View Full Version : This is going to be an interesting offseason to say the least
Well, it stinks that the season has ended two weeks too soon. At least we brought home a banner this year, but it does feel a bit bittersweet. Injuries throughout derailed what looked like a potentially great team. Just bad luck.
With the loss, we now face a pretty tricky offseason. We lose Jefferson and Jones to graduation. We will lose Tatum to the draft as he is likely a top-5 pick. We currently have 3 recruits for next season: Carter, Trent, and McConnell. Everything else is in flux.
Potential rising seniors
Allen: Coming into the year, it was a foregone conclusion that he'd go pro. Reports were that he was on the "3-year graduation track." And then, injuries and incidents marred his season. Now? He's not projected to be a first round pick by anyone. Does he still go? Perhaps. Does he stay to try to improve his stock in what appears to be a weaker class next year? Perhaps.
Obi: he appears to be essentially a manager now as it does not appear that he'll be physically able to compete anymore.
Potential rising juniors
Kennard: He surprised most by having an amazing sophomore year. It was a first team All-ACC caliber season, and he was at times unstoppable. His final two games of the season were disappointing relative to how great and how consistent he was this year. Did his season push him into the draft a year or two early? Perhaps.
Jeter: He has become a bit of a forgotten man. Perhaps a bit overranked in what was a weak recruiting class for big men, he looked overwhelmed as a freshman. He looked a bit better at times as a sophomore, but the eventual arrival of Giles and Bolden and back surgery put him out of the rotation. He has the potential to be a key rotation piece next year if he stays and Bolden and Giles go. But with Carter coming in, frontcourt minutes could get scarce really quickly.
Vrankovic: He seems to have settled in as a third or fourth center. He's had some nice moments here and there. But availability of minutes will be the issue for him.
Potential rising sophomores
Jackson: He has the potential to be an absolute stud next year. He seemed shaky with the ball at times, and is probably better suited playing off the ball a bit more where he can focus on his slashing. When forced to play PG, he struggled at times. But I'm extremely excited about his potential next year.
Giles: He is likely to go pro, as I imagine he'll get drafted in the first round on potential. Would love to have him back, but whatever decision he makes is fine with me. If he does somehow decide to return, he could be a real difference maker.
Bolden: Don't know what to expect from him. He has the size and potential, but rarely showed it this year. Nothing would surprise me with regards to his future.
DeLaurier: Great athlete, just couldn't find his way into the rotation this year. There will be minutes available next year, but it is quite rare at Duke for a freshman to go from under 100 minutes on the season to a major role the next year.
White: Less heralded recruit, shot well but looked overwhelmed by the speed of the game on defense in his rare minutes against ACC opponents.
Potential freshmen
Knox: The heir apparent to Tatum.
Duval: The PG that we don't have.
In thinking about it from a "team needs" perspective, we will need at least 2-3 ACC-caliber bigs, ideally a combo forward or two, 3 ACC-caliber wings, and a PG.
Bigs
In for sure: Carter
Maybes: Giles, Bolden, Jeter
In but role unclear: Vrankovic
Combo forwards
Maybe: Knox
In but role unclear: DeLaurier
Wings
In for sure: Jackson
Maybe: Allen, Kennard
In but role unclear: White
PG
Maybe: Duval
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
FerryFor50
03-20-2017, 10:21 AM
Well, it stinks that the season has ended two weeks too soon. At least we brought home a banner this year, but it does feel a bit bittersweet. Injuries throughout derailed what looked like a potentially great team. Just bad luck.
With the loss, we now face a pretty tricky offseason. We lose Jefferson and Jones to graduation. We will lose Tatum to the draft as he is likely a top-5 pick. We currently have 3 recruits for next season: Carter, Trent, and McConnell. Everything else is in flux.
Potential rising seniors
Allen: Coming into the year, it was a foregone conclusion that he'd go pro. Reports were that he was on the "3-year graduation track." And then, injuries and incidents marred his season. Now? He's not projected to be a first round pick by anyone. Does he still go? Perhaps. Does he stay to try to improve his stock in what appears to be a weaker class next year? Perhaps.
Obi: he appears to be essentially a manager now as it does not appear that he'll be physically able to compete anymore.
Potential rising juniors
Kennard: He surprised most by having an amazing sophomore year. It was a first team All-ACC caliber season, and he was at times unstoppable. His final two games of the season were disappointing relative to how great and how consistent he was this year. Did his season push him into the draft a year or two early? Perhaps.
Jeter: He has become a bit of a forgotten man. Perhaps a bit overranked in what was a weak recruiting class for big men, he looked overwhelmed as a freshman. He looked a bit better at times as a sophomore, but the eventual arrival of Giles and Bolden and back surgery put him out of the rotation. He has the potential to be a key rotation piece next year if he stays and Bolden and Giles go. But with Carter coming in, frontcourt minutes could get scarce really quickly.
Vrankovic: He seems to have settled in as a third or fourth center. He's had some nice moments here and there. But availability of minutes will be the issue for him.
Potential rising sophomores
Jackson: He has the potential to be an absolute stud next year. He seemed shaky with the ball at times, and is probably better suited playing off the ball a bit more where he can focus on his slashing. When forced to play PG, he struggled at times. But I'm extremely excited about his potential next year.
Giles: He is likely to go pro, as I imagine he'll get drafted in the first round on potential. Would love to have him back, but whatever decision he makes is fine with me. If he does somehow decide to return, he could be a real difference maker.
Bolden: Don't know what to expect from him. He has the size and potential, but rarely showed it this year. Nothing would surprise me with regards to his future.
DeLaurier: Great athlete, just couldn't find his way into the rotation this year. There will be minutes available next year, but it is quite rare at Duke for a freshman to go from under 100 minutes on the season to a major role the next year.
White: Less heralded recruit, shot well but looked overwhelmed by the speed of the game on defense in his rare minutes against ACC opponents.
Potential freshmen
Knox: The heir apparent to Tatum.
Duval: The PG that we don't have.
In thinking about it from a "team needs" perspective, we will need at least 2-3 ACC-caliber bigs, ideally a combo forward or two, 3 ACC-caliber wings, and a PG.
Bigs
In for sure: Carter
Maybes: Giles, Bolden, Jeter
In but role unclear: Vrankovic
Combo forwards
Maybe: Knox
In but role unclear: DeLaurier
Wings
In for sure: Jackson
Maybe: Allen, Kennard
In but role unclear: White
PG
Maybe: Duval
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
Frank's issues with the ball were more decision making related than handling, IMO. I think he has the tools to be able to develop into a nice PG, but it will take a few years. He'll need to develop those tools to make it to the next level, IMO. He's too small to be a highly regarded 2 guard in the NBA.
Frank's issues with the ball were more decision making related than handling, IMO. I think he has the tools to be able to develop into a nice PG, but it will take a few years. He'll need to develop those tools to make it to the next level, IMO. He's too small to be a highly regarded 2 guard in the NBA.
I agree. Like we discussed at the FSU game, I think we're both really high on Jackson. He has the potential to be really great next year.
DBGoins
03-20-2017, 10:27 AM
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
No way we lose both Allen and Kennard, without getting Knox or Duval. Their decision I'm sure is based on PT and there will be a lot of it if we lose both....
Matches
03-20-2017, 10:33 AM
I like the potential for both Vrank and Javin to break into the rotation next year - maybe not playing major minutes but at least in reserve roles. Agreed Jackson is poised for a big time leap.
We're probably going to have a really young team next year. Not sure if Obi will graduate or stick around but I'm not including him as a player - we could in theory have no seniors and only one recruited junior. If that does prove to be the case it'll be very interesting to see what if any adjustments K makes defensively.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to be a very young team out there. However, if we lose both Grayson and Luke, we're basically only playing underclassmen and Jeter/Vrank, who have a combined 1 year of being a rotation player. I hate to say it, but that's probably a Sweet 16 team at BEST, even if we get Duval and Knox.
Really hope one of Grayson or Luke comes back. Would love for both to give it one more go, but I will respect/support their decision either way. Certainly no one would blame either for going pro given their respective situations.
But even then, who becomes the glue guy? Who steps in and fills Matt and Amile's shoes defensively? Who guards the other team's best player? These are tough questions that I'm not sure we have answers for. I certainly hope the freshmen can come in and play great defense, but I wouldn't bank on that. It's too early to say for sure, but we have the look of yet another elite offensive unit who can't really defend.
No way we lose both Allen and Kennard, without getting Knox or Duval. Their decision I'm sure is based on PT and there will be a lot of it if we lose both...
I don't think either Knox or Duval are concerned about playing time wherever they go. And Knox isn't really competing with Allen and Kennard for PT anyway.
It's not simply a matter of playing time for those guys. They'll get playing time at whatever program they go to. We could certainly lose both Allen and Kennard and not land either Knox or Duval. We could also keep at least one of Allen and Kennard and get both Knox and Duval.
That's part of what makes this such a big offseason. The next couple of months could go in a number of different directions. We could conceivably be stacked again or we could be incredibly lacking in experience. There are SO many potential moving parts to get figured out.
Bluealum
03-20-2017, 10:37 AM
Well, it stinks that the season has ended two weeks too soon. At least we brought home a banner this year, but it does feel a bit bittersweet. Injuries throughout derailed what looked like a potentially great team. Just bad luck.
With the loss, we now face a pretty tricky offseason. We lose Jefferson and Jones to graduation. We will lose Tatum to the draft as he is likely a top-5 pick. We currently have 3 recruits for next season: Carter, Trent, and McConnell. Everything else is in flux.
Potential rising seniors
Allen: Coming into the year, it was a foregone conclusion that he'd go pro. Reports were that he was on the "3-year graduation track." And then, injuries and incidents marred his season. Now? He's not projected to be a first round pick by anyone. Does he still go? Perhaps. Does he stay to try to improve his stock in what appears to be a weaker class next year? Perhaps.
Obi: he appears to be essentially a manager now as it does not appear that he'll be physically able to compete anymore.
Potential rising juniors
Kennard: He surprised most by having an amazing sophomore year. It was a first team All-ACC caliber season, and he was at times unstoppable. His final two games of the season were disappointing relative to how great and how consistent he was this year. Did his season push him into the draft a year or two early? Perhaps.
Jeter: He has become a bit of a forgotten man. Perhaps a bit overranked in what was a weak recruiting class for big men, he looked overwhelmed as a freshman. He looked a bit better at times as a sophomore, but the eventual arrival of Giles and Bolden and back surgery put him out of the rotation. He has the potential to be a key rotation piece next year if he stays and Bolden and Giles go. But with Carter coming in, frontcourt minutes could get scarce really quickly.
Vrankovic: He seems to have settled in as a third or fourth center. He's had some nice moments here and there. But availability of minutes will be the issue for him.
Potential rising sophomores
Jackson: He has the potential to be an absolute stud next year. He seemed shaky with the ball at times, and is probably better suited playing off the ball a bit more where he can focus on his slashing. When forced to play PG, he struggled at times. But I'm extremely excited about his potential next year.
Giles: He is likely to go pro, as I imagine he'll get drafted in the first round on potential. Would love to have him back, but whatever decision he makes is fine with me. If he does somehow decide to return, he could be a real difference maker.
Bolden: Don't know what to expect from him. He has the size and potential, but rarely showed it this year. Nothing would surprise me with regards to his future.
DeLaurier: Great athlete, just couldn't find his way into the rotation this year. There will be minutes available next year, but it is quite rare at Duke for a freshman to go from under 100 minutes on the season to a major role the next year.
White: Less heralded recruit, shot well but looked overwhelmed by the speed of the game on defense in his rare minutes against ACC opponents.
Potential freshmen
Knox: The heir apparent to Tatum.
Duval: The PG that we don't have.
In thinking about it from a "team needs" perspective, we will need at least 2-3 ACC-caliber bigs, ideally a combo forward or two, 3 ACC-caliber wings, and a PG.
Bigs
In for sure: Carter
Maybes: Giles, Bolden, Jeter
In but role unclear: Vrankovic
Combo forwards
Maybe: Knox
In but role unclear: DeLaurier
Wings
In for sure: Jackson
Maybe: Allen, Kennard
In but role unclear: White
PG
Maybe: Duval
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
Great Post and organization. This is what I've been thinking about this morning, rather than refs, seeding, OAD's, Greenville, etc.
K seemed happy with his team, if not the result. Interesting that he brought Tatum and Grayson to the podium and not his two graduating seniors. Perhaps a way to let them say goodbye as well...
If Grayson is gone ( NBA money/almost graduated/sick of media scrutiny and fan hatred), then it feels like Kennards decision is extremely critical to next season. Even with him and Duval we would only likely have 3 guards in the rotation. Wow!
Regardless of what happens, it's going to be a very young team out there. If we lose both Grayson and Luke, we're basically only playing underclassmen and Jeter/Vrank, who have a combined 1 year of being a rotation player. I hate to say it, but that's probably a Sweet 16 team at BEST, even if we get Duval and Knox.
Really hope one of Grayson or Luke comes back. Would love for both to give it one more go, but I will respect/support their decision either way. Certainly no one would blame either for going pro given their respective situations.
Yeah, if we lose both Kennard and Allen then there would be no seniors and two juniors with a combined 600 minutes of play for their careers (i.e., the equivalent of one season of 15-20 mpg).
We are going to be young regardless. But we could be unbelievably young.
scottdude8
03-20-2017, 10:41 AM
I consider speculating optimistically about next season as the second step in getting over the hangover of the end of the season (the first, of course, is blaming every possible circumstance besides us not playing well, i.e. the refs, essentially playing on the road, etc.). So I'm totally on board for doing that, here instead of in my own thread since you essentially beat me to the punch, lol.
I view our potential losses in three categories:
-Definite, or almost so: Amile, Matt, Jayson (99.9%)
-More than likely, but reasonable possibility of return: Harry, Grayson
-More than likely to return, but probably more like 50/50: Luke, Marques
-I think we can agree anyone else leaving, at this moment, would be a shock
As you mentioned, we gain Carter, Trent, and McConnell for sure, with the possibility of some other recruits, but I won't speculate on any of that.
Considering all that, lets think about three cases:
1) We get extremely lucky and everyone who has a reasonable chance of returning does. Such a roster could look like
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Grayson, Harry, Wendell Carter
-Key Bench: Gary Trent, Marques, Chase, Vrank
-Reserves: McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is a top 5 team, not even considering the possibility of new recruits. It would have a legitimate 4 or 5 man big rotation, and a potential top 10 NBA pick coming off the bench in a four man guard rotation
2) We lose the most likely players to go in Harry and Grayson
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Trent, Marques, Carter
-Key Bench: Chase, Vrank, McConnell
-Reserves: DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is still a national championship contender, but significantly shorter rotation. This team would probably need a boost from a late recruit to be a major contender
3) Worst case scenario, where we lose everyone we could reasonably lose
-Starters: Frank, Trent, ?, ?, Carter
-Everybody else: Chase, Vrank, McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This would be painful, since we'd essentially be losing any sort of continuity from the last two seasons into this one. We'd need a few late recruits and would be a Kentucky like team of mostly freshman.
My overall takeaway: if the right guys come back, next season could be what we were hoping this season could be, i.e. a once-in-a-lifetime talented team. With reasonable attrition, we're still a legit national title contender. With crazy attrition, I would rail against the one-and-done system harder than I ever have before.
Let the countdown clock begin!
FerryFor50
03-20-2017, 10:46 AM
Yeah, if we lose both Kennard and Allen then there would be no seniors and two juniors with a combined 600 minutes of play for their careers (i.e., the equivalent of one season of 15-20 mpg).
We are going to be young regardless. But we could be unbelievably young.
I'd be shocked if we lost Allen *and* Kennard.
It's a very deep draft class this season and Allen is no longer a guaranteed first rounder. Kennard faded a bit down the stretch and might be better served to leave the following season with a weaker class.
Will be interesting to see.
OldPhiKap
03-20-2017, 10:47 AM
I think April 23 is the date by which an underclassman must declare for the draft, and May 24 is the date by which players who declare can pull their names back. Someone who knows better can check me on that. But we should know a lot more within a month or so, and then maybe hoping for a change of thought for another month beyond.
Good luck to each young man as they weigh their options. I'm happy with whatever they each choose.
I consider speculating optimistically about next season as the second step in getting over the hangover of the end of the season (the first, of course, is blaming every possible circumstance besides us not playing well, i.e. the refs, essentially playing on the road, etc.). So I'm totally on board for doing that, here instead of in my own thread since you essentially beat me to the punch, lol.
I view our potential losses in three categories:
-Definite, or almost so: Amile, Matt, Jayson (99.9%)
-More than likely, but reasonable possibility of return: Harry, Grayson
-More than likely to return, but probably more like 50/50: Luke, Marques
-I think we can agree anyone else leaving, at this moment, would be a shock
As you mentioned, we gain Carter, Trent, and McConnell for sure, with the possibility of some other recruits, but I won't speculate on any of that.
Considering all that, lets think about three cases:
1) We get extremely lucky and everyone who has a reasonable chance of returning does. Such a roster could look like
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Grayson, Harry, Wendell Carter
-Key Bench: Gary Trent, Marques, Chase, Vrank
-Reserves: McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is a top 5 team, not even considering the possibility of new recruits. It would have a legitimate 4 or 5 man big rotation, and a potential top 10 NBA pick coming off the bench in a four man guard rotation
2) We lose the most likely players to go in Harry and Grayson
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Trent, Marques, Carter
-Key Bench: Chase, Vrank, McConnell
-Reserves: DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is still a national championship contender, but significantly shorter rotation. This team would probably need a boost from a late recruit to be a major contender
3) Worst case scenario, where we lose everyone we could reasonably lose
-Starters: Frank, Trent, ?, ?, Carter
-Everybody else: Chase, Vrank, McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This would be painful, since we'd essentially be losing any sort of continuity from the last two seasons into this one. We'd need a few late recruits and would be a Kentucky like team of mostly freshman.
My overall takeaway: if the right guys come back, next season could be what we were hoping this season could be, i.e. a once-in-a-lifetime talented team. With reasonable attrition, we're still a legit national title contender. With crazy attrition, I would rail against the one-and-done system harder than I ever have before.
Let the countdown clock begin!
Yeah, I wasn't trying to be negative at all. And I'm agnostic as to what is actually going to happen. I do suspect we'll lose more than just the seniors and Tatum. I am also hopeful that we add more than just the current incoming freshman. But there are a WIDE range of potential rosters for next year, ranging from your scenario 1 in the "best" case to scenario 3 in the worst.
I have put quotes around "best" because in your scenario 1 we would then not be able to add any additional recruits. We would be at the 13 scholarship limit (Obi makes 13). Now, Obi could be asked to relinquish his scholarship to free up one spot if needed.
In that scenario though, we would be very lacking in perimeter players. One of White or DeLaurier or McConnell would almost have to crack the rotation to play Coach K's typically-preferred lineup (5 guards/wings/combo-forwards, 2-3 bigs). We'd have tons of big men, but (like this year) that would likely mean 2-3 bigs playing virtually no minutes.
So my guess would be that we'll lose at least one (if not multiple) of the bigs.
wk2109
03-20-2017, 10:54 AM
Bigs
In for sure: Carter
Maybes: Giles, Bolden, Jeter
In but role unclear: Vrankovic
Combo forwards
Maybe: Knox
In but role unclear: DeLaurier
Wings
In for sure: Jackson
Maybe: Allen, Kennard
In but role unclear: White
PG
Maybe: Duval
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
Nice write up -- one small nit is that Trent and O'Connell are also "In for sure" wings, or perhaps O'Connell goes in the "In but role unclear" wing group with White. What's clear is that only 3 out of the 7-8 rotation spots for next year are filled with any reasonable certainty (Carter, Jackson, Trent).
A few key dates to keep in mind:
April 23, 2017: NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)
June 12, 2017: NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)
Matches
03-20-2017, 10:56 AM
I view our potential losses in three categories:
-Definite, or almost so: Amile, Matt, Jayson (99.9%)
-More than likely, but reasonable possibility of return: Harry, Grayson
-More than likely to return, but probably more like 50/50: Luke, Marques
-I think we can agree anyone else leaving, at this moment, would be a shock
I would not be shocked by other departures. I don't think anyone other than the folks you listed are realistic candidates to leave for the NBA. But other departures are possible. How many of us thought when last season ended that Thornton would leave?
azzefkram
03-20-2017, 11:02 AM
I think bigs are a real wildcard for next year, both in how many and quality. I'd love Harry to stay but he has to go if he's a first rounder. I have significant concerns that Chase may be a rich man's Casey Sanders. I don't think I've ever seen a basketball player fall down as much as Chase does. Hopefully he makes a leap between sophomore and junior year. I have no idea what to make of Marques. K said he was a starter before he was injured. Was that coachspeak? Maybe the injury set him back too far to make up during the season. He probably should come back, but I wouldn't be surprised if he declared. Vrank is a good practice/role player. If he's playing significant minutes, I would think something went very, very wrong. Given the Grand Canyon sized gap between expectation and reality (mostly due to unforeseen circumstances) with respect to Harry and Marques, I will take a wait and see stance concerning Carter and be pleasantly surprised when he turns out to be a stud.
I am not sure what is meant by a combo forward. Is Tatum a combo forward? If so, I didn't see anything this year that would lead me to believe that Javin can fill that role. I always saw Javin as Amile 2.0, which in the grand scheme of things would be a fairly awesome outcome.
I think one of Luke and Grayson comes back. Heck, I wouldn't be shocked if both come back. If they both go, yeesh. Who are our guards? Frank and Gary? That makes Duval a must get. Maybe Waters re-opening his recruitment is a tell.
Our starting point for next season has such a wide range of possibilites. Best case scenario is Luke and Marques come back and we add Knox and Duval to the freshman class. That would be a team Coach K can turn into a title contender.
Nice write up -- one small nit is that Trent and O'Connell are also "In for sure" wings, or perhaps O'Connell goes in the "In but role unclear" wing group with White. What's clear is that only 3 out of the 7-8 rotation spots for next year are filled with any reasonable certainty (Carter, Jackson, Trent).
A few key dates to keep in mind:
April 23, 2017: NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)
June 12, 2017: NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)
Thanks. Yes, I'd put Trent in the "In for sure" and O'Connell in the "In but role unclear". But yes, as of now, I'd say that only Carter, Jackson, and Trent are the guaranteed rotation players for next year. We have lots of potential options to fill those other 4-5 spots in the rotation. But there is a LOT of uncertainty at the moment.
Given the Grand Canyon sized gap between expectation and reality (mostly due to unforeseen circumstances) with respect to Harry and Marques, I will take a wait and see stance concerning Carter and be pleasantly surprised when he turns out to be a stud.
Ha, you're falling into the same trap as last offseason. Change it to "if" and you can count me in.
geraldsneighbor
03-20-2017, 11:15 AM
Unfortunately, I think the reality is this team is going to lose eight players off of the current roster. What is concerning is most of the talent that will be coming in likely won't be on the roster in 2019 so the reset button will be hit again 12 months from now. It is starting to seem like Duke is going to have another thin and inexperienced roster next year and the following. Having experienced players like Grayson, Luke, Amile, and Matt this season was a luxury that the teams going forward likely won't have.
azzefkram
03-20-2017, 11:15 AM
Ha, you're falling into the same trap as last offseason. Change it to "if" and you can count me in.
I know, I know. I always try to have a sunny outlook when it comes to Duke Basketball. I was one of the 14-4 guys.
scottdude8
03-20-2017, 11:18 AM
Yeah, I wasn't trying to be negative at all. And I'm agnostic as to what is actually going to happen. I do suspect we'll lose more than just the seniors and Tatum. I am also hopeful that we add more than just the current incoming freshman. But there are a WIDE range of potential rosters for next year, ranging from your scenario 1 in the "best" case to scenario 3 in the worst.
I have put quotes around "best" because in your scenario 1 we would then not be able to add any additional recruits. We would be at the 13 scholarship limit (Obi makes 13). Now, Obi could be asked to relinquish his scholarship to free up one spot if needed.
In that scenario though, we would be very lacking in perimeter players. One of White or DeLaurier or McConnell would almost have to crack the rotation to play Coach K's typically-preferred lineup (5 guards/wings/combo-forwards, 2-3 bigs). We'd have tons of big men, but (like this year) that would likely mean 2-3 bigs playing virtually no minutes.
So my guess would be that we'll lose at least one (if not multiple) of the bigs.
Didn't mean to say you were being negative at all, my bad if I phrased it that way. Meant it more as I do this as part of my post-season therapy, haha.
With regards to your comments, I'd really be OK if we kept experience and didn't get any new recruits. From what I understand there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/Tyus/Justice caliber still out there (although I could be wrong), and IMHO with the exception of those generational type talents experience usually takes the edge.
Also, in my "best" case scenario I think we'd be fine as long as one of White or McConnell can play spot minutes at the 2/3 (I'm very optimistic about White's future based on what little we saw this year). Plus, I would imagine K would adjust to his roster, as he's so adept at doing, to play a more traditional, NBA style with two bigs on the floor. That would be our huge advantage and we could push that. That being said I agree that we probably lose one or both of Harry and Marques, in which case we'd be back to more of a 3 guard, one combo, one forward/center lineup. But being a guy who loves traditional bigs (which is why I enjoy watching Purdue), a man can dream... haha.
scottdude8
03-20-2017, 11:20 AM
I would not be shocked by other departures. I don't think anyone other than the folks you listed are realistic candidates to leave for the NBA. But other departures are possible. How many of us thought when last season ended that Thornton would leave?
Good point. I think it's an issue of phrasing, haha. I wouldn't be shocked if someone else left in general, but if you asked me about each individual player, I'd say in each individual case I'd be shocked.
I'm so tempted to do a nerdy probability analysis of those two statements but I refuse to ruin people's mourning period with bad math jokes, haha.
Owen Meany
03-20-2017, 11:23 AM
I will be shocked if Giles returns. I hope he goes 10-20 based on potential, signs a deal, removes the knee brace and becomes a very solid player. After his first knee injury it was mentioned many times that he only got back to his old self after removing his knee brace. He just could not afford to do that given his history until he secures his financial future.
I wonder if Kennard's draft position is inflated. If he declares, I think the questions about his athleticism, defense, position, etc will be magnified. And more athletic players, foreign players, etc move up. But are his weaknesses something he can improve? I think that Kennard's front row seat of Allen's year increase the chance he declares.
I would have said Allen was definitely gone. It's hard to imagine wanting even fraction of the media scrutiny he got this year. ESPN made it very clear they were willing to villanize the kid even when they had to fabricate incidents to do so. So it's not something be can avoid by being on his best behaviour. But then again, do you declare knowing you are unlikely to be a first round pick? Maybe he can be like Boozer or even MP3 who got a guaranteed contract despite not being drafted.
Bolden was known in high school to be a low key guy who was going to have to work on his energy level. That's not uncommon among kids his age. So I expected this year to be a learning experience. I think anyone thinking he was OAD was basing this on his size alone, while ignoring the fact that the NBA has sharply turned away from using bids with his skill set. So I'm not sure declaring is actually an attractive option for him.
I have seen Jackson's name mentioned as potential OAD. I think that's from Duke fans who see flashes of really good play, but don't realize how many other really good players there are out there that we don't see.
Derryck Thornton transferred last year despite ample playing time and the opportunity to be the only PG on a team expected to be heavy favorites for the NCAA title. So you can not be sure what is going on in a kids (or his father's) head. So it will be interesting to see how things play out.
budwom
03-20-2017, 11:26 AM
^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.
mattman91
03-20-2017, 11:27 AM
McConnell is actually O'Connell.
Sorry to be that guy...
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-20-2017, 11:27 AM
^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.
If he isn't at Duke he goes from one and done to three years at the least. Would be quite a change.
cruxer
03-20-2017, 11:28 AM
I think bigs are a real wildcard for next year, both in how many and quality. I'd love Harry to stay but he has to go if he's a first rounder. I have significant concerns that Chase may be a rich man's Casey Sanders. I don't think I've ever seen a basketball player fall down as much as Chase does. Hopefully he makes a leap between sophomore and junior year.
I went to the open practice Thursday and Chase looked great. Has he played at all recently? Maybe they're trying to redshirt him? It seems he would have been ahead of Vrank in the rotation otherwise...
-c
Ha, you're falling into the same trap as last offseason. Change it to "if" and you can count me in.
Man you said it. Everyone PLEASE stay healthy over the off season, incoming freshmen included . . .
I would say Wendell is a sure thing if he stays healthy. That's the only caveat I'll throw in there. The kid is incredibly skilled, extremely strong, smart, and has a good head on his shoulders. As long as he stays healthy, he will be one of our best scorers, and should lead the team in rebounding. I don't know much about his defensive chops yet, but in terms of scoring and rebounding, I'm confident he will be VERY good . . . if he stays healthy.
^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.
I hope you're wrong, too. I hope he and Jeter both return, and have a spot in the rotation next year. Both of those guys really didn't get a chance this year to show what they are capable of.
scottdude8
03-20-2017, 11:30 AM
^ Regarding Bolden, I don't expect him to be OAD, but I also think it's unlikely he plays for Duke next year. I very much hope I'm wrong.
Any inside info there, or is that just reading the tea leaves? I have no inside info besides what I've seen on the court and similarities to the situations of past Duke players, specifically Gbinije a few seasons back, so I'm similarly concerned. But I also think in the "get to the NBA quick" era, transferring would be a weird choice for a guy with first round potential (I think Rodney Hood was very much an unusual case in that regard, but it also seems to have served him well given how well he's performing in the NBA right now).
budwom
03-20-2017, 11:33 AM
If he isn't at Duke he goes from one and done to three years at the least. Would be quite a change.
Yeah, I'm hoping that calculus makes him susceptible to K's retention efforts.
With regards to your comments, I'd really be OK if we kept experience and didn't get any new recruits. From what I understand there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/Tyus/Justice caliber still out there (although I could be wrong), and IMHO with the exception of those generational type talents experience usually takes the edge.
The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.
Also, in my "best" case scenario I think we'd be fine as long as one of White or McConnell can play spot minutes at the 2/3 (I'm very optimistic about White's future based on what little we saw this year). Plus, I would imagine K would adjust to his roster, as he's so adept at doing, to play a more traditional, NBA style with two bigs on the floor. That would be our huge advantage and we could push that. That being said I agree that we probably lose one or both of Harry and Marques, in which case we'd be back to more of a 3 guard, one combo, one forward/center lineup. But being a guy who loves traditional bigs (which is why I enjoy watching Purdue), a man can dream... haha.
If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.
1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.
2. I'm also not all that sure that White and McConnell will be ready to contribute key minutes next year. White definitely didn't look up to it against ACC competition this year.
scottdude8
03-20-2017, 11:45 AM
The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.
If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.
1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.
2. I'm also not all that sure that White and McConnell will be ready to contribute key minutes next year. White definitely didn't look up to it against ACC competition this year.
All good points. TBH I didn't realize all the recruits were that solid... I was under the impression that they were 10-25 ranked guys, not Top 10. I think I got excited about Trent and Carter and stopped following recruiting in detail.
That makes things a lot more interesting, to be sure.
Billy Dat
03-20-2017, 11:46 AM
The three guys that we are recruiting are Bamba (#1 recruit in the class and a potential game-changing interior player), Duval (#5 recruit and the top PG in the class), and Knox (#9 recruit and the #2 combo forward in the class). Each offers something that we either definitely don't have (in the case of Duval and Knox) or might not have (in the case of Bamba if Giles and Bolden are gone). So I think that I disagree with your assessment that there isn't a Tatum/Okafor/T.Jones/Winslow recruit still out there.
If one of White and McConnell can step in as a rotation player next year AND we do commit to a two-big lineup, then maybe we'd be fine. But I'm skeptical for two reasons.
1. Very few teams play with a two-big lineup in this era. Even Purdue doesn't really play a true 2-big lineup that much. Haas and Swanigan combine for about 50 mpg, and share the floor for only about 12 mpg. And when they are on the court together, Swanigan plays like a stretch 4 (he shoots 43% from 3). They play most of the game with a combo forward (Edwards, who shoots 42% from 3) at PF. Mobility and interchangeability is a big part of defensive effectiveness, so the two-big approach is a bit dinosaurish.
It is very tough to get on the court for K these days if you are a big who can't shoot a 3 or guard the perimeter. In most cases, we only play one guy like that at a time, and he is surrounded by 4 guys that can shoot and drive. This year, it was Amile. Harry had a rep as a shooter, but we saw only the most fleeting glimpses. As such, assuming Harry leaves, when you look at Bolden/Jeter/Javin/Vrank and then with us recruiting Bamba...if we have all of them...one will start, one will come off the bench...and the other 3 won't play at all...if you agree with that assessment and do the math, it's hard to picture everyone sticking around.
McConnell is actually O'Connell.
Sorry to be that guy...
Yeesh. No need to apologize. That is an embarrassing mistake on my part.
It is very tough to get on the court for K these days if you are a big who can't shoot a 3 or guard the perimeter. In most cases, we only play one guy like that at a time, and he is surrounded by 4 guys that can shoot and drive. This year, it was Amile. Harry had a rep as a shooter, but we saw only the most fleeting glimpses. As such, assuming Harry leaves, when you look at Bolden/Jeter/Javin/Vrank and then with us recruiting Bamba...if we have all of them...one will start, one will come off the bench...and the other 3 won't play at all...if you agree with that assessment and do the math, it's hard to picture everyone sticking around.
I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.
79-77
03-20-2017, 11:59 AM
I hate to say it, but my impression generally is that when there is a reasonable possibility that a guy will turn pro -- he usually turns pro.
So I am assuming that Allen, Kennard and Giles all turn pro (along with Tatum). I will be surprised (and delighted!) if either Allen or Kennard returns, and shocked if Giles returns.
I also think it is pretty close to 50/50 that Bolden and, yes, Jackson turn pro as well. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them returns, but I will be surprised if they both return.
On the positive side, I think it's pretty likely that Duke ends up getting one or 2 of the 3 high-end recruits whom Duke is in the mix for -- especially once they see how much PT is going to be available.
I'm also fairly optimistic that one or 2 of Jeter, Vrank and DeLaurier is going to develop into the tough upperclassmen leaders the team is going to need.
Pretty bumpy ride this season but there were plenty of great moments.
Thanks for the memories, Amile and Matt. You were both great.
jimsumner
03-20-2017, 12:01 PM
Should the attrition rate be on the high end, I would expect Duke to seriously evaluate grad-student transfer options.
I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.
Check out his scouting report on DE: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/
I think he's more mobile and better defensively than Okafor, but does not have the elite post scoring game that Okafor has. The report says he has a good mid-range jumper, but his career free throw shooting percentage (63%) makes me wonder about that.
FerryFor50
03-20-2017, 12:04 PM
I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.
I've seen reports that he has range that extends to the three point line.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/
Strengths
-Strong, mature frame. Somewhere between 6'9 and 6'10, but has a huge 7'3 (or possibly 7'4) wingspan that will allow him to play the center position at any level considering his ripped 254 pound frame -Mobile and explosive. Looks like he's improved his athleticism. Quick off his feet
-Outstanding finisher around the basket. Has great hands. Bouncy and powerful off two feet. Great pick and roll target
-Has some skill around the paint as well. Throws in swooping hook shots with either hand
-Made a handful of 3s in the EYBL as well as in the USA Basketball training camp. Looks like something he can continue to develop
-Mid-range stroke looks good
-Shows some flashes putting the ball down in a straight line. Can bulldoze his way through the lane with his strength
-Solid passer. Has a good basketball IQ
-Protects the rim with timing, length and smarts
-Loves to compete on the interior on both ends of the floor. Has no qualms about throwing his body around
-Plays with great intensity level defensively. Covers ground well
Weaknesses
-Early bloomer physically. Body hasn't changed much in the last two years.
-Very good athlete, but not a freak
-Relies heavily on his strength operating with his back to the basket. Will need to continue to add counter moves and polish as the competition stiffens.
-Still working on the consistency of his outside shot. Mechanics are sound. Just not always on balance with his footwork. Leaves a lot of his misses short
-Shot just 59% from the free throw line in EYBL play. 67% at the U17s. Career 63%
-Bites on fakes defensively. Will get backed down at times. Still working on making the right rotations and reads, particularly on the pick and roll
Billy Dat
03-20-2017, 12:05 PM
I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.
I guess another way to look at it is that with K, you have to be one of the top 7. If the top 7 include 2 elite low block monsters who can't shoot beyond 15 feet, then he'll find a way to work with them...but what are the odds that would ever happen?
I suspect that Antonio is a 4 year Duke player. The rest of the front court guys I mentioned earlier....I could never blame a kid for choosing to leave if they aren't seeing the court. Imagine being good enough to be recruited by Duke and then never playing when you could be somewhere else, a good somewhere else with a good coach, and starting. Would you rather ride the bench at Duke or start at Wichita State? Dayton? maybe even some bigger name programs? Granted, you lose "the sweet life" of charter planes, 5 star hotels, all the value that comes with the Duke education and network (both the school and the basketball network). It's really hard for these guys.
Check out his scouting report on DE: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/
I think he's more mobile and better defensively than Okafor, but does not have the elite post scoring game that Okafor has. The report says he has a good mid-range jumper, but his career free throw shooting percentage (63%) makes me wonder about that.
Yeah, even that scouting report doesn't really change my feelings about his perimeter defensive skills. Everything centers around his post play defensively, and potential shooting touch away from the basket. None of the scouting below suggests that being able to defend outside the paint is likely to be a strength for him:
http://insider.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/evaluation/_/id/187804/wendell-carter (note: Insider access only)
http://www.scout.com/player/189969-wendell-carter/analysis?year=2016
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/wendell-carter
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2016/02/wendell-carter-jr.html
I've seen reports that he has range that extends to the three point line.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/
I'm less concerned about whether or not he can shoot (and even that seems questionable at this point) as I am about whether or not he can defend away from the basket. That is the biggest reason that big guys don't typically play PF at Duke. Coach K values defensive versatility above most other things. He'll allow one low-post-only big man defensively, but unless absolutely forced otherwise he wants his PF to be able to defend on the perimeter. I've not seen a single scouting report that suggests Carter can do that at the college level, and most suggest he's lacking in lateral quickness. Which would not be surprising given his 250+ lb frame as a teenager.
Maybe he's not Okafor and is more Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand. But none of those guys was a PF at Duke.
CrazyNotCrazie
03-20-2017, 12:17 PM
I went to the open practice Thursday and Chase looked great. Has he played at all recently? Maybe they're trying to redshirt him? It seems he would have been ahead of Vrank in the rotation otherwise...
-c
Jeter played 16 games this year so I don't think a redshirt is an option. I'm not sure why they seem to have shut him down. Obviously, looking good when shooting around is a lot different than the contact involved in a real game, particularly as a big, so that might be part of it.
I will read nothing into the end of April NBA declaration date with regards to Grayson. As I understand it, it is now really easy to pull out, so he has little to lose by declaring, working out and seeing where he stands. The biggest downside of that is potential recruits who want to know the make-up of next year's roster before signing won't have much clarity. I would love to be a fly on the wall for all of the conversations Coach K will have with each guy about staying vs. going.
The optimist in me is hoping that next year is something like 1999-2000 where we had a mass exodus, returning players and freshmen stepped up and we had a great year (Sweet 16 exit excluded).
MCFinARL
03-20-2017, 12:21 PM
I have put quotes around "best" because in your scenario 1 we would then not be able to add any additional recruits. We would be at the 13 scholarship limit (Obi makes 13). Now, Obi could be asked to relinquish his scholarship to free up one spot if needed.
Re Obi, since he has now been in college 4 years, he may well graduate--in which case he could use his year of eligibility to play at a lower level, knees permitting, or just get on with his life. All things considered, this seems likely, in which case his scholarship will be available.
Should the attrition rate be on the high end, I would expect Duke to seriously evaluate grad-student transfer options.
Does that mean we get to start speculating about Makai Mason again?
jimsumner
03-20-2017, 12:26 PM
I'm less concerned about whether or not he can shoot (and even that seems questionable at this point) as I am about whether or not he can defend away from the basket. That is the biggest reason that big guys don't typically play PF at Duke. Coach K values defensive versatility above most other things. He'll allow one low-post-only big man defensively, but unless absolutely forced otherwise he wants his PF to be able to defend on the perimeter. I've not seen a single scouting report that suggests Carter can do that at the college level, and most suggest he's lacking in lateral quickness. Which would not be surprising given his 250+ lb frame as a teenager.
Maybe he's not Okafor and is more Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand. But none of those guys was a PF at Duke.
Duke has had success with two bigs.
Examples include Ferry-Laettner, 1989
Abdelaby-Laettner, 1990
Williams-McRoberts, 2006
Plumlee-Kelly, 2013
Less successful, Parks-Meek 1995, Newton-Domzalski 1996
The key to the successful twin-towers tandems is having one of the towers able to play on the perimeter with effectiveness.
On more than one occasion, K began the season with two bigs in the starting lineup and dropped one. Examples include 1987 (Nessley-Ferry), 1991 (Laettner-Palmer), 1992 (Laettner-Parks) and 1999 (Brand-Burgess). I think smaller and quicker rather than bigger and slower is his preference. But he will go bigger and not all that slow if it makes sense.
Duke has had success with two bigs.
Examples include Ferry-Laettner, 1989
Abdelaby-Laettner, 1990
Williams-McRoberts, 2006
Plumlee-Kelly, 2013
Less successful, Parks-Meek 1995, Newton-Domzalski 1996
The key to the successful twin-towers tandems is having one of the towers able to play on the perimeter with effectiveness.
On more than one occasion, K began the season with two bigs in the starting lineup and dropped one. Examples include 1987 (Nessley-Ferry), 1991 (Laettner-Palmer), 1992 (Laettner-Parks) and 1999 (Brand-Burgess). I think smaller and quicker rather than bigger and slower is his preference. But he will go bigger and not all that slow if it makes sense.
Right, that was the point I was making. None of Vrankovic, Bolden, Jeter, and Carter seem suited to defend away from the basket. So if we have all four of those guys, it seems likely that two will not play and the other two will sub for one another. Not guaranteed, of course. If any of those guys do show the ability to defend on the perimeter, that would change things. But nothing suggests that any of those guys have the perimeter defensive skills to play PF at Duke. So I will be surprised if more than two of those guys are in the main rotation next year.
-bdbd
03-20-2017, 12:33 PM
GREAT SUMMARY. THANKS.
In addition to the obvious graduations/departures of Jefferson and Jones, Tatum is clearly gone, and I think Giles is 80% likely to go. It may depend on where he thinks he'd be drafted - if first round/top-20, which I think is the case, then he goes. But if he does stay, he'd be a potential star as he returns to true form. Just remember that he's worried about having another knee injury if he stays. His decision will be really important to our success or failure next year.
I just don't think Grayson ENJOYED his junior year, and the media and opposing fans piling on will just continue. So I think he's 60/40 gone, especially if he find s out he's first-round bound. I think Luke likely stays and is the star.
We really need to sign a true PG more than anything. I hope that we are recruiting toughness. Any more Winslows out there???? :confused: ;)
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 12:40 PM
GREAT SUMMARY. THANKS.
In addition to the obvious graduations/departures of Jefferson and Jones, Tatum is clearly gone, and I think Giles is 80% likely to go. It may depend on where he thinks he'd be drafted - if first round/top-20, which I think is the case, then he goes. But if he does stay, he'd be a potential star as he returns to true form. Just remember that he's worried about having another knee injury if he stays. His decision will be really important to our success or failure next year.
I just don't think Grayson ENJOYED his junior year, and the media and opposing fans piling on will just continue. So I think he's 60/40 gone, especially if he find s out he's first-round bound. I think Luke likely stays and is the star.
We really need to sign a true PG more than anything. I hope that we are recruiting toughness. Any more Winslows out there???? :confused: ;)
I wholeheartedly agree. But toughness is a trait that develops over time, unless - as you mentioned - you find a Winslow.
Regardless, we're crazy young next year. So toughness and defense are likely to be in short supply.
DukieTiger
03-20-2017, 12:49 PM
Should the attrition rate be on the high end, I would expect Duke to seriously evaluate grad-student transfer options.
What do you consider high? Losing 8? 9?
I wholeheartedly agree. But toughness is a trait that develops over time, unless - as you mentioned - you find a Winslow.
Regardless, we're crazy young next year. So toughness and defense are likely to be in short supply.
I don't necessarily agree absolutely with the bolded part. It is true that some players develop toughness over time. But plenty arrive on campus with it. Brand was tough from day one. So was Battier. So was Winslow. So was Singler. So was Tyler Thornton. So was Shelden Williams. So was Nate James. So was Laettner. So was Matt Jones. For others, it took time. Like Scheyer. Like Redick. Like Amile Jefferson. Like Lance Thomas. Like Ryan Kelly. Like Brian Zoubek. It can be recruited, and it can be developed.
I think Carter and Trent (at least in terms of body type) have the potential to up the toughness factor. Both are big, strong, physical players for their positions.
Channing
03-20-2017, 01:04 PM
From the department of totally unfounded conjecture ... any ideas or rumors regarding the point guard from Yale who killed us in the tournament? I remember hearing he was out for the season and would be eligible to be a grad transfer if he wanted. If we are hunting for a pg, probably not a bad set of tires to kick.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 01:07 PM
From the department of totally unfounded conjecture ... any ideas or rumors regarding the point guard from Yale who killed us in the tournament? I remember hearing he was out for the season and would be eligible to be a grad transfer if he wanted. If we are hunting for a pg, probably not a bad set of tires to kick.
I work in New Haven. Kid is amazing but loves Yale.
Wouldn't be surprised if he left or stayed, but my money is on staying.
English
03-20-2017, 01:08 PM
From the department of totally unfounded conjecture ... any ideas or rumors regarding the point guard from Yale who killed us in the tournament? I remember hearing he was out for the season and would be eligible to be a grad transfer if he wanted. If we are hunting for a pg, probably not a bad set of tires to kick.
Take a quick peek at Post #44 in this very thread.
I don't necessarily agree absolutely with the bolded part. It is true that some players develop toughness over time. But plenty arrive on campus with it. Brand was tough from day one. So was Battier. So was Winslow. So was Singler. So was Tyler Thornton. So was Shelden Williams. So was Nate James. So was Laettner. So was Matt Jones. For others, it took time. Like Scheyer. Like Redick. Like Amile Jefferson. Like Lance Thomas. Like Ryan Kelly. Like Brian Zoubek. It can be recruited, and it can be developed.
That Felder kid from last night was tough as nails, and he is a freshman. Definitely agree with you.
Right, that was the point I was making. None of Vrankovic, Bolden, Jeter, and Carter seem suited to defend away from the basket. So if we have all four of those guys, it seems likely that two will not play and the other two will sub for one another. Not guaranteed, of course. If any of those guys do show the ability to defend on the perimeter, that would change things. But nothing suggests that any of those guys have the perimeter defensive skills to play PF at Duke. So I will be surprised if more than two of those guys are in the main rotation next year.
I think this is going to be a problem, and it's the one thing that Coach K hasn't budged on in terms of personnel recently, because having that versatile 4 man is so key to Duke's man to man defensive scheme. Yet, when you have so many talented big men, isn't it somewhat on the coaching staff to figure out a way to make it work?
I think if we have another logjam in the post like this year, the coaching staff will try some different things to make a 3 post player rotation work. If UNC and Roy Williams can do it, the GOAT can absolutely do it. If either one of Bolden or Giles returns, I have imagine 2 of Giles, Bolden, and Carter are starters. I don't know how it would work, but if Hicks and Meeks can start for a #1 seed, we can do it with those guys.
MCFinARL
03-20-2017, 01:09 PM
I work in New Haven. Kid is amazing but loves Yale.
Wouldn't be surprised if he left or stayed, but my money is on staying.
But I don't think he will be allowed to play, will he? Doesn't the Ivy League not allow redshirt years? Or did he withdraw from school this year to retain eligibility for next year?
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 01:11 PM
But I don't think he will be allowed to play, will he? Doesn't the Ivy League not allow redshirt years? Or did he withdraw from school this year to retain eligibility for next year?
On the red shirt, yes, the Ivy doesn't issue them. But if he graduates this year, he's free to do whatever he wants. Also, if he decides to transfer, I'm sure there is a loophole somewhere, right?
CrazyNotCrazie
03-20-2017, 01:11 PM
I work in New Haven. Kid is amazing but loves Yale.
Wouldn't be surprised if he left or stayed, but my money is on staying.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think staying is an option. I think the Ivy League rule is that you have four years and that is it, so even if he has more basketball eligibility by NCAA rules, he can't continue playing basketball there. So if he loves Yale and wants to go to grad school there that is great, but he can no longer play basketball there.
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 01:12 PM
Makai Mason is a junior. Unless he is on a 3-year-plan at Yale, he's not eligible for a grad transfer until after next season.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 01:12 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think staying is an option. I think the Ivy League rule is that you have four years and that is it, so even if he has more basketball eligibility by NCAA rules, he can't continue playing basketball there. So if he loves Yale and wants to go to grad school there that is great, but he can no longer play basketball there.
He's currently a junior. So he has three years under his belt, not four.
Jeffrey
03-20-2017, 02:03 PM
When was the last time Bolden was on the bench? Is he better or still sick?
MCFinARL
03-20-2017, 02:18 PM
He's currently a junior. So he has three years under his belt, not four.
Oh, good point. Could have checked that myself, I guess--sorry. So he can definitely play one more year at Yale, and then he can consider his options if he wants to keep playing.
When was the last time Bolden was on the bench? Is he better or still sick?
Bolden was on the bench for the Round of 64 game, but way off to the side. He was not on the bench for last night's game.
Saratoga2
03-20-2017, 02:29 PM
I guess another way to look at it is that with K, you have to be one of the top 7. If the top 7 include 2 elite low block monsters who can't shoot beyond 15 feet, then he'll find a way to work with them...but what are the odds that would ever happen?
I suspect that Antonio is a 4 year Duke player. The rest of the front court guys I mentioned earlier...I could never blame a kid for choosing to leave if they aren't seeing the court. Imagine being good enough to be recruited by Duke and then never playing when you could be somewhere else, a good somewhere else with a good coach, and starting. Would you rather ride the bench at Duke or start at Wichita State? Dayton? maybe even some bigger name programs? Granted, you lose "the sweet life" of charter planes, 5 star hotels, all the value that comes with the Duke education and network (both the school and the basketball network). It's really hard for these guys.
Attrition to our program can come from the NBA draft or from players who are disappointed with their PT and see little in the future for them.
I doubt if anyone on this site really has crystal ball insight into what will happen between seasons but many of us know the possibilities. We also know that of the approx 15 players that will make up the team we will need a mix of about 7 that coach K will use a lot in actual game situations. Using this year as a model, we had 4 guards, 1 small forward/PF and 2 PFs. We backed them up with 3 PF/Cs (Jeter, Vrank and Bolden), 1 SF (Delaurier) and a big Guard (White). We know that Amile and Matt are leaving and we are pretty certain that Jayson is as well. Grayson also seems highly likely and we have three recruits so far with offers to several more. Does that mean we know something about Kennard or Jackson? Or do we know something about one or more of our bigs. Only time will tell.
Check out his scouting report on DE: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Wendell-Carter-83183/
I think he's more mobile and better defensively than Okafor, ...
A strategically placed chair is better defensively than Okafor ...
ArtVandelay
03-20-2017, 02:35 PM
Right, that was the point I was making. None of Vrankovic, Bolden, Jeter, and Carter seem suited to defend away from the basket. So if we have all four of those guys, it seems likely that two will not play and the other two will sub for one another. Not guaranteed, of course. If any of those guys do show the ability to defend on the perimeter, that would change things. But nothing suggests that any of those guys have the perimeter defensive skills to play PF at Duke. So I will be surprised if more than two of those guys are in the main rotation next year.
I think you're right historically, but I guess the practical question is who is the guy that plays that stretch 4 position for us next year if we don't land Knox? DeLaurier is the only returning guy I can think of that fits that mold. So if we don't get Knox and Bolden returns, do you think DeLaurier starts next year at the 4 with Bolden still glued to the bench? I know this is all speculation right now, but as you note, there's a wide range of roster permutations at this point, so K may find himself in the position of needing to get creative.
proelitedota
03-20-2017, 02:40 PM
It's not a problem of the 4 on offense. It's the 4 on defense. Lance Thomas worked as a 4 because he can guard PFs and SFs.
On offense if you have a 4 that can't shoot, you make them crash the glass for you 1 - 3 spots.
I think you're right historically, but I guess the practical question is who is the guy that plays that stretch 4 position for us next year if we don't land Knox? DeLaurier is the only returning guy I can think of that fits that mold. So if we don't get Knox and Bolden returns, do you think DeLaurier starts next year at the 4 with Bolden still glued to the bench? I know this is all speculation right now, but as you note, there's a wide range of roster permutations at this point, so K may find himself in the position of needing to get creative.
In this particular hypothetical, I don't know. We could end up bumping Gary Trent up to the PF spot. We could end up going with White if he makes a big jump. We could go with DeLaurier. We could go with two bigs. Lots of potential outcomes. I have no idea which will be the outcome.
In terms of guys with size who have the ability to potentially defend away from the basket, though, DeLaurier is the guy who makes the most sense.
DangerDevil
03-20-2017, 02:46 PM
Oh, good point. Could have checked that myself, I guess--sorry. So he can definitely play one more year at Yale, and then he can consider his options if he wants to keep playing.
Not sure of the site (Fan Rag Sports) but they had an article in the middle of February that claims to have inside information that Mason will play at Yale next year and then explore the grad transfer options.
https://www.fanragsports.com/news/mason-play-yale-next-season-become-grad-transfer-spring-2018/
A strategically placed chair is better defensively than Okafor ...
Desk chair, kitchen chair, or like a big ol' Lay-z-boy with an ottoman?
Jeffrey
03-20-2017, 02:54 PM
Desk chair, kitchen chair, or like a big ol' Lay-z-boy with an ottoman?
Are we running zone or M2M?
https://youtu.be/Fbfj2cwfvjM
Probably wishful thinking, but maybe we do go 8-9 deep next year? I misquoted in the title of this post, but the direct quote was:
"We need to become a deeper team."
FerryFor50
03-20-2017, 03:15 PM
https://youtu.be/Fbfj2cwfvjM
Probably wishful thinking, but maybe we do go 8-9 deep next year? I misquoted in the title of this post, but the direct quote was:
"We need to become a deeper team."
You can take that statement two ways.
1) He means that Duke needs to be deeper, in that players are good enough to start, but amenable to coming off the bench.
2) He means that *he* needs to play more guys more minutes and adjust *his* coaching philosophy.
I'm going to guess he meant #1.
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 03:19 PM
https://youtu.be/Fbfj2cwfvjM
Probably wishful thinking, but maybe we do go 8-9 deep next year? I misquoted in the title of this post, but the direct quote was:
"We need to become a deeper team."
No, haha, no. Stop.
If you look up "Need to see it to believe it" in Bartlett's, it just says: "Coach K's 9-man rotation at Duke."
Plus, you can read what he says in several ways.
Maybe he means he would like to have 9 playable players but will still play 7, and this season he felt he only had 7 playable players of which he preferred to play 6. For example.
jv001
03-20-2017, 03:24 PM
Going on my eye test, I think Luke will test the waters along with Grayson. However, I don't think Luke will stay in the draft because he's a poor defender. He has shown at times to be a good rebounding guard. He can't create off the dribble against tough defenders. I look for Luke to return for one more year at least. Grayson could go either way. I think it boils down to how much he thinks he can improve his draft status next season. GoDuke!
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 03:25 PM
No, haha, no. Stop.
If you look up "Need to see it to believe it" in Bartlett's, it just says: "Coach K's 9-man rotation at Duke."
Plus, you can read what he says in several ways.
Maybe he means he would like to have 9 playable players but will still play 7, and this season he felt he only had 7 playable players of which he preferred to play 6. For example.
I take it to mean that Duke players need be start majoring in philosophy and be intellectually deeper.
Cus ya know Coach K will only play 7-8 dudes tops.
uh_no
03-20-2017, 03:28 PM
I take it to mean that Duke players need be start majoring in philosophy and be intellectually deeper.
Cus ya know Coach K will only play 7-8 dudes tops.
i thought it meant that the players were scared to go into the deep end of the pool, making pool cardio sessions a challenge.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 03:29 PM
i thought it meant that the players were scared to go into the deep end of the pool, making pool cardio sessions a challenge.
You are correct. The "deep end of the pool" is the nickname for the paint of South Carolina's half-court D.
I take it to mean that Duke players need be start majoring in philosophy and be intellectually deeper.
Cus ya know Coach K will only play 7-8 dudes tops.
I think there's a pretty big difference between 7 and 8. 8 doesn't sound like that much of an improvement, but it is a lot better than 7, especially in high foul volume games like last night. We had 7 this year. We legitimately played 8 in 2015. It was all we had, but we played all 8 of those guys late in the season, and it turns out that was all we needed.
You can say I'm cherry picking stats for convenience, but I think it's pretty hard to win a national title with 7. Any time there's foul trouble, you're in a pretty bad situation with only 7.
uh_no
03-20-2017, 03:33 PM
I think there's a pretty big difference between 7 and 8. 8 doesn't sound like that much of an improvement, but it is a lot better than 7, especially in high foul volume games like last night. We legitimately played 8 in 2015. It was all we had, but we played all 8 of those guys late in the season, and it turns out that was all we needed.
bolden being out I think hurt a lot. he might have fouled, but at least was a decent shot blocker and might have been able to push people around a bit on offense.
You can take that statement two ways.
1) He means that Duke needs to be deeper, in that players are good enough to start, but amenable to coming off the bench.
2) He means that *he* needs to play more guys more minutes and adjust *his* coaching philosophy.
I'm going to guess he meant #1.
I'm almost positive he meant #1. But you never know. He has been committed to whittling down to a 7-8-man rotation for a long time.
azzefkram
03-20-2017, 03:35 PM
https://youtu.be/Fbfj2cwfvjM
Probably wishful thinking, but maybe we do go 8-9 deep next year? I misquoted in the title of this post, but the direct quote was:
"We need to become a deeper team."
Will... not... get... sucked... in... again.
I'm NOT criticizing Coach K's decision to go with a mostly 7 man rotation this year. I simply saw an interesting quote, and thought it wuld be fun to discuss. Our #8, 9, and 10 guys in the rotation were NOT ready to play rotation minutes in the types of games we played in the latter half of this season. He was right to play 7 guys.
But for those who are adamant about Coach K never changing his coaching philosophy, recall that we NEVER played zone until 2015. But now, we do it almost every game. He may be 70, so even old dogs learn new tricks sometimes. Some of our worst losses this year were to teams that played really deep, so you never know, maybe he learned something from that.
And like I said, it's probably wishful thinking, and I know the most likely situation is that we go 8 deep at the most. However, we still need to have at least 8 guys who can play to go 8 deep. We did not have that this year, whether it was due to injury or whatever reason, we only had 7 this year. Luke played 38-40 minutes almost every single game. Fatigue probably played some factor in his sub-par performance in the NCAAT. Coach K notices these things.
KandG
03-20-2017, 03:44 PM
I'm a pessimist when it comes to players leaving, not because they dislike college or Duke, but just because the clock ticking on young players' draft stock is more of a thing then ever. So I personally expect both Kennard and Allen to leave, though Luke's weekend letdown does make things interesting.
From Chad Ford's latest assessment (http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/18957220/chad-ford-nba-draft-2017-stock-watch-ncaa-tournament-edition) of tourney players' stock:
Stock Down:
Luke Kennard
Kennard was Duke's best scorer all season, but he struggled to find any rhythm in the tournament, going 4-for-18 from the field in Duke's two games and struggling to impose his will on either end. For a guy who was already a first-round bubble prospect, his so-so performance put a dent in what was otherwise an excellent sophomore season.
Stock Neutral:
Harry Giles
During the ACC tournament, it appeared Giles was going to break out of his season-long slumber and be a major factor for the Blue Devils in March. Unfortunately for Duke fans, it didn't happen. He played a total of 15 minutes in two games, took only one shot, grabbed four boards and had one block.
NBA GMs still insist that if his knees check out at the combine then he's a lottery pick, but he sure didn't look like it in the tournament. If he decides to return to Duke for his sophomore year? Scouts say to put him in the top five of the 2018 Big Board.
Grayson Allen
Allen has struggled all season to capitalize on a terrific sophomore year for Duke. He redeemed himself somewhat in the NCAA tournament, averaging 20.5 points and making eight 3-pointers.
I don't think it's enough, however, to get him back into a discussion for the first round. He might need another year at Duke to really rehabilitate his image on and off the court.
Matches
03-20-2017, 03:50 PM
I'm NOT criticizing Coach K's decision to go with a mostly 7 man rotation this year. Our #8, 9, and 10 guys in the rotation were NOT ready to play rotation minutes in the types of games we played in the latter half of this season. He was right to play 7 guys.
Coach K NEVER played zone until 2015. But now, he does it almost every game. He may be 70, but you never know, even old dogs learn new tricks sometimes. And like I said, it's probably wishful thinking, and I know the most likely situation is that we go 8 deep at the most. However, we still need to have at least 8 guys who can play to go 8 deep. We did not have that this year, whether it was due to injury or whatever reason, we only had 7 this year.
I've always believed that 8 deep was really the max that makes much sense in the college game, given only 200 minutes to go around. Ideally you get your front five, a backup guard, a backup wing, and a backup big man. Going 9-10 deep may make sense if you're playing helter-skelter full-court press but where your best players are elite guys (as ours always are), that doesn't really work.
The last two years we've had no real choice but to play a short rotation, and Giles as the 7th guy this year really wasn't conditioned to play more than 15-20 minutes max. I'm a big believer that guys can handle the minutes but it does leave us susceptible to injuries or foul trouble, and with the way games are being called now foul trouble seems to be omnipresent. It'd be nice to be able to have at least 8 guys who could be trusted to be on the floor in key moments. It's going to be hard to get there next year, though, if we have significant attrition in the offseason.
FadedTackyShirt
03-20-2017, 04:10 PM
I'm a pessimist when it comes to players leaving, not because they dislike college or Duke, but just because the clock ticking on young players' draft stock is more of a thing then ever. So I personally expect both Kennard and Allen to leave, though Luke's weekend letdown does make things interesting.
From Chad Ford's latest assessment (http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/18957220/chad-ford-nba-draft-2017-stock-watch-ncaa-tournament-edition) of tourney players' stock:
Stock Down:
Luke Kennard
Kennard was Duke's best scorer all season, but he struggled to find any rhythm in the tournament, going 4-for-18 from the field in Duke's two games and struggling to impose his will on either end. For a guy who was already a first-round bubble prospect, his so-so performance put a dent in what was otherwise an excellent sophomore season.
Stock Neutral:
Harry Giles
During the ACC tournament, it appeared Giles was going to break out of his season-long slumber and be a major factor for the Blue Devils in March. Unfortunately for Duke fans, it didn't happen. He played a total of 15 minutes in two games, took only one shot, grabbed four boards and had one block.
NBA GMs still insist that if his knees check out at the combine then he's a lottery pick, but he sure didn't look like it in the tournament. If he decides to return to Duke for his sophomore year? Scouts say to put him in the top five of the 2018 Big Board.
Grayson Allen
Allen has struggled all season to capitalize on a terrific sophomore year for Duke. He redeemed himself somewhat in the NCAA tournament, averaging 20.5 points and making eight 3-pointers.
I don't think it's enough, however, to get him back into a discussion for the first round. He might need another year at Duke to really rehabilitate his image on and off the court.
Getting all three of Luke, Grayson, and Giles back would be great, but unlikely. Duval, Jackson, Luke, and Grayson would be terrific, but anything less than that means a reclassification or a grad school transfer, which are both problematic.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 04:13 PM
Getting all three of Luke, Grayson, and Giles back would be great, but unlikely. Duval, Jackson, Luke, and Grayson would be terrific, but anything less than that means a reclassification or a grad school transfer, which are both problematic.
There is this dude named Gary Trent Jr who is supposed to be incredible. Also, there are these scholarship players named White and O'Connell who may contribute.
We are not getting Duval, Jackson, Luke, Grayson, and Trent next year. We're just not. That's 5 deserving starters for 3 spots. Ain't happening.
WHOneedsSOX
03-20-2017, 04:14 PM
Getting all three of Luke, Grayson, and Giles back would be great, but unlikely. Duval, Jackson, Luke, and Grayson would be terrific, but anything less than that means a reclassification or a grad school transfer, which are both problematic.
There's pretty much no chance Giles comes back. Some late lottery team will promise him they'll pick him. Someone like Portland who is a pretty good team already but can wait a year or two to hopefully get the Giles we saw a couple years ago.
There is this dude named Gary Trent Jr who is supposed to be incredible. Also, there are these scholarship players named White and O'Connell who may contribute.
We are not getting Duval, Jackson, Luke, Grayson, and Trent next year. We're just not. That's 5 deserving starters for 3 spots. Ain't happening.
It's 5 players for 4 spots (we played our top 4 wings 25 mpg). I think it is probably very unlikely, but I don't think it is impossible. This year we had 4 guards/wings average 25 mpg. And that's with Kennard playing 36 mpg. It is quite feasible to have 5 guys playing. I'd expect us to have 4 guards/wings playing significant (i.e.) minutes.
Doria
03-20-2017, 04:44 PM
I don't have any feel for what might happen. And I'm good with any decisions our players might make with regards to their futures. My only real concern for next year (I should say my major concern, since I have other very real concerns) is experience. But we'll see what happens. There's no use in my fretting over anything before I know what will happen. I'll enjoy seeing our team next year regardless.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 04:55 PM
I don't have any feel for what might happen. And I'm good with any decisions our players might make with regards to their futures. My only real concern for next year (I should say my major concern, since I have other very real concerns) is experience. But we'll see what happens. There's no use in my fretting over anything before I know what will happen. I'll enjoy seeing our team next year regardless.
It's a valid concern, but it's a nearly guaranteed concern. We only have 1 junior and 2.5 sophomores on the roster who contributed (Vrank). The there is a high likelihood that 2+ of those upperclassmen bolt for greener pastures.
Like it or not, we're basically Kentucky next year...
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 05:01 PM
I don't have any feel for what might happen. And I'm good with any decisions our players might make with regards to their futures. My only real concern for next year (I should say my major concern, since I have other very real concerns) is experience. But we'll see what happens. There's no use in my fretting over anything before I know what will happen. I'll enjoy seeing our team next year regardless.
I can't wait to see who the captain or captains will be next season.
There's a decent chance Duke will have a true sophomore captain in Frank for the first time ever. (Rodney Hood was a redshirt sophomore due to his transfer.)
AND, if Frank isn't ready for that responsibility yet, and if there happens to be an alpha among the freshmen with natural leadership abilities, Duke could have its first freshman captain next season.
(Of course, if Luke or Grayson returns, either would be an easy choice for co-captain at least.)
It's a valid concern, but it's a nearly guaranteed concern. We only have 1 junior and 2.5 sophomores on the roster who contributed (Vrank). The there is a high likelihood that 2+ of those upperclassmen bolt for greener pastures.
Like it or not, we're basically Kentucky next year...
I've continually harped on this, but I think our more realistic title aspirations rest squarely on the draft decisions of Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard. If both of them leave, we will still be a really good team, and probably more talented than just about anyone, but title expectations will need to be tempered. Without those 2 guys, we just won't have much experience.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 05:06 PM
I've continually harped on this, but I think our more realistic title aspirations rest squarely on the draft decisions of Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard. If both of them leave, we will still be a really good team, and probably more talented than just about anyone, but title expectations will need to be tempered. Without those 2 guys, we just won't have much experience.
If both leave, 5.5 of our 6.5 rotation is gone.
As per TM's post, Frank will be a guaranteed captain.
After Kennard's poor tournament, I think he's staying. Unfortunately, NBA scouts put so much equity into the tournament. And Kennard had as bad a tournament as anyone.
And I think Grayson's gone. Cus no one deserves another year of bashing. If Grayson stays, he needs to sign a deal with ESPN that pays him $10M post-graduation for all the traffic Grayson has brought to their site and TV stations.
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 05:08 PM
Random Prediction: Duke will take in at least one regular transfer, maybe two, this offseason.
Duke may also take in a grad transfer depending on how things shake out with all the player decisions, but I think Duke will take in at least one regular transfer (where he will have to sit out a year) to help mitigate the impact of an extremely weak 2018 high school recruiting class. This will also serve to add talented practice depth for the 2017-18 season.
This would be great news for the superstitious.
During Seth Curry's sit-out year (2010) and Sean Obi's sit-out year (2015), Duke won the national championship.
SkyBrickey
03-20-2017, 05:09 PM
I agree with this 100%. And I'd probably add Carter to that mix as a guy who isn't really a floor spacer on offense or a mobile perimeter defender. The scouting reports on him seem a bit like Okafor's scouting reports, with maybe a bit better midrange game.
You all are going to be surprised at Carter's ability to handle the ball, step out and hit jumpers, and guard the 4. Coach K might surround him at the 5 with 4 perimeter players, especially if we land Knox, but he is very capable of playing the 4 with Bolden or Jeter at the 5. Jahlil had an A+ back-to-the-basket offensive game which Wendell does not yet have (more like a B+), but I expect Wendell to a stronger rebounder, defender and midrange scorer next year than Jah.
There's not a perfect Duke big man comparison to Wendell, but you'll see he may play a little closer to Laettner than Okafor...
Note: there is only one Christian Laettner and I would never set the bar there for any recruit coming in, but he's got some Laettner type skills in his game. If he does end up playing the 5, I fully expect him at the 4 in the NBA.
mattman91
03-20-2017, 05:11 PM
Random Prediction: Duke will take in at least one regular transfer, maybe two, this offseason.
Duke may also take in a grad transfer depending on how things shake out with all the player decisions, but I think Duke will take in at least one regular transfer (where he will have to sit out a year) to help mitigate the impact of an extremely weak 2018 high school recruiting class. This will also serve to add talented practice depth for the 2017-18 season.
Do we have a list of available grad transfers? Would be interesting to browse.
Do we have a list of available grad transfers? Would be interesting to browse.
I'll take one from Column A, one from Column B, with garlic sauce and broccoli.
If both leave, 5.5 of our 6.5 rotation is gone.
As per TM's post, Frank will be a guaranteed captain.
After Kennard's poor tournament, I think he's staying. Unfortunately, NBA scouts put so much equity into the tournament. And Kennard had as bad a tournament as anyone.
And I think Grayson's gone. Cus no one deserves another year of bashing. If Grayson stays, he needs to sign a deal with ESPN that pays him $10M post-graduation for all the traffic Grayson has brought to their site and TV stations.
Just Luke returning would be HUGE. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in saying he'd be a top 3 candidate for national player of the year, maybe even the favorite.
I'm not sure I'm as sanguine as you are about him returning, but the difference he would make for next year's team goes far beyond what he provides on the court, which is already substantial.
DukieTiger
03-20-2017, 05:17 PM
Random Prediction: Duke will take in at least one regular transfer, maybe two, this offseason.
Duke may also take in a grad transfer depending on how things shake out with all the player decisions, but I think Duke will take in at least one regular transfer (where he will have to sit out a year) to help mitigate the impact of an extremely weak 2018 high school recruiting class. This will also serve to add talented practice depth for the 2017-18 season.
This would be great news for the superstitious.
During Seth Curry's sit-out year (2010) and Sean Obi's sit-out year (2015), Duke won the national championship.
Also Dahntay Jones' (2001).
So now we know where we went wrong this year- missed that transfer sitting at the end of the bench in street clothes! ;)
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-20-2017, 05:18 PM
Just Luke returning would be HUGE. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in saying he'd be a top 3 candidate for national player of the year, maybe even the favorite.
Much as Grayson was this year.
geraldsneighbor
03-20-2017, 05:19 PM
Since Duke will have some roster openings I noticed New Mexico G Elijah Brown announced he will graduate and transfer to play next season elsewhere. His father is Mike Brown, so there is a USA Basketball connection. He averaged about 20 ppg the last 2 years for UNM. Not sure if it'd be a fit but this team might need bodies. Throw it in the maybe pile?
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 05:19 PM
Just Luke returning would be HUGE. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in saying he'd be a top 3 candidate for national player of the year, maybe even the favorite.
I'm not sure I'm as sanguine as you are about him returning, but the difference he would make for next year's team goes far beyond what he provides on the court, which is already substantial.
You're not. Kennard has basically the exact same profile as Allen: insanely good sophomore season, 20 point scorer, arguably best returning player coming back (assuming he does). Let's just hope injuries/controversy doesn't affect Kennard next year.
Billy Dat
03-20-2017, 05:22 PM
I think we'll have a ton of guys take advantage of the new-ish process and officially test the waters, go to the combine, get feedback, and then make a decision. They can go to the combine and attend one team workout, but have until 10 days after the combine to say "in or out". Last year, that deadline was 5/25.
ncexnyc
03-20-2017, 05:24 PM
It hasn't even been 24 hours since the loss and we have a thread like this up already.:rolleyes:
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 05:25 PM
It hasn't even been 24 hours since the loss and we have a thread like this up already.:rolleyes:
Should we just mourn the loss? Please tell us what we should be talking about
BandAlum83
03-20-2017, 05:27 PM
You can take that statement two ways.
1) He means that Duke needs to be deeper, in that players are good enough to start, but amenable to coming off the bench.
2) He means that *he* needs to play more guys more minutes and adjust *his* coaching philosophy.
I'm going to guess he meant #1.
He followed it with "They played 8 or 9, so I'm thinking he'd like to do the same, but he just didn't feel he had a "ready" 8th and 9th option.
We will also know by this time next month if we will enjoy the services of Trevon Duval next year. Apart from retaining Luke or Grayson, getting Duval is the next most important piece to our title hopes. Most people know he is the top ranked point guard prospect next year, but some people might not know that he's a Derrick Rose level athlete, with a man's body.
He's 6'3", 190 pounds, has a 6'8" wingspan, has very tight handles, and throws down insane dunks with regularity. He's more of a scorer than a distributor, but he is a VERY good finisher at the rim and plays through contact. After losing to South Carolina in a game where the Gamecocks' physicality destroyed us, having Carter on board and getting Duval will be key in a push to get tougher. Those 2 guys have grown men muscles.
weezie
03-20-2017, 05:34 PM
Holy moly, six pages since 9:30am and this isn't after a win over the holes?!
Some frustrated or worried fans here!
Volunteer Duke
03-20-2017, 05:34 PM
I think there is going to be more attrition than this thread is anticipating. I wouldn't be shocked to see only 4 or 5 scholarship guys RETURN.
Add Wendell Carter, Gary Trent Jr., and Alex O'Connell, and that's 7 players in a worst case scenario, 3 of whom played very sparingly this year, and 3 of whom are freshmen.
Trevon Duval, Kevin Knox, and Mohamed Bamba (who wasn't mentioned in the OP but should be) makes 10 in a worst case scenario.
We'd still be short 3 scholarship players.
So, I'm expecting (really hoping for) commitments from the Big 3 of Duval, Knox, and Bamba and some transfers, preferably a bruiser or two down low.
This scenario would give us 5 5-star freshmen. Would be pretty cool.
holy moly, six pages since 9:30am and this isn't after a win over the holes?!
Some frustrated or worried fans here!
Next play.
devildeac
03-20-2017, 05:35 PM
Should we just mourn the loss? Please tell us what we should be talking about
I'm a bit old for this suggestion but would Kate Upton work for a conversation starter?
:rolleyes:
weezie
03-20-2017, 05:37 PM
I'm a bit old for this suggestion but would Kate Upton work for a conversation starter?
:rolleyes:
Why, is she available for transfer? :p
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 05:37 PM
We will also know by this time next month if we will enjoy the services of Trevon Duval next year. Apart from retaining Luke or Grayson, getting Duval is the next most important piece to our title hopes. Most people know he is the top ranked point guard prospect next year, but some people might not know that he's a Derrick Rose level athlete, with a man's body.
He's 6'3", 190 pounds, has a 6'8" wingspan, has very tight handles, and throws down insane dunks with regularity. He's more of a scorer than a distributor, but he is a VERY good finisher at the rim and plays through contact. After losing to South Carolina in a game where the Gamecocks' physicality destroyed us, having Carter on board and getting Duval will be key in a push to get tougher. Those 2 guys have grown men muscles.
No offense intended to Luke and Grayson, whom I love, but getting Duval is the most important thing we can accomplish this offseason.
Point guard is just the most important position in basketball, followed by center, followed by a stretch 4.
Volunteer Duke
03-20-2017, 05:39 PM
No offense intended to Luke and Grayson, whom I love, but getting Duval is the most important thing we can accomplish this offseason.
Point guard is just the most important position in basketball, followed by center, followed by a stretch 4.
Getting Bamba is arguably just as important, IMO. He will be the best rim protector in college basketball from day 1 and fits our scheme (and school) perfectly.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 05:40 PM
I'm a bit old for this suggestion but would Kate Upton work for a conversation starter?
:rolleyes:
I don't really want her on the team due to her lack of fundamentals. She's combined the chest pass and the bounce pass to create the bouncy chest.
devildeac
03-20-2017, 05:41 PM
Why, is she available for transfer? :p
I don't know. She stopped calling me. FDD might know...
BandAlum83
03-20-2017, 05:41 PM
I'm a bit old for this suggestion but would Kate Upton work for a conversation starter?
:rolleyes:
Does she have eligibity remaining for the cheer leading squad or dance team? If so, sign her up!
Otherwise, we need tho table the discussion until after the Women's team season is completed. :)
No offense intended to Luke and Grayson, whom I love, but getting Duval is the most important thing we can accomplish this offseason.
Point guard is just the most important position in basketball, followed by center, followed by a stretch 4.
I have to respectfully disagree. I would never prefer a freshman, point guard or not, over a junior or senior who might be good enough to win NPOY. Unless of course, the freshman is good enough to win NPOY . . . aka only Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant level guys. Thankfully, these things are not mutually exclusive.
ncexnyc
03-20-2017, 05:42 PM
Should we just mourn the loss? Please tell us what we should be talking about
Actually since you've asked, how about we wait to see how things pan out with the players currently on our team.
I'd also like for us not to get to excited about recruits who haven't played a minute for Duke yet. We all saw how that panned out this past season.
And finally I'd like to see a more open competition for playing minutes going forward. It seemed like some players had the minutes given to them and that their playing time was theirs to lose rather than the other way around.
flyingdutchdevil
03-20-2017, 05:42 PM
Getting Bamba is arguably just as important, IMO. He will be the best rim protector in college basketball from day 1 and fits our scheme (and school) perfectly.
Like Bolden!
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 05:45 PM
Getting Bamba is arguably just as important, IMO. He will be the best rim protector in college basketball from day 1 and fits our scheme (and school) perfectly.
We already have Wendell Carter, though.
In terms of marginal benefit analysis, it's Duval, then Kevin Knox, then a huge gap to third place.
Volunteer Duke
03-20-2017, 05:49 PM
We already have Wendell Carter, though.
In terms of marginal benefit analysis, it's Duval, then Kevin Knox, then a huge gap to third place.
I politely disagree. From what I've seen on videos and read in scouting reports, Bamba is better than Knox. Wendell, while good, is only one guy and he's a 4. Plus, Knox is not Tatum. He's good but not at that level just yet.
I don't want Wendell playing the 5 and Knox or Javin playing the 4. That would not be good for us.
We could play 3 guards with Carter at the 4 and Bamba at the 5 and that would work well.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-20-2017, 05:51 PM
Like Bolden!
I was gonna say that, but I seem to get in trouble every time I do. So, sporks my brother.
And yes, perhaps one of the lessons this season is to pump the brakes on declaring our recruits to be the "next" whatever. Let's get a few weeks into the season and see what they look like.
We already have Wendell Carter, though.
In terms of marginal benefit analysis, it's Duval, then Kevin Knox, then a huge gap to third place.
IMHO, this the wishlist, in order of importance for title hopes:
1. Jayson Tatum (might as well throw it in here, no matter how improbable)
2. One of Luke or Grayson
3. Duval
4. The other of Luke or Grayson
5. Giles
6. Knox
7. Bolden
8. Bamba
IMO, Duval is not as important as keeping one of our top wing scorers. Duval is a nice point guard, but he will need someone to pass it to, and Grayson/Luke are the best shooters/scorers we could potentially have next year, not to mention they would be the only upperclassmen with significant experience. Losing all 3 of Jayson, Grayson, and Luke would really hurt.
mattman91
03-20-2017, 06:19 PM
Actually since you've asked, how about we wait to see how things pan out with the players currently on our team.
I'd also like for us not to get to excited about recruits who haven't played a minute for Duke yet. We all saw how that panned out this past season.
And finally I'd like to see a more open competition for playing minutes going forward. It seemed like some players had the minutes given to them and that their playing time was theirs to lose rather than the other way around.
Not trying to sound like an arse, but isn't that what DBR is for? Discussing Duke Basketball? If you don't want to discuss this, participate in a different thread.
Off Topic is especially fun in the off-season!
Seriously though, not trying to sound rude. I'm not that guy.
MChambers
03-20-2017, 06:21 PM
I'm a bit old for this suggestion but would Kate Upton work for a conversation starter?
:rolleyes:
I hear she is committed to the (Detroit) Tigers.
I politely disagree. From what I've seen on videos and read in scouting reports, Bamba is better than Knox. Wendell, while good, is only one guy and he's a 4. Plus, Knox is not Tatum. He's good but not at that level just yet.
I don't want Wendell playing the 5 and Knox or Javin playing the 4. That would not be good for us.
We could play 3 guards with Carter at the 4 and Bamba at the 5 and that would work well.
Nothing I have seen suggests that Carter is a college 4. He will likely be sn NBA 4, but I really don't think his natural position in high school or college is the 4. And I will be fairly surprised if he sees major minutes at the 4 next year.
rthomas
03-20-2017, 06:29 PM
The hell with only one year. This is going to be an interesting 4 years.
We will also know by this time next month if we will enjoy the services of Trevon Duval next year. Apart from retaining Luke or Grayson, getting Duval is the next most important piece to our title hopes. Most people know he is the top ranked point guard prospect next year, but some people might not know that he's a Derrick Rose level athlete, with a man's body.
He's 6'3", 190 pounds, has a 6'8" wingspan, has very tight handles, and throws down insane dunks with regularity. He's more of a scorer than a distributor, but he is a VERY good finisher at the rim and plays through contact. After losing to South Carolina in a game where the Gamecocks' physicality destroyed us, having Carter on board and getting Duval will be key in a push to get tougher. Those 2 guys have grown men muscles.
But can they play defense?
Pghdukie
03-20-2017, 06:48 PM
Where does Frank fit in ?
Nugget
03-20-2017, 07:01 PM
It is very tough to get on the court for K these days if you are a big who can't shoot a 3 or guard the perimeter. In most cases, we only play one guy like that at a time, and he is surrounded by 4 guys that can shoot and drive. This year, it was Amile. Harry had a rep as a shooter, but we saw only the most fleeting glimpses. As such, assuming Harry leaves, when you look at Bolden/Jeter/Javin/Vrank and then with us recruiting Bamba...if we have all of them...one will start, one will come off the bench...and the other 3 won't play at all...if you agree with that assessment and do the math, it's hard to picture everyone sticking around.
I think this is right. Given how Coach K consistently plays, I can't imagine coming here if I'm Bamba. Or, having both Chase and Bolden on the roster next year (unless Chase simply decides that the Duke degree is the most important thing to him).
Bolden's year was incredibly frustrating for all involved. Hopefully, Coach K and he can come to a reasonable understanding for how things will improve next year. But, a transfer makes little sense for him nor would going pro this year, when he would likely fall well into the 2nd round.
Ultimately, I agree with others who think we well eventually lose (in addition to Amile and Matt) Tatum, Giles, Kennard (I agree with whoever made the point upthread that his defensive liabilities will ultimately result in his stock "falling" from the 15-20 range he's currently projected by NBA Draft.net and NBA Express, but he'll still be a first rounder) and for sure either Bolden or Chase to transfer (hopefully, not both). The wildcard here is Grayson. After the nightmare of this year, would he want to stomach another season under the microscope? On the other hand, his stock has fallen significantly and a better (healthier) year next season might help him. And, maybe the vitriol will have ameliorated at least somewhat if he doesn't have further incidents next year?
Nugget
03-20-2017, 07:18 PM
I think there's a pretty big difference between 7 and 8. 8 doesn't sound like that much of an improvement, but it is a lot better than 7, especially in high foul volume games like last night. We had 7 this year. We legitimately played 8 in 2015. It was all we had, but we played all 8 of those guys late in the season, and it turns out that was all we needed.
You can say I'm cherry picking stats for convenience, but I think it's pretty hard to win a national title with 7. Any time there's foul trouble, you're in a pretty bad situation with only 7.
Very, very few teams play more than 8 guys meaningful minutes. Our issue is getting to 8 rather than really being at 6.5.
It's very odd for Coach K to speak about this as if he had no control over the team "becoming deeper."
I realize it's all about health/practice performance, yada yada. And, I could see (as everyone else could) that over the last 10 games of the year it was a trainwreck pretty much whenever Bolden was on the court. But, given how well Bolden played against Miami, maybe Coach K should have rolled the dice and let Bolden try to "play through" the difficulties a little bit -- rather than yanking him after every bad stretch and adhering pretty slavishly down the stretch (other than the UNC game in Brooklyn) to a rotation of playing Harry a 5-6 minutes in the 1st half and then going pretty much the entire 2nd half with only Tatum and Amile up front.
Again, I get that most "development" happens in practice. But, some of it has to also happen via game minutes (with the side benefit that Ol Roy has experienced that guys who get at least some meaningful PT in games seem less likely to transfer out).
Where does Frank fit in ?
I suspect that Jackson will fill the Grayson Allen role. Probably somewhere between 2016 Allen and 2017 Allen.
mr. synellinden
03-20-2017, 07:35 PM
IMHO, this the wishlist, in order of importance for title hopes:
1. Jayson Tatum (might as well throw it in here, no matter how improbable)
2. One of Luke or Grayson
3. Duval
4. The other of Luke or Grayson
5. Giles
6. Knox
7. Bolden
8. Bamba
IMO, Duval is not as important as keeping one of our top wing scorers. Duval is a nice point guard, but he will need someone to pass it to, and Grayson/Luke are the best shooters/scorers we could potentially have next year, not to mention they would be the only upperclassmen with significant experience. Losing all 3 of Jayson, Grayson, and Luke would really hurt.
You're missing someone. I don't know if we can just assume that Jackson will be back.
proelitedota
03-20-2017, 07:37 PM
You're missing someone. I don't know if we can just assume that Jackson will be back.
Jackson already said he'll be back, at least on Twitter.
LasVegas
03-20-2017, 07:39 PM
You know what? It will all work out. The 2010 season taught me that one.
ncexnyc
03-20-2017, 08:03 PM
Not trying to sound like an arse, but isn't that what DBR is for? Discussing Duke Basketball? If you don't want to discuss this, participate in a different thread.
Off Topic is especially fun in the off-season!
Seriously though, not trying to sound rude. I'm not that guy.
True, however how can I expect a player to buy into the Duke program, if we as fans discard the team as soon as the final horn on a season has sounded.
pfrduke
03-20-2017, 08:05 PM
Point guard is just the most important position in basketball, followed by center, followed by a stretch 4.
This is somewhat a separate discussion, but this prompted me to recall again your post yesterday on the topic:
If I were going to criticize recruiting, it would be not getting enough point guards.
Putting on my spoiled hat for a second. I'm a fan of supposedly one of the top two recruiting programs in the country, and yet I feel like I hardly ever get to root for an excellent point guard.
and caused me to wonder what the heck happened to our point guard recruiting. With two notable exceptions (one of whom only played 11 games, still a bitter memory), we haven't recruited a real top flight point guard since Chris Duhon. Since Duhon graduated, we may have had collectively more effective point guard play from players recruited as wings/2 guards who ended up being thrust into the point guard role than from players recruited as point guards. What gives? There have been some misses - Paulus, most notably, but Tyler Thornton, for whom I'll always have a soft spot, was never an effective orchestrator of the offense; ditto Sean Dockery - but it also just seems like we haven't had a lot of guys to play that role. I don't follow recruiting super closely, but other than Kenny Boynton, I also don't recall us missing on highly sought after point guard targets, either, so I assume this is reflective of intentional recruiting efforts, but I can't for the life of me figure out why we don't start with point guard as the top priority every year (or, at least, every year when we don't already know that we have a reliable answer in place).
Saratoga2
03-20-2017, 08:52 PM
One effective approach is to have two guards who can lead as PG's. The last time we had that was Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook. If we had Trevon Duval and Frank Jackson together, we would come close to recreating a very effective duo. The last time UCONN won the championship, they also had two effective PGs. One usually takes a back seat and fills the SG role, but the great ball handling makes the team very hard to guard.
mr. synellinden
03-20-2017, 09:06 PM
Jackson already said he'll be back, at least on Twitter.
He did? Missed that. It's great news if so. He can be a lottery pick next year. A Jackson and Trent backcourt would be young but two likely top 15 picks isn't a bad start.
richardjackson199
03-20-2017, 09:24 PM
No offense intended to Luke and Grayson, whom I love, but getting Duval is the most important thing we can accomplish this offseason.
Point guard is just the most important position in basketball, followed by center, followed by a stretch 4.
Yep - that is why it worries me some that most recent pick on 247 CB was Dylan Prezkop picking Duval for Kansas. Prezkop is pretty good. Pick was 3/13/17. We need to get Duval
SkyBrickey
03-20-2017, 09:34 PM
Nothing I have seen suggests that Carter is a college 4. He will likely be sn NBA 4, but I really don't think his natural position in high school or college is the 4. And I will be fairly surprised if he sees major minutes at the 4 next year.
Maybe I just need time to recover from watching a season of us not protecting the rim, not getting our share of easy inside buckets, and seeing Amile and Jayson getting pummeled by much bigger opposing lineups, but I am looking forward to a lineup with Carter at the 4 and Bolden/Jeter at the 5. I want to own the boards. And I want to alter every shot in the lane.
I've watched a lot of Wendell Carter's games over the past 3 years. He handles the ball well and has a really nice midrange game - beautiful soft jumpshot (though he's got some work to do to consistently knock down 3s). And he's every bit as capable as Isaiah Hicks of chasing ACC 4s around the court.
A lineup of Duval, Jackson, Allen/Kennard, Carter and Bolden could be outstanding. That's 1 ACC preseason player of the year plus 2 top 5 recruits and 2 top 15 recruits. And Trent Jr, Javin, and Jeter/Vrank getting rotation minutes off the bench. I would go to battle for a national title with those 8.
So give me: 1) Duval and 2) Allen or Kennard. Anything else is gravy.
Utley
03-20-2017, 09:37 PM
Jackson already said he'll be back, at least on Twitter.
Do you have a link. I am far from a Twitter expert but just checked and didn't see it. I love his moxie - I hope he can infect next years team.
Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 10:23 PM
This is somewhat a separate discussion, but this prompted me to recall again your post yesterday on the topic:
and caused me to wonder what the heck happened to our point guard recruiting. With two notable exceptions (one of whom only played 11 games, still a bitter memory), we haven't recruited a real top flight point guard since Chris Duhon. Since Duhon graduated, we may have had collectively more effective point guard play from players recruited as wings/2 guards who ended up being thrust into the point guard role than from players recruited as point guards. What gives? There have been some misses - Paulus, most notably, but Tyler Thornton, for whom I'll always have a soft spot, was never an effective orchestrator of the offense; ditto Sean Dockery - but it also just seems like we haven't had a lot of guys to play that role. I don't follow recruiting super closely, but other than Kenny Boynton, I also don't recall us missing on highly sought after point guard targets, either, so I assume this is reflective of intentional recruiting efforts, but I can't for the life of me figure out why we don't start with point guard as the top priority every year (or, at least, every year when we don't already know that we have a reliable answer in place).
Yeah, it's weird. It's one of those slow-boil-the-frog things where maybe each individual move or non-move makes sense in a particular year or within a limited context, but then when you step back and take a broad look at things, somehow 13 years have passed with Duke only receiving a total of 1.3 seasons of top flight PG play from a recruited PG. That's 10% of the total time.
I do think they're trying to remedy this in a big way. From what I understand, they're recruiting Duval for next season and TWO point guards in the 2018 class. Let's hope they land them all.
Yep - that is why it worries me some that most recent pick on 247 CB was Dylan Prezkop picking Duval for Kansas. Prezkop is pretty good. Pick was 3/13/17. We need to get Duval
I'll start sweating when Slater changes his pick.
Nugget
03-20-2017, 10:26 PM
This is somewhat a separate discussion, but this prompted me to recall again your post yesterday on the topic:
and caused me to wonder what the heck happened to our point guard recruiting. With two notable exceptions (one of whom only played 11 games, still a bitter memory), we haven't recruited a real top flight point guard since Chris Duhon. Since Duhon graduated, we may have had collectively more effective point guard play from players recruited as wings/2 guards who ended up being thrust into the point guard role than from players recruited as point guards. What gives? There have been some misses - Paulus, most notably, but Tyler Thornton, for whom I'll always have a soft spot, was never an effective orchestrator of the offense; ditto Sean Dockery - but it also just seems like we haven't had a lot of guys to play that role. I don't follow recruiting super closely, but other than Kenny Boynton, I also don't recall us missing on highly sought after point guard targets, either, so I assume this is reflective of intentional recruiting efforts, but I can't for the life of me figure out why we don't start with point guard as the top priority every year (or, at least, every year when we don't already know that we have a reliable answer in place).
I think our PG recruiting has been pretty good "since Chris Duhon" in light of who else was out there in a given year (and could reasonably be recruited by Duke). We've just had a few instances of bad luck with injuries and early entries. I don't see a whole lot of top 50 RSCI PG recruits we could/should have landed instead of the players we got.
Starting from the class of 2002 (the class of 2001 saw Duhon starting as a freshman, so we were not likely to land a top flight PG):
we landed: Sean Dockery, our first choice. Other RSCI top 50 PGs were: Ray Felton, Daniel Horton, Anthony Roberson, Dee Brown, John Gilchrist, Jarrett Jack and Deron Williams. Of those, I only recall Duke having much interest in Roberson. Hard to say he would have been a better choice than Dockery.
2003: no PG recruit (not a surprise with Duhon a rising Sr. and Dockery just ahead). Top 50 PGs in the class were: Chris Paul, Mustafa Shakur and Aaron Brooks, none of whom had any interest.
2004: Shaun Livingston (our 1st choice, went pro). Top 50 PGs: Sebastian Telfair, Darius Washington, Daniel Gibson, Jordan Farmarr (Rajon Rondo just outside). None of those were options since we'd signed Livingston.
2005: Greg Paulus (our 1st choice). Top 50 PGs: Mario Chalmers, Bobby Frasor (Darren Collison was outside top 50).
2006: no PG, but did sign Scheyer. Top 50 PGs: Ty Lawson, Mike Conley, Javaris Crittenton, Sherron Collins, D.J. Augustin, Scottie Reynolds. Again, hard to see how we could have gotten any of those guys with Paulus projected to be a 4 year starter in front of them. Don't recall any of them having much interest in Duke - maybe Conley a little - but, he was going to go with Oden.
2007: Nolan Smith. Top 50 PGs: OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Nick Calathes, Johnny Flynn, Corey Fisher, Chris Wright, Jai Lucas. Jeff Teague outside top 50. Obviously Mayo and Rose weren't options. I seem to recall we might have had some interest in Bayless or Chris Wright. But, hard to see how we would have been better off getting Wright instead of Nolan.
2008: Elliot Williams (though not really recruited as a PG). Top 50 PGs: Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans weren't options. Kemba Walker, Larry Drew, Malcolm Lee and Jerime Anderson. I think we can agree that converting Elliot Williams was better than having signed, for instance, Larry Drew.
2009: No PG recruit. Top 50 PGs: John Wall, Kenny Boynton, Abdul Gaddy, Maalik Wayns, Elijah Johnson, Peyton Siva, Mfon Udofia, Eric Bledsoe. Obviously, Boynton was a miss here. Wall I think put up a show of considering Duke, but it was phony. I seem to recall some fleeting interest in Udofia, though he ultimately did little at Ga Tech.
2010: Kyrie (and Tyler Thornton). No possible complaints.
2011: Quinn Cook (and ball-dominant Austin Rivers coming in). Top 50 PGs: Marquis Teague, Myck Kabongo, Tony Wroten, BJ Young, Jahii Carson, (Trey Burke outside top 50). Hard to see any complaint about this class.
2012: No PG recruit. Top 50 PGs: Rodney Purvis, Kris Dunn, Marcus Paige, Yogi Ferrell, Tyler Lewis, Gabe York. Perhaps it would have been nice to land Purvis, who I recall had some rumored interest in Duke. But, not a catastrophe.
2013: No PG recruit. Top 50 PGs: Harrison Twins, Kasey Hill, Tyler Ennis, Cat Barber, Rysheed Jordan, Nigel Williams-Goss, Demetrius Jackson , Conner Frankamp, Derrick Walton, Roddy Peters, and Zach LaVine. Rumor was Duke committed to Tyus Jones not to recruit a PG ahead of him. While some of these guys may have been interested in Duke if we had pursued them, hard to fault a strategy of picking a planned 3 years of Tyus over any of them.
2014: Tyus Jones. Top 50 PGs: Joel Berry, Tyler Ulis, JaQuan Lyle, Melo Trimble. No brainer. Just our bad luck that the Heels are going to get 3-4 years of Berry and we got 1 of Tyus.
2015: Derryck Thornton. Top 50 PGs: Isaiah Briscoe, Jalen Brunson, Jalen Adams, Justin Simon, Tyler Dorsey, Jawun Evans. Again, without hindsight, hard to fault that recruiting decision. And, in any event, don't recall Brunson, Dorsey or Evans having any interest in Duke.
So, other than not getting Boynton, and forgoing a class of 2013 recruit out of loyalty to Tyus, what's to criticize about our last 15 years of PG recruiting - what "top flight" PGs were available but we chose not to get?
If the most one could argue is maybe we should have gone harder after Rodney Purvis or tried for Mario Chalmers and Anthony Roberson instead of Paulus and Dockery, that's a pretty slim beef (and, honestly, very unfair Monday-Morning Quarterbacking given the rankings of Paulus and Dockery at the time).
Yeah, it's weird. It's one of those slow-boil-the-frog things where maybe each individual move or non-move makes sense in a particular year or within a limited context, but then when you step back and take a broad look at things, somehow 13 years have passed with Duke only receiving a total of 1.3 seasons of top flight PG play from a recruited PG. That's 10% of the total time.
I do think they're trying to remedy this in a big way. From what I understand, they're recruiting Duval for next season and TWO point guards in the 2018 class. Let's hope they land them all.
Well, it isn't necessarily due to a lack of trying. We did recruit some others along the way: Livingston, Dockery, Paulus, Cook, and Thornton. It is just that none quite panned out at PG. Livingston never made it to Duke. Dockery turned out to be a lead guard that couldn't adjust his game to a distributor. Paulus couldn't play point on either end at the major college level and got moved off ball and eventually to the bench. Cook had some spectacular moments in 2013, struggled in 2014, and then moved to SG in 2015. And Thornton decided not to stick around after his freshman year. So I don't think it has been due to lack of interest/effort. We just haven't had consistently good fortune in our recruiting evaluations, and had some surprises the last couple of years.
jacone21
03-20-2017, 11:32 PM
Will... not... get... sucked... in... again.
Me neither!
7278
Spanarkel
03-21-2017, 08:22 AM
Well, it isn't necessarily due to a lack of trying. We did recruit some others along the way: Livingston, Dockery, Paulus, Cook, and Thornton. It is just that none quite panned out at PG. Livingston never made it to Duke. Dockery turned out to be a lead guard that couldn't adjust his game to a distributor. Paulus couldn't play point on either end at the major college level and got moved off ball and eventually to the bench. Cook had some spectacular moments in 2013, struggled in 2014, and then moved to SG in 2015. And Thornton decided not to stick around after his freshman year. So I don't think it has been due to lack of interest/effort. We just haven't had consistently good fortune in our recruiting evaluations, and had some surprises the last couple of years.
Just checking, but you are using lead guard as a synonym for point guard? After 40+ years of just casually watching hoops, I now really want to understand it better. Thanks!
"Basketball Positions"
Basketball QuicknessPosition #1) Point Guard
The point guard (lead guard) often acts like a football quarterback, calling plays and directing the offense.
It’s the point guard’s job to bring the ball up the court and set up the plays.
Therefore, this player is usually a team’s best dribbler and passer. This position is very, very important to a team’s success. Without a good point guard who plays mistake-free ball, very few teams will win a championship.
(Sorry I couldn't reproduce the reference, just a generic Google on "lead guard").
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-21-2017, 08:27 AM
Jackson already said he'll be back, at least on Twitter.
Looks to me like Frank hasn't Tweeted since December.
budwom
03-21-2017, 08:37 AM
IMHO, this the wishlist, in order of importance for title hopes:
1. Jayson Tatum (might as well throw it in here, no matter how improbable)
2. One of Luke or Grayson
3. Duval
4. The other of Luke or Grayson
5. Giles
6. Knox
7. Bolden
8. Bamba
IMO, Duval is not as important as keeping one of our top wing scorers. Duval is a nice point guard, but he will need someone to pass it to, and Grayson/Luke are the best shooters/scorers we could potentially have next year, not to mention they would be the only upperclassmen with significant experience. Losing all 3 of Jayson, Grayson, and Luke would really hurt.
I respectfully disagree, kaze. Yes I definitely want to see Kennard return, but trying to be as objective as I can be, he is a HORRIBLE defender. I've focused on him the past few weeks as teams execute layup lines against us, and he just can't keep anyone in front of him. On the other hand, a backcourt of Jackson and Duval could finally pressure the ball and return us to a traditionally more effective defense. So I'm greedy and want both Duval and Kennard (or Allen).
I'd also love to see either Bamba or Bolden, but I expect neither, hope I get surprised.
lotusland
03-21-2017, 08:51 AM
The two most predominate sentiments I'm seeing is (1) we need more experience (2) we must get certain shiny untested recruits. Collectively DBR suffers from cognitive dissonance. Players who don't see themselves in the rotation by their junior year are often transfer for more PT. Also freshmen rarely play good defense. Give me Allen, Jackson and Kennard over Duvall any day. We don't need Bamba under any circumstances. Carter is our 5 and Duke is not going to play 2 freshman true bigs together very much at all. If Knox comes he may be our starting 4 ala Hood, Winslow, Ingram, Tatum. But we need a vet in that rotation. If that is a 10-15 mpg role give me Jeter, Bolden, Vrank, DeLaurier and White competing for those minutes. All of those guys are capable of being big contributors as upper class men IF they get some experience and see enough opportunity ahead to stick around. 2015 was an outlier imo. 2 OADs per year is better than 3 most of the time and, of course, Tyus and Winslow weren't thought to be OAD. My hope is that Jeter, Vrank, DeLaurier and White are competing for the 7-8-9nth spots in the rotation along side GA, Kennard, Jackson, Carter, Knox and Bolden. We probably won't keep all of GA, Kennard and Jackson so Trent can slide in the open spot. With a good summer from the vets Duke is absolutely stacked next year.
sagegrouse
03-21-2017, 09:02 AM
Jackson already said he'll be back, at least on Twitter.
Do you have a link. I am far from a Twitter expert but just checked and didn't see it. I love his moxie - I hope he can infect next years team.
Not, apparently, on Frank Kackson's verified Twitter account, @FWJackson15. No tweets this calendar year.
WVDUKEFAN
03-21-2017, 09:14 AM
The two most predominate sentiments I'm seeing is (1) we need more experience (2) we must get certain shiny untested recruits. Collectively DBR suffers from cognitive dissonance. Players who don't see themselves in the rotation by their junior year are often transfer for more PT. Also freshmen rarely play good defense. Give me Allen, Jackson and Kennard over Duvall any day. We don't need Bamba under any circumstances. Carter is our 5 and Duke is not going to play 2 freshman true bigs together very much at all. If Knox comes he may be our starting 4 ala Hood, Winslow, Ingram, Tatum. But we need a vet in that rotation. If that is a 10-15 mpg role give me Jeter, Bolden, Vrank, DeLaurier and White competing for those minutes. All of those guys are capable of being big contributors as upper class men IF they get some experience and see enough opportunity ahead to stick around. 2015 was an outlier imo. 2 OADs per year is better than 3 most of the time and, of course, Tyus and Winslow weren't thought to be OAD. My hope is that Jeter, Vrank, DeLaurier and White are competing for the 7-8-9nth spots in the rotation along side GA, Kennard, Jackson, Carter, Knox and Bolden. We probably won't keep all of GA, Kennard and Jackson so Trent can slide in the open spot. With a good summer from the vets Duke is absolutely stacked next year.
I think we're stacked as well, but I still think we need a point guard to run the show.
budwom
03-21-2017, 09:17 AM
I think we're stacked as well, but I still think we need a point guard to run the show.
Plus...we're highly unlikely to have Allen and Kennard, probably unlikely to have either....so it's a false choice (Duval vs Allen and Kennard).
If we aspire to improve our defense, Duval is ultra desirable.
duke09hms
03-21-2017, 09:20 AM
Plus...we're highly unlikely to have Allen and Kennard, probably unlikely to have either...so it's a false choice (Duval vs Allen and Kennard).
If we aspire to improve our defense, Duval is ultra desirable.
Is Duval known for his defense?
Saratoga2
03-21-2017, 09:31 AM
Maybe I just need time to recover from watching a season of us not protecting the rim, not getting our share of easy inside buckets, and seeing Amile and Jayson getting pummeled by much bigger opposing lineups, but I am looking forward to a lineup with Carter at the 4 and Bolden/Jeter at the 5. I want to own the boards. And I want to alter every shot in the lane.
I've watched a lot of Wendell Carter's games over the past 3 years. He handles the ball well and has a really nice midrange game - beautiful soft jumpshot (though he's got some work to do to consistently knock down 3s). And he's every bit as capable as Isaiah Hicks of chasing ACC 4s around the court.
A lineup of Duval, Jackson, Allen/Kennard, Carter and Bolden could be outstanding. That's 1 ACC preseason player of the year plus 2 top 5 recruits and 2 top 15 recruits. And Trent Jr, Javin, and Jeter/Vrank getting rotation minutes off the bench. I would go to battle for a national title with those 8.
So give me: 1) Duval and 2) Allen or Kennard. Anything else is gravy.
Duval and jackson are my hopefuls.
dukebluesincebirth
03-21-2017, 09:32 AM
Is Duval known for his defense?
I really don't know how you could tell anymore. High school basketball seems to be dominated by the AAU circuit which often look like glorified pick-up games with "coaches" and refs. I'm not sure how many HS coaches actually teach defensive positioning and technique, and require players to practice it. Duval is a 1 and done. Typically, I haven't seen those guys interested in playing too much D. They also have a very short time frame to learn in college. IMO, the best asset a high school guard can have to be "known" for defense is foot speed. At least then we know they have the physical tools to move their feet. Duval is definitely quick on his feet. But the other part of defense is desire/motivation. You never know about that part.
FadedTackyShirt
03-21-2017, 09:38 AM
I think we're stacked as well, but I still think we need a point guard to run the show.
We can quibble about the order, but all but one of K's best Duke teams had at least one PG:
'92-Hurley
2001-J Will, Duhon
'91-Hurley
2015-Tyus, Cook
'99-Avery
'86-Amaker
2010 is the anomaly.
Like Frank and Grayson, but neither are pure PGs and the team was hobbled without solid PG play.
Do you have a link. I am far from a Twitter expert but just checked and didn't see it. I love his moxie - I hope he can infect next years team.
Not, apparently, on Frank Kackson's verified Twitter account, @FWJackson15. No tweets this calendar year.
Not on Twitter, but on YouTube. wk2109 posted this in the "One and Done" thread:
One clue as to Frank's decision can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK_OPrSuQaM (at 1:50, Frank says he'll be wearing the Kyrie Duke special edition Nikes "next year").
Certainly not definitive, as guys have changed their minds before. But I'd take that as pretty strong evidence that he'll be returning.
IMO, the best asset a high school guard can have to be "known" for defense is foot speed. At least then we know they have the physical tools to move their feet.
Not just any foot speed, but lateral quickness. A person can be fast, but not quick. There's a difference. Kyrie Irving is fast, but he's not exactly known for his defense.
Certainly not definitive, as guys have changed their minds before. But I'd take that as pretty strong evidence that he'll be returning.
I think Frank returns, but he could wear those sneakers next year in the NBA or NBDL.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 09:58 AM
I think Frank returns, but he could wear those sneakers next year in the NBA or NBDL.
Yeah...I am not putting any equity into an off-handed comment on a video.
But I agree- Frank is coming back. He's likely a late first rounder, but he doesn't really fit the profile of an OAD (neither does Bolden, but I can easily see Bolden bolting).
Frank will be a second or third offensive option next year (depending on who comes back, of course). He needs work on his handle, his shot, his defense, and his distribution. But he's got great tools and is basically a more controlled Allen with half the intensity.
bluedev_92
03-21-2017, 10:00 AM
Put me in the camp that believes a point guard is very important to the overall effectiveness of our team. Many games we can get away with overwhelming the other team with our higher talent level. When it comes to teams that overplay and work on pressure defense (like a South Carolina, WV etc., we need a point guard that can handle that pressure and make the other team pay for that style by driving and dishing/scoring...
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 10:06 AM
Put me in the camp that believes a point guard is very important to the overall effectiveness of our team. Many games we can get away with overwhelming the other team with our higher talent level. When it comes to teams that overplay and work on pressure defense (like a South Carolina, WV etc., we need a point guard that can handle that pressure and make the other team pay for that style by driving and dishing/scoring...
Does anyone disagree with the bolded statement? No one is disagree that an elite PG is essential. There are disagreements about WHO is the most important player.
I'm in the camp who believes that Duval is the single-most important to our team next year. If we don't get him, I'd be shocked because that's two years in a row that the coaching staff has whiffed on a PG (and no. Frank Jackson is not a PG. If the coaching staff thinks he is, then I question their ability to judge the skills of a PG).
chadlee989
03-21-2017, 10:07 AM
Put me in the camp that believes a point guard is very important to the overall effectiveness of our team. Many games we can get away with overwhelming the other team with our higher talent level. When it comes to teams that overplay and work on pressure defense (like a South Carolina, WV etc., we need a point guard that can handle that pressure and make the other team pay for that style by driving and dishing/scoring...
In 2010 we blew WV out in the final four without a PG
duke09hms
03-21-2017, 10:08 AM
I really don't know how you could tell anymore. High school basketball seems to be dominated by the AAU circuit which often look like glorified pick-up games with "coaches" and refs. I'm not sure how many HS coaches actually teach defensive positioning and technique, and require players to practice it. Duval is a 1 and done. Typically, I haven't seen those guys interested in playing too much D. They also have a very short time frame to learn in college. IMO, the best asset a high school guard can have to be "known" for defense is foot speed. At least then we know they have the physical tools to move their feet. Duval is definitely quick on his feet. But the other part of defense is desire/motivation. You never know about that part.
Some OAD recruits do come in with well-earned defensive reps - Winslow, Noel, Giles, and Bolden. It's just our crap luck that the last 2 were sidelined by injury. It just seems UK gets more of the OADs that are good at defense.
I think what has actually contributed to our defensive downturn over the years is K prioritizing offense over defense. Remember the days where defense would get you on the court? Now we're playing Luke huge minutes, who is a defensive liability on the court, without any rim protectors (due to injury).
Our OADs have not been demonstrably worse on defense and often have been plus defenders (Tatum, Ingram, Winslow, even pre-injury Kyrie was a good defender in college).
OADs by defensive performance:
Positive: Tatum, Ingram, Winslow, Kyrie
Neutral: Okafor, T. Jones, Giles, Rodney, Rivers (I remember him as being decent on-ball with trouble fighting through screens)
Negative: Jabari
Matches
03-21-2017, 10:22 AM
I'd have trouble categorizing either Okafor or Rivers as neutral defenders. Both were pretty bad, although I think AR did make some strides as the season went along. Giles was pretty bad as well, particularly with positioning, though he was a decent rebounder and occasional shot blocker.
I'd have trouble categorizing either Okafor or Rivers as neutral defenders. Both were pretty bad, although I think AR did make some strides as the season went along. Giles was pretty bad as well, particularly with positioning, though he was a decent rebounder and occasional shot blocker.
Giles was more than a decent rebounder. His rebounding rate was very good, bordering on great. He was on par with Jefferson as a defensive rebounder and rebounded almost twice as well as Jefferson on the offensive glass. He was a poor positional defender though. But as far as rebounding goes, I don't think I'd peg him as just decent.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 10:30 AM
Some OAD recruits do come in with well-earned defensive reps - Winslow, Noel, Giles, and Bolden. It's just our crap luck that the last 2 were sidelined by injury. It just seems UK gets more of the OADs that are good at defense.
I think what has actually contributed to our defensive downturn over the years is K prioritizing offense over defense. Remember the days where defense would get you on the court? Now we're playing Luke huge minutes, who is a defensive liability on the court, without any rim protectors (due to injury).
Our OADs have not been demonstrably worse on defense and often have been plus defenders (Tatum, Ingram, Winslow, even pre-injury Kyrie was a good defender in college).
OADs by defensive performance:
Positive: Tatum, Ingram, Winslow, Kyrie
Neutral: Okafor, T. Jones, Giles, Rodney, Rivers (I remember him as being decent on-ball with trouble fighting through screens)
Negative: Jabari
You are being overly generous. Kyrie, Ingram, and Tatum aren't defensive stoppers. They also may be good solid defenders but were poor team defenders.
Giles is a negative defender, both individual and team. He is great at rebounding.
Okafor was solid individually. He was pretty terrible on team D.
Kyrie didn't play ACC defense. Can't really comment on his D.
Matches
03-21-2017, 10:32 AM
Kyrie didn't play ACC defense. Can't really comment on his D.
I remember Kyrie being pretty good on D before he got hurt. He was terrible when he got back but who knows how much of that was injury-related. He's.. uh.. not exactly known for his defensive prowess in the NBA, of course.
I respectfully disagree, kaze. Yes I definitely want to see Kennard return, but trying to be as objective as I can be, he is a HORRIBLE defender. I've focused on him the past few weeks as teams execute layup lines against us, and he just can't keep anyone in front of him. On the other hand, a backcourt of Jackson and Duval could finally pressure the ball and return us to a traditionally more effective defense. So I'm greedy and want both Duval and Kennard (or Allen).
We can agree to disagree, but here's my case:
1. This team has no leader. The only returnee who has played a significant role is Frank Jackson. A lot of people have taken Matt and Amile for granted. Their leadership was so valuable both on and off the court for the younger guys. They were the ones making sure guys were doing things the right way. They were the ones barking out defensive assignments and getting into guys during huddles. Coach K can't be out on the floor with the players, there needs to be leadership on the floor. If either Luke or Grayson come back, they are the de facto leader(s) of the team, and we need that badly. I think Grayson would be especially effective in that role. His intensity is infectious.
2. We don't know if Duval can defend. Maybe he looks like he could be good defensively, but we all know it takes a long time to become a good defender at this level. It's very rare for freshmen to come in and immediately defend at a high level. Maybe he's decent, but I'll still take a proven upperclassman All-American over him. We know Luke and Grayson are elite scorers. We don't know what Duval will be. We all hope he's a great point guard, but maybe he's more Derryck Thornton than Tyus Jones. This year was the case study of WE JUST DON'T KNOW.
3. Experience, experience, experience. You need guys who have been there before. We won it all on the backs of freshmen in 2015, but do we get there without Quinn Cook? I sincerely doubt it. He was arguably the most important player on that team. He was the captain of the team, led the team in minutes played, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in assists, arguably the 2nd best defender (depending on whether you thought senior Quinn or sophomore Matt was better), by FAR hit the most threes (102, the next highest was Tyus with 47), and his voice was the one that all the young guys listened to in the locker room and in huddles. There's no freakin way a bunch of freshmen and sophomores can win a national title without an older player leading them there. Without Luke or Grayson, that's what we would have next year.
But again, these things are not mutually exclusive. I hope we get Duval AND have Luke or Grayson back to lead the team. Both are likely necessary if we want to win it all, so it doesn't matter a whole lot which one we perceive as more important.
Volunteer Duke
03-21-2017, 10:48 AM
Also freshmen rarely play good defense. Give me Allen, Jackson and Kennard over Duvall any day.
Duval is far better than Grayson and Luke at defense. It's not even close.
Getting Duval is imperative. Without him and if Grayson and Luke came back, we'd lose 7 games and get bounced in the Sweet 16.
We don't need Bamba under any circumstances.
Yes, we do. Perfect fit for K's defense. Bolden was injured all year and out of shape. Bamba is not.
Carter is our 5 and Duke is not going to play 2 freshman true bigs together very much at all. If Knox comes he may be our starting 4 ala Hood, Winslow, Ingram, Tatum.
Duke will be murdered on the boards if Knox is our starting 4. Bamba-Carter-Knox is what the frontline should look like.
2 OADs per year is better than 3 most of the time
How? Do you have evidence to back this up? How does less talent = better?
With a good summer from the vets Duke is absolutely stacked next year.
Not without Duval, Knox, and one of Bolden/Bamba (I hope it's Bamba)
Duval is far better than Grayson and Luke at defense. It's not even close.
Getting Duval is imperative. Without him and if Grayson and Luke came back, we'd lose 7 games and get bounced in the Sweet 16.
Yes, we do. Perfect fit for K's defense. Bolden was injured all year and out of shape. Bamba is not.
Duke will be murdered on the boards if Knox is our starting 4. Bamba-Carter-Knox is what the frontline should look like.
How? Do you have evidence to back this up? How does less talent = better?
Not without Duval, Knox, and one of Bolden/Bamba (I hope it's Bamba)
This is a TON of conjecture . . .
You criticize others for lack of evidence, and yet, 100% of this post has no backing evidence.
Troublemaker
03-21-2017, 11:00 AM
In 2010 we blew WV out in the final four without a PG
They hadn't become Press Virginia yet in 2010. Huggins began this pressing system in the 2015 season.
Volunteer Duke
03-21-2017, 11:01 AM
This is a TON of conjecture . . .
You criticize others for lack of evidence, and yet, 100% of this post has no backing evidence.
Bamba is not injured nor is he out of shape, and Duval is clearly a more capable defender than Grayson/Luke to anyone who has seen highlights or seen him play.
For the life of me, I can't understand why some want us to continue to play guys out of position. It hurt us badly this year. Amile was a warrior but he's a 4. Tatum was great but he's a 3.
You need big guys to play the 4 and 5. That's not conjecture. Knox is a thin wing. Not a 4 who's going to bang down low.
Example: Purdue made it further than us this year with less overall talent but they're not playing out of position.
If K has a good post, he will use him. Harry and Marques were just injured all year.
mattman91
03-21-2017, 11:03 AM
Bamba is not injured nor is he out of shape, and Duval is clearly a more capable defender than Grayson/Luke to anyone who has seen highlights or seen him play.
For the life of me, I can't understand why some want us to continue to play guys out of position. It hurt us badly this year. Amile was a warrior but he's a 4. Tatum was great but he's a 3.
You need big guys to play the 4 and 5. That's not conjecture. Knox is a thin wing. Not a 4 who's going to bang down low.
Example: Purdue made it further than us this year with less overall talent but they're not playing out of position.
If K has a good post, he will use him. Harry and Marques were just injured all year.
Yes, high school highlight videos tell all.
CrazyNotCrazie
03-21-2017, 11:09 AM
Yes, high school highlight videos tell all.
"But he held a barca lounger scoreless!"
I am more concerned about our guards for next year than big guys. I would be OK starting the year with Carter, Chase and Vrank, and would be even happier if Bolden was added to that mix. If both Grayson and Luke came back I would be OK without a pure pg coming in as we would have enough talent to work around it, but otherwise, I would really like someone whose primary job is to handle the ball. At this relatively late date the numbers have dwindled, but if we have enough talent out there at the other four spots, I don't need our PG to be a McD's guy - in some ways it is almost preferable to have someone who doesn't want or need to score. That being said, I would love to have Duval based on what I have heard of him.
Volunteer Duke
03-21-2017, 11:11 AM
Yes, high school highlight videos tell all.
Did I say that?
They don't tell all, but some things are pretty obvious.
Thankfully, I think we are going to see a Duval/Jackson/Trent backcourt with Knox on the wing and Carter and Bamba in the post. Lots of matchup problems that group can cause on offense and defense.
Potentially 6 1st rounders in the rotation.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-21-2017, 11:18 AM
Did I say that?
They don't tell all, but some things are pretty obvious.
Thankfully, I think we are going to see a Duval/Jackson/Trent backcourt with Knox on the wing and Carter and Bamba in the post. Lots of matchup problems that group can cause on offense and defense.
Potentially 6 1st rounders in the rotation.
I don't mean to speak for mattman, but I think a lot of things that were "obvious" this year didn't really pan out.
Troublemaker
03-21-2017, 11:20 AM
There are disagreements about WHO is the most important player.
I'm in the camp who believes that Duval is the single-most important to our team next year.
Right, I didn't mean to side-track with this discussion, and obviously most of us would love to have BOTH Kennard and Duval on next year's team.
What I did was just remove emotion from the equation and look at who is already expected to be on the roster.
Jackson can start as a combo guard 2, similar to Cook in 2015. Trent can start at the wing, and Carter can start at center. So what's missing below?
???
Jackson
Trent
????
Carter
Based on an emotionless marginal benefit analysis, Duval and then Knox would seem to add the most.
There would be concerns about experience, sure, but I don't think those concerns outweigh just fielding a complete lineup. We need a PG and someone who can play the Duke 4. Now, if we can add everybody, let's add everybody. But, this little offseason exercise is about which player would be of primary importance to add.
Right, I didn't mean to side-track with this discussion, and obviously most of us would love to have BOTH Kennard and Duval on next year's team.
What I did was just remove emotion from the equation and look at who is already expected to be on the roster. Jackson can start as a combo guard 2, similar to Cook in 2015. Trent can start at the wing, and Carter can start at center. So what's missing below?
???
Jackson
Trent
????
Carter
Based on an emotionless marginal benefit analysis, Duval and then Knox would seem to add the most.
There would be concerns about experience, sure, but I don't think those concerns outweigh just fielding a complete lineup. We need a PG and someone who can play the Duke 4. Now, if we can add everybody, let's add everybody. But, this little offseason exercise is about which player would be of primary importance to add.
I'm not sold on Trent as a starter. I think he's more a of 2 or 3 year player than a OAD. He has a reputation as a very nice scorer, but his skill level on offense is still far below Luke. He has a very deliberate pace to his game on offense, and isn't as explosive as Grayson or Frank, or as crafty as Luke. I think he comes off the bench as a freshman if either Luke or Grayson returns. Jackson and Carter are the only locks to start for me thus far.
Duval/Allen/Kennard/Knox/Carter is the dream.
Indoor66
03-21-2017, 11:28 AM
What happened to last year's locks to start?
If both Grayson and Luke came back I would be OK without a pure pg coming in as we would have enough talent to work around it
While I wouldn't necessarily call this season a disappointment with an ACC Title given all of the injuries and events, isn't this where we ended up this season? There is a greater likelihood of success in college ball, especially come tourney time, with a pure PG who can break a defense down, drive, distribute and defend. I know they don't grow on trees so I think getting Duval (or a grad transfer who fits the bill) is really key to next year's success.
pfrduke
03-21-2017, 11:30 AM
What happened to last year's locks to start?
They all started most of our games except for the one that had three knee surgeries in three years and never got fully healthy. Was this a trick question?
For the life of me, I can't understand why some want us to continue to play guys out of position. It hurt us badly this year. Amile was a warrior but he's a 4. Tatum was great but he's a 3.
No. Tatum is/was not a 3 in college. Just like deng wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Battier wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Grant Hill wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Winslow wasn't a 3 in college. Players' NBA positions do not necessarily correspond to their college positions. In fact, college players are very typically one position bigger in college than they would be in the pros. I apologize to those that have read these words from me before. Maybe someday folks will realize this so I won't have to type it.
You need big guys to play the 4 and 5. That's not conjecture. Knox is a thin wing. Not a 4 who's going to bang down low.
Did we need big guys to play the 4 in 2001 when Battier played the 4? How about 1999 when Battier played the 4? How about 1991 and 1992 when Grant Hill played there? How about 2004 when Deng played the 4? How about 2015 when Winslow played the 4?
We didn't lose because Tatum played the 4. We lost because we stunk at perimeter defense all season, and in the USC game it - combined with excessive foul trouble - did us in. If anything, our 4/5 combo was one of our defensive strengths, both during the season and in that game.
So, yes, your statement that you need big guys to play the 4 and 5 is, absolutely, conjecture.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 11:30 AM
Right, I didn't mean to side-track with this discussion, and obviously most of us would love to have BOTH Kennard and Duval on next year's team.
What I did was just remove emotion from the equation and look at who is already expected to be on the roster.
Jackson can start as a combo guard 2, similar to Cook in 2015. Trent can start at the wing, and Carter can start at center. So what's missing below?
???
Jackson
Trent
????
Carter
Based on an emotionless marginal benefit analysis, Duval and then Knox would seem to add the most.
There would be concerns about experience, sure, but I don't think those concerns outweigh just fielding a complete lineup. We need a PG and someone who can play the Duke 4. Now, if we can add everybody, let's add everybody. But, this little offseason exercise is about which player would be of primary importance to add.
I'm weirdly not worried about experience. I'm worried about depth (or lack thereof). I 100% agree with your line-up (I'd exchange Luke/Allen for Trent/Jackson if either returns). But this means we need at least 2 of Jeter/DeLaurier/White/Vrank/O'Connell to legitimately be part of the line-up instead of Coach K's "insurance policy" or "someone is playing really poorly and I want to teach them a lesson". And given that this is Coach K, I'm not sure that will happen.
Anywho, I agree with you that Duval is the single most important recruit. He's the only guy who can play the 1 and not be overwhelmed. I don't care if he's not a distributor; I just want a ball-handler that makes everyone better. And that is Duval. Also, he can't be worse on D than Allen or Kennard. That's not possible.
duke09hms
03-21-2017, 11:34 AM
I'm weirdly not worried about experience. I'm worried about depth (or lack thereof). I 100% agree with your line-up (I'd exchange Luke/Allen for Trent/Jackson if either returns). But this means we need at least 2 of Jeter/DeLaurier/White/Vrank/O'Connell to legitimately be part of the line-up instead of Coach K's "insurance policy" or "someone is playing really poorly and I want to teach them a lesson". And given that this is Coach K, I'm not sure that will happen.
Anywho, I agree with you that Duval is the single most important recruit. He's the only guy who can play the 1 and not be overwhelmed. I don't care if he's not a distributor; I just want a ball-handler that makes everyone better. And that is Duval. Also, he can't be worse on D than Allen or Kennard. That's not possible.
Kennard was terrible on defense for sure. But Grayson? I think a healthy Grayson is actually a plus defender in the backcourt, never considered him a liability.
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 11:40 AM
What happened to last year's locks to start?
They're probably starting next season.
Li_Duke
03-21-2017, 11:43 AM
I guess another way to look at it is that with K, you have to be one of the top 7. If the top 7 include 2 elite low block monsters who can't shoot beyond 15 feet, then he'll find a way to work with them...but what are the odds that would ever happen?
2010 comes to mind as 2 starters who couldn't shoot beyond 15 feet.
Volunteer Duke
03-21-2017, 11:43 AM
No. Tatum is/was not a 3 in college. Just like deng wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Battier wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Grant Hill wasn't a 3 in college. Just like Winslow wasn't a 3 in college. Players' NBA positions do not necessarily correspond to their college positions. In fact, college players are very typically one position bigger in college than they would be in the pros. I apologize to those that have read these words from me before. Maybe someday folks will realize this so I won't have to type it.
Tatum wasn't a 3 in college because Harry Giles had knee surgery and Marques Bolden hurt his foot. He was the starting 3 for us at the beginning of the year.
Players' NBA positions do not necessarily correspond to their college positions, that is true, but that's only because the college team isn't as good as an NBA team, typically.
The two best teams of the past 10 years were the 2012 and 2015 Kentucky teams. The 2012 team went 38-2 en route to a national title because they had a true center (Anthony Davis), a true 4 (Terrence Jones), a true 3 (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist), and Teague and Lamb at their natural guard spots.
The 2015 Kentucky team that went 38-1 was built similarly but didn't even make it to the title game because of that silly platoon system and an over-reliance on the Harrison twins as opposed to Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Did we need big guys to play the 4 in 2001 when Battier played the 4? How about 1999 when Battier played the 4? How about 1991 and 1992 when Grant Hill played there? How about 2004 when Deng played the 4? How about 2015 when Winslow played the 4?
Those teams were successful despite having guys out of position because they were just that talented and well-coached.
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 11:52 AM
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
Tatum wasn't a 3 in college because Harry Giles had knee surgery and Marques Bolden hurt his foot. He was the starting 3 for us at the beginning of the year.
He played a handful of games before it was quite clear that he was more effective at the 4.
Players' NBA positions do not necessarily correspond to their college positions, that is true, but that's only because the college team isn't as good as an NBA team, typically.
No, I would argue differently. There are a few reasons:
1. Talent differences. In the NBA, most PFs are also really skilled and athletic. They tend to be the best of the college Cs and (in some rare cases) PFs.
2. Shorter 3 point line puts greater emphasis on perimeter shooting, which means smaller guys
3. Supply and demand
But points 2 and 3 are a BIG reason why college 4s tend to be NBA 3s. Because most teams in college play a 3 at the 4 spot, you need your 4 to be able to defend on the perimeter.
The two best teams of the past 10 years were the 2012 and 2015 Kentucky teams. The 2012 team went 38-2 en route to a national title because they had a true center (Anthony Davis), a true 4 (Terrence Jones), a true 3 (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist), and Teague and Lamb at their natural guard spots.
The 2015 Kentucky team that went 38-1 was built similarly but didn't even make it to the title game because of that silly platoon system and an over-reliance on the Harrison twins as opposed to Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns.
I disagree with you here. Not that those UK teams were two of the best of the last decade. They were. But they weren't the best teams simply because they had a big power forward. They were the best because they had an unbelievable allotment of NBA talent and athleticism.
Sort of like what you quoted as the argument against having an NBA 3 at the 4 spot.
Those teams were successful despite having guys out of position because they were just that talented and well-coached.
There are certainly advantages to having two bigs. Your rebounding and shotblocking are likely to be better. There are disadvantages too. Your perimeter defense and 3pt shooting are not likely to be as good. Either strategy can work. It's all about the talent you put on the floor. If you have the talent, you can win, big or small. If you have the most talent and the best coaching, you are more likely to win than teams with less talent and/or less coaching.
In other words, NO, you don't NEED to have bigs at both the 4 and 5. So, YES, your comment that you need to have bigs at the 4 and 5 is conjecture.
Those teams were successful despite having guys out of position because they were just that talented and well-coached.
They were also ahead of their time. Basketball today is rapidly getting smaller. Think of Golden State's "death line-up" with Green at the five or San Antonio with Leonard at the four. Today it's all about "pace and space" and versatility to let shooters do their thing. No matter who had progressed to what extent, it would have made sense to give Tatum good minutes at the four.
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
Far more important for a PG is vision and court awareness. Some great PGs weren't very quick, fast or athletic (by NBA standards, at least), including Steph, Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson and Deron Williams.
Troublemaker
03-21-2017, 12:23 PM
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
I'm not at all convinced of that. But I don't know that he can successfully make a complete transition in one offseason. In either case, I'd still want Trevon Duval.
I'm pretty much in agreement with Luke Winn about two-PG lineups (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/01/11/frank-mason-iii-devonte-graham-kansas-jayhawks).
Those teams were successful despite having guys out of position because they were just that talented and well-coached.
Almost all of Duke's best teams had guys playing out of position, huh? That's an interesting take.
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
Far more important for a PG is vision and court awareness. Some great PGs weren't very quick, fast or athletic (by NBA standards, at least), including Steph, Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson and Deron Williams.
I definitely wouldn't say that Jackson can't become a great PG. But I agree that it isn't as simple as spending an offseason working on dribbling (which, in itself isn't actually a simple thing - it probably takes YEARS to improve ballhandling). There is a lot that goes into being a PG.
I certainly won't say Jackson can't or won't get there as a PG. Just that he is pretty far from there right now. I would be surprised if he gets there by next year. And that's fine. I think he can be All-American level good as a SG.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 12:38 PM
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
Frank, right now, is an SG. His handle is okay. He has a pretty awful A/TO ratio (1.22). He makes easy passes look hard.
Can Frank become a PG? Sure, kinda like every big man at Duke can develop a jump shot. It is so much harder than it looks.
EVERYONE points to 2010 and says, "this guard can easily become a PG". That's what makes Scheyer so special: he is that rare. Look at all the combo guards in the NBA who can't run a team - there are countless examples. Being a PG - especially for an elite program - is so difficult.
Frank, right now, is an SG. His handle is okay. He has a pretty awful A/TO ratio (1.22). He makes easy passes look hard.
Can Frank become a PG? Sure, kinda like every big man at Duke can develop a jump shot. It is so much harder than it looks.
EVERYONE points to 2010 and says, "this guard can easily become a PG". That's what makes Scheyer so special: he is that rare. Look at all the combo guards in the NBA who can't run a team - there are countless examples. Being a PG - especially for an elite program - is so difficult.
Agreed . . . I like Frank as a 2. He's an excellent shooter off the catch and is great at finishing in the paint as well. He's not as good at creating his own shot, so having a point guard will only help his game.
But for the exact same reasons, both Grayson and Luke would also benefit tremendously from having a point guard. No one seems to realize how much of a burden it was for Grayson to try to play point guard this year. That is not what he is best at (although I thought he did an admirable job when he was healthy), and if he had a true play maker setting him up, he may well have had the NPOY season people expected of him.
Matches
03-21-2017, 12:46 PM
They were also ahead of their time. Basketball today is rapidly getting smaller. Think of Golden State's "death line-up" with Green at the five or San Antonio with Leonard at the four. Today it's all about "pace and space" and versatility to let shooters do their thing. No matter who had progressed to what extent, it would have made sense to give Tatum good minutes at the four.
Much like Ingram in 2016, or Winslow in 2014. Maybe Ingram's situation in '16 would have been different if Amile didn't get hurt. No question you're right, though, and if there is one tweak I'd like to see with our recruiting, it would be to construct a roster that better reflects that. Last season we had Giles, Bolden, Jeter, Vrank and Jefferson, ALL of whom are arguably college 5s. It doesn't really seem like we need that many bigs if we're only going to play one at a time - and almost every year we end up only playing one at a time.
Can Frank become a PG? Sure, kinda like every big man at Duke can develop a jump shot. It is so much harder than it looks.
My best friend at Duke was a basketball player. He was a rotation player, 10-12 minutes a game on a very good team. His job was rebounding, defense and giving the lead frontcourt guys a rest. He *never* shot. Hacking around in Card, he would routinely hit 10-12 three-pointers in row (in terms of distance, there was no three-point line then). When I would ask why he didn't shoot like that in games he simply said, "It's really different."
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 12:52 PM
Agreed . . . I like Frank as a 2. He's an excellent shooter off the catch and is great at finishing in the paint as well. He's not as good at creating his own shot, so having a point guard will only help his game.
But for the exact same reasons, both Grayson and Luke would also benefit tremendously from having a point guard. No one seems to realize how much of a burden it was for Grayson to try to play point guard this year. That is not what he is best at, and if he had a true play maker setting him up, he may well have had the NPOY season people expected of him.
Agreed. Part of what made this year so frustrating is that there was no such thing as an easy basket. Luke, Tatum, Grayson, and Jackson had to work for their shots. Our bigmen didn't really get easy baskets either (that's due to Amile not regaining early season form and because the rest of our big men can't score in 1-on-1 situations).
With a PG, it makes things 10x easier. Look at Frank Mason, De'Aaron Fox, or Lonzo Ball. Hell, look at Joel Berry, who isn't a pass-first PG. He is the engine that drives UNC. We need a $%&# PG.
Anyone know if the staff had their end-of-year reviews with each player yesterday? I recall that it happens very shortly after the season ends.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 12:53 PM
My best friend at Duke was a basketball player. He was a rotation player, 10-12 minutes a game on a very good team. His job was rebounding, defense and giving the lead frontcourt guys a rest. He *never* shot. Hacking around in Card, he would routinely hit 10-12 three-pointers in row (in terms of distance, there was no three-point line then). When I would ask why he didn't shoot like that in games he simply said, "It's really different."
Really different in that the game environment makes it challenging, or really different in that Coach K would chew you out if he attempted one? I wouldn't be surprised by either.
Much like Ingram in 2016, or Winslow in 2014. Maybe Ingram's situation in '16 would have been different if Amile didn't get hurt. No question you're right, though, and if there is one tweak I'd like to see with our recruiting, it would be to construct a roster that better reflects that. Last season we had Giles, Bolden, Jeter, Vrank and Jefferson, ALL of whom are arguably college 5s. It doesn't really seem like we need that many bigs if we're only going to play one at a time - and almost every year we end up only playing one at a time.
I don't disagree, but college allows more flexibility because the level of play is so much lower than the NBA. If you can get somebody who you think can be great you take him and worry about how to use him later. Moreover, the fail rate in recruiting is much higher than we generally assume and especially so with bigs. Consider that roughly half of all NBA #1 picks don't really make it and evaluating talent at that level is a fair amount easier than evaluating high school/AAU players.
Really different in that the game environment makes it challenging, or really different in that Coach K would chew you out if he attempted one? I would be surprised by either.
More the former than the latter (bearing in mind that we're talking pre-K).
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 01:00 PM
He's not as good at creating his own shot....
I disagree. Frank combines a very good first step with speed and quickness. He can score on strong drives to the rim or a one-handed teardrop. Frank has a respectable crossover that will improve as will his ball handling. Clearly, he needs to work on his mid-range shot.
flyingdutchdevil
03-21-2017, 01:01 PM
I disagree. Frank combines a very good first step with speed and quickness. He can score on strong drives to the rim or a one-handed teardrop. Frank has a respectable crossover that will improve as will his ball handling. Clearly, he needs to work on his mid-range shot.
Like our big men!
Saratoga2
03-21-2017, 01:03 PM
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
I think he best fits a Quinn Cook role. Someone who is a scorer and has the ability to handle the ball well and if there every was such a position, a in the rotation complementary PG. Tyus not only had the handle and could score when required, but had that intangible quality of seeing the floor and knowing how to utilize his team mates. You appreciate those qualities only when you see a player that possesses them.
Saratoga2
03-21-2017, 01:28 PM
Duval is far better than Grayson and Luke at defense. It's not even close.
I am tired of people who subscribe to the myth that Luke was a terrible defender. My view is that Luke did some things well on defense and some things not so well. He did box out well and mixed it up well enough to be up there in rebounds game after game. Luke is a heady player and did very well switching. What Luke isn't is blessed with great lateral quickness, so he has trouble with very quick opponents guards. Who on the club didn't? Personally I saw Luke as an average defender and a great scorer. Scheyer had some of the same limitations on defense but was smart and covered passing lanes. I think he was a great asset to Duke.
Saratoga2
03-21-2017, 01:35 PM
Agreed . . . I like Frank as a 2. He's an excellent shooter off the catch and is great at finishing in the paint as well. He's not as good at creating his own shot, so having a point guard will only help his game.
But for the exact same reasons, both Grayson and Luke would also benefit tremendously from having a point guard. No one seems to realize how much of a burden it was for Grayson to try to play point guard this year. That is not what he is best at (although I thought he did an admirable job when he was healthy), and if he had a true play maker setting him up, he may well have had the NPOY season people expected of him.
We also seem to be considering Tremont Waters, should we miss on Duval. He is smaller (about 4 inches) but might wind up being a backup position to Duval.
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 01:38 PM
I certainly agree with the concerns expressed about Frank's passing decisions this season. However, this was a very chaotic season given multiple injuries, lineups, role changes, and K's mid-season absence. I think it's too early to conclude Frank does not have sufficient court awareness to be a true PG.
IMO, this season's chaos not only affected Frank's play, but it affected everyone we played at the pseudo-point (Matt, Grayson, and Frank).
Matches
03-21-2017, 01:45 PM
I certainly agree with the concerns expressed about Frank's passing decisions this season. However, this was a very chaotic season given multiple injuries, lineups, role changes, and K's mid-season absence. I think it's too early to conclude Frank does not have sufficient court awareness to be a true PG.
Probably worth remembering that there was a time many (myself included) were convinced Nolan Smith needed to play off the ball to be successful at the college level.
I disagree. Frank combines a very good first step with speed and quickness. He can score on strong drives to the rim or a one-handed teardrop. Frank has a respectable crossover that will improve as will his ball handling. Clearly, he needs to work on his mid-range shot.
What is there to disagree with? You took my post out of context. I was comparing his ability off the catch vs. his ability off the dribble. Both this numbers and the eye test indicate that he was a much more efficient scorer off the ball than on it.
English
03-21-2017, 01:49 PM
We also seem to be considering Tremont Waters, should we miss on Duval. He is smaller (about 4 inches) but might wind up being a backup position to Duval.
Have you heard about interest from the staff on Waters, following his de-commit? That would be news to me. I wouldn't be surprised, but I just haven't seen anything out in the recruiting ether.
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 01:49 PM
What is there to disagree with?
Good, I'm glad you agree with me.
I suspect Frank was usually told to push the ball. He has a nice first step, quickness, crossover, and deep shot. I think it's too early to measure his step-back skills.
Good, I'm glad you agree with me.
I suspect Frank was usually told to push the ball. He has a nice first step, quickness, crossover, and deep shot. I think it's too early to measure his step-back skills.
Again, that has nothing to do with my post. Frank is more efficient off the ball than on it. He would benefit by playing with a true point guard. I said nothing like "frank should never try to create his own shot."
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 02:21 PM
I was comparing his ability off the catch vs. his ability off the dribble.
Here's where we disagree. IMO, Frank has very good ability to garner scores off the dribble.
Here's where we disagree. IMO, Frank has very good ability to garner scores off the dribble.
That isn't necessarily in disagreement with what kAzE said. He said Jackson is better scoring off ball. Jackson can be very good at scoring off the dribble, and also be better at scoring off the ball. The two are not mutually exclusive statements.
Here's where we disagree. IMO, Frank has very good ability to garner scores off the dribble.
Dude. Come on. I never said he was bad off the dribble, just that he was better off the catch. I'm sorry if that was not clear. But this is not debatable, because it's empirical fact. He scored much more efficiently and turned it over much less when he was not the primary ball handler.
If you disagree with me, then you're saying that we would be better off with Frank as the point guard instead of someone like Trevon Duval, and I don't think that is what you're saying.
Jeffrey
03-21-2017, 02:34 PM
Dude. Come on. I never said he was bad off the dribble, just that he was better off the catch. I'm sorry if that was not clear. But this is not debatable, because it's empirical fact. He scored much more efficiently and turned it over much less when he was not the primary ball handler.
If you disagree with me, then you're saying that we would be better off with Frank as the point guard instead of someone like Trevon Duval, and I don't think that is what you're saying.
I've tried this line before, however, let me try it again......
Good, I'm glad you agree with me.
I've tried this line before, however, let me try it again...
My advice: Read posts more carefully. It's okay to admit when you misunderstood something.
mr. synellinden
03-21-2017, 02:46 PM
I'm not sold on Trent as a starter. I think he's more a of 2 or 3 year player than a OAD. He has a reputation as a very nice scorer, but his skill level on offense is still far below Luke. He has a very deliberate pace to his game on offense, and isn't as explosive as Grayson or Frank, or as crafty as Luke. I think he comes off the bench as a freshman if either Luke or Grayson returns. Jackson and Carter are the only locks to start for me thus far.
Duval/Allen/Kennard/Knox/Carter is the dream.
For what it's worth DraftExpress has Trent as a lottery pick next year.
For what it's worth DraftExpress has Trent as a lottery pick next year.
I'm not seeing him at all in their 2018 mock draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2018/
Where did you see that?
Overall, I am very happy with the year that Frank had.
My opinion on Frank as a PG is this: he has not developed PG habits (in the scientific sense) yet. In other words, he doesn't react automatically the way we would want a PG to react without having to think about it. He has to think about what he's doing as a PG. Comparing him to Tyus, who had off-the-charts PG habits (which I know is not fair comparison for Frank, but just as an example), there is a 0% chance that Frank would ever make the pass you see at the 1:30 mark of this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t04EL2oKLc) this year. Frank would have pulled it out and reset the offense. I predict he will steadily become more PG-habit-driven (if he keeps playing PG).
He is, however, a very instinctual driver of the basketball. He will be pretty special in that regard.
mr. synellinden
03-21-2017, 02:57 PM
I'm not seeing him at all in their 2018 mock draft: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2018/
Where did you see that?
Sorry - it must have been NBADraft.net then - it was one of the two.
And NBA Draft Room has him at 22
http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html
budwom
03-21-2017, 04:31 PM
We can agree to disagree, but here's my case:
1. This team has no leader. The only returnee who has played a significant role is Frank Jackson. A lot of people have taken Matt and Amile for granted. Their leadership was so valuable both on and off the court for the younger guys. They were the ones making sure guys were doing things the right way. They were the ones barking out defensive assignments and getting into guys during huddles. Coach K can't be out on the floor with the players, there needs to be leadership on the floor. If either Luke or Grayson come back, they are the de facto leader(s) of the team, and we need that badly. I think Grayson would be especially effective in that role. His intensity is infectious.
2. We don't know if Duval can defend. Maybe he looks like he could be good defensively, but we all know it takes a long time to become a good defender at this level. It's very rare for freshmen to come in and immediately defend at a high level. Maybe he's decent, but I'll still take a proven upperclassman All-American over him. We know Luke and Grayson are elite scorers. We don't know what Duval will be. We all hope he's a great point guard, but maybe he's more Derryck Thornton than Tyus Jones. This year was the case study of WE JUST DON'T KNOW.
3. Experience, experience, experience. You need guys who have been there before. We won it all on the backs of freshmen in 2015, but do we get there without Quinn Cook? I sincerely doubt it. He was arguably the most important player on that team. He was the captain of the team, led the team in minutes played, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in assists, arguably the 2nd best defender (depending on whether you thought senior Quinn or sophomore Matt was better), by FAR hit the most threes (102, the next highest was Tyus with 47), and his voice was the one that all the young guys listened to in the locker room and in huddles. There's no freakin way a bunch of freshmen and sophomores can win a national title without an older player leading them there. Without Luke or Grayson, that's what we would have next year.
But again, these things are not mutually exclusive. I hope we get Duval AND have Luke or Grayson back to lead the team. Both are likely necessary if we want to win it all, so it doesn't matter a whole lot which one we perceive as more important.
I don't think we're far apart. But you don't seem to be mentioning Duval's PG skills, something else we badly lack. He is a potential all pro distributor. He's a big time point guard, period. And while he is not a proven defender, his quickness
should (emphasis) make him a solid defender.
lotusland
03-21-2017, 06:51 PM
We can quibble about the order, but all but one of K's best Duke teams had at least one PG:
'92-Hurley
2001-J Will, Duhon
'91-Hurley
2015-Tyus, Cook
'99-Avery
'86-Amaker
2010 is the anomaly.
Like Frank and Grayson, but neither are pure PGs and the team was hobbled without solid PG play.
But we've only one a championship with a freshman PG once so 2015 is an outlier.
duke74
03-21-2017, 07:19 PM
I think he best fits a Quinn Cook role. Someone who is a scorer and has the ability to handle the ball well and if there every was such a position, a in the rotation complementary PG. Tyus not only had the handle and could score when required, but had that intangible quality of seeing the floor and knowing how to utilize his team mates. You appreciate those qualities only when you see a player that possesses them.
Or, I might add, when you don't.
Steven43
03-21-2017, 07:46 PM
I think he best fits a Quinn Cook role. Someone who is a scorer and has the ability to handle the ball well and if there every was such a position, a in the rotation complementary PG. Tyus not only had the handle and could score when required, but had that intangible quality of seeing the floor and knowing how to utilize his team mates. You appreciate those qualities only when you see a player that possesses them.
Tyus was the perfect Duke PG. I focused on him every chance I got when I was in Cameron. There was just something magical about his passing. The ball came off his hands differently than others. It was similar to Kendall Marshall, but even better.
Beyond that his ballhandling ability was top notch, his shot quite solid, and his FT shooting was excellent. But what really separated Tyus was his combination of poise, maturity, headiness, clutch play and leadership. The guy was a stone cold killer. A pure winner. I love Tyus Jones. My ultimate sports dream would have been four years of Tyus.
Tyus was the perfect Duke PG.
Bobby Hurley says hi.
Beyond that his ballhandling ability was top notch, his shot quite solid, and his FT shooting was excellent. But what really separated Tyus was his combination of poise, maturity, headiness, clutch play and leadership. The guy was a stone cold killer. A pure winner. I love Tyus Jones. My ultimate sports dream would have been four years of Tyus.
Four years of Tyus maybe -- *maybe* -- gets near Hurley territory (as much as I loved Tyus).
lotusland
03-21-2017, 08:10 PM
Duval is far better than Grayson and Luke at defense. It's not even close.
Getting Duval is imperative. Without him and if Grayson and Luke came back, we'd lose 7 games and get bounced in the Sweet 16.
Yes, we do. Perfect fit for K's defense. Bolden was injured all year and out of shape. Bamba is not.
Duke will be murdered on the boards if Knox is our starting 4. Bamba-Carter-Knox is what the frontline should look like.
How? Do you have evidence to back this up? How does less talent = better?
Not without Duval, Knox, and one of Bolden/Bamba (I hope it's Bamba)
Do you have evidence for any of your assertions? How does less experience = better? I just offered my opinion and that's all you have done. You are welcome to your opinion as am I to mine.
lotusland
03-21-2017, 08:26 PM
Bamba is not injured nor is he out of shape, and Duval is clearly a more capable defender than Grayson/Luke to anyone who has seen highlights or seen him play.
For the life of me, I can't understand why some want us to continue to play guys out of position. It hurt us badly this year. Amile was a warrior but he's a 4. Tatum was great but he's a 3.
You need big guys to play the 4 and 5. That's not conjecture. Knox is a thin wing. Not a 4 who's going to bang down low.
Example: Purdue made it further than us this year with less overall talent but they're not playing out of position.
If K has a good post, he will use him. Harry and Marques were just injured all year.
But Bolden won't be hurt and of of shape next year so how is Bamba a better option than a second year Bolden?. I don't know if Knox can play either 3 or 4 at Duke but, if he's like Tatum or Winslow or Hood or Ingram, there is a very good chance he'll start at the 4 spot. You seem to be saying that K didn't use Hood, Winslow, Ingram and Tatum where he should have. I disagree.
I don't think either Carter or Bamba will rotate effectively on D as a freshman at Duke. We haven't had one OAD yet who did. Therefore I suspect both our Defense and offense would suffer with those two playing big minutes on the floor together. for every shot Bamba blocks at the rim, how many open layups will he give up because he's out of position?
Indoor66
03-21-2017, 08:36 PM
Blocks are THE most overrated stat in basketball.
lotusland
03-21-2017, 08:39 PM
Why is everyone convinced Frank cannot become a true PG? He's quick, fast, and athletic. An off-season of Curry's dribbling drills and I think it's possible.
I'm with you. Frank can handle it if we need him too. He'll be better both on offense and defense next year. I would love to have GA back again too. If he makes the same degree of improvement again next year in passing and ball handling as he showed this year, he'll be a very good PG. I'm sure Duvall will be great if he comes but, if I had to choose, I'd take GA and/or Luke paired with Jackson vs. Duvall and Jackson w/o GA and Luke.
lotusland
03-21-2017, 08:51 PM
Agreed. Part of what made this year so frustrating is that there was no such thing as an easy basket. Luke, Tatum, Grayson, and Jackson had to work for their shots. Our bigmen didn't really get easy baskets either (that's due to Amile not regaining early season form and because the rest of our big men can't score in 1-on-1 situations).
With a PG, it makes things 10x easier. Look at Frank Mason, De'Aaron Fox, or Lonzo Ball. Hell, look at Joel Berry, who isn't a pass-first PG. He is the engine that drives UNC. We need a $%&# PG.
I just don't think scoring has been Duke's issue either this year or last. I don't think 1 great passer helps that much anyway. I feel like having 4-5 guys who know how to move the ball and get open is more helpful to getting easy baskets but, again, better defense is more of a need than better offense.
Newton_14
03-21-2017, 09:18 PM
I can't wait to see who the captain or captains will be next season.
There's a decent chance Duke will have a true sophomore captain in Frank for the first time ever. (Rodney Hood was a redshirt sophomore due to his transfer.)
AND, if Frank isn't ready for that responsibility yet, and if there happens to be an alpha among the freshmen with natural leadership abilities, Duke could have its first freshman captain next season.
(Of course, if Luke or Grayson returns, either would be an easy choice for co-captain at least.)
I'm pretty sure Paulus and McBob were both Captains as true Sophomores no?
It's pretty hard to predict next year's roster when apparently everyone is going to party like it's 1999 and predicting there is going to be a mass exodus ala Langdon, Brand, Avery, Maggette, and Burgess, and we are going to need to find some Reggie Love prototypes from Cut's current FB team....
Jaded Newt? Uh Yeah
Atlanta Duke
03-21-2017, 09:36 PM
When your season ends earlier than expected you renew recruiting earlier than expected
N&O article on potential departures and arrivals for next season reports K met with Kevin Knox and Trevon Duval on Tuesday
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article139915523.html
Troublemaker
03-21-2017, 09:41 PM
I'm pretty sure Paulus and McBob were both Captains as true Sophomores no?
It's pretty hard to predict next year's roster when apparently everyone is going to party like it's 1999 and predicting there is going to be a mass exodus ala Langdon, Brand, Avery, Maggette, and Burgess, and we are going to need to find some Reggie Love prototypes from Cut's current FB team...
Jaded Newt? Uh Yeah
They sure were! Good call - I totally forgot about that. What a young team we had that season. #5 defense, but couldn't score a lick.
As for people's predictions... don't worry -- none will have any bearing on the players' decisions to stay or go.
Furniture
03-21-2017, 10:24 PM
When your season ends earlier than expected you renew recruiting earlier than expected
N&O article on potential departures and arrivals for next season reports K met with Kevin Knox and Trevon Duval on Tuesday
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article139915523.html
Blue Devil Nation @BlueDevilNation (https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevilNation)
Trevon @DatGuy_Trey (https://mobile.twitter.com/DatGuy_Trey) Duval got a visit from Coach K and Duke today and he's been offered the opportunity to drive the team. Best PG out there
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2723206316/4edb5d803c31151fc4fd32f7e1fb4e8f_bigger.jpeg
(https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevilNation)
3h (https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/844313946450542592)Blue Devil Nation @BlueDevilNation (https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevilNation)
Duke and Coach K visited Kevin Knox @kevin_knox23 (https://mobile.twitter.com/kevin_knox23) trying to close the deal on the big time prospect.
weezie
03-21-2017, 10:34 PM
...K met with Kevin Knox and Trevon Duval on Tuesday...
That is some tough dedication to excellence; just as you finish patting shoulders, hugging your seniors, hanging up the whistle, out the door you go to another 17 year old's living room.
Blessings on Coach K. I know other coaches do it, too, but I like him the best.
jv001
03-21-2017, 11:02 PM
I really don't know how you could tell anymore. High school basketball seems to be dominated by the AAU circuit which often look like glorified pick-up games with "coaches" and refs. I'm not sure how many HS coaches actually teach defensive positioning and technique, and require players to practice it. Duval is a 1 and done. Typically, I haven't seen those guys interested in playing too much D. They also have a very short time frame to learn in college. IMO, the best asset a high school guard can have to be "known" for defense is foot speed. At least then we know they have the physical tools to move their feet. Duval is definitely quick on his feet. But the other part of defense is desire/motivation. You never know about that part.
Hurley and Amaker were good defensive players as freshmen, but I can't think of anymore freshmen point guards that were above average defenders as freshmen. GoDuke!
Ultrarunner
03-21-2017, 11:12 PM
Hurley and Amaker were good defensive players as freshmen, but I can't think of anymore freshmen point guards that were above average defenders as freshmen. GoDuke!
Duhon was solid.
gofurman
03-21-2017, 11:19 PM
Well, it stinks that the season has ended two weeks too soon. At least we brought home a banner this year, but it does feel a bit bittersweet. Injuries throughout derailed what looked like a potentially great team. Just bad luck.
With the loss, we now face a pretty tricky offseason. We lose Jefferson and Jones to graduation. We will lose Tatum to the draft as he is likely a top-5 pick. We currently have 3 recruits for next season: Carter, Trent, and McConnell. Everything else is in flux.
Potential rising seniors
Allen: Coming into the year, it was a foregone conclusion that he'd go pro. Reports were that he was on the "3-year graduation track." And then, injuries and incidents marred his season. Now? He's not projected to be a first round pick by anyone. Does he still go? Perhaps. Does he stay to try to improve his stock in what appears to be a weaker class next year? Perhaps.
Obi: he appears to be essentially a manager now as it does not appear that he'll be physically able to compete anymore.
Potential rising juniors
Kennard: He surprised most by having an amazing sophomore year. It was a first team All-ACC caliber season, and he was at times unstoppable. His final two games of the season were disappointing relative to how great and how consistent he was this year. Did his season push him into the draft a year or two early? Perhaps.
Jeter: He has become a bit of a forgotten man. Perhaps a bit overranked in what was a weak recruiting class for big men, he looked overwhelmed as a freshman. He looked a bit better at times as a sophomore, but the eventual arrival of Giles and Bolden and back surgery put him out of the rotation. He has the potential to be a key rotation piece next year if he stays and Bolden and Giles go. But with Carter coming in, frontcourt minutes could get scarce really quickly.
Vrankovic: He seems to have settled in as a third or fourth center. He's had some nice moments here and there. But availability of minutes will be the issue for him.
Potential rising sophomores
Jackson: He has the potential to be an absolute stud next year. He seemed shaky with the ball at times, and is probably better suited playing off the ball a bit more where he can focus on his slashing. When forced to play PG, he struggled at times. But I'm extremely excited about his potential next year.
Giles: He is likely to go pro, as I imagine he'll get drafted in the first round on potential. Would love to have him back, but whatever decision he makes is fine with me. If he does somehow decide to return, he could be a real difference maker.
Bolden: Don't know what to expect from him. He has the size and potential, but rarely showed it this year. Nothing would surprise me with regards to his future.
DeLaurier: Great athlete, just couldn't find his way into the rotation this year. There will be minutes available next year, but it is quite rare at Duke for a freshman to go from under 100 minutes on the season to a major role the next year.
White: Less heralded recruit, shot well but looked overwhelmed by the speed of the game on defense in his rare minutes against ACC opponents.
Potential freshmen
Knox: The heir apparent to Tatum.
Duval: The PG that we don't have.
In thinking about it from a "team needs" perspective, we will need at least 2-3 ACC-caliber bigs, ideally a combo forward or two, 3 ACC-caliber wings, and a PG.
Bigs
In for sure: Carter (fresh PF at 250 lbs)
Maybes: Giles, Bolden, Jeter
In but role unclear: Vrankovic
Combo forwards
Maybe: Knox
In but role unclear: DeLaurier
guard / Wings
In for sure: Frank Jackson (soph) and Gary Trent (fresh 2 guard)
Maybe: Allen, Kennard
In but role unclear: White
PG
Maybe: Duval
There are a TON of questions. Hopefully we will have at least one of Giles/Bolden/Jeter. I think it is likely that at least one will be back. Hopefully we will have at least one of Allen and Kennard. I'm less sure about this one. And hopefully we'll get Duval and Knox. If we get good fortune on those three fronts, next year's team looks quite strong again. If we lose both Allen and Kennard and don't get Knox and Duval, things could get really shaky.
I didn't see Trent above in original post so I added him for my,own upkeep
jv001
03-21-2017, 11:35 PM
Duhon was solid.
I forgot about Chris and since Grant played point forward his senior year, I'll put him in the freshman group that could play good defense. GoDuke!
mr. synellinden
03-22-2017, 12:09 AM
When your season ends earlier than expected you renew recruiting earlier than expected
N&O article on potential departures and arrivals for next season reports K met with Kevin Knox and Trevon Duval on Tuesday
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/duke-now/article139915523.html
Well at least one thing this clarifies is that Jeter was healthy at the end of the season. What that means we don't know for sure. Either he was behind Vrank on the depth chart or something else.
dukechem
03-22-2017, 01:53 AM
Anyone think that Grayson might go the graduate transfer route (to Florida perhaps)? He would get the chance to show that he still has game and is over the other issues. Getting away from being the devil incarnate at Duke could take off a lot of pressure.
Troublemaker
03-22-2017, 07:40 AM
Anyone think that Grayson might go the graduate transfer route (to Florida perhaps)? He would get the chance to show that he still has game and is over the other issues. Getting away from being the devil incarnate at Duke could take off a lot of pressure.
He would still get booed every time he touched the ball. You can't make people forget that he played at Duke.
Also, I think folks are overplaying how miserable he was this season. I believe Grayson still overall enjoyed being a Duke basketball player and Duke student. He would enjoy it even more if he had a healthy season next year.
In short, no, Grayson Allen will never play for another school.
whereinthehellami
03-22-2017, 08:16 AM
So worst case scenario could be:
Trent 6-5 FR
O'Connell 6-5 FR
White 6-7 SO
DeLaurier 6-8 SO
Carter 6-9 FR
Inexperienced but might be decent by the end of the year...in the NIT.
Best case scenario could be :
Duval 6-2 FR
Trent 6-5 FR
Knox 6-8 FR
Carter 6-9 FR
Bamba 6-11 FR
A real fab 5!?! About as likely to happen as the possible worst case scenario above but would be fun for the group that likes shiny things!
Possible middle ground scenario:
Duval 6-2 FR
Jackson 6-3 SO
Trent 6-5 FR
DeLaurier 6-8 SO
Carter 6-9 FR
Still pretty inexperienced and would need some players to play above their class. Probably about the same record and expectations as this year.
sagegrouse
03-22-2017, 08:43 AM
He would still get booed every time he touched the ball. You can't make people forget that he played at Duke.
Also, I think folks are overplaying how miserable he was this season. I believe Grayson still overall enjoyed being a Duke basketball player and Duke student. He would enjoy it even more if he had a healthy season next year.
In short, no, Grayson Allen will never play for another school.
I don't see Grayson transferring either. Might as well start in at Fuqua or Duke Law -- or maybe pursue his studies in clinical psychology.
Troublemaker
03-22-2017, 08:50 AM
So worst case scenario could be:
Trent 6-5 FR
O'Connell 6-5 FR
White 6-7 SO
DeLaurier 6-8 SO
Carter 6-9 FR
Inexperienced but might be decent by the end of the year...in the NIT.
Duke's worst-case scenario is better than that because we would be able to get some good grad transfers to come and start.
Best case scenario could be :
Duval 6-2 FR
Trent 6-5 FR
Knox 6-8 FR
Carter 6-9 FR
Bamba 6-11 FR
A real fab 5!?! About as likely to happen as the possible worst case scenario above but would be fun for the group that likes shiny things!
That's not the best-case scenario at all. Lots of returning players would be the best-case scenario.
Possible middle ground scenario:
Duval 6-2 FR
Jackson 6-3 SO
Trent 6-5 FR
DeLaurier 6-8 SO
Carter 6-9 FR
Still pretty inexperienced and would need some players to play above their class. Probably about the same record and expectations as this year.
The expectations would be lower. This season, Duke had the dominant preseason #1 narrative. Next season, Duke will likely be underrated.
And the record would likely be better with that team if they stay healthy.
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