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BG05
04-08-2017, 06:05 AM
Forgive me if i should know this already, but I am wondering about the prospect of Duke playing two bigs next year -- Carter and Bolden. Bolden seems like the classic "rim protector" kind of guy. I don't know that much about Carter. If he is more of what used to be called a power forward, then they would mesh well....IF K will play both of them at the same time. Will K play two "real" bigs at the same time (rather than slide a wing into a stretch 4 position, like Tatum/Ingram/Parker)? If so, do Carter and Bolden's skill set mesh or are they two of the same thing? And then how would Bamba, if he were to come, fit into this?

gocanes0506
04-08-2017, 06:13 AM
I'll indulge. We could see a lot of Zone D next year if thats the case. Teams will drive on whomever is covering the 4 slot all game. Much like Tatum when guarded by Luke Maye.

I miss the days of some high low offense with 2 hard working big men.But that type of O doesn't exist anymore.

niveklaen
04-08-2017, 07:53 AM
That type of o just got a title.

Saratoga2
04-08-2017, 08:45 AM
Forgive me if i should know this already, but I am wondering about the prospect of Duke playing two bigs next year -- Carter and Bolden. Bolden seems like the classic "rim protector" kind of guy. I don't know that much about Carter. If he is more of what used to be called a power forward, then they would mesh well...IF K will play both of them at the same time. Will K play two "real" bigs at the same time (rather than slide a wing into a stretch 4 position, like Tatum/Ingram/Parker)? If so, do Carter and Bolden's skill set mesh or are they two of the same thing? And then how would Bamba, if he were to come, fit into this?

Players of the size of Bolden and Carter are unlikely to handle more than 25 minutes a game not to mention the tendency to foul of most younger players. There is plenty of room for a Bamba, DeLaurier and/or Vrank to get PT during the season. If we get Knox, then the available PT is shortened quite a bit for the others.

Troublemaker
04-08-2017, 08:57 AM
Yes, it could happen. Duke has done it in the past.

As for whether it could work...

On offense, they have to offensive rebound really well. There's no way around that. UNC doesn't consistently have very good offenses because postups are good; in fact, postups are one of the worst shots in basketball. (Let Dan D'antoni explain it below.) UNC is a GREAT offensive rebounding program; that's the key to their success. It was pretty typical for Meeks to miss on his inefficient postup but then go get the rebound and putback.

And on defense, Carter's mobility will be key. I think he's pretty mobile for a big guy and it could work. Regardless, we'll probably switch 1 thru 3 instead of 1 thru 4 when playing two bigs.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yIOPpuh9no

TKG
04-08-2017, 09:32 AM
I'll indulge. We could see a lot of Zone D next year if thats the case. Teams will drive on whomever is covering the 4 slot all game. Much like Tatum when guarded by Luke Maye.

I miss the days of some high low offense with 2 hard working big men.But that type of O doesn't exist anymore.


IF we decide to play more zone next year, with the multiple bigs scenario mentioned above, I hope/pray we start to install the zone and its principles in the summer. I am not convinced that we can flip a switch to play zone as a "last resort" when our man-to-man falters. We will be young next season, even more so than this season and teaching the subtleties of K's desired D might not be any more successful than this year.

53n206
04-08-2017, 09:39 AM
Thanks Troublemaker for posting d'Antonio's interesting explanation and analytics of the post up.

chriso
04-08-2017, 10:32 AM
Forgive me if i should know this already, but I am wondering about the prospect of Duke playing two bigs next year -- Carter and Bolden. Bolden seems like the classic "rim protector" kind of guy. I don't know that much about Carter. If he is more of what used to be called a power forward, then they would mesh well...IF K will play both of them at the same time. Will K play two "real" bigs at the same time (rather than slide a wing into a stretch 4 position, like Tatum/Ingram/Parker)? If so, do Carter and Bolden's skill set mesh or are they two of the same thing? And then how would Bamba, if he were to come, fit into this?

I think if Grayson leaves (no!) and we don't get Knox (I don't think we get Bamba since Bolden's back and that's fine) we go to a 2 big lineup as that will be our strength. But if we get Knox and Grayson stays it's probably Knox at the 4. Knox at the 3 would be nice with the 2 bigs, which might happen if Grayson leaves. But I think if Knox comes he'll likely be at the 4. But man a twin towers would be nice and would utilize our frontcourt depth. :) Who do you think will be the biggest breakout player other than Jackson/Bolden next year? I say Vrank, with Delaurier second. I think Vrank has some game.

lotusland
04-08-2017, 11:27 AM
I suspect K prefers a shooter at the 4 spot if we have one ready to contribute. But, if we don't get Knox, the stretch 4 options are limited to Jack White. In that case, I think K might play 2 true bigs with Carter at the 4 spot. However, if we get Knox but not Duval AND we lose Grayson, we're left w/o a good option at the 3 spot, other than Knox, which might also force a 2 big lineup.

If Grayson stays and we get Knox, Duval and Bamba - I think Knox eventually settles in at the 4 because his quickness allows him to defend the 4 better without fouling out. Then I suspect we have a underutilized "high level" recruit who expects to be drafted next spring riding the pine (Bolden again is my guess). The underutilized big then gets the a few minutes here and there that don't help him or Duke very much but push Vrank completely out of the rotation. Vrank then, with only one year of eligibility left, could reasonable decide that a transfer and redshirt year are his best option. I'm sure Mark Few would be all over that :).

That leaves us with Javin/Jack playing Center in 2018. I call this the doomsday scenario:).

CajunDevil
04-08-2017, 11:40 AM
Carter won't have trouble guarding other PFs. He's done well getting into his stance and moving his feet on the all-star circuit when called upon for D. So, I think a Bolden & Carter tandem would be solid defensively so long as help principles are quickly learned (always hard for young players). However, Duke's offense wouldn't quit be so free flowing or able to stretch the floor as in years past, unless Carter becomes a deep threat, and judging from his 22% on 3s in HS that is doubtful. On the other hand, having an elite post scorer, which is what Carter would be, and a super quick, physical, penetrating pg (Duval) along with Grayson and Knox on wings would be a well-balanced, potent offense. I don't want to see a 206 lb PF in Knox. I just think such a slender PF, while spreading the floor on O would be a liability on the D backboard and defensively, in general.

Newton_14
04-08-2017, 11:57 AM
I think if Grayson leaves (no!) and we don't get Knox (I don't think we get Bamba since Bolden's back and that's fine) we go to a 2 big lineup as that will be our strength. But if we get Knox and Grayson stays it's probably Knox at the 4. Knox at the 3 would be nice with the 2 bigs, which might happen if Grayson leaves. But I think if Knox comes he'll likely be at the 4. But man a twin towers would be nice and would utilize our frontcourt depth. :) Who do you think will be the biggest breakout player other than Jackson/Bolden next year? I say Vrank, with Delaurier second. I think Vrank has some game.

Personally I think it will be Jack White that makes that biggest leap. He can shoot that corner 3, which is the most efficient shot in basketball per the great video Troublemaker provided us, he's big, and has imo a lot of tools in the toolkit. Don't sleep on Jack White.

Dukehky
04-08-2017, 01:19 PM
After watching the Hoop Summit practices and the game, I'm not sure this class has a real game changer. I don't think anyone other than maybe Porter (who is a boll hog and an egomaniac) and Ayton and maybe Bamba, there aren't any real one and done sure fire good pros in this class. Hard to tell from Duval, his jumper is shaky, but he is certainly explosive.

For our purposes, Knox, Carter, and Trent are not the same kind of can't miss, they're going to contribute a ton prospects that we've gotten in Tatum, Ingram, Hah, Parker the past few years. That's not to say that they're not going to be very good players for Duke, this class is just pretty weak, and I think that all of those kids would be better suited to stick around for a while. That being said, since the class is so weak, a lot of them are probably likely to leave (not necessarily our guys, just the guys in the 2017 class).

I don't know what I think about Bamba Bolden and Carter all on the same team, especially when presumably Vrank and Javin may earn a few more minutes. That's not a lot of skill other than size outside of a 15 footer from Carter.

Gonna be interesting. I trust K and Cape.

SilkyJ
04-08-2017, 02:02 PM
That type of o just got a title.

We also got one in 2010 with a similar style, though our offense didn't go through our bigs, they were just maniacs on the o-boards (which UNC also was this year).


After watching the Hoop Summit practices and the game, I'm not sure this class has a real game changer. I don't think anyone other than maybe Porter (who is a boll hog and an egomaniac) and Ayton and maybe Bamba, there aren't any real one and done sure fire good pros in this class. Hard to tell from Duval, his jumper is shaky, but he is certainly explosive.

For our purposes, Knox, Carter, and Trent are not the same kind of can't miss, they're going to contribute a ton prospects that we've gotten in Tatum, Ingram, Hah, Parker the past few years. That's not to say that they're not going to be very good players for Duke, this class is just pretty weak, and I think that all of those kids would be better suited to stick around for a while. That being said, since the class is so weak, a lot of them are probably likely to leave (not necessarily our guys, just the guys in the 2017 class).

I don't know what I think about Bamba Bolden and Carter all on the same team, especially when presumably Vrank and Javin may earn a few more minutes. That's not a lot of skill other than size outside of a 15 footer from Carter.

Gonna be interesting. I trust K and Cape.

Interesting feedback. I was just going to ask if anyone saw the game. Its a good sign that Carter and Trent are both starts on team USA last year and at the summit--it means they are towards the top of the class. I hadn't heard anyone say the 2017 class was "weak" tho. I was definitely thinking of Wendell as a OAD, but he's not a surefire top 1-2 prospect, so maybe not.

Now I have heard people say that the 2018 class is VERY weak (similar to 2016, but even worse), so maybe some of the '17 guys stick around for an extra year if they aren't ready. Don't throw tomatoes at me, but as much crap as we give Ol' Huck for keeping his top talent around and not getting them to the NBA, that strategy sure worked for them the last 2 years.

grossbus
04-08-2017, 02:18 PM
Thanks Troublemaker for posting d'Antonio's interesting explanation and analytics of the post up.

Someone should show this to coach P.

kAzE
04-08-2017, 02:31 PM
Personally I think it will be Jack White that makes that biggest leap. He can shoot that corner 3, which is the most efficient shot in basketball per the great video Troublemaker provided us, he's big, and has imo a lot of tools in the toolkit. Don't sleep on Jack White.

Wow, I got flamed really hard in Jack's "Welcome to Duke" thread when I guessed that he would be a rotation player by year 3, and you're thinking he'll be factor in year 2? Seems like Jack did enough this year to change some minds ;)

I'm not totally sure I'm on board with him making the biggest leap (it kind of of HAS to be Bolden, right?) But I do like Jack. He plays really hard, and is not afraid to mix it up down low. He's a little bit smaller than I would prefer for a combo forward, but I think his shooting ability makes up somewhat for that.

I compared him to Lee Melchionni before, but I think that's wrong, since Lee was definitely more of a perimeter guy who had a little more skill with the ball, and less scrappy than Jack. I think he could be a better version of Dave McClure, with a more reliable jump shot.

fraggler
04-08-2017, 03:31 PM
Having watched most of the video available on this class, I definitely agree that it is weak. I also would temper expectations about the impact that the freshman will have. Some might still be one and done since that is the way things are, but I'm really not as impressed with this class.

Duval definitely is a good athlete with the physical profile to be a good defender and penetrator. He has solid court vision, but makes risky/sloppy passes. His jumper also looks broken. Very much reminds me of the way Derrick Rose played, though Duval isn't the same kind of athlete.

Kevin Knox certainly looks the part of the now classic small ball power forward that K likes, but he doesn't play physical and doesn't have near the feel for the game that the last several did. He looks solid at alot, but he doesn't wow me, and I'm not sure how impactful he will be his freshman year.

Bamba's arms are crazy long and he is a solid athlete, so he could be disruptive on D just from that alone. However, he seems to have a weak base and gets easily knocked around. I see a lot of Chase Jeter and Casey Sanders in him, especially on offense. Not much touch and always off balance. He does look like he would be a solid dunk finisher off of penetration as he does seem to have good hands, but he has zero post moves.

Gary Trent, Jr. has a strong, mature frame and an OK stroke. He is not very quick or explosive, and there is not much nuance to his game. He is mostly a straigt line driver who relies on strength to muscle by defenders, but he doesn't seem like a good finisher over length and doesnt yet have counter moves. To be honest, I'm not sure why he is considered top 10. Maybe because he matured earlier and has been consistently solid. I like that he tries to play D, but I don't know if he has the footspeed to be great. He feels a lot more like a Matt Jones than a Grayson Allen or Justise Winslow.

Wendell Carter, Jr. is the recruit I trust the most coming in. Has a strong base, and doesn't get knocked around as much. Definitely no Jah on offense, but he has good hands and seems to finish well. Not particularly quick or explosive, so any perimeter play will be likely limited to pick and pop type stuff on O. I dont ever really see him defending well on the perimeter. He has an OK looking stroke, but it is slow and his free throw percentage doesn't bode well for him having enough of a perimeter game to use it at Duke. I do feel like he will be a solid defender from the get go. Seems to have a good feel for the game. I don't think he is the second coming of Brand or anything like that, but I am excited to have someone who looks so solid and hopefully ready to contribute down in the post on both ends.

Mc' Connell looks like he can definitely ball, but he needs probably 20 more pounds on his frame before he would be able to be a contributor. He is a shot maker a bit like Luke, but doesnt have quite the footwork or stroke. I like his game, I just don't know when/if he will be physically able to make an impact.

If we get everyone we are hoping for, we will have a nicely balanced class with potential at every position. I just don't see any game changers. I'm surprised that I am still surprised by some of the more extreme excitement for this class, but I guess we all see what we want to. I love Duke and am always excited for the next season, but I really feel like the talk of titles and final four potential really needs to slow down a bit until we see what these guys are actually capable of. I really believe that Grayson returning is far and away the most important piece of a team cable of a deep run than even adding someone like Duval. I think Bolden returning was very important as well. I really, really hope we see the Bolden we had in the preseason all next year.

sagegrouse
04-08-2017, 03:37 PM
I looked at starters in every season since 2005-2006. Over 12 seasons, we have had five years with two bigs in the starting lineup:


2006 67/36 Shel (36) McBob (31)
2011 74/37 MP2 (32) Kelly (27) MP1 (15)
2012 66/34 MP2 (31) Kelly (19) MP1 (16)
2013 59/36 MP2 (36) Kelly (23)
2015 64/39 Jah (38) Amile (26)

The answer is -- it's all a lot easier if one of the bigs has an outside game, like Ryan Kelly. Or, if one is an offensive dynamo like Okafor.

Any objections to including 6-10 Kelly and McRoberts and 6-9 Jefferson as "bigs?"

Dukehky
04-08-2017, 03:37 PM
I think Knox may be the most overrated prospect of the big ones out there. He's got incredible physical gifts and he has improved his jumper lately, but he looks lost when he plays with other good people.

And yes, next year's class is weak. Aside from Bagley and Williamson and probably Barrett (he is expected to re-classify).

sagegrouse
04-08-2017, 03:59 PM
I looked at starters in every season since 2005-2006. Over 12 seasons, we have had five years with two bigs in the starting lineup:


2006 67/36 Shel (36) McBob (31)
2011 74/37 MP2 (32) Kelly (27) MP1 (15)
2012 66/34 MP2 (31) Kelly (19) MP1 (16)
2013 59/36 MP2 (36) Kelly (23)
2015 64/39 Jah (38) Amile (26)

The answer is -- it's all a lot easier if one of the bigs has an outside game, like Ryan Kelly. Or, if one is an offensive dynamo like Okafor.

Any objections to including 6-10 Kelly and McRoberts and 6-9 Jefferson as "bigs?"

I shouldhave said that the first two numbers are the number of starts by "bigs" over the total number of games. The only year where we had an average of 2.0 or better was 2011, where MP2, Kelly and MP1 all got a bunch of starts.

Brockt10
04-08-2017, 04:12 PM
Wow, I got flamed really hard in Jack's "Welcome to Duke" thread when I guessed that he would be a rotation player by year 3, and you're thinking he'll be factor in year 2? Seems like Jack did enough this year to change some minds ;)

I'm not totally sure I'm on board with him making the biggest leap (it kind of of HAS to be Bolden, right?) But I do like Jack. He plays really hard, and is not afraid to mix it up down low. He's a little bit smaller than I would prefer for a combo forward, but I think his shooting ability makes up somewhat for that.

I compared him to Lee Melchionni before, but I think that's wrong, since Lee was definitely more of a perimeter guy who had a little more skill with the ball, and less scrappy than Jack. I think he could be a better version of Dave McClure, with a more reliable jump shot.

Put me on the Jack bandwagon . In his limited minutes I hardly noticed it was him.....in a good way. Mixed well, no stupid plays, good (although limited) shot selection. He has great size and is pretty athletic. No reason he can't contribute.

Saratoga2
04-08-2017, 04:35 PM
Put me on the Jack bandwagon . In his limited minutes I hardly noticed it was him....in a good way. Mixed well, no stupid plays, good (although limited) shot selection. He has great size and is pretty athletic. No reason he can't contribute.

There was a coach K comment about having to drain his knee. Hope that isn't something serious.

FadedTackyShirt
04-08-2017, 05:16 PM
Mc' Connell looks like he can definitely ball, but he needs probably 20 more pounds on his frame before he would be able to be a contributor. He is a shot maker a bit like Luke, but doesnt have quite the footwork or stroke. I like his game, I just don't know when/if he will be physically able to make an impact.

I've seen all of the signed and remaining potential recruits except for O'Connell play.

If Grayson returns and Duval comes, does O'Connell redshirt? Not a lot of minutes available with Allen, Frank, Duval, and Trent on board. By all accounts, O'Connell has considerable upside, but needs to add weight and strength.

accfanfrom1970
04-08-2017, 05:21 PM
I like Jack more than Knox. The above comment is correct, no mistakes, nothing bad. Probably deferred too much, but physically looks ready.

Olympic Fan
04-08-2017, 06:54 PM
You guys might be right, but you're seeing something in Jack White that I've never seen

CDu
04-08-2017, 07:00 PM
You guys might be right, but you're seeing something in Jack White that I've never seen

I agree. I do not believe that White will make the rotation next year, barring unforeseen circumstances.

I do believe his skill set is that of a stretch 4, but I don't think he has the size for that role. I don't think he has the quickness or the skill set to be a full-time perimeter guy. At least not at the ACC level.

Maybe he gets there down the road, but I will be very surprised if he gets there next by next year.

If we don't add either Knox or Bamba and don't add a grad transfer, I think our primary backup in the bigs rotation will be DeLaurier.

MChambers
04-08-2017, 08:01 PM
I agree. I do not believe that White will make the rotation next year, barring unforeseen circumstances.

I do believe his skill set is that of a stretch 4, but I don't think he has the size for that role. I don't think he has the quickness or the skill set to be a full-time perimeter guy. At least not at the ACC level.

Maybe he gets there down the road, but I will be very surprised if he gets there next by next year.

If we don't add either Knox or Bamba and don't add a grad transfer, I think our primary backup in the bigs rotation will be DeLaurier.

I agree with you and Oly. White has stretch 4 skills, but he's only 6'5".

sagegrouse
04-08-2017, 08:13 PM
I agree with you and Oly. White has stretch 4 skills, but he's only 6'5".

Despite being listed as 6'7", 215 lbs?

Indoor66
04-08-2017, 08:15 PM
Despite being listed as 6'7", 215 lbs?

Now, now. Don't cloud the issue with facts....

chriso
04-08-2017, 08:26 PM
Despite being listed as 6'7", 215 lbs?

White was one of those guys who, along with Vrank, always seemed to do good things while in the game. Now I realize White was a small sample size. But he definitely has some skill; as does DeLaurier. These guys would be playing at other schools. And these guys were behind future NBA players this year. I really hope we get to see these guys be a solid part of the rotation the next few years. :cool:

MChambers
04-08-2017, 08:28 PM
Despite being listed as 6'7", 215 lbs?

He really doesn't look that big on the floor. And even 6'7", 215 is not really a 4 (if Duke played positions).

dukelifer
04-08-2017, 11:43 PM
Having watched most of the video available on this class, I definitely agree that it is weak. I also would temper expectations about the impact that the freshman will have. Some might still be one and done since that is the way things are, but I'm really not as impressed with this class.

Duval definitely is a good athlete with the physical profile to be a good defender and penetrator. He has solid court vision, but makes risky/sloppy passes. His jumper also looks broken. Very much reminds me of the way Derrick Rose played, though Duval isn't the same kind of athlete.

Kevin Knox certainly looks the part of the now classic small ball power forward that K likes, but he doesn't play physical and doesn't have near the feel for the game that the last several did. He looks solid at alot, but he doesn't wow me, and I'm not sure how impactful he will be his freshman year.

Bamba's arms are crazy long and he is a solid athlete, so he could be disruptive on D just from that alone. However, he seems to have a weak base and gets easily knocked around. I see a lot of Chase Jeter and Casey Sanders in him, especially on offense. Not much touch and always off balance. He does look like he would be a solid dunk finisher off of penetration as he does seem to have good hands, but he has zero post moves.

Gary Trent, Jr. has a strong, mature frame and an OK stroke. He is not very quick or explosive, and there is not much nuance to his game. He is mostly a straigt line driver who relies on strength to muscle by defenders, but he doesn't seem like a good finisher over length and doesnt yet have counter moves. To be honest, I'm not sure why he is considered top 10. Maybe because he matured earlier and has been consistently solid. I like that he tries to play D, but I don't know if he has the footspeed to be great. He feels a lot more like a Matt Jones than a Grayson Allen or Justise Winslow.

Wendell Carter, Jr. is the recruit I trust the most coming in. Has a strong base, and doesn't get knocked around as much. Definitely no Jah on offense, but he has good hands and seems to finish well. Not particularly quick or explosive, so any perimeter play will be likely limited to pick and pop type stuff on O. I dont ever really see him defending well on the perimeter. He has an OK looking stroke, but it is slow and his free throw percentage doesn't bode well for him having enough of a perimeter game to use it at Duke. I do feel like he will be a solid defender from the get go. Seems to have a good feel for the game. I don't think he is the second coming of Brand or anything like that, but I am excited to have someone who looks so solid and hopefully ready to contribute down in the post on both ends.

Mc' Connell looks like he can definitely ball, but he needs probably 20 more pounds on his frame before he would be able to be a contributor. He is a shot maker a bit like Luke, but doesnt have quite the footwork or stroke. I like his game, I just don't know when/if he will be physically able to make an impact.

If we get everyone we are hoping for, we will have a nicely balanced class with potential at every position. I just don't see any game changers. I'm surprised that I am still surprised by some of the more extreme excitement for this class, but I guess we all see what we want to. I love Duke and am always excited for the next season, but I really feel like the talk of titles and final four potential really needs to slow down a bit until we see what these guys are actually capable of. I really believe that Grayson returning is far and away the most important piece of a team cable of a deep run than even adding someone like Duval. I think Bolden returning was very important as well. I really, really hope we see the Bolden we had in the preseason all next year.

I have watched some of the videos as well. Trent looks like a pro physically- but he is very, very raw at this point. Carter is solid but his play will be mostly around the hoop. Duval has decent vision and can get to the hoop, but is not a very good shooter. Bamba is intriguing- plays a lot on instinct and seems to have a knack for blocks. But he could easily be foul prone in his first year. At this point I would say that Allen (should he stay) and Jackson are the best shooters. None of the new guys are at the same level of Tatum, Ingram or Parker. Without Kennard, Duke will not have the offense we have seen of late. The D will need to be better by necessity. I expect a major rebuilding year ahead.

Troublemaker
04-09-2017, 10:31 AM
I disagree with those saying the 2017 high school class is weak. It looks pretty strong to me. Perhaps not as strong as 2016, but the dropoff isn't huge, imo. The major drop will occur with the 2018 class.

From Duke's perspective, we need to first finish our recruiting class strong and then hope that the incoming freshmen remain healthy. If those two things happen, we'll almost certainly get better production from the 2017 class than from the 2016 class.

Troublemaker
04-09-2017, 10:49 AM
I disagree with those saying the 2017 high school class is weak. It looks pretty strong to me. Perhaps not as strong as 2016, but the dropoff isn't huge, imo. The major drop will occur with the 2018 class.

From Duke's perspective, we need to first finish our recruiting class strong and then hope that the incoming freshmen remain healthy. If those two things happen, we'll almost certainly get better production from the 2017 class than from the 2016 class.

I should add, of course, that I'm referring to their production as freshmen. For OVERALL production -- production across many years -- it just depends on who stays and who goes and when from the two classes. If, for example, we somehow got 3 years from Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden and 4 years from Jack White and Javin DeLaurier, that'll be tough for the 2017 class to top.

richardjackson199
04-09-2017, 12:54 PM
I disagree with those saying the 2017 high school class is weak. It looks pretty strong to me. Perhaps not as strong as 2016, but the dropoff isn't huge, imo. The major drop will occur with the 2018 class.

From Duke's perspective, we need to first finish our recruiting class strong and then hope that the incoming freshmen remain healthy. If those two things happen, we'll almost certainly get better production from the 2017 class than from the 2016 class.

I concur! If we get the guys we're after, keep everybody else, and stay healthy, it will NOT be a rebuilding year. We will be very, very good and very fun to watch. These guys are only going to get better. Knox for example is quite young, Duval is the point guard missing piece we desperately need, and Bamba's potential is staggering. Just my opinion, and I really hope it gets tested.

DukieInBrasil
04-09-2017, 01:19 PM
I agree. I do not believe that White will make the rotation next year, barring unforeseen circumstances.

I do believe his skill set is that of a stretch 4, but I don't think he has the size for that role. I don't think he has the quickness or the skill set to be a full-time perimeter guy. At least not at the ACC level.

Maybe he gets there down the road, but I will be very surprised if he gets there next by next year.

If we don't add either Knox or Bamba and don't add a grad transfer, I think our primary backup in the bigs rotation will be DeLaurier.

How different is Jack White from Luke Maye? Seems like Maye likes to play inside a bit more, but he is a decent 3pt shooter. I don't recall White really playing inside at all, but he can shoot the 3 ok. Luke played more as a Fr than White did, which is not much of a surprise given the different philosophies of K and Roy.

DukieInBrasil
04-09-2017, 01:24 PM
He really doesn't look that big on the floor. And even 6'7", 215 is not really a 4 (if Duke played positions).

that's not all that different from Winslow, who played the 4 for large stretches in 2015. There's no pre-defined size of what a stretch-4 should be, it's more about the skill set. Winslow has/d a better handle than what White has displayed so far, so he was able to change up his game a bit more than perhaps White will. Winslow was strong and was a very good athlete, which helped him compensate for a relatively small size for a '4'. Jack looks pretty strong, but i don't really have any idea about his athleticism.

CDu
04-09-2017, 01:52 PM
How different is Jack White from Luke Maye? Seems like Maye likes to play inside a bit more, but he is a decent 3pt shooter. I don't recall White really playing inside at all, but he can shoot the 3 ok. Luke played more as a Fr than White did, which is not much of a surprise given the different philosophies of K and Roy.

Maye is an inch taller and 20lbs heavier. White is probably a little quicker/more athletic. But their games are similar. I just don't believe he has the athleticism to be effective at the 4 with his size. But if he did play the 4, he would be that style of 4.

lotusland
04-09-2017, 09:47 PM
You guys might be right, but you're seeing something in Jack White that I've never seen

I think the comments mostly compare to Knox who we haven't seen at all. I've seen enough OAD 3/4 combo guys at Duke to not doubt Knox counld be fantastic even though some folks who pay closers attention than me are throwing some shade on the Ingram, Tatum comparisons. Count me with the Jack White believers. I love his aggressiveness and physicality. He's got a confident shot and good athleticism to boot. I'd love to see a Jack and Javin turn it on this year.

UrinalCake
04-09-2017, 10:22 PM
Wow, I'm really surprised and a little disappointed to hear such underwhelming reviews of this year's incoming class. I know there's always a degree of uncertainty with freshmen, especially bigs, but the elite guys that we've brought in recently (ranked in the top 5) have all been able to contribute big time in their first years. I was hoping Carter would be a guy would could structure our offense around like Jabari, that Duval would be a game-changer with his ability to penetrate, and that Knox would be a versatile guy off the bench who could fill multiple roles. I'm not expecting Bamba to come now that Bolden is back, but some have described him as a generational type of talent on the defensive end (and yes, I'm aware that that term gets overused, it seems like every year there is a "once in a lifetime" type of player :)

Anyways, in my mind I was thinking that if Allen came back and we were able to land Duval and Knox, that we would be a top-5 team despite our lack of experience. If what I'm reading in this thread is correct, it sounds like we'd be more like a top-25 team that would be building for the following season.

Olympic Fan
04-09-2017, 10:28 PM
I think the comments mostly compare to Knox who we haven't seen at all. I've seen enough OAD 3/4 combo guys at Duke to not doubt Knox counld be fantastic even though some folks who pay closers attention than me are throwing some shade on the Ingram, Tatum comparisons. Count me with the Jack White believers. I love his aggressiveness and physicality. He's got a confident shot and good athleticism to boot. I'd love to see a Jack and Javin turn it on this year.

Again, you might be right, but I don't see what you see (especially the "good athleticism").

He played 61 minutes -- all in garbage time. Maybe being on the floor with the likes of Besser, Paglicua and Robinson has warped some perceptions. He does look good compared to them -- but they are not ACC players either.

Can you think of any player in the modern era who played as little as a freshman as White, then was a contributor the next season?

There are a handful who eventually became contributors -- some of mentioned Lee Melchionni. His freshman year was similar to White's. But his sophomore year wasn't much better. He only became a rotation player as a junior. Semi Ojeleye and Michael Gbinije only played a little more than White as freshmen and both became outstanding players -- but it took both of them years.

It's possible that Jack White becomes a contributor before he's through at Duke, but I'd be VERY surprised if it happens next year. And while I have been critical of Kevin Knox's play in the two all-star games, I think he has MUCH more upside next season than White.

sagegrouse
04-09-2017, 11:01 PM
Can you think of any player in the modern era who played as little as a freshman as White, then was a contributor the next season?

There are a handful who eventually became contributors -- some of mentioned Lee Melchionni. His freshman year was similar to White's. But his sophomore year wasn't much better. He only became a rotation player as a junior. Semi Ojeleye and Michael Gbinije only played a little more than White as freshmen and both became outstanding players -- but it took both of them years.




You have to look at years where we had a bunch of people leave. John Smith went from 107 minutes in 1986 to 720 minutes in 1987 (Nessley from 91 to 376).

Troublemaker
04-09-2017, 11:10 PM
Wow, I'm really surprised and a little disappointed to hear such underwhelming reviews of this year's incoming class. I know there's always a degree of uncertainty with freshmen, especially bigs, but the elite guys that we've brought in recently (ranked in the top 5) have all been able to contribute big time in their first years. I was hoping Carter would be a guy would could structure our offense around like Jabari, that Duval would be a game-changer with his ability to penetrate, and that Knox would be a versatile guy off the bench who could fill multiple roles. I'm not expecting Bamba to come now that Bolden is back, but some have described him as a generational type of talent on the defensive end (and yes, I'm aware that that term gets overused, it seems like every year there is a "once in a lifetime" type of player :)

Anyways, in my mind I was thinking that if Allen came back and we were able to land Duval and Knox, that we would be a top-5 team despite our lack of experience. If what I'm reading in this thread is correct, it sounds like we'd be more like a top-25 team that would be building for the following season.

Well, there is hardly consensus about this class being weak.

Probably worth re-visiting this discussion AFTER Duke signs another player (or two or three). I don't want to waste time arguing over a hypothetical class that may not come to pass.

COYS
04-09-2017, 11:13 PM
You have to look at years where we had a bunch of people leave. John Smith went from 107 minutes in 1986 to 720 minutes in 1987 (Nessley from 91 to 376).

Ryan Kelly jumped from only 14% of the available minutes played (and some of that was due to Mason missing time healing from a preseason wrist injury that inflated his already tiny minutes numbers) to 50% his sophomore year. Jack played substantially less than Ryan, but if we don't land any other recruits, I could see his numbers take a similarly large jump next year. They'd almost have to.

I do expect Duke to land another year player or two, some way or another.

sagegrouse
04-10-2017, 12:00 AM
Ryan Kelly jumped from only 14% of the available minutes played (and some of that was due to Mason missing time healing from a preseason wrist injury that inflated his already tiny minutes numbers) to 50% his sophomore year. Jack played substantially less than Ryan, but if we don't land any other recruits, I could see his numbers take a similarly large jump next year. They'd almost have to.

I do expect Duke to land another year player or two, some way or another.

Moreover, we are losing at least six players this year with more minutes than Jack White. Somebody's gonna have to play next year, and, no, I don't think all the minutes will go to freshmen. I expect White to play.

Olympic Fan
04-10-2017, 12:56 AM
You have to look at years where we had a bunch of people leave. John Smith went from 107 minutes in 1986 to 720 minutes in 1987 (Nessley from 91 to 376).

Smith is a good example -- he went from 91 minutes as a freshman in 1986 (not 107) to 720 minutes as a soph in 1987. It was Nessley who had 107 minutes in 1986 and 376 in 1987. But Nessley was a senior in 1987 ... His numbers actually went down between his freshman and sophomore years.

So Smith does count ... and that was 32 years ago.

Ryan Kelly did make a big jump after his freshman year -- but he played almost four times as much as a freshman as White.

Sage points out that we are losing at least six players who played more minutes than White. At the moment, we have five returning who played more than White, but only two Allen and Jackson played significantly more. Bolden, Vrank and DeLaurier played just a few minutes more than White.

Where I disagree is Sage's statement: Somebody's gonna have to play next year, and, no, I don't think all the minutes will go to freshmen

I think the extra minutes next year will go to Bolden and the freshmen. Maybe to DeLaurier, who I think does have great potential.

Look at it this way, the dynamics in the post between Bolden-Carter-Vrank-DeLaurier and maybe Bamba won't impact White's minutes much. Allen, if he stays, and Jackson will get major minutes on the perimeter. So will Trent. If Duval comes, he gets major minutes at the point. If Knox comes, I think he splits his time between the 3 and the 4. That doesn't leave much time for White.

Still, only Jackson and Trent are (almost) certain to be on hand next year. If that's the case, then, yes, White could be forced into duty (and god help us).

But if we keep Allen and add Duval or Knox, it's hard to see where White gets any significant minutes.

I hate to be the Negative Nelly in this debate. Those of you who know me, know I am a huge optimist when it comes to Duke basketball. But I just don't get the infatuation with Jack White. I've seen everything he's done -- the open practice, the Blue-White scrimmage, the two exhibition games, the 61 minutes in the regular season -- and saw nothing that makes me think he's ready to be -- or even close to being -- a contributor.

lotusland
04-10-2017, 06:08 AM
Again, you might be right, but I don't see what you see (especially the "good athleticism").

He played 61 minutes -- all in garbage time. Maybe being on the floor with the likes of Besser, Paglicua and Robinson has warped some perceptions. He does look good compared to them -- but they are not ACC players either.

Can you think of any player in the modern era who played as little as a freshman as White, then was a contributor the next season?

There are a handful who eventually became contributors -- some of mentioned Lee Melchionni. His freshman year was similar to White's. But his sophomore year wasn't much better. He only became a rotation player as a junior. Semi Ojeleye and Michael Gbinije only played a little more than White as freshmen and both became outstanding players -- but it took both of them years.

It's possible that Jack White becomes a contributor before he's through at Duke, but I'd be VERY surprised if it happens next year. And while I have been critical of Kevin Knox's play in the two all-star games, I think he has MUCH more upside next season than White.

We're probably splitting hairs here but Jack looks like he has good but not great athleticism to me.

https://youtu.be/NLDVdrC9DZQ

I thought Jack showed promise in his limited play this year and he probably would have played more on a less talented team. With that said, if Jack is 20+ mpg player next year I think Duke probably doesn't finish in the top 10.

lotusland
04-10-2017, 06:18 AM
I should add, of course, that I'm referring to their production as freshmen. For OVERALL production -- production across many years -- it just depends on who stays and who goes and when from the two classes. If, for example, we somehow got 3 years from Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden and 4 years from Jack White and Javin DeLaurier, that'll be tough for the 2017 class to top.

Great point. OAD recruits are considered bust if they aren't stars from the jump. Amile was actually a much more important recruit than any of the 2017 freshman including Tatum. Jackson could very easily surpass Tatum as well.

lotusland
04-10-2017, 07:41 AM
Moreover, we are losing at least six players this year with more minutes than Jack White. Somebody's gonna have to play next year, and, no, I don't think all the minutes will go to freshmen. I expect White to play.

Also Ryan benefited from a recruiting period where Duke missed on non-Plumlee post recruits. Ryan was an upper class man when Amile came on board. If HB had Skyped K, Ryan would have been glued to the bench his sophomore year. Likewise I think Jack's PT this year depends largely on recruiting. If we miss on Duval, Knox and Bamba AND Grayson leaves, Jack is definitely in the rotation. If Duke needs another shooter(very possible) Jack is a better option than Javin. So I think we have to wait on Grayson, Knox, Duval and Bamba before the minutes projections can start in earnest.

jimsumner
04-10-2017, 11:37 AM
Also Ryan benefited from a recruiting period where Duke missed on non-Plumlee post recruits. Ryan was an upper class man when Amile came on board. If HB had Skyped K, Ryan would have been glued to the bench his sophomore year. Likewise I think Jack's PT this year depends largely on recruiting. If we miss on Duval, Knox and Bamba AND Grayson leaves, Jack is definitely in the rotation. If Duke needs another shooter(very possible) Jack is a better option than Javin. So I think we have to wait on Grayson, Knox, Duval and Bamba before the minutes projections can start in earnest.

If Duke misses on Duval, Knox and Bamba and Allen leaves, then I would expect to see some grad-student transfers competing for PT next season.

devildeac
04-10-2017, 12:01 PM
If Duke misses on Duval, Knox and Bamba and Allen leaves, then I would expect to see some grad-student transfers competing for PT next season.

7345

:o

Indoor66
04-10-2017, 12:27 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7345&stc=1

:o

Methinks the Good Doctor sees a business opportunity looming on the horizon? :cool:

devildeac
04-10-2017, 12:33 PM
Methinks the Good Doctor sees a business opportunity looming on the horizon? :cool:


I'll make myself available. ;)

jv001
04-10-2017, 10:04 PM
Moreover, we are losing at least six players this year with more minutes than Jack White. Somebody's gonna have to play next year, and, no, I don't think all the minutes will go to freshmen. I expect White to play.

You could be right and White will play but if we get Duval and Knox, I just don't see Jack getting rotation minutes. He wasn't bad this season, but he looked a little stiff to me. Not saying he's a stiff :cool: but I didn't see much fluidness. GoDuke!

richardjackson199
04-10-2017, 10:09 PM
I'll make myself available. ;)

Me too:cool: