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Blue KevIL
11-01-2017, 01:39 PM
Duke opens the as Pre-Season #1 in the AP Poll for the 9th time tying with unCheat for the most all-time.
This is the 57th year that the AP conducted a Pre-Season poll (1962 was the first year).

It is the 130th time Duke has been ranked #1, trailing only UCLA who has 134 #1 rankings.

http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll

Truth&Justise
11-01-2017, 01:46 PM
Always neat to get recognition.

Personally I would rank Michigan St., Arizona, and Kansas ahead of Duke right now, just based on how young this team is and how many question marks remain. But we're capable of being the best by the end and I hope we are!

uh_no
11-01-2017, 01:58 PM
Always neat to get recognition.

Personally I would rank Michigan St., Arizona, and Kansas ahead of Duke right now, just based on how young this team is and how many question marks remain. But we're capable of being the best by the end and I hope we are!

AP voters are attracted to "new shiny" as much as DBR posters.

brlftz
11-01-2017, 02:02 PM
Always neat to get recognition.

Personally I would rank Michigan St., Arizona, and Kansas ahead of Duke right now, just based on how young this team is and how many question marks remain. But we're capable of being the best by the end and I hope we are!

I can definitely see MSU ahead of us, but I would love for someone to show me why Arizona gets touted by so many over us. Trier is a POY candidate, but so is Grayson. Ayton is a super freshman big, but so are both Bagley and Carter. As someone who doesn't follow them that closely, it looks to me like beyond those two Arizona has decent but not remarkable players. What gives? Why are Arizona fans and so many other folks online super hyped about them this year? Not saying they aren't going to be good, but they just look "basic Arizona good" to me, not "this year is going to be special" good. Am I underestimating the quality of their returning players outside of what I see as their big 3: Ayton, Trier, and Alkins?

Kedsy
11-01-2017, 02:31 PM
I can definitely see MSU ahead of us, but I would love for someone to show me why Arizona gets touted by so many over us. Trier is a POY candidate, but so is Grayson. Ayton is a super freshman big, but so are both Bagley and Carter. As someone who doesn't follow them that closely, it looks to me like beyond those two Arizona has decent but not remarkable players. What gives? Why are Arizona fans and so many other folks online super hyped about them this year? Not saying they aren't going to be good, but they just look "basic Arizona good" to me, not "this year is going to be special" good. Am I underestimating the quality of their returning players outside of what I see as their big 3: Ayton, Trier, and Alkins?

It's probably because they have experience as well as talent, five rotation upperclassmen (including junior Trier, their senior PG and senior 7' center), as well as Alkins and Ayton and a few other decent pieces. I agree that our top 7 should be better than their top 7, but we do lack their experience.

Wander
11-01-2017, 02:48 PM
I can definitely see MSU ahead of us, but I would love for someone to show me why Arizona gets touted by so many over us. Trier is a POY candidate, but so is Grayson. Ayton is a super freshman big, but so are both Bagley and Carter. As someone who doesn't follow them that closely, it looks to me like beyond those two Arizona has decent but not remarkable players. What gives? Why are Arizona fans and so many other folks online super hyped about them this year? Not saying they aren't going to be good, but they just look "basic Arizona good" to me, not "this year is going to be special" good. Am I underestimating the quality of their returning players outside of what I see as their big 3: Ayton, Trier, and Alkins?

In addition to Kedsy's comment above, Arizona is just undervalued on average each year because they've had less NCAA tournament success than they "deserve" based on how good their teams have been. Michigan State is overvalued on average for the opposite reason.

cato
11-01-2017, 03:09 PM
The preseason AP poll is unlike any of the others: it takes a big picture, “which team is the best team” view. Once the season starts, it becomes “which team is the hottest team right now,” which can change from week to week.

Billy Dat
11-01-2017, 03:11 PM
At Operation Basketball, K alluded to a feeling that Duke is often ranked highly because the voters like us to fall hard when we lose. Classic.

brlftz
11-01-2017, 03:13 PM
It's probably because they have experience as well as talent, five rotation upperclassmen (including junior Trier, their senior PG and senior 7' center), as well as Alkins and Ayton and a few other decent pieces. I agree that our top 7 should be better than their top 7, but we do lack their experience.

I probably should learn a lesson from last season. I would have never guessed in a million years that that UNC team would win a title. Perhaps that's how everyone felt about us in 2010, a team whose best NBA player was Lance Thomas. (Scheyer unfortunately didn't get a chance).

Bob Green
11-01-2017, 03:27 PM
...a team whose best NBA player was Lance Thomas.

Kyle Singler says hello. :cool:

BandAlum83
11-01-2017, 03:36 PM
In addition to Kedsy's comment above, Arizona is just undervalued on average each year because they've had less NCAA tournament success than they "deserve" based on how good their teams have been. Michigan State is overvalued on average for the opposite reason.

Is Carolina overvalued, or are they really a #5 team? It seems many out here think they will be lucky to crack top 3 in the ACC. What is the real (unbiased) story?

Billy Dat
11-01-2017, 03:50 PM
Kyle Singler says hello. :cool:

Unbelievably, Lance Thomas is a better NBA player than Kyle Singler. Most unbelievably is that he's made himself into a solid 3 point shooter where Kyle got the yips somewhere along the line and never recovered.

JasonEvans
11-01-2017, 04:01 PM
Unbelievably, Lance Thomas is a better NBA player than Kyle Singler. Most unbelievably is that he's made himself into a solid 3 point shooter where Kyle got the yips somewhere along the line and never recovered.

Kyle is making almost $57,000 per game... even if he gets a DNP-CD... even if he is not even on the active roster. He is scheduled to make a little bit more than that next year. It will be interesting to see if he is able to extend his career past 2019, which is when his current contract expires. If not, he will just have to figure out a way to spend his $20+ million he has earned thus far in his career ;)

-Jason "worth noting that by the time next season is done, Lance will pass Kyle in career earnings... raise your hand if you thought that was possible 2 years ago" Evans

Wander
11-01-2017, 04:06 PM
Is Carolina overvalued, or are they really a #5 team? It seems many out here think they will be lucky to crack top 3 in the ACC. What is the real (unbiased) story?

I think the previous season's national champion is almost always overvalued in the next preseason poll. UNC in 2010 is the most extreme example, but there are lots of other examples too. So yes, I think they are overrated here.

Wahoo2000
11-01-2017, 04:08 PM
In addition to Kedsy's comment above, Arizona is just undervalued on average each year because they've had less NCAA tournament success than they "deserve" based on how good their teams have been. Michigan State is overvalued on average for the opposite reason.

Arizona isn't the only team this happens to... I'm already preparing for people to be I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing and moaning if Bennett wins another CoY award because this team is nearly criminally underrated (at least when comparing to most of the less-biased statistical projection models, like BPI or KenPom). And that's about the closest I'll ever get to puffing my chest over a UVa team. If anything, I'm usually more pessimistic about our quality than the media. This team has as much or more talent (RSCI/247-Composite based) than any Bennett has coached. If he's used to making borderline top 100 guys great (Harris/Brodgon/etc), I'm excited to see what he does with a few consensus top 50 players (Guy/Diakite/Jerome). Along with the usual smattering of guys that should significantly outperform their rankings (Jay Huff/DeAndre Hunter), and experienced "super-glue" guys (Wilkins/Hall/Salt).

If we end up right in the thick of the race for the regular season ACC title again, I won't be shocked. Even if our offense is mediocre, I expect we'll field a top-3 efficiency defense. All of the guys replacing Shayok/Thompson are upgrades, and Guy/Jerome should be significantly improved with a full offseason of S&C under their belts. Those guys were ready for primetime bball in skill and mindset terms, but not in physicality terms. That should change this year. Maybe it takes one more season for it all to come together for them, but I really think we'll play top 10 caliber basketball for most of the year.

Sorry for such a long rant on a team that ISN'T Duke. FWIW, I'm super-interested to see how your team comes together and if K will move to mostly 2-big lineups this year after playing so much smallball the last few seasons. You might have a couple bigs that can shoot, but aside from Bagley (who I expect will begin the year mostly at the 3), I don't see any with the playmaking/passing/ballhandling/faceup game you've enjoyed lately with Jabari, Justice, Ingram, and Tatum. I actually think there's a possibility that Bagley ends up playing that stretch-4 role alongside Carter at center for the majority of important games, with one of Bolden/Delaurier likely getting the "fill in" minutes when Carter needs a blow, and the other getting more or less left out in the cold. Kind of similar to Winslow in '15 phasing out Jeffersons minutes at the 4.

kAzE
11-01-2017, 04:14 PM
Kyle is making almost $57,000 per game... even if he gets a DNP-CD... even if he is not even on the active roster. He is scheduled to make a little bit more than that next year. It will be interesting to see if he is able to extend his career past 2019, which is when his current contract expires. If not, he will just have to figure out a way to spend his $20+ million he has earned thus far in his career ;)

-Jason "worth noting that by the time next season is done, Lance will pass Kyle in career earnings... raise your hand if you thought that was possible 2 years ago" Evans

2 years ago? I'd have for sure said Lance Thomas is a better NBA player. The 2015-16 season was Lance's 2nd stint with the Knicks (after his lone season with the Thunder), and it was pretty obvious by that point that Kyle wasn't a rotation player in the league, while Lance had become a nice 3 and D player.

3 or 4 years ago, it would have been much harder to say.

Bob Green
11-01-2017, 04:20 PM
Unbelievably, Lance Thomas is a better NBA player than Kyle Singler.

This is shocking news. I don't follow the NBA other than glancing at box scores now and then.

kAzE
11-01-2017, 04:36 PM
I probably should learn a lesson from last season. I would have never guessed in a million years that that UNC team would win a title. Perhaps that's how everyone felt about us in 2010, a team whose best NBA player was Lance Thomas. (Scheyer unfortunately didn't get a chance).

Unless you are only referring to players who were in the main rotation that year, then I'd have to say both Mason and Miles Plumlee are currently better NBA players than Lance. Ryan Kelly also had a couple decent years in the league and is still playing professionally overseas, too.

Unfortunately, Nolan, Jon, and Zoubek's careers were derailed by injuries.

I'd still rank the NBA careers of guys on that team like so:

1. MP2
2. MP1
3. Lance
4. Kyle
5. Ryan
6. Nolan

Unfortunately, with the exception of Mason, none of those guys are currently getting meaningful minutes on their teams right now, and even Mason is playing a clear backup role in Denver behind Nikola Jokic. Mason is clearly an NBA talent, though, and probably would be putting up better numbers on a different team. He's one of the better passing big men in the league.

Bluedog
11-01-2017, 04:37 PM
The preseason AP poll is unlike any of the others: it takes a big picture, “which team is the best team” view. Once the season starts, it becomes “which team is the hottest team right now,” which can change from week to week.

Yep.
"[T]he preseason poll is essentially a prediction of how the teams are likely to perform.... Since 2003, the team ranked higher in the A.P. preseason poll (excluding cases where neither team received at least 5 votes) has won 72 percent of tournament games. That’s exactly the same number, 72 percent, as the fraction of games won by the better seed."
https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-n-c-a-a-tournament-overachievers-often-disappoint/

So, basically, after having HUNDREDS of new data points to seed the teams, the committee does no better at predicting the outcome than the AP does with ZERO datapoints at the beginning of the season! Pretty amazing....It's also why 538 puts the preseason poll in their prediction models and a team like Kentucky that was seeded 8th (and went on to the F4) was seen as formidable in those models (because the preseason poll had them really high because they had a lot of talent).

brlftz
11-01-2017, 05:45 PM
Unless you are only referring to players who were in the main rotation that year, then I'd have to say both Mason and Miles Plumlee are currently better NBA players than Lance. Ryan Kelly also had a couple decent years in the league and is still playing professionally overseas, too.

Good point, and yeah, I wasn't really considering guys that weren't significant contributors when I made that statement.

Rich
11-01-2017, 06:51 PM
Yep.
"[T]he preseason poll is essentially a prediction of how the teams are likely to perform... Since 2003, the team ranked higher in the A.P. preseason poll (excluding cases where neither team received at least 5 votes) has won 72 percent of tournament games. That’s exactly the same number, 72 percent, as the fraction of games won by the better seed."
https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-n-c-a-a-tournament-overachievers-often-disappoint/

So, basically, after having HUNDREDS of new data points to seed the teams, the committee does no better at predicting the outcome than the AP does with ZERO datapoints at the beginning of the season! Pretty amazing...It's also why 538 puts the preseason poll in their prediction models and a team like Kentucky that was seeded 8th (and went on to the F4) was seen as formidable in those models (because the preseason poll had them really high because they had a lot of talent).

It's my secret. I use preseason rankings in making many of my Bracket picks. Preseason rankings are based purely on talent. Teams go through highs and lows, injuries, etc. throughout the season, but talent *usually* prevails come tourney time. Don't get me wrong, I've had some clunker brackets, but more often than not I'm still in contention going into the Elite 8 when teams with similar talent usually play each other.

jimsumner
11-01-2017, 07:57 PM
Good point, and yeah, I wasn't really considering guys that weren't significant contributors when I made that statement.

Miles and Mason Plumlee were significant contributors in 2010. In fact, Miles actually started more games than Zoubek, although Zoubek played more minutes.

And while we're picking nits, Andre Dawkins actually had a cup of coffee in the NBA. So, seven players on that team played at least one game in the NBA, ironically none of them being the best player on that team.

Bluedog
11-01-2017, 08:09 PM
Miles and Mason Plumlee were significant contributors in 2010. In fact, Miles actually started more games than Zoubek, although Zoubek played more minutes.

And while we're picking nits, Andre Dawkins actually had a cup of coffee in the NBA. So, seven players on that team played at least one game in the NBA, ironically none of them being the best player on that team.

I'd agree the Plumlees were decent contributors throughout the season that year, but not as much in the championship run. From the Sweet Sixteen on, Mason was 2-4 from the field total and averaged about 8.5 minutes a game including 3 minutes in the championship game. Miles, admittedly, played a bit more than Mason. I guess reasonable minds can differ on how we value contributions throughout the season vs. the memorable championship run and what it truly means to be a "significant contributor." I wonder what bucket kenpom put them in...(although I realize his contribution categories are based on usage). Not questioning Jim Sumner though! But just offering a viewpoint as why many people recall it that way.

pfrduke
11-02-2017, 12:28 PM
Preseason AP Poll in map form:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4443/38062598286_3e41345115.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)Preseason (AP) (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)

JasonEvans
11-02-2017, 04:02 PM
Preseason AP Poll in map form:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4443/38062598286_3e41345115.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)Preseason (AP) (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)

I'm confused. How did you determine which teams would occupy which area (and how much area they would occupy)?

Truth&Justise
11-02-2017, 04:27 PM
I'm confused. How did you determine which teams would occupy which area (and how much area they would occupy)?

It's particularly confusing / odd for teams in the same city (UCLA/USC, Xavier/Cincinnati)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-02-2017, 04:28 PM
I'm confused. How did you determine which teams would occupy which area (and how much area they would occupy)?

I suspect things will suss out as the season progresses. Gotta start somewhere.

pfrduke
11-02-2017, 05:35 PM
I'm confused. How did you determine which teams would occupy which area (and how much area they would occupy)?


It's particularly confusing / odd for teams in the same city (UCLA/USC, Xavier/Cincinnati)


I suspect things will suss out as the season progresses. Gotta start somewhere.

Each county is assigned based on the geographic proximity (using magic circle methodology) from school arena to geographic center of county. Closest school wins.

For the specific ones flagged above, USC (which is in downtown LA) is one mile closer to the center of LA county than UCLA (in Westwood); Cincinatti is 0.2 miles closer to the center of Hamilton County than Xavier.

MarkD83
11-04-2017, 05:12 AM
Preseason AP Poll in map form:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4443/38062598286_3e41345115.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)Preseason (AP) (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)

For those who remember the Big East, this map is a bit depressing...No Gtown, St Johns, Syracuse or UConn...

DukieInBrasil
11-04-2017, 10:35 AM
Preseason AP Poll in map form:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4443/38062598286_3e41345115.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)Preseason (AP) (https://flic.kr/p/ZZsLoA)

Stupid map, Duke is ranked higher than UNC and they share the same geographic region, yet UNC's share of the map is substantially larger. Since Duke will beat UNC 3 or 4 times this year, i don't understand why UNC is on the map at all.

Rich
11-04-2017, 11:11 AM
Stupid map, Duke is ranked higher than UNC and they share the same geographic region, yet UNC's share of the map is substantially larger. Since Duke will beat UNC 3 or 4 times this year, i don't understand why UNC is on the map at all.

Why does Gonzaga get Alaska and St. Mary's get Hawaii?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-04-2017, 11:28 AM
Stupid map, Duke is ranked higher than UNC and they share the same geographic region, yet UNC's share of the map is substantially larger. Since Duke will beat UNC 3 or 4 times this year, i don't understand why UNC is on the map at all.

A little harsh there, friend. Let's not kill the poster here for trying something fun.

As I say, after a few weeks of play, everything will look substantially different. Let's be patient before we burn the original poster at the stake.

pfrduke
11-04-2017, 12:45 PM
Why does Gonzaga get Alaska and St. Mary's get Hawaii?

Every county is allocated according to the school in the top 25 that it is geographically closest to. The specific gps points used are the geographic center of the county and the arena where the team plays.

Henderson
11-05-2017, 08:45 PM
If I were Arizona, I'd make truces with Wichita State and Baylor, bolster my defenses against Gonzaga, then attack Southern Cal, UCLA, and St. Mary's with as many armies as I had available. I'd try to get their cards before anyone else gets established.

Watch out for Seton Hall. It has a great defensive position and can just build up its armies while the others beat each other up.

brlftz
11-05-2017, 10:19 PM
If I were Arizona, I'd make truces with Wichita State and Baylor, bolster my defenses against Gonzaga, then attack Southern Cal, UCLA, and St. Mary's with as many armies as I had available. I'd try to get their cards before anyone else gets established.

Watch out for Seton Hall. It has a great defensive position and can just build up its armies while the others beat each other up.

Somebody Civilizations

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2017, 02:19 AM
If I were Arizona, I'd make truces with Wichita State and Baylor, bolster my defenses against Gonzaga, then attack Southern Cal, UCLA, and St. Mary's with as many armies as I had available. I'd try to get their cards before anyone else gets established.

Watch out for Seton Hall. It has a great defensive position and can just build up its armies while the others beat each other up.

Interesting strategy, but not worth the Risk.

Troublemaker
11-06-2017, 05:23 AM
If we end up right in the thick of the race for the regular season ACC title again, I won't be shocked. Even if our offense is mediocre, I expect we'll field a top-3 efficiency defense. All of the guys replacing Shayok/Thompson are upgrades, and Guy/Jerome should be significantly improved with a full offseason of S&C under their belts. Those guys were ready for primetime bball in skill and mindset terms, but not in physicality terms. That should change this year. Maybe it takes one more season for it all to come together for them, but I really think we'll play top 10 caliber basketball for most of the year.

UVA was one of the teams I was thinking of when I made a bet with a UNC fan that the cheaters wouldn't finish top-3. I think you guys are certainly better than last season's team, and you're underrated because voters think London Perrantes is a huge loss. Perrantes was a good player but his graduation won't be nearly as damaging as the graduation of Brogdon was and will be overcome by the improvements of all the returnees.


This team has as much or more talent (RSCI/247-Composite based) than any Bennett has coached. If he's used to making borderline top 100 guys great (Harris/Brodgon/etc), I'm excited to see what he does with a few consensus top 50 players (Guy/Diakite/Jerome). Along with the usual smattering of guys that should significantly outperform their rankings (Jay Huff/DeAndre Hunter), and experienced "super-glue" guys (Wilkins/Hall/Salt).

It's not quite that simple, of course. Is there really much of a chance that Guy/Diakite/Jerome will become as good a two-way player as Brogdon (much less better than him) despite being ranked higher in RSCI? Brogdon was your best player since Ralph Sampson, no? And while I'll credit Bennett for being a great coach and quality developer of talent, somewhere in there was just him/UVA being lucky to sign an extremely underrated talent in Brogdon. No one can win NBA Rookie of the Year and be a starter on a playoff team without a lot of talent, and Brogdon quite simply was vastly underranked as merely a top-100 prospect coming out of high school.



Sorry for such a long rant on a team that ISN'T Duke. FWIW, I'm super-interested to see how your team comes together and if K will move to mostly 2-big lineups this year after playing so much smallball the last few seasons. You might have a couple bigs that can shoot, but aside from Bagley (who I expect will begin the year mostly at the 3), I don't see any with the playmaking/passing/ballhandling/faceup game you've enjoyed lately with Jabari, Justice, Ingram, and Tatum. I actually think there's a possibility that Bagley ends up playing that stretch-4 role alongside Carter at center for the majority of important games, with one of Bolden/Delaurier likely getting the "fill in" minutes when Carter needs a blow, and the other getting more or less left out in the cold. Kind of similar to Winslow in '15 phasing out Jeffersons minutes at the 4.

As you can see in our Minutes Prediction thread, it's not just a possibility but the expected outcome. Carter and Bagley will be our starting bigs, and they should be outstanding together. (I don't know how stretchy either will be, though. They'll probably each pop 1-2 threes a game, but their work will be inside).

slower
11-09-2017, 11:45 AM
I have seen Deandre Ayton and I am afraid. Very afraid.

devildeac
11-09-2017, 11:57 AM
I have seen Deandre Ayton and I am afraid. Very afraid.

Yes, but has AZ seen Bagley and Carter (and Allen and Duval and Trent)? ;)

DukieInBrasil
11-09-2017, 12:15 PM
As you can see in our Minutes Prediction thread, it's not just a possibility but the expected outcome. Carter and Bagley will be our starting bigs, and they should be outstanding together. (I don't know how stretchy either will be, though. They'll probably each pop 1-2 threes a game, but their work will be inside).

From what i've seen from them so far, i wouldn't really want each of them taking 1-2 3s a game. Maybe combining for 1-2 per game.
Offensive rebounding of missed 3s could be an important part of our offense this year, and both seem to be good rebounders, Carter particularly. Bagley does seem to be able to get to the rim from around the 3pt line, but his 3pt shot did not look good, to me. Carter's shot looks like it has better form than Bagley's.

JasonEvans
11-09-2017, 12:29 PM
I have seen Deandre Ayton and I am afraid. Very afraid.

The odds are excellent that the only time Duke would potentially face Ayton and Arizona would be in the Final Four... I just can't get too worked up about how good a potential opponent will be when we are in the final game or two for a national title.

whereinthehellami
11-09-2017, 12:41 PM
I have seen Deandre Ayton and I am afraid. Very afraid.

The guy is huge and moves so well, reminds me a little of the "Dream".

slower
11-09-2017, 03:48 PM
The guy is huge and moves so well, reminds me a little of the "Dream".

That's a good comp. Ayton has a pretty step-back/fade-away jumper - very Dream-like.

CajunDevil
11-09-2017, 03:57 PM
Ayton's vertical is rather impressive too... 43.5" for a 7'0" 260lb human. Yikes!

TexHawk
11-09-2017, 04:59 PM
KU news: Silvio De Sousa (RSCI #28 in 2018) is attempting to reclassify and join the team for the 2nd semester this year. 6'8", 240. We could definitely use him, as we only have 10 scholarship players, and the 1st big off the bench is Mitch Lightfoot.

English
11-09-2017, 05:46 PM
KU news: Silvio De Sousa (RSCI #28 in 2018) is attempting to reclassify and join the team for the 2nd semester this year. 6'8", 240. We could definitely use him, as we only have 10 scholarship players, and the 1st big off the bench is Mitch Lightfoot.

That sounds, uh, not good for KU's frontcourt.

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