2017-18 Minutes Contest - Make Your Picks Here!

[Troublemaker]

I'm re-posting the rules from last season's contest below, thanks to pfrduke:


This is a very simple contest - pick the MPG that the players on Duke's roster will have this year. Note that we will count MPG as a percentage of TOTAL team minutes, not just team minutes in the game the player plays. In other words, if Giles plays half the season and plays 20 minutes in each of those games, his MPG will be 10 minutes per game.


So we're three picks in and already have a potential issue, which is that each of the three posters picked for different sets of players. One included White and DeLaurier, one DeLaurier, and one neither (but included "Others"). So let's put some ground rules around this:



Anyone who averages at least 2 minutes per game will be graded individually. That is, if you don't make a specific guess for that player, you will be deemed to have guessed 0. That player CANNOT count as "other"
Anyone who averages fewer than 2 minutes per game can count as "other"; however, if you choose to pick individual minutes for someone who ends up under 2 mpg, you can get graded against that choice.
I note, merely for observation, the minutes played by the ninth and 10th players by minutes for each season since 2010, which suggests that people should be picking at least the top 9 by person, and probably at least 10. Last year was a huge aberration on this front, which I suspect is not likely to occur this year.

2010: 9th - 5.7 (Kelly); 10th - 1.5 (Czyz)
2011: 9th - 8.2 (Irving, sigh); 10th - 4.5 (Hairston)
2012: 9th - 7.2 (Hairston); 10th - 3.3 (Gbinije)
2013: 9th - 5.4 (Murphy); 10th - 1.4 (MP3)
2014: 9th - 7.3 (MP3); 10th - 6.7 (Jones) - note also that #11 got 2.3 (Ojeyele)
2015: 9th - 8.3 (Allen); 10th - 1.6 (Ojeyele)
2016: 9th - 0.8 (Obi); 10th - 0.4 (Vrankovic)



Two minutes per game will be the official threshold, not total minutes.

[Troublemaker]

I thought really, really hard about making the deadline for submission the tip of this Friday's exhibition game. It would be short notice, but I feel like we'd still get 80+% of the entries from last season in; don't pretend you don't reload DBR several times a day! And let's face it -- the ability to see how Coach K handles the rotation this Friday in the first exhibition game is almost like getting the answers to the exam beforehand.

However, I'll be nice. I'm going to make the deadline for submission to this contest Saturday, November 4 at 1pm ET, which is the tip of the second exhibition game against Bowie St.

So, in total, you'll have seen this team play CTC, one exhibition game against NW Mo St, and in the Instagram practice for those who watched that. You'll also have your knowledge of Coach K's tendencies from previous seasons to draw from. That's more than enough data to make your educated guesses on minutes.

So, again...

DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION is Saturday, November 4 at 1pm ET.


Mods, help a brother out, and put the deadline in the title of this thread, please. Thanks!

[kAzE]

This is by no means my official entry, but I'll take a stab at it for now, and make a final edit before the deadline.

Grayson Allen: 36
Trevon Duval: 32
Gary Trent: 32
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 28
Javin DeLaurier: 24
Marques Bolden: 12
Antonio Vrankovic: 6
Jack White: 6
Jordan Goldwire: 5
Jordan Tucker: 4

I know this adds up to more than 200 minutes, but I'm betting the last 4 guys most likely will not appear in every game, and going by the rules of the game, I'm guessing the minutes they average in the games in which they do play.

[Troublemaker]

Here's my entry. Don't let the person who posted first (edit: second thanks to Kaze) win!

As always, make sure your numbers total to 200 minutes.




Allen
35


Bagley
33


Trent
31


Carter
30


Duval
29


DeLaurier
16


Bolden
11


Goldwire
7


O'Connell
3


Tucker
2


Vrankovic
2


White
1

[kAzE]

Okay, I just re-read the rules and I did it wrong . . .

Here's the actual entry that adds up to 200:

Grayson Allen: 36
Trevon Duval: 32
Gary Trent: 32
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 28
Javin DeLaurier: 22
Marques Bolden: 12
Antonio Vrankovic: 2
Jack White: 2
Others: 2

[Troublemaker]

I know this adds up to more than 200 minutes, but I'm betting the last 4 guys most likely will not appear in every game, and going by the rules of the game, I'm guessing the minutes they average in the games in which they do play.

You have it backwards. You're supposed to guess their MPG over every game, not just the games they play. Totals should sum up to 200 minutes.

Edit: you fixed it. Thanks.

[kAzE]

You have it backwards. You're supposed to guess their MPG over every game, not just the games they play. Totals should sum up to 200 minutes.

Yep, I'm aware . . already posted again. I'm still having an issue with not being able to edit my posts (but only on my work computer for some reason), so I had to do 2 posts . . .

[richardjackson199]

Allen - 37
Duval - 36
Bagley - 33
Carter - 33
Bolden - 23
Trent - 20
O'Connell - 10
Goldwire - 4
DeLaurier - 4

[Spanarkel]

Allen 34
MBIII 31
Carter 29
Duval 28
Trent Jr. 23
DeLaurier 17
Bolden 16
Goldwire 7
White 6
Vrankovic 4
O'Connell 3
Tucker 2

[ChillinDuke]

Player
Minutes


Allen
35


Bagley
32


Duval
31


Carter
26


Trent
26


Bolden
20


DeLaurier
12


White
5


Tucker
4


Vrankovic
4


O'Connell
2


Goldwire
2


Others
1




- Chillin

[FerryFor50]

Player
Minutes


Allen
35


Bagley
33


Duval
30


Carter
25


Trent
25


Bolden
22


DeLaurier
14


Vrankovic
5


Goldwire
4


O'Connell
3


White
2


Tucker
1


Others
1

[jv001]

Allen= 37
Duval= 28
Trent= 30
Bagley= 30
Carter= 30
DeLaurier= 15
Bolden= 15
Vrankovic= 2
White= 1
Goldwire= 6
Tucker= 3
O'Connell= 3

I'm hoping Grayson doesn't get in foul trouble often. GoDuke!

[budwom]

not seeing too many Big Rotation proponents, unsurprisingly enough!

[Fish80]

Grayson Allen 32
Trevon Duval 28
Marques Bolden 25
Wendell Carter, Jr. 25
Javin DeLaurier 22
Marvin Bagley III 20
Gary Trent, Jr. 15
Jordan Tucker 10
Antonio Vrankovic 10
Jordan Goldwire 5
Jack White 4
Alex O'Connell 2
Justin Robinson 2

[Troublemaker]

pfrduke,

If you could still tabulate for this season, that'd be awesome :-) My contribution was just to start the thread since people seemed to be itching to get some minutes predictions down and also to move the deadline forward a little bit so that we could hopefully have better variability between submissions.

But if you want me to tabulate, do you mind sending me your spreadsheet? Haha.

[pfrduke]

pfrduke,

If you could still tabulate for this season, that'd be awesome :-) My contribution was just to start the thread since people seemed to be itching to get some minutes predictions down and also to move the deadline forward a little bit so that we could hopefully have better variability between submissions.

But if you want me to tabulate, do you mind sending me your spreadsheet? Haha.

Happy to tabulate again.

[sagegrouse]

not seeing too many Big Rotation proponents, unsurprisingly enough!

Still screwing up my courage, but "if there ever was a time" for a longer rotation, it would be this year. Four freshman who HAVE to play plus (in addition to Grayson) three sophs and a junior with at least a year of practice time with Duke. Then there's the freshman du jour, Alex O'Connell, and some talk of Goldwire and Tucker as well.

There are a couple of tricks to the analysis. (I never win, so I am happy to give away all my tricks.) If any starter or combination of starters misses 20 games, that basically adds one player to "key sub" minutes (10+).

Second of all, this is a minutes discussion, not a rotation discussion, but the latter will occupy a lot of discussion going forward. There are two extreme views on "in the rotation." If a player averages close to ten minutes per game, he is getting meaningful minutes and qualifies as a rotation player. This is my view. The other extreme requires an example. If at any time we play only six players [or maybe only five] in a game, such as an ACC final or a Sweet Sixteen game, that "proves" that when the going gets tough, there are only six [five] players K trusts, and those are the only ones that can be honored with the sobriquet "in the rotation." Now no one has actually espoused this position, but to some, the categorization requires a "rotation player" to be called on every single game.

[DukeBlue666s]

I usually hop on to read the board about 3,698 times a day and rarely post, but I'll give it a shot:

G Allen 33
MBIII 31
Carter 30
Duval 28 (Hoping he plays good enough for more tho)
Trent 24
Bolden 18
DeLauier 16
Goldwire 6
Vrank 6
O'Connell 6
White 2
Tucker Reshirt

I can see us going 7 deep

[mr. synellinden]

Here goes:

Allen: 36

Duval: 32

Bagley: 32

Carter: 28

Trent: 24

Bolden: 20

DeLaurier: 18

O'Connell: 6

Goldwire: 2

Others: 2

[CDu]

Still screwing up my courage, but "if there ever was a time" for a longer rotation, it would be this year. Four freshman who HAVE to play plus (in addition to Grayson) three sophs and a junior with at least a year of practice time with Duke. Then there's the freshman du jour, Alex O'Connell, and some talk of Goldwire and Tucker as well.

I tend to disagree. I think we have had plenty of teams with more on-paper depth than this one. Coach K has a long history of shortening the rotation to the point at which there is a clear separation in talent. This year, that seems like it will be after player 6 or 7. I kind of think this year’s team’s minutes breaks down more like the 2010 team.

Initial guess:
Allen (35)
Duval (33)
Bagley (31)
Trent (29)
Carter (26)
Bolden (19)
DeLaurier (14)
Tucker (5)
O’Connell (3)
White (2)
Vrankovic (2)
Others (1)

[MChambers]

I tend to disagree. I think we have had plenty of teams with more on-paper depth than this one. Coach K has a long history of shortening the rotation to the point at which there is a clear separation in talent. This year, that seems like it will be after player 6 or 7. I kind of think this year’s team’s minutes breaks down more like the 2010 team.

I agree. Ideally, we’d have at least clear perimeter backup, but none of the candidates look very strong, so I think that you’ve got 7 guys who will play, and several fighting for scraps of playing time.

[Furniture]

Here you go. From the bottom of my chair!

Grayson Allen: 35
Marvin Bagley: 33
Trevon Duval: 30
Gary Trent: 28
Wendell Carter: 28
Marques Bolden: 20
Javin DeLaurier: 16
O'Connell: 6
Jack White: 4

[curtis325]

It's just a prediction (guess), so why not be optimistic? My take is that there will be a lot of blowouts leading to many garbage minutes, also maybe some fouling problems and a few injuries (minor we all hope). Here goes:

Allen (31)
Duval (29)
Bagley (29)
Trent (27)
Carter (24)
Bolden (22)
DeLaurier (22)
Tucker (5)
O’Connell ( 4)
White (3)
Vrankovic (2)
other (2)

[proelitedota]

No one is expecting Goldwire to contribute? Based on what I saw here might be the first perimeter player off the bench.

[Furniture]

No one is expecting Goldwire to contribute? Based on what I saw here might be the first perimeter player off the bench.

From the front page. Last year......

Antonio Vrankovic got 7.8 mpg and sophomore Javin DeLaurier got 7.1. Big man Marques Bolden averaged 6.5 and Jack White 6.1.

[DukieTiger]

I’ve rewatched C2C multiple times and tempered myself by pouring over Kedsy’s lineup analysis. I’m ready.

Allen - 35
Duval - 32
Trent - 30
Bagley - 30
Carter - 26
Delaurier - 18
Bolden - 16
O’Connell - 4
Vrankovic- 3
White - 2
Tucker - 2
Goldwire - 2

[whereinthehellami]

It has been interesting to see what people have been doing with Bolden/DeLaurier. To me that is the biggest question mark. Also surprised that a lot of people have Trent lower than I would think. Coaches have said that he is coachable, a vocal/willing defender, good build, with enough offense to average around 12 ppg imho.

Allen - 36
Bagley - 33
Duval - 31
Trent - 30
Carter - 29
DeLaurier - 17
Bolden - 12
Goldwire - 4
O'Connell - 2
Tucker - 2
Vrankovic - 2
White - 2

[budwom]

From the front page. Last year...

Antonio Vrankovic got 7.8 mpg and sophomore Javin DeLaurier got 7.1. Big man Marques Bolden averaged 6.5 and Jack White 6.1.




Seems like we have this disconnect every year. I think the rules in the thread clearly show the bogus nature of Vrank's 7.8 mpg and DeLaurier's 7.1. That's dividing their minutes by the (few) games in which they played, vs the
more logical total available games.

In reality, Vrank played 2.7 minutes/game, DeLaurier 2.3.

[flyingdutchdevil]

DBR does many things well, but minute discussions are arguably what this forum does best. I look forward to these discussions every...um....other day? Anyhow, here are my rules for this season:

1) Grayson gets the most minutes by a lot. Experience + talent + Coach K's favorite player since Quinn (at least the way Coach K talks about players) = as many minutes as Grayson can handle. I didn't put the number passed 36 because our non-conference schedule is a joke and Grayson will rest if we blow out opponents.

2) Trent Jr will be #2 for minutes. Trent can play the 2-3 and really is the only player who can do so (Grayson, IMO, will be pegged to playing the 1-2 this year). Trent provides defense, opportunistic scoring, and 3pt range. He will be the unsung hero this season. Also, although our big men are highly talented, there are 4 of them and they will eat into each other's minutes (hopefully)

3) The rotation will be 6.5-7.0 tops. No exceptions. Don't care if O'Connell looked great during the scrimmage or Goldwire held his own. Coach K isn't budging on this number.

4) Duval is the toughest player to project. IMO, he'll play. A lot. But there will be growing pains that hurt his minutes in the non-conference and early portion of the ACC conference.

5) I use Kaze's minutes as a starting point. Kaze and I generally think alike with regards to player minutes (minus Jack White :D).

Grayson Allen: 36
Gary Trent: 33
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 29
Trevon Duval: 27
Javin DeLaurier: 20
Marques Bolden: 15
O'Connell: 3
Antonio Vrankovic: 2
Others: 3

[fuse]

Just for fun....

Duval 32
Trent 25
Allen 35
DeLaurier 20
Goldwire 8
O’Connell 5
Bolden 20
Vrankovic 5
Carter 20
Bagley 30

[kAzE]

No one is expecting Goldwire to contribute? Based on what I saw here might be the first perimeter player off the bench.

You could be right, and at the same time, he might not even be in the rotation. I think all of the players likely to spend time playing on the perimeter in the 7 man rotation are in the starting lineup: Grayson, Trevon, Gary, and Marvin. Although I liked what I saw from Goldwire in the scrimmage (and I'm with you in believing he's ahead of Alex), it's only a scrimmage.

However, I think he's likely to play spot minutes with some frequency, because there will be foul trouble at times with our 3 rotation guards. I probably will be bumping Goldwire up to 3 or 4 minutes per game in my official entry, depending on how the exhibition games go.

[COYS]

Allen
35


Duval
32


Bagley
32


Trent
29


Carter
28


DeLaurier
16


Bolden
13


Goldwire
8


O'Connell
2


Tucker
2


Vrankovic
2


White
1

[kAzE]

Trent Jr will be #2 for minutes. Trent can play the 2-3 and really is the only player who can do so (Grayson, IMO, will be pegged to playing the 1-2 this year). Trent provides defense, opportunistic scoring, and 3pt range. He will be the unsung hero this season. Also, although our big men are highly talented, there are 4 of them and they will eat into each other's minutes (hopefully)

I agree with this. I put him down for 32 minutes along with Marvin and Trevon, but I think he will be #2 in minutes. And I don't think he will be unsung. He might quickly become a crowd favorite. Not sure why people here didn't talk more about Gary after the scrimmage (he looked better than Alex to me). He was maybe best player in the game. He's got a little bit of an attitude, which was on display when he was matching 3 for 3 with Grayson in the CTC game.

I was pleasantly surprised by how confident he was in taking shots and being the go-to guy on the blue team. Alex got all the accolades (and he deserves credit for helping the blue team pull away at the end), but Gary efficiently lead the team in scoring. I really hope he can become a defensive stopper on the wing. Gary's not the quickest guy out there, but he's tough and isn't afraid to mix it up in the paint. We really need someone to step into Uncle Matty's shoes.


4) Duval is the toughest player to project. IMO, he'll play. A lot. But there will be growing pains that hurt his minutes in the non-conference and early portion of the ACC conference.

I think he will play a lot, but mostly out of sheer necessity. There's just no guard depth on this team. The drop off after the 3rd guard is huge. If he plays anything less than 28-30 minutes, then Goldwire or O'Connell will need to be in this discussion as the 7.5th guy. I don't think that will happen without injury (knock on wood) or foul trouble, so we are probably going to play Duval tons of minutes and live with the good and the bad.


Kaze and I generally think alike with regards to player minutes (minus Jack White :D).

Man, you will never let that go :p

Did we ever get a bet going on this? If he's in the rotation next year (2018-19), I'm definitely going to make sure you eat some crow.

[MChambers]

DBR does many things well, but minute discussions are arguably what this forum does best. I look forward to these discussions every...um...other day?
This seems a bit tautological to me, since all threads eventually devolve into minutes discussions.

[Ultrarunner]

My annual effort at futility . . . I have Trent higher on the list than some due to shooting and defense. I'm also hoping for a tenacious defense that requires resting people, especially our bigs, on a regular basis.

Allen 36
Trent 30
Duval 30
Bagley 28
Carter 25
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 16
Goldwire 5
O'Connell 3
Vrankovic 3
Tucker 2
White 2
Others 2

[Ultrarunner]

This seems a bit tautological to me, since all threads eventually devolve into minutes discussions.

After which, we string the threads along until we're in a pun-fest.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Man, you will never let that go :p

Did we ever get a bet going on this? If he's in the rotation next year (2018-19), I'm definitely going to make sure you eat some crow.

We must have. I was so anti-White (probably irrationally), you were so pro-White (definitely irrationally. See what I did there :D). That was the most heated I've ever gotten with a fellow DBRer.

[devildeac]

We must have. I was so anti-White (probably irrationally), you were so pro-White (definitely irrationally. See what I did there :D). That was the most heated I've ever gotten with a fellow DBRer.

I seem to recall a bet about some such nonsense and don't recollect the winner. I definitely remember I've yet to receive my consultant's fee from you two ne'er-do-wells. :rolleyes::p;)

[Matches]

Allen - 37
Duval - 36
Bagley - 33
Trent - 33
Carter - 31
Bolden - 15
Delaurier - 9
O'Connell - 2
Goldwire - 2
Others - 2

[David Bunkley]

Grayson Allen 34
Gary Trent, Jr. 29
Trevon Duval 27
Marvin Bagley III 22
Wendell Carter,Jr. 20
Javin DeLaurier 17
Marques Bolden 15
Jordan Tucker 12
Antonio Vrankovic 10
Jordan Goldwire 4
Alex O'Connell 4
Jack White 4
Others 2

[devilsince1977]

I think we have at least 8 and as many as 12 blowouts on the schedule this year. I am using that estimate to reduce the top 7 players minutes by 3 or 4 per game. I also think that fouls are going to come into play in a few competitive game. Goldwire is our only real 2nd option for PG. He will get a few PG minutes in some competitive games. Here goes nothing.

Allen 33
Bagley 31
Trent 29
Duval 28
Carter 26
Delaurie 17
Bolden 15
Goldwire 7
White 4
O'Connell 3
Tucker 3
Vrankovic 3
other 1

[drummerdevil]

I’m gonna go the high risk, high reward route
Allen 38
Bagley 31
Duval 30
Carter 28
Trent 26
Bolden 22
DeLaurier 9
Vrankovic 6
O’Connell 4
Tucker 2
Goldwire 4

[CDu]

I think we have at least 8 and as many as 12 blowouts on the schedule this year. I am using that estimate to reduce the top 7 players minutes by 3 or 4 per game. I also think that fouls are going to come into play in a few competitive game. Goldwire is our only real 2nd option for PG. He will get a few PG minutes in some competitive games. Here goes nothing.

Minor math note to keep in mind: shaving 3-4 minutes per game off of the top 7 players' average mpg amounts to about 850 total minutes over a 35-game season. So if you are only expecting 8-12 blowouts, that means about 85 minutes per blowout will go to the end-of-bench guys. Which would mean about 17 minutes of each blowout (5 positions on the court) would be played by end-of-bench guys. That seems pretty unlikely. Even in blowouts, Coach K hasn't typically called off the dogs until the under 4-minute timeout (at the earliest).

Factoring in time for blowouts probably shouldn't affect the overall minutes predictions too much. Like, anything more than a minute per game is probably too much. Assuming a 1 mpg cut and assuming 1/3 of games are blowouts, that would mean about 4 minutes per game of each blowout played entirely by the end of bench guys.

Now, injury risk can/should certainly be baked in, as missing a game would shave around 1 mpg off a player's average. And of course foul trouble (especially for the bigs) can cut into minutes too.

[budwom]

I find that in many years, even when Duke has a huge lead in the final minutes, the subs (guys not in the rotation) don't come in until a minute or so left, if at all. As such I'd assert that
there just aren't that many minutes doled out during blowouts. I always hope for more, generally don't see it happening.

[budwom]

Grayson Allen 34
Gary Trent, Jr. 29
Trevon Duval 27
Marvin Bagley III 22
Wendell Carter,Jr. 20
Javin DeLaurier 17
Marques Bolden 15
Jordan Tucker 12
Antonio Vrankovic 10
Jordan Goldwire 4
Alex O'Connell 4
Jack White 4
Others 2


not to quibble too much with anyone's guess, but Marvin Bagley if healthy HAS to play way more than 22 minutes/game....and I just don't see (again, barring injury) how Vrank gets close to 10 minutes since he's almost certainly the number five big man, right?

[CDu]

I find that in many years, even when Duke has a huge lead in the final minutes, the subs (guys not in the rotation) don't come in until a minute or so left, if at all. As such I'd assert that
there just aren't that many minutes doled out during blowouts. I always hope for more, generally don't see it happening.

Yep! We have unfortunately lost enough (and really, any is enough) double-digit leads over the years that Coach K doesn’t let his guard down until VERY late in the game. Unless it is a complete laugher, like 30+. Then, he will su out with 2-3 minutes left, and may work some guys in for spot minutes earlier throughout.

Heck, even in our most dominant team ever (1999), the end of bench guys got just 478 minutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yep! We have unfortunately lost enough (and really, any is enough) double-digit leads over the years that Coach K doesn’t let his guard down until VERY late in the game. Unless it is a complete laugher, like 30+. Then, he will su out with 2-3 minutes left, and may work some guys in for spot minutes earlier throughout.

Heck, even in our most dominant team ever (1999), the end of bench guys got just 478 minutes.

Have you seen our non-conference schedule? There will be a few 30+ game.

[kAzE]

Have you seen our non-conference schedule? There will be a few 30+ game.

There won't be if you keep jinxing us :(

After last year, I'm not taking anything for granted.

[Troublemaker]

Have you seen our non-conference schedule? There will be a few 30+ game.

For what's is worth, kenpom only projects one 30+ victory for us this season, in the Nov 17 home game against Southern (ranked #330 by kenpom).

[Troublemaker]

not to quibble too much with anyone's guess, but Marvin Bagley if healthy HAS to play way more than 22 minutes/game...and I just don't see (again, barring injury) how Vrank gets close to 10 minutes since he's almost certainly the number five big man, right?

Some folks are definitely projecting what they hope to see, imo, instead of just trying to win the contest.

[devilsince1977]

Minor math note to keep in mind: shaving 3-4 minutes per game off of the top 7 players' average mpg amounts to about 850 total minutes over a 35-game season. So if you are only expecting 8-12 blowouts, that means about 85 minutes per blowout will go to the end-of-bench guys. Which would mean about 17 minutes of each blowout (5 positions on the court) would be played by end-of-bench guys. That seems pretty unlikely. Even in blowouts, Coach K hasn't typically called off the dogs until the under 4-minute timeout (at the earliest).

Factoring in time for blowouts probably shouldn't affect the overall minutes predictions too much. Like, anything more than a minute per game is probably too much. Assuming a 1 mpg cut and assuming 1/3 of games are blowouts, that would mean about 4 minutes per game of each blowout played entirely by the end of bench guys.

Now, injury risk can/should certainly be baked in, as missing a game would shave around 1 mpg off a player's average. And of course foul trouble (especially for the bigs) can cut into minutes too.

Thanks CDu. I started thinking blowouts would effect the top 7. I changed it to the top 5 and forgot to change it in the text. I did calculate that it would only change the average a minute or 2. Then I considered the freshmen fouling factor; deducting another minute per game. Then I thought about the injury factor, but didn't want to put it in writing (jinx factor) so I didn't adjust my predictions. Last, I went with the non-scientific method; "gut feeling", and tried to use my predictions to influence K into using his bench a little more this year. Doom on me.

[CDu]

Have you seen our non-conference schedule? There will be a few 30+ game.

I don’t think there are 8-12 30+ pt margins on our schedule. Further, those 30+ pt games are the only games in which we empty the bench before the final minute. So it will be hard for the end-of-bench guys to get anywhere near 600 minutes.

[Furniture]

Só...The elephant in the room is can I change my picks after tonight?

[kAzE]

Só...The elephant in the room is can I change my picks after tonight?

I'd assume you can make changes and updates as needed until the deadline. It wouldn't be fair if we were all held to our picks prior to seeing the exhibition games.

[NSDukeFan]

Só...The elephant in the room is can I change my picks after tonight?

Of course, you have until next Saturday. My initial picks (dreaming of a 13 player rotation this year)

Grayson 31
Bagley 29
Duval 29
Trent 29
Carter 28
Bolden 23
Javin 14
Tucker 6
O'Connell 5
White 3
Goldwire 2
Other 1

[David Bunkley]

not to quibble too much with anyone's guess, but Marvin Bagley if healthy HAS to play way more than 22 minutes/game...and I just don't see (again, barring injury) how Vrank gets close to 10 minutes since he's almost certainly the number five big man, right?

That is a totally fair question, though I believe I answered it in the title of my post - I hope Coach K rolls those big men out in waves, keeps them fresh, and they play at as close to full intensity for the entirety of every game as possible.

Though admittedly, you are probably closer to being right than I am.

[Troublemaker]

Só...The elephant in the room is can I change my picks after tonight?

Yes.



DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION is Saturday, November 4 at 1pm ET.

[Furniture]

Yes.

Thanks!

One interesting observation I have had from peoples picks is who gets more minutes Javin or Bolden? It could go either way judging by the picks so far.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks!

One interesting observation I have had from peoples picks is who gets more minutes Javin or Bolden? It could go either way judging by the picks so far.

Yup. And it's a really interesting discussion. Marques was higher rated and is crazy, crazy long. I mean really long. He's the longest player in Duke history (he's roughly the same length as Elton but was ~3-4 inches in height on Elton). Think about that. Javin is high energy & high motor and will likely be a menace on defense.

If I was a betting man (and I am!), I would bet on Javin getting more minutes.

[kAzE]

Thanks!

One interesting observation I have had from peoples picks is who gets more minutes Javin or Bolden? It could go either way judging by the picks so far.

I think it's less about who is a better player in a vacuum and more about who is a better fit with the rest of the team and with what I believe our best game plan will be.

Marques is an excellent NBA prospect, and one of the longest (possibly THE longest) and tallest guys we've ever had at Duke. Both he and Javin have potential as future players in the NBA.

However, they are very different players with very different strengths and weaknesses. Neither of these guys are going to be stars on this team. They are both going to play a role. You build a basketball team by first establishing your star players (Grayson, Marvin, and Wendell), and then figuring out which role players compliment those guys the best.

Personally, I'm projecting Javin to play more than Marques because I think Marques does a lot of the same things that Wendell Carter does, and I just think Carter does them at a higher level right now. That doesn't mean Marques can't improve and possibly even replace Wendell in the starting lineup. I just don't think either of them would be extremely effective (or at least MORE effective than other options on the roster) at power forward. I don't see them being able to play together very effectively. It seems like they would clog up the paint and limit each other's ability to be effective. Now, I could be wrong, and Wendell could be an excellent 4, which would change things. But right now, I'd bet Wendell gets most of his minutes at the 5.

However, I DO think Javin can be an excellent 4 man. He's extremely mobile and runs the floor in transition well, which opens up lanes for other players looking to get to the rim or spot up outside on the fast break. I believe we're going to really try to push the ball up the court to score this year because of our athleticism and speed. Javin is just going to be more effective at running from end to end than Marques. His mobility is also going to help him as a P&R defender and as a help defender.

Does it mean I think Javin is better than Marques? No. I think they both really talented, neither one stands out above the other as a pure talent. I could be way off base, and the folks projecting Marques to play more could totally be right. And there's no denying that Marques could ultimately become a much better NBA player. I just think Javin is a better fit for what I believe we are trying to do with this team this season.

Regardless, these 2 guys are probably going to be the biggest point of disagreement in these minutes predictions, so it will be fascinating to see how it plays out tonight. I'll be watching closely.

[BandAlum83]

I seem to recall a bet about some such nonsense and don't recollect the winner. I definitely remember I've yet to receive my consultant's fee from you two ne'er-do-wells. :rolleyes::p;)

Thank you for this.

I was going to use the phrase in an earlier post, but couldn't for the life of me figure out how to spell it. The last thing I want to do is look obviously ignorant on these boards. (A hint of ignorance I can live with)

[budwom]

That is a totally fair question, though I believe I answered it in the title of my post - I hope Coach K rolls those big men out in waves, keeps them fresh, and they play at as close to full intensity for the entirety of every game as possible.

Though admittedly, you are probably closer to being right than I am.

I, too, would love to see a much more liberal rotation, but I've pretty much given up expecting it to happen.

[CDu]

I think it's less about who is a better player in a vacuum and more about who is a better fit with the rest of the team and with what I believe our best game plan will be.

Marques is an excellent NBA prospect, and one of the longest (possibly THE longest) and tallest guys we've ever had at Duke. Both he and Javin have potential as future players in the NBA.

However, they are very different players with very different strengths and weaknesses. Neither of these guys are going to be stars on this team. They are both going to play a role. You build a basketball team by first establishing your star players (Grayson, Marvin, and Wendell), and then figuring out which role players compliment those guys the best.

Personally, I'm projecting Javin to play more than Marques because I think Marques does a lot of the same things that Wendell Carter does, and I just think Carter does them at a higher level right now. That doesn't mean Marques can't improve and possibly even replace Wendell in the starting lineup. I just don't think either of them would be extremely effective (or at least MORE effective than other options on the roster) at power forward. I don't see them being able to play together very effectively. It seems like they would clog up the paint and limit each other's ability to be effective. Now, I could be wrong, and Wendell could be an excellent 4, which would change things. But right now, I'd bet Wendell gets most of his minutes at the 5.

However, I DO think Javin can be an excellent 4 man. He's extremely mobile and runs the floor in transition well, which opens up lanes for other players looking to get to the rim or spot up outside on the fast break. I believe we're going to really try to push the ball up the court to score this year because of our athleticism and speed. Javin is just going to be more effective at running from end to end than Marques. His mobility is also going to help him as a P&R defender and as a help defender.

Does it mean I think Javin is better than Marques? No. I think they both really talented, neither one stands out above the other as a pure talent. I could be way off base, and the folks projecting Marques to play more could totally be right. And there's no denying that Marques could ultimately become a much better NBA player. I just think Javin is a better fit for what I believe we are trying to do with this team this season.

Regardless, these 2 guys are probably going to be the biggest point of disagreement in these minutes predictions, so it will be fascinating to see how it plays out tonight. I'll be watching closely.

I see it as opposite. We have Bagley and Carter ahead of Bolden and DeLaurier. Bagley is a 4, and should play there a ton. Carter will play mostly at the 5, but some at the 4. Between those two, I think there are more minutes to be had at C than at PF. So I think Bolden will play more.

That said, it should be reasonably close.

[COYS]

I see it as opposite. We have Bagley and Carter ahead of Bolden and DeLaurier. Bagley is a 4, and should play there a ton. Carter will play mostly at the 5, but some at the 4. Between those two, I think there are more minutes to be had at C than at PF. So I think Bolden will play more.

That said, it should be reasonably close.

Obviously it was just an exhibition game, but Javin's rebounding in the B/W scrimmage was impressive. Marques had very pedestrian defensive rebound percentages last year (with all the obvious caveats that he was injured early and had limited and inconsistent minutes for the entire season). In even more limited minutes (so few, in fact, it is hard to draw any real conclusions), Javin actually had better rebounding rates on both sides of the ball. Again, it's impossible to draw any conclusions from such small sample sizes, but the early indications are that Javin might actually be a better rebounder than Marques. If that proves to be the case in expanded minutes, it might mean that Javin is better at doing power forward/center things on the court than Marques, which might mean that even if minutes are available at the PF/C positions, they could still go to Javin . . . especially if he can hit the occasional kick out three.

That being said, I still picked Marques to beat Javin in my predictions.

[kAzE]

I see it as opposite. We have Bagley and Carter ahead of Bolden and DeLaurier. Bagley is a 4, and should play there a ton. Carter will play mostly at the 5, but some at the 4. Between those two, I think there are more minutes to be had at C than at PF. So I think Bolden will play more.

That said, it should be reasonably close.

It sounds like our disagreement is more about whether or not Wendell Carter plays minutes at the 4. I'm not seeing it, but I admit it's very possible I could be wrong. In that case, Bolden would definitely have an opportunity to play more minutes. At the least, I think most of us agree Bolden is exclusively a 5.

[CDu]

It sounds like our disagreement is more about whether or not Wendell Carter plays minutes at the 4. I'm not seeing it, but I admit it's very possible I could be wrong. In that case, Bolden would definitely have an opportunity to play more minutes. At the least, I think most of us agree Bolden is exclusively a 5.

I don’t think Carter will play muvh at PF. But if he plays at all at PF, that is doubly in Bolden’s favor. Every minute Carter plays at PF instead of C would mean fewer minutes at PF (where DeLaurier plays) and more minutes at C (where Bolden plays).

I also think that - due to foul trouble and a more demanding position, Carter will play fewer minutes than Bagley. So that also plays into Bolden’s favor.

On the other side is the (in my opinion) small likelihood that we see either Bagley or DeLaurier at SF. I don’t expect that to happen much, but barring injury that seems like the only clear path to DeLaurier getting more minutes than Bolden.

[Troublemaker]

On the other side is the (in my opinion) small likelihood that we see either Bagley or DeLaurier at SF. I don’t expect that to happen much, but barring injury that seems like the only clear path to DeLaurier getting more minutes than Bolden.

Yeah, that seems to be the crux of the disagreement. I think DeLaurier will play a lot of minutes at SF (even though, like you, I was skeptical of it at first). Reading between the lines, that seems to be the way the coaches are thinking, and that means none of Tucker, O'Connell, or White will play much. I have Javin as the primary perimeter sub who will also get some minutes at PF and overall will receive more minutes than Marques.

[sagegrouse]

Thank you for this.

I was going to use the phrase in an earlier post, but couldn't for the life of me figure out how to spell it. The last thing I want to do is look obviously ignorant on these boards. (A hint of ignorance I can live with)

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

Or, Proverbs 17:28 -- "Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding."

[kAzE]

Yeah, that seems to be the crux of the disagreement. I think DeLaurier will play a lot of minutes at SF (even though, like you, I was skeptical of it at first). Reading between the lines, that seems to be the way the coaches are thinking, and that means none of Tucker, O'Connell, or White will play much. I have Javin as the primary perimeter sub who will also get some minutes at PF and overall will receive more minutes than Marques.

Actually, I think Javin plays mostly at power forward, and possibly center in small lineups (and there are going to be situations where we need to be able to play smaller at times) featuring him and Marvin Bagley as the 2 bigs. Bagley is the only big man I can envision getting minutes at the 3. Ball handling isn't absolutely critical for playing small forward at Duke, but it certainly helps, and Bagley is clearly the smoothest ball handler of our 5 big men.

[devildeac]

Thank you for this.

I was going to use the phrase in an earlier post, but couldn't for the life of me figure out how to spell it. The last thing I want to do is look obviously ignorant on these boards. (A hint of ignorance I can live with)

You're welcome. I'm here to serve.

As for the bolded, I've learned to live with it. :o;)

[Fish80]

The wisdom of the crowd? The average guess, so far:



Allen
35


Bagley
30


Duval
30


Trent
27


Carter
27


Bolden
18


DeLaurier
16


O'Connell
4


Goldwire
4


Vrankovich
3


Tucker
3


White
2


Other
1

[Hauerwas]

Allen 36
Duval 33
Bagley 33
Carter 27
Trent 23
Bolden 15
DeLaurier 15
Tucker 8
Vrank 5
White 3
O'Connell 2

[sagegrouse]

I am going to stick my neck out on this contest, but I will first collect some more data. I am willing to predict that Duke will play ten players this year, and of course, I am willing to come in last.

What's impressive to me is that there are twelve players (12!) for which one can make a case for playing this season. In addition to the starters and the obvious subs, Javin and Marques, here are the cases:


Vrank: (a) junior; (b) strong; (c) good hands and can make good plays. Main question: very crowded front court.
Jack White: (a) a sophomore; (b) strong player and good shooter; (c) led B-W scrimmage in rebounds. Main question: is this guy any good? I think he is, but I could be wrong.
Alex O'Connell: (a) good shooter -- winning shot in B-W scrimmage; (b) moves well and seems to have a feel for the game. Main question: he is very, very thin at 6-6, 171 (which in coach speak may be 6-5, 160).
Jordan Goldwire: (a) has PG skills and may be effective backup; (b) played all 20 minutes at the B-W scrimmage. Main question: unheralded recruit and may be designated to sit for a year and develop over 3-4 years.
Jordan Tucker: (a) highly recruited player with a reasonable RSCI (#61); (b) looks to be a lengthy and mobile swing player where Duke has a need. Main question: Was #12 in minutes player at B-W scrimmage. Not gonna be a factor?

I'll think about this for a couple of days before voting.

[luvdahops]

Allen 34
Duval 32
Bagley 30
Trent 28
Carter 27
DeLaurier 20
Bolden 15
Goldwire 4
O’Connell 4
Tucker 3
Others 3 combined

I agree with Jim Sumner that Goldwire, O’Connell and Tucker May all see time as the 0.5 in a 7.5 man rotation, but most likely on a situational basis. Tucker seems clearly behind the other 2 right now, but if his shooting is as good as advertised, I would expect him to see some situational floor time in real games.

[jimsumner]

Allen 34
Duval 32
Bagley 30
Trent 28
Carter 27
DeLaurier 20
Bolden 15
Goldwire 4
O’Connell 4
Tucker 3
Others 3 combined

I agree with Jim Sumner that Goldwire, O’Connell and Tucker May all see time as the 0.5 in a 7.5 man rotation, but most likely on a situational basis. Tucker seems clearly behind the other 2 right now, but if his shooting is as good as advertised, I would expect him to see some situational floor time in real games.

I'm beginning to change my mind about Goldwire. I've said earlier that my assumption was that he was an Andre Buckner analog until and unless proven otherwise.

Well, it's a small sample size but he looks more like a Tyler Thornton analog. He's a real bulldog on defense and has a playmaker's skill set. I'm not sure he'll ever be a scorer at this level.

Now, will K go to Goldwire when Duval sits against someone like Michigan State or Indiana, or top-tier ACC schools? Remains to be seen. But I wouldn't have even considered the possibility a month ago.

K mentioned Goldwire getting careless with the ball late in the game in the presser. Which, I take as a positive. Lots of end-of-the-bench players get sloppy late in a blow-out win and don't get called out by name because they don't figure to get much burn in the near future. But I think K plans to give him a legit chance at being a 6-8 mpg rotation player this season and wants to make sure he's stay sufficiently focused to take advantage of that opportunity.

[Troublemaker]

The rotation will be exactly what I predicted on the first page of this thread. No changes needed after seeing this exhibition.



Here's my entry. Don't let the person who posted first (edit: second thanks to Kaze) win!

As always, make sure your numbers total to 200 minutes.




Allen
35


Bagley
33


Trent
31


Carter
30


Duval
29


DeLaurier
16


Bolden
11


Goldwire
7


O'Connell
3


Tucker
2


Vrankovic
2


White
1

[kAzE]

I'm beginning to change my mind about Goldwire. I've said earlier that my assumption was that he was an Andre Buckner analog until and unless proven otherwise.

Well, it's a small sample size but he looks more like a Tyler Thornton analog. He's a real bulldog on defense and has a playmaker's skill set. I'm not sure he'll ever be a scorer at this level.

Now, will K go to Goldwire when Duval sits against someone like Michigan State or Indiana, or top-tier ACC schools? Remains to be seen. But I wouldn't have even considered the possibility a month ago.

K mentioned Goldwire getting careless with the ball late in the game in the presser. Which, I take as a positive. Lots of end-of-the-bench players get sloppy late in a blow-out win and don't get called out by name because they don't figure to get much burn in the near future. But I think K plans to give him a legit chance at being a 6-8 mpg rotation player this season and wants to make sure he's stay sufficiently focused to take advantage of that opportunity.

I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of those 2 guys. Thornton was really underappreciated most of his career. The guy was a vocal leader almost from day 1 and really brought
toughness to the team the way a guy like Draymond Green does for the Warriors. He was an A+ role player. I would be ecstatic if Goldwire becomes as good as TT.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Only swapped out Vrank/O'Connell for Goldwire.

Grayson Allen: 36
Gary Trent: 33
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 29
Trevon Duval: 27
Javin DeLaurier: 20
Marques Bolden: 15
Goldwire: 4
Others: 4

[Bluealum]

Allen 35
Bagley 30
Duval 30
Carter 29
Trent 29
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 14
Goldwire 6
Tucker 4
O'Connell 2
Vrankovic 2
White 1

[dragoneye776]

Allen 34
Bagley 34
Duval 30
Trent 30
Carter 29
DeLaurier 16
Bolden 10
Goldwire 8
Tucker 4
O'Connell 2
Vrankovic 2
White 1

[mattman91]

Only swapped out Vrank/O'Connell for Goldwire.

Grayson Allen: 36
Gary Trent: 33
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 29
Trevon Duval: 27
Javin DeLaurier: 20
Marques Bolden: 15
Goldwire: 4
Others: 4

Looks about right to me. I'd probably give Duval a few more minutes.

[MChambers]

Before I get any more confused and befuddled about this team's likely substitution patterns:

Allen 35
Duval 32
Trent 30
Bagley 29
Carter 25
Delaurier 20
Bolden 17
Goldwire 4
Vrank 3
O’Connell 3
White 2

[jv001]

Allen= 37
Duval= 28
Trent= 30
Bagley= 30
Carter= 30
DeLaurier= 15
Bolden= 15
Vrankovic= 2
White= 1
Goldwire= 6
Tucker= 3
O'Connell= 3

I'm hoping Grayson doesn't get in foul trouble often. GoDuke!


New projections

Allen 37
Duval 28
Trent 32
Bagley 30
Carter 30
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 13
Vrank 1
White 1
Goldwire 7
Tucker 1
O'Connell 1
Other 1

I have 8 player with 7 or more minutes. I don't know if all 8 get meaningful minutes when ACC season comes around but it's just a "wag" anyway.
FWIW Grayson averaged 29.6 minutes in a season that saw injuries and other happenings last year. Given he's healthy, I hope he's ready for lot's of minutes this season. We'll need him when we play tough opponents. I wouldn't be surprised to see a redshirt year for any one of the guys that I have down for 1 mpg. GoDuke

[Gooch]

Not sure if it was better or worse for me to guess after the NWMOST game, but here goes...

Allen 35
Bagley 33
Trent 32
Duval 30
Carter 25
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 12
Goldwire 7
Tucker 3
O'Connell 2
Others 3

[Ultrarunner]

My annual effort at futility . . . I have Trent higher on the list than some due to shooting and defense. I'm also hoping for a tenacious defense that requires resting people, especially our bigs, on a regular basis.

Allen 36
Trent 30
Duval 30
Bagley 28
Carter 25
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 16
Goldwire 5
O'Connell 3
Vrankovic 3
Tucker 2
White 2
Others 2

Revised and updated:

Allen 36
Trent 31
Duval 31
Bagley 28
Carter 26
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 15
Goldwire 5
O'Connell 2
Vrankovic 2
Tucker 2
White 2
Others 2

[slower]

Looks about right to me. I'd probably give Duval a few more minutes.

Have to think Duval will get more than 27 per game.

[El_Diablo]

7 mpg for Goldwire seems very optimistic.

[drummerdevil]

I’m gonna go the high risk, high reward route
Allen 38
Bagley 31
Duval 30
Carter 28
Trent 26
Bolden 22
DeLaurier 9
Vrankovic 6
O’Connell 4
Tucker 2
Goldwire 4

Let me go ahead and change these since I still have time
Allen 35
Duval 30
Trent 30
Bagley 31
Carter 26
DeLaurier 22
Bolden 15
Goldwire 8
Others 3

[DCDevil9194]

Allen - 35
Duval - 32
Trent - 29
Bagley - 29
Carter - 26
DeLaurier - 19
Bolden - 18
Goldwire - 6
O'Connell - 4
Other - 2

[Duke79UNLV77]

Allen 35
Bagley 32
Trent 30
Duval 30
Carter 25
Delaurier 16
Bolden 16
O'Connell 4
Goldwire 4
Tucker 3
White 3
Other 2

[arnie]

Before I get any more confused and befuddled about this team's likely substitution patterns:

Allen 35
Duval 32
Trent 30
Bagley 29
Carter 25
Delaurier 20
Bolden 17
Goldwire 4
Vrank 3
O’Connell 3
White 2
Below:

Allen - 38
Duval - 34
Trent - 32
Bagley - 32
Carter - 30
Delaurier- 16
Goldwire - 8
Bolden - 8
Others - 2

[cbarry]

Player
Minutes


Allen
35


Bagley
34


Duval
34


Carter
33


Trent
33


Bolden
10


DeLaurier
8


Goldwire
5


O'Connell
5


Vrankovic
1


Tucker
1


White
1


Others
0



I think I won the 2016-7 minutes contest (I don't think the winner/rankings were ever officially announced, ... maybe I missed it).

My picks are based strongly on Coach K's history of not going more than 6-7 deep. I gave a little leeway for early season games, but down the stretch, the bench will shorten.

Go Duke!!

[Furniture]

Player
Minutes


Allen
35


Bagley
34


Duval
34


Carter
33


Trent
33


Bolden
10


DeLaurier
8


Goldwire
5


O'Connell
5


Vrankovic
1


Tucker
1


White
1


Others
0



I think I won the 2016-7 minutes contest (I don't think the winner/rankings were ever officially announced, ... maybe I missed it).

My picks are based strongly on Coach K's history of not going more than 6-7 deep. I gave a little leeway for early season games, but down the stretch, the bench will shorten.

Go Duke!!

Self declared winner? That's outrageous! I demand a recount sir!

[cbarry]

Self declared winner? That's outrageous! I demand a recount sir!

Check for hanging Chads!

[BullBlue]

Without the benefit of seeing this Saturday's game, which will no doubt bring crystal clear clarity to this minutes debate, I submit:

Allen 35
Bagley 32
Duval 30
Trent 30
Carter 27
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 18
Goldwire 4
Vrankovich 2
White 2
O'Connell 2

[NSDukeFan]

Of course, you have until next Saturday. My initial picks (dreaming of a 13 player rotation this year)

Grayson 31
Bagley 29
Duval 29
Trent 29
Carter 28
Bolden 23
Javin 14
Tucker 6
O'Connell 5
White 3
Goldwire 2
Other 1

A few minor changes:

Grayson 32
Bagley 30
Trent 30
Duval 29
Carter 28
Bolden 18
Javin 16
O'Connell 5
Tucker 5
Goldwire 4
White 2
Other 1

[elvis14]

Here's my first draft. Hopefully I don't have to change this. I hate that Vrank is so low because he's such a nice kid, but we have so many talented big men in front of him.

K's 7 Man rotation:



Allen
35


Bagley
30


Trent
30


Duval
30


Carter
25


Delaurier
18


Bolden
15
















The bench:



Goldwire
5


O'Connell
4


Tucker
3


White
2


Vrank
2


Other
1

[kAzE]

Okay, I just re-read the rules and I did it wrong . . .

Here's the actual entry that adds up to 200:

Grayson Allen: 36
Trevon Duval: 32
Gary Trent: 32
Marvin Bagley: 32
Wendell Carter: 28
Javin DeLaurier: 22
Marques Bolden: 12
Antonio Vrankovic: 2
Jack White: 2
Others: 2

Here's my official entry, making a few edits to my first draft after watching the NWMSU game:

Grayson Allen: 35
Gary Trent: 33
Marvin Bagley: 32
Trevon Duval: 32
Wendell Carter: 28
Javin DeLaurier: 22
Marques Bolden: 12
Jordan Goldwire: 3
Jack White: 1
Others: 2

[SenatorClayDavis]

Allen 35
Bagley 33
Trent 31
Duval 31
Carter 30
DeLaurier 16
Bolden 10
Vrank 6
Goldwire 4
White 2
Tucker 1
O'Connell 1

[azzefkram]

I'll give it a go.

Allen 35
Bagley 30
Trent 30
Duval 30
Carter 25
DeLaurier 20
Bolden 18
Goldwire 8
Vrank 1
White 1
Tucker 1
O'Connell 1

[DallasDevil]

Allen: 35
Duval: 32
Bagley: 31
Trent: 29
Carter: 26
DeLaurier: 18
Bolden: 17
Goldwire: 5
Vrankovic: 3
White: 2
O'Connell: 2

[theschwartz]

Winning entry right here. I think by the time ACC season rolls around, Grayson is gonna be playing a solid 38-40 mpg, and we're gonna shorten up to a 6.5 man rotation, as per usual. The bulk of the minutes that Tucker, Vrank, and the rest of the bench crew sees this year will come in the non-conference.

Allen 37
Duval 33
Trent 31
Bagley 30
Carter 25
Bolden 16
DeLaurier 15
Tucker 6
Vrankovic 3
Goldwire 2
O'Connell 1
White 1

[DukieInBrasil]

Allen 35
Bagley 30
Bolden 17
Carter 27
Delaurier 19
Duval 31
Goldwire 5
O'Connell 3
Trent 26
Tucker 4
Vrank 2
others 1

*others obviously being Jack White, Justin Robinson and Mike Buckmire

This breaks down to the "Bigs" getting 95 mpg, which equates to always having 2 of our 5 bigs on the floor and either Bagley or Javin playing the 3 for ~15 mpg.
Watching the CTC and 1st exhibition radically altered my view on Javin's readiness, as well as Goldwire's and reduced my expectations for Tucker.
Javin hit a 3 in both games, so i think that he may realistically be able to play the "3" while 2 other bigs hold the post. His defensive energy and rebounding is so superior to non-starter options that he may a) become a starter or b) just be too valuable to leave on the bench in lots of situations.
Goldwire is not a savior, but he showed himself to be competent and when Duval gets in foul trouble or struggles too much, my eyes saw that J-Gold is a better option for back-up PG than Grayson, and not b/c he actually is (although he may be) but b/c Duke will be much better off allowing Grayson to play SG with J-Gold at PG rather than putting Grayson at PG.
J-Tuck may be nursing an undisclosed injury or getting over an illness, but he didn't play much and didn't do much when he did. If Goldwire gets those backup PG minutes, and continues to shoot the 3 at a reasonable clip, it may not be necessary to rely on J-Tuck as an additional 3pt shooter.
I really liked what i saw from Trent, but his lack of 3pt shooting and reliance on the dreaded low-efficiency long range 2pt shot may put a cap on how much run he gets. I did see decent defensive chops from him so that might raise the cap on his PT.
I agree with an observation from earlier that our depth in the post may give K the opportunity to get them to always battle, never rest, which is why i found 2 mpg (80 total minutes for the season) for Vrank despite 4 guys ahead of him. The same always battle never rest mentality is also what made me think that there may be 480 total minutes this season for J-Gold, J-Tuck and Alex (40 games * 12 mpg). 4, 5 and 6 minutes puts them outside of the "rotation" but puts them in the "valued reserve" category, essentially any one of them might be the 0.5 in a 7.5 man rotation on any given night. I also think that there is a pretty high chance that all three of them will play in most, probably not all, 40 games this year.
I just don't see much chance for Jack or Justin to play much outside of pure garbage time, so 40 minutes total for the 2 of them seems legit. I'm not sure Buckmire even sees the floor this year.

[CDu]

Okay, having now seen the scrimmage, I am going to revise a bit:
Allen (36)
Duval (33)
Bagley (31)
Trent (28)
Carter (26)
Bolden (16)
DeLaurier (16)
Goldwire (6)
O’Connell (4)
Vrank (2)
Tucker (1)
White (1)

[Spanarkel]

Wendell is clearly a very skilled big yet a quick count of the minutes submissions so far(44 or so)shows that 29 posters have him playing the 5th most minutes on the team this season(only 2 have him playing the 3rd most and 2 more have him tied for 3rd, with 11 posters guessing he'll be 4th/tied for 4th). I'm guessing this is due to our generous supply of talented bigs(though Carter is clearly ahead of Bolden at center), but also probably due to K's penchant for going small(will be hard to do that this year IMO), mixed in with big men taking longer to develop in general than guards/forwards with a possible concern for foul trouble limiting his minutes and the hard transition from HS to college in conditioning. Any other thoughts? Thanks! LGD!

[CDu]

Wendell is clearly a very skilled big yet a quick count of the minutes submissions so far(44 or so)shows that 29 posters have him playing the 5th most minutes on the team this season(only 2 have him playing the 3rd most and 2 more have him tied for 3rd, with 11 posters guessing he'll be 4th/tied for 4th). I'm guessing this is due to our generous supply of talented bigs(though Carter is clearly ahead of Bolden at center), but also probably due to K's penchant for going small(will be hard to do that this year IMO), mixed in with big men taking longer to develop in general than guards/forwards with a possible concern for foul trouble limiting his minutes and the hard transition from HS to college in conditioning. Any other thoughts? Thanks! LGD!

My rationale is as follows:
1. Relative to other positions, he has the most competition. We have a HUUUUUUUUUGE dropoff from our starters at PG, SG, and SF, which means those guys are going to all play a lot. While DeLaurier appears to be a very capable option at PF, Bagley is arguably the best and most unique talent on the team. Carter is better than Bolden, but that's the closest race of the bunch by a lot.
2. The center position is the most physically demanding, which often means guys play fewer minutes there than elsewhere.
3. The center position also tends to incur a lot of fouls, which may necessitate fewer minutes.

[elvis14]

My rationale is as follows:
1. Relative to other positions, he has the most competition. We have a HUUUUUUUUUGE dropoff from our starters at PG, SG, and SF, which means those guys are going to all play a lot. While DeLaurier appears to be a very capable option at PF, Bagley is arguably the best and most unique talent on the team. Carter is better than Bolden, but that's the closest race of the bunch by a lot.
2. The center position is the most physically demanding, which often means guys play fewer minutes there than elsewhere.
3. The center position also tends to incur a lot of fouls, which may necessitate fewer minutes.

Along those same lines I just simply thought "Guys that big generally don't play 30+ minutes". Now, having said that, I admit that I have no evidence to backup my assertion.

[DukieInBrasil]

Along those same lines I just simply thought "Guys that big generally don't play 30+ minutes". Now, having said that, I admit that I have no evidence to backup my assertion.

Jahlil barely broke the 30 mpg barrier, like 30.3 or so. He had some injury issues and his FTs kept him out of close games at the end, but my general understanding is that "true" PFs and Cs don't play at or beyond 30 mpg very frequently at Duke, and certainly that's more true the younger they are.
The story changes somewhat for "stretch 4s"...

[mgtr]

I remind myself that this is just a game, but I try to take these things seriously. My guesses:

Allen 35
Duval 32
Trent 31
Bagley 30
Carter 30
DeLaurier 18
Bolden 12
Goldwire 8
Tucker 2
Other 4

Possible obvious problems with this guess: No specific guesses for Vrank, few minutes for Bolden. Tucker might be injured, and will actually get many more minutes (or not). Before CTC, I thought White might do something, but we haven't seen much yet.
Regardless of minutes distribution, I want and expect us to do very well this year. I'm ready. Go Duke!

[JNort]

Allen 36
Duval 30
Bagley 31
Trent 29
Carter 24
Bolden 16
DeLaurier 20
Goldwire 6
O’Connell 4
Vrank 2
Tucker 1
White 1

[cato]

I always hope for more, generally don't see it happening.

The thing is, there aren’t enough games — and games aren’t long enough — to call the dogs off. Remember when MD thought they would beat Duke in the Final Four? Me too.

K needs to teach his teams to win. He has decided that he does that best in college ball by finding who puts games away.

I’m sure he wants to go deeper, but he always finds a steep drop off at some point and that’s where his bench ends.

[luburch]

Allen 36
Bagley 32
Duval 32
Trent 32
Carter 25
Bolden 15
DeLaurier 15
Goldwire 3
White 3
O'Connell 3
Other 4

[Kedsy]

Personally, I think this contest is skewed too much by how many garbage-time minutes will be available this season, and for that reason I have declined to participate in the past. But I guess I can give it a shot:

Grayson Allen: 36
Trevon Duval: 34
Gary Trent: 29
Marvin Bagley: 30
Wendell Carter: 26
Javin DeLaurier: 18
Marques Bolden: 16
Jordan Goldwire: 3
Jordan Tucker: 2.5
Alex O'Connell: 2.5
Jack White: 1.5
Others: 1.5 (Antonio Vrankovic; Justin Robinson; walk-ons)

[MarkD83]

In an attempt to win this contest one needs to be a contrarian.

Trent 30
Duval 30
Allen 30
Bagley 27
Carter 25
Bolden 25
DeLaurier 18
Goldwire 15
Other 0

[sagegrouse]

Well, someone has to come in last.

Observation #1: We have four "floor-ready" players for 80 minutes in two front-court positions -- Bagley, Bolden, Carter and DeLaurier. Vrank can also contribute. That's four+ players for 80 minutes.

Observation #2: We have three players ready to take the floor for the wing and guard positions -- Grayson, Duval and Trent. That's three players for 120 minutes. Something has to give. I suppose DeLaurier, Bagley and Carter can play some minutes on the wing (10 mins. I think), but that's not the total solution. There are opportunities for White, O'Connell, Goldwire, or Tucker -- who, I guess, will total nearly 20.



34 Grayson Allen
32 Marvin Bagley III
28 Wendell Carter, Jr.
26 Trevon Duval
26 Gary Trent, Jr.
15 Javin DeLaurier
15 Marques Bolden
7 Jack White
7 Jordan Goldwire
5 Antonio Vrankovic
3 Alex O'Connell
2 Jordan Tucker
200 Total

[Neals384]

Allen 35
Trent 31
Duval 30
Bagley 30
Carter 26
Bolden 16
DeLaurier 19
Goldwire 4
Tucker 2
O'Connell 2
White 2
Vrankovic 2
Other 1

[MarkD83]

Well, someone has to come in last.

Observation #1: We have four "floor-ready" players for 80 minutes in two front-court positions -- Bagley, Bolden, Carter and DeLaurier. Vrank can also contribute. That's four+ players for 80 minutes.

Observation #2: We have three players ready to take the floor for the wing and guard positions -- Grayson, Duval and Trent. That's three players for 120 minutes. Something has to give. I suppose DeLaurier, Bagley and Carter can play some minutes on the wing (10 mins. I think), but that's not the total solution. There are opportunities for White, O'Connell, Goldwire, or Tucker -- who, I guess, will total nearly 20.



34 Grayson Allen
32 Marvin Bagley III
28 Wendell Carter, Jr.
26 Trevon Duval
26 Gary Trent, Jr.
15 Javin DeLaurier
15 Marques Bolden
7 Jack White
7 Jordan Goldwire
5 Antonio Vrankovic
3 Alex O'Connell
2 Jordan Tucker
200 Total


My logic was to be a little different and to factor in that coach k will become guard centric near the end of games and the freshmen bigs will get into foul trouble. I also figured that the extra minutes from deep bench players would not be the deciding factor in the contest. I do wish coach k would go 12 deep but that won't be a prudent way to win this contest

[House P]

In an attempt to win this contest one needs to be a contrarian.


I am also taking the approach that taking a bit of a contrarian approach provides the best chance of winning (and also the best chance of challenging Sagegrouse for last place). With that in mind, I decided to follow the old adage "the best way to predict the future is to look at what happened exactly 18 years ago". :)

Therefore, I based my picks roughly on the minutes distribution of the 2000 team using the following comparisons in terms of minutes played:

Grayson ~ Carrawell
Duvall ~ JWill
Bagley ~ Shane
Trent ~ Nate
Wendell ~ Boozer
Javin = Dunleavy
Marques = Matt Christensen
Jack = Horvath
Goldwire = Andre Buckner
O'Connell = Casey Sanders (!?!?)
Tucker = JD Simpson

The comparisons with 2000 aren't perfect, but this approach forced me to make a couple somewhat contrarian picks (which, I think, are still somewhat possible). In particular,

- I expect Marques to play more than Matt Christensen, but a reasonable contrarian approach might be to predict one of the "top 7" players to end up with far fewer minutes than conventional wisdom predicts (due to injury, underperformance, mid season transfer, Seth Greenberg mandated suspension, or whatever happened to Chase Jeter last year). I couldn't bring myself to predict any significant missed time for any of Duke's top 5 players, so I decided to go with Marquis as the guy with significantly less minutes than the general consensus.

- Nick Horvath played about 8 mpg (adjusted for OT games) in 2000. I couldn't bring myself to pick one particular player outside Duke's consensus top 7 to receive this many minutes, but I did go with a bit of a contrarian pick and choose Jack White to receive more minutes (5) than O'Connell (4). No real reason for this other than I expect most folks wouldn't do this.

Anyway, here are my picks.



Grayson Allen
35


Marvin Bagley
34


Trevon Duvall
33


Gary Trent
28


Wendell Carter
25


Javin DeLaurier
20


Marques Bolden
10


Jack White
5


Jordan Goldwire
4


Alex O'Connell
4


Jordan Tucker
1.5


Antonio Vrankovic
1.5



Note that my estimates sum to 201, because I expect a couple OT games. If the contest requires a maximum of 200 total mpg, I would remove 1 mpg from O'Connell.

[timmy c]

A friendly submission with a minute comparison to past blue devils.

Allen - 37 - Big minutes from Allen to rival Redick's 37.3 minute average in '04-'05
Trent - 33 - Scheyer's '06-'07 freshman season
Bagley - 30 - (Ingram + Winslow)/2
Duval - 27 - Fr. Chris Duhon
Carter - 26 - (Fr. Boozer + Okafor)/2
Delaurier - 22- So. Jefferson
Goldwire - 10 - Fr. Thornton
Bolden - 10 - So. Zoubek
Vrankovic - 3 - less than Jr. Horvath
Other - 2 - See Pocius, Murphy & Buckner

[Kedsy]

Anyone have Justin Robinson averaging 11.5 mpg?

[Fish80]

Anyone have Justin Robinson averaging 11.5 mpg?

No, but I did have him averaging 2 minutes. I might bump that up, I like what I see.

[Kedsy]

No, but I did have him averaging 2 minutes. I might bump that up, I like what I see.

I thought the deadline to modify is past?

As great as Justin looked in both exhibitions, I'll be shocked if he tops 2mpg.

That said, a team consisting of our non-rotation players (Alex, Jordan T, Jordan G, Antonio, Jack, Justin, and Mike B) would probably be the strong favorite to win most or all low-major conferences and some mid-major. I could see that team getting a #13 seed out of the MAAC.

[Fish80]

I thought the deadline to modify is past?

As great as Justin looked in both exhibitions, I'll be shocked if he tops 2mpg.

That said, a team consisting of our non-rotation players (Alex, Jordan T, Jordan G, Antonio, Jack, Justin, and Mike B) would probably be the strong favorite to win most or all low-major conferences and some mid-major. I could see that team getting a #13 seed out of the MAAC.

Yeah, deadline is past.

Very tough to predict minutes this year. With DeLaurier and Bolden in the mix, we may see 7 guys average over 25 minutes.

[CDu]

Yeah, deadline is past.

Very tough to predict minutes this year. With DeLaurier and Bolden in the mix, we may see 7 guys average over 25 minutes.

Unless you think that Allen and Duval will rarely see the floor together, I think that it is highly unlikely 7 guys will average 25 minutes.

[Kedsy]

Unless you think that Allen and Duval will rarely see the floor together, I think that it is highly unlikely 7 guys will average 25 minutes.

He said "over 25 minutes." This is NOT what I predicted, but theoretically it could be:

Allen: 35
Duval: 35
Carter: 25
Bagley: 25
Trent: 25
DeLaurier: 25
Bolden: 25
Others: 5

So, I don't think it would have anything to do with Allen and Duval not playing together.

[kAzE]

With the way Trent has played thus far, I'd be shocked if he played fewer than 30 mins a game. He's been the 2nd best player on the perimeter, and that's where we aren't deep. Duval will obviously play a ton too, but in the sample we've seen so far, he hasn't been as polished and as steady as Trent. He's also clearly not as good a shooter as Trent. I think Coach K will definitely use some lineups where Grayson and Gary are the back court.

[pfrduke]

Here is the chart of everyone's entries. Good luck to all participants:




Allen
Bagley
Duval
Trent
Carter
DeLaurier
Bolden
Goldwire
O'Connell
Vrankovic
Tucker
White
Other
Robinson



arnie
38
32
34
32
30
16
8
8
0
0
0
0
2
0
200


azzefkram
35
30
30
30
25
20
18
8
1
1
1
1
0
0
200


Bluealum
35
30
30
29
29
18
14
6
2
2
4
1
0
0
200


BullBlue
35
32
30
30
27
18
18
4
2
2
0
2
0
0
200


cbarry
35
34
34
33
33
8
10
5
5
1
1
1
0
0
200


CDu
36
31
33
28
26
16
16
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
35
32
31
26
26
12
20
2
2
4
4
5
1
0
200


COYS
35
32
32
29
28
16
13
8
2
2
2
1
0
0
200


curtis325
31
29
29
27
24
22
22
0
4
2
5
3
2
0
200


DallasDevil
35
31
32
29
26
18
17
5
2
3
0
2
0
0
200


David Bunkley
34
22
27
29
20
17
15
4
4
10
12
4
2
0
200


DCDevil9194
35
29
32
29
26
19
18
6
4
0
0
0
2
0
200


devilsince1977
33
31
28
29
26
17
15
7
3
3
3
4
1
0
200


dragoneye776
34
34
30
30
29
16
10
8
2
2
4
1
0
0
200


drummerdevil
35
31
30
30
26
22
15
8
0
0
0
0
3
0
200


Duke79UNLV77
35
32
30
30
25
16
16
4
4
0
3
3
2
0
200


DukeBlue666s
33
31
28
24
30
16
18
6
6
6
0
2
0
0
200


DukieInBrasil
35
30
31
26
27
19
17
5
3
2
4
0
1
0
200


DukieTiger
35
30
32
30
26
18
16
2
4
3
2
2
0
0
200


elvis14
35
30
30
30
25
18
15
5
4
2
3
2
1
0
200


FerryFor50
35
33
30
25
25
14
22
4
3
5
1
2
1
0
200


Fish80
32
20
28
15
25
22
25
5
2
10
10
4
0
2
200


flyingdutchdevil
36
32
27
33
29
20
15
4
0
0
0
0
4
0
200


Furniture
35
33
30
28
28
16
20
0
6
0
0
4
0
0
200


fuse
35
30
32
25
20
20
20
8
5
5
0
0
0
0
200


Gooch
35
33
30
32
25
18
12
7
2
0
3
0
3
0
200


Hauerwas
36
33
33
23
27
15
15
0
2
5
8
3
0
0
200


House P
35
34
33
28
25
20
10
4
4
1.5
1.5
5
0
0
201


JNort
36
31
30
29
24
20
16
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
200


jv001
37
30
28
32
30
18
13
7
1
1
1
1
1
0
200


kAzE
35
32
32
33
28
22
12
3
0
0
0
1
2
0
200


Kedsy
36
30
34
29
26
18
16
3
2.5
0
2.5
1.5
1.5
0
200


luburch
36
32
32
32
25
15
15
3
3
0
0
3
4
0
200


luvdahops
34
30
32
28
27
20
15
4
4
0
3
0
3
0
200


MarkD83
30
27
30
30
25
18
25
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
200


Matches
37
33
36
33
31
9
15
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
200


MChambers
35
29
32
30
25
20
17
4
3
3
0
2
0
0
200


mgtr
35
30
32
31
30
18
12
8
0
0
2
0
4
0
202


mr. snyellinden
36
32
32
24
28
18
20
2
6
0
0
0
2
0
200


Neals384
35
30
30
31
26
19
16
4
2
2
2
2
1
0
200


NSDukeFan
32
30
29
30
28
16
18
4
5
0
5
2
1
0
200


richardjackson199
37
33
36
20
33
4
23
4
10
0
0
0
0
0
200


sagegrouse
34
32
26
26
28
15
15
7
3
5
2
7
0
0
200


SenatorClayDavis
35
33
31
31
30
16
10
4
1
6
1
2
0
0
200


Spanarkel
34
31
28
23
29
17
16
7
3
4
2
6
0
0
200


theschwartz
37
30
33
31
25
15
16
2
1
3
6
1
0
0
200


timmy c
37
30
27
33
26
22
10
10
0
3
0
0
2
0
200


Troublemaker
35
33
29
31
30
16
11
7
3
2
2
1
0
0
200


Ultrarunner
36
28
31
31
26
18
15
5
2
2
2
2
2
0
200


whereinthehellami
36
33
31
30
29
17
12
4
2
2
2
2
0
0
200



The board average is:
Allen - 35
Bagley - 30.8
Duval - 30.7
Trent - 28.7
Carter - 26.9
DeLaurier - 17.2
Bolden - 15.8
Goldwire - 5.1
O'Connell - 2.8
Vrankovic - 2.2
Tucker - 2.1
White - 1.8
Other - 1
Robinson - 0.04

[CDu]

He said "over 25 minutes." This is NOT what I predicted, but theoretically it could be:

Allen: 35
Duval: 35
Carter: 25
Bagley: 25
Trent: 25
DeLaurier: 25
Bolden: 25
Others: 5

So, I don't think it would have anything to do with Allen and Duval not playing together.

Yeah, I understood what he/she was saying. To paraphrase OPK, I meant 25 as a threshold, not a destination. And I don’t believe that Bagley will play so little as the hypothetical presented above. Same for Trent. Hence my statement that unless those two guards see less of the floor together, it will be highly unlikely for 7 to average 25 minutes per game. Yes, there are mathematical scenarios that would work. I just think they are highly, highly unlikely.

[mgtr]

I see that there was only poor fool who couldn't get the numbers to add up correctly -- me! If that does not immediately disqualify me, I would be happy for somebody just to take out 2 minutes from one player (any, it is all kind of random guesswork anyway) so that I don't look light blue! Thanks.

[sagegrouse]

I see that there was only poor fool who couldn't get the numbers to add up correctly -- me! If that does not immediately disqualify me, I would be happy for somebody just to take out 2 minutes from one player (any, it is all kind of random guesswork anyway) so that I don't look light blue! Thanks.

Don't forget "overtime." Each OT period adds about one-half minute to the average total minutes, as in 20 minutes/40 games = 0.5.

The last six years have had 0-2-2-1-0-2 overtime periods.

[Fish80]

Yeah, I understood what he/she was saying. To paraphrase OPK, I meant 25 as a threshold, not a destination. And I don’t believe that Bagley will play so little as the hypothetical presented above. Same for Trent. Hence my statement that unless those two guards see less of the floor together, it will be highly unlikely for 7 to average 25 minutes per game. Yes, there are mathematical scenarios that would work. I just think they are highly, highly unlikely.


Fun with math. Theoretically it could be:

Allen: 30
Trent: 30
Carter: 28
Bagley: 28
Duval: 25
DeLaurier: 25
Bolden: 25
Others: 9

:)

[CDu]

Fun with math. Theoretically it could be:

Allen: 30
Trent: 30
Carter: 28
Bagley: 28
Duval: 25
DeLaurier: 25
Bolden: 25
Others: 9

:)

Like I said, unless you see those two guards sharing the court very little (in that scenario they would play together no more than 20 minutes), it would be highly unlikely for 7 guys to play 25 mpg. And I don’t think the scenario in your post is at all likely either. I think those guards play a fair bit more, and to a lesser degree as will Bagley and Trent.

[pfrduke]

Here's the end-of-regular season update:




Allen
Bagley
Duval
Trent
Carter
DeLaurier
Bolden
Goldwire
O'Connell
Vrankovic
Tucker
White
Other
Robinson
Total Error


Troublemaker
0.24
4.37
0.02
2.22
2.63
4.47
1.23
1.86
7.76
0.06
1.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
32.73


cbarry
0.24
5.37
5.02
0.22
5.63
3.53
0.23
0.14
5.76
1.06
0.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
34.08


elvis14
0.24
1.37
1.02
3.22
2.37
6.47
5.23
0.14
6.76
0.06
2.55
2.69
0.84
2.47
35.44


Ultrarunner
1.24
0.63
2.02
2.22
1.37
6.47
5.23
0.14
8.76
0.06
1.55
2.69
1.84
2.47
36.69


SenatorClayDavis
0.24
4.37
2.02
2.22
2.63
4.47
0.23
1.14
9.76
3.94
0.55
2.69
0.16
2.47
36.90


whereinthehellami
1.24
4.37
2.02
3.22
1.63
5.47
2.23
1.14
8.76
0.06
1.55
2.69
0.16
2.47
37.01


Neals384
0.24
1.37
1.02
2.22
1.37
7.47
6.23
1.14
8.76
0.06
1.55
2.69
0.84
2.47
37.44


dragoneye776
0.76
5.37
1.02
3.22
1.63
4.47
0.23
2.86
8.76
0.06
3.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
38.26


jv001
2.24
1.37
0.98
1.22
2.63
6.47
3.23
1.86
9.76
1.06
0.55
3.69
0.84
2.47
38.37


House P
0.24
5.37
4.02
5.22
2.37
8.47
0.23
1.14
6.76
0.56
1.05
0.31
0.16
2.47
38.38


devilsince1977
1.76
2.37
0.98
4.22
1.37
5.47
5.23
1.86
7.76
0.94
2.55
0.69
0.84
2.47
38.53


BullBlue
0.24
3.37
1.02
3.22
0.37
6.47
8.23
1.14
8.76
0.06
0.45
2.69
0.16
2.47
38.66


Bluealum
0.24
1.37
1.02
4.22
1.63
6.47
4.23
0.86
8.76
0.06
3.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
38.73


COYS
0.24
3.37
3.02
4.22
0.63
4.47
3.23
2.86
8.76
0.06
1.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
38.73


Duke79UNLV77
0.24
3.37
1.02
3.22
2.37
4.47
6.23
1.14
6.76
2.06
2.55
1.69
1.84
2.47
39.44


CDu
1.24
2.37
4.02
5.22
1.37
4.47
6.23
0.86
6.76
0.06
0.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
39.48


DukieTiger
0.24
1.37
3.02
3.22
1.37
6.47
6.23
3.14
6.76
0.94
1.55
2.69
0.16
2.47
39.65


NSDukeFan
2.76
1.37
0.02
3.22
0.63
4.47
8.23
1.14
5.76
2.06
4.55
2.69
0.84
2.47
40.22


luburch
1.24
3.37
3.02
1.22
2.37
3.47
5.23
2.14
7.76
2.06
0.45
1.69
3.84
2.47
40.34


DallasDevil
0.24
2.37
3.02
4.22
1.37
6.47
7.23
0.14
8.76
0.94
0.45
2.69
0.16
2.47
40.55


MChambers
0.24
0.37
3.02
3.22
2.37
8.47
7.23
1.14
7.76
0.94
0.45
2.69
0.16
2.47
40.55


JNort
1.24
2.37
1.02
4.22
3.37
8.47
6.23
0.86
6.76
0.06
0.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
41.48


Furniture
0.24
4.37
1.02
5.22
0.63
4.47
10.23
5.14
4.76
2.06
0.45
0.69
0.16
2.47
41.91


sagegrouse
0.76
3.37
2.98
7.22
0.63
3.47
5.23
1.86
7.76
2.94
1.55
2.31
0.16
2.47
42.72


Gooch
0.24
4.37
1.02
1.22
2.37
6.47
2.23
1.86
8.76
2.06
2.55
4.69
2.84
2.47
43.16


kAzE
0.24
3.37
3.02
0.22
0.63
10.47
2.23
2.14
10.76
2.06
0.45
3.69
1.84
2.47
43.59


timmy c
2.24
1.37
1.98
0.22
1.37
10.47
0.23
4.86
10.76
0.94
0.45
4.69
1.84
2.47
43.90


DCDevil9194
0.24
0.37
3.02
4.22
1.37
7.47
8.23
0.86
6.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
1.84
2.47
44.06


Spanarkel
0.76
2.37
0.98
10.22
1.63
5.47
6.23
1.86
7.76
1.94
1.55
1.31
0.16
2.47
44.72


DukeBlue666s
1.76
2.37
0.98
9.22
2.63
4.47
8.23
0.86
4.76
3.94
0.45
2.69
0.16
2.47
45.00


DukieInBrasil
0.24
1.37
2.02
7.22
0.37
7.47
7.23
0.14
7.76
0.06
3.55
4.69
0.84
2.47
45.44


azzefkram
0.24
1.37
1.02
3.22
2.37
8.47
8.23
2.86
9.76
1.06
0.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
45.48


ChillinDuke
0.24
3.37
2.02
7.22
1.37
0.47
10.23
3.14
8.76
1.94
3.55
0.31
0.84
2.47
45.94


mgtr
0.24
1.37
3.02
2.22
2.63
6.47
2.23
2.86
10.76
2.06
1.55
4.69
3.84
2.47
46.41


arnie
3.24
3.37
5.02
1.22
2.63
4.47
1.77
2.86
10.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
1.84
2.47
46.84


luvdahops
0.76
1.37
3.02
5.22
0.37
8.47
5.23
1.14
6.76
2.06
2.55
4.69
2.84
2.47
46.96


Kedsy
1.24
1.37
5.02
4.22
1.37
6.47
6.23
2.14
8.26
2.06
2.05
3.19
1.34
2.47
47.44


flyingdutchdevil
1.24
3.37
1.98
0.22
1.63
8.47
5.23
1.14
10.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
3.84
2.47
47.55


theschwartz
2.24
1.37
4.02
2.22
2.37
3.47
6.23
3.14
9.76
0.94
5.55
3.69
0.16
2.47
47.65


Matches
2.24
4.37
7.02
0.22
3.63
2.53
5.23
3.14
8.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
1.84
2.47
48.66


FerryFor50
0.24
4.37
1.02
8.22
2.37
2.47
12.23
1.14
7.76
2.94
0.55
2.69
0.84
2.47
49.33


drummerdevil
0.24
2.37
1.02
3.22
1.37
10.47
5.23
2.86
10.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
2.84
2.47
50.06


mr. snyellinden
1.24
3.37
3.02
9.22
0.63
6.47
10.23
3.14
4.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
1.84
2.47
53.59


Hauerwas
1.24
4.37
4.02
10.22
0.37
3.47
5.23
5.14
8.76
2.94
7.55
1.69
0.16
2.47
57.65


fuse
0.24
1.37
3.02
8.22
7.37
8.47
10.23
2.86
5.76
2.94
0.45
4.69
0.16
2.47
58.27


curtis325
3.76
0.37
0.02
6.22
3.37
10.47
12.23
5.14
6.76
0.06
4.55
1.69
1.84
2.47
58.96


David Bunkley
0.76
6.63
1.98
4.22
7.37
5.47
5.23
1.14
6.76
7.94
11.55
0.69
1.84
2.47
64.06


richardjackson199
2.24
4.37
7.02
13.22
5.63
7.53
13.23
1.14
0.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
0.16
2.47
64.98


MarkD83
4.76
1.63
1.02
3.22
2.37
6.47
15.23
9.86
10.76
2.06
0.45
4.69
0.16
2.47
65.16


Fish80
2.76
8.63
0.98
18.22
2.37
10.47
15.23
0.14
8.76
7.94
9.55
0.69
0.16
0.47
86.39

[pfrduke]

Also, a note:

The rules say that anyone under 2 mpg will be treated as "other" unless separately guessed. This applies only to Tucker and Buckmire this year, and no one guessed Buckmire minutes, so it really only affects Tucker. I have decided NOT to combine Tucker with "other" because it was much more complicated to script how that would be balanced. I do not believe it affects any of the standings because the differences there are so small, but if anyone wants to protest given the after-the-fact rule change, I'm all ears.

[Troublemaker]

Here's the end-of-regular season update:

Nice. I finished a close second to mattman a couple of seasons ago. Hopefully I can hang on for victory this season.

[richardjackson199]

Who ended up winning this contest?

[pfrduke]

Who ended up winning this contest?

I lost the spreadsheet (or, more precisely, I lost the computer on which the spreadsheet was saved without a backup copy). I'll put it back together to post the final results, but won't have a chance to do it for at least a few days.

[pfrduke]

Here are the finals - cbarry passed Troublemaker to claim the victory by closing the gap on Duval minutes and being more precise on DeLaurier and Bolden.

Also, you will see that I included the DBR average (the average of everyone's picks) - it finished 6th in the contest, although special merit goes to the collective group for hitting Carter's mpg almost perfectly: the group average was 26.94 and his mpg for the season was 26.95.

The chart is presented in two parts because of character limits




Allen
Bagley
Duval
Trent
Carter
DeLaurier
Bolden
Goldwire
O'Connell
Vrankovic
Tucker
White
Other
Robinson
Total


cbarry
0.65
3.78
4.19
0.86
6.05
3.32
0.08
0.43
5.08
0.78
0.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
31.51


Troublemaker
0.65
2.78
0.81
2.86
3.05
4.68
0.92
2.43
7.08
0.22
1.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
32.76


whereinthehellami
0.35
2.78
1.19
3.86
2.05
5.68
1.92
0.57
8.08
0.22
1.62
2.30
0.14
2.22
32.97


elvis14
0.65
0.22
0.19
3.86
1.95
6.68
4.92
0.43
6.08
0.22
2.62
2.30
0.86
2.22
33.19


Neals384
0.65
0.22
0.19
2.86
0.95
7.68
5.92
0.57
8.08
0.22
1.62
2.30
0.86
2.22
34.32


DBR Average
0.69
0.58
0.93
5.12
0.01
5.84
5.68
0.51
7.29
0.39
1.74
2.55
0.87
2.18
34.38


SenatorClayDavis
0.65
2.78
1.19
2.86
3.05
4.68
0.08
0.57
9.08
4.22
0.62
2.30
0.14
2.22
34.43


luburch
0.35
1.78
2.19
1.86
1.95
3.68
4.92
1.57
7.08
1.78
0.38
1.30
3.86
2.22
34.92


BullBlue
0.65
1.78
0.19
3.86
0.05
6.68
7.92
0.57
8.08
0.22
0.38
2.30
0.14
2.22
35.03


House P
0.65
3.78
3.19
5.86
1.95
8.68
0.08
0.57
6.08
0.28
1.12
0.70
0.14
2.22
35.30


Duke79UNLV77
0.65
1.78
0.19
3.86
1.95
4.68
5.92
0.57
6.08
1.78
2.62
1.30
1.86
2.22
35.46


CDu
0.35
0.78
3.19
5.86
0.95
4.68
5.92
1.43
6.08
0.22
0.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
35.73


Ultrarunner
0.35
2.22
1.19
2.86
0.95
6.68
4.92
0.43
8.08
0.22
1.62
2.30
1.86
2.22
35.89


DukieTiger
0.65
0.22
2.19
3.86
0.95
6.68
5.92
2.57
6.08
1.22
1.62
2.30
0.14
2.22
36.59


COYS
0.65
1.78
2.19
4.86
1.05
4.68
2.92
3.43
8.08
0.22
1.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
37.14


jv001
1.35
0.22
1.81
1.86
3.05
6.68
2.92
2.43
9.08
0.78
0.62
3.30
0.86
2.22
37.19


dragoneye776
1.65
3.78
0.19
3.86
2.05
4.68
0.08
3.43
8.08
0.22
3.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
37.30


Bluealum
0.65
0.22
0.19
4.86
2.05
6.68
3.92
1.43
8.08
0.22
3.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
37.57


JNort
0.35
0.78
0.19
4.86
2.95
8.68
5.92
1.43
6.08
0.22
0.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
37.73


DallasDevil
0.65
0.78
2.19
4.86
0.95
6.68
6.92
0.43
8.08
1.22
0.38
2.30
0.14
2.22
37.78


devilsince1977
2.65
0.78
1.81
4.86
0.95
5.68
4.92
2.43
7.08
1.22
2.62
0.30
0.86
2.22
38.38


Furniture
0.65
2.78
0.19
5.86
1.05
4.68
9.92
4.57
4.08
1.78
0.38
0.30
0.14
2.22
38.59


MChambers
0.65
1.22
2.19
3.86
1.95
8.68
6.92
0.57
7.08
1.22
0.38
2.30
0.14
2.22
39.35


NSDukeFan
3.65
0.22
0.81
3.86
1.05
4.68
7.92
0.57
5.08
1.78
4.62
2.30
0.86
2.22
39.62


Gooch
0.65
2.78
0.19
1.86
1.95
6.68
1.92
2.43
8.08
1.78
2.62
4.30
2.86
2.22
40.32


kAzE
0.65
1.78
2.19
0.86
1.05
10.68
1.92
1.57
10.08
1.78
0.38
3.30
1.86
2.22
40.32


timmy c
1.35
0.22
2.81
0.86
0.95
10.68
0.08
5.43
10.08
1.22
0.38
4.30
1.86
2.22
42.43


Kedsy
0.35
0.22
4.19
4.86
0.95
6.68
5.92
1.57
7.58
1.78
2.12
2.80
1.36
2.22
42.59


azzefkram
0.65
0.22
0.19
3.86
1.95
8.68
7.92
3.43
9.08
0.78
0.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
43.03


Chillin Duke
0.65
1.78
1.19
7.86
0.95
0.68
9.92
2.57
8.08
2.22
3.62
0.70
0.86
2.22
43.30


DukieInBrasil
0.65
0.22
1.19
7.86
0.05
7.68
6.92
0.43
7.08
0.22
3.62
4.30
0.86
2.22
43.30


theschwartz
1.35
0.22
3.19
2.86
1.95
3.68
5.92
2.57
9.08
1.22
5.62
3.30
0.14
2.22
43.30


DCDevil9194
0.65
1.22
2.19
4.86
0.95
7.68
7.92
1.43
6.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
1.86
2.22
43.51


Matches
1.35
2.78
6.19
0.86
4.05
2.32
4.92
2.57
8.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
1.86
2.22
43.68


luvdahops
1.65
0.22
2.19
5.86
0.05
8.68
4.92
0.57
6.08
1.78
2.62
4.30
2.86
2.22
44.00


arnie
2.35
1.78
4.19
1.86
3.05
4.68
2.08
3.43
10.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
1.86
2.22
44.05


sagegrouse
1.65
1.78
3.81
7.86
1.05
3.68
4.92
2.43
7.08
3.22
1.62
2.70
0.14
2.22
44.16


flyingdutchdevil
0.35
1.78
2.81
0.86
2.05
8.68
4.92
0.57
10.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
3.86
2.22
44.65


mgtr
0.65
0.22
2.19
2.86
3.05
6.68
1.92
3.43
10.08
1.78
1.62
4.30
3.86
2.22
44.86


DukeBlue666s
2.65
0.78
1.81
9.86
3.05
4.68
7.92
1.43
4.08
4.22
0.38
2.30
0.14
2.22
45.51


FerryFor50
0.65
2.78
0.19
8.86
1.95
2.68
11.92
0.57
7.08
3.22
0.62
2.30
0.86
2.22
45.89


Spanarkel
1.65
0.78
1.81
10.86
2.05
5.68
5.92
2.43
7.08
2.22
1.62
1.70
0.14
2.22
46.16


drummerdevil
0.65
0.78
0.19
3.86
0.95
10.68
4.92
3.43
10.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
2.86
2.22
47.08


mr. snyellidnen
0.35
1.78
2.19
9.86
1.05
6.68
9.92
2.57
4.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
1.86
2.22
49.03

[pfrduke]

Part 2:




Allen
Bagley
Duval
Trent
Carter
DeLaurier
Bolden
Goldwire
O'Connell
Vrankovic
Tucker
White
Other
Robinson
Total


Hauerwas
0.35
2.78
3.19
10.86
0.05
3.68
4.92
4.57
8.08
3.22
7.62
1.30
0.14
2.22
52.97


fuse
0.65
0.22
2.19
8.86
6.95
8.68
9.92
3.43
5.08
3.22
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
56.22


curtis325
4.65
1.22
0.81
6.86
2.95
10.68
11.92
4.57
6.08
0.22
4.62
1.30
1.86
2.22
59.95


richardjackson199
1.35
2.78
6.19
13.86
6.05
7.32
12.92
0.57
0.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
59.95


MarkD83
5.65
3.22
0.19
3.86
1.95
6.68
14.92
10.43
10.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
65.78


David Bunkley
1.65
8.22
2.81
4.86
6.95
5.68
4.92
0.57
6.08
8.22
11.62
0.30
1.86
2.22
65.95


Fish80
3.65
10.22
1.81
18.86
1.95
10.68
14.92
0.43
8.08
8.22
9.62
0.30
0.14
0.22
89.08

[devildeac]

Part 2:




Allen
Bagley
Duval
Trent
Carter
DeLaurier
Bolden
Goldwire
O'Connell
Vrankovic
Tucker
White
Other
Robinson
Total


Hauerwas
0.35
2.78
3.19
10.86
0.05
3.68
4.92
4.57
8.08
3.22
7.62
1.30
0.14
2.22
52.97


fuse
0.65
0.22
2.19
8.86
6.95
8.68
9.92
3.43
5.08
3.22
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
56.22


curtis325
4.65
1.22
0.81
6.86
2.95
10.68
11.92
4.57
6.08
0.22
4.62
1.30
1.86
2.22
59.95


richardjackson199
1.35
2.78
6.19
13.86
6.05
7.32
12.92
0.57
0.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
59.95


MarkD83
5.65
3.22
0.19
3.86
1.95
6.68
14.92
10.43
10.08
1.78
0.38
4.30
0.14
2.22
65.78


David Bunkley
1.65
8.22
2.81
4.86
6.95
5.68
4.92
0.57
6.08
8.22
11.62
0.30
1.86
2.22
65.95


Fish80
3.65
10.22
1.81
18.86
1.95
10.68
14.92
0.43
8.08
8.22
9.62
0.30
0.14
0.22
89.08



I note that richardjackson did not finish last but I still think he must owe someone a pie or a beer with that showing. :p;)

(Yea, yea, I didn't submit an entry this year so I got no room to talk. :o)

[richardjackson199]

I note that richardjackson did not finish last but I still think he must owe someone a pie or a beer with that showing. :p;)

(Yea, yea, I didn't submit an entry this year so I got no room to talk. :o)

Nah I only have 1 hair-brained pie bet going at the moment. But there will always be another. ;)

[Fish80]

I did finish last by a very healthy margin!