Way-Too-Early Duke Rotation Discussion for 2017/18

[DukeTrinity11]

Here's how I see things shaking for this upcoming season assuming Duke lands Duval:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (10 mins)/Gary Trent (20 mins)/Jack White (10 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (25-30 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (10-15 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Antonio Vrankovic (10-15 mins)

Getting Kevin Knox would remove Jack White and Javin DeLaurier entirely from the rotation since he would play at least 20-25 minutes I would imagine interchanging at the 3 or 4 spot.

Getting Mohammed Bamba would remove Antonio Vrankovic entirely from the rotation and shave 10 minutes away from Bolden's playing time.

I'm no Coach K but how does this look to the DBR faithful? :D

[pfrduke]

Here's how I see things shaking for this upcoming season assuming Duke lands Duval:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (10 mins)/Gary Trent (20 mins)/Jack White (10 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (25-30 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (10-15 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Antonio Vrankovic (10-15 mins)

Getting Kevin Knox would remove Jack White and Javin DeLaurier entirely from the rotation since he would play at least 20-25 minutes I would imagine interchanging at the 3 or 4 spot.

Getting Mohammed Bamba would remove Antonio Vrankovic entirely from the rotation and shave 10 minutes away from Bolden's playing time.

I'm no Coach K but how does this look to the DBR faithful? :D

Ain't no way a healthy Grayson Allen only plays 30 mpg.

[JasonEvans]

This just seems really premature seeing as we don't know about Duval, Knox, Bamba, or other potential recruits. Are you sooooo dying to share your opinion on this that you can't wait a few weeks until we are actually dealing with known instead of unknown factors?

Also, you have 9 guys getting 10+ minutes per game (and no one getting more than 30)... I think it has been a decade or more since that happened at Duke.

[Indoor66]

Ain't no way a healthy Grayson Allen only plays 30 mpg.

Agree - he will be on the court 35+ minutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This just seems really premature seeing as we don't know about Duval, Knox, Bamba, or other potential recruits. Are you sooooo dying to share your opinion on this that you can't wait a few weeks until we are actually dealing with known instead of unknown factors?

Would you rather have minute discussions hijack other threads? Although premature, I think this is smart to have a dedicated thread.

[CDu]

Would you rather have minute discussions hijack other threads? Although premature, I think this is smart to have a dedicated threat.

Well, it's always a dedicated threat.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, it's always a dedicated threat.

Damn! Didn't change it in time for someone to respond! ;)

[OldPhiKap]

This just seems really premature seeing as we don't know about Duval, Knox, Bamba, or other potential recruits. Are you sooooo dying to share your opinion on this that you can't wait a few weeks until we are actually dealing with known instead of unknown factors?

Also, you have 9 guys getting 10+ minutes per game... I think it has been a decade or more since that happened at Duke.


Would you rather have minute discussions hijack other threads? Although premature, I think this is smart to have a dedicated thread.

Perhaps, but I'd suggest we have a different thread once we know the roster. Not that one brand of speculation is better than the other, but it's hard to really discuss the matter with three "if we gets" in play. And once we know what the roster is, we can drop however much accumulated early speculation that this thread draws.

But that's just one man's opinion.

(I fall in the "this is premature" camp, but it's not for me to tell people what they should or should not discuss here).

[JasonEvans]

Would you rather have minute discussions hijack other threads? Although premature, I think this is smart to have a dedicated thread.

I'd rather talk about it with at least some sense of certainty. But, I get that others are all eager to guess without knowing all the facts. Whatever...

Anyone want to chat about who turns pro next season or the seedings for the 2018 NCAA tourney? I think Duke gets the South region in 2018, though I know some of you expect we will be in the East.

[TKG]

Yeah, but, Daymon and Shavlik look really good in pickups...

[jimsumner]

I'm with Jason on this. Too many unknowns at this point to have a rational discussion.

[atoomer0881]

I'm with Jason on this. Too many unknowns at this point to have a rational discussion.

Yea I agree. As eager as I am to discuss next year's rotation and roster, I'm also a firm believer in jinxes and superstitions (because surely, little old me affects the decisions and outcomes of college players and games). And I just know the moment I start talking about how many minutes Duval is going to be playing next year, is the moment he decides to play those minutes elsewhere. And I really don't want that.

[MChambers]

I'd rather talk about it with at least some sense of certainty. But, I get that others are all eager to guess without knowing all the facts. Whatever...
It's not like anyone here gets the playing time correct, even when we know who's on the roster. Might as well guess now.

I'm just going to guess this is the year K plays 10 guys at least 15 minutes! ;)

[lotusland]

Yeah, but, Daymon and Shavlik look really good in pickups...

Yeah don't sleep on that Daymon kid. He's for realz!

[duke74]

Not to discourage the discourse, but ...

[TKG]

Yeah don't sleep on that Daymon kid. He's for realz!

My apologies to Taymon.....

[Newton_14]

I'm with Jason on this. Too many unknowns at this point to have a rational discussion.

Agree. Me too. We need to wait until the roster is final imo.

My two cents

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It ain't like there's anything else going on but speculation this time of year anyway...

[Troublemaker]

Here's how I see things shaking for this upcoming season assuming Duke lands Duval:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (10 mins)/Gary Trent (20 mins)/Jack White (10 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (25-30 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (10-15 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Antonio Vrankovic (10-15 mins)

Getting Kevin Knox would remove Jack White and Javin DeLaurier entirely from the rotation since he would play at least 20-25 minutes I would imagine interchanging at the 3 or 4 spot.

Getting Mohammed Bamba would remove Antonio Vrankovic entirely from the rotation and shave 10 minutes away from Bolden's playing time.

I'm no Coach K but how does this look to the DBR faithful? :D

Well, one thing right off the bat -- while we're deciding whether we want to discuss this or not -- is that Wendell is very likely going to be the center when Marques is out of the game.

I can believe that Duke will start Wendell at PF, but I can't believe he won't play ANY center. Nor would I desire that since he's 6'10" 260-lbs.

[JasonEvans]

As OPK noted upthread, once we have more roster certainty, the mods will close threads like this one and open one in which we can have a more definitive and knowledgeable conversation. That said, if folks want to speculate here, that is perfectly fine. I don't, however, think we need to keep going with talk about whether this thread makes sense or not. Many have voiced an opinion and I think continuing to discuss that fact is a waste of time and energy.

Just my $.02

-Jason "once we know the roster, I look forward to a robust conversation about minutes with folks who look at historical trends and other factors to come up with reasonable expectations" Evans

[CDu]

Well, one thing right off the bat -- while we're deciding whether we want to discuss this or not -- is that Wendell is very likely going to be the center when Marques is out of the game.

I can believe that Duke will start Wendell at PF, but I can't believe he won't play ANY center. Nor would I desire that.

Yeah, with the assumption that Jackson stays and Duval goes, it's more likely to look like this:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15-20), Trent (20-25), O'Connell/White (0-5)
PF: Carter (15-20), DeLaurier (15-20), Trent/White (0-5)
C: Bolden (~25), Carter (~10), Vrankovic (~5)

Unless of course DeLaurier isn't up to the challenge of stepping into a significant role next year, in which case we'd probably see more of Trent and Carter at PF and more of Vrankovic at C.

But, I concur that there are still a lot of moving parts. Jackson isn't officially back, Duval hasn't decided, nor have Bamba or Knox or Smith.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yeah, with the assumption that Jackson stays and Duval goes, it's more likely to look like this:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15-20), Trent (20-25), O'Connell/White (0-5)
PF: Carter (15-20), DeLaurier (15-20), Trent/White (0-5)
C: Bolden (~25), Carter (~10), Vrankovic (~5)

Unless of course DeLaurier isn't up to the challenge of stepping into a significant role next year, in which case we'd probably see more of Trent and Carter at PF and more of Vrankovic at C.

But, I concur that there are still a lot of moving parts. Jackson isn't officially back, Duval hasn't decided, nor have Bamba or Knox or Smith.

Jackson isn't officially back? I could swear that there's a "Jackson is back" thread. Are we all waiting for confirmation of the confirmation after this already strange off season?

[kAzE]

Yeah, with the assumption that Jackson stays and Duval goes, it's more likely to look like this:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15-20), Trent (20-25), O'Connell/White (0-5)
PF: Carter (15-20), DeLaurier (15-20), Trent/White (0-5)
C: Bolden (~25), Carter (~10), Vrankovic (~5)

Unless of course DeLaurier isn't up to the challenge of stepping into a significant role next year, in which case we'd probably see more of Trent and Carter at PF and more of Vrankovic at C.

But, I concur that there are still a lot of moving parts. Jackson isn't officially back, Duval hasn't decided, nor have Bamba or Knox or Smith.

So I guess you're assuming that we get Duval, but not Knox? I do like your rotation a lot if that's the case.

But personally, I think we get both of those guys, and I like this rotation:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15-20), Knox (5-10)
PF: Knox (20), DeLaurier (10-15), Carter (5-10)
C: Carter (15-20), Bolden (20-25)

Yes, I'm aware that's a 9 player rotation, and 1 of these guys is extremely likely to get left out. I just don't know who that will be yet. I think the most likely candidates could be Trent or DeLaurier. (Probably DeLaurier if we get Knox, but I'm expecting a big leap for Javin this year, so who knows?)

[DukeTrinity11]

Aren't the point of message boards to foster meaningful discussion/speculation about a specific topic, in this case Duke Basketball?

I included Duval in the playing time rotation since he seems the most likely out of the 3-4 remaining moving parts to commit to Duke. Obviously there are no sure things as Prince Harry showed us back in 2010 but luckily if he doesn't end up coming here, then we can just move on and talk about the lineup/rotation without him.

On second glance, I agree that Grayson will play closer to 35 mins next year much like Luke Kennard did this year. Also, I agree that Carter will spend some time at the 5 which for some reason flew over my head when making the initial prediction. With these modifications, this probably pushes White and Vrankovic out of the rotation for now.

Revised:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (15 mins)/Gary Trent (25 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (20 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (20 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Wendell Carter (10-15 mins)

As much as I'd love to see White and Vrankovic get meaningful playing time next year, its going to be tough given how tight Coach K's rotations tend to be especially as we get later in the year.

I do think if we happen to get Knox, he"ll cut in Trent and DeLaurier's minutes and probably play 20-25 minutes based on past history with a recruit ranked as high as he is in RSCI and how Coach K tends to use his NBA SFs as stretch 4s.

[DukeTrinity11]

So I guess you're assuming that we get Duval, but not Knox? I do like your rotation a lot if that's the case.

But personally, I think we get both of those guys, and I like this rotation:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15-20), Knox (5-10)
PF: Knox (20), DeLaurier (10-15), Carter (5-10)
C: Carter (15-20), Bolden (20-25)

Yes, I'm aware that's a 9 player rotation, and 1 of these guys is extremely likely to get left out. I just don't know who that will be yet. I think the most likely candidates could be Trent or DeLaurier. (Probably DeLaurier if we get Knox, but I'm expecting a big leap for Javin this year, so who knows?)
I agree that we will get Knox too in all likelihood. I'm not sure he"ll play as much as Tatum, Ingram, Winslow or Parker did since I don't think he's as skilled at this point as those guys based on scouting reports and his performance in the HS All-Star games.

[CDu]

So I guess you're assuming that we get Duval, but not Knox? I do like your rotation a lot if that's the case.

But personally, I think we get both of those guys, and I like this rotation:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15-20), Knox (5-10)
PF: Knox (20), DeLaurier (10-15), Carter (5-10)
C: Carter (15-20), Bolden (20-25)

Yes, I'm aware that's a 9 player rotation, and 1 of these guys is extremely likely to get left out. I just don't know who that will be yet. I think the most likely candidates could be Trent or DeLaurier. (Probably DeLaurier if we get Knox, but I'm expecting a big leap for Javin this year, so who knows?)

Yes, I was taking a quite literal interpretation of the original post, which just specified Duval and Jackson (and didn't have Knox in the rotation).

Also, that's not a 9-man rotation. It's an 8-man rotation: Duval, Jackson, Allen, Trent, Knox, DeLaurier, Carter, Bolden, with the 8th man getting just 10-15 minutes per game. Though in that scenario, I'd be surprised to see Knox playing any SF minutes. He's less of a SF than Tatum was, and Tatum didn't play much SF at all this year.

[DukeTrinity11]

Yea I agree. As eager as I am to discuss next year's rotation and roster, I'm also a firm believer in jinxes and superstitions (because surely, little old me affects the decisions and outcomes of college players and games). And I just know the moment I start talking about how many minutes Duval is going to be playing next year, is the moment he decides to play those minutes elsewhere. And I really don't want that.
It just shows you how everyone is different because I couldn't disagree more! ;)

Part of the fun of being a fan for me is the ability to be an eternal optimist and speculate about things like lineups and playing time in the offseason when there are still moving parts around. Oh the possibilities!

I've never understood how people cling on to jinxes and superstitions. The idea of our message board discussion having an impact on Duval or Knox coming here is preposterous.

[jv001]

Aren't the point of message boards to foster meaningful discussion/speculation about a specific topic, in this case Duke Basketball?

I included Duval in the playing time rotation since he seems the most likely out of the 3-4 remaining moving parts to commit to Duke. Obviously there are no sure things as Prince Harry showed us back in 2010 but luckily if he doesn't end up coming here, then we can just move on and talk about the lineup/rotation without him.

On second glance, I agree that Grayson will play closer to 35 mins next year much like Luke Kennard did this year. Also, I agree that Carter will spend some time at the 5 which for some reason flew over my head when making the initial prediction. With these modifications, this probably pushes White and Vrankovic out of the rotation for now.

Revised:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (15 mins)/Gary Trent (25 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (20 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (20 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Wendell Carter (10-15 mins)

As much as I'd love to see White and Vrankovic get meaningful playing time next year, its going to be tough given how tight Coach K's rotations tend to be especially as we get later in the year.

I do think if we happen to get Knox, he"ll cut in Trent and DeLaurier's minutes and probably play 20-25 minutes based on past history with a recruit ranked as high as he is in RSCI and how Coach K tends to use his NBA SFs as stretch 4s.

I posted this on the Frank Jackson thread and I thought I'd put it here. I believe Bolden and DeLaurier will have to play defense without fouling. This past season that wasn't the case. Part of that was being out of place on defense. Another year under Coach K should help with that. I see most everyone has Jackson as the backup PG. Last year Grayson was more efficient at the point. That's one reason, I'm hoping we get Duval. Having Grayson at the SF & SG positions should give him more opportunities to score with his ability to drive the ball and be there for kick out 3s. That would mean Frank would be the backup point guard. GoDuke!

[scottdude8]

I've learned this off-season (and from following recruiting in general) to never assume anything. That being said, instead of looking at what our rotation might look like assuming we get one or more of the prime recruits we're still pursuing, consider what our rotation might look like in the worst case scenario that our roster remains how it is at this moment:

Starters
PG: Jackson
Wing: Allen
Wing: Trent
Forward: Carter
Forward/Center: Bolden

That's a starting lineup that can easily contend for the ACC Championship. The issue would be depth:

Bench (in the order I'd see them coming off the bench)
DeLaurier (spells Forward positions, possibly plays as a big wing if necessary... probably 10-15 minutes)
White (would have to come in at the Wing as a more tradition 3 man... probably 5-10 minutes)
Vrankovic (spells Center position, likely only for 5 minutes a game depending on foul trouble)
O'Connel (in at the Wing if foul trouble occurs)

Essentially this team would have depth down low assuming that DeLaurier and Vrank improve as many of us expect them to this offseason. The major issue would be the lack of a real guard coming off of the bench. I'm as high on Jack White as anyone, but he still projects as a traditional SF, not a ballhandler. So in response to any sort of injury or foul trouble, the team would be forced to go very big.

Again, assuming our youngsters develop as many of us expect them to, that's an ACC contender, albeit one that would be very prone to injury or foul trouble... and that's without any additional recruits (I'm assuming we'll at least get one more impact freshman from the sense I'm getting on this board from those in the know). It's a team that in many ways would remind me a bit of the 2010 team... not in terms of experience, but in terms of roster makeup (skilled guards but a lack of depth, solid albeit not spectacular bigs with some depth).

From this perspective, adding even one of Duval or Knox gives us the depth we'd need in the backcourt plus the ability to play multiple lineups. Then this goes from an ACC contender to a National Championship contender, IMHO.

Way too early to be doing this type of talk given how much is up in the air. But I'm bored at work, so I did it anyways. Oops.

[kAzE]

Yes, I was taking a quite literal interpretation of the original post, which just specified Duval and Jackson (and didn't have Knox in the rotation).

Also, that's not a 9-man rotation. It's an 8-man rotation: Duval, Jackson, Allen, Trent, Knox, DeLaurier, Carter, Bolden, with the 8th man getting just 10-15 minutes per game. Though in that scenario, I'd be surprised to see Knox playing any SF minutes. He's less of a SF than Tatum was, and Tatum didn't play much SF at all this year.

Wow . . . I counted Jackson twice. I blame lack of sleep -_-

[CDu]

Jackson isn't officially back? I could swear that there's a "Jackson is back" thread. Are we all waiting for confirmation of the confirmation after this already strange off season?

I was told in that thread not to count my chickens before they hatch. That thread was based on a tweet that said "not official yet, but unnamed sources say Jackson is planning on coming back."

[uh_no]

I'd rather talk about it with at least some sense of certainty. But, I get that others are all eager to guess without knowing all the facts. Whatever...

Anyone want to chat about who turns pro next season or the seedings for the 2018 NCAA tourney? I think Duke gets the South region in 2018, though I know some of you expect we will be in the East.

get this man a job at ESPN!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was told in that thread not to count my chickens before they hatch. That thread was based on a tweet that said "not official yet, but unnamed sources say Jackson is planning on coming back."

Sounds like it needs a title change then. Thread title sounds pretty definitive.

[Kedsy]

Revised:

PG: Trevon Duval (30 mins)/Frank Jackson (10 mins)
SG: Frank Jackson (20 mins)/Grayson Allen (20 mins)
SF: Grayson Allen (15 mins)/Gary Trent (25 mins)
PF: Wendell Carter (20 mins)/Javin DeLaurier (20 mins)
C: Marques Bolden (25-30 mins)/Wendell Carter (10-15 mins)

As much as I'd love to see White and Vrankovic get meaningful playing time next year, its going to be tough given how tight Coach K's rotations tend to be especially as we get later in the year.

Yeah, I think your revised rotation is a lot more realistic/reasonable than your initial one.

Taking your assumptions (Duval comes, Jackson stays, and no other recruits), I think the biggest question is whether Gary Trent plays wing or PF, because if Coach K moves him up to PF, we're looking basically at a 6-man rotation, with Javin as the 6.5th man getting 6 to 8 mpg. Personally, I'm hoping for a full 7-man rotation, along the lines you propose.

I'm also hoping we get Duval, Knox, and Bamba (and, sure, throw in Smith, too), so this will probably be my last contribution to this thread until we know for sure what our roster looks like.

[Ultrarunner]

Aren't the point of message boards to foster meaningLESS discussion/speculation about a specific topic, in this case Duke Basketball?
. . .


FIFY.

An argument could be that message boards most often accomplish the opposite of 'meaningful'. A minute's discussion that lacks even a set roster seems to support the hypothesis.

My $.02

[devildeac]

get this man a job at ESPN!

Yep. He might even address the 23 years of academic fraud at c*rolina, unlike some other espn employees. :rolleyes::mad:

[kAzE]

FIFY.

An argument could be that message boards most often accomplish the opposite of 'meaningful'. A minute's discussion that lacks even a set roster seems to support the hypothesis.

My $.02

I think posts like this are even more worthless than the other posts in the thread.

These are educated guesses. Nobody is forcing anyone to read posts. If you're against using educated guesses to discuss next year's team, you're free to go elsewhere. Most of the offseason threads have been speculation anyway. What's so different about this one? Some of us enjoy engaging in "meaningless discussion," is that so wrong?

I don't read all threads. I ignore the ones I'm not interested in. You knew what this thread was about when you saw the title.

[NYBri]

I'm with Jason on this. Too many unknowns at this point to have a rational discussion.

Who said anything about rational? :cool:

[kAzE]

Who said anything about rational? :cool:

I know you were joking, but how is any of this "irrational?"

I mean, it's not like we have no freakin' clue who will be on the team next year. We know at LEAST 70% of the roster at this point. And if we reasonably assume Frank Jackson is returning (which I believe most of us have concluded), that's almost 80% of the roster. We're only waiting on the decisions of 3 recruits, and most of these rotation posts have been prefaced with "Assuming xxx will be on the team . . ."

It's just kind of dumb in my opinion to say "We have no idea what the roster will look like, so it's pointless to discuss rotations at all."

Yes, we do! We know what most of the roster will be! And yes, the recruits' decisions will significantly change the equation, but this has been acknowledged, and already factored into the discussion.

[jimsumner]

I know you were joking, but how is any of this "irrational?"

I mean, it's not like we have no freakin' clue who will be on the team next year. We know at LEAST 70% of the roster at this point. And if we reasonably assume Frank Jackson is returning (which I believe most of us have concluded), that's almost 80% of the roster. We're only waiting on the decisions of 3 recruits, and most of these rotation posts have been prefaced with "Assuming xxx will be on the team . . ."

It's just kind of dumb in my opinion to say "We have no idea what the roster will look like, so it's pointless to discuss rotations at all."

Yes, we do! We know what most of the roster will be! And yes, the recruits decision will significantly change the equation, but this has been acknowledged.

Why assume there are only three unknowns? There are several Plan Bs out there and the possibility of grad transfers, which likely come into play should Duke miss on all of Duval, Knox and Bamba and perhaps if Duke misses on two of the three. There are still a fair number of moving parts out there.

[CDu]

Why assume there are only three unknowns? There are several Plan Bs out there and the possibility of grad transfers, which likely come into play should Duke miss on all of Duval, Knox and Bamba and perhaps if Duke misses on two of the three. There are still a fair number of moving parts out there.

The fallback recruits available are generally not of the caliber that typically factors into the rotation as a freshman. If we don't get Knox and Bamba, I would be VERY surprised if, say, Tucker would play ahead of the more-experienced DeLaurier. And there may or may not be a PF grad transfer that would play over him either. PG would be a bit different, as there isn't a sure-fire option there if Duval doesn't commit. But this discussion is specifically assuming we DO get Duval.

The point kAzE is making is valid. We know that Carter, Allen, Jackson (if he is back), Trent, and Bolden will be in the rotation, likely as starters. That is five of the seven or eight guys that would be in the rotation. So it is totally reasonable to start thinking about roster scenarios.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So I guess you're assuming that we get Duval, but not Knox? I do like your rotation a lot if that's the case.

But personally, I think we get both of those guys, and I like this rotation:

PG: Duval (~30), Jackson (~10)
SG: Jackson (20-25), Allen (15-20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15-20), Knox (5-10)
PF: Knox (20), DeLaurier (10-15), Carter (5-10)
C: Carter (15-20), Bolden (20-25)

Yes, I'm aware that's a 9 player rotation, and 1 of these guys is extremely likely to get left out. I just don't know who that will be yet. I think the most likely candidates could be Trent or DeLaurier. (Probably DeLaurier if we get Knox, but I'm expecting a big leap for Javin this year, so who knows?)

My turn (using Kaze's numbers as a start because I tend to agree with him on non-Jake White topics):

PG: Duval (30), Jackson (10)
SG: Jackson (20), Allen (20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (20), Knox (5)
PF: Knox (25), DeLaurier (5), Carter (10)
C: Carter (25), Bolden (15)

7.5 man rotation. Love it.

[kAzE]

My turn (using Kaze's numbers as a start because I tend to agree with him on non-Jack White topics):

FIFY, and just so we're clear, I said he would be in the rotation by year 3 :p

I'm still standing firm on that!

[flyingdutchdevil]

FIFY, and just so we're clear, I said he would be in the rotation by year 3.

Oh come on. Not even some recognition that this was a funny joke?

EDIT: Responded before you added a :p or the last comment.

[OldPhiKap]

Why assume there are only three unknowns? There are several Plan Bs out there and the possibility of grad transfers, which likely come into play should Duke miss on all of Duval, Knox and Bamba and perhaps if Duke misses on two of the three. There are still a fair number of moving parts out there.

With all due respect to others, this may be the only useful info to come out of this thread. Jim knows that of which he speaks.

[Troublemaker]

I think posts like this are even more worthless than the other posts in the thread.

These are educated guesses. Nobody is forcing anyone to read posts. If you're against using educated guesses to discuss next year's team, you're free to go elsewhere. Most of the offseason threads have been speculation anyway. What's so different about this one? Some of us enjoy engaging in "meaningless discussion," is that so wrong?

I don't read all threads. I ignore the ones I'm not interested in. You knew what this thread was about when you saw the title.


I know you were joking, but how is any of this "irrational?"

I mean, it's not like we have no freakin' clue who will be on the team next year. We know at LEAST 70% of the roster at this point. And if we reasonably assume Frank Jackson is returning (which I believe most of us have concluded), that's almost 80% of the roster. We're only waiting on the decisions of 3 recruits, and most of these rotation posts have been prefaced with "Assuming xxx will be on the team . . ."

It's just kind of dumb in my opinion to say "We have no idea what the roster will look like, so it's pointless to discuss rotations at all."

Yes, we do! We know what most of the roster will be! And yes, the recruits' decisions will significantly change the equation, but this has been acknowledged, and already factored into the discussion.

Word, kAzE. The thread is titled correctly. People know what they're getting into. (And I like the plan to re-start the thread once everything is finalized).

Look folks, discussing lineups is quintessential sports talk. That's what sports fans do in the offseason -- we discuss next season's lineups. Pre-internet, we also did it. We would just do it over beers and burgers with our buddies near a patio grill or in a sports bar.

[CDu]

Word, kAzE. The thread is titled correctly. People know what they're getting into. (And I like the plan to re-start the thread once everything is finalized).

Look folks, discussing lineups is quintessential sports talk. That's what sports fans do in the offseason -- we discuss next season's lineups. Pre-internet, we also did it. We would just do it over beers and burgers with our buddies near a patio grill or in a sports bar.

No joke! For crying out loud. It is the offseason. There isn't really any relevant news to talk about at the moment. So unless the folks running DBR want to greatly reduce their traffic for 4-6 months of the year, I think it is completely reasonable to discuss this. Especially since, as you note, we do it anyway.

This is what plenty of folks do to fill the time between now and when the season starts up again. There will be periodic bits of news (the decisions for various recruits, Jackson's official confirmation of return/exit, etc.). But those will be relatively few. Discussing potential lineups makes as much sense as any other offseason topic.

[kAzE]

Oh come on. Not even some recognition that this was a funny joke?

EDIT: Responded before you added a :p or the last comment.

I have a bad habit of clicking "Submit Reply" before I'm totally satisfied with my post . . .

I don't have a signature, but if I did, it would be "Last edited by kAzE;"

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

No joke! For crying out loud. It is the offseason. There isn't really any relevant news to talk about at the moment. So unless the folks running DBR want to greatly reduce their traffic for 4-6 months of the year, I think it is completely reasonable to discuss this. Especially since, as you note, we do it anyway.

This is what plenty of folks do to fill the time between now and when the season starts up again. There will be periodic bits of news (the decisions for various recruits, Jackson's official confirmation of return/exit, etc.). But those will be relatively few. Discussing potential lineups makes as much sense as any other offseason topic.

Just to be clear, are we agreed that we are finished discussing whether or not this is something we can be discussing?

Sometimes this board reminds me of when I worked at a nonprofit and we had 20 committee meetings every day.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just to be clear, are we agreed that we are finished discussing whether or not this is something we can be discussing?

Sometimes this board reminds me of when I worked at a nonprofit and we had 20 committee meetings every day.

Hit a new level. This post is about I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing about I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing ABOUT I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing. So I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing to the third power! (and someone will probably say my post is to the fourth power).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Hit a new level. This post is about I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing about I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing ABOUT I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing. So I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.ing to the third power! (and someone will probably say my post is to the fourth power).

*takes a bow*

Begun, the off-season has.

[DaleDuke7]

My turn (using Kaze's numbers as a start because I tend to agree with him on non-Jake White topics):

PG: Duval (30), Jackson (10)
SG: Jackson (20), Allen (20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (20), Knox (5)
PF: Knox (25), DeLaurier (5), Carter (10)
C: Carter (25), Bolden (15)

7.5 man rotation. Love it.

I'm going to piggy back off of yours, in part because I like the firm numbers, and also in part because our projections are fairly similar.

My prediction:

PG: Duval: (30), Jackson (10)
SG: Jackson (20), Allen (20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15), Knox (10)
PF: Knox (25), DeLaurier (5), Carter (10)
C: Carter (20), Bolden (20)

I don't see Trent getting 20mpg just yet if both of Duval and Knox come. He seems like a more athletic Matt Jones to me (who I think averaged 10mpg his freshman year). And I don't think Bolden only gets 15 mpg. I'd say at least 20 and possibly 25 with Carter's total minutes slipping from 30 down to 25.

[CDu]

I'm going to piggy back off of yours, in part because I like the firm numbers, and also in part because our projections are fairly similar.

My prediction:

PG: Duval: (30), Jackson (10)
SG: Jackson (20), Allen (20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15), Knox (10)
PF: Knox (25), DeLaurier (5), Carter (10)
C: Carter (20), Bolden (20)

I don't see Trent getting 20mpg just yet if both of Duval and Knox come. He seems like a more athletic Matt Jones to me (who I think averaged 10mpg his freshman year). And I don't think Bolden only gets 15 mpg. I'd say at least 20 and possibly 25 with Carter's total minutes slipping from 30 down to 25.

I don't see Knox getting 10 mpg at SF, nor do I see him getting 35 mpg. I think you have overestimated Knox's minutes and underestimated Trent.

[kAzE]

I don't see Knox getting 10 mpg at SF, nor do I see him getting 35 mpg. I think you have overestimated Knox's minutes and underestimated Trent.

There's (rightfully) a lot of disagreement over Knox and Trent in these rotations. They are perhaps the biggest unknown quantities. Personally, I do think Knox will play more than Trent. This is purely based on the fact that Knox fills a role that can't really be replicated by anyone else currently on the roster, as a skilled guy who has the size to play the 4, but also the mobility to potentially defend on the perimeter.

Granted, this could change if Trent proves he is a capable perimeter defender a la Matt Jones or Justise Winslow. If anyone is that good defensively, they are starting and playing 25+ minutes.

[cato]

Just to be clear, are we agreed that we are finished discussing whether or not this is something we can be discussing?

Sometimes this board reminds me of when I worked at a nonprofit and we had 20 committee meetings every day.

This board is like a non-profit in more ways than one. With so many of us profiting by six minute increments, there is a lot of non-profiting going on!

[SkyBrickey]

Trent shot 52% from 3 his senior year. And he has the reputation as a solid, physical defender. Even if Knox comes, I expect him to see the court more than 15 mpg. And I expect him to lead the team - ahead of Allen and Jackson - in 3P%. K likes his shooters.

[jimsumner]

Until we know who wins the Nick Horvath summer-pickup-award, we're just whistling in the wind here.

[Jeffrey]

Until we know who wins the Nick Horvath summer-pickup-award, we're just whistling in the wind here.

You don't tug on superman's cape,
You don't spit into the wind,
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger,
And you don't mess around with Jim.

[CDu]

There's (rightfully) a lot of disagreement over Knox and Trent in these rotations. They are perhaps the biggest unknown quantities. Personally, I do think Knox will play more than Trent. This is purely based on the fact that Knox fills a role that can't really be replicated by anyone else currently on the roster, as a skilled guy who has the size to play the 4, but also the mobility to potentially defend on the perimeter.

Granted, this could change if Trent proves he is a capable perimeter defender a la Matt Jones or Justise Winslow. If anyone is that good defensively, they are starting and playing 25+ minutes.

I do think Knox would play more than Trent if we get Duval and Knox. I don't think the disparity would be 35 for Knox and 15 for Trent.

[OldPhiKap]

You don't tug on superman's cape,
You don't spit into the wind,
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger,
And you don't mess around with Jim.

The wind in the willow's playing "tea for two" . . . .

[DaleDuke7]

I don't see Knox getting 10 mpg at SF, nor do I see him getting 35 mpg. I think you have overestimated Knox's minutes and underestimated Trent.

Good point. Didn't realize I gave Knox 35 when I took away some of Cater's when I gave my version of the one I quoted. Since realizing that, my updated projections would further my point about Bolden getting 25 mpg, although not at the expense of Carter.

PG: Duval: (30), Jackson (10)
SG: Jackson (20), Allen (20)
SF: Allen (15), Trent (15), Knox (10)
PF: Knox (20), DeLaurier (5), Carter (15)
C: Carter (15), Bolden (25)

I know this lineup is only playing Knox as a stretch 4 for half the game, but I think it could definitely work. K is high on Carter's versatility and that's why I think he'll play the 4 more than most people probably think.

Maybe I am underestimating Trent. I hope I am. It's just hard for me to see him getting 20 mpg if we get both of Duval and Knox in addition to the guys who already have college experience. I do think Trent could have a breakout sophomore season though.

[jv001]

Trent shot 52% from 3 his senior year. And he has the reputation as a solid, physical defender. Even if Knox comes, I expect him to see the court more than 15 mpg. And I expect him to lead the team - ahead of Allen and Jackson - in 3P%. K likes his shooters.

I think Trent will have to shoot 40-42% to be a higher percentage shooter than either Grayson or Frank. Just my gut feeling. GoDuke!

[jimsumner]

You don't tug on superman's cape,
You don't spit into the wind,
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger,
And you don't mess around with Jim.

Actually, I had something else in mind but didn't think I could get it past the wanker filter.

[Troublemaker]

Trent shot 52% from 3 his senior year. And he has the reputation as a solid, physical defender. Even if Knox comes, I expect him to see the court more than 15 mpg. And I expect him to lead the team - ahead of Allen and Jackson - in 3P%. K likes his shooters.

Could you supply a source for Trent's 3-pt percentage, please?

[devildeac]

The wind in the willow's playing "tea for two" . . . .

I'm listening to this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHlo_N34vuo

[devildeac]

Actually, I had something else in mind but didn't think I could get it past the wanker filter.

Dust in the Wind?

Nah, musta been piss in the wind:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=piss%20in%20the%20wind

Oooh, it worked. :o;)

[Furniture]

My take is that there are many comments on this and similar "what if" subjects within the other threads so why have a thread dedicated for this particular "what if"?

[Indoor66]

But my what if is better than your what if!

[OldPhiKap]

But my what if is better than your what if!

What if it wasn't?

[Indoor66]

What if it wasn't?

Oh, but is. I use all of the shiny new toys.

[OldPhiKap]

Oh, but is. I use all of the shiny new toys.

I meant in a hypothetical world, obviously.

[whereinthehellami]

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Bolden would be coming back for his sophomore season. Bolden did not look comfortable in K's system last year. Injuries played a role but there was a quick hook and limited opportunities for most of the year. And now with Carter coming in, I have a hard time seeing how this is going to work out in K's system. I would have loved to hear the discussions that the coaches had with Bolden this off-season. I'm assuming that the sales pitch was that he would be a starter and that Duke would go big. I would love to see it personally but unless K changes his schemes, I don't see how this will work out well for Bolden. I guess Duval is the key to making the two bigs lineup work out, at least on the offensive side. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Troublemaker]

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Bolden would be coming back for his sophomore season. Bolden did not look comfortable in K's system last year. Injuries played a role but there was a quick hook and limited opportunities for most of the year. And now with Carter coming in, I have a hard time seeing how this is going to work out in K's system. I would have loved to hear the discussions that the coaches had with Bolden this off-season. I'm assuming that the sales pitch was that he would be a starter and that Duke would go big. I would love to see it personally but unless K changes his schemes, I don't see how this will work out well for Bolden. I guess Duval is the key to making the two bigs lineup work out, at least on the offensive side. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

Could you get more specific? I don't think Bolden's "quick hook and limited opportunities" (which I agree with) were related to scheme. Unless by scheme, you just mean Coach K eventually opted to play with 1 big, and Marques was the 3rd big in line behind Amile and Harry.

Unless Duke lands Bamba, I'm pretty confident Marques will receive good minutes next season. 80 minutes have to be divvied up between the 4 and 5. I think it very likely that Marques nabs 20 of those minutes at least. None of the other possibilities seem as likely to me. What are you thinking with the big man minutes situation? If not Marques, then...

[Troublemaker]

It should be noted also that Coach K is seemingly optimistic about Bolden's sophomore season. In the press release announcing Bolden's return (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=211546201), Coach K said (emphasis mine):

“We’re thrilled that Marques will continue to be part of our program,” Krzyzewski said. “In addition to being a talented basketball player, he’s an outstanding young man from a great family. It’s unfortunate that his freshman season was impacted by injury, but he has an opportunity to have a great summer and a special sophomore season.”

[Saratoga2]

Could you get more specific? I don't think Bolden's "quick hook and limited opportunities" (which I agree with) were related to scheme. Unless by scheme, you just mean Coach K eventually opted to play with 1 big, and Marques was the 3rd big in line behind Amile and Harry.

Unless Duke lands Bamba, I'm pretty confident Marques will receive good minutes next season. 80 minutes have to be divvied up between the 4 and 5. I think it very likely that Marques nabs 20 of those minutes at least. None of the other possibilities seem as likely to me. What are you thinking with the big man minutes situation? If not Marques, then...

Last season coach K didn't use Obi, Jeter, Vrank, Bolden or DeLaurier more than for a few minutes and then irregularly if at all. He used Giles very sparingly. so it came down to Jefferson and Tatum. So, to use the 80 minutes of front court play the only likely lock is Carter. Big men have trouble lasting for more than 25 minutes and Carter is big. Freshmen have trouble with fouls and Carter is a freshman. Mark Carter down for no more than 25 minutes. That leaves Bolden, DeLaurier and Vrank to handle 55 minutes. Bolden for the same reason as Carter will have trouble staying in the game more than 25 minutes even if he plays much better than last season and remains healthy. DeLaurier looks to be able to handle more minutes physically but will his play justify it and can he keep out of foul trouble? He could play 20 minutes if things go well for him while Vrank is more of a limited minutes guy.

Now if Bamba comes as a freshman big, he will likely get PT based on sheer defensive intimidation. Knox is Tatum's size which means he could handle the 4th and perhaps has more skill than either DeLaurier or Bolden but probably isn't as physically intimidating. Lot to think about after the roster is fully developed.

[Kedsy]

Big men have trouble lasting for more than 25 minutes and Carter is big.

In each of the last six seasons, Duke has played a big man for (significantly) more than 25mpg:

2017: Amile Jefferson, 29.7 mpg
2016: Marshall Plumlee, 30.5 mpg
2015: Jahlil Okafor, 30.1 mpg
2014: Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg
2013: Mason Plumlee, 34.7 mpg AND Ryan Kelly, 28.9 mpg
2012: Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg


Freshmen have trouble with fouls and Carter is a freshman.

This statement is more supportable than your last one, but in the past four years, Jahlil Okafor and Jabari Parker both topped 30 mpg as freshmen.


Mark Carter down for no more than 25 minutes.

Since your assumptions don't appear to be true, you haven't yet convinced me of this.

[ChillinDuke]

In each of the last six seasons, Duke has played a big man for (significantly) more than 25mpg:

2017: Amile Jefferson, 29.7 mpg
2016: Marshall Plumlee, 30.5 mpg
2015: Jahlil Okafor, 30.1 mpg
2014: Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg
2013: Mason Plumlee, 34.7 mpg AND Ryan Kelly, 28.9 mpg
2012: Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg



This statement is more supportable than your last one, but in the past four years, Jahlil Okafor and Jabari Parker both topped 30 mpg as freshmen.



Since your assumptions don't appear to be true, you haven't yet convinced me of this.

I agree with your overarching point. And I also expect Carter to avg >25mpg next year (and possibly >30, possibly). But I do think that some posters use non-freshmen data points as evidence for incoming freshmen, which doesn't make sense to me. Granted, your particular post dials back from the original bolded examples, which shouldn't reasonably apply to Carter IMO.

Others, for example, have used D-Marc as an example of an undersized guard playing the 4. That does not seem an apt comparison to freshman Gary Trent, again for example.

- Chillin

[Listen to Quants]

Last season coach K didn't use Obi, Jeter, Vrank, Bolden or DeLaurier more than for a few minutes and then irregularly if at all. He used Giles very sparingly. so it came down to Jefferson and Tatum. So, to use the 80 minutes of front court play the only likely lock is Carter. Big men have trouble lasting for more than 25 minutes and Carter is big. Freshmen have trouble with fouls and Carter is a freshman. Mark Carter down for no more than 25 minutes. That leaves Bolden, DeLaurier and Vrank to handle 55 minutes. Bolden for the same reason as Carter will have trouble staying in the game more than 25 minutes even if he plays much better than last season and remains healthy. DeLaurier looks to be able to handle more minutes physically but will his play justify it and can he keep out of foul trouble? He could play 20 minutes if things go well for him while Vrank is more of a limited minutes guy.

Now if Bamba comes as a freshman big, he will likely get PT based on sheer defensive intimidation. Knox is Tatum's size which means he could handle the 4th and perhaps has more skill than either DeLaurier or Bolden but probably isn't as physically intimidating. Lot to think about after the roster is fully developed.


In each of the last six seasons, Duke has played a big man for (significantly) more than 25mpg:

2017: Amile Jefferson, 29.7 mpg
2016: Marshall Plumlee, 30.5 mpg
2015: Jahlil Okafor, 30.1 mpg
2014: Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg
2013: Mason Plumlee, 34.7 mpg AND Ryan Kelly, 28.9 mpg
2012: Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg



This statement is more supportable than your last one, but in the past four years, Jahlil Okafor and Jabari Parker both topped 30 mpg as freshmen.



Since your assumptions don't appear to be true, you haven't yet convinced me of this.


Saratoga's point is supported if you combine the two trends he noted, as he probably intended. If, as an example, All ACC level players get 35 minutes in K's system, but as freshman tend to get 5 minutes less. AND, if big men All ACC players tend to get 5 minutes less then we get to 25 minutes as a guestimate. Freshman Okafor and freshman Parker beat that estimate, others probably came in under that estimate. The 25 minute guess seem reasonable, but obviously depends upon other circumstances wrt Bolden, Knox, Trent, Bamba etc.

#OffseasonDesperationForFix

[CDu]

Others, for example, have used D-Marc as an example of an undersized guard playing the 4. That does not seem an apt comparison to freshman Gary Trent, again for example.

- Chillin

This is a bit of an aside, but I think the "Nelson/Henderson as an undersized PF" example is overstated. The two didn't play any PF at all in 2007 (the frontcourt minutes went to McRoberts, Zoubek, Thomas, McClure, and Boykin), and only about 8 mpg in 2008 (when Singler, Thomas, Zoubek, McClure, and King ate up the vast majority of the frontcourt minutes).

The guys who fit more in this discussion are Lee Melchionni in 2005 and 2006, Dahntay Jones in 2003, and Justise Winslow in 2015. Winslow and Jones were more athletic than Trent, and Melchionni less skilled (and probably less athletic).

[Kedsy]

I agree with your overarching point. And I also expect Carter to avg >25mpg next year (and possibly >30, possibly). But I do think that some posters use non-freshmen data points as evidence for incoming freshmen, which doesn't make sense to me. Granted, your particular post dials back from the original bolded examples, which shouldn't reasonably apply to Carter IMO.

Others, for example, have used D-Marc as an example of an undersized guard playing the 4. That does not seem an apt comparison to freshman Gary Trent, again for example.

- Chillin

I understand. My list you quote was in response to a statement that said, "Big men have trouble lasting for more than 25 minutes..." That statement is demonstrably untrue.

I dealt with the freshman idea in the next paragraph, though even then, 2 in the last 4 years would seem to effectively counter the idea that freshmen bigs can't exceed 25 mpg. Especially since Okafor and Parker are the only starting freshman big men we've had in the past 10 years, unless you want to count wings-playing-big like Singler, Winslow, Ingram, and Tatum, all of whom played 28+ mpg as freshmen as well. I would argue that the "starting" tag is more important than the "freshman" tag in this instance, because if a guy is good enough to start for Duke, he'll probably be good enough to stay on the floor, too.

Put another way, it's hard to credibly suggest that a starting freshman big absolutely won't play more than 25 mpg when every freshman who has started for Duke at PF or C in the past 10 years has played 28+ mpg.

[Kedsy]

If, as an example, All ACC level players get 35 minutes in K's system, but as freshman tend to get 5 minutes less.

I know you were just using this as an example, but this doesn't appear to be true either -- in each of the last three seasons, we've had freshman getting 33+ mpg (Tatum, 33.3; Ingram 34.6; T Jones 33.9).


AND, if big men All ACC players tend to get 5 minutes less then we get to 25 minutes as a guestimate.

I wouldn't have responded to Saratoga's post if I thought he was making a "guestimate." To me, he seemed to be suggesting a maximum on Carter's minutes, based on premises that I don't believe are true.


Freshman Okafor and freshman Parker beat that estimate, others probably came in under that estimate.

As I said in a previous post, none of the others who came in under that estimate over the past 10 years were starters. For the purposes of predicting playing time, it doesn't make sense to me to compare, e.g., Carter to 3rd-string-center Bolden, rather than comparing him to, e.g., starting-center Okafor.

[Saratoga2]

I know you were just using this as an example, but this doesn't appear to be true either -- in each of the last three seasons, we've had freshman getting 33+ mpg (Tatum, 33.3; Ingram 34.6; T Jones 33.9).



I wouldn't have responded to Saratoga's post if I thought he was making a "guestimate." To me, he seemed to be suggesting a maximum on Carter's minutes, based on premises that I don't believe are true.



As I said in a previous post, none of the others who came in under that estimate over the past 10 years were starters. For the purposes of predicting playing time, it doesn't make sense to me to compare, e.g., Carter to 3rd-string-center Bolden, rather than comparing him to, e.g., starting-center Okafor.


In the case of Carter, who I said I believe will be a lock as a starter, he is 6'10" and 245 pounds. I would love to see him in the game as much as possible, however, a man his size running the court tires plus the freshman fouls add up quickly. I hope he can stay in the game for more than 25 minutes but wouldn't count on it. Bolden is similar sized and has not shown the hoped for abilities as yet. He is also low on experience. DeLaurier is more athletic and lighter and more apt to handle the running although he is a foul magnet.

Okafor was even bigger and did play more but there are examples throughout NCAA BB when front court players were in less time as well. Karnowski and Sarbonis playing for Few in 2015 were real big men and capable. I believe Karnowski played 24.7 minutes while Sarbonis played 21+. It is difficult to look through all of basketball over the years and get data to support either your or my position so I will leave it that you made reasonable points and I hope Carter can give us more minutes.

[Saratoga2]

I know you were just using this as an example, but this doesn't appear to be true either -- in each of the last three seasons, we've had freshman getting 33+ mpg (Tatum, 33.3; Ingram 34.6; T Jones 33.9).



I wouldn't have responded to Saratoga's post if I thought he was making a "guestimate." To me, he seemed to be suggesting a maximum on Carter's minutes, based on premises that I don't believe are true.



As I said in a previous post, none of the others who came in under that estimate over the past 10 years were starters. For the purposes of predicting playing time, it doesn't make sense to me to compare, e.g., Carter to 3rd-string-center Bolden, rather than comparing him to, e.g., starting-center Okafor.

One other data point is UNC this year. Meeks 24.3 , Hicks 23.3 and Bradley 14.6 MPG.

[jimsumner]

One other data point is UNC this year. Meeks 24.3 , Hicks 23.3 and Bradley 14.6 MPG.

This would be more compelling if Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams historically had remotely similar substitution patterns.

[Saratoga2]

This would be more compelling if Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams historically had remotely similar substitution patterns.

There is truth in what all the contributors have added. Perhaps Mark Few's substitution pattern also greatly differs from coach K.

[jimsumner]

There is truth in what all the contributors have added. Perhaps Mark Few's substitution pattern also greatly differs from coach K.

So the folks who insist that Carter won't play more than 25 mpg next season and the folks who think he will play a lot more are both correct?

Mike Krzyzewski historically plays his starters more minutes than Roy Williams plays his starters and tends to not go as deep into his bench. Thus rendering the comparison between Duke mpg and Carolina mpg somewhat tenuous.

Mark Few's relevance to the topic at hand eludes me.

[-jk]

So the folks who insist that Carter won't play more than 25 mpg next season and the folks who think he will play a lot more are both correct?

Mike Krzyzewski historically plays his starters more minutes than Roy Williams plays his starters and tends to not go as deep into his bench. Thus rendering the comparison between Duke mpg and Carolina mpg somewhat tenuous.

Mark Few's relevance to the topic at hand eludes me.

There you go, being rational again! 😄

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

So the folks who insist that Carter won't play more than 25 mpg next season and the folks who think he will play a lot more are both correct?



Schrödinger's recruit

[ChillinDuke]

I understand. My list you quote was in response to a statement that said, "Big men have trouble lasting for more than 25 minutes..." That statement is demonstrably untrue.

I dealt with the freshman idea in the next paragraph, though even then, 2 in the last 4 years would seem to effectively counter the idea that freshmen bigs can't exceed 25 mpg. Especially since Okafor and Parker are the only starting freshman big men we've had in the past 10 years, unless you want to count wings-playing-big like Singler, Winslow, Ingram, and Tatum, all of whom played 28+ mpg as freshmen as well. I would argue that the "starting" tag is more important than the "freshman" tag in this instance, because if a guy is good enough to start for Duke, he'll probably be good enough to stay on the floor, too.

Put another way, it's hard to credibly suggest that a starting freshman big absolutely won't play more than 25 mpg when every freshman who has started for Duke at PF or C in the past 10 years has played 28+ mpg.

Right, and again I agree. I would add, however, that Parker does not strike me as a great comp for Carter. Parker was a do-it-all wing with bulk. Carter is pretty clearly not that - he's got the bulk part but he's in no way a wing. The distinction is important insomuch as one believes "big men" struggle with fouls and conditioning when ratcheting up a level into college. I do not necessarily subscribe to that belief, as I think there's a spectrum to everything. But if that (or something resembling that logic) is the basis for believing Carter won't average many minutes next year, then Parker seems a less relevant comparison, despite where we might have used him in college.

- Chillin

[DavidBenAkiva]

Right, and again I agree. I would add, however, that Parker does not strike me as a great comp for Carter. Parker was a do-it-all wing with bulk. Carter is pretty clearly not that - he's got the bulk part but he's in no way a wing. The distinction is important insomuch as one believes "big men" struggle with fouls and conditioning when ratcheting up a level into college. I do not necessarily subscribe to that belief, as I think there's a spectrum to everything. But if that (or something resembling that logic) is the basis for believing Carter won't average many minutes next year, then Parker seems a less relevant comparison, despite where we might have used him in college.

- Chillin

I'm no basketball expert, but I think the biggest factor for bigs in college, or bigs going up a level in general, is dealing with additional responsibilities. In high school, Okafor, Carter, etc. are giants among boys. We've all seen the Zion Williamson highlight videos where he is just so physically dominant compared to his high school peers. When Carter gets to college, he is suddenly going to be facing players on opposing teams that will present a physical challenge the likes of which he has never seen. Has he gone against a player with the strength and length of Bonzie Colson before? Will he know what to do when a post seals him in the paint? How will he react to a double team when he can't just pivot and pass over the defenders? Carter seems skilled and physically mature for his age, but there are a lot of unknowns here.

For me, I will want to wait and see the players in action. I am particularly interested in seeing how Carter plays defense. I assume that he is going to be a high volume rebounder out of the gate and will be able to muscle his way to average 10-15 pts per game. If he can display anything like a consistent 10-15 ft jump shot, then we might really have something.

Other players I am interested in seeing are Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden. If one or, ideally, both of those sophomores can take a big step forward, this Duke team could have a high ceiling. There were times when Bolden displayed surprising lateral quickness, in particular when he hedged against the pick-and-role. If the game starts slowing down for him, that size and length of his can play some big dividends. Imagine the athleticism in the backcourt of Trevon Duval, Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, and Gary Trent, Jr. paired with two huge shot blockers waiting at the rim. Carter and Bolden are as big and long as nearly any centers in the college game. Having the two of them on the court for stretches of time could do wonders to handling dribble penetration.

Javin, on the other hand, has the physical profile of a player that can play opposite either Carter or Bolden. Again, any sort of offensive development and growth out of him could do amazing things for the team. At 6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan and his athleticism, he could develop into a great help defender. I could see him jumping over Bolden or Carter to block a shot or to jump into the lane when needed.

These are mostly observations about team defense and I don't have the faintest idea of how the offense would run with any combination of Bolden, Carter, DeLaurier, or Vrankovic. Still, the sheer size and variable skillset of these players is intriguing.

[CDu]

I'm no basketball expert, but I think the biggest factor for bigs in college, or bigs going up a level in general, is dealing with additional responsibilities. In high school, Okafor, Carter, etc. are giants among boys. We've all seen the Zion Williamson highlight videos where he is just so physically dominant compared to his high school peers. When Carter gets to college, he is suddenly going to be facing players on opposing teams that will present a physical challenge the likes of which he has never seen. Has he gone against a player with the strength and length of Bonzie Colson before? Will he know what to do when a post seals him in the paint? How will he react to a double team when he can't just pivot and pass over the defenders? Carter seems skilled and physically mature for his age, but there are a lot of unknowns here.

For me, I will want to wait and see the players in action. I am particularly interested in seeing how Carter plays defense. I assume that he is going to be a high volume rebounder out of the gate and will be able to muscle his way to average 10-15 pts per game. If he can display anything like a consistent 10-15 ft jump shot, then we might really have something.

I completely agree on this. It's fairly rare for big men to translate their high school success immediately to college. It happens from time to time (Oden did it, for example, and to a lesser degree Okafor did too). But there is just a shortage of guys who are that big and that athletic, and in high school the talent is just way more dispersed than in college (and likewise the jump from college to the NBA is tough). It's easier for a 6'2" PG to translate immediately, because there are lots of pretty good 6'2" guards to match up against even in high school. But it's why a guy like Plumlee (a top-20 recruit with loads of athleticism at 6'10") struggled to find his game in college.

I would certainly not expect Carter to come in and run roughshod over the ACC. It's possible, but I'd expect there to be growing pains. If there are not, that would be surprising. As even Okafor (who was a higher-rated prospect in a stronger recruiting class) had some growing pains.


Other players I am interested in seeing are Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden. If one or, ideally, both of those sophomores can take a big step forward, this Duke team could have a high ceiling. There were times when Bolden displayed surprising lateral quickness, in particular when he hedged against the pick-and-role. If the game starts slowing down for him, that size and length of his can play some big dividends. Imagine the athleticism in the backcourt of Trevon Duval, Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, and Gary Trent, Jr. paired with two huge shot blockers waiting at the rim. Carter and Bolden are as big and long as nearly any centers in the college game. Having the two of them on the court for stretches of time could do wonders to handling dribble penetration.

Javin, on the other hand, has the physical profile of a player that can play opposite either Carter or Bolden. Again, any sort of offensive development and growth out of him could do amazing things for the team. At 6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan and his athleticism, he could develop into a great help defender. I could see him jumping over Bolden or Carter to block a shot or to jump into the lane when needed.

These are mostly observations about team defense and I don't have the faintest idea of how the offense would run with any combination of Bolden, Carter, DeLaurier, or Vrankovic. Still, the sheer size and variable skillset of these players is intriguing.

I'm very intrigued by both. They were both terrific players in high school. They both have physical tools that suggest they should become effective players in college. But whether it be injuries or depth chart issues or struggling to transition to facing more consistently good bigs (or a combination of all three), they didn't show it last year. I don't expect them to suddenly be All-ACC players, but I do hope they can contribute substantial productive minutes in a rotation with Carter. Especially if we don't add Bamba or Knox. The physical/athletic gifts are there. It's just a question of whether they can make the leap from freshman to sophomore year to be useful regulars.

[SkyBrickey]

Having watched Carter play a lot in high school, he is a big guy and he does get winded carrying 250 lbs+ up and down the court. That would argue for 25 mpg.

But he is nimble and knows how to use positioning and his great length to contest shots - I expect him to be less foul-prone as a freshman big than Harry, Marques or Chase for example. He'll foul out of a few games but I don't think fouls will hold his overall minutes down. If we squeezed 30 mpg out of big Jah, I think Coach can squeeze 30 mpg out of Carter if he is the type of college-ready talent I expect him to be out of the gate.

Of course if Javin, Bolden and Vrank all have great summers, maybe we'll only need a productive 25-28 out of Carter (a guy can still dream of going 9 deep, right?).

[Spanarkel]

I'm no basketball expert, but I think the biggest factor for bigs in college, or bigs going up a level in general, is dealing with additional responsibilities. In high school, Okafor, Carter, etc. are giants among boys. We've all seen the Zion Williamson highlight videos where he is just so physically dominant compared to his high school peers. When Carter gets to college, he is suddenly going to be facing players on opposing teams that will present a physical challenge the likes of which he has never seen. Has he gone against a player with the strength and length of Bonzie Colson before? Will he know what to do when a post seals him in the paint? How will he react to a double team when he can't just pivot and pass over the defenders? Carter seems skilled and physically mature for his age, but there are a lot of unknowns here.For me, I will want to wait and see the players in action. I am particularly interested in seeing how Carter plays defense. I assume that he is going to be a high volume rebounder out of the gate and will be able to muscle his way to average 10-15 pts per game. If he can display anything like a consistent 10-15 ft jump shot, then we might really have something.

Other players I am interested in seeing are Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden. If one or, ideally, both of those sophomores can take a big step forward, this Duke team could have a high ceiling. There were times when Bolden displayed surprising lateral quickness, in particular when he hedged against the pick-and-role. If the game starts slowing down for him, that size and length of his can play some big dividends. Imagine the athleticism in the backcourt of Trevon Duval, Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, and Gary Trent, Jr. paired with two huge shot blockers waiting at the rim. Carter and Bolden are as big and long as nearly any centers in the college game. Having the two of them on the court for stretches of time could do wonders to handling dribble penetration.

Javin, on the other hand, has the physical profile of a player that can play opposite either Carter or Bolden. Again, any sort of offensive development and growth out of him could do amazing things for the team. At 6'10" with a 7'0" wingspan and his athleticism, he could develop into a great help defender. I could see him jumping over Bolden or Carter to block a shot or to jump into the lane when needed.

These are mostly observations about team defense and I don't have the faintest idea of how the offense would run with any combination of Bolden, Carter, DeLaurier, or Vrankovic. Still, the sheer size and variable skillset of these players is intriguing.

I attended this AAU(EYBL)game last summer when Carter went up against Deandre Ayton and Brandon McCoy. Carter went for 30/16 and blocked a number of McCoy's and Ayton's shots. People will scoff and say, "AAU? Where's the defense?", but I think the video shows Carter going at it strongly against the CalSupreme team's twin towers.
http://dukereport.com/watch-listen/watch-wendell-carter-vs-deandre-ayton-highlights-dukeofhoops/

[kAzE]

I think many folks might be pleasantly surprised with Wendell Carter's defense. The thing that I always take away from watching him play is how amazing his body control is for a 250+ pound human being. If he wasn't standing next to other players, and you couldn't tell how huge he is, you might mistake him for a guard. I do think Wendell will play closer to 30 minutes per game. What I've seen of his game suggests to me that he will not be a fouling machine, like many young big men are prone to being. This is a young man who grew into this massive frame very early on in his high school career. He has had a few years now to adjust and refine his game with a man's body. Unlike most big men coming out of high school, he is not a rail thin raw prospect who is still filling out his frame and still learning to control his massive body. He's been doing this for some time now.

I have seen some respected posters here describe Wendell as a guy who isn't a rim protector. In my opinion, he looks like a he could be an excellent rim protector. "Rim protector" does NOT equal "shot blocker." I don't know why so many folks seem to think these two terms are synonymous. You don't HAVE to block a shot to protect the rim. Simply being in the correct position at the right time to successfully challenge and alter a shot in the paint IS rim protection. Wendell may not have the incredible athleticism or length of Marques Bolden or Mo Bamba, but he does have very good body control, strength, and footwork. He is also very smart. I believe he is going to be better on defense than most are expecting.

[MChambers]

I attended this AAU(EYBL)game last summer when Carter went up against Deandre Ayton and Brandon McCoy. Carter went for 30/16 and blocked a number of McCoy's and Ayton's shots. People will scoff and say, "AAU? Where's the defense?", but I think the video shows Carter going at it strongly against the CalSupreme team's twin towers.
http://dukereport.com/watch-listen/watch-wendell-carter-vs-deandre-ayton-highlights-dukeofhoops/

Thanks for this link. Good to hear that Carter can be strong one on one.

The bigger concern for me is team defense, and things like defending the pick and roll, which has not been a Duke strength in recent years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I attended this AAU(EYBL)game last summer when Carter went up against Deandre Ayton and Brandon McCoy. Carter went for 30/16 and blocked a number of McCoy's and Ayton's shots. People will scoff and say, "AAU? Where's the defense?", but I think the video shows Carter going at it strongly against the CalSupreme team's twin towers.
http://dukereport.com/watch-listen/watch-wendell-carter-vs-deandre-ayton-highlights-dukeofhoops/

I'm still skeptical - in a good way? - about his ability to translate his size and strength to the college game for a couple reasons. First, Ayton and McCoy are not college juniors and seniors. They are tall and long, but Carter has a size advantage against both of those players. Will he be able to translate that to someone that is 21-22 years old and has spent years in a high major college gym working on his lower body strength? Think of a guy like John Egbunu at Florida. Is Carter going to struggle against a physically mature player like that? It seems that most teams have rugged juniors and seniors like that. Marques Bolden really struggled against them last year. I hope to see Carter excel but want to temper expectations.

[budwom]

Given the historical size of Duke's rotation (I dare not mention a number, but the one I have in mind is surely less than 10), I'm pretty
confident Carter will average more than 25 mpg. This assumes, of course, that he's healthy, which is a rather hopeful assumption.

[Saratoga2]

So the folks who insist that Carter won't play more than 25 mpg next season and the folks who think he will play a lot more are both correct?

Mike Krzyzewski historically plays his starters more minutes than Roy Williams plays his starters and tends to not go as deep into his bench. Thus rendering the comparison between Duke mpg and Carolina mpg somewhat tenuous.

Mark Few's relevance to the topic at hand eludes me.

I had posted earlier that he had two talented big men centers in Karnowski and Sarbonis and neither played more than 25 minutes. Mark Few was their coach at the time.

[NSDukeFan]

Having watched Carter play a lot in high school, he is a big guy and he does get winded carrying 250 lbs+ up and down the court. That would argue for 25 mpg.

But he is nimble and knows how to use positioning and his great length to contest shots - I expect him to be less foul-prone as a freshman big than Harry, Marques or Chase for example. He'll foul out of a few games but I don't think fouls will hold his overall minutes down. If we squeezed 30 mpg out of big Jah, I think Coach can squeeze 30 mpg out of Carter if he is the type of college-ready talent I expect him to be out of the gate.

Of course if Javin, Bolden and Vrank all have great summers, maybe we'll only need a productive 25-28 out of Carter (a guy can still dream of going 9 deep, right?).
I have been dreaming of a 9 or 10 + man rotation for many years, so I recommend to keep dreaming.

I attended this AAU(EYBL)game last summer when Carter went up against Deandre Ayton and Brandon McCoy. Carter went for 30/16 and blocked a number of McCoy's and Ayton's shots. People will scoff and say, "AAU? Where's the defense?", but I think the video shows Carter going at it strongly against the CalSupreme team's twin towers.
http://dukereport.com/watch-listen/watch-wendell-carter-vs-deandre-ayton-highlights-dukeofhoops/
I agree with kaze that Carter looks like a regular guy in terms of how proportionate he looks and not lanky. Except for the fact that he is 6'10 250, of course. I think he is good to be fun to watch (of course , I think that about all Duke players , which is why I so enjoy their seasons so much).

[CDu]

I had posted earlier that he had two talented big men centers in Karnowski and Sarbonis and neither played more than 25 minutes. Mark Few was their coach at the time.

To be fair, they had Kyle Wiltjer too. Which makes it hard to play both Karnowski (who had endurance issues anyway) and the freshman Sabonis both 25 mpg. Wiltjer played 28 mpg, Karnowski 24.5, and Sabonis 21.6. The next year, with Karnowski hurt, both Sabonis and Wiltjer played over 30 mpg.

Unless you meant this year, when the freshman Collins averaged 17 mpg and Karnowski averaged 23 mpg. Karnowski was even less suited to play major minutes given his back surgery, and Collins was too foul prone.

[Spanarkel]

I'm still skeptical - in a good way? - about his ability to translate his size and strength to the college game for a couple reasons. First, Ayton and McCoy are not college juniors and seniors. They are tall and long, but Carter has a size advantage against both of those players. Will he be able to translate that to someone that is 21-22 years old and has spent years in a high major college gym working on his lower body strength? Think of a guy like John Egbunu at Florida. Is Carter going to struggle against a physically mature player like that? It seems that most teams have rugged juniors and seniors like that. Marques Bolden really struggled against them last year. I hope to see Carter excel but want to temper expectations.

I think that your concerns are quite valid and insightful. Even though Ayton and McCoy are tall/long(, but McCoy's wingspan is recorded as the same as his height), they don't have the build of college upperclassmen, and they don't leverage their body like a lot of college players. And most of the other players on the court outside of Carter, Ayton and McCoy were no taller than ~6'5" and were relative stringbeans. I did have the chance to stand right behind Wendell for about 10 minutes while the prior game was finishing, and he seemed to be "locked in" on his upcoming challenge.