CNNSI Duke article

[Dukerati]

I didn't see a link up on the board about this article so I thought I would post it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/luke_winn/10/18/duke/index.html

I'm starting to get very excited.....

[Patrick Yates]

Even though this write up benefits from the author having seen Duke up close and personal, he doesn't really add anything that this board has not universally agreed upon.

We will be strong on the perimeter, and weaker underneath. Singler is our best player. We can shoot well. We can be deep. Pocius might ride the pine (although I do question whether Singler and Smith are better athletes than Pocius, if so, then we will be a very dark horse come March).

Really, the only part that I think is notable is that there was no mention, none whatsoever, of Zoubek. I find this troubling, as one would think that any improvement would be a big talking point for a team starved for size.

All in all, Winn didn't break new ground, at all. He puts us in the 15-18 range, on the low end of the national consensus (12-18, with Bilas being an outlier). Ho Hum write up, obviously geared towards the hoops world in general, because Duke fans knew all this by late June.

Patrick Yates

[mgtr]

This is a great article. Everybody should like it except the Marty fans. Sort of short shrift -- but maybe that will exercise him.

[mr. synellinden]

If Henderson is our 6th man, we are going to be much better than people think.

[kramerbr]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Singler guard Ohio State 7' freshman Kosta Koufos in an all-star game last year? And from what I remember he held is ground pretty well. Even though people are talking about his offensive ability both inside and out, I think he can add some additional toughness down low and will become one of our best interior defenders.

[arnie]

Singler will not be able to defend the post nearly as well as McRoberts did - his body isn't ready for that yet. I see post defense as our biggest flaw; something we will have to adjust for in our defense. Despite all the crap McRoberts has received, he was a very good shot blocker and could generally stay in games. Hopefully, Zoubek can provide valuable minutes in the post - we need him to!

[bdh21]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Singler guard Ohio State 7' freshman Kosta Koufos in an all-star game last year? And from what I remember he held is ground pretty well. Even though people are talking about his offensive ability both inside and out, I think he can add some additional toughness down low and will become one of our best interior defenders.

He was able to guard Koufos very well, but Koufos is very much a perimeter oriented 7 footer. It is still open to question whether Singler could hold his own on defense against powerful post men.

[Atldukie79]

Assuming a rehabilitated Zoubek and McClure, I actually question our post offense more than post defense. As noted on these boards, Zoubek shadowed Hansb fairly well one on one. (admittedly he did not hedge well enough). Recalling John Smith in the 80's or Chris Carrawell defending Duncan might be a fair comparison of what McClure could do defensively in the post. Singler has done well in that role at the high school all star level. Thomas is agile, quick and active, if rather easily backed down and muscled.

Other than Singler's offense (though I have precious little first hand viewing experience, I expect it to be more facing the basket) we will have a challenge posting up and demanding a double team.

Here's to pulling the other team's post away from the basket!

[Carlos]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Singler guard Ohio State 7' freshman Kosta Koufos in an all-star game last year? And from what I remember he held is ground pretty well. Even though people are talking about his offensive ability both inside and out, I think he can add some additional toughness down low and will become one of our best interior defenders.

It was the Jordan Brand game but there are two things that should weigh into the equation here:

1. All Star games are notorious for not having any set offense which hurts the inside players. The focus on getting the ball to the post just isn't there.

2. Koufos may be 7' but he's also a guy who likes to drift out to the perimeter.

[Ignatius07]

If Henderson is our 6th man, we are going to be much better than people think.

That is one way of looking at it, although it assumes that Henderson has made/is making the "jump" that many are expecting. Count me as one of those who believes G-Money will emerge as an all-ACC type player this season, but I think it is emphatically bad for this team is he is coming off the bench. What that would mean is despite his other-wordly (for the college game anyway) athleticism and promising skillset, other players on the team are still impressing more than he is. I think Jon Scheyer is and will be a vital part of the Duke basketball team the next 3 years, but he does not have NBA written all over him like Gerald does. I'd much rather see Scheyer coming off the bench as one of the best 6th men in the ACC than Hendo.

That said, it would be possible for Henderson to have improved a lot while still coming off the bench if other players like Nelson, Scheyer, and Lance all made vast improvements as well and simply remain ahead of Gerald. I just think it's unlikely to be a good sign for the team is Henderson is still not one of the five best players (and thus starters).

[johnb]

If Singler turn out to be our best player, then we'll have a good year.

[OldPhiKap]

That is one way of looking at it, although it assumes that Henderson has made/is making the "jump" that many are expecting. Count me as one of those who believes G-Money will emerge as an all-ACC type player this season, but I think it is emphatically bad for this team is he is coming off the bench. What that would mean is despite his other-wordly (for the college game anyway) athleticism and promising skillset, other players on the team are still impressing more than he is. I think Jon Scheyer is and will be a vital part of the Duke basketball team the next 3 years, but he does not have NBA written all over him like Gerald does. I'd much rather see Scheyer coming off the bench as one of the best 6th men in the ACC than Hendo.

That said, it would be possible for Henderson to have improved a lot while still coming off the bench if other players like Nelson, Scheyer, and Lance all made vast improvements as well and simply remain ahead of Gerald. I just think it's unlikely to be a good sign for the team is Henderson is still not one of the five best players (and thus starters).


David Henderson filled that role on the '86 team to perfection. There's nothing wrong with bringing a high-energy, well-rounded player off the bench to stir things up. Especially since they end with about the same number of minutes.

Having said that, I would see Lance filling that role on this team. The energy level ramps up when he gets on the floor. Maybe they will be the first two subs in, for front court and wing.

Re: Scheyer v. G.Henderson -- I'm fine either way. Scheyer has the cahones to step up and take the big shot, which was lacking in McBob (for instance). They both bring different skill sets and match-up issues, so it may be a matter of what the other team has.

[mr. synellinden]

That is one way of looking at it, although it assumes that Henderson has made/is making the "jump" that many are expecting. Count me as one of those who believes G-Money will emerge as an all-ACC type player this season, but I think it is emphatically bad for this team is he is coming off the bench. What that would mean is despite his other-wordly (for the college game anyway) athleticism and promising skillset, other players on the team are still impressing more than he is. I think Jon Scheyer is and will be a vital part of the Duke basketball team the next 3 years, but he does not have NBA written all over him like Gerald does. I'd much rather see Scheyer coming off the bench as one of the best 6th men in the ACC than Hendo.

That said, it would be possible for Henderson to have improved a lot while still coming off the bench if other players like Nelson, Scheyer, and Lance all made vast improvements as well and simply remain ahead of Gerald. I just think it's unlikely to be a good sign for the team is Henderson is still not one of the five best players (and thus starters).

I think my point is that if the coaches feel that Scheyer is a better player than Henderson - by that I mean simply he contributes to our ability to win more offensively and defensively - then we are going to be extremely deep and talented BECAUSE I do think that Henderson is making the leap this year to All-ACC level. Also, I believe Singler has "special" potential in a Grant Hill kind of way. Regardless of whether Henderson starts or not, I am very optimistic about this season.

[Rich]

As K has said many times, it's not who starts the game, but who finishes it that counts.

[Dukerati]

As K has said many times, it's not who starts the game, but who finishes it that counts.

Good point Rich. I am not bothered at all by the prospect of Henderson coming off the bench because the reality is, he's going to play this season and play a lot. Why does it matter if Henderson starts or sits? Coach K talked about having six starters last season. It looks like we'll have six again this season.

[Ignatius07]

Why does it matter if Henderson starts or sits?

It matters because Coach K has said many times that the five best players on the team will start, regardless of position. I think it is not a good sign for this team if Henderson is not one of its five best players, given his unbelievable potential. Do you disagree?

[Classof06]

It matters because Coach K has said many times that the five best players on the team will start, regardless of position. I think it is not a good sign for this team if Henderson is not one of its five best players, given his unbelievable potential. Do you disagree?


I agree. I knew this issue would come to the forefront eventually. I think there is a very real chance that Gerald Henderson doesn't start this year. I don't agree with that move, but I haven't won 3 national titles.

Either way, it's really not as crucial as people are making it out to be, but I personally think Gerald would bring more to the table as a starter and think Scheyer would be perfect coming off of the bench. That being said, I find it hard to believe Scheyer won't start.

[JasonEvans]

It matters because Coach K has said many times that the five best players on the team will start, regardless of position. I think it is not a good sign for this team if Henderson is not one of its five best players, given his unbelievable potential. Do you disagree?

Wait, you think Henderson has incredible potential but you think it is a bad sign if he is not one of the 5 best players on the team?!?! Someone explain that logic to me. I figure that if a kid who can be as amazing as Henderson is not one of our 5 best then the guys who are among the 5 best are gonna be really great!!

I also think that K does not always start our 5 best. There have been numerous examples of special 6th men who played as much if not more than other starters. It is practically a tradition on deep basketball teams to do this. If this is the role K chooses for Henderson, I do not see it as some negative sign about Henderson or the team.

--Jason "then again, unlike many here, I tend to be optimistic regarding Duke ;) " Evans

[ice-9]

I remember when reading the article, I felt similarly bothered by the statement of GH being 6th man of the year. This thread is making me ask why and I *think* the internal logic goes something like this...

- GH has far more potential to be a superstar than JS. JS can score as a spot up shooter, but he's not the kind of player that can take over a game and may never well be whereas GH has that potential

- If JS starts over GH, thereby signaling JS is better than GH, that means GH is not fulfilling his potential

- If GH starts over JS, that means GH is well on his way to becoming a stud which is what we need/want

Because JS is a known quantity who will improve but only incrementally, the hope is that GH can make the big jump from last year to be more valuable than JS.

[Indoor66]

I remember when reading the article, I felt similarly bothered by the statement of GH being 6th man of the year. This thread is making me ask why and I *think* the internal logic goes something like this...

- GH has far more potential to be a superstar than JS. JS can score as a spot up shooter, but he's not the kind of player that can take over a game and may never well be whereas GH has that potential

- If JS starts over GH, thereby signaling JS is better than GH, that means GH is not fulfilling his potential

- If GH starts over JS, that means GH is well on his way to becoming a stud which is what we need/want

Because JS is a known quantity who will improve but only incrementally, the hope is that GH can make the big jump from last year to be more valuable than JS.

That strikes me as rather circular.

[OldPhiKap]

They both bring different skill sets, and there is room for both. Sometimes on the floor together. I would think that they may end up with similar minutes, regardless of who starts each half and who finishes each half.

I just don't see this as a real issue. We are going to be shuffling back court players in and out in all kinds of odd fashion this year. Everyone has been clamoring for K to play more than 7 players -- this is what happens.

[JasonEvans]

Because JS is a known quantity who will improve but only incrementally, the hope is that GH can make the big jump from last year to be more valuable than JS.

Ummm, why do you think Scheyer will only improve incrementally?

Just so you know, there are NBA scouts who think Scheyer has a great deal of NBA potential. He's got the size, ballhandling, quickness, and shot to be an NBA 2-guard. That combination is not as common as you might think (as evidenced by NBA teams asking Allan Houston and Reggie Miller to get out of their rocking chairs and try to come back to the league this year).

--Jason "and, I say again, Henderson can be the most explosive offensive player on the team and still be the 6th man-- I've got no problem with that" Evans

[mapei]

I'm not saying anything terribly revealing here, but the "problem" is that Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson/Marty/Nolan all play the same position. It's a given that Nelson will start, and Paulus will be the starting PG, so that leaves four pretty good players competing with each other.

I think the starter is likely to be Scheyer, because K is loyal and trusts him. But I think all three of the others might have more upside (I know Marty is arguable, but that's my take), with Gerald likely having the most. I think he will get tons of minutes, probably subbing for Nelson as much as for Scheyer.

[CDu]

I'm not saying anything terribly revealing here, but the "problem" is that Nelson/Scheyer/Henderson/Marty/Nolan all play the same position. It's a given that Nelson will start, and Paulus will be the starting PG, so that leaves four pretty good players competing with each other.

I think the starter is likely to be Scheyer, because K is loyal and trusts him. But I think all three of the others might have more upside (I know Marty is arguable, but that's my take), with Gerald likely having the most. I think he will get tons of minutes, probably subbing for Nelson as much as for Scheyer.

You seem to be limiting these guys to just one position. In reality, though, these 5 guys will play 2+ positions. At the very least, 2 of the 5 will be starters and the others will sub for them. But remember also that Smith will get some minutes at PG and Henderson will likely get some minutes as the "big" forward (or 4, or PF, or smaller post defender, whatever you prefer). And when you consider that Pocius may very well get squeezed out again, we'll have essentially 4 guys playing about 90 minutes. That's not really a minutes problem at all as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not terribly concerned about there being too many guys in the backcourt. I think we have at most one too many guys there this year. The bigger areas of interest in my eyes will be how well we match up at the 4 and 5 spot defensively and how much improvement Paulus has with regard to his point guard play.

[mapei]

You seem to be limiting these guys to just one position. In reality, though, these 5 guys will play 2+ positions. . . . The bigger areas of interest in my eyes will be how well we match up at the 4 and 5 spot defensively and how much improvement Paulus has with regard to his point guard play.

Actually, I agree on both counts. They will definitely play multiple positions, in part because they can and in larger part because Duke needs them to. But each is probably best suited to the 2. In one quibble, GH strikes me as a real liability at the 4.

Post defense and point guard are definitely Duke's biggest question marks this year. We're very strong on the wings.

[CDu]

Actually, I agree on both counts. They will definitely play multiple positions, in part because they can and in larger part because Duke needs them to. But each is probably best suited to the 2. In one quibble, GH strikes me as a real liability at the 4.

Post defense and point guard are definitely Duke's biggest question marks this year. We're very strong on the wings.

The only disagreement I have (and this is largely because I didn't do a good job of specifying my point originally) is that these guys aren't best suited for just one position. They are best suited for one role (wing), but that role actually spans two positions. In college, there is barely any distinction between the 2 and the 3 positions. With what little distinction can be made, I'd argue that Nelson and Henderson are actually more suited to play against bigger wings (which would be the 3 in college). Smith, Scheyer, and Pocius are more suited to play smaller wings (the 2). Thus, I'd say there isn't really that much of a logjam. We have 2 bigger wings and 3 smaller wings (one of whom will play some point guard). So just one guy is likely to get really squeezed.

As for Henderson being a liability at the 4 spot, I agree. But there will be times when he does it. This is again because teams frequently play smallish forwards at the 4 spot. These are the times I suspect we'll see Henderson get minutes at the 4. Against smaller forwards or less talented forwards, I think Henderson will be fine and actually be more of a matchup problem the other way. But again, I don't think this will be more than a few minutes per game. I think Thomas, Singler, Zoubek, and King will get the lion's sure (75+ minutes) at the 4 and 5 spots.

[ice-9]

Indor66 -- If he fulfills his potential, he'll start. If he doesn't, he won't. The input is his improvement, the output is whether he starts. Not circular.

Jason -- I'd love to be proven wrong, but if JS is to become an NBA caliber player (i.e. one that will allow him to play many years in the league) he'll have to significantly quicken his shot release. I just have too many images of him in the second half of last year's season passing up a shot because he couldn't get it off in time, and defenses will be faster, taller, and stronger in the NBA than they are at the college level.

[trinity92]

Nothing against GH, but Scheyer has shown he can do it in the ACC. He came right in and started playing his game, while GH took most of the season to get in a groove. Granted, GH is a super athlete, and I like his game a lot, but there was plenty of opportunity for GH to become a starter last year, probably more for a freshman than any year in the last 20, so I'm not sure what potential you saw that I didn't. In fact, given his 21 point in a minute and change performance in high school, I'd say Scheyer has shown more potential than GH, and even right now, Scheyer has a more complete game than JJ at this point of his career-- just doesn't have the ooh-ahh factor GH does.

I have no problem starting GH, but I wouldn't do it in place of JS-- would prefer to have DN be our super 6th man than JS, but I don't see that happening.

[mgtr]

I couldn't agree more -- some posters argue that Henderson will improve a lot over his freshman year, but so will Scheyer. I am very anxious to see how this team comes together -- they may be terrific.