Duke NBA Draft stuff

[JasonEvans]

Maybe I missed it, but I don't think I saw a collector thread for Duke NBA draft stuff (especially since Frank sorta, kinda declared). There was a lot of chatter about Harry's draft stock in the NBA playoff thread so there is clearly interest in the topic. Thus I am creating a collector thread where we can chat about it.

So, today NBADraft.net updated their 2017 (http://www.nbadraft.net/2017mock_draft)and 2018 mocks (http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft) for the first time in a few weeks. A few items of note:

They've got Tatum going 5th. Fox has moved up to #4 in their mock. He had been down around 7, I think. I think the team that takes Tatum at #5 will be quite pleased with what they get.

The next Dukie off the board is Giles at #18. We had been talking about his stock because there were some mocks that had him in the mid-20s, which I found ridiculous for a player with his potential. Anyway, I just can't see how he falls into the 20s unless the medical reports on him are just disastrous.

Kennard checks in at #23. There has been chatter that he could go in the mid-late teens. I think that's a real possibility because shooting is so so so important in the modern NBA. If he is there when my Hawks pick at #19, I hope we grab him. We need the next Kyle Korver.

Things get really interesting when we look at 2018. NBADraft.net does not have Frank in the 2017 draft. They seem confident he will come back to Duke. In fact, they have him as the 8th pick of the 2018 draft... 8th pick of the second round, that is. Overall, Frank is #38 in 2018. At that level, I sorta wonder if he doesn't stay until his junior year. Hmmmm.

Grayson checks in with a late first round grade for 2018. Allen is the 27th pick of the 2018 draft.

I know a lot of folks seem to think Gary Trent will be at Duke for more than one year, but NBADraft.net has him going with the #7 pick in 2018. Wendell Carter is #12. Potential future Dukies Kevin Knox (#11) and Trevon Duval (#21) are both mid-first rounders. Mo Bamba is #2 (but is seen as unlikely to come to Duke). Meanwhile, Marques Bolden is nowhere to be found... 2019 for him?

-Jason "in the realm of absurdly early, these 2018 projects rank pretty high up on the ridiculous scale... sorry for even mentioning them" Evans

[JasonEvans]

DraftExpress just did an extensive breakdown (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/harry-giles-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5914/)of the strengths and weaknesses of Harry Giles' game. It is worth a read.


Regardless of whether or not his athleticism reverts back to what it once was, Giles has outstanding measurements that should allow him to play the center position with ease if he can find a way to put more bulk on his promising frame. Even without the same quick-twitch and powerful explosiveness that he showcased early on in his career, he's still an agile athlete who is light on his feet and mobile running the floor. There is a distinct possibility that he'll be able to shed the rust he was noticeably saddled with at Duke, and undoubtedly caused him to lose a step, which would elevate him into a different tier of prospect.

his footwork is poor, his ball-handling skills rudimentary, and basketball IQ is not where it needs to be at this stage. Giles plays the game very sped up and struggles to make decisions with the ball in his hands, relegating him strictly to the center position in today's NBA. He doesn't look like someone that is going to be doing much playmaking, as he's not a great passer, he lacks a high skill-level in the post, and doesn't look comfortable facing the basket, with a mechanical stroke that causes defenses to completely sag off him outside of ten feet.

-Jason "Portland, with 3 first rounders, could be a good candidate to take Harry as they will get other assets out of this draft and can wait for him to get more healthy... I see lots of D-League in Harry's 2017-18 future" Evans

[MChambers]

Jason, the second paragraph you excepted pretty well captures my concerns about Harry's game. I just don't see the skill level, especially the shooting, and his defensive awareness was completely lacking. I don't know to what degree those weaknesses can be attributed to rust. Accordingly, I'm pretty skeptical about Harry's ability to be a top level player again, and I don't think I'd take him before pick #20 or so.

[Furniture]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7389&stc=1Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).

Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF1XipwqgMkGSj64GGrrgdhi8H5DyR-I0/

[duke4ever19]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7389&stc=1Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).

Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF1XipwqgMkGSj64GGrrgdhi8H5DyR-I0/

Why is John Collins flipping me off? What did I ever do to him? :confused:

Edit: It looks like he's making the "peace" sign, but his index finger didn't quite get lined up in time.

[JasonEvans]

Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).
Speaking of John Collins, I notice he has been moving up a bit in the mocks. He was mid-late 20s for a while and now seems to be in the mid-teens perhaps even the back of the lottery. He may have been the most skilled big man in the country last year. Of course, the way he scores is not something the NBA seems to value any more so that may really limit his draft stock.


Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too. https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF1XipwqgMkGSj64GGrrgdhi8H5DyR-I0/

Really intrigued with Rasheed prominently wearing a Duke T-shirt in that video. Clearly there is no lasting animosity to the program. Must be tearing Maryland fans apart to see that.

Rasheed played in the DLeague last year. He had a pretty strong second half of the season, averaging 17.1ppg, 4.2 rpg, and 4.0apg in the 14 games after the All-star break. If he really is working hard and improving his game, he could find his way to the NBA this coming season.

-Jason "once a Dukie, always a Dukie" Evans

[Ichabod Drain]

Jason, the second paragraph you excepted pretty well captures my concerns about Harry's game. I just don't see the skill level, especially the shooting, and his defensive awareness was completely lacking. I don't know to what degree those weaknesses can be attributed to rust. Accordingly, I'm pretty skeptical about Harry's ability to be a top level player again, and I don't think I'd take him before pick #20 or so.

Harry missed two full seasons of high school basketball. He missed the pre-season and first eleven games of his only college season. He had two major knee surgeries and one minor operation before he set foot in a college game. I'm not sure what people expected to see from him this year but I can't imagine any player looking good after that.

That said I think Harry still has the potential to be a high level contributor in the NBA. Any team that drafts him should plan on taking it slow and giving him ample time to catch up, get comfortable and stronger.

[Indoor66]

Harry missed two full seasons of high school basketball. He missed the pre-season and first eleven games of his only college season. He had two major knee surgeries and one minor operation before he set foot in a college game. I'm not sure what people expected to see from him this year but I can't imagine any player looking good after that.

That said I think Harry still has the potential to be a high level contributor in the NBA. Any team that drafts him should plan on taking it slow and giving him ample time to catch up, get comfortable and stronger.

That is a whole lot of faith in the performance of a 10th grader....

[Ichabod Drain]

That is a whole lot of faith in the performance of a 10th grader...

11th grader

[MChambers]

11th grader
Plus some serious international play.

[Billy Dat]

Sam Vecenie on Kennard
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/nba-teams-shouldnt-let-bias-cloud-their-view-of-luke-kennard

[MarkD83]

Every year we see more players signed up for the draft than their are available slots in the draft. In addition all of these players are being told they are sure draft picks.

At some point when will the players realize that NBA GMs want more players available than they really need because it makes business sense. Lots of players means a GM for a team above you in the draft is more inclined to make a poor choice so that you can get the player you want.

Even if there is a draft camp to assess players skills, the GMs are only going to be partially honest with the players. They want as many players in the draft as possible and are certainly NOT looking out for the players best interest.

That being said I think all undergraduates should sign up for the draft and put the pressure on the GMs to actually give honest views of everyone's chances.

[Olympic Fan]

11th grader

Yeah, Harry missed his sophomore and seniors year in high school. As a junior, he was universally acclaimed as the best player in a class that included Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith, Josh Jackson and Todd Bridges. The summer after his junior year in high school he played on the USA 19-and-under team -- he was the youngest player on the team ... and maybe the best (Jalen Brunson of Villanova edged Giles for tourney MVP). He led the team in scoring (14.6 ppg) and rebounding (10.4 reb), leading it to the world championship.

THAT is the Harry Giles who was almost universally projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2017 class.

Giles suffered his second ACL that fall (2015). Obviously we never got to see that Harry. The question how if will be every regain the skills that had people comparing him to Chris Webber (I think Danny Manning was a better comp)? He bounced back from his first ACL and made himself the No. 1 player in the class again, barely a year after the injury. He has not bounced back from his second ACL so quickly. But if he does ...

I keep explaining the NBA draft dilemma, which is based on the way the league works. The thing is, the easiest thing to find in the NBA is another good player. The developmental league is loaded with guys who would knock your eyes out. 80 percent of the players in the NBA are basically interchangeable as far as talent goes.

The hardest thing for an NBA team to find is a great player. Those are literally worth their weight in gold.

How does that relate to the draft? It's simple, there are 5-8-10 players every year that project as better than the standard NBA player -- maybe not great, but an upgrade to what they are replacing. And maybe 1-2 have potential to be great. But beyond that upper crust, you are just loading up more standard NBA players (and you have to pay them a lot).

When you get past the crust ... why not gamble on somebody like Giles? The odds may be 1 in 5 that he regains the skills that made him a potentially great player. But those are better odds than, say, Justin Jackson emerging as an NBA all-star. I doubt anybody wastes a top 5 or even top 10 pick on the gamble, but unless the doctors who examine him raise some major red flags, I expect to see him go in the teens ... and maybe fairly early in the teens.

PS One other word of caution -- don't take the mock drafts too seriously. Jonathan Givony, the guy who runs Draft Express (the best of the mocks) is nothing but a fan. He set up his webside in 2003 and he follows the daft with passion, but he's not an insider with connections. Not to rip the site -- it offers a good overview of the draft, but don't take specific rankings too seriously.

PPS And, Mark, it's not the NBA GMs who are lying to the kinds ... the false promises almost always come from agents (or wannabe agents). Plus, the kids themselves are often delusional.

[English]

Sam Vecenie on Kennard
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/nba-teams-shouldnt-let-bias-cloud-their-view-of-luke-kennard

Thoroughly enjoyable--and honest, from my read--breakdown by Vecenie. Pretty funny that, after warning off biases like comparing players with similar skin color, Sam then compares players with similar, um, undergraduate pedigree...Vecenie cites that Luke's best, most recent comp is Duke's own Rodney Hood. Not a bad comp, for sure, but funny to me nonetheless.

[CDu]

Every year we see more players signed up for the draft than their are available slots in the draft. In addition all of these players are being told they are sure draft picks.

At some point when will the players realize that NBA GMs want more players available than they really need because it makes business sense. Lots of players means a GM for a team above you in the draft is more inclined to make a poor choice so that you can get the player you want.

Even if there is a draft camp to assess players skills, the GMs are only going to be partially honest with the players. They want as many players in the draft as possible and are certainly NOT looking out for the players best interest.

That being said I think all undergraduates should sign up for the draft and put the pressure on the GMs to actually give honest views of everyone's chances.

Not all players entering the draft are doing so because of a guarantee. In fact, there are very few guarantees given in any particular year. But that doesn't stop guys from dreaming, and it doesn't stop hangers-on from getting in the ears of guys to encourage their dreaming.

As for the teams, I think they'd actually prefer FEWER early entries. The more a kid plays in college, the better a team is able to assess said kid. And the better they are able to assess said kid, the less risky their draft picks will be. Also, the longer a kid is in college, the less time a team is wasting on physical development under NBA contract.

Early entry is in the player's interest. Delayed entry is in the teams' interest.

[bob blue devil]

The hardest thing for an NBA team to find is a great player. Those are literally worth their weight in gold.

"literally"?

Fact checking time! Avg NBA player weight = 247 pounds. Value of gold = $1241 per ounce. Ounces per pound = 16. 247x1241x16 = $4,904,432 = typical nba player's weight worth in gold. I guess the question remains with respect to how much a star player is worth to the team (after paying him), but $5 mil seems really conservative given the context of getting the player via the draft.

conclusion - agreed!

[Billy Dat]

PS One other word of caution -- don't take the mock drafts too seriously. Jonathan Givony, the guy who runs Draft Express (the best of the mocks) is nothing but a fan. He set up his webside in 2003 and he follows the daft with passion, but he's not an insider with connections. Not to rip the site -- it offers a good overview of the draft, but don't take specific rankings too seriously.

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

[UrinalCake]

Anyway, I just can't see how [Giles] falls into the 20s unless the medical reports on him are just disastrous.


I don't think the medical reports have to be disastrous for him to fall. If they're anything less than perfect, then teams have a reason to be scared away from him. He's a 19 year old kid who has had two major knee surgeries and one minor one. Why waste a pick on him when there are so many other really good players in this draft who also have a ton of upside but do NOT have the same injury history?

I'm very surprised by the 2018 projections, though as you say it is so early that they don't mean a whole lot. I would have expected Frank to be higher than 38. Grayson at 27 sounds about right as of now; I think with a solid season in which he shows his sophomore year form he could climb into the teens. Trent at #7 sounds insanely high from what I've read about him. I've been envisioning him as a multi-year guy who may not have the athleticism required for the next level. And Duval at 21 sounds way low. My take on him was that he was a sure-fire OAD and probable top-5 pick.

[Olympic Fan]

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

Let me get this straight ... you're citing ESPN as an endorsement of Givony's journalistic credentials?

The same ESPN that just dumped every journalist on its payroll and kept all the shills and the showmen?

And you think that "he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections"? Like those people are always upfront and honest about their draft evaluations ... yeah, they share their information with a guy who runs a free webside.

You can believe what you want, but Draft Express has about as much credibility as Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. The closer we get to the draft, the more accurate it becomes (how can anybody project the top picks today, when we don't even know the lottery order?). That doesn't mean it is dispensing inside information.

Let's agree to an experiment. Let's take a snapshot of Draft Express today ... and another on draft day. Then we compare with the actual draft.

[curtis325]

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

Did you really put those bolded words in the same sentence?

[Ichabod Drain]

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

Also Givony personally goes and scouts a ton of college games and even spends time in Europe watching those European players who are a mystery to most of us during the draft. That's more than some GMs do as far as scouting.

[Billy Dat]

Let me get this straight ... you're citing ESPN as an endorsement of Givony's journalistic credentials?

The same ESPN that just dumped every journalist on its payroll and kept all the shills and the showmen?

And you think that "he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections"? Like those people are always upfront and honest about their draft evaluations ... yeah, they share their information with a guy who runs a free webside.

You can believe what you want, but Draft Express has about as much credibility as Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. The closer we get to the draft, the more accurate it becomes (how can anybody project the top picks today, when we don't even know the lottery order?). That doesn't mean it is dispensing inside information.

Let's agree to an experiment. Let's take a snapshot of Draft Express today ... and another on draft day. Then we compare with the actual draft.

I was responding to your portrait of Givony as an unconnected fan, which is far from current truth. Whether or not anyone should believe in draft projections is a different story. While ESPN fired a ton of respected writers, the NBA bloodletting seems to be connected to Wojnarowski's impending arrival.

[CDu]

I was responding to your portrait of Givony as an unconnected fan, which is far from current truth. Whether or not anyone should believe in draft projections is a different story. While ESPN fired a ton of respected writers, the NBA bloodletting seems to be connected to Wojnarowski's impending arrival.

Yup. Givony works for the Vertical with arguably the most connected person in the NBA (Wojnarowski). I think it's safe to say Givony is MUUUUUUUCH more connected than "nothing but a fan." I consider myself a very well-informed fan of the NBA and college basketball. And he's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more informed/connected with the NBA than me (or anyone on this board, for that matter).

As far as whether his mock drafts are accurate right now? Of course they aren't. Nobody's are right now; not even GMs. A lot can change between now and late-June. And a lot can change on draft night, because teams don't know what every other team is going to do until it is done. Not sure why that should relegate Givony to "nothing but a fan." That's a pretty insulting accusation to make for someone who makes his living specifically on his work related to the NBA and NBA draft.

[luvdahops]

Yup. Givony works for the Vertical with arguably the most connected person in the NBA (Wojnarowski). I think it's safe to say Givony is MUUUUUUUCH more connected than "nothing but a fan." I consider myself a very well-informed fan of the NBA and college basketball. And he's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more informed/connected with the NBA than me (or anyone on this board, for that matter).

As far as whether his mock drafts are accurate right now? Of course they aren't. Nobody's are right now; not even GMs. A lot can change between now and late-June. And a lot can change on draft night, because teams don't know what every other team is going to do until it is done. Not sure why that should relegate Givony to "nothing but a fan." That's a pretty insulting accusation to make for someone who makes his living specifically on his work related to the NBA and NBA draft.

I am 100% in agreement with this. I would add that my impression - as an NBA fan with some friends who work for franchises - is that Givony has better connections and sources within the league than Ford (who always oversold his in my view), and also has better insights in terms of scouting individual players.

[Ichabod Drain]

Yup. Givony works for the Vertical with arguably the most connected person in the NBA (Wojnarowski). I think it's safe to say Givony is MUUUUUUUCH more connected than "nothing but a fan." I consider myself a very well-informed fan of the NBA and college basketball. And he's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more informed/connected with the NBA than me (or anyone on this board, for that matter).

As far as whether his mock drafts are accurate right now? Of course they aren't. Nobody's are right now; not even GMs. A lot can change between now and late-June. And a lot can change on draft night, because teams don't know what every other team is going to do until it is done. Not sure why that should relegate Givony to "nothing but a fan." That's a pretty insulting accusation to make for someone who makes his living specifically on his work related to the NBA and NBA draft.

Not only this but Draftexpress provides a plethora of information on players. Even if you didn't agree with his projections you can use all that info (for free) to come up with a conclusion on your own. That's pretty cool.

[Olympic Fan]

Not only this but Draftexpress provides a plethora of information on players. Even if you didn't agree with his projections you can use all that info (for free) to come up with a conclusion on your own. That's pretty cool.

I did say that Draft Express was the best of the mock drafts. And I agree that the site contains some good profiles of potential targets. But my original post was a warning not to take any mock draft too seriously (especially as they keep predicting the draft order before the lottery drawing).

I don't concede that Givony is in any way more qualified than a an average fan as judging or rating talent. He watches a lot of basketball. So what? If you look at his past mock drafts, his accuracy is on a level with Lunardi. In fact, I think that's a good comp for Givony and Draft Express -- Lunardi and Bracketology

I guess we just agree to disagree. Go and continue to see these Mock Drafts as credible information.

We'll check again on draft day and see how accurate Givony is this year.

[CDu]

I did say that Draft Express was the best of the mock drafts. And I agree that the site contains some good profiles of potential targets. But my original post was a warning not to take any mock draft too seriously (especially as they keep predicting the draft order before the lottery drawing).

I don't concede that Givony is in any way more qualified than a an average fan as judging or rating talent. He watches a lot of basketball. So what? If you look at his past mock drafts, his accuracy is on a level with Lunardi. In fact, I think that's a good comp for Givony and Draft Express -- Lunardi and Bracketology

I guess we just agree to disagree. Go and continue to see these Mock Drafts as credible information.

We'll check again on draft day and see how accurate Givony is this year.

Really? You don't concede that a guy whose job is to watch basketball, specifically to research and analyze draft prospects and to talk with NBA front offices about draft prospects is more connected than an average fan? That really is nuts.

Again, that doesn't mean we should take any mock drafts as gospel. As I said: even the GMs couldn't give you an accurate mock draft even on the day of the draft. Mock drafts are just fun approximations. That says NOTHING about how connected Givony is.

Put it this way: you are a journalist, right? Jim Sumner is a journalist, right? Would you not argue that you and Jim are/were more connected on the things you cover than the average fan? I would, and DBR sure does. Well, Givony is a journalist whose full-time job is to cover the NBA draft and all things related to it. He works with the most connected guy in the NBA. If you don't think Givony is more connected then the average fan, then that is a huge insult to the guy's career.

[smvalkyries]

#16 Blue Devil Bob- It doesn't impact your point but Gold is measured in Troy ounces which are only 12 to the pound. We don't want our players agreeing to be paid by the pound thinking they are getting 16 Troy ounces per pound and nowadays they aren't staying long enough for chemistry or econ 101.

[JasonEvans]

I don't think the medical reports have to be disastrous for him to fall. If they're anything less than perfect, then teams have a reason to be scared away from him. He's a 19 year old kid who has had two major knee surgeries and one minor one. Why waste a pick on him when there are so many other really good players in this draft who also have a ton of upside but do NOT have the same injury history?

As I and others have stated, the answer to this querry is that once you get outside the top 10 ormaybe 15, there just aren't that many "really good payers who have a ton of upside" left. There are players who can maybe crack your rotation or perhaps even become a spot starter, but your odds of hitting a future all-star once you get outside the top 8-10 picks are pretty slim. It happens, but is sorta rare.

So, when we look at Harry, I think we can say two things with some degree of certainty: 1) Compared to other guys drafted in the mid-late teens there is a larger than average chance that Harry will never turn into a serviceable pro due to his health... and 2) there is also a larger than average chance that Harry will turn into an all-star.

No GM ever got fired for having a mid-teen draft pick turn into a bust. Any GMs would get huge praise for picking an all-star outside the lottery.

-Jason "I'll say again what I said earlier, there's almost no way Harry lasts beyond pick #20" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

As I and others have stated, the answer to this querry is that once you get outside the top 10 ormaybe 15, there just aren't that many "really good payers who have a ton of upside" left. There are players who can maybe crack your rotation or perhaps even become a spot starter, but your odds of hitting a future all-star once you get outside the top 8-10 picks are pretty slim. It happens, but is sorta rare.

So, when we look at Harry, I think we can say two things with some degree of certainty: 1) Compared to other guys drafted in the mid-late teens there is a larger than average chance that Harry will never turn into a serviceable pro due to his health... and 2) there is also a larger than average chance that Harry will turn into an all-star.

No GM ever got fired for having a mid-teen draft pick turn into a bust. Any GMs would get huge praise for picking an all-star outside the lottery.

-Jason "I'll say again what I said earlier, there's almost no way Harry lasts beyond pick #20" Evans

Care to wager on your signature? I hate betting against Duke players, but I see Harry as a late first round pick. I see him in the 20s (21+ pick). With this deep draft, there are plenty of really good role players. Yes - HG has the opportunity to be a star, but I'm picking Bam or Kennard over Harry any day of the week.

Deep draft + injury issue + 2 years before he's ready to contribute = late draft pick.

[bob blue devil]

#16 Blue Devil Bob- It doesn't impact your point but Gold is measured in Troy ounces which are only 12 to the pound. We don't want our players agreeing to be paid by the pound thinking they are getting 16 Troy ounces per pound and nowadays they aren't staying long enough for chemistry or econ 101.

arghh, yes!!! a pound of feathers is heavier than a pound of gold.

[JasonEvans]

Care to wager on your signature? I hate betting against Duke players, but I see Harry as a late first round pick. I see him in the 20s (21+ pick). With this deep draft, there are plenty of really good role players. Yes - HG has the opportunity to be a star, but I'm picking Bam or Kennard over Harry any day of the week.

Deep draft + injury issue + 2 years before he's ready to contribute = late draft pick.

Yup! Harry goes 20 or sooner and I win, if he goes 21 or later then you win.

My standard DBR wager is that the loser has to sing the praises of the winner for a period of 2 weeks in all posts. Seeing as I am the most frequent poster in the history of the boards, you stand to get a lot of praise if I lose. If I lose, I will even mention your superior knowledge on a DBR podcast as a bonus.

-Jason "sound good, my European friend?" Evans

[kAzE]

Care to wager on your signature? I hate betting against Duke players, but I see Harry as a late first round pick. I see him in the 20s (21+ pick). With this deep draft, there are plenty of really good role players. Yes - HG has the opportunity to be a star, but I'm picking Bam or Kennard over Harry any day of the week.

Deep draft + injury issue + 2 years before he's ready to contribute = late draft pick.

Wow, I would have taken that bet. I think he goes in the 12-18 range. Just out curiosity, who do you have ahead of HG in that range? I would personally take a chance on HG over the likes of Justin Jackson, OG Anunoby, or Ike Anigbogu.

I would be ecstatic if the Bucks got HG at #17.

[CDu]

Wow, I would have taken that bet. I think he goes in the 12-18 range. Just out curiosity, who do you have ahead of HG in that range? I would personally take a chance on HG over the likes of Justin Jackson, OG Anunoby, or Ike Anigbogu.

I would be ecstatic if the Bucks got HG at #17.

As a Bulls fan, I hope he is off the board before that. ;)

[kAzE]

As a Bulls fan, I hope he is off the board before that. ;)

Nah you guys need more shooting, you should take Luke :p

[brevity]

My standard DBR wager is that the loser has to sing the praises of the winner for a period of 2 weeks in all posts. Seeing as I am the most frequent poster in the history of the boards, you stand to get a lot of praise if I lose. If I lose, I will even mention your superior knowledge on a DBR podcast as a bonus.

-Jason "sound good, my European friend?" Evans

Are you incepting us to make a side wager?

20,366 devildeac (5.47 posts per day, 21.48 spork points above replacement)
18,107 OldPhiKap (5.14 PPD, 17.93 SPAR)
16,318 CDu (4.39 PPD, 26.77 SPAR)
15,421 JasonEvans (4.14 PPD, 36.11 SPAR)

If you're counting posts before 2007, are they enough to overcome the above discrepancy of nearly 5,000 posts?

[JasonEvans]

Thon Maker went with the #10 pick in the draft based purely upon what he did in high school... and with rumors running around that he was 22 or 23, not 19.

Some GM who thinks he is smarter than everyone else will take Harry in the teens, maybe sooner. I stand by my belief that Portland, with picks at 15, 20, and 26 will use one of their first two on Harry because taking a guy who probably can't help this year is easier if you get someone else who can help in the same draft. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Sacramento, with picks at #8 and #10 (pending the results of the lottery) could also be interested in Harry, though that would be tougher to justify as this draft appears to have very, very promising players through about 10 or 11.

[CDu]

Nah you guys need more shooting, you should take Luke :p

Oh sure, as if the Bucks need more 6'11" condors...

In all seriousness, Kennard is much more likely a Bulls pick than Giles. They tend to go heavily for the proven college player over the potential guys, and our few "potential" guys have not panned out at all. It has either been a proven college player or a Euro for over a decade now, ever since Paxson took over.

[jv001]

Thon Maker went with the #10 pick in the draft based purely upon what he did in high school... and with rumors running around that he was 22 or 23, not 19.

Some GM who thinks he is smarter than everyone else will take Harry in the teens, maybe sooner. I stand by my belief that Portland, with picks at 15, 20, and 26 will use one of their first two on Harry because taking a guy who probably can't help this year is easier if you get someone else who can help in the same draft. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Sacramento, with picks at #8 and #10 (pending the results of the lottery) could also be interested in Harry, though that would be tougher to justify as this draft appears to have very, very promising players through about 10 or 11.

Jason, do you think Portland might have Greg Oden who they drafted #1 in 2007 in the back of their mind. He was often injured and never played like a first round pick. GoDuke!

Besides Oden, they also took Sam Bowie with the #2 pick in 1984 before MJ and Charles Barkley. GoDuke!

[camion]

Jason, do you think Portland might have Greg Oden who they drafted #1 in 2007 in the back of their mind. He was often injured and never played like a first round pick. GoDuke!

Besides Oden, they also took Sam Bowie with the #2 pick in 1984 before MJ and Charles Barkley. GoDuke!

I can see the trend line there. You make a strong argument for Giles to Portland. :)

[jv001]

I can see the trend line there. You make a strong argument for Giles to Portland. :)

Good catch camion. I hadn't thought of it that way. :cool: Yeh, Harry to Portland. However I think Harry will have a better career than Bowie and Oden. GoDuke!

[devildeac]

Care to wager on your signature? I hate betting against Duke players, but I see Harry as a late first round pick. I see him in the 20s (21+ pick). With this deep draft, there are plenty of really good role players. Yes - HG has the opportunity to be a star, but I'm picking Bam or Kennard over Harry any day of the week.

Deep draft + injury issue + 2 years before he's ready to contribute = late draft pick.

I'm here all week, but, knowing JE's "gambling" history, I'm guessing youze guyz will bet pies or cakes on this one. ;)

[devildeac]

Yup! Harry goes 20 or sooner and I win, if he goes 21 or later then you win.

My standard DBR wager is that the loser has to sing the praises of the winner for a period of 2 weeks in all posts. Seeing as I am one of the most frequent poster in the history of the boards, you stand to get a lot of praise if I lose. If I lose, I will even mention your superior knowledge on a DBR podcast as a bonus.

-Jason "sound good, my European friend?" Evans

I haven't kept current on this thread and I now see JE has already entered the fray :o.


Minor correction to your bold claim. (cough) ;)

[devildeac]

Are you incepting us to make a side wager?

20,366 devildeac (5.47 posts per day, 21.48 spork points above replacement)
18,107 OldPhiKap (5.14 PPD, 17.93 SPAR)
16,318 CDu (4.39 PPD, 26.77 SPAR)
15,421 JasonEvans (4.14 PPD, 36.11 SPAR)

If you're counting posts before 2007, are they enough to overcome the above discrepancy of nearly 5,000 posts?

I see brevity has gone KenPom on JE, too, with his bold statement. :cool:

[Indoor66]

I see brevity has gone KenPom on JE, too, with his bold statement. :cool:

Looks to me like the ole Post-A-Matic has been kicked to the curb... :p:cool:

[JasonEvans]

I see brevity has gone KenPom on JE, too, with his bold statement. :cool:

My bad. I had not checked the total post counts in a while. I clearly got passed in a big way. However, when we converted to the new board from James old SBBS software, he told me I was the #1 poster by many thousands so if we look at the entire history of the DBR, I may still be ahead of you. But that is impossible to quantify at this point, I think.

I sorta feel like I am including ABA numbers in NBA totals, which always felt off to me.

-Jason "what on Earth are 'Spork Points Above Replacement' anyway??" Evans

[devildeac]

My bad. I had not checked the total post counts in a while. I clearly got passed in a big way. However, when we converted to the new board from James old SBBS software, he told me I was the #1 poster by many thousands so if we look at the entire history of the DBR, I may still be ahead of you. But that is impossible to quantify at this point, I think.

I sorta feel like I am including ABA numbers in NBA totals, which always felt off to me.

-Jason "what on Earth are 'Spork Points Above Replacement' anyway??" Evans

No problem at all. I must admit a wee bit of embarrassment actually :o. I didn't post much pre-2007 so you may still be ahead by ABA totals-LOL. I hated the authorization codes :mad:.

There used to be a "link" to check every poster's counts but the "community" totals in table form haven't been available for a few years now. So, if you want to check #s, you have to check each poster's settings or profile.

I think brevity is "funning" us with his/her SPAR stats anyway. Kinda like OBP divided by WAR and then multiplied by 40% of your slugging percentage, adjusted by minutes per day spent on DBR.

:rolleyes:

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yup! Harry goes 20 or sooner and I win, if he goes 21 or later then you win.

My standard DBR wager is that the loser has to sing the praises of the winner for a period of 2 weeks in all posts. Seeing as I am the most frequent poster in the history of the boards, you stand to get a lot of praise if I lose. If I lose, I will even mention your superior knowledge on a DBR podcast as a bonus.

-Jason "sound good, my European friend?" Evans

Sound good, gringo ;).

I hope I'm wrong. Cuz if I am, it's cuz HG is deemed healthy enough by GMs. And that's a great thing.

[brevity]

-Jason "what on Earth are 'Spork Points Above Replacement' anyway??" Evans


I think brevity is "funning" us with his/her SPAR stats anyway. Kinda like OBP divided by WAR and then multiplied by 40% of your slugging percentage, adjusted by minutes per day spent on DBR.

Spork Points are real. Go to Settings in the top right corner, and look for the number next to Latest Comments Received. That number keeps changing even after the 11-spork limit. Unfortunately, it is not made public and can only be accessed by the individual user, because Big DBR doesn't want to differentiate between the merely great and the truly great.

Spork Points Above Replacement is, of course, a made-up stat, or as eye-test proponents would call it, a stat. Like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), SPAR is a unifying statistic that measures a DBR member's total contribution to the boards. I gave OldPhiKap a pretty good SPAR for volume and versatility, devildeac a higher SPAR for expertise in medicine and beer, CDu an even higher SPAR for Main Forum rationality and patience, and JasonEvans the highest SPAR (of the four) for moderator, poll operator, and commissioner duties.

[devildeac]

Spork Points are real. Go to Settings in the top right corner, and look for the number next to Latest Comments Received. That number keeps changing even after the 11-spork limit. Unfortunately, it is not made public and can only be accessed by the individual user, because Big DBR doesn't want to differentiate between the merely great and the truly great.

Spork Points Above Replacement is, of course, a made-up stat, or as eye-test proponents would call it, a stat. Like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), SPAR is a unifying statistic that measures a DBR member's total contribution to the boards. I gave OldPhiKap a pretty good SPAR for volume and versatility, devildeac a higher SPAR for expertise in medicine and beer, CDu an even higher SPAR for Main Forum rationality and patience, and JasonEvans the highest SPAR (of the four) for moderator, poll operator, and commissioner duties.

Amusing/classic stuff, brev.

I'll also ASSume, that in my particular case, you misplaced a couple letters and simply meant grate. :o:rolleyes:

[duke74]

Spork Points are real. Go to Settings in the top right corner, and look for the number next to Latest Comments Received. That number keeps changing even after the 11-spork limit. Unfortunately, it is not made public and can only be accessed by the individual user, because Big DBR doesn't want to differentiate between the merely great and the truly great.

Is there a benchmark or table to compare the number to? Interested in relative v. absolute return, so to speak (not that I expect my total to be anywhere near others here). Just curious.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are you incepting us to make a side wager?

20,366 devildeac (5.47 posts per day, 21.48 spork points above replacement)
18,107 OldPhiKap (5.14 PPD, 17.93 SPAR)
16,318 CDu (4.39 PPD, 26.77 SPAR)
15,421 JasonEvans (4.14 PPD, 36.11 SPAR)

If you're counting posts before 2007, are they enough to overcome the above discrepancy of nearly 5,000 posts?

Thanks for keeping it all in perspective. Here, I thought I was obsessive posting over 4K times.

Anyone with access to the data able to know whether than even cracks the top 20? I feel like it's probably between 10-20.

Can we get a spreadsheet with sortable stats? What's the conversion rate of sporks-to-cinder blocks?

[Indoor66]

Can we get a spreadsheet with sortable stats? What's the conversion rate of sporks-to-cinder blocks?

Be aware that it is a certainty that a pound of Sporks outweigh a pound of cinder blocks by a large margin.

[kAzE]

Spork Points are real. Go to Settings in the top right corner, and look for the number next to Latest Comments Received. That number keeps changing even after the 11-spork limit. Unfortunately, it is not made public and can only be accessed by the individual user, because Big DBR doesn't want to differentiate between the merely great and the truly great.

Spork Points Above Replacement is, of course, a made-up stat, or as eye-test proponents would call it, a stat. Like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), SPAR is a unifying statistic that measures a DBR member's total contribution to the boards. I gave OldPhiKap a pretty good SPAR for volume and versatility, devildeac a higher SPAR for expertise in medicine and beer, CDu an even higher SPAR for Main Forum rationality and patience, and JasonEvans the highest SPAR (of the four) for moderator, poll operator, and commissioner duties.

So, from what I understand, SPAR is a totally subjective metric based on your eye ball test? Or was there an actual mathematical calculation involved?

I propose we use an additional metric: SPP (Sporks per post)

It's simple, you take your spork points and divide by the number of total posts. For me, I have 1561 spork points and 2591 total posts. My SPP is 0.602

[Hingeknocker]

Not to interrupt the entertaining DBRmetrics (pronounced Dabermetrics, like Sabermetrics), but earlier in the thread the overall number of players declaring was brought up, and how it exceeds the number of players who will be drafted at all. While this is true, I think it's more instructive to think about declaring for the NBA Draft as more broad, as in, declaring to be a professional basketball player. This tweet from the NCAA put this into perspective:

https://twitter.com/NCAAResearch/status/859413357459378176

The number of players playing professionally abroad dwarfs the number playing in the NBA, and even still if you include the D-League. Many of these players playing internationally are making a great living, living in great parts of the world. Sure, some players who declare and don't get drafted are disappointed, but I think the vast majority of them have reasonable expectations about where they are going to play professionally.

[dukelifer]

Not to interrupt the entertaining DBRmetrics (pronounced Dabermetrics, like Sabermetrics), but earlier in the thread the overall number of players declaring was brought up, and how it exceeds the number of players who will be drafted at all. While this is true, I think it's more instructive to think about declaring for the NBA Draft as more broad, as in, declaring to be a professional basketball player. This tweet from the NCAA put this into perspective:

https://twitter.com/NCAAResearch/status/859413357459378176

The number of players playing professionally abroad dwarfs the number playing in the NBA, and even still if you include the D-League. Many of these players playing internationally are making a great living, living in great parts of the world. Sure, some players who declare and don't get drafted are disappointed, but I think the vast majority of them have reasonable expectations about where they are going to play professionally.

They probably do better than most minor league baseball players in terms of salaries. Clearly- the dream is to get to the NBA but a few can work their way up the system.

[JasonEvans]

In the past few days, the guys at CBS Sports have updated their 2 NBA mock drafts (http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft) so I thought I would quickly include the Duke results here. The two mock drafters are Howard Megdal and Gary Parrish. Here is how they have some players of note.

HM - Tatum 5, Justin Jackson 10 (waaay too high), Tyler Lydon 13 (no way, too high), Donovan Mitchell 14, Semi Ojeleye 17, Sindarious Thornwell 18 (too high, seems like 2nd rounder to me), John Collins 19, Giles 22 (too low), Kennard 30 (too low)

GP - Tatum 6, Justin Jackson 10 (huh? 10 in both mocks?), Donovan Mitchell 17, John Collins 19, Giles 20, Tyler Lydon 23 (this seems a bit closer to reality), Kennard 24 (still too low), Semi Ojeleye 25

-Jason "if Justin Jackson goes in the lottery, I'll be stunned" Evans

[Duke79UNLV77]

In the past few days, the guys at CBS Sports have updated their 2 NBA mock drafts (http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft) so I thought I would quickly include the Duke results here. The two mock drafters are Howard Megdal and Gary Parrish. Here is how they have some players of note.

HM - Tatum 5, Justin Jackson 10 (waaay too high), Tyler Lydon 13 (no way, too high), Donovan Mitchell 14, Semi Ojeleye 17, Sindarious Thornwell 18 (too high, seems like 2nd rounder to me), John Collins 19, Giles 22 (too low), Kennard 30 (too low)

GP - Tatum 6, Justin Jackson 10 (huh? 10 in both mocks?), Donovan Mitchell 17, John Collins 19, Giles 20, Tyler Lydon 23 (this seems a bit closer to reality), Kennard 24 (still too low), Semi Ojeleye 25

-Jason "if Justin Jackson goes in the lottery, I'll be stunned" Evans

If Kennard is on the first round bubble, rather than a mid-first rounder, then I would second-guess his decision. He's not going to get more athletic, but I thought he could have made a JJ-ish improvement in moving without the ball and getting more aggressive in hunting his shot. I would agree that HM has him too low, but then again NBA teams have increasingly made some surprise Euro picks in the first round to stash salaries abroad. Does anybody have Frank in the first round?

[lotusland]

I don't think Kennard can improve his stock with another year. If NBA is the primary concern, he made the right decision.

[Troublemaker]

If Kennard is on the first round bubble

Luke's not on the first-round bubble. He doesn't declare without knowing for sure that he'll be picked in the first-round via the feedback that Duke and his family obtained from the NBA. (That doesn't mean he won't end up getting picked in the mid-20s, but he WILL be picked in the 1st-round).

[bob blue devil]

Luke's not on the first-round bubble. He doesn't declare without knowing for sure that he'll be picked in the first-round via the feedback that Duke and his family obtained from the NBA. (That doesn't mean he won't end up getting picked in the mid-20s, but he WILL be picked in the 1st-round).

help me understand what information you are basing this assertion on. thanks.

[Troublemaker]

help me understand what information you are basing this assertion on. thanks.

Well, there were a few assertions in there, so you're making me guess. But I'm a good guesser.

There was a story in Luke's local news covering his decision. It's now behind a paywall, but you can still access the following relevant quote from his father through the magic of google: "Everything we've heard is that he is going to go between 15 to 26." (https://www.google.com/#q=%22everything+we've+heard+is+that+he+is+going+t o+go+between+15+to+26%22) That should cover a couple of those assertions.

As for the final assertion that might be bothering you, just know that when I wrote "for sure," I meant more like 99% instead of 100%. Now, it COULD be 100% if a team offered him a guarantee, but I don't have that info.

[bob blue devil]

Well, there were a few assertions in there, so you're making me guess. But I'm a good guesser.

There was a story in Luke's local news covering his decision. It's now behind a paywall, but you can still access the following relevant quote from his father through the magic of google: "Everything we've heard is that he is going to go between 15 to 26." (https://www.google.com/#q=%22everything+we've+heard+is+that+he+is+going+t o+go+between+15+to+26%22) That should cover a couple of those assertions.

As for the final assertion that might be bothering you, just know that when I wrote "for sure," I meant more like 99% instead of 100%. Now, it COULD be 100% if a team offered him a guarantee, but I don't have that info.

i see. thanks.

[ncexnyc]

Luke's not on the first-round bubble. He doesn't declare without knowing for sure that he'll be picked in the first-round via the feedback that Duke and his family obtained from the NBA. (That doesn't mean he won't end up getting picked in the mid-20s, but he WILL be picked in the 1st-round).

Considering how quickly he made up his mind to leave Duke and sign with an agent, I'd say this is pretty much spot on.

[UrinalCake]

Jason "if Justin Jackson goes in the lottery, I'll be stunned" Evans

Yeah, I know I wear dark blue tinted glasses but I don't see NBA star potential in Jackson. He's improved tremendously this past season and his shooting has gotten to the level where everybody expected coming out of high school, but he's still really weak, he can't create shots for himself and he's not a good defender. He's also not a natural shooter and has an awkward falling away form on his jump shot. If I were an NBA a team and had to choose between Jackson and Kennard it would be a no brainer. Kennard is not an elite athlete either but he does have an elite ability to shoot and to score.

[CDu]

Yeah, I know I wear dark blue tinted glasses but I don't see NBA star potential in Jackson. He's improved tremendously this past season and his shooting has gotten to the level where everybody expected coming out of high school, but he's still really weak, he can't create shots for himself and he's not a good defender. He's also not a natural shooter and has an awkward falling away form on his jump shot. If I were an NBA a team and had to choose between Jackson and Kennard it would be a no brainer. Kennard is not an elite athlete either but he does have an elite ability to shoot and to score.

He actually IS a good defender. His perimeter defense in the tourney was a big part of UNC's success. But you are right that he doesn't create his own shot and isn't a consistent jumpshooter.

[kAzE]

He actually IS a good defender. His perimeter defense in the tourney was a big part of UNC's success. But you are right that he doesn't create his own shot and isn't a consistent jumpshooter.

I could see him becoming a poor man's Danny Green. Honestly, he's not THAT good, but the things he is good at are highly coveted in the NBA.

[JasonEvans]

ESPN has a new mock out (at least it showed up on my phone). Here are some notes:


Tatum is #4. It says some teams are thinking of taking him with the #1 pick while others don't even see him as the best SF in the draft.
Giles checks in at #12. ESPN says the upcoming combine will be huge for him. Harry is not going to play, but teams will be able to talk to him and examine his medical records. ESPN says that if Harry's medical situation checks out ok, he could even go in the top 10.
Luke is their #15 pick. ESPN points out there are not many truly great shooters in the draft which is one reason Luke is shooting up the rankings.
Tony Bradley of UNC is in their mock at #20. They say Bradley is probably the highest ranked recruit who plans to play in the 5-on-5 drills. If he shows well, he will get a 1st round guarantee and likely stay in the draft. I'm rooting for him to destroy everyone else on the floor.
Justin Jackson is #25. I commented earlier that CBS, who had him at #10, was insanely high for him. Late first makes a lot more sense to me.
It is worth noting that ESPN does not have Frank in their first round and does not list him among the "next 5" players who are expected to go at the top of the 2nd round.


-Jason "Frank stays, Tony leaves, and Duke guys all go in the top 15... can we please make this mock draft a reality right now!" Evans

[English]

ESPN has a new mock out (at least it showed up on my phone). Here are some notes:


Tatum is #4. It says some teams are thinking of taking him with the #1 pick while others don't even see him as the best SF in the draft.
Giles checks in at #12. ESPN says the upcoming combine will be huge for him. Harry is not going to play, but teams will be able to talk to him and examine his medical records. ESPN says that if Harry's medical situation checks out ok, he could even go in the top 10.
Luke is their #15 pick. ESPN points out there are not many truly great shooters in the draft which is one reason Luke is shooting up the rankings.
Tony Bradley of UNC is in their mock at #20. They say Bradley is probably the highest ranked recruit who plans to play in the 5-on-5 drills. If he shows well, he will get a 1st round guarantee and likely stay in the draft. I'm rooting for him to destroy everyone else on the floor.
Justin Jackson is #25. I commented earlier that CBS, who had him at #10, was insanely high for him. Late first makes a lot more sense to me.
It is worth noting that ESPN does not have Frank in their first round and does not list him among the "next 5" players who are expected to go at the top of the 2nd round.


-Jason "Frank stays, Tony leaves, and Duke guys all go in the top 15... can we please make this mock draft a reality right now!" Evans

Bit of a correction--this is the latest Chad Ford NBA Draft Big Board, in which he ranks the prospects by skill/talent (Insider article). As he describes it:
Heading into this week's NBA draft combine, here's how our top 30 prospects rank, after consultation with NBA scouts and general managers. It isn't actually a mock draft, which would suggest the order that the prospects will be drafted (either how he predicts they go, or how he would draft them were he the GM of every team). Obviously there is more that goes into the GM decision-making than "is this guy better at basketball than that guy" (e.g., team needs, upside vs. ready-made, etc.). Plus, of course, not he nor we know the team draft order yet.

Anywho, agreed, let's make this the draft order and be done with it...welcome back, Frank and bon voyage, Tony.

[KandG]

Detailed summary of Harry Giles' prospects at the next level. A bit hard to read for a Duke fan when you consider what he could have been if not for the knee injuries, but still interesting when considering what his ceiling could be given the very limited minutes he had last season. I'm still torn myself on what his upside on offense will be.

Harry Giles is the 2017 NBA Draft's Biggest Wild Card (http://fansided.com/2017/05/09/harry-giles-2017-nba-draft-gamble-wild-duke/)

[MChambers]

Detailed summary of Harry Giles' prospects at the next level. A bit hard to read for a Duke fan when you consider what he could have been if not for the knee injuries, but still interesting when considering what his ceiling could be given the very limited minutes he had last season. I'm still torn myself on what his upside on offense will be.

Harry Giles is the 2017 NBA Draft's Biggest Wild Card (http://fansided.com/2017/05/09/harry-giles-2017-nba-draft-gamble-wild-duke/)

I think it's a fair summary of Harry's strengths and weaknesses. His lack of refined offensive skills would give me pause as a GM. I know he was rusty, but he never looked comfortable shooting the ball, and shooting is a big part of the game these days.

[Ultrarunner]

Detailed summary of Harry Giles' prospects at the next level. A bit hard to read for a Duke fan when you consider what he could have been if not for the knee injuries, but still interesting when considering what his ceiling could be given the very limited minutes he had last season. I'm still torn myself on what his upside on offense will be.

Harry Giles is the 2017 NBA Draft's Biggest Wild Card (http://fansided.com/2017/05/09/harry-giles-2017-nba-draft-gamble-wild-duke/)

Good article. I think it discounts his shooting ability a bit. He took and hit a couple of jumpers in game competition which is a rarity in the Duke offense for centers. Early in the season, he looked awful as he rushed. I expect the same on the next level until he adapts to the speed of the game. I think the article was spot-on on his rebounding prowess. As he gains experience and confidence, he has the potential to be a dominant rebounder. I simply don't know what to think of Harry's defense. He has some tools to work with, but I don't know if he understands defense in his bones the way a Lance Thomas or Matt Jones did. He could surprise me, and I hope he does.

As for kAzE's SPP metric, I like it. :) 604 posts, 1079 sporks, SPP 1.78.

[superdave]

Tony Bradley of UNC is in their mock at #20. They say Bradley is probably the highest ranked recruit who plans to play in the 5-on-5 drills. If he shows well, he will get a 1st round guarantee and likely stay in the draft. I'm rooting for him to destroy everyone else on the floor.
Justin Jackson is #25. I commented earlier that CBS, who had him at #10, was insanely high for him. Late first makes a lot more sense to me.


Chad Ford sites Justin Jackson's 3-point shooting as an asset. He shot .370 last season which would have been third on Duke and .068 behind Luke Kennard. Jackson as ACC poy remains a joke to anyone who watched the games. Berry was the better player on Unc.

Bradley reminds me of a young Brad Daugherty. Big and plodding but smooth and fundamentally sound.

[tbyers11]

Chad Ford sites Justin Jackson's 3-point shooting as an asset. He shot .370 last season which would have been third on Duke and .068 behind Luke Kennard. Jackson as ACC poy remains a joke to anyone who watched the games. Berry was the better player on Unc.

Bradley reminds me of a young Brad Daugherty. Big and plodding but smooth and fundamentally sound.

Yeah, the only way that Justin Jackson's 3 point shooting was an asset was if you compare in a relative sense to his sophomore year 3 pt% which was 29.2% (35-120). 37% from 3 is decent on that volume (103-280) but not great. For reference, Joel Berry was 38%, Malik Monk was 40% and Luke Kennard was 44%.

Also, from the UVa game on Feb 27th onward (including the reg season victory over Duke and the ACC and NCAA tourney) he was 22-76 for 29%. Take out his 5-8 in the first round NCAA game against TX Southern (which was basically practice) and he was 17-68 for 25%.

[devildeac]

Yeah, the only way that Justin Jackson's 3 point shooting was an asset was if you compare in a relative sense to his sophomore year 3 pt% which was 29.2% (35-120). 37% from 3 is decent on that volume (103-280) but not great. For reference, Joel Berry was 38%, Malik Monk was 40% and Luke Kennard was 44%.

Also, from the UVa game on Feb 27th onward (including the reg season victory over Duke and the ACC and NCAA tourney) he was 22-76 for 29%. Take out his 5-8 in the first round NCAA game against TX Southern (which was basically practice) and he was 17-68 for 25%.

Maybe ol roy can keep him around another year...

:rolleyes:

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe ol roy can keep him around another year...

:rolleyes:

In fairness, don't you kinda wish Duke had another year (or 2) of any of our OADs? I certainly do...

[devildeac]

In fairness, don't you kinda wish Duke had another year (or 2) of any of our OADs? I certainly do...

Of course, but, I'll never miss the opportunity to cast some serious shade in the southerly direction on 15-501. I'd be happiest if the NCAA went the total solar and lunar eclipse route on those lying, cheating vermin at unc.

[English]

In fairness, don't you kinda wish Duke had another year (or 2) of any of our OADs? I certainly do...

Isn't that akin to hoping these young players underperform (at least according to their rankings and expectations)? The unc riffraff isn't sticking around because they're turning down first round draft status to enjoy the weather on the dump another year under Roy. It's because they're not going to be first round picks (and even sometimes that doesn't keep them in town).

Of course, I'd love for a Duke OAD to decide, rather than be a top-14 (or top-30) pick in the NBA draft, he'd like to continue his education as part of a great program, but that's not what's happening down the road.

[sagegrouse]

Of course, but, I'll never miss the opportunity to cast some serious shade in the southerly direction on 15-501. I'd be happiest if the NCAA went the total solar and lunar eclipse route on those lying, cheating vermin at unc.

I am expecting sometime in my lifetime that the NCAA will lower the boom on UNC -- and the noise from the impact will cause debris to fall on the Duke campus.

Until then, however, I am not gonna join Jason and others in denigrating the chances of the UNC basketball team. The Heels have done much better than I expected the past two seasons, and I don't wanna feed the weauxf gods any more morsels.

[BD80]

...

Bradley reminds me of a young Brad Daugherty. Big and plodding but smooth and fundamentally sound.

Smoothly plodding around the court?

[fidel]

Are you incepting us to make a side wager?

20,366 devildeac (5.47 posts per day, 21.48 spork points above replacement)
18,107 OldPhiKap (5.14 PPD, 17.93 SPAR)
16,318 CDu (4.39 PPD, 26.77 SPAR)
15,421 JasonEvans (4.14 PPD, 36.11 SPAR)

If you're counting posts before 2007, are they enough to overcome the above discrepancy of nearly 5,000 posts?

That's a lot of beer.

[JasonEvans]

As mentioned in the Frank Jackson thread (by Oly Fan), Chad Ford has now confirmed that UNC's Tony Bradley has elected not to participate in 5-on-5 drills at the NBA draft combine. The only guys who pass up the 5-on-5s are guys who feel comfortable about their draft position and don't want to be seen as trying out against lesser prospects. Basically, if you are sure you are going to be taken in the first round, you don't play in the 5-on-5s.

Until now, Bradley had been seen as a guy on the fence, who might come back to Carolina (he would likely be the best big man on the team and probably its second best player). But, the fact that he is skipping the 5-on-5s seems to indicate he has made up his mind and is staying in the draft. I guess there is a slim chance he could decide to come back to Carolina, but the odds seem very, very small at this point.

-Jason "Frank Jackson is doing the 5-on-5s... his team features a bunch of SGs trying to convert into PGs like Tyler Dorsey, PJ Dozier, and Davon Reed" Evans

[devildeac]

That's a lot of beer.

Amusing. I'd like to see brevity try to correlate that with IBUs and/or ABV :p:rolleyes:.

[rasputin]

Amusing. I'd like to see brevity try to correlate that with IBUs and/or ABV :p:rolleyes:.

Cinder blocks?

[devildeac]

Cinder blocks?

Likely can't correlate w/SPAR. ;)

[Olympic Fan]

I can't find anything posted yet, but after watching the first hour of the draft combine coverage on ESPN2:

-- Harry Giles (who is not playing in the scrimmage) looked good in drills. He's wearing a much smaller brace (actually more of a rubber sleeve) on his knees. They showed him in the lateral drills and he looked good, but they didn't post any numbers. In the standing vertical leap, he tied for second with Cal's Ivan Rabb. The only guy to beat them was UNC's Tony Bradley.

-- The scrimmages are terrible to watch. First, the play looks like a McDonald's All-America game -- disjointed and with players looking to make spectacular plays rather than simple, fundamental plays. Second, ESPN's commentators are no help in identifying what's happening on the court as they are blathering about something else all the time. I only watched a ittle over a half, but I can't imagine anybody in this game moving into the first round based on this performance (Frank Jackson's team was not playing).

[elvis14]

As mentioned in the Frank Jackson thread (by Oly Fan), Chad Ford has now confirmed that UNC's Tony Bradley has elected not to participate in 5-on-5 drills at the NBA draft combine. The only guys who pass up the 5-on-5s are guys who feel comfortable about their draft position and don't want to be seen as trying out against lesser prospects. Basically, if you are sure you are going to be taken in the first round, you don't play in the 5-on-5s.

Until now, Bradley had been seen as a guy on the fence, who might come back to Carolina (he would likely be the best big man on the team and probably its second best player). But, the fact that he is skipping the 5-on-5s seems to indicate he has made up his mind and is staying in the draft. I guess there is a slim chance he could decide to come back to Carolina, but the odds seem very, very small at this point.

-Jason "Frank Jackson is doing the 5-on-5s... his team features a bunch of SGs trying to convert into PGs like Tyler Dorsey, PJ Dozier, and Davon Reed" Evans

This Bradley situation is interesting. The only thing that matters to me in the Bradley situation is that whatever he does do the most to UNCheat. If he leaves for the NBA it will hurt The Cheaters the next couple of seasons since they won't have him in their lineup. On the other hand, it could help Cheater U if Bradley stays in the draft and gets drafted because UNCantRead has a reputation for holding players back and not getting them to the NBA early. If he stays a Tarcheat, then they are better than I want them to be next season (of course, I want them to lose every game 82-50). But if he stays, the University of Nothing but Cheaters continues to be a place where One and Done (or even Two and through) talent avoid and as their older players leave and get backfilled by lesser talent their recruiting woes (well earned because they cheated) finally catch up with them.

So either way there's a silver lining (things are worse for them) or an unfortunate side effect (things are better for them).

Frank Jackson should just knock it off and come back to school for his sophomore season :-)

[rasputin]

I can't find anything posted yet, but after watching the first hour of the draft combine coverage on ESPN2:

-- Harry Giles (who is not playing in the scrimmage) looked good in drills. He's wearing a much smaller brace (actually more of a rubber sleeve) on his knees. They showed him in the lateral drills and he looked good, but they didn't post any numbers. In the standing vertical leap, he tied for second with Cal's Ivan Rabb. The only guy to beat them was UNC's Tony Bradley.

-- The scrimmages are terrible to watch. First, the play looks like a McDonald's All-America game -- disjointed and with players looking to make spectacular plays rather than simple, fundamental plays. Second, ESPN's commentators are no help in identifying what's happening on the court as they are blathering about something else all the time. I only watched a ittle over a half, but I can't imagine anybody in this game moving into the first round based on this performance (Frank Jackson's team was not playing).
Your description of the scrimmage sounds more to me like an NBA game, with Dick Vitale announcing.

[Olympic Fan]

Your description of the scrimmage sounds more to me like an NBA game, with Dick Vitale announcing.

Not nearly as organized as am NBA game ... and Dick Vitale would provided three hundred times the commentary on what's happening in the floor in front of him.

[Furniture]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862748186724749313/video/1
and here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862747548305543168/video/1
here too..
https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862762448373284864/video/1

[flyingdutchdevil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862748186724749313/video/1
and here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862747548305543168/video/1
here too..
https://mobile.twitter.com/NBADraft/status/862762448373284864/video/1

Jesus. What might have been...

[JasonEvans]

FlyingDutchDevil, you are going to lose our bet in a big big big way. Based on his freakish athletic results today, NBA GMs are going to be terrified to pass on Harry. He's probably looking at late lottery at this point.

Jason "I should have wagered a pie... like I did with Wheat... mmmmm" Evans

[UrinalCake]

Palace Pistons‏ @PalaceOfPistons 7h 7 hours ago
UNC SF Justin Jackson says he "thinks" he has a meeting with the #Pistons at the #NBACombine tomorrow, per @Keith_Langlois.


What more can you expect from a program where players never have to go to class?

[Indoor66]

What more can you expect from a program where players never have to go to class?

Well, they do THINK they go to class over there. :p:rolleyes::cool:

[budwom]

FlyingDutchDevil, you are going to lose our bet in a big big big way. Based on his freakish athletic results today, NBA GMs are going to be terrified to pass on Harry. He's probably looking at late lottery at this point.

Jason "I should have wagered a pie... like I did with Wheat... mmmmm" Evans

Huh. Based on what's happened so far, updated DraftExpress has Harry at #27 going to the Nyets, hardly a lottery pick....but Harry is something of a unique case here....but I really don't think he's wowing anyone at this point.

[flyingdutchdevil]

FlyingDutchDevil, you are going to lose our bet in a big big big way. Based on his freakish athletic results today, NBA GMs are going to be terrified to pass on Harry. He's probably looking at late lottery at this point.

Jason "I should have wagered a pie... like I did with Wheat... mmmmm" Evans

Yeah...I'm pretty sure I'll lose on pick #19 or something like that.

And you most certainly should have bet higher. Pie, beer....so much better than singing your praises! ;)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Huh. Based on what's happened so far, updated DraftExpress has Harry at #27 going to the Nyets, hardly a lottery pick...but Harry is something of a unique case here...but I really don't think he's wowing anyone at this point.

He could go #15...and he could go #27. Nothing would surprise me with Giles. He is the ultimate enigma.

[budwom]

He could go #15...and he could go #27. Nothing would surprise me with Giles. He is the ultimate enigma.

Agreed...just not sure why Jason is spiking the proverbial basketball at this point....

[JasonEvans]

Agreed...just not sure why Jason is spiking the proverbial basketball at this point...

Well, all the reports out of yesterday show Harry with incredible athleticism and measurables. He is clearly one of the quickest and most explosive athletes in the draft and the results would seem to alleviate fears that his injuries have taken away some of his athleticism. I'm telling you, yesterday was a good day for his draft stock (and his stock was already mid-late teens).

-Jason "I should have bet a bottle of single malt scotch... or a pie" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, all the reports out of yesterday show Harry with incredible athleticism and measurables. He is clearly one of the quickest and most explosive athletes in the draft and the results would seem to alleviate fears that his injuries have taken away some of his athleticism. I'm telling you, yesterday was a good day for his draft stock (and his stock was already mid-late teens).

-Jason "I should have bet a bottle of single malt scotch... or a pie" Evans

I too agree with you that Harry helped himself. That explosion/athleticism was non-existent at Duke. Goes to show that ACL surgeries require a crap ton of time to recover from, especially if you are a teenager with two torn ACLs.

I'm fully confident that I will lose this bet, but I ain't singing your praises just yet. Quite the opposite really - how could you not have extracted more from me? I was 100% confident that Harry would go after 20. You could have gotten a pie, a bottle of scotch, or a weekly 6-pack of beer for the next year. Hell, you could have gotten me to never post on DBR again if you wanted (and I'm sure some folks feel that way)!

:D

[CDu]

I too agree with you that Harry helped himself. That explosion/athleticism was non-existent at Duke. Goes to show that ACL surgeries require a crap ton of time to recover from, especially if you are a teenager with two torn ACLs.

I'm fully confident that I will lose this bet, but I ain't singing your praises just yet. Quite the opposite really - how could you not have extracted more from me? I was 100% confident that Harry would go after 20. You could have gotten a pie, a bottle of scotch, or a weekly 6-pack of beer for the next year. Hell, you could have gotten me to never post on DBR again if you wanted (and I'm sure some folks feel that way)!

:D

I suspect he had that athleticism during the season last year. Those strength/agility tests don't test what the real problem is following an ACL tear. It isn't so much the challenge of being able to cut laterally or sprint or jump. Those are back within 8-10 months. It's being confident and able to react and change directions unexpectedly instinctually that takes time.

That's actually also an issue with the testing that is a failure of the system, not just related to ACL repairs. They don't really test "functional athleticism". Straight-line sprints, jumping, shuttle runs, and lane agility drills test athleticism in a static setting: you know exactly what you have to do, and information is not changing. But basketball (and sports in general) require athleticism in a dynamic setting. The needs are constantly changing. And these tests just can't capture that.

It's why a guy like Doug McDermott could show reasonably athletic measurables, but look completely unathletic on a basketball court: he simply doesn't seem to have good reflex athleticism.

It remains to be seen whether Giles has regained his functional athleticism. I suspect that it didn't suddenly reappear just a month or two after the season ended. I think that it probably still isn't there, and that his testing in a static setting was probably similar to what he would have done had he been given the same tests during the season at Duke.

[devildeac]

I too agree with you that Harry helped himself. That explosion/athleticism was non-existent at Duke. Goes to show that ACL surgeries require a crap ton of time to recover from, especially if you are a teenager with two torn ACLs.

I'm fully confident that I will lose this bet, but I ain't singing your praises just yet. Quite the opposite really - how could you not have extracted more from me? I was 100% confident that Harry would go after 20. You could have gotten a pie, a bottle of scotch, or a weekly 6-pack of beer for the next year. Hell, you could have gotten me to never post on DBR again if you wanted (and I'm sure some folks feel that way)!

:D

FDD never posting again? No way!

Having me select a 6er a week for a year? I'm in. I'm definitely getting a commission on that one though. :o

[budwom]

FlyingDutchDevil, you are going to lose our bet in a big big big way. Based on his freakish athletic results today, NBA GMs are going to be terrified to pass on Harry. He's probably looking at late lottery at this point.

Jason "I should have wagered a pie... like I did with Wheat... mmmmm" Evans

what are the specifics of your bet, Jason?

[JasonEvans]

what are the specifics of your bet, Jason?

If Harry goes 20 or earlier in the draft, I win. If he goes after 20 FDD wins. The loser must post frequently on the DBR singing the praises of the winner. FDD is right, I should have wagered something more substantial.

ESPN (insider stuff, so I won't quote it directly) says there are multiple GMs who are very eager to hear what their docs say about Harry. If the team medical experts sign off on it, Harry could very easily go in the top 10.

-Jason "a NBA GM reaching for a guy who COULD be a star is nothing new" Evans

[Reilly]

... Jason "I should have wagered a pie... like I did with Wheat... mmmmm" ...

You've seen "The Help"?

[dukelifer]

Well, all the reports out of yesterday show Harry with incredible athleticism and measurables. He is clearly one of the quickest and most explosive athletes in the draft and the results would seem to alleviate fears that his injuries have taken away some of his athleticism. I'm telling you, yesterday was a good day for his draft stock (and his stock was already mid-late teens).

-Jason "I should have bet a bottle of single malt scotch... or a pie" Evans

A question we may never answer is whether Giles was being extremely careful while at Duke- playing below his full abilities to get to this point now, where he will be drafted. Cannot blame him if the case. Much will depend of what the docs have to say. I don't expect Giles to have a long career- so any career is better than none.

[sagegrouse]

A question we may never answer is whether Giles was being extremely careful while at Duke- playing below his full abilities to get to this point now, where he will be drafted. Cannot blame him if the case. Much will depend of what the docs have to say. I don't expect Giles to have a long career- so any career is better than none.

Pain, weakness, lack of confidence with the injured joints --none of these merit the judgment "playing below his full abilities" or even "being extremely careful." Kid was injured -- by the end of the season he was playing pretty darned well. The other factor, of course, is that Harry had been out of basketball since his junior year in HS and was really rusty.

[Furniture]

Harry: 5.2% body fat, 232 lbs., 6'10, 7'3 wingspan, largest hands in draft, 32'' vertical, runs 3/4 court sprint faster than Isaiah Hicks...

Luke: all he did was get measured, no vert, 6.6% body fat

Frank: 42'' vertical. fast sprint, second best measures in both.

Jayson: did not attend.

[dukelifer]

Pain, weakness, lack of confidence with the injured joints --none of these merit the judgment "playing below his full abilities" or even "being extremely careful." Kid was injured -- by the end of the season he was playing pretty darned well. The other factor, of course, is that Harry had been out of basketball since his junior year in HS and was really rusty.

He had a few moments but at the end of the year in his last 3 games he had 4,0,0 points. He showed himself to be a solid rebounder all year but never was dominant on the offensive end- even against inferior competition. His combine performance shows his freakish athleticism- but he has far to go to play at the highest level of the sport.