2017 Roster

[gofurman]

Can someone remind me our top ten players and rough positions next year? Thanks.

Here's who I recall:
M. Bolden - 5
W. Carter - 4
Bagley if eligible* - 4 Please be eligible !
Vrank - 4?
J. DeLaurier - 4?
J. Tucker - 4?
G. Trent -3?
G. Allen -2
Duval - 1

Man, that's talented but sure looks front court heavy

Who am I forgetting or. Have in the wrong position ?

[DukieTiger]

Can someone remind me our top ten players and rough positions next year? Thanks.

Here's who I recall:
M. Bolden - 5
W. Carter - 4/5
Bagley - 4/5 (3?)
Vrank - 5
J. DeLaurier - 4 (3?)
J. Tucker - 3
G. Trent -2/3
G. Allen -1/2
Duval - 1

Man, that's talented but sure looks front court heavy

Who am I forgetting or. Have in the wrong position ?

I rewrote some positions but you also have Alex O'Connell and Jack White. AOC is a 2/3 where you'd probably classify White as a 3/2.

Yes, quality depth on the wing is a question mark this year.

[gofurman]

I rewrote some positions but you also have Alex O'Connell and Jack White. AOC is a 2/3 where you'd probably classify White as a 3/2.

Yes, quality depth on the wing is a question mark this year.

Thanks.

So Alex O'Connell (top 50 guy) as 2/3.
Maybe Jack White as 3/2


So that's prob our top guys who could be vying for PT? Just trying to recall our lineup

Please be eligible Bagley !!

[sagegrouse]

Here's the roster from GoDuke.com:


1 Trevon Duval G 6'3" 186 Fr. New Castle, Del. (IMG Academy [Fla.])
2 Gary Trent, Jr. G 6'6" 209 Fr. Columbus, Ohio (Prolific Prep [Calif.])
3 Grayson Allen G 6'5" 205 Sr. Jacksonville, Fla. (Providence School)
5 Jordan Tucker F 6'7" 212 Fr. White Plains, N.Y. (Wheeler [Ga.])
12 Javin DeLaurier F 6'10" 231 So. Shipman, Va. (Saint Anne's-Belfield)
14 Jordan Goldwire G 6'2" 172 Fr. Norcross, Ga. (Norcross)
15 Alex O'Connell G 6'6" 171 Fr. Roswell, Ga. (Milton)
20 Marques Bolden C 6'11" 246 So. DeSoto, Texas (DeSoto)
30 Antonio Vrankovic C 7'0" 269 Jr. Delray Beach, Fla. (Pine Crest School)
34 Wendell Carter, Jr. F 6'10" 259 Fr. Atlanta, Ga. (Pace Academy)
35 Marvin Bagley III F 6'11" 225 Fr. Tempe, Ariz. (Sierra Canyon [Calif.])
41 Jack White F 6'7" 226 So. Traralgon, Victoria, Australia (Australian Institute of Sport)
50 Justin Robinson F 6'9" 198 RSo. San Antonio, Texas (San Antonio Christian Academy)
53 Brennan Besser G 6'5" 190 Jr. Chicago, Ill. (Latin School)

For the "top ten" I'd take Duval, Trent, Allen, Tucker, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic, Carter, Bagley, and White -- omitting Goldwire, O'Connell, Robinson and Besser.

[dukelifer]

Here's the roster from GoDuke.com:


1 Trevon Duval G 6'3" 186 Fr. New Castle, Del. (IMG Academy [Fla.])
2 Gary Trent, Jr. G 6'6" 209 Fr. Columbus, Ohio (Prolific Prep [Calif.])
3 Grayson Allen G 6'5" 205 Sr. Jacksonville, Fla. (Providence School)
5 Jordan Tucker F 6'7" 212 Fr. White Plains, N.Y. (Wheeler [Ga.])
12 Javin DeLaurier F 6'10" 231 So. Shipman, Va. (Saint Anne's-Belfield)
14 Jordan Goldwire G 6'2" 172 Fr. Norcross, Ga. (Norcross)
15 Alex O'Connell G 6'6" 171 Fr. Roswell, Ga. (Milton)
20 Marques Bolden C 6'11" 246 So. DeSoto, Texas (DeSoto)
30 Antonio Vrankovic C 7'0" 269 Jr. Delray Beach, Fla. (Pine Crest School)
34 Wendell Carter, Jr. F 6'10" 259 Fr. Atlanta, Ga. (Pace Academy)
35 Marvin Bagley III F 6'11" 225 Fr. Tempe, Ariz. (Sierra Canyon [Calif.])
41 Jack White F 6'7" 226 So. Traralgon, Victoria, Australia (Australian Institute of Sport)
50 Justin Robinson F 6'9" 198 RSo. San Antonio, Texas (San Antonio Christian Academy)
53 Brennan Besser G 6'5" 190 Jr. Chicago, Ill. (Latin School)

For the "top ten" I'd take Duval, Trent, Allen, Tucker, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic, Carter, Bagley, and White -- omitting Goldwire, O'Connell, Robinson and Besser.
I have a strong sense that Goldwire will play some in big games- K loves guards. I have a feeling this kid will be a defensive pest.

[Kedsy]

I have a strong sense that Goldwire will play some in big games- K loves guards. I have a feeling this kid will be a defensive pest.

I have a strong sense that Goldwire won't play at all, except in garbage time.

[Jeffrey]

I have a strong sense that Goldwire won't play at all, except in garbage time.

Yep, I do not see how he plays with the current roster. K is never going that deep when it matters.

So, who starts now?

[flyingdutchdevil]

I have a strong sense that Goldwire won't play at all, except in garbage time.

Yeah...he's not even on my radar for playing time. I assume Allen takes the 1 when Duval sits.

And let's be realistic - this is Coach K we're talking about. The man loves short lineups. I'm ACC play, the players outside the top 7 will play <10 min combined.

[sagegrouse]

Yeah...he's not even on my radar for playing time. I assume Allen takes the 1 when Duval sits.

And let's be realistic - this is Coach K we're talking about. The man loves short lineups. I'm ACC play, the players outside the top 7 will play <10 min combined.

Moreover, with so many players, isn't there something to be said for a redshirt or two?

[ipatent]

I'd say Vrank is a 5.

[Jeffrey]

Moreover, with so many players, isn't there something to be said for a redshirt or two?

IMO, with the NBA dollars increasing exponentially, less and less quality players, with NBA potential (real or imagined), will be interested in redshirting.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

IMO, with the NBA dollars increasing exponentially, less and less quality players, with NBA potential (real or imagined), will be interested in redshirting.

I think the guys he is thinking might redshirt are those who will receive little or no real playing time this year, so NBA lottery dollars are not a primary concern for them and they are likely not missing out on getting exposure as they won't be stepping off the bench much. And as I've noted before, a redshirt does not obligate one to stay at a school for five years - a player can easily declare pro at any time or grad transfer. And if a lucrative basketball career is not in their future, a free year of grad school is a nice perk.

[DukieInBrasil]

IMO, with the NBA dollars increasing exponentially, less and less quality players, with NBA potential (real or imagined), will be interested in redshirting.

that's true, but there are more than a couple of players who don't have realistic NBA potential, and probably don't view themselves as NBA bound before their Sr seasons anyway. Goldwire certainly comes to mind, so he may very well red-shirt this year if all of our guards make it thru the year healthy. Vrank should have red-shirted his Fr year, but he may be eyeing a future in Euro-ball rather than the NBA, although big guys sometimes just find themselves in the NBA if they develop enough over time. Example: MP3. Justin already red-shirted. So we have guys on the roster who may not see themselves as NBA bound players, only one of whom has a realistic chance of going the redshirt route this year. Tucker and O'Connell are the only other Fr. that don't seem to have easily envisioned paths to the NBA, but they both have skills that Duke may need this year at some point and may burn any possibility of a redshirt.
I've never seen them play outside of mix-tapes, so i don't have anything useful to say about them, but it does seem to me like Alex may have a hard time finding his way onto the court due to his skinniness. People say he's got a lot of skill and that may help him overcome his lack of strength (or maybe he'll just grow into himself before the season starts), but he may also benefit from a red-shirt year. Tucker looks more physically mature and has a reputation as a 3pt shooter, which is something Duke will need this year. Barring injury, i don't see him taking a red-shirt.

[jimsumner]

Given the expected post-season attrition, I suspect K would like to give everyone at least some garbage-time PT in anticipation of needing them next season.

And I would characterize Jack White as a 3/4.

[flyingdutchdevil]

IMO, with the NBA dollars increasing exponentially, less and less quality players, with NBA potential (real or imagined), will be interested in redshirting.

IMO, Duke has three types of players:

Elite OADs: Players who are top 10-15 and will likely start. Example: Choose one of our top 15 freshman this year

Role Players/Future Leaders: Players are likely to contribute their freshman years, but primarily as role players. They will likely be starters/impact players as upperclassmen, and some may even be greats. Example: Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Tyler Thornton

Blow Out Players/Practice Players: Scholarship players who likely won't see any meaningful time until their junior/senior years, and even then they likely won't make much of an impact. Example: Josh Hairston, Marty Pocius, Justin Robinson, Sean Obi

Yes, that "Role Players/Future Leaders" group is big and diverse, but you know who these players are. Javin DeLaurier, Justin Tucker, Alex O'Connell, and Vrank all fit into that group. To me, Justin Goodwin falls into the "Blow Out Players/Practice Players" camp.

[jimsumner]

IMO, Duke has three types of players:

Elite OADs: Players who are top 10-15 and will likely start. Example: Choose one of our top 15 freshman this year

Role Players/Future Leaders: Players are likely to contribute their freshman years, but primarily as role players. They will likely be starters/impact players as upperclassmen, and some may even be greats. Example: Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Tyler Thornton

Blow Out Players/Practice Players: Scholarship players who likely won't see any meaningful time until their junior/senior years, and even then they likely won't make much of an impact. Example: Josh Hairston, Marty Pocius, Justin Robinson, Sean Obi

Yes, that "Role Players/Future Leaders" group is big and diverse, but you know who these players are. Javin DeLaurier, Justin Tucker, Alex O'Connell, and Vrank all fit into that group. To me, Justin Goodwin falls into the "Blow Out Players/Practice Players" camp.

Justin Goodwin?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Justin Goodwin?

My goodness. That's hilarious. Jordan Goldwire.

[brevity]

Justin Goodwin?


My goodness. That's hilarious. Jordan Goldwire.

Justin Goodwin is the generic, store-brand version of Jordan Goldwire. Sadly, Roy Williams couldn't sign him either.

[jipops]

Given the expected post-season attrition, I suspect K would like to give everyone at least some garbage-time PT in anticipation of needing them next season.

And I would characterize Jack White as a 3/4.

If Jack White can somehow fill in for a few minutes at the 3 to give either Allen or Trent a breather then that would certainly be a huge plus. Especially when fouls become an issue. No idea if it will play out that way, but with such a thin lineup on the perimeter it certainly could be a weakness to fill. The 2010 team managed well with a thin perimeter, though they were all upper class-men.

[Rich]

IMO, with the NBA dollars increasing exponentially, less and less quality players, with NBA potential (real or imagined), will be interested in redshirting.

In a nod to Davos Seaworth on GoT, "fewer and fewer."

[Kedsy]

If Jack White can somehow fill in for a few minutes at the 3 to give either Allen or Trent a breather then that would certainly be a huge plus.

Well, someone will have to fill in at SF for a few minutes a game, or more than a few, as there should be 15 to 20 perimeter minutes available. Whether it's Tucker, DeLaurier, O'Connell, or White is up in the air. My guess is Jack is no better than third most likely on that list (and maybe fourth) when it comes to filling that need.

[ipatent]

Well, someone will have to fill in at SF for a few minutes a game, or more than a few, as there should be 15 to 20 perimeter minutes available. Whether it's Tucker, DeLaurier, O'Connell, or White is up in the air. My guess is Jack is no better than third most likely on that list (and maybe fourth) when it comes to filling that need.

We know he can shoot, and minutes could be up for grabs for a shooter at the 3 spot.

[jipops]

Well, someone will have to fill in at SF for a few minutes a game, or more than a few, as there should be 15 to 20 perimeter minutes available. Whether it's Tucker, DeLaurier, O'Connell, or White is up in the air. My guess is Jack is no better than third most likely on that list (and maybe fourth) when it comes to filling that need.

Both O'Connell and Tucker are ranked in the 80's in their hs class according to espn. While Jack White was unranked, based on the fact that he has one season in college ball and working out with college players I'd be willing to guess he's at an advantage over 2 guys who, though likely gifted, are not the sort who come in and contribute at Duke in their first year. Now with Javin there is certainly some possibility as well but it's difficult to see him being relied on to pitch in on the perimeter, even if he was a decent outside shooter in high school. In any case, neither White nor DeLaurier(ranked 44) contributed much at all last season. Both averaged about the same mpg with somewhat similar stats. The only real difference I can tell is that Javin has a higher fg% with most of his shots being close to the basket. Sure Javin is the better athlete but don't know if that translates to a 6-10 guy like him being able to defend on the perimeter. And we have no idea if O'Connell or Tucker are even equipped for division 1 ball yet. It's a guess at this point, I doubt the staff would even have any idea right now.

Edit: oops. Jordan Tucker is in the 40's. I was looking at the scout's grade. So I guess I'd go with the spot being between White and Tucker

[Kedsy]

We know he can shoot, and minutes could be up for grabs for a shooter at the 3 spot.

Well, what we know is that against actual Division I competition, Jack White has attempted a total of two three-point shots, making one. While it's true that Jordan Tucker has attempted two fewer threes against Division I college competition, it's also true he took 147 threes as a senior in high school (making 51, for around 35%). Alex O'Connell also had a reputation as a shooter in high school. Even Javin DeLaurier was a good three-point shooter in college (45% in his junior/senior seasons combined, on 1.6 three-attempts per game). It may be that Jack is the best shooter of the bunch, but we don't "know" that he's any better than the others, in fact there's pretty much no evidence that he is, and all of the others were more highly regarded than Jack, coming out of high school.

[Kedsy]

Both O'Connell and Tucker are ranked in the 80's in their hs class according to espn. While Jack White was unranked, based on the fact that he has one season in college ball and working out with college players I'd be willing to guess he's at an advantage over 2 guys who, though likely gifted, are not the sort who come in and contribute at Duke in their first year. Now with Javin there is certainly some possibility as well but it's difficult to see him being relied on to pitch in on the perimeter, even if he was a decent outside shooter in high school. In any case, neither White nor DeLaurier(ranked 44) contributed much at all last season. Both averaged about the same mpg with somewhat similar stats. The only real difference I can tell is that Javin has a higher fg% with most of his shots being close to the basket. Sure Javin is the better athlete but don't know if that translates to a 6-10 guy like him being able to defend on the perimeter. And we have no idea if O'Connell or Tucker are even equipped for division 1 ball yet. It's a guess at this point, I doubt the staff would even have any idea right now.

Jordan T and Alex were #57 and #65 according to RSCI (of which ESPN is a part), a more reliable rating than just using ESPN. Though for accuracy's sake, Jordan Tucker was ranked #40 by ESPN, not "in the 80s." Last season, Javin was #35 in the RSCI. You are correct that Jack went unranked in the RSCI, though I found some ranking system that had him pegged at #236. In fairness to Jack, foreign players are often unranked and he may have been better than that (or he may not have, we just don't know).

I agree we also don't know which of the four will win the backup perimeter minutes. But if we're guessing, it's unlikely a sophomore who was ranked in the 230s, and barely played as a freshman, has a significant advantage over freshmen ranked in the 50s or 60s. Personally I'd bet on the latter.

As for whether Javin can play on the perimeter, I have no idea, but I'm hoping so because I believe he has a better chance to be a decent defender than any of the others.

[jipops]

Jordan T and Alex were #57 and #65 according to RSCI (of which ESPN is a part), a more reliable rating than just using ESPN. Though for accuracy's sake, Jordan Tucker was ranked #40 by ESPN, not "in the 80s." Last season, Javin was #35 in the RSCI. You are correct that Jack went unranked in the RSCI, though I found some ranking system that had him pegged at #236. In fairness to Jack, foreign players are often unranked and he may have been better than that (or he may not have, we just don't know).

I agree we also don't know which of the four will win the backup perimeter minutes. But if we're guessing, it's unlikely a sophomore who was ranked in the 230s, and barely played as a freshman, has a significant advantage over freshmen ranked in the 50s or 60s. Personally I'd bet on the latter.

As for whether Javin can play on the perimeter, I have no idea, but I'm hoping so because I believe he has a better chance to be a decent defender than any of the others.

Yea, I cited that correction earlier.

Javin was #35 and still barely played more than a guy who was #236. That's likely an outlier of a comparison. I don't see Jack as having a significant advantage. I'm just not counting on Tucker and O'Connell as coming in ready to contribute, though there is obviously a better possibility for Tucker than O'Connell. There is a very good possibility we're just splitting hairs here too and none of these guys will play anything outside of garbage time or a 2 minute cameo in the first half. My initial point was it would be terrific if somebody could give us some positive minutes as a wing. I still don't see Javin as being that guy. I see it more likely that Javin spells the 4 while Bagley moves over to a wing position which could give either Carter or Bolden a rest.

[DevilFalcon]

We have scoring and driving, so the biggest need on the wing is defense, and an occasional open look at a 3. We need another Matt Jones.
I think DeLaurier would be fantastic if his athletism would let him keep up with smaller guards. Tucker maybe, but it seems so rare that a non elite freshman gets any meaningful minutes.
I really want to see Bolden, Carter and Bagley out there at the same time, but that's probably not a lineup that's sustainable or that we may even see.

[Kedsy]

Yea, I cited that correction earlier.

Javin was #35 and still barely played more than a guy who was #236. That's likely an outlier of a comparison. I don't see Jack as having a significant advantage. I'm just not counting on Tucker and O'Connell as coming in ready to contribute, though there is obviously a better possibility for Tucker than O'Connell. There is a very good possibility we're just splitting hairs here too and none of these guys will play anything outside of garbage time or a 2 minute cameo in the first half. My initial point was it would be terrific if somebody could give us some positive minutes as a wing. I still don't see Javin as being that guy. I see it more likely that Javin spells the 4 while Bagley moves over to a wing position which could give either Carter or Bolden a rest.

Sorry, you hadn't yet corrected at the time I posted, or at least I didn't see that you had.

Regarding your first sentence, with a coach like Coach K, who only plays 7 guys, the fact that the 11th guy barely played more than the 12th guy is irrelevant. When we're looking for a 7th man, Coach K almost always will choose the #35 guy over the #236 guy, unless the better rated/better player can't play the position needed.

You're right that it's possible that Jordan T and Alex won't be ready. It's just as possible, if not more so, that Jack won't be ready. After all, he only played 11 minutes against ACC competition, and 5 of those minutes were in a 50+ point blowout. And in the 6 minutes that weren't in a 50-point blowout, he had zero points, one rebound, one foul, and no other stats.

I agree with you that somebody has to play the leftover minutes on the wing, and I agree that we don't yet know who that will be. I even agree with you that Javin probably won't be the guy, though I hope he can do it because I believe he has the best chance of the bunch to contribute defensively. That said, if Marvin plays the wing (as you suggest), and is above-average defensively there, with Javin at PF, for rotation purposes it's the same as Javin playing out there.

If niether Javin nor Marvin can play SF, then obviously it has to be one of Jordan T, Alex, or Jack. I don't think we'll know which until we see them in action and see how the coaching staff uses them, and even then Coach K might change his mind (regarding his 7th man) several times over the course of the season.

[BD80]

... a coach like Coach K, who only plays 7 guys, ...

...Coach K might change his mind (regarding his 7th man) several times over the course of the season.

No, no, no.

THIS is the year he goes 9 or 10 deep.

Just watch.

I can't be wrong 37 straight times, can I?

[devilsince1977]

No, no, no.

THIS is the year he goes 9 or 10 deep.

Just watch.

I can't be wrong 37 straight times, can I?

If K follows through with his comments from the SC post game press conference; you will see 9 or 10 deep. He said that he needed to build more depth and he might have to take some losses to accomplish building that depth.

I doubt K's ability to take "acceptable losses" ; it is not in his military DNA.

I think you will be wrong 38 straight times. So will I.

[MCFinARL]

Sorry, you hadn't yet corrected at the time I posted, or at least I didn't see that you had.

Regarding your first sentence, with a coach like Coach K, who only plays 7 guys, the fact that the 11th guy barely played more than the 12th guy is irrelevant. When we're looking for a 7th man, Coach K almost always will choose the #35 guy over the #236 guy, unless the better rated/better player can't play the position needed.

You're right that it's possible that Jordan T and Alex won't be ready. It's just as possible, if not more so, that Jack won't be ready. After all, he only played 11 minutes against ACC competition, and 5 of those minutes were in a 50+ point blowout. And in the 6 minutes that weren't in a 50-point blowout, he had zero points, one rebound, one foul, and no other stats.

I agree with you that somebody has to play the leftover minutes on the wing, and I agree that we don't yet know who that will be. I even agree with you that Javin probably won't be the guy, though I hope he can do it because I believe he has the best chance of the bunch to contribute defensively. That said, if Marvin plays the wing (as you suggest), and is above-average defensively there, with Javin at PF, for rotation purposes it's the same as Javin playing out there.

If niether Javin nor Marvin can play SF, then obviously it has to be one of Jordan T, Alex, or Jack. I don't think we'll know which until we see them in action and see how the coaching staff uses them, and even then Coach K might change his mind (regarding his 7th man) several times over the course of the season.

Reading the tea leaves of the pre-season promotional videos, Javin seems to have a bigger potential role on this team than Jack--he shows up more often and talks more. Granted, I haven't seen any made since Bagley committed, and they say nothing about whether Javin can play the three. But they suggest he is taking on more of a leadership role and thus may be more likely to get on the court.

Since I'm responding to a Kedsy post, I acknowledge in advance that this is a completely non-scientific and non-empirically based speculation on my part.

[freshmanjs]

If K follows through with his comments from the SC post game press conference; you will see 9 or 10 deep. He said that he needed to build more depth and he might have to take some losses to accomplish building that depth.


That's not true. He didn't mention Duke's depth at all in the post game press conference. In the TV interview, he did say we need to get deeper, but didn't say anything about taking losses.

[flyingdutchdevil]

That's not true. He didn't mention Duke's depth at all in the post game press conference. In the TV interview, he did say we need to get deeper, but didn't say anything about taking losses.

I'll believe it when I see it.

If the 8th man averages at least 8 minutes in the first five ACC games, I'll believe that Coach K went deeper. But with this roster? I doubt it.

[Troublemaker]

That's not true. He didn't mention Duke's depth at all in the post game press conference. In the TV interview, he did say we need to get deeper, but didn't say anything about taking losses.

Yes, thank you for remembering correctly!

Here's a post I made a couple of months ago with a link to the video of Coach K saying it:


Please note that the bolded sentences above are wrong. Much as I would like your interpretation of his throwaway postgame interview comment to be correct.

What Coach K actually said was, "We played mostly with six, seven guys, and, uh, we have to become a deeper team. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbfj2cwfvjM&feature=youtu.be&t=48s)"

There's a difference between that statement and a promise to expand the rotation. He's almost certainly putting the onus on the bench players to raise their level so he can trust them enough to play them in the rotation. In other words, same old Coach K.

I'll probably have to repost this a few more times leading up to the season.

devilsince1977 has the most creative "memory playing tricks on you" recollection of Coach K's quote so far, with the having to take some acceptable losses to accomplish the goal of going 9-10 deep. We remember what we want to remember sometimes.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I really think this team's strength is going to be in transition and speeding the game up. I look forward to it, an exciting style of bball to watch. Duval is going to push push push the ball with extreme speed. Bagley, Carter, and Grayson will be running the lanes and can all finish with authority. Tucker and Trent will be able to spot up on their favorite spots on the 3 point line in transition, but they'll have the luxury of only taking open looks. Duval will often go coast to coast and finish on his own. Then we bring Javin off the bench, another running/jumping athlete in transition. Let's hope Marques can run up and down enough to get on the court. This is going to be a fast team that Coach K will encourage to run. The opposing defense won't be able to get set (yes, Trey Duval is THAT fast folks), and we should draw a ton of fouls with the athletes we have attacking the rim. The only hole I'm seeing in the operation is a strong backup PG to blow Duval when he's winded, but maybe Goldwire can come in and keep pushing the speed. This team will be a Ferrari with the foot on the gas pedal. With solid rebounding expected as well, it's going to be tough for anyone to slow us down.

[brevity]

That's not true. He didn't mention Duke's depth at all in the post game press conference. In the TV interview, he did say we need to get deeper, but didn't say anything about taking losses.

You all misunderstand. Coach K only meant that the team needs to resist superficiality and be more introspective.

And, as always, he will lead by example. Expect him to strike more pensive poses on the sideline, with newly stitched elbow patches on his jackets, as he fine-tunes his 6-player rotation.

[Jeffrey]

devilsince1977 has the most creative "memory playing tricks on you" recollection of Coach K's quote so far, with the having to take some acceptable losses to accomplish the goal of going 9-10 deep. We remember what we want to remember sometimes.

Yep, I thought I had logged onto the wrong site when I read "he might have to take some losses".

[Jeffrey]

You all misunderstand. Coach K only meant that the team needs to resist superficiality and be more introspective.

And, as always, he will lead by example. Expect him to strike more pensive poses on the sideline, with newly stitched elbow patches on his jackets, as he fine-tunes his 6-player rotation.

Yep, K needs to go deeper in his wardrobe.

[cbarry]

Agree with you, flyingdutchdevil. Coach K has never, nor will be ever, used his bench much at all. The starting 5 get the majority of the minutes, and subs get very few.

Barring injuries (...and we know THAT goes at Duke!), Allen, Duval, Bagley, Carter, Trent are locks to start (32-40 min each). Bolden will get maybe 8-10 minutes of burn, Tucker and Delaurier maybe 4-7 minutes each , White and Vrank 2 min each, everyone else less than 1 minute each.

Where is that minutes prediction contest thread for 2017-2018? I am pretty sure I won it last year.



I'll believe it when I see it.

If the 8th man averages at least 8 minutes in the first five ACC games, I'll believe that Coach K went deeper. But with this roster? I doubt it.

[DukieInBrasil]

I really think this team's strength is going to be in transition and speeding the game up. I look forward to it, an exciting style of bball to watch. Duval is going to push push push the ball with extreme speed. Bagley, Carter, and Grayson will be running the lanes and can all finish with authority. Tucker and Trent will be able to spot up on their favorite spots on the 3 point line in transition, but they'll have the luxury of only taking open looks. Duval will often go coast to coast and finish on his own. Then we bring Javin off the bench, another running/jumping athlete in transition. Let's hope Marques can run up and down enough to get on the court. This is going to be a fast team that Coach K will encourage to run. The opposing defense won't be able to get set (yes, Trey Duval is THAT fast folks), and we should draw a ton of fouls with the athletes we have attacking the rim. The only hole I'm seeing in the operation is a strong backup PG to blow Duval when he's winded, but maybe Goldwire can come in and keep pushing the speed. This team will be a Ferrari with the foot on the gas pedal. With solid rebounding expected as well, it's going to be tough for anyone to slow us down.

i have a strong suspicion that Grayson will be the backup PG, not Goldwire. If both Duval and Grayson go w/o injury this year, i wouldn't be surprised to see Goldwire take a redshirt (if he does, and organizes his time well, he could take 2 degrees from Duke and be well prepared for the future).
If this team becomes a running team, as you suggest, i also suspect that Bolden would end up withe short end of the stick. Bolden is not slow, nor would he have no place on a running team, but his skillset might not come through as well. I'm hoping that both Tucker and Trent are solid enough from 3 to warrant chucking the ball out to their favorite spots.
I also suspect that this team will be a stronger rebounding team than we've seen lately from Duke, and hopefully the outlet pass is taught well. I don't remember a more frustrating year than last year wrt fast break due to the utter lack of PG play. There's no way we could possibly be worse this year, and with a highly regarded PG on board, i look forward to not being ashamed of the Duke transition offense.

[DukieInBrasil]

Agree with you, flyingdutchdevil. Coach K has never, nor will be ever, used his bench much at all. The starting 5 get the majority of the minutes, and subs get very few.

Barring injuries (...and we know THAT goes at Duke!), Allen, Duval, Bagley, Carter, Trent are locks to start (32-40 min each). Bolden will get maybe 8-10 minutes of burn, Tucker and Delaurier maybe 4-7 minutes each , White and Vrank 2 min each, everyone else less than 1 minute each.

Where is that minutes prediction contest thread for 2017-2018? I am pretty sure I won it last year.

i think you are seriously "misoverestimating" how many minutes Bagley and Carter will play. 1st, Fr. tend to not play as many minutes as upperclassmen, for a variety of reasons (fatigue, fouls, Fr.). 2nd, big men tend to play fewer minutes than guards or wings. 3rd, i think you are misunderestimating Bolden, he played well below expectations last year (injuries were certainly a big factor), but he has a serious experience advantage. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 3 of them play roughly the same amount of minutes this year at the 4 and 5, with Javin getting the lion's share of the remainder of those 4 & 5 minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if they each got ~25 mpg, leaving Javin with ~5 mpg. I'd love to see Vrank play more than he has, but 80 total minutes in a 40 game season seems about right to me :eek:
Now, if K isn't getting what he needs from the guys we see as wings, and puts either Bagley or Javin out at the 3, that would distort the distribution a bit.
Also, a final nit to pick, i'm pretty sure that you just assumed that he'll play a ton of minutes, but your "everyone else" comment puts Grayson Allen at less than 1 mpg :cool:

[DavidBenAkiva]

We have scoring and driving, so the biggest need on the wing is defense, and an occasional open look at a 3. We need another Matt Jones.
I think DeLaurier would be fantastic if his athletism would let him keep up with smaller guards. Tucker maybe, but it seems so rare that a non elite freshman gets any meaningful minutes.
I really want to see Bolden, Carter and Bagley out there at the same time, but that's probably not a lineup that's sustainable or that we may even see.

I want to bump this from DevilFalcon. To me, it seems the focus on how the offense will work is beside the point. With and without a point guard or a back-to-the-basket post scorer, or elite wing, Duke has a consistently great offense. Duke is almost always among the most efficient offenses in the country over the past 10 years. What seems to drive the team's success is defensive efficiency. Can we generate turnovers at a high rate? Can we get defensive rebounds to limit putbacks and easy buckets? Can we prevent dribble penetration or block a shot when the shooter gets near the rim? That's what's going to matter.

I put this table together showing Duke's trends over the past decade. It shows the year, the team's rank in Ken Pomeroy's system, and then his offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. When Duke has a good defense, the team goes much farther in the tournament. Sometimes, as in 2015, the defense improved during the tournament. Still, the team's profile at the end of February more or less set their trajectory.



Year
KenPom Rank
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
NCAA Tournament Result


2017
14
6
47
2nd Round


2016
17
4
86
Sweet 16


2015
3
3
12
National Champions


2014
8
1
87
1st Round


2013
6
4
26
Elite 8


2012
19
8
17
1st Round


2011
3
6
10
Sweet 16


2010
1
1
5
National Champions


2009
9
7
31
Sweet 16


2008
6
14
7
2nd Round



We won't know how this team will do on the defensive side of the court for some months. They certainly have the athleticism to be good defenders on an individual basis. Will they be able to translate that into good team defense? The jury's out. Check back in this November to see if we can get a verdict.

[cbarry]

Hi DukieInBrasil,
Bagley is supposedly the second coming of Lebron or Jordan, or better than those guys. We shall see, but I think he gets major minutes. Carter is a stud also, and will get lots of playing time. Javin didn't play much last year, even when there were opportunities, and I don't see him getting much time. Bolden may get more time than I estimated, but it will depend on how well Bagley and Carter play. Those guys have a much higher ceiling than Bolden.

And Allen is definitely in my starting 5. I listed him first in my original post. Allen will play 36-40 minutes every game.



i think you are seriously "misoverestimating" how many minutes Bagley and Carter will play. 1st, Fr. tend to not play as many minutes as upperclassmen, for a variety of reasons (fatigue, fouls, Fr.). 2nd, big men tend to play fewer minutes than guards or wings. 3rd, i think you are misunderestimating Bolden, he played well below expectations last year (injuries were certainly a big factor), but he has a serious experience advantage. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 3 of them play roughly the same amount of minutes this year at the 4 and 5, with Javin getting the lion's share of the remainder of those 4 & 5 minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if they each got ~25 mpg, leaving Javin with ~5 mpg. I'd love to see Vrank play more than he has, but 80 total minutes in a 40 game season seems about right to me :eek:
Now, if K isn't getting what he needs from the guys we see as wings, and puts either Bagley or Javin out at the 3, that would distort the distribution a bit.
Also, a final nit to pick, i'm pretty sure that you just assumed that he'll play a ton of minutes, but your "everyone else" comment puts Grayson Allen at less than 1 mpg :cool:

[atoomer0881]

Year
KenPom Rank
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
NCAA Tournament Result


2017
14
6
47
2nd Round


2016
17
4
86
Sweet 16


2015
3
3
12
National Champions


2014
8
1
87
1st Round


2013
6
4
26
Elite 8


2012
19
8
17
1st Round


2011
3
6
10
Sweet 16


2010
1
1
5
National Champions


2009
9
7
31
Sweet 16


2008
6
14
7
2nd Round



We won't know how this team will do on the defensive side of the court for some months. They certainly have the athleticism to be good defenders on an individual basis. Will they be able to translate that into good team defense? The jury's out. Check back in this November to see if we can get a verdict.

Interesting that we had pretty good defenses in 2008 and 2012 and yet those resulted in first and second round exits

[Kedsy]

Interesting that we had pretty good defenses in 2008 and 2012 and yet those resulted in first and second round exits

We didn't. His table is wrong. Our final defensive KenPom rank in 2012 was #78.

More importantly, I feel obligated to point out for the zillionth time that you can't use a ranking that includes NCAAT games to predict NCAAT performance.

That said, I agree with DBA that our defense will be the key to how good a team we have this season.

[atoomer0881]

We didn't. His table is wrong. Our final defensive KenPom rank in 2012 was #78.

More importantly, I feel obligated to point out for the zillionth time that you can't use a ranking that includes NCAAT games to predict NCAAT performance.

That said, I agree with DBA that our defense will be the key to how good a team we have this season.

That makes so much more sense. And I agree with your second sentence. Using NCAAT games to predict NCAAT performance is self-serving. I'd much rather use our defensive ranking at the end of the season to predict how we will fare in the tournament.

And yea I agree with you and DBA that defense will be key (then again - isn't defense always key to winning championships?;))

[jipops]

I think it is important to note that K sees depth as more than just sheer number of bodies to put in a rotation. I think K sees playing 7 guys where 1 or 2 can play multiple positions as actually being the same or deeper than playing 8 guys where each plays one defined role.

The addition of Bagley is not simply adding an extremely talented player to the roster. It has the potential of adding a player who can fill in for all 3 front court positions which in itself provides depth.

[DavidBenAkiva]

We didn't. His table is wrong. Our final defensive KenPom rank in 2012 was #78.

More importantly, I feel obligated to point out for the zillionth time that you can't use a ranking that includes NCAAT games to predict NCAAT performance.

That said, I agree with DBA that our defense will be the key to how good a team we have this season.

First time using the table feature of this forum, and it didn't go so well. Let's try bullet points!

2017: KenPom Rank 14, OffE 6, DefE 47, NCAAT 2nd Round
2016: KenPom Rank 17, OffE 4, DefE 86, NCAAT Sweet 16
2015: KenPom Rank 3, OffE 3, DefE 12, NCAAT National Champions
2014: KenPom Rank 8, OffE 1, DefE 87, NCAAT 1st Round
2013: KenPom Rank 6, OffE 4, DefE 26, NCAAT Elite 8
2012: KenPom Rank 19, OffE 8, DefE 78, NCAAT 1st Round
2011: KenPom Rank 3, OffE 6, DefE 10, NCAAT Sweet 16
2010: KenPom Rank 1, OffE 1, DefE 5, NCAAT National Champions
2009: KenPom Rank 9, OffE 7, DefE 31, NCAAT Sweet 16
2008: KenPom Rank 6, OffE 14, DefE 7, NCAAT 2nd Round

Kedsey is correct that the final KenPom rankings are not good predictors of the NCAA Tournament as they include the tournament performance. But that's a small sample and the data helps to illuminate the broader points that 1) Duke is consistently a good if not great offense and 2) the team's defensive development plays a very large role in how far the team goes. As I mentioned in my original post, the team's defensive profile in late February is going to have a strong influence on how good the team will be in March.

Over the past decade, when the team was outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency, they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament 2 our of 3 trips. When the team has ended up in the top 50, the team has won 2 National Championships, 4 ACC Tournaments, an Elite 8, and 3 Sweet 16's.

[Kedsy]

First time using the table feature of this forum, and it didn't go so well. Let's try bullet points!

2017: KenPom Rank 14, OffE 6, DefE 47, NCAAT 2nd Round
2016: KenPom Rank 17, OffE 4, DefE 86, NCAAT Sweet 16
2015: KenPom Rank 3, OffE 3, DefE 12, NCAAT National Champions
2014: KenPom Rank 8, OffE 1, DefE 87, NCAAT 1st Round
2013: KenPom Rank 6, OffE 4, DefE 26, NCAAT Elite 8
2012: KenPom Rank 19, OffE 8, DefE 78, NCAAT 1st Round
2011: KenPom Rank 3, OffE 6, DefE 10, NCAAT Sweet 16
2010: KenPom Rank 1, OffE 1, DefE 5, NCAAT National Champions
2009: KenPom Rank 9, OffE 7, DefE 31, NCAAT Sweet 16
2008: KenPom Rank 6, OffE 14, DefE 7, NCAAT 2nd Round

Kedsey is correct that the final KenPom rankings are not good predictors of the NCAA Tournament as they include the tournament performance. But that's a small sample and the data helps to illuminate the broader points that 1) Duke is consistently a good if not great offense and 2) the team's defensive development plays a very large role in how far the team goes. As I mentioned in my original post, the team's defensive profile in late February is going to have a strong influence on how good the team will be in March.

Over the past decade, when the team was outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency, they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament 2 our of 3 trips. When the team has ended up in the top 50, the team has won 2 National Championships, 4 ACC Tournaments, an Elite 8, and 3 Sweet 16's.

I'm not sure that we were inside the top 50 in late February 2015. I can check that later today when I get to my computer.

[SCMatt33]

I'm not sure that we were inside the top 50 in late February 2015. I can check that later today when I get to my computer.

I'm not sure if KenPom changed his formula (he often applies those retroactively to better help future predictions) or something, but I see I discrepancy. On his site, KenPom does now have a downloadable sheet for pre tourney numbers, which lists Duke at the #37 adjusted defense. Using archive.org however, his page had Duke at #57 for adjusted defensive efficiency through games played on selection Sunday. That second number matches my recollection on the topic.

[uh_no]

I'm not sure if KenPom changed his formula (he often applies those retroactively to better help future predictions) or something, but I see I discrepancy. On his site, KenPom does now have a downloadable sheet for pre tourney numbers, which lists Duke at the #37 adjusted defense. Using archive.org however, his page had Duke at #57 for adjusted defensive efficiency through games played on selection Sunday. That second number matches my recollection on the topic.

he changed everything before this past season. moved from his log5 to a more linear approach, I think?

[SCMatt33]

he changed everything before this past season. moved from his log5 to a more linear approach, I think?

Close. He changed his Pythagorean rating to a lineear efficiency margin. But that only impacts how offensive and defensive efficiency are translated into an overall rating, not the offensive and defensive ratings themselves. He probably did change the efficiency formula as well at some point, though.

[DukieInBrasil]

Hi DukieInBrasil,
Bagley is supposedly the second coming of Lebron or Jordan, or better than those guys. We shall see, but I think he gets major minutes. Carter is a stud also, and will get lots of playing time. Javin didn't play much last year, even when there were opportunities, and I don't see him getting much time. Bolden may get more time than I estimated, but it will depend on how well Bagley and Carter play. Those guys have a much higher ceiling than Bolden.

And Allen is definitely in my starting 5. I listed him first in my original post. Allen will play 36-40 minutes every game.

This sort of thing gets said every so often. I'm sure Bagley is very, very good, but Jordan didn't play 35mpg as a Fr. Who knows how much Bron woulda played as a Fr in college, but in the NBA he played 39.5 mpg, which would be equivalent to 32.9 mpg in a 40 minute game. So, let's lower the bar for how many mpg we think Bagley will play. Additionally, on that CLE squad they had SG of note DaJuan Wagner and Ricky Davis. At SF a menagerie of guys i've never heard of. This is to say that Bron had no competition for minutes. Bagley, however, will have plenty of competition for minutes. So, i don't think it's outrageous to estimate 25 mpg as a low end for Bagley and 30 mpg as a high end.
I will always reserve my estimates for how high the ceiling is for Fr. since they've never played college ball. I've seen Bolden play, hurt, and while he left a lot to be desired, i saw a good motor, good hands, decent rebounding and a rushed, somewhat confused player on offense. I'm sure the rushed/confused nature of Bolden's game will not show up as much this year. Besides, who cares how high their ceiling is, what's important is how well they play at. this. moment. I'm looking forward to Bagley and Carter being very good. I'm also looking for Bolden to not only be much better than last year but to give them a serious run for their money when it comes to playing time.

[flyingdutchdevil]

1. Goldwire
2. O'Connell
3. Tucker
4. White
5. DeLaurier

That's probably a better line-up than Pitt, BC, or NC State this year.

[uh_no]

This sort of thing gets said every so often. I'm sure Bagley is very, very good, but Jordan didn't play 35mpg as a Fr. Who knows how much Bron woulda played as a Fr in college, but in the NBA he played 39.5 mpg, which would be equivalent to 32.9 mpg in a 40 minute game. So, let's lower the bar for how many mpg we think Bagley will play. Additionally, on that CLE squad they had SG of note DaJuan Wagner and Ricky Davis. At SF a menagerie of guys i've never heard of. This is to say that Bron had no competition for minutes. Bagley, however, will have plenty of competition for minutes. So, i don't think it's outrageous to estimate 25 mpg as a low end for Bagley and 30 mpg as a high end.
I will always reserve my estimates for how high the ceiling is for Fr. since they've never played college ball. I've seen Bolden play, hurt, and while he left a lot to be desired, i saw a good motor, good hands, decent rebounding and a rushed, somewhat confused player on offense. I'm sure the rushed/confused nature of Bolden's game will not show up as much this year. Besides, who cares how high their ceiling is, what's important is how well they play at. this. moment. I'm looking forward to Bagley and Carter being very good. I'm also looking for Bolden to not only be much better than last year but to give them a serious run for their money when it comes to playing time.

The only reservation I have is that freshman bigs rarely get that much at duke. okafor only got 30 MPG, and that was with little competition there. Carter, bolden and bagley will all be fighting for the same minutes, though perhaps spread across two positions.

So ultimatley you're right. 30 mpg is high end in best case. I could see the low end even at below 20 if there are defensive issues.

[proelitedota]

1. Goldwire
2. O'Connell
3. Tucker
4. White
5. DeLaurier

That's probably a better line-up than Pitt, BC, or NC State this year.

Replace Javin with Vrank. If everyone was a senior then this group can place top 4 in the ACC with K's ability to maximize his team during regular season.

Tucker and OConnel will average 15 pts a night.

[DukieInBrasil]

The only reservation I have is that freshman bigs rarely get that much at duke. okafor only got 30 MPG, and that was with little competition there. Carter, bolden and bagley will all be fighting for the same minutes, though perhaps spread across two positions.

So ultimatley you're right. 30 mpg is high end in best case. I could see the low end even at below 20 if there are defensive issues.

i agree with you there. I don't think Okafor could have handled more than 30. He had a few bouts of foul trouble and had a stretch of games where he played somewhat injured. Additionally, his defense was atrocious, even in college, so if he had had competition for C/PF minutes, i don't think he would have broken 25 mpg.
My estimate was an attempt to temper on an earlier estimate that all of Carter, Bagley and Trent were gonna play 32-40 minutes in every game.

[MarkD83]

So another way to look at the roster is potential blue white teams. Starters in bold

White
Allen
Duval
Besser
White
DeLaurier
Bagley III
Bolden


Blue
Trent
O'Connell
Goldwire
Tucker
Carter
Robinson
Vrank

[brevity]

So another way to look at the roster is potential blue white teams. Starters in bold

White
Allen
Duval
Besser
White
DeLaurier
Bagley III
Bolden


Blue
Trent
O'Connell
Goldwire
Tucker
Carter
Robinson
Vrank

Maybe. But I'll make a guarantee today: when splitting the roster into Blue and White for the scrimmage, Coach K is going to put all the seniors on the same team.

[timmy c]

Maybe. But I'll make a guarantee today: when splitting the roster into Blue and White for the scrimmage, Coach K is going to put all the seniors on the same team.

Mark did put all the seniors on the same team. :-)

How about the freshman vs the upperclassman?
Duval, Goldwire, Trent, o'connell, tucker, carter, bagley
Vs
Allen, besser, white, delaurier, Robinson, vrankovic, bolden

[flyingdutchdevil]

So another way to look at the roster is potential blue white teams. Starters in bold

White
Allen
Duval
Besser
White
DeLaurier
Bagley III
Bolden


Blue
Trent
O'Connell
Goldwire
Tucker
Carter
Robinson
Vrank

Gimme the White team any day of the week and twice on Sunday. You gotta trade Trevon or Allen for O'Connell or Tucker, IMO.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Mark did put all the seniors on the same team. :-)

How about the freshman vs the upperclassman?
Duval, Goldwire, Trent, o'connell, tucker, carter, bagley
Vs
Allen, besser, white, delaurier, Robinson, vrankovic, bolden

I'd be a fan of the Upperclassmen vs. Freshmen game.

Allen, White, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic with Besser and Robinson off the bench

vs.

Duval, Trent, Jr., Tucker, Carter, Jr., Begley III with Goldwire and O'Connell off the bench

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd be a fan of the Upperclassmen vs. Freshmen game.

Allen, White, DeLaurier, Bolden, Vrankovic with Besser and Robinson off the bench

vs.

Duval, Trent, Jr., Tucker, Carter, Jr., Begley III with Goldwire and O'Connell off the bench

I'm worried that Allen would take out the knees of our talented group of freshman ;)