Tough Week

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, we lost last Sunday, far earlier than any of us had hoped. We lose Tatum (expected), Jeter (sorta expected), and Obi (surprising to me,as I thought his knees were toast), and UNC advances to the final four.

I guess what I am saying is, it has been a rough ten days for Duke fans. I would really appreciate it if we got UNC scandal news of impending punishment, or really good recruiting news, or found out some of our studs were staying around for another season.

Someone drop some positivity for me?

[English]

So, we lost last Sunday, far earlier than any of us had hoped. We lose Tatum (expected), Jeter (sorta expected), and Obi (surprising to me,as I thought his knees were toast), and UNC advances to the final four.

I guess what I am saying is, it has been a rough ten days for Duke fans. I would really appreciate it if we got UNC scandal news of impending punishment, or really good recruiting news, or found out some of our studs were staying around for another season.

Someone drop some positivity for me?

So, losing Obi is surprising to you because you thought we lost him two years ago?

Not a lot of positivity to drop right now, if you're a Duke basketball fan, sadly. Especially since anyone trying to be positive about basketball recruiting gets mercilessly mocked for optimism that young basketball players can possibly replicate what older basketball players do on the court.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, losing Obi is surprising to you because you thought we lost him two years ago?

Not a lot of positivity to drop right now, if you're a Duke basketball fan, sadly. Especially since anyone trying to be positive about basketball recruiting gets mercilessly mocked for optimism that young basketball players can possibly replicate what older basketball players do on the court.

Yes, I thought Obi's playing days were behind him. Best of luck to the young man.

[Olympic Fan]

Not to be picky, but your definition of a week is a little off.

Last week WAS tough -- but the Obi news is the next week. And actually, if you count the week as starting the Sunday when Duke lost in Greenville, then UNC's advance to the NCAA two days ago is a new week too (eight days a week was not my favorite Beatles song).

Let's see what this week brings. I don't think the Obi news is all that bad -- he was not going to be a factor next year. Good luck to him wherever he goes.

I don't think we'll get any good recruiting news this week. The guys we're after -- Knox, Duval and Bamba -- will all wait until at least mid-April (at least Knox and Bamba will .... not as sure about Duval, but think it likely).

Very possible we'll get more bad news this week -- UNC in the NCAA semifinals, plus I think we'll hear about anther Duke player going pro (probably Giles, maybe one of Luke or Grayson).

And the week after that could get off to a terrible start as the national title game is played on Monday night.

The last week was a nightmare, this week doesn't look that great and the week after that could be bad too.

But the tide will turn. I promise. That's the best I can do to relieve your pain.

[cato]

So, losing Obi is surprising to you because you thought we lost him two years ago?

Not a lot of positivity to drop right now, if you're a Duke basketball fan, sadly. Especially since anyone trying to be positive about basketball recruiting gets mercilessly mocked for optimism that young basketball players can possibly replicate what older basketball players do on the court.

Sure there is! Duke has the best coaching staff in the land, lead by the best head coach in MBB history. Another great recruiting class is coming in next year, and Coaches K and Capel do not spend their summers on the golf course.

We live in the golden age of Duke hoops. Do not let some unlucky breaks (and sprains, etc.) get you down. The future is bright.

[English]

Not to be picky, but your definition of a week is a little off.

Last week WAS tough -- but the Obi news is the next week. And actually, if you count the week as starting the Sunday when Duke lost in Greenville, then UNC's advance to the NCAA two days ago is a new week too (eight days a week was not my favorite Beatles song).

Let's see what this week brings. I don't think the Obi news is all that bad -- he was not going to be a factor next year. Good luck to him wherever he goes.

I don't think we'll get any good recruiting news this week. The guys we're after -- Knox, Duval and Bamba -- will all wait until at least mid-April (at least Knox and Bamba will ... not as sure about Duval, but think it likely).

Very possible we'll get more bad news this week -- UNC in the NCAA semifinals, plus I think we'll hear about anther Duke player going pro (probably Giles, maybe one of Luke or Grayson).

And the week after that could get off to a terrible start as the national title game is played on Monday night.

The last week was a nightmare, this week doesn't look that great and the week after that could be bad too.

But the tide will turn. I promise. That's the best I can do to relieve your pain.

The most detail Trey Duval has given on his timeline is "sometime in April-May," so you're spot-on barring something shocking.

[oakvillebluedevil]

Sure there is! Duke has the best coaching staff in the land, lead by the best head coach in MBB history. Another great recruiting class is coming in next year, and Coaches K and Capel do not spend their summers on the golf course.

We live in the golden age of Duke hoops. Do not let some unlucky breaks (and sprains, etc.) get you down. The future is bright.

Agreed - if this is one of the tough weeks I'll take it. Looking forward to seeing what K and staff are able to assemble over the course of the next few weeks here. At the minimum next year, we'll be a young, athletic, and competitive team led by a fantastic (and hopefully healthy) coach with several months of great basketball to look forward to in '17-18.

As long as that's the case I think 'tough' is a real relative term.

(That said, past days could have definitely gone better)

[Troublemaker]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.

As far as official announcements go, though, there will probably be more bad news than good news at first. I would expect Giles' declaration to be the 4th domino to drop any day now.

[Ballboy1998]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.

As far as official announcements go, though, there will probably be more bad news than good news at first. I would expect Giles' declaration to be the 4th domino to drop any day now.

Interesting tidbit there...

[English]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.

As far as official announcements go, though, there will probably be more bad news than good news at first. I would expect Giles' declaration to be the 4th domino to drop any day now.

Do tell.

[kAzE]

So, losing Obi is surprising to you because you thought we lost him two years ago?

Not a lot of positivity to drop right now, if you're a Duke basketball fan, sadly. Especially since anyone trying to be positive about basketball recruiting gets mercilessly mocked for optimism that young basketball players can possibly replicate what older basketball players do on the court.

I don't believe I've mocked anyone for their optimism for incoming recruits, but just check out all 4 final four teams. What do you see? Juniors and seniors up and down each roster. And not just this year. Every year. Maybe once every 4 or 5 years, a UK or Duke team with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through, but that's the exception, not the rule.

[Jeffrey]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.


History repeats. IMO, until K retires, we should have no serious concerns. If people are freaking now, imagine when K retires!

[Jeffrey]

I don't believe I've mocked anyone for their optimism for incoming recruits, but just check out all 4 final four teams. What do you see? Juniors and seniors up and down each roster. And not just this year. Every year. Maybe once every 4 or 5 years, a UK or Duke team with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through, but that's the exception, not the rule.

UK's been in the Final Four in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and, IMO, "with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through".

[kAzE]

UK's been in the Final Four in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and, IMO, "with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through".

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters. I'm only saying this because people in the 2017 recruiting thread seem to think we can win a championship with a "Fab 5" type of team with 5 freshmen starters next year. It's never been done.

[Jeffrey]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters.

"Juniors and seniors up and down each roster."?

Cal is running the premier OAD school, since 2010, and he is getting to the Final Four.

[COYS]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters.

All the more reason to hope that Luke comes back. And Grayson. Perhaps we'll get some good news about that soon(ish) . . . pretty please?*

.
.
.
.
*Of course I want them to do what's best for themselves and their career . . . but don't fault me for hoping they both conclude that coming back to Duke is the best option

[kAzE]

"Juniors and seniors up and down each roster."?

Cal is running the premier OAD school and he is getting to the Final Four.

Okay, so that's like 5-6 teams in the last 7 years, out of 28 teams. Maybe my "every 4-5 years" comment was off, but the vast majority of final four teams are still heavily laden with older players.

[Jeffrey]

Maybe my "every 4-5 years" comment was off...

Maybe? UK's been in the Final Four in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and, IMO, "with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through".

[Dukehky]

Harry to the league. Last person out of Durham, please remember to turn off the lights.

[kAzE]

Maybe? UK's been in the Final Four in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 and, IMO, "with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through".

I feel like you did no research in to this, and just assumed all of UK's teams are underclassmen. With the exception of 2014 (when they were an 8 seed), each of those UK final four teams had at least 3 upperclassmen in their top 7 rotation. That's not "a bunch of freshmen and sophomores."

[CameronBlue]

Someone drop some positivity for me?


You should get some satisfaction from looking back upon a year that saw Duke beat the cheats in FB, WBB (sweep) and MBB (2-1). Duke pushed its lead back out to 2 official conference championships in MBB increasing the probability that when K and Roy have both retired Duke will be the leader in ACC Championships for Men's Basketball. In FB Duke has won 3 of the last 5 and recruiting continues to improve year over year. If UNC wins the NCAAs it will sting the Blue Devil faithful but the sting will subside over a much shorter time than it will take UNC to shake its reputation as the Cheatingest athletic program in NCAA history, east or west of the Pecos. The vast majority of UNC fans will have transitioned from this life before UNC is once again a respected athletic entity in college sports.

[FadedTackyShirt]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters. I'm only saying this because people in the 2017 recruiting thread seem to think we can win a championship with a "Fab 5" type of team with 5 freshmen starters next year. It's never been done.

Duke has a huge fan base and that big tent occasionally becomes unwieldy. Experience whiplash reading posts claiming Duke can't win with multiple OADs or that Duke can only win with five or six new shiny recruits every year. Single elimination tournaments are inherently a crapshoot and K's sell by date is rapidly approaching. Heightens both the sense of urgency and the anxiety.

[English]

I don't believe I've mocked anyone for their optimism for incoming recruits, but just check out all 4 final four teams. What do you see? Juniors and seniors up and down each roster. And not just this year. Every year. Maybe once every 4 or 5 years, a UK or Duke team with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through, but that's the exception, not the rule.

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

[kAzE]

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

I'm not against signing OADs at all. Just as long as we get some guys who will stick around to lead and teach the young guys the ropes. Unless Luke or Grayson sticks around, the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of that next year. That's why I keep hoping those guys come back.

[COYS]

Okay, so that's like 5-6 teams in the last 7 years, out of 28 teams. Maybe my "every 4-5 years" comment was off, but the vast majority of final four teams are still heavily laden with older players.

I think it's also important to remember that there are a finite number of elite freshmen who are capable of taking a team to the Final Four in any given season. I think a more interesting question would be to see what percentage of teams that feature multiple top freshmen* makes it to the Final Four. Some high school classes are weaker than others. There are only so many elite freshmen to go around. There are probably only 1-3 teams per year that really fit the description of a One-and-Done-led team. In this sense, I actually think the track record is pretty dang good for these types of teams. UK has had lots of success reaching the Final Four while staring multiple freshmen who are also top NBA prospects. Obviously, 2015 Duke counts, too. And I still think Duke 2017 would have been much better if we had been able to play our top freshmen more, because that would mean they were healthy and playing up to their ability instead of trying to shake off the rust or get up to speed after preseason injuries.

I totally agree that a team full of OAD talent benefits from veteran talent, as well. But I also think the track record of OAD-led teams has been pretty good, too. Considering how few teams with multiple OAD's compete every year, 5-6 teams over that span is a pretty good success rate.


*I am open to figuring out how to define "multiple top freshmen." I would probably argue for: multiple freshmen ranked in the top 20 of the RSCI that are expected to be lottery picks in a consensus of mock drafts.

[left_hook_lacey]

Harry is finito at Duke. Just announced.

[COYS]

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

You beat me to it. If you're playing the percentages, it seems that teams with multiple OAD players fare very well in the tournament while teams with multiple OAD players + a few talented veterans are ideal.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

[English]

I'm not against signing OADs at all. Just as long as we get some guys who will stick around to lead and teach the young guys the ropes. Unless Luke or Grayson sticks around, the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of that next year. That's why I keep hoping those guys come back.

I suspect you and I don't have much ground for disagreement on any of these points. I also suspect this will be the first time in memory that Duke fans will be waiting with bated breath for the deadline for NBA Draft withdrawal...i.e., I anticipate Luke & Grayson (and possibly Marques) to at least test the waters.

[Rich]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.

Recruiting a current Duke player? Is that a euphemism for convincing someone considering transferring to stay?

And as I type this, Harry Giles has announced he's gone.

[TKG]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

The competition for playing time will be fierce this summer and into the fall. Given the exodus which has occurred, thus far, I would think minutes will be up for grabs. We might be forced to play more than 7 players.

[Olympic Fan]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters. I'm only saying this because people in the 2017 recruiting thread seem to think we can win a championship with a "Fab 5" type of team with 5 freshmen starters next year. It's never been done.

I read the same threads and haven't seen that.

Yes, there are those who want a Fab Five ... but the same people want a solid core coming back -- Jackson and either Allen or Kennard at the very least.

[Wander]

I feel like you did no research in to this, and just assumed all of UK's teams are underclassmen. With the exception of 2014 (when they were an 8 seed), each of those UK final four teams had at least 3 upperclassmen in their top 7 rotation. That's not "a bunch of freshmen and sophomores."

I think you're being a little nitpicky. It's logistically nearly impossible to literally field a team of all freshmen since teams play rotations of 7+ guys. Kentucky's Final Four teams are, in fact, focused on underclassmen.

[Jeffrey]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

Coach K announced he is returning next year!

[kAzE]

I read the same threads and haven't seen that.

Yes, there are those who want a Fab Five ... but the same people want a solid core coming back -- Jackson and either Allen or Kennard at the very least.

Here's one:



The plan is Duval-Trent-Knox-Carter-Bamba.


I speculate we close this recruiting cycle with a bang.

Guards- Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr., and Alex O'Connell
Wings- Kevin Knox
Bigs- Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba

That is a preseason number 1 team in America based on freshmen alone.

I think the Knox choice is pretty simple. Come be the next Tatum/Winslow/Parker/Ingram.

I also think the Bamba choice is pretty simple. Kentucky has a ton of bigs and they aren't a "smart" school with a great network like Duke. I just can't envision him going to Michigan or Texas.

Duval gets the keys to be the starting PG on the number 1 team in America.



I think this is going to be a very exciting couple of weeks. :)

I'd remind this poster that UK's 2012-13 team was ranked #1 in the preseason and missed the NCAAT entirely.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Coach K announced he is returning next year!

Did he? I would totally accept that. We have gotten to the point where every year I wonder....

[Jeffrey]

Did he? I would totally accept that. We have gotten to the point where every year I wonder...

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete..... now, back to kAzE.

[hudlow]

Someone drop some positivity for me?

You're still a Duke fan.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete.... now, back to kAzE.

I totally accept that answer.

[kAzE]

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete... now, back to kAzE.

Whoa, since when was I the pessimist of this board? I've ALWAYS been an optimist on this forum. If you think otherwise, I'd direct you to this post, which I made at halftime of the Duke/UNC game in the ACC tournament this year:


click the link

I'll just be less so if we don't have a returning upperclassmen. I still think even with Frank Jackson leading the team, we're a sweet 16 team. I'd just temper championship expectations.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Recruiting a current Duke player? Is that a euphemism for convincing someone considering transferring to stay?


Could also be counseling a player to return to Duke rather than leaving for the NBA (Luke, Grayson, or Bolden).

[TKG]

I still think even with Frank Jackson leading the team, we're a sweet 16 team. I'd just temper championship expectations.

Love your optimism, but this year's team could not reach the Sweet 16. Given the number of question marks surrounding the make up of next year's Blue Devils, we might want to slow our roll just a wee bit.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Love your optimism, but this year's team could not reach the Sweet 16. Given the number of question marks surrounding the make up of next year's Blue Devils, we might want to slow our roll just a wee bit.

In terms of talent, the team this year was Final game material. Turns out the team had plenty of flaws that were a product of injuries, lack of defensive cohesion, and lack of PG. But the team was clearly FF material.

Next year, with Frank Jackson at the helm and coupled with Trent and Wendall, we are an NCAA team. Throw in Duval, and we're Sweet 16 material. Throw in Kennard or Allen and Knox, and we're FF. On paper.

And that's the key. On paper vs on the floor.

[CDu]

Love your optimism, but this year's team could not reach the Sweet 16. Given the number of question marks surrounding the make up of next year's Blue Devils, we might want to slow our roll just a wee bit.

This year's team won the ACC tournament. We lost essentially a road game to a team that would then wallop Baylor by 20 and then beat Florida to get to the Final Four. In other words, we played a Final Four team as close as anyone else in the tournament has so far. We also beat another of the final four teams 2 of 3 times.

To say that this team could not reach the Sweet 16 is wrong. We did not, but that is more a statement of circumstance than it is a statement about this team's quality.

[weezie]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss...

Oh come on Trouble, take that frown and geeesh. Opening Day is looming! Who hates the coaches?! Maybe some whiner dumbbells but who cares what they think anyway.
Chins up my man!

[TKG]

This year's team won the ACC tournament. We lost essentially a road game to a team that would then wallop Baylor by 20 and then beat Florida to get to the Final Four. In other words, we played a Final Four team as close as anyone else in the tournament has so far. We also beat another of the final four teams 2 of 3 times.

To say that this team could not reach the Sweet 16 is wrong. We did not, but that is more a statement of circumstance than it is a statement about this team's quality.

When provided the opportunity to advance to the Sweet 16, this Blue Devil team was not successful. How's that? ��

[TKG]

and we're FF. On paper. And that's the key. On paper vs on the floor.

Probably THE lesson from the 2016-2017 Blue Devil season.

[CDu]

When provided the opportunity to advance to the Sweet 16, this Blue Devil team was not successful. How's that? ��

Sure. This was a Final Four caliber team that ran into the wrong team on the wrong day a few rounds too early.

[Jeffrey]

Whoa, since when was I the pessimist of this board? I've ALWAYS been an optimist on this forum.

It's all good, kAzE. I meant the next post is yours.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Whoa, since when was I the pessimist of this board? I've ALWAYS been an optimist on this forum.

There is only one pessimist of this board. ;)

[curtis325]

In terms of talent, the team this year was Final game material. Turns out the team had plenty of flaws that were a product of injuries, lack of defensive cohesion, and lack of PG. But the team was clearly FF material.

Next year, with Frank Jackson at the helm and coupled with Trent and Wendall, we are an NCAA team. Throw in Duval, and we're Sweet 16 material. Throw in Kennard or Allen and Knox, and we're FF. On paper.

And that's the key. On paper vs on the floor.

The floor is a paper roof.

[devildeac]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw