This is the most confident that I feel about the upcoming season since 2011.

[proelitedota]

2014 I was skeptical about Quinn as a senior and having our success depend on 3 freshmen.

Last year I was skeptical about our PG spot and our how crowded our lineup is from the 2-4 spot.

Next year we have the most complete starting lineup since IMO 2002, in which everyone got to play their natural positions. 2015 Justice had to play the 4. 2010 Scheyer had to play the 1. Only one out of position is GTJ, but at 6'6 210 lbs he is big enough for the 3 even at the NBA level.

Very excite.

[uh_no]

welp, now you've done it.

i await the announcement tomorrow that grayson is in a boot and bagley is on crutches and carter had knee surgery and is in a brace.

[AGDukesky]

I'd be much more confident if we had some more upperclassmen and our only one didn't have a history of immature behavior. However I agree about the makeup of the team positionally- especially a true point guard and legitimate post players.

[proelitedota]

welp, now you've done it.

i await the announcement tomorrow that grayson is in a boot and bagley is on crutches and carter had knee surgery and is in a brace.

Nonsense. 39-1. Lone loss to Wolf packs.

[ipatent]

Only concerns I have this year are experience (especially on defense) and outside shooting other than Allen. The fast break should be lethal, but there will be some close games against zones.

[UrinalCake]

I wish I shared your confidence, but I have reservations based on our inexperience and lack of guard depth. Without question, last season was the most confident I ever felt coming into the season. We had everything you could possibly ask for - experience, the leading returning scorer in the country and preseason NPOY, elite recruits, depth at every position, athleticism all over the court. The lack of a "pure" point guard didn't really bother me because I thought that Grayson and Matt could get the ball down the court and that Frank would eventually emerge as our primary ballhandler. And maybe I'm just blinded by ignorance, but even now I STILL think that had that team remained totally healthy for the entire season, including Giles not needing that scope in November, it could have been a real juggernaut.

This year I think a lot of people are overlooking our lack of experience. If we can stay healthy and establish a rotation early on, then by the end of the season we have a good chance of clicking. But there are going to be some bumps along the way, and a big thing to watch for will be how the team handles those bumps. Admittedly, a lot of my reservations are based on how last season turned out. Similarly, in 2015 I was very skeptical because we had been bounced in the first round in embarrassing fashion in 2 of the previous 3 seasons (2012 with Rivers and 2014 with Parker/Hood) and I questioned whether the one and done model would ever work for us. So maybe this will be another bounce back year and the basketball gods will look favorably upon us. :)

[Listen to Quants]

I wish I shared your confidence, but I have reservations based on our inexperience and lack of guard depth. Without question, last season was the most confident I ever felt coming into the season. We had everything you could possibly ask for - experience, the leading returning scorer in the country and preseason NPOY, elite recruits, depth at every position, athleticism all over the court. The lack of a "pure" point guard didn't really bother me because I thought that Grayson and Matt could get the ball down the court and that Frank would eventually emerge as our primary ballhandler. And maybe I'm just blinded by ignorance, but even now I STILL think that had that team remained totally healthy for the entire season, including Giles not needing that scope in November, it could have been a real juggernaut.

This year I think a lot of people are overlooking our lack of experience. If we can stay healthy and ....

Indeed, this is a remarkably young team and there are questions to be answered, including things like how well will the new kids shoot (vs. college D) and can they play good D themselves. There is clear reason for high hopes but I'd have no real confidence until a few tough games have been placed. Those early games against good competition will be interesting since Duke being so young will very probably improve more than almost any other top team.

[camion]

Let's see...

Talent - yep.
Experience - nope.
Coaching - yep.
Health - tbd.
Luck - tbd.

I plan to enjoy pulling for this team. We should win a lot of games, but I will always take the field over any single team in the NCAA tournament.

[slower]

Very excite.

Yes. Very Excite.

Hope for GREAT SUCCESS! :p

[Troublemaker]

Yikes. I'm a little bit worried about Trevon's toe now :-)

[NashvilleDevil]

Can this thread be closed?

[slower]

Can this thread be closed?
Sure, but then how will the OP increase his spork count? :p

He already got flak for his Bagley=Winslow thread.

[BigZ]

My biggest concern is the health of Coach K

[superdave]

Yes. Very Excite.

Hope for GREAT SUCCESS! :p

So much wow!

I'm optimistic at the start of every season. Would anyone have predicted Kennard would be all-american and go pro this time last year?

I'm also optimistic at the start of every tournament. So I like this thread.

[slower]

So much wow!

I'm optimistic at the start of every season. Would anyone have predicted Kennard would be all-american and go pro this time last year?

I'm also optimistic at the start of every tournament. So I like this thread.
So I guess not everybody recognizes my "Borat" reference? :)

[duke4ever19]

Yes. Very Excite.

Hope for GREAT SUCCESS! :p

Wawaweewa! High Five!!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Wawaweewa! High Five!!

We could be king of the castle

[Tripping William]

We could be king of the castle

You're the dirty rascal .... :p

(Sorry; screen-name got the best of me.)

[slower]

Wawaweewa! High Five!!

I like you.

[NSDukeFan]

I wish I shared your confidence, but I have reservations based on our inexperience and lack of guard depth. Without question, last season was the most confident I ever felt coming into the season. We had everything you could possibly ask for - experience, the leading returning scorer in the country and preseason NPOY, elite recruits, depth at every position, athleticism all over the court. The lack of a "pure" point guard didn't really bother me because I thought that Grayson and Matt could get the ball down the court and that Frank would eventually emerge as our primary ballhandler. And maybe I'm just blinded by ignorance, but even now I STILL think that had that team remained totally healthy for the entire season, including Giles not needing that scope in November, it could have been a real juggernaut.

This year I think a lot of people are overlooking our lack of experience. If we can stay healthy and establish a rotation early on, then by the end of the season we have a good chance of clicking. But there are going to be some bumps along the way, and a big thing to watch for will be how the team handles those bumps. Admittedly, a lot of my reservations are based on how last season turned out. Similarly, in 2015 I was very skeptical because we had been bounced in the first round in embarrassing fashion in 2 of the previous 3 seasons (2012 with Rivers and 2014 with Parker/Hood) and I questioned whether the one and done model would ever work for us. So maybe this will be another bounce back year and the basketball gods will look favorably upon us. :)
I agree that I was more optimistic before last year. That team had everything; once in a generation incoming freshman talent; another top flight freshman, a solid guard and the top centre in a stacked freshman class; the top,returning player in college basketball; a senior leader who excelled defensively and a graduate student who excelled defensively and was on the verge of averaging a double double before injury; great depth.
I like this year's team and am optimistic about a great season, but I am not as optimistic as I was before last year or 2011 because there is not as much upperclass leadership returning. I also might be underestimating Bagley. My expectations for him may not be as high as my expectations were for Harry. I am excited to see this team play, improve and learn how to deal with adversity and learn to win.

[proelitedota]

wawaweewa! High five!!

very nice!

[left_hook_lacey]

Yes. Very Excite.

Hope for GREAT SUCCESS! :p

We will be bad this year-not!

I love u-s- and a!!

[mgtr]

I, too, am optimistic for this year, but not quite ready to get my 40-0 tattoo!

[proelitedota]

First scrimmage footage in a while.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/907317526044053504

[uh_no]

First scrimmage footage in a while.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/907317526044053504

love the floor slap at the end. hope our guys embody that attitude every time down the floor.

[Troublemaker]

First scrimmage footage in a while.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/907317526044053504

Nice mini-showcase for Duval in that video. He began the video by splitting a ball screen for a soft floater, and he made a nice entry pass for a dunk by Marques later on, but this play right here was also Trevon:

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TinyComposedIndianhare-size_restricted.gif


It happens quickly, so it could be missed, but Trevon while driving fits a nice bounce pass in traffic to the rolling Bagley for the dunk. (Big version (https://gfycat.com/TinyComposedIndianhare))

One of the underrated negatives of not having a true PG last season is that the defense doesn't get a chance to practice against a guy who can make plays like these. This season, my hope is that Duke's defense will rarely face point guards that are better than the one it goes up against in practice. Which should make a difference.

[atoomer0881]

...

One of the underrated negatives of not having a true PG last season is that the defense doesn't get a chance to practice against a guy who can make plays like these. This season, my hope is that Duke's defense will rarely face point guards that are better than the one it goes up against in practice. Which should make a difference.

Somehow, this is something I've admittedly never really thought about. But it's definitely something that's important. Having a true PG not only helps our offense in a myriad of ways, but also like you said, since we'll have to face Duval every day in practice, it should also help us improve immensely at guarding those kind of players from opposing teams. This is why I still think to this day that getting Duval was one of the most important pieces to this year's recruiting class.

[proelitedota]

New preview footage of next year's team just screams 40-0 to me.
*Runs*
38-1

[MrPoon]

One of the underrated negatives of not having a true PG last season is that the defense doesn't get a chance to practice against a guy who can make plays like these. This season, my hope is that Duke's defense will rarely face point guards that are better than the one it goes up against in practice. Which should make a difference.[/QUOTE]

Really great point. Not sure it explains all the defensive liabilities but it could help a lot!
I couldn't be more excited about this year's team to get playing. After last year's expectations, mine for this year is a little more tempered... but not by much.

Listening to the Coach JS's Duke podcast with Bolden, got me really hoping for this kid to have a great year. The rotation of him, Carter and Bags has the chance to be insane. I still have high hopes for him and I really want this great young man's aspirations to work out. Shot blocking, rebounding, rim running, staying healthy, etc.

Last year's team to me at this point in the year was watching injury reports about Giles and watching Tatum videos. This year's team has so many interesting pieces. Bagley alone is really interesting. Duval is nuts. Carter alone would be a great addition. Etc. Trent I think is quietly waiting for a big year. Etc. Please please get the season started. The crap lousy day of NFL yesterday didn't help at all!

[budwom]

tell me how healthy they'll be and i'll tell you how good they'll be.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think if most on this board were being honest, they would say that this season is the most confident they have felt coming into a season since 2016.

[Troublemaker]

Really great point. Not sure it explains all the defensive liabilities but it could help a lot!


Thanks. I don't consider it a major reason for the poor defense but an overlooked, minor reason. The biggest thing is the availability of healthy size, length, and athleticism.

[Troublemaker]

I think if most on this board were being honest, they would say that this season is the most confident they have felt coming into a season since 2016.

I can honestly say I like this team slightly better than last season's team. While I agreed that last season's team should've been preseason #1, I'm sure that I wrote on here that I was nervous about (a) the lack of a point guard and (b) the fact that the projected starting center Giles was coming off ACL surgery and had only played 1 season of basketball in the 3 years preceding enrollment at Duke.

This upcoming season, I would agree that Duke again should be preseason #1, but I have no similar major concerns with the team. (Others will differ with me, citing the extreme lack of experience as a major concern, for example. But I can only speak to my own concerns, which are fewer / minor in comparison this season).

[Kedsy]

Thanks. I don't consider it a major reason for the poor defense but an overlooked, minor reason. The biggest thing is the availability of healthy size, length, and athleticism.

Yeah, I agree that it's interesting but minor. The reason I say that is, assuming the starters need reps together and are thus kept on the same team in most 5 on 5 drills, the only time our starters will have to defend Trevon would be in one-on-one, two-on-two, three-on-three drills. And while those are important for individual defense, I think the "poorness" of our defense in recent years is mostly in the team defense area. So unless Coach K decides that reps together aren't so important and puts Trevon on the "blue" team for 5 on 5 scrimmages, he's not going to help our starters' defense all that much.

[jimsumner]

One of the underrated negatives of not having a true PG last season is that the defense doesn't get a chance to practice against a guy who can make plays like these. This season, my hope is that Duke's defense will rarely face point guards that are better than the one it goes up against in practice. Which should make a difference.

Good point (no pun intended). Along those same lines, that's a major reason Duke brought in Goldwire, so Duval could have a point guard against whom to practice.

[UrinalCake]

For the majority of last season we didn't even have ten healthy bodies to be able to run a full scrimmage in practice. So Troublemaker's point about not having a PG to practice against is true, but our problems went much much deeper than that.

[proelitedota]

Even newer footage.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/907690039152451585

[Turk]

Let's see...

Talent - yep.
Experience - nope.
Coaching - yep.
Health - tbd.
Luck - tbd.

I plan to enjoy pulling for this team. We should win a lot of games, but I will always take the field over any single team in the NCAA tournament.

This. I have also learned to curb my enthusiasm about incoming freshmen, especially after last year. I also remember the NCAA loss to Mercer, where the game was on the line at the end and Jabari was getting subbed out for Amile on defense, and saying to myself, "Self, how is it that the #1 freshman in the country can't guard anybody even after a whole season?"

I like to reserve judgment until the first couple of conference games, where we can see how things are coming together against serious competition. Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? Who's doing the dirty work? Who's the glue guy? What weaknesses still need more work?

[jipops]

Depends on what the confidence is about.

Am I confident we'll be pretty darn good? Certainly.
Am I confident we'll finally capture another ACC regular season crown? meh...pretty fair shot there
Am I confident our NCAA tournament run will be more feast than famine this season? Somewhat...but riding the fence on that one.
Am I confident this will be a fun team to watch at times? Oh heck yes.
Am I confident this will be a frustrating team to watch at times? Oh heck yes.

I think we can make the assumption based on the perceived talent of guys like Bagley, Carter, and Duvall that we're going get a nice number of wins this season. But aside from that I think it is mostly a crap shoot. We had a lot of scorers last season and despite now having a pg I just don't see 2017-18 being as efficient on that end. Defensively I think there is a decent chance we'll be better with so much length but we also lost a lot on that end now losing Amile, Matt and Tatum. I think defense is an open question. As of right now, though this will be a very different team than last season, I just don't see it being any better than last season (this accounts for all the injuries).

I also don't buy this team being title favorites. There are just way too many question marks and unknowns going in...yes, I realize we're not the only team with question marks. However, I think any "frontrunner" talk about this team is based on program reputation and the fact that the freshman dominated 2015 team won it all. But that team was also likely very different than what we'll see this season. At the same time I don't want to take this season for granted. I think we have the chance to be a very powerful team due to a load of young talent. I'll take a team with this sort of lineup any year.

[Indoor66]

This. I have also learned to curb my enthusiasm about incoming freshmen, especially after last year. I also remember the NCAA loss to Mercer, where the game was on the line at the end and Jabari was getting subbed out for Amile on defense, and saying to myself, "Self, how is it that the #1 freshman in the country can't guard anybody even after a whole season?"

I like to reserve judgment until the first couple of conference games, where we can see how things are coming together against serious competition. Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? Who's doing the dirty work? Who's the glue guy? What weaknesses still need more work?

You're just a spoilsport. This DBR, we all know that the shiny new toy is the best ever.

[Turk]

You're just a spoilsport. This DBR, we all know that the shiny new toy is the best ever.

"They call me MISTER Spoilsport!"

[SkyBrickey]

I fully expect this team to be very good if it stays healthy - too much talent and all the pieces fit together nicely.

I think whether it finishes as one of Duke's great teams (ie National Championship) will largely depend on the play of Duvall. He will set the table on offense and set the tone on defense. He'll go through some growing pains and take his lumps as a freshman PG, but if he's channeling Hurley/JayWill/TJones by the end of the year, he'll be working with a lot of weapons and we've got a great chance to cut down the nets in March.

[LasVegas]

I fully expect this team to be very good if it stays healthy - too much talent and all the pieces fit together nicely.

I think whether it finishes as one of Duke's great teams (ie National Championship) will largely depend on the play of Duvall. He will set the table on offense and set the tone on defense. He'll go through some growing pains and take his lumps as a freshman PG, but if he's channeling Hurley/JayWill/TJones by the end of the year, he'll be working with a lot of weapons and we've got a great chance to cut down the nets in March.

I’m going go with Gary Trent being the key to a national title. You hopefully can assume Grayson will have an AA type of year. Possibly NPOY. Carter,Bagley, and Duval are all top 8 recruits and those players usually are outstanding/great. Bolden should be much improved and healthy. That leaves Gary as the largest unknown, I think. Which isn’t a good place to be because of the depth at that spot. If Trent can have an Winslow like year, we will be hard to stop.

[Troublemaker]

You're just a spoilsport. This DBR, we all know that the shiny new toy is the best ever.

It's not just DBR, though.

Duke will be the consensus preseason #1 team and also the sportsbook favorite. Those folks could be wrong about Duke, of course, but the Duke fans that are optimistic about this upcoming season will not be alone.

[luvdahops]

I fully expect this team to be very good if it stays healthy - too much talent and all the pieces fit together nicely.

I think whether it finishes as one of Duke's great teams (ie National Championship) will largely depend on the play of Duvall. He will set the table on offense and set the tone on defense. He'll go through some growing pains and take his lumps as a freshman PG, but if he's channeling Hurley/JayWill/TJones by the end of the year, he'll be working with a lot of weapons and we've got a great chance to cut down the nets in March.

I think Duvall will be important, and is clearly a big point point of differentiation versus even a full strength 2017 team. But to me, as long as 1) Grayson is fully healthy and locked into his leadership role and 2) Bagley is as good as advertised (i.e. not just a top guy in his class, but a once in 5 years type of talent), this squad is going to be among the very short list of truly elite teams nationally, not to mention very fun to watch, even if there is a normal level of inconsistency and unpredictability outside of those two.

[Skydog]

I know this is obvious but this team's ceiling will likely depend on Grayson's performance. I say that because we probably will need both his leadership and a regular 18-20 point scorer to make up for the loss of Kennard and 3 pt shooters in general. Will he be the assertive, healthy and confident Grayson of two years ago or the hesitant, less than 100%, often frustrated and emotionally immature Grayson we saw last year? I know he's healthier to start this season but the emotional/mental component could go either way this season. And there is a huge difference between the two.

[lotusland]

I know this is obvious but this team's ceiling will likely depend on Grayson's performance. I say that because we probably will need both his leadership and a regular 18-20 point scorer to make up for the loss of Kennard and 3 pt shooters in general. Will he be the assertive, healthy and confident Grayson of two years ago or the hesitant, less than 100%, often frustrated and emotionally immature Grayson we saw last year? I know he's healthier to start this season but the emotional/mental component could go either way this season. And there is a huge difference between the two.

Duke lost their two best defenders from an average defensive team. Not coincidentally those two missing defenders were seniors who will be replaced by freshmen. This should be a sub par defensive team even defining par in terms of Duke defense in the OAD era since the 2009-2010 season. Maybe they can out score everyone but they'll have to get more from inside the 3-point line than last year sans Kennard, Jones, Jackson and Tatum. At this point the only thing we know is that we have Grayson and some guys who'll be drafted next summer who may or may not complement each other offensively and will play poor team defense. Without enough shooters to stretch the fooor I expect Duke to struggle in half court offense. Part of a successful Duke break is for a penetrator to kick the ball out to a shooter. One of our best penetrators is also the only reliable 3 point shooters . Who does Grayson kick the ball out to? Shouldn't we expect teams to pack the lane? I see a lot of talented players but poor defense and unbalanced offense.

[Turk]

And people call me a spoilsport?!? :cool:

[Kedsy]

I know this is obvious but this team's ceiling will likely depend on Grayson's performance. I say that because we probably will need both his leadership and a regular 18-20 point scorer to make up for the loss of Kennard and 3 pt shooters in general. Will he be the assertive, healthy and confident Grayson of two years ago or the hesitant, less than 100%, often frustrated and emotionally immature Grayson we saw last year? I know he's healthier to start this season but the emotional/mental component could go either way this season. And there is a huge difference between the two.

Grayson's role is going to be very different (for him) this season. He's going to be our primary jump shooter, our sole source of experience, and the guy who'll be called upon to put the team on his shoulders for short spurts when needed. Not only is he capable of doing all those things, but I think the "emotional/mental component" is going to be easier for him this season because he won't have the pressure of being our best player for all 40 minutes. Obviously, we'll see if it works out that way.


I’m going go with Gary Trent being the key to a national title. You hopefully can assume Grayson will have an AA type of year. Possibly NPOY. Carter,Bagley, and Duval are all top 8 recruits and those players usually are outstanding/great. Bolden should be much improved and healthy. That leaves Gary as the largest unknown, I think. Which isn’t a good place to be because of the depth at that spot. If Trent can have an Winslow like year, we will be hard to stop.

As for Gary, I'm mildly concerned that his inexperience will lead to occasional defensive lapses and unnecessary "hero ball" on offense. That said, all the team should really need him to do is not be a liability on D and avoid being a high usage/low efficiency player on offense. He has the ability to be much more than that, but he doesn't have to be Justise Winslow for our team to succeed. Anything beyond the two things I mentioned would just be icing on the cake.


Duke lost their two best defenders from an average defensive team. Not coincidentally those two missing defenders were seniors who will be replaced by freshmen. This should be a sub par defensive team even defining par in terms of Duke defense in the OAD era since the 2009-2010 season. Maybe they can out score everyone but they'll have to get more from inside the 3-point line than last year sans Kennard, Jones, Jackson and Tatum. At this point the only thing we know is that we have Grayson and some guys who'll be drafted next summer who may or may not complement each other offensively and will play poor team defense. Without enough shooters to stretch the fooor I expect Duke to struggle in half court offense. Part of a successful Duke break is for a penetrator to kick the ball out to a shooter. One of our best penetrators is also the only reliable 3 point shooters . Who does Grayson kick the ball out to? Shouldn't we expect teams to pack the lane? I see a lot of talented players but poor defense and unbalanced offense.

It's possible our defense will be subpar, but it's not inevitable. There are a lot of signs that point to our having a very strong defense. While it's true Amile and Matt were our best defenders, this year's inexperienced team will (a) have a LOT more shotblocking presence; (b) have more quickness and length on the perimeter; and (c) probably won't have a complete defensive liability playing 35+ mpg like we did last season. At the least, I expect this year's team to be better on defense than last year, if only because we'll be so much longer and more athletic.

As many have pointed out, Kentucky teams with a similar lack of experience have been outstanding defensive teams. This year's Duke team seems to be built from a similar mold, so I'm cautiously optimistic on that front.

[RPS]

There are very good reasons to be hopeful. Ultimate success will be based upon growth, health and some added luck. That's about all one can reasonably ask for.

I'm excited about the season.

[Troublemaker]

And people call me a spoilsport?!? :cool:

From what I can tell, lotusland above described a bubble team (at best), lol

The great thing about preseason predictions is nobody is right or wrong... yet.

We'll perhaps bump up this thread during the season and see what's up. Maybe I'll have a red face over my preseason expectations, or maybe others will. For the record, I think we're going to be much better than last season's team. Conservatively, I would expect a top-10 offense and a top-20 defense.

[RPS]

We'll perhaps bump up this thread during the season and see what's up. Maybe I'll have a red face over my preseason expectations, or maybe others will. For the record, I think we're going to be much better than last season's team. Conservatively, I would expect a top-10 offense and a top-20 defense.As I noted in another thread, those of us who watched the 1978-79 season (I was a student then) are very well experienced at seeing even great teams underperform.

[Troublemaker]

As I noted in another thread, those of us who watched the 1978-79 season (I was a student then) are very well experienced at seeing even great teams underperform.

I'm familiar with that season, but I'm not sure of the relevancy. Nowhere does anyone deny that a team can't underperform (or over-perform) preseason expectations. It's still fun and part of sports fandom to, before the season starts, predict how good you think a team might be, even if you end up being wrong.

[MChambers]

That is, Show Me as to this team's defense. I think the team will have enough offense, although I do worry about spacing a bit. But I just don't expect this team to be able to be to play man-to-man well. Maybe it will be like 2015 and they'll put it together down the stretch.

[AGDukesky]

That is, Show Me as to this team's defense. I think the team will have enough offense, although I do worry about spacing a bit. But I just don't expect this team to be able to be to play man-to-man well. Maybe it will be like 2015 and they'll put it together down the stretch.

I agree this team likely struggles with man-to-man defense. However unlike recent teams, this one should actually be good at defensive rebounding which will mitigate that issue. Bad man-to-man and bad rebounding was so frustrating to watch. Add in we might actually have rim protection too and I'm not overly concerned about the defense relative to most recent years.

[Billy Dat]

Even newer footage.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/907690039152451585

Thanks for this...so we have Duvall, Allen, Bagley, Carter and Trent on the white squad. Has a preseason #1, or even a preseason top 5 team, ever started 4 freshmen in the first game?

[jipops]

Thanks for this...so we have Duvall, Allen, Bagley, Carter and Trent on the white squad. Has a preseason #1, or even a preseason top 5 team, ever started 4 freshmen in the first game?

yes

UK vs UNCA - 2013 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400498440)

4 freshmen
1 sophomore

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

yes

UK vs UNCA - 2013 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400498440)

4 freshmen
1 sophomore

Fun fact - UNCA guard Rousey has transferred to Marquette to play for Wojo.

[jipops]

Fun fact - UNCA guard Rousey has transferred to Marquette to play for Wojo.

Ooooh nice!

Also important to consider... that 2013-14 UK team only beat 1 top 25 opponent the entire regular season (Louisville). They lost 9 regular season games including some bad losses to South Carolina and Arkansas. However, they managed to put together a magical run all the way to the title game.

We should probably think about this when this Duke team hits the inevitable rough patches and those that are currently on the wagon are thinking about jumping off (myself included :) ).

[atoomer0881]

Duke lost their two best defenders from an average defensive team. Not coincidentally those two missing defenders were seniors who will be replaced by freshmen. This should be a sub par defensive team even defining par in terms of Duke defense in the OAD era since the 2009-2010 season. Maybe they can out score everyone but they'll have to get more from inside the 3-point line than last year sans Kennard, Jones, Jackson and Tatum. At this point the only thing we know is that we have Grayson and some guys who'll be drafted next summer who may or may not complement each other offensively and will play poor team defense. Without enough shooters to stretch the fooor I expect Duke to struggle in half court offense. Part of a successful Duke break is for a penetrator to kick the ball out to a shooter. One of our best penetrators is also the only reliable 3 point shooters . Who does Grayson kick the ball out to? Shouldn't we expect teams to pack the lane? I see a lot of talented players but poor defense and unbalanced offense.

I'm also expecting Duval to be doing a lot of the penetration and then kicking it out to G

[COYS]

Duke lost their two best defenders from an average defensive team. Not coincidentally those two missing defenders were seniors who will be replaced by freshmen. This should be a sub par defensive team even defining par in terms of Duke defense in the OAD era since the 2009-2010 season. Maybe they can out score everyone but they'll have to get more from inside the 3-point line than last year sans Kennard, Jones, Jackson and Tatum. At this point the only thing we know is that we have Grayson and some guys who'll be drafted next summer who may or may not complement each other offensively and will play poor team defense. Without enough shooters to stretch the fooor I expect Duke to struggle in half court offense. Part of a successful Duke break is for a penetrator to kick the ball out to a shooter. One of our best penetrators is also the only reliable 3 point shooters . Who does Grayson kick the ball out to? Shouldn't we expect teams to pack the lane? I see a lot of talented players but poor defense and unbalanced offense.

I think it's overly simplistic to say that last year's team lost two veteran defenders therefore this year will be worse, defensively. For one, defense is very much dependent on how the team fits together. I would argue that Duke looked to be in even worse shape after the 2009 season when Gerald Henderson entered the draft and Elliot Williams, who came on strong as a quick, athletic on the ball defender, transferred. Duke brought in Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and an early-enrolling, defensively-challenged Andre Dawkins. It would have been easy to assume that given the lack of long, athletic wing players in the incoming class, the 2010 team would be worse on defense. But 2010 ended up being a strong defensive team because the pieces fit together better and K designed a defense that worked. 2017 could prove to be the same.

Also, this coming season (if it is injury free knock on wood) will give us a good data point as to whether or not Duke's relative struggles on defense from 2012-2017 have been due to increased reliance on freshman OAD's or just bad injury luck (Ryan in 2012 and 2013, Amile in 2016, virtually everyone in 2017). The narrative gets repeated that Duke was bad on D in 2017 because of freshmen, but Luke, Matt, Amile, and Grayson played the most minutes along with freshman Jayson. Out of those guys, it was Luke who was really the worst defender. How would the team have looked with a fully healthy Harry Giles using his insane athleticism to block shots and grab boards after having a full summer plus preaseason games to gel with the team? Probably a lot better. So it's entirely possible that Duke was bad on D in 2017 because one of our star freshmen was not full strength, not because we lacked experience. The 2014 team, by far the worse in this group, also only started one freshman. Jabari was bad on defense, but Amile (junior), Quinn (junior), Rasheed (sophomore), Andre (fifth year senior), Rodney (redshirt soph), Tyler (senior), Josh (senior) could've/should've formed a strong, experienced core around which to build a strong defense if experience were the most important part of playing good D. Instead, that team had no depth on the interior and no cohesion on the perimeter on D, and it doomed them. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a team of veteran, established defenders ready to go to work next year. I do, however, remain unconvinced that freshmen have been the primary culprit of Duke's inconsistencies on D. I think injuries and unbalanced roster construction (two things that are often related) are likely bigger factors. I also wonder how much the hand-check rules have affected K's preference for aggressive MTM.

As for offense, if Coach K has proven one thing, it is that he can create an efficient offense out of many different combinations of personnel. Duke is on a nine year streak of top 10 KenPom offenses with many of those years being in the top 5. Duke has only been ranked outside the top 15 in KenPom ONCE (2007, which was a very good defensive team despite relying heavily on freshman) in the entire KenPom era. It is definitely an open question as to whether or not all the new faces can form a complementary offensive attack. However, K and the staff have answered that question virtually every season this century with a resounding "yes." While I am anxious to see if Tre, Marvin and Gary can hit perimeter shots with enough regularity to keep the lane open, I will be very surprised if Coach K can't mold this team into a strong offensive unit somehow.

Anyway, I definitely understand being cautious about expectations going into next season. There are a lot of unknowns and a lack of experience. But I also don't think it's logical to conclude that Duke's D will be bad just because there will be a lot of freshmen on the court.

[grad_devil]

Fun fact - UNCA guard Rousey has transferred to Marquette to play for Wojo.

As you probably know, since he transferred in May '15, he's eligible to play this season.

[DukeFanSince1990]

This seemed like a good place to drop this snippet.

https://www.facebook.com/DukeMBB/videos/10155809174204456/

Coach gives us glimpse into what he is thinking about the coming up season.

[Billy Dat]

yes

UK vs UNCA - 2013 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400498440)

4 freshmen
1 sophomore

Good find, I, too, was searching around the recent UK teams but couldn't dig up all the info I needed. They were ranked #1 to start the year.

[Troublemaker]

Blue Ribbon is out with their preseason top 25: https://blueribbonyearbook.com/blogs/news/arizona-tops-blue-ribbons-37th-annual-preseason-rankings

They have Duke #3 behind Zona and MSU, which I'm fine with

Grayson 1st team AA, Marvin 2nd team AA

Bonzie Colson NPOY (interesting selection)

Michael Porter NFOY

[arnie]

Blue Ribbon is out with their preseason top 25: https://blueribbonyearbook.com/blogs/news/arizona-tops-blue-ribbons-37th-annual-preseason-rankings

They have Duke #3 behind Zona and MSU, which I'm fine with

Grayson 1st team AA, Marvin 2nd team AA

Bonzie Colson NPOY (interesting selection)

Michael Porter NFOY

I also think they have it as right as a preseason poll can be "right".

[proelitedota]

New vid

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/910201936527462403

Effortless crossover form Duvall.