NCAA West Regional Thread (Gonzaga, Arizona, FSU, WVU)

[pfrduke]

Vote on the west here.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Jesus. Gonzaga has Arizona, WVu, ND, and Purdue? That's tough

[gocanes0506]

And Florida State

[flyingdutchdevil]

No questions asked. Jesus.

Thank god we avoided this bracket.

[Doria]

No questions asked. Jesus.

Thank god we avoided this bracket.

Totally agree.

[Olympic Fan]

Totally disagree ... a cakewalk of a bracket -- for Arizona.

Notre Dame is the second best team in the entire region and if they have to match up with Gonzaga, it's about the worst matchup they can have -- a team with two bigs to pound them inside. They'd better shoot well that night.

FSU is a team that has slumped badly down the stretch.

[UT Dukie]

My bet: the "Conference of Champions" can't even get their highest seed past the first weekend somehow. And if the PAC zero does something, it's UCLA tearing up the South.

[53n206]

Whoever, if, beats Fla. State will lose the next game. The team will still be bruised and tired.

[burnspbesq]

Mark Few is desperately missing Dimantas Sabonis right about now. He's got nobody who can guard Markkanen.

Then again, neither does anyone else. Markkanen may not be the best freshman in the country, but he's the guy that nobody has an answer for. Imagine Harry Giles with range out to 23 feet.

Zags - Zona was one of the five best games of the regular season. It could be the best game of the tournament. I have no earthly idea who's going to win.

[mr shadow 008]

Totally disagree ... a cakewalk of a bracket -- for Arizona.

Notre Dame is the second best team in the entire region and if they have to match up with Gonzaga, it's about the worst matchup they can have -- a team with two bigs to pound them inside. They'd better shoot well that night.

FSU is a team that has slumped badly down the stretch.

You are selling WVU extremely short here. I've watched almost every WVU game this year as my brother is a senior there. That is probably the toughest defense in the country. Offense can be spotty at times but no where close to a team like UVA. This is a team that should have beaten Kansas twice had Frank Mason not gone off in the last two minutes of the second game. They also have beaten UVA, Baylor 2x, and Iowa state 2x. Think Louisvilles press but more intense. That defense is extremely hard to prepare for in a short period of time and they force a lot of turnovers even when teams have time to prepare.

[Troublemaker]

FSU is a team that has slumped badly down the stretch.

But how? They play their depth! :)

[ice-9]

I like Gonzaga to get to the Sweet 16. They've beaten up teams of the 16-seed variety with complete ease and should also be able to take care of Northwestern and Vanderbilt. But then they're going to get punched in the mouth by either WVU or ND (my guess is ND) and will reel into a loss. ND is under-seeded, which is bad luck for Gonzaga. Maryland is overrated and Xavier is missing their point guard, so I'm picking FSU to get beat by Arizona. I'm taking Arizona coming out of the location-friendly West.

I agree with Olympic Fan. This is about as good of a bracket as Arizona could've asked for.

[Wander]

You guys are underrating Gonzaga. Yes, their conference sucks, but all the available evidence that attempts to corrects for that factor still paints them as an extremely good team. And they won't have a problem beating Princeton in the Sweet 16.

I wouldn't be surprised at Arizona either - I'd have both teams in the Final Four if I could.

[uh_no]

You guys are underrating Gonzaga. Yes, their conference sucks, but all the available evidence that attempts to corrects for that factor still paints them as an extremely good team. And they won't have a problem beating Princeton in the Sweet 16.

I wouldn't be surprised at Arizona either - I'd have both teams in the Final Four if I could.

ND or WV will send them packing.

[Troublemaker]

You guys are underrating Gonzaga. Yes, their conference sucks, but all the available evidence that attempts to corrects for that factor still paints them as an extremely good team. And they won't have a problem beating Princeton in the Sweet 16.


The West region is the "Math vs Eye Test" region, in as stark a way as I've ever seen it.

The vast majority of the people across the country are going to write the Kenpom #20 team Arizona into the Final Four. Most Duke fans will be rooting for anybody but this #20 KenPom team to emerge from the West so Duke can have an easier Final Four opponent (if we make it there ourselves -- knock on wood), even it means that the KenPom #1 team has to make it to Glendale in place of this KenPom #20 team.

This season has been hilarious. Even though KenPom is still the most referenced analytics site for college basketball, college basketball fans have collectively decided that KenPom kinda sucks this year.

[jv001]

The West region is the "Math vs Eye Test" region, in as stark a way as I've ever seen it.

The vast majority of the people across the country are going to write the Kenpom #20 team Arizona into the Final Four. Most Duke fans will be rooting for anybody but this #20 KenPom team to emerge from the West so Duke can have an easier Final Four opponent (if we make it there ourselves -- knock on wood), even it means that the KenPom #1 team has to make it to Glendale in place of this KenPom #20 team.

This season has been hilarious. Even though KenPom is still the most referenced analytics site for college basketball, college basketball fans have collectively decided that KenPom kinda sucks this year.

KenPom has Duke rated #12 on his site and Clemson #35. I agree a lot of college basketball fans don't agree with his ranking this season. I won't go that far because he knows way more than I do. GoDuke!

[COYS]

The West region is the "Math vs Eye Test" region, in as stark a way as I've ever seen it.

The vast majority of the people across the country are going to write the Kenpom #20 team Arizona into the Final Four. Most Duke fans will be rooting for anybody but this #20 KenPom team to emerge from the West so Duke can have an easier Final Four opponent (if we make it there ourselves -- knock on wood), even it means that the KenPom #1 team has to make it to Glendale in place of this KenPom #20 team.

This season has been hilarious. Even though KenPom is still the most referenced analytics site for college basketball, college basketball fans have collectively decided that KenPom kinda sucks this year.

This region is also home to some of the most grossly under-seeded teams, according to KenPom. WVU is the #5 team in the entire country and yet is lurking as a 4 seed. St. Mary's is 14th yet is a 7 seed who would actually be favored against 2-seed Arizona in a second round matchup. This bracket has the potential to be upset-heavy.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This region is also home to some of the most grossly under-seeded teams, according to KenPom. WVU is the #5 team in the entire country and yet is lurking as a 4 seed. St. Mary's is 14th yet is a 7 seed who would actually be favored against 2-seed Arizona in a second round matchup. This bracket has the potential to be upset-heavy.

Also has some of the most over-seeded teams. Zona is a 2-seed, but ranked #20 in kenpom. FSU is the 3 seed, but ranked #19 in Kenpom.

[Indoor66]

Maybe KenPom is overrated?

[Reilly]

Rise of the Catholic schools: a quick count shows 12 of the 68 schools in the Men’s NCAA D1 tourney are Catholic, while there are zero Catholic schools in the 32-team NIT (it seems the NIT usually has a fair number).

And of course two of the four #1 seeds are Catholic. (cross-posted in East and West threads, in honor of Villanova and Gonzaga)

[CDu]

Pomeroy is pretty darn good. But a couple of areas in which he (and everyone else) struggle with are as follows:

1. Teams that beat up on inferior schedules (e.g., Gonzaga). Pomeroy has really tried to figure this one out, but has yet to do so. Gonzaga is almost certainly not one of the handful of best teams in the last 15 years, as Pomeroy's rating would suggest. In fact, they probably aren't the best team in their bracket. They beat Arizona on a neutral court, but Arizona didn't have their best player or their starting PG for that game. Their only other good wins are versus St Mary's (also overrated by Pomeroy for similar reasons), a close win over Florida (ditto) on a neutral court, and a neutral court close win over Iowa State. In reality, Gonzaga is probably closer to their RPI number (#8) than their Pomeroy rating (comfortably #1).

2. They don't account for injured players in games. This is already evident in the Gonzaga/Arizona game noted above, but it also is a main reason why Duke is underrated. We've had so many injuries that we have really only played a handful of games "whole." There was a stretch right before the first Clemson game, and then there has been the ACC tourney. So for about 10 games or so, we've been whole. Everywhere else, we were missing at least one of Tatum, Jefferson, Allen, Giles, or Coach K. So it's really hard to get a read on a team like us. Similarly, Arizona had their entire early-season schedule weakened by the absence of their best player. They are undoubtedly better now than they were in December when they didn't have Trier.

3. The lack of interconference matchups overall, and especially after Jan 1, makes it really hard to accurately assess teams across conferences. There just aren't enough data. This point is exacerbated by the two points above.

As such, you can get a reasonable approximation of the tier in which a team resides. But getting a true ordinal ranking? That's just not all that feasible given the limitations above. And that's true for basically all of the measures.

Pomeroy is one of the best, but even his data suffer severe limitations.

[Wander]

Pomeroy is pretty darn good. But a couple of areas in which he (and everyone else) struggle with are as follows:

1. Teams that beat up on inferior schedules (e.g., Gonzaga).

Going back through the years, it doesn't seem to me that Pomeroy systematically overrates Gonzaga, though:

6 seasons in which Gonzaga's seed and kenpom rating matched perfectly: 02, 03, 04, 08, 15, 17
5 seasons in which the kenpom ranking was overrated compared to seeding: 09 (2 seeds too low), 11 (2 seeds too low), 12 (1 seed too low), 14 (2 seeds too low), 16 (5 seeds too low)
5 seasons in which the seeding was overrated compared to kenpom ranking: 05 (4 seeds too high), 06 (6 seeds too high), 07 (1 seed too high), 10 (3 seeds too high), 13 (1 seed too high).

So, I'm not really sure that Pomeroy struggles with teams that play relatively easy schedules. Obviously these computer rankings aren't perfect, but I don't think "easy schedules" is a systematic flaw (I've always suspected that there's a flaw in his system that overrates really slow teams like UVA and Wisconsin, but have never bothered going through the years to check that).

[CDu]

Going back through the years, it doesn't seem to me that Pomeroy systematically overrates Gonzaga, though:

6 seasons in which Gonzaga's seed and kenpom rating matched perfectly: 02, 03, 04, 08, 15, 17
5 seasons in which the kenpom ranking was overrated compared to seeding: 09 (2 seeds too low), 11 (2 seeds too low), 12 (1 seed too low), 14 (2 seeds too low), 16 (5 seeds too low)
5 seasons in which the seeding was overrated compared to kenpom ranking: 05 (4 seeds too high), 06 (6 seeds too high), 07 (1 seed too high), 10 (3 seeds too high), 13 (1 seed too high).

So, I'm not really sure that Pomeroy struggles with teams that play relatively easy schedules. Obviously these computer rankings aren't perfect, but I don't think "easy schedules" is a systematic flaw (I've always suspected that there's a flaw in his system that overrates really slow teams like UVA and Wisconsin, but have never bothered going through the years to check that).

I should say it differently: easy schedules can be a systematic flaw. Anytime you have games in which much of the game is in blowout mode has a good deal of opportunity to deviate from the "true" efficiency margin. That could work for the team (if they keep playing while the other team gives up) or against (if they coast and the other team keeps fighting). This year, I think the Zags' results are inflated.

I'd also note that comparing seed to rating spot is not 100% useful either. The folks doing the seeding quite regularly whiff on the seeding. And if there is statistical bias, that bias is likely to be in a similar direction as the seeding.

[gam7]

One interesting thing in this region is that the two most successful coaches never to have made the Final Four are here (Few, Miller). More likely than not (at least according to fivethirtyeight), one of them will drop that title. And with absolute certainty (according to me), at least one of them will again fail to reach the Final Four with a very strong team. Hoping it's Few who makes it, especially after Miller's petty, vindictive timeout against UCLA (not to mention it will be the opponent of the winner of the East Region).

"When they go low, we go high." - Michelle Obama
"When they go low, we go equally low." - Sean Miller

[OldPhiKap]

Ganzaga has been the Lucy-pulling-the-football to my Charlie Brown bracket many a year. One day they'll get there and perhaps this is the year. Until they do it, though, color me skeptical.

Arizona is legit.

[rasputin]

Rise of the Catholic schools: a quick count shows 12 of the 68 schools in the Men’s NCAA D1 tourney are Catholic, while there are zero Catholic schools in the 32-team NIT (it seems the NIT usually has a fair number).

And of course two of the four #1 seeds are Catholic. (cross-posted in East and West threads, in honor of Villanova and Gonzaga)

One of my favorite trivia questions: (and no fair looking it up):

Name the seven Catholic schools that have won the men's NCAA Division I basketball tournament.

[CDu]

One of my favorite trivia questions: (and no fair looking it up):

Name the seven Catholic schools that have won the men's NCAA Division I basketball tournament.

I have six: Georgetown, Holy Cross, Villanova, Marquette, San Francisco, Loyola. Trying to think of the seventh.

Oh yeah: La Salle.

[Lunchab1es]

Maybe KenPom is overrated?

Kenpom is great, but its over-estimation of slowtempo teams like UVA is well documented. In Arizona's case, I can't help but wonder if his formula isn't taking into account the difference in teams performance with and without Allonzo Trier

[chriso]

I live out west and have seen them play. The Zags are for real. But they really need to join the Pac 12 already. Don't think they will because football is the money sport I hear. They have several ultra athletic transfers. And they did make the Elite 8 2 years back but lost to a certain team...Of course now that I post this they'll probably go out early. But this year's team seems different. My second favorite team for sure. :)

[CDu]

Kenpom is great, but its over-estimation of slowtempo teams like UVA is well documented. In Arizona's case, I can't help but wonder if his formula isn't taking into account the difference in teams performance with and without Allonzo Trier

It most certainly isn't taking into account the absence of Trier. That's not how Pomeroy's formula works. It is a big limitation with both Pomeroy's assessment of Arizona (missing Trier for over 1/3 of the season, missing their PG as well for the Gonzaga game) and Duke (lots of games missed and hindered with injuries.

[CDu]

I live out west and have seen them play. The Zags are for real. But they really need to join the Pac 12 already. Don't think they will because football is the money sport I hear. They have several ultra athletic transfers. And they did make the Elite 8 2 years back but lost to a certain team...Of course now that I post this they'll probably go out early. But this year's team seems different. My second favorite team for sure. :)

I definitely think Gonzaga is good. I just don't think they're #1 seed good. I think they should be a low 2 seed. Still a top-10 team. Just not top-5.

[chriso]

I definitely think Gonzaga is good. I just don't think they're #1 seed good. I think they should be a low 2 seed. Still a top-10 team. Just not top-5.

True. They need a tougher schedule for sure. But man they are a complete team.

[Wander]

It most certainly isn't taking into account the absence of Trier. That's not how Pomeroy's formula works. It is a big limitation with both Pomeroy's assessment of Arizona (missing Trier for over 1/3 of the season, missing their PG as well for the Gonzaga game) and Duke (lots of games missed and hindered with injuries.

I think you're overplaying the injury factor in Arizona's ranking. ESPN's BPI system, which attempts to account for missing players, has Arizona even lower than kenpom does. The bigger factor might be Arizona losing by 5 billion points to Oregon. Of course, people may have differing views as to whether that game is an outlier that should be discarded or a warning sign.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I definitely think Gonzaga is good. I just don't think they're #1 seed good. I think they should be a low 2 seed. Still a top-10 team. Just not top-5.

I assume based on how good the Zags are right, and not their body of work (wins, etc)? If so, I agree. If not, then I disagree. Zags deserve to be a 1-seed, but they aren't as good as the other 3 teams.

[CDu]

I assume based on how good the Zags are right, and not their body of work (wins, etc)? If so, I agree. If not, then I disagree. Zags deserve to be a 1-seed, but they aren't as good as the other 3 teams.

I think both in terms of how good they are and their resume they are overseeded. They are hanging their hat heavily on a win over Arizona. But that was Arizona without Trier and without their starting PG. Aside from that, they have a neutral court win over a 4 seed (UF) and a 5 seed (ISU) and wins over an overrated St Mary's team. And that's it. I think that's a resume more like a 2 seed or 3 seed and not a 1 seed.

[The Gordog]

I live out west and have seen them play. The Zags are for real. But they really need to join the Pac 12 already. Don't think they will because football is the money sport I hear. They have several ultra athletic transfers. And they did make the Elite 8 2 years back but lost to a certain team...Of course now that I post this they'll probably go out early. But this year's team seems different. My second favorite team for sure. :)

Pfff. My second favorite team changes twice a week. ;-)

[sagegrouse]

One of my favorite trivia questions: (and no fair looking it up):

Name the seven Catholic schools that have won the men's NCAA Division I basketball tournament.

DePaul (Mikan), Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, LaSalle, Marquette and Holy Cross (Cousy)???? Well, at least I got five right -- I'm guessing on St. John's and Holy Cross (also back in the day, the NIT was a bigger deal than the NCAA). I also was thinking of St. Bonnie's.

[CDu]

DePaul (Mikan), Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, LaSalle, Marquette and Holy Cross (Cousy)???? Well, at least I got five right -- I'm guessing on St. John's and Holy Cross (also back in the day, the NIT was a bigger deal than the NCAA). I also was thinking of St. Bonnie's.

DePaul and St John's didn't win one. It's Loyola and San Francisco that did.

Loyola, San Francisco, Holy Cross, La Salle, Marquette, Georgetown, and Villanova.

San Francisco is the tricky one as I suspect most don't realize it is a Jesuit university.

[mr. synellinden]

It most certainly isn't taking into account the absence of Trier. That's not how Pomeroy's formula works. It is a big limitation with both Pomeroy's assessment of Arizona (missing Trier for over 1/3 of the season, missing their PG as well for the Gonzaga game) and Duke (lots of games missed and hindered with injuries.

Why doesn't Pomeroy produce season ratings and last 10 game ratings? I would be very curious to see how teams like Duke, Arizona stack up now compared to earlier in the season when they were affected by injuries.

[CDu]

Why doesn't Pomeroy produce season ratings and last 10 game ratings? I would be very curious to see how teams like Duke, Arizona stack up now compared to earlier in the season when they were affected by injuries.

I don't think Pomeroy would put much stock in "last 10" analyses. The season is already a really small sample size, bordering on too small to make confident assessments. Making it even smaller not make for good statistics.

[pfrduke]

It most certainly isn't taking into account the absence of Trier. That's not how Pomeroy's formula works. It is a big limitation with both Pomeroy's assessment of Arizona (missing Trier for over 1/3 of the season, missing their PG as well for the Gonzaga game) and Duke (lots of games missed and hindered with injuries.

It's not directly taking it into account, but I believe one of the recent tweaks to the formula is to more heavily weight more recent games, which means the games with Trier are making more of the rankings than the games without. Not perfect, but it's almost impossible to perfectly account for an injury when putting something like this together.

[Troublemaker]

It's not directly taking it into account, but I believe one of the recent tweaks to the formula is to more heavily weight more recent games, which means the games with Trier are making more of the rankings than the games without. Not perfect, but it's almost impossible to perfectly account for an injury when putting something like this together.

Incidentally, pfr, why did you make the polls anonymous? It's not a big deal, but I like seeing how people vote. And we should be able to lightly joke with each other about our bad predictions. (I've made a ton over the years, and in the ACC Wagering contest, I was one of the first to be disqualified for going too far into the hole. No big deal.)

[gotoguy]

I have six: Georgetown, Holy Cross, Villanova, Marquette, San Francisco, Loyola. Trying to think of the seventh.

Oh yeah: La Salle.

Ramble on...my other alma mater. In that run to the title in '63 the Ramblers sprinted past Duke in the semi's and defeated defending champ Cincinnati in the final in OT

[Spanarkel]

Keanu is the son of former NC State player Kendal "Tiny" Pinder, who, along with Tony Warren, was charged with changing the price tags on underwear, prompting a literal outpouring of "support(ers)" from Duke fans at a 1979(I believe)game.

[chriso]

Pfff. My second favorite team changes twice a week. ;-)

:) That's funny. I'm new so it took me a few minutes to realize you meant whoever UNC was playing. It's not like I get mad if the Zags lose or anything. I don't get nervous when they play. They are a distant second. :cool:

[pfrduke]

Incidentally, pfr, why did you make the polls anonymous? It's not a big deal, but I like seeing how people vote. And we should be able to lightly joke with each other about our bad predictions. (I've made a ton over the years, and in the ACC Wagering contest, I was one of the first to be disqualified for going too far into the hole. No big deal.)

It wasn't on purpose. Believe it or not, I set them up on an iPad while on a plane, so clearly didn't perfectly capture all the various settings. Will see if I can fix it.

[mgtr]

I have six: Georgetown, Holy Cross, Villanova, Marquette, San Francisco, Loyola. Trying to think of the seventh.

Oh yeah: La Salle.

Interesting. La Salle was the only one I knew for sure. As a lad, the Saturday double feature always had "News of the day," often featuring Tom Gola of La Salle. Guess I was at an impressionable age.

[MChambers]

Keanu is the son of former NC State player Kendal "Tiny" Pinder, who, along with Tony Warren, was charged with changing the price tags on underwear, prompting a literal outpouring of "support(ers)" from Duke fans at a 1979(I believe)game.

I think it was in 1978, the year Foster took Duke to the finals. I remember some Cameron Crazie getting one of State's basketballs and slipping some women's underwear over it and bouncing it back out onto the court.

[weezie]

AZ, acting dopey. But Lauri Markinnen (sic) forcing them to hold on...

[Wander]

It's such a shame that we won't be able to tell how much overrated Gonzaga would lose to a healthy Arizona by, since apparently they only beat Arizona in December because of injuries.

[CDu]

It's such a shame that we won't be able to tell how much overrated Gonzaga would lose to a healthy Arizona by, since apparently they only beat Arizona in December because of injuries.

I recognize your snark, but such is the way of the world in a single-elimination tournament. The best teams don't always win the games.

[vick]

I recognize your snark, but such is the way of the world in a single-elimination tournament. The best teams don't always win the games.

Sure, but Arizona injury or no Gonzaga was clearly a better team all season. It's frankly not even particularly close.

[CDu]

Sure, but Arizona injury or no Gonzaga was clearly a better team all season. It's frankly not even particularly close.

I don't see how one can say that given the teams' relative schedules.

Arizona played Gonzaga close without their starting backcourt.

Think we beat UNC without, say, Kennard and Jones?

[vick]

I don't see how one can say that given the teams' relative schedules.

Arizona played Gonzaga close without their starting backcourt.

Think we beat UNC without, say, Kennard and Jones?

Not basing it on head-to-head. Gonzaga's schedule nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be. Going 35-1 against the teams they've played is harder than 32-5 against Arizona's schedule though--I'd be stunned to find a strength of record analysis suggesting otherwise.

[CDu]

Not basing it on head-to-head. Gonzaga's schedule nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be. Going 35-1 against the teams they've played is harder than 32-5 against Arizona's schedule though--I'd be stunned to find a strength of record analysis suggesting otherwise.

Two of those four pre-tourney losses were without Trier (the Gonzaga loss and an early-season loss to a full-strength Butler team). The other two were a road loss to Oregon and a loss to a top-10 team in UCLA.

They laid an egg last night. But they have more impressive wins (neutral-site wins over Oregon and UCLA; road win over UCLA; home win over Oregon) and did so against a tougher schedule than Gonzaga. They had 7 REALLY difficult games on their schedule, and they went 4-3 in those games. Gonzaga had - arguably - one REALLY difficult game, winning over UF. They then beat lesser but still good teams in St Mary's and a depleted Arizona. The rest of both teams' schedules were pretty darn bad.

Gonzaga deserves credit for beating Florida on a neutral court and for not losing to a severely-depleted Arizona team. I think they are really good, just deserving of a 2 seed. I think they are no better than Arizona. And I definitely don't think the teams' records - upon actual inspection - suggest that Gonzaga was the clearly superior team.

[Wander]

I recognize your snark, but such is the way of the world in a single-elimination tournament. The best teams don't always win the games.

I'm mostly just having some fun and agree with the nature of the single elimination tournament. But considering that the computer numbers have consistently had Gonzaga 20 spots higher than Arizona throughout the season, AND that Gonzaga has advanced farther in the tournament, AND that Gonzaga beat Arizona head to head even without full strength, it's time to admit that the simplest explanation is just that Gonzaga is the better team.

[CDu]

I'm mostly just having some fun and agree with the nature of the single elimination tournament. But considering that the computer numbers have consistently had Gonzaga 20 spots higher than Arizona throughout the season, AND that Gonzaga has advanced farther in the tournament, AND that Gonzaga beat Arizona head to head even without full strength, it's time to admit that the simplest explanation is just that Gonzaga is the better team.

Arizona's ratings have been weighed down all season by not having Trier for almost half of it. Arizona lost to Gonzaga because Arizona didn't have Trier and their starting PG.

Arizona lost a game that they shouldn't have lost last night. Again - single elimination tournament. Things happen.

[vick]

Two of those four pre-tourney losses were without Trier (the Gonzaga loss and an early-season loss to a full-strength Butler team). The other two were a road loss to Oregon and a loss to a top-10 team in UCLA.

They laid an egg last night. But they have more impressive wins (neutral-site wins over Oregon and UCLA; road win over UCLA; home win over Oregon) and did so against a tougher schedule than Gonzaga. They had 7 REALLY difficult games on their schedule, and they went 4-3 in those games. Gonzaga had - arguably - one REALLY difficult game, winning over UF. They then beat lesser but still good teams in St Mary's and a depleted Arizona. The rest of both teams' schedules were pretty darn bad.

Gonzaga deserves credit for beating Florida on a neutral court and for not losing to a severely-depleted Arizona team. I think they are really good, just deserving of a 2 seed. I think they are no better than Arizona. And I definitely don't think the teams' records - upon actual inspection - suggest that Gonzaga was the clearly superior team.

I think you're putting too much stock in these "impressive" wins. Gonzaga's win at St. Mary's was likely harder than winning at home over Oregon. Lest you think that this is some weird Kenpom quirk, plug in a couple of these games into, e.g., Massey's estimator. Just for giggles, here's how he would predict Duke would do:

away vs. St. Mary's: 46% chance of winning
home vs. Oregon: 60% chance of winning

Sure, if you look for reasons to confirm Arizona is better, you can point to Trier (currently listed as a second-round draft pick on NBADraft, though I don't follow the draft very closely). But the more likely explanation is that polls and computers are right that Gonzaga is better.

[Wander]

Arizona's ratings have been weighed down all season by not having Trier for almost half of it.

ESPN's computer rankings attempt to take into account the effect of injuries, and they actually have a slightly higher gap (20 spots) between Gonzaga and Arizona than kenpom does (18 spots).

Again, the simplest, more direct explanation is just that Gonzaga is better than Arizona. Maybe not by a lot, but better. I don't know why that's so difficult to believe.

[CDu]

I think you're putting too much stock in these "impressive" wins. Gonzaga's win at St. Mary's was likely harder than winning at home over Oregon. Lest you think that this is some weird Kenpom quirk, plug in a couple of these games into, e.g., Massey's estimator. Just for giggles, here's how he would predict Duke would do:

away vs. St. Mary's: 46% chance of winning
home vs. Oregon: 60% chance of winning

Sure, if you look for reasons to confirm Arizona is better, you can point to Trier (currently listed as a second-round draft pick on NBADraft, though I don't follow the draft very closely). But the more likely explanation is that polls and computers are right that Gonzaga is better.

Even if you remove Oregon, they still have three more impressive wins: @UCLA and neutral site wins over Oregon and UCLA.

And I don't see any reasonable argument that Trier wasn't a HUGE part of why they struggled early on. He only averaged 17.2 ppg, shooting 46% from the field 39% from 3, and averaged 5 rpg. He was a stud, and one of the best players in the country.

That, and not having their PG against Gonzaga made a big difference.

[vick]

Arizona's ratings have been weighed down all season by not having Trier for almost half of it. Arizona lost to Gonzaga because Arizona didn't have Trier and their starting PG.

Arizona lost a game that they shouldn't have lost last night. Again - single elimination tournament. Things happen.

For what it's worth, in Kenpom, Arizona was ranked #15 going into the game at UCLA, Trier's first game back. They're #18 today. Computers aren't underrating (if they are) Arizona because Trier was out, they're doing it because of a number of less-than-impressive performances against a Pac-12 that is widely perceived to be mediocre outside of the top three teams.

[CDu]

ESPN's computer rankings attempt to take into account the effect of injuries, and they actually have a slightly higher gap (20 spots) between Gonzaga and Arizona than kenpom does (18 spots).

Again, the simplest, more direct explanation is just that Gonzaga is better than Arizona. Maybe not by a lot, but better. I don't know why that's so difficult to believe.

I don't take anything by ESPN very seriously.

I'm not saying Gonzaga is not good. I think they are definitely a top-10 team. I just think that Arizona was ALSO a top-10 team, and every bit as good as Gonzaga.