Pre-Season NBA Draft Board

[BandAlum83]

I just saw the Bleacher Report 2018 Pre-season click-bait draft board. (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2741457?iid=ob_article_organicsidebar_expansion)

Under fair use, and for your reading pleasure, here are the Duke players on the list and their associated blurbs:


25. Grayson Allen (Duke, SG, Senior)

A productive year on the floor and setback-free one off it are keys to Allen's first-round chances. There will be interest in his shot-making and ability to put pressure on defenses with his explosive athleticism. It would certainly reflect favorably on Allen if he showed scouts some leadership as the senior and No. 1 option for a title contender. NBA teams could potentially see him bringing offense and energy off the bench. But given his history, scouts will want to make sure he can be coachable and liked by teammates. (Wankers!!!! His teammates and Coach K love him!)

21. Trevon Duval (Duke, PG, Freshman)

Duval's skills are far behind his physical tools and athleticism, which create upside. He'll have to convince scouts his handle, floor game and shooting are on track to keep improving. Still, for Duke, he'll work as an effective setup man and transition weapon who'll put pressure on defenses by attacking. Maintaining a respectable three-point percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio should be enough for Duval to go first round.

14. Gary Trent Jr. (Duke, SG, Freshman)

There were initially questions about Gary Trent Jr.'s early role with Grayson Allen back and Trevon Duval running the point. But Trent started alongside both (15 points) during Duke's exhibition game against Northwest Missouri. And it seemed pretty obvious he's ready to play a big role for the Blue Devils right away.

A pure scorer, Trent is already dangerous around the perimeter with his three-ball (???? Do they mean his mid-range? LOL) and ability to separate and shoot off the dribble. And he'll find ways to convert off improvisation using unconventional runners around the key.

He'll have to avoid stopping ball movement, taking bad shots and going through prolonged slumps. But Trent will draw NBA interest for his scoring and shot-making, assuming he's consistent and productive enough after one year at Duke. It wouldn't be shocking if Trent stayed for two seasons.

13. Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke, PF/C, Freshman)

Wendell Carter Jr. has played in front of scouts since his USA Basketball debut in 2015, and he'll have a starting role for arguably the nation's top team. The big question early is what his role will entail with bigs Marvin Bagley III and Marques Bolden also in the mix.

Still, Carter's enormous physical tools—6'10", 259 pounds, 7'3" wingspan—won't go unnoticed. He's a good bet to shoot a high percentage and a candidate to lead the team in boards.

He has Al Horford's old-school, non-flashy, fundamentally sound offensive game. (Didn't someone on the boards here compare him to Al Horford?) But will Carter have the opportunity to fully showcase his post moves and jumper, given Duke's plethora of 4s and 5s plus Trevon Duval, Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr.?

4. Marvin Bagley III (Duke, PF, Freshman)

Though he's the top athlete among elite prospects, Marvin Bagley III will build his draft case with developing skills that fuel inside-out scoring versatility.

His jumper is still a work in progress, which is the primary reason why three prospects are ranked higher. Still, Bagley is going to give his offense easy baskets off transition, cuts, lobs and putbacks both in college and the pros. And between his budding post game, quickness and ability to handle, attack and convert on the move, he's still a tough one-on-one cover without credible shooting range.

Scouts have raved about his motor. Looking capable enough from outside and showing he can defend the paint and switch around the perimeter ultimately will be key to Bagley maxing out his draft stock.

And for the curious, the top 3 are:

3. Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri, SF/PF, Freshman)
2. DeAndre Ayton (Arizona, C, Freshman)
1. Luka Doncic (Slovenia, PG/SG, 1999)


I suppose it's not too hard to understand why Duke is preseason #1 with 5 projected 1st rounders on the team. Of course, the NBA drafts on potential, but hopefully the potential of these five and the bench will show itself this season!

Discuss...

[jimsumner]

Be careful how to say "Draft Board" to people of my age. :)

[BandAlum83]

Be careful how to say "Draft Board" to people of my age. :)

Even if it were to happen, Jim, I believe we are both too old to go at this point. :)

[MartyClark]

Even if it were to happen, Jim, I believe we are both too old to go at this point. :)

I got the letter from President Nixon 45 years ago. Had an uneventful couple of years, largely at Ft. Benning.

I have a recurring dream that I get a second draft notice and, even at my advanced age, I have to serve.

[Pghdukie]

My Draft # was 42 if anyone remembers that system !

[kAzE]

I'm pretty shocked that the article itself wasn't an annoying slideshow with 15 ads inserted. Folks at Bleacher Report are slacking.

[jimsumner]

Okay, I'll try to do my penance and try to get the thread back on track.

With the proviso that this is one person's view of one snapshot of one point in time, I find it most interesting that Trent is ahead of Allen and Duval and almost even with Carter.

He must have put on a show for the NBA scouts in that closed scrimmage.

And yes, Allen is not viewed as a villain in the Duke community. That's such an tired and intellectually lazy argument.

[BandAlum83]

Okay, I'll try to do my penance and try to get the thread back on track.

With the proviso that this is one person's view of one snapshot of one point in time, I find it most interesting that Trent is ahead of Allen and Duval and almost even with Carter.

He must have put on a show for the NBA scouts in that closed scrimmage.

And yes, Allen is not viewed as a villain in the Duke community. That's such an tired and intellectually lazy argument.

Two Hail Mary's and an Our Father and your penance is complete.

I wonder if he was popping 3s at that pro scout day?

[DukieInBrasil]

interesting that Bolden is not on that list. Considering his performance from last year, and from 1.5 games this year, i wouldn't put him on a 1st round board either.
Also interesting that they list Duval as 21, yet Trent is 14, and Trent gets mentioned as possibly needing a 2nd yr at Duke but not Duval. Seems counter-intuitive.
What if Bolden AND DeLaurier have impressive seasons as reserves/alternate-starters and go 1st round in addition to all these guys?

[Billy Dat]

Where's Javin?

Too soon?

;^)

[Kedsy]

What if Bolden AND DeLaurier have impressive seasons as reserves/alternate-starters and go 1st round in addition to all these guys?

Then Duke will have had a *really* good season.

[BandAlum83]

interesting that Bolden is not on that list. Considering his performance from last year, and from 1.5 games this year, i wouldn't put him on a 1st round board either.
Also interesting that they list Duval as 21, yet Trent is 14, and Trent gets mentioned as possibly needing a 2nd yr at Duke but not Duval. Seems counter-intuitive.
What if Bolden AND DeLaurier have impressive seasons as reserves/alternate-starters and go 1st round in addition to all these guys?

The list goes to #50, so second round also.

My guess is that they are both projected to remain another year. Based on Bolden's size alone, I would think he would project somewhere in the second round. But maybe he would go undrafted and be signed a la MP3?

[DukieInBrasil]

The list goes to #50, so second round also.

My guess is that they are both projected to remain another year. Based on Bolden's size alone, I would think he would project somewhere in the second round. But maybe he would go undrafted and be signed a la MP3?

if Bolden didn't project in the 2nd round after this year, went undrafted and got signed a la MP3 i think that would take place after his Sr. year. I don't see Bolden leaving after this season if it's not via the draft.


Then Duke will have had a *really* good season.
indubitably

[ElSid]

Every year these days it seems like there are "generational" talents. But this draft looks incredibly strong. Doncic is the real deal and certainly so is Porter Jr. I'm less sold on Ayton at this point because I don't see the same perimeter potential as Porter Jr or Bagley III.

Someone grabbing Bagley, the "2nd coming of Anthony Davis," with the 4th pick would be a steal.

Hard to pass on Doncic who looks like Slovenian LeBron.

As for our other guys, clearly Grayson has a huge opportunity to outperform this very conservative projection. If he stays healthy, it's easy to imagine him averaging in the mid 20s this season, while showcasing other playmaking abilities and defense.

Love the stretch goal of Javin and Bolden both getting in 1st round, too. Would that be a record? Probably tied with a past Kentucky team for most 1st round picks in one year.

[Troublemaker]

Marvin's wingspan is NOT short for his height, it's average (7 ft, measured several times...)...and with not especially wide shoulders, there's no way his arms can be deemed short for his height.

One has to be looking for things to criticize to cite his arm length as an issue.

The context of the discussion was top-5 status in the NBA draft.

Within that context, Marvin's 7'-0" wingspan absolutely is a problem for him among NBA executives, especially if he continues to have a relatively low blocked-shot rate. Big men drafted in that range routinely have wingspans that range from 7'3" to 7'8".

With that said, you are correct that among normal human beings, his arms are not short for his height.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

My Draft # was 42 if anyone remembers that system !
Mine was 176 ( I think?). They only got to the 40’s in 1972.

[fraggler]

The context of the discussion was top-5 status in the NBA draft.

Within that context, Marvin's 7'-0" wingspan absolutely is a problem for him among NBA executives, especially if he continues to have a relatively low blocked-shot rate. Big men drafted in that range routinely have wingspans that range from 7'3" to 7'8".

With that said, you are correct that among normal human beings, his arms are not short for his height.

Blake Griffin has relatively short arms for his height as well, was drafted high, and has done ok for himself. While their body types are not similar, the way they play, especially young Blake, is very similar. Bagley's second jump (his first isn't too bad either) is elite, even for an NBA player. His motor, coordination and mobility for his size are all great as well. His jumper mechanics look pretty solid, so there is good potential there, as well. He may never be an elite shot blocker, but due to his coordination and speed, he could be a very good defender with time. I think his lack of elite wingspan is overblown.

[IrishDevil]

Blake Griffin has relatively short arms for his height as well, was drafted high, and has done ok for himself. While their body types are not similar, the way they play, especially young Blake, is very similar. Bagley's second jump (his first isn't too bad either) is elite, even for an NBA player. His motor, coordination and mobility for his size are all great as well. His jumper mechanics look pretty solid, so there is good potential there, as well. He may never be an elite shot blocker, but due to his coordination and speed, he could be a very good defender with time. I think his lack of elite wingspan is overblown.

Not in a position to search for this info at the moment, but since Marvin's shoulder's are fairly narrow, is his standing reach listed anywhere? For a big man, that is arguably the more pertinent stat than wingspan.

[MChambers]

Not in a position to search for this info at the moment, but since Marvin's shoulder's are fairly narrow, is his standing reach listed anywhere? For a big man, that is arguably the more pertinent stat than wingspan.

NBADraft.net says 8'9".

[BD80]

Not in a position to search for this info at the moment, but since Marvin's shoulder's are fairly narrow, is his standing reach listed anywhere? For a big man, that is arguably the more pertinent stat than wingspan.

We won't be drafting anyone with a long neck (right Jerry?), or the Irish!

[CDu]

This already seems a bit outdated (even though published Nov 1), as I can't imagine Trent going ahead of Duval at this point. Or that Carter will have concerns finding a role with Bagley and Bolden.

[Troublemaker]

As for Bagley, he needs to develop his moves to the right and learn to finish well with the right hand. That's about the only thing he needs to work on.

In addition, he needs to be able to move his feet when switched onto a smaller player. As mentioned elsewhere, the Southern guards toasted him repeatedly.

The NBA is becoming more and more switch-heavy in their defensive schemes, and if Marvin doesn't end up being able to protect the basket due to his lack of elite length, then he needs to be able to make his defensive impact on switches.


You think Bagley's bag of tricks will work in the NBA? That's what I'm concerned about moreso than measurements (and I'm not concerned about Bagley's measurements). Bagley relies on speed and second opportunities. His speed would be impressive but not otherworldly in the NBA. And those second opportunities? Gone.

You don't think he'll grab o-boards in the NBA? I think he will. Of all Marvin's many skills and talents, that second jump is the most impressive. His rebounding will translate.



Bagley - assuming he plays the 4 in the NBA - needs to shoot better. And unlike a lot on this forum, I believe shooting is a difficult skill to learn. Look at Winslow and (to a lesser degree) Ingram - both are really struggling to shoot from deep in the NBA.

There's a pretty good chance he'll end up a 5 in the NBA since the league continues to downsize. But you're right that if he ends up showing much better shooting than he has so far (including his numbers at the high school level (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21402837/duke-blue-devils-talented-freshmen-need-refine-shooting-skills)), that will do wonders for his stock and career.


I really shouldn't comment on what will work in the NBA, since whenever I turn it on I get bored after 5 minutes and go do something else.

But Bagley seems very "long" to me, measurements be damned, and I think he'll be able to get his shot off inside in the NBA, with his quickness. As for shooting, he's got a nice stroke, and I think he'll improve dramatically. On defense, he gets after it and works hard. Doesn't get lost very often.

Length is more a defensive concern rather than offensive. I agree he'll get his shot off inside. But who cares unless post scoring becomes en vogue again (which is possible, as it's a way to punish switches.)


I think his lack of elite wingspan is overblown.

I agree and have Marvin solidly in the top 10. I'm very high on him.

[BandAlum83]

Here's a list published Nov 12 by Sporting News:

NBA Mock Draft 2018: Luka Doncic rises above top college prospects in fight for No. 1 spot (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2018-picks-order-bulls-kings-suns-mavericks-michael-porter-jr-marvin-bagley-iii-luka-doncic/1ppi2awklqc7x160buc8pvp4vr)

They even project draft spots by team picking.

Duke Players on the list:

26. Hawks (via Timberwolves) — Grayson Allen, Duke

If Grayson Allen can somehow combine his sophomore and junior seasons, he’ll be a valuable NBA player as a scoring option off the bench. As a sophomore, Allen shot 41.7 percent from behind the arc on 6.6 attempts per 40 minutes.

Last season, that shooting percentage dipped, but Allen became an elite pick-and-roll ball-handler, averaging 0.974 points per possession (90th percentile), per Synergy. Allen probably won’t ever be much of a defender in the NBA. However, he could eventually find a role because of his efficient offense.

12. Grizzlies — Trevon Duval, Duke

Trevon Duval is an uber athletic point guard with a 6-10 wingspan to match. He’s at his best attacking defenses off the dribble, getting into the lane and throwing down vicious dunks.

His lack of a jump shot, though, is a major concern that will shape how opposing teams defend him both in one-on-one situations and in pick-and-roll. To be more than an average point guard, Duval needs to put in serious work developing a serviceable jumper.


11. Magic — Wendell Carter, Duke

He may end up playing fourth or fifth fiddle on a loaded Duke squad, but Wendell Carter is an excellent NBA prospect in his own right. Carter is a polished post scorer with decent touch on his jump shot already. He’s also excellent cleaning up the boards on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps most importantly, Carter is a good passer, which is becoming a near requirement for any big man who is going to have a substantial offensive role.

2. Mavericks — Marvin Bagley III, Duke

Duke’s Marvin Bagley has arguably the most compelling case for challenging Luka Doncic for the No. 1 spot. At 6-11, Bagley is destined to slot in at one of the frontcourt positions, although which one remains a bit unclear.

Right now, Bagley is more of a center who can provide some intriguing mismatches on the offensive end because of his ability to handle and shoot the ball. The problem? Bagley isn’t elite at either of those things yet. He’s more theoretical than actual.

Bagley is a very good athlete without great measurements, but he should be able to protect the rim defensively and switch out on the perimeter in time. Because of his size and athleticism, Bagley may have the most upside in the class. It’s just a question of if he can put it all together.

The major differences (Don't know if it's due to seeing a few weeks of play) are:


Bagley is up to number 2 on this list ahead of Ayton (4) and Porter (3) (Mo Bamba is #5)
Gary Trent is not on the list at all
Duval is WAY higher on this list

[BandAlum83]

Yahoo Sports top 5 and Duke entries. Again, no Gary Trent. Clearly, even the "professionals disagree on the top 5 order.

See here (https://sports.yahoo.com/2018-nba-draft-big-board-141718777.html)for the full listing of 60 top prospects.


1. DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona | Freshman

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 260 pounds | Age: 19

Elite physical tools, soft touch around the basket and a promising jump shot make Ayton a tantalizing prospect. He has most of the traits you want in a modern center plus the athletic ability to face up and play in space. The college game comes easily to him, and if he answers questions about his effort, Ayton will have a strong case atop the draft. He’s a manchild with crazy-high upside and a potential franchise cornerstone.

2. Marvin Bagley III, F/C, Duke | Freshman

Height: 6'11" | Weight: 235 | Age: 18

Known for his aggression on the glass and overall competitiveness, Bagley manufactures easy baskets and possesses uncommonly fluid athleticism for a guy his size. He should become highly versatile on the defensive end. His growth as a scorer in the halfcourt will ultimately make or break him, and his jump shot is a work in progress, but his makeup and base strengths give his value a solid floor.

3. Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid

Height: 6'8" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18

At 18, Doncic has become perhaps the top player in the Euroleague and a potential No. 1 pick. He’s comfortable as a lead ball-handler and has become deadly from three-point range. He makes his teammates better and readstoday a the floor well beyond his years. While he will face an adjustment to the speed of NBA defenses, there’s not really much to nitpick here. Doncic appears a safe bet to continue on the fast track and contribute at a high level.

4. Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri | Freshman

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 215 | Age: 19

Porter is a smooth, polished scorer who thrives on the perimeter and should be able to play either forward spot. Shooting is at a premium, and Porter’s ball-handling and perimeter skills give him a chance to contribute immediately. He can be a ball-stopper, and rounding out his game with playmaking and defense are the next steps, but he’s a pretty ideal frontcourt prospect in the pace-and-space era.

5. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas | Freshman

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 225 | Age: 19

With off-the-charts length and impressive mobility, Bamba is potentially a dominant interior defender. His 7’9” wingspan deserves a sentence of its own. He has a slender frame and continues to round out his offensive skill set, but has shown ability as a jump shooter and is a constant threat to catch lobs. Bamba has an opportunity to evolve into a defensive-minded antidote for the young, perimeter-oriented big men beginning to take over the NBA.

9. Wendell Carter Jr., F/C, Duke | Freshman

Height: 6'10" | Weight: 260 | Age: 18

Carter has a well-rounded offensive game, with the ability to score with his back to the basket as well as face up and hit a jump shot. He’s an intelligent offensive player with good size and strength to battle inside. Although he’s not a bad athlete, he’s not especially explosive and can struggle when defenses collapse on him around the basket and alter his shot. Scouts will wonder how he’ll adjust to facing NBA length every night, and if he can become a consistent threat shooting threes.

14. Trevon Duval, PG, Duke | Freshman

Height: 6'3" | Weight: 185 | Age: 19

Early in the season, Duval has shown improvement in every area of his game, save for his biggest weakness: his jumper. Duval has great size and length, can be an elite on-ball defender, makes plays in transition and has begun to slow the game down from a mental standpoint. But he’s essentially a non-factor shooting from the outside at this stage, with a lack of consistency and touch. Duval is talented enough for the lottery, but could be held back by his struggles from outside.

24. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke | Senior

Height: 6'4" | Weight: 205 | Age: 22

Allen is among the top distance shooters in the draft. He's able to get his jumper off both in tight spaces off the dribble and on the catch. He has a well-developed sense of how to get open and get to his spots, and he’s a strong athlete who can attack a closeout and keep defenders from playing him too closely. Allen may not be an impactful NBA defender, but he’s certainly not a stiff. He’s tough, competes hard, and looks tailored for an NBA role.

[CDu]

Yeah, these last two are much more reasonable. I suspect that the reason Duval was so low (if #21 can be called low) is because that was right about the time of that weird "Duval is a questionable PG" tweet by Goodman, and coming off Trent having monster shooting nights in the exhibitions. But since the games started counting, it's been clear that (a) Duval is a stud and (b) Trent has the shakiest draft prospects of the starters. He's kind of a tweener (SG size, SF skill set) for an NBA guy, and doesn't have the explosive athleticism scouts like to see from the wing. Doesn't mean he can't go in the first round, but it's going to be harder for him - especially without a starring role on offense, which is probably how he'd improve his stock (see Kennard 2016-17 season).

[DukieInBrasil]

Here's a list published Nov 12 by Sporting News:

NBA Mock Draft 2018: Luka Doncic rises above top college prospects in fight for No. 1 spot (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2018-picks-order-bulls-kings-suns-mavericks-michael-porter-jr-marvin-bagley-iii-luka-doncic/1ppi2awklqc7x160buc8pvp4vr)



Bagley is up to number 2 on this list ahead of Ayton (4) and Porter (3) (Mo Bamba is #5)
Gary Trent is not on the list at all
Duval is WAY higher on this list


I like what i've seen from Gary Trent Jr so far, but i am hesitant to say i've seen OAD potential from him yet. He's average height for SG in the NBA (maybe even a bit short), he's shown decent handles at Duke, but certainly not enough to wow anyone, and he rebounds pretty well. He's a good athlete, but not spectacular. All in all, he could still raise his stock quite a bit throughout the year, but as of now we just haven't seen enough and i think the draft board reflects that.
I assume that Porter will drop some due to his recent injury, although he ought to have enough time to rehab it to the point that scouts can get a decent idea of his future potential. It's possible that Harry Giles' performance later this year might have some bearing on Porter's draft stock, ie. if Giles plays reasonably well and meets or exceeds expectations for his own progress then NBA teams will probably be more willing to gamble on Porter. I know their injuries are different, but the Giles Experiment could factor into the equation.

[yancem]

Yeah, these last two are much more reasonable. I suspect that the reason Duval was so low (if #21 can be called low) is because that was right about the time of that weird "Duval is a questionable PG" tweet by Goodman, and coming off Trent having monster shooting nights in the exhibitions. But since the games started counting, it's been clear that (a) Duval is a stud and (b) Trent has the shakiest draft prospects of the starters. He's kind of a tweener (SG size, SF skill set) for an NBA guy, and doesn't have the explosive athleticism scouts like to see from the wing. Doesn't mean he can't go in the first round, but it's going to be harder for him - especially without a starring role on offense, which is probably how he'd improve his stock (see Kennard 2016-17 season).

To me, I look at Trent as being similar to Devon Booker, although he will need to be a little more consistent with his 3pt’s. Similar size and athleticism with Booker probably being a better shooter but Trent being the better defender.

[lotusland]

Yeah, these last two are much more reasonable. I suspect that the reason Duval was so low (if #21 can be called low) is because that was right about the time of that weird "Duval is a questionable PG" tweet by Goodman, and coming off Trent having monster shooting nights in the exhibitions. But since the games started counting, it's been clear that (a) Duval is a stud and (b) Trent has the shakiest draft prospects of the starters. He's kind of a tweener (SG size, SF skill set) for an NBA guy, and doesn't have the explosive athleticism scouts like to see from the wing. Doesn't mean he can't go in the first round, but it's going to be harder for him - especially without a starring role on offense, which is probably how he'd improve his stock (see Kennard 2016-17 season).

Except Trent is less likely than Kennard to have a starring role as a sophomore. Kennard was aided by GA’s move to PG and subsequent struggles and Tatum playing a lot at 4 but he projected to be a focal point of the offense coming in to the Season. Trent seems unlikely to start next year and may play significantly less unless he beats out Barrett/Reddish or Reddish plays significant minutes at 4. His situation resembles Jackson’s in that coming back might not make a lot of sense if he’s on the 1st round bubble or slightly out.

[dukelifer]

Here's a list published Nov 12 by Sporting News:

NBA Mock Draft 2018: Luka Doncic rises above top college prospects in fight for No. 1 spot (http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2018-picks-order-bulls-kings-suns-mavericks-michael-porter-jr-marvin-bagley-iii-luka-doncic/1ppi2awklqc7x160buc8pvp4vr)

They even project draft spots by team picking.

Duke Players on the list:

26. Hawks (via Timberwolves) — Grayson Allen, Duke

If Grayson Allen can somehow combine his sophomore and junior seasons, he’ll be a valuable NBA player as a scoring option off the bench. As a sophomore, Allen shot 41.7 percent from behind the arc on 6.6 attempts per 40 minutes.

Last season, that shooting percentage dipped, but Allen became an elite pick-and-roll ball-handler, averaging 0.974 points per possession (90th percentile), per Synergy. Allen probably won’t ever be much of a defender in the NBA. However, he could eventually find a role because of his efficient offense.

12. Grizzlies — Trevon Duval, Duke

Trevon Duval is an uber athletic point guard with a 6-10 wingspan to match. He’s at his best attacking defenses off the dribble, getting into the lane and throwing down vicious dunks.

His lack of a jump shot, though, is a major concern that will shape how opposing teams defend him both in one-on-one situations and in pick-and-roll. To be more than an average point guard, Duval needs to put in serious work developing a serviceable jumper.


11. Magic — Wendell Carter, Duke

He may end up playing fourth or fifth fiddle on a loaded Duke squad, but Wendell Carter is an excellent NBA prospect in his own right. Carter is a polished post scorer with decent touch on his jump shot already. He’s also excellent cleaning up the boards on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps most importantly, Carter is a good passer, which is becoming a near requirement for any big man who is going to have a substantial offensive role.

2. Mavericks — Marvin Bagley III, Duke

Duke’s Marvin Bagley has arguably the most compelling case for challenging Luka Doncic for the No. 1 spot. At 6-11, Bagley is destined to slot in at one of the frontcourt positions, although which one remains a bit unclear.

Right now, Bagley is more of a center who can provide some intriguing mismatches on the offensive end because of his ability to handle and shoot the ball. The problem? Bagley isn’t elite at either of those things yet. He’s more theoretical than actual.

Bagley is a very good athlete without great measurements, but he should be able to protect the rim defensively and switch out on the perimeter in time. Because of his size and athleticism, Bagley may have the most upside in the class. It’s just a question of if he can put it all together.

The major differences (Don't know if it's due to seeing a few weeks of play) are:


Bagley is up to number 2 on this list ahead of Ayton (4) and Porter (3) (Mo Bamba is #5)
Gary Trent is not on the list at all
Duval is WAY higher on this list


Duval will need to get better as a shooter. Maybe he can become Westbrook with full time attention to his game. Right now- Ball and Fultz are making it difficult for drafting guards who cannot shoot. Duval will be a first round pick but how high is not clear.

[niveklaen]

I know I am late with this complaint, but the first blurb on Grayson annoys me. must avoid off court trouble? Grayson has never had any off court trouble....

[BandAlum83]

I know I am late with this complaint, but the first blurb on Grayson annoys me. must avoid off court trouble? Grayson has never had any off court trouble...

As I drafted the original post, I was going to do a special call out for this, but decided to focus on the likability factor only. I do, however, totally agree with you.

[jimsumner]

Except Trent is less likely than Kennard to have a starring role as a sophomore. Kennard was aided by GA’s move to PG and subsequent struggles and Tatum playing a lot at 4 but he projected to be a focal point of the offense coming in to the Season. Trent seems unlikely to start next year and may play significantly less unless he beats out Barrett/Reddish or Reddish plays significant minutes at 4. His situation resembles Jackson’s in that coming back might not make a lot of sense if he’s on the 1st round bubble or slightly out.

Competition for PT at the 2/3 next season would be interesting. But I can't imagine Gary Trent coming back and playing "significantly less" next season.

[lotusland]

Competition for PT at the 2/3 next season would be interesting. But I can't imagine Gary Trent coming back and playing "significantly less" next season.

I guess it depends on the how we define “significant”. It’s hard to imagine that
he won’t play less though. He’s going to play as much as possible this year but if he comes back there will be 4 starter level guard/wings vs only 3 this year. He may play a second year but I doubt he decides to come back expecting a larger role.

[Troublemaker]

I guess it depends on the how we define “significant”. It’s hard to imagine that
he won’t play less though. He’s going to play as much as possible this year but if he comes back there will be 4 starter level guard/wings vs only 3 this year. He may play a second year but I doubt he decides to come back expecting a larger role.

It would depend on how big man recruiting goes for next season's team. If we get totally shut out on big men recruiting -- and I'm including all possibilities like Marques returning for a junior year, Duke taking on a grad transfer, etc -- then I would expect Gary to be the starting 2, play >30 minutes/game, and be a double-digit scorer. RJ would play the 3, Cameron the 4.

[lotusland]

It would depend on how big man recruiting goes for next season's team. If we get totally shut out on big men recruiting -- and I'm including all possibilities like Marques returning for a junior year, Duke taking on a grad transfer, etc -- then I would expect Gary to be the starting 2, play >30 minutes/game, and be a double-digit scorer. RJ would play the 3, Cameron the 4.

So an outside shot at a similar role but still not larger.

[duke4ever19]

I know I am late with this complaint, but the first blurb on Grayson annoys me. must avoid off court trouble? Grayson has never had any off court trouble...


I had a conversation with a Georgetown grad a couple months ago who leveled a similar complaint against Grayson. He said something close to this:

"Well, I think ultimately Duke will go as far as Grayson can take them. Of course, he will need to fix his on-court and off-court troubles and I don't know if he has learned his lesson. I wouldn't touch him at the pro level, though. He's like Jonny Manziel. Those guys succumb to their off-court demons."

I was puzzled when he said "Off-court troubles" and compared Grayson to Manziel, so I asked him what he meant. He sat there for a few seconds mumbling in incoherent half-sentences. He finally just said, "You know what I mean, right? His off court stuff."

This was the perfect example of just how warped the perception of a person can become due to negative media attention. Unfortunately that's the risk a player takes when they opt to go to Duke and they slip up even once.

[MChambers]

On all the talented bigs in college, including Mr. Bagley, and how the NBA looks at them: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/01/02/traditional-big-men-nearly-extinct-in-the-nba-nevertheless-pack-the-2018-draft-class/?utm_term=.5d33befe9ead

[johnb]

On all the talented bigs in college, including Mr. Bagley, and how the NBA looks at them: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/01/02/traditional-big-men-nearly-extinct-in-the-nba-nevertheless-pack-the-2018-draft-class/?utm_term=.5d33befe9ead

Sports Illustrated from 1/2/18:

3. Bagley
16. Carter
17. Duval
25. Allen

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/01/02/nba-mock-draft-2018-trae-young-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic


NBAdraft.net from 12/28/17:
2. Bagley
11. Carter
17. Trent
18. Duval
25. Allen

Bleacher Report from 12/27/17:
3. Bagley
9. Carter
23. Duval
24. Allen
28. Trent

Tankathon from 12/28/17
4. Bagley
8. Carter
16. Duval
35. Allen
41. Trent

mynbadraft.com from 12/18/17
2. Bagley
11. Carter
12. Duval
28. Allen

i.e., who knows?

[dudog84]

Yeah, I'm a homer, but anyone that passes on Bagley is going to regret it.

P.S. The Celtics have to be loving the status of the Lakers right now.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, I'm a homer, but anyone that passes on Bagley is going to regret it.

I can't imagine there are three better prospects than MB.