ACC Pre-season Predictions are out

[lavell12]

http://www.goduke.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=1285124

[pfrduke]

Those lists all look pretty good, except I think Virginia's a little high and Florida St. is a little low. Anybody know how many times a team has been unanimously picked to finish first in the ACC, and how those teams have fared?

[Wander]

I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?

[phaedrus]

I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?

picking the preseason starting 5?

[ACCBBallFan]

I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?

MEDIA POLL
1. UNC (64)
2. Duke
3. N.C. State
4. Clemson
5. Virginia
6. Maryland
7. Georgia Tech
8. Boston College
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Wake Forest
12. Miami

I agree with you and think Mimai finishes in top half of ACC, not 12th where Media picks them.

Rest of the poll looks pretty close to what I think, after taking ACC unbalanced schedule into consideration:

1. UNC (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. NC St (3)
4. GA T (7)
5. Miami (12)
6. Clemson (4)
7. MD (6)
8. UVA (5)
9. FSU (9)
10. BC (8)
11. VA T (10)
12. Wake (11)

[riverside6]

Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ToughestSchedule.asp).

[feldspar]

Pre-season polls are pointless.

[mapei]

Well, they're certainly *very* unreliable - but I wouldn't agree that they are pointless, given that the point for many fans is to have fun.

[ACCBBallFan]

Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ToughestSchedule.asp).
Did you just look at strength of the opponents without regard to which of the single games are only at home or only on the road?

I agree GA Tech and MD by far have the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule and VA Tech has it pretty easy as well.

However, Clemson only plays the bottom feeders once, and all three are at home and thus somewhat wasted vs. BC, VA Tech and Wake.

IMO, the ACC unbalanced schedule may again hurt Clemson and FSU chances of a higher ACC finish and an NCAA berth, since GA Tech and MD are helped like UVA was last year.

A lot depends on how one weighs the ACC. I assume you used the media poll which would explain 12th rated Miami having the toughest schedule, whereas I used

UNC
Duke
NC St
GA Tech
Miami
Clemson
MD
UVA
FSU
BC
VA Tech
Wake

[Bob Green]

No real suprises in the pre-season voting. Carolina followed by Duke makes sense to me. State finishing third will be dependent upon their Point Guard. Tyler Hansbrough as POY and Kyle Singler as ROY is once again conventional wisdom.

Of course, now we have to play the games and see how the season unfolds. Let the games begin!

[riverside6]

Good point. Home games and away games are treated equally. If I have time, I'll adjust it slightly to factor in away games being more difficult.

[devildeac]

Pre-season polls are pointless.

Do you have a poll to prove that?:)

How can feldspar be banned and have a recent post on the board?:)

[riverside6]

Did you just look at strength of the opponents without regard to which of the single games are only at home or only on the road?

I agree GA Tech and MD by far have the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule and VA Tech has it pretty easy as well.

However, Clemson only plays the bottom feeders once, and all three are at home and thus somewhat wasted vs. BC, VA Tech and Wake.

IMO, the ACC unbalanced schedule may again hurt Clemson and FSU chances of a higher ACC finish and an NCAA berth, since GA Tech and MD are helped like UVA was last year.

A lot depends on how one weighs the ACC. I assume you used the media poll which would explain 12th rated Miami having the toughest schedule, whereas I used

UNC
Duke
NC St
GA Tech
Miami
Clemson
MD
UVA
FSU
BC
VA Tech
Wake
Ok, here is a slightly different view to the Toughest Schedule page (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/toughestschedule.asp?homeweighting=1) that gives 25% more weight to away games. This views gives Duke a slightly favorable schedule.

[yancem]

Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ToughestSchedule.asp).

I'm glad that for once we don't have one of the 2 or 3 hardest schedules. It doesn't bother me as much when a team like UVA gets an advantage in scheduling but a few years ago when UNC had one of the easiest schedules, that was BS. How would their '05 season have turned out if they had gotten a tougher draw. With some of their consistency issues they might have lost a few more ACC games which would have lead to a lower NCAA seed and maybe no ring for Ol' Roy.

Just speculations but after last season, I wouldn't mind not having the toughest road. A little gravy might be nice.

[throatybeard]

How can feldspar be banned and have a recent post on the board?:)

He wrote that one 9 minutes before the PPB post that led to his, er, stint in the time-out chair.

[Zeb]

I thought the Q&A with Coach K was interesting regarding Paulus.

On junior point guard Greg Paulus:
“He was our best shooter and still is our best shooter. Greg can shoot the ball. … He needs to remember to do that.

Whether he starts or comes off the bench, for any of our players, they are not going to play the minutes. Nolan Smith is a really good player and is a little bit different player.”

Bringing up Smith's name when asked about Paulus was telling. Broaching the idea of Paulus coming off the bench with no prompting may be just K's way of motivating Greg. But it might also indicate K has by no means made up his mind about the starting PG, which is encouraging. I hope he keeps his options open, stay true to his statements about earning time in practice, and lets the best player win the minutes.

[gw67]

Zeb - I apologize if I've read something into your post that is not there. I've always thought that Coach K will play his best players (injury and discipline aside) and that he relys on practices to identify those youngsters. You and others on the board seem to be saying that if he does that, Smith will win out. That may be the case but what happens if Paulus starts? Does that mean that Coach K has changed his ways or that you will think that he is a poor judge of talent? I realize that this is a sports board and all of us have differing opinions on who should play but the number of jabs that Paulus and Scheyer have gotten in the past seven months on this board have been over the top, IMO. I expect all three freshmen to contribute this coming season. I also expect Paulus and Scheyer to play vital roles for the Devils.

gw67

[mapei]

I think people are just trying to avoid what happened last year. It's hard to feel sanguine about the same guys who lost 7 in a row and looked pretty mediocre doing it. For me, I'm sure K feels the same way and, if he decides that starting Paulus and Scheyer gives us the best chance to win, I trust him.

[monkey]

OK, when was the last time Clemson was picked as high as fourth?

Also interesting that we are number 2 but with no one on the pre-season All-ACC squad. The voters must really like our freshman ...

[Zeb]

I didn't mean my prior comments (or this one) to be a jab at Greg, although I can understand why you might think that.

In general its ridiculous to think that K does anything other than play the best players he's got. No argument. I guess I have had fears that given Paulus' role as Duke's point guard since his freshman year, there might be a tendency to just pencil him in this year. I was encouraged by these comments that it does not appear that will happen.

If Greg starts at PG, I think it means that he's the best man for the job. My personal opinion is that Greg has turned out to be more of a shooting guard. His shooting at the end of last year really suprised me (and I agree with K's assessment that is one of his strengths). However I think he is not as proficient with the skills you'd like to see in a traditional Duke PG--providing good on the ball defense of opposing ball handlers, creating easy shots for others, protecting the ball. I have watched Nolan play only briefly, but he seems to have a great handle and a great ability to defend up top. Not sure how good he is at distributing or scoring in general for that matter.

I guess to summarize, I think Nolan is an intriguing talent and offers an option at PG that we didn't have last year. The reason I posted was that I was happy to see K seems open to using it. Maybe that he would do so is obvious, but it reassured me.

[riverside6]

Also interesting that we are number 2 but with no one on the pre-season All-ACC squad. The voters must really like our freshman ...

I think it's evidence that this is viewed as a pretty balanced Duke team with several different players that could breakout on a given night. That's probably a good thing, although I question what it means in clutch situations. Perhaps this is why K is putting the players in these situations more often in practice.

[gw67]

Zeb - We are on the same page. Like most fans, I was very frustrated with the 4-8 finish last year and I hope for a major improvement this year. Paulus and Scheyer appeared to give it their all during those 12 games although one was coming off an injury and the other seemed to be playing on tired legs. I think that the perimeter group of Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer and Smith will be very strong this year. I have high hopes for Smith who is a local youngster from the Maryland burbs. His dad was a top player for Louisville (I believe that he started as a sixteen year old freshman) and was a coach for the Wizards.

gw67

[ACCBBallFan]

My personal opinion is that Greg has turned out to be more of a shooting guard. His shooting at the end of last year really suprised me (and I agree with K's assessment that is one of his strengths). However I think he is not as proficient with the skills you'd like to see in a traditional Duke PG--providing good on the ball defense of opposing ball handlers, creating easy shots for others, protecting the ball. I have watched Nolan play only briefly, but he seems to have a great handle and a great ability to defend up top. Not sure how good he is at distributing or scoring in general for that matter.

I guess to summarize, I think Nolan is an intriguing talent and offers an option at PG that we didn't have last year. The reason I posted was that I was happy to see K seems open to using it. Maybe that he would do so is obvious, but it reassured me.

I share that opinion. Even if Nolan starts, it does not mean that Greg does not play the SG as a starter. In fact, I like Greg and Jon sharing the SG slot where their main job is to pull the trigger Jon is sometimes reluctant to pull, and to assist Nolan as secondary PG.

Similarly Nelson could start and go full out knowing he has a more than capable sub in Gerald.

Singler at the 4 with McClure ready as defensive sub and King Taylor for Offense.

Lance and Zoubek share the 5 spot with King available if fouls mount or Duke needs to spread the floor.

Hard to find a spot for Marty other than when Greg/Jon have to be primary PG while Nolan is resting, Marty may play some SG/WF, or when Gerald has to play the small 4 and Singler the 5 if fouls mount.