FB: Eight Blue Devils Named Preseason All-ACC by Athlon

[Bob Green]

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22672&SPID=1843&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211605900&DB_OEM_ID=4200

C Austin Davis - 2nd Team
RB Shaun Wilson - 3rd Team Kick Returner/4th Team RB
LB Ben Humphreys - 3rd Team
QB Daniel Jones - 4th Team
WR T.J. Rahming - 4th Team
CB Bryon Fields - 4th Team
LB Joe Giles-Harris - 4th Team
OT Gabe Brandner - 4th Team

[mattman91]

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22672&SPID=1843&DB_LANG=C&ATCLID=211605900&DB_OEM_ID=4200

C Austin Davis - 2nd Team
RB Shaun Wilson - 3rd Team Kick Returner/4th Team RB
LB Ben Humphreys - 3rd Team
QB Daniel Jones - 4th Team
WR T.J. Rahming - 4th Team
CB Bryon Fields - 4th Team
LB Joe Giles-Harris - 4th Team
OT Gabe Brandner - 4th Team

So does this mean they think Jones is the 4th best QB in the ACC?

Nice.

[Bob Green]

So does this mean they think Jones is the 4th best QB in the ACC?

Nice.

That's what it means:

1. Lamar Jackson - Louisville
2. Deondre Francois - FSU
3. Eric Dungey - Syracuse
4. Daniel Jones - Duke

[Olympic Fan]

So does this mean they think Jones is the 4th best QB in the ACC?

Nice.

I guess they have him behind Lamar Jackson, Eric Dunguy and Deondre Francis.

Jones actually finished ahead of Francis last year in total offense, when both were freshmen.

The real eye-raiser is the rating of Ben Humphreys as a third-team LB.

He was the top vote getter at LB by the coaches on the 2016 All-ACC third team -- seventh overall at LB. And four of the six guys voted ahead of him have graduated.

Humphries should be FIRST team preseason All-ACC, not third.

[Bob Green]

I like the balance with our offensive selections: two linemen, quarterback, running back, wide receiver. The offense needs to score more points in 2017.

Points per Game:

2016: 23.3
2015: 31.5
2014: 32.4
2013: 32.8
2012: 31.5

Twenty three point three points per game is a significant drop off compared to the previous four seasons. The offense needs to be back over 30 ppg in 2017.

[OldPhiKap]

Humphries should be FIRST team preseason All-ACC, not third.

"Motivation"

[Olympic Fan]

I like the balance with our offensive selections: two linemen, quarterback, running back, wide receiver. The offense needs to score more points in 2017.

Points per Game:

2016: 23.3
2015: 31.5
2014: 32.4
2013: 32.8
2012: 31.5

Twenty three point three points per game is a significant drop off compared to the previous four seasons. The offense needs to be back over 30 ppg in 2017.

Agreed ... and the dropoff between 2015 and 2016 should remind us of how effective the consistently underrated Thomas Sirk was (even more so. since the 2015 Devils averaged over 33 points in the 12 games he started).

Jones had a steep learning curve last season, but I think he's at the point where he can be as effective as Sirk was in '15.

[Bob Green]

Jones had a steep learning curve last season, but I think he's at the point where he can be as effective as Sirk was in '15.

Daniel Jones' ceiling is very, very high. It is going to be exciting watching him develop and excel over the next three seasons.

[budwom]

Agreed ... and the dropoff between 2015 and 2016 should remind us of how effective the consistently underrated Thomas Sirk was (even more so. since the 2015 Devils averaged over 33 points in the 12 games he started).

Jones had a steep learning curve last season, but I think he's at the point where he can be as effective as Sirk was in '15.

I'm too lazy to look up the stats now, but my recollection is that our yards per rush last year took a very big drop from the previous season. Hopefully with more experience on the OL, the presence of Mr. Lisle, and the presence of some good redshirt frosh RBs will turn that around. Edit: OK, I looked it up....our average yards per rush dropped from 4.8 to 3.9 last year. That (not Jones vs Sirk) is the major problem.
In 2015 Sirk ran for 803 yards, passed for 2625.
In 2016 Jones ran for 683 and passed for 2836.
So no, I don't think "underrated" Sirk was the biggest problem (though Jones certainly struggled early in the season at times, e.g. vs UVA).

[OldPhiKap]

Daniel Jones' ceiling is very, very high. It is going to be exciting watching him develop and excel over the next three seasons.

This.

The Future is now.

[devildeac]

This.

The Future is now.

Does that mean Tomorrow is Today?;)

[OldPhiKap]

Does that mean Tomorrow is Today?;)

I am the future that you've always wanted.

Let's go DUKE!!!!!!

(Look forward to hopefully seeing you and others @ the FSU game! FatherPK is a Seminole so will have a friendly member of the opposition fan base with me. MotherPK is conflicted).

[devildeac]

I am the future that you've always wanted.

Let's go DUKE!!!!!!

(Look forward to hopefully seeing you and others @ the FSU game! FatherPK is a Seminole so will have a friendly member of the opposition fan base with me. MotherPK is conflicted).

We'll have a spot or three at the tent for the OPK family, old, middle-aged and young.

Words of advice to FatherPK: Bring good beer. ;)

[OldPhiKap]

We'll have a spot or three at the tent for the OPK family, old, middle-aged and young.

Words of advice to FatherPK: Bring good beer. ;)

FatherPK is not a craft beer guy. OPK, of course, is. So if I show up with a growler of the current "Enjoy By" Stone IPA and a six-pack of Miller Lite, no angry comments please! MomPK prefers wine.

KidPKs better be drinking soda.

Oh, and like in South Bend, I'll be wearing my "Eat Me" cake costume. It worked last time . . . . (And nice to meet your better half there, hope she attends with you!)

[devildeac]

FatherPK is not a craft beer guy. OPK, of course, is. So if I show up with a growler of the current "Enjoy By" Stone IPA and a six-pack of Miller Lite, no angry comments please! MomPK prefers wine.

KidPKs better be drinking soda.

Oh, and like in South Bend, I'll be wearing my "Eat Me" cake costume. It worked last time . . . . (And nice to meet your better half there, hope she attends with you!)

All systems good as above. I can't think of the last time I attended a tailgate without my better than better half.

[OldPhiKap]

All systems good as above. I can't think of the last time I attended a tailgate without my better than better half.

Don't think I had a chance to meet her the last tailgate I made (v. Wake, last game before WW renovations) but could be wrong. My last home game was the last game in "old Wally Wade" so look forward to seeing the renovated stadium!!!!

Are the seats wide enough for my "Eat Me" cake costume?

Should mention that Raleigh B-I-LPK and NephewPK will also be there, shout out for true Blue Devil fans! (Hopefully DukeNeicePK and RaleighSisPK too, although I think their schedules are a bit hazier).

Would love CaliPKs to come but that's a big ask.

[budwom]

Don't think I had a chance to meet her the last tailgate I made (v. Wake, last game before WW renovations) but could be wrong. My last home game was the last game in "old Wally Wade" so look forward to seeing the renovated stadium!!!!

Are the seats wide enough for my "Eat Me" cake costume?

Should mention that Raleigh B-I-LPK and NephewPK will also be there, shout out for true Blue Devil fans! (Hopefully DukeNeicePK and RaleighSisPK too, although I think their schedules are a bit hazier).

Would love CaliPKs to come but that's a big ask.

here's a tip for your posterior: the new blue seats on the West (Duke, "Tower") side are several inches wider than the ones on the Saharan East side.

[devildeac]

Don't think I had a chance to meet her the last tailgate I made (v. Wake, last game before WW renovations) but could be wrong. My last home game was the last game in "old Wally Wade" so look forward to seeing the renovated stadium!!!!

Are the seats wide enough for my "Eat Me" cake costume?

Should mention that Raleigh B-I-LPK and NephewPK will also be there, shout out for true Blue Devil fans! (Hopefully DukeNeicePK and RaleighSisPK too, although I think their schedules are a bit hazier).

Would love CaliPKs to come but that's a big ask.

The last tailgate you were at was reeaal crowded, IIRC, so you may not have had the pleasure.

We'll reserve a row for your generous posterior, err, fancy costume, and another row for all the PKs attending. Might have to be on the concourse as I'd guess it'll be crowded that day. :rolleyes:

[devildeac]

here's a tip for your posterior: the new blue seats on the West (Duke, "Tower") side are several inches wider than the ones on the Saharan East side.

You're talking inches only...

We're talking OPK:rolleyes:. Though to be very, very fair, he has posted that with varying degrees of dietary and/or exercise activities, he is a shadow of his former self. ;)

[budwom]

You're talking inches only...

We're talking OPK:rolleyes:. Though to be very, very fair, he has posted that with varying degrees of dietary and/or exercise activities, he is a shadow of his former self. ;)

He can always be wedged into his seat for the duration of the game, and pried out afterwards. Try not to bloat him up too much with beer pre-game.

[Bob Green]

We can seat OPK between devildeac and my grandson who each take up only half a seat. :D

[OldPhiKap]

I'll fit in any seat. A back to the chair is where I'm at these days.

[CDu]

I'm too lazy to look up the stats now, but my recollection is that our yards per rush last year took a very big drop from the previous season. Hopefully with more experience on the OL, the presence of Mr. Lisle, and the presence of some good redshirt frosh RBs will turn that around. Edit: OK, I looked it up...our average yards per rush dropped from 4.8 to 3.9 last year. That (not Jones vs Sirk) is the major problem.
In 2015 Sirk ran for 803 yards, passed for 2625.
In 2016 Jones ran for 683 and passed for 2836.
So no, I don't think "underrated" Sirk was the biggest problem (though Jones certainly struggled early in the season at times, e.g. vs UVA).

Yeah, the fact that an unheralded freshman matched Sirk statistically kind of opposes the idea that Sirk was the critical missing piece. And it isn't like Sirk was the only difference between 2015 and 2016. We also lost Matt Skura, Lucas Patrick, Shaq Powell, Max McCaffrey, Braxton Deaver, and half a year of Jela Duncan.

And it is important to note the differences in special teams. The 2015 team had 4 return TDs compared to 1 last year (that cuts into the PPG difference by almost 2). And our kicking game went from amazing in 2015 with Martin to abysmal in 2016. Martin hit 26 of 30 FGs, compared with 3 of 10 for Reed. Reed was so bad that we were regularly having to punt or go for fourth and long whereas we would have kicked with Martin.

Take the kicking game and return game away and we see our offense scored 38 TDs in 13 games in 2015. Our offense scored 37 TDs in 12 games in 2016. That is pretty comparable. We averaged 5.5 yards per play with Sirk and the more veteran players around him. We averaged 5.1 yards per play with the redshirt freshman Jones, with a weaker running back group, and with a younger and less proven line. Hardly glaring evidence that Sirk was underrated.

Don't get me wrong: Sirk was a warrior and a terrific runner. But he was a pretty mediocre passing QB. Hence his performance could be basically replicated by a redshirt freshman in his absence.

[Olympic Fan]

It continues to amaze me how Duke fans continue to denigrate Sirk's performance in 2015.

Was he a great passer? No - but he had a better TD/INT ratio than Jones. They threw the same number of TD passes (both playing 12 games). They averaged almost exactly the same yards per completion. Jones lost four fumbles ... Sirk lost one.

Sirk was a significantly better runner, rushing for 803 yards and 4.9 yards carry. Jones had 486 and 3.4 yards carry. Sirk was sacked 12 times in 12 games ... Jones sacked 29 times in 12 games.

How much of that was the offensive line? How much of it was the ability to dodge rushers and a willingness to throw the ball away? I should note that in 2015 -- behind the same line that allowed Sirk to be sacked 12 times in almost 500 pass attempts, Parker Boehme was sacked six times in less than 100 pass attempts.

Maybe there was more to it than the offensive line ...

Duke's rushing attack suffered badly last season, going from 2508 yards (in 13 games) and 4.8 per carry and 1843 yards (in 12 games) and 3.9 per carry.

How much of that was the offensive line? Some, but it's not like we lost to All-American linemen. Matt Skura and Lucas Patrick were good players, but we lost two better players -- All-American Laken Tomlison (a first round NFL draft choice) and three-year starter Tacoby Cofield -- going into the 2015 season -- and with Jones at the controls, our rushing offense went UP. It's possible that guys like Powell and Duncan and Shaun Wilson benefited from sharing the backfield with Sirk, a master of the read option. Jones is a good runner for a QB, but not in a class with Sirk ... or our TBs. Defenses were able to sit on Duncan and Powell in 2016 in a way they couldn't with Sirk at QB.

Look, Jones has more upside. He has the potential to be an NFL quarterback. My only complaint about his performance last year was his slow start -- and that was understandable given his lack of experience.

But in praising Jones, it's not necessary to denigrate Thomas Sirk -- in his 12 games as a starter, Duke averaged more yards per game than any team since team 1989 Steve Spurrier ACC champ and more points per game the any Duke team since 1943. And I would argue that his supporting cast was not nearly as good as the 2014 team (with Tomlinson, Cofield, Jamison Crowder! Josh Snead) or 2015 or 2012. Skura was the only offensive player on the 2015 Blue Devils to make first, second or third team All-ACC.

Thomas Sirk continues to get no respect on this board, but he was arguably the MOST EFFECTIVE quarterback Duke has had in the last quarter century -- if not longer. It's not all about passing. Sirk as not a great passer. Daniel Jones has a chance to be a more effective QB -- but his 2016 season was not as good as Sirk's 2015 performance.

[OldPhiKap]

Look, Jones has more upside. He has the potential to be an NFL quarterback. My only complaint about his performance last year was his slow start -- and that was understandable given his lack of experience.

But in praising Jones, it's not necessary to denigrate Thomas Sirk -- in his 12 games as a starter, Duke averaged more yards per game than any team since team 1989 Steve Spurrier ACC champ and more points per game the any Duke team since 1943.



I think this is spot on.

Jones has a ton of potential, and is a better down-field passer.

Sirk was a great double threat and a true warrior. (The PPG had a LOT to do with special teams so I kind of discount that stat. The YPG, by contrast, was set up by Sirk being a pass and run double-threat QB it seems to me).

Love Sirk, hope he finishes his career in strong fashion wherever he lands. He got us our first bowl win since Kennedy was in office. Having said that, I think that Jones would have been the favorite to win the starting job this upcoming season with Sirk returning more to the "Conette Package" role albeit with much more flexibility. I will also add that our schedule last year was more difficult than the prior so comparing the two seasons is not apples-to-apples, before even considering injuries last season.

Thank you, Thomas Sirk. Let's go, Daniel Jones.

[Bob Green]

But in praising Jones, it's not necessary to denigrate Thomas Sirk --

I agree 100 percent. Sirk was a warrior for Duke and his performance deserves to be celebrated not dismissed.


Duke's rushing attack suffered badly last season, going from 2508 yards (in 13 games) and 4.8 per carry and 1843 yards (in 12 games) and 3.9 per carry.

The running back situation had a lot to do with the rushing attack being less productive. In 2016, there were only two productive running backs in the rotation Shaun Wilson (623 yards) and Jela Duncan (450 yards) with Duncan missing the last five games of the season after his freak injury on the sidelines during the Georgia Tech game. That drops the running back rotation to 1.5 players. In 2015, there were three productive running backs in the rotation: Shaq Powell (557 yards), Jela Duncan (469 yards) and Shaun Wilson (432 yards). Yes, Duncan and Wilson both missed some games during the season but there were always two healthy running backs available in 2015. Not so in 2016. The decline in rushing production was more about available running backs than Sirk versus Jones.

I'm certain the running back rotation will be deeper in 2017. Shaun Wilson will start the season as the featured back with redshirt freshmen Brittain Brown and Elijah Deveaux vying for playing time. There are also three true freshmen who could figure into the mix Deon Jackson, Marvin Hubbard and Joshua Blackwell. I'm waiting for the roster at GoDuke to be updated to see if all three are listed as running backs.


Look, Jones has more upside. He has the potential to be an NFL quarterback. My only complaint about his performance last year was his slow start -- and that was understandable given his lack of experience.

Jones has a lot more upside if he continues to develop in 2017 and beyond like he did in 2016. The Virginia game drags Jones' stats down. He threw five of his nine interceptions in that one game...toss the Virginia game out the window and his season TD/INT ratio changes from 16/9 to 15/4. After the Virginia game, Jones threw 10 touchdowns and only one interception in the season's final seven games. Will that hot finish carry over to a hot start in 2017?

Seeing enthusiastic football discussion on DBR is great! :cool:

[Bob Green]

Love Sirk, hope he finishes his career in strong fashion wherever he lands. He got us our first bowl win since Kennedy was in office.

Sirk landed at East Carolina. Dwight David Eisenhower was in office when Duke won the Cotton Bowl on January 2, 1961.

[Indoor66]

Sirk landed at East Carolina. Dwight David Eisenhower was in office when Duke won the Cotton Bowl on January 2, 1961.

And a damn fine day it was!

[budwom]

It continues to amaze me how Duke fans continue to denigrate Sirk's performance in 2015.

Was he a great passer? No - but he had a better TD/INT ratio than Jones. They threw the same number of TD passes (both playing 12 games). They averaged almost exactly the same yards per completion. Jones lost four fumbles ... Sirk lost one.

Sirk was a significantly better runner, rushing for 803 yards and 4.9 yards carry. Jones had 486 and 3.4 yards carry. Sirk was sacked 12 times in 12 games ... Jones sacked 29 times in 12 games.

How much of that was the offensive line? How much of it was the ability to dodge rushers and a willingness to throw the ball away? I should note that in 2015 -- behind the same line that allowed Sirk to be sacked 12 times in almost 500 pass attempts, Parker Boehme was sacked six times in less than 100 pass attempts.

Maybe there was more to it than the offensive line ...

Duke's rushing attack suffered badly last season, going from 2508 yards (in 13 games) and 4.8 per carry and 1843 yards (in 12 games) and 3.9 per carry.

How much of that was the offensive line? Some, but it's not like we lost to All-American linemen. Matt Skura and Lucas Patrick were good players, but we lost two better players -- All-American Laken Tomlison (a first round NFL draft choice) and three-year starter Tacoby Cofield -- going into the 2015 season -- and with Jones at the controls, our rushing offense went UP. It's possible that guys like Powell and Duncan and Shaun Wilson benefited from sharing the backfield with Sirk, a master of the read option. Jones is a good runner for a QB, but not in a class with Sirk ... or our TBs. Defenses were able to sit on Duncan and Powell in 2016 in a way they couldn't with Sirk at QB.

Look, Jones has more upside. He has the potential to be an NFL quarterback. My only complaint about his performance last year was his slow start -- and that was understandable given his lack of experience.

But in praising Jones, it's not necessary to denigrate Thomas Sirk -- in his 12 games as a starter, Duke averaged more yards per game than any team since team 1989 Steve Spurrier ACC champ and more points per game the any Duke team since 1943. And I would argue that his supporting cast was not nearly as good as the 2014 team (with Tomlinson, Cofield, Jamison Crowder! Josh Snead) or 2015 or 2012. Skura was the only offensive player on the 2015 Blue Devils to make first, second or third team All-ACC.

Thomas Sirk continues to get no respect on this board, but he was arguably the MOST EFFECTIVE quarterback Duke has had in the last quarter century -- if not longer. It's not all about passing. Sirk as not a great passer. Daniel Jones has a chance to be a more effective QB -- but his 2016 season was not as good as Sirk's 2015 performance.

I know this is your specialty, creating a position no one has taken...NO ONE is denigrating Sirk's 2015 performance, no matter how many times you try to assert that. I (and some others) are merely noting that Sirk's absence was not THE major problem you made it out to be. Sirk was a terrific blue devil, great leader, great kid, great runner....and a very middling passer.
You could ask 25 coaches today who they'd rather have THIS years as their starting QB, and I don't think you'd find one that would pick Sirk (as good as he was) over Jones.

[CDu]

I know this is your specialty, creating a position no one has taken...NO ONE is denigrating Sirk's 2015 performance, no matter how many times you try to assert that. I (and some others) are merely noting that Sirk's absence was not THE major problem you made it out to be. Sirk was a terrific blue devil, great leader, great kid, great runner...and a very middling passer.
You could ask 25 coaches today who they'd rather have THIS years as their starting QB, and I don't think you'd find one that would pick Sirk (as good as he was) over Jones.

Exactly. Sirk was a terrific football player and a tough, tough kid. He was a terrific running QB. But he was a below-average passer. That is literally the ONLY negative that I or most others have said about Sirk. Creating the strawman that we are denigrating Sirk is just inappropriate.

But to look at PPG differences to say how awesome Sirk was is misleading and downright inaccurate. The line was worse, the RBs were worse, and the WRs and TEs were worse. The special teams (which represent basically the entire difference in scoring) were MUCH worse. Special teams is the main reason why the team scored fewer points.

Sirk was a terrific football player (as I said in my previous post and pretty much every post on the subject). But his absence was most certainly NOT the reason our team scored six fewer points per game last year. Pointing that out is not denigrating Sirk.

[OldPhiKap]

Sirk landed at East Carolina. Dwight David Eisenhower was in office when Duke won the Cotton Bowl on January 2, 1961.

Check on both points, thanks.

And thank you for your service. Have a blessed Memorial Day!

[Bob Green]

But his absence was most certainly NOT the reason our team scored six fewer points per game last year. Pointing that out is not denigrating Sirk.

31.5 - 23.3 = 8.2.

[devildeac]

31.5 - 23.3 = 8.2.

But, did you adjust for tempo?


:rolleyes:;)

[Indoor66]

31.5 - 23.3 = 8.2.

Cut didn't play the bench enough.

[NSDukeFan]

Cut didn't play the bench enough.

I'm glad I'm not the only one to notice this. Who do you think will transfer?

[OldPhiKap]

Cut didn't play the bench enough.

[future OPK post]My sources tell me that {insert name of one of the freshman QB's} is absolutely unstoppable in scrimmages. [/future OPK post]

Really, though, just glad to start having some discussion of the season ahead. Three months plus a few days to go!!!!

[jimsumner]

[future OPK post]My sources tell me that {insert name of one of the freshman QB's} is absolutely unstoppable in scrimmages. [/future OPK post]

Really, though, just glad to start having some discussion of the season ahead. Three months plus a few days to go!!!!

Nick Horvath plays quarterback?

A note on 1961. New Year's Day that year was on Sunday. So, the big bowl games were played on Monday, the 2nd.

And I had to go back to school that Monday, 5th grade. Even then, I looked forward to the New Year's bowl games and I had to miss a good chunk of them do to a fluke in the calendar.

Boo, hiss.

[budwom]

^ I remember watching that game and trying to figure out if Duke's helmets were the ugliest or the coolest ever....

[Olympic Fan]

I know this is your specialty, creating a position no one has taken...NO ONE is denigrating Sirk's 2015 performance, no matter how many times you try to assert that. I (and some others) are merely noting that Sirk's absence was not THE major problem you made it out to be. Sirk was a terrific blue devil, great leader, great kid, great runner...and a very middling passer.
You could ask 25 coaches today who they'd rather have THIS years as their starting QB, and I don't think you'd find one that would pick Sirk (as good as he was) over Jones.

Fine ... all I want to hear is an acknowledgement that Sirk in 2015 was the most productive quarterback Duke has had in the last quarter century. If you won't admit that, then, yes, you are denigrating Thomas Sirk.

I was responding to CDu's post that insisted that freshman Daniel Jones basically replicated Sirk's season ... which displayed an amazing incomprehension -- and denigration -- of Sirk's performance. For the record, CDU, Jones almost (not quite) replicated Sirk's PASSING performance ... he did NOT replicate his quarterback performance.

Amazing how many posters want to argue that we can't attribute Duke's successful offense in 2015 to Sirk. Like he was a Trent Dilfer, managing a great offense, but just being a small part of it. Face it, the 2015 team had no other exceptional weapons. Not one running back and not one receiver received All-ACC votes. The offensive line had one All-ACC performer (center Matt Skura). And yet that offense was the most productive Duke offense since 1989. SOMEBODY must have been playing at a high level -- Thomas Sirk (who did have the second best total offense season in Duke history).

You are the one with the false position. I DID state that Jones has the potential to be a better quarterback than Sirk. Go back and read my post. But you are wrong that Sirk's absence was not a MAJOR problem last season. We lost games that we should have won to Wake Forest, Virginia and Northwestern -- he had eight interceptions in the first five games (none against NCCU, so eight in the next four games, including the losses to Virginia, Wake and Northwestern). He had costly fumbles that hurt badly against Northwestern and Virginia.

I have no doubt that had Sirk been healthy in 2015 -- even with all our other injuries and our kicking problems -- we win six or seven games and keep our bowl streak alive.

Where would that leave us this year? Sirk would graduate and we'd still have Jones are the prospective starter. He'd have minor experience as a backup in 2016, plus another spring practice to prepare. He would not be quite as raw as he was to start last season, but he still would be no where near as experienced or as confident as he is now.

So while losing Sirk as a major blow in 2015 ... we're better off in 2016 because of it. We don't need to ask those 25 coaches to know that. But I wish we could ask them, because they would unanimously tell you that Duke would have been better off last season with a veteran Sirk at quarterback.

[jimsumner]

Fine ... all I want to hear is an acknowledgement that Sirk in 2015 was the most productive quarterback Duke has had in the last quarter century. If you won't admit that, then, yes, you are denigrating Thomas Sirk.

I was responding to CDu's post that insisted that freshman Daniel Jones basically replicated Sirk's season ... which displayed an amazing incomprehension -- and denigration -- of Sirk's performance. For the record, CDU, Jones almost (not quite) replicated Sirk's PASSING performance ... he did NOT replicate his quarterback performance.

Amazing how many posters want to argue that we can't attribute Duke's successful offense in 2015 to Sirk. Like he was a Trent Dilfer, managing a great offense, but just being a small part of it. Face it, the 2015 team had no other exceptional weapons. Not one running back and not one receiver received All-ACC votes. The offensive line had one All-ACC performer (center Matt Skura). And yet that offense was the most productive Duke offense since 1989. SOMEBODY must have been playing at a high level -- Thomas Sirk (who did have the second best total offense season in Duke history).

You are the one with the false position. I DID state that Jones has the potential to be a better quarterback than Sirk. Go back and read my post. But you are wrong that Sirk's absence was not a MAJOR problem last season. We lost games that we should have won to Wake Forest, Virginia and Northwestern -- he had eight interceptions in the first five games (none against NCCU, so eight in the next four games, including the losses to Virginia, Wake and Northwestern). He had costly fumbles that hurt badly against Northwestern and Virginia.

I have no doubt that had Sirk been healthy in 2015 -- even with all our other injuries and our kicking problems -- we win six or seven games and keep our bowl streak alive.

Where would that leave us this year? Sirk would graduate and we'd still have Jones are the prospective starter. He'd have minor experience as a backup in 2016, plus another spring practice to prepare. He would not be quite as raw as he was to start last season, but he still would be no where near as experienced or as confident as he is now.

So while losing Sirk as a major blow in 2015 ... we're better off in 2016 because of it. We don't need to ask those 25 coaches to know that. But I wish we could ask them, because they would unanimously tell you that Duke would have been better off last season with a veteran Sirk at quarterback.

You might want to update the calendar app on your smart phone. :)

[Olympic Fan]

You might want to update the calendar app on your smart phone. :)

Yes, I confused 2015, 2016 and 2017 a couple of times there ...

My point, just to be clear:

2015: Sirk had the most productive year of any Duke quarterback in a quarter century -- at least.

2016: Jones had some growing pains, but ended up showing his great potential. We would have been better off in 2016 with a healthy Sirk.

2017: We are better off with an experienced Jones than we would have been if Sirk had been the starter last year and we had gotten only backup minutes from Jones. The thing I want to see is whether an experienced Jones in 2017 can be more productive than Sirk was in 2015. I think it's very possible, but not guaranteed.

Jim, does that straighten it out?

[jimsumner]

Yes, I confused 2015, 2016 and 2017 a couple of times there ...

My point, just to be clear:

2015: Sirk had the most productive year of any Duke quarterback in a quarter century -- at least.

2016: Jones had some growing pains, but ended up showing his great potential. We would have been better off in 2016 with a healthy Sirk.

2017: We are better off with an experienced Jones than we would have been if Sirk had been the starter last year and we had gotten only backup minutes from Jones. The thing I want to see is whether an experienced Jones in 2017 can be more productive than Sirk was in 2015. I think it's very possible, but not guaranteed.

Jim, does that straighten it out?

As you know, we've long been in general agreement on the merits of Thomas Sirk. But the narrative did get a bit tangled there. Just a tad.

And, yes, I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Daniel Jones can do this season.

That would be 2017. :)

[CDu]

31.5 - 23.3 = 8.2.

The kicking game accounted for probably 3-4 points per game alone: 15-18 points off of Reed's misses alone; another 20-30 off of the times Cutcliffe chose to punt or go for it on 4th and long instead of trying to kick. Add in the extra 21 points on return TDs and we are down to a 2-3 point difference in offensive production. Which feels abount right. The 2015 offense was a bit better than the 2016 offense. We got 5.5 yards per play in 2015 vs 5.1 in 2016. I would certainly give some of that 2-3 ppg difference to Sirk over Jones. But he was probably only a 1-2 point per game improvement over Jones.

And that was my point: the majority of the scoring difference was due to going from an awesome kicker to arguably the worst starting kicker in D-1. Sirk was better than Jones (despite Oly's strawman, I agree Sirk was better). But he wasn't 8 ppg better. The line got worse; the RB group got worse; the TE group got worse; the WR group got worse; and most importantly the kicking and return game got worse. So while the QB play also got worse, I feel quite strongly that it was not the primary reason we scored 8 fewer ppg last year.

But, what do I know? According to Oly I have an amazing lack of comprehension.

[Wander]

Fine ... all I want to hear is an acknowledgement that Sirk in 2015 was the most productive quarterback Duke has had in the last quarter century. If you won't admit that, then, yes, you are denigrating Thomas Sirk.


I don't know exactly what you mean by "productive," but Thad Lewis is easily the best quarterback Duke has had the last quarter century. That doesn't denigrate Sirk or anyone else.

[CDu]

I don't know exactly what you mean by "productive," but Thad Lewis is easily the best quarterback Duke has had the last quarter century. That doesn't denigrate Sirk or anyone else.

Yup. I would take Lewis and perhaps Renfree (though that is closer) over Sirk. Lewis and Renfree had the misfortune of not having the talent around them that we got in the Boone/Sirk years.

And as you said, I don't think it is denigrating to say that two future NFL QBs were better than Sirk.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't know exactly what you mean by "productive," but Thad Lewis is easily the best quarterback Duke has had the last quarter century. That doesn't denigrate Sirk or anyone else.

By productive, I mean a quarterback who can move the offense and get in the end zone.

Thad Lewis never had a season as productive as Sirk in 2015.

His best year (2009), he had less total yards and less TD responsibility than Sirk. Lewis had more passing yards and more passing TDs, yes, but Jones's 803 net yards rushing and his eight TDs rushing give him the edge (note: both played in 12 games -- Lewis was 5-7 ... Sirk was 8-4. Of course, that's just individual stuff and the return.

As for the difference in records, that involves a number of factors, but Lewis' defense in 2009 gave up less yards and less points than Sirk's defense in 2015.

And, oh yes, Lewis' offense -- which included WRs Connor Vernon, Donovan Varner, and Austin Kelly (that's the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 14 receivers in Duke history and better than anybody Sirk ever got to throw to) averaged 368 yards and 25 points a game ... Sirk's offense averaged almost 450 yards and more than 33 points a game in 2015. And, oh yes, the 2009 Devils also a good kicker -- Will Snyderwine was first team All-ACC that year.

Lewis got to start four years and he was very good in three of them. But he was never as productive as Sirk was in his one year as a starter.

CDu, glad you admitted that Sirk was better in 2015 than Jones in 2016. Now all you need to do is admit he was better than Lewis in 2009, Renfree in 2012 or any other QB we've had since Steve Spurrier was coach.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm glad we've had multiple quality QBs under Cut. Each has had their strengths and weaknesses, as did their teams. Not sure I need to parse it more than that.

Go Duke!!!

[Wander]

By productive, I mean a quarterback who can move the offense and get in the end zone.


Then you're wrong. There's a reason Lewis was 2nd team ACC and Sirk couldn't get honorable mention. In particular, you're vastly under-appreciating the difference in our offensive line between ~2000-2010 and ~2010-present and the massive effect that has on the team offensive stats you're quoting. Sirk was good in 2015, but Thad Lewis was far better.

[CDu]

By productive, I mean a quarterback who can move the offense and get in the end zone.

Thad Lewis never had a season as productive as Sirk in 2015.

His best year (2009), he had less total yards and less TD responsibility than Sirk. Lewis had more passing yards and more passing TDs, yes, but Jones's 803 net yards rushing and his eight TDs rushing give him the edge (note: both played in 12 games -- Lewis was 5-7 ... Sirk was 8-4. Of course, that's just individual stuff and the return.

As for the difference in records, that involves a number of factors, but Lewis' defense in 2009 gave up less yards and less points than Sirk's defense in 2015.

And, oh yes, Lewis' offense -- which included WRs Connor Vernon, Donovan Varner, and Austin Kelly (that's the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 14 receivers in Duke history and better than anybody Sirk ever got to throw to) averaged 368 yards and 25 points a game ... Sirk's offense averaged almost 450 yards and more than 33 points a game in 2015. And, oh yes, the 2009 Devils also a good kicker -- Will Snyderwine was first team All-ACC that year.

Lewis got to start four years and he was very good in three of them. But he was never as productive as Sirk was in his one year as a starter.

CDu, glad you admitted that Sirk was better in 2015 than Jones in 2016. Now all you need to do is admit he was better than Lewis in 2009, Renfree in 2012 or any other QB we've had since Steve Spurrier was coach.

There was nothing to admit. I never said Jones was Sirk's equal last year.

But, sorry to disappoint you, but Sirk was not better than Lewis, and arguably not better than Renfree. I agree fully that the overall offense was slightly more productive in 2015 than the other years. But, just as you failed to acknowledge or understand the impact of differences in the rest of the team between 2015 and 2016, you have neglected the substantial differences in the 10-15 guys surrounding the QB between 2009/2012 and 2015. One man does not make an offense. Lewis and Renfree are/were better QBs who had the misfortune of playing with less talented teammates. Put Lewis and Renfree behind the line that Sirk and Boone had and they would have worked wonders.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I don't know exactly what you mean by "productive," but Thad Lewis is easily the best quarterback Duke has had the last quarter century. That doesn't denigrate Sirk or anyone else.

If I remember correctly, when Thad's career at Duke ended he had passed 10K+ career yards. Only 60 Qbs in NCAA history had accomplished that. I've not followed this record, so I don't know if anyone else has joined this elite group.;)

Every once in a while I fantasize about what Thad's career would have been if he'd been coach all 4 years by Coach Cutcliffe and had had high quality personnel at various positions.

[Olympic Fan]

There was nothing to admit. I never said Jones was Sirk's equal last year.

But, sorry to disappoint you, but Sirk was not better than Lewis, and arguably not better than Renfree. I agree fully that the overall offense was slightly more productive in 2015 than the other years. But, just as you failed to acknowledge or understand the impact of differences in the rest of the team between 2015 and 2016, you have neglected the substantial differences in the 10-15 guys surrounding the QB between 2009/2012 and 2015. One man does not make an offense. Lewis and Renfree are/were better QBs who had the misfortune of playing with less talented teammates. Put Lewis and Renfree behind the line that Sirk and Boone had and they would have worked wonders.

Sure ... you're making Duke's 2015 line (with one all-acc player) into something special. And his runners and receivers (not a single all-acc player) ... yeah, that's why Sirk was so productive. Really?

Lewis and Renfree were better passers. Neither could match Sirk's 2015 season in total offense or TDs created individually ... and neither QBed an offense that was as effective as the one Sirk led -- an offense with one All-ACC player ...

Again, I continue to be amazed at the inability some of you have to recognize that Sirk was in 2015 the most productive QB we've had in the modern era. His line was good -- but not as good as 2012-14 (Renfree had Harding, Simmons, Tomlinson and Cofield up front ... Skura was the only 2015 guy in that class. He had Duncan, Powell and Snead at tailback. He had Crowder and Vernon at wide receivers. The runners might have been slightly better in 2015 -- Duncan and Powell were older, but Snead was better than Shaun Wilson, so maybe not. And no way the 2015 receivers were as good as the 2012 group.

Renfree had a BETTER offense around him than Sirk had in 2015. So did Lewis in 2009.

Tell me where the 2015 Devils were better than the 2012 Devils, other than QB? Yet, the 2015 Devils were a more effective offense. And, as I pointed out, more effective that Thad's 2009 team.

You guys will go to any lengths to avoid admitting how effective Sirk was. Because he's not a classic dropback passer? Yeah, Lewis and Renfree were better passers. But neither put up the numbers Sirk did.

[CDu]

Sure ... you're making Duke's 2015 line (with one all-acc player) into something special. And his runners and receivers (not a single all-acc player) ... yeah, that's why Sirk was so productive. Really?

Lewis and Renfree were better passers. Neither could match Sirk's 2015 season in total offense or TDs created individually ... and neither QBed an offense that was as effective as the one Sirk led -- an offense with one All-ACC player ...

Again, I continue to be amazed at the inability some of you have to recognize that Sirk was in 2015 the most productive QB we've had in the modern era. His line was good -- but not as good as 2012-14 (Renfree had Harding, Simmons, Tomlinson and Cofield up front ... Skura was the only 2015 guy in that class. He had Duncan, Powell and Snead at tailback. He had Crowder and Vernon at wide receivers. The runners might have been slightly better in 2015 -- Duncan and Powell were older, but Snead was better than Shaun Wilson, so maybe not. And no way the 2015 receivers were as good as the 2012 group.

Renfree had a BETTER offense around him than Sirk had in 2015. So did Lewis in 2009.

Tell me where the 2015 Devils were better than the 2012 Devils, other than QB? Yet, the 2015 Devils were a more effective offense. And, as I pointed out, more effective that Thad's 2009 team.

You guys will go to any lengths to avoid admitting how effective Sirk was. Because he's not a classic dropback passer? Yeah, Lewis and Renfree were better passers. But neither put up the numbers Sirk did.

Snead was not better than Wilson. And Powell barely played. And somehow you have tossed in that Lewis had better teammates than Sirk, with no evidence whatsoever? Nicely done. Yeah, I would much rather have had Dez Scott and Boyette than Powell/Duncan/Wilson, and the crappy 2009 line than the 2015 group that included two NFL-bound seniors Skura and Patrick. Good call.

I said I thought Renfree was arguably better. But Lewis was unquestionably better. To suggest otherwise is denigrating Lewis, the best QB we have had in over two decades.

[richmclean]

Exactly. Sirk was a terrific football player and a tough, tough kid. He was a terrific running QB. But he was a below-average passer. That is literally the ONLY negative that I or most others have said about Sirk. Creating the strawman that we are denigrating Sirk is just inappropriate.

But to look at PPG differences to say how awesome Sirk was is misleading and downright inaccurate. The line was worse, the RBs were worse, and the WRs and TEs were worse. The special teams (which represent basically the entire difference in scoring) were MUCH worse. Special teams is the main reason why the team scored fewer points.

Sirk was a terrific football player (as I said in my previous post and pretty much every post on the subject). But his absence was most certainly NOT the reason our team scored six fewer points per game last year. Pointing that out is not denigrating Sirk.

Agree with this. The QB play was not the difference between the two seasons. Sirk had 7 clunker passing games (QB rating under 110), while Jones had 4 so to assume that Sirk would outperform Jones in any specific game would be wrong. Jones also had the 175 QB rating gem at Notre Dame and Sirk had nothing close. In the Indiana game his running was special, his passing (QB rating of 69.9, 1 TD 3 INTs) was especially not.

To not include the loss of DeVon Edwards last year in game 4 and Breon Borders in game 10 as significant factors would be missing a big reason the defense gave up 3 more ppg in 2016. Add in the 8 pt offensive dip the total point differential with 2015 was 11 pts. The two away game blowouts at the end of the year certainly hurt the stats.

But we did beat UNC so the season was a success...:confused:

[budwom]

^ and (FWIW) Jones' performance vs unc was just about flawless....attending in person and watching downfield, I was incredibly impressed by his decision making. A great performance vs
a very good (cheating) team.

[Bob Green]

In an effort to turn the discussion toward the 2017 season, let's talk about Shaun Wilson who already holds two school rushing records: Most Rushing Yards in a Game - 245 against Kansas in 2014 and Highest Average Yards per Rushing Attempt in a Season - 7.67 yards in 2014 season

Career Rushing Yards is a stat worth tracking and discussing. Wilson enters his senior season with 1,645 career rushing yards which is good for 17th overall in Duke history. How high can he go? Will he finish his career in the Top 5?

Here are the current Top 10:

1. Chris Douglas - 3,122
2. Steve Jones - 2,951
3. Randy Cuthbert - 2,790
4. Mike Grayson - 2,441
5. Tony Benjamin - 2,251

To overtake Benjamin at 5, Wilson needs to rush for 607 yards, which certainly seems achievable. Add in 190 more yards (797) and Wilson moves ahead of Grayson at 4. Again, that seems achievable. It will take 1,146 yards to pass Cuthbert. That seems to be a stretch seeing as Coach Cutcliffe prefers to spread the rushing attempts across multiple running backs.

So my take is Shaun Wilson has an opportunity to move into the Top 5 rushers in Duke history with a solid senior season.

[Olympic Fan]

^ and (FWIW) Jones' performance vs unc was just about flawless...attending in person and watching downfield, I was incredibly impressed by his decision making. A great performance vs
a very good (cheating) team.

And how about Sirk's performance against Miami -- two long TD drives in the final four minutes to win that game? Or the Virginia Tech game -- almost 400 yards total offense, plus two TDs in overtime, plus the game-winning two-point conversion. Then in the Indiana game, the game-tying TD with 41 seconds to help is win our first bowl game in 45 years.

Yes, Jones had a nice performance against UNC last yea, but Sirk had his moments too.

To address a few other issues raises since my last post:

Snead was not better than Wilson

Really ... Josh Snead is currently No. 4 in Duke history in yards per carry. He's only slightly ahead of Shaun Wilson in that category, but Wilson's total has been dropping steadily since his freshman season when he averaged more than 20 yards a carry (245 yards on 12 carries) against a terrible Kansas defense. Wilson might be a better kickoff returner, but Snead was a better running back.

The QB play was not the difference between the two seasons. Sirk had 7 clunker passing games (QB rating under 110), while Jones had 4 so to assume that Sirk would outperform Jones in any specific game would be wrong. Jones also had the 175 QB rating gem at Notre Dame and Sirk had nothing close. In the Indiana game his running was special, his passing (QB rating of 69.9, 1 TD 3 INTs) was especially not.

Again, you continue to focus on passing and passing only. Yes, Sirk's passing in the Indiana game was not great -- but he rushed for 155 yards and his rushing won the game! You want to argue that QB play was not the difference between the two seasons, but you have a hard time explaining how, with Sirk at QB, Duke gained significantly more yards and scored more points than with Jones at QB. Bringing up injuries to Edwards and Borders might explain the defensive dropoff, but has no real impact on the offensive slide.

There's a reason Lewis was 2nd team ACC and Sirk couldn't get honorable mention

Could that reason be that there were more good quarterbacks in the ACC in 2015 than in 2009? Let's see, to get ACC votes in 2015, Sirk needed to outpoll the No. 3 man in the Heisman vote (DeShaun Watson), the 2016 Heisman winner (Lamar Jackson), the 2013 ACC player of the year (Justin Thomas) and Marquise Williams, who QBed the Coastal Division champ and Brad Kaaya of Miami. When Lewis finished second-team All-ACC in 2009, he was second to Josh Nesbit -- anybody remember him? And FWIW, even though Sirk didn't get any All-ACC votes, he was third in ACC total offense -- less than two yards a game behind No. 2 Marquise Williams and ahead of Brad Kaaya and Justin Thomas and Lamar Jackson.

Somehow you have tossed in that Lewis had better teammates than Sirk

Well, I might have gone a bit too far on that one. The point I was trying make --and I did offer evidence -- is that Renfree had a better OL and better WRs and comparable running backs in 2012. Lewis had significantly better WRs (three of the top 14 receivers in Duke history), inferior RBs and a young, but talented OL. (BTW: Not relevant to our QB debate, but the 2009 DL was probably the best in modern Duke history)

I continue to argue that Sirk was not surrounded by anything special -- certainly not better than Jones had. I keep repeating -- Duke's most productive offense in the last half century had one All-ACC player (first-second-third team), center Matt Skura. Sirk was the most effective QB we've seen in a quarter century.

[Bob Green]

Snead was not better than Wilson

Really ... Josh Snead is currently No. 4 in Duke history in yards per carry. He's only slightly ahead of Shaun Wilson in that category, but Wilson's total has been dropping steadily since his freshman season when he averaged more than 20 yards a carry (245 yards on 12 carries) against a terrible Kansas defense. Wilson might be a better kickoff returner, but Snead was a better running back.



I disagree. Shaun Wilson has 1,645 career rushing yards entering his senior season compared to Snead with 1,769 in 4 seasons. Wilson also has 12 rushing touchdowns to Snead's 8.

Wilson is a better running back than Snead.

EDIT: Receiving yards. Wilson has 462 receiving yards with two TDs in 3 seasons. Snead had 167 receiving yards with two TDs in 4 seasons.

[CDu]

I disagree. Shaun Wilson has 1,645 career rushing yards entering his senior season compared to Snead with 1,769 in 4 seasons. Wilson also has 12 rushing touchdowns to Snead's 8.

Wilson is a better running back than Snead.

EDIT: Receiving yards. Wilson has 462 receiving yards with two TDs in 3 seasons. Snead had 167 receiving yards with two TDs in 4 seasons.

But those stats don't support his argument, so they get swept aside. Much like he keeps insisting that the 2015 offensive line wasn't special because they "only had one All-ACC player." Conveniently overlooking the fact that they had two more honorable mention All-ACC guys (Blaser and Patrick), one of whom would join Skura in the NFL thereafter. We had three of the top 25 offensive linemen in the ACC out of 70 starters. The 2015 offensive line was WAY ahead of anything the 2009 team had. Oly either doesn't understand the importance of the o-line or doesn't understand how good our o-line was in 2015, or doesn't understand how bad our line was in 2009.

[rasputin]

As you know, we've long been in general agreement on the merits of Thomas Sirk. But the narrative did get a bit tangled there. Just a tad.

And, yes, I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Daniel Jones can do this season.

That would be 2017. :)

And continuing the season into 2018.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm glad that everyone is passionate about Duke Football!

From my perspective, statistics are a useful guide but just have too many variables from which one can draw definitive conclusions when one tries to compare over two different seasons. What was the level of competition between two seasons? What was the quality of the running game to set up the passing game? Did we have experienced receivers or was it a tough year for the corp? How was the O-line? Did we have a great FG kicker which took a lot of pressure off the offense ("just get it to the 30 or so, and we're good") or not ("damn, we gotta score a TD because I'm not confident with anything very deep")? Did we have a great punter who could flip the field, and a defense that could pin the opposition, so that we got better field position on average? Who was our O-coordinator and what was the quality of the play calling? Did we have a good D that kept the other side off the board, or were we in constant catch-up mode which limits the play calls and therefore the expected efficiency? Were all injuries comparable?

As the old saw goes, there are three types of untruths: lies, damn lies, and statistics. This argument is an attempt to definitively assert the answer to an inherently subjective question.

Anyway, Johnny Dawkins was the best Duke basketball player ever. Show me whatever statistic you want, that's my belief and everyone who disagrees is just damn wrong.

[sagegrouse]

Stats are one thing. Winning games is something else:

2008 4-8 Lewis
2009 5-7 Lewis
2010 3-9 Renfree
2011 3-9 Renfree
2012 6-7 Renfree (Boone -- 1 start)
2013 10-4 Boone (9-2 in games he started)
2014 9-4 Boone
2015 8-5 Sirk
2016 4-8 Daniel

Not sure the QB attributions are 100 percent, but Anthony Boone was 19-6 as starter!

[Olympic Fan]

Stats are one thing. Winning games is something else:

2008 4-8 Lewis
2009 5-7 Lewis
2010 3-9 Renfree
2011 3-9 Renfree
2012 6-7 Renfree (Boone -- 1 start)
2013 10-4 Boone (9-2 in games he started)
2014 9-4 Boone
2015 8-5 Sirk
2016 4-8 Daniel

Not sure the QB attributions are 100 percent, but Anthony Boone was 19-6 as starter!

Sirk was 8-4 in games he started (he missed the loss to Pittsburgh) ... actually he was 9-3, since he won the Miami game that was stolen by the refs (not my opinion, but the ACC's)