Top Movies of Winter 2017

[JasonEvans]

I'm going to post the Winter poll very soon but I wanted to ask a question first.

Like always, the contest will start with the first movies of November (Thor: Ragnarok). My question is, when should we end it? Sometimes we say it ends with movies released in January, but last year we allowed films through the middle of February so we could include a couple strong contenders in that month (Fifty Shades 2 and Lego Batman). Early February again gives us a couple contenders this year with Cloverfield 3, Fifty Shades 3, and Black Panther. Plus, January seems kinda weak with contenders (The Post is the only film I would consider that month).

So, I am thinking I will include Mid-Feb films in the contest. Any other opinions?

-Jason "feel free to PM me or post your response here" Evans

[wilson]

I'm going to post the Winter poll very soon but I wanted to ask a question first.

Like always, the contest will start with the first movies of November (Thor: Ragnarok). My question is, when should we end it? Sometimes we say it ends with movies released in January, but last year we allowed films through the middle of February so we could include a couple strong contenders in that month (Fifty Shades 2 and Lego Batman). Early February again gives us a couple contenders this year with Cloverfield 3, Fifty Shades 3, and Black Panther. Plus, January seems kinda weak with contenders (The Post is the only film I would consider that month).

So, I am thinking I will include Mid-Feb films in the contest. Any other opinions?

-Jason "feel free to PM me or post your response here" EvansI will vote and lose either way.

[bjornolf]

I say include early February. Winter doesn't end until March, right?

[brevity]

Death Wish has been pushed to March (http://variety.com/2017/film/news/death-wish-reboot-bruce-willis-release-date-moved-1202581949/). Here is a list of wide releases by month:

11/01 A Bad Moms Christmas
11/03 Thor: Ragnarok
11/10 Daddy's Home 2
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express
11/17 Justice League
11/17 The Star
11/17 Wonder
11/23 Chappaquiddick
11/23 Coco
11/23 Molly's Game
11/23 Polaroid

12/08 Just Getting Started
12/15 Ferdinand
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12/22 Downsizing
12/22 Father Figures
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3
12/27 The Greatest Showman

01/05 Insidious: The Last Key
01/12 The Commuter
01/12 Paddington 2
01/12 Proud Mary
01/19 Den of Thieves
01/19 Horse Soldiers
01/26 Extinction
01/26 Forever My Girl
01/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure
01/26 White Boy Rick

02/02 [Untitled Cloverfield Sequel]
02/09 Fifty Shades Freed
02/09 The Hurricane Heist
02/09 Peter Rabbit
02/16 Black Panther
02/16 Early Man
02/16 Samson
02/23 Annihilation
02/23 The War with Grandpa
02/23 Winchester

I see at least 12 solid poll choices in November and December, and maybe another 6 in January and February. You could go either way: a tight 2-month contest with no Field option, or a sprawling 4-month contest with a Field option (like last summer).

[El_Diablo]

So, I am thinking I will include Mid-Feb films in the contest.

Sounds good to me.

[LasVegas]

3 of these films look like absolute locks to me.

[JasonEvans]

Here is a list of wide releases by month:

11/01 A Bad Moms Christmas
11/03 Thor: Ragnarok
11/10 Daddy's Home 2
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express
11/17 Justice League
11/17 The Star
11/17 Wonder
11/23 Chappaquiddick
11/23 Coco
11/23 Molly's Game
11/23 Polaroid

12/08 Just Getting Started
12/15 Ferdinand
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12/22 Downsizing
12/22 Father Figures
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3
12/27 The Greatest Showman

01/05 Insidious: The Last Key
01/12 The Commuter
01/12 Paddington 2
01/12 Proud Mary
01/19 Den of Thieves
01/19 Horse Soldiers
01/26 Extinction
01/26 Forever My Girl
01/26 Maze Runner: The Death Cure
01/26 White Boy Rick

02/02 [Untitled Cloverfield Sequel]
02/09 Fifty Shades Freed
02/09 The Hurricane Heist
02/09 Peter Rabbit
02/16 Black Panther
02/16 Early Man
02/16 Samson
02/23 Annihilation
02/23 The War with Grandpa
02/23 Winchester

I see at least 12 solid poll choices in November and December, and maybe another 6 in January and February. You could go either way: a tight 2-month contest with no Field option, or a sprawling 4-month contest with a Field option (like last summer).

Good research and a good list, but you left a few out.

11/17 Roman J. Israel Esq. which stars Denzel Washington (limited release on 11/3 with wide release on 11/17)
11/24 The Current War is supposed to start with a limited release, but will certainly go wide at some point. Some Oscar buzz on this film.
12/8 All The Money in the World with Mark Whalberg, Kevin Spacey, and directed by Ridley Scott. It is the story of the kidnapping of J Paul Getty III.
12/8 The Shape of Water from Guillermo del Toro, a fantasy film that is getting a lot of Oscar buzz and it being called del Toro's best film since Pan Labyrinth
12/8 The Disaster Artist with Dave Franco, Seth Rogen, Zac Effron, and directed by James Franco. It starts out limited but goes wide on 12/8.
1/12 The Post with Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep and directed by Stephen Spielberg (ummm, WOW!!) gets a wide release after a limited run to qualify for the Oscars
2/16 Show Dogs which features the voices of Ludacris, Stanley Tucci, Alan Cumming, Gabriel Iglesias, and Shaquille O’Neal as the dogs. 'Nuf said.

Oh, and the Untitled Cloverfield Sequel is supposedly going to the called The God Particle.

-Jason "I think The Post has a non-zero chance of being a contender in our contest" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ok, so I have opened the poll for the winter contest. It will end in 18 days, so your picks must be in a week before the first films open.

Here are the films, sorted by release date:
11/01 A Bad Moms Christmas
11/03 Thor: Ragnarok
11/10 Daddy's Home 2
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express
11/17 Justice League
11/23 Coco
12/15 Ferdinand
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12/22 Downsizing
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3
02/16 Black Panther

Worth noting, I tried to limit the number of named films to make the field seem more attractive. There are some really good films in the field including The Post, The Greatest Showman, Molly's Game, Fifty Shades 3, Cloverfield 3, and several others.

-Jason "vote away and, as alwsys, post your picks so we can discuss them" Evans

[PackMan97]

There are some really good films in the field including ... Fifty Shades 3

Did you just call Fifty Shades 3 a really good film?

[YmoBeThere]

I think this is a case of first mover disadvantage...

[stevoflurane]

I know Ready Player One is coming out in March. I’m personally very excited for that film, but was wondering if it’s too late for this poll or if you don’t think it will be that big of a money maker to put it on the poll.

Wondering if anyone had any opinions about this one.

[JasonEvans]

I think this is a case of first mover disadvantage...

Can you clarify what you mean by this comment?

[left_hook_lacey]

I'm going to post the Winter poll very soon but I wanted to ask a question first.

Like always, the contest will start with the first movies of November (Thor: Ragnarok). My question is, when should we end it? Sometimes we say it ends with movies released in January, but last year we allowed films through the middle of February so we could include a couple strong contenders in that month (Fifty Shades 2 and Lego Batman). Early February again gives us a couple contenders this year with Cloverfield 3, Fifty Shades 3, and Black Panther. Plus, January seems kinda weak with contenders (The Post is the only film I would consider that month).

So, I am thinking I will include Mid-Feb films in the contest. Any other opinions?

-Jason "feel free to PM me or post your response here" Evans

How did I miss Cloverfield 2? I really enjoyed the first one, but had no idea there was a 2nd and about to be a 3rd.

[JasonEvans]

I know Ready Player One is coming out in March. I’m personally very excited for that film, but was wondering if it’s too late for this poll or if you don’t think it will be that big of a money maker to put it on the poll.

Wondering if anyone had any opinions about this one.

Yeah, I already had a bit of a debate about including a couple February films in the contest. March is certainly too far out to be a part of the poll. If we were including March, then films like A Wrinkle in Time, Red Sparrow, and perhaps even Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim 2 would be under legitimate consideration for the contest, in addition to Ready Player One.

-Jason "I too am excited for Ready Player One, though I bet the movie is very different from the book due to the challenges getting the rights to all those 1980s pop icons" Evans

[JasonEvans]

How did I miss Cloverfield 2? I really enjoyed the first one, but had no idea there was a 2nd and about to be a 3rd.

You didn't hear about 10 Cloverfield Lane (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_Cloverfield_Lane)? It wasn't really a sequel to Cloverfield other than the fact that it is set in the same universe. I think 10 Cloverfield Lane is a better film than the original.

[left_hook_lacey]

How did I miss Cloverfield 2? I really enjoyed the first one, but had no idea there was a 2nd and about to be a 3rd.

Nevermind, I remember now, they weren't called "cloverfield" but something else. They weren't direct sequels but supposed to have taken place in the same realm, with the promise of Abrams potentially one day connecting them all. Is this the one that is supposed to connect all the movies? Or just more clever marketing by Abrams?

[JasonEvans]

Ok, so I have opened the poll for the winter contest. It will end in 18 days, so your picks must be in a week before the first films open.

Here are the films, sorted by release date:
11/01 A Bad Moms Christmas
11/03 Thor: Ragnarok
11/10 Daddy's Home 2
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express
11/17 Justice League
11/23 Coco
12/15 Ferdinand
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12/22 Downsizing
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3
02/16 Black Panther

Worth noting, I tried to limit the number of named films to make the field seem more attractive. There are some really good films in the field including The Post, The Greatest Showman, Molly's Game, Fifty Shades 3, Cloverfield 3, and several others.

-Jason "vote away and, as alwsys, post your picks so we can discuss them" Evans

So, I forgot to clarify about the rules.


You may pick any film is the poll. If you pick field, then you are picking any unnamed film released between 11/1 and 2/28.
The contest will close as soon as it is clear which films will be the top 5 boxoffice winners. I am betting things will be clear by early March.
Make sure you vote for 5 films in the poll. Going 4-for-4 is no better than going 4-for-5. Don't pick 6. Even if you go 6-for-6, you will not be eligible for consideration as the winner.
Domestic boxoffice is the only metric we are counting.



-Jason "I think that's all you need to know. If you have any questions, feel free to post them and I will answer" Evans

[stevoflurane]

-Jason "I too am excited for Ready Player One, though I bet the movie is very different from the book due to the challenges getting the rights to all those 1980s pop icons" Evans

I watched a breakdown of the trailer the other day, and was actually encouraged about the amount of references. No idea about some of the big ones that weren’t in the trailer, but the attention to detail in what was shown was impressive.

And for the record, while the trailer did a decent job of showing the different references, if you haven’t read the book, you would have absolutely no clue what that movie is about.

...sorry to derail the topic.

[CameronBornAndBred]

How did I miss Cloverfield 2? I really enjoyed the first one, but had no idea there was a 2nd and about to be a 3rd.


You didn't hear about 10 Cloverfield Lane (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_Cloverfield_Lane)? It wasn't really a sequel to Cloverfield other than the fact that it is set in the same universe. I think 10 Cloverfield Lane is a better film than the original.

Odd timing for this conversation since I just watched it last night on Prime for the first time. I liked it a lot, even though it is literally a confined film. (Good way to keep your budget small!) John Goodman was excellent.
After I watched it, I did some looking into #3 (God Particle), and it seems that is also not a sequel but set in the Cloververse. It looks like it has its roots in a video game that has been transcribed to the big screen. We'll see how it fares, but since it isn't a sequel to either #1 or #2, then like #2, I don't expect it to make enough of a show to impact our poll.
Not sure which I'd rather see a sequel to first, Cloverfield or 10 Cloverfield Lane. Both are deserving.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I've got confidence in three movies.
Last Jedi, Thor, and Justice League, in that order.
I can't bank on Pixar anymore, and I while I am excited about the look of the Jumanji reboot, it is right on the heels of Star Wars, and right in front of Pitch Perfect 3. It won't win its opening weekend, and may not come in 2nd in its second weekend. That's a hard spot to fill.
Still, those last two would be my leans to round out the top 5. (Jumanji and PP3, or PP3 and the field.)

[LasVegas]

I've got confidence in three movies.
Last Jedi, Thor, and Justice League, in that order.
I can't bank on Pixar anymore, and I while I am excited about the look of the Jumanji reboot, it is right on the heels of Star Wars, and right in front of Pitch Perfect 3. It won't win its opening weekend, and may not come in 2nd in its second weekend. That's a hard spot to fill.
Still, those last two would be my leans to round out the top 5. (Jumanji and PP3, or PP3 and the field.)

I think you can assume black panther will be safely in the top 5 as well. When was marvels last box office bomb?

[brevity]

So, I forgot to clarify about the rules.


If you pick field, then you are picking any unnamed film released between 11/1 and 2/28.
Make sure you vote for 5 films in the poll.



You should further clarify what to do if a person wants to make more than one Field pick.

[Wander]

I think you can assume black panther will be safely in the top 5 as well. When was marvels last box office bomb?

Well, it can be not-a-bomb but not be in the Top 5. However, I think Thor (IMO the weakest character and films of the MCU) has a better chance of being cut out of the Top 5 than Black Panther, which will be fresher and more exciting to audiences.

[BD80]

Well, it can be not-a-bomb but not be in the Top 5. However, I think Thor (IMO the weakest character and films of the MCU) has a better chance of being cut out of the Top 5 than Black Panther, which will be fresher and more exciting to audiences.

Thor will have Hulk with him, AND it is a lead-in to Infinity War. But I agree it is the weakest MCU character.

Marvel has too much riding on this film to let it fail (relatively speaking).

[JasonEvans]

I think you can assume black panther will be safely in the top 5 as well. When was marvels last box office bomb?

Well, the last two brand new characters introduced to the MCU were Dr. Strange and Ant Man. Strange got a holiday release and made $232 million. Ant Man was a July release and made $180 million. This is a February release (among the worst month of the year for movies) and is an even less well-known character than Strange and Ant Man. What's more, the story will almost certainly largely take place outside the United States in Africa, and there is not a great history of boxoffice success in movies about Africa. One can pretty reasonably argue that Chadwick Boseman is the least famous of anyone who has headlined a MCU movie (maybe Chris Hemsworth, but the first Thor movie was a while ago). I'm not aware of any of the big MCU stars making a cameo in this film that can be exploited in the marketing the way Iron Man was for Spiderman: Homecoming.

All that is to say that Black Panther could make $160-$180 mil and not be considered anywhere close to a "bomb."

The question you have to ask is... would $160 mil or so get you to #5 in this winter's contest? There appear to be a lot of big films in our pool this time and it is not at all uncommon for one of the prime Oscar films to have long legs that propel it to big boxoffice (La La Land $151 mil, Hidden Figures $169 mil, The Revenant $183 mil, American Hustle $150 mil, Lincoln $182 mil, True Grit $171 mil, and so on).

-Jason "is this post for real or am I sandbagging?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

This is a February release (among the worst month of the year for movies)

There have been exactly 3 films released in the month of February to earn more than $180 mil** at the boxoffice. Each of them was a major cultural event and became iconic films that everyone in the nation talked about. Put another way, to be a big hit in February, you need to be a truly special flick. Here are the top 5 films of all time from the month of Feb:


Passion of the Christ - $370 mil
Deadpool - $363 mil
The LEGO Movie - $257 mil
Hitch - $179 mil
Lego Batman - $175 mil

-Jason "** $180 mil is the number I feel comfortable with as the cutoff for the top 5 of winter... maybe a little bit less, but our #5 film is generally right in that range" Evans

[JasonEvans]

You should further clarify what to do if a person wants to make more than one Field pick.

If you want to make 2 or more field picks, you should pick the films you want and then also check field. Then post in this thread that you want 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 field picks. So, if you took Justice League, Star Wars, Jumanji, and 2 field picks you would make 4 total votes (JL, SW, Ju, field) and then you would post that you are picking the field twice.

Make sense?

[YmoBeThere]

Can you clarify what you mean by this comment?

36 of 54 people got 4 of 5 or better. The Top 4 vote getters were the Top 4 films. The #7 vote getter finished 5th. Using the information of other picks can eliminate a lot of choices. We are voting on films and how much box office they do, which is a function of mass appeal. There is value to the information of how others are voting.

It would be interesting to timestamp entries in an attempt to measure any benefit.

[PackMan97]

It would be interesting to timestamp entries in an attempt to measure any benefit.

We could make entry time a tie breaker instead of the next movie in line.

[bjornolf]

I will say that that is exactly what I do (I look at votes on the last day and pick 1-5), though I often break away on my fifth movie and pick somewhere in #6-10. I have gotten 4/5 in just about every contest that way. HOWEVER, I didn't do that in my one win. I voted earlier and didn't just vulture off of people. When picking that final movie, others' votes often influence me to NOT go with my gut, and honestly, it has cost me at least one win.

[luburch]

Is there a way to hide the poll results until after you have submitted a vote?

[left_hook_lacey]

There have been exactly 3 films released in the month of February to earn more than $180 mil** at the boxoffice. Each of them was a major cultural event and became iconic films that everyone in the nation talked about. Put another way, to be a big hit in February, you need to be a truly special flick. Here are the top 5 films of all time from the month of Feb:


Passion of the Christ - $370 mil
Deadpool - $363 mil
The LEGO Movie - $257 mil
Hitch - $179 mil
Lego Batman - $175 mil

-Jason "** $180 mil is the number I feel comfortable with as the cutoff for the top 5 of winter... maybe a little bit less, but our #5 film is generally right in that range" Evans

Hitch stands out from the rest of the movies in this group, but not in a good way. It looks like it doesn't belong.

[left_hook_lacey]

After much debate about # 5 I chose.....

Star Wars
Thor
Blank Panther
Justice League
Jumanji

I don't feel comfortable going with 3 comic book movies, but they keep making them for a reason....$$$

I went with Jumanji. I wanted to go PP3, but I'm wondering if the franchise has outgrown its audience or the other way around. We'll see. Chose Jumanji, because....The Rock. I think Nick Jonas being in it is going to boost it also. I'm just hoping it's not a complete stinker and gets killed by word of mouth.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

After much debate about # 5 I chose....

Star Wars
Thor
Blank Panther
Justice League
Jumanji

I don't feel comfortable going with 3 comic book movies, but they keep making them for a reason...$$$

I went with Jumanji. I wanted to go PP3, but I'm wondering if the franchise has outgrown its audience or the other way around. We'll see. Chose Jumanji, because...The Rock. I think Nick Jonas being in it is going to boost it also. I'm just hoping it's not a complete stinker and gets killed by word of mouth.

Yeah, it is tough to choose by audience. Marvel makes money because they appeal to kids and adults. Same with Star Wars. Adult movies are harder to judge (see: Blade Runner).

[Native]

After much debate about # 5 I chose....

Star Wars
Thor
Blank Panther
Justice League
Jumanji

I don't feel comfortable going with 3 comic book movies, but they keep making them for a reason...$$$

I went with Jumanji. I wanted to go PP3, but I'm wondering if the franchise has outgrown its audience or the other way around. We'll see. Chose Jumanji, because...The Rock. I think Nick Jonas being in it is going to boost it also. I'm just hoping it's not a complete stinker and gets killed by word of mouth.

I have your five but swapped Jumanji for PP3. I think Jumanji will tank.

[BD80]

Last Jedi: Clear #1. Where will it rank against all other films in history?

Justice League: Solid #2. DCU saved by Wonder Woman. Joss Whedon will lighten the tone. Ben Affleck should thrive in the less austere mood. Ensemble of superheroes usually wins at Box Office

Thor: New haircut should appeal to women. Hulk smash appeals to men. Holiday big budget superhero flick destined to succeed, despite prior Thor efforts. Sounds like this will be the best of the 3.

Coco: Hispanic music, culture and actors - all trending up. Musical animated film for the holidays. "Secret" advantage.

Black Panther: Least confidence. Really cool superhero, could be the best character since Tony Stark. Will have been 3 months since last comic book movie, Feb films have done well.

Just missed:

PP3: Premise getting stale, Elizabeth Banks isn't directing. No Treblemakers.

Jumanji: No real buzz. Original is too old to appeal to target demographic. Too much Johnson? Baywatch stench may linger. Opens within a week of Jedi.

[PackMan97]

Coco: Hispanic music, culture and actors - all trending up. Musical animated film for the holidays. "Secret" advantage.


I have ZERO idea what Coco is...

I definitely agree Jedi and Justice League are both hands down shoe-ins. Even if Justice League disappoints, it's going to be a clear #2. After that, Thor and Black Panther are very likely to be top 5, but picking comic book movies is a bit booring.

[LasVegas]

Well, the last two brand new characters introduced to the MCU were Dr. Strange and Ant Man. Strange got a holiday release and made $232 million. Ant Man was a July release and made $180 million. This is a February release (among the worst month of the year for movies) and is an even less well-known character than Strange and Ant Man. What's more, the story will almost certainly largely take place outside the United States in Africa, and there is not a great history of boxoffice success in movies about Africa. One can pretty reasonably argue that Chadwick Boseman is the least famous of anyone who has headlined a MCU movie (maybe Chris Hemsworth, but the first Thor movie was a while ago). I'm not aware of any of the big MCU stars making a cameo in this film that can be exploited in the marketing the way Iron Man was for Spiderman: Homecoming.

All that is to say that Black Panther could make $160-$180 mil and not be considered anywhere close to a "bomb."

The question you have to ask is... would $160 mil or so get you to #5 in this winter's contest? There appear to be a lot of big films in our pool this time and it is not at all uncommon for one of the prime Oscar films to have long legs that propel it to big boxoffice (La La Land $151 mil, Hidden Figures $169 mil, The Revenant $183 mil, American Hustle $150 mil, Lincoln $182 mil, True Grit $171 mil, and so on).

-Jason "is this post for real or am I sandbagging?" Evans

Yeah, bomb was an incorrect word here for me. My first three were Star Wars, justice league, and Thor. I think those are gurateeed top 5 movies. After that it gets a little tricky but I think black panther will do enough to be one of the favorites for the top 5. Marvel has been on a role and I think it will do better than ant man did. My 5th pick was hard. I really really wanted to go with coco but in the end I think the star power of jumanji will put it over the top.

[left_hook_lacey]

I have your five but swapped Jumanji for PP3. I think Jumanji will tank.

Yeah, I was torn. The Rock seems to be killing it lately, but I don't know if his normal audience is going to turn out for this. I was kinda hoping for a trifecta target audience of my generation, that remember the first Jumanji movie, younger kids that like the premise of the movie(my kids saw the preview and went crazy for it so I might have read too much into that), the Jonas brothers groupies and those that like looking at The Rock. Time will tell, but I agree with you, it has all the makings of a flop if the story isn't tight.

[PackMan97]

Yeah, I was torn. The Rock seems to be killing it lately, but I don't know if his normal audience is going to turn out for this. I was kinda hoping for a trifecta target audience of my generation, that remember the first Jumanji movie, younger kids that like the premise of the movie(my kids saw the preview and went crazy for it so I might have read too much into that), the Jonas brothers groupies and those that like looking at The Rock. Time will tell, but I agree with you, it has all the makings of a flop if the story isn't tight.

The Rock certainly killed it with Baywatch!

[left_hook_lacey]

The Rock certainly killed it with Baywatch!

Ha ha ha. Touche'.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I have ZERO idea what Coco is...

I definitely agree Jedi and Justice League are both hands down shoe-ins. Even if Justice League disappoints, it's going to be a clear #2. After that, Thor and Black Panther are very likely to be top 5, but picking comic book movies is a bit booring.

If I were to pick an animated movie for the list, I'd go with Ferdinand over Coco. Loved and familiar story that parents will be able to share with their kids, done by the same studio that made buckets of money with the Ice Age and Rio movies. Like I said, I can't bank on Pixar anymore, and I bet they lose this battle.

[JasonEvans]

Thus far, Star Wars, Thor, and Justice League are at 100%. I think it would take a voter error or someone intentionally throwing the contest for them not to finish that way.

Aside from those 3, there is no other film pulling more than 50% of the vote. We have a lot of differing opinions about the rest.

[El_Diablo]

Thus far, Star Wars, Thor, and Justice League are at 100%. I think it would take a voter error or someone intentionally throwing the contest for them not to finish that way.

"Challenge accepted."
--Bluedag

[CameronBornAndBred]

I've got confidence in three movies.
Last Jedi, Thor, and Justice League, in that order.
I can't bank on Pixar anymore, and I while I am excited about the look of the Jumanji reboot, it is right on the heels of Star Wars, and right in front of Pitch Perfect 3. It won't win its opening weekend, and may not come in 2nd in its second weekend. That's a hard spot to fill.
Still, those last two would be my leans to round out the top 5. (Jumanji and PP3, or PP3 and the field.)
So much for that reasoning. I decided to bank on Pixar after all. It has lots of room after its release to enjoy repeat business. Went with Black Panther as my last pick over Jumanji; it's just too much in between a rock and a hard place for me to have confidence in it, and it's hard to vote against Marvel. (Plus the trailer looks cool.)
Looks like I have lots of company in my 5 picks.

[BD80]

So much for that reasoning. I decided to bank on Pixar after all. It has lots of room after its release to enjoy repeat business. Went with Black Panther as my last pick over Jumanji; it's just too much in between a rock and a hard place for me to have confidence in it, and it's hard to vote against Marvel. (Plus the trailer looks cool.)
Looks like I have lots of company in my 5 picks.

Frankly, you should have checked my track record before copying my picks. Choosing the field 5 times would have given you better odds of winning. A porg would likely do a better job than I.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Frankly, you should have checked my track record before copying my picks. Choosing the field 5 times would have given you better odds of winning. A porg would likely do a better job than I.

I've been victorious in the winter twice...so maybe I can help reverse your fortune!

[Reddevil]

If three of the choices stay at 100%, we have a two-pick contest. Maybe they should be removed from the contest and we pick the next 3, 4, or 5. Just a thought.

[PackMan97]

Went with Black Panther as my last pick over Jumanji; it's just too much in between a rock and a hard place for me to have confidence in it, and it's hard to vote against Marvel. (Plus the trailer looks cool..

I'm struggling with this one as well. I tried to base my pick on the trailer music. Guns N Roses "Welcome to the Jungle" is SOLID for Jumanji, but I must admit I was enjoying the beats in Black Panther's trailer. To me, it's likely the difference between someone building a world and someone making a movie. Jumanji is giving the impression in the trailer they are going to use cheap gags and cliched music and movies all over the movie, Marvel is going to introduce us to a new and very important part of the MCU in the upcoming Infinity War. I think at this point I too am leaning toward Black Panther just because if I had a choice to see one or the other I know how Jumanji is going to end.

[BD80]

I've been victorious in the winter twice...so maybe I can help reverse your fortune!

I picked Baywatch in the most recent contest.

Such idiocy cannot be remedied.

I should wear a helmet when making my picks.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Frankly, you should have checked my track record before copying my picks. Choosing the field 5 times would have given you better odds of winning. A porg would likely do a better job than I.

Check the Jedi thread for my Porg theory.

[YmoBeThere]

I should wear a helmet when making my picks.

I have extra foil if you need any.

[brevity]

If you like to look at comparative value, here are the numbers from the Hollywood Stock Exchange (https://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming).

Poll Choices

$775.05 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$315.73 Justice League
$215.82 Thor: Ragnarok
$181.42 Black Panther
$128.66 Coco
$108.90 Pitch Perfect 3
$106.41 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
$91.38 Ferdinand
$90.88 Daddy's Home 2
$83.54 A Bad Moms Christmas
$67.05 Murder on the Orient Express
$53.36 Downsizing

Top Field Picks

$92.13 Fifty Shades Freed
$66.98 Peter Rabbit
$56.33 The God Particle (Cloverfield)
$54.21 The Post
$51.74 The Star
$50.93 Maze Runner: The Death Cure

[JasonEvans]

If you like to look at comparative value, here are the numbers from the Hollywood Stock Exchange (https://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming).

Poll Choices

$775.05 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$315.73 Justice League
$215.82 Thor: Ragnarok
$181.42 Black Panther
$128.66 Coco
$108.90 Pitch Perfect 3
$106.41 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
$91.38 Ferdinand
$90.88 Daddy's Home 2
$83.54 A Bad Moms Christmas
$67.05 Murder on the Orient Express
$53.36 Downsizing

Top Field Picks

$92.13 Fifty Shades Freed
$66.98 Peter Rabbit
$56.33 The God Particle (Cloverfield)
$54.21 The Post
$51.74 The Star
$50.93 Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Worth noting that HSX only looks at the first 3 weekends of release. So a film that starts smaller and then goes wide -- like Oscar contenders often do -- could be very devalued by HSX. Similarly, films with long legs, like comedies and especially family films, will also be devalued.

-Jason "I think Downsizing is really undervalued. If you play HSX, go long on that film" Evans

[JasonEvans]

It isn't likely to be significant news for our contest, but The Current War (starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon), which tells the tale of the battle between Thomas Edison and George Westinghose to control the nation's electrical supply, has moved from a Thanksgiving opening to some time in 2018. The move likely takes the film out of the running for our contest.

There were two problems with this film. The first is that it got mediocre reviews when it opened at TIFF and was clearly in need of some fixes. The second is that it is one of the major releases coming up from The Weinstein Company and anything associated with Weinstein is total poison at this point.

Speaking of Harvey and his company, I believe the only chance that studio has to survive is to:

Change its name
Jettison anyone who is seen as having helped cover up Harvey's crimes... especially his brother
Remove Harvey's ability to get any profits from the future of the company
Set up a generous fund to campaign against sexual harassment.

Even then I' say the company has only a 50-50 shot at being a viable part of Hollywood going forward.

-Jason "anyway, if you were betting on The Current War as part of your field pick, you made a bad bet" Evans

[BD80]

It isn't likely to be significant news for our contest, but The Current War (starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon), which tells the tale of the battle between Thomas Edison and George Westinghose to control the nation's electrical supply, has moved from a Thanksgiving opening to some time in 2018. The move likely takes the film out of the running for our contest.

There were two problems with this film. The first is that it got mediocre reviews when it opened at TIFF and was clearly in need of some fixes. The second is that it is one of the major releases coming up from The Weinstein Company and anything associated with Weinstein is total poison at this point.
...
-Jason "anyway, if you were betting on The Current War as part of your field pick, you made a bad bet" Evans

Shocking.

I was amped up for this one.

[JasonEvans]

Shocking.

I was amped up for this one.

I know. There was an electricity in the air for this film. I just hope the story remains current. I'll do my best to keep all of you plugged in to any info I hear.

[YmoBeThere]

I know. There was an electricity in the air for this film. I just hope the story remains current. I'll do my best to keep all of you plugged in to any info I hear.

While the release date may be in flux, even if notice is short, we can build up some energy to ensure that it isn't shunted too quickly to the dollar theaters.

[BD80]

I know. There was an electricity in the air for this film. I just hope the story remains current. I'll do my best to keep all of you plugged in to any info I hear.


While the release date may be in flux, even if notice is short, we can build up some energy to ensure that it isn't shunted too quickly to the dollar theaters.

I expected more resistance to such a re-volting attempt to jumpstart another pun-fest.

[Chicago 1995]

Last Jedi, Thor and Justice League for sure.

Went Ferdinand and Jumanji, figuring family films will do well over the holidays and that there will be enough superhero fatigue to keep Black Panther just out of the top 5.

[PackMan97]

Last Jedi, Thor and Justice League for sure.

Went Ferdinand and Jumanji, figuring family films will do well over the holidays and that there will be enough superhero fatigue to keep Black Panther just out of the top 5.

It will be shocking if Jedi, Justice League, and Thor don't finish in the top 3 and in that order.

I too went with Ferdinand because as Cars 3 proved, Pixar just isn't a shoe-in anymore and if I wanted to take my kids to see a movie (I don't), it would be Ferdinand and not Coco (which just seems like the latin american take on Footloose or something). Although, I thin k the release date for Ferdinand is not optimal for finish top 5.

Jumanji, ugh! I hated the trailer. HATED IT! As much as I like The Rock....his attempts at comedy and non-action movies have left me really sad. Hated Central Intelligence and really don't like Kevin Hart. That this is another action-comedy with Hart really makes me not want to see it. It's kinda like putting Carolina in my march madness bracket because it might help me win. Well, let me tell you, I'm done with that crap. I don't want this movie to be successful so I'm not voting for it!

[Chicago 1995]

It will be shocking if Jedi, Justice League, and Thor don't finish in the top 3 and in that order.

I too went with Ferdinand because as Cars 3 proved, Pixar just isn't a shoe-in anymore and if I wanted to take my kids to see a movie (I don't), it would be Ferdinand and not Coco (which just seems like the latin american take on Footloose or something). Although, I thin k the release date for Ferdinand is not optimal for finish top 5.

Jumanji, ugh! I hated the trailer. HATED IT! As much as I like The Rock...his attempts at comedy and non-action movies have left me really sad. Hated Central Intelligence and really don't like Kevin Hart. That this is another action-comedy with Hart really makes me not want to see it. It's kinda like putting Carolina in my march madness bracket because it might help me win. Well, let me tell you, I'm done with that crap. I don't want this movie to be successful so I'm not voting for it!

Jumanji was kind of a "I'm not sure what else to pick" kind of movie. That said, I think there might be enough nostalgia/credibility with parents who saw the original that it could get momentum. The Rock in non-action movies isn't the lock I'd like him to be, but what's a better bet?

[bjornolf]

I didn't really like the original Jumanji, and I love Robin Williams. I'm curious about Coco. Did Book of the Dead, or Book of Life or whatever it was called do well? Seems like it plays to the same audience to me.

[JasonEvans]

I'm curious about Coco. Did Book of the Dead, or Book of Life or whatever it was called do well? Seems like it plays to the same audience to me.

Book of Life (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=bookoflife14.htm) made $50 mil... not good.

But, PIXAR!!

[NashvilleDevil]

Went with the obvious for 3 of them, 1) Star Wars, 2) Thor, 3) Justice League.

For my last 2 I went with Black Panther and after seeing the latest trailer I am glad I did, that movie looks legit.

I went with Ferdinand as my family pick. Both of my kids have read the book and they saw the trailer for this in the summer and want to see it. Looks like it could be a fun time at the movies.

[PackMan97]

For my last 2 I went with Black Panther and after seeing the latest trailer I am glad I did, that movie looks legit.

I must admit I'm getting stoked about Black Panther. I really didn't "get it" when it was announced....but the rollout for Wakanda has been masterful. While the MCU has had a few hicups, over all it's just been so well done. With the lead ups to the new Thor movie, the teases for Black Panther...the introduction of the infinity stones to lead into Infinity War...Marvel has made movies that look really good as stand alones, but also are able to move a plot along in a different story line.

[davekay1971]

I must admit I'm getting stoked about Black Panther. I really didn't "get it" when it was announced...but the rollout for Wakanda has been masterful. While the MCU has had a few hicups, over all it's just been so well done. With the lead ups to the new Thor movie, the teases for Black Panther...the introduction of the infinity stones to lead into Infinity War...Marvel has made movies that look really good as stand alones, but also are able to move a plot along in a different story line.

Even though I enjoyed the first two Thor movies more than most other people, I wasn't all that excited for the third one...until I started seeing the trailers and hearing all the great early buzz. Now I'm stoked. But the movie which really had me excited for winter was Black Panther. As soon as I heard it was going to feature Michael B Jordan as the villain and was being directed by Ryan Coogler, Michael B Jordan's director from Creed, I was hopeful. Also just really loved Chadwick Boseman in the Black Panther role in Civil War. The trailers have certainly been exciting. And, of course, there seems to be a bigger role in this for Andy Serkis as (I guess) one of the villains.

Hopefully Martin Freeman will get more screen time. Marvel has teased us before with great actors (Idris Elba) in tiny but memorable roles and the promise that the role will grow to take advantage of the quality of the actor. In Elba's case, that hasn't happened. Would be a crime to have actors like he and Freeman not able to really stretch their wings a little.

[Wander]

I messed up the summer movie thread by not picking Wonder Woman. Not again. Black Panther will be successful in part for similar reasons to WW and in part because it just is going to feel fresher than something like Thor 3.

[JasonEvans]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:


Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them ;) " Evans

[FerryFor50]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:


Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them ;) " Evans

I went with Coco, but I wonder how many families are going to want to bring their kids to an animated movie that invites lots of tough questions about death...

[LasVegas]

Seems like it’s going to come down to that 5th spot. Coco, jumanji, Ferdinand, field. I went with jumanji just because I liked the trailers and I like the stars in it. Kevin Hart always entertains me. But I ALMOST went with Coco. It looks great.

Justice League looks terrible and I anticipate it being terrible. Will still bring in the money though, largely thanks to wonder women.

[luburch]

I went with the four fairly easy picks. Last Jedi, Black Panther, Justice League, Thor.

The 5th pick was a little more difficult. Struggled to decide between Ferdinand and Coco. I watched trailers for both and Ferdinand seems like the more fun film, but it's released on the same day as Last Jedi. Downsizing is the film I think has an outside shot of creeping into the top 5 as well. The trailer looks fun and it has a strong cast.

I ended up going with Ferdinand in the end. Hope I don't regret it.

[DUKIECB]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:


Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them ;) " EvansYou wrote the explanation for my picks exactly as I feel about them. I too went with Coco as #5 as I think the Hispanic audience will help it and my other consideration, Ferdinand, simply has too much competition to overcome during the time of its release. I hate making the boring picks, they almost never work out but if they do I will go back to back for the summer / winter!

[IrishDevil]

You wrote the explanation for my picks exactly as I feel about them. I too went with Coco as #5 as I think the Hispanic audience will help it and my other consideration, Ferdinand, simply has too much competition to overcome during the time of its release. I hate making the boring picks, they almost never work out but if they do I will go back to back for the summer / winter!

My picks and thoughts exactly. I almost hope I lose so the contest is a bit more interesting with a dark horse contender, but I think Ferdinand's release date hands #5 to Coco.

[CameronBornAndBred]

My picks and thoughts exactly. I almost hope I lose so the contest is a bit more interesting with a dark horse contender, but I think Ferdinand's release date hands #5 to Coco.
Last winter I won with Sing as a pick, and it was released essentially the same time as Rogue One. But, I also had faith in The Good Dinosaur being an adventure in suckitude. I think this season Coco has too much going for it, though, to allow Ferdinand to squeeze in to the top 5.

[IrishDevil]

Last winter I won with Sing as a pick, and it was released essentially the same time as Rogue One. But, I also had faith in The Good Dinosaur being an adventure in suckitude. I think this season Coco has too much going for it, though, to allow Ferdinand to squeeze in to the top 5.

Agreed. Also, despite Disney's fervent wishes otherwise, the core Star Wars "saga" films still generate more positive buzz and repeat viewings than the side "anthology" films, especially anthology films with a darker premise/ending, troubled production history, and more mixed reviews, like Rogue One. I haven't heard anything like that with Ep. VIII, so I think Ferdinand faces a taller task in competing with the Last Jedi.

[PackMan97]

Agreed. Also, despite Disney's fervent wishes otherwise, the core Star Wars "saga" films still generate more positive buzz and repeat viewings than the side "anthology" films, especially anthology films with a darker premise/ending, troubled production history, and more mixed reviews, like Rogue One. I haven't heard anything like that with Ep. VIII, so I think Ferdinand faces a taller task in competing with the Last Jedi.

I used to think that movies like Star Wars and Ferdinand didn't compete for audiences....but danged...parents will take their little ones to see anything these days....$15 for ticket and popcorn for their six year old and therapy at a later date is so much cheaper than $50 for a baby sitter! :mad:

So, the parents and kid get to see Star Wars and no one goes to see Ferdinand. Of course, I guess the ticket prices and cost of baby sitters doesn't help much either. Who can afford a date night + baby sitter AND a matinee the next day.

[JasonEvans]

If you were waiting to vote at the last minute, you have about 3 days left.

Interesting that the Field is the 6th most popular choice this winter. Probably not a bad bet. We've certainly seen a number of field choices crack our contest in the past.

-Jason "I know there are a couple of you who did not vote for Thor... you made a mistake (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/thor_ragnarok_2017/)" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

If you were waiting to vote at the last minute, you have about 3 days left.

Interesting that the Field is the 6th most popular choice this winter. Probably not a bad bet. We've certainly seen a number of field choices crack our contest in the past.

-Jason "I know there are a couple of you who did not vote for Thor... you made a mistake (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/thor_ragnarok_2017/)" Evans

The field was tempting. I think Murder on the Orient Express looks all kinds of fun. And there is the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day-Lewis (can we cram a few more names in there?) Phantom Thread, which pairs those two again for Lewis' swan song movie outing. (They did There Will Be Blood.)
But, I don't see anything out there, even the Oscar contenders, that will pack a top 5 punch.

[Doria]

The field was tempting. I think Murder on the Orient Express looks all kinds of fun. And there is the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day-Lewis (can we cram a few more names in there?) Phantom Thread, which pairs those two again for Lewis' swan song movie outing. (They did There Will Be Blood.)
But, I don't see anything out there, even the Oscar contenders, that will pack a top 5 punch.

Totally agree. I really wanted to take the girls because I was dissatisfied with either of my final picks for #5. Ultimately, though, I just couldn’t. I couldn’t really see any of the field picks justifying themselves over either of the choices I had for #5.

(On a total tangent, I’m excited to see Orient Express.)

[BD80]

As we enter the last day to vote, I thought the procrastinators would appreciate knowing that Coco has an advantage that I haven't seen mentioned: it will be accompanied with a 20 minute short of Josh Gad's Olaf from Frozen learning about Christmas customs. Kristen Bell and Idina Manzel lend their voices in cameos.

Even a 20 minute "sequel" of Frozen will bring in lots of kids, probably multiple times, as parents dump their kids at the movies while they shop. The Christmas theme will add to the box office and defray some of the competition that The Star will offer with respect to animated films over the same time frame.

[brevity]

As we enter the last day to vote, I thought the procrastinators would appreciate knowing that Coco has an advantage that I haven't seen mentioned: it will be accompanied with a 20 minute short of Josh Gad's Olaf from Frozen learning about Christmas customs. Kristen Bell and Idina Manzel lend their voices in cameos.

Even a 20 minute "sequel" of Frozen will bring in lots of kids, probably multiple times, as parents dump their kids at the movies while they shop. The Christmas theme will add to the box office and defray some of the competition that The Star will offer with respect to animated films over the same time frame.

Thanks for the reminder. I was procrastinating to the point of forgetting. And despite your well-reasoned argument, I talked myself out of voting for Coco.

In order of confidence:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Thor: Ragnarok
3. Justice League
4. Black Panther
5. Field

Hardly a unique set. I lack the enthusiasm to attempt anything different.

Black Panther comes out 12 days after the Super Bowl, but marketing it to NFL fans is tricky now. Will Marvel be able to put together a trailer of just the Martin Freeman and Andy Serkis scenes?

I think the Weinstein effect will make further changes to the release schedule. I suspect Paddington 2 will be delayed, which hurts the Field pick a bit. I disagree with Jason about Downsizing; like Kristen Wiig, it has a low ceiling of popularity, and Matt Damon’s image is hurting right now.

While not a betting person, I wonder how a side bet of Bad Moms Christmas vs. Daddy’s Home 2 would go. They seem like very similar films, and I vastly underestimated the box office of their first installments.

[-jk]

Thanks for the reminder. I was procrastinating to the point of forgetting. And despite your well-reasoned argument, I talked myself out of voting for Coco.

In order of confidence:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Thor: Ragnarok
3. Justice League
4. Black Panther
5. Field

Hardly a unique set. I lack the enthusiasm to attempt anything different.

Black Panther comes out 12 days after the Super Bowl, but marketing it to NFL fans is tricky now. Will Marvel be able to put together a trailer of just the Martin Freeman and Andy Serkis scenes?

I think the Weinstein effect will make further changes to the release schedule. I suspect Paddington 2 will be delayed, which hurts the Field pick a bit. I disagree with Jason about Downsizing; like Kristen Wiig, it has a low ceiling of popularity, and Matt Damon’s image is hurting right now.

While not a betting person, I wonder how a side bet of Bad Moms Christmas vs. Daddy’s Home 2 would go. They seem like very similar films, and I vastly underestimated the box office of their first installments.

I may be misunderstanding (and don't really follow the film threads) - aren't you supposed to name your "field" choice?

-jk

[CameronBornAndBred]

I may be misunderstanding (and don't really follow the film threads) - aren't you supposed to name your "field" choice?

-jk

No. You are picking "the field" to cover your bases. You could actually have 2 field movies win, but then you'd lose, assuming you picked 4 named ones.

[JasonEvans]

No. You are picking "the field" to cover your bases. You could actually have 2 field movies win, but then you'd lose, assuming you picked 4 named ones.

Yeah, "field" is different from "other," which we have had as an option in the past and required you to name your "other" film. "Field" is every film not named that is released during the time period of the contest. Examples of "field" picks that have made major waves in our contest in the past are The Hangover, Maleficent, and Wedding Crashers.

That said, I would love to hear some of the "field" folks weigh in with some of the films they think might be their champion. Is anyone else intrigued by The Post? Probably not enough action for a young audience and likely to be shunned by every Trump voter so I guess it may not be all that big.

-Jason "I missed the critic screening of Thor last night due to previous plans... but they screened it really early which is a very good sign for the quality of the film" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

With very early reviews in, I'm feeling pretty confident in my Coco choice. Sounds like Pixar is once again doing what they do very well.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/coco_2017

[PackMan97]

Thor: Ragnarok is looking like a serious contender. It had a $100m+ opening internationally and has the US to go this weekend. It's running ahead of expectations and ahead of Guardians 2!

[Udaman]

DOH!!! Missed the deadline. My 5 are

Thor - Absolute Lock
Star Wars - Absolute Lock
Justice League - Absolute Lock (though worried it won’t be any good)
Coco - when is the last holiday period a kids movie didn’t make the list? One will - I’m betting on Pixar

So what’s last? Probably Black Panther. But not sold on it. Maybe Daddy’s Home? Comedies do well. Hard to argue against field because there could be a sleeper. But I guess I’ll do

Pitch Perfect 3. Young teens love this. The last one did $175M and wasn’t that great. It’s a popular franchise and is a safe bet for the holidays.

[luburch]

I have a somewhat relevant question. Does anyone here use MoviePass? I've done some research and the reviews seem solid, but I've been looking for someone who has experience with it before diving in.

[bcsu]

I currently have a MoviePass card. I've only used it 4 times so far (2 matinees, 2 evening shows). 3 of the times, it's worked as advertised. On the fourth (evening), the moviepass
card only had funds for 1/2 the price of admission ($5.92 instead of $11.84). Not sure if it's because I picked up the ticket at noon for the evening show. For the others, I picked
up tickets right before the movie. I'm still not sure how the business model works though...


I have a somewhat relevant question. Does anyone here use MoviePass? I've done some research and the reviews seem solid, but I've been looking for someone who has experience with it before diving in.

[nmduke2001]

DOH!!! Missed the deadline. My 5 are

Thor - Absolute Lock
Star Wars - Absolute Lock
Justice League - Absolute Lock (though worried it won’t be any good)
Coco - when is the last holiday period a kids movie didn’t make the list? One will - I’m betting on Pixar

So what’s last? Probably Black Panther. But not sold on it. Maybe Daddy’s Home? Comedies do well. Hard to argue against field because there could be a sleeper. But I guess I’ll do

Pitch Perfect 3. Young teens love this. The last one did $175M and wasn’t that great. It’s a popular franchise and is a safe bet for the holidays.

You can check how I'm doing. That's my exact five.

[left_hook_lacey]

I have a somewhat relevant question. Does anyone here use MoviePass? I've done some research and the reviews seem solid, but I've been looking for someone who has experience with it before diving in.

Just call the movieline. He can help answer your questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm4mDO4XGIE

[brevity]

Not so fast on the Thor: Ragnarok predictions. It may do just fine this weekend, but I wonder if people will keep buying tickets once they realize they can watch an enhanced 11-minute version for free on YouTube:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8atgsWFfDOg

The characters really do leap off the screen. 4D > IMAX 3D.

[JasonEvans]

Not so fast on the Thor: Ragnarok predictions. It may do just fine this weekend, but I wonder if people will keep buying tickets once they realize they can watch an enhanced 11-minute version for free on YouTube:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8atgsWFfDOg

The characters really do leap off the screen. 4D > IMAX 3D.

I truly cannot tell if that spoiled the movie or not. Regardless, it was brilliant.

-Jason "can you imagine being one of the folks in that theater? I am certain they collected all cell phones before anyone went in otherwise there would be 300 versions of that floating around the internet" Evans

[PackMan97]

The characters really do leap off the screen. 4D > IMAX 3D.

There is a reason these folks are movie actors and not stage actors.... :)

[JasonEvans]

$121 mil opening weekend for Thor with great word-of-mouth. As if we did not already know, it is now a mortal lock to make our top 5 of Winter. It is pretty much a done deal that it will make at least $300 mil in total boxoffice. Every film that has opened to more than $103 million dollars has made at least $280 mil at the boxoffice (the Twilight films are the only ones that open big -- $120+ mil --- but then make less than $300 mil).

https://lumiere-a.akamaihd.net/v1/images/image_366f6c25.jpeg?height=354&region=0%2C0%2C512%2C288&width=630

[YmoBeThere]

Woe to the two folks who did not select it...

[left_hook_lacey]

$121 mil opening weekend for Thor with great word-of-mouth. As if we did not already know, it is now a mortal lock to make our top 5 of Winter. It is pretty much a done deal that it will make at least $300 mil in total boxoffice. Every film that has opened to more than $103 million dollars has made at least $280 mil at the boxoffice (the Twilight films are the only ones that open big -- $120+ mil --- but then make less than $300 mil).

https://lumiere-a.akamaihd.net/v1/images/image_366f6c25.jpeg?height=354&region=0%2C0%2C512%2C288&width=630

I saw it this weekend. I don't usually go to see the comic book movies, but we took the kids for making honor roll and perfect attendance. My wife fell asleep, which isn't necessarily an indicator of the quality of the movie as much as just her letting everything go and sitting still for two hours.

I thought it was ok, and better than I expected, but as I said, I don't expect a whole lot from movies that are based on comic books. It did have some Dead Pool-like comedy moments in it which made me laugh aloud. It got a little confusing and contradictory to me at times, but that could be chocked up to me not seeing all the previous Thor movies or other movies that Thor had a role. I would ask what was going on in a couple of parts, but don't want to post spoilers.

All 3 kids loved it. Ages 9, 13, and 14.

Jeff Goldblum was Jeff Goldblum-y.

[davekay1971]

My wife and I both saw Thor and had a great time. It was very funny, one of the funniest Marvel movies. Loki was typically good, Hemsworth showed better comedic chops than I would have expected, and the interplay between Hulk/Banner and Thor was great. The action was solid, typical Marvel comics movies stuff. Unlike Left Hook, I like the comic book movies and have seen both of the previous Thor movies. To compare it to the other ones, it was most like Guardians in tone, but not didn't hit that level. I'd put it in 2nd tier (by which I mean below Cap: Winter Soldier, Iron Man 1, Guardians 1, and Avengers), in a group with Cap:Civil War, Spider Man, Doc Strange, Guardians 2. If you liked Guardians or Spider Man (the other Marvel movie which I found very funny), you'll like this. If you didn't like the previous Thor movies, you'll still like this.

$350 is not a stretch, unless Justice League is a HECK of a lot better than I think it'll be.

As an aside, never want to take much from theater trailer reactions, but I think DC doesn't have much goodwill out there, with WW as the notable exception. When the Justice League trailer came onscreen, it was greeted with a few cheers, a few groans, but mostly indifference. Same reaction when the trailer was over. When the Black Panther trailer came on immediately after, there was a much, much more enthusiastic reaction, and the buzz after it was significant.

[Doria]

Hmm, I didn’t get a Justice League trailer, but the Black Panther trailer elicited a similar response as described ^. In fact, I’ve seen trailers for it before a couple of movies, and I feel comfortable in saying that the response has grown markedly warmer.

[PackMan97]

Hmm, I didn’t get a Justice League trailer, but the Black Panther trailer elicited a similar response as described ^. In fact, I’ve seen trailers for it before a couple of movies, and I feel comfortable in saying that the response has grown markedly warmer.

I think the Black Panther is the type of movie that suffers from real life issues that bleed into it's making, marketing and hype. However, as teasers and trailers come out, I think folks are just wanting to go to see another great Marvel Superhero movie. Personally, the more I see for it, the more excited I get. I'm hoping that they didn't get to spoil to much (I'm looking at you Thor: Ragnarok)

[JasonEvans]

It appears Thor is going to do around $54 mil in weekend #2 and will easily pass the $200 mil mark. Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express are both doing nicely, around $27 mil each, but not nearly the kind of numbers needed to make them contenders in our contest. It seems unlikely that either of them will even earn $100 million total.

On a side note, having seen Murder at a screening a few days ago, I found it fairly weak and muddled. I suspect word of mouth won't be great. It seems to want to start a new Christie/Poirot franchise... but if we do get a Death on the Nile sequel it won't be because this film did unexpectedly huge boxoffice.

-Jason "Johnny Depp's star has really faded... his smallish role in this film is just not good" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Early reviews are looking positive for Justice League. I wasn't thrilled by the trailers, but from what I've read, it's better than Suicide Squad, and that made a bunch o' cash. I wasn't super worried about it missing the top 5, but now I'm certain it will maintain its "lock" status.

[BD80]

Early reviews are looking positive for Justice League. I wasn't thrilled by the trailers, but from what I've read, it's better than Suicide Squad, and that made a bunch o' cash. I wasn't super worried about it missing the top 5, but now I'm certain it will maintain its "lock" status.

Umm. It's got Wonder Woman... It's a lock.

[JasonEvans]

Do the field voters want to see one of their top contenders?

I present, The Post...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrXlY6gzTTM

[PackMan97]

Do the field voters want to see one of their top contenders?

I present, The Post...

Meh. Last thing I want to see is PPB discussions when I go to the movies to get away from it all.

[JasonEvans]

Meh. Last thing I want to see is PPB discussions when I go to the movies to get away from it all.

The story here is about the 1960s and 1970s publishing of the Pentagon Papers, not any current political fight between the press and the president. It is an extremely important moment in our nation's belief in the sacred nature of a free press. It is no more PPB than Lincoln ending slavery or Brown vs. Board of Education, hardly controversial topics at all in our current society.

-Jason "but, if it ain't your cup of tea, no biggie... I suspect there will be a lot of folks who are very interested in seeing Spielberg/Streep/Hanks take on this important historical event" Evans

[davekay1971]

It appears Thor is going to do around $54 mil in weekend #2 and will easily pass the $200 mil mark. Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express are both doing nicely, around $27 mil each, but not nearly the kind of numbers needed to make them contenders in our contest. It seems unlikely that either of them will even earn $100 million total.

On a side note, having seen Murder at a screening a few days ago, I found it fairly weak and muddled. I suspect word of mouth won't be great. It seems to want to start a new Christie/Poirot franchise... but if we do get a Death on the Nile sequel it won't be because this film did unexpectedly huge boxoffice.

-Jason "Johnny Depp's star has really faded... his smallish role in this film is just not good" Evans

Thor is now projected to a $61 million weekend, which is a very impressive hold from week 1 and important given the upcoming Justice League competition.

Murder got a B cinemascore. JE, you are correct about the word of mouth.

[JasonEvans]

Thor is now projected to a $61 million weekend, which is a very impressive hold from week 1 and important given the upcoming Justice League competition.

If a new rule was passed saying that there could only be 1 comic book movie in theaters at a time and Thor was pulled from all theaters this coming week when Justice League opened, Thor would still make our top 5 or Winter, I think. It should be at about $225-230 mil by Thursday.

[LasVegas]

Saw Thor last night and it was great. Although, some of the comedy was just plain stupid. I really liked how the ending was unexpected for a super hero film. Don’t want to say more and spoil it.

[El_Diablo]

Saw Thor last night and it was great. Although, some of the comedy was just plain stupid. I really liked how the ending was unexpected for a super hero film. Don’t want to say more and spoil it.

Hmmm, so apparently it does not end with a formulaic outdoor melee on the streets of a major metropolitan area?

[BD80]

Early reviews are looking positive for Justice League. I wasn't thrilled by the trailers, but from what I've read, it's better than Suicide Squad, and that made a bunch o' cash. I wasn't super worried about it missing the top 5, but now I'm certain it will maintain its "lock" status.


Umm. It's got Wonder Woman... It's a lock.


But Wonder Woman II may not have Wonder Woman:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-wonder-woman-apos-fights-162358939.html

Good for her

[davekay1971]

But Wonder Woman II may not have Wonder Woman:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-wonder-woman-apos-fights-162358939.html

Good for her

Gal Gadot gives off a very strong "don't mess with me" vibe. Maybe her time in the Israeli military. Or maybe she's just awesome. DC better listen to her - right now she's the only thing exciting about the DC movie university.

[JasonEvans]

she's the only thing exciting about the DC movie university.

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/kZAAAOSwtnpXpJ91/s-l300.jpg

[davekay1971]

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/kzaaaoswtnpxpj91/s-l300.jpg

coeds!!!!!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Saw Thor last night and it was great. Although, some of the comedy was just plain stupid. I really liked how the ending was unexpected for a super hero film. Don’t want to say more and spoil it.
Agreed. Great movie though I felt some of the comedy was just oddly placed and extraneous. Still, it was very entertaining and my kids and I had a blast.

[mph]

This (https://apnews.com/bcabe3bcfb4b401ba6911800a8eb0771/Review:-Not-even-Wonder-Woman-can-save-'Justice-League') doesn’t bode well for Justice League:


But everything else about “Justice League” feels labored, from a preposterous underwater battle that comes out of nowhere and the camaraderie between the superheroes that never clicks into place, to Batman’s lumbering gait (does the batsuit weigh 300 pounds?) and Superman’s mouth which looks a little...off. It’s likely because the production had to digitally remove Cavill’s “Mission: Impossible 6" mustache for re-shoots. After experiencing this unnaturally altered face on the big screen, it seems like the worst possible compromise.

Or this (https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/11/justice-league-review):


But once in awhile, there comes along something so egregiously bad that trying to find something good to say about it is its own kind of cruelty; such an obvious act of reaching only highlights the production’s garish dimensions, its abject failures. And, worse still, it can encourage more. In these instances, pure and unadorned honesty is really the only way to go, difficult as it may be to deliver. And so, dear Justice League, I must say that no, the lighting is not good. The script is not interesting. The costumes are not fun. The film is, plainly stated, terrible, and I’m sorry that everyone wasted their time and money making it—and that people are being asked to waste their time and money seeing it. I hate to be so blunt, but it simply must be said this time.

This (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/justice-league-review-dcs-superhero-embarrassment-beyond-saving/) isn’t good:


Yet there’s no trace of [hope] in Warner Bros’ latest hapless attempt to jump-start their DC Comics blockbuster brand, which at this point looks less like a cinematic universe than a pop-cultural black hole, sucking up as much money and audience goodwill as the studio can shovel into it.

I came across one review that describes Justice League as a bad film but a good time at the theater, so that’s at least somewhat positive, I guess. Of course, none of this will stop Justice league from making our top-5 but it appears that the film is every bit as bad as many of us expected and feared.

[PackMan97]

Of course, none of this will stop Justice league from making our top-5 but it appears that the film is every bit as bad as many of us expected and feared.

What is amazing to me is DC's inability to make well recieved movies, or Marvels continued golden touch. Let's face it, only Inhumans and Iron Fist have been widely hated. Even the "bad" movies in the MCU like Dark World, Iron Man 2/3, Hulk, still have reviews the rebooted DCEU movies would kill to have (Suicide Squad, Man of Steel, BatvSuper).

Of course, if it makes the studio money and they see how much Marvel is making...DC is going to keep having a go at it. At what point does audience good will end?

I also find it very cool on Marvel's part that they took two lowest rated hero movies , Thor and Hulk, and did a reboot inside the continuity with great results.

[JasonEvans]

You sorta cherry picked the bad Justice League reviews there, mph. Some others have been pretty good including Richard Roper in the Chicago Sun-Times (https://chicago.suntimes.com/entertainment/fun-justice-league-cleverly-assembles-a-superhuman-fight-club/) and Bilge Ebiri in the Village Voice (https://www.villagevoice.com/2017/11/15/spoiler-justice-league-is-fleet-and-fun-even-with-the-emo-gloom/).

Rotten Tomatoes, for some reason, has not yet put up a critic score, but Metacritic has it at 51, which is decidedly mixed, but at least better than the 40 that was Suicide Squad or 44 that was BvS.

-Jason "I would weigh in, but I skipped the Justice League screening last night so I could watch the Duke-MSU game... good choice on my part!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

You sorta cherry picked the bad Justice League reviews there, mph. Some others have been pretty good including Richard Roper in the Chicago Sun-Times (https://chicago.suntimes.com/entertainment/fun-justice-league-cleverly-assembles-a-superhuman-fight-club/) and Bilge Ebiri in the Village Voice (https://www.villagevoice.com/2017/11/15/spoiler-justice-league-is-fleet-and-fun-even-with-the-emo-gloom/).

Rotten Tomatoes, for some reason, has not yet put up a critic score, but Metacritic has it at 51, which is decidedly mixed, but at least better than the 40 that was Suicide Squad or 44 that was BvS.

-Jason "I would weigh in, but I skipped the Justice League screening last night so I could watch the Duke-MSU game... good choice on my part!" Evans

By the way, props to Ebiri for this hysterical plot summary...


Much of Justice League follows Bruce Wayne’s and Wonder Woman/Diana Prince’s attempts to assemble a team of heroes — including manly, gruff loner Arthur Curry/Aquaman (Jason Momoa), wide-eyed and lightning-fast über-nerd Barry Allen/Flash (Ezra Miller), and constantly changing cybernetic teenager Victor Stone/Cyborg (Ray Fisher) — in time to battle the ancient evil Steppenwolf (Ciarán Hinds), a Satanic figure who commands an army of winged, fear-seeking parademons. Steppenwolf is searching for the three “mother-boxes” — ancient, buried containers of energy that if joined together will…oh, who the f!@^ cares. Steppenwolf bad. Boxes bad. Superheroes good. Superheroes call friends. Big boom muscle go bang now.

[JasonEvans]

I am swamped and will try to post something longer later, but I wanted to mention that I saw a screening of Coco a couple days ago and... WOW!

This is perhaps Pixar's best "family is important" movie yet. It is decidedly Mexican, and will no doubt be a huge hit in the Latino community, but the theme of loving and cherishing your ancestors is universal and makes this a great family film. There was not a single dry eye in the house at the end of the movie, I was wiping tears away with both hands. It is not quite as funny as some Pixar films, but the story is rich and engaging and the movie is simply gorgeous.

If you have a child between 6 and 12, this is a must see and will likely produce a wonderful connection with your child. It will be easy to come out of the film and have a really engaging conversation with your child about their ancestors and how your family has made them into the person they are today.

https://cdn.movieweb.com/img.news.tops/NEeeoffrMGx0hg_1_a/Coco-Movie-2017-Trailer-Disney-Pixar.jpg

It is a bit slow at the start as I wasn't completely hooked until the middle. For that reason I don't think it is quite as good as the very top of the Pixar cannon -- Wall*E, Monsters Inc, Incredibles, Ratatouille, and Toy Story -- but it comes close. I think it is up there with Inside Out, Up, and maybe even Finding Nemo. It is going to do huge boxoffice business.

-Jason "I love the theme of the story -- about connecting with your family's past... really special" Evans

[PackMan97]

It is going to do huge boxoffice business.

There was a typo in my entry for the Winter contest, I had a typo. I meant to spell Coco, but typed Ferdinand instead. Please revise my entry accordingly.

[camion]

There was a typo in my entry for the Winter contest, I had a typo. I meant to spell Coco, but typed Ferdinand instead. Please revise my entry accordingly.

Don't you just hate that auto-correct feature on computers? The correction is often far removed from what I should have typed. :mad:

[JasonEvans]

You know, I feel awful that no one has noted this yet, but Bluedag voted for 5 films. I think he/she deserves much praise for successfully doing that in this contest.

It is worth noting that one of his/her picks is "field" and it is entirely possible he/she believes that Dunkirk is eligible for field consideration.

-Jason "I keed, I keed... all in good fun my blue friend" Evans

[mph]

You sorta cherry picked the bad Justice League reviews there, mph. Some others have been pretty good including Richard Roper in the Chicago Sun-Times (https://chicago.suntimes.com/entertainment/fun-justice-league-cleverly-assembles-a-superhuman-fight-club/) and Bilge Ebiri in the Village Voice (https://www.villagevoice.com/2017/11/15/spoiler-justice-league-is-fleet-and-fun-even-with-the-emo-gloom/).

Rotten Tomatoes, for some reason, has not yet put up a critic score, but Metacritic has it at 51, which is decidedly mixed, but at least better than the 40 that was Suicide Squad or 44 that was BvS.

-Jason "I would weigh in, but I skipped the Justice League screening last night so I could watch the Duke-MSU game... good choice on my part!" Evans

First, we can all agree that you definitely made the right choice.

Second, one of us is guilty of cherry picking :D. There are a few positive reviews and a larger group of mixed reviews but the most of the reviews I’ve seen are negative or mixed-negative. The mixed reviews often say something along the lines of “better than Batman V Superman but that was a very low bar.”

This Entertainment Weekly compilation (http://ew.com/movies/2017/11/15/justice-league-reviews/) should give people a representive sample of the reviews. The bottom line is there are very few reviews that place this film anywhere near the level of Wonder Woman or just about any of the Marvel films.

I look forward to reading your review. It will have to be really positive to convince me to see this movie in a theater. Otherwise, I’ll be saving my dough.

[JasonEvans]

I look forward to reading your review. It will have to be really positive to convince me to see this movie in a theater. Otherwise, I’ll be saving my dough.

My review is a ways off, probably close to a week. Both of my sons are now off at college. I always, always, always see superhero movies with them. It has been that way for a looooong time. So, when travel plans forced me to miss the Thor screening and Justice League fell on the same night as Suke-MSU, I made up my mind to see both of these with my sons over the Thanksgiving break. Some things are more important than seeing the movie early (and not paying to see it) :)

-Jason "you are right that I only picked the good reviews... my critic friends who saw it all say it is ok, but not great. Good action, funny moments, but the plot is sorta nonsense and the villain is weak" Evans

[bluedag]

You know, I feel awful that no one has noted this yet, but Bluedag voted for 5 films. I think he/she deserves much praise for successfully doing that in this contest.

It is worth noting that one of his/her picks is "field" and it is entirely possible he/she believes that Dunkirk is eligible for field consideration.


For those who don't always read directions, at least learn from your mistakes. Thanks for the praise!:cool:

[Wander]

First, we can all agree that you definitely made the right choice.

Second, one of us is guilty of cherry picking :D. There are a few positive reviews and a larger group of mixed reviews but the most of the reviews I’ve seen are negative or mixed-negative. The mixed reviews often say something along the lines of “better than Batman V Superman but that was a very low bar.”

This Entertainment Weekly compilation (http://ew.com/movies/2017/11/15/justice-league-reviews/) should give people a representive sample of the reviews. The bottom line is there are very few reviews that place this film anywhere near the level of Wonder Woman or just about any of the Marvel films.

I look forward to reading your review. It will have to be really positive to convince me to see this movie in a theater. Otherwise, I’ll be saving my dough.

This is the most unsurprising movie-related thing ever. The trailers don't even attempt to paint it as a good movie and instead mostly just depict explosions. I feel like people panicked too much after Man of Steel. It wasn't great, but it wasn't awful, and I think got the basic idea right that DC's territory should be attempts at making "serious" superhero movies like the Nolan Batman trilogy. It needed tweaking, not an attempt to be sort of Marvel, but sort of not, with immediate Avengers-esque movies and awkward attempts at one-line humor.

[JasonEvans]

This is the most unsurprising movie-related thing ever. The trailers don't even attempt to paint it as a good movie and instead mostly just depict explosions. I feel like people panicked too much after Man of Steel. It wasn't great, but it wasn't awful, and I think got the basic idea right that DC's territory should be attempts at making "serious" superhero movies like the Nolan Batman trilogy. It needed tweaking, not an attempt to be sort of Marvel, but sort of not, with immediate Avengers-esque movies and awkward attempts at one-line humor.

I could not agree more with this assessment of MoS. I actually really dug the first half of the movie, up until Zod arrived and then it just went badly off the rails. The concluding 30 minutes, with the two planetary engineering spaceships and the destructive final battle with Zod were downright awful.

But, much of the movie really worked and it was not a bad start to a new DCEU. The smart move would have been to slowly build the characters and the team -- do Wonder Woman and maybe an Aquaman or Flash film next. Mix in little bits of Superman and especially Batman in a few key moments of those films and now your universe is really growing. Instead, they hurled into a shoddy BvS (complete with the "Martha" nonsense bringing the heroes together) and threw Wonder Woman into that film out of nowhere.

I'm pretty sure at this point that the DCEU is darn close to hopelessly broken, even if Justice League is decent (but clearly not great). I think DC should just make solo hero movies for a while and then try to mix them together at a later date. Oh and most importantly, don't let Zach Snyder (a man who has made exactly one good film in his entire career) anywhere near your franchise ever again.

-Jason "I give no better than 50-50 odds that we see Ben Affleck in the Batman suit ever again" Evans

[BD80]

I... I think DC should just make solo hero movies for a while and then try to mix them together at a later date. Oh and most importantly, don't let Zach Snyder (a man who has made exactly one good film in his entire career) anywhere near your franchise ever again.

-Jason "I give no better than 50-50 odds that we see Ben Affleck in the Batman suit ever again" Evans

Agree to a point.

They should find a way to put Wonder Woman in every film they make.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Rotten Tomatoes, for some reason, has not yet put up a critic score, but Metacritic has it at 51, which is decidedly mixed, but at least better than the 40 that was Suicide Squad or 44 that was BvS.


Maybe because they have figured out a way to cash in on it being "an event". Just noticed this on their page.


Follow Rotten Tomatoes See It/Skip It for the Tomatometer score reveal at 12:01am ET!

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/justice_league_2017

[bjornolf]

Maybe because they have figured out a way to cash in on it being "an event". Just noticed this on their page.



https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/justice_league_2017

Somebody on the radio said they were going to start to "reveal" them on their internet show, to get people to watch.

[JasonEvans]

Somebody on the radio said they were going to start to "reveal" them on their internet show, to get people to watch.

The RT number is in... 48%.

Not good... better than the mid-20s numbers that Suicide and BvS got, but nowhere near Wonder Woman or even the bad movies in the Marvel Universe (Thor: The Dark World 66% and Incredible Hulk 67%).

[PackMan97]

The RT number is in... 48%.

Not good... better than the mid-20s numbers that Suicide and BvS got, but nowhere near Wonder Woman or even the bad movies in the Marvel Universe (Thor: The Dark World 66% and Incredible Hulk 67%).

...and Marvel took a look at those numbers and said, "Let's do something different with these two duds" and made Thor III a buddy comedy that is at 92%/90%! Anyone think the folks running DC are capable of pivoting like that?

[BD80]

...and Marvel took a look at those numbers and said, "Let's do something different with these two duds" and made Thor III a buddy comedy that is at 92%/90%! Anyone think the folks running DC are capable of pivoting like that?

At the DC nation, it is more of a swirl than a pivot ...

[luburch]

MoviePass came in yesterday. Plan on seeing Thor tonight, Murder on the Orient Express on Sunday, and Justice League sometime next week. Making the most of this $10 a month!

[bcsu]

MoviePass came in yesterday. Plan on seeing Thor tonight, Murder on the Orient Express on Sunday, and Justice League sometime next week. Making the most of this $10 a month!

I see on their homepage that they now have a promotional rate of $89.95 for the first year, and then $9.95 thereafter...

[Olympic Fan]

Not sure why anybody at DC is upset by poor reviews.

Suicide Squad was an awful 26 percent of RT ... it made $325 million domestic and $745 million internationally

Batman vs. Superman was almost as bad -- 27 percent RT .. it made $330 million domestic and $873 million internationally

Wonder Woman got a 92 RT -- and made less internationally than BvsS (it was close $821 million internationally).

Why should they change anything. Justice League is getting lousy reviews, but that won't stop it from earning well over $300 million domestically and close to a billion internationally

[JasonEvans]

Not sure why anybody at DC is upset by poor reviews.

Suicide Squad was an awful 26 percent of RT ... it made $325 million domestic and $745 million internationally

Batman vs. Superman was almost as bad -- 27 percent RT .. it made $330 million domestic and $873 million internationally

Wonder Woman got a 92 RT -- and made less internationally than BvsS (it was close $821 million internationally).

Why should they change anything. Justice League is getting lousy reviews, but that won't stop it from earning well over $300 million domestically and close to a billion internationally

Well, when you consider that Avengers ($1.5 bil), Age of Ultron ($1.4 bil), Iron Man 3 ($1.2 bil), and Civil War ($1.15 bil) all made well over a billion dollars worldwide, it makes some of the DC numbers look just so-so by comparison. I think Justice League has a decent shot at making a billion dollars, but it will be close. By comparison, most folks are expecting Infinity War to easily pass $1.5 bil worldwide.

-Jason "also, Warner knows that the good will they have with the DCEU is swiftly wearing out. Audiences are going to stop paying to see the films unless DC/WB start making the movies better" Evans

[PackMan97]

What JasonEvans said.

Not to mention, all of the Marvel properties show increasing box offices.

Ragnarok will grow more than Dark World which grossed more than Thor.
Iron Man 3 grossed more than Iron Man 2 which grossed more than Iron Man.
Civil War grossed more than Winter Soldier which gross more than Captain America.
Guardians 2 grossed more than Guardians.

Only exception is Avengers, whiere the original grossed $1.5 vs $1.4 for Ultron.

[YmoBeThere]

For such a comparison, it may be useful to adjust totals by inflation. Box Office Mojo does this for you.

[PackMan97]

For such a comparison, it may be useful to adjust totals by inflation. Box Office Mojo does this for you.

Yes, that is who I used for my data.

[Doria]

The RT number is in... 48%.

Not good... better than the mid-20s numbers that Suicide and BvS got, but nowhere near Wonder Woman or even the bad movies in the Marvel Universe (Thor: The Dark World 66% and Incredible Hulk 67%).

Wow, I think that’s way harsh. I mean, I realize I’m exactly the target audience, but I really enjoyed myself, despite seeing it at the premiere, and thus sitting really far away (could barely hear some of the dialogue). But it’s definitely better than say Thor: The Dark World, which I’m pretty sure is my least favorite Marvel superhero movie.

Now, I think that someone who isn’t as familiar with the characters is likely to have a wholly justifiably different reaction. And I agree that Steppenwolf is underwhelming. But is he really tons more underwhelming than every Marvel villain except Loki and maybe Hela? At least they didn’t bait and switch him like Marvel did with Zemo. I mean, he’s exactly as underwhelming as he is in the comics, not disappointingly underwhelming, like Red Skull, Ultron, the Abomination, etc.

I am not saying it’s a perfect movie (I doubt anyone is saying that). But it’s a reasonably fun movie, and at least it gets Superman right! That automatically gets it a step up from MoS, in my book. Is the humor sort of juvenile? Sure, but not inappropriately so, given the target audience. I guess if you like the characters and don’t care much about the action/plot, it’s a pretty good movie that lets you see some classic heroes.

The plot is 100% ludicrous, but eh, I think a lot of the Fourth World is likewise, so I guess it didn’t bother me that much. I liked the brief history scenes we got, though they did seem like outtakes from Lord of the Rings. It makes me little sad DC didn’t choose to go about their universe the same way Marvel did, so that we could have gotten a little world-building. If you aren’t keen on liking the DC movies, I doubt this will change your mind, but I got a real kick out of seeing some of my favorite characters interacting.

ETA: I’m seeing it again at a normal screening tomorrow, so maybe I’ll feel differently, when I can hear all the dialogue.

[luburch]

Caught Thor last night. Thought it was alright. Certainly the best of the Thor movies, but that isn't saying much. Seems like they tried to mimic Guardians a little too much. Also, just once, I'd like for the entire universe not to be on the line in a superhero movie.

It was still solid - 6.5 or a 7 out of 10.

[IrishDevil]

Caught Thor last night. Thought it was alright. Certainly the best of the Thor movies, but that isn't saying much. Seems like they tried to mimic Guardians a little too much. Also, just once, I'd like for the entire universe not to be on the line in a superhero movie.

It was still solid - 6.5 or a 7 out of 10.

I haven't seen Thor yet, but I hear what you are saying. The general maxim, though, is the higher the stakes, the greater audience investment in the outcome. Few movie-goers will invest the time and money to watch a 150 minute movie where the "problem" involved is not too serious or difficult to solve; it's less exciting and interesting and leaves the audience with no answer to the question "so what?" after credits roll.

The problem is, however, that this is also describes the risk of constant super-high stakes: resolution without serious repercussions can feel too neat, easy, and unearned, and thus create a less fulfilling movie for the audience - "so what?" all over again. I think Marvel has used the MCU to great effect in spreading the repercussions across their universe of movies, so that what seems like a neat resolution, and thus possibly less fulfilling in the context of the single movie, can actually have far reaching consequences beyond just that movie. The fallout of the two Avengers movies and Captain America 2 and, to a lesser extent, 3, are good examples of how cataclysmic problems, even when neatly resolved in-movie, can have greater, long-lasting and permanent consequences that better match the high stakes.

The shared universe is actually a really elegant solution to many of the problems of superhero movies - what are the real stakes when no hero seems in genuine danger of true injury or death, how many times must I watch re-skinnings of the same basic story, just with different people and geography, isn't this movie with a talking raccoon and a "talking" tree just silly, etc.

A shared universe allows stories that offer true consequences to have those consequences affect years of movies down the road, making the high stakes feel less cheap and doing true some world-building to ground the sillier aspects of comic book movies. It keeps the smaller, neatly resolved conflicts tied a larger, constantly-building Looming Conflict, making sure there are actually loose ends, and even small failures, in those seemingly neat resolutions. A shared universe makes each movie a movement in a larger story and suddenly its (more) okay to watch seven different origin stories, because it's all building up. Sure, at the outset it operates like a house of cards, where the initial building blocks feel precarious enough to topple the enterprise-level effort (cough cough DC cough), but if you do it well at the beginning, that success allows you to survive the occasional near-dud (e.g., Thor 2).

Looking forward to seeing Thor, or any movie in theaters, when the newborn Boss grants me leave.

[Wander]

I haven't seen Thor yet, but I hear what you are saying. The general maxim, though, is the higher the stakes, the greater audience investment in the outcome.

Maybe I'm the exception, but my two favorite MCU movies were Civil War and Spider-man Homecoming, which had the lowest stakes as far as end-of-the-world scenarios are concerned.

[IrishDevil]

Maybe I'm the exception, but my two favorite MCU movies were Civil War and Spider-man Homecoming, which had the lowest stakes as far as end-of-the-world scenarios are concerned.

I also enjoyed those movies, and absolutely, part of what made them so enjoyable was how personal they made the stakes feel. When you look at it, though, they're both life-and-death stakes, one involving the planned theft and distribution of enough alien superweapons to more or less end life on Earth as we know it, and the other where two fan favs nearly killed each other and did ostensibly tear apart the force that is holding together life on Earth as we know it. I say "ostensibly" because I felt the immediate rapprochement of Stark and Cap at the end of Civil War, while refilling the warm-and-fuzzy-ometer with the knowledge that both our heroes are still in fact good guys who can get past their differences to do more good guy things together, completely undercut the stakes. They were never going to kill each other - Marvel's not that dumb - so their tearing the avengers asunder was the Big Bad Ending, which happened . . . only to un-happen almost immediately.

I think I agree with you when I say that the most successful comic book movies are the ones that do not sacrifice character focus and relatable, meaningful, personal stakes for the big spectacle, the latter of which is rather empty without the former. Somewhere, Zach Snyder's ears are burning.

[BattierD12]

It's been tough being a DC fan over the past few years. The Dark Knight Trilogy was incredible. Man of Steel was good with untapped potential. Warner Brothers then rushed the series, resulting in Batman vs. Superman occurring way too early in the sequence, with the theatrical edition being "eh" and the uncut edition being marginally better. It deserved the criticism. It was a deconstructed and rushed vision of Batman and Superman that felt unearned in many areas. Thankfully, Wonder Woman was a saving grace earlier this year. But always, we have to be in Marvel's shadow as of late.

I grew up loving Superman. There's videos of me at 2 years old trying to fly around in my Superman pajamas. My childhood was the Batman and Superman Animated Series followed by Justice league and Justice League unlimited. I loved it all. So now the movie I've been waiting for a long time comes, and the critics have been throwing it in the trash. I went in tonight expecting the worst. 37% on Rotten Tomatoes. "Man this is going to be rough."

But now I'm pissed. This movie is not even close to 37%. It's not an 80%+ movie, but the amount of criticism and vitriol leveled against it is unjust (no pun intended). This was a fun movie. It's no masterpiece, and it's a team up movie 5 years after the original Avengers kicked that off, but this movie was more enjoyable than some of the Marvel movies out there with much higher RT scores. (And yes, I am a DC fan, but I still love Marvel movies. Winter Soldier, Iron Man, Guardians of the Galaxy are some of the best movies out there.) I was actually dreading this movie causing the downfall of DCEU, but this does not deserve that. It introduced the new characters well, tied in some things with previous movies, and lightened the mood a bit to match Marvel (plus finally having post-credit scenes, which were incredible btw). The interplay between the team was great and what I always envisioned a movie version of the justice league cartoon being. The CGI was overdone and not on par with some recent cinematic efforts, but unfortunately WB doesn't have access to ILM like Disney/Marvel does. Zack Snyder needs to learn to use natural environments better and clean up some quick scene shifts (although I for one will not miss Zack Snyder in future efforts).

I am biased to DC, but I am fair in criticizing the movies too. This movie is fun and if it were under the Marvel name would have gotten a 60-70% RT score. (Sue me for implying a media bias)

I'm glad DC is slowing things down to regroup and have Geoff Johns exert more control in the same vein as Kevin Feige. The next movie is Aquaman December 2018 followed by Shazam, WW2 in 2019. I would love to see Henry Cavill get a true MOS2 while Matt Reeves builds up his Batman trilogy. Slow down on these side projects that keep popping up (Gotham City Sirens, Joker solo movie, etc) and focus on building the heroes for now in solo movies. And man, based on one of post credits scenes of Justice League, the potential sequel would be great.

tl;dr: Justice League was fun, not perfect, but much, much better than most of these reviews would make you think. I'm pissed off at these RT scores.

[JasonEvans]

Uh-oh...

Early reports are that Justice League is going to make less than $100 million it’s opening weekend. Most of the pre-release tracking had it closer to 110 or 115 million dollars. Now, there is some evidence that The word-of-mouth will be considerably better than on previous DC films, which may help it to have longer legs than some of the other DC movies. But, there is now a very real possibility that this film only makes about $250 million or so. I still think it ends up closer to $300 mil, but it is not the mortal lock it had been a few days ago.

[Doria]

Well, the bad impressions of the earlier movies certainly were going to hurt it, no matter what (Wonder Woman, though it obviously had links to current continuity, was by and large self-contained). I mean, I actually enjoyed Batman v Superman the first time, but I tried to rewatch it on Blu-ray and could barely finish it... By contrast, I caught JL again last night, and it was still very entertaining.

While the criticism of Steppenwolf definitely holds up the second time, the action scenes have some nifty choreography and don’t drag on for too long (no MoS syndrome). And I thoroughly enjoyed the score, too. That may seem like faint praise, but I’m a big fan of soundtracks; maybe it’s because I can’t listen to music with words while I work, so I tend to listen to soundtracks and video game music.

Wander, I agree with your stakes/movie opinion. I thought Wonder Woman did a pretty good job of threading the needle between purely personal versus end of the world. I mean, the final fight in WW was terrible as a fight, but I liked the fact that even though the hero wins, the viewer knows that it’s a pretty short victory. It’s actually a superior revisiting of the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (or, as I like to call it, LEG) ending. Victory over war, etc., but thoroughly temporary.

But yeah, “end of the world” is a very nebulous concept. If they go ahead with JL2 at some point with Darkseid, I hope they frame the conflict as a personal take on the Anti-Life Equation, showing what it means for actual characters we care about. Okay, that is officially my nerd quotient for the day! Off to get some work done... on... uh, anime... D’oh!

[bigperm13]

I dug JL quite a bit. The plot was thin and Steppenwolf was merely a stepping stone, a reason to unite the league. And lead to JL2 where it will get real. DC has timelined these movies poorly and where Marvel really dominates and they never would have made this movie without Aquaman and Flash films preceding it. You could tell there was definitely a Whedon's touch to this movie and I liked the lightened mood. Marvel, DC, no matter to me. I just like movies and I liked this one. PS - RT is still hard for me to check after seeing Baby Driver only get an 87 audience rating.

[davekay1971]

According to boxofficemojo.com, JL is going to end up at about $96M for the weekend, under the low end of it's expectations (most estimates I saw were in the $115-120M range). The movie also got at B+ cinemascore, which is good but not great. So now it comes down to: what kind of multiplier will it get? MoS was about 2.4x, and I think BvS was in the same range. That would put the movie at about $230-250M total domestic, which would be plenty for a winter top 5. But in the same article boxofficemojo is suggesting a final domestic tally more like $200M, which could make a top 5 finish interesting.

Wonder, on the other hand, got a (to me) shocking $27M and an A+ cinemascore. If the movie also garners major awards attention, it could have a very, very long run. Every once in a while we see a movie just strike the right kind of nerve with audiences and a modest opening ends up with a huge box office run. This movie's performance will be worth watching over the duration of the contest.

[CameronBornAndBred]

JS is still a lock. It might be 5th place, but it's still a lock.

Having said that, I'll say JS comes in 4th. (Because there aren't many more numbers that make this contest interesting.) I think my Pixar pick will sneak into 3rd.

[Matches]

But now I'm pissed. This movie is not even close to 37%. It's not an 80%+ movie, but the amount of criticism and vitriol leveled against it is unjust (no pun intended). This was a fun movie. It's no masterpiece, and it's a team up movie 5 years after the original Avengers kicked that off, but this movie was more enjoyable than some of the Marvel movies out there with much higher RT scores.

I am biased to DC, but I am fair in criticizing the movies too. This movie is fun and if it were under the Marvel name would have gotten a 60-70% RT score. (Sue me for implying a media bias)



Totally agree, and I think the media bias is real. Not sure why it exists but if this movie had "Marvel" in the credits the reviews would be better. It's flawed, no doubt, but it's a fun ride with interesting characters, good acting, pretty good production, a villain who is mediocre but serves the purpose of bringing together the heroes. I liked it better than Spider-Man or Suicide Squad, not as much as Wonder Woman or Civil War.

The theater I went to was about 4/5th empty, though, on a Sunday afternoon of opening weekend. Box office is going to end up being dismal for this one.

[JasonEvans]

Totally agree, and I think the media bias is real. Not sure why it exists but if this movie had "Marvel" in the credits the reviews would be better. It's flawed, no doubt, but it's a fun ride with interesting characters, good acting, pretty good production, a villain who is mediocre but serves the purpose of bringing together the heroes. I liked it better than Spider-Man or Suicide Squad, not as much as Wonder Woman or Civil War.

The theater I went to was about 4/5th empty, though, on a Sunday afternoon of opening weekend. Box office is going to end up being dismal for this one.

In fairness, Marvel has most assuredly earned the benefit of the doubt from critics and audiences while DC has not. The DCEU has been planned poorly and executed even worse. So, DC has to really earn critical and audience for for their films. I'm fine with that as punishment for how they took a sure thing and turned it into a real mess. I mean, think about the fact that the DCEU was launched in the wake of the Christopher Nolan's 3 outstanding Dark Knight films. Superman and Batman are the two most famous comic book heroes of all time. How did DC screw this up so much?!?! It took hard work and they deserve the long, difficult uphill climb that awaits them if they hope to have good will from audiences and critics.

-Jason "Wonder Woman was a huge hit... if it is quality, DC films will do fine but it is clear that sub-par won't make a mint for them any longer... that's a good thing" Evans

[FerryFor50]

In fairness, Marvel has most assuredly earned the benefit of the doubt from critics and audiences while DC has not. The DCEU has been planned poorly and executed even worse. So, DC has to really earn critical and audience for for their films. I'm fine with that as punishment for how they took a sure thing and turned it into a real mess. I mean, think about the fact that the DCEU was launched in the wake of the Christopher Nolan's 3 outstanding Dark Knight films. Superman and Batman are the two most famous comic book heroes of all time. How did DC screw this up so much?!?! It took hard work and they deserve the long, difficult uphill climb that awaits them if they hope to have good will from audiences and critics.

-Jason "Wonder Woman was a huge hit... if it is quality, DC films will do fine but it is clear that sub-par won't make a mint for them any longer... that's a good thing" Evans

Here are the problems with Justice League/DC team up films as compared to Marvel films:

Marvel spent YEARS building up their primary characters with standalone films. Before the Avengers ever came out we had:

Iron Man (2008)
The Incredible Hulk (2008)
Iron Man 2 (2010)
Thor (2011)
Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)

Those movies were fun and most were decent quality. They filled a gap of fun superhero films. At the same time, DC was still re-hashing Batman with Christopher Nolan, while shelving Superman for a while after the pretty poor reboot in 2006 (Superman Returns). While the Batman movies made a lot of money and were good films, they weren't a part of the DC timeline as we know it today. DC also tried to branch out with Green Lantern, but that was awful. So they scrapped sequels to that.

Once DC saw how much $$ Marvel was raking in after Avengers, they finally started to get serious about creating the long rumored, long desired Justice League film. But they didn't have a plan. Marvel had their films laid out years in advance and have done an excellent job of introducing a new character in a more minor role (think Black Panther in Marvel Civil War) and then fleshing them out more in their own film.

DC kind of did the reverse; they re-invented the Batman timeline while including Superman and Wonder Woman in the same movie. Superman had Man of Steel, but you can't really re-invent Batman while sharing the screen with Superman. DC had the right idea with Wonder Woman, however. They gave her a smaller role in BvS and then followed it up with an excellent solo movie.

The next film in the DCEU was Justice League, where we now have:

- A decently developed Wonder Woman character who is generally liked by audiences
- A poorly developed Batman with a new actor who polarized audiences a bit (also, Bat-fatigue)
- Superman, who wasn't really well developed despite two movies, who was now dead. I won't spoil JL for anyone, but I wasn't keen on how they handled his return.
- Flash, Aquaman and Cyborg, who all came out of NOWHERE. They kind of tried to develop these characters, but there wasn't enough time.

In Avengers, they had one or two flagship movies for most of the major characters in the bag already, while the characters that didn't really get solo movies were pretty lesser known, like Black Widow and Hawkeye.

JL characters like Flash and Aquaman are pretty iconic and well established and needed their own movies before JL. Cyborg isn't as well know, but if you're going to make him such a key part of the plot of JL, you need to flesh him out more. The most we know about any of those characters from the films were a few folders on a disk drive.

DC will eventually start to get better as we get to know the characters more, but ONLY if they maintain continuity and consistency of the cast. If we start changing actors/actresses too soon, they're done. Right now, they're playing catch up with Marvel and are taking shortcuts to do it.

I do have concerns, however, about where I see this storyline going. They tried to be lighter and add more humor to this one, which kind of didn't fit with the apocalyptic imagery. If they're taking this the route I think they are, then they're going to get even darker. I've seen hints of it in BvS (Barry visiting Bruce in a dream/time travel, warning about Lois) and in JL.

[left_hook_lacey]

According to boxofficemojo.com, JL is going to end up at about $96M for the weekend, under the low end of it's expectations (most estimates I saw were in the $115-120M range). The movie also got at B+ cinemascore, which is good but not great. So now it comes down to: what kind of multiplier will it get? MoS was about 2.4x, and I think BvS was in the same range. That would put the movie at about $230-250M total domestic, which would be plenty for a winter top 5. But in the same article boxofficemojo is suggesting a final domestic tally more like $200M, which could make a top 5 finish interesting.

Wonder, on the other hand, got a (to me) shocking $27M and an A+ cinemascore. If the movie also garners major awards attention, it could have a very, very long run. Every once in a while we see a movie just strike the right kind of nerve with audiences and a modest opening ends up with a huge box office run. This movie's performance will be worth watching over the duration of the contest.

Lots of buzz and word of mouth going on about Wonder in my little corner of the world. When I got home from work Friday, I was bombarded at the door by 2 daughters and mom that wanted to go see it. Then, at a family gathering at my Grandmothers Sunday, several different conversations mentioned it as some had seen it and almost cried talking about it. I got to work this morning and there was water cooler talk about how I "had" to see this movie. Could be an interesting run indeed.

[Doria]

I'm honestly shocked by Wonder. Now, I will admit this is mostly a function of my own biases and preferences, but just based on trailers, that is not a film I would--off the cuff, and not influenced by a group--ever choose to see. This has nothing to do with the quality, just my perception of the movie solely going off of the trailer. Interesting.

[left_hook_lacey]

I'm honestly shocked by Wonder. Now, I will admit this is mostly a function of my own biases and preferences, but just based on trailers, that is not a film I would--off the cuff, and not influenced by a group--ever choose to see. This has nothing to do with the quality, just my perception of the movie solely going off of the trailer. Interesting.

That's me as well. I vetoed going to see it, not because I think it wouldn't be a good movie, it's just not the type of movie I want to pay for 5 people to go see on a Friday night. I'd rather see something like a suspense/thriller, or take the kids to see something like Coco. I don't want to pay to go feel sorrow for a cute kid for 2hrs and end up shedding tears in public. I'd rather do that in the comfort of my own home on a Sunday night type thing.

[Matches]

JL characters like Flash and Aquaman are pretty iconic and well established and needed their own movies before JL. Cyborg isn't as well know, but if you're going to make him such a key part of the plot of JL, you need to flesh him out more. The most we know about any of those characters from the films were a few folders on a disk drive.

DC will eventually start to get better as we get to know the characters more, but ONLY if they maintain continuity and consistency of the cast. If we start changing actors/actresses too soon, they're done. Right now, they're playing catch up with Marvel and are taking shortcuts to do it.

I do have concerns, however, about where I see this storyline going. They tried to be lighter and add more humor to this one, which kind of didn't fit with the apocalyptic imagery. If they're taking this the route I think they are, then they're going to get even darker. I've seen hints of it in BvS (Barry visiting Bruce in a dream/time travel, warning about Lois) and in JL.

See, I'd agree with you that pretty much everyone knows who Flash and Aquaman are already, and to me that's why they *didn't* really need solo movies before appearing in JL. They're already known commodities, and there's a Flash TV show on the air right now as well. (Though I do think the JL film could have used more Aquaman and Mera.) Cyborg - maybe - he's not as well-known, but neither was Hawkeye really.

Marvel did an excellent job of riding the momentum of successful movies into the Avengers tentpole (although even that is a little overstated - the Iron Man films were huge, the others were successful but not runaway hits), whereas DC definitely has had fits and starts and misfires. I'd suggest the overly dark/ apocalyptic imagery was part of the problem (esp. in the Superman movies), and that moving away from that is a needed course correction.

Affleck is an okay Batman but they could swap him out without it being a big deal. I'm iffy on Cavill as Superman too. Godot as WW is frickin' perfect casting and they must keep her forever - she's as perfect for WW as RDJr is for Tony Stark.

[davekay1971]

she's as perfect for WW as RDJr is for Tony Stark.

This may be one of big key points for the Marvel vs DCEU issue. In 2008, Marvel found RDJr for Tony Stark, and you could argue that, for at least the first 8 years, the entire enterprise hinged on that. Look at the early solo-character movies without him: Thor, Hulk (one tiny scene at the end), and Captain America. As you mentioned - movies that were only decent in quality, with decent box office returns. Then put Iron Man back in the center of the mix in The Avengers, and the whole thing exploded. After Avengers, we started to see movies without Iron Man that could deliver - Guardians of the Galaxy, Cap 2...but those were GREAT movies. The less great movies (still good, but not great), were only okay in terms of box office (Thor 2, Ant-Man).

If WW had been the first DCEU movie, with Gal...maybe we'd see a better overall picture. But they centered the thing on Superman, a hero with the intrinsic flaw that he's truly invulnerable, with an actor who looks the part but has none of Robert Downey Jr's flair, and with a director who's a heck of a lot better at making things look cool than making things that are a blast to watch. Marvel's first real MCU movie was a blast of fun with a great actor perfect for the role and they could build everything around him. DC finally stumbled into their exciting actress filling an exciting role with a strong director in a really good movie...after a series of missteps and almosts

As JE said, DC is fighting to regain audience trust. A few years back, after a string of successes, Marvel rolled out a feature with a giant tree that says one word and a talking raccoon as two of its main characters and hit a home run. If they want to, at this point, put Thor and Hulk in a buddy comedy with a 1981 disco feel to the setting, make a movie about a guy who can shrink to the size of an ant starring an actor who's made a long string of forgettable romantic comedies, or take a guy known mostly for Sherlock Holmes and brainy Oscar-fodder movies and cast him as a wizard in a wild mindbender...they can do it, and we'll give it benefit of the doubt.

[FerryFor50]

See, I'd agree with you that pretty much everyone knows who Flash and Aquaman are already, and to me that's why they *didn't* really need solo movies before appearing in JL. They're already known commodities, and there's a Flash TV show on the air right now as well. (Though I do think the JL film could have used more Aquaman and Mera.) Cyborg - maybe - he's not as well-known, but neither was Hawkeye really.

Marvel did an excellent job of riding the momentum of successful movies into the Avengers tentpole (although even that is a little overstated - the Iron Man films were huge, the others were successful but not runaway hits), whereas DC definitely has had fits and starts and misfires. I'd suggest the overly dark/ apocalyptic imagery was part of the problem (esp. in the Superman movies), and that moving away from that is a needed course correction.

Affleck is an okay Batman but they could swap him out without it being a big deal. I'm iffy on Cavill as Superman too. Godot as WW is frickin' perfect casting and they must keep her forever - she's as perfect for WW as RDJr is for Tony Stark.

I'd argue that the CW/DC TV series, while cool, actually create more confusion. Unlike Marvel (Agents of SHIELD, Inhumans, etc), DC doesn't use the same timelines. They have different universes. So CW Flash has a different story than DCEU Flash.

As for Aquaman, they COMPLETELY re-invented him, so it would have been worthwhile to build his story up. Most people are used to this Aquaman, who is kinda silly:

https://seanologues.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/aquaman_opening.jpg

Granted, DC has re-imagined him over the years, but Momoa's character is vastly different. Cyborg is pretty well known within the DC universe, but moreso as a Teen Titan. I think it would have been awesome to see a Batman and Robin movie (where Dick Grayson moves on as Nightwing), a Nightwing movie, Cyborg movie and then Teen Titans, but like I said, DC had to scramble to catch up.

I would have preferred Green Lantern to Cyborg in the initial league, just because he's a flagship member. But it's a small quibble.

I am neutral on Cavill and Affleck in their roles. My main issue is that they're so overdone already that they've lost any sort of iconic feel. Iron Man, on the other hand, has ALWAYS been RDJr.

[Doria]

As a counter to the Cyborg point, many people are more current with the character because of Teen Titans/Go. The “Booyah” got the audience really buzzing at the showing last Friday. I mean, no contest that he isn’t as well known as the others, but these days I’d hardly say he’s... uh, blue beetle (either!) or anything.

[JasonEvans]

We to see Justice League with my kids last night. Prime time showing in a major city.

7826
(iPhone turns it upside down, sorry)

Can you see all the people behind us? No? Well that is because there weren’t any. A grand total of 7 people in the theater for a 10pm showing... and 3 of them were me and my boys.

This movie may be such a disaster that Warner completely reboots the DCEU... which is kinda a pity because I liked Aquaman and especially Flash plus Wonder Woman is great. If only DC knew how to tell a decent story about them. Sigh.

Jason “I’m in the I never want to see a Zack Snyder film ever again camp” Evans

[bjornolf]

If you go into photos and hit edit, then rotate the picture four times, it'll straighten it rightside up and work for this stuff.

[BD80]

If you go into photos and hit edit, then rotate the picture four times, it'll straighten it rightside up and work for this stuff.

Four?

The carolina flight attendant is nervous when visiting the cockpit and seeing a major storm directly ahead: "We better pull a 360 and get out of here!"

[Udaman]

Saw JL yesterday. Thankfully I had really low expectations. But it’s never good when walking out of a movie and saying “well, it wasn’t as awful as I thought it would be.”

What worked? WW. And the Flash. And a great scene with the lasso. That’s about it. I sort of liked the fight when Superman got back, but even that seemed forced.

What didn’t? The writing. It’s cringe worthy at times (at best). Laughable. And I didn’t really care about either Cyborg or Aquaman. And the opening fight scene with WW was too unbelievable. But really the main problem is this - Superman is simply too strong. He’s unbeatable. And that’s boring because the outcome is already known. The ONLY way to make a compelling storyline is either to make him evil (which won’t work because he can kill everyone) or make him powerless (which takes his character away). Actually, that’s not true. I really liked in Suoerman 2 way back when they made his weakness his kindness. Attack the civilians. Make him protect them which takes him out of the fight.

Also the Flash is too powerful as well. He could kill all of them but Superman. Odd how they always seem to ignore that.

Alas - will have to wait for another Marvel movie to blow me away. Thankfully one comes in February.

[PackMan97]

Saw JL yesterday. Thankfully I had really low expectations. But it’s never good when walking out of a movie and saying “well, it wasn’t as awful as I thought it would be.”

What worked? WW. And the Flash. And a great scene with the lasso. That’s about it. I sort of liked the fight when Superman got back, but even that seemed forced.

What didn’t? The writing. It’s cringe worthy at times (at best). Laughable. And I didn’t really care about either Cyborg or Aquaman. And the opening fight scene with WW was too unbelievable. But really the main problem is this - Superman is simply too strong. He’s unbeatable. And that’s boring because the outcome is already known. The ONLY way to make a compelling storyline is either to make him evil (which won’t work because he can kill everyone) or make him powerless (which takes his character away). Actually, that’s not true. I really liked in Suoerman 2 way back when they made his weakness his kindness. Attack the civilians. Make him protect them which takes him out of the fight.

Also the Flash is too powerful as well. He could kill all of them but Superman. Odd how they always seem to ignore that.

Alas - will have to wait for another Marvel movie to blow me away. Thankfully one comes in February.

That has always been Superman's problem. He's overpowered. I'm still trying to figure out how Superman v Batman was a thing. I guess Batman won because Superman didn't want to kill Bruce.

Flash can lose if he doesn't see it coming. Which makes me wonder, he's not supposed to be physically stronger is he? I mean if someone threw me 30' through the air, I'm not getting up. How can he? There is nothing special about his suit is he?

I will say I'm super excited about Black Panther, I think it's going to be the real deal.

[luburch]

Saw JL last night. It was definitely an enjoyable film. I definitely liked it better than Ultron. It's definitely not a 41/100 as the critics on RT suggest.

[bjornolf]

Four?

The carolina flight attendant is nervous when visiting the cockpit and seeing a major storm directly ahead: "We better pull a 360 and get out of here!"

Yes, four. On your phone, it's looks straight up but it's really like half a degree off straight up, and sites like DBR and facebook flip it upside down. If you only hit it twice, you'll have it upside down for real. Hitting the rotate 90 degree button locks it into the correct angle for some reason, but then you have to hit it three more times to get it straight up.

Why do people always incorrectly correct me on this site? There's just no trust in my knowledge on here. It must be my failure to expound profusely on everything I say... like Jason. 😜

[bjornolf]

That has always been Superman's problem. He's overpowered. I'm still trying to figure out how Superman v Batman was a thing. I guess Batman won because Superman didn't want to kill Bruce.

Flash can lose if he doesn't see it coming. Which makes me wonder, he's not supposed to be physically stronger is he? I mean if someone threw me 30' through the air, I'm not getting up. How can he? There is nothing special about his suit is he?

I will say I'm super excited about Black Panther, I think it's going to be the real deal.

Flash is kind of an enigma. He has to be somewhat tougher than the average guy or he'd have so many physical problems just from moving so much faster than the human body is designed to go. Try to turn a corner at his speeds and a normal person's legs would snap for example. Every time he stopped quickly he'd probably end up with whiplash or a concussion. If he punched someone running at his speeds, he'd probably kill them and break his hand.

[PackMan97]

Flash is kind of an enigma. He has to be somewhat tougher than the average guy or he'd have so many physical problems just from moving so much faster than the human body is designed to go. Try to turn a corner at his speeds and a normal person's legs would snap for example. Every time he stopped quickly he'd probably end up with whiplash or a concussion. If he punched someone running at his speeds, he'd probably kill them and break his hand.

Very good point...or running faster than a bullet....and hitting a bug! Ouch! I guess that's what the mask is for.

[BD80]

Looks like Coco is a lock:


Pixar's "Coco" is off to a strong start at the box office, finishing the weekend with an estimated five-day total of $72 million from 3,987 screens, with a three-day weekend total of $50 million. It's the third highest Thanksgiving opening behind "Frozen" ($93.4 million) and "Moana" ($82 million), ...

American audiences have enjoyed the film ... giving it an A+ on CinemaScore and ensuring that the film has the word of mouth that will make it a major draw for family audiences this holiday season ...

In second place is "Justice League," which takes in a five-day haul of $59.5 million from 4,051 screens to bring its 10-day total to $171.5 million. ... it is the first film in the DC Extended Universe to post a 10-day total of below $200 million

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/%E2%80%98coco%E2%80%99-conquers-thanksgiving-box-office-with-dollar71-million/ar-BBFHl86?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

Will Coco overtake JL?

I think Black Panther will bring in more than JL. I've got a feeling that around Dec 15 JL will start disappearing from screens.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Having said that, I'll say JS comes in 4th. (Because there aren't many more numbers that make this contest interesting.) I think my Pixar pick will sneak into 3rd.



Will Coco overtake JL?


I say yes! :rolleyes:

[Doria]

Very good point...or running faster than a bullet...and hitting a bug! Ouch! I guess that's what the mask is for.

Yeah, Flash is tougher than normal, but not really super-strong. However, his momentum means that he effectively has super-strong concussive force.

Also, he has (usually) accelerated healing. But I also was kind of surprised when just shrugged off being thrown into that wall, as well; it seemed like he should have at least been a little banged up.

The Superman point is valid. I think Batman normally gets the edge in a fight against Superman (where Superman isn't evil) because yeah, Batman will never hesitate, and Superman almost always will. But I don't think he's overpowered at all against, say, Darkseid. Frankly, even Steppenwolf seemed underpowered in JL.

I think they should have had the female furies instead of Steppenwolf. They would have been a more interesting adversary, and there would have been the chance for a more interesting fight with everyone. They also have more character (wouldn't be hard). I mean, even Kalibak would have been a better choice, if you're going to go with a full CGI adversary! He's more visually interesting, and more people are familiar with him from the Superman/JL cartoons.

[bjornolf]

Very good point...or running faster than a bullet...and hitting a bug! Ouch! I guess that's what the mask is for.

I often thought they should show him with bugs in his teeth, ala Jim Carrey, though I guess at full speed he creates kind of a doppler effect/air bubble in front of him that would toss bugs, or disintegrate them. 🐜

[DU82]

Very good point...or running faster than a bullet...and hitting a bug! Ouch! I guess that's what the mask is for.

In the comics, it’s because of the Speed Force Aura — an invisible protective barrier that shields him from crazy amounts of friction, impacts at super speed, and acceleration that would almost definitely kill him and anyone he’s carrying. (That's what 60+ years of comics history and writers that try to provide explanations for issues like this. I remember the aura being introduced early in the Barry Allen Flash's storyline, which would put it sometime in the mid-late '50s. And no, I didn't read them retroactively until the '70s!)

[nmduke2001]

As we enter the last day to vote, I thought the procrastinators would appreciate knowing that Coco has an advantage that I haven't seen mentioned: it will be accompanied with a 20 minute short of Josh Gad's Olaf from Frozen learning about Christmas customs. Kristen Bell and Idina Manzel lend their voices in cameos.

Even a 20 minute "sequel" of Frozen will bring in lots of kids, probably multiple times, as parents dump their kids at the movies while they shop. The Christmas theme will add to the box office and defray some of the competition that The Star will offer with respect to animated films over the same time frame.

So the "Frozen" short is not going over well. Not really hurting "Coco" but people are not happy about waiting over 40 minutes (if you include ads, previews and then the short) to see the actual movie they paid to see. That's a long time for a little kid to keep their attention.

http://www.businessinsider.com/frozen-short-movie-coco-disney-pixar-2017-11

[PackMan97]

So the "Frozen" short is not going over well. Not really hurting "Coco" but people are not happy about waiting over 40 minutes (if you include ads, previews and then the short) to see the actual movie they paid to see. That's a long time for a little kid to keep their attention.

http://www.businessinsider.com/frozen-short-movie-coco-disney-pixar-2017-11

Wonder if it will cut down on repeat viewings? That's pretty key to having long legs.

[cato]

So the "Frozen" short is not going over well. Not really hurting "Coco" but people are not happy about waiting over 40 minutes (if you include ads, previews and then the short) to see the actual movie they paid to see. That's a long time for a little kid to keep their attention.

http://www.businessinsider.com/frozen-short-movie-coco-disney-pixar-2017-11

The Twitter comments that seemed to be the backbone of that piece sure looks like a bunch of grumpy Frozen haters grumping about being grumpy.

Do kids and their parents care about this? You know — the main audience?

[Matches]

In the comics, it’s because of the Speed Force Aura — an invisible protective barrier that shields him from crazy amounts of friction, impacts at super speed, and acceleration that would almost definitely kill him and anyone he’s carrying. (That's what 60+ years of comics history and writers that try to provide explanations for issues like this. I remember the aura being introduced early in the Barry Allen Flash's storyline, which would put it sometime in the mid-late '50s. And no, I didn't read them retroactively until the '70s!)

The Speed Force was mentioned in the movie too, and it's a big element on the TV show. Essentially it's an all-purpose magical explanation for how the Flash is able to do things that are physically impossible. The point about him getting bugs in his mouth is a funny one, but it's one of those conceits of the genre you sort of have to accept in order to enjoy superheroes - kind of like why the Batmobile never gets stuck in traffic, Wonder Woman never forgets where she parked the invisible plane, or Spider-Man doesn't stick to the inside of his suit rather than walls. :)

BTW Wonder is pretty good. I saw it with my daughter over the weekend. My only quibble is that the kid is too cute. He looks different but he's actually a really cute kid, not the monstrosity that the script wants him to be.

[Olympic Fan]

BTW Wonder is pretty good. I saw it with my daughter over the weekend. My only quibble is that the kid is too cute. He looks different but he's actually a really cute kid, not the monstrosity that the script wants him to be.

Just curious ... I haven't need Wonder, just the TV ads.

How is this film any different from the 1985 Mask, with Eric Stoltz as a deformed teenager, trying to live a normal life with the help of his loving and compassionate Mom (Cher)?

From the plot summary for Mask from the IMDB:

Rusty Dennis is the mother of Rocky, a seriously deformed but extremely intelligent and emotionally warm teenager. Rusty is a no-nonsense mother whose wild lifestyle is often at odds with her tenderness and protectiveness towards Rocky. She is determined that Rocky be given the same chances and happiness that everyone else takes for granted.

Great cast -- in addition to Stoltz and Cher, there is also Sam Elliott and Laura Dern (as Rocky's love interest). Directed by Pete Bogdanovich

As from the fact that the deformed kid in Wonder is a bit younger than the deformed kid in Mask, it looks like pretty much the same movie to me.

[DU82]

The Speed Force was mentioned in the movie too, and it's a big element on the TV show. Essentially it's an all-purpose magical explanation for how the Flash is able to do things that are physically impossible. The point about him getting bugs in his mouth is a funny one, but it's one of those conceits of the genre you sort of have to accept in order to enjoy superheroes - kind of like why the Batmobile never gets stuck in traffic, Wonder Woman never forgets where she parked the invisible plane, or Spider-Man doesn't stick to the inside of his suit rather than walls. :)

BTW Wonder is pretty good. I saw it with my daughter over the weekend. My only quibble is that the kid is too cute. He looks different but he's actually a really cute kid, not the monstrosity that the script wants him to be.

The Speed Force concept was developed in the late '80s for the Wally West version of the Flash (Barry died during the Crisis on Infinite Earths in 1986.) It helped connect all the speedsters in the DC Universe to one another.

Another interesting aspect that they developed with the WW Flash was that he needed to eat a lot to sustain his speed. They later dropped this, but the TV show brought the concept back at the beginning (they've also seem to have dropped it as well.)

[Matches]

Just curious ... I haven't need Wonder, just the TV ads.

How is this film any different from the 1985 Mask, with Eric Stoltz as a deformed teenager, trying to live a normal life with the help of his loving and compassionate Mom (Cher)?



I haven't seen Mask so I dunno - one thing I liked about Wonder was that they let Auggie be a bit immature, as one would expect for a kid his age. There's also a good bit of attention paid to the other characters, especially his sister, and we see some of what drives and bothers them. Dunno if any of that is present in Mask but it was enjoyable in Wonder.


The Speed Force concept was developed in the late '80s for the Wally West version of the Flash (Barry died during the Crisis on Infinite Earths in 1986.) It helped connect all the speedsters in the DC Universe to one another.

Another interesting aspect that they developed with the WW Flash was that he needed to eat a lot to sustain his speed. They later dropped this, but the TV show brought the concept back at the beginning (they've also seem to have dropped it as well.)

They mention it every now and then on TV - a recent episode said something about it. The TV version of Supergirl does it too.

[JasonEvans]

For a while I have been touting The Post as a potential “field” contender.

Well, it just won the National Board of Review Best Picture, Best Actress for Streep, and Best Actor for Hanks.

[BD80]

For a while I have been touting The Post as a potential “field” contender.

Well, it just won the National Board of Review Best Picture, Best Actress for Streep, and Best Actor for Hanks.

I think I could write a screenplay about roy williams and direct the movie and win bunches of awards if Hanks and Streep lead the cast.

[cato]

I think I could write a screenplay about roy williams and direct the movie and win bunches of awards if Hanks and Streep lead the cast.

“Cheated: Banners of Disgrace”

[brevity]

I think I could write a screenplay about roy williams and direct the movie and win bunches of awards if Hanks and Streep lead the cast.

Tom Hanks as Roy Williams, dodging inquiries from the NCAA? I guess I can see that. But what would be the title? He already made a film called Catch Me If You Can.

[El_Diablo]

Tom Hanks as Roy Williams, dodging inquiries from the NCAA? I guess I can see that. But what would be the title? He already made a film called Catch Me If You Can.

Road to Perdition is taken too.

[BD80]

Tom Hanks as Roy Williams, dodging inquiries from the NCAA? I guess I can see that. But what would be the title? He already made a film called Catch Me If You Can.

Roy Story?

[PackMan97]

Tom Hanks as Roy Williams, dodging inquiries from the NCAA? I guess I can see that. But what would be the title? He already made a film called Catch Me If You Can.

I hate to do it...but the best title I can think of is....

Dirty Dancing

[PackMan97]

Amazon is having a promotion with Jumanji, Prime members can get tickets to an early preview showing.

amazon.com/Jumanji (http://amazon.com/Jumanji)

[PackMan97]

Justic League is just collapsing at the box office. Their 14th day in release has them under $2 million for a daily take for the first time.

By comparisson, Thor:Ragnarok first sub $2 million day was this monday in their 26th day as they've started to bleed theaters.

[JasonEvans]

Justic League is just collapsing at the box office. Their 14th day in release has them under $2 million for a daily take for the first time.

By comparisson, Thor:Ragnarok first sub $2 million day was this monday in their 26th day as they've started to bleed theaters.

Well, the week after Thankgiving is always a really slow on at the boxoffice. That is the convenient excuse for Justice League's performance.

Plus, in terms of our poll, it is going to either hit $200 mil or come darn close this weekend. It should do something like $18 mil this weekend and it is impossible to imagine that it does not make at least $225 mil in total boxoffice (I think it will get to at least $235 mil). That's going to be enough to make our top 5... though not quite as easily as many had expected.

I'm somewhat concerned about Coco. It it going to need real legs to get to $200+ mil. It is going to be #1 at the boxoffice this weekend and figures to make around $24-$25 mil. That will put it just a bit above $105 mil in total boxoffice after two weekends. If Ferdinand draws some of Coco's audience, it could be a nail-biter for this flick. I'm wondering if Disney will do the same thing they did for Moana and have a January "see it again!" push.

-Jason "early buzz on Jumanji is pretty good... that film could be a serious contender" Evans

[chris13]

Has anyone seen Lady Bird? Saw it tonight and it was utterly fantastic. Probably won’t be a box office smash but have to imagine it will get some Oscar buzz.

[bjornolf]

Has anyone seen Lady Bird? Saw it tonight and it was utterly fantastic. Probably won’t be a box office smash but have to imagine it will get some Oscar buzz.

Until I read the synopsis on IMDB, I assumed it was about Lady Bird Johnson.

[YmoBeThere]

Until I read the synopsis on IMDB, I assumed it was about Lady Bird Johnson.

My mother had dinner with Lady Bird Johnson in the White House...

[CameronBornAndBred]

Has anyone seen Lady Bird? Saw it tonight and it was utterly fantastic. Probably won’t be a box office smash but have to imagine it will get some Oscar buzz.

'Tis the Season (for Oscar contenders.)

According to Rottentomatoes, there will be at least five movies in theaters this week 94% or higher.

Coco 97%
Shape of Water 95%
The Disaster Artist 95%
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri 94%

And then there is Lady Bird. At 100%, and now with the record on RT of the most positive reviews for any movie ever. 185 Fresh to 0 Rotten.

Personally, I want to see The Disaster Artist. Shape of Water is supposedly Guillermo Del Toro's best since Pan's Labyrinth, but I wasn't nearly as high on that one as others, so I'll be patient and catch it on video. One day.

So the Oscars will be fun, but outside of Coco, I don't see any of those challenging our top 5.

[fidel]

Roy Story?

If God isn’t from North Carolina, then why is the sky the roof?

[luburch]

Caught a showing of Coco yesterday. Really enjoyed it. The 20 minute Frozen short beforehand though...

[CameronBornAndBred]

It was a ho-hum session at the North American box office as moviegoers feasted on post-Thanksgiving leftovers with studios not releasing any major new titles. Disney and Pixar topped the charts once again with their animated hit CocoI'm a real wanker for saying this.which grossed an estimated $26.1M in its second round dropping by a reasonable 49% from its holiday weekend launch. After 12 full days of play, the Mexican tale has banked a solid $108.7M and may be only halfway to its final destination through the holidays.

For those of us that picked it, it better be.

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/box-office-coco-repeats-at-1-over-slow-december-weekend/

[CameronBornAndBred]

Caught a showing of Coco yesterday. Really enjoyed it. The 20 minute Frozen short beforehand though...

No more Olaf.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/entertainment/olaf-frozen-short/index.html

[PackMan97]

No more Olaf.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/entertainment/olaf-frozen-short/index.html

I saw some speculation that suggested Coco wasn't getting the repeat showings Disney/Pixar wanted due to that 20 minute short. Not surprised it's gone.

[YmoBeThere]

Thor: Ragnarok: $301,156,064
Justice League: $212,060,371
Coco: $135,508,690
Wonder: $100,303,106
Murder on the Orient Express (2017): $92,707,515

Of course, the big event is Star Wars: The Last Jedi coming out this weekend. Perhaps hoping to catch younger viewers who can't see SW:TLJ due to capacity issues is Ferdinand. 3 more movies follow the next weekend and then we will have a long wait until Black Panther. We'll see if any of the field candidates make enough noise while we wait.

I don't think JL is going to hit much more than $250.

[DU82]

An interesting note about the comics movie "wars". The first five DC Universe movies have made more money than the first five Marvel movies (adjusted for inflation, which mostly benefits the Marvel totals.) The DC movies start with Man of Steel, and does not include Nolan's Batman trilogy.

https://www.cbr.com/dceu-more-successful-than-mcu/

Finally saw Justice League this weekend. I thought it was decent. It took a while to get around to getting the team together (meaning the first part was slow) but the overall movie was good. My main complaint, that matches the earlier DC films, is that the plot/characters don't follow the original source material as closely as the Marvel ones seem to do. (I like the Aquaman character and look, but to me he should be dressed in orange and green!)

I agree with some of the comments that it appears that some critics are biased towards Marvel. (Admittedly I'm a big DC fan, 16K DC comics in the closet as opposed to about 500 Marvels.)

[Matches]

1st five Marvel movies were Iron Man 1 & 2, Cap, Thor & Hulk, though. No Avengers. DC already rolled out its tent pole film.

[PackMan97]

1st five Marvel movies were Iron Man 1 & 2, Cap, Thor & Hulk, though. No Avengers. DC already rolled out its tent pole film.

Not to mention the only successful comic book movies at the time of Iron Man were the X-Men, Batman and Spiderman. Everything else was pretty much flopping. The idea of a 20 movie "extended universe" plot was ludicrous.

[CameronBornAndBred]

A synopsis of the weekend, what's coming, and what's been.
Grammarians and other easily irritated people, please read the last two paragraphs of this article. Specifically, the first sentence of each. Or should I say, finally, read them both.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/%E2%80%98coco%E2%80%99-stays-no-1-while-%E2%80%98disaster-artist%E2%80%99-performs-well-at-quiet-box-office/ar-BBGv2mn?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

[JasonEvans]

I'll say it right now... there is a non-zero chance that "15:17 to Paris" comes out of nowhere in Feburary to impact our contest.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cxw0HIhh54

I'm getting a little bit of an American Sniper vibe here and I think there could be a lot of buzz about the fact that the 3 main characters are played by the real life guys who the film is about.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm getting a little bit of an American Sniper vibe here and I think there could be a lot of buzz about the fact that the 3 main characters are played by the real life guys who the film is about.

So it's safe to assume that they each survive?

[PackMan97]

So it's safe to assume that they each survive?

A bit like watching the Titanic and wondering if it sinks?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Looking ahead to Feb, 15:17 faces another Fifty Shades movie its opening weekend, and then Black Panther the following weekend. The weekend after that? Natalie Portman in Annihilation, which looks really cool. I ain't worried about 15:17.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89OP78l9oF0

[JasonEvans]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious (https://screenrant.com/annihilation-netflix-international-distribution-paramount/)about its prospects.


by all accounts Annihilation will retain the novel’s dreamy, psychological structure. Apparently, this became an issue behind the scenes, with producer David Ellison fearing the movie was “too intellectual” for mainstream audiences. Once Ellison’s suggestions of changing the ending and making Portman’s character more likeable were overruled, Paramount instead struck a deal with Netflix; the film would get a theatrical release in the U.S., Canada and China, but be released straight to Netflix everywhere else 17 days later.

-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

[BD80]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious (https://screenrant.com/annihilation-netflix-international-distribution-paramount/)about its prospects.

"... Annihilation will retain the novel’s dreamy, psychological structure. Apparently, this became an issue behind the scenes, with producer David Ellison fearing the movie was “too intellectual” for mainstream audiences. ..."

-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

Adam Sandler movies being the "sweet spot" as appropriately "intellectual" for mainstream audiences?


BTW: there is a little film being released this week by a cartoon filmmaker that I think could challenge the top 5. Predictions are $450 million - in the first weekend.

[davekay1971]

So I think Star Wars might make our top 5 after all. Phew!

Coco, meanwhile, appears to be at no risk of having it's thunder stolen by Ferdinand, which is opening, ahem, modestly. So, if a kids animated feature is going to be represented in our Top 5, Coco is likely to be it. It's holding great, dropping 30-35% per week, even with Ferdinand opening this weekend, so very likely to make $200 million during it's run.

[brevity]

I guess I can post the first meaningful chart.

$306,375,120 Thor: Ragnarok
$220,047,000 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$219,456,347 Justice League
$150,810,896 Coco
$109,256,738 Wonder

Wonder is a Field choice. Based on my eye test, the only person who is 5-for-5 right now is Dr. Rosenrosen.


I talked myself out of voting for Coco.

Ordinarily I'd feel good about this -- Coco has been a soft #1 seed and has barely outpaced the mid-major Wonder -- but I really don't see what Field pick in this contest period will keep it out of the Top 5. Even hit Oscar bait films barely cross the $150 million threshold, and only two in the past 5 years (Lincoln and The Revenant) have topped $180 million.

[JasonEvans]

$150,810,896 Coco

Ordinarily I'd feel good about this -- Coco has been a soft #1 seed and has barely outpaced the mid-major Wonder -- but I really don't see what Field pick in this contest period will keep it out of the Top 5. Even hit Oscar bait films barely cross the $150 million threshold, and only two in the past 5 years (Lincoln and The Revenant) have topped $180 million.

I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest. Schools are getting out this week and that means there will be a huge audience for family movies over the next 10 days or so. Coco almost bested Ferdinand this past weekend, even though Ferdinand was brand new and Coco was in week #4. That tells me that the Bull flick is going to fade rapidly and Coco will be the family choice this holiday season.

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

-Jason "I do agree that there don't seem to be a lot of field candidates left... maybe The Post, but I sorta doubt that one gets enough younger viewers to be a player" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

I talked myself out of voting for Coco.
Ordinarily I'd feel good about this --.


I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest.

I thought Brevity was saying that he'd normally feel good about Coco not being a pick, in betting that a field choice would take that slot.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

[brevity]

I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest. Schools are getting out this week and that means there will be a huge audience for family movies over the next 10 days or so. Coco almost bested Ferdinand this past weekend, even though Ferdinand was brand new and Coco was in week #4. That tells me that the Bull flick is going to fade rapidly and Coco will be the family choice this holiday season.

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

-Jason "I do agree that there don't seem to be a lot of field candidates left... maybe The Post, but I sorta doubt that one gets enough younger viewers to be a player" Evans


I thought Brevity was saying that he'd normally feel good about Coco not being a pick, in betting that a field choice would take that slot.

Kind of. To clarify:

1. Coco, more or less by default, will be the biggest animated hit of the winter. I have a mild doubt that it will make $15M over the next 7 days, but I wouldn't place a wager on that even if I felt strongly either way. As a person who is not a member of the media, or even social media, I am not motivated to make strong immediate reactions to everything. Pursue your holiday pie elsewhere.

2. At the time I made the picks, I just couldn't get excited about Coco. Part of it is a Pixar bias: I like almost all of their films when I get around to seeing them, but very rarely do I feel compelled to go. Part of it was the constant but incomplete marketing. For those that haven't seen the film, after months of TV ads, can you name the main character? His name is not Coco.

3. I played a hunch that Coco, like Doctor Strange last year, is not nearly the Top 5 lock others seemed to think it was. (I was wrong about Doctor Strange, which ended at #5.) After Star Wars, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League, and Black Panther, I went with Field because none of the other options excited me either.

4. I felt some reassurance by the fact that Coco has had such underwhelming box office -- steady, but soft -- at a time when Hollywood gave up and decided to release almost nothing in its 2nd and 3rd weekends. I don't know if that feeling will last, especially if/when Coco crosses $200 million, but it's tempered anyway by an utter lack of competition, Field or otherwise.

[luburch]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

I've heard the reviews are not great and the second trailer gives away an absolutely massive plot point.

[JasonEvans]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

A chance? Sure, but the early tracking on the film is not that good. Early ticket sales and other tracking measurements are pointing to an opening of less than $20 mil for Downsizing. There's just no way it cracks the top 5 with a number like that. And, as previously mentioned, it is not getting great early reviews.

The film that I think could be a real player is Jumanji. Amazon did an early screening thing for Prime members and the buzz coming out of those screenings is good (the film is at 83% on rotten tomatoes, a good number for a action/comedy). The preview screenings reportedly sold out (http://deadline.com/2017/12/jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-amazon-prime-sneak-box-office-1202227292/) across the country, generating $2 mil of boxoffice, which indicates good demand for the film. It has a very realistic shot at making the $200 mil it will take to be the #5 film in the contest.

-Jason "I'm seeing Molly's Game tonight and The Post tomorrow... will let folks know if I think The Post has a shot in the contest after I see it" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

-Jason "we will see how this goes... even though no one was willing to bet me :( " Evans

[BD80]

... -Jason "... no one was willing to bet me :( " Evans

I'd rather get involved in a land war in Asia

[davekay1971]

I'd rather get involved in a land war in Asia

Or go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

[JasonEvans]

Coco boxoffice----

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

Too bad none of ya'll took the bet. I think it is going to be really, really close. Right now, last week is $4,056,000 through 3 days and this week is $4,069,000. I think Sunday will be my undoing as Christmas Eve may be slow at the boxoffice.

-Jason "some day I will lose a pie bet... hasn't happened yet, but someday it will" Evans

[cato]

Coco boxoffice----

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

Too bad none of ya'll took the bet. I think it is going to be really, really close. Right now, last week is $4,056,000 through 3 days and this week is $4,069,000. I think Sunday will be my undoing as Christmas Eve may be slow at the boxoffice.

-Jason "some day I will lose a pie bet... hasn't happened yet, but someday it will" Evans


Too late to take the bet? My WAG is that this comes down to Sunday. Are the stakes a pie?

[JasonEvans]

Too late to take the bet? My WAG is that this comes down to Sunday. Are the stakes a pie?

Yup, I'm not betting at this point. I really thought the mid-week numbers would be better for Coco than they have been thus far. I suspected Sunday/XMas Eve would be a struggle and to see the numbers only dead even at this point makes me pretty sure my prediction will come up a little short.

Last year, on Sat Dec 24, Moana did $1.8 mil in boxxofice compared to $5.2 mil the previous Saturday. The rest of the pre-Christmas week saw Moana outperforming its previous week results and then it tanked on Christmas Eve (when everyone is traveling and having family dinners).

-Jason "to win a pie bet with me, you gotta hop on my bold statements a bit earlier in the process ;) " Evans

[bjornolf]

Well, you never did make the stakes known when you laid down the challenge.

Plus, if you're going to lay that down, you should take it. Like you said, it's going to be close. Have some confidence, man. It's only three days in and not even a weekend yet. Public schools here didn't even get out until Thursday.

Where are those famous Jason Evans guts?? :D

[ryetales]

-Jason "to win a pie bet with me, you gotta hop on my bold statements a bit earlier in the process ;) " Evans

Sorry to miss a pie bet.

[davekay1971]

I think you're golden on this proclamation, JE. Today is the first day of no school around here. People will be travelling some today and tomorrow morning, but it's still going to be a long weekend of kiddos stuffed in houses on Saturday and Sunday and Coco is going to be an appealing option to many stir-crazy parents, especially by Sunday when travelers will have travelled, settled in, and gotten a bit bored.

[JasonEvans]

Well, you never did make the stakes known when you laid down the challenge.

Plus, if you're going to lay that down, you should take it. Like you said, it's going to be close. Have some confidence, man. It's only three days in and not even a weekend yet. Public schools here didn't even get out until Thursday.

Where are those famous Jason Evans guts?? :D

Well, one of the things about the pie bets is that I always win them because I am always supremely confident in my side of the bet. I was confident enough to make a pie bet before the first few days of the week happened... now that I know about those results I am far less confident*, hence my hesitation. It is sorta like making a wager on the Duke-BC game before the game started or when the game was at halftime.

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

[JasonEvans]

(((((Post below has been copied from the Star Wars thread)))))


I'm curious to see how well this one ultimately fares at the box office compared to the last one.

It is running far, far, far short of The Force Awakens. There is no chance TLJ matches the boxoffice of TFA. Through the first 6 days of release (Fri - Wed):
Force Awakens - $363.4 mil
Last Jedi - $278.7 mil
Rogue One - $202.2 mil

Last Jedi is selling tickets at a very similar rate to Jurassic World ($278.3 mil through 6 days), which went on to make $652 mil and is the #4 movie of all time at the boxoffice. I think Last Jedi is a mortal lock to make $600+ mil at the boxoffice (Rogue One made $532 mil), a feat only 5 films have achieved. I think $700 mil is possible, but I don't think it will top Avatar's $760 mil and won't come close to the all-time record, $936 mil of Force Awakens.

-Jason "repeat business on Last Jedi won't be nearly as strong as Force Awakens" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

Coco won't be getting my money that day, but The Last Jedi will. :cool:

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Coco won't be getting my money that day, but The Last Jedi will. :cool:

Adjust the figures!

[bjornolf]

Well, one of the things about the pie bets is that I always win them because I am always supremely confident in my side of the bet. I was confident enough to make a pie bet before the first few days of the week happened... now that I know about those results I am far less confident*, hence my hesitation. It is sorta like making a wager on the Duke-BC game before the game started or when the game was athalftime.

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

As I said, it doesn't hurt that you didn't even say it was a pie bet until you'd already backed out.

[JasonEvans]

As I said, it doesn't hurt that you didn't even say it was a pie bet until you'd already backed out.

Sorry, I was thinking pie all along but did not articulate it. Regardless, as I said I am much less confident now that the first few data points are in (though it is the Xmas eve Sunday that really scares me).

[Doria]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious (https://screenrant.com/annihilation-netflix-international-distribution-paramount/)about its prospects.



-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

I am very excited about that movie! I disliked Ex Machina, though I loved and appreciated many aspects of it, but this looks great.

I agree, though, this is not—in any way, shape, or form—a mainstream movie. I have zero idea how it got greenlit. Maybe it sneaked with all the YA dystopian films, despite not being YA at all. The concept reminds me most of “Roadside Picnic,” which I truly love, and its film version, Stalker, which recently got a Criterion release (and which I love lesserly, but that may be because it’s so... Tarkovskian {not a word, I know}).

[BD80]

... it’s so... Tarkovskian {not a word, I know}).

It is a word. I know because I saw it on the Internet.

[JasonEvans]

Coco update--

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000. . . . . Thursday 12/21 - $1,312,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

-Jason "Coco is running a cool $300k ahead of last week... unless Friday and Saturday are big, the Sunday Xmas Eve shortfall will prove my undoing" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Coco update--

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000. . . . . Thursday 12/21 - $1,312,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000 .... Friday, 12/22 - $1,854,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000


Friday was not big...

[tbyers11]

Coco update--

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000. . . . . Thursday 12/21 - $1,312,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000. . . . . . .Friday 12/22 - $1,854,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

-Jason "Coco is running a cool $300k ahead of last week... unless Friday and Saturday are big, the Sunday Xmas Eve shortfall will prove my undoing" Evans


Friday was not big...

Interestingly, the number of screens really dropped off from 3,155 to 2,111 between TH 12/21 and F 12/22 for Coco. The per screen $$$ actually went up to $878 on 12/22 from $714 on the previous Friday 12/15.

Last year Moana, only lost about 300 screens from 3,053 to 2,784 at the same point in its run.

Whether or not there is a big Christmas eve slowdown I think the reduced number of screens will doom Jason in his bet with himself :)

[PackMan97]

Whether or not there is a big Christmas eve slowdown I think the reduced number of screens will doom Jason in his bet with himself :)

So... How does one settle a pie bet with oneself? Does he have to bake a pie and not eat it? Or eat a pie he buys from the store?

[brevity]

So... How does one settle a pie bet with oneself? Does he have to bake a pie and not eat it? Or eat a pie he buys from the store?

Bake or buy a fresh Coco-nut cream pie, pack in a refrigerated shipping container, send it to yourself at 2-day ground rates, then receive it and enjoy your 2-day old pie.

$365,088,356 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$309,104,758 Thor: Ragnarok
$222,678,455 Justice League
$161,327,128 Coco
$114,958,000 Wonder

Dr. Rosenrosen still 5-for-5.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Bake or buy a fresh Coco-nut cream pie, pack in a refrigerated shipping container, send it to yourself at 2-day ground rates, then receive it and enjoy your 2-day old pie.

$365,088,356 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$309,104,758 Thor: Ragnarok
$222,678,455 Justice League
$161,327,128 Coco
$114,958,000 Wonder

Dr. Rosenrosen still 5-for-5.
Yeah but I don’t have Black Panther which I think will be my demise.

[BD80]

...
$365,088,356 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$309,104,758 Thor: Ragnarok
$222,678,455 Justice League
$161,327,128 Coco
...

Jumanji expected to have a six-day start of $61m, playing at 3,765 theaters compared to 2,111 theaters for Coco which had about $15m over the last week. Is Jumanji a playa*?



*not "beach" in Spanish.

[JasonEvans]

Jumanji expected to have a six-day start of $61m, playing at 3,765 theaters compared to 2,111 theaters for Coco which had about $15m over the last week. Is Jumanji a playa*?

Yes, I think it will be. With this opening, there is pretty much no question at all that Jumanji will make more than $150 mil. Will it catch Coco, I don't know, but I think it will at least be close.

As for Black Panther, I think it is a lock. Early tracking came on line a few days ago and it appears to be on course for an $80+ mil opening. The early tracking pegs it as being bigger than Dr. Strange. Boxoffice magazine is currently estimating it will make approx. $275 mil in its run.

-Jason "it looks like Coco did about a $12 mil week... I came up well short of last week's $15 mil. Oh well, so much for me being a prediction genius" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Looks like a slow weekend all around...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/12/25/the-last-jedis-gargantuan-151m-2nd-weekend-plunge-is-an-epic-and-hollywood-choke/amp/

[JasonEvans]

Looks like a slow weekend all around...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/12/25/the-last-jedis-gargantuan-151m-2nd-weekend-plunge-is-an-epic-and-hollywood-choke/amp/

Uhhh, that article is attempting to color things in a certain way that does not reflect the way Hollywood and boxoffice analysts see The Last Jedi. Yes, the 3-day weekend number seems terrible when compared to the opening weekend, but the fact that it was the weekend of Christmas Eve cannot be overstated (it only made $14 mil on Christmas Eve). If Last Jedi is such a boxoffice disaster, then how did it do $32.1 million on Christmas Monday, the best 2nd Monday of any film ever?

While it is clearly not going to make the money of The Force Awakens, Last Jedi still appears to be a mortal lock to be one of the 5 biggest films of all time, probably top 3. I have a hard time calling that a disaster.

-Jason "Disney is not at all upset with Rian Johnson's film... they saw it and then gave him three more Star Wars movies... that's all you need to know" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Posting this here since a couple of these movies could still effect our Winter top 5. (Black Panther obviously will.)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/gallery/most-anticipated-movies-of-2018/ss-BBGMQwj

These are the "most anticipated" movies of next year. The Han Solo movie is coming out at the end of May. Is it possible for a Star Wars movie to not make the Summer top 5? There is TONS of competition, in both contests. Neither will be an easy 5 to pick.
Looking ahead, I think both seasons will be breaking records.