MLax: Bubble Watch

[burnspbesq]

Welp, thanks, Marquette. The Golden Eagles' win over Denver in the Big East semifinals on Thursday night puts Duke in more than theoretical jeopardy. Rutgers probably went from last team in to first team out. Right now, Carolina and Duke look like the last two in, contingent on two things happening; Albany beating Binghamton in the America East final on Saturday, and Duke beating BU. If Bingo beats the Scoobies, then all bets are off. it might actually be Albany that gets left out in that scenario; its RPI, currently 8, would drop, while a Duke win over BU might give it enough of an RPI boost to jump past Carolina into the number eight seed and a hosting slot (most likely against either Hopkins or Towson if the Tigers win the CAA). And Army could get itself back into the conversation with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday.

Just win, fellas.

[budwom]

I understand what you're saying, paul...the coaches' poll has Duke number six....it would be a travesty to leave us out, but as you say we'd better beat BU...

[MCFinARL]

I understand what you're saying, paul...the coaches' poll has Duke number six...it would be a travesty to leave us out, but as you say we'd better beat BU...

Yes. Eight at large spots, with one already firmly grabbed by Denver, and 4 ACC teams plus 3-4 Big 10 teams (after the AQ) looking to get in, along with a possible Albany if they don't win their AQ. When things are this tight, you don't want to give the committee any reason to drop you, and losing that BU game could definitely be such a reason.

[burnspbesq]

How crazy has this season been? We could see Monmouth, Binghamton, and Providence in the tournament.

If you had said that before the season, you would have been carted off for evaluation.

[burnspbesq]

Interesting that three ACC schools' club teams are in the MCLA tournament field. GaTech is the four seed, while VaTech and FSU are unseeded.

My annual harrumph will follow in due course.

[JasonEvans]

Interesting that three ACC schools' club teams are in the MCLA tournament field. GaTech is the four seed, while VaTech and FSU are unseeded.

My annual harrumph will follow in due course.

Well, seeing as these schools do not give any scholarship money to Lax, I hardly see how their teams should be expected to compete with the Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, and UNCs of the Lax world.

[MCFinARL]

Well, seeing as these schools do not give any scholarship money to Lax, I hardly see how their teams should be expected to compete with the Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, and UNCs of the Lax world.

Sure, although Ivy schools manage to put together fairly competitive teams without scholarship money (possibly their mostly very generous regular financial aid policies help). The scholarship allotment for lacrosse is pretty small anyway.

In any case, a club team moving up to NCAA competition in the ACC would face a real murderer's row even with scholarship money--they'd have to be willing to lose a lot for at least a couple of years.

[duke2x]

Good analysis, burns. I think the margin here is paper thin.

Win--I'll wager 1 M&M that Duke plays Hopkins at a site TBD. Hopkins (8-6) is #7 RPI after losing to OSU again while Duke would be #9 RPI. I believe Duke (then #12 RPI) was seeded ahead of Hop (then about #5 RPI) during the early reveal. Hop has lost 3 games since then. It's not a formal factor, but Duke would be a top 5 team in the polls. (Yes, I think Duke should host over Hop with a win.)

Lose--I would add Hofstra to the bubble because people, TV, and committee members really like small schools. They also beat UNC (8-7) and host the 2nd round games. Duke would be about #13 in the RPI behind BU, UNC, Hofstra, and Rutgers. Again, it's not a formal factor, but Duke probably drops no worse than #8 in the polls with a loss while lower ranked teams in PSU and Hop would host.

BU was pretty even with the top of the Patriot. Duke beat the Patriot champs pretty decisively again earlier this season. I think rust from exams will rear its ugly head and make this game more interesting than we want.

[burnspbesq]

Albany has a 4-0 lead midway through Q1.

[DST Fan]

Albany is up 12-4 at the half.

[MCFinARL]

Albany is up 12-4 at the half.

Now 15-8. It would be really helpful for Albany to win this one.

Elsewhere, cardiac Syracuse doing its think with an 8-7 lead over Colgate in the third period. This is not a game that will affect the tournament one way or another, other than possibly affecting Syracuse's seed if they lose.

[budwom]

I guess Coach D has to tell his kids that essentially they're in a play-in game tomorrow.

[duke2x]

Albany won 20-8. That saves 1 spot for a bubble team. They have no really good wins but can compete with the likes of Maryland and Syracuse.

Air Force beat Richmond to make that loss look a little better. It would not hurt to have most of Duke's schedule make the field if we are truly make the LIFO bubble: Loyola, Air Force, Marquette + the ACC.

[burnspbesq]

Bryant is in with a 5-4 win over Hobart in the NEC final. They will almost certainly be in the play-in game.

Presumably it will come as no surprise to anyone when AF is matched up with Denver in the first round.

[burnspbesq]

Towson is just about in, sitting on a five-goal lead over UMass late in Q4.

ND is off to a quick 3-0 lead on Army.

[Indoor66]

Towson is just about in, sitting on a five-goal lead over UMass late in Q4.

ND is off to a quick 3-0 lead on Army.

Now 4-2 at 13:00 in 2nd

[burnspbesq]

Exams start Monday at BU. i wonder which is worse for a team, just having finished vs. having them looming.

[burnspbesq]

Army 10, ND 9 in OT.

[burnspbesq]

Selection Sunday dawns with seven of the nine AQs claimed by Loyola, Albany, Bryant, Towson, Air Force, Marquette, and Maryland. The Ivy and MAAC championships will be decided today. I like Yale over Brown and Monmouth over Marist.

At-larges? I think if Duke beats BU, it's ND, Cuse, Duke, Carolina, Denver, Ohio State, Penn State, and Hop. I think Rutgers has a legitimate beef, as the Knights Who Say "Yo" have a better overall resume than the Cheaters, but they're going to be rewarded for winning the ACC Tournament.

[budwom]

Selection Sunday dawns with seven of the nine AQs claimed by Loyola, Albany, Bryant, Towson, Air Force, Marquette, and Maryland. The Ivy and MAAC championships will be decided today. I like Yale over Brown and Monmouth over Marist.

At-larges? I think if Duke beats BU, it's ND, Cuse, Duke, Carolina, Denver, Ohio State, Penn State, and Hop. I think Rutgers has a legitimate beef, as the Knights Who Say "Yo" have a better overall resume than the Cheaters, but they're going to be rewarded for winning the ACC Tournament.

Just goes to show how justified the NCAA could be if they chose to expand the field (I don't know, four more teams, maybe eight)? That group vying for an at large berth is filled with lacrosse royalty, some very potent teams.

[burnspbesq]

Monmouth gets the last run in a see-saw game anf holds on to beat Marist, 9-8, in the MAAC final. Great accomplishment for a fourth-year program whose seniors went 0-13 as freshmen.

The play-in game is set. Will it be in Smithfield or West Long Branch?

[MCFinARL]

Albany won 20-8. That saves 1 spot for a bubble team. They have no really good wins but can compete with the likes of Maryland and Syracuse.

Air Force beat Richmond to make that loss look a little better. It would not hurt to have most of Duke's schedule make the field if we are truly make the LIFO bubble: Loyola, Air Force, Marquette + the ACC.

It makes that loss look a little better, but it also makes Duke's win over Richmond look a little worse.


Army 10, ND 9 in OT.

This may hurt Duke's RPI, as the Notre Dame win was Duke's only top 5 RPI win.


Just goes to show how justified the NCAA could be if they chose to expand the field (I don't know, four more teams, maybe eight)? That group vying for an at large berth is filled with lacrosse royalty, some very potent teams.

Yes, it is. But the problem is that there are only 71 Div. 1 men's lacrosse programs--so with a 17-team field, 24% of all teams make the tournament. By comparison, a little under 20% of Div. 1 teams make it into the basketball tournament field (68 of 351 teams). So the NCAA will probably be loath to invest in a bigger tournament until more teams take up the sport.

[duke2x]

Re: Richmond. UNC lost to Richmond. It makes their profile a little worse as well.

Duke is up 6-3 in the 1st.

[DST Fan]

Duke is up 7-3 at the end of the first.

[chrishoke]

7-3 Devils after 1Q. Dominating the X.

[MCFinARL]

Now 8-3 early in the 2nd. It appears Duke learned their lesson from the ND game--no slow start today. Now, hopefully, they can continue to play through three more quarters.

[MCFinARL]

Yale punches their ticket over Brown, with a 10-9 win and a Dylan Molloy shot to force overtime at the end of the game just barely hitting the crossbar.

[burnspbesq]

Yale punches their ticket over Brown, with a 10-9 win and a Dylan Molloy shot to force overtime at the end of the game just barely hitting the crossbar.

Amazing that Brown got a point-blank look for Molloy out of a sideline out-of-bounds play with six seconds left. Yale dodged a bullet on that one.

[duke2x]

It looks like it is 11-3 at half because Gametracker is stuck. That's about the equivalent to a 16-point halftime lead in basketball.

[burnspbesq]

11-3 at the half. No faceoff to start Q3. BU is man-up for 16 seconds; Dunne was called for an illegal body check with 44 seconds in Q2.

Duke had 21 possessions in the half, vs. eight for BU.

[MCFinARL]

Amazing that Brown got a point-blank look for Molloy out of a sideline out-of-bounds play with six seconds left. Yale dodged a bullet on that one.

Yes, agree. They were very lucky.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Please keep the timely updates coming! LGD!

[duke2x]

Gametracker has gone nuts. It shows 12-4 at the half with Duke getting a man-down goal basically at the buzzer. I have to think the 3rd starts soon.

[burnspbesq]

Actually it's 12-4 at the half. The penalty on Dunne is three minutes. BU got a man-up goal, but Brian Smyth won the ensuing faceoff amd took it all the way to score.

[MCFinARL]

What is going on in this game, and/or with the game tracker. According to Duke lax twitter, there was a long delay at 11-3 and then Duke went into half time with that score, but now it is 12-4 (BU got a man-up shot and Duke came right back of the FO), but both of those were apparently in the second quarter?

Now early in the 3rd, twitter says BU got another man up goal for 12-5 Duke.

Was there a weather delay, perhaps, that caused them to take "halftime" before time ran out in the first half?

[burnspbesq]

I hope Dunne got his money's worth on that hit, because BU scored twice. But Quigley restores the lead. It's now Duke first midfield 6, BU 5.

[duke2x]

It's 14-5 midway through the 3rd.

[burnspbesq]

Smyth has taken all the faceoffs for Duke in Q3. He's doing fine, but hopefully the staff is just resting Rowe. Wouldn't want to go into the tournament without him.

[MCFinARL]

Smyth has taken all the faceoffs for Duke in Q3. He's doing fine, but hopefully the staff is just resting Rowe. Wouldn't want to go into the tournament without him.

No indeed. Hopefully just a good chance for Smyth to get some game experience since Rowe is a senior.

[burnspbesq]

Hat trick for Quigley. He now has more goals as a freshman than Myles.

[duke2x]

It's now 17-6 after Gutdering scores. Sporks for everyone. :)

[burnspbesq]

Duke starting to clear the bench. Uppgren in goal. Fourth midfieldgets a run.

[burnspbesq]

And a Jake Seau sighting!

[burnspbesq]

And a faceoff win for Tom Palisi! And a goal for David Gill! And a save for David McGill! Scout team representin'!

18-8 is your final score. Any questions, selection committee?

[duke2x]

Final 18-8. This game will count toward our RPI and about replace someone like UVA (top 30).

The real question in my mind is which team of Duke, Albany, Hop, and PSU is disappointed tonight with a road game. Duke's RPI will be 9 after this game, but it will be top 5 in the polls tomorrow. Albany and PSU have significantly weaker schedules, and Hop's record (8-6) and resume looks way too much like Duke last year. I just see Duke getting the short stick on this one and playing a non-top 10 Big 10 team on the road next weekend.

We could see UNC @ Duke next weekend due to travel rules, but I don't want that. Duke uses a travel spot if it doesn't play a team from Baltimore south.

[MCFinARL]

18-8 final, over a top-20 RPI team. That may help when they are looking at how to deploy the last seed for a home game.

[burnspbesq]

Selection show is at 9:00 EDT on the U.

[burnspbesq]

Final 18-8. This game will count toward our RPI and about replace someone like UVA (top 30).

The real question in my mind is which team of Duke, Albany, Hop, and PSU is disappointed tonight with a road game. Duke's RPI will be 9 after this game, but it will be top 5 in the polls tomorrow. Albany and PSU have significantly weaker schedules, and Hop's record (8-6) and resume looks way too much like Duke last year. I just see Duke getting the short stick on this one and playing a non-top 10 Big 10 team on the road next weekend.

We could see UNC @ Duke next weekend due to travel rules, but I don't want that. Duke uses a travel spot if it doesn't play a team from Baltimore south.

Theoretically, the committe tries to avoid conference rematches in the first round.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Many thinks for the great updates! My errand list was very long today. Couldn't stop to take it all in. Go Duke!!!!
Love, Ima

[burnspbesq]

top half of the bracket:

(1) Maryland vs. Monmouth/Bryant
(8) Albany vs. Carolina
(4) ND vs. Marquette
(5) Denver vs. Air Force

[JasonEvans]

Duke is not one of the top 8 seeds... seems like we got a little bit screwed there, huh?

pic.twitter.com/4jjUgE7mTd

[WiJoe]

In.
Hopkins.
Saturday.

Go Duke !!!!

[Native]

Duke fails to secure a top 8 seed. We'll play our old nemesis, the 6th-seeded Johns Hopkins Blue Jays, at 2:30 on Saturday.

Can't say I'm surprised, especially given our history with Hop. If we can stay out of the sin bin and our defense shows up, we can take 'em.

[fuse]

Duke Hopkins would have been a final four or championship level game in prior years.

Opening round excitement.

[BigWayne]

Duke fails to secure a top 8 seed. We'll play our old nemesis, the 6th-seeded Johns Hopkins Blue Jays, at 2:30 on Saturday.

Can't say I'm surprised, especially given our history with Hop. If we can stay out of the sin bin and our defense shows up, we can take 'em.

Not 100% sure about the way they do this, but looks like Duke is the "last team in." Opportunity for team motivation to prove the rankings wrong.