MBB: Duke vs Northwest Missouri St (Fri, 10/27, 7pm ET, "WatchESPN" stream)

[Troublemaker]

So, unlike most of the Division II champs we've played in recent years, NW Mo St is NOT rebuilding after significant defections.

Far from it. This was a dominant champion (35-1 record) that returns their two leading scorers, including star point guard Justin Pitts. Of the 6 players that started a significant amount of games for NW Mo St, the Bearcats return 4 of them. And overall, they return 5 of their 8-man rotation.

Last season's NWMoSt statistics (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/teamcume.htm)

This season's NWMoSt roster (http://bearcatsports.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball)

Anyway, put your pre-game, in-game, and probably post-game thoughts in here.

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[DevilFalcon]

So glad to see game threads! Duke basketball is coming!

[Troublemaker]

Some youtube highlights of star PG Justin Pitts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0EGHwa0qLg).

He'll be a nice early season test for Trevon and JGold.

[ChillinDuke]

So, unlike most of the Division II champs we've played in recent years, NW Mo St is NOT rebuilding after significant defections.

Far from it. This was a dominant champion (35-1 record) that returns their two leading scorers, including star point guard Justin Pitts. Of the 6 players that started a significant amount of games for NW Mo St, the Bearcats return 4 of them. And overall, they return 5 of their 8-man rotation.

Last season's NWMoSt statistics (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/teamcume.htm)

This season's NWMoSt roster (http://bearcatsports.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball)

Anyway, put your pre-game, in-game, and probably post-game thoughts in here.

Building off TM's intro, Northwest-Most returns its two leading scorers: Justin Pitts (at 20.9ppg) and Chris-Ebou Ndow (at 12.5). Ndow also led the team in rebounding last year at 6.7rpg. Both can hit the 3-ball (39% on 200 shots and 32% on 140 attempts, respectively). Pitts is listed at (a tiny) 5'10" 150#; Ndow is listed at 6'6" 211#. So I'd focus on those two to start.

Last year's three-point specialist, Zach Schneider, appears to be gone, so we'll have to find out who, if anyone, fills that role or if Pitts takes more threes. (Schneider hit an impressive 46% on 235 hoists, for those wondering.)

Brett Dougherty (6'7" 223# senior; 6.9ppg, 4.1rpg, 14 total blocks and 17 total steals in 19mpg) and Ryan Welty (6'7" 188# soph; 5.7, 2.3, 9 blocks in 18.2) figure to get more minutes this year with Anthony Woods and D'Vante Mosby apparently gone.

5th man appears to be 6'2" 195# senior Xavier Kurth who averaged 15.8 minutes last year with 5.6 pts, 3.4 boards, and not much else to speak of.

So that's 4 seniors and a sophomore strongly in the returning rotation. After that, if last year's mop-up minutes are any indication (in decreasing order) Grant Graham appears to no longer be on the team. Next in line is sophomore Tyler Dougherty, Brett's younger bro, who at least in stature profiles just like his brother at 1 inch shorter and 5 lbs lighter.

In my admittedly brief research, the only statements I can find on freshman signings are for Daric Laing, a 6'2" 175# guard, and Trevor Hudgins a 6'0" 165# point from Manhattan, KS. Best guess is that these are their only impact freshman - but doubtful they get much more than a cup of coffee, if that, in their first game.

No one that matters is over 6'7". Bagley, Carter, Bolden, and Vrank should be amply fed by the end of this one.

But make no mistake, while we're cooking with food references here, this team relies on Justin Pitts for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. He is preseason All-America and POY in conference.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

Can't wait to see all our guys playing on the same team and get an early glimpse at rotations and such. I of course will be cautious not to draw too many conclusions from these early games against overmatched opponents who tend to be really small. Last year had such a miserable ending and this summer has been quite tumultuous (both good and bad) so I'm just ready to get the season started!

[Troublemaker]

Ryan Welty (6'7" 188# soph; 5.7, 2.3, 9 blocks in 18.2) figure to get more minutes this year with Anthony Woods and D'Vante Mosby apparently gone.

Welty is apparently an incredible shooter. Welty -- and this is not a misprint -- hit 52 of 78 three-point attempts (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/plyr_24.htm) for 66.7%, including a 9-for-9 game against Northeastern St.

Luke Winn wrote an article (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state)for SI.com about Welty (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state), who should really shoot more often.

[Troublemaker]

In case you thought it couldn't get any better than Duke vs MSU in the Champions Classic, a battle of preseason #1 vs preseason #2...... well, Duke vs NWMoSt is preseason #1 vs preseason #1 (http://bearcatsports.com/news/2017/9/22/mens-basketball-earns-preseason-honors.aspx?path=mbball).

[mgtr]

NWMST point guard is Justin Pitts, who last year won the Bevo Francis award, given to the most outstanding player in all small college basketball. I first heard of Bevo Francis when he played against the Globetrotters on the designated losing team (Boston Whirlwinds) in the 1950s. Francis played college ball at the (now) University of Rio Grande, setting all kinds of scoring records, including one game of 113 points.
So, Pitts must be really good!

[Kedsy]

Welty is apparently an incredible shooter. Welty -- and this is not a misprint -- hit 52 of 78 three-point attempts (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/plyr_24.htm) for 66.7%, including a 9-for-9 game against Northeastern St.

Luke Winn wrote an article (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state)for SI.com about Welty (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state), who should really shoot more often.

NW Mo State shoots a lot of threes. Last season, three-point attempts were 39.0% of their overall shots (last season, Duke's three attempts were 38.3% of our overall shots). They also make a lot, connecting on 41.3% of their three-attempts (Duke has never in its history topped 40%; our best season ever was 2013, when we made 39.9% of our three-attempts; last season we shot 38.9%).

And I don't think it's a matter of Welty being shy, it's just that last season he was a freshman playing only 18 mpg. Also, NW Missouri has lost two of its top three-point shooters (by volume), so there should be plenty of opportunity for Welty to light it up from outside. I'll be very interested to see if we can contain him from out there.

I'll also be interested in seeing how well we contain Pitts, who as defending Division II national POY, must be one one of those ultra-quick firebugs that have perennially given us fits.

I'm cribbing the following from my phase post:


For the ninth straight year, we're playing against the reigning Division II champion. This year it's Northwest Missouri State, a team that went 35-1 last season. They return five of their eight rotation players, including Division II national player of the year Justin Pitts, a 5'10" guard who averaged 20.9 ppg and 5.1 apg, and shot 39.2% from three-point range. I've never seen him play, but for a 5'10" guy to be national POY, he must be quick and savvy. So it should give us our first picture of how we deal with a quick opposing PG.

NW Mo St shot a lot of threes last season, though two of their top three gunners (by volume) are no longer on the team (the third being Pitts). They're also pretty small (by Division I standards, anyway), with nobody taller than 6'8" and only one player taller than 6'7" (junior Dray Starzl), and he hardly played last season. Their front line will primarily consist of 6'6" senior Chris-Ebou Ndow and 6'6" senior Brett Dougherty. They're both decent Division II players, but if our gigantic front line doesn't dominate these guys, then we'll have something to talk about. We'll also get to see how well our bigs can chase smaller guys around the perimeter.

Other than Pitts, the guy on NW Mo St. I'm most interested in watching is 6'7" sophomore guard Ryan Welty, who last season as a freshman playing 18 mpg attempted more than two threes per game, and made 66.7% (!!!) of them (52 for 78). It was such an accomplishment that Luke Winn wrote an article about him (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state).

I don't know anything about their freshmen, but NW Missouri State is a good, veteran Division II team, and the game should be entertaining. That said, I'll be surprised if the Bearcats hang around for more than a few minutes.

[Troublemaker]

I'm cribbing the following from my phase post:

Yikes. I should've checked your Phase post and quoted it -- we went over a lot of the same stuff about NWMoSt.


NW Mo State shoots a lot of threes. Last season, three-point attempts were 39.0% of their overall shots (last season, Duke's three attempts were 38.3% of our overall shots).

Yes, and as you noted post-CTC, Duke gave up a lot of 3-pt shots in the CTC scrimmage, which is not typical of Duke defenses. Blue Team and White Team combined to shoot 32 three-pointers in a half of play. (In comparison, last season, Blue and White combined to shoot 21 three-pointers). Watching the game, it seemed we were very aggressive in leaving shooters on the weakside. Did we scrimmage that way because that is how we expect opposing teams to guard us this season, or could this signal a bit of a change in defensive philosophy for this season? Let's see how aggressively we try to limit NW Mo St's three-point attempts.

[UrinalCake]

Sounds like it will be a great test to see how we can defend on the perimeter. Especially when we go to a 2- or even 3-big lineup. Can our bigs step out and defend smaller guys when needed?

[sagegrouse]

Sounds like it will be a great test to see how we can defend on the perimeter. Especially when we go to a 2- or even 3-big lineup. Can our bigs step out and defend smaller guys when needed?

If Northwest Missouri State doesn't go "all wobbly" on playing in Cameron, its experience and shooting could pose a problem for our young Blue Devils.

[ChillinDuke]

If Northwest Missouri State doesn't go "all wobbly" on playing in Cameron, its experience and shooting could pose a problem for our young Blue Devils.

A problem like a spilled carton of milk? Or a problem like a burst pipe on the top floor of your home? One is merely a slight inconvenience on an otherwise normal day. The other is a headache for weeks to come.

If NorthwestMost is anything more than milk on the Cameron floor, I'd be shocked. Wobbly or not.

Pitts may get his - heck we may even let him - but no one on NorthwestMost should be able to stop any of Bagley, Bolden, or Allen. At any point. And potentially add Carter into the mix if it weren't for this being his first game.

That is no disrespect at all to them. At all.

- Chillin

[sagegrouse]

A problem like a spilled carton of milk? Or a problem like a burst pipe on the top floor of your home? One is merely a slight inconvenience on an otherwise normal day. The other is a headache for weeks to come.

If NorthwestMost is anything more than milk on the Cameron floor, I'd be shocked. Wobbly or not.

Pitts may get his - heck we may even let him - but no one on NorthwestMost should be able to stop any of Bagley, Bolden, or Allen. At any point. And potentially add Carter into the mix if it weren't for this being his first game.

That is no disrespect at all to them. At all.

- Chillin

We have a bunch of freshmen -- who knows how they will play on their first outing? I always want the team to play well, but I am sure K will use a poor performance like Joshua Bell uses a violin.

The only thing I am sure of: if I tune in on my PC to WatchESPN, I will see every second (and more!) of the commercials but only about one-half of the game.

[richardjackson199]

If Northwest Missouri State doesn't go "all wobbly" on playing in Cameron, its experience and shooting could pose a problem for our young Blue Devils.

I agree with this. We look really talented, but don't underestimate our youth and inexperience. This will be a great test for our team before games like MSU (which will be a very different, big, athletic test).

We better not take NW Misouri State lightly. If we blow them out, I think it bodes well for a special year. I have found exhibition games to be more revealing than some. Teams who lose them usually struggle all year. Teams who win them by 50 usually dominate all year.

I have no idea what to expect, but I think it might tell us a lot. And we better come ready to play and defend like hell on the perimeter.

[UrinalCake]

I'm not worried about winning the game. In early season contests like this, the score is mostly irrelevant. I'm looking for how we approach individual matchups and certain types of lineups. If they play five small guys who can shoot the three, how will we defend that? Do we use a switching m2m? Do we let them take the open threes and just hope they miss and that we can get enough easy buckets on the other end to force them to make a chance? These sorts of things are indicative of what we'll do against "real" opponents.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with this. We look really talented, but don't underestimate our youth and inexperience. This will be a great test for our team before games like MSU (which will be a very different, big, athletic test).

We better not take NW Misouri State lightly. If we blow them out, I think it bodes well for a special year. I have found exhibition games to be more revealing than some. Teams who lose them usually struggle all year. Teams who win them by 50 usually dominate all year.

I have no idea what to expect, but I think it might tell us a lot. And we better come ready to play and defend like hell on the perimeter.

I hope NorthwestMOST plays well, but I don't want to see an analogous story to this one:


When is an exhibition game not just an exhibition game?

Five years ago in the Carrier Dome, we got our answer.

On Nov. 3, 2009, Le Moyne College beat Syracuse 82-79 in a game that will not be soon forgotten by either side. LeMoyne was the cross-town school that wasn't even very competitive in Division II.

[Kedsy]

We better not take NW Misouri State lightly. If we blow them out, I think it bodes well for a special year. I have found exhibition games to be more revealing than some. Teams who lose them usually struggle all year. Teams who win them by 50 usually dominate all year.

Your statements above are not necessarily accurate. To my knowledge, Duke has never lost one of these, but every so often you hear about a team losing one of these and those teams don't always struggle: for example, in 2009-10 Syracuse lost an exhibition game to a DII team (EDIT: as Sage noted above), but that Syracuse team went out and dominated the Big East (winning that very tough at the time conference by two full games) and got a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. On the other side, there are a lot of Division I teams who can beat a Division II team by 50 points and not "dominate all year."

As far as Duke goes, here are our exhibition margins of victory for the past nine years (when one game was against the Div II champs):



Year DII champ other NCAA finish
2017 54 31 32
2016 44 65 16
2015 40 57 1
2014 16 36 64
2013 18 24 8
2012 25 14 64
2011 21 73 16
2010 36 58 1


Here are our exhibition margins of victory for the five years before that:



Year first second NCAA finish
2009 64 53 16
2008 79 61 32
2007 51 29 64
2006 57 60 16
2005 51 37 16


First off, the only Duke team that beat a Division II champ by 50+ points was last year's team, which didn't dominate all year. And while it's true our 2012 and 2014 teams didn't perform as well as we would have liked against the defending DII champs, neither did the 2011 and 2013 teams, which both had pretty good seasons. And the Duke team over the past 14 seasons that manhandled its exhibition schedule most convincingly (2007-08) ended up losing in the Tournament 2nd round after winning their first round game by a single point and bowing out early in the ACC tournament.

Maybe you can say that if you struggle against a Division II team, your team has weaknesses that better teams might exploit, but really I think there's no convincing correlation between exhibition scoring margin and how well a team performs against the rest of its schedule.

[ChillinDuke]

I hope NorthwestMOST plays well, but I don't want to see an analogous story to this one:

LeMoyne was the cross-town school that wasn't even very competitive in Division II.

Well I certainly agree I hope NorthwestMOST plays well. And I certainly agree I don't want to see an analogous story.

But that Syracuse game appears to be a total anomaly, as Kedsy just posted about. For further background, Le Moyne was Cuse's 2nd exhibition game. They went out and beat Cal State - Los Angeles by 43 pts in their first exhibition. Then they lost to Le Moyne. Then Cuse proceeded to win every one of their remaining 2009 games by at least 7 pts, and all but one of them by double figures, which included wins over #13 Cal (by 22 pts), #6 UNC (by 16; BOOM!), and #10 Florida (by 12).

So objectively, that loss is totally bizarre. I'm certainly no Syracuse insider, but you have to wonder if Boeheim was trying to install some funky tweak to their defense or prove a point or stress the team out or something. Because in the one game immediately before Le Moyne and for the medium-term afterwards, Cuse was totally dominant.

- Chillin

[sagegrouse]

Well I certainly agree I hope NorthwestMOST plays well. And I certainly agree I don't want to see an analogous story.

But that Syracuse game appears to be a total anomaly, as Kedsy just posted about. For further background, Le Moyne was Cuse's 2nd exhibition game. They went out and beat Cal State - Los Angeles by 43 pts in their first exhibition. Then they lost to Le Moyne. Then Cuse proceeded to win every one of their remaining 2009 games by at least 7 pts, and all but one of them by double figures, which included wins over #13 Cal (by 22 pts), #6 UNC (by 16; BOOM!), and #10 Florida (by 12).

So objectively, that loss is totally bizarre. I'm certainly no Syracuse insider, but you have to wonder if Boeheim was trying to install some funky tweak to their defense or prove a point or stress the team out or something. Because in the one game immediately before Le Moyne and for the medium-term afterwards, Cuse was totally dominant.

- Chillin
I believe I read at the time that zone-oriented Syracuse decided to play man-to-man defense and stuck to it.

[BandAlum83]

We have a bunch of freshmen -- who knows how they will play on their first outing? I always want the team to play well, but I am sure K will use a poor performance like Joshua Bell uses a violin.

The only thing I am sure of: if I tune in on my PC to WatchESPN, I will see every second (and more!) of the commercials but only about one-half of the game.

I know, right?? why is that???

[sagegrouse]

I know, right?? why is that???

I dunno, but a few times I could hear the voice of the announcers calling game action while my screen was still showing one of the commercials.

[tbyers11]

I believe I read at the time that zone-oriented Syracuse decided to play man-to-man defense and stuck to it.

This is also my recollection. I believe Syracuse played almost exclusively man-to-man in 2009 when they lost the exhibition to Le Moyne.

This ESPN game story (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/news/story?id=4620949) mentions that the Cuse played m2m but doesn't point out that is an anomaly for Syracuse

[richardjackson199]

Your statements above are not necessarily accurate. To my knowledge, Duke has never lost one of these, but every so often you hear about a team losing one of these and those teams don't always struggle: for example, in 2009-10 Syracuse lost an exhibition game to a DII team (EDIT: as Sage noted above), but that Syracuse team went out and dominated the Big East (winning that very tough at the time conference by two full games) and got a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. On the other side, there are a lot of Division I teams who can beat a Division II team by 50 points and not "dominate all year."

As far as Duke goes, here are our exhibition margins of victory for the past nine years (when one game was against the Div II champs):



Year DII champ other NCAA finish
2017 54 31 32
2016 44 65 16
2015 40 57 1
2014 16 36 64
2013 18 24 8
2012 25 14 64
2011 21 73 16
2010 36 58 1


Here are our exhibition margins of victory for the five years before that:



Year first second NCAA finish
2009 64 53 16
2008 79 61 32
2007 51 29 64
2006 57 60 16
2005 51 37 16


First off, the only Duke team that beat a Division II champ by 50+ points was last year's team, which didn't dominate all year. And while it's true our 2012 and 2014 teams didn't perform as well as we would have liked against the defending DII champs, neither did the 2011 and 2013 teams, which both had pretty good seasons. And the Duke team over the past 14 seasons that manhandled its exhibition schedule most convincingly (2007-08) ended up losing in the Tournament 2nd round after winning their first round game by a single point and bowing out early in the ACC tournament.

Maybe you can say that if you struggle against a Division II team, your team has weaknesses that better teams might exploit, but really I think there's no convincing correlation between exhibition scoring margin and how well a team performs against the rest of its schedule.

I'd spork this if I could. Thanks for analyzing that - excellent as always.

My eye test selective memory failed me. I was wrong, but worth it to see these results. :D

[MrPoon]

If played on Duke's terms, the issue will by its size and speed.
Remember some of the early games last year and our rebounding? This year will have even better rebounding ability.
Plus, Duval's speed will be interesting to watch with the step down in athleticism if what the stereotype (DII teams) leads me to assume. Carter, Bag III, Duval, GA. That is a load!
But a good chance to practice D. Especially against the perimeter.

Should be fun!

[BD80]

NWMST point guard is Justin Pitts, who last year won the Bevo Francis award, given to the most outstanding player in all small college basketball. ...

I thought the Bevo award came in a 6-pack.


This is also my recollection. I believe Syracuse played almost exclusively man-to-man in 2009 when they lost the exhibition to Le Moyne.

This ESPN game story (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/news/story?id=4620949) mentions that the Cuse played m2m but doesn't point out that is an anomaly for Syracuse

Nor did it point out that water is wet.

[Dukehky]

Just as a prediction. I would not be shocked if Carter is our second leading scorer this year. Have fun, team. Don't get hurt.

[BandAlum83]

Just as a prediction. I would not be shocked if Carter is our second leading scorer this year. Have fun, team. Don't get hurt.

lol...so is that a prediction, or just sayin' you wouldn't be surprised?

[Troublemaker]

Coach K mentioned in the post-CTC presser that we haven't really seen the real Duke team yet because we want to press on defense and you can't really do that in an intrasquad scrimmage due to lack of subs. I'm excited to see what our press will look like with the boost of length and athleticism that we have this season. Are we going to use Javin and Marvin at the "point" of the press (like we sometimes used Amile), and how disruptive will they be? How NWMoSt handles Duke's press will go a long way towards determining whether this game is competitive. If they can break our press for open threes (and hit them), they can hang in there.


I'm not worried about winning the game. In early season contests like this, the score is mostly irrelevant. I'm looking for how we approach individual matchups and certain types of lineups. If they play five small guys who can shoot the three, how will we defend that? Do we use a switching m2m? Do we let them take the open threes and just hope they miss and that we can get enough easy buckets on the other end to force them to make a chance? These sorts of things are indicative of what we'll do against "real" opponents.

We'll likely switch any pick-n-roll that is set by a good shooting "big" (keeping in mind NWMoSt's bigs are like 6'7", 6'6"). I think we'll definitely see Marvin & Javin and maybe even Wendell & Marques get a shot at guarding Justin Pitts after switches.

[Dukehky]

lol...so is that a prediction, or just sayin' you wouldn't be surprised?

Now that is a fair point. Hedging bets.

[English]

Now that is a fair point. Hedging bets.

So you're saying that Carter Jr., arguably, could be the second leading scorer?

[English]

Coach K mentioned in the post-CTC presser that we haven't really seen the real Duke team yet because we want to press on defense and you can't really do that in an intrasquad scrimmage due to lack of subs. I'm excited to see what our press will look like with the boost of length and athleticism that we have this season. Are we going to use Javin and Marvin at the "point" of the press (like we sometimes used Amile), and how disruptive will they be? How NWMoSt handles Duke's press will go a long way towards determining whether this game is competitive. If they can break our press for open threes (and hit them), they can hang in there.



We'll likely switch any pick-n-roll that is set by a good shooting "big" (keeping in mind NWMoSt's bigs are like 6'7", 6'6"). I think we'll definitely see Marvin & Javin and maybe even Wendell & Marques get a shot at guarding Justin Pitts after switches.

The bolded is pretty funny in its slap-you-in-the-face obviousness...we also haven't seen the real Duke team play because, um, half the players were on the other team.

[MChambers]

Coach K mentioned in the post-CTC presser that we haven't really seen the real Duke team yet because we want to press on defense and you can't really do that in an intrasquad scrimmage due to lack of subs. I'm excited to see what our press will look like with the boost of length and athleticism that we have this season. Are we going to use Javin and Marvin at the "point" of the press (like we sometimes used Amile), and how disruptive will they be? How NWMoSt handles Duke's press will go a long way towards determining whether this game is competitive. If they can break our press for open threes (and hit them), they can hang in there.

Color me skeptical. Coach K often talks up the full court press in the preseason, but it’s usually not used a lot after December. The last Duke team I can remember using the full court press as a defensive staple was the 1999 team. Now, it’s possible I am wrong (if extremely unlikely), and I would welcome contrary views and memories.

[Troublemaker]

Color me skeptical. Coach K often talks up the full court press in the preseason, but it’s usually not used a lot after December. The last Duke team I can remember using the full court press as a defensive staple was the 1999 team. Now, it’s possible I am wrong (if extremely unlikely), and I would welcome contrary views and memories.

We used a 3/4 court zone press extensively in 2015, including in the tournament. Not every possession, but many possessions. My sense is if we stay healthy, we'll be pressing a lot this season.

[arnie]

We used a 3/4 court zone press extensively in 2015, including in the tournament. Not every possession, but many possessions. My sense is if we stay healthy, we'll be pressing a lot this season.

Would love to see it, but hard to do game in game out with a 6.5 man rotation.

[OldPhiKap]

Color me skeptical. Coach K often talks up the full court press in the preseason, but it’s usually not used a lot after December. The last Duke team I can remember using the full court press as a defensive staple was the 1999 team. Now, it’s possible I am wrong (if extremely unlikely), and I would welcome contrary views and memories.

I decline for two reasons. First, I get a nice hourly rate for providing contrary positions and I’ve hit my pro bono target for the year.

Second, I agree. Especially with a group of freshmen whose communication skills are likely not where K wants them. But if we really are gonna play a big team this year, m2m is perhaps less optimal than zone or press. Long arms in those defenses are a bonus; Long arms in m2m are magnets for reaching fouls.

[Dukehky]

So you're saying that Carter Jr., arguably, could be the second leading scorer?

That's the one.

[MChambers]

I decline for two reasons. First, I get a nice hourly rate for providing contrary positions and I’ve hit my pro bono target for the year.
No contrary positions here until January? Whatever will you do?

[OldPhiKap]

No contrary positions here until January? Whatever will you do?

Get a sponsor, obviously.





{this post is brought to you by the American Bran Grower’s Association. Bran — for regular people like you.}

[MChambers]

Get a sponsor, obviously.

Not at lawyer rates!

[MChambers]

We used a 3/4 court zone press extensively in 2015, including in the tournament. Not every possession, but many possessions. My sense is if we stay healthy, we'll be pressing a lot this season.
Thanks for the reminder! I’ll concede that Duke has sometimes used a 3/4 zone press effectively. I don’t remember many effective full court presses.

[Listen to Quants]

Thanks for the reminder! I’ll concede that Duke has sometimes used a 3/4 zone press effectively. I don’t remember many effective full court presses.
Yeah. Not in the one and done era. It seems to require lots of practice/experience. Too bad really as the old Coach K (and by that I mean the young Coach K) used it so well.

This year's team, given the 'lots of practice' would seem beautiful as a pressing team with long athletes and rim protection, both.

[OldPhiKap]

Not at lawyer rates!

I'm looking to get on with Adidas. I'm told they have some openings.




{this post is brought to you by the American Tapeworm-Grower's Association. Come hungry, stay hungry. Tapeworms.}

[BandAlum83]

Get a sponsor, obviously.





{this post is brought to you by the American Bran Grower’s Association. Bran — for regular people like you.}

Byrd Campbell might be interested. They are former Duke roommates ('78 I think), I hear. And now are partners in their very own law firm who, reportedly, like to sponsor Duke-related things .

Contact them out at ByrdCampbell.com

;)

[English]

Yeah. Not in the one and done era. It seems to require lots of practice/experience. Too bad really as the old Coach K (and by that I mean the young Coach K) used it so well.

This year's team, given the 'lots of practice' would seem beautiful as a pressing team with long athletes and rim protection, both.

Or, perhaps, also not in the new "hand checking, freedom of movement rules" era. The two happened around the same time and could reasonably be used to explain the drop in effective pressure M2M defense or full court press, at least WRT Duke.

Although, even as I'm typing this, I recall the 2013 UofL team that beat us in the E8 (subsequent to one of the most horrific sports injuries I've ever seen live) was an adept press team...and they had oodles of experience and athleticism. Still, arguments could be reasonably made.

[arydolphin]

For what it's worth, Coach K was interviewed on Sportscenter this morning and said the starting lineup will be 4 freshman (would assume Duval, Trent Jr., Carter Jr. and Bagley) along with Grayson Allen.

[BandAlum83]

Or, perhaps, also not in the new "hand checking, freedom of movement rules" era. The two happened around the same time and could reasonably be used to explain the drop in effective pressure M2M defense or full court press, at least WRT Duke.

Although, even as I'm typing this, I recall the 2013 UofL team that beat us in the E8 (subsequent to one of the most horrific sports injuries I've ever seen live) was an adept press team...and they had oodles of experience and athleticism. Still, arguments could be reasonably made.

IIRC, that team simply fouled and kept fouling until the refs simply swallowed their whistles.

[devildeac]

IIRC, that team simply fouled and kept fouling until the refs simply swallowed their whistles.

Still is the MO of every Pitino coached team. Oh, wait...

[-jk]

IIRC, that team simply fouled and kept fouling until the refs simply swallowed their whistles.

I miss flowy hoops!

-jk

[DukieInBrasil]

Welty is apparently an incredible shooter. Welty -- and this is not a misprint -- hit 52 of 78 three-point attempts (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/plyr_24.htm) for 66.7%, including a 9-for-9 game against Northeastern St.

Luke Winn wrote an article (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state)for SI.com about Welty (https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/05/03/ryan-welty-three-point-shooting-northwest-missouri-state), who should really shoot more often.

that's a 100% eFG%, that's pretty amazing.

[Kedsy]

that's a 100% eFG%, that's pretty amazing.

He was 8 for 16 from 2-point range, so you're right, his overall eFG% was 100%. His true shooting percentage was a bit lower, though, since he only shot 32 for 42 from the free throw line.

[subzero02]

I'm not worried about winning the game. In early season contests like this, the score is mostly irrelevant. I'm looking for how we approach individual matchups and certain types of lineups. If they play five small guys who can shoot the three, how will we defend that? Do we use a switching m2m? Do we let them take the open threes and just hope they miss and that we can get enough easy buckets on the other end to force them to make a chance? These sorts of things are indicative of what we'll do against "real" opponents.



You play... to win... the game

[SkyBrickey]

It's game day - let's bump this back to the top.

Most excited to see how Duval runs the team today. Is he poised? Is he able to break down the defense at will and find the open man? Is he a stopper at the point of the spear on defense? I've always felt like his play this year will be the biggest factor in whether we're hanging another banner. Ready to see him in action against someone other than Goldwire.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I'll keep bumping the DUKE basketball discussion to the top. Very excited for today's game against a team besides DUKE. I'm yet to see any video footage of Duval running with the starters, so I'm really looking forward to see how he meshes with Grayson and the bigs tonight. I'll also be really interested to see how we are with defensive positioning and technique. I won't expect a ton of defensive effort (although it would be nice to see) because it's still an exhibition game. Another player I'm really interested to see in real game action is Marques Bolden. What exactly will be his value to this team? How many minutes can he play and be effective? Can he play without fouling? Will he be a dominant rebounder? Has he developed any consistent low post moves? Lots of youngsters, and a ton of potential out there. Lets see what we can do, and absolutely NO injuries! GO DEVILS!

[Troublemaker]

I won't expect a ton of defensive effort (although it would be nice to see) because it's still an exhibition game.

Oh, I expect to see a ton of defensive effort. We usually take these exhibitions games seriously (as we should), and furthermore, Coach K has said several times this offseason that he expects Duke to be a very good defensive and rebounding team, based on the talent on the roster. This game is our first chance to start to build that identity in games against an opposing team.

[BandAlum83]

It's nice that we can see this game through live stream, but as much as I've turned Mrs. BandAlum83's blood to Duke Blue, watching meaningless pre-season scrimmages are just not high on her list of Friday Evening activities. This is typically the time/day that we are at our favorite Mexican restaurant and she has a frozen margarita in front of her.

Does anyone know if this is something that will be available in an on-demand way after the fact? Youtube, ACC network, ESPN3, anything???

[tbyers11]

It's nice that we can see this game through live stream, but as much as I've turned Mrs. BandAlum83's blood to Duke Blue, watching meaningless pre-season scrimmages are just not high on her list of Friday Evening activities. This is typically the time/day that we are at our favorite Mexican restaurant and she has a frozen margarita in front of her.

Does anyone know if this is something that will be available in an on-demand way after the fact? Youtube, ACC network, ESPN3, anything???

If the live stream is on WatchESPN, it it typically available for replay about an hour or 2 after the live broadcast finishes

[Billy Dat]

Does anyone know if this is something that will be available in an on-demand way after the fact? Youtube, ACC network, ESPN3, anything???

If it's on WatchESPN, they usually archive that stuff. I watched Countdown to Craziness the afternoon after it aired. I wouldn't wait too long to watch it in case they pull it within 48 hours or so.

[MarkD83]

and why on game day are there two threads about that "school" who does not care about academics above this thread.......

[BandAlum83]

If it's on WatchESPN, they usually archive that stuff. I watched Countdown to Craziness the afternoon after it aired. I wouldn't wait too long to watch it in case they pull it within 48 hours or so.

Thanks to you and Tbyers11 for the response! I know what I'll be doing around 11:00pm tonight :)

[chriso]

I'm so excited. I find I can barely hold still or keep a thought in my head. I guess it's the excitement only a free man can feel. :)

[Kedsy]

Another player I'm really interested to see in real game action is Marques Bolden. What exactly will be his value to this team? How many minutes can he play and be effective? Can he play without fouling? Will he be a dominant rebounder? Has he developed any consistent low post moves?

Don't forget, the guy guarding Marques will be 6'7". I'm not sure how much legitimate information we'll get about his game (or Wendell's, or Marvin's) tonight.

[Troublemaker]

It's game day - let's bump this back to the top.

Most excited to see how Duval runs the team today. Is he poised?

Yeah for me, it's a tie between Duval and also seeing how effective Duke's press is and what form(s) it takes.

With Trevon, I'm looking for him to post at least a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio against the overmatched Div II champs.

With the press, I want to see how we deploy all the length and athleticism we have. Are we going to pressure the in-bounds? Or do we fall into the 3/4-court zone press that we've used with success in recent years? Where's Javin located in all this? Where's Marvin located?

[COYS]

Or, perhaps, also not in the new "hand checking, freedom of movement rules" era. The two happened around the same time and could reasonably be used to explain the drop in effective pressure M2M defense or full court press, at least WRT Duke.

Although, even as I'm typing this, I recall the 2013 UofL team that beat us in the E8 (subsequent to one of the most horrific sports injuries I've ever seen live) was an adept press team...and they had oodles of experience and athleticism. Still, arguments could be reasonably made.

THe debates the quality of our defense in recent years usually center around OAD vs injuries, but this is an excellent and often overlooked point. Duke used to be able to pressure and handcheck on the perimeter. It’s one of the big reasons our undersized 2008 team was so excellent on D. We did a good job denying entry passes to the post from the perimeter and could also use our physicality to force driving guards to take an extra step while getting into the paint, which was enough time for help defenders to rotate, etc. we also forced higher turnover rates. We haven’t forced turnovers at high rates since these rule changes. I think there is probably a pretty strong causal relationship, even if we can’t prove it exactly.

[MrPoon]

I am looking forward to this game immensely, if only because its the first time to see this team and its structure. No more cinderblocks or minute arguments in a vacuums (we'll still do it, just with some substance). Others do summaries so much better, these are just my questions.

A few questions in my mind:
1) Duval as the PG the team has needed since Tyus left early. Can he make the game easy for shooters and the bigs? Can he get his points efficiently (shot selection)? Can he harness that amazing athleticism while managing turnovers?
2) Bolden. How does he fit. K said on ESPN we are starting 4 freshman, which means Bolden comes off the bench. How does he fit as a sixth man? Does it impact his offensive confidence? Will his size help in a game like this with DII players or will they pull him out and negate the size advantage? Can he adjust? What other big does he play most effectively?
3) Trent Jr. I loved his swagger and confidence in the blue white game. Does it translate? Can he continue to make the most of the open shots this team should be able to manufacture for him? Rumors persist about the his mixed shooting. Does it show up in a "real" game? Does he bring defense to the wings, which we'll need but also rebounding. This team should be GREAT at rebounding but I think teams will look to shoot from the perimeter because of Duke's size. I think that leave GA and Trent as important rebounders too.
4) Spacing. Can our strength inside avoid clogging the lane? GA drives, Duval drives. Is there room for everyone?
5) 3PT shooting. Do we have enough to space the floor? In the scrimmage, everyone seemed to have the green light, even Bolden, is that permanent? Carter and Bags look capable but is that our best, most efficient use of our assets?
6) D - to zone or not to zone?

Probably a lot more but we start to get answers tonight.
** I am assuming things like Bagley III will be a beast, GA will score in spurts that will bring opposing coaches to their knees and Carter will play a quiet game that suddenly has 12 pts 8 rebounds and 2 assists. I hold these three is so high regard, I don't have questions just anticipation! :)

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah for me, it's a tie between Duval and also seeing how effective Duke's press is and what form(s) it takes.

With Trevon, I'm looking for him to post at least a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio against the overmatched Div II champs.

With the press, I want to see how we deploy all the length and athleticism we have. Are we going to pressure the in-bounds? Or do we fall into the 3/4-court zone press that we've used with success in recent years? Where's Javin located in all this? Where's Marvin located?

I wonder if the Div II champs will be that overmatched on the perimeter? Obviously they will be inside.

[Billy Dat]

I'm so excited. I find I can barely hold still or keep a thought in my head. I guess it's the excitement only a free man can feel. :)

Zihuatanejo!

[COYS]

Yeah for me, it's a tie between Duval and also seeing how effective Duke's press is and what form(s) it takes.

With Trevon, I'm looking for him to post at least a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio against the overmatched Div II champs.

With the press, I want to see how we deploy all the length and athleticism we have. Are we going to pressure the in-bounds? Or do we fall into the 3/4-court zone press that we've used with success in recent years? Where's Javin located in all this? Where's Marvin located?

I’m curious about our defense, too. I’m on record as an advocate for a more compact defense where our overwhelming length, height, and athleticism can make it virtually impossible to complete passes inside the paint. However, he combination of a 3/4 court press to eat up 7-8 seconds of shot clock before dropping back into a compact defense really interests me.

It’s all probably wishful thinking on my part though, as I suspect that K will have us apply pressure today if for no other reason than to practice it in a game situation. We’ll find out soon enough.

[OldPhiKap]

and why on game day are there two threads about that "school" who does not care about academics above this thread...

Because one of them wasn’t locked like it should have been. Expect it to be on the front page all season and post-season.

But it would be nice if folks stopped feeding the troll.

[dukebluesincebirth]

and why on game day are there two threads about that "school" who does not care about academics above this thread....

Same thing I was thinking earlier when I bumped this one back up... I guess some posters would rather discuss other teams. I'm choosing to only focus on Duke, and I wish all here could unite in this idea rather than feeding trolls, but nothing we can do about it now that mods have allowed it. Oh well. Tonight is the start of a great journey for this Blue Devil team. Let us be blessed with no major injuries, and a great start to the season! GO DEVILS.

[ChillinDuke]

I would say that there's not much to learn in this one.

But then I think about it, and there's SO MUCH TO LEARN!!!

I'm giddy that hoops is back.

While I won't put a ton of stock into whatever it is that we see tonight, I will be focusing on our (1) defensive intensity and scheme, (2) press? or lack thereof?, and (3) shooting. I'm not as interested in Trevon in this one as I think it will take a higher quality opponent and an actual game that counts to start seeing where he is stacking up. But I'll still be watching him - lol.

- Chillin

[dukelion]

I'm really interested to see who the first wing/guard is off the bench. Based on CTC I'd say O'Connell but White, Tucker and even Goldwire are all options at this point.

Or maybe the use Bagely and DeLuarier at the 3 and just keep the lineup big. That would explain all the threes Javin has been attempting in the scrimmages.

We'll see soon enough.

[left_hook_lacey]

I hope NorthwestMOST plays well, but I don't want to see an analogous story to this one:

LeMoyne was the cross-town school that wasn't even very competitive in Division II.

And don't forget this one.

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap?gameId=300040232

[left_hook_lacey]

So, unlike most of the Division II champs we've played in recent years, NW Mo St is NOT rebuilding after significant defections.

Far from it. This was a dominant champion (35-1 record) that returns their two leading scorers, including star point guard Justin Pitts. Of the 6 players that started a significant amount of games for NW Mo St, the Bearcats return 4 of them. And overall, they return 5 of their 8-man rotation.

Last season's NWMoSt statistics (http://bearcatsports.com/custompages/stats/mbb/2016-17/teamcume.htm)

This season's NWMoSt roster (http://bearcatsports.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball)

Anyway, put your pre-game, in-game, and probably post-game thoughts in here.

Duke by 35

[El_Diablo]

Game day...let's go, Duke!

[MrPoon]

Not directly tied to this game but any one know when the AP top 25 comes out? I was wondering if these preseason games could impact the vote. I know, I know, who cares, they shouldn't start voting until the season is half over because polling creates a bias to the already ranked teams... but its fun when you think you'll be #1!
:D

[ElSid]

Giddy like a school girl, as usual, even for a D2 exhibition game. Walking around singing xmas songs to myself: "It's the most wonderful time of the year!" Go Duke!

[mgtr]

I agree with the concerns and optimism expressed in the earlier posts. However, Duke has had difficulty with good, penetrating point guards before, and that is one areas in which this opponent excels. I will be watching to see how well we can shut that down. Go Duke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Don't forget, the guy guarding Marques will be 6'7". I'm not sure how much legitimate information we'll get about his game (or Wendell's, or Marvin's) tonight.

But fair to say that if Marques struggles, that is indicative of something else?

[Lar77]

The exhibition games give me an opportunity to see the bench guys and where they may contribute in the future. And see how the starters (especially with 4 freshmen) are committed to team concepts, like help defense. These guys were all alpha dogs in their previous careers.

I also want to see how Grayson leads and who else will be a leader.

No question that we will dominate absent a 3 point barrage like we've never seen (although Kedsy pointed out one guy who might do just that).

[Kedsy]

But fair to say that if Marques struggles, that is indicative of something else?

I was going to say something along these lines in my earlier post, but I think it depends on how he struggles (if he does). If it's because he's chasing a 6'6" three-point shooter around the gym, then it might not mean much. If he can't physically dominate these guys inside, or can't rebound at will, then it might tell us something negative. I can't think of anything that could happen that would tell us something positive, other than "at least it wasn't negative."

[BandAlum83]

Will there be exhibition game game-chat? Even we need to get into game shape. I can let it run and read after since I'll be at dinner.

[NYBri]

I love the smell of Duke Basketball in October. :cool:

[flyingdutchdevil]

I was going to say something along these lines in my earlier post, but I think it depends on how he struggles (if he does). If it's because he's chasing a 6'6" three-point shooter around the gym, then it might not mean much. If he can't physically dominate these guys inside, or can't rebound at will, then it might tell us something negative. I can't think of anything that could happen that would tell us something positive, other than "at least it wasn't negative."

This is what I'm hoping for. I agree with your post and I'm looking for Marques to have a solid game and make smart choices. Like you said, if he's chasing arond a 6'7" C with 3pt range, I won't fault Marques. But if he gets blocked by his man or outrebounded, I will not take that as a good sign...

[MChambers]

I agree with the concerns and optimism expressed in the earlier posts. However, Duke has had difficulty with good, penetrating point guards before, and that is one areas in which this opponent excels. I will be watching to see how well we can shut that down. Go Duke!

Certainly is an annual concern. In this game, though, Duke may extend the pressure and give up some penetration, if we also get turnovers, or force a smaller team to shoot over our trees along the front line.

[LasVegas]

Duval
Allen
Trent
Tucker
Delaurier

Starting 5. Odd.

[Nrrrrvous]

Duval
Allen
Trent
Tucker
Delaurier

Starting 5. Odd.

Where did that come from?

[Native]

Duval
Allen
Trent
Tucker
Delaurier

Starting 5. Odd.

The heck? Maybe K wants to tinker with the rotations a bit?

[LasVegas]

Where did that come from?

Twitter. From the media at the game. Adam Rowe. The devils den.

[Nrrrrvous]

Twitter. From the media at the game. Adam Rowe. The devils den.

Ah, one of these days I'll have to start twittering...

[Nrrrrvous]

The heck? Maybe K wants to tinker with the rotations a bit?

Maybe an early message to the bigs? Maybe shrinking to match his opponent? Maybe we are going to read way too much into this??

[riverside6]

Live tempo based stats for Duke/NW Missouri State, starters posted

https://www.scacchoops.com/nw-missouri-state-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-10272017-7-pm

[InSpades]

Duke Basketball twitter says no starting lineup has been announced and Adam Rowe seems to be questioning it as well... I would expect to see something more expected!

[chriso]

If true it's probably going small and those 2 had a great week of practice. Can you imaging seeing Bolden, Bagley and Carter at the scorer's table waiting to check in? Yikes. :)

[LasVegas]

Normal starters for duke. Weird. Someone jumped the gun.

[duke4ever19]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-cbOl96RFM

[Duke95]

Gary "Buckets" Trent

[DukieInBrasil]

Trent Jr. seems to like that side step back jumper, he's hit for 3-3 FGs so far.
ed: Bolden has not looked good so far. He passed out for a 3, which was a fine play, although he probably should try to power thru smaller guys. Then he got stripped by a smaller guy.

[-jk]

Forgot to post: DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox)!

-jk

[Native]

OK, I'm going to do it. I'm going to completely overreact.

I'm founding the Javin Delaurier Fan Club. Join now while there's room.

[rsvman]

A lot of turnovers, but I suppose first game freshman jitters are to be expected.
Trent is really good. Carter, too. Bagley has got to me much better than what he's shown so far, that much is sure.

[duke4ever19]

OK, I'm going to do it. I'm going to completely overreact.

I'm founding the Javin Delaurier Fan Club. Join now while there's room.

Javin "The Human Pogo Stick" DeLaurier.

He's really impressing me.

[Selover]

Javin "The Human Pogo Stick" DeLaurier.

He's really impressing me.

Right after I read this he hit a contested 3. Big fan here!

[Doria]

OK, I'm going to do it. I'm going to completely overreact.

I'm founding the Javin Delaurier Fan Club. Join now while there's room.

Sign me up!

[Bob Green]

Freshmen Wendell Carter, Jr and Gary Trent, Jr were as good as advertised during the 1st half. Not a surprise that Grayson Allen is leading the team in both points scored and minutes played.

[lotusland]

I like the zone D for this team. Hard to conclude too much with the tremendous size advantage but looks like the bigs won't get caught out of position away from the basket and will be able to protect the rim and rebound missed shots. Also like how they are playing fast. Hopefully they'll get crisper on the break and generate a lot of easy scores.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Thanks for the updates guys. I bought my dream house out in the country in June. Unfortunately we are in the future plans for Suddenlink high speed internet. Maybe next year I can watch these interweb games.

[olddevil]

Freshmen Wendell Carter, Jr and Gary Trent, Jr were as good as advertised during the 1st half. Not a surprise that Grayson Allen is leading the team in both points scored and minutes played.

What is the score?

[Native]

What is the score?

Duke 68, NWMSU 36. 15:30 left.

[olddevil]

Duke 68, NWMSU 36. 15:30 left.

Many thanks! I am too old to figure out how to watch it.

[-jk]

Get stats and score here: https://www.scacchoops.com/nw-missouri-state-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-10272017-7-pm

-jk

[kAzE]

OK, I'm going to do it. I'm going to completely overreact.

I'm founding the Javin Delaurier Fan Club. Join now while there's room.

You can’t found a club that I started months ago ;)

But welcome aboard, there’s room on this train for everyone.

[Native]

Justin Robinson! Have a day, young man!

[lotusland]

JRob picked up 4 quick points and an assist!

[Wahoo2000]

Thanks for the updates guys. I bought my dream house out in the country in June. Unfortunately we are in the future plans for Suddenlink high speed internet. Maybe next year I can watch these interweb games.

Have a friend in a similar situation. What you'll need:
Cell with good speed LTE(at least 5mb down, but hopefully more like 10+ - you can check it by turning off wifi on your phone and googling "speed test"), and a laptop (could technically use a desktop, though portability may be an issue).

1) Set up tethering on your phone (usually in settings)
2) Connect laptop to phone's tethered internet network and stream game on laptop
3) Use an HDMI cable to connect laptop to TV to watch in HD.

BOOM. Easy streaming to TV at home even if you don't have a good broadband service available.
**just make sure you have enough data in your monthly allowance to cover it - FYI, 1GB = @1hr of HD streaming**

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Where is Tucker?

[lotusland]

Jack handling the PG duties in garbage time

[brlftz]

What’s the deal with Tucker?