Welcome to Duke, Marvin Bagley!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Welcome to Duke! LGD GTHc!

[atoomer0881]

welcome to duke! Lgd gthc!

yessssssssss christmas came early this year!!!!

[bigperm13]

Pleasure to have you on the squad, MB3!

[sagegrouse]

yessssssssss christmas came early this year!!!!

Quoting Mae West, "Too much of a good thing is... wonderful!"

[Gooch]

35! Going old school Blue Devils!

[msdukie]

What is the point of having retired numbers if they can be unretired?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Welcome Marvin!

So I guess Trent plays the 4 and Carter, Bagley, and Bolden fight it out for the 5? :rolleyes:

[MarkD83]

Is it too early to talk about minutes

[CoachJ10]

Great recruiting begets more great recruiting. K really has adapted to the times.

I wonder how flexible I will be in life when I am 70...

[Utley]

Not to take anything away from K but I hear Capel was key here - including the drive to reclassify.

[Neals384]

I thought he did a great job with the announcement. Very mature, very well-spoken. Dad seems like he'll be a fan - hope he can make it to some games.

[Ultrarunner]

Is it too early to talk about minutes

Hah! Here?

Welcome to Duke, Mr. Bagley!

[WHOneedsSOX]

Let's goooooooo!

[Furniture]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J98xoeXp-7Y

if you didn't see his announcement. Seems like a very nice young man!
Welcome!!

[burnspbesq]

I thought he did a great job with the announcement. Very mature, very well-spoken. Dad seems like he'll be a fan - hope he can make it to some games.

Dad has roots in Durham, and played football at A&T.

[Henderson]

Welcome, Mr. Bagley!

By my count this means 4 probable first round picks in the 2018 draft?

[DukieTiger]

Welcome, Mr. Bagley!

By my count this means 4 probable first round picks in the 2018 draft?

My heart tells me Trent will be back, but we should probably prepare ourselves to lose any top 10 player after a year these days.

So, could be 5 first rounders?

Additionally, Duke's (record) streak of top-3 picks in the draft has some hope of continuing.

[DangerDevil]

Welcome, Mr. Bagley!

By my count this means 4 probable first round picks in the 2018 draft?

4 in the recruiting class, good chance their are 6 1st round picks on the team when you add Grayson and Bolden.

[jipops]

Welcome Marvin!

So I guess Trent plays the 4 and Carter, Bagley, and Bolden fight it out for the 5? :rolleyes:

I think there could be some interesting front court lineup tweaking that goes on throughout the season. There has been some positive buzz about Bolden in the offseason. Jeff Goodman has mentioned some of this. He may be motivated to get his name back on those mock draft boards. And I really don't see a healthy 5-star recruit like Carter spending time sitting on the bench during tipoff, unless he gets hurt (yes, I'll shut my mouth there). I somehow would be AND wouldn't be surprised if we see Bagley spend some time at the 3...some..., but my money is on K's goto lineup featuring Trent, Bagley, and Carter along the front court. Bagley looks like the perfect stretch 4 for Duke with his ability to handle on the perimeter on offense and his terrific length on defense.

Have to think this likely closes the door for Javin and/or Vrank having any meaningful minutes this season. At best I still think K will go with 7, definitely during ACC play.

[Troublemaker]

Post from middle of July:


Current national title odds for next season. Might be a good time to put some jellybeans down on Duke at 10 to 1.

If Bagley-to-Duke happens, I will re-post the updated odds. They will change SIGNIFICANTLY.

http://i.imgur.com/iNo7efm.png


Yep:

http://i.imgur.com/37dMnCn.png

[mattman91]

4 in the recruiting class, good chance their are 6 1st round picks on the team when you add Grayson and Bolden.

Yeah...

Carter, Bagley, Duval, Allen, Bolden, and Trent are all potential first rounders.

That's never been done before has it?

[bigperm13]

DR trip cancelled. Coach K has knee replacement surgery now instead of later. Bagley reclassifies and commits. Connect the dots.

[MrPoon]

He said only his family knew but I still wonder if the DR cancellation had anything to do with this announcement and its timing.

Any way we could play with two basketballs next year?

[kAzE]

Post from middle of July:




Yep:

http://i.imgur.com/37dMnCn.png

So, the addition of 1 player just doubled our odds to win the title in the eyes of Vegas?

This guy must be pretty decent at basketball.

Welcome to Duke, Mr. Bagley!

[Troublemaker]

High School Stats (http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/marvin-bagley-iii/polnAbMmEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm)

AAU Stats (http://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/17820375)


Welcome, Marvin!

[BullBlue]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J98xoeXp-7Y

if you didn't see his announcement. Seems like a very nice young man!
Welcome!!

Thanks for the link. I like that he mentioned that the current players were encouraging him to come.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

He said only his family knew but I still wonder if the DR cancellation had anything to do with this announcement and its timing.

Any way we could play with two basketballs next year?

Well, at least Danny Ferry HAD to have known. He gave permission for his number to be used.
Love, Ima

[DukeTrinity11]

Duke has just assembled the greatest recruiting class in modern college basketball history.

Now lets go hang banner #6.

[Trey21]

we've been lucky enough to have some monster classes to come through the ranks. most have delivered on the hype, some have become champions, but at what point, just speaking from a preseason perspective does the title of greatest recruiting class of all time come up? I hope this talent can mold into a team while at duke, will enjoy watching them grow in the durham and beyond.

[proelitedota]

What is the point of having retired numbers if they can be unretired?

The jerseys aren't coming down from the rafters. This is just Bagley borrowing Danny's jersey for a bit.

[Edouble]

What is the point of having retired numbers if they can be unretired?

Yeah, I am left with a funny taste in my mouth. First we allow 0 and 1 to be worn. I accepted that.

This is difficult.

We've been chastising the Heels for years over their "honored" jerseys. And now 35 is going to be worn again. I'm really disappointed.

[Hingeknocker]

Yeah, I am left with a funny taste in my mouth. First we allow 0 and 1 to be worn. I accepted that.

This is difficult.

We've been chastising the Heels for years over their "honored" jerseys. And now 35 is going to be worn again. I'm really disappointed.

The reason I chastise the Heels for their honored jerseys is because it's comically easy to be honored, not because numbers are re-worn.

There was always going to be a day when a retired jersey had to be unretired, unless the NCAA changed its numbering rules. I have no problem with this being the way that happened. Though that was the most surprising part of the announcement!

[LasVegas]

Great news. I'm still worried about the shooting ability of this team. Major spacing concerns. Hopefully Trent and/or Duval can deliver.

[gam7]

Well, at least Danny Ferry HAD to have known. He gave permission for his number to be used.
Love, Ima

Well, even with the jersey number discussion, you don't REALLY know. See Barnes, Harrison.

[MrPoon]

Great news. I'm still worried about the shooting ability of this team. Major spacing concerns. Hopefully Trent and/or Duval can deliver.

Grayson's still on the team too and he can shoot. Trent will have lots of open looks.

For me the question will be can K get them to defend enough?
There is no Jefferson waiting to bail out mistakes this time around.

[LasVegas]

Grayson's still on the team too and he can shoot. Trent will have lots of open looks.

For me the question will be can K get them to defend enough?
There is no Jefferson waiting to bail out mistakes this time around.

But if Grayson is the only reliable shooter, I can see some huge issues with spacing. From what I've read, Duval shot less than 20% from 3 and Trent isn't known for being a reliable shooter as well. So if teams can just focus on Grayson and clog the paint up, could be a problem.

Defense is always a worry it seems. I feel more confident this year. Trent and Duval seem like they will be good defenders and I think the bigs will be better able to protect the rim this year.

[WHOneedsSOX]

But if Grayson is the only reliable shooter, I can see some huge issues with spacing. From what I've read, Duval shot less than 20% from 3 and Trent isn't known for being a reliable shooter as well. So if teams can just focus on Grayson and clog the paint up, could be a problem.

Defense is always a worry it seems. I feel more confident this year. Trent and Duval seem like they will be good defenders and I think the bigs will be better able to protect the rim this year.

Could probably run a lot of pick and roll with Duval and Bagley. Allen in one corner and Carter at the 15-17 foot mark in the other.

[mattman91]

But if Grayson is the only reliable shooter, I can see some huge issues with spacing. From what I've read, Duval shot less than 20% from 3 and Trent isn't known for being a reliable shooter as well. So if teams can just focus on Grayson and clog the paint up, could be a problem.

Defense is always a worry it seems. I feel more confident this year. Trent and Duval seem like they will be good defenders and I think the bigs will be better able to protect the rim this year.

Tucker is supposed to be a very good shooter. Wouldn't be surprised seeing him log some minutes

[BD80]

What is the point of having retired numbers if they can be unretired?


Not to take anything away from K but I hear Capel was key here - including the drive to reclassify.

Let give a big assist to Danny Ferry - allowing a recruit to wear HIS number. Duke family.

Duke's recruiting is simply astonishing right now - but choosing to play for the GOAT AND having an opportunity to attend DUKE AND becoming a part of the Duke family does seem like an easy sell.

Pretty great weekend - but not for ol' roy. Wonder how he feels having the Jones and Bagley announcements come right before his little chat with the COI? Bad things come in three!

Welcome to Duke Marvin! You sound like a great young man ...

Does this mean another natty is in the Bag?

[CharlestonDave]

I remember reading somewhere on another post about him not playing and then entering the 2018 draft. What is that all about?

[WHOneedsSOX]

I remember reading somewhere on another post about him not playing and then entering the 2018 draft. What is that all about?

I don't think he's been declared eligible for the 2017-18 season by the NCAA yet.

[plimnko]

Yeah, I am left with a funny taste in my mouth. First we allow 0 and 1 to be worn. I accepted that.

This is difficult.

We've been chastising the Heels for years over their "honored" jerseys. And now 35 is going to be worn again. I'm really disappointed.


i understand your perspective. however, one thing you hear from every duke player/recruit........duke is a family. families share. and as far as chasing the heels.....given what's come to light, i don't want to be ANYTHING like the cheat heels.

[CharlestonDave]

I don't think he's been declared eligible for the 2017-18 season by the NCAA yet.

Thanks. What is the procedure? Is it because he reclassified or is it something else? What is the possibility that the NCAA would not clear him eligible?

[MarkD83]

Let give a big assist to Danny Ferry - allowing a recruit to wear HIS number. Duke family.

Duke's recruiting is simply astonishing right now - but choosing to play for the GOAT AND having an opportunity to attend DUKE AND becoming a part of the Duke family does seem like an easy sell.

Pretty great weekend - but not for ol' roy. Wonder how he feels having the Jones and Bagley announcements come right before his little chat with the COI? Bad things come in three!

Welcome to Duke Marvin! You sound like a great young man ...

Does this mean another natty is in the Bag?

I am not being pessimistic but the ghosts of 1999 and 2017 tell us to not count on a natty just because there is a lot of talent on the team.

[TKG]

I am not being pessimistic but the ghosts of 1999 and 2017 tell us to not count on a natty just because there is a lot of talent on the team.

We are certainly winning the offseason but if last season taught us anything it would be "wait and see".

[subzero02]

I am not being pessimistic but the ghosts of 1999 and 2017 tell us to not count on a natty just because there is a lot of talent on the team.

1999 definitely brought the Duke Brand back to the national forefront but we just couldn't Will ourselves to victory in tampa. To be Frank, the Chase for the national title in 2017 never quite got on track. 2018 is in the Bag.

[plimnko]

I don't think he's been declared eligible for the 2017-18 season by the NCAA yet.

take it for what it's worth, but according to this article......he's eligible

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/bagley-chooses-duke-could-make-blue-devils-preseason-no-1/16880935/

[jv001]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J98xoeXp-7Y

if you didn't see his announcement. Seems like a very nice young man!
Welcome!!

It seems Duke began recruiting Marvin while he was in the ninth grade. He even said they offered him at that young age. Glad to have you aboard young man. GoDuke!

[DevilHorse]

So, the addition of 1 player just doubled our odds to win the title in the eyes of Vegas?

This guy must be pretty decent at basketball.

Welcome to Duke, Mr. Bagley!

Ahem, Doubled our probability of winning, halved our Odds of winning.
Don't you guys go to the track ?? :rolleyes:;)

Larry
DevilHorse

[CDu]

take it for what it's worth, but according to this article...he's eligible

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/bagley-chooses-duke-could-make-blue-devils-preseason-no-1/16880935/

I think that article is mistaken. The decision on eligibility still looms. Hopefully it will work out. But it is still an unknown at this point.

[devildeac]

Tucker is supposed to be a very good shooter. Wouldn't be surprised seeing him log some minutes

Ahh, but how many minutes, O thou esteemed champion of the 2015 Rosterbation competition? ;)

[devildeac]

1999 definitely brought the Duke Brand back to the national forefront but we just couldn't Will ourselves to victory in tampa. To be Frank, the Chase for the national title in 2017 never quite got on track. 2018 is in the Bag.

I hope you don't become a Thornton in our side with a post like that.

[CharlestonDave]

I think that article is mistaken. The decision on eligibility still looms. Hopefully it will work out. But it is still an unknown at this point.

I am still confused. Is it because he reclassified or might it be something else?

[CharlestonDave]

We are certainly winning the offseason but if last season taught us anything it would be "wait and see".

Spoken by a true realist !!

I totally agree

[JGB]

Quoting Mae West, "Too much of a good thing is... wonderful!"

Or as Bob Weir sang: "Too much of everything is just enough..."

[CDu]

I am still confused. Is it because he reclassified or might it be something else?

Yes. He only recently filed paperwork to reclassify. The NCAA still has to approve his transcripts as sufficient to meet the standards necessary for eligibility. That may or may not be a formality as he was only in high school for 3 years.

[Spanarkel]

I think there could be some interesting front court lineup tweaking that goes on throughout the season. There has been some positive buzz about Bolden in the offseason. Jeff Goodman has mentioned some of this. He may be motivated to get his name back on those mock draft boards. And I really don't see a healthy 5-star recruit like Carter spending time sitting on the bench during tipoff, unless he gets hurt (yes, I'll shut my mouth there). I somehow would be AND wouldn't be surprised if we see Bagley spend some time at the 3...some..., but my money is on K's goto lineup featuring Trent, Bagley, and Carter along the front court. Bagley looks like the perfect stretch 4 for Duke with his ability to handle on the perimeter on offense and his terrific length on defense.

Have to think this likely closes the door for Javin and/or Vrank having any meaningful minutes this season. At best I still think K will go with 7, definitely during ACC play.

I'm pulling hard for Marques to contribute mightily, but this video shows us that there's work to be done(as expected given his limited minutes last season). Thrilled to have MBIII on board! LGD!

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ct wgr%5Eauthor
(video from 8/10)

[Troublemaker]

But if Grayson is the only reliable shooter, I can see some huge issues with spacing. From what I've read, Duval shot less than 20% from 3 and Trent isn't known for being a reliable shooter as well. So if teams can just focus on Grayson and clog the paint up, could be a problem.

Shooting always seems to work out for us. I'm comfortable that we're going to end up coaxing some good shooting seasons out of reputedly bad or shaky shooters. Maybe I'm wrong and it turns out to be a problem, but the mythical poor-shooting-Duke-team has earned "need to see it to believe it" status for me.

Overall, I don't have any big question marks about this team heading into fall semester. That's different from last season's team that, heading into fall semester, had two major question marks: (1) How quickly could projected starting center Giles recover from his ACL surgery mentally and physically to get back to his old self?, (2) Can the team really contend at the highest level without a true point guard? With some hindsight, the 2016-17 team was overrated heading into fall semester. You can't be unsettled at the two crucial positions of point guard and center and still be predicting that it's going to be a '99-type season. With this upcoming season's team, I don't really see any major questions marks yet... 'yet' being the key word since they could still appear.

There are some minor concerns, i.e. things that I'm pretty sure will work out well, but they are questions until shown not to be:
(1) Bagley getting cleared by the NCAA to re-classify, although I'd be surprised if Duke and the Bagleys blundered here. I think he'll be eligible.
(2) Perimeter depth.
(3) With so many star players, can everyone share and stay happy with their role?
(4) Defense. But with much better defensive talent on hand, I think we'll have a very good defensive team this season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Shooting always seems to work out for us. I'm comfortable that we're going to end up coaxing some good shooting seasons out of reputedly bad or shaky shooters. Maybe I'm wrong and it turns out to be a problem, but the mythical poor-shooting-Duke-team has earned "need to see it to believe it" status for me.

Overall, I don't have any big question marks about this team heading into fall semester. That's different from last season's team that, heading into fall semester, had two major question marks: (1) How quickly could projected starting center Giles recover from his ACL surgery mentally and physically to get back to his old self?, (2) Can the team really contend at the highest level without a true point guard? With some hindsight, the 2016-17 team was overrated heading into fall semester. You can't be unsettled at the two crucial positions of point guard and center and still be predicting that it's going to be a '99-type season. With this upcoming season's team, I don't really see any major questions marks yet... 'yet' being the key word since they could still appear.

There are some minor concerns, i.e. things that I'm pretty sure will work out well, but they are questions until shown not to be:
(1) Bagley getting cleared by the NCAA to re-classify, although I'd be surprised if Duke and the Bagleys blundered here. I think he'll be eligible.
(2) Perimeter depth.
(3) With so many star players, can everyone share and stay happy with their role?
(4) Defense. But with much better defensive talent on hand, I think we'll have a very good defensive team this season.

Experience, experience, experience? Isn't that issues 1-3?

Last year we had amazing experience in the form of junior GA, senior Matty Jones, and 5th year senior/let-me-scream-at-you-for-screwing-up-a-defensive-possession AJ. This year, we have senior GA and...ummmm...yeah. With the minutes Bolden/Javin played last year, they might as well be freshman this year.

[Troublemaker]

Experience, experience, experience? Isn't that issues 1-3?

Last year we had amazing experience in the form of junior GA, senior Matty Jones, and 5th year senior/let-me-scream-at-you-for-screwing-up-a-defensive-possession AJ. This year, we have senior GA and...ummmm...yeah. With the minutes Bolden/Javin played last year, they might as well be freshman this year.

Well, doesn't that tell you that experience doesn't matter all that much? I mean, it matters in the sense that if this team stayed together 4 years (or even 2-3 years), it'd become an all-time-great team, something college basketball fans don't get to enjoy seeing anymore. But I think Kentucky and Duke have shown that you can build a strong contender with little experience. With Duke, we're following the 2015 model of having 1 senior combo-guard looking for redemption leading the way surrounded by lots and lots of great, young talent. I'm comfortable with that.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Don't you guys go to the track ?? :rolleyes:;)

Larry
DevilHorse
Only once. I saw Secretariat win the Belmont!

[CarmenWallaceWade]

Thanks. What is the procedure? Is it because he reclassified or is it something else? What is the possibility that the NCAA would not clear him eligible?

http://cbsprt.co/2uJoVvW

CBS article on possible "NCAA decision" outcomes from here.

[devilsince1977]

The NCAA is going to everything they can to get Marvin on the court. They want the #1 player on their broadcasts. Throw in Duke, Coach K, Grayson, and "Duke Hate"; they can't resist the $ that will bring.

[dukelifer]

Shooting always seems to work out for us. I'm comfortable that we're going to end up coaxing some good shooting seasons out of reputedly bad or shaky shooters. Maybe I'm wrong and it turns out to be a problem, but the mythical poor-shooting-Duke-team has earned "need to see it to believe it" status for me.

Overall, I don't have any big question marks about this team heading into fall semester. That's different from last season's team that, heading into fall semester, had two major question marks: (1) How quickly could projected starting center Giles recover from his ACL surgery mentally and physically to get back to his old self?, (2) Can the team really contend at the highest level without a true point guard? With some hindsight, the 2016-17 team was overrated heading into fall semester. You can't be unsettled at the two crucial positions of point guard and center and still be predicting that it's going to be a '99-type season. With this upcoming season's team, I don't really see any major questions marks yet... 'yet' being the key word since they could still appear.

There are some minor concerns, i.e. things that I'm pretty sure will work out well, but they are questions until shown not to be:
(1) Bagley getting cleared by the NCAA to re-classify, although I'd be surprised if Duke and the Bagleys blundered here. I think he'll be eligible.
(2) Perimeter depth.
(3) With so many star players, can everyone share and stay happy with their role?
(4) Defense. But with much better defensive talent on hand, I think we'll have a very good defensive team this season.

This team has a lot of pieces- with or without Bagley. If eligible, Bagley is a unique talent and will be a tough cover for any team. But shooting is my main concern. None of the recruits are as good as shooters Kennard, Tatum and Jackson, particularly from the line. I expect the D to be better- but it may take half a season. I am excited to see this team grow- but other than Allen- the 3's will be hard to come by.

[dukelifer]

The NCAA is going to everything they can to get Marvin on the court. They want the #1 player on their broadcasts. Throw in Duke, Coach K, Grayson, and "Duke Hate"; they can't resist the $ that will bring.

Not sure it works that way. The NCAA already has their contract for the tourney. That is the same regardless of who plays as far as I understand. The talent brings eyeballs and the pros and the networks both have motivation for Bagley to play- but not sure about the NCAA.

[Edouble]

i understand your perspective. however, one thing you hear from every duke player/recruit...duke is a family. families share. and as far as chasing the heels...given what's come to light, i don't want to be ANYTHING like the cheat heels.

I did not say "chasing", I said "chastising". Definitely a key difference.

[Troublemaker]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that. Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.

[TKG]

. But shooting is my main concern.

I might add defense to concerns.

[devilsince1977]

Not sure it works that way. The NCAA already has their contract for the tourney. That is the same regardless of who plays as far as I understand. The talent brings eyeballs and the pros and the networks both have motivation for Bagley to play- but not sure about the NCAA.

Point taken, but indirectly it does matter to the NCAA. Poor ratings will affect the next contract. If you want the big contract, you must have a product the moves the needle. That would be like saying that the NBA doesn't care if Lebron, KD, Steph, and The Beard rest every other game since they have television contracts already.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that. Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.

I thought that distinction went to Harry Giles?

Seriously peeps, I prefer optimism to pessimism, but does anyone remember what our mindset was a year ago?

[CDu]

My concerns aren't with the shooting. I think we'll be fine in that regard. But more specifically, I think our offense will look very different than last year's or other previous years. This team will have size for days. And we'll have a bunch of guys that can attack off the dribble, two of whom can also work well with a big in a pick and roll game. I also think we'll see much less of the iso play that we saw the last two years, as we will have a true PG on the team. And with multiple bigs who can score in a variety of ways, I think we'll see more utilization of those guys as well.

If we tried to play offense the same way we played last year? Yeah, I think we might struggle. But we aren't going to play offense the same way we did last year.

My concerns are going to largely revolve around experience. We're going to likely be relying on 5 freshmen as key rotation players (possibly 4 starting), and only one player in the rotation will have any significant college experience. Granted, we'll have a TON of talent. But that's a lot of pressure. I have concerns about our defense, in large part because we'll be so young.

I am hopeful that the size and athleticism in our frontcourt means we won't have rebounding issues this year, although that remains to be seen. Bolden wasn't a good rebounder last year. Carter appears to have strong rebounding instincts. No clue on Bagley. We shouldn't have frontcourt foul trouble issues this year, as we'll probably be as deep in the frontcourt as we have ever been. We do still have questions as to how we'll handle smaller/quicker PFs, or how our 2-big lineup will do in switches onto smaller players. But, hopefully that is more than offset by gains on offense. We'll see.

Experience and defense are my only real concerns/questions with this team. Talent and offense shouldn't be a problem. It may be that defense won't be either, but I want to see it first.

[CDu]

I thought that distinction went to Harry Giles?

Seriously peeps, I prefer optimism to pessimism, but does anyone remember what our mindset was a year ago?

The only caveat here is of course that last year was an injury-riddled season. Giles WAS a super prospect... prior to the second ACL tear. And he may become that again once he's fully healthy and physically confident. But he was a shell of his former self as he recovered (both mentally and physically) from his second major knee surgery and a third minor procedure that kept him out until December.

[Troublemaker]

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that.

With Marvin moving to the class of 2017, DraftExpress is trying to play catch up by looking at his high school games. They put out a couple of videos this morning of his game against Oak Hill:

Strengths (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1LshWBvbFQ)

Needs to Improve (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FRILZ1LnIE)

(Note: he was banging a lot with 2018 Duke recruit David McCormack in those clips).

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that. Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.
Agreed although there were a few articles about his strong play in the Drew Leauge this summer against pro talent. So there's that.

[DangerDevil]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that. Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.

His lack of participation with USA Basketball is a bit strange but Bagley has played well against plenty of high level competition.

http://www.drewleague.com/blog/2017/08/12/meet-marvin-bagley-iii-basketball-worlds-next-favorite-superstar/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zSP1p96_tmU

[weezie]

I'm sure it's been complimented upstream but I am very pleased that Danny Ferry gave the go ahead with #35. Major class move.

[bigperm13]

Good thing he doesn't wear #32. Laettner would have flipped him the bird.

[devilsince1977]

Good thing he doesn't wear #32. Laettner would have flipped him the bird.

Na, Laettner would have challenged him to a 3 point shooting contest to test his metal.

[dukelion]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

You'll notice that DraftExpress has a virtually empty profile for MB3: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marvin-Bagley-85466/

There's a reason for that. Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.

The real reason for that is unfortunately Draft Express is no longer as ESPN has swallowed them and their content. I'm happy for Givony because his passion got him paid but now his work also resides behind a paywall.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/the-end-of-an-era-6070/

[Troublemaker]

His lack of participation with USA Basketball is a bit strange but Bagley has played well against plenty of high level competition.

http://www.drewleague.com/blog/2017/08/12/meet-marvin-bagley-iii-basketball-worlds-next-favorite-superstar/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zSP1p96_tmU

Yeah, I had previously hypothesized that his Drew League experience helped tip his decision towards moving into the class of 2017.

That said, the composition of most teams in those summer pick-up leagues is like one marginal pro and then a bunch of guys off the street. The superstars are not going to play every game. I think Bagley's "teammates" Chris Paul and James Harden played one night with him. It IS nice that the pros who were exposed to him had complimentary things to say, though.

[flyingdutchdevil]

My concerns aren't with the shooting. I think we'll be fine in that regard. But more specifically, I think our offense will look very different than last year's or other previous years. This team will have size for days. And we'll have a bunch of guys that can attack off the dribble, two of whom can also work well with a big in a pick and roll game. I also think we'll see much less of the iso play that we saw the last two years, as we will have a true PG on the team. And with multiple bigs who can score in a variety of ways, I think we'll see more utilization of those guys as well.

If we tried to play offense the same way we played last year? Yeah, I think we might struggle. But we aren't going to play offense the same way we did last year.

My concerns are going to largely revolve around experience. We're going to likely be relying on 5 freshmen as key rotation players (possibly 4 starting), and only one player in the rotation will have any significant college experience. Granted, we'll have a TON of talent. But that's a lot of pressure. I have concerns about our defense, in large part because we'll be so young.

I am hopeful that the size and athleticism in our frontcourt means we won't have rebounding issues this year, although that remains to be seen. Bolden wasn't a good rebounder last year. Carter appears to have strong rebounding instincts. No clue on Bagley. We shouldn't have frontcourt foul trouble issues this year, as we'll probably be as deep in the frontcourt as we have ever been. We do still have questions as to how we'll handle smaller/quicker PFs, or how our 2-big lineup will do in switches onto smaller players. But, hopefully that is more than offset by gains on offense. We'll see.

Experience and defense are my only real concerns/questions with this team. Talent and offense shouldn't be a problem. It may be that defense won't be either, but I want to see it first.

My thoughts exactly. Experience is the biggest issue, followed by defense. With the exception of the 2015 NCAA run, Coach K hasn't had much success with coaching defense to OAD-laden teams. I hope that changes this year.

Offensively, this team will be stupidly fun to watch. Marvin and Duval are menaces on the fast break (something the 2016-17 team was completely inept at) and we have an incredible balance in driving, post-ups, mid-ranges, and 3pt shooting (Allen is excellent and Trent is underrated, IMO. Tucker is arguably the best 3pt in the class, although he seems to be a one-trick pony at this point). Also, Marvin, Duval, and Allen have reputations for being incredibly unselfish players (well, we know Allen is). I expect a highly efficient team on the fast break and the half court. Plus loads of offensive rebounds (Bagley may be the best offensive rebounder to come through college in a long time. If there is a skill that he's best at, it's that).

Defensively, I'm intrigued. Allen is just okay on D (he's not below average, and certainly not above average). But we have athletes at the 1, 2, 3, 4, and probably 5. And at the 5, we have a big, big dude (Carter) and the longest player in Duke history (Bolden). The tools are there. But can they come together? Can Bagley make up for porous backcourt D that we are guaranteed to see sometime in the season? Can Duval or Trent (or both!) be defensive stoppers? So many questions.

[Troublemaker]

The real reason for that is unfortunately Draft Express is no longer as ESPN has swallowed them and their content. I'm happy for Givony because his passion got him paid but now his work also resides behind a paywall.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/the-end-of-an-era-6070/

I don't think so. Check out Wendell's profile on DX (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/). Lots of data.

[ipatent]

There will no no shortage of talent on the floor next year, let's hope they gel, stay injury-free and learn to play a little defense.

[Kedsy]

I somehow would be AND wouldn't be surprised if we see Bagley spend some time at the 3...
...
Have to think this likely closes the door for Javin and/or Vrank having any meaningful minutes this season.

If Marvin plays significant minutes at SF, it would presumably be to get Marques and Javin into the lineup. The question I've been asking is whether Javin himself can play SF. In his junior and senior years of high school (combined), according to MaxPreps, Javin shot 45% from three-land on 1.6 three-attempts per game, and also had 4.6 assists per game in those seasons. If any of that is real, he would also appear to have the quickness to possibly defend SFs, and the length to make up for it if a quicker player scoots by him. Granted, what little we saw of him as a college freshman didn't show us any of that, but if Javin can earn some minutes at SF, then he could be the 7th man, in a competition with Jordan T, Alex, and Jack (with Jordan T being the most serious competition due to his shooting).

As for question marks with this team (assuming Marvin is eligible, which might be the biggest question mark), I'd need to see Trevon and Gary shoot against college competition and see Jordan T earn decent minutes before I said shooting wasn't a concern. Though, as dukelifer pointed out, an underrated concern might be free throw shooting. I agree with the consensus that defense and lack of experience are the biggest question marks at this point, but I remain hopeful about defense due to the outstanding wingspans of many of our players:

WINGSPAN
Marques: 7'5"
Wendell: 7'3"
Marvin: 7'0.5"
Javin: 7'0"
Trevon: 6'9.5" (which wins the prize on the team for wingspan minus height, at 7 inches which is an inch better than Marques)
Gary: 6'8.5"
Jordan T: 6'8.5"
Grayson: 6'6.5"

That sort of length hopefully should be able to erase some rookie defensive mistakes.

[Indoor66]

I may be alone in this, but the non performance based hype on these recruits is becoming rather habitual and tiresome. I desire success for all our recruits but feel it is sensible to allow them to perform in a blue uniform before declaring any of them the next anybody. Maybe it might to be appropriate to dial back the expectations for these recruits. Maybe a little perspective

[TKG]

learn to play a little defense.

With so few veterans to serve in teaching/sharing roles, how do we educate the young fellas to communicate on D and teach them how critical communication is to success on D?

[cato]

Good thing he doesn't wear #32. Laettner would have flipped him the bird.

Certainly, he might have stomped all over that idea.

[CDu]

I may be alone in this, but the non performance based hype on these recruits is becoming rather habitual and tiresome. I desire success for all our recruits but feel it is sensible to allow them to perform in a blue uniform before declaring any of them the next anybody. Maybe it might to be appropriate to dial back the expectations for these recruits. Maybe a little perspective

I'm certainly okay with reining in hyperbole. But when - barring injury - have our top-10 recruits not performed to expectation? Tatum (and even he overcame injury), Ingram, Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Parker, Rivers, and Irving were all as advertised. Giles is the outlier. And his outlier-ness lies entirely in the fact that he was recovering from multiple knee surgeries and not nearly back to full speed. We could go back even further, but the evidence is pretty consistent as far back as recruiting rankings have been prominently published.

Given that history, I will be very surprised if Carter, Bagley (assuming he is deemed eligible), and Duval are not absolute studs this year. Trent is on the border, in that 10-20 range where recruits don't always produce as freshmen. Some do (e.g., Winslow, Sulaimon, to a lesser degree Jackson). Some don't (e.g., Kelly, Bolden, Plumlee). Anything can happen, but the trends have seemed pretty consistent in this regard.

[BD80]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.

... Marvin has never chosen to compete in actual games for USA Basketball, although he attended a development camp once. Because of his reclassification, he'll never get a chance to compete in the Hoop Summit's practices and game and the McDonald's practices and game. In general, his family has been very careful about what competition to expose him to, most notably last summer when he was 17 and playing the 16u Nike circuit (he was 16 on Jan 1) instead of playing up at the 17u level. Now, he did play 17u this summer and dominated, but most kids play 17u two or even three summers in a row. All of this is to say that there's less data on Marvin Bagley than is typical with top-5 kids and especially #1-ranked kids.

Let's see how Marvin adjusts to the college level. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think he's going to be very good and an upgrade for this Duke team. But the talk of "best prospect since Lebron" is dubious to me at this point in time.

Peeing in the punch again. Come on, its August, let us enjoy our victory dance - which is best when nobody watches - or comments


I may be alone in this, but the non performance based hype on these recruits is becoming rather habitual and tiresome. I desire success for all our recruits but feel it is sensible to allow them to perform in a blue uniform before declaring any of them the next anybody. Maybe it might to be appropriate to dial back the expectations for these recruits. Maybe a little perspective

Punch bowl is starting to overflow ...

[moonpie23]

Welcome to the family, Marvin .......... BRING IT!!!!



oh the hater tears on IC and Cats Pause are like fine wine.....

[75Crazie]

So, we are welcoming a new player who transferred twice in high school, had to sit out a year for doing so, then re-classified to (hopefully) graduate early so that he could get to college one year sooner with the plan of leaving after one year so that he can get to the pros one year sooner? If I have all of that correct, then I for one am not celebrating. This might be the brave new world in which "college" revenue sports operate today ... but I refuse to revel in it.

Back to my lawn ...

[Dukehky]

I'm certainly okay with reining in hyperbole. But when - barring injury - have our top-10 recruits not performed to expectation? Tatum (and even he overcame injury), Ingram, Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Parker, Rivers, and Irving were all as advertised. Giles is the outlier. And his outlier-ness lies entirely in the fact that he was recovering from multiple knee surgeries and not nearly back to full speed. We could go back even further, but the evidence is pretty consistent as far back as recruiting rankings have been prominently published.

Given that history, I will be very surprised if Carter, Bagley (assuming he is deemed eligible), and Duval are not absolute studs this year. Trent is on the border, in that 10-20 range where recruits don't always produce as freshmen. Some do (e.g., Winslow, Sulaimon, to a lesser degree Jackson). Some don't (e.g., Kelly, Bolden, Plumlee). Anything can happen, but the trends have seemed pretty consistent in this regard.


This is in reply to you and your response to Indoor
Everyone that we've had that was supposed to be really good since 2011 has been, in fact, really good. You're letting some tournament disappointments shroud your perception of how good most of those players were. Wildly overrated 2012 team against a wildly underrated Lehigh team with the best player on the floor (oh and we were missing a starter-Kelly). 2014, that's our what the hell happened. Doesn't change the fact that Jabari was an incredible player for us. 2015, Duh. 2016, we lost to a really good Oregon team in the Sweet Sixteen playing 6 guys, one of whom was our second best player and went 2 in the draft.

Last year was just totally derailed by injuries. Bolden, although highly touted, wasn't in the top 10 in the class until the last few weeks of the season (and he got hurt). Giles, hurt. Frank played pretty well both before and well after his injury and was a huge part of that ACC tournament run. Tatum was our best player last year.

Our freshmen are going to be good. The question is, how good can they be on defense and as a unit. That's where the successes and failures that you seem to be putting on the freshmen control.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The only caveat here is of course that last year was an injury-riddled season. Giles WAS a super prospect... prior to the second ACL tear. And he may become that again once he's fully healthy and physically confident. But he was a shell of his former self as he recovered (both mentally and physically) from his second major knee surgery and a third minor procedure that kept him out until December.

Thanks for the history lesson - I am well aware of what all transpired last year. I am just reminding people to temper expectations and not get their 40-0 tattoos just yet.

[UrinalCake]

...but I remain hopeful about defense due to the outstanding wingspans of many of our players:

That kind of length screams zone defense to me. Combined with the struggles that our freshmen have had learning our complex M2M switching schemes, wouldn't it make sense to go 3-2 zone and clog the middle? I know K doesn't like to concede the three, but we could completely shut down the interior and also rebound everything by packing it in.

[Spanarkel]

If Marvin plays significant minutes at SF, it would presumably be to get Marques and Javin into the lineup. The question I've been asking is whether Javin himself can play SF. In his junior and senior years of high school (combined), according to MaxPreps, Javin shot 45% from three-land on 1.6 three-attempts per game, and also had 4.6 assists per game in those seasons. If any of that is real, he would also appear to have the quickness to possibly defend SFs, and the length to make up for it if a quicker player scoots by him. Granted, what little we saw of him as a college freshman didn't show us any of that, but if Javin can earn some minutes at SF, then he could be the 7th man, in a competition with Jordan T, Alex, and Jack (with Jordan T being the most serious competition due to his shooting).

As for question marks with this team (assuming Marvin is eligible, which might be the biggest question mark), I'd need to see Trevon and Gary shoot against college competition and see Jordan T earn decent minutes before I said shooting wasn't a concern. Though, as dukelifer pointed out, an underrated concern might be free throw shooting. I agree with the consensus that defense and lack of experience are the biggest question marks at this point, but I remain hopeful about defense due to the outstanding wingspans of many of our players:

WINGSPAN
Marques: 7'5"
Wendell: 7'3"
Marvin: 7'0.5"
Javin: 7'0"
Trevon: 6'9.5" (which wins the prize on the team for wingspan minus height, at 7 inches which is an inch better than Marques)
Gary: 6'8.5"
Jordan T: 6'8.5"
Grayson: 6'6.5"

That sort of length hopefully should be able to erase some rookie defensive mistakes.

Agree that Marques/Wendell/Marvin and especially Trevon have above average/near elite wingspans, but Javin's(he is 6'10"), Gary's, Jordan T's and Grayson's are really about average(1.5-2.5" > height). In recent NBA drafts the average wingspan has been from 4-4.5" > height.

[Billy Dat]

I thought about trying to parse my feelings about Duke being neck deep in OAD and pursuing a kid who attended multiple high schools and is supposed to be in the Class of 2018 and a lot of other stuff but there's this weird chant echoing in my brain preventing me from articulating my thoughts..can you hear it?

Mar-vin Bag-ley...clap clap clap clap clap...Mar-vin Bag-ley...clap clap clap clap clap

There was this kid I grew up with; he was younger than me. Sorta looked up to me, you know. We did our first work together, worked our way out of the street. Things were good, we made the most of it. During Prohibition, we ran molasses into Canada... made a fortune, your father, too. As much as anyone, I loved him and trusted him. Later on he had an idea to build a city out of a desert stop-over for GI's on the way to the West Coast. That kid's name was Moe Greene, and the city he invented was Las Vegas. This was a great man, a man of vision and guts. And there isn't even a plaque, or a signpost or a statue of him in that town! Someone put a bullet through his eye. No one knows who gave the order. When I heard it, I wasn't angry; I knew Moe, I knew he was head-strong, talking loud, saying stupid things. So when he turned up dead, I let it go. And I said to myself, this is the business we've chosen; I didn't ask who gave the order, because it had nothing to do with business

[sammy3469]

That kind of length screams zone defense to me. Combined with the struggles that our freshmen have had learning our complex M2M switching schemes, wouldn't it make sense to go 3-2 zone and clog the middle? I know K doesn't like to concede the three, but we could completely shut down the interior and also rebound everything by packing it in.

I was going to say the same thing especially if it becomes apparent that the best 5 is something like Bolden/Carter/Bagley/Allen/Duval. K's generaly philosophy is to put the best 5 guys on the court and then figure it out, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's how it shakes out. If that's the case, the challenge becomes using that length as much as possible to clog the passing lanes (as opposed to using the quickness of shorter players).

[atoomer0881]

So, we are welcoming a new player who transferred twice in high school, had to sit out a year for doing so, then re-classified to (hopefully) graduate early so that he could get to college one year sooner with the plan of leaving after one year so that he can get to the pros one year sooner? If I have all of that correct, then I for one am not celebrating. This might be the brave new world in which "college" revenue sports operate today ... but I refuse to revel in it.

Back to my lawn ...

I'll remember this if Bagley helps lead us to Banner #6. I assume you won't be celebrating then either.

[jimsumner]

Well, doesn't that tell you that experience doesn't matter all that much? I mean, it matters in the sense that if this team stayed together 4 years (or even 2-3 years), it'd become an all-time-great team, something college basketball fans don't get to enjoy seeing anymore. But I think Kentucky and Duke have shown that you can build a strong contender with little experience. With Duke, we're following the 2015 model of having 1 senior combo-guard looking for redemption leading the way surrounded by lots and lots of great, young talent. I'm comfortable with that.

That 2015 team also had juniors Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee. The former was very important to that team and I don't see a 2018 analog.

[75Crazie]

I'll remember this if Bagley helps lead us to Banner #6. I assume you won't be celebrating then either.
Correct. I just do not understand what glory that brings Duke University.

[flyingdutchdevil]

That 2015 team also had juniors Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee. The former was very important to that team and I don't see a 2018 analog.

Bingo. Allen is the captain/leader, but it's asking him a lot to supervise 5+ freshman and 2+ sophomores/juniors with very little playing time during their tenure at Duke.

Call me excited but cautious about our team next year.

[atoomer0881]

That 2015 team also had juniors Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee. The former was very important to that team and I don't see a 2018 analog.

Maybe Vrank the Tank...? I don't know, I'm grasping at straws here haha

[atoomer0881]

Correct. I just do not understand what glory that brings Duke University.

Ummmm it brings us a 6th National Championship. Not sure what else you want...?

[Kedsy]

Agree that Marques/Wendell/Marvin and especially Trevon have above average/near elite wingspans, but Javin's(he is 6'10"), Gary's, Jordan T's and Grayson's are really about average(1.5-2.5" > height). In recent NBA drafts the average wingspan has been from 4-4.5" > height.

Well, DraftExpress lists Marvin as 6'10.5" with a 7'0.5" wingspan and it lists Javin as 6'9" with a 7'0" wingspan, so (a) if Javin is 6'10" now, maybe his wingspan has increased as well; and (b) if Javin is in the non-elite wingspan camp, then so is Marvin. Either way, both these guys have 8'9" or 8'10" standing reach, which is a fairly long way to shoot over if you're a guard approaching the basket. And if either Javin or Marvin is capable of playing SF, that's an amazing amount of length at the SF position, whether their wingspans are elite or not.

Finally, whether these guys are elite for NBA purposes is not necessarily the deciding factor in whether their length will aid them in playing defense in college. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Native]

Bingo. Allen is the captain/leader, but it's asking him a lot to supervise 5+ freshman and 2+ sophomores/juniors with very little playing time during their tenure at Duke.

Call me excited but cautious about our team next year.

Put me in the same camp. 2015 UK — and our season last year — should serve as Exhibits A and B of why the games are still played.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that this (https://www.instagram.com/p/BXx8NEnDxqS/) happened this week. K knows what he's doing, and Grayson will need to make a leap even bigger than Quinn did in terms of maturity and leadership ability if we want the same result of a new banner in the rafters.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Put me in the same camp. 2015 UK — and our season last year — should serve as Exhibits A and B of why the games are still played.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that this (https://www.instagram.com/p/BXx8NEnDxqS/) happened this week. K knows what he's doing, and Grayson will need to make a leap even bigger than Quinn did in terms of maturity and leadership ability if we want the same result of a new banner in the rafters.

I'd take 2015 UK in a heartbeat.

[CDu]

Thanks for the history lesson - I am well aware of what all transpired last year. I am just reminding people to temper expectations and not get their 40-0 tattoos just yet.

Just saying. Last year has no relevance as a point of reference for this year.

[SkyBrickey]

I understand the concerns about inexperience and the disappointment from last season.

That said this team will clearly be the longest and most athletic in Duke history. Duval, Carter, Bagley and Trent all have college ready bodies and games. All but Duval are known to be very good defenders. And Duval has the potential to be a great defender with his athleticism and length as long as the effort is there.

The most dominant Duke team I've seen over the past 30 years is 1999. They were consistently great because they dominated inside, scoring lots of easy baskets and making life tough for opposing offenses. This squad has that same potential with even more length and athleticism.

Two keys for me:

1) Will Duval play lockdown perimeter defense.

2) Can Trent win his matchups at the 3 and keep defenses honest hitting 40% from 3s? Or Tucker? We need another consistent 3 point threat.

If so, we will be very very tough to beat.

Bagley, Carter, Bolden and Javin should dominate inside from game 1. All you need to know is Carter is now the ACCs second best post player. Sorry Bonzie.

[bluedev_92]

So, we are welcoming a new player who transferred twice in high school, had to sit out a year for doing so, then re-classified to (hopefully) graduate early so that he could get to college one year sooner with the plan of leaving after one year so that he can get to the pros one year sooner? If I have all of that correct, then I for one am not celebrating. This might be the brave new world in which "college" revenue sports operate today ... but I refuse to revel in it.

Back to my lawn ...

Not trying to get a dig in here, just interested. I know Bagley may be an extreme example, but if you feel that way is it then hard for you to root for the team, given that you are not excited about at least one of the primary players? Are other one & done players in the same boat from your perspective? If so, each year there will be multiple impact players that don't fit the way things used to be, yet will get most of the playing time. Do you put it all aside from a team perspective & still root for the entire squad?

[75Crazie]

Ummmm it brings us a 6th National Championship. Not sure what else you want...?
I want "college" sports to return to some semblance of sports involving college athletes, that is what I want. I want Duke to set an example and remove itself from recruiting players who obviously have only one intention, and that is to leave college just as soon as they are allowed to in order to pursue a professional athletic career. I want the process to change to use a viable minor league for professional football and basketball that provides young athletes an alternative path which does not have to pay ridiculous lip service to college education. I want Duke to quit prostituting itself as most other major colleges do in pursuit of athletic excellence.

I also want world peace. I see all of these desires as equally likely. And so I force myself to discontinue caring about Duke basketball. I just cringe, though, when I see the fawning of this board over the recruitment of Marvin. I have nothing at all against Marvin, I cannot blame him for taking advantage ... I just hate seeing the reactions I am seeing here. But the equine is deceased, so I'll do everyone a favor and go away again.

[jv001]

I want "college" sports to return to some semblance of sports involving college athletes, that is what I want. I want Duke to set an example and remove itself from recruiting players who obviously have only one intention, and that is to leave college just as soon as they are allowed to in order to pursue a professional athletic career. I want the process to change to use a viable minor league for professional football and basketball that provides young athletes an alternative path which does not have to pay ridiculous lip service to college education. I want Duke to quit prostituting itself as most other major colleges do in pursuit of athletic excellence.

I also want world peace. I see all of these desires as equally likely. And so I force myself to discontinue caring about Duke basketball. I just cringe, though, when I see the fawning of this board over the recruitment of Marvin. I have nothing at all against Marvin, I cannot blame him for taking advantage ... I just hate seeing the reactions I am seeing here. But the equine is deceased, so I'll do everyone a favor and go away again.

I'm not being a smart aleck when I post this, but you could be really active on the subject of Duke Football. Coach Cut has done an amazing job of getting Duke Football back to respectability and he's done it without any OADs. GoDuke!

As for world peace, There'll come a day. God bless and GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

I want "college" sports to return to some semblance of sports involving college athletes, that is what I want. I want Duke to set an example and remove itself from recruiting players who obviously have only one intention, and that is to leave college just as soon as they are allowed to in order to pursue a professional athletic career. I want the process to change to use a viable minor league for professional football and basketball that provides young athletes an alternative path which does not have to pay ridiculous lip service to college education. I want Duke to quit prostituting itself as most other major colleges do in pursuit of athletic excellence.

I also want world peace. I see all of these desires as equally likely. And so I force myself to discontinue caring about Duke basketball. I just cringe, though, when I see the fawning of this board over the recruitment of Marvin. I have nothing at all against Marvin, I cannot blame him for taking advantage ... I just hate seeing the reactions I am seeing here. But the equine is deceased, so I'll do everyone a favor and go away again.

What do you see as the difference between an OAD and a four-year player? What is the difference between Brandon Ingram and JJ Redick? Both have the exact same dream. It's safe to say that neither would have gotten into Duke without an athletic scholarship (and JJ is a bright guy. But Duke's academic threshold for admissions is insanely high). To me, the only difference is that Brandon Ingram had higher basketball potential and hence maximized his career potential faster than JJ.

To me, I don't see a difference whatsoever. Kids who go to Duke, UK, KU, UNC (okay, maybe not so much anymore), etc have aspirations to play professional ball. It's been like that for decades. What's changed? Just these kids leaving earlier. I'm cool with that.

[75Crazie]

I'm not being a smart aleck when I post this, but you could be really active on the subject of Duke Football. Coach Cut has done an amazing job of getting Duke Football back to respectability and he's done it without any OADs. GoDuke!

As for world peace, There'll come a day. God bless and GoDuke!
I debated whether to say anything about Duke football or not. I have much more respect for our football program right now than I do with our basketball program. I suspect that is because Duke just does not have the provenance in football that it does in basketball and that TADs (or whatever you call them in football) are not drawn to Duke. But I fully agree with you regarding Cutcliffe, I admire the heck out of him. It would be interesting to contemplate how he would run a major program like Alabama, I suspect he would fit in pretty well there ... but his ability to similarly fit in with a program like Duke's is admirable.

[Troublemaker]

That 2015 team also had juniors Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee. The former was very important to that team and I don't see a 2018 analog.


Bingo. Allen is the captain/leader, but it's asking him a lot to supervise 5+ freshman and 2+ sophomores/juniors with very little playing time during their tenure at Duke.

Call me excited but cautious about our team next year.

I don't envision that little extra bit of inexperience breaking the camel's back here. Both 2015 and 2018 were/are extremely young. More similar than dissimilar, imo. The leadership of Grayson, the coaching staff, and Surprise Leader X (TBD) should be enough. [Don't be surprised if X = Gary Trent, btw.]


That kind of length screams zone defense to me. Combined with the struggles that our freshmen have had learning our complex M2M switching schemes, wouldn't it make sense to go 3-2 zone and clog the middle? I know K doesn't like to concede the three, but we could completely shut down the interior and also rebound everything by packing it in.

A few things:
(1) I wouldn't count on it. Coaches who prefer m2m (which is like 95% of coaches) see all that length and think, "I'm going to build a great m2m defense." They don't think about zone.
(2) Zone defenses struggle rebounding. It'd be tough to find a counter-example. Even a program like Baylor that is routinely huge and plays zone puts up mediocre to atrocious defensive rebounding rates year after year.
(3) Generally, switching m2m is considered simpler and less complex than regular m2m because it requires less off-ball help. For example, the simplest way to defend a ball screen is just to switch it; you don't have to involve a third man away from the play to crash down into the paint and chuck the roller. If I were going to criticize our switching, it would be from the standpoint that we sometimes lack versatile defenders who can hold up in a switch. Even Amile would often clap his hands in anticipation of defending the guard he just switched onto and then get blown by. But complexity? No.
(4) I'm optimistic about this team's defense. We have Kentucky-like athleticism and defensive weaponry and I expect Coach K to produce Kentucky-like defensive results.

[richmclean]

I want "college" sports to return to some semblance of sports involving college athletes, that is what I want. I want Duke to set an example and remove itself from recruiting players who obviously have only one intention, and that is to leave college just as soon as they are allowed to in order to pursue a professional athletic career. I want the process to change to use a viable minor league for professional football and basketball that provides young athletes an alternative path which does not have to pay ridiculous lip service to college education. I want Duke to quit prostituting itself as most other major colleges do in pursuit of athletic excellence.

I also want world peace. I see all of these desires as equally likely. And so I force myself to discontinue caring about Duke basketball. I just cringe, though, when I see the fawning of this board over the recruitment of Marvin. I have nothing at all against Marvin, I cannot blame him for taking advantage ... I just hate seeing the reactions I am seeing here. But the equine is deceased, so I'll do everyone a favor and go away again.

Every year schools like Harvard prostitute themselves by admitting people like Bill Gates who take advantage of them and don't stay four years, leaving early to make millions, or in Gates' case, billions.

[cato]

I want Duke to quit prostituting itself as most other major colleges do in pursuit of athletic excellence.
. . .

I just cringe, though, when I see the fawning of this board over the recruitment of Marvin. I have nothing at all against Marvin, I cannot blame him for taking advantage ... I just hate seeing the reactions I am seeing here. But the equine is deceased, so I'll do everyone a favor and go away again.

There are indeed some cringe worthy moments on this board -- some closer than they may appear.

[jimsumner]

Every year schools like Harvard prostitute themselves by admitting people like Bill Gates who take advantage of them and don't stay four years, leaving early to make millions, or in Gates' case, billions.

But only after he married a Duke alum.:)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Just saying. Last year has no relevance as a point of reference for this year.

How on earth can last year's team have "no relevance" in regards to over optimistic fans?

You sure see everything in terms of absolutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

How on earth can last year's team have "no relevance" in regards to over optimistic fans?

You sure see everything in terms of absolutes.

It's had a massive effect on my expectations. I'm cautiously optimistic, but still so many questions.

I led the bandwagon for 2016-17; I'm walking behind the bangwagon for 2017-18.

[subzero02]

Correct. I just do not understand what glory that brings Duke University.
I personally have no problem with the route he has taken to arrive at Duke University. Any basketball program on the planet, both pro and collegiate, would be doing backflips over receiving a commitment from Bagley. That's a high profile endorsement of Duke, K, and our basketball program overall.
We've passed on plenty of elite talent with character/academic issues. Our coaching staff has been in contact with this very impressive young man since he was in the ninth grade and even offered him a scholarship then. I trust their judgment and the judgment of our admissions office.
I understand that maximizing his NBA earnings potential is certainly a huge motivating factor in his efforts to reclassify. In an industry where top talent will soon earn $50 million/year, time spent out of the league comes at a staggering opportunity cost. I think he has made a great choice; instead of playing another year of high school basketball, he gets to attend one of the top academic institutions on the planet, contend for a national title, boost his national profile, face elite competition and receive instruction from the greatest coach in college basketball history.

[CDu]

How on earth can last year's team have "no relevance" in regards to over optimistic fans?

You sure see everything in terms of absolutes.

Because last year's team is nothing like this year's team. Last year's team was based on the assumption that Giles would be a stud. The reason Giles was not a stud is because he was still recovering from multiple knee surgeries. That does not apply to this year's team. And beyond that, we had such phenomenal bad luck with regards to injuries to other key players that it makes it such an outlier.

I don't see everything in terms of absolutes. But if you can't see the difference between 2016-17 and pretty much every other season, I can't help you. It was the most extreme of outliers.

That's not to say we are going to be some sort of juggernaut. Heck, I've even stated my reasons for concern with this team. I'm just saying that 2016-17 is irrelevant with regards to this year's team.

[BD80]

... Any basketball program on the planet, both pro and collegiate, would be doing backflips over receiving a commitment from Bagley. ...

Just think about this statement - which I believe to be true.

EVERY pro team would consider Marvin to be an instant difference maker.

We may just have gotten a bit better last night. In particular, our low post offense will be dominant, if Carter or Bolden draw even a bit of a double team, Bagley will own the boards for an offensive put-back.

[kAzE]

Just think about this statement - which I believe to be true.

EVERY pro team would consider Marvin to be an instant difference maker.

We may just have gotten a bit better last night. In particular, our low post offense will be dominant, if Carter or Bolden draw even a bit of a double team, Bagley will own the boards for an offensive put-back.

Both Bagley and Carter are considered dominant rebounders. Bagley in particular plays well above the rim, and has some of the quickest 2nd and 3rd jumps I've ever seen from a high schooler. I think he's almost a lock to lead the team in rebounding. If Carter weren't on the team to compete for rebounds, I think Bagley would be a lock to average a double double. Bolden wasn't great on the boards last year, but given his enormous size and wingspan, you have to imagine him improving on that front this year. It's going to be fun to watch those 3 play volleyball with each other against smaller teams.

[duke4ever19]

Because last year's team is nothing like this year's team. Last year's team was based on the assumption that Giles would be a stud. The reason Giles was not a stud is because he was still recovering from multiple knee surgeries. That does not apply to this year's team. And beyond that, we had such phenomenal bad luck with regards to injuries to other key players that it makes it such an outlier.

I don't see everything in terms of absolutes. But if you can't see the difference between 2016-17 and pretty much every other season, I can't help you. It was the most extreme of outliers.

That's not to say we are going to be some sort of juggernaut. Heck, I've even stated my reasons for concern with this team. I'm just saying that 2016-17 is irrelevant with regards to this year's team.

I suspect you are talking past each other. The other poster (Mtn. Devil) isn't getting into the details of our previous heralded recruiting class, or of the circumstances of other highly-regarded classes, but merely acknowledging that a highly-touted recruiting class does not automatically equal a trip to the Final Four and that we can look no further than last year to derive a basic "moral of the story." This is a very general observation he/she is making.

You are doing a bit more analysis, by going a step further than this statement by saying, "But look at the circumstances here and differences between the rosters in size and health etc., which aren't the same as this years group." That is absolutely true, but it's also a level deeper than the other poster.

Mtn Devil seems to just be gesturing at a "general warning" that highly regarded recruiting class does not automatically equal a trip to the Final Four.

All these types of analogies and comparisons break down at a certain level of analysis. You are merely demonstrating where that level is in by-passing/going deeper than the more general point made by the other poster.

You are both correct, but just in a different way.

[Indoor66]

CDU, you also presume no health problems for this team - hopefully correct but not assured.

[flyingdutchdevil]

CDU, you also presume no health problems for this team - hopefully correct but not assured.

In fairness to CDu, I don't think we really forecast health problems outside of the ones that we really know about (Giles is the only real example for that).

[Indoor66]

In fairness to CDu, I don't think we really forecast health problems outside of the ones that we really know about (Giles is the only real example for that).

I was addressing the debate about unfettered optimism vs caution about results for the year.

[slower]

We do need to slow our roll on the talk of MB3 being the best prospect since Lebron / Anthony Davis.


Go watch some Zion Williamson highlights. Bagley is no better than #2. Which is still fantastic, of course. But Zion is...something else.

[kAzE]

Go watch some Zion Williamson highlights. Bagley is no better than #2. Which is still fantastic, of course. But Zion is...something else.

He's a flashier dunker and better run/jump athlete than Marvin, but in terms of basketball skills, Marvin is superior at just about everything else. There's a reason he was #1 over Zion in the class of 2018.

[slower]

He's a flashier dunker and better run/jump athlete than Marvin, but in terms of basketball skills, Marvin is superior at just about everything else. There's a reason he was #1 over Zion in the class of 2018.

Time will tell.

And I just compared their stats on Max Preps (which doesn't necessarily mean that much, but still...). Zion's averages are higher than Bagley's in EVERY measurable category. But you have your opinion and I have mine. I actually hope you're right (that Bagley is better), because Zion is terrifying.

[Edouble]

I understand the concerns about inexperience and the disappointment from last season.

That said this team will clearly be the longest and most athletic in Duke history. Duval, Carter, Bagley and Trent all have college ready bodies and games. All but Duval are known to be very good defenders. And Duval has the potential to be a great defender with his athleticism and length as long as the effort is there.

The most dominant Duke team I've seen over the past 30 years is 1999. They were consistently great because they dominated inside, scoring lots of easy baskets and making life tough for opposing offenses. This squad has that same potential with even more length and athleticism.

Two keys for me:

1) Will Duval play lockdown perimeter defense.

2) Can Trent win his matchups at the 3 and keep defenses honest hitting 40% from 3s? Or Tucker? We need another consistent 3 point threat.

If so, we will be very very tough to beat.

Bagley, Carter, Bolden and Javin should dominate inside from game 1. All you need to know is Carter is now the ACCs second best post player. Sorry Bonzie.

I would also reference the UNC teams of the last two years, particularly last year. I'm sure that blueprint is not lost on Coach K. Our team is not perfectly analogous, but we've got a lot of big bodies and we will be able to run.

[Edouble]

Just think about this statement - which I believe to be true.

EVERY pro team would consider Marvin to be an instant difference maker.

We may just have gotten a bit better last night. In particular, our low post offense will be dominant, if Carter or Bolden draw even a bit of a double team, Bagley will own the boards for an offensive put-back.

I'm sure there are other examples, but there is no way that the Warriors, as currently constructed, would consider MBIII an instant difference maker.

[budwom]

throw the ball at the basket, if it goes in, good.
if it doesn't, send Carter and Bagley and/or Bolden to get it and try again, and if need be, again.

[devildeac]

throw the ball at the basket, if it goes in, good.
if it doesn't, send Carter and Bagley and/or Bolden to get it and try again, and if need be, again.

Sounds like the ol' roy approach...

(As I know budwom, there is some irony/truth/sarcasm in that statement. ;))

[slower]

Time will tell.

And I just compared their stats on Max Preps (which doesn't necessarily mean that much, but still...). Zion's averages are higher than Bagley's in EVERY measurable category. But you have your opinion and I have mine. I actually hope you're right (that Bagley is better), because Zion is terrifying.

Kaze,

From what I've read online, Bagley's level of competition is higher than Zion's. So, I'll say that you're correct.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Because last year's team is nothing like this year's team. Last year's team was based on the assumption that Giles would be a stud. The reason Giles was not a stud is because he was still recovering from multiple knee surgeries. That does not apply to this year's team. And beyond that, we had such phenomenal bad luck with regards to injuries to other key players that it makes it such an outlier.

I don't see everything in terms of absolutes. But if you can't see the difference between 2016-17 and pretty much every other season, I can't help you. It was the most extreme of outliers.

That's not to say we are going to be some sort of juggernaut. Heck, I've even stated my reasons for concern with this team. I'm just saying that 2016-17 is irrelevant with regards to this year's team.

Perhaps we have different understandings of the word "relevant." I see last season as a cautionary tale about over-exuberance, and the consequences of things beyond control of the team. This is a wider lesson than "well, today's team isn't recovering from off-season injury, so there are no parallels."

Go ahead and be optimistic, I am totally down for that. Let's just all have open eyes about the many, many things that could not go according to plan.

[NSDukeFan]

We are certainly winning the offseason but if last season taught us anything it would be "wait and see".
I haven't looked forward to a season this much and with as much optimism since 2016.

Shooting always seems to work out for us. I'm comfortable that we're going to end up coaxing some good shooting seasons out of reputedly bad or shaky shooters. Maybe I'm wrong and it turns out to be a problem, but the mythical poor-shooting-Duke-team has earned "need to see it to believe it" status for me.

Overall, I don't have any big question marks about this team heading into fall semester. That's different from last season's team that, heading into fall semester, had two major question marks: (1) How quickly could projected starting center Giles recover from his ACL surgery mentally and physically to get back to his old self?, (2) Can the team really contend at the highest level without a true point guard? With some hindsight, the 2016-17 team was overrated heading into fall semester. You can't be unsettled at the two crucial positions of point guard and center and still be predicting that it's going to be a '99-type season. With this upcoming season's team, I don't really see any major questions marks yet... 'yet' being the key word since they could still appear.

There are some minor concerns, i.e. things that I'm pretty sure will work out well, but they are questions until shown not to be:
(1) Bagley getting cleared by the NCAA to re-classify, although I'd be surprised if Duke and the Bagleys blundered here. I think he'll be eligible.
(2) Perimeter depth.
(3) With so many star players, can everyone share and stay happy with their role?
(4) Defense. But with much better defensive talent on hand, I think we'll have a very good defensive team this season.
I still have the same concern I had before last season started but maybe even more so. This Duke team has fantastic size, but basketball is trending towards small ball. How will this team defend against the quick guards and forwards this team will see. I imagine a bunch of teams will want to out quick Duke at the 3,4 5 to try to force Duke to not be able to play its best players (Bagley, Carter and Bolden) as many minutes as we would like. Will Duke's bigs be able to defend the quick third guards and/or 6'6 slashing and/or shooting power forwards to allow them to stay on the floor? I hope so and/or hope Javin can as well. Fortunately, coach K's teams traditionally do well running teams off th e 3-point line and should have more shot contesters inside this year, but we'll see.

I don't envision that little extra bit of inexperience breaking the camel's back here. Both 2015 and 2018 were/are extremely young. More similar than dissimilar, imo. The leadership of Grayson, the coaching staff, and Surprise Leader X (TBD) should be enough. [Don't be surprised if X = Gary Trent, btw.]



A few things:
(1) I wouldn't count on it. Coaches who prefer m2m (which is like 95% of coaches) see all that length and think, "I'm going to build a great m2m defense." They don't think about zone.
(2) Zone defenses struggle rebounding. It'd be tough to find a counter-example. Even a program like Baylor that is routinely huge and plays zone puts up mediocre to atrocious defensive rebounding rates year after year.
(3) Generally, switching m2m is considered simpler and less complex than regular m2m because it requires less off-ball help. For example, the simplest way to defend a ball screen is just to switch it; you don't have to involve a third man away from the play to crash down into the paint and chuck the roller. If I were going to criticize our switching, it would be from the standpoint that we sometimes lack versatile defenders who can hold up in a switch. Even Amile would often clap his hands in anticipation of defending the guard he just switched onto and then get blown by. But complexity? No.
(4) I'm optimistic about this team's defense. We have Kentucky-like athleticism and defensive weaponry and I expect Coach K to produce Kentucky-like defensive results.
I agree coach K is likely more excited about man-to-man defensive possibilities than zone. I doubt very much he is up at night excitedly imagining what kind of zone the team could play. I am very interested in your point 4 as I agree that UK has had the athletes for better defences with its OADs. That changes this year. How will Duke's coaching staff get the team to defend with great length and great athletes?

It's had a massive effect on my expectations. I'm cautiously optimistic, but still so many questions.

I led the bandwagon for 2016-17; I'm walking behind the bangwagon for 2017-18.

I was fully on the bandwagon last year and still believe that was one of the most talented teams Duke has ever had. It just wasn't healthy. I am hoping Giles can get to the point where he can be the player I and many others expect he can. Because he went to Duke, I will be watching and hoping.
I am fully on the bandwagon for this year as well. I think this team is in the same category of preseason talent as 2016 and 2011. Bring on the season. I don't know how the final game will play out or when it will be, but I expect this should be a fun ride.

[CDu]

You are talking past each other. The other poster isn't getting into the details of our previous heralded recruiting class, or of the circumstances of other highly-regarded classes, but merely saying that a highly-touted recruiting class does not automatically equal a trip to the Final Four and that we can look no further than last year to derive a basic "moral of the story."

You are going a step further than this statement by saying, "But look at the details here and differences between the rosters, which aren't the same as this years group." True, but that's a level deeper than the other poster. The other poster is just giving a general warning that highly regarded recruiting class does not automatically equal a trip to the Final Four.

All these types of analogies and comparisons break down at a certain level of analysis. You are merely demonstrating where that level is in by-passing the more general point made by the other poster.

The more general point then seems to boil down to "nothing is guaranteed." Which is a pretty obvious statement that I think everyone gets. Even the overly optimistic. But "stuff can happen" doesn't seem like a good argument for why folks shouldn't be extremely optimistic about this team. And aside from "stuff can happen", nothing about 2016 is reason to be reserved about this year's team.

Last year's team would have been far less exciting had folks known that Giles would still be broken. And even with him broken, we still only lost like 1 or 2 games total when last year's team was intact/available/healthy.

Our track record with non-injured top-5 recruits has been spectacular. We have 3 of those this year if Bagley is eligible. We have a now-healthy, senior All-American. We have two other top-20 recruits. We have another top-40 recruit. If Bagley is eligible and we don't get hosed with injuries, the team should be really, really good. Will they win it all? Make the Final Four? Win either version of ACC titles? Who knows? But unless you are just pessimistic by nature and prefer not to get excited, there doesn't really seem to be any reason not to be extremely excited about this team's chances.

[CDu]

CDU, you also presume no health problems for this team - hopefully correct but not assured.

I am not presuming anything about the season, other than that if Bagley is eligible and we don't have unexpected injuries we should be really, really good. And as such, I think it makes perfect sense to be extremely excited about this year's team.

[budwom]

Sounds like the ol' roy approach...

(As I know budwom, there is some irony/truth/sarcasm in that statement. ;))

There certainly are parallels. At this point, the team does not seem as chock full of shooters as past Duke teams...but Carter and Bagley (plus Bolden) bring a lot more rebounding prowess than we've typically had.

[Kedsy]

How will this team defend against the quick guards and forwards this team will see.

The old-fashioned Duke way. Clog the passing lanes. Use Trevon's length and Grayson's physicality to force opposing ballhandlers further out than they're usually comfortable and try to cause a turnover. If the quick perimeter player gets past us off the dribble, have at least one (and often two) long, athletic big men near the basket to make it difficult for the offensive player near the rim. We'd be somewhat vulnerable to a corner three (hopefully we'd have the corner in front of the ballhandler covered but the corner behind him might be open), and maybe to a team that goes 4-out, one-in, passes the ball well around the perimeter and shoots lights-out from three, but not much else.

In theory, anyway.

[sagegrouse]

But only after he married a Duke alum.:)

Story is pretty cool actually. Gates called Melinda at work at Microsoft and said he would like to ask her out. She thought it was a terrible idea at first, but her mother persuaded her that it was OK.

[CDu]

There certainly are parallels. At this point, the team does not seem as chock full of shooters as past Duke teams...but Carter and Bagley (plus Bolden) bring a lot more rebounding prowess than we've typically had.

And shotblocking. That combined with Duval's ballhandling and athleticism, a hopefully healthier Allen, and Bagley's size/skill/athleticism combo, and we should hopefully see a big uptick in transition offense.

I think we'll still be a really good offensive team. I just don't think it will look much like our really good offensive teams from the last few years.

[azzefkram]

Count me among the group that is really excited that Marvin decided to come to Duke. If everyone plays up to their rankings the frontcourt rotation should be solid. Assuming Allen, Duval, Trent are starters, I do wonder who from the Tucker, White and O'Connell steps up. From a distance it seems like this is one of the more athletic rosters that I can remember. That could help on the defensive side of the ball.

[drummerdevil]

I don't think you guys realize... you have to guard Bagley out to the three point line, even if he can't shoot. It's incredibly hard to stop a determined (and good) finisher driving to the basket with momentum. His defender has to come out with him, opening up space for drives and other big men.

I do think he will play the 4. However, I would love to see him at the three with carter and bolden. Sophomore bolden, given enough minutes, will be a beast.

One thing I wonder: with the NBA trending towards small ball and three point shooting, will bagley spend the year shooting threes to prepare himself? I want to see serious minutes of the lineup with duval, Allen, bagley, carter, and bolden.

[cato]

I'm sure there are other examples, but there is no way that the Warriors, as currently constructed, would consider MBIII an instant difference maker.

Yeah, well, they don't count. As the Cavs round up the circular firing squad and KD takes a haircut so Steph et al can get paid, we need to apply some sort of asterisk to the Warriors.

[Doria]

Wow, I completely forgot he was announcing, so great news to turn the iPad on to! Welcome to Duke!

[Devilwin]

Very excited about the prospects for this season. Very. Can't wait to see how the line up will shake out. Gonna be talented everywhere! And am excited also about the football team. But why are we playing UNC so early? September 23d I believe.

[Troublemaker]

throw the ball at the basket, if it goes in, good.
if it doesn't, send Carter and Bagley and/or Bolden to get it and try again, and if need be, again.


Sounds like the ol' roy approach...

(As I know budwom, there is some irony/truth/sarcasm in that statement. ;))

It's definitely a good point. Another reason not to be concerned about lack of shooting (which probably won't even come to pass) is because Carter and Bagley are supposed to be fierce offensive rebounders. You're allowed to miss if your big guys can get easy putbacks and fouls on opposing big men via ORebs.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am not presuming anything about the season, other than that if Bagley is eligible and we don't have unexpected injuries we should be really, really good. And as such, I think it makes perfect sense to be extremely excited about this year's team.

On this we can agree - let's all get excited about Duke basketball!

Let's go Duke! Sure wish we were getting a sneak preview in the DR this month.

[sagegrouse]

I am looking forward to the season but realistic about the performance of the team, at least until mid-season:

Here's how I would describe our starting lineup plus first sub:

G - Senior
G - Freshman
G-F - Freshman
F - Freshman
F - Freshman
C - Sophomore

We have had struggles bringing freshmen along on defense, and many of the best freshmen don't develop good defensive technique against weak HS opponents. We have had troubles getting freshmen to play as a team on offense. Freshmen also have foul troubles.

That said, I expect we will be a lot better at the end of the season than at the beginning.

[wsb3]

Boy was Bob Ryan just snarky about Duke getting Bagley on Around the Horn. He referenced Duke not hanging banner because Alaa had not graduated.

Geez Bob times have changed slightly since 1990.

[duke74]

Boy was Bob Ryan just snarky about Duke getting Bagley on Around the Horn. He referenced Duke not hanging banner because Alaa had not graduated.

Geez Bob times have changed slightly since 1990.

I tweeted him after his comments. He also brought up Maggette (sp?) and dared to compare K to Cal. And that's only after he used the term "manipulative."

[proelitedota]

Boy was Bob Ryan just snarky about Duke getting Bagley on Around the Horn. He referenced Duke not hanging banner because Alaa had not graduated.

Geez Bob times have changed slightly since 1990.

Bob Ryan was just sad that K has made a pact with the devil to coach forever! :cool:

[CDu]

I tweeted him after his comments. He also brought up Maggette (sp?) and dared to compare K to Cal. And that's only after he used the term "manipulative."

To be fair, we are definitely now doing the same thing that Cal is doing in terms of being all-in one the one-and-done factory. Not that I have a problem with it. Calipari was ahead of the game. Now Coach K is one-upping him at it. But they are doing the same thing - heavily recruiting as many of the best players in each recruiting class as possible to try to maximize talent on each roster each year.

[DukieTiger]

To be fair, we are definitely now doing the same thing that Cal is doing in terms of being all-in one the one-and-done factory. Not that I have a problem with it. Calipari was ahead of the game. Now Coach K is one-upping him at it. But they are doing the same thing - heavily recruiting as many of the best players in each recruiting class as possible to try to maximize talent on each roster each year.

Not the same pressure and brand around OADs though, even if the end result is similar.

[CDu]

Not the same pressure and brand around OADs though, even if the end result is similar.

I don't know. That may have been true 2 years ago. Not sure how accurate it is now after last season (a 2-and-done, 3 one-and-dones, and a 4th who wanted to be) and this season (at least 3 more one-and-dones and a possible 2-and-done). If that is not branding yourself as a one-and-done factory, I don't know what is.

[MarkD83]

heavily recruiting as many of the best players in each recruiting class as possible to try to maximize talent on each roster each year.

This is the key phrase. Every coach in the country is also trying to do this. The fact that now these players only stay for one year is not the coaches fault. The day a coach gets a top player to commit and then rescinds the scholarship when the player announces that he will be at school for one year will be a cold day in chapel hill

[duke74]

To be fair, we are definitely now doing the same thing that Cal is doing in terms of being all-in one the one-and-done factory. Not that I have a problem with it. Calipari was ahead of the game. Now Coach K is one-upping him at it. But they are doing the same thing - heavily recruiting as many of the best players in each recruiting class as possible to try to maximize talent on each roster each year.

That wasn't the way I heard it. He was implying misdeeds/unethical behavior. That's the comparison that bothered me.

Perhaps I get annoyed whenever K and Cal are used in the same sentence.

[jimsumner]

To be fair, we are definitely now doing the same thing that Cal is doing in terms of being all-in one the one-and-done factory. Not that I have a problem with it. Calipari was ahead of the game. Now Coach K is one-upping him at it. But they are doing the same thing - heavily recruiting as many of the best players in each recruiting class as possible to try to maximize talent on each roster each year.

How are we defining "all-in? Over the last three seasons, Duke has successfully recruited Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Derryck Thornton, Antonio Vrankovic, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, Jordan Tucker and Jordan Goldwire, none of whom reasonably projected as OAD. This year's targets include D Emmitt Williams, David McCormack and Nassir Little, among others. Is Darius Garland a OAD? Tre Jones?

Duke certainly is going after top-tier talent. But Duke just as clearly trying to blend those guys with four-year players.

[Dukehky]

How are we defining "all-in? Over the last three seasons, Duke has successfully recruited Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Derryck Thornton, Antonio Vrankovic, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, Jordan Tucker and Jordan Goldwire, none of whom reasonably projected as OAD. This year's targets include D Emmitt Williams, David McCormack and Nassir Little, among others. Is Darius Garland a OAD? Tre Jones?

Duke certainly is going after top-tier talent. But Duke just as clearly trying to blend those guys with four-year players.

I think Garland is going to have a hard time being 1 and done. He's a 6'1 scoring guard. He will have a lot of the same problems Tyus does with getting minutes in the league. He's just such a defensive liability and Darius isn't the best pass first pg prospect of his class, if not the last decade (Tyus was that highly regarded in terms of how he can run a team—Hurley-esque).

Tre, on the other hand is a 6'3 beast on defense. If his offense continues to improve, he very well might be a 1 and done. He doesn't have the physical tools of a Duval, but he's the number 7 player in the country (I know Darius is highly ranked as well), and that level of recruit doesn't usually stick around more than a year.

I'm just happy to have him and would be thrilled if Garland came on board as well.

[Troublemaker]

If you want your mouths to water thinking about the upcoming season, Sam Vecenie (a BillyDat fave, iirc) and Scott Phillips do a nice job breaking down Bagley and his fit at Duke this season on Vecenie's Game Theory podcast. As I've said before, I don't necessarily buy the Bagley hype and am in "wait and see" mode with him (i.e. I know he'll be very good but I don't know yet that he's a transcendent talent), but man, that pod was a good listen.

Here's the soundcloud link: https://soundcloud.com/sam-vecenie

[DevilHorse]

Only once. I saw Secretariat win the Belmont!

I just missed him.

But I saw Avatar (with the Shoe), Bold Forbes, missed Seattle Slew to take the GREs, Affirmed (a Freak), Coastal (the Peter Pan winner who beat the Bid), and Temperance Hill. And I saw Ruffian's last start; what a beauty.

Larry
DevilHorse

[CDu]

How are we defining "all-in? Over the last three seasons, Duke has successfully recruited Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Derryck Thornton, Antonio Vrankovic, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Alex O'Connell, Jordan Tucker and Jordan Goldwire, none of whom reasonably projected as OAD. This year's targets include D Emmitt Williams, David McCormack and Nassir Little, among others. Is Darius Garland a OAD? Tre Jones?

Duke certainly is going after top-tier talent. But Duke just as clearly trying to blend those guys with four-year players.

Calipari doesn't only recruit one-and-dones either. I think we are just as all-in on the concept as Calipari is.

[subzero02]

That wasn't the way I heard it. He was implying misdeeds/unethical behavior. That's the comparison that bothered me.

Perhaps I get annoyed whenever K and Cal are used in the same sentence.

You should be...

5 titles to 1 title...

0 final fours vacated to 2...

Enough said.

[Skydog]

I would think that the performance of a freshman heavy class would depend a lot on the quality of the point guard (I know, positionless ball and all, but still). A confident pass-first point guard can help so much with organization and leadership, running fast breaks, and running the team during crunch time - all areas where freshmen need help. I thought last season that in addition to the problems that stem from the injuries and other disruptions that we often looked a bit confused and tentative when bringing the ball up the court. Frank and Grayson had point guard type stats but neither was a traditional point guard, and neither was a steadying leader in the mold of a Bobby Hurley, Tyus, Wojo, etc. I haven't watched much of Duval but if he shows composure, leadership, and knows how to get everyone involved it will go a long way toward ameliorating the problems that inexperienced teams often bring.

tldr version: a very young team with a good pg is going to look a lot better than a very young team with just a bunch of good players, which is what I thought we were last season.

[jimsumner]

Calipari doesn't only recruit one-and-dones either. I think we are just as all-in on the concept as Calipari is.

Perhaps neither is "all-in."

[msdukie]

Boy was Bob Ryan just snarky about Duke getting Bagley on Around the Horn. He referenced Duke not hanging banner because Alaa had not graduated.

Geez Bob times have changed slightly since 1990.

Have they? Duke still does not hang banners if the seniors on those teams do not graduate.

[proelitedota]

I tweeted him after his comments. He also brought up Maggette (sp?) and dared to compare K to Cal. And that's only after he used the term "manipulative."

Cping from my post on scout...

Duke is manipulating Bagley into a potential final four and a guaranteed 1st pick. Duke is greedy by letting Bagley have the opportunity to earn millions that could have gone to Bagley instead.

[wsb3]

Have they? Duke still does not hang banners if the seniors on those teams do not graduate.

That wasn't the point. What you say may well be true but Bob Ryan (from my recliner seat) used that as a reference to how Duke use to do things the right way...& now they don't. Comparisons to Cal.. Brought up Cory Maggette. & used the word...manipulative.. Even the Host questioned him on that word. He stood by it.

So Coach K has adapted to the times. So I stand by my statement that this is not 1990 Bob Ryan & as far as Alaa goes..In the climate of today I doubt he would be at Duke for 4 years.

Bob Ryan portrayed a really unreasonable & harsh assessment of Duke Basketball & he made comparisons to a past that is long gone..Bob could stand to be a little more current in his criticisms. He came off as a hater & maybe he has always been one & I don't pay enough attention to him to know that.

[Troublemaker]

That wasn't the point. What you say may well be true but Bob Ryan (from my recliner seat) used that as a reference to how Duke use to do things the right way...& now they don't. Comparisons to Cal.. Brought up Cory Maggette. & used the word...manipulative.. Even the Host questioned him on that word. He stood by it.

So Coach K has adapted to the times. So I stand by my statement that this is not 1990 Bob Ryan & as far as Alaa goes..In the climate of today I doubt he would be at Duke for 4 years.

Bob Ryan portrayed a really unreasonable & harsh assessment of Duke Basketball & he made comparisons to a past that is long gone..Bob could stand to be a little more current in his criticisms. He came off as a hater & maybe he has always been one & I don't pay enough attention to him to know that.

Bob Ryan reminiscing about pre-internet days when he was considered THE basketball expert nationally. He's an afterthought now behind thousands of ZachLowian bloggers.

[sagegrouse]

Boy was Bob Ryan just snarky about Duke getting Bagley on Around the Horn. He referenced Duke not hanging banner because Alaa had not graduated.

Geez Bob times have changed slightly since 1990.

It was snarky, but Ryan appears to be a decent sorf, although sometimes a curmudgeon.

Here's a somewhat amusing section from his Wikipedia entry:


Retirement

At 60, Ryan wanted his retirement from the job to be graceful: "I’m not bitter. I enjoy my job and I still think I do it well, but they are chipping away, chipping away and they are making it far less pleasurable. I want to get out when I feel like getting out. If you stay around too long, there is no way you can dictate your terms," he said. Ryan also asked, "How do you explain to Stephen A. Smith that he has no idea of the game and how much fun it was? He thinks he knows everything, but he will never know what I know about the Celtics."[2]

On February 14, 2012, during a podcast with Bill Simmons on Grantland.com, Ryan announced that he would retire after the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. Said Ryan, "I really and truly believe that my time has come and gone; that the dynamics of the business, of what it takes, what it means to be involved in the sports business with all the Tweeting and the blogging and all the stuff, and an audience with a different taste - it's not me anymore. I'm not comfortable." Ryan indicated that he would stay involved with sports in a part-time capacity after retirement, but is not interested in continuing at the pace he does now. Ryan's last day as a Red Sox reporter was July 16, 2012.[20]

Ryan's final column in The Boston Globe was published August 12, 2012. He continues writing on a part-time basis as a columnist emeritus. He also remains a regular on ESPN's Around The Horn and occasionally guest hosts Pardon the Interruption with Michael Wilbon or Tony Kornheiser.

Ryan was also on hand for "the shot" at the Spectrum in 1992. From my post on Verne Lundquist, who called the game:

Verne on the immediate aftermath: “Well,” he said, “there was total silence [at the mike] for a few minutes and the camera just panned the court and all the celebrations going on. Then Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe came over and asked Len Elmore [Verne’s partner that day – who knew?], ‘Until today I thought the ACC final you played against North Carolina State in 1974 was the best college basketball game I had ever seen. Which game do you think was better?’ Len hesitated for a long minute and finally said, ‘I think this game may have been better.’”

[wsb3]

It was snarky, but Ryan appears to be a decent sorf, although sometimes a curmudgeon.

I would agree with you Sagegrouse. I watch PTI more than any other sports show & I have liked it when he filled in unlike some of the others they bring in..

[Kedsy]

as far as Alaa goes..In the climate of today I doubt he would be at Duke for 4 years.

What do you think would have happened to him? Alaa barely played his first two years at Duke, and even his junior year he only played 16 mpg. He was a classic "blossomed as a senior" story.

[Troublemaker]

GoDuke press release (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211661564&DB_OEM_ID=4200) for Bagley committing to Duke, in case not posted already

“Marvin is a special basketball talent and a tremendous young man,” Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “He is completely dedicated to his improvement as both a player and student and, given his family’s deep history in this area, he is fully aware of what it means to be part of Duke University. We’re thrilled to add Marvin to our program.”

Bagley III’s father, Marvin Bagley, Jr., is a Durham, N.C., native who played football at North Carolina A&T.

[wsb3]

What do you think would have happened to him? Alaa barely played his first two years at Duke, and even his junior year he only played 16 mpg. He was a classic "blossomed as a senior" story.

But in today's climate there would not be all those veterans in front of him & we know the NBA loves to draft young potential.

If memory serves me well he was pretty highly recruited. Not sure where he was ranked in his class.

[Kedsy]

But in today's climate there would not be all those veterans in front of him & we know the NBA loves to draft young potential.

Disagree. Other than Ferry, I don't think any of those "veterans in front of him" played in the NBA at all. They almost certainly wouldn't have left early (again, other than Ferry). Also, my recollection is Alaa didn't necessarily love basketball enough in his early years to do what needed to be done to be a legit pro prospect.

[jimsumner]

Disagree. Other than Ferry, I don't think any of those "veterans in front of him" played in the NBA at all. They almost certainly wouldn't have left early (again, other than Ferry). Also, my recollection is Alaa didn't necessarily love basketball enough in his early years to do what needed to be done to be a legit pro prospect.

I agree. In 1988, AA's sophomore season, he was so raw that K went with a starting frontcourt of 6-10 Ferry, 6-6 Billy King and 6-5 Robert Brickey. Abdelnaby also played behind John Smith that season.

Alaa has made no attempt to hide the fact that was a bit on the immature side early in his Duke career. Perhaps more than a bit.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm laughing. Alumni of Duke University are pretty much responsible for the Nets being the laughing stock of the NBA.

First, Billy King basically murdered the Nets' draft prospects until 2019. And Nets fans are looking forward to the 2019-20 season because they will likely have a top 5 pick who they can build around.

Well, the star prospect from the 2019 draft class just recommitted to the 2018 draft class...because of Jeff Capel.

You can read more here: https://www.sbnation.com/2017/8/15/16150440/marvin-bagley-reclassification-duke-nba-draft-2018-nets-losers

[brlftz]

I'm laughing. Alumni of Duke University are pretty much responsible for the Nets being the laughing stock of the NBA.

First, Billy King basically murdered the Nets' draft prospects until 2019. And Nets fans are looking forward to the 2019-20 season because they will likely have a top 5 pick who they can build around.

Well, the star prospect from the 2019 draft class just recommitted to the 2018 draft class...because of Jeff Capel.

You can read more here: https://www.sbnation.com/2017/8/15/16150440/marvin-bagley-reclassification-duke-nba-draft-2018-nets-losers

to be fair to billy, i think he was basically given a mandate to win now, screw the future. he did a reasonable job given his orders. this is how i recall it, i may be wrong.

[CDu]

to be fair to billy, i think he was basically given a mandate to win now, screw the future. he did a reasonable job given his orders. this is how i recall it, i may be wrong.

Yes, he was given a mandate to win now, screw the future. But, actually, kind of the opposite happened. The Nets went 49-33 in 2013. That summer, in advance of their move to Brooklyn, Prokhorov may well have pushed King to make a big splash. But King made an absolutely awful trade: a bunch of draft picks, role players, and Gerald Wallace for the aging Paul Pierce (36), Jason Terry (36), and Kevin Garnett (37). And they signed a rookie coach in Jason Kidd who had no coaching experience of any kind to lead the team. The "win-now" move actually resulted in a worse record in 2014 (44-38). And they were under .500 in the next year.

There had to be a better way to go about it than to essentially trade 4 first round picks for guys on their last legs.

[wsb3]

I agree. In 1988, AA's sophomore season, he was so raw that K went with a starting frontcourt of 6-10 Ferry, 6-6 Billy King and 6-5 Robert Brickey. Abdelnaby also played behind John Smith that season.

Alaa has made no attempt to hide the fact that was a bit on the immature side early in his Duke career. Perhaps more than a bit.

You & Kedsey may be dead right. My original statement was I am not sure he would be at Duke all 4 years in the climate of today. I didn't say he would be OAD. I am not really thinking as much about 1988 as thinking of a young Alaa with his athletic ability & size came in now & again the way the game is today..the way the NBA drafts today.

Jim no doubt his immaturity held him way back. I always felt like physically he was really talented but the mental aspect of the game..taking the game seriously that was lacking. He drove me bonkers often..

Wasn't there a great quote by Lefty Driesell who recruited Alaa?

"The most heavily recruited Egyptian since Cleopatra."

[NSDukeFan]

You & Kedsey may be dead right. My original statement was I am not sure he would be at Duke all 4 years in the climate of today. I didn't say he would be OAD. I am not really thinking as much about 1988 as thinking of a young Alaa with his athletic ability & size came in now & again the way the game is today..the way the NBA drafts today.

Jim no doubt his immaturity held him way back. I always felt like physically he was really talented but the mental aspect of the game..taking the game seriously that was lacking. He drove me bonkers often..

Wasn't there a great quote by Lefty Driesell who recruited Alaa?

"The most heavily recruited Egyptian since Cleopatra."

My very vague recollection is of loving Alaa's post moves.

[brlftz]

Yes, he was given a mandate to win now, screw the future. But, actually, kind of the opposite happened. The Nets went 49-33 in 2013. That summer, in advance of their move to Brooklyn, Prokhorov may well have pushed King to make a big splash. But King made an absolutely awful trade: a bunch of draft picks, role players, and Gerald Wallace for the aging Paul Pierce (36), Jason Terry (36), and Kevin Garnett (37). And they signed a rookie coach in Jason Kidd who had no coaching experience of any kind to lead the team. The "win-now" move actually resulted in a worse record in 2014 (44-38). And they were under .500 in the next year.

There had to be a better way to go about it than to essentially trade 4 first round picks for guys on their last legs.

he gambled big time, and it didn't work out. but i don't think he had any reasonable path to fulfill the mandate, so he pretty much had to do something crazy like that. i'm sad that he ended up in that spot, though, because obviously it destroyed his reputation

[Troublemaker]

Oh, man, still giddy that this happened.

The Carter-Bagley frontcourt duo is potentially devastating. Carter might turn out to be the best C in the country, and Bagley might turn out to be the best PF in the country. It's in the realm of possibility. I also like that Bagley is left-handed so if Duke runs a double-low-post set, Bagley could post on his preferred right block, and Carter could post on his preferred left block. They both apparently have pretty nice passing vision, too, so they can make teams pay for double-teams.

[MarkD83]

Oh, man, still giddy that this happened.

The Carter-Bagley frontcourt duo is potentially devastating. Carter might turn out to be the best C in the country, and Bagley might turn out to be the best PF in the country. It's in the realm of possibility. I also like that Bagley is left-handed so if Duke runs a double-low-post set, Bagley could post on his preferred right block, and Carter could post on his preferred left block. They both apparently have pretty nice passing vision, too, so they can make teams pay for double-teams.

So who is going to be the first on this board to complain when Duke runs a 4 out 1 in set with the big men setting top of the key picks to set up 3 point shots.

[martydoesntfoul]

My very vague recollection is of loving Alaa's post moves.Well what about his dance moves? Does anyone remember his "Walk Like an Egyptian" performance during the since-shuttered West Campus-based Lip Sync contest?

[CDu]

So who is going to be the first on this board to complain when Duke runs a 4 out 1 in set with the big men setting top of the key picks to set up 3 point shots.

I will say this: I sure won't mind playing high pick-and-roll with Duval or Allen handling and Bagley rim running after setting the screen.

[Troublemaker]

I will say this: I sure won't mind playing high pick-and-roll with Duval or Allen handling and Bagley rim running after setting the screen.

Yeah, lots of pick-n-roll would be my preference with this talent. Mix in some postups and some horns sets. Less floppy.

And fastbreak like crazy with Duval, of course.

Fun times. Stay healthy, please.

[weezie]

I'm ordering the Baby Jump Hook. Can I get some fries with that shake shake cutie?

[proelitedota]

Don't want to see much fast breaks at all where a player is going coast to coast. 2015 was the only team in recent memory where I wasn't worried about injuries while running due to the fact that everyone except Mattie Ice were good at taking the ball to the hole without getting physical.

Duval and Grayson would get injured eventually given how aggressive they are when driving.

[Kedsy]

Don't want to see much fast breaks at all where a player is going coast to coast. 2015 was the only team in recent memory where I wasn't worried about injuries while running due to the fact that everyone except Mattie Ice were good at taking the ball to the hole without getting physical.

Duval and Grayson would get injured eventually given how aggressive they are when driving.

I hear you but fast breaks are going to be a critical part of next season's team's offense. Can't play to avoid injury.

[proelitedota]

I hear you but fast breaks are going to be a critical part of next season's team's offense. Can't play to avoid injury.

With the talent on the team, we can win every game via half court possessions only.

[Kedsy]

With the talent on the team, we can win every game via half court possessions only.

Entirely disagree. We won't shoot well enough for that.

With our personnel, one of our biggest weapons will be the fast break. It would be foolish to give that weapon away out of a fear of injury, which can strike at any time anyway, even if you're being careful.

[mark34]

Well what about his dance moves? Does anyone remember his "Walk Like an Egyptian" performance during the since-shuttered West Campus-based Lip Sync contest?

I do. He did that move a lot in those days.

[CDu]

Entirely disagree. We won't shoot well enough for that.

With our personnel, one of our biggest weapons will be the fast break. It would be foolish to give that weapon away out of a fear of injury, which can strike at any time anyway, even if you're being careful.

I disagree with your first paragraph. True, we won't be able to play halfcourt offense the same way we have the past few years, because we won't have the shooters to do so. But we won't play offense like we did the past few years. As usual, we will tailor the halfcourt offense to our team's strengths. With this team, I think we will see more pick-and-roll and more post play. And with the post and pick-and-roll options we have, I think we would still thrive in a half-court offense.

Of course, it is a moot point. We have never been a team that turns down transition opportunities, and we won't turn them down this year either. But I definitely think we have the talent to dominate as a halfcourt team if they wanted to do so.

[wsb3]

Entirely disagree. We won't shoot well enough for that.

With our personnel, one of our biggest weapons will be the fast break. It would be foolish to give that weapon away out of a fear of injury, which can strike at any time anyway, even if you're being careful.

Agree with Kedsy, though I hope we are surprisingly better an outside shooting team than we might expect.

[Kedsy]

I disagree with your first paragraph. True, we won't be able to play halfcourt offense the same way we have the past few years, because we won't have the shooters to do so. But we won't play offense like we did the past few years. As usual, we will tailor the halfcourt offense to our team's strengths. With this team, I think we will see more pick-and-roll and more post play. And with the post and pick-and-roll options we have, I think we would still thrive in a half-court offense.

Of course, it is a moot point. We have never been a team that turns down transition opportunities, and we won't turn them down this year either. But I definitely think we have the talent to dominate as a halfcourt team if they wanted to do so.

Fair enough. We should be hard to stop in the pick-and-roll.

[Spanarkel]

Will preface this by saying that as an '83 DU grad I know virtually nothing about the twitterverse so this post may be totally misguided, but color me surprised that of the 13 current Duke MBB players, 4 posted twitter notices about MB3's recent commitment to Duke(Jordan Goldwire/Alex O'Connell/Jordan Tucker/Trevon Duval). There are probably multiple explanations for this, including: 1) a good many of the players don't post very often at all; 2)some probably just direct messaged MB3; and 3)some may have more than one twitter account that I wasn't able to find. I know that Duke MBB players are not the average young adult and probably don't spend nearly the estimated 8+ hours a day on social media due to their multiple other commitments/activities. Any thoughts? (not trying to brew any "conspiracy theories" here). Thanks!

[BD80]

Will preface this by saying that as an '83 DU grad I know virtually nothing about the twitterverse so this post may be totally misguided, but color me surprised that of the 13 current Duke MBB players, 4 posted twitter notices about MB3's recent commitment to Duke(Jordan Goldwire/Alex O'Connell/Jordan Tucker/Trevon Duval). There are probably multiple explanations for this, including: 1) a good many of the players don't post very often at all; 2)some probably just direct messaged MB3; and 3)some may have more than one twitter account that I wasn't able to find. I know that Duke MBB players are not the average young adult and probably don't spend nearly the estimated 8+ hours a day on social media due to their multiple other commitments/activities. Any thoughts? (not trying to brew any "conspiracy theories" here). Thanks!

Twitter is going the way of Myspace?

[Skitzle]

Any updates on reclassification process? I feel like we're all just assuming he will actually play this year...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Any updates on reclassification process? I feel like we're all just assuming he will actually play this year...

I may be optimistically naive, but I don't think Duke would sign Bagley if there was plenty of risk that he wouldn't be eligible. I would like to think that Duke does a "due diligence first, offer second" approach, even with a talent like Bagley.

I'd be surprised if this was an Enes Kanter-type situation. I'm expecting Bagley to suit up for all games.

[bob blue devil]

I may be optimistically naive, but I don't think Duke would sign Bagley if there was plenty of risk that he wouldn't be eligible. I would like to think that Duke does a "due diligence first, offer second" approach, even with a talent like Bagley.

I'd be surprised if this was an Enes Kanter-type situation. I'm expecting Bagley to suit up for all games.

honest question - why wouldn't duke sign bagley even if there was a big risk he'd be ineligible? still plenty of upside. A+ practice player for teammates. Another potential NBA star who is connected with Duke. We are under the scholly limit for this season, so he's not taking the spot of another player. i just don't see a whole lot of risk (outside of normal risks with any player). it's not like there is anything shady about it assuming he's fit to be a student at duke and duke follows the ncaa rules in terms of the eligibility process.

[sagegrouse]

I may be optimistically naive, but I don't think Duke would sign Bagley if there was plenty of risk that he wouldn't be eligible. I would like to think that Duke does a "due diligence first, offer second" approach, even with a talent like Bagley.

I'd be surprised if this was an Enes Kanter-type situation. I'm expecting Bagley to suit up for all games.

As soon as Bagley announced, the GoDuke.com (official Duke) was modified to add Bagley to the roster. I wouldn't worry about his eligibility. Duke talks to the NCAA all the time.

[Ichabod Drain]

honest question - why wouldn't duke sign bagley even if there was a big risk he'd be ineligible? still plenty of upside. A+ practice player for teammates. Another potential NBA star who is connected with Duke. We are under the scholly limit for this season, so he's not taking the spot of another player. i just don't see a whole lot of risk (outside of normal risks with any player). it's not like there is anything shady about it assuming he's fit to be a student at duke and duke follows the ncaa rules in terms of the eligibility process.

If Bagley wasn't eligible to play this year I doubt he stays at Duke for the year. He would most likely just spend the year training on his own with no limits on practice, workouts, and money he can receive from agents and sponsors.

[Troublemaker]

honest question - why wouldn't duke sign bagley even if there was a big risk he'd be ineligible? still plenty of upside. A+ practice player for teammates. Another potential NBA star who is connected with Duke. We are under the scholly limit for this season, so he's not taking the spot of another player. i just don't see a whole lot of risk (outside of normal risks with any player). it's not like there is anything shady about it assuming he's fit to be a student at duke and duke follows the ncaa rules in terms of the eligibility process.

There's a risk of disappointing me, hurting my fan feelings and wrecking all my rotation projections. That's quite enough. I *need* Bagley to be eligible (and like others, am very confident he will be).

[BD80]

... Duke talks to the NCAA all the time.

But we don't get the special treatment that unc gets! unc gets these long love letters asking about players from all sports over the last couple of decades.

The NCAA even invited unc and its top coaches to spend a couple of days away with them (I think the ncaa was just being coi)

[bob blue devil]

If Bagley wasn't eligible to play this year I doubt he stays at Duke for the year. He would most likely just spend the year training on his own with no limits on practice, workouts, and money he can receive from agents and sponsors.

by being ineligible, wouldn't he technically be able to partake in those things? agree, though, that duke probably wouldn't be the best place for that.

[Rich]

As soon as Bagley announced, the GoDuke.com (official Duke) was modified to add Bagley to the roster. I wouldn't worry about his eligibility. Duke talks to the NCAA all the time.

So does Carolina, but I suppose the conversations are a bit different. ;)

[Ichabod Drain]

by being ineligible, wouldn't he technically be able to partake in those things? agree, though, that duke probably wouldn't be the best place for that.

If he were still a scholarship player he would have to follow NCAA rules or the team would be punished.

[Olympic Fan]

by being ineligible, wouldn't he technically be able to partake in those things? agree, though, that duke probably wouldn't be the best place for that.

I know that when Enes Kanter was at Kentucky, waiting for a ruling from the NCAA Clearinghouse, he was able to practice with the team. Even after he was ruled ineligible, he was still able to practice with the team. He was not allowed to travel with the team on Kentucky's dime.

No problem with Bagley working out at Duke formally or informally.

And, I'm told, there are no real concerns about his eligibility this season.

[DukeFanSince1990]

Bagley arrives at Duke:

http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/Marvin-Bagley-enrolls-at-Duke-106395113

[UrinalCake]

I know that when Enes Kanter was at Kentucky, waiting for a ruling from the NCAA Clearinghouse, he was able to practice with the team. Even after he was ruled ineligible, he was still able to practice with the team. He was not allowed to travel with the team on Kentucky's dime.

After he was ruled ineligible, Kentucky hired him onto their staff as an assistant coach. That was the only reason he was allowed to practice with the team.

[UrinalCake]

There's a risk of disappointing me, hurting my fan feelings and wrecking all my rotation projections. That's quite enough. I *need* Bagley to be eligible (and like others, am very confident he will be).

More seriously, it would be really embarrassing to the school if he passed their admissions office but was later deemed by the NCAA to have not met the sufficient requirements to have graduated high school.

[BD80]

Bagley arrives at Duke:

http://duke.247sports.com/Bolt/Marvin-Bagley-enrolls-at-Duke-106395113

Shortest period between commitment and enrollment in Duke history?

[duke79]

More seriously, it would be really embarrassing to the school if he passed their admissions office but was later deemed by the NCAA to have not met the sufficient requirements to have graduated high school.


Shortest period between commitment and enrollment in Duke history?

LOL, yea, don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's at Duke.......but, how exactly do you graduate a year early from high school and then be admitted to one of the most competitive colleges in the county, all in the span of two weeks? Should we be bothered by this? Some of my non-Duke friends have given me grief about this whole maneuver. LOL.

[budwom]

Shortest period between commitment and enrollment in Duke history?

Perhaps cosmic payback for the near matriculation of Bill Bradley who committed to Duke but then, at the 11th hour, didn't show up? Cosmos works in strange ways as yesterday's Moon vs. Sun illustrated.
Bill fails to show, and 56 years later Marvin shows up in his place. Twilight Zone stuff.

[Olympic Fan]

LOL, yea, don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's at Duke....but, how exactly do you graduate a year early from high school and then be admitted to one of the most competitive colleges in the county, all in the span of two weeks? Should we be bothered by this? Some of my non-Duke friends have given me grief about this whole maneuver. LOL.

C'mon, don't be naïve ... how many athletes enter with the academic profile of a normal Duke student? Duke is not alone in this matter -- EVERY major college and university (including most of the Ivy League) makes exceptions for athletes.

Out of 12 scholarship basketball players and 80-plus football players, I doubt that 25 would qualify as non-athletes.

Of course, Bagley's acceptance was out of the norm -- but no more out of the norm than Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor or Trevon Duval. Now, Wendell Carter may very well have gotten into Duke with his grades, but he's the exception -- not Mr. Bagley.

[left_hook_lacey]

LOL, yea, don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's at Duke....but, how exactly do you graduate a year early from high school and then be admitted to one of the most competitive colleges in the county, all in the span of two weeks? Should we be bothered by this? Some of my non-Duke friends have given me grief about this whole maneuver. LOL.


Exactly how does this get done without the "benefits not generally available to other students" tag? I know there must be an existing system in place to make sure we're in compliance, but it seems like a risky thing to continually partake in.

Are the admissions standards and procedures for student-athletes different than the general student body?

[flyingdutchdevil]

C'mon, don't be naïve ... how many athletes enter with the academic profile of a normal Duke student? Duke is not alone in this matter -- EVERY major college and university (including most of the Ivy League) makes exceptions for athletes.

Out of 12 scholarship basketball players and 80-plus football players, I doubt that 25 would qualify as non-athletes.

Of course, Bagley's acceptance was out of the norm -- but no more out of the norm than Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor or Trevon Duval. Now, Wendell Carter may very well have gotten into Duke with his grades, but he's the exception -- not Mr. Bagley.

I still don't think you're giving Duke and it's non-athlete student population enough credit. I'd argue that less than 3% of basketball/football players could get into Duke on academics. And that 3% is probably being very, very, very generous. Duke's acceptance rate was 9.2%, and the vast majority of students who applied are in the top 10% of their respective classes.

Duke is a phenomenal academic institution. I really doubt that Carter nor Allen get into Duke without sports. Just because you "enjoy your studies" doesn't mean you are qualified to get into Duke.

[kAzE]

I still don't think you're giving Duke and it's non-athlete student population enough credit. I'd argue that less than 3% of basketball/football players could get into Duke on academics. And that 3% is probably being very, very, very generous. Duke's acceptance rate was 9.2%, and the vast majority of students who applied are in the top 10% of their respective classes.

Duke is a phenomenal academic institution. I really doubt that Carter nor Allen get into Duke without sports. Just because you "enjoy your studies" doesn't mean you are qualified to get into Duke.

I think 3% might not be giving enough credit to some these guys . . .

It wouldn't surprise me if a decent number of our basketball players could have gotten into Duke on their academic merits. Grayson has been Academic All-ACC first or 2nd team every single year he's been at Duke, holding down a pretty solid GPA as a psych major. Chase Jeter was killing it in the classroom, too.

I would also suspect that all the former players who have been on the coaching staff are pretty smart guys with high academic credentials as well.

[budwom]

^ could be true, but in general it's MUCH tougher getting into the top schools than it is to do well academically once you're in.

[CDu]

I think 3% might not be giving enough credit to some these guys . . .

It wouldn't surprise me if a decent number of our basketball players could have gotten into Duke on their academic merits. Grayson has been Academic All-ACC first or 2nd team every single year he's been at Duke, holding down a pretty solid GPA as a psych major. Chase Jeter was killing it in the classroom, too.

There is a difference between being capable of handling Duke coursework admirably and being able to get accepted in to Duke as a general admissions case. The admissions process for the average student excludes TONS of people who would/could do quite well in school, the vast majority of whom have better academic resumes than the athletes. I highly doubt that these kids would have had the academic resumes to beat out enough general admission candidates to get accepted without their athletes profile.

That's not to badmouth any of these kids. It is amazing that they can both be elite athletes and do well academically. Just saying that the general admission student at Duke is off the charts academically.

[duke79]

C'mon, don't be naïve ... how many athletes enter with the academic profile of a normal Duke student? Duke is not alone in this matter -- EVERY major college and university (including most of the Ivy League) makes exceptions for athletes.

Out of 12 scholarship basketball players and 80-plus football players, I doubt that 25 would qualify as non-athletes.

Of course, Bagley's acceptance was out of the norm -- but no more out of the norm than Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor or Trevon Duval. Now, Wendell Carter may very well have gotten into Duke with his grades, but he's the exception -- not Mr. Bagley.


Exactly how does this get done without the "benefits not generally available to other students" tag? I know there must be an existing system in place to make sure we're in compliance, but it seems like a risky thing to continually partake in.

Are the admissions standards and procedures for student-athletes different than the general student body?


I still don't think you're giving Duke and it's non-athlete student population enough credit. I'd argue that less than 3% of basketball/football players could get into Duke on academics. And that 3% is probably being very, very, very generous. Duke's acceptance rate was 9.2%, and the vast majority of students who applied are in the top 10% of their respective classes.

Duke is a phenomenal academic institution. I really doubt that Carter nor Allen get into Duke without sports. Just because you "enjoy your studies" doesn't mean you are qualified to get into Duke.


LOL, I'm NOT naive......I know what the score is when it comes to recruiting star athletes at ALL colleges (my wife's best friend is a professor at the number 1 ranked Division 3 college - per US News and World Report - with a very strong athletic program (for Div. 3) and no athletic scholarships and she is constantly complaining about how the college admits too many not-very-good students who happen to be jocks) and, no doubt, the admission standards and procedures are VERY different for certain athletes at these schools., including Duke, Stanford, ND, the Ivy League, etc. I think you can argue that the schools should be able to conduct their admission policies any way they want (per athletes, affirmative action, legacy kids, etc.); it may be unfair to certain applicants but, hey, life is unfair. I have no clue how many basketball and football scholarship athletes would be admitted to Duke if they were not jocks, but I'm guessing it's not 25% and I'd like to think it is higher than 3%, though; but who knows for sure?

[kAzE]

There is a difference between being capable of handling Duke coursework admirably and being able to get accepted in to Duke as a general admissions case. The admissions process for the average student excludes TONS of people who would/could do quite well in school, the vast majority of whom have better academic resumes than the athletes. I highly doubt that these kids would have had the academic resumes to beat out enough general admission candidates to get accepted without their athletes profile.

That's not to badmouth any of these kids. It is amazing that they can both be elite athletes and do well academically. Just saying that the general admission student at Duke is off the charts academically.

Right, but because of that, elite universities look for extracurriculars and community service to distinguish the best of the best. Grayson Allen had a 4.4 GPA, a very respectable SAT score, and was the #20 ranked basketball player in the nation. Even if he wanted to quit basketball, and pursue a career in an academic field of study, that resume might have been enough to get him into Duke.

You don't get grades that good AND be that good at basketball without being really smart and having an amazing work ethic. I like to believe Grayson was Duke material with or without basketball. His desire to stay 4 years and complete his Duke education only reinforces that opinion.

[duke79]

^ could be true, but in general it's MUCH tougher getting into the top schools than it is to do well academically once you're in.

This is VERY true......for Duke and just about every other top college. Sort of an offshoot of the famous Woody Allen quip: "90% of life is just showing up". I would say, the hardest part of most of these schools is getting in.

[CDu]

Right, but because of that, elite universities look for extracurriculars and community service to distinguish the best of the best. Grayson Allen had a 4.4 GPA, a very respectable SAT score, and was the #20 ranked basketball player in the nation. Even if he wanted to quit basketball, and pursue a career in an academic field of study, that resume might have been enough to get him into Duke.

You don't get grades that good AND be that good at basketball without being really smart and having an amazing work ethic. I like to believe Grayson was Duke material with or without basketball. His desire to stay 4 years and complete his Duke education only reinforces that opinion.

Your statement was "more than 3% would get in on their academic merits." I disagree. Had Allen said, "yeah, I want to go to Duke, but I don't want to play basketball", I don't think he gets in, nor do I think he comes particularly close. I think his SAT would probably drop him from consideration. Extracurricular activities have value, but when the applicant is applying just for academics, they are still secondary.

Ultimately, you either have to have the grades, the connections (money, lineage, etc.), or both, to get your foot in the door. From there, extracurricular activities help your case. So as soon as Allen stops playing basketball in that hypothetical, his basketball experience takes on much less value. And I don't think his academic profile would be enough to get into the discussion to let his extracurricular activities give him the edge.

What makes Allen a great fit for Duke is that he is elite at basketball, and his continued pursuit of elite-level basketball aligns with Duke Athletics' goals, and his academic profile given that he's here first and foremost to play basketball, is strong enough to warrant adding him to the basketball team and student body. But I think his resume would fall well short if he was applying as a general student. And I think Allen is one of the stronger academic student-athletes we've had in the revenue sports, certainly in basketball.

[The Gordog]

Your statement was "more than 3% would get in on their academic merits." I disagree. Had Allen said, "yeah, I want to go to Duke, but I don't want to play basketball", I don't think he gets in, nor do I think he comes particularly close. I think his SAT would probably drop him from consideration. Extracurricular activities have value, but when the applicant is applying just for academics, they are still secondary.

Ultimately, you either have to have the grades, the connections (money, lineage, etc.), or both, to get your foot in the door. From there, extracurricular activities help your case. So as soon as Allen stops playing basketball in that hypothetical, his basketball experience takes on much less value. And I don't think his academic profile would be enough to get into the discussion to let his extracurricular activities give him the edge.

What makes Allen a great fit for Duke is that he is elite at basketball, and his continued pursuit of elite-level basketball aligns with Duke Athletics' goals, and his academic profile given that he's here first and foremost to play basketball, is strong enough to warrant adding him to the basketball team and student body. But I think his resume would fall well short if he was applying as a general student. And I think Allen is one of the stronger academic student-athletes we've had in the revenue sports, certainly in basketball.

How does anyone on this board know Grayson's SAT score?

[devildeac]

How does anyone on this board know Grayson's SAT score?

Dean knew...

[COYS]

I know this has been said before, but it's worth repeating. Bagley was held back one year for athletic reasons, which is typical for MANY D1 athletes. Academically, he probably was already qualified to graduate save for finishing up a random class or possibly taking a required standardized test. He will be heading to college at the same age as someone who graduated "on time."

[CDu]

How does anyone on this board know Grayson's SAT score?

Just hypothesizing, because if it was on the order of a general admin we would likely have heard all about it.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I know this has been said before, but it's worth repeating. Bagley was held back one year for athletic reasons, which is typical for MANY D1 athletes. Academically, he probably was already qualified to graduate save for finishing up a random class or possibly taking a required standardized test. He will be heading to college at the same age as someone who graduated "on time."

Not true. Bagley completed three years of HS. The attached article is from the end of 7th grade in 2013, meaning he would be finishing 12th grade in 2018. So he only did 3 years of HS. I know somewhere there is something about him having a 4.0 but I think that is from 8th or 9th grade. And he attended several different high schools.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/recruiting/2013/07/03/14-year-old-phenom-marvin-bagley-iii-loaded-with-scholarship-offers/2478521/

I will leave it at that. I don't feel super comfortable discussing the details of a specific student-athlete's academic profile. Not to revisit a really old conversation, but I also think that Duke should keep the "student" in "student-athlete," regardless of what the current rules permit and what other schools are doing. I think exceptions can and should be made because athletes have a special talent, but they are hopefully all within a few standard deviations of the rest of the student body. I am not privy to the application file of any athlete so I will hope that admissions is not being completely railroaded for the good of the basketball or football team. During my time at Duke there were a number of athletes who were clearly a notch below academically but few that were clear negative outliers.

[Bluedog]

Is this still the Marvin Bagley welcoming thread? :p


Just hypothesizing, because if it was on the order of a general admin we would likely have heard all about it.

I agree in all likelihood, but it'd be up to the discretion of the athlete to disclose that. The last two I recall are Zoubek and Kelly. Zoubek, as you all recall, chose Duke over Princeton and Stanford. He scored a 1360 on verbal+math, certainly an admirable score, but one that would be on the lower range of admitted Duke students. Obviously, Princeton and Stanford had no problem with that either. Ryan Kelly was National Merit Scholar Semifinalist, had a 4.0 GPA in high school, and a 2150 SAT (when it was three parts, of course). Clearly, an amazing student and somebody who is "competitive for Duke" academically, but MOST "competitive for Duke" students do NOT get admitted.

Also you have to understand that these top flight basketball recruits who are very academically inclined could likely get EVEN higher scores if they did the multiple tests/tutoring that most Duke applicants must do to get admitted, but they simply choose not to because it's unnecessary for their admission. Many people increase their SAT score 200-300 points over the course of studying and ACT score 3-5 points. It's certainly not unheard of.

Obviously, there is a large gap at universities between athletes and their non-athlete students, particularly at top flight schools in revenue sports. Anybody thinking otherwise is diluting themselves. But the point about extracurriculars is a good one -- somebody who is nationally renowned artist or dancer would also be given extra consideration, it's not just athletes. They also bring a different strength to the university that benefits everybody. The university wants to be a collection of individuals that are exceptional good at different things, not all the same things (also known as looking for "angular" candidates instead of "well-rounded" candidates).

You can easily google some stats that show the gaps:
https://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/paper-trail/2008/12/30/athletes-show-huge-gaps-in-sat-scores

And here's one from the Duke Chronicle in 2006, showing some stats (NOTE: this is an editorial/opinion piece, but the only one I could find that had statistics, so hopefully she did her research correctly...):
http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2006/10/fight-blue-devils-fight

First, let's start with the facts: For the Class of 2007, 768 male non-athletes were admitted to Duke with an average SAT score of 1,438, while 42 recruited athletes averaged 1,172. For females, 786 non-athletes averaged 1,403, versus 37 athletes' 1,258.

That's a 266-point gap for males and a 145-point gap for females.


And in case you're interested in a team-by-team breakdown, the eight men's baseball team recruits averaged 1,206 that year, while 22 football players averaged 1,063 and the five men's basketball players came in last at 997. All 14 other recruited male athletes averaged 1,258...Considering the national average for the 2002 SAT was 1,026, it's a safe bet that few (if any) non-athletes could even get their foot in the door with stats like the ones above.

It's an interesting debate/discussion and I can understand the varying viewpoints, but, boy, do I love me some Duke basketball of course! :D

[kAzE]

Also you have to understand that these top flight basketball recruits who are very academically inclined could likely get EVEN higher scores if they did the multiple tests/tutoring that most Duke applicants must do to get admitted, but they simply choose not to because it's unnecessary for their admission. Many people increase their SAT score 200-300 points over the course of studying and ACT score 3-5 points. It's certainly not unheard of.

There's also the significant time commitment that comes with playing high level high school sports (and in many cases multiple sports). The opportunity cost is spending less time working on academic studies. A 2-sport athlete's 3.6 GPA is more impressive than a 4.0 student who participated in no extracurricular activities, IMO, and in many cases, this is what you see in the admissions for elite academic universities nowadays.

[MrPoon]

Not true. Bagley completed three years of HS. The attached article is from the end of 7th grade in 2013, meaning he would be finishing 12th grade in 2018. So he only did 3 years of HS. I know somewhere there is something about him having a 4.0 but I think that is from 8th or 9th grade. And he attended several different high schools.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/recruiting/2013/07/03/14-year-old-phenom-marvin-bagley-iii-loaded-with-scholarship-offers/2478521/

I will leave it at that. I don't feel super comfortable discussing the details of a specific student-athlete's academic profile. Not to revisit a really old conversation, but I also think that Duke should keep the "student" in "student-athlete," regardless of what the current rules permit and what other schools are doing. I think exceptions can and should be made because athletes have a special talent, but they are hopefully all within a /few standard deviations of the rest of the student body. I am not privy to the application file of any athlete so I will hope that admissions is not being completely railroaded for the good of the basketball or football team. During my time at Duke there were a number of athletes who were clearly a notch below academically but few that were clear negative outliers.

I am sorry I can't provide the link to prove this rumor, but I have it on good "insider" sources that Bagley III was able to use Danny Ferry's SAT score too. Hope that clears everything up on his eligibility.

Sorry, couldn't help myself. I don't understand any of this debate. If Duke is posting his name on the roster, they clearly believe he graduated HS. I don't know his academic standing but this going back and forth doesn't make sense to me. If he is a OAD or a four year player, schools, even Duke, make room for athletes all the time and I strongly suspect that Bagley isn't the one that needed the most...er...wiggle room in K's history. Just because he reclassified doesn't automatically mean he isn't a candidate for Duke in a way that others may be. With all the the players that have come and gone, I am sure there are four year players who were less academically qualified than Bagley. The school and K think he's a Duke student... so do I.

[devildeac]

I am sorry I can't provide the link to prove this rumor, but I have it on good "insider" sources that Bagley III was able to use Danny Ferry's SAT score too. Hope that clears everything up on his eligibility.

Sorry, couldn't help myself. I don't understand any of this debate. If Duke is posting his name on the roster, they clearly believe he graduated HS. I don't know his academic standing but this going back and forth doesn't make sense to me. If he is a OAD or a four year player, schools, even Duke, make room for athletes all the time and I strongly suspect that Bagley isn't the one that needed the most...er...wiggle room in K's history. Just because he reclassified doesn't automatically mean he isn't a candidate for Duke in a way that others may be. With all the the players that have come and gone, I am sure there are four year players who were less academically qualified than Bagley. The school and K think he's a Duke student... so do I.


As I posted earlier, dean knew...

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/02/dean_smith_obit_the_legendary_university_of_north_ carolina_basketball_coach.html

"...Smith boasted to reporters that Reid and Scott Williams, another black UNC player, had higher combined SAT scores than two white Duke stars, Danny Ferry and Christian Laettner..."

:o

[Furniture]

Any updates on reclassification process? I feel like we're all just assuming he will actually play this year...

He's on campus for freshmen move in day!

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/900100738642305025/video/1

[Olympic Fan]

As I posted earlier, dean knew...

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/02/dean_smith_obit_the_legendary_university_of_north_ carolina_basketball_coach.html

"...Smith boasted to reporters that Reid and Scott Williams, another black UNC player, had higher combined SAT scores than two white Duke stars, Danny Ferry and Christian Laettner..."

:o

Just to make it clear, this was a situation were Dean proved what a sneaky ***hole he was.

He was mad at a sign at Cameron that said "JR Can't Reid." Never mind that was not nearly the first time that sign appeared at a UNC game. But coming at Duke, it got Dean's goat.

That's when he came up with the famous claim that Scott Williams and JR Reid has higher combined SAT than Denny Ferry and Christian Laettner.

It was a very clever smear of the two Duke stars.

Technically, Dean was accurate ... but he phrased it in a way that was a distortion of the original premise. The fact is that Reid qualified with the bare minimum SAT score. The fact is that Scott Williams had a VERY high SAT score. Ferry and Laettner had more modest SAT scores. In fact, if you rank the four players Dean cited by SAT scores you'd get:

1. Scott Williams
2. Danny Ferry
3. Christian Laettner
4. J.R. Reid

So did lumping Reid with academically gifted Williams disprove the slurs on Reid's academic accomplishments? Was smearing two Duke players justified by a generic sign that was displayed in almost every road arena that Reid played in?

Of course, knowing what we now know of UNC's shameful history of twisting academics to help athletes, I think the original question is back in order:

Can JR Reid?

PS Dean had more reason to be upset with the Crazies in 1996, when a Duke fan held up a sign for Jeff McInnis: "Jeff, have you driven a Ford lately?"

To me, that one was over the line.

[devildeac]

Just to make it clear, this was a situation were Dean proved what a sneaky ***hole he was.

He was mad at a sign at Cameron that said "JR Can't Reid." Never mind that was not nearly the first time that sign appeared at a UNC game. But coming at Duke, it got Dean's goat.

That's when he came up with the famous claim that Scott Williams and JR Reid has higher combined SAT than Denny Ferry and Christian Laettner.

It was a very clever smear of the two Duke stars.

Technically, Dean was accurate ... but he phrased it in a way that was a distortion of the original premise. The fact is that Reid qualified with the bare minimum SAT score. The fact is that Scott Williams had a VERY high SAT score. Ferry and Laettner had more modest SAT scores. In fact, if you rank the four players Dean cited by SAT scores you'd get:

1. Scott Williams
2. Danny Ferry
3. Christian Laettner
4. J.R. Reid

So did lumping Reid with academically gifted Williams disprove the slurs on Reid's academic accomplishments? Was smearing two Duke players justified by a generic sign that was displayed in almost every road arena that Reid played in?

Of course, knowing what we now know of UNC's shameful history of twisting academics to help athletes, I think the original question is back in order:

Can JR Reid?

PS Dean had more reason to be upset with the Crazies in 1996, when a Duke fan held up a sign for Jeff McInnis: "Jeff, have you driven a Ford lately?"

To me, that one was over the line.

Thanks for the additional info. I knew some of the facts already but it's always good to know more.

Over the line? I dunno. (almost) Anything that besmirsches those vermin is good in my book.;)

[COYS]

Not true. Bagley completed three years of HS. The attached article is from the end of 7th grade in 2013, meaning he would be finishing 12th grade in 2018. So he only did 3 years of HS. I know somewhere there is something about him having a 4.0 but I think that is from 8th or 9th grade. And he attended several different high schools.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/recruiting/2013/07/03/14-year-old-phenom-marvin-bagley-iii-loaded-with-scholarship-offers/2478521/

I will leave it at that. I don't feel super comfortable discussing the details of a specific student-athlete's academic profile. Not to revisit a really old conversation, but I also think that Duke should keep the "student" in "student-athlete," regardless of what the current rules permit and what other schools are doing. I think exceptions can and should be made because athletes have a special talent, but they are hopefully all within a few standard deviations of the rest of the student body. I am not privy to the application file of any athlete so I will hope that admissions is not being completely railroaded for the good of the basketball or football team. During my time at Duke there were a number of athletes who were clearly a notch below academically but few that were clear negative outliers.

Many kids who are held back for athletic reasons are held back before high school. I never said he completed four years of High school. I merely pointed out that he is the right age to graduate this year, which is true (he turned 18 in March), and just because he was nominally a junior does not mean he was academically a junior. A bright student can easily complete coursework that would count toward high school graduation requirements while still in 8th (or even 7th) grade (as I'm sure many Duke alumni are aware).

It's entirely possible that the fact that he is able to reclassify is actually a result of his academic ability rather than a sign that admissions is lowering its standards.

[JGB]

C'mon, don't be naïve ... how many athletes enter with the academic profile of a normal Duke student? Duke is not alone in this matter -- EVERY major college and university (including most of the Ivy League) makes exceptions for athletes.

Out of 12 scholarship basketball players and 80-plus football players, I doubt that 25 would qualify as non-athletes.

Of course, Bagley's acceptance was out of the norm -- but no more out of the norm than Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor or Trevon Duval. Now, Wendell Carter may very well have gotten into Duke with his grades, but he's the exception -- not Mr. Bagley.

As the parent of a Duke (olympic sport) athlete, I can share with you that the process for athletic admissions is very different than the "normal" Duke student. After you are recruited, you first send your application materials to an assigned admissions person in a special colored envelope (which identifies athletes) along with your transcript and SAT scores. You are evaluated and then you are given a verbal "You're in." You receive a letter BEFORE early admission saying you are formally admitted and then you also receive an early admission letter along with all the rest of the "normal" early admits.

There used to be a document on the internet that described the process (which is different for each sport). The revenue sports (BBall and Football) admission procedures are markedly different than the olympic sports. Our experience was from approximately 10 years ago. The process is likely somewhat different today.

[budwom]

A few years ago there was a good article in the NY Times about athletics admissions at the very top academic small schools which don't give athletic scholarships per se....e.g. Williams, Amherts, Middlebury, Trinity, Wesleyan et al.
Approximately 50% of the kids admitted overall get special admissions credit for their athletic ability...the athletic programs at those schools are very competitive...

[sagegrouse]

A few years ago there was a good article in the NY Times about athletics admissions at the very top academic small schools which don't give athletic scholarships per se...e.g. Williams, Amherts, Middlebury, Trinity, Wesleyan et al.
Approximately 50% of the kids admitted overall get special admissions credit for their athletic ability...the athletic programs at those schools are very competitive...

I had a friend whose very large son was a very good student. He went for a visit to Trinity College in Connecticut and spoke with the football coach. The coach urged him to take the SAT again in hopes of a higher score (his weren't bad, but there was room for improvement). The coach said, "I get three exceptions a year, and I am not wasting one on no darned tackle!"

[LasVegas]

I apologize if this has been posted (the thread got a little crazy with SAT scores and I didn't keep up with it). But here is video of Bagley at the drew league. I think his shot really looks promising. Not saying he will shoot 40% from three but he might be able to shoot good enough to keep defenses honest.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zSP1p96_tmU

[COYS]

I apologize if this has been posted (the thread got a little crazy with SAT scores and I didn't keep up with it). But here is video of Bagley at the drew league. I think his shot really looks promising. Not saying he will shoot 40% from three but he might be able to shoot good enough to keep defenses honest.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zSP1p96_tmU

With all the caveats that this is just a highlight reel, his shot really does look promising. Also, I know other posters have mentioned it already, but his jump hook from the right block looks so ridiculously smooth. He gets so much lift on his jump that it ends up being somewhere between a hook shot and a little floater. Our offense is going to look different, but with Wendell set up on either the opposite block or possibly at the elbow, defenses are going to have to make some hard choices. Do they defend Marvin 1v1 in the post and stay home on Wendell or do they double and leave our other lottery-bound post player wide open? I'm looking forward to seeing how K and the staff structure the offense to take advantage of the insane talent we have on the inside.

[MrPoon]

Still so excited to watch this team play. The offense has a chance to be really special. As they get to know each other, there are going to be spots that guys like Carter and Bags get to where they'll be nearly unstoppable. A healthy GA and Duval are great dribble penetrators and I think we'll see a lot of the drive to the rim only to lay it off for a dunk play. Also the three hard dribbles past your man, pull the 4 or 5 to you and float a pass for a dunk, will be there often.

GA is an accomplished mid to long range shooter but Duval isn't. I wonder if the paint risks being a bit crowded with three five star big men in the rotation and two very good drivers. However, if someone can hit the shot, the outside shooters will have a lot of open looks.

I'd be curious if anyone on the board has an example of a successful two big man offense, not in Duke's history but any, that would be a good parallel. I don't follow the Pellican much but that seems to possibly be one. Just wonder what tape the coaches might lean on to show these guys the movement and spacing they are looking for.

Still wondering about the D...

[jimsumner]

Still so excited to watch this team play. The offense has a chance to be really special. As they get to know each other, there are going to be spots that guys like Carter and Bags get to where they'll be nearly unstoppable. A healthy GA and Duval are great dribble penetrators and I think we'll see a lot of the drive to the rim only to lay it off for a dunk play. Also the three hard dribbles past your man, pull the 4 or 5 to you and float a pass for a dunk, will be there often.

GA is an accomplished mid to long range shooter but Duval isn't. I wonder if the paint risks being a bit crowded with three five star big men in the rotation and two very good drivers. However, if someone can hit the shot, the outside shooters will have a lot of open looks.

I'd be curious if anyone on the board has an example of a successful two big man offense, not in Duke's history but any, that would be a good parallel. I don't follow the Pellican much but that seems to possibly be one. Just wonder what tape the coaches might lean on to show these guys the movement and spacing they are looking for.

Still wondering about the D...

Let me give you a Duke example.

1990.

Alaa Abdelnaby, 15.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 62.0% fg
Christian Laettner, 16.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 51.1% fg.

And, for the record, CL made six 3-pointers that season.

Which is six more than AA made.

[Kedsy]

I'd be curious if anyone on the board has an example of a successful two big man offense, not in Duke's history but any, that would be a good parallel.

Or, an anti-Duke example: UNC, pretty much every year, but let's just say last year: top three guys in the big-man rotation (Meeks, Hicks, Bradley) combined for zero (0) three-point attempts. Pomeroy ranked their offense as #9 in the country.

[mr. synellinden]

How about the 1980s Celtics with Parish and McHale? Kareem and Worthy? Duncan and Robinson?

College? 2006/7 Florida with Horford and Noah?

[CDu]

I'd be curious if anyone on the board has an example of a successful two big man offense, not in Duke's history but any, that would be a good parallel. I don't follow the Pellican much but that seems to possibly be one. Just wonder what tape the coaches might lean on to show these guys the movement and spacing they are looking for.

Still wondering about the D...

UNC pretty much any year.

Kentucky in 2015.

Kansas most years.

Florida in 2006 and 2007.

UConn in the Calhoun era.

Duke in 2010.