On to 2017-2018

[davekay1971]

So now that the ugliness of the NCAA tournament has reached its disgusting conclusion, time to turn the page.

Where are we for the upcoming season?

Obviously there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty. There can still be movement into, and out of, the draft. And there can be movement among the incoming freshmen.

Just looking at Duke, however, there's plenty of reason for this to be a bright, beautiful, sunshiny blue day.

1) With Bolden returning, we have a post player who was considered NBA one-and-done talent before injuries essentially trashed his freshman year. If he can stay healthy for the off-season, and use the experience of his first year as motivation, he could have a heck of a sophomore campaign

2) Our backcourt should be sensational. Allen, Kennard, and Jackson all appear, at this moment, likely to return.

3) DeLaurier and Vrank both showed potential to develop into significant contributors in their sophomore and junior (respectively) seasons.

4) Carter and Trent both should be impact players this season, with Carter complimenting Bolden and Trent adding to a loaded backcourt.

If there are no more departures from Duke, as much as we'll miss Jefferson and Matt Jones, and Tatum and the Potential-of-a-Healthy-Harry-Giles (I'll never forget that block-to-throwing-down-the-alley-oop moment against UNC, Harry...thank you for that), this team will be more mature in the backcourt, with plenty of talent and depth to contend for a title.

And that's the job: forget what the NCAA may or may not do to the TarHeels' fraudulent record (fwiw - the 2017 title shouldn't be touched unless some evidence is found that this team was ineligible). Our friendly neighbors just became the ACC team with the most recently won national championship. Time to take that away from them.

Addendum: Edited to correct the errors accfanfrom1970 pointed out. Thanks for the assist. Time for more coffee.

[accfanfrom1970]

3) DeLaurier and Vrank both showed potential to develop into significant contributors in their sophomore seasons.

Vrank will be a junior....

4) Pace and Trent both should be impact players this season, with Pace complimenting Bolden and Trent adding to a loaded backcourt.

Pace? You mean Carter? Carter will be an impact player....

[davekay1971]

3) DeLaurier and Vrank both showed potential to develop into significant contributors in their sophomore seasons.

Vrank will be a junior...

4) Pace and Trent both should be impact players this season, with Pace complimenting Bolden and Trent adding to a loaded backcourt.

Pace? You mean Carter? Carter will be an impact player...

Yep. You're right on both counts. Carter. From Pace Academy. And yes. Impact player.

[olegreg]

Kennard is gone imo. Stock will never be higher plus he turns 21 in june. Risk is to high to return. Grayson probably returns.

[moonpie23]

Duvall comes to duke and we soar again....

[olegreg]

Duval
Frank
Knox
Wendell
Bolden

Allen
Trent
Javin/vrank

Jack and alex for garbage pt

[budwom]

Kennard is gone imo. Stock will never be higher plus he turns 21 in june. Risk is to high to return. Grayson probably returns.

yeah, I think it is enormously unlikely that Kennard and Allen both return.

[stedge]

I think it unlikely we have more than one of the three guards back (jackson, kennard, grayson). Then hope for duvall. And knox. That is it.

Starting 5
Duvall
Jackson
Knox
Carter
Bolden

I know nothing. Just guessing.

[Wander]

1) With Bolden returning, we have a post player who was considered NBA one-and-done talent before injuries essentially trashed his freshman year. If he can stay healthy for the off-season, and use the experience of his first year as motivation, he could have a heck of a sophomore campaign


This is just a guess, but while I think injuries were responsible for Giles' poor play, I don't think that's the case for Bolden. He just looked pretty lost out there to me. So it seems more likely to me that he is just a talented player who needs practice and time to develop and learn. I do expect him to be much better next year, though.



as much as we'll miss Jefferson and Matt Jones

Yeah, this is the biggest question for me. We're losing our two (three with Tatum?) best defensive players on what was not a great defensive team. I think we're overrated right now as one of the Vegas favorites heading into next season because of this. I do think we have a chance to be a really good defensive team, but it's far from a given.

[CDu]

Duval
Frank
Knox
Wendell
Bolden

Allen
Trent
Javin/vrank

Jack and alex for garbage pt

There is absolutely no way that Allen would be coming off the bench if he returns. A senior captain, former All-American coming off the bench? Nah. Not gonna happen.

If we are fortunate enough to get Duval and Knox and retain Allen, then one of Jackson, Bolden, and Knox would come off the bench.

[devilpadre]

Why is there no discussion of Jeter? If he gets healthy and has a good summer, he could be a factor next season. If he is, the team can be very large inside.

[CDu]

Why is there no discussion of Jeter? If he gets healthy and has a good summer, he could be a factor next season. If he is, the team can be very large inside.

Umm... you might want to read a few more threads. I suggest the "Jeter gone" thread.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Still way too many unknown variables:

Luke, Grayson, Frank, Duval, Knox, and Bamba.

[Coballs]

Why is there no discussion of Jeter? If he gets healthy and has a good summer, he could be a factor next season. If he is, the team can be very large inside.

Just a guess, but maybe because he formally announced that he's transferring.

[olegreg]

From everything I gather, luke leans to declare and grayson to return. Duval seems to have a shoe in. Bamba no clue. Knox unc or duke, says he committing in April after jordan brand game. Fully expect berry and bradley to still have there names in the nba draft. Givin the time frame he set I say Duke. Said he wants to be 1&done and a national championship.

[Gilby_10]

Here are my questions for next season.

1) The obvious one with will Grayson or Luke be back?

2) Who is going to play defense on next years team? As was mentioned earlier, this was one of the poorer defensive teams in the nation, and with Amile, Matt, and Jayson all gone, they only get worse on that end of the floor.

3) Point guard, Duke needs one and fast. I'm not sold on Frank being a point guard in Coach K's system. I haven't really looked into any grad transfers but Duval would help a little (still not the true point guard coach k loves to have)

All in all, this was a very up and down year as a fan but can't wait until October. I'm from South Dakota and if anyone would like to host a guy from the midwest during basketball season I'm all ears.

[olegreg]

Duval is good at basketball like really good. He helps 110%. He's top 5 player in his class.

[Edouble]

Here are my questions for next season.

1) The obvious one with will Grayson or Luke be back?

2) Who is going to play defense on next years team? As was mentioned earlier, this was one of the poorer defensive teams in the nation, and with Amile, Matt, and Jayson all gone, they only get worse on that end of the floor.

3) Point guard, Duke needs one and fast. I'm not sold on Frank being a point guard in Coach K's system. I haven't really looked into any grad transfers but Duval would help a little (still not the true point guard coach k loves to have)

All in all, this was a very up and down year as a fan but can't wait until October. I'm from South Dakota and if anyone would like to host a guy from the midwest during basketball season I'm all ears.

Dude... what? Duval is the top PG in the class and #5 overall in the RSCI. He's a pure point guard and most likely would help tremendously.

[Troublemaker]

This is just a guess, but while I think injuries were responsible for Giles' poor play, I don't think that's the case for Bolden. He just looked pretty lost out there to me. So it seems more likely to me that he is just a talented player who needs practice and time to develop and learn. I do expect him to be much better next year, though.

Well, I suppose Coach K could be just protecting his player, but he's repeatedly said this season that injury affected Marques' season, including in yesterday's press release:

“We’re thrilled that Marques will continue to be part of our program,” Krzyzewski said. “In addition to being a talented basketball player, he’s an outstanding young man from a great family. It’s unfortunate that his freshman season was impacted by injury, but he has an opportunity to have a great summer and a special sophomore season.”



Yeah, this is the biggest question for me. We're losing our two (three with Tatum?) best defensive players on what was not a great defensive team. I think we're overrated right now as one of the Vegas favorites heading into next season because of this. I do think we have a chance to be a really good defensive team, but it's far from a given.

For sure. Let's complete a starting lineup first before thinking about favorite status.

[Gilby_10]

Dude... what? Duval is the top PG in the class and #5 overall in the RSCI. He's a pure point guard and most likely would help tremendously.

Ok the "help a little" was an understatement but am I the only one who misses having a point guard Coach K can have for 3-4 years and can run a team like a veteran?

[Troublemaker]

2) Who is going to play defense on next years team? As was mentioned earlier, this was one of the poorer defensive teams in the nation, and with Amile, Matt, and Jayson all gone, they only get worse on that end of the floor.


Well, it was still a top-50 defense, but you're right that it needs to be much, much better.

If we hit on a couple of recruiting targets and stay healthy, I think Duke will have better size inside and better quickness on the perimeter next season. That will help a lot.

[olegreg]

Well tyus wasn't expected to be 1&done. And derryck who knows, clearly wasn't ready as freshmen. Showed flashes of brilliance. But would have been perfect for 3 or 4 year player at pg.

[Gilby_10]

Well tyus wasn't expected to be 1&done. And derryck who knows, clearly wasn't ready as freshmen. Showed flashes of brilliance. But would have perfect for 3 or 4 year player at pg.

Absolutely agree with Thorton, I thought about him a lot this year

[TruBlu]

For sure. Let's complete a starting lineup first before thinking about favorite status.

After the turbulence of this past season, even when we think we know the starting lineup for next year, I am going to NOT think about any favorite status.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sometimes I feel like DBR is a wormhole and every thread devolves into the same handful of discussions.

There's still a LOT of moving parts to settle in before we finalize our roster for next year. I suppose we can try and guess at where things go, but I personally will wait and see what happens before getting over-excited or starting my doomsday prep.

[Jackson]

Does anyone know of a timeline as to when Grayson or Luke would make a decision? They both can test the waters, not hire an agent and still come back. Also interesting that Kevin Knox has not made a decision yet. It would seem that he has all of the information in terms of who is going or staying. I can't imagine Bradley and his decision at UNCheats would have any impact. I keep hearing Duval is as good as ours, but I am still apprehensive. This is by far the worst time of the year, especially after last night.

[olegreg]

Mr.Rowe expects 1 of kennard or allen to announce this week. Knox has official visit to mizzo April 9th. Said to decide mid April.

[CDu]

Does anyone know of a timeline as to when Grayson or Luke would make a decision? They both can test the waters, not hire an agent and still come back. Also interesting that Kevin Knox has not made a decision yet. It would seem that he has all of the information in terms of who is going or staying. I can't imagine Bradley and his decision at UNCheats would have any impact. I keep hearing Duval is as good as ours, but I am still apprehensive. This is by far the worst time of the year, especially after last night.

I believe the early entry deadline is April 23. So we will know if they enter their names by then. If they declare for the draft, they could presumably pull out of the draft by June 12. But I would expect them to either enter and stay in or just not enter. So I suspect that April 23 is the date of interest.

[devilpadre]

Umm... you might want to read a few more threads. I suggest the "Jeter gone" thread.

Thanks. I am only an occasional visitor here and I missed his transfer. Sorry to see him go.

[Olympic Fan]

Still way too many unknown variables:

Luke, Grayson, Frank, Duval, Knox, and Bamba.

Absolutely the right answer. The decisions by those six players will be determine whether we are among the preseason favorites of a team with a Sweet 16 ceiling.

BTW: Duke currently one of three teams (with Kentucky and Louisville) listed as 10-1 favorites in the early Vegas betting lines. That's ridiculous too -- Louisville has to wait to see if Mitchell, Deng and Johnson pull out of the draft.

I THINK the decision by Bolden to return makes it less likely that we get Bamba (it's possible, just less likely). If Allen and Kennard both return, it makes it less likely we get Duval.

I'm hearing we have nothing to worry about with Frank Jackson.

[Reilly]

...

I'm hearing we have nothing to worry about with Frank Jackson.

I was curious how Frank's Duke numbers compared to Will Avery's and Tyus Jones's.

Avery: 74 g, 25.5 mins, 11.9 ppg, 3.8 asts, 37% on 3.
Tyus: 39 g, 33.9 mins, 11.8 ppg, 5.6 asts, 38% on 3.
Frank: 36 g, 24.9 mins, 10.9 ppg, 1.7 asts, 39.5% on 3.

[CDu]

I'm hearing we have nothing to worry about with Frank Jackson.

Not that I disagree with your information, nor do I doubt you know people in the know. But this seems like it should fall in the rumor mongering category. Right? It's clearly a rumor, with no source provided. I mean, are we only not allowed to "rumor monger" if it is bad news?

Again, not in any way doubting what you have said here is true. But it seems like we should aim for consistency on the boards.

[CDu]

I was curious how Frank's Duke numbers compared to Will Avery's and Tyus Jones's.

Avery: 74 g, 25.5 mins, 11.9 ppg, 3.8 asts, 37% on 3.
Tyus: 39 g, 33.9 mins, 11.8 ppg, 5.6 asts, 38% on 3.
Frank: 36 g, 24.9 mins, 10.9 ppg, 1.7 asts, 39.5% on 3.

Posting Avery's career numbers is a bit silly as he was MUCH more impactful as a sophomore than as a freshman. But the important number to look at there is the assist rate (as well as the assist/turnover ratio). Jackson is going to have to be a PG or a backup combo guard in the NBA. So he's going to need to show he can run an offense and create for others.

[Rich]

If Allen and Kennard both return, it makes it less likely we get Duval.

This is a Sophie's choice. I absolutely love what Allen and Kennard bring to the table in terms of experience, offensive power, and their love of Duke, but this year showed me that to be elite we need a point first guard, not a two guard trying to figure out the point. I think getting someone like Duval is really key to future success, although I have trouble wishing away either Kennard or Allen. In the pros (and perhaps at Kentucky), one of those guys could offer to take a pay cut to make salary space for a necessary cog.

[Troublemaker]

Not that I disagree with your information, nor do I doubt you know people in the know. But this seems like it should fall in the rumor mongering category. Right? It's clearly a rumor, with no source provided. I mean, are we only not allowed to "rumor monger" if it is bad news?

Again, not in any way doubting what you have said here is true. But it seems like we should aim for consistency on the boards.

I think journalists like Oly or Sumner are easy exceptions to the rule.

[Doria]

I think journalists like Oly or Sumner are easy exceptions to the rule.

Agreed, and also, Jackson himself said he was going to return. Now, admittedly, that was in a goofing around video all about the virtues of different sneakers, but it was really just tossed out there as if he didn't have to think about it. So one can read away or not...

Honestly, with Bolden's return/staying, I'm really excited for next year. I have zero expectations, except that I'm going to have a good time watching Duke basketball, as I did this year, for the most part. Don't care where we are ranked preseason at all.

Obviously, last night isn't the result I wanted, but recent history suggests that sometimes (well, three), when one of Duke or Carolina wins the tourney, the other steps up and at least becomes a finalist. It's not overwhelming evidence. Like anything else, take it as you will!

[lotusland]

Duval
Frank
Knox
Wendell
Bolden

Allen
Trent
Javin/vrank

Jack and alex for garbage pt

If we miss on 3 or more of GA, Luke, Duvall and Knox, Jack White is going to be more important than Vrank or Javin imo.

[lotusland]

Dude... what? Duval is the top PG in the class and #5 overall in the RSCI. He's a pure point guard and most likely would help tremendously.

I'm sure he will but he's way behind Luke and GA on Duke need chart imo. Duke will score plenty with GA and/or Luke. Duvall does not look to be an elite defender. I would love to have all three but we need veterans more than freshmen.

[kAzE]

If Allen and Kennard both return, it makes it less likely we get Duval.


This is a Sophie's choice. I absolutely love what Allen and Kennard bring to the table in terms of experience, offensive power, and their love of Duke, but this year showed me that to be elite we need a point first guard, not a two guard trying to figure out the point. I think getting someone like Duval is really key to future success, although I have trouble wishing away either Kennard or Allen. In the pros (and perhaps at Kentucky), one of those guys could offer to take a pay cut to make salary space for a necessary cog.

What goes behind this line of thinking? Neither Luke or Grayson play the same position as Duval. They all stand to benefit from playing with each other. The best possible starting lineup next year includes all 3. IMO, Luke and Grayson's decision have no impact on Duval. If anything, their return makes it a MORE attractive situation for Duval.


Sometimes I feel like DBR is a wormhole and every thread devolves into the same handful of discussions.

There's still a LOT of moving parts to settle in before we finalize our roster for next year. I suppose we can try and guess at where things go, but I personally will wait and see what happens before getting over-excited or starting my doomsday prep.

This is basically the exact same thread as CDu's "This is going to be a very interesting offseason to say the least" thread, in which I basically posted the exact same thing that I did above in response to pretty much the same comment that Luke and Grayson need to leave so we can get Duval.

[CDu]

What goes behind this line of thinking? Neither Luke or Grayson play the same position as Duval. They all stand to benefit from playing with each other. The best possible starting lineup next year includes all 3. IMO, Luke and Grayson's decision have no impact on Duval. If anything, their return makes it a MORE attractive situation for Duval.



This is basically the exact same thread as FDD's "This will be a very interesting offseason" thread, in which I basically posted the exact same thing that I did above in response to pretty much the same comment that Luke or Grayson need to leave so we can get Duval.

I agree. If anything, their decisions affect the PT for Jackson and Trent, not Duval. If Duval is as good as advertised, the minutes at PG are there regardless of Kennard and Allen.

[sagegrouse]

This is a Sophie's choice. I absolutely love what Allen and Kennard bring to the table in terms of experience, offensive power, and their love of Duke, but this year showed me that to be elite we need a point first guard, not a two guard trying to figure out the point. I think getting someone like Duval is really key to future success, although I have trouble wishing away either Kennard or Allen. In the pros (and perhaps at Kentucky), one of those guys could offer to take a pay cut to make salary space for a necessary cog.

It's not a Sophie's Choice. Duke grad William Styron's novel involved which of her children Sophie would give up to the Nazis -- both options were hell.

[brevity]

It's not a Sophie's Choice. Duke grad William Styron's novel involved which of her children Sophie would give up to the Nazis -- both options were hell.

Cultural illiteracy aside, it's also not a choice at all. Three players have individual decisions to make. Nobody is really asking anyone to choose between one player or another.

[COYS]

I agree. If anything, their decisions affect the PT for Jackson and Trent, not Duval. If Duval is as good as advertised, the minutes at PG are there regardless of Kennard and Allen.

And I doubt it would even mean much for Jackson other than losing a few minutes of PT per game and (most likely) coming off the bench. It is no problem for Coach K to fit 4 guards into the rotation. He's not falling out of the rotation. Allen, Jackson, Kennard, and Duval would all easily coexist in the rotation. Trent would probably be affected the most, as I'd bet on him being the seventh/eighth man in the rotation. Anyway, I would be surprised if Duval made his decision based on Kennard or Allen's NBA decisions and I would be ecstatic in the unlikely event that we had all three of those guys on the roster next year.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Absolutely the right answer. The decisions by those six players will be determine whether we are among the preseason favorites of a team with a Sweet 16 ceiling.

BTW: Duke currently one of three teams (with Kentucky and Louisville) listed as 10-1 favorites in the early Vegas betting lines. That's ridiculous too -- Louisville has to wait to see if Mitchell, Deng and Johnson pull out of the draft.

I THINK the decision by Bolden to return makes it less likely that we get Bamba (it's possible, just less likely). If Allen and Kennard both return, it makes it less likely we get Duval.

I'm hearing we have nothing to worry about with Frank Jackson.

Purely conjecture, but think Frank and Bamba have the least uncertainty surrounding them, but more than enough time to sort out expectations and style of play once the 2018 roster is finalized.

The Bolden whiplash was brutal. Good to have him back, but he wasn't a freshman Elton Brand pre-injury. Would think (hope?) some would temper expectations until more data points are in following this season, but..

[ElSid]

Gary Trent Jr. is a very promising defender. K is quoted saying so in the excellent article about the Trent family. He can go some way to filling the big shoes of Matt Jones on D. Similar body type, too.

Bolden is 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan and mobile, so he has all the physical tools to be a dominant rim protector and PNR defender. If he learns not to get hurt and not foul every play, he should shine on D.

I think he should mold himself into a DeAndre Jordan type (very similar body) to make it in the league. Rebound, protect the rim, and pick and roll. Doesn't seem like the guy to step out and shoot from much beyond the free throw line. Okafor's struggle to fit in could motivate Bolden to try to fill this niche.

I'm not sure about Wendell Carter's D. I've heard him lauded more for rebounding than for defense, but they're both effort-based, so I expect he'd be a solid piece by year end. He's also intelligent and appears to be a good communicator, which will help in the D scheme.

Of potential returnees Frank/Grayson/Luke, none is a defensive standout. But experience can cover for a lot. I think Kennard was probably the least reliable on D.

Obviously big bodies like Knox and Bamba would improve potential as well.

So I'm cautiously optimistic on D for next year. I think we'll be much better than this year's team. Giles had no mobility. Bolden was frequently lost and in immediate foul trouble. And only Matt really had on ball lock down potential.

[ElSid]

Someone on this thread said Grayson as sixth man is not gonna happen, but I think it's plausible. Especially considering that's where he found new life at the end of the recent season. And it seemed to work well for him in 2015.

Team was better with Frank starting the game. Grayson was better coming off the bench. Grayson's style lends itself perfectly to a jolting 6th man microwave type...come in and go hard against tired starters or weaker subs. Better emotionally for him, and higher emotional impact on the competition.

Would be surprised if he doesn't start out as starter. Wouldn't be surprised to see him slide into this role and still play 30+ minutes.

[Rich]

Gary Trent Jr. is a very promising defender. K is quoted saying so in the excellent article about the Trent family. He can go some way to filling the big shoes of Matt Jones on D. Similar body type, too.

Bolden is 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan and mobile, so he has all the physical tools to be a dominant rim protector and PNR defender. If he learns not to get hurt and not foul every play, he should shine on D.

I think he should mold himself into a DeAndre Jordan type (very similar body) to make it in the league. Rebound, protect the rim, and pick and roll. Doesn't seem like the guy to step out and shoot from much beyond the free throw line. Okafor's struggle to fit in could motivate Bolden to try to fill this niche.

I'm not sure about Wendell Carter's D. I've heard him lauded more for rebounding than for defense, but they're both effort-based, so I expect he'd be a solid piece by year end. He's also intelligent and appears to be a good communicator, which will help in the D scheme.

Of potential returnees Frank/Grayson/Luke, none is a defensive standout. But experience can cover for a lot. I think Kennard was probably the least reliable on D.

Obviously big bodies like Knox and Bamba would improve potential as well.

So I'm cautiously optimistic on D for next year. I think we'll be much better than this year's team. Giles had no mobility. Bolden was frequently lost and in immediate foul trouble. And only Matt really had on ball lock down potential.

The bolded part is the most important for us, as fans, to keep in mind.

[Rich]

It's not a Sophie's Choice. Duke grad William Styron's novel involved which of her children Sophie would give up to the Nazis -- both options were hell.


Cultural illiteracy aside, it's also not a choice at all. Three players have individual decisions to make. Nobody is really asking anyone to choose between one player or another.

My bad, that was a poor literary reference on my part. I was just trying to say that it's a tough choice for me, as a fan, to say which I would prefer if, in fact, Kennard/Allen and Duval are mutually exclusive.

[CDu]

Someone on this thread said Grayson as sixth man is not gonna happen, but I think it's plausible. Especially considering that's where he found new life at the end of the recent season. And it seemed to work well for him in 2015.

Team was better with Frank starting the game. Grayson was better coming off the bench. Grayson's style lends itself perfectly to a jolting 6th man microwave type...come in and go hard against tired starters or weaker subs. Better emotionally for him, and higher emotional impact on the competition.

Would be surprised if he doesn't start out as starter. Wouldn't be surprised to see him slide into this role and still play 30+ minutes.

Allen came off the bench late this year only because he suffered ankle injuries that rendered him ineffective. As a result, they sat him one game and had him come off the bench for a few after that. The team caught its rhythm, and Coach K decided not to buck the trend once Allen got healthy again. Allen's resurgence late had nothing to do with coming off the bench; it was because he finally got healthy again.

Allen will presumably be healthy next year. As such, if he chooses to come back to Duke, he'll be starting. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

[kAzE]

Allen came off the bench late this year only because he suffered ankle injuries that rendered him ineffective. As a result, they sat him one game and had him come off the bench for a few after that. The team caught its rhythm, and Coach K decided not to buck the trend once Allen got healthy again. Allen's resurgence late had nothing to do with coming off the bench; it was because he finally got healthy again.

Allen will presumably be healthy next year. As such, if he chooses to come back to Duke, he'll be starting. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

It's crazy how much people are now underrating Grayson Allen because he had an injury plagued year. He's still the same guy who averaged 21.6 points a game, shot 47% overall and 41% from 3 just 2 years ago. If he comes back and Luke goes pro, Grayson will be the best player on the team next year. It doesn't matter which recruits we land, they won't be better than Grayson Allen next year if he's healthy. There's no Jayson Tatum in this class.

[CDu]

It's crazy how much people are now underrating Grayson Allen because he had an injury plagued year. He's still the same guy who averaged 21.6 points a game, shot 47% overall and 41% from 3 just 2 years ago. If he comes back and Luke goes pro, Grayson will be the best player on the team next year. It doesn't matter which recruits we land, they won't be better than Grayson Allen next year if he's healthy. There's no Jayson Tatum in this class.

I agree. A healthy Grayson Allen is a stud at the college level. We will have better pro prospects than Allen on next year's team. But I think there is virtually no chance that we will have a better college player next year than a healthy Grayson Allen. Unless, of course Kennard also returns. And even then, it could be pretty darn close.

I REALLY hope at least one of them is in a Duke uniform next year.

[DaleDuke7]

Someone on this thread said Grayson as sixth man is not gonna happen, but I think it's plausible. Especially considering that's where he found new life at the end of the recent season. And it seemed to work well for him in 2015.

Team was better with Frank starting the game. Grayson was better coming off the bench. Grayson's style lends itself perfectly to a jolting 6th man microwave type...come in and go hard against tired starters or weaker subs. Better emotionally for him, and higher emotional impact on the competition.

Would be surprised if he doesn't start out as starter. Wouldn't be surprised to see him slide into this role and still play 30+ minutes.



It's crazy how much people are now underrating Grayson Allen because he had an injury plagued year. He's still the same guy who averaged 21.6 points a game, shot 47% overall and 41% from 3 just 2 years ago. If he comes back and Luke goes pro, Grayson will be the best player on the team next year. It doesn't matter which recruits we land, they won't be better than Grayson Allen next year if he's healthy. There's no Jayson Tatum in this class.

Not to mention that I don't think Grayson would return just to come off of the bench during his senior season, even if he is playing 30 mpg. I don't see how it would help his draft stock for 2018, which would probably be a big reason for returning anyway. A healthy Grayson Allen looking to improve his draft stock, with another off-season of improvement, and certainly a senior captain would without a doubt be a starter on next year's team, regardless of who else stays, commits, or leaves. It's the smartest decision for him, and the team.

[dukelifer]

I agree. A healthy Grayson Allen is a stud at the college level. We will have better pro prospects than Allen on next year's team. But I think there is virtually no chance that we will have a better college player next year than a healthy Grayson Allen. Unless, of course Kennard also returns. And even then, it could be pretty darn close.

I REALLY hope at least one of them is in a Duke uniform next year.

At this point, Grayson looks to gain the most by coming back and Kennard looks to lose the most by staying. Grayson can build from a promising end of the season and dominate next year (given his experience) and maybe sneak back into the first round. Kennard is a hot product on most draft boards. If he gets a little stronger and fitter, he can have a long career in the NBA. I would be happy if both come back as that is a dynamic duo at the college level - but Kennard could steal some of Allen's thunder.

[whereinthehellami]

I'm going to get blasted for this but it is just one's fans opinion. While I agree that Allen is a bball stud, the mental/emotional aspect of his game is tiring. I think it has been overblown but it will never go away. And with the way he plays/needs to play, I will always be holding my breath. I'm ready to move on. I wish him the best and am thankful for all he has given to Duke.

For all the people who want him back because he is a bball stud, I think they are overlooking the effects he has on the team. Especially a young team.

Anyways, just one fans opinion.

[curtis325]

I'm going to get blasted for this but it is just one's fans opinion. While I agree that Allen is a bball stud, the mental/emotional aspect of his game is tiring. I think it has been overblown but it will never go away. And with the way he plays/needs to play, I will always be holding my breath. I'm ready to move on. I wish him the best and am thankful for all he has given to Duke.

For all the people who want him back because he is a bball stud, I think they are overlooking the effects he has on the team. Especially a young team.

Anyways, just one fans opinion.

I'm not blasting you--everyone is entitled to an opinion. I kind of liked the effect Allen had on his team in a certain game against Wisconsin. He seems to be loved by his teammates and coaches, so I would love to see him in a Duke uni next year.

[CDu]

I'm going to get blasted for this but it is just one's fans opinion. While I agree that Allen is a bball stud, the mental/emotional aspect of his game is tiring. I think it has been overblown but it will never go away. And with the way he plays/needs to play, I will always be holding my breath. I'm ready to move on. I wish him the best and am thankful for all he has given to Duke.

For all the people who want him back because he is a bball stud, I think they are overlooking the effects he has on the team. Especially a young team.

Anyways, just one fans opinion.

I won't blast you, though I will disagree. Not with the idea itself, just with how I think it will play out.

I think that Allen's issues this year were certainly a distraction for the team. And if he were to have another incident, it would be a huge distraction (or he would just get kicked off the team). My feeling is that he knows fully well that he doesn't have wiggle room for another mistake. So if he's returning, he's going to make darn sure it is a redemption and not a repeat.

And I think this season is evidence of that. He had no incidents after his return. There were some media attempts in the first few games back, but even that waned. And I think the media has moved on, because Allen hasn't given them ammunition. Furthermore, very few of the key players on next year's team will have dealt with it at all.

So as long as Allen can keep it clean, he won't be a distraction. And I think Allen will keep it clean.

[DukeTrinity11]

It doesn't matter which recruits we land, they won't be better than Grayson Allen next year if he's healthy. There's no Jayson Tatum in this class.


But I think there is virtually no chance that we will have a better college player next year than a healthy Grayson Allen.
I think that's a bit hyperbolic; Trevon Duval, Frank Jackson and Mo Bamba could all make a case of being the best Duke player even if Allen returns fully healthy and is even better than he was as a sophomore.

Certain draft prognosticators have put Duval in the same class as Derrick Rose, John Wall and Kyrie Irving as freshman level impact players in college. Those guys were all All-Americans or All-American caliber and even the freshman versions of Rose, Wall and Kyrie are likely better to be better than the senior version of Allen, no disrespect to him here. :D

Mo Bamba's wingspan is insane and he good have a similar defensive impact in his freshman year in college that David Robinson and Anthony Davis had.

Frank Jackson is a higher ranked guard recruit than Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard were. The latter 2 became All-Americans in their sophomore year in college and were among the best players in college, so why wouldn't Frank make a similar leap?

[NM Duke Fan]

I think that's a bit hyperbolic; Trevon Duval, Frank Jackson and Mo Bamba could all make a case of being the best Duke player even if Allen returns fully healthy and is even better than he was as a sophomore.

Certain draft prognosticators have put Duval in the same class as Derrick Rose, John Wall and Kyrie Irving as freshman level impact players in college. Those guys were all All-Americans or All-American caliber and even the freshman versions of Rose, Wall and Kyrie are likely better to be better than the senior version of Allen, no disrespect to him here. :D

Mo Bamba's wingspan is insane and he good have a similar defensive impact in his freshman year in college that David Robinson and Anthony Davis had.

Frank Jackson is a higher ranked guard recruit than Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard were. The latter 2 became All-Americans in their sophomore year in college and were among the best players in college, so why wouldn't Frank make a similar leap?

I actually have had the same thoughts about both Duval and Jackson possibly being the best players on the team next year, if Duval comes. And by year's end Carter perhaps as well, not impossible with his NBA talent level and current skills development.

[kAzE]

I think that's a bit hyperbolic;

Mo Bamba's wingspan is insane and he good have a similar defensive impact in his freshman year in college that David Robinson and Anthony Davis had.

Who's being hyperbolic? Anthony Davis had point guard skills as a 6'11" big man. David Robinson is a hall of famer. Slow your roll.

Subscribing to the "shiny new freshmen" rhetoric is great, but then when they get on the court, you realize: "Oh, that's right, they are freshmen, and all those youtube videos were just highlights."

On top of that, the 2018 crop doesn't seem initially like a great class overall in terms of talent. Not saying don't be optimistic, just temper your expectations. Marques Bolden has the longest wingspan of any Duke player, ever, and we all know how his freshman year turned out.

[ElSid]

It's crazy how much people are now underrating Grayson Allen because he had an injury plagued year. He's still the same guy who averaged 21.6 points a game, shot 47% overall and 41% from 3 just 2 years ago. If he comes back and Luke goes pro, Grayson will be the best player on the team next year. It doesn't matter which recruits we land, they won't be better than Grayson Allen next year if he's healthy. There's no Jayson Tatum in this class.

I don't see suggesting someone come off the bench as underrating them. It's just about what's comfortable. He's obviously good enough to start. Jamal Crawford is good enough to start for a lot of teams but the way he plays is optimized by a certain pattern. That's all I was suggesting. Also the way K talks about X number of guys who are all starters implies he agrees to some extent.

Also impossible to say it was "only" his health that influenced his improved play late in the season. I agree that was the main factor, but it's possible the lower pressure of coming off the bench helped him, seeing the game differently. Just about comfort and fit.

Not sure I agree Grayson will be the best player. I'd assume he would be, with health and another year of experience, but this year he was a real head scratcher (maybe not more than Kennard, literally). I think he forced it too much many times throughout the season. Maybe with lowered expectations he'll do better, ironically. The POY hype might have hurt him.

[DaleDuke7]

Also impossible to say it was "only" his health that influenced his improved play late in the season. I agree that was the main factor, but it's possible the lower pressure of coming off the bench helped him, seeing the game differently. Just about comfort and fit.

IIRC, around (and during) the first game vs unc, Grayson was starting and improving play. During that time, K mentioned that his improved play was due to his improved health. Although he re-injured himself shortly after. So I don't think coming off the bench was much of a significant factor, if any, in his improved play late in the year as you would suggest.

[budwom]

Who's being hyperbolic? Anthony Davis had point guard skills as a 6'11" big man. David Robinson is a hall of famer. Slow your roll.

Subscribing to the "shiny new freshmen" rhetoric is great, but then when they get on the court, you realize: "Oh, that's right, they are freshmen, and all those youtube videos were just highlights."

On top of that, the 2018 crop doesn't seem initially like a great class overall in terms of talent. Not saying don't be optimistic, just temper your expectations. Marques Bolden has the longest wingspan of any Duke player, ever, and we all know how his freshman year turned out.

I think maybe you've misread what DukeTrinity wrote. I took it to compare people to Robinson his freshman year...do you know David Robinson's stats his freshman year? They weren't great....7 pts, 4 rebounds, 13 minutes/game.

[CDu]

I think maybe you've misread what DukeTrinity wrote. I took it to compare people to Robinson his freshman year...do you know David Robinson's stats his freshman year? They weren't great...7 pts, 4 rebounds, 13 minutes/game.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I don't think DukeTrinity was intending to compare to Robinson's freshman year. He or she was suggesting that Bamba may be a transcendent defensive talent from day 1. So I would assume he or she was meaning the transcendent version of Robinson. That Robinson was mediocre as a freshman kind of supports kAzE's point.

[kAzE]

I think maybe you've misread what DukeTrinity wrote. I took it to compare people to Robinson his freshman year...do you know David Robinson's stats his freshman year? They weren't great...7 pts, 4 rebounds, 13 minutes/game.

Actually, I think those are pretty good stats for 13.3 minutes a game . . . that comes out to 22.9 points and 12.3 rebounds (and 3.9 blocks!) per 40 minutes. He might have averaged close to a double double if he played 30 minutes a game.

His sophomore year stats pretty much confirm that: 33.6 minutes, 23.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 4.0 blocks. Robinson was a stud, not his fault his coach didn't let him play more as a freshman.

[SkyBrickey]

Gary Trent Jr. is a very promising defender. K is quoted saying so in the excellent article about the Trent family. He can go some way to filling the big shoes of Matt Jones on D. Similar body type, too.

Bolden is 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan and mobile, so he has all the physical tools to be a dominant rim protector and PNR defender. If he learns not to get hurt and not foul every play, he should shine on D.

I think he should mold himself into a DeAndre Jordan type (very similar body) to make it in the league. Rebound, protect the rim, and pick and roll. Doesn't seem like the guy to step out and shoot from much beyond the free throw line. Okafor's struggle to fit in could motivate Bolden to try to fill this niche.

I'm not sure about Wendell Carter's D. I've heard him lauded more for rebounding than for defense, but they're both effort-based, so I expect he'd be a solid piece by year end. He's also intelligent and appears to be a good communicator, which will help in the D scheme.

Of potential returnees Frank/Grayson/Luke, none is a defensive standout. But experience can cover for a lot. I think Kennard was probably the least reliable on D.

Obviously big bodies like Knox and Bamba would improve potential as well.

So I'm cautiously optimistic on D for next year. I think we'll be much better than this year's team. Giles had no mobility. Bolden was frequently lost and in immediate foul trouble. And only Matt really had on ball lock down potential.

Carter will be a very, very good defender by mid-season. 6'10", 7'5" wingspan and more mobile than Bolden. Carter loves blocking shots. He will need to learn help side rotations and to keep his feet to avoid fouls, but he's a cerebral kid and I expect he'll come up the learning curve faster than most freshmen bigs.

But you're right that I think his impact will be most felt on the boards. At 250 lbs, he's got a low center of gravity and excels at getting and holding inside position on the shot.

[CDu]

Actually, I think those are pretty good stats for 13.3 minutes a game . . . that comes out to 22.9 points and 12.3 rebounds (and 3.9 blocks!) per 40 minutes. He might have averaged close to a double double if he played 30 minutes a game.

That he only averaged 13 mpg as a freshman at Navy probably says all we need to say about his readiness as a freshman.

[kAzE]

That he only averaged 13 mpg as a freshman at Navy probably says all we need to say about his readiness as a freshman.

I'm not so sure about that . . . you don't just go from not ready to conference player of the year the very next year (which he was).

I don't know enough about his team, but I'm guessing he had an Amile Jefferson type of upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart as a freshman. Otherwise, I don't know how you keep that guy on the bench for 27 minutes a game.

[CDu]

I'm not so sure about that . . . you don't just go from not ready to conference player of the year the very next year (which he was).

I don't know enough about his team, but I'm guessing he had an Amile Jefferson type of upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart as a freshman. Otherwise, I don't know how you keep that guy on the bench for 27 minutes a game.

I think it's quite plausible, actually. Guys make freshman-to-sophomore leaps all the time. And remember: it's Navy. They didn't exactly play in a powerhouse conference.

[Edouble]

I'm sure he will but he's way behind Luke and GA on Duke need chart imo. Duke will score plenty with GA and/or Luke. Duvall does not look to be an elite defender. I would love to have all three but we need veterans more than freshmen.

Not sure where this is coming from.

I mentioned nothing about Luke or Grayson, nor was I discussing overall scoring or anyone's defense.

I responded to your post that stated that Duval would only help "a little" (I strongly disagree, he would be highly impactful) and that Duval is not a "pure point guard" (I strongly disagree, he is).

[kAzE]

I think it's quite plausible, actually. Guys make freshman-to-sophomore leaps all the time. And remember: it's Navy. They didn't exactly play in a powerhouse conference.

You're right on all counts, of course. But just from a statistical standpoint, he did pretty well for playing just 13 minutes a game. In no way is 7 points and 4 rebounds (and 1.5 blocks) chopped liver when you're only playing 13 minutes. It seemed logical that he would make that leap when you extrapolate his production across more minutes. It's similar to Grayson Allen. He didn't play much his first year, but when he did, he was a killer. If Grayson had played 30 minutes a game as a freshman, I don't think anyone would have been surprised at how good he was his sophomore year.

[Edouble]

Carter will be a very, very good defender by mid-season. 6'10", 7'5" wingspan and more mobile than Bolden. Carter loves blocking shots. He will need to learn help side rotations and to keep his feet to avoid fouls, but he's a cerebral kid and I expect he'll come up the learning curve faster than most freshmen bigs.

But you're right that I think his impact will be most felt on the boards. At 250 lbs, he's got a low center of gravity and excels at getting and holding inside position on the shot.

I don't think Carter is more mobile than Bolden. I've seen them both play live and that is just my impression.

[DukeTrinity11]

This could be a case study in how perception of the guy we haven't seen is somehow better than the guys we've had. Could Duval be great? Maybe. You don't know that. Nobody knows that. Are Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen great? Heck yes.

There's almost zero chance Duval is better as a freshman than either of those guys next year. Maybe he's as good as De'Aaron Fox. Or maybe he's Derryck Thornton. Anyone who claims they know how good Duval will be next year is just full of it. I like my known quantity All-American guards more.
But kAzE, do you think you are overestimating the possibility that Duval is overrated due to perhaps being jaded at the poor performance of Giles, Bolden, etc. as freshmen?

Duval's ceiling is higher than Allen or Kennard's so its possible he's a step behind them this year, on the same level or even better than Allen and Kennard despite the latter 2 being All-Americans.

Here are examples of freshman guards in the last 30 years whose lone seasons I would easily take over both Allen and Kennard's All-American sophomore seasons:

Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (Chris Jackson)
Bobby Hurley
Kenny Anderson
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Allen Iverson
Omar Cook
T.J. Ford
Derrick Rose
Stephen Curry
Tyreke Evans
Mike Conley Jr.
John Wall
Marcus Smart
D'Angelo Russell
Lonzo Ball

[kAzE]

But kAzE, do you think you are overestimating the possibility that Duval is overrated due to perhaps being jaded at the poor performance of Giles, Bolden, etc. as freshmen?

Duval's ceiling is higher than Allen or Kennard's so its possible he's a step behind them this year, on the same level or even better than Allen and Kennard despite the latter 2 being All-Americans.

Here are examples of freshman guards in the last 30 years whose lone seasons I would easily take over both Allen and Kennard's All-American sophomore seasons:

Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (Chris Jackson)
Bobby Hurley
Kenny Anderson
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Allen Iverson
Omar Cook
T.J. Ford
Derrick Rose
Stephen Curry
Tyreke Evans
Mike Conley Jr.
John Wall
Marcus Smart
D'Angelo Russell
Lonzo Ball

I agree with some of those players, but not most of them. Definitely not Bobby Hurley, Marcus Smart, T.J. Ford, Allen Iverson, or Omar Cook. Those players flat out did NOT have even close to as good a season in their freshman year as Luke Kennard just had as a sophomore. Most of the others are debatable. I think you're underestimating Luke's season. Offensively, it was as good as any one player's season in Duke history outside of Christian Laettner and maybe JJ Redick's senior years.

I'm not overrating Duval at all. I've continually said he's the most important remaining recruit that we have. I just don't think he's MORE important than getting one of our established upperclassmen all-americans back.

[CDu]

But kAzE, do you think you are overestimating the possibility that Duval is overrated due to perhaps being jaded at the poor performance of Giles, Bolden, etc. as freshmen?

Duval's ceiling is higher than Allen or Kennard's so its possible he's a step behind them this year, on the same level or even better than Allen and Kennard despite the latter 2 being All-Americans.

Here are examples of freshman guards in the last 30 years whose lone seasons I would easily take over both Allen and Kennard's All-American sophomore seasons:

Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (Chris Jackson)
Bobby Hurley
Kenny Anderson
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Allen Iverson
Omar Cook
T.J. Ford
Derrick Rose
Stephen Curry
Tyreke Evans
Mike Conley Jr.
John Wall
Marcus Smart
D'Angelo Russell
Lonzo Ball


I agree with some of those players, but not most of them. Definitely not Bobby Hurley, Marcus Smart, T.J. Ford, Allen Iverson, or Omar Cook. Those players flat out did NOT have even close to as good a season in their freshman year as Luke Kennard just had as a sophomore. Most of the others are debatable. I think you're underestimating Luke's season. Offensively, it was as good as any one player's season in Duke history outside of Christian Laettner and maybe JJ Redick's senior years.

I'm not overrating Duval at all. I've continually said he's the most important remaining recruit that we have. I just don't think he's MORE important than getting one of our established upperclassmen all-americans back.

And even ignoring that maybe half the guys on that list weren't actually better as freshmen than Allen's and Kennard's sophomore years, that you have a list of 16 players OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS! That alone should tell you how unlikely it is that Duval will be better next year than Allen or Kennard have already bern.

[Kedsy]

I'm not so sure about that . . . you don't just go from not ready to conference player of the year the very next year (which he was).

I don't know enough about his team, but I'm guessing he had an Amile Jefferson type of upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart as a freshman. Otherwise, I don't know how you keep that guy on the bench for 27 minutes a game.

Robinson was 6'7" and skinny his freshman year, and was playing behind two much bigger players at Navy. He apparently grew 5 inches the summer before his sophomore year.

Does that explain it for you?

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I don't think Carter is more mobile than Bolden. I've seen them both play live and that is just my impression.

I am quite curious about to this belief, as I have seen Carter, in person, three or four times, and in my mind, there is no comparison between Carter's mobility and any of Duke's returning big men.

In terms of lateral movement alone, I am not sure of the last Duke post player that moved as deftly as Carter is capable.

I do not believe Carter is comparable to Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond, but that kiddo is not going to passed up by many people his size next season.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

And even ignoring that maybe half the guys on that list weren't actually better as freshmen than Allen's and Kennard's sophomore years, that you have a list of 16 players OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS! That alone should tell you how unlikely it is that Duval will be better next year than Allen or Kennard have already bern.

Duval will not score as much as (but not too far behind) Kennard or Allen, as he is a pass first player, but in terms of overall season, if Duval comes to Duke and he is not far and away better overall than either of the sophomore versions of Kennard or Allen, I will happily leave DBR FOREVER.

Today, I would take Allen's or Kennard's ability from the perimeter over Duval, but everything else, that little guy is miles better than what either of Duke's potential '17-'18 leaders did during their second seasons.

[kAzE]

Robinson was 6'7" and skinny his freshman year, and was playing behind two much bigger players at Navy. He apparently grew 5 inches the summer before his sophomore year.

Does that explain it for you?

5 inches in one summer? That doesn't even sound real . . .

I had to Google this:

http://www.naturalheightgrowth.com/2012/09/20/the-largest-growth-spurts-in-history/

He was 5'9" as a junior in high school. That is insanity. Still, he had to be at least 6'9" or 6'10" by the end of his freshman year . . . I find it hard to believe that he grew 10 inches from his junior year of high school to his freshman year in college, and then stayed 6'7" for the entire season until April and then went from 6'7" to 7'1" in 6 months.

[azzefkram]

I agree with some of those players, but not most of them. Definitely not Bobby Hurley, Marcus Smart, T.J. Ford, Allen Iverson, or Omar Cook. Those players flat out did NOT have even close to as good a season in their freshman year as Luke Kennard just had as a sophomore. Most of the others are debatable. I think you're underestimating Luke's season. Offensively, it was as good as any one player's season in Duke history outside of Christian Laettner and maybe JJ Redick's senior years.

I'm not overrating Duval at all. I've continually said he's the most important remaining recruit that we have. I just don't think he's MORE important than getting one of our established upperclassmen all-americans back.

Luke had a great year but it was not as otherworldly as you make it out to be.



Player
%Min
ORtg
eFG%
TS%
ARate
TORate
FT%
2P%
3P%


A
88.9
127.3
56.9
60.9
13.2
11.0
.891
.536
.395


B
88.8
127.3
57.9
62.9
13.6
11.2
.856
.525
.438



Player A is Quinn Cook. Player B is Luke Kennard. Those are two fairly similar offensive profiles. Player A was an asset on defense. He was not Matt Jones level but he wasn't the black hole that Kennard was this past year. Should Luke decide to return, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he has a worse season as a junior than he did as a sophomore. Grayson was worse as a junior. Injuries were a factor but not the sole reason. I am on the fence as to whether or not I'd like Luke to return. Selfishly I want him back. Even with the glaring defensive deficiencies he was an overall asset (++ offensive player, good rebounder for his position, a smart player). If he's a first round pick, I think he should go. His deficiencies are unlikely to be improved by another year of college.

I don't think anyone would admit to not wanting Grayson back either. Well I guess one poster would be he is silly and he's ignorant, but he's got guts and guts is enough.

[CDu]

I am quite curious about to this belief, as I have seen Carter, in person, three or four times, and in my mind, there is no comparison between Carter's mobility and any of Duke's returning big men.

In terms of lateral movement alone, I am not sure of the last Duke post player that moved as deftly as Carter is capable.

I do not believe Carter is comparable to Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond, but that kiddo is not going to passed up by many people his size next season.

First, I don't think it is reasonable to assess - based on 3 or 4 times seeing someone play against high schoolers - how quick/agile a player is. I'm not saying you're wrong. Just that I think you are making a judgement without the necessary information.

Also, Andre Drummond wasn't overly mobile or great laterally. He was/is just a behemoth. He and Anthony Davis should not really be in the same discussion as they are wildly different players.


Duval will not score as much as (but not too far behind) Kennard or Allen, as he is a pass first player, but in terms of overall season, if Duval comes to Duke and he is not far and away better overall than either of the sophomore versions of Kennard or Allen, I will happily leave DBR FOREVER.

Today, I would take Allen's or Kennard's ability from the perimeter over Duval, but everything else, that little guy is miles better than what either of Duke's potential '17-'18 leaders did during their second seasons.

And here I DEFINITELY think you've not done your homework. Duval is not a pass-first PG. He's very much a lead guard. I would expect him to be much more proficient as a scorer than as a distributor as a freshman.

Also, why would you offer to "leave DBR FOREVER" if you are wrong? Nobody is asking you to do that. That's not the way this board works. People make mistakes. None of us are infallible geniuses when it comes to basketball. Otherwise, we wouldn't be on message boards.

[kAzE]

Luke had a great year but it was not as otherworldly as you make it out to be.



Player
%Min
ORtg
eFG%
TS%
ARate
TORate
FT%
2P%
3P%


A
88.9
127.3
56.9
60.9
13.2
11.0
.891
.536
.395


B
88.8
127.3
57.9
62.9
13.6
11.2
.856
.525
.438




Oh, trust me, I'm the #1 fan of Quinn Cook's senior year. I'm continually shocked that people don't give him the credit he deserves for that team's success. In fact, he was my biggest argument for needing an upperclassman leader on next year's team.

But at the same time, I don't necessarily think he shouldered as big of a load offensively as Luke did this past year. Quinn had a Jahlil Okafor, who was an automatic 2 points in the paint if you didn't double team him, and the best freshman point guard not named Kyrie Irving Duke's ever had, finding him for wide open shots.

Those were 2 major elements that we didn't have on offense this year, so the fact that Luke had the year he had, while playing with 2 other high usage perimeter scorers makes his year more impressive in my eyes from purely an offensive standpoint.

Especially through the early part of the season and in the first half conference play, Luke pretty much had to carry the team on his back. He was the #1 option, and the #1 target for opposing defenses. I think that's why he got the consensus All-American nod, and Quinn did not (although he did pick up 2nd team recognition from a couple of publications).

[Indoor66]

Also, why would you offer to "leave DBR FOREVER" if you are wrong? Nobody is asking you to do that. That's not the way this board works. People make mistakes. None of us are infallible geniuses when it comes to basketball. Otherwise, we wouldn't be on message boards.

But there are some who are never wrong - just ask them.😎

[mgtr]

But there are some who are never wrong - just ask them.��

I believe the famous line is "often in error, never in doubt." That should be the motto of this board (myself included!)

[azzefkram]

Oh, trust me, I'm the #1 fan of Quinn Cook's senior year. I'm continually shocked that people don't give him the credit he deserves for that team's success. In fact, he was my biggest argument for needing an upperclassman leader on next year's team.

But at the same time, I don't necessarily think he shouldered as big of a load offensively as Luke did this past year. Quinn had a Jahlil Okafor, who was an automatic 2 points in the paint if you didn't double team him, and the best freshman point guard not named Kyrie Irving Duke's ever had, finding him for wide open shots.

Those were 2 major elements that we didn't have on offense this year, so the fact that Luke had the year he had, while playing with 2 other high usage perimeter scorers makes his year more impressive in my eyes from purely an offensive standpoint.

Especially through the early part of the season and in the first half conference play, Luke pretty much had to carry the team on his back. He was the #1 option, and the #1 target for opposing defenses. I think that's why he got the consensus All-American nod, and Quinn did not (although he did pick up 2nd team recognition from a couple of publications).

Luke played with 5 double digit scorers and he was not the first option for the first part of the season. Grayson may not have been Tyus but he still managed a ARate of 21.5. Quinn played with 4. He also had 2 high usage players (3 if you want to count Sheed). I have a hard time caring about beauty pageant stuff (see Jackson, Justin 2017), especially when looking at different years.

[kAzE]

Luke played with 5 double digit scorers and he was not the first option for the first part of the season. Grayson may not have been Tyus but he still managed a ARate of 21.5. Quinn played with 4. He also had 2 high usage players (3 if you want to count Sheed). I have a hard time caring about beauty pageant stuff (see Jackson, Justin 2017), especially when looking at different years.

Ok, let's say all other things are equal. Luke still averaged 4.2 more points, 1.7 more rebounds, shot 4% better from the field, and 4% better from 3. Your table doesn't tell the whole story. Luke had a higher usage rate and was still more efficient. He had a better year offensively. I don't think many people would argue the opposite.

[ElSid]

IIRC, around (and during) the first game vs unc, Grayson was starting and improving play. During that time, K mentioned that his improved play was due to his improved health. Although he re-injured himself shortly after. So I don't think coming off the bench was much of a significant factor, if any, in his improved play late in the year as you would suggest.

I think you're almost certainly right, and I remember the same.

I sensed a confidence problem that seemed to get better after he started coming off the bench. Simply arguing that it's possible that gave him some room to grow back into a bigger role :)

I'm also enamored of the idea. We're so talent-rich we can bring in Grayson before the first media time out and kick start a run. Could see him filling this sorta role in the league, once he gets there, after next season hopefully!

[Spanarkel]

Troublemaker
Member

"Unfortunately, I can't find his stats from Pace Academy, where I hear he does put up a decent amount of threes. Having those stats from Pace would eliminate any mystery about this. I do heavily suspect his percentage at Pace will be ugly. Because when he's surrounded by a lot of talent, he longer shoots threes."


Right you are, Troublemaker.
Wendell shot threes at a 16/78 (22%) clip his senior year at Pace. His 2-point FG% was 155/230 (67%) for last season. His assistant coach, Pete Pope, wrote: "Threes are not his strength, but they are part of the arsenal he is developing. Major progress was made this year."

Source: Pete Pope, Pace Assistant Men's Basketball Coach(4/5/17)

[CDu]

I think you're almost certainly right, and I remember the same.

I sensed a confidence problem that seemed to get better after he started coming off the bench. Simply arguing that it's possible that gave him some room to grow back into a bigger role :)

I'm also enamored of the idea. We're so talent-rich we can bring in Grayson before the first media time out and kick start a run. Could see him filling this sorta role in the league, once he gets there, after next season hopefully!

Allen was a second-Team All-American as a starter as a sophomore, so I don't think it is reasonable to say he plays better coming off the bench. I think that by far the most reasonable reason for his struggles this year was injuries. He spent very little of this season healthy. And for a guy whose game is so reliant on athleticism, a lack of health is a big obstacle.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The longer we wait, I am convinced that Allen and Kennard are making separate decisions. For Kennard, the long decision making process seems to be about gathering feedback on his draft stock and then talking it over with his family and coach. Every day that goes by, the more likely it is that I think he declares for the draft, with or without an agent. For Allen, I think it's the opposite. The longer he waits to decide, the more likely he will be to return.

Speaking of Duke players that were Sophomore All-Americans, how good is Frank Jackson going to be next season? He shot 39.2% from 3 last season and 54.3% from 2. The kid has immense talent. He could be the best player in the ACC next season.

[budwom]

^ I'd throw mental injuries in there as well.

[DaleDuke7]

I think you're almost certainly right, and I remember the same.

I sensed a confidence problem that seemed to get better after he started coming off the bench. Simply arguing that it's possible that gave him some room to grow back into a bigger role :)

I'm also enamored of the idea. We're so talent-rich we can bring in Grayson before the first media time out and kick start a run. Could see him filling this sorta role in the league, once he gets there, after next season hopefully!

You may have a point about his confidence, but I think where we differ is that you think coming off the bench helped his confidence, while I think that him regaining his health was his confidence boost. Regaining his athleticism, which is a major part of his game, had to, in my opinion, be the key reason for regaining his confidence, if there was a lack thereof in the first place.

I definitely understand why you like the idea of it, and it's actually not a bad idea to me. I'm just not so sure Grayson would be as enamored with it. And I don't think K would want his senior captain and best player coming off the bench. He's always started his best player, and will be especially inclined to do so for his senior leadership on the court. Again, not a bad idea, I just don't think it's the best one.

[Troublemaker]

Wendell shot threes at a 16/78 (22%) clip his senior year at Pace. His 2-point FG% was 155/230 (67%) for last season. His assistant coach, Pete Pope, wrote: "Threes are not his strength, but they are part of the arsenal he is developing. Major progress was made this year."

Source: Pete Pope, Pace Assistant Men's Basketball Coach(4/5/17)

Thanks for doing the research, Spanarkel! Sporks.

[CDu]

Troublemaker
Member

"Unfortunately, I can't find his stats from Pace Academy, where I hear he does put up a decent amount of threes. Having those stats from Pace would eliminate any mystery about this. I do heavily suspect his percentage at Pace will be ugly. Because when he's surrounded by a lot of talent, he longer shoots threes."


Right you are, Troublemaker.
Wendell shot threes at a 16/78 (22%) clip his senior year at Pace. His 2-point FG% was 155/230 (67%) for last season. His assistant coach, Pete Pope, wrote: "Threes are not his strength, but they are part of the arsenal he is developing. Major progress was made this year."

Source: Pete Pope, Pace Assistant Men's Basketball Coach(4/5/17)

Which would strongly suggest to me that he is not going to be shooting 3s at Duke. Coach K doesn't have a habit of having guys who are sub-30% 3pt shooters shooting 3s.

[Troublemaker]

Which would strongly suggest to me that he is not going to be shooting 3s at Duke. Coach K doesn't have a habit of having guys who are sub-30% 3pt shooters shooting 3s.

Right, Wendell's situation at Duke will be more like his situations with Team USA or his AAU team. Surrounded by much more talent than at Pace, he'll have much less of a green light and might not shoot ANY threes next season.

Which brings us back to Kevin Knox being an important recruit. Although it's not JUST about being able to spread the floor. From everything I've read/seen, Knox is going to be a very good defender. Maybe not as good as Winslow but he should be better than Tatum, Ingram, and Parker. And for most opponents, it actually makes more sense to play a Knox or Winslow-type at the 4 defensively than to play Carter at the 4 defensively. (Although, as I've said, I expect Duke to play plenty of the "2 bigs" lineup even if Knox comes. But you want the flexibility to play both ways).

[CDu]

Right, Wendell's situation at Duke will be more like his situations with Team USA or his AAU team. Surrounded by much more talent than at Pace, he'll have much less of a green light and might not shoot ANY threes next season.

Which brings us back to Kevin Knox being an important recruit. Although it's not JUST about being able to spread the floor. From everything I've read/seen, Knox is going to be a very good defender. Maybe not as good as Winslow but he should be better than Tatum, Ingram, and Parker. And for most opponents, it actually makes more sense to play a Knox or Winslow-type at the 4 defensively than to play Carter at the 4 defensively. (Although, as I've said, I expect Duke to play plenty of the "2 bigs" lineup even if Knox comes. But you want the flexibility to play both ways).

I would add that there is a real chance that DeLaurier could fill the role that you've described for Knox. He's as athletic as anyone, and he certainly has the size for the position. So it is more a matter of figuring out the speed and tenor of the college game. I think he could potentially fill that role of defending quicker PFs next year if we don't get Knox. I don't think he'd provide as much value offensively as Knox might, but I don't think he should be completely written off either.

He'd need to make a substantial jump of course. Most notably in terms of his ability to not commit fouls. But I think he could be very much in play if we don't get Knox.

[pfrduke]

I would add that there is a real chance that DeLaurier could fill the role that you've described for Knox. He's as athletic as anyone, and he certainly has the size for the position. So it is more a matter of figuring out the speed and tenor of the college game. I think he could potentially fill that role of defending quicker PFs next year if we don't get Knox. I don't think he'd provide as much value offensively as Knox might, but I don't think he should be completely written off either.

He'd need to make a substantial jump of course. Most notably in terms of his ability to not commit fouls. But I think he could be very much in play if we don't get Knox.

Can DeLaurier shoot though? Obviously we didn't get to see much of him this year, but from what we did see, jump shot is not what I would put high on his list of strengths. Defensively he could certainly handle the 4 position - he has the versatility to do bigger and smaller college PFs, as you suggest. But swapping DeLaurier in for Carter doesn't bring the same kind of offensive versatility that we might otherwise want between a "big" and "small" lineup.

[scottdude8]

Just got an alert from my ESPN app that Jeff Goodman's sources say that Grayson's NBA decision is "up in the air" while Luke is "likely to declare". I'm not sure how much we trust Goodman's reporting (or reporting about this type of stuff in general... see Bolden, Marques), but that seems to go along with what the consensus on the board is.

I'll say again that I think we really need one of those two guys back (I won't be greedy and ask for both, although that would be incredible, haha). With a veteran presence alongside what looks to be another incredible recruiting class and two sophomores likely returning to contribute significantly, we're a potential No. 1 team entering next season. If Luke and Grayson both go and we have no significant contributors older than sophomores, we're a Kentucky-like team that could go either way.

Hoping for news soon, cause the wait is killing me!

[CDu]

Can DeLaurier shoot though? Obviously we didn't get to see much of him this year, but from what we did see, jump shot is not what I would put high on his list of strengths. Defensively he could certainly handle the 4 position - he has the versatility to do bigger and smaller college PFs, as you suggest. But swapping DeLaurier in for Carter doesn't bring the same kind of offensive versatility that we might otherwise want between a "big" and "small" lineup.

Can Knox shoot it? That has been the knock on him to this point: that he isn't a great shooter. He shot 35% from the high school 3pt line against inferior competition (competition affects shooting %).

But beyond that, I was referring to the defensive side of things with my post. I don't know that either Knox or DeLaurier or Carter will have the offensive skill set that Ingram, Parker, and Tatum have had. In fact, I'd suggest that they probably won't.

[lotusland]

Not sure where this is coming from.

I mentioned nothing about Luke or Grayson, nor was I discussing overall scoring or anyone's defense.

I responded to your post that stated that Duval would only help "a little" (I strongly disagree, he would be highly impactful) and that Duval is not a "pure point guard" (I strongly disagree, he is).

I don't think those posts are mine. I don't make predictions about specific incoming freshman. I have posted the freshmen in general don't play great defense. I have no opinion about Duvall being a pure PG since I haven't seen him play. Must have been someone else. No worries though.

[DukieInBrasil]

Even if Grayson returns, Duke will only have 2 players that have proven competence shooting the 3 next year. If we land Duval we'll have another guard, at least, but his 3pt shooting reputation is not great. Knox, should we land him, is also (per DBR accounts) not a strong 3pt shooter either.
So that leads me to think that there might be a role for Jack White next year. Perhaps i'm making too much of his 50% career 3FGs, since he only took 2, but if he can make some he'll help stretch defenses.

[CDu]

Even if Grayson returns, Duke will only have 2 players that have proven competence shooting the 3 next year. If we land Duval we'll have another guard, at least, but his 3pt shooting reputation is not great. Knox, should we land him, is also (per DBR accounts) not a strong 3pt shooter either.
So that leads me to think that there might be a role for Jack White next year. Perhaps i'm making too much of his 50% career 3FGs, since he only took 2, but if he can make some he'll help stretch defenses.

Trent is also considered a good shooter. But, yes, we are not going to have a ton of perimeter shooters. Fortunately, Carter is a very good post scorer.

[Spanarkel]

Even if Grayson returns, Duke will only have 2 players that have proven competence shooting the 3 next year. If we land Duval we'll have another guard, at least, but his 3pt shooting reputation is not great. Knox, should we land him, is also (per DBR accounts) not a strong 3pt shooter either.
So that leads me to think that there might be a role for Jack White next year. Perhaps i'm making too much of his 50% career 3FGs, since he only took 2, but if he can make some he'll help stretch defenses.

Here's to hoping that Jack can contribute. I saw a picture on his twitter from 4/5 when some of the NY Giants visited Duke, and played some hoops. Jack's left knee had two small tape X's on it. I hope he is not continuing to have fluid drained from his knee.

[billy]

Jack's left knee had two small tape X's on it.

That sounds like arthroscopy incisions covered with steri-strips, not drawing fluid out