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atoomer0881
08-29-2017, 12:43 PM
Wasn't sure where to post this, so if the moderators find a better place to move it to, by all means, please do.

Came across an article today, entitled Duke Basketball: Is the 2017-18 season a bust without a championship? (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/08/28/duke-basketball-2017-18-season-bust-without-championship/). This article essentially tries to compare this team to the 2015 Championship squad (which I never really like to do -- each team deserves to have its own identity), and then finishes up by saying "With this much talent, there can only be one acceptable outcome, as unreasonable as that may be. Duke must win the national title to declare this season a success."

I realize this article doesn't come from a reputable source and is just one fan's opinion, but it got me thinking. After going through what we went through last year with another uber-talented squad, I think we all can agree that there are many other factors at play besides having good recruits on paper. Chemistry (which honestly from videos that have been shared this summer, don't really appear to be an issue at this point with this squad), injuries (even typing the word gives me agita), and one off-night in a one-and-done Tournament are all things that can "derail" a season. I don't know about all of you, but I hate reading in August before a single game has been played that this season is Championship or Bust for Duke. I know we've discussed in other threads about what people consider to be a "good season" or a "successful season," etc. I know for me personally, if this team -- or any Duke team -- won the ACC regular season or ACC Tournament and made it to a Final Four, I'd never consider the season a failure if we didn't win it all.

While I absolutely am supremely confident in this group of guys, I hate seeing such unreasonable expectations laid upon them, especially so early in the year. As we all know, anything can happen.

Thoughts?

Indoor66
08-29-2017, 12:48 PM
A waste of bandwidth?

richardjackson199
08-29-2017, 12:53 PM
I didn't even click on the link. But I agree - it's a ridiculous notion. The season will be a ride - hopefully with many great accomplishments. The odds are almost always against a single team winning it all, and with our inexperience and youth, this year is no different.
I'll enjoy the ride, whatever happens.
The 98-99 year was pretty damn fun - even though the last game sucked.
The idea that a team who fails to win a national championship is a failure or a bust is beyond ridiculous. Lots of things need to go our way for that to happen. It just sounds like duke haters trying to build up a team, add pressure to them, eager to pile on when a higher probability event occurs (that we don't win it all).
These are exciting times - I can't wait to watch this young team grow.

PackMan97
08-29-2017, 01:04 PM
I would change it to say that Duke's season would be a failure if you don't sweep Carolina. That's how I determine a successful Duke season ;)

WiJoe
08-29-2017, 01:05 PM
Garbage

Scorp4me
08-29-2017, 01:29 PM
If college playoffs were handled like the pros I wouldn't have as much problem with those who say a season's success hinges on winning a championship. I might not agree with it, but I could accept it. But for the many reasons already given to say that a season's success is determined by a one and done tournament is just crazy. I think if the article had been Duke Basketball: Failure if not Successful in 2018 it would have had a lot more credibility haha. The fact is with all of the talent we have (even young talent) we should have our fair amount of success in 2018. But I'm not expecting us to go undefeated. I hope one of those losses isn't in last 6 games of the season...but if it is it won't negate the rest of the season if it has been a successful one.

BD80
08-29-2017, 01:33 PM
... Came across an article today, entitled Duke Basketball: Is the 2017-18 season a bust without a championship? (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/08/28/duke-basketball-2017-18-season-bust-without-championship/). ... "With this much talent, there can only be one acceptable outcome, as unreasonable as that may be. Duke must win the national title to declare this season a success."

...

Thoughts?


I didn't even click on the link. But I agree - it's a ridiculous notion. ...

No need to click on the link, similar thoughts will be expressed on this board throughout the season.
I'd rather say, with this much talent, there is much excitement and anticipation.

Lauderdevil
08-29-2017, 02:24 PM
It's ridiculous for all the obvious reasons, but also for the reason that's been cited on this board many times: even the strongest top seed in any given Tournament only has about a 15% chance of winning it all. That's part of why people love the Tournament: it's never foretold.

rsvman
08-29-2017, 02:28 PM
It's ridiculous for all the obvious reasons, but also for the reason that's been cited on this board many times: even the strongest top seed in any given Tournament only has about a 15% chance of winning it all. That's part of why people love the Tournament: it's never foretold.

What he said.

jimsumner
08-29-2017, 04:14 PM
Nobody is ever even money against the field.

Nobody.

Ever.

Edouble
08-29-2017, 04:25 PM
Wasn't sure where to post this, so if the moderators find a better place to move it to, by all means, please do.

Came across an article today, entitled Duke Basketball: Is the 2017-18 season a bust without a championship? (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/08/28/duke-basketball-2017-18-season-bust-without-championship/). This article essentially tries to compare this team to the 2015 Championship squad (which I never really like to do -- each team deserves to have its own identity), and then finishes up by saying "With this much talent, there can only be one acceptable outcome, as unreasonable as that may be. Duke must win the national title to declare this season a success."

I realize this article doesn't come from a reputable source and is just one fan's opinion, but it got me thinking. After going through what we went through last year with another uber-talented squad, I think we all can agree that there are many other factors at play besides having good recruits on paper. Chemistry (which honestly from videos that have been shared this summer, don't really appear to be an issue at this point with this squad), injuries (even typing the word gives me agita), and one off-night in a one-and-done Tournament are all things that can "derail" a season. I don't know about all of you, but I hate reading in August before a single game has been played that this season is Championship or Bust for Duke. I know we've discussed in other threads about what people consider to be a "good season" or a "successful season," etc. I know for me personally, if this team -- or any Duke team -- won the ACC regular season or ACC Tournament and made it to a Final Four, I'd never consider the season a failure if we didn't win it all.

While I absolutely am supremely confident in this group of guys, I hate seeing such unreasonable expectations laid upon them, especially so early in the year. As we all know, anything can happen.

Thoughts?

Yeah this is especially stupid if they want to use a comparison to the '15 team as evidence, as noone outside of this board thought that team had a chance to cut down the nets. Everyone said Kentucky was going undefeated and couldn't lose.

trinity92
08-29-2017, 05:49 PM
This is typically what you hear from rival/jealous fan bases when Duke is highly ranked. Heck, we even stoop to it sometimes when a rival is top ranked preseason. Ignore, ignore, ignore and let's try not to do it ourselves!

atoomer0881
08-29-2017, 06:28 PM
Yeah this is especially stupid if they want to use a comparison to the '15 team as evidence, as noone outside of this board thought that team had a chance to cut down the nets. Everyone said Kentucky was going undefeated and couldn't lose.

Didn't even think about that part. But yea, I obviously never gave the article any credit, but still made me think. Everyone else on this thread brought up really going points though for why it's garbage haha

jimmymax
08-29-2017, 07:05 PM
Yea -- no point wasting time on this when time is running out to discuss lineups and minutes!

jimsumner
08-29-2017, 07:29 PM
Yea -- no point wasting time on this when time is running out to discuss lineups and minutes!

And cinder blocks.

OldPhiKap
08-29-2017, 07:33 PM
It's over.

DukeFanSince1990
08-29-2017, 07:38 PM
They say that about Duke every year. It's the sports media favorite thing to do. Screw'em.

msdukie
08-30-2017, 12:37 AM
I would change it to say that Duke's season would be a failure if you don't sweep Carolina. That's how I determine a successful Duke season ;)

THIS

Bluedevil114
08-30-2017, 07:36 AM
answer = 1999 Duke basketball. That explains enough.

superdave
08-30-2017, 09:08 AM
After the injuries last season, you have to be grateful for the seasons that go off without a (major) hitch. With Coach K turning 71 this coming season, you have to be grateful for every season we get from him going forward.

I get excited about being in the conversation for a Title. But the NCAA Tournament is a total crapshoot, so you just cant think the way this article does.

Oh yeah, and this: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/kentucky-fan-tempts-fate-and-gets-premature-40-0-tattoo

DBFAN
08-30-2017, 10:17 AM
I would imagine most everyone who is a fan of any kind of team, never wants their season to end on a loss. So really it's a silly notion, because it has to assume that other teams like UK, UNC, AZ...etc would be happy and ok with their last game being a loss. Although in all fairness to the writer of this article, I highly doubt this board would be all unicorns and rainbows if we lost our last game 😎

nmduke2001
08-30-2017, 10:39 AM
I wonder, in a moment of pure honesty, how Coach K would answer this question. I'm guessing that he always sets the NCAA championship as the goal, therefore he is at least strongly disappointed when they don't win it all.

fraggler
08-30-2017, 10:40 AM
I would imagine most everyone who is a fan of any kind of team, never wants their season to end on a loss. So really it's a silly notion, because it has to assume that other teams like UK, UNC, AZ...etc would be happy and ok with their last game being a loss. Although in all fairness to the writer of this article, I highly doubt this board would be all unicorns and rainbows if we lost our last game 😎

Pretty big difference, though, between being disappointed or even being very upset if we lose our last game and calling the season a failure if we don't win the National Title.

Saratoga2
08-30-2017, 10:43 AM
Wasn't sure where to post this, so if the moderators find a better place to move it to, by all means, please do.

Came across an article today, entitled Duke Basketball: Is the 2017-18 season a bust without a championship? (https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/08/28/duke-basketball-2017-18-season-bust-without-championship/). This article essentially tries to compare this team to the 2015 Championship squad (which I never really like to do -- each team deserves to have its own identity), and then finishes up by saying "With this much talent, there can only be one acceptable outcome, as unreasonable as that may be. Duke must win the national title to declare this season a success."

I realize this article doesn't come from a reputable source and is just one fan's opinion, but it got me thinking. After going through what we went through last year with another uber-talented squad, I think we all can agree that there are many other factors at play besides having good recruits on paper. Chemistry (which honestly from videos that have been shared this summer, don't really appear to be an issue at this point with this squad), injuries (even typing the word gives me agita), and one off-night in a one-and-done Tournament are all things that can "derail" a season. I don't know about all of you, but I hate reading in August before a single game has been played that this season is Championship or Bust for Duke. I know we've discussed in other threads about what people consider to be a "good season" or a "successful season," etc. I know for me personally, if this team -- or any Duke team -- won the ACC regular season or ACC Tournament and made it to a Final Four, I'd never consider the season a failure if we didn't win it all.

While I absolutely am supremely confident in this group of guys, I hate seeing such unreasonable expectations laid upon them, especially so early in the year. As we all know, anything can happen.Thoughts?

We have a very talented but young group of guys to play for us this year and barring injury we should expect a very representative effort. They have a better chance than most teams for going deep into the tournament but there is never a 100% probability of winning anything. I look forward to their development and improvement throughout the season and will be okay with any outcome but believe it could be very good.

DBFAN
08-30-2017, 11:09 AM
Pretty big difference, though, between being disappointed or even being very upset if we lose our last game and calling the season a failure if we don't win the National Title.

I dunno for a couple of days whenever we lose a regular season game this board spirals downward lol

English
08-30-2017, 11:59 AM
I dunno for a couple of days whenever we lose a regular season game this board spirals downward lol

Oh absolutely, there are plenty of folks in these parts who are quick to write each season off as a failure when a few rocky games pile up. In 2010, we had the NCSU & GTown meltdowns down the stretch...in 2015, NCSU and Miami. The inevitable "Are we going to make the post-season" threads start, the definitive "We can't get past the first weekend unless [reasons]," and so forth. How many people have declared last season a failure, despite an ACCT 'ship and a 2-seed? Falling short of perceived expectations doesn't equate to failure, especially when those expectations are massively inflated.

But, seriously, a NCAAT 'ship or bust is crazy.

I've heard from a few buddies (mostly unx fans) that I should consider anything short of a F4 a disappointment/failure. Their analogies essentially boil down to "I knew going into 2005 and 2009 that we had a dominant team, and if we hadn't made the F4, it would've been a disaster," so that hindsight logic isn't super compelling. Admittedly, I'd be disappointed if we didn't win the ACC regular season (faux) title, sweep unx, and at least make the E8...but if we don't, I won't write off the season to failure. This team is crazy young and inexperienced. It'll be a journey that I'll enjoy.

JasonEvans
08-30-2017, 12:15 PM
Here's a thought... what if we table any talk of expectation until we see the team play at least one exhibition game, Mmmmkay?

cato
08-30-2017, 12:21 PM
Here's a thought... what if we table any talk of expectation until we see the team play at least one exhibition game, Mmmmkay?

Or maybe just get the word on Bagley's eligibility?

BD80
08-30-2017, 12:24 PM
Here's a thought... what if we table any talk of expectation until we see the team play at least one exhibition game, Mmmmkay?

First time visiting these boards JE?

sagegrouse
08-30-2017, 12:29 PM
I wonder, in a moment of pure honesty, how Coach K would answer this question. I'm guessing that he always sets the NCAA championship as the goal, therefore he is at least strongly disappointed when they don't win it all.

Coach K is always "there" for his players, and he is willing to emphasize the positives in (just about) any season.

Does that mean he doesn't stew about NCAA tournament losses in the off-season? No. But I bet he also remembers winning the ACCs on a four-day run in NYC.

English
08-30-2017, 12:30 PM
Here's a thought... what if we table any talk of expectation until we see the team play at least one exhibition game, Mmmmkay?

The first exhibition game is always a valuable tool to determine the ceiling and floor of the team. Good idea.

Everything before that first exhibition game is pure noise.

Reddevil
08-30-2017, 04:24 PM
I wonder, in a moment of pure honesty, how Coach K would answer this question. I'm guessing that he always sets the NCAA championship as the goal, therefore he is at least strongly disappointed when they don't win it all.

I like this thought. On the one hand it takes, skill, chemistry, health, and luck to win championships. No team ever has the advantage over the field. On the other hand - yeah, it always stinks not to win it all. Especially if "they" do!:( It is nice to pull for a program that shoots for the moon nearly every year. Even when we all know it will usually end in agony.

alteran
08-30-2017, 04:29 PM
It's ridiculous for all the obvious reasons, but also for the reason that's been cited on this board many times: even the strongest top seed in any given Tournament only has about a 15% chance of winning it all. That's part of why people love the Tournament: it's never foretold.

Agreed. And Duke haters LOVE to say, "unless Duke wins it all they're a failure," that way if Duke fails anywhere at all they can claim victory.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
08-30-2017, 04:46 PM
In 2015, things got so sour after back to back losses to State and Miami that I felt compelled to start this thread.

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34968

This board swings wildly with the winds.

PackMan97
08-30-2017, 04:52 PM
Everything before that first exhibition game is pure noise.

The floor is the ceiling.

OldPhiKap
08-30-2017, 07:16 PM
The floor is the ceiling.

Our roof was named "Ted."

Indoor66
08-30-2017, 07:43 PM
The floor is the ceiling.

It's all upside 👇.

dukelifer
08-30-2017, 07:59 PM
It is ridiculous to assert that this team with only 1 tested player will win a NC. This team has potential- that is all we can say right now.

dukelifer
08-30-2017, 08:00 PM
Coach K is always "there" for his players, and he is willing to emphasize the positives in (just about) any season.

Does that mean he doesn't stew about NCAA tournament losses in the off-season? No. But I bet he also remembers winning the ACCs on a four-day run in NYC.
I bet he ranks that 4 day run right up there.

atoomer0881
09-01-2017, 10:26 AM
In 2015, things got so sour after back to back losses to State and Miami that I felt compelled to start this thread.

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?34968

This board swings wildly with the winds.

Just read through that thread. It's like you were psychic or something haha

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
09-01-2017, 10:50 AM
Just read through that thread. It's like you were psychic or something haha

No sir/madam. Just have watched a lot of Duke basketball, and was happy to be right.

And yes, it really is a delightful read, knowing the outcomes.

atoomer0881
09-01-2017, 10:58 AM
No sir/madam. Just have watched a lot of Duke basketball, and was happy to be right.

And yes, it really is a delightful read, knowing the outcomes.

Kind of how I feel when I watch the 2010 and 2015 Championship games. They're delightful viewings knowing the outcomes :-)

Troublemaker
09-02-2017, 10:26 AM
I wonder, in a moment of pure honesty, how Coach K would answer this question. I'm guessing that he always sets the NCAA championship as the goal, therefore he is at least strongly disappointed when they don't win it all.

Sorry for being late to this thread. I would bet that at some point this season, a player or coach -- more likely a player -- will pretty much say the same thing as that Fansided article. It may not happen in the preseason, but if this team comes together like we hope and is a 1 seed heading into the tournament, I think someone representing Duke will say something very similar.

I've just rarely heard NCAA coaches and players talk about the probabilities of a single-elimination tournament. I don't think they can afford to allow themselves to think about it. Also, most teams rally around simple, concise mottoes or slogans. "We're going banner-hunting" instead of "We're going banner-hunting, but let's hope our opponent doesn't make shots that they usually miss coincidentally in a game where we miss good shots that we usually make; such is the capriciousness of a single-elimination tournament, 1-2-3 Probability!"

With that said, I agree that the article is statistically unsound.

atoomer0881
09-02-2017, 01:47 PM
Sorry for being late to this thread. I would bet that at some point this season, a player or coach -- more likely a player -- will pretty much say the same thing as that Fansided article. It may not happen in the preseason, but if this team comes together like we hope and is a 1 seed heading into the tournament, I think someone representing Duke will say something very similar.

I've just rarely heard NCAA coaches and players talk about the probabilities of a single-elimination tournament. I don't think they can afford to allow themselves to think about it. Also, most teams rally around simple, concise mottoes or slogans. "We're going banner-hunting" instead of "We're going banner-hunting, but let's hope our opponent doesn't make shots that they usually miss coincidentally in a game where we miss good shots that we usually make; such is the capriciousness of a single-elimination tournament, 1-2-3 Probability!"

With that said, I agree that the article is statistically unsound.

This might be my favorite motto/slogan of all time hahah:D:D