Early Poll -- Predict Duke's ACC wins

[Jumbo]

How many games will Duke win in the ACC? (The software limits the poll to 14 options.) Figured we'd take a look now, again before the start of the season and then again before the start of ACC play.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Would anyone here expect me to pick something other than 16 wins? I think not!

[Troublemaker]

13. A split with Carolina and then two slipups somewhere else.

[ACCBBallFan]

I see the high water mark being 12 and a tie with UNC for first in ACC.

Unbalanced ACC schedule could work either positively of negatively for Duke, depending on if they can beat GA T and Clemson at home and win @ FSU, VA T and Wake.

(Ignoring all home and homes where there is no schedule advantage or disadvantage other than the skill level of the teams) IMO, the ACC unbalanced schedule games most likely to affect overall ACC Standings are (order is expected ACC finish, road games, then home games)

UNC (2 games): @ GA Tech and @ Miami

Duke (2-3): vs. GA T and vs. Clemson, and maybe @ FSU

NC St (2-4): vs. GA T and vs. Miami and maybe @ MD and @ UVA

GA Tech (5): @ Duke, @ NC St, vs. UNC, vs. MD, and vs. FSU

Miami (4): @ NC St and vs. UNC, vs. MD and vs. UVA

Clemson (3): @ Duke, @ MD and @ UVA

MD (4-5): @ GA T, @ Miami, and vs. Clemson, vs. FSU and maybe vs. NC St.

UVA (4-5): @ Miami, @ FSU, @ WF and vs. Clemson and maybe vs. NC St.

FSU (5-6): @ MD, @ GA T, @ VA T and vs. UVA, vs. BC and maybe vs. Duke

BC (2): @ FSU and vs. WF

VA T (1): vs. FSU

WF (2): @ BC and vs. UVA
.

[feldspar]

It's funny, I knew before I even clicked on the results that Ozzie was going to vote for 16 wins.

And I was right! Way to go, Ozzie.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

It's funny, I knew before I even clicked on the results that Ozzie was going to vote for 16 wins.

And I was right! Way to go, Ozzie.

And thanks to KarlBeem for joining me!

[feldspar]

I went with 9-7.

Wins: Virginia, @VaTech, @Maryland, Miami, BC, Maryland, @Wake, @Miami, @Virginia

Losses: @FSU, Clemson, NCSU, @UNC, GaTech, @NCSU, UNC

Historically, we struggle at FSU, and they had a great recruiting class this year. Clemson's going to come into Cameron looking for payback after last year's debacle with the clockle. And, like Virginia Tech did, I think they'll exact their revenge. NC State I think is going to be good this year. Not great, but good. Georgia Tech is going to be in the top level of the league and we'll drop one to them. UNC is just better than us. We don't have anyone who can guard Speedy Gonzalez (aka Ty Lawson) and Hansblahblah is going to be a beast to guard (although we will be able to do more effective double-teaming on him with Wright gone). Either way, I don't see us beating them in either game.

All in all, an slight improvement over last season, but not by much. I'm guessing we finish fourth behind UNC, Georgia Tech and Clemson with VaTech nipping at our heels (if they can find someone to replace Dowdell's points).

Of course, I hope I'm wrong, but that's what my gut is telling me.

[Wander]

All in all, an slight improvement over last season, but not by much. I'm guessing we finish fourth behind UNC, Georgia Tech and Clemson with VaTech nipping at our heels (if they can find someone to replace Dowdell's points).


What makes you think Georgia Tech is going to do better than Duke, NC State and Maryland? Same question with Virginia Tech, minus Duke.

[Bluedawg]

I think Mr. King is going to have a much larger influence that most people seem to think he will have

[riverside6]

I'll give you Clemson and maybe Georgia Tech, but the Hokies? Other than AD Vassallo and Deron Washington, the cupboard is bare. Their likely starting lineup is...

PG: Hank Thorns
SG: AD Vassallo
SF: Deron Washington
PF: Lewis Witcher
C: Cheick Diakite

Also, there bench is pretty much all freshmen. Greenberg would be happy with 5 conference wins, I'd bet.

[feldspar]

What makes you think Georgia Tech are going to do better than Duke, NC State and Maryland? Same question with Virginia Tech, minus Duke.

You know what? It's been so long since I looked at the ACC rosters that I actually forgot that Crittendon and Young both jumped to the NBA as well as Dowdell AND Gordon. My bad. I thought Jamon Gordon was still around.

I'll have to go back and re-evaluate.

[Wander]

Haha yeah, just wondering, because the general consensus is that Virginia Tech will be pretty bad, and Georgia Tech mediocre (VT brings in lots of freshmen though, they'll bounce back next season).

[ACCBBallFan]

You know what? It's been so long since I looked at the ACC rosters that I actually forgot that Crittendon and Young both jumped to the NBA as well as Dowdell AND Gordon. My bad. I thought Jamon Gordon was still around.

I'll have to go back and re-evaluate.

Not only Dowdell and Gordon, but also Coleman Collins and their backup Krabbendam went back to Holland, their PG backup Munson transferred, VA Tech will be pretty weak other than Washington and maybe Vassallo.

GA Tech has a ton of athletes but no PG. same problem as most of the top ACC teams except UNC and Duke: NC State, GA Tech, Clemson, and Miami who will be surprisingly good. VA Tech has no PG either but have lots of other challenges noted above.

GA Tech, MD and VA Tech do have the very favorable ACC unbalanced schedules that UVA exploited last year, while Clemson has an awful ACC unbalanced schedule, and FSU's is not good for them either.

[throatybeard]

I voted for 9 wins as well, because we'll be relying so heavily on freshmen about whom we don't know much yet. And I really do think McRoberts' departure may prove not to be "addition by subtraction."

[VaDukie]

I think 9-7 is wildily pessimistic, but I guess it's better to exceed expectations than dissapoint.

[SilkyJ]

Haha yeah, just wondering, because the general consensus is that Virginia Tech will be pretty bad, and Georgia Tech mediocre (VT brings in lots of freshmen though, they'll bounce back next season).

Yea the two Tech's will struggle to be .500 overall this year, let alone in the ACC, imho. Of course, I say this without any knowledge of their OOC sked...

[throatybeard]

I think 9-7 is wildly pessimistic, but I guess it's better to exceed expectations than disappoint.

That's probably what folks would have said last year. Everyone was predicting 13-3 and 12-4.

[VaDukie]

That's probably what folks would have said last year. Everyone was predicting 13-3 and 12-4.

Very true, but consider:
1. Natural development of freshmen.
2. Having a healthy Paulus, Pocius, and McClure (he was not the same player after the 1st BC game)
3. Best freshmen class in the conference, including a guy that is being universally touted as an instant impact player.
4. I don't think any other ACC team is coming into this year as strong as they were last year - with the exception of those pansies in light blue down the road depending on how Thompson develops.
5. We lost 3 games last year by a combined 5 points while playing a very difficult schedule (only 1 game versus Wake, Miami, & Atsur-less State).
6. K is very upbeat about this season, while last year he was tried unsuccesfully to temper expectations.
7. Bilas has us at #9 and he has never propped us up just for the sake of it.

I think between 11 and 13 is the range barring significant injuries.