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rocketeli
05-12-2017, 05:35 PM
With Frank Jackson going to the draft (reportedly)
last years roster
Tatum-draft
Giles--draft
Jeter-transfer
Allen-back
Kennard-draft
Delaurier -back
Jones-used up eligibility
Jackson-draft
Bolden-back
Jefferson-used up eligibility
Vrankovic-back
Obi-transfer
White-back
Pagliuca used up eligibility
Robinson-back (walk-on/scholarship)
Besser -back (walk on)

That leaves Duke with the following returning scholarship players-listed with the games played and minutes per game after the name:
Allen 29.6 (34)
Delaurier 7.1 (12)
Bolden 6.5 (24)
Vrankovic 7.8 (13)
White 6.1 (10)

My question--has there ever been a transition between seasons where Duke had less experience returning/more players leaving?

CDu
05-12-2017, 05:38 PM
With Frank Jackson going to the draft (reportedly)
last years roster
Tatum-draft
Giles--draft
Jeter-transfer
Allen-back
Kennard-draft
Delaurier -back
Jones-used up eligibility
Jackson-draft
Bolden-back
Jefferson-used up eligibility
Vrankovic-back
Obi-transfer
White-back
Pagliuca used up eligibility
Robinson-back (walk-on/scholarship)
Besser -back (walk on)

That leaves Duke with the following returning scholarship players-listed with the games played and minutes per game after the name:
Allen 29.6 (34)
Delaurier 7.1 (12)
Bolden 6.5 (24)
Vrankovic 7.8 (13)
White 6.1 (10)

My question--has there ever been a transition between seasons where Duke had less experience returning/more players leaving?

Not sure why you felt the need to add Obi and the walk-ons to last year's list but excluded the walk-ons from the returnee list.

kAzE
05-12-2017, 05:48 PM
Not sure why you felt the need to add Obi and the walk-ons to last year's list be excluded the walk-ons from the returnee list.

Dramatic effect.

But the answer to thread title question is probably yes.

Jeffrey
05-12-2017, 05:49 PM
But the answer to thread title question is probably yes.

Probably?

kAzE
05-12-2017, 05:53 PM
Probably?

I've learned to never use absolutes here, although in this case, it may not have been necessary. Still, it's always possible there may have been some random case of a 1940s team that had 10 seniors on it, so I can't be 100% sure :p

CrazyNotCrazie
05-12-2017, 05:58 PM
With Frank Jackson going to the draft (reportedly)
last years roster
Tatum-draft
Giles--draft
Jeter-transfer
Allen-back
Kennard-draft
Delaurier -back
Jones-used up eligibility
Jackson-draft
Bolden-back
Jefferson-used up eligibility
Vrankovic-back
Obi-transfer
White-back
Pagliuca used up eligibility
Robinson-back (walk-on/scholarship)
Besser -back (walk on)

That leaves Duke with the following returning scholarship players-listed with the games played and minutes per game after the name:
Allen 29.6 (34)
Delaurier 7.1 (12)
Bolden 6.5 (24)
Vrankovic 7.8 (13)
White 6.1 (10)

My question--has there ever been a transition between seasons where Duke had less experience returning/more players leaving?

The only thing even close that I can think of was 1999, when we lost Brand, Avery and Maggette early plus Trajan and Domzalski to graduation, and I think Burgess transferred out at that point too. However, we still had returning rising senior Chris Carrawell (averaged 9.9 ppg in 98-99 then really raised his game the next year), rising junior Battier (went from a key player at 9.1 ppg to a beast at 17.4 ppg), rising redshirt junior Nate James (5 ppg to 11 ppg), and Christensen returning from his mission. So there were three guys who had received significant PT in the past, all of whom were upperclassmen.

Jeffrey
05-12-2017, 06:05 PM
I've learned to never use absolutes here, although in this case, it may not have been necessary. Still, it's always possible there may have been some random case of a 1940s team that had 10 seniors on it, so I can't be 100% sure :p

Good point, Jim will burn us if there was. How he remembers all of those amazing facts is totally beyond me. The good news is I'm rather certain I remember where I parked this morning.

jimsumner
05-12-2017, 07:07 PM
The 1999 team had nine recruited players and lost six of them; Carrawell, Battier and James were the only returnees from that team in 2000. Christensen played 70 minutes in 1996, was on a mission in 1997 and 1998 and was a healthy redshirt in 1999. So, he was the fourth recruited player with some experience, albeit limited and rusty.

In the pre-freshman eligible era, the 1958 team started five seniors. None of the '58 reserves made much of a jump in 1959. The 1959 team played a lot of sophomores.

But that's apples and oranges.

Saratoga2
05-12-2017, 09:01 PM
With Frank Jackson going to the draft (reportedly)
last years roster
Tatum-draft
Giles--draft
Jeter-transfer
Allen-back
Kennard-draft
Delaurier -back
Jones-used up eligibility
Jackson-draft
Bolden-back
Jefferson-used up eligibility
Vrankovic-back
Obi-transfer
White-back
Pagliuca used up eligibility
Robinson-back (walk-on/scholarship)
Besser -back (walk on)

That leaves Duke with the following returning scholarship players-listed with the games played and minutes per game after the name:
Allen 29.6 (34)
Delaurier 7.1 (12)
Bolden 6.5 (24)
Vrankovic 7.8 (13)
White 6.1 (10)

My question--has there ever been a transition between seasons where Duke had less experience returning/more players leaving?

Is your intent in asking this question historical in nature or are you attempting to imply something like

1. This substantial loss of players is an artifact of the OAD era?
2. Transfers due to lack of PT?
3. General unhappiness playing for the team?
4. Other?

If so, I agree that the OAD era has and will continue to have a major impact on teams which are successful in recruiting top high major players. There will also likely be some players who are unable to crack the lineup who were stars, if not McDonald's All Americans, and who see more opportunities in a smaller pond. I didn't see what I would characterize as a general unhappiness although perhaps individuals were unhappy with the role they were able to play. If you are suggesting something else, please be more definitive.

Despite the large turnover on the team, I don't hear many fans who want us to avoid recruiting Duval and Bamba, which if we are successful, will lead to a hefty turnover again next year at this time. We are living in a new reality. As fans we don't have to like it, and I doubt the coaches like it either. It is what it is, take it or leave it.

sagegrouse
05-12-2017, 10:48 PM
Is this the most turnover between seasons ever?


Yes. Six out of seven players who averaged ten minutes per game have left the program (counts Giles; doesn't count Chase and Marques). I don't mean to make this a negative because I am happy for the return of Grayson, Marques, Javin, Jack White and Vrank.

The next worse years are 1986 (four out of seven rotation players), 1999 (five out of eight), and 2015 (four out of seven).

Kindly,
Sage

Olympic Fan
05-12-2017, 11:57 PM
Think of it in terms of returning minutes played.

Duke returns players with a total of 3,064 minutes played in their career -- 2,646 of that belongs to Grayson Allen. The rest of that "experience" is 157 minutes for Marques Bolden, 115 for Antonio Vrankovic (101 last year; 14 in 2016), 85 minutes for Javin DeLaurier and 61 for Jack White.

That 3,064 minutes is the least experience returning in the Krzyzewski era.

Second lowest was 3,623 minutes in 2006-07. That team had no seniors, one junior (DeMarcus Nelson) and two sophomores who started the year before (Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus).

Next was 4,135 in 2015-6 after the national title. Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones had shared a starting spot while Grayson Allen had played less than 200 minutes. Fifth year senior Marshall Plumlee had not played a lot in his career.

Fourth was 1999-2000 with 6,378 minutes. Only three veterans returned but senior Chris Carrawell, redshirt junior Nate James and junior Shane Battier had played A LOT.

Fifth was 1986-87 with 6,556 minutes. After K's first great class graduated. That team had senior point guard Tommy Amaker, plus sophomore big man Danny Ferry (21 starts in '86)

(Note: These numbers only count scholarship players)

Sop by any reasonable measure, next season will be the least experienced team in the Krzyzewski era.

chriso
05-13-2017, 10:12 AM
Think of it in terms of returning minutes played.

Duke returns players with a total of 3,064 minutes played in their career -- 2,646 of that belongs to Grayson Allen. The rest of that "experience" is 157 minutes for Marques Bolden, 115 for Antonio Vrankovic (101 last year; 14 in 2016), 85 minutes for Javin DeLaurier and 61 for Jack White.

That 3,064 minutes is the least experience returning in the Krzyzewski era.

Second lowest was 3,623 minutes in 2006-07. That team had no seniors, one junior (DeMarcus Nelson) and two sophomores who started the year before (Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus).

Next was 4,135 in 2015-6 after the national title. Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones had shared a starting spot while Grayson Allen had played less than 200 minutes. Fifth year senior Marshall Plumlee had not played a lot in his career.

Fourth was 1999-2000 with 6,378 minutes. Only three veterans returned but senior Chris Carrawell, redshirt junior Nate James and junior Shane Battier had played A LOT.

Fifth was 1986-87 with 6,556 minutes. After K's first great class graduated. That team had senior point guard Tommy Amaker, plus sophomore big man Danny Ferry (21 starts in '86)

(Note: These numbers only count scholarship players)

Sop by any reasonable measure, next season will be the least experienced team in the Krzyzewski era.

Well researched. Thanks!

arnie
05-13-2017, 10:43 AM
Think of it in terms of returning minutes played.

Duke returns players with a total of 3,064 minutes played in their career -- 2,646 of that belongs to Grayson Allen. The rest of that "experience" is 157 minutes for Marques Bolden, 115 for Antonio Vrankovic (101 last year; 14 in 2016), 85 minutes for Javin DeLaurier and 61 for Jack White.

That 3,064 minutes is the least experience returning in the Krzyzewski era.

Second lowest was 3,623 minutes in 2006-07. That team had no seniors, one junior (DeMarcus Nelson) and two sophomores who started the year before (Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus).

Next was 4,135 in 2015-6 after the national title. Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones had shared a starting spot while Grayson Allen had played less than 200 minutes. Fifth year senior Marshall Plumlee had not played a lot in his career.

Fourth was 1999-2000 with 6,378 minutes. Only three veterans returned but senior Chris Carrawell, redshirt junior Nate James and junior Shane Battier had played A LOT.

Fifth was 1986-87 with 6,556 minutes. After K's first great class graduated. That team had senior point guard Tommy Amaker, plus sophomore big man Danny Ferry (21 starts in '86)

(Note: These numbers only count scholarship players)

Sop by any reasonable measure, next season will be the least experienced team in the Krzyzewski era.

Very interesting read. And are we sure no other transfers are possible this spring?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-13-2017, 11:02 AM
Very interesting read. And are we sure no other transfers are possible this spring?

Out? Or in?

And, anything is possible.

arnie
05-13-2017, 11:08 AM
Out? Or in?

And, anything is possible.

Both ways - at least one more in or out wouldn't surprise me.

jimsumner
05-13-2017, 11:27 AM
Out? Or in?

And, anything is possible.

A transfer in would not help for next season unless it's a grad-student transfer. A regular transfer would have to sit out a season.

Duke is kicking the tires on post Juwann Durham, who is leaving UConn. He would have to sit a year.

Even with Duval, I could be talked into a grad-student combo guard. Without Duval, one might be a necessity.

Skitzle
05-13-2017, 11:28 AM
I feel like this team was also a stone's throw and a short trip away from Losing Bolden and Allen. That would have been nuts...

Also makes me feel like this was one of the fabled and rare bad locker room juju years like 2007-2009.

jjredickrules
05-13-2017, 12:20 PM
I feel like this team was also a stone's throw and a short trip away from Losing Bolden and Allen. That would have been nuts...

I mean, we are still probably a trip away from losing Grayson. [I'm so sorry]

Also, did we even get confirmation that Bolden was close to declaring? We got rumors, but I haven't seen evidence from his own camp.

I really appreciate the info in this thread. Great detail and research. Seems like next year may be "The Grayson Allen Show".

UrinalCake
05-13-2017, 01:58 PM
Excellent research Olympic Fan. Totally agree that minutes played is more significant than what class you are. There is SOME experience gained by a player like Vrank who has practiced with the team for two full seasons, but for the most part next season we will have Grayson and a bunch of guys who have never played any real minutes. Kentucky may actually be more experienced than us.

Grayson's role will be a lot like Quinn Cook's in that 2015 team, except that season Cook at least had juniors Amile and MP3 and sophomore Matt Jones alongside him.

Olympic Fan
05-13-2017, 02:08 PM
Excellent research Olympic Fan. Totally agree that minutes played is more significant than what class you are. There is SOME experience gained by a player like Vrank who has practiced with the team for two full seasons, but for the most part next season we will have Grayson and a bunch of guys who have never played any real minutes. Kentucky may actually be more experienced than us. Grayson's role will be a lot like Quinn Cook's in that 2015 team, except that season Cook at least had juniors Amile and MP3 and sophomore Matt Jones alongside him.

No -- and it's not even close ... Kentucky returns three players with a grand total of 826 minutes experience -- most of that is Gabriel (676 minutes).

Duke will be MUCH more experienced than that 'Cats.

In the ACC, Dike will be 14th in terms of returning experience. Pitt, with all the defections, has less than 1,300 minutes returning (most of that in the person of Ryan Luther)

sagegrouse
05-13-2017, 02:33 PM
No -- and it's not even close ... Kentucky returns three players with a grand total of 826 minutes experience -- most of that is Gabriel (676 minutes).

Duke will be MUCH more experienced than that 'Cats.

In the ACC, Dike will be 14th in terms of returning experience. Pitt, with all the defections, has less than 1,300 minutes returning (most of that in the person of Ryan Luther)

Another useful stat is what percent of minutes we LOST from the previous season. We return players who played 1,423 minutes in 2017; we played collectively 7,400 minutes (37 x 200). We LOST players playing 81 percent of the minutes in 2017.

In 1999, as a comparison, we LOST 67 percent of the minutes played that season (returning Carrawell, Battier, James).

In 1986 we LOST "only" 56 percent of the minutes played (returning Amaker, Ferry and Billy King).

In 2002, despite the loss of three A-A players, we LOST only 52 percent of our minutes, returning Dahntay, Duhon and Ewing.

Cheers! Go Duke!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-13-2017, 02:45 PM
A transfer in would not help for next season unless it's a grad-student transfer. A regular transfer would have to sit out a season.

Duke is kicking the tires on post Juwann Durham, who is leaving UConn. He would have to sit a year.

Even with Duval, I could be talked into a grad-student combo guard. Without Duval, one might be a necessity.

I have assumed that we have been kicking the tires of grad transfers for the last six weeks or so. No inside info or anything, just seems like an obvious move.

Furniture
05-13-2017, 04:51 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7414&stc=1

Natty_B
05-14-2017, 09:37 AM
A transfer in would not help for next season unless it's a grad-student transfer. A regular transfer would have to sit out a season.

Duke is kicking the tires on post Juwann Durham, who is leaving UConn. He would have to sit a year.

Even with Duval, I could be talked into a grad-student combo guard. Without Duval, one might be a necessity.

I think a grad transfer would be great. However most have picked a school or have narrowed their choices down to a few. Who is left? Geno Thorpe from USF? He's visiting Pitt and Cuse and will be attending his third school. State got Hunt from A&T yesterday. Alstork is visiting Georgetown and Illinois. MiKyle McIntosh? None of these guys have been linked to Duke at all. Now dudes can finish in summer school and be a late grad transfer but then you're looking at a guy coming in late late summer. At this point I would guess Bamba is more likely than a play this season grad transfer.

MarkD83
05-14-2017, 10:02 AM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7414&stc=1

I always love these pictures. Congrats to Sean, Matt and Nick. In the future I hope you look at this picture and realize that graduating from Duke was one of the top accomplishments in your life and even more important than anything that happened on a basketball court.

Troublemaker
05-14-2017, 10:11 AM
I think a grad transfer would be great. However most have picked a school or have narrowed their choices down to a few. Who is left? Geno Thorpe from USF? He's visiting Pitt and Cuse and will be attending his third school. State got Hunt from A&T yesterday. Alstork is visiting Georgetown and Illinois. MiKyle McIntosh? None of these guys have been linked to Duke at all. Now dudes can finish in summer school and be a late grad transfer but then you're looking at a guy coming in late late summer. At this point I would guess Bamba is more likely than a play this season grad transfer.

I think if we pursued, we could get added onto the list for the top guys still available like Alstork, James Daniel, Cam Johnson, Darius Thompson, etc. When Duke calls, I have to believe ears will perk up, and the players and their families will give us a visit at least. (With Johnson and Thompson, though, if there's some sort of gentlemen's agreement between ACC programs to not pursue each other's grad transfers, then scratch them.)

But I'm not sure Duke is interested.

CDu
05-14-2017, 10:39 AM
I think if we pursued, we could get added onto the list for the top guys still available like Alstork, James Daniel, Cam Johnson, Darius Thompson, etc. When Duke calls, I have to believe ears will perk up, and the players and their families will give us a visit at least. (With Johnson and Thompson, though, if there's some sort of gentlemen's agreement between ACC programs to not pursue each other's grad transfers, then scratch them.)

But I'm not sure Duke is interested.

Yeah, the only way I would see us being interested now is if we don't land Duval. Then we might jump in on a grad PG. But with Tucker joining Allen, Trent, and O'Connell onnthe wings, with Bolden, Carter, and DeLaurier in the frontcourt, with Goldwire, White, and Vrankovic to provide practice depth and spot minutes, I think the only need is a starting PG.

budwom
05-14-2017, 10:43 AM
yeah, right now Slim Pickens is available.

Furniture
05-14-2017, 12:02 PM
yeah, right now Slim Pickens is available.

Whats his bio?

Indoor66
05-14-2017, 01:15 PM
Whats his bio?

Was hell on a horse....

sagegrouse
05-14-2017, 01:26 PM
Whats his bio?

Well, his most famous movie role may have been waging "noo-ku-lar combat" against the Russkies in Dr. Strangelove (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ynY5NvYsZY).

miramar
05-14-2017, 01:29 PM
Another useful stat is what percent of minutes we LOST from the previous season. We return players who played 1,423 minutes in 2017; we played collectively 7,400 minutes (37 x 200). We LOST players playing 81 percent of the minutes in 2017.

In 1999, as a comparison, we LOST 67 percent of the minutes played that season (returning Carrawell, Battier, James).

Those are absolutely stunning numbers since the turnover in 1999 was pretty shocking, particularly since we weren't used to players leaving early back then. But then again next year would be far worse if Grayson had enjoyed a healthy and productive season that would have improved his draft stock.

Back then Battier led the team to a national championship as a senior two years later, so maybe Grayson can do the same next year.