Hand check rule and UNC's offense

[UNCfan]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.

The reason I bring this up is based on the foul disparity between our two teams this season. Duke has the personnel and the awareness to take advantage of the way the game is being called.

Roy's offense focuses on inside/out play and being a good offensive rebounding team. To do this, UNC puts two bigs inside at all times. This clogs the lane and makes it more difficult for our guards/wings to penetrate and create. While we can score in bunches, this hurts us in a tight game because we become easier to guard. In the end, UNC does not get to the line to convert while the clock is stopped.

You have to take the good with the bad. UNC has had good success using this offensive system. I have read the opinions that it doesn't translate to the next level, but I think that is overblown. I think talent and fundamentals translate to the next level. UNC hasn't produced a solid NBA player in a handful of years. Is the system the problem or is it recruiting? I think it is recruiting. A stretch four would make a big difference in the UNC offense.

Having said that, I think UNC will have a different make up next year. I believe UNC will get Kevin Knox and I believe he will play the stretch 4. I also think a player like Jalek Felton will be the slashing 2 guard we need to create these foul opportunities. He has been compared to the Fox kid from UK. If Berry returns, I think we could be exciting to watch next year.

[FerryFor50]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.

The reason I bring this up is based on the foul disparity between our two teams this season. Duke has the personnel and the awareness to take advantage of the way the game is being called.

Roy's offense focuses on inside/out play and being a good offensive rebounding team. To do this, UNC puts two bigs inside at all times. This clogs the lane and makes it more difficult for our guards/wings to penetrate and create. While we can score in bunches, this hurts us in a tight game because we become easier to guard. In the end, UNC does not get to the line to convert while the clock is stopped.

You have to take the good with the bad. UNC has had good success using this offensive system. I have read the opinions that it doesn't translate to the next level, but I think that is overblown. I think talent and fundamentals translate to the next level. UNC hasn't produced a solid NBA player in a handful of years. Is the system the problem or is it recruiting? I think it is recruiting. A stretch four would make a big difference in the UNC offense.

Having said that, I think UNC will have a different make up next year. I believe UNC will get Kevin Knox and I believe he will play the stretch 4. I also think a player like Jalek Felton will be the slashing 2 guard we need to create these foul opportunities. He has been compared to the Fox kid from UK. If Berry returns, I think we could be exciting to watch next year.

I don't think UNC gets Knox. Too much uncertainty flying with the NCAA still, and Knox has very solid options in Duke and Kentucky. Plus, UNC's issues with producing a solid NBA player is mostly recruiting, IMO. Roy isn't getting the top notch talent he once was, and when he does get a guy who might be a valid NBA prospect, he somehow manages to keep them around all 4 years. Personally, I think guys like Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and Isaiah Hicks could have jumped to the NBA early. The more I see of Tony Bradley, the more I think he could, too.

As for hand checking, I don't think they've been calling that consistently at ALL this season. I see Duke players get impeded all the time by hand checks that don't get called. In fact, before the ACC tournament, Duke opponents were regularly shooting more FTs than Duke was.

[bob blue devil]

re next year, it's possible. if knox chooses poorly and is as good as advertised. and if felton is a bit better than advertised. and if berry returns. i'd give those a joint probability of around 10%.

re the system, it's hard to argue with the results. only a handful of teams have had better results over the past 5 seasons. just to be clear, by "system" i'm not talking about the shameless exploitation of student athletes, i'm talking about the playing of two bigs.

re what translates to the nba... i have no idea. that sounds more like recruiting spitballs, but i'm no expert.

[Kedsy]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.

The reason I bring this up is based on the foul disparity between our two teams this season. Duke has the personnel and the awareness to take advantage of the way the game is being called.

Roy's offense focuses on inside/out play and being a good offensive rebounding team. To do this, UNC puts two bigs inside at all times. This clogs the lane and makes it more difficult for our guards/wings to penetrate and create. While we can score in bunches, this hurts us in a tight game because we become easier to guard. In the end, UNC does not get to the line to convert while the clock is stopped.

You have to take the good with the bad. UNC has had good success using this offensive system. I have read the opinions that it doesn't translate to the next level, but I think that is overblown. I think talent and fundamentals translate to the next level. UNC hasn't produced a solid NBA player in a handful of years. Is the system the problem or is it recruiting? I think it is recruiting. A stretch four would make a big difference in the UNC offense.

I think you make several good points here. It used to be having a horse or two inside was what got you to the line, and UNC used to shoot way more free throws than its opponents, but now it's a PG or wing slashing to the hoop, and this season UNC's opponents have shot more free throws than the Heels. That said, the freedom-of-movement rules have affected Duke as well. Duke has gotten a lot more free throws than its opponents this season, but we haven't come all that close to the "make more free throws than your opponents attempt" plateau that both Duke and UNC used to top annually.

As far as NBA prospects, I agree with you that it's recruiting. Even Jalek Felton is ranked a good-but-not-great #26 (according to RSCI), which makes his pro prospects much worse than Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox, who was ranked #6 coming out of high school (huge difference historically between #6 and #26 as far as making the NBA). If you get Kevin Knox (I'm hoping not), that would obviously give you a future pro but I think there's a pretty good chance he'd play SF (assuming J Jackson's gone) and not stretch four.

[Troublemaker]

Having said that, I think UNC will have a different make up next year. I believe UNC will get Kevin Knox and I believe he will play the stretch 4. I also think a player like Jalek Felton will be the slashing 2 guard we need to create these foul opportunities. He has been compared to the Fox kid from UK. If Berry returns, I think we could be exciting to watch next year.

That would be tough to pull off. Now, it COULD happen, but it'll be because UNC tells him they'll play him at the 3, and then when he shows up on campus, "Surprise! It turns out we prefer Luke Maye in a backup role."

If Knox is okay with being a stretch 4 in college, he knows where he should go.

[CDu]

Having said that, I think UNC will have a different make up next year. I believe UNC will get Kevin Knox and I believe he will play the stretch 4. I also think a player like Jalek Felton will be the slashing 2 guard we need to create these foul opportunities. He has been compared to the Fox kid from UK. If Berry returns, I think we could be exciting to watch next year.

I have a few thoughts on this:

1. Knox is a key recruit for you guys. Without him (assuming Jackson goes pro, as he should), I think you guys will be a mediocre team. Just too many years without top-tier recruits. That being said, so far folks don't think he's going to UNC. That could change, and the fact that he's waiting until April could be viewed as optimism for UNC (waiting on Jackson's decision maybe? We know that Tatum is going pro). But we'll see.
2. Even if you get Knox, I'm not sure how much smallball UNC will use. Roy has only gone that route sparingly in his career, and has a HEAVY preference for a two-big lineup. I would imagine that you guys would go the grad transfer route to add another big to Bradley and Maye. So I would expect Knox to play a lot at SF and only some at PF. But, you never know.
3. Felton is a mid-20s recruit in a weaker recruiting class, whereas Fox was a top-5 recruit in a very strong recruiting class. So while Felton may have similarities in style to Fox, I don't think he's on (or near) the same level as Fox. I would say he's somewhere between Fox and Seventh Woods as a recruit.

My early guess would be:
C - Bradley, grad transfer (maybe), Manley/Huffman
PF - Maye, grad transfer (maybe), Huffman
SF - Knox (if you are fortunate) or Williams (if you are not), Robinson
SG - Williams (if you are fortunate and get Knox) or Woods/Felton (if you are not), Woods/Felton
PG - Berry/Woods

[Jeffrey]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.


In his defense, there are many other big reasons.

[kAzE]

I have a few thoughts on this:

My early guess would be:
C - Bradley, grad transfer (maybe), Manley/Huffman
PF - Maye, grad transfer (maybe), Huffman
SF - Knox (if you are fortunate) or Williams (if you are not), Robinson
SG - Williams (if you are fortunate and get Knox) or Woods/Felton (if you are not), Woods/Felton
PG - Berry/Woods

Bradley and Berry will most likely both be back, and be UNC's best 2 players. Bradley is currently #52 in DE's most recent update (3/12), and Berry is #91. There's almost no way either of them will play themselves into the first round during this tournament, so they should both be back.

However, UNC will lose Meeks, Hicks, and Jackson for sure. That's going to hurt a lot. On the plus side, losing Britt is most likely addition by subtraction (he's so bad . . .) I think UNC is a middling ACC team next year, and maybe ranked somewhere in the 15-25 range nationally. Berry and Bradley will be good enough to keep them afloat, but they won't be nearly as good offensively as this year.

I also don't believe they will get Knox. He's watching Jayson Tatum right now and I'm sure he knows about Grant Hill, Jabari Parker, Brandon Ingram, and Justise Winslow. Stretch 4s at Duke are set up to succeed. We used to be point guard U, but I think we're stretch 4 U now.

[aimo]

In his defense, there are many other big reasons.


Amen!

[CDu]

I also don't believe they will get Knox. He's watching Jayson Tatum right now and I'm sure he knows about Grant Hill, Jabari Parker, Brandon Ingram, and Justise Winslow. Stretch 4s at Duke are set up to succeed. We used to be point guard U, but I think we're stretch 4 U now.

I tend to agree. And not just on the grounds of Duke having a MUCH better track record for future NBA SFs playing stretch-4 in college. If you have any aspirations of being a one-and-done player, UNC is simply not the place to go. They simply don't do that. That, along with the hovering NCAA investigation, are a big part of why UNC hasn't gotten top-10 talent since Justin Jackson committed. And Justin Jackson himself is evidence of the problem. UNC under Williams just doesn't get one-and-done talent to the NBA after one year.

Now, maybe Knox doesn't see himself as a one-and-done guy. If so, UNC is certainly a reasonable option. But if he has one-and-done aspirations, UNC is not the place for him.

[FerryFor50]

I tend to agree. And not just on the grounds of Duke having a MUCH better track record for future NBA SFs playing stretch-4 in college. If you have any aspirations of being a one-and-done player, UNC is simply not the place to go. They simply don't do that. That, along with the hovering NCAA investigation, are a big part of why UNC hasn't gotten top-10 talent since Justin Jackson committed. And Justin Jackson himself is evidence of the problem. UNC under Williams just doesn't get one-and-done talent to the NBA after one year.

Now, maybe Knox doesn't see himself as a one-and-done guy. If so, UNC is certainly a reasonable option. But if he has one-and-done aspirations, UNC is not the place for him.

UNC does have a track record of getting guys that are one and done. Marvin Williams was an example. Plus, other guys have left early (to mixed results... see: Joe Forte). But I think it's less about development and more about Roy somehow convincing guys to stay, along with the weird sub patterns Roy employs that doesn't necessarily allow star players to shine. Which, I suppose, would lend itself to the "it's the system" argument. But top recruits are seeing this, along with the NCAA cloud, and are steering clear.

[budwom]

K did some nice subtle Knox recruiting in both his post game on court comments, and in his press conference, discussing how he coached Tatum by giving him
lots of freedom (as opposed to the vastly more structured offense down the road)

[timmy c]

I have a few thoughts on this:

1. Knox is a key recruit for you guys. Without him (assuming Jackson goes pro, as he should), I think you guys will be a mediocre team. Just too many years without top-tier recruits. That being said, so far folks don't think he's going to UNC. That could change, and the fact that he's waiting until April could be viewed as optimism for UNC (waiting on Jackson's decision maybe? We know that Tatum is going pro). But we'll see.
2. Even if you get Knox, I'm not sure how much smallball UNC will use. Roy has only gone that route sparingly in his career, and has a HEAVY preference for a two-big lineup. I would imagine that you guys would go the grad transfer route to add another big to Bradley and Maye. So I would expect Knox to play a lot at SF and only some at PF. But, you never know.
3. Felton is a mid-20s recruit in a weaker recruiting class, whereas Fox was a top-5 recruit in a very strong recruiting class. So while Felton may have similarities in style to Fox, I don't think he's on (or near) the same level as Fox. I would say he's somewhere between Fox and Seventh Woods as a recruit.

My early guess would be:
C - Bradley, grad transfer (maybe), Manley/Huffman
PF - Maye, grad transfer (maybe), Huffman
SF - Knox (if you are fortunate) or Williams (if you are not), Robinson
SG - Williams (if you are fortunate and get Knox) or Woods/Felton (if you are not), Woods/Felton
PG - Berry/Woods

CDU, thanks for the analysis of UNC's roster for next year. The Cheats might be better than you think next year. Pinson is a junior, and still has a year of eligibility. It's possible he declares for the draft, but I would bet he's back next year. He probably starts at the SF spot, or moves to the SG spot if UNC lands Knox. He's a defender, with great court vision.

[OldPhiKap]

CDU, thanks for the analysis of UNC's roster for next year. The Cheats might be better than you think next year. Pinson is a junior, and still has a year of eligibility. It's possible he declares for the draft, but I would bet he's back next year. He probably starts at the SF spot, or moves to the SG spot if UNC lands Knox. He's a defender, with great court vision.

Tales of Tar Heel demise, oft hoped for, are usually premature.

Unless and until the NCAA drops the hammer, UNC will be a top-level ACC team. Too much history, HOF coach, playing time if there is a talent hole somewhere (no joke intended). The only thing that will drop them significantly is a post-season ban and a Herculean smack with the ugly stick.

Having said that, a Knox miss will hurt.

[CDu]

CDU, thanks for the analysis of UNC's roster for next year. The Cheats might be better than you think next year. Pinson is a junior, and still has a year of eligibility. It's possible he declares for the draft, but I would bet he's back next year. He probably starts at the SF spot, or moves to the SG spot if UNC lands Knox. He's a defender, with great court vision.

Doh! I completely forgot Pinson, and definitely wasn't picturing him going to the draft. He starts over Williams (at SG if they get Knox, at SF if they don't).

C - Bradley, grad transfer (maybe), Manley/Huffman
PF - Maye, grad transfer (maybe), Huffman
SF - Knox (if lucky) or Pinson (if not), Williams/Robinson
SG - Pinson (if lucky) or Felton, Williams/Felton
PG - Berry, Woods

Still, that lineup is VERY dependent on getting a good grad transfer and Knox. It is closer to a middling ACC team than an upper-tier ACC team.

I say this as one who has been bullish on UNC's chances each of the last two offseasons. I felt folks were sleeping on their returning talent despite losing some key seniors. But they lose a LOT of experience and talent this summer, and don't have the depth to support it without some reinforcements like Knox and a grad transfer big man.

[WWBD]

Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.


Who hates UNC fans? Mostly we just mock them.
Hate for the program? Sure, that's justified. But the fanbase? The vocal ones are usually too dumb to engage with. The ones I know personally are smart and respectable and don't talk much because they know they don't have much to talk about these days.

[SlapTheFloor]

UNC went with a small lineup a few years ago, didn't they? I believe they were playing Tokoto at the 4 and McAdoo at the 5.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.

The reason I bring this up is based on the foul disparity between our two teams this season. Duke has the personnel and the awareness to take advantage of the way the game is being called.

Roy's offense focuses on inside/out play and being a good offensive rebounding team. To do this, UNC puts two bigs inside at all times. This clogs the lane and makes it more difficult for our guards/wings to penetrate and create. While we can score in bunches, this hurts us in a tight game because we become easier to guard. In the end, UNC does not get to the line to convert while the clock is stopped.

You have to take the good with the bad. UNC has had good success using this offensive system. I have read the opinions that it doesn't translate to the next level, but I think that is overblown. I think talent and fundamentals translate to the next level. UNC hasn't produced a solid NBA player in a handful of years. Is the system the problem or is it recruiting? I think it is recruiting. A stretch four would make a big difference in the UNC offense.

Having said that, I think UNC will have a different make up next year. I believe UNC will get Kevin Knox and I believe he will play the stretch 4. I also think a player like Jalek Felton will be the slashing 2 guard we need to create these foul opportunities. He has been compared to the Fox kid from UK. If Berry returns, I think we could be exciting to watch next year.

Interesting that you bring up handchecking. I didn't see UNC too much this year but I noticed that in the minimal playing time he got, Brandon Robinson was incredibly aggressive with his hands. He is the one JJ hit with the elbow and though I think that was clearly a foul on JJ, Robinson had it coming to him. If the refs are calling the game properly, he would foul out in a few minutes.

The flip side of that is despite his limited playing time this year, I think that Bradley will be an absolute stud for them next year once the log jam ahead of him clears.

[CDu]

UNC went with a small lineup a few years ago, didn't they? I believe they were playing Tokoto at the 4 and McAdoo at the 5.

Not with Tokoto they didn't.

2016: Meeks, Johnson, Hicks, James, and Maye played all but a handful of the frontcourt minutes
2015: Meeks, Johnson, Hicks, James, Simmons, and Hubert took the frontcourt minutes
2014: McAdoo, Johnson, Meeks, Hicks, and James

In 2013, they did play - briefly - a stretch with Hairston as the smallball 4. But even that year they had McAdoo, Johnson, James, Simmons, and Hubert getting over 80% of the frontcourt minutes. It was only kicking and screaming did Williams decide to play Hairston at the 4 in place of some of the minutes for James, Simmons, and Hubert (who were all terrible). And he didn't stick with it for very long.

If Williams commits to a true SF as a stretch 4 from the beginning of the season, it would be practically a first. That's not the way Dean Smith taught him to coach.

[UrinalCake]

In Duke's system the 1-4 are almost interchangeable. They can all attack off the dribble, create shots, and hit the three. It's hard to help because we spread the floor so well. So that leads to drawing a lot of fouls, especially this season when we haven't been as dependent on the three as in years past (though we still do shoot a lot of them).

In UNC's system they attack in transition, but in the half court the 2 and 3 guys aren't looking to get to the rim. They feed the post really well and make interior passes really well, and of course they kill it on the offensive boards. It's always their #1 option to get the ball inside. So I think that leads to a high offensive efficiency, but it does not allow them to draw a lot of fouls. In both the game in Cameron and the ACCT I think Duke was willing to let them hit high percentage two pointers and chose not to foul, with the understanding that our threes and free throws would offset that and also in the second half we would be more intentional about denying the entry passes.

[Kedsy]

Interesting that you bring up handchecking. I didn't see UNC too much this year but I noticed that in the minimal playing time he got, Brandon Robinson was incredibly aggressive with his hands. He is the one JJ hit with the elbow and though I think that was clearly a foul on JJ, Robinson had it coming to him. If the refs are calling the game properly, he would foul out in a few minutes.

You mean GA?

[CDu]

In Duke's system the 1-4 are almost interchangeable. They can all attack off the dribble, create shots, and hit the three. It's hard to help because we spread the floor so well. So that leads to drawing a lot of fouls, especially this season when we haven't been as dependent on the three as in years past (though we still do shoot a lot of them).

In UNC's system they attack in transition, but in the half court the 2 and 3 guys aren't looking to get to the rim. They feed the post really well and make interior passes really well, and of course they kill it on the offensive boards. It's always their #1 option to get the ball inside. So I think that leads to a high offensive efficiency, but it does not allow them to draw a lot of fouls. In both the game in Cameron and the ACCT I think Duke was willing to let them hit high percentage two pointers and chose not to foul, with the understanding that our threes and free throws would offset that and also in the second half we would be more intentional about denying the entry passes.

I'd modify this bolded statement. Duke doesn't have a system on offense, nor do we always have a common type of PF. Some years, it has been a dynamic, ballhandling big SF (Hill, Dunleavy, Singler, Ingram, Parker, Winslow, Tatum). In some years, it has been an athletic, perimeter-oriented big SF who doesn't have great ballhandling skills (Battier, Deng). In some years, it has been more of a true big, whether that be a shooting big (Kelly) or a purely defensive-minded big (Thomas).

Coach K modifies his approach each year depending upon the players he has. We have at times had a dominant lead guard (Hurley, Avery, Williams, Irving) and designed the offense around that player having the ball in his hands. At other times, we have had interchangeable parts at a variety of positions. It just depends on the squad.

But in relation to UNC, I would agree. They very much run a system offense. And I would agree that their half-court offense really doesn't cater to dynamic wing players.

[Indoor66]

But in relation to UNC, I would agree. They very much run a system offense. And I would agree that their half-court offense really doesn't cater to dynamic wing players.

Roy, like Dean, was born with a shoe horn in his hand. Everything has to fit into the System (or is forced into the System).

[English]

Interesting that you bring up handchecking. I didn't see UNC too much this year but I noticed that in the minimal playing time he got, Brandon Robinson was incredibly aggressive with his hands. He is the one JJ hit with the elbow and though I think that was clearly a foul on JJ, Robinson had it coming to him. If the refs are calling the game properly, he would foul out in a few minutes.

The flip side of that is despite his limited playing time this year, I think that Bradley will be an absolute stud for them next year once the log jam ahead of him clears.

Did I miss something?

[UNCfan]

UNC's recruiting is not dead and buried. Historically, it is down, but the teams success has been pretty solid the last couple years. Just because we haven't landed a 5* in a couple seasons, that doesn't mean we will not land Knox. If we land him, and I hear lots of good buzz recently, UNC could turn it around.

I also think its funny how you think Roy somehow "tricked" a 5* to stay with the program after he could have gone to the NBA, but Coach K gets a pass. Coach K will not take blame for Bolden and Jeter's lack of success. They were both top 10-15 recruits, right?

[mo.st.dukie]

Duke does a heck of a job of drawing off ball fouls too. Especially when we go into a lot of our set and run guys off of curl screens. Our guards do an exceelent job setting those up and cutting off of them that the opposing guard has to initiate contact. And yes, our guards will use that initial contact to create more contact and draw the foul.

[G man]

I think there is a big difference between Barnes and Bolden/ Jeter. That being said it is easy for a fan base to make absolute statements which we shouldn't. unc has had a great couple of years now way to argue that, but it also would be false to say that Carolina has been recruiting at the level Duke has been. You don't need 10 McDonald's all Americans to be good at basketball, but it sure doesn't hurt.

[Channing]

UNC's recruiting is not dead and buried. Historically, it is down, but the teams success has been pretty solid the last couple years. Just because we haven't landed a 5* in a couple seasons, that doesn't mean we will not land Knox. If we land him, and I hear lots of good buzz recently, UNC could turn it around.

I also think its funny how you think Roy somehow "tricked" a 5* to stay with the program after he could have gone to the NBA, but Coach K gets a pass. Coach K will not take blame for Bolden and Jeter's lack of success. They were both top 10-15 recruits, right?

I think the sentiment that a coach (any coach) "tricked" someone into staying is off base (certainly a coach of Roy or K's ilk). I think the difference between between JJackson and Bolden is that Jackson is still at UNC as a junior while Bolden is just finishing his freshman year. Neither had the freshman impact that was expected of them, and Jackson didn't have the sophomore year that was expected. Pinson is also a junior who (for whatever reason) just hasn't developed. On our side, watching Jeter for 1 minute of game time its obvious he just isn't (at this point) close to being an NBA player. Maybe it was a weak recruiting class, maybe he was overrated, or maybe he just hasn't developed. By and large, though, UNC players seem to stay at UNC for longer than other similarly ranked players stay at other schools.

[Jeffrey]

By and large, though, UNC players seem to stay at UNC for longer than other similarly ranked players stay at other schools.

That's because they're trying to get 30 credit hours before departing.

[Duke79UNLV77]

A member of the IC board posted a graph that showed how the hand check rule has affected UNC since it was introduced. However, his theory was the Ref's were calling more fouls on UNC because of the NCAA issues, which is nonsense. Guys like that are a big reason people hate UNC fans.

The reason I bring this up is based on the foul disparity between our two teams this season.

Duke on average has shot 22.57 free throws per game this year. UNC on average has shot 22.15. So, I disagree with the premise that Duke systemically has been significantly been better at drawing fouls this year. I know we had the advantage in our last 2 games with UNC, but much of the gap in free throw attempts from the last game came at the end when UNC was fouling on purpose. I also recall that we shot fewer free throws than our opponent in something like 8 out of 10 games that mostly covered our ACC win streak this year.

Where we do tend to draw fouls is by attacking the defense, particularly when we have a mismatch. On the other hand, certain players, like Hicks or Giles, tend to accumulate fouls quickly, perhaps from a combination of being out of position and reputation.

[CDu]

UNC's recruiting is not dead and buried. Historically, it is down, but the teams success has been pretty solid the last couple years. Just because we haven't landed a 5* in a couple seasons, that doesn't mean we will not land Knox. If we land him, and I hear lots of good buzz recently, UNC could turn it around.

I also think its funny how you think Roy somehow "tricked" a 5* to stay with the program after he could have gone to the NBA, but Coach K gets a pass. Coach K will not take blame for Bolden and Jeter's lack of success. They were both top 10-15 recruits, right?

To be clear, I have never said that UNC's recruiting is dead and buried. Nor did I say UNC would not land Knox. Nor did I say that UNC has "tricked" their 5-star recruits into staying. I simply said that UNC does not appear to be a good choice for a player who envisions being one-and-done, because the 5-stars that UNC gets don't ever do the one-and-done thing.

Bolden's lack of success is because he is the 3rd center (behind the #1 recruit and a 5th year senior starter) or a program that only plays 2 centers. On top of that, he had an injury in the Fall that put him behind schedule. Jeter was a top-15 recruit in a very weak big-man class who was not considered by anyone to be a one-and-done prospect. Last year he was the 3rd center behind a 5th-year senior captain (Plumlee) and a senior captain (Jefferson) and then the backup center once Jefferson got hurt. This year he was the 4th center behind a 5th-year senior captain, the #1 or #2 recruit in the country, and Bolden. And on top of that he had back surgery.

Bolden is an example of the one-and-done thing not working out for a Duke player. He is the only one though. Irving, Rivers, Parker, Okafor, Winslow, T. Jones, Ingram, and soon to be Tatum and Giles if he goes all worked out just fine with their one-and-done plans. Conversely, the only one-and-done in Roy Williams' tenure at UNC was Marvin Williams 12 years ago.

That's not intended to be a shot at UNC. That's just reality. UNC doesn't produce one-and-dones. That may or may not be what Knox is looking for. If it is, I would suggest that UK or Duke is the place to go (which, coincidentally enough, are the two schools currently considered most likely to get Knox). If not, UNC is a perfectly fine choice.

[UNCfan]

Barnes and McAdoo both could have left after freshmen year. Barnes has proved to be a solid NBA player. That criticism is more fair. JMM and Pinson were highly ranked recruits that were elite athletes. I do believe they were overrated by the scouts in the same way Bolden and Jeter are. I do not fault K or Roy for that.

Jackson was not physically ready for college and I believe his game was not ready. He may make a roster in the NBA, but I do not think he will ever be a starter in the league. He has improved during his time at UNC, and whether you agree or not, he is the ACC POY. Is that good development from year one to year three?

Perception is reality. If UNC gets Knox and he is successful his first year and then goes to the NBA, the perception can start change. UNC sets up perfect for his one year. If....he lives up to his ranking. With the NCAA issues looming, UNC could lose the entire 2017 class. I hope that doesn't happen.

[UNCfan]

That's not intended to be a shot at UNC. That's just reality. UNC doesn't produce one-and-dones. That may or may not be what Knox is looking for. If it is, I would suggest that UK or Duke is the place to go (which, coincidentally enough, are the two schools currently considered most likely to get Knox). If not, UNC is a perfectly fine choice.

Before Rivers, was Duke a OAD factory? That started in 2012? It can all change quickly.

I do not want to be a OAD factory. I enjoy the success of having an experienced team that can win consistently, year in and year out. Sure, I would like to sprinkle in an elite recruit that contributes immediately. I think we can all agree on this.

[CDu]

Before Rivers, was Duke a OAD factory? That started in 2012? It can all change quickly.

I do not want to be a OAD factory. I enjoy the success of having an experienced team that can win consistently, year in and year out. Sure, I would like to sprinkle in an elite recruit that contributes immediately. I think we can all agree on this.

Actually, Rivers was the fourth one-and-done at Duke. Maggette, Deng, and Irving preceded Rivers on that path. But, yes, prior to Irving, Duke had the same reputation that UNC has now. Absolutely, things could change.

But there is one glaring difference. When Duke got into the one-and-done business, there was only one other program heavily invested in the one and done busines (UK). And UK was still getting established under Calipari at that point. They had the 2010 team with Wall, Cousins, and Bledsoe, but that was their first super-class. Since then, UK has certainly led the way with one-and-dones, but Duke has very much established itself as a player in the one-and-done pecking order, having had at least one every year from 2011 to 2017 except for 2013.

So now, UNC is fighting the perception that they don't do one-and-dones AND the fact that there are multiple programs that have established a one-and-done path. That's tough to overcome. Whereas Duke was relatively quick to the party, the second or third team (behind UK and maybe UCLA) to dive in. UNC is REALLY late to the party.

Again, not saying that Knox won't be the start of the turning of the tide for UNC. Just that the perception that UNC is anti one-and-done is a pretty big cloud over the program's recruiting. As is the investigation.

[Tom B.]

Interesting that you bring up handchecking. I didn't see UNC too much this year but I noticed that in the minimal playing time he got, Brandon Robinson was incredibly aggressive with his hands. He is the one JJ hit with the elbow and though I think that was clearly a foul on JJ, Robinson had it coming to him. If the refs are calling the game properly, he would foul out in a few minutes.

The flip side of that is despite his limited playing time this year, I think that Bradley will be an absolute stud for them next year once the log jam ahead of him clears.

While we're on this subject, is it me, or does Justin Jackson hand-check like crazy? I mean, watch him when he's guarding someone on the perimeter. He usually has one hand -- and often has both hands -- on the guy. I'm kind of amazed he doesn't get in more foul trouble.

[FerryFor50]

Actually, Rivers was the fourth one-and-done at Duke. Maggette, Deng, and Irving preceded Rivers on that path. But, yes, prior to Irving, Duke had the same reputation that UNC has now. Absolutely, things could change.

But there is one glaring difference. When Duke got into the one-and-done business, there was only one other program heavily invested in the one and done busines (UK). And UK was still getting established under Calipari at that point. They had the 2010 team with Wall, Cousins, and Bledsoe, but that was their first super-class. Since then, UK has certainly led the way with one-and-dones, but Duke has very much established itself as a player in the one-and-done pecking order, having had at least one every year from 2011 to 2017 except for 2013.

So now, UNC is fighting the perception that they don't do one-and-dones AND the fact that there are multiple programs that have established a one-and-done path. That's tough to overcome. Whereas Duke was relatively quick to the party, the second or third team (behind UK and maybe UCLA) to dive in. UNC is REALLY late to the party.

Again, not saying that Knox won't be the start of the turning of the tide for UNC. Just that the perception that UNC is anti one-and-done is a pretty big cloud over the program's recruiting. As is the investigation.

Also, Elton Brand was a 2 and done.

One and done wasn't as much of a reality before Rivers for many schools because the NBA instituted its age limit in 2006. For Duke, they didn't start to embrace the one and done mentality until Rivers. They did recruit one and done players, however, such as John Wall. But those players chose Kentucky because Cal embraced that one and done mentality sooner.

Now that Duke has shown that one and done players can work there (and succeed by winning national titles, like Okafor, Winslow and Jones did), they're getting more 5* recruits.

[COYS]

Also, Elton Brand was a 2 and done.

One and done wasn't as much of a reality before Rivers for many schools because the NBA instituted its age limit in 2006. For Duke, they didn't start to embrace the one and done mentality until Rivers. They did recruit one and done players, however, such as John Wall. But those players chose Kentucky because Cal embraced that one and done mentality sooner.

Now that Duke has shown that one and done players can work there (and succeed by winning national titles, like Okafor, Winslow and Jones did), they're getting more 5* recruits.

If I'm not mistaken, it was widely expected that both Kyrie Irving and Harrison Barnes, Duke's top two recruiting targets for the HS c/o 2009, were likely one and done candidates. Of course, Barnes ended up at UNC. Interestingly, neither recruit worked out exactly as expected for either program. Kyrie got injured, of course, an only played 11 games. Barnes had a disappointing first half of the season for UNC, fell out of the top 10 of mock drafts, and then stayed a second year, joining Ed Davis and John Henson as projected one and done candidates that stayed an extra year or more.