Our big guys are insanely mobile, especially Wendell, Marvin, and Javin. They at least have the physically ability to nail their rotations. Meanwhile, Marques has shown promise moving his feet while hedging on the perimeter. Combined, the four of them have the most shot-blocking potential of any Duke bigs since the days when Shelden collected rent in the Cameron paint. The combination of shot-blocking ability and mobility makes me optimistic that opponents will neither be able to shoot a particularly high percentage in the paint nor will they be able to simply blow by our bigs on the perimeter on ball-screens or in the event of a mismatch. Even if one of our bigs is pulled away from the paint, his partner in the post should be more than capable of rotating to block or alter a shot.

At the guard spots, Duke has a lot of length, strength, and athleticism, as well. Trevon is as athletic and strong a freshman point guard as Duke has had. Comparing his complete game to Jason Williams is unfair, but from a physical standpoint, he seems to be every bit the athlete JWill was. Grayson has excellent strength and good hops for a guard. Gary has an NBA body and great length at 6’6’’/6’7’’. Finally, in J-Gold and Vrank, Duke appears to have less physically gifted but fundamentally sound backups in case of emergency.

So what type of defense will we see? We’ve already seen a variety in the preseason. From traditional high pressure that picks up at half-court to a variety of looks at full-court and ¾-court presses, some of the defenses have looked vintage-Duke. On the other hand, the team also used a zone against Bowie State that was very effective at forcing turnovers by inviting Bowie State’s guards into the teeth of the defense and then swallowing them up with Duke's NBA-size.

Personally, I hope K and the staff continue to experiment with defenses that use slightly less aggressive ball pressure as I think the length and athleticism of Duke’s big guys is particularly effective the more compact the defense is able to stay. A ¾ zone press that slows the opposing team down before forcing them to face a compact half-court defense with five NBA-sized defenders while the shot clock winds down seems like a good recipe to me. That being said, I still think we’re more likely to see high pressure D. It’s in Coach K’s DNA. If Trevon can handle it (and he looked good in the first exhibition game), then we really might see a return to form of the Duke D of “old.”

No matter what defense Duke employs, keep a close eye on opponent 2pt% and turnover rates as indicators for which direction this Duke team is trending. The Michigan State game will be an excellent early test of this young Duke team’s defense.

Offense

Kedsy already posted excellent stats on Duke’s offensive profile over the past few seasons. In short, it would be shocking if Duke isn’t elite on this end of the floor. Obviously, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from three exhibition games, two of which were against overmatched opponents and the first of which was an intra-squad scrimmage. However, I feel like we can already glean a few things:

1) Wendell Carter is a beast in the paint. If it weren’t for the fact that a generational post-scoring talent like Jah was recently in uniform and that Marvin is a potential number 1 pick in the NBA draft, we would probably be talking about Wendell as the best post-scoring prospect to put on a Duke uniform since Shelden . . . and perhaps Boozer.

2) Gary can really shoot it. This bodes well for Duke’s three point shooting, which, as Kedsy pointed out, is one of the pillars of an efficient offense.

3) Our bigs can pass. Wendell, Marvin, and Javin have all shown an ability to make intelligent passes from the post.

4) Trevon is not confident from three. The ‘03 and ‘04 Duke teams were serious title contenders despite Chris Duhon shooting poorly from three point range, so Trevon becoming a reliable shooter isn’t necessary to the team’s offense (especially if Gary and Grayson fill it up from outside). However, his outside shooting is something to keep an eye on, especially when evaluating Trevon’s offensive efficiency.

5) Offensive rebounding should be a strength. As Kedsy reiterated in his Phase 0 post, offensive rebounding has traditionally correlated with success in the postseason. This team has the size and athleticism to be dominant on the glass.

6) Trevon is very, very fast and makes us a threat to get out in transition at any moment. He had a number of one-man fast breaks in CTC and the first exhibition game. If he's able to make up for a lack of three point range by grabbing two or three easy layups per game by simply running past the opposing team, it will go a long way toward keeping our offense near the top of the efficiency charts.

7) Marvin is insanely talented, but what is his best role? We've seen him post up in the low post, get the ball in the high post, play a little point forward, receive the ball on the wing, shoot some threes . . . basically, he's been everywhere. He is a very versatile talent so it's possible he'll continue to pop up all over the place. However, I am curious to know what his best role is. With the caveat that I am operating on a ridiculously small sample size, it seems that while he is the most talented player over all, Wendell is a little ahead of him in the low post, Grayson and Trevon are generally better handling the ball on the perimeter, and his three point shot isn't consistent enough for him to regularly hang out on the perimeter to hit open threes. Don't get me wrong, Marvin has been incredibly impressive so far. But sometimes being super versatile makes it harder to fit into an offense. I am not predicting that he'll have any serious long term problems, but I think that figuring out how he can best be deployed on the offensive end is an important part of Phase I.

Team Identity

If anything hindered the 2017 team, it was the lack of a team identity. One could make a convincing argument that there were five or six different teams that competed last season. The pre-Jayson Duke team, the pre-Harry Duke team, the Coach K-less Duke team, the Amile-less Duke team, the post-injury Grayson team etc. all had different players playing different roles at each point. While I thought the team put it all together for the ACCT and looked prime to make a postseason run, that was not to be. While Luke emerged as an absolutely monster on offense, there were still plenty of questions about whether Luke, Grayson (when healthy), or Jayson should be the go-to scorer in crunch time.

I think this season is different (barring injuries, of course). Grayson is the unquestioned leader. At one point in the Bowie State game, you could see Grayson standing up and yelling instructions from the bench as the team set up on the defensive end. We’ve also seen him instructing freshmen while on the court, too. He has seemed significantly more vocal this season. He is also going to be the team’s go-to scorer in crunch time. My hope is that despite the team being young and inexperienced, having a senior leader who is also capable of taking on the highest pressure tasks like making plays in tight games gives all the other talented players a chance to just be themselves.

Wendell is a beast in the paint, but if Grayson is pouring in 20+ points per game, the team doesn’t need to have every single possession go through him. Marvin is capable of doing so many things on the court, but with Grayson leading the way, he won’t have to create offense out of thin air all the time. Gary seems like a ready and willing scorer, but he won’t have to deal with being defended by the opposing team’s best perimeter defender as long as Grayson is on the court. Trevon has a lot of potential as a point guard, but Grayson has enough playmaking ability to take some of the burden off of Trevon’s shoulders.

Perhaps most importantly, Grayson plays with serious competitive fire. While that has gotten him in trouble from time to time, it also has the ability to inspire his teammates. I’m betting on Grayson maturing to the point that his competitive nature serves as positive fuel for the team. He has willed his team to victory on the biggest of stages. The rest of the roster is incredibly talented, but they will follow Grayson’s lead. By the end of Phase I, I expect there to be no doubt that this is Grayson’s team.

Great post, thank you! ^This is the best thing I have always liked about Grayson. If all of the talent we have on this team will, as you say, be inspired by Grayson, this could be a really fun year.

Kedsy
11-06-2017, 02:12 PM
The two numbers that jump out at me when looking at Duke’s defense over this period are opponent turnover percentage and opponent two-point percentage. Duke’s best team in either category since 2012 ranks worse than Duke’s worst team in either category from 2002-2011. Since Coach K’s preferred style of man-to-man pressure D is designed to force the opponent into live-ball turnovers at the expense of occasionally allowing a few easy layups, having teams that force fewer turnovers while also giving up a high shooting percentage from two point range makes for a bad combination.

Great job, COYS. The table below expands on your point about our defense.



Year TO% 2pt% %twos Pom D rank
2017 17.2 .489 71.2% 47
2016 17.2 .503 75.9% 86
2015 18.5 .463 72.2% 12
2014 18.5 .503 75.9% 87
2013 20.4 .462 73.1% 26
2012 18.5 .470 75.9% 78


Not only did our worst defensive years exhibit high opposing two-point shooting percentages, but they were also characterized by a higher percentage of opposing shots coming from two-point range (and presumably, most of those were layups and not, e.g., 18-foot jumpers). In other words, teams were not only making shots against us at the rim, but they knew it and were able to keep getting to the rim to do it.

In our two exhibition games, our opponents only attempted 52.2% of their shots from two-point range. And they only successfully scored 29.6% (!) of those two-point shots. Probably not worth so much, but it might bode well if your observation proves accurate.

On the other hand, our forced TO% for the two exhibitions was 13.4% (and it was worse in the game Trevon played than in the one he didn't). So, again, probably not worth much, but if we couldn't even force turnovers against Division II teams, that might not bode so well at all. Hopefully, Division I teams will similarly have sufficient difficulty scoring two-pointers against us, so that the potential lack of turnovers won't hurt us too much.

DavidBenAkiva
11-06-2017, 03:05 PM
Great post COYS! This gives me a lot to watch during the first set of games. I'm particularly interested to see the dynamic between Grayson, Trevon, and Gary on the wings. They should have the length and quickness to generate a lot of turnovers. Will that translate into games? If not, I could see the team relying on the length of the front line as the heart of the defense.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2017, 03:21 PM
Dang, you’re right. Massive typo on my part.

And Coach J-ames on the bench teaching toughness!

left_hook_lacey
11-06-2017, 03:24 PM
Sort of on-topic and probably previously discussed, but I really with the PKI would've been a tournament format. Lot's of good teams in there and I just like the idea of having a "best of the event" to walk away with something. I also feel like it gives it more of a big dance feel/teaser early in the season and teams play harder than when they already know exactly how many games they'll play and against who(whom?).

dchen09
11-06-2017, 03:26 PM
On the other hand, our forced TO% for the two exhibitions was 13.4% (and it was worse in the game Trevon played than in the one he didn't). So, again, probably not worth much, but if we couldn't even force turnovers against Division II teams, that might not bode so well at all. Hopefully, Division I teams will similarly have sufficient difficulty scoring two-pointers against us, so that the potential lack of turnovers won't hurt us too much.

Just wondering about the TO stat. Does that count blocks or missed shots as TOs? I don't think it does (but I'm not sure). In which case the stat is big misleading as a wild/altered shot at the rim is just as bad as a turnover, especially considering how our big guys can pass. I think for this season, the TO% is much less indicative of our D compared to seasons where we have had plenty of guard depth. In the end, our 2pt defense will be much more interesting and correlated to offense compared to a team like Virginia since we have the talent to fast break off of missed shots.

Kedsy
11-06-2017, 03:42 PM
Just wondering about the TO stat. Does that count blocks or missed shots as TOs? I don't think it does (but I'm not sure). In which case the stat is big misleading as a wild/altered shot at the rim is just as bad as a turnover, especially considering how our big guys can pass. I think for this season, the TO% is much less indicative of our D compared to seasons where we have had plenty of guard depth. In the end, our 2pt defense will be much more interesting and correlated to offense compared to a team like Virginia since we have the talent to fast break off of missed shots.

No, missed shots and blocked shots count as FGA, not as turnovers. And it's not so much misleading as it is part of a larger picture. There are four stats that measure team defense (other than stats based on points scored): eFG%, TO%, defensive rebounding %, and free throw rate. Wild, altered, and blocked shots make your eFG% look better (which is why COYS linked two-point % with turnovers). Back in the "golden age" of Duke defense, our eFG% rate wasn't much different than it has been in recent years, but our turnover % was much higher. So, while our opponents in the two eras (in general) shot a similar percentage (including wild/altered/blocked shots), our better defenses limited opposing potential scoring possessions (by taking the ball away) at a much higher rate.

There are lots of ways to have good defense. If this team forces opponents into a very low eFG% but doesn't turn them over very much, that could be one way. Another way would be to allow a relatively average eFG% but turn the opponents over a lot (like, for example, our 1990, 1991, and 1992 Final Four teams). So it's not misleading, it's just different ways to keep the opponent from scoring.

Kedsy
11-06-2017, 03:51 PM
Year TO% 2pt% %twos Pom D rank
2017 17.2 .489 71.2% 47
2016 17.2 .503 75.9% 86
2015 18.5 .463 72.2% 12
2014 18.5 .503 75.9% 87
2013 20.4 .462 73.1% 26
2012 18.5 .470 75.9% 78


In our two exhibition games, our opponents only attempted 52.2% of their shots from two-point range. And they only successfully scored 29.6% (!) of those two-point shots. Probably not worth so much, but it might bode well if your observation proves accurate.

OK, I went back over our exhibition schedule for each of the past seven seasons, to see our opponents' two-point tendencies, and here's how it looked:



Year FG Att 2-att 2-makes %twos 2pt%
2018 136 71 21 52.2% 0.296
2017 121 73 27 60.3% 0.370
2016 145 79 33 54.5% 0.418
2015 117 93 38 79.5% 0.409
2014 114 93 38 81.6% 0.409
2013 138 105 43 76.1% 0.410
2012 113 81 40 71.7% 0.494


Looking at these numbers, though, neither the 2013 nor the 2015 teams stand out. Though it may be worth remembering that the 2015 team's defense was fairly porous until the post-season, so it may be that the 2015 pre-season version wasn't much different in this regard than the others.

But this year's team does stand out. By far the lowest two-point shooting percentage, and (with the exception of 2016) by far the lowest percentage of twos taken. It's only two games and all that, against clearly outmatched opposition, but it may be an interesting harbinger of things to come.

pfrduke
11-06-2017, 05:37 PM
One thing I will be watching is whether anyone other than Trent and Allen can be a reliable threat from 3. In the two exhibition games all other players are a collective 3-22 from deep. It looks a little better if you include CTC - the numbers change to 10-40 - but still not great shooting. Our spacing on offense is going to depend on someone being enough of a threat for defenses to respect on the perimeter.

pfrduke
11-06-2017, 05:40 PM
Sort of on-topic and probably previously discussed, but I really with the PKI would've been a tournament format. Lot's of good teams in there and I just like the idea of having a "best of the event" to walk away with something. I also feel like it gives it more of a big dance feel/teaser early in the season and teams play harder than when they already know exactly how many games they'll play and against who(whom?).

I mean, it is a tournament format, just two 8-team tournaments rather than one big 16-team tournament.

Our "Motion" bracket is a tournament among Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Stanford, Butler, Texas, Ohio State, and Portland State.

Billy Dat
11-07-2017, 10:43 AM
Team Identity
-Grayson is the unquestioned leader. He is also going to be the team’s go-to scorer in crunch time. My hope is that despite the team being young and inexperienced, having a senior leader who is also capable of taking on the highest pressure tasks like making plays in tight games gives all the other talented players a chance to just be themselves.
-Wendell is a beast in the paint, but if Grayson is pouring in 20+ points per game, the team doesn’t need to have every single possession go through him.
-Marvin is capable of doing so many things on the court, but with Grayson leading the way, he won’t have to create offense out of thin air all the time.
-Gary seems like a ready and willing scorer, but he won’t have to deal with being defended by the opposing team’s best perimeter defender as long as Grayson is on the court.
-Trevon has a lot of potential as a point guard, but Grayson has enough playmaking ability to take some of the burden off of Trevon’s shoulders.


After watching the entire exhibition season, I am worried about the "too much offensive talent" issue, which means I will be paying a lot of attention to team chemistry as we head into the next phase. I highlighted some aspects of COYS offense observations to point out how many assumptions are based on Grayson's leadership and production. The counterweight to that is, "What if these other guys think they are pretty good, too?" Obviously, they do think they are better than pretty good, they see themselves as one-and-done NBA draft picks. I only say that because Gary doesn't just seem like a ready and willing scorer, I am pretty sure he's confident that he is "The Man" based on the way he carries himself and hunts his shot. Maybe Wendell wants every possession to go through him. Maybe Marvin wants to create offense out of thin air. You get my point. I hope these guys can find offensive roles that both showcase their skills and fit into a team concept. My gut tells me they aren't going to be happy just watching the Grayson show. Everytime in the preseason that Grayson or Gary came down and jacked a 3, without the ball moving a round a bit to get touches for others, I winced a little bit. We have such offensive talent with our bigs that we have to keep them engaged so that.........



Defense
Personally, I hope K and the staff continue to experiment with defenses that use slightly less aggressive ball pressure as I think the length and athleticism of Duke’s big guys is particularly effective the more compact the defense is able to stay. A ¾ zone press that slows the opposing team down before forcing them to face a compact half-court defense with five NBA-sized defenders while the shot clock winds down seems like a good recipe to me. That being said, I still think we’re more likely to see high pressure D. It’s in Coach K’s DNA. If Trevon can handle it (and he looked good in the first exhibition game), then we really might see a return to form of the Duke D of “old.”

....they stay engaged on the defensive end. K has talked about young players letting offensive struggles impact their defensive play. I feel like getting the right offensive chemistry will be huge for this young team to deliver on both ends. I also like the idea of gearing the defense around our length and mixing in zones and zone presses to shrink the shot clock and the court. However, the question of whether Duke can ever again be a Top 20 defense under K persists and I won't believe we can be until I see it reflected in the KenPom #s.

English
11-07-2017, 10:52 AM
Sort of on-topic and probably previously discussed, but I really with the PKI would've been a tournament format. Lot's of good teams in there and I just like the idea of having a "best of the event" to walk away with something. I also feel like it gives it more of a big dance feel/teaser early in the season and teams play harder than when they already know exactly how many games they'll play and against who(whom?).

Had the PKI been a traditional single elimination tournament, in which one winner walks away with a trophy, the composition of the field would look a LOT different than it does today--there's absolutely zero chance that Duke & unx would play in the same in-season tournament, and I'd wager that many of the other conferences would have a big problem pitting two of their teams against each other, too. I don't have a problem with the two silo'ed fields, and I ESPECIALLY don't have a problem if Duke wins its bracket and unx loses theirs.

Either way, there are fun prospective matchups in each draw, so imagine it's two fun preseason-ish tournaments slammed together in close proximity and time.

duketaylor
11-07-2017, 11:14 AM
Duke needs to reduce what has become a lay-up drill for opposing offenses to a degree. Force jump shots and rule out attacking the rim. Leave that to our offense.
I doubt there's any on-going stats on number of 2-pt. attempts that were lay-ups. Would probably have to go back and look at play-by-play. Too tedious for me to attempt.

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2017, 11:15 AM
This wasn't mentioned but i think it's something worth watching: How does Duke respond to quick turnaround?
We've got a unique, for our schedule this year, back-to-back set on Fri-Sat, and play 6 games in 13 days. and 3 games in 5 days, with that 3rd game being #2 MSU ("neutral" court). Then we go on to play Southern, Furman and Portland St. in quick succession. The only expected challenging game will be against Izzo's squad, but there are a couple of things about this arrangement that bear watching.
First, the B2B games are both against mid- to low-mid level teams and Duke should win both, but that 2nd game might expose a lack of game conditioning if any of our guys aren't really ready yet. Will K substitute more liberally in the 1st game to ensure better legs in the 2nd?
Second, 2 full days of rest before MSU will be good, but MSU only plays 1 game prior, on Friday, so they will be substantially better rested, but won't have as many game minutes together as Duke. Will either of those factors matter?
The second set of 3 games doesn't seem all that worrisome, as there is a pretty standard wait between games and none of them are on the road or against upper-tier competition. This is a bit higher dose of activity than the team will see the rest of the year, so even those final 3 games might provide good insight into how this team recovers.
K loves to schedule early season in ways that will bear fruit in the tournament, and the B2B followed quickly by the MSU game will do a good job of mimicking the type of focus and exhaustion they might face in March/April. Unfortunately Duke will probably not face a likely #16 seed type opponent (Elon or UVSU) followed by a #1 seed type opponent in any weekend in March. Duke has a couple of 1 day off before the next game tournarounds this year, but mostly 2 or more days between games, so this spate of games might actually do a good job of getting this young team ready for conference play, despite the softness of the schedule.
So that's something i'm looking for in Phase 1: how well does Duke respond to quick-turnaround games? I'm also looking for the guys who figure to be 8th - 13th man on the team in minutes this year to get a healthy chunk of their total minutes for the year during this Phase.

COYS
11-07-2017, 11:43 AM
After watching the entire exhibition season, I am worried about the "too much offensive talent" issue, which means I will be paying a lot of attention to team chemistry as we head into the next phase. I highlighted some aspects of COYS offense observations to point out how many assumptions are based on Grayson's leadership and production. The counterweight to that is, "What if these other guys think they are pretty good, too?" Obviously, they do think they are better than pretty good, they see themselves as one-and-done NBA draft picks. I only say that because Gary doesn't just seem like a ready and willing scorer, I am pretty sure he's confident that he is "The Man" based on the way he carries himself and hunts his shot. Maybe Wendell wants every possession to go through him. Maybe Marvin wants to create offense out of thin air. You get my point. I hope these guys can find offensive roles that both showcase their skills and fit into a team concept. My gut tells me they aren't going to be happy just watching the Grayson show. Everytime in the preseason that Grayson or Gary came down and jacked a 3, without the ball moving a round a bit to get touches for others, I winced a little bit. We have such offensive talent with our bigs that we have to keep them engaged so that.....



...they stay engaged on the defensive end. K has talked about young players letting offensive struggles impact their defensive play. I feel like getting the right offensive chemistry will be huge for this young team to deliver on both ends. I also like the idea of gearing the defense around our length and mixing in zones and zone presses to shrink the shot clock and the court. However, the question of whether Duke can ever again be a Top 20 defense under K persists and I won't believe we can be until I see it reflected in the KenPom #s.

To try and ease your worries about offensive chemistry a little bit, this is not the first time Duke has had so many talented scorers. The 2001 team was absolutely loaded. JWill, Dunleavy, Boozer, Battier plus Duhon off the bench all deserved to have plays drawn up for them. The 2008 Duke team had Singler, Scheyer (6th man), Henderson, Paulus, Nelson, and Smith (off the bench) all of whom were big time scorers/shooters. I don't even think it's a bad thing if Gary thinks he can hit every three, Wendell thinks every possession should go through him in the post, and Marvin thinks he can create offense out of nothing. I actually want those guys to have that fire and confidence. In fact, I feel like Coach K's best teams on offense have allowed players to take a few "heat check" shots, even if they're bad shots because he would rather his guys be confident and ready to shoot than timid and passive. We've already seen a few heat check threes from Grayson and Gary plus a few "trying-to-do-too-much" drives from Marvin. I didn't really notice any negative body language from anyone else on the court during any of those ill-conceived plays. In fact, if our offensive rebounding is as good as I hope it will be, "heat check" threes with Wendell and Marvin in the paint might be the equivalent of entry passes (it would be really interesting to see what the offensive efficiency of a three point shot is with a strong offensive rebounding team vs an average offensive rebounding team. I would imagine the threes are particularly efficient from the former team, a la Duke 2010).

Plus, Wendell and Gary committed to Duke when it would have been reasonable to assume that Luke AND Frank would be back for their junior/sophomore seasons. Wendell and Gary are probably in line to get more opportunities now than they would have been if Luke and Frank were on the court, too. So if being the unquestioned top dog scorer were one of their biggest concerns, they probably would not have picked Duke in the first place. We've seen nothing to indicate that there won't be enough of the ball to go around (Wendell, Marvin, and Gary have all "gotten theirs" while Grayson has also had plenty of opportunities to score) and, if anything, we've seen a willingness among the big guy to pass the ball quite a bit. I think the key is that none of those guys HAVE to carry the team on offense, even if it turns out that it is actually a really good idea to run a large number of possessions through Wendell in the post, let Gary shoot (and hopefully, make) threes, or let Marvin do whatever he wants. And again, even if guys do get a little upset, that's not necessarily a bad thing. There's nothing wrong with some healthy or even intense competition.

I think your point about offense and defense being linked is spot on. It will definitely be something to keep an eye on. However, I don't think it's all that unlikely for Duke to have a top 20 defense. We had it by the end of the 2015 season. And it would be completely reasonable to think that the 2013 team, which finished 26th on D, might have been able to climb six or seven spots to reach the top 20 if Ryan Kelly had not been injured for a significant portion of the season. The defense was much better with Ryan, our best hedger among the big men, on the court than without him. It fell into the 30's from the teens without him before climbing back up after his return. If that assumption is correct, then Duke has had a top 20 KenPom defense twice in the past six seasons. That's not the consistency I want, but a 33% success rate would indicate that it is totally possible to get to that level again, especially since six seasons is a very small sample.

COYS
11-07-2017, 11:46 AM
Duke needs to reduce what has become a lay-up drill for opposing offenses to a degree. Force jump shots and rule out attacking the rim. Leave that to our offense.
I doubt there's any on-going stats on number of 2-pt. attempts that were lay-ups. Would probably have to go back and look at play-by-play. Too tedious for me to attempt.

Hoop Math (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2017.php) is a great resource, but their stats don't go back far enough to compare pre-2012 Duke teams to the six most recent seasons. I think that 2pt% is a decent-enough stand in (which is why I referenced it in my post) because if the opposing team is hitting a high percentage from 2pt range, it probably means they're getting a lot of layups or, at the very least, are not being contested on shots inside the arc.

Kedsy
11-07-2017, 01:23 PM
It fell into the 30's from the teens without him before climbing back up after his return. If that assumption is correct, then Duke has had a top 20 KenPom defense twice in the past six seasons. That's not the consistency I want, but a 33% success rate would indicate that it is totally possible to get to that level again, especially since six seasons is a very small sample.

Even better than the teens. On January 12, 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130113102403/http://kenpom.com:80/index.php?y=2013) (a few days after Ryan went out with his injury), Pomeroy had Duke's defense rated as #4 in the country.


(it would be really interesting to see what the offensive efficiency of a three point shot is with a strong offensive rebounding team vs an average offensive rebounding team. I would imagine the threes are particularly efficient from the former team, a la Duke 2010)

Ask and ye shall receive. This is only for Duke, and I don't have stats for three-point percentage taken immediately after an offensive rebound vs. not after one, but comparing overall Duke offensive rebounding percentage and overall Duke 3-point shooting percentage, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation.



Year OR% 3pt% %threes NCAA finish
1999 44.3% 39.6% 30.5% 2
1990 40.9% 38.9% 16.8% 2
2010 40.6% 38.5% 32.9% 1
1988 40.5% 37.3% 20.7% 4
1998 39.7% 36.9% 32.4% 8
1992 39.5% 43.4% 19.0% 1
2004 39.2% 36.4% 33.4% 4
1996 38.3% 37.6% 33.0% 64
1994 38.0% 36.5% 24.1% 2
1991 38.0% 38.3% 19.1% 1
1987 37.9% 40.2% 18.9% 16
2009 37.4% 34.9% 35.0% 16
2000 37.4% 38.3% 34.2% 16
2005 37.3% 38.0% 39.8% 16
2003 37.0% 36.3% 33.9% 16
2001 37.0% 38.5% 41.8% 1
1995 36.9% 38.1% 31.7% n/a
1993 36.7% 39.7% 23.7% 32
2007 36.4% 38.1% 29.6% 64
1997 36.3% 38.9% 36.8% 32
1989 36.3% 36.5% 18.3% 4
2015 35.8% 38.7% 33.4% 1
2014 35.2% 39.5% 39.7% 64
2011 35.1% 37.4% 35.3% 16
2012 34.7% 37.1% 38.6% 64
2002 34.5% 36.3% 37.6% 16
2008 34.0% 37.7% 39.2% 32
2016 32.9% 38.5% 39.8% 16
2017 31.4% 37.8% 38.3% 32
2006 30.9% 38.8% 35.2% 16
2013 28.8% 39.9% 33.3% 8

COYS
11-07-2017, 04:50 PM
Even better than the teens. On January 12, 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130113102403/http://kenpom.com:80/index.php?y=2013) (a few days after Ryan went out with his injury), Pomeroy had Duke's defense rated as #4 in the country.



Ask and ye shall receive. This is only for Duke, and I don't have stats for three-point percentage taken immediately after an offensive rebound vs. not after one, but comparing overall Duke offensive rebounding percentage and overall Duke 3-point shooting percentage, it doesn't look like that strong a correlation.



Year OR% 3pt% %threes NCAA finish
1999 44.3% 39.6% 30.5% 2
1990 40.9% 38.9% 16.8% 2
2010 40.6% 38.5% 32.9% 1
1988 40.5% 37.3% 20.7% 4
1998 39.7% 36.9% 32.4% 8
1992 39.5% 43.4% 19.0% 1
2004 39.2% 36.4% 33.4% 4
1996 38.3% 37.6% 33.0% 64
1994 38.0% 36.5% 24.1% 2
1991 38.0% 38.3% 19.1% 1
1987 37.9% 40.2% 18.9% 16
2009 37.4% 34.9% 35.0% 16
2000 37.4% 38.3% 34.2% 16
2005 37.3% 38.0% 39.8% 16
2003 37.0% 36.3% 33.9% 16
2001 37.0% 38.5% 41.8% 1
1995 36.9% 38.1% 31.7% n/a
1993 36.7% 39.7% 23.7% 32
2007 36.4% 38.1% 29.6% 64
1997 36.3% 38.9% 36.8% 32
1989 36.3% 36.5% 18.3% 4
2015 35.8% 38.7% 33.4% 1
2014 35.2% 39.5% 39.7% 64
2011 35.1% 37.4% 35.3% 16
2012 34.7% 37.1% 38.6% 64
2002 34.5% 36.3% 37.6% 16
2008 34.0% 37.7% 39.2% 32
2016 32.9% 38.5% 39.8% 16
2017 31.4% 37.8% 38.3% 32
2006 30.9% 38.8% 35.2% 16
2013 28.8% 39.9% 33.3% 8


Thanks so much for this. "You must spread some comments around . . ." etc. but sporks are implied.

Wow, I had been operating from memory but I had no idea Duke's D was ranked as high as number 4. In that case, it's possible Ryan's injury prevented that team from having a top 10 defense. This is further evidence that if we are able to have healthy big guys for an entire season, our chances of having a good defense go up substantially.

As for the chart with three point shots, that is really interesting. First, the 1999 team was absolutely beastly in the paint. Grabbing 44% of its missed shots is . . . just ridiculous.

However, I'm curious about the individual value of the first three point shot, itself.

There is some interesting work on KenPom's blog (https://kenpom.com/blog/charting-3point-rebounds/) that charts where missed three point shots are most likely to land and in which areas of the court missed rebounds are most likely to result in offensive rebounds. There is a lot to take away from that research (corner threes are potentially extra valuable because they are apparently even more likely to result in an offensive rebound than other threes). But what I would be curious to see would be whether or not having a high offensive rebounding percentage (which produces a slightly higher chance of scoring on the ensuing possession) makes taking threes more valuable regardless of whether the initial three point shot goes in. If Wendell and Marvin are grabbing O-boards and dunking the misses at a high rate, it would seem that even three point shots that seem like "bad" shots can turn out to be valuable as long as Marvin and Wendell (or Javin or Marques) are ready to gobble up any wayward shots.

I have not found anything definitive on that particular topic, but admittedly, I have done only cursory research via google.

niveklaen
11-08-2017, 09:43 AM
Duke needs to reduce what has become a lay-up drill for opposing offenses to a degree. Force jump shots and rule out attacking the rim. Leave that to our offense.
I doubt there's any on-going stats on number of 2-pt. attempts that were lay-ups. Would probably have to go back and look at play-by-play. Too tedious for me to attempt.

http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2017.php

While not a list of layups, this source has shots at the rim so it should capture most of what you are looking for.

Sir Stealth
11-08-2017, 11:23 AM
I've tried to find but have been unable to determine the record for dunks by a team in one season. Anyone know the answer? I bet this team gets a crap ton of dunks. Bold prediction is we challenge whatever the record is.

MrPoon
11-08-2017, 11:47 AM
I've tried to find but have been unable to determine the record for dunks by a team in one season. Anyone know the answer? I bet this team gets a crap ton of dunks. Bold prediction is we challenge whatever the record is.

I don’t know that but an interesting proxy (albeit a very poor one)/interesting number to track would be simple shooting percentage. Dunks have a very high percentage of being made :rolleyes: I suspect this year’s team will shoot (and dunk) at a very high rate. GA and Trent seem to be elite shooter (or at least very good) and Bagley seems to effortlessly be at the rim. Carter and Bolden’s rebounding often leads to dunks. Even Duval, not nearly the pure shooter of the other guards, can get to the rim if spacing permits and will finish nearly everything there. So the total shooting percentage for the year may be one of the best, if the year goes the way I hope.

BandAlum83
11-08-2017, 12:30 PM
I've tried to find but have been unable to determine the record for dunks by a team in one season. Anyone know the answer? I bet this team gets a crap ton of dunks. Bold prediction is we challenge whatever the record is.

I couldn't find any team stats either, but there is this about the 1982-1983 Houston team:


Thomas Bonk, a columnist for the Houston Post, coined the nickname Phi Slama Jama after a non-conference game against Pacific. Bonk counted 29 dunks in the 112-58 win.

On Jan. 3, 1983, Phi Slama Jama was born:

The national semifinal game on April 2, 1983, between Phi Slama Jama and Louisville's Doctors of Dunk is still regarded as one of the greatest NCAA Tournament games of all time. No. 1 vs. No. 2.

Houston had 13 dunks, 11 coming in the second half, to erase an eight-point deficit and beat Louisville 94-81. Olajuwon, who had 21 points, 22 rebounds and eight dunks, called it "a game you remember for a lifetime."

"I've never seen a dunking display like that during a real game," Louisville's Scooter McCray said afterward.

You really think we will compete with that this year?

Sir Stealth
11-09-2017, 11:47 AM
I couldn't find any team stats either, but there is this about the 1982-1983 Houston team:



You really think we will compete with that this year?

Obviously anything with this team is a complete shot in the dark since most of the players have never played college basketball before, but why not? I guess to make an actual informed decision I'd need to see more about how dunk stats have changed as three point shooting has increased. This team just seems to have a unique combination where just about everyone is very tall, very athletic, or both. Plus, compared to past eras the competition in college basketball just isn't what it was.

Here we: 1) should have an offense that scores a lot of points assuming we live up to Preseason Number 1 ranking; 2) have a large concentration of the best super-athletic/tall/both dunkers in the country on one team; 3) expect to grab a large number of offensive rebounds based both on (1) and on shooting not necessarily being a strength in a program that likes to bomb away from behind the arc; 4) have at least have some indication (though it could easily be lip service/preseason cliche) that the team will try to play fast and get out in transition more; and 5) expect to play a high number of games compared to historical teams from the past because of the overall increase in college basketball seasons and on expected team success.

NSDukeFan
11-09-2017, 03:18 PM
I've tried to find but have been unable to determine the record for dunks by a team in one season. Anyone know the answer? I bet this team gets a crap ton of dunks. Bold prediction is we challenge whatever the record is.

The Plumlee Dunking Company racked up quite a few.

jimsumner
11-09-2017, 04:48 PM
Not surprisingly, the school record for dunks is held by the 1998-'99 team, with 162. Elton Brand had 50, Chris Burgess 34, Corey Maggette 29 and Chris Carrawell 23.

Mason Plumlee holds the individual single-season record, with 87 in 2013 and the career record with 217.

The '98-'99 team also holds the school record for blocks, with 245. I'd rather see this team break that record than the dunk record.

English
11-09-2017, 04:52 PM
Obviously anything with this team is a complete shot in the dark since most of the players have never played college basketball before, but why not? I guess to make an actual informed decision I'd need to see more about how dunk stats have changed as three point shooting has increased. This team just seems to have a unique combination where just about everyone is very tall, very athletic, or both. Plus, compared to past eras the competition in college basketball just isn't what it was.

Here we: 1) should have an offense that scores a lot of points assuming we live up to Preseason Number 1 ranking; 2) have a large concentration of the best super-athletic/tall/both dunkers in the country on one team; 3) expect to grab a large number of offensive rebounds based both on (1) and on shooting not necessarily being a strength in a program that likes to bomb away from behind the arc; 4) have at least have some indication (though it could easily be lip service/preseason cliche) that the team will try to play fast and get out in transition more; and 5) expect to play a high number of games compared to historical teams from the past because of the overall increase in college basketball seasons and on expected team success.

Don't forget our non-conference/home schedule--if I had season tickets in Cameron, the only thing making me less ornery in the non-conference would be the dunking clinic put on by the good guys.

ETA: This is absolutely NOT a shot at the CIS season ticket holders, nor the value of the tickets...I'd love to have some if I lived in reasonable driving distance to leverage tickets for CBB on nights such as Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. I'm, frankly, jealous and look forward to a time when I can watch Duke beat South Carolina State in Cameron by 45pts.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-09-2017, 05:00 PM
Not surprisingly, the school record for dunks is held by the 1998-'99 team, with 162. Elton Brand had 50, Chris Burgess 34, Corey Maggette 29 and Chris Carrawell 23.

Mason Plumlee holds the individual single-season record, with 87 in 2013 and the career record with 217.

The '98-'99 team also holds the school record for blocks, with 245. I'd rather see this team break that record than the dunk record.

Stupid phantom travel on Trajan.

/grumble grumble

Sir Stealth
11-09-2017, 06:29 PM
Not surprisingly, the school record for dunks is held by the 1998-'99 team, with 162. Elton Brand had 50, Chris Burgess 34, Corey Maggette 29 and Chris Carrawell 23.

Mason Plumlee holds the individual single-season record, with 87 in 2013 and the career record with 217.

The '98-'99 team also holds the school record for blocks, with 245. I'd rather see this team break that record than the dunk record.

Thanks Jim - 245 blocks!!!!

163 dunks seems attainable.

Kedsy
11-09-2017, 07:36 PM
Thanks Jim - 245 blocks!!!!

163 dunks seems attainable.

The 2004 team had 240 blocks. The 1999 block record isn't unattainable, either.

jv001
11-10-2017, 08:43 AM
Not surprisingly, the school record for dunks is held by the 1998-'99 team, with 162. Elton Brand had 50, Chris Burgess 34, Corey Maggette 29 and Chris Carrawell 23.

Mason Plumlee holds the individual single-season record, with 87 in 2013 and the career record with 217.

The '98-'99 team also holds the school record for blocks, with 245. I'd rather see this team break that record than the dunk record.

Put me in the defensive camp. I'm hoping to see many of those blocks turned into easy baskets at the other end of the court. That could help offset our limited three point shooting. Well, outside of Grayson on those 3 pointers. I know Coach K has mentioned using the press this season, but I'm in the wait and see mode for that to produce baskets for us. This can be a really good season if our defense improves over the last few years. Let's beat the Phoenix and begin a very successful basketball season. GoDuke!

BandAlum83
11-10-2017, 10:05 AM
Not surprisingly, the school record for dunks is held by the 1998-'99 team, with 162. Elton Brand had 50, Chris Burgess 34, Corey Maggette 29 and Chris Carrawell 23.

Mason Plumlee holds the individual single-season record, with 87 in 2013 and the career record with 217.

The '98-'99 team also holds the school record for blocks, with 245. I'd rather see this team break that record than the dunk record.

Where were you able to find these stats? Are NCAA stats kept like this to learn the all time team record for blocks in a single season?

DukieInBrasil
11-10-2017, 10:41 AM
Put me in the defensive camp. I'm hoping to see many of those blocks turned into easy baskets at the other end of the court. That could help offset our limited three point shooting. Well, outside of Grayson on those 3 pointers. I know Coach K has mentioned using the press this season, but I'm in the wait and see mode for that to produce baskets for us. This can be a really good season if our defense improves over the last few years. Let's beat the Phoenix and begin a very successful basketball season. GoDuke!

Don't count Trent out of the 3pt shooting club. He shot really well from 3 in the exhibition games, 5-11 i think.

jv001
11-10-2017, 12:17 PM
Don't count Trent out of the 3pt shooting club. He shot really well from 3 in the exhibition games, 5-11 i think.

I hope Gary does indeed shoot 3's well but after last season, I'm not counting on anything until I see Duke play some tough games. GoDuke!

UrinalCake
11-10-2017, 12:37 PM
I was noticing that between now and 12/9 we play 12 games in a 29-day span. After that we play only two games in the ensuing five weeks due to the exam break and holidays. So, my fellow Duke fans, now is the time to buckle down and pull out all the stops! Use up whatever vacation time you have at work, deplete the baby sitter fund, and cash in on any "me time" equity you have saved up with your wife or significant other. Then after the BC game you can start replenishing in preparation for next year.

MarkD83
11-10-2017, 04:19 PM
My TV room is already to go and I am moving a cooler next to the recliner!!

YmoBeThere
11-11-2017, 10:00 PM
I was noticing that between now and 12/9 we play 12 games in a 29-day span. After that we play only two games in the ensuing five weeks due to the exam break and holidays. So, my fellow Duke fans, now is the time to buckle down and pull out all the stops! Use up whatever vacation time you have at work, deplete the baby sitter fund, and cash in on any "me time" equity you have saved up with your wife or significant other. Then after the BC game you can start replenishing in preparation for next year.

I dislike the large gaps in play...

superdave
11-12-2017, 08:50 AM
One thing I will be watching is whether anyone other than Trent and Allen can be a reliable threat from 3. In the two exhibition games all other players are a collective 3-22 from deep. It looks a little better if you include CTC - the numbers change to 10-40 - but still not great shooting. Our spacing on offense is going to depend on someone being enough of a threat for defenses to respect on the perimeter.

Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

camion
11-12-2017, 09:07 AM
Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

I don't even want to consider this; it leads to visions of sugar plums and such. :eek:

Kedsy
11-12-2017, 11:14 AM
I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

sagegrouse
11-12-2017, 01:21 PM
Through two games, from 3-point land -

Allen/Trent are 17 for 28 (.607).

The rest of the team is 5 for 20 (.250).

I dont know how often Duvall will shoot them, but I think Bagley could get much more comfortable in catch and shoot 3's by February. That's a game changer.

What would be a game changer is if Marvin could make 80 percent of his free throws as opposed to 22 percent.

dukelifer
11-12-2017, 01:23 PM
What would be a game changer is if Marvin could make 80 percent of his free throws as opposed to 22 percent.

Yes- the bigs better hit them at least 70% or it will be tough in tight games.

Kedsy
11-12-2017, 04:16 PM
Yes- the bigs better hit them at least 70% or it will be tough in tight games.

Having watched the free throw strokes of our bigs, my guess is that none of them will. It's possible a couple of them can reach the mid-60s, but far from a lock.

That said, in 2015 our three main bigs shot 51%, 55%, and 64% from the line and it turned out OK. Our fourth big that year (MP3) shot 71% in limited attempts, but looking at his career numbers that was somewhat of a fluke.

UrinalCake
11-12-2017, 07:22 PM
I dislike the large gaps in play...

The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

jv001
11-12-2017, 07:33 PM
I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

My eye test seems to agree with your assessment of Carter's shooting form. I think a player's shooting form tells a lot about the consistency of makes from deep. The JJ's, Trajon's, Christians and Grayson's forms were all good and they were good 3 point shooters. Gary seems to have good shooting form as well this season. GoDuke!

NSDukeFan
11-12-2017, 08:33 PM
The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

It happens every year. These darn student athletes seem to take their schoolwork pretty seriously and after a nice run to start the year, fall off around study time and holidays. Then there is always the start of conference play and true road games, which every team has to learn to win. Makes every year fun and interesting.

brlftz
11-12-2017, 10:38 PM
That said, in 2015 our three main bigs shot 51%, 55%, and 64% from the line and it turned out OK. Our fourth big that year (MP3) shot 71% in limited attempts, but looking at his career numbers that was somewhat of a fluke.

Are you counting Justise as a big?

My feeling is we should be expecting 50% from these guys. I’d be real happy with 60%

Kedsy
11-12-2017, 11:26 PM
Are you counting Justise as a big?

I am. He played as much or more PF as he did SF, and if you don't count Justise we only had two bigs who played double-figure mpg.

pfrduke
11-13-2017, 12:31 AM
I am. He played as much or more PF as he did SF, and if you don't count Justise we only had two bigs who played double-figure mpg.

One critical FT stat for Justise was the 76% he shot over the course of the tournament (including 6-6 against Gonzaga and 9-11 against MSU). Hopefully Bagley or Carter goes on a similar 6-game stretch this spring.

superdave
11-25-2017, 07:16 AM
I'm not so sure. He doesn't seem to have much "touch" on his shot, though I guess he's 1 for 3 so far which isn't terrible. I don't see either Marvin or Trevon (0 for 3) getting much above 25% on long distance shots.

Wendell (1 for 3), however actually seems to have a decent shooting motion from out there (not so much from the free throw line, sadly). And Javin (1 for 3) has kind of a line drive shot but I could see him shooting a decent percentage too.

It's possible the "non-shooting" rotation players get up to 30% on threes by the end of the season. Assuming Grayson and/or Gary don't go into lengthy shooting slumps, we should be OK from out there.

Well, we are into the extended shooting slump portion of the season already!

Allen started the season 17-26 and has followed that up since Sparty by going 4-23. That's still .429 on the season.

Trent started 7-13 and has been 5-27 since for .300.

Duval is 2-17 and probably should not shoot any 3's unless it is late in the shot clock.

DukieInBrasil
11-25-2017, 09:26 AM
Well, we are into the extended shooting slump portion of the season already!

Allen started the season 17-26 and has followed that up since Sparty by going 4-23. That's still .429 on the season.

Trent started 7-13 and has been 5-27 since for .300.

Duval is 2-17 and probably should not shoot any 3's unless it is late in the shot clock.

The non-G's (Grayson and Gary) have made 14 of 65 3FGs, bad enough for 21%. So our non-G shooters are making ~2-9 3s per game, which is a lot worse than i was hoping for %-wise, but only 1 made 3 per game below what would be pretty solid.

chriso
11-25-2017, 09:44 AM
While I am thrilled we won yesterday I woke up wondering why we got down 16 to Texas in the first place. Youth I suppose. I'm not a morning person so negative thinking is the norm before coffee. :) That said I was very impressed with out heart and toughness, and Bagley might be the best player in the country. I have heard Grayson and Javin are banged up which explains some things. Looking forward to the matchup with Florida. I am super impressed with O'Connell; I know he's not quite Dunleavy the second yet but he has made plays in two straight games that reminded me of Dunleavy. Kid is a stud.

BandAlum83
11-25-2017, 12:04 PM
The FSU game on New Year's Eve really scares me, in much the same way the ACC opener at VT scared me last season. We always play a terrible game or two after these long breaks, typically against a weak opponent where we can get away with it.

As an objective fan of college basketball, part of me likes seeing our play drop off so much because it reminds me that these are kids we are watching, who happen to be students as well, and the pressures of exams and the disruption of the holidays are real things. These aren't the robots we see in the NBA. But yeah, if we come out flat against FSU after such a long break and wind up losing, it won't shock me.

Great point! A (GA) Techster was just telling me yesterday how a correlation study was done matching Ben Lammers game performance against Ben Lammers' (mechanical engineering major) test schedule and how his game performance greatly suffered in the days after major tests.

This guy indicated that as a result, they are looking at making adjustments to the test schedule.

kmspeaks
11-25-2017, 02:02 PM
Great point! A (GA) Techster was just telling me yesterday how a correlation study was done matching Ben Lammers game performance against Ben Lammers' (mechanical engineering major) test schedule and how his game performance greatly suffered in the days after major tests.

This guy indicated that as a result, they are looking at making adjustments to the test schedule.

I thought college athletes didn't take tests. I know they don't at uNC and the heels said it wasn't a big deal because everybody's doing it.

BandAlum83
11-25-2017, 03:28 PM
I thought college athletes didn't take tests. I know they don't at uNC and the heels said it wasn't a big deal because everybody's doing it.

Not everything you read on the interwebs or the google machine is true. Beware!

devilsince1977
11-27-2017, 12:51 PM
What was good:

8-0 with 2 wins against top 10 teams. 2 wins with double digit, second half comebacks.

MBIII is better than advertised and expected. He a very unique talent. I have quit trying to compare him to other players; Duke or otherwise. He has already earned his own identity.

As I expected; the target on Grayson's back is bigger and bolder than ever. He is going to have to show greater restraint than any player in NCAA history. The good news about that is his teammates seem to be aware of it and have his back.

Gary Trent is this year's STONES.

Wendell can preform at an elite level, he just needs to do it more consistently.

Trevon may be a little raw at times, but he shows flashes of brilliance both offensively and defensively.

We have 4 competent back ups in Javin, Marques, AOC, and Goldwire. They may not get significant minutes in all contested games; but they can all contribute when the match ups are favorable.

For the NOT-SO-GOOD:

Nevermind, we are 8-0!!!!