Pre-ACC Picking Contest - Degenerate Gamblers Rejoice!

[JasonEvans]

We did this last year for the ACC season and the NCAA tournament and it was ton of fun, so I am bringing it back!

This is where you come to prove your gambling prowess. Sign up via this Covers.com link (https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/d74c0547-294e-4208-9cba-a82300d8a991) and using the Group password "GoDuke" (no quotes) to join our contest. You will be allowed to wager on any game from now until Dec 31st that involves an ACC team. Please, please, please do not mess up and pick a game that does not involve and ACC team or you will be penalized and required to lose the amount you wagered (which can be harder than it sounds).

To be clear, this means you can pick this Friday's Duke-Elon game and the Northern Iowa-UNC game, but not the Texas A&M vs. West Virginia game. Is that clear?

You can wager between 100 and 500 units on every game and can bet point spreads or O/U. You may make up to 10 wagers per day. If, at any time, your account gets to -5000 units then you are done and cannot make any more wagers. We will keep track of weekly winners as well as the overall winner.

If you have any questions, feel free to post there here and I am sure we can come up with a good answer ;)

Contest Name: DBR - Pre-ACC Season
URL to Join: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/d74c0547-294e-4208-9cba-a82300d8a991
Access Password: GoDuke
Commissioner: JasonEvans
Start Date: Nov 6 2017
End Date: Jan 1 2018

-Jason "once Dec 31 rolls around, we will start a new contest where we will only pick ACC games, just like last season" Evans

[Bob Green]

I'm in. Looking forward to the contest. :cool:

[ChillinDuke]

POTM!!!

So in!!!

- Chillin

[devildeac]

Over/under on how long it takes for first one (cough, richardjackson199, cough) out?;)

[OldPhiKap]

You had me at “degenerate”

[richardjackson199]

Over/under on how long it takes for first one (cough, richardjackson199, cough) out?;)

You know I'm in. Maybe I'll just bet opposite what I think and smoke you all.

Still at work, so I probably won't sign up until this weekend. But I don't bet less than 500 units a pop, so take the under on me busting out.

I'll find a way to lose some beer to somebody before this is over. But I'll taste a bottle, so it's worth it. :cool:

[du_bb1]

an opportunity to once again be humbled and, at least hope for improvement........delusions are good !

[left_hook_lacey]

This year, I'm just going to bet the farm on UNC every week. That way, I'll always have something to look forward to whether UNC wins or loses. If they win, I'm smoking the field, if they lose, even better. I should win a lot with the excellent entry passers they have this year, according to Wheat.

[left_hook_lacey]

Are the accounts supposed to be funded with the units already? I just tried to make my picks for tomorrows games and nobody had any money to bet in their account.

[ChillinDuke]

Are the accounts supposed to be funded with the units already? I just tried to make my picks for tomorrows games and nobody had any money to bet in their account.

Last I checked, lines weren't up either.

I've been refreshing constantly because, well, ...

- Degenerate

[left_hook_lacey]

Last I checked, lines weren't up either.

I've been refreshing constantly because, well, ...

- Degenerate

Same. Given my prediction of a 19-11 season for UNC in the Heels basketball season thread, I'm anxious to put my units where my mouth is. :cool:

[JasonEvans]

If it is like past seasons on Covers, there is no "funding" of accounts. You just start at 0 and each bet takes you up or down (look out for the vig on your losses, it'll kill ya!). I think Covers typically allows wagers the day of the college basketball games or maybe 24 hours before the game is to be played. We will likely see lines by tomorrow morning.

-Jason "sign up folks... it is fun fun fun!!" Evans

[MrPoon]

Baby needs new shoes!
MrPoon’s all in.
There should be a “house” penalty for anyone who wins units by betting against the Devils. :cool:
Listening to the podcast the last few years I’m guessing JasonEvans has bet the over for every game without even waiting to see what the number is! (I tease out of love, keep the pods coming, love the passion!)

[JasonEvans]

Listening to the podcast the last few years I’m guessing JasonEvans has bet the over for every game without even waiting to see what the number is! (I tease out of love, keep the pods coming, love the passion!)

I am a huge sucker for the over... though last season I got killed on some under bets on Virginia games that somehow reached 120+ points. Sigh...

[ChillinDuke]

Lines are trickling in!!!

Duke -19.5, for those wondering.

- Chillin

ETA - moved to 20 already. Two books reporting so far.

[ChillinDuke]

Covers still has nothing up yet.

Duke opened -19 on the Vegas lines. Five books reporting so far. The offshore lines are more or less in agreement. Some 19.5s to be had, if you're so inclined slash lucky.

What say ye degenerates?

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

Covers still has nothing up yet.

Duke opened -19 on the Vegas lines. Five books reporting so far. The offshore lines are more or less in agreement. Some 19.5s to be had, if you're so inclined slash lucky.

What say ye degenerates?

- Chillin

Friday games up now.

[SilkyJ]

I had no idea this was a thing. Love it. Can't wait to hit -5000

This coming March will be the 5th straight year of March Madness in Vegas for me, when my true degenerate gambling comes out. Now you do all the betting via apps, you don't even need to walk up to book, which is simply incredible. I've never made so many teases and parlays in my life. Hope to see you guys there.

[LasVegas]

I had no idea this was a thing. Love it. Can't wait to hit -5000

This coming March will be the 5th straight year of March Madness in Vegas for me, when my true degenerate gambling comes out. Now you do all the betting via apps, you don't even need to walk up to book, which is simply incredible. I've never made so many teases and parlays in my life. Hope to see you guys there.

Can place bets from the comfort of your couch! Although, I don’t bet much since I live here. Not a good habit to get into.

[SilkyJ]

Can place bets from the comfort of your couch! Although, I don’t bet much since I live here. Not a good habit to get into.

Agreed. Very dangerous if your GPS always says you're in Nevada...

[Troublemaker]

Duke opened -19 on the Vegas lines. Five books reporting so far. The offshore lines are more or less in agreement. Some 19.5s to be had, if you're so inclined slash lucky.

What say ye degenerates?

- Chillin

With Duke, the two angles I'm approaching us from early in the season:
(1) Duke's defense will be underrated
(2) Duke's fast pace will be underrated

Both of those angles work together for a spread play on Duke, so I put in a $300 bet on us to cover 19.5. Why not a max bet ($500)? Because I'll be watching the game and looking to confirm (or reject) my two angles / hypotheses. At this point, I feel confident enough in the angles to bet (especially with fake money, haha) but not to max-bet. I also like that Elon played us close last season and had a halftime lead on us. They will have Duke's full attention.

I'm not going to play the total, which will come in at around 156. Here, the two angles are at cross-purposes. Duke's underrated defense would push me Under, but Duke's fast pace would push me Over. If anyone's playing the Over, beware that if everything goes well for Duke in this game and we have a 30-pt lead in the second half, those last few minutes of the game will slow to a crawl. We'll be in zone defense to rest legs, and we'll play stallball on the other end. It would almost make me lean under, except I expect Duke's 1st-half pace to be blistering.

[ChillinDuke]

With Duke, the two angles I'm approaching us from early in the season:
(1) Duke's defense will be underrated
(2) Duke's fast pace will be underrated

Both of those angles work together for a spread play on Duke, so I put in a $300 bet on us to cover 19.5. Why not a max bet ($500)? Because I'll be watching the game and looking to confirm (or reject) my two angles / hypotheses. At this point, I feel confident enough in the angles to bet (especially with fake money, haha) but not to max-bet. I also like that Elon played us close last season and had a halftime lead on us. They will have Duke's full attention.

I'm not going to play the total, which will come in at around 156. Here, the two angles are at cross-purposes. Duke's underrated defense would push me Under, but Duke's fast pace would push me Over. If anyone's playing the Over, beware that if everything goes well for Duke in this game and we have a 30-pt lead in the second half, those last few minutes of the game will slow to a crawl. We'll be in zone defense to rest legs, and we'll play stallball on the other end. It would almost make me lean under, except I expect Duke's 1st-half pace to be blistering.

I love it.

I, too, am not touching the total. In fact, I'm not sure I'm going to touch the game at all. If anything, my model says take Elon and the points, but not overwhelmingly so.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

I love it.

I, too, am not touching the total. In fact, I'm not sure I'm going to touch the game at all. If anything, my model says take Elon and the points, but not overwhelmingly so.

- Chillin

Ooh, a math player. I'll be interested in seeing how you fare vs "kenpombets", Chillin'

[ChillinDuke]

Ooh, a math player. I'll be interested in seeing how you fare vs "kenpombets", Chillin'

You know how this ends... :rolleyes:

- Chillin

ETA - Also, I know how this ends...

[Bob Green]

My bets are placed! :cool:

Thanks for setting the contest up, Jason! This was a lot of fun last season and I expect it will be again.

[left_hook_lacey]

500 units on northern Iowa. 500 units on Duke! Let's do this!!

[JasonEvans]

500 units on northern Iowa. 500 units on Duke! Let's do this!!

One of those bets is looking good... the one I really care about ;)

[NYBri]

Looking forward to defending my title!

[Bob Green]

I took the under (126.5) in the Virginia game - that bet is looking good at the half as 49 total points have been scored.

[left_hook_lacey]

I took the under (126.5) in the Virginia game - that bet is looking good at the half as 49 total points have been scored.

Jason does not approve.of under bets. God speed Bob Green. God speed.

[PackMan97]

I didn't see the option for an O/U bet, did I miss something?

So far, seems like a fun contest. WTH happened to WF?

[Bob Green]

...did I miss something?

Yes. The O/U is right there hiding in plain sight.

[JasonEvans]

I didn't see the option for an O/U bet, did I miss something?

So far, seems like a fun contest. WTH happened to WF?

The O/U numbers often show up after the lines are posted. I looked earlier and there were only lines posted but I just looked again and the O/U was available.

The Duke game is not yet posted. Will need to check later to see if they get it up.

[PackMan97]

I'd like to cash out now. How do I get my check?

Thanks!

[left_hook_lacey]

Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.

I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.
I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell. I will not bet on UNC-Bucknell.

[Troublemaker]

Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.

My fellow degenerate, please note that you should only be wagering on games involving ACC teams. See the rules in post 1 of this thread.

Overall, it looks like you've gone 1-3 in non-ACC games (the lone win being last night), so there will be no need for you to lose games on purpose since there was no benefit to you. (Picking losers on purpose was Sportsbook Manager Jason Evans' solution to such mistakes last season, and it could get entertaining watching people chase losses).

Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!

[JasonEvans]

Went 3-0 last night on Champions Classic bets to get back in the black. Got some work left to do to catch Curtis325 and Packman97 it appears. Just can't bet on stupid games with huge point spreads just because I'm a degenerate.

Ummm, I have some bad news Mr. Left_Hook. You have broken the rules of the contest.

You are only allowed to be on games involving ACC teams!!!

This was made clear at the start of the contest. Your successful wager on the Kentucky-Kansas game last night was illegal, as was 3 other games you bet upon that were not involving ACC teams. Now, the other 3 wagers were all losses, so I am going to be nice and not force you to wipe those games out. But, you need to pick a game and wager 100 units on it (the same amount as your Kansas wager) and then lose that bet. Please post in this forum which game (it can be any game, not bounded by ACC rules) you are planning to lose. If you are lucky, you will lose the first time you try. But, if you try to lose and accidentally win, you will be required to pick another game to lose and this time you must wager 200 units... and so on until you have successfully wiped out the loss. Trust me, this can take time and can be quite costly to your bank account. Just be thankful you only wagered 100 units!

-Jason "I hope everyone else fully understands this rule!" Evans

[left_hook_lacey]

My fellow degenerate, please note that you should only be wagering on games involving ACC teams. See the rules in post 1 of this thread.

Overall, it looks like you've gone 1-3 in non-ACC games (the lone win being last night), so there will be no need for you to lose games on purpose since there was no benefit to you. (Picking losers on purpose was Sportsbook Manager Jason Evans' solution to such mistakes last season, and it could get entertaining watching people chase losses).

Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!

Crap. Good call. I completely forgot about the ACC teams only rule. Hopefully, Jason "bone saw" Evans, the most feared bookie in the land, doesn't send Ugly Vinnie and Jimmy Whispers to handle me.

[PackMan97]

Props to Curtis and Packman so far. Nice work!

I wish I could say I knew what I was doing :/

[JNort]

So how can we just view ACC teams? It only let's me see 1 ACC game and doesn't let me choose which?

[curtis325]

I wish I could say I knew what I was doing :/

As for me... blind pig meets acorn.

[PackMan97]

So how can we just view ACC teams? It only let's me see 1 ACC game and doesn't let me choose which?

Not all games are available. It seems like the bigger the game the more likely it's listed. For example games between #97 NC State and #320 Bryant doesn't get listed. But #1 Duke vs #2 MSU does.

[JNort]

Not all games are available. It seems like the bigger the game the more likely it's listed. For example games between #97 NC State and #320 Bryant doesn't get listed. But #1 Duke vs #2 MSU does.
I saw thay some of y'all had made close to 20 bets already though. I've only seen around 6 acc games on there as well as the 1 today.

[JasonEvans]

I saw thay some of y'all had made close to 20 bets already though. I've only seen around 6 acc games on there as well as the 1 today.

Sometimes you need to check later in the day to get all the games.

Curtis has made 21 wagers so far... every one of them on an ACC game.

[Troublemaker]

Crap. Good call. I completely forgot about the ACC teams only rule. Hopefully, Jason "bone saw" Evans, the most feared bookie in the land, doesn't send Ugly Vinnie and Jimmy Whispers to handle me.

Yeah, I spoke too soon. "Bone Saw" Evans has decided to tax you and you better obey. He's the boss.

[left_hook_lacey]

Ummm, I have some bad news Mr. Left_Hook. You have broken the rules of the contest.

You are only allowed to be on games involving ACC teams!!!

This was made clear at the start of the contest. Your successful wager on the Kentucky-Kansas game last night was illegal, as was 3 other games you bet upon that were not involving ACC teams. Now, the other 3 wagers were all losses, so I am going to be nice and not force you to wipe those games out. But, you need to pick a game and wager 100 units on it (the same amount as your Kansas wager) and then lose that bet. Please post in this forum which game (it can be any game, not bounded by ACC rules) you are planning to lose. If you are lucky, you will lose the first time you try. But, if you try to lose and accidentally win, you will be required to pick another game to lose and this time you must wager 200 units... and so on until you have successfully wiped out the loss. Trust me, this can take time and can be quite costly to your bank account. Just be thankful you only wagered 100 units!

-Jason "I hope everyone else fully understands this rule!" Evans

Challenge accepted!!!

[PackMan97]

I almost bet on a Maryland game. Oops.

[left_hook_lacey]

Ok. The Clearasil bet is Navy vs. Penn. Navy is +5 at Penn. I took Navy and bet 100 in the hopes of losing and getting square with the sharks.

[left_hook_lacey]

No line out for the UNC Bucknell game yet. Still no word on Berry's availability, Cam Johnson now out, Brandon Robinson out. So many unknowns in this one Vegas my not even put up a line.

The Dean Dome will be packed with literally dozens of rowdy students and fans, ready to sit on their hands and moan and groan in this one. It'll be so quiet, you'll be able to hear the HVAC kick on, even from home on tv. :cool:

[rasputin]

No line out for the UNC Bucknell game yet. Still no word on Berry's availability, Cam Johnson now out, Brandon Robinson out. So many unknowns in this one Vegas my not even put up a line.

The Dean Dome will be packed with literally dozens of rowdy students and fans, ready to sit on their hands and moan and groan in this one. It'll be so quiet, you'll be able to hear the HVAC kick on, even from home on tv. :cool:

It's important to have the wine and cheese at the right temperature.

[Troublemaker]

For the gambling inclined, it seems that Duke is now a 23-point favorite over the Paladins tonight, which is an appealing line coming off the less-than-stellar showing on Friday. My educated thought, from institutional knowledge and seeing the Southern post-game quotes from K and team, is that a message was sent and this will be an opportunity to show that the message has been received.

Furman may be a veteran squad, but the talent disparity will be stark, as will the size gap. Either way, I'm eager to see how the fellas respond in the wake of a letdown game on Friday, preceding a stretch of more high-profile, competitive PK80 games upcoming.

A good take, English, and one I agree with. You should back it up with a bet in our contest. (Unless your work firewall doesn't allow access to Covers, in which case you should bet some fake money when you get home. [Unless you can do it on your phone]).

[Pghdukie]

Same as last year, I can't get on wager site. It is alot of fun so I'll play along with the knowledge of winning the illustrious 6pk is out of the question. Good luck to all. Have fun !

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Same as last year, I can't get on wager site. It is alot of fun so I'll play along with the knowledge of winning the illustrious 6pk is out of the question. Good luck to all. Have fun !

Armchair QB is a good position to play.

I am not playing this year because last year I learned that losing fake money is more fun than losing real money, I am a crap picker.

[Troublemaker]

Which one of you contestants is Coach K? Because, thanks for keeping Duval and Carter in until the end, Coach! We needed it!

[JasonEvans]

Which one of you contestants is Coach K? Because, thanks for keeping Duval and Carter in until the end, Coach! We needed it!

Thanks to Duke both covering (23 point line) and hitting the over (153.5 and the total was 155) for a total of 800 smackers, I am back in positive territory in a pretty big way (+780). Quite exciting for me ;)

--Jason "I have 900 fake bucks on remaining games tonight so I fully expect I will be back in negative territory by morning" Evans

[ChillinDuke]

Doh!!! I ran the numbers too late to get in on the party celebrating how bad Pitt is. A 10 pt line looked mighty attractive on a neutral floor. Hindsight I guess.

For those that care, Vegas doesn't seem to have caught up to how truly bad Pitt appears to be this season. Take those lines while they give them.

- Chillin

[rasputin]

Thanks to Duke both covering (23 point line) and hitting the over (153.5 and the total was 155) for a total of 800 smackers, I am back in positive territory in a pretty big way (+780). Quite exciting for me ;)

--Jason "I have 900 fake bucks on remaining games tonight so I fully expect I will be back in negative territory by morning" Evans

I'm chuckling about my place in the standings. First place for this week (plus $2k), and still last place overall by a wide margin.

[JasonEvans]

I'm chuckling about my place in the standings. First place for this week (plus $2k), and still last place overall by a wide margin.

You gotta take your victories where you can get em. The winner of each weekly contest gets the exact same prize as the overall winner!

By the way, congrats to Packman97 (+2200) for winning week one and to Troublemaker (+2240) for winning week #2. Here are the week #3 standings thus far:

Rasputin + 2000 (4-0)
JasonEvans + 1900 (6-0)
EnglishDBR +1800 (5-0)
krzyzewskiville +1100 (3-0)
Gooch4Duke +1000 (2-0)

The question at this point is do I even bother to bet again or do I sit on my 1900 and perfect record in the hope I can hang on as others inevitably fall back...

-Jason "I'm coming for ya!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ok. The Clearasil bet is Navy vs. Penn. Navy is +5 at Penn. I took Navy and bet 100 in the hopes of losing and getting square with the sharks.

By the way, if folks did not notice, Left Hook made a very good bet here as Penn crushed Navy. Left Hook was able to clear his bad bet in just one game... impressive.

[Pghdukie]

I'm taking whoever plays Pitt. Every game. Give the points for 100 units.

[JasonEvans]

I'm taking whoever plays Pitt. Every game. Give the points for 100 units.

I think a bunch of us tried that... for a lot more than 100 units.

We lost.

I should have known, the moment everyone jumps on a "sure thing" the only sure thing about it is that it is sure to bite you in the butt!

[ChillinDuke]

You fell for that, huh?

Remember, this is a competition. ;-)

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

Aaaaand the winner of week 3 of our contest...

Jason Evans who went 17-8 and earned 3290 cyber bucks. He narrowly edged out LasVegas_Duke who was 13-6 for a +2920.

By the way folks, it is never too late to join the contest. You are allowed to pick things up in the middle if you want. There is no disadvantage to joining at this point. Heck, players like Rasputin, PackMan97, Hingeknocker and several others would love to start over from scratch as they are currently in negative territory (though, as a whole, we are doing quite well thus far).

[left_hook_lacey]

Aaaaand the winner of week 3 of our contest...

Jason Evans who went 17-8 and earned 3290 cyber bucks. He narrowly edged out LasVegas_Duke who was 13-6 for a +2920.

By the way folks, it is never too late to join the contest. You are allowed to pick things up in the middle if you want. There is no disadvantage to joining at this point. Heck, players like Rasputin, PackMan97, Hingeknocker and several others would love to start over from scratch as they are currently in negative territory (though, as a whole, we are doing quite well thus far).

That's a better run than most of the "experts" out there.

I just need to stop picking the o/u bets, I've never been good at those.

[Bob Green]

I've clawed my way back to the positive side of the ledger with a 9-5 performance that earned 1,750 fake dollars.

[LasVegas]

Aaaaand the winner of week 3 of our contest...

Jason Evans who went 17-8 and earned 3290 cyber bucks. He narrowly edged out LasVegas_Duke who was 13-6 for a +2920.

By the way folks, it is never too late to join the contest. You are allowed to pick things up in the middle if you want. There is no disadvantage to joining at this point. Heck, players like Rasputin, PackMan97, Hingeknocker and several others would love to start over from scratch as they are currently in negative territory (though, as a whole, we are doing quite well thus far).

I need to translate this into real world results here locally. I told my wife we could be up big if she would let me bet! Although, it’s a ton easier to slap down $500 of fake money! I also attribute my success to a ton of luck. Duke and MSU really came through for me.

[JasonEvans]

I just need to stop picking the o/u bets, I've never been good at those.

I am absolutely slaying at O/U bets... up almost 1800 fake bucks. I'm going over on Duke and under on Virginia with big bets that have been quite successful.

[Bob Green]

I am absolutely slaying at O/U bets... up almost 1800 fake bucks. I'm going over on Duke and under on Virginia with big bets that have been quite successful.

Going under on Virginia is a good strategy. I'm expecting a low score tonight in the Virginia - Wisconsin game.

[Pghdukie]

I'm waiting for the all-important Pitt/High Point game and betting my Mother-in-law''s house on High Point !

[devildeac]

Going under on Virginia is a good strategy. I'm expecting a low score tonight in the Virginia - Wisconsin game.

First to 40 wins?

(Am I being too generous with scoring estimates? :o)

:rolleyes:

[-jk]

I'm waiting for the all-important Pitt/High Point game and betting my Mother-in-law''s house on High Point !

Trying to get rid of her?

-jk

[Pghdukie]

Both of them ! Thank You !

[pfrduke]

First to 40 wins?

(Am I being too generous with scoring estimates? :o)

:rolleyes:

First to 38 wins, apparently. The O/U was 121.5. That's roughly betting on 65-56 - a low scoring game. The under won by almost as many points (35.5) as Wisconsin scored (37) with the teams combining for 86 points.

[JNort]

I don't bet nearly as often but the bets I do make have been great. 8 and 1 on the season with 2070 fake dollars.


So does anyone here use actual betting sites with real money? I've been thinking about trying it but wasn't sure how safe they were.

[Troublemaker]

I don't bet nearly as often but the bets I do make have been great. 8 and 1 on the season with 2070 fake dollars.


So does anyone here use actual betting sites with real money? I've been thinking about trying it but wasn't sure how safe they were.

There is a site that reviews sportsbooks, like how Rotten Tomatoes reviews movies. Google "SBR". If you choose an A or A+ rated book, you won't have any problems.

BUT...

Don't do it! An 8-1 run is really meaningless (too small a sample) and you could easily be below .500 by the end of the season. Track yourself over two seasons' worth of games and see if you're still a winner.

I estimate less than 1% of bettors can truly beat the books and their vigorish. You're almost certainly not one of them (no offense, just going with probability here).

[JasonEvans]

Don't do it! An 8-1 run is really meaningless (too small a sample) and you could easily be below .500 by the end of the season. Track yourself over two seasons' worth of games and see if you're still a winner.

I estimate less than 1% of bettors can truly beat the books and their vigorish. You're almost certainly not one of them (no offense, just going with probability here).

We are all doing phenomenally well this year, but I 100% agree with my Troubled friend here... betting actual money would probably leave you in the poor house very quickly.

That said, the 300 fake bucks I won on the UVA under last night was easy, easy money.

[JNort]

There is a site that reviews sportsbooks, like how Rotten Tomatoes reviews movies. Google "SBR". If you choose an A or A+ rated book, you won't have any problems.

BUT...

Don't do it! An 8-1 run is really meaningless (too small a sample) and you could easily be below .500 by the end of the season. Track yourself over two seasons' worth of games and see if you're still a winner.

I estimate less than 1% of bettors can truly beat the books and their vigorish. You're almost certainly not one of them (no offense, just going with probability here).

I wasn't trying use that 8-1 to justify it. I just like betting on sports from time to time. I wouldn't do it often or even bet very much. It's the same when I go to the casino, only go once every couple of months and only take what I can afford to lose.

[left_hook_lacey]

I wasn't trying use that 8-1 to justify it. I just like betting on sports from time to time. I wouldn't do it often or even bet very much. It's the same when I go to the casino, only go once every couple of months and only take what I can afford to lose.

http://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline-1-800-522-4700/

[ChillinDuke]

I don't bet nearly as often but the bets I do make have been great. 8 and 1 on the season with 2070 fake dollars.


So does anyone here use actual betting sites with real money? I've been thinking about trying it but wasn't sure how safe they were.

I'm right behind you, JNort, at 8-2.

Let's see how tonight goes, maybe I'll get to 9-2.

- Chillin

[Bob Green]

That said, the 300 fake bucks I won on the UVA under last night was easy, easy money.

As was the 500 fake bucks I won on that under. I placed three bets on tonight's games, all over/under bets.

[peterjswift]

How did I miss this? I love losing fake internet money to remind myself that I should never gamble.

[left_hook_lacey]

I've made the most bets on tonight's games than I have all season. It's boom or bust time.

[English]

I've made the most bets on tonight's games than I have all season. It's boom or bust time.

Tonight's matchups, Duke & unx excluded, IMO, are the toughest thus far to gauge. It's a combination of:

(seemingly) Even matchups--Miami@Minny
Not being able to figure out what the teams are yet--NCSU beat Ariz and immediately lost to UNI
Just not caring enough to pay attention yet--Neb, BC, Clemson, OSU


I'm making fewer bets tonight, but going heavier because they'll be ones in which I'm more confident. I made the mistake last night to go with some uninformed gut calls, and I took a couple of dings. Not tonight.

[Troublemaker]

Man, I really wasn't trying to bet Clemson tonight, but at 5.5? Geez. Kenpom projects the line at 1. That's the definition of "line value."

I think I gotta do it. Can you please just this once, Clemson, not poop the bed in a big game (for you)?

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"

[left_hook_lacey]

Tonight's matchups, Duke & unx excluded, IMO, are the toughest thus far to gauge. It's a combination of:

(seemingly) Even matchups--Miami@Minny
Not being able to figure out what the teams are yet--NCSU beat Ariz and immediately lost to UNI
Just not caring enough to pay attention yet--Neb, BC, Clemson, OSU


I'm making fewer bets tonight, but going heavier because they'll be ones in which I'm more confident. I made the mistake last night to go with some uninformed gut calls, and I took a couple of dings. Not tonight.

Uninformed gut calls are my jam!!



Clemson, not poop the bed in a big game

I'm betting on them Clemsoning.

[JasonEvans]

I made a bunch of middling bets --200 and 300 -- on the games and then one big bet.

500 on Duke to cover. I think we are due for a game where we blow the door off our opponent cause that's how good we are. Plus, I think Indiana is really mediocre.

[left_hook_lacey]

I made a bunch of middling bets --200 and 300 -- on the games and then one big bet.

500 on Duke to cover. I think we are due for a game where we blow the door off our opponent cause that's how good we are. Plus, I think Indiana is really mediocre.

Marvin Bagley once took the under on a +/-0 line.........and won. Oh, wait, wrong thread.

[Bob Green]

I placed four bets on tonight's games. Two against the spread and two over/under bets. I got off to a slow start, but I'm 8-2 in my last 10 wagers so hopefully my hot streak continues tonight.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Marvin Bagley once took the under on a +/-0 line.....and won. Oh, wait, wrong thread.

Yeah... Even in thr proper thread, a "Marvin Bagley gambling" joke might be a bit much for me.

Feel free to flame away at me, but I feel some jokes aren't worth it. And I was proffered a brief vacation thanks to a joke in the presidential election thread referencing 20 year old transgressions (that I thought was pretty funny).

[JNort]

Yeah... Even in thr proper thread, a "Marvin Bagley gambling" joke might be a bit much for me.

Feel free to flame away at me, but I feel some jokes aren't worth it. And I was proffered a brief vacation thanks to a joke in the presidential election thread referencing 20 year old transgressions (that I thought was pretty funny).
Eh idc what the joke is or who it's about. If it's funny it's funny, nothing is off limits to me.

[Troublemaker]

Almost everyone in the top 10 is firing bets left and right tonight. Gonna be some fireworks and maybe a shakeup of the standings before the night is over.

[left_hook_lacey]

Almost everyone in the top 10 is firing bets left and right tonight. Gonna be some fireworks and maybe a shakeup of the standings before the night is over.

More like a sparkler for me that wouldn't light. I took some lumps last night.

[ChillinDuke]

Is anyone else impressed at our collective results thus far?

We only have four people underwater thus far. Out of 25. As far as gambling goes, that's pretty impressive to me.

- Chillin

[left_hook_lacey]

And another lump last night. I'm 1-11 for the week. I'm officially the "cooler". So if anyone wants to go on a hot streak, let me know and I'll send you my picks so you can bet the opposite.

[NYBri]

Is anyone else impressed at our collective results thus far?

We only have four people underwater thus far. Out of 25. As far as gambling goes, that's pretty impressive to me.

- Chillin

Things get dicier once we move into ACC play. :cool:

[ChillinDuke]

UNC couldn't win by 11? Really? Up 16 with with 1 to play?

Hate betting.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

UNC couldn't win by 11? Really? Up 16 with with 1 to play?

Hate betting.

- Chillin

Yup. I had the Heels minus 10.5 (they won by 10) and I had under 159 (total points, 160).

Crushing night... I’m never betting on the darn Tarheela again. Grrrr.

[Bob Green]

I took the over in the Duke/South Dakota game winning 500 fake dollars. The over/under was 159 with 176 points being scored. Easy money! :cool:

[NYBri]

Note to self. Never take the over in an Orange game. They can’t shoot, opponents can’t score against the zone. :cool:

[Troublemaker]

Note to self. Never take the over in an Orange game. They can’t shoot, opponents can’t score against the zone. :cool:

No complaining, Mr. First Place for the second year in a row (although I'll hope to knock you off your perch). Awesome streak to move to the top of the board!

[left_hook_lacey]

Back in black.

[NYBri]

No complaining, Mr. First Place for the second year in a row (although I'll hope to knock you off your perch). Awesome streak to move to the top of the board!

Not complaining. Observing. :cool:

For some reason, I am more drawn to the o/u bets at this point. Teams are hard to nail down this early as far as strengths and weaknesses go.

[Troublemaker]

Not complaining. Observing. :cool:

For some reason, I am more drawn to the o/u bets at this point. Teams are hard to nail down this early as far as strengths and weaknesses go.

You've been on a stunning run, Mr. NYBri.

My temporary strategy for right now is to bet on your regression.

We're going to be oppo

[Troublemaker]

You've been on a stunning run, Mr. NYBri.

My temporary strategy for right now is to bet on your regression.

Unless this post massivley jinxes it, this strategy worked like a charm tonight.

What are you picks tomorrow, Bri? :-)

[Hingeknocker]

Going into this season, my strategy was to go for the max $500 bet every time, because I couldn't trust myself to know when to properly adjust my bets, and figured if I hit on a reasonable % of my bets, I'd profit handsomely. Now that I am in last place, I am sufficiently chastened, and have changed my strategy.

If this doesn't work, the next stop is to quit betting entirely, which is probably for the best.

(Or just wait until ACC season starts and I get reset to $0. Success!)

[ChillinDuke]

Going into this season, my strategy was to go for the max $500 bet every time, because I couldn't trust myself to know when to properly adjust my bets, and figured if I hit on a reasonable % of my bets, I'd profit handsomely. Now that I am in last place, I am sufficiently chastened, and have changed my strategy.

If this doesn't work, the next stop is to quit betting entirely, which is probably for the best.

(Or just wait until ACC season starts and I get reset to $0. Success!)

Wait...

Why on earth would you do that?

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

We're not allowed to take this game, but does anyone see an actionable O/U of 190 for JMU v The Citadel?

190?

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

We're not allowed to take this game, but does anyone see an actionable O/U of 190 for JMU v The Citadel?

190?

- Chillin

Game went for 166. 84-82 Citadel.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Curtis is outplaying us all recently by... not playing, haha. And just waiting for our natural regression to take hold.

I admit it crossed my mind a few times to use that strategy, but (a) I'm a degenerate action junkie who can't stop placing bets, especially since (b) it's just fake money.

[Hingeknocker]

Going into this season, my strategy was to go for the max $500 bet every time, because I couldn't trust myself to know when to properly adjust my bets, and figured if I hit on a reasonable % of my bets, I'd profit handsomely. Now that I am in last place, I am sufficiently chastened, and have changed my strategy.

If this doesn't work, the next stop is to quit betting entirely, which is probably for the best.

(Or just wait until ACC season starts and I get reset to $0. Success!)

I was +$20 last night. We have turned a corner!

[JasonEvans]

I was +$20 last night. We have turned a corner!

I was +450 yesterday... and that's including the first time in history I have bet the under on a Duke game. What was I thinking??!!?! We were due for a game like this.

[curtis325]

Going into this season, my strategy was to go for the max $500 bet every time, because I couldn't trust myself to know when to properly adjust my bets, and figured if I hit on a reasonable % of my bets, I'd profit handsomely. Now that I am in last place, I am sufficiently chastened, and have changed my strategy.

If this doesn't work, the next stop is to quit betting entirely, which is probably for the best.

(Or just wait until ACC season starts and I get reset to $0. Success!)


Wait...

Why on earth would you do that?

- Chillin


Curtis is outplaying us all recently by... not playing, haha. And just waiting for our natural regression to take hold.

I admit it crossed my mind a few times to use that strategy, but (a) I'm a degenerate action junkie who can't stop placing bets, especially since (b) it's just fake money.


I am "in the lead" and I have quit betting entirely. As to "Why on earth", somehow it suddenly stopped being fun. It's hard to explain why it stopped being fun, but I started to feel like the betting changed the way I was viewing the games. I know I should never have placed a bet on the cheats, (but I did because I thought it was easy money) and found myself hoping that they would NOT give up a few meaningless buckets to Davidson at the end of that game. I'm throwing up a little right now just remembering it.

Also, money riding on anything kind of ruins it for me--I don't play Poker and will not play Bridge for money even if the stakes are ridiculously low. It surprised me that the same seems to hold true for fake money (although to a lesser extent). I guess I'm just not degenerate enough.

Good luck to the rest of you "gamblers". I'm confident that many of you will surpass my total, but if not I'll take the win.

[English]

I am "in the lead" and I have quit betting entirely. As to "Why on earth", somehow it suddenly stopped being fun. It's hard to explain why it stopped being fun, but I started to feel like the betting changed the way I was viewing the games. I know I should never have placed a bet on the cheats, (but I did because I thought it was easy money) and found myself hoping that they would NOT give up a few meaningless buckets to Davidson at the end of that game. I'm throwing up a little right now just remembering it.

Also, money riding on anything kind of ruins it for me--I don't play Poker and will not play Bridge for money even if the stakes are ridiculously low. It surprised me that the same seems to hold true for fake money (although to a lesser extent). I guess I'm just not degenerate enough.

Good luck to the rest of you "gamblers". I'm confident that many of you will surpass my total, but if not I'll take the win.

You know this isn't for real money, right?

Your first point--altering the way you watch--holds true for me too, although it's not so much of a bugaboo for me.

Anyway, thanks for setting a nice bar for the rest of us.

[LasVegas]

I played it safe initially and was up to like 3760. Since then I have been making bets left and right. Just having fun with it.....and getting crushed.

[JasonEvans]

Really Western Carolina?!?!? You aren't even going to come close to covering a 32 point spread?!?! Really??!!??!

Sheesh...

[-jk]

Really Western Carolina?!?!? You aren't even going to come close to covering a 32 point spread?!?! Really??!!??!

Sheesh...

oops...

-jk

[Troublemaker]

Good luck to the rest of you "gamblers". I'm confident that many of you will surpass my total, but if not I'll take the win.

Nope, remember, it's actually really hard to be so far above $0, and it was fluky that the league as a whole was doing so well. The regression monster has started to eat some of us. Definitely me.

I think you've got a really good shot at winning. Maybe one person surpasses you. Maybe.

[ChillinDuke]

Really Western Carolina?!?!? You aren't even going to come close to covering a 32 point spread?!?! Really??!!??!

Sheesh...

It was like the hoop had a lid on it. WCU had many wide open shots, seemed like they hit none of them.

It was infuriating. Every time.

- Chillin

[left_hook_lacey]

I keep betting big, hoping to crack one way or the other, but I keep breaking even. Then the Vig, she comes a knockin'.

[Hingeknocker]

This may have been covered already, but are we including tomorrow's Duke/BC game in the Pre-ACC contest?

[OldPhiKap]

Haven’t played in a while, going for boom or bust today.

[JasonEvans]

This may have been covered already, but are we including tomorrow's Duke/BC game in the Pre-ACC contest?

Yes. We will start a new contest for ACC games only in January. I know this seems counter-intuitive, but the arbitrary rules are gonna be what they gonna be.

[JasonEvans]

The weekly winner is really up for grabs. No one with a clear advantage:

1 LasVegas_Duke 8-6-0 57.14% +500
2 ChillinDuke 1-2-0 33.33% +280
3 dw4duke 6-5-0 54.55% +250
4 JasonEvans 8-6-0 57.14% +150
5 krzyzewskiville 3-4-0 42.86% +30
6 rasputinDBR 6-5-0 54.55% -20
7 left_hook_lacey 2-2-0 50.00% -100

[Troublemaker]

My first (and hopefully only) user mistake this season -- I meant to bet Louisville but bet Indiana instead -- so let's see how it works out. The way I figure it, this is yet another ACC-Big 10 Challenge game, and we know the ACC dominated the Challenge (both straight up and against the spread). But clicking on the right things is part of this game we're playing. I will of course accept the result, either way. Maybe I turned a losing bet into a winning bet.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Haven’t played in a while, going for boom or bust today.

Ha. Haven't been playing very long, but took your approach and have managed to knock Hingeknocker right out of last place in less than a week.

[OldPhiKap]

Ha. Haven't been playing very long, but took your approach and have managed to knock Hingeknocker right out of last place in less than a week.

I had a pretty good day, other than the only game I really care about in reality.

[Troublemaker]

krzyzewskiville has also been inactive recently and is now in second place, so our top 2 have not been making bets. Telling you, it's a pretty good strategy, whether on purpose or not.

[Troublemaker]

krzyzewskiville has also been inactive recently and is now in second place, so our top 2 have not been making bets. Telling you, it's a pretty good strategy, whether on purpose or not.

kville was patient and made his/her move today! And should be our new first place once this FSU game finishes. Well done!

[Troublemaker]

Saturday will be a huge betting day. Tons of games to bet on.

You can put this competition out of reach, kville, with a good day. But you would also risk falling under the Curtis Line with a bad day.

I'll be interested to see how you play it.

[Troublemaker]

Does anybody remember me betting the under on BC/Columbia yesterday? I could've sworn I put that in but Covers doesn't appear to be giving me credit for it. (Not a huge deal -- just want to make sure I'm not going crazy here.)

[ChillinDuke]

Does anybody remember me betting the under on BC/Columbia yesterday? I could've sworn I put that in but Covers doesn't appear to be giving me credit for it. (Not a huge deal -- just want to make sure I'm not going crazy here.)

I didn't check. I also didn't check how many people bet on Columbia to cover yesterday. I meant to go contra and bet on BC (which hit) but got tied up at work.

I figured a lot of people around these parts would bet on BC fecesing the bed after playing skull nutty against us.

- Chillin

[English]

I didn't check. I also didn't check how many people bet on Columbia to cover yesterday. I meant to go contra and bet on BC (which hit) but got tied up at work.

I figured a lot of people around these parts would bet on BC fecesing the bed after playing skull nutty against us.

- Chillin

Oh, absolutely--count me among those that anticipated the Duke curse ensuring the Lions' covering the -11.5 spread. Also, the Lions were an abysmal 1-9 on the season, but many of their losses have been closer than anticipated. Of course, that didn't happen, so my free fall continues.

[ChillinDuke]

Nearly full slate on Saturday. Nearly.

Can't wait. Got the itch.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Nearly full slate on Saturday. Nearly.

Can't wait. Got the itch.

- Chillin

Bump.

I would say anyone with < $3000 should be max-betting, well, everything today if the goal is to still finish in first place. Thanks to finals and winter break, there just aren't THAT many games left in December. Also, since going 10-0 today is far-fetched, you want to maximize the amount you win if you pull off a 6-4 or 7-3 day by max-betting.

[JasonEvans]

Bump.

I would say anyone with < $3000 should be max-betting, well, everything today if the goal is to still finish in first place. Thanks to finals and winter break, there just aren't THAT many games left in December. Also, since going 10-0 today is far-fetched, you want to maximize the amount you win if you pull off a 6-4 or 7-3 day by max-betting.

4-0 and up $1600 so far today... looking pretty good in all my other picks too. Could be huge!!

[LasVegas]

I was sick with a nasty cold the last week so I’ve been out of the game. I planned on going all out eventually. Like my favorite nascar driver said “if you ain’t first, you’re last. “

[JasonEvans]

4-0 and up $1600 so far today... looking pretty good in all my other picks too. Could be huge!!

Got to 5-0 and then FSU busted my win streak today. My chances are going to come down to ND covering and getting over 142 against IU.

[kshepinthehouse]

If you’re simply picking the winner in college football contests, is there anything better than the Vegas line? And would you all agree that KenPom is the best for picking college basketball winners? No spread

[JasonEvans]

So, I think I have figured this thing out... I'm sticking to O/U.

I am currently +4170 betting the over-under and -250 betting against the spread. Put another way, I am in 1st place, out of 26 contestants, when I bet the O/U, but am in 16th place (also out of 26) when I bet the line.

I'm only betting totals from now on (he said knowing he would not keep that promise).

-Jason "we are having a tough week so far... I'm +170 for the week... which makes me the only person in positive territory thus far. Yikes!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

This page (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/duke)may be wrong, but it appears that Duke has hit the Over in every single game this season in which a number has existed. Wow... can we keep that up? I'm on us for the Over again tonight.

[JasonEvans]

This page (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/duke)may be wrong, but it appears that Duke has hit the Over in every single game this season in which a number has existed. Wow... can we keep that up? I'm on us for the Over again tonight.

Well, that was quite a stat jinx by me.

Of course, I bet the over and lost. I’m gonna get crushed tonight, I can feel it.

[Bob Green]

I'm on us for the Over again tonight.

I lost 500 fake dollars tonight and would love to blame it on Jason, but my bet was in before his quoted post.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, that was quite a stat jinx by me.

Of course, I bet the over and lost. I’m gonna get crushed tonight, I can feel it.

I didn't check the particulars, but I am willing to bet Duke managed to beat the spread.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I know this sounds crazy, but I'll take Wofford over Carolina straight up. 😂

[ChillinDuke]

I just watched that garbage time bucket by USM to sink the FSU under. I see TM had it - bummer.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

I just watched that garbage time bucket by USM to sink the FSU under. I see TM had it - bummer.

- Chillin

Joel Berry had a garbage time 3 last night in the final 10 seconds that sunk an under as well. Not that I terribly minded.

The Regression Monster chased me for weeks and I avoided it for awhile but he has caught me and ate me alive this week.

[JasonEvans]

I
Went
Insane
This
Week!

-Jason "and I am terrified of regression to the mean at this point" Evans

[JasonEvans]

With just a few days left in the contest... I'd say the top is pretty close.

https://image.ibb.co/gnbwjw/Covers_snip.jpg

[JasonEvans]

And then there was one... one game left in 2017 until this contest is done.

So, can I hang on? A couple big wins on the under this afternoon have me in first place for the first time. The O/U is killing for me!!

7950

-Jason "+6810 on O/U bets, -50 against the spread" Evans

[Troublemaker]

Congrats, Jason!

What a hot streak you went on towards the end of the contest to take the crown.

Well-played as well, k-ville.

Edit: oh wait, looks like there's a game tomorrow.

[NYBri]

Congrats, Jason!

What a hot streak you went on towards the end of the contest to take the crown.

Well-played as well, k-ville.

Edit: oh wait, looks like there's a game tomorrow.

Indeed. Quite a closing run!

Are we going to have an ACC contest?

[peterjswift]

Is there a link to the ACC contest yet? Maybe I just missed it?

[JasonEvans]

Is there a link to the ACC contest yet? Maybe I just missed it?

Not yet... I'll get to it soon as I can. Next few hours, I think.