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pfrduke
03-12-2017, 04:31 PM
Vote on the east here.

fuse
03-12-2017, 04:39 PM
Paired with overall #1, South Carolina teams in Greenville,Baylor, Wojo's Marquette and Semi's SMU team.

Tough, tough bracket.

dukebluesincebirth
03-12-2017, 04:39 PM
We got screwed

TKG
03-12-2017, 04:40 PM
1) Villanova
2) Duke
3) Baylor
4) FL

Tough draw for us having to go thru Baylor and Villanova to get to the FF.

Interesting possibilities: Duke vs. Marquette in the Round of 32 and a potential match up with SMU (Semi) in the Sweet 16.

Owen Meany
03-12-2017, 04:40 PM
Vote on the east here.

Duke vs SC 2nd round in Greenville, SC. Or versus Wojo.

CDu
03-12-2017, 04:41 PM
Paired with overall #1, South Carolina teams in Greenville,Baylor, Wojo's Marquette and Semi's SMU team.

Tough, tough bracket.

Just one SC school. Troy (Alabama) and Marquette (Wisconsin) are not from SC.

And we would only face at most one of Baylor and SMU.

gocanes0506
03-12-2017, 04:41 PM
Man to draw SC in SC is tough. Not afraid of Marquette though.

Udaman
03-12-2017, 04:41 PM
We just got totally screwed. This means we were lowest 2 seed. Baylor is best 3 seed and SMU as a 6 seed? They are ranked 12th in the country.

dairedevil
03-12-2017, 04:42 PM
The selection committee couldn't figure out a way to add more drama with a Northwestern matchup, too? ;)

This looks rough. It will be interesting to see the other brackets.

curtis325
03-12-2017, 04:42 PM
Just win, baby. Don't worry about the bracket.

tbyers11
03-12-2017, 04:42 PM
Paired with overall #1, South Carolina teams in Greenville,Baylor, Wojo's Marquette and Semi's SMU team.

Tough, tough bracket.

South Carolina in Greenville sucks but maybe Wojo beats them.

Tough bracket with Nova on top but Baylor is preferable to than Oregon or UCLA as 3 seed

Udaman
03-12-2017, 04:42 PM
And a road game against South Carolina.

dukelion
03-12-2017, 04:43 PM
On the flip side Nova can't be too pleased.

Ultrarunner
03-12-2017, 04:43 PM
Duke vs SC 2nd round in Greenville, SC. Or versus Wojo.

It won't bother the team to play SC in Greenville. This team does not slump like many when they leave home.

Udaman
03-12-2017, 04:45 PM
We also have the best 8 seed in Wisconsin. And Kansas who gagged in first round gets Louisville? That means they were ranked ahead of us. That's nuts!

OZZIE4DUKE
03-12-2017, 04:46 PM
Duke wins. We're in the middle of a 10 game winning streak! LGD GTHc!

CDu
03-12-2017, 04:47 PM
We also have the best 8 seed in Wisconsin. And Kansas who gagged in first round gets Louisville? That means they were ranked ahead of us. That's nuts!

It does not mean that. Regional preferences matter. They don't seed on an S curve.

grossbus
03-12-2017, 04:47 PM
Regionals in this Garden. That would be OK. :cool:

InSpades
03-12-2017, 04:47 PM
As #1 overall seed... you can't be happy seeing Wisconsin as your #8 and Duke as your #2.

flyingdutchdevil
03-12-2017, 04:50 PM
We didn't get screwed. I'll take Baylor. We avoid Oregon, Louisville, and Kansas. I like it.

DUKIECB
03-12-2017, 04:53 PM
As #1 overall seed... you can't be happy seeing Wisconsin as your #8 and Duke as your #2.I agree. Quit complaining about the bracket. Its not like you have to play every team, just the one in front of you. And if we can't beat SC wherever we play them, we don't deserve anything anyway.

kako
03-12-2017, 04:54 PM
K's attitude has always been that seeds/rankings/etc. don't matter. You have to beat the best to be the best.

What they did get: East Regional, play close to home, start 1st round on Friday. To me, they got everything they could have asked for (especially considering where Duke just a week ago). And if not getting a #1 seed ticks them off, well that's more fire in the belly.

The competition to get to the FF seems to be Nova and UVA. Nova because they are really good, and UVA because they are very familiar with Duke and won't have to game plan. Baylor could also be tough. But no matter, teams never know who they will play until the round is over. Upsets could happen. Duke just needs to continue their roll.

DeBlueDevil
03-12-2017, 04:59 PM
I agree with FlyingDutch on this one. I've watched both South Carolina and Baylor closely throughout the year and while they are good teams they both struggle offensively. I just think they're an easier road than Villanova who will have to go through Wisconsin or Virginia Tech and then take on a Virginia team they only beat on a last second tip or a scrappy and capbable veteran Florida team.

NYBri
03-12-2017, 04:59 PM
We didn't get screwed. I'll take Baylor. We avoid Oregon, Louisville, and Kansas. I like it.

Agree with FDD. We just went through a tougher road in four days and took the crown. This is very doable.

Number Six!!!!! :cool:

CDu
03-12-2017, 05:01 PM
I like this region. I like the way we match up with these teams. I like our half better than Nova's half.

Wander
03-12-2017, 05:02 PM
We also have the best 8 seed in Wisconsin.

Is this a joke? You understand we can't play Wisconsin until the Elite 8, right? In fact, having the best 8 seed is easily a net benefit to the 2 seed in the same region, because it increases the chances that the 1 seed doesn't make it to the Elite 8.

chriso
03-12-2017, 05:02 PM
K's attitude has always been that seeds/rankings/etc. don't matter. You have to beat the best to be the best.

What they did get: East Regional, play close to home, start 1st round on Friday. To me, they got everything they could have asked for (especially considering where Duke just a week ago). And if not getting a #1 seed ticks them off, well that's more fire in the belly.

The competition to get to the FF seems to be Nova and UVA. Nova because they are really good, and UVA because they are very familiar with Duke and won't have to game plan. Baylor could also be tough. But no matter, teams never know who they will play until the round is over. Upsets could happen. Duke just needs to continue their roll.

Bring em on!!! We got this!

gocanes0506
03-12-2017, 05:04 PM
Tough to know that a state loss at home may have kept us from a cake walk into the elite eight to replace UNX as the south's number 1. Just play what is in front of us now.

Utley
03-12-2017, 05:04 PM
Is this a joke? You understand we can't play Wisconsin until the Elite 8, right? In fact, having the best 8 seed is easily a net benefit to the 2 seed in the same region, because it increases the chances that the 1 seed doesn't make it to the Elite 8.

I think that what's they were saying

dragoneye776
03-12-2017, 05:05 PM
I like our draw. Lunardi was projecting UCLA as our 3 seed but I'm happy we got Baylor instead. We are also on the opposite side of the overall bracket from UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC and Louisville. I'll take Villanova, Gonzaga, and Arizona over those others.

Danke Shane
03-12-2017, 05:10 PM
So we potentially face South Carolina in South Carolina, with UNC in the same arena to boot? I think we might have had more of a pro-Duke crowd for our UNC away game this year.

gofurman
03-12-2017, 05:11 PM
I like our draw. Lunardi was projecting UCLA as our 3 seed but I'm happy we got Baylor instead. We are also on the opposite side of the overall bracket from UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC and Louisville. I'll take Villanova, Gonzaga, and Arizona over those others.

Just remember.. many teams will not be there once a few games are played. Lets look at Troy. And as fans we can look at USC and Marquette.

USC has NO offense. None. Like a lesser UVA to be honest. Great D - top 5.. but just no offense. What can someone tell me of Marquette?? And I am not overlooking Troy at all.

BigZ
03-12-2017, 05:12 PM
Villanova got screwed

subzero02
03-12-2017, 05:14 PM
I like our draw. Lunardi was projecting UCLA as our 3 seed but I'm happy we got Baylor instead. We are also on the opposite side of the overall bracket from UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC and Louisville. I'll take Villanova, Gonzaga, and Arizona over those others.

Very good point and I completely agree. One game at a time. The coaching staff has a bit of experience playing in this thing. NOW, does anyone know anything about Troy?

Skitzle
03-12-2017, 05:14 PM
Duke vs SC 2nd round in Greenville, SC. Or versus Wojo.

We Beat Virginia at Virginia. Not concerned about SC at SC :)

curtis325
03-12-2017, 05:16 PM
So we potentially face South Carolina in South Carolina, with UNC in the same arena to boot? I think we might have had more of a pro-Duke crowd for our UNC away game this year.

Duke is better than Carolina. Both of them.

NashvilleDevil
03-12-2017, 05:17 PM
I'll take it. After what this team just did I am not scared of any of the potential teams Duke has to play. Duke v. Baylor in MSG? I'll take that over Duke v. Baylor in Houston 7 years ago. And it's not like Duke hasn't been in arenas where the entire place is against them, I don't know anything about South Carolina but the SEC is not the ACC. Of course Duke will get everyone's best shot but his team is ready. K knows this team has a chance to be one of the special ones.

ipatent
03-12-2017, 05:18 PM
Anyone have a link to the full brackets?

wilson
03-12-2017, 05:19 PM
Anyone have a link to the full brackets?http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

91devil
03-12-2017, 05:19 PM
I think Troy had to win several games in their Conference Tournament. Kudos to them for that.

Computer numbers (RPI) indicate they are like Elon (common opponent). Decent offense, pretty bad defense. They shoot a ton of three-pointers.

pfrduke
03-12-2017, 05:20 PM
For the 1 overall, Villanova did not draw an easy road. Both Kansas' and UNC's is easier.

MrPoon
03-12-2017, 05:22 PM
I'm at a sports bar with the sound off so I can't hear what the "experts" are saying. I don't have a problem with us as a 2 and I don't mind being in the east. I just cant make sense of UNC as a 1. What are the signature wins they can point to? A road win against a ranked opponent? A neutral site win against a ranked team? Several wins in the ACC tournament?

A week ago a four seed was possible. I'll take the 2, just don't get UNC as a 1. I have a bias against Gonzaga too but I won't vent on that here.

We control our destiny and I love the way we are playing. Get some rest (hope Amile's shoulder isn't anything), survive and advance. Sorry Villanova.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-12-2017, 05:22 PM
Since 1985, in 9 appearances in the East Region, Duke is 32-2 with 7 trips to the Final Four.

I like our chances.

curtis325
03-12-2017, 05:23 PM
You heard it here. Opponents will be: Troy, Marquette, SMU, UVA. See you at the Final Four.

DBFAN
03-12-2017, 05:23 PM
Not too upset with our draw, what is frustrating is trying to figure out how UNC got what they did. I mean let's be honest, they could just bring the JV/Freshman team in for the first weekend. Grant it UK and UCLA are in same region but wouldn't have to face but 1 of them, and not until 4th game

Les Grossman
03-12-2017, 05:24 PM
Will be a great match. Looking forward to knocking off the defending champs

azzefkram
03-12-2017, 05:25 PM
I can't complain about this. Baylor and Nova in NYC is way more preferable than UCLA and Kentucky in Memphis. Imagine the hordes of mouth breathers that would descend upon Memphis for Duke-UK. Any Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight game is going to be tough. I'd rather have a tough game in the Garden.

gocanes0506
03-12-2017, 05:28 PM
The tournament chairman just said we were a four to start the week. I didn't hear another reason why Duke isn't over unc outside of they weren't a 1 seed on Wednesday

DukieInKansas
03-12-2017, 05:29 PM
Will be a great match. Looking forward to knocking off the defending champs

I'm just looking forward to beating Troy.

TKG
03-12-2017, 05:31 PM
Mark Hollis, AD @ Michigan St and Selection Committee chair just mentioned that the Committee had Duke as a 4 on Wednesday. By winning the ACCT and beating three Top 25 teams along the way we moved to the 2 line.

CDu
03-12-2017, 05:31 PM
The head of the committee just admitted that they didn't wait to start seeding. In fact, they had 1 seeds as of Wednesday, and never compared Duke with UNC.

If so, that is absurd. Why was UNC - with no impressive wins away from home - locked in as a 1 seed when their resume was not clearly better than Duke's?

But, oh well. Our half of the bracket isn't quite as easy as UNC's, but it isn't awful. And I like our chances of having an easier Elite-8 matchup than UNC if we get that far.

Let's go get it!

Atlanta Duke
03-12-2017, 05:32 PM
The tournament chairman just said we were a four to start the week. I didn't hear another reason why Duke isn't over unc outside of they weren't a 1 seed on Wednesday

Lunardi was correct when he said the 4 #1 seeds were locked early in the week - selection committee chair confirmed it

kako
03-12-2017, 05:33 PM
Imagine the hordes of mouth breathers that would descend upon Memphis for Duke-UK.

Too funny... that's what UNC now gets...

gocanes0506
03-12-2017, 05:35 PM
Lunardi was correct when he said the 4 #1 seeds were locked early in the week - selection committee chair confirmed it

Pretty sad. Not even compared to unx. Pathetic an easy acc schedule for and our bad state loss at home cost us a chance to be compared to unx's resume.

fisheyes
03-12-2017, 05:35 PM
I like the fact that we get a Friday-Sunday regional to start and if we are lucky enough to win, another Friday-Sunday regional.

More importantly if we win out the first weekend we get to play at MSG! That's huge.

I am thrilled with this team's performance of late.

We will be peaking April 3rd!!!

Go Duke!!!

duke4ever19
03-12-2017, 05:36 PM
Overall, I like the 2-seeds better than the 1-seeds.

Also, "scrubbing process?"

Brockt10
03-12-2017, 05:43 PM
They actually questioned the chair pretty heavily and provided indisputable evidence for Duke over Unc. You could tell he was nervous and got the feeling like he had no good answer. He basically said the 4 one seeds were locked in and they didn't have time after the tournaments. Pretty disappointing but it is what it is.

NYBri
03-12-2017, 05:43 PM
Just Win Six! :cool:

gofurman
03-12-2017, 05:44 PM
Lunardi was correct when he said the 4 #1 seeds were locked early in the week - selection committee chair confirmed it

that's what they have said for years... the bracket is somewhat locked in before weekend tourney results.. they have to be? so as to be prepared for releasing bracket on Sunday. So moving from a 4 to a 2 is actually big considering the committee tries to be pretty finished with everything my mid-week this week. I have just noticed this in the past. Weekend winners don't move as much (up or down) as you might think. And I get it. They want to see what you did for 25 games. The weekend is just a minor addition which usually goes up or down a line. Rarely do you move two lines as we did

gofurman
03-12-2017, 05:46 PM
They actually questioned the chair pretty heavily and provided indisputable evidence for Duke over Unc. You could tell he was nervous and got the feeling like he had no good answer. He basically said the 4 one seeds were locked in and they didn't have time after the tournaments. Pretty disappointing but it is what it is.
Yep, I have noticed this. They like to be done early. I read this elsewhere a while back - esp when ACC finished on Sunday.
But we just play who we play. Honestly I don't think the timing thing would be that hard.. you just say "if Duke wins we move them here and thus X goes here and Y moves here". Just have a contingency plan. but, as you said, it is what it is

jipops
03-12-2017, 05:47 PM
I can't pick us because I'm convinced I jinx us. '99 was the the only time I ever picked us to win the whole thing, and we saw how painful that turned out. So I went with Nova with the right to be wrong.

MrPoon
03-12-2017, 05:47 PM
Overall, I like the 2-seeds better than the 1-seeds.

Absolutely agree. How many early exits does it take for Zags to actually be held to a difficulty schedule?

weezie
03-12-2017, 05:48 PM
Villanova got screwed


Haha, same for holes

CDu
03-12-2017, 05:49 PM
that's what they have said for years... the bracket is somewhat locked in before weekend tourney results.. they have to be? so as to be prepared for releasing bracket on Sunday. So moving from a 4 to a 2 is actually big considering the committee tries to be pretty finished with everything my mid-week this week. I have just noticed this in the past. Weekend winners don't move as much (up or down) as you might think. And I get it. They want to see what you did for 25 games. The weekend is just a minor addition which usually goes up or down a line. Rarely do you move two lines as we did

The problem is that there can occasionally be a situation like this: a team that was very injured and underseeded as a result that then runs a gauntlet of top teams.

But, oh well.

Kedsy
03-12-2017, 05:50 PM
We just got totally screwed. This means we were lowest 2 seed.

As CDu said, it doesn't mean that at all. From what I saw, we were the #6 team (2nd best 2-seed) and were put in East for geographical reasons.

I'll tell you what, though, the East is a tough region. Of Pomeroy's top 13 teams, 6 are in the East while no other region has more than 3. Duke can only play (at most) two of them, however.

ipatent
03-12-2017, 05:50 PM
On the flip side Nova can't be too pleased.

Virginia gave them a very close game a few months ago. Wisconsin could make the second round game interesting as well. With that said, Villanova is the class of the East this year and must be considered the favorite. Duke can beat them, but Villanova has been more consistent and has more players with final four experience.

Des Esseintes
03-12-2017, 05:55 PM
Our region has 6 of the top 13 teams according to kenpom. Baylor (#13) will be fortunate to get by SMU (#11) to face us.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-12-2017, 05:56 PM
Yep, I have noticed this. They like to be done early. I read this elsewhere a while back - esp when ACC finished on Sunday.
But we just play who we play. Honestly I don't think the timing thing would be that hard.. you just say "if Duke wins we move them here and thus X goes here and Y moves here". Just have a contingency plan. but, as you said, it is what it is

What it is... is laziness. Plain and simple.

Indoor66
03-12-2017, 05:57 PM
I like this region. I like the way we match up with these teams. I like our half better than Nova's half.

I'm with you on this one. I am quite satisfied with our prospects for the Tournament. I don't see any team that we can't beat.

Kjeffrey
03-12-2017, 05:58 PM
As CDu said, it doesn't mean that at all. From what I saw, we were the #6 team (2nd best 2-seed) and were put in East for geographical reasons.

I'll tell you what, though, the East is a tough region. Of Pomeroy's top 13 teams, 6 are in the East while no other region has more than 3. Duke can only play (at most) two of them, however.

They just said Duke was #7 on ESPN.

Les Grossman
03-12-2017, 05:59 PM
per Scott van Pelt

Kjeffrey
03-12-2017, 06:01 PM
The tournament chairman just said we were a four to start the week. I didn't hear another reason why Duke isn't over unc outside of they weren't a 1 seed on Wednesday

If I am correctly making sense of what he said this is how it happened. Duke started the week as a 4 and moved up to the 2 line. He said they got stopped because a 2 seed ahead of them won both the regular season and conference tourney championship. I am guessing that was Kentucky. And because Duke was stopped on the 2 line they were never compared to the teams on the one line. It seems like the ones were pretty off limits.

dragoneye776
03-12-2017, 06:05 PM
Our region has 6 of the top 13 teams according to kenpom. Baylor (#13) will be fortunate to get by SMU (#11) to face us.

Good thing we will only have to face a maximum of 2 of those top 6. Against (SMU OR Baylor) and then against (Villanova OR Virginia OR Florida)

UT Dukie
03-12-2017, 06:08 PM
I don't disagree with others about Duke vis a vis Villanova; however, I'd like senior scoring leaders over non-senior scoring leaders. Let's hope the games play out as we hope, with Coach K taking down a former assistant coach, a former player, and then a senior scoring leader team to head to Phoenix. Toughest matchups of the tourney should theoretically be Villanova then possibly UNC (just because it's hard to beat a good team 3 times in one season). My $0.02 anyway.

53n206
03-12-2017, 06:10 PM
I can't pick us because I'm convinced I jinx us. '99 was the the only time I ever picked us to win the whole thing, and we saw how painful that turned out. So I went with Nova with the right to be wrong.
I was in Cabo having a great time until that game. I still feel the pain.

Troublemaker
03-12-2017, 06:13 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6wEITrWYAA4mQE.jpg

91devil
03-12-2017, 06:13 PM
Kind of fun watching Jay Bilas verbally dressing-down Seth Greenberg about Seth's perceived anti-Duke bias.

TKG
03-12-2017, 06:15 PM
Watching ESPN's review of the brackets, Seth Greenberg cannot contain his disdain for Duke. Really funny to watch Bilas argue with Fester who gets so salty.

duke4ever19
03-12-2017, 06:19 PM
Kind of fun watching Jay Bilas verbally dressing-down Seth Greenberg about Seth's perceived anti-Duke bias.

Then we get to watch Calipari pretending to gag himself over Bilas' defense of Duke.

BlueDevilBrowns
03-12-2017, 06:21 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6wEITrWYAA4mQE.jpg

When you see Minnesota ranked 18th, ahead of Iowa State and ND... that's really all you need to know about the logic of this year's committee.

TKG
03-12-2017, 06:31 PM
Then we get to watch Calipari pretending to gag himself over Bilas' defense of Duke.


Calipari and Kentucky fans want so badly to be taken seriously by Duke. I love how K never takes the bait. Kentucky take itself very seriously and they jump up and down like children: "We're good, too!" "Look at us. We're better than Duke" "It's so unfair."

Brockt10
03-12-2017, 06:32 PM
Then we get to watch Calipari pretending to gag himself over Bilas' defense of Duke.

He actually made some good points. If the conference tournaments don't matter in terms of a 1 seed then let them know. Kentucky has a great argument for a 1 seed over Unc. I think both Duke and UK are pissed about the Carolina 1 seed because there is no logical arguement for them over the other 2.

It was fun watching Bilas finally stand up for Duke.

mgtr
03-12-2017, 06:33 PM
I like our bracket, at least up to the elite 8. Just need to win one at a time.

BD80
03-12-2017, 06:44 PM
I like our path, it looks like we only need to win 6 more games.

WHOneedsSOX
03-12-2017, 06:46 PM
He actually made some good points. If the conference tournaments don't matter in terms of a 1 seed then let them know. Kentucky has a great argument for a 1 seed over Unc. I think both Duke and UK are pissed about the Carolina 1 seed because there is no logical arguement for them over the other 2.

It was fun watching Bilas finally stand up for Duke.

I definitely agree with that. I know the ACC is a lot tougher than the SEC but why does UNC deserve a #1 seed if they can't even win their own conference? I know they won the regular season title but they should have at least made it to the championship game of the ACC tournament too. I don't think Duke deserved the #1 seed either just fyi.

Listen to Quants
03-12-2017, 06:47 PM
I like this region. I like the way we match up with these teams. I like our half better than Nova's half.


Indeed. I'm with you and deBlueDevil and "Flying." Duke's path before Nova doesn't have under-seeded land mines, at least if you use the BPI, or KenPom, or Sagarin as the measures. Baylor is outside the top 12 and Marquette and SC are around 30. That is rather lucky. Luck runs out in the Elite 8 if Duke sees Nova but it's cool till then.

duketaylor
03-12-2017, 06:47 PM
WOW!! A stickdog sighting!! where's he/she been? Now need to hear from Jumbo and a few more!!
We'll play who's on our schedule, as simple as that. No fussin' about brackets, it's pointless. Have no idea how things will play out anyway.
We're playing our best ball now-good timing!!

Brockt10
03-12-2017, 06:48 PM
Indeed. I'm with you and deBlueDevil and "Flying." Duke's path before Nova doesn't have under-seeded land mines, at least if you use the BPI, or KenPom, or Sagarin as the measures. Baylor is outside the top 12 and Marquette and SC are around 30. That is rather lucky. Luck runs out in the Elite 8 if Duke sees Nova but it's cool till then.

SMU says hello. They should have been a 4 or arguably 3 seed.

NYBri
03-12-2017, 06:49 PM
I like our path, it looks like we only need to win 6 more games.

Boom! :cool:

tux
03-12-2017, 06:50 PM
It does not mean that. Regional preferences matter. They don't seed on an S curve.

This is a very important point. There may be some semblance of an S-curve, but regional preferences probably preclude the committee from seeding that way. I think Duke got a great draw --- you have to look at the overall bracket. I think I prefer Duke's starting point to that of UNC. No way we were the last 2 seed in the mind of the committee. I agree with whoever said that Villanova fans can't be that happy...

Troublemaker
03-12-2017, 06:51 PM
SMU says hello. They should have been a 4 or arguably 3 seed.

True, but they would just be a 3-seed replacement for Baylor.

Basically, we miss out on a chance to get lucky and face a true 6-seed, i.e. we have a greater than usual chance of facing a 3-seed quality team if we advance to the Sweet 16. Not insignificant, but also not something I'm going to get worked up over.

I like that we don't have a 7/10 landmine. I like that we won't have a 3 (or a 6) that should've been a 2.

UNCfan
03-12-2017, 06:52 PM
Man to draw SC in SC is tough. Not afraid of Marquette though.

Drawing SC in SC and a lot of UNC fans in the building may be tough. I do not think SC will be competitive with Duke, but if the game gets close....that place will be like a home game for SC.

Brockt10
03-12-2017, 06:55 PM
I definitely agree with that. I know the ACC is a lot tougher than the SEC but why does UNC deserve a #1 seed if they can't even win their own conference? I know they won the regular season title but they should have at least made it to the championship game of the ACC tournament too. I don't think Duke deserved the #1 seed either just fyi.

Unc also had by far the easiest schedule in the toughest conference. They played 2 of the top 8 teams on the road and lost both of them. Duke played all 7 of the other top 8 teams on the road. The real problem is the committee is rushed and has an astonishingly weak basketball resume.

wavedukefan70s
03-12-2017, 07:02 PM
Drawing SC in SC and a lot of UNC fans in the building may be tough. I do not think SC will be competitive with Duke, but if the game gets close...that place will be like a home game for SC.

Atleast its in clemson territory.i think we will be ok.gamecocks mainly travel for football and baseball.traffic will not be very fun.

CrazyNotCrazie
03-12-2017, 07:04 PM
I wish they had asked the committee chair if the fact that we were missing injured players (and coach) had any impact on our seeding - based on the outcome my guess is that they ignored this. That being said, overall this is one of the better brackets they've done in years and our path is reasonable.

devildeac
03-12-2017, 07:04 PM
Lunardi was correct when he said the 4 #1 seeds were locked early in the week - selection committee chair confirmed it


They actually questioned the chair pretty heavily and provided indisputable evidence for Duke over Unc. You could tell he was nervous and got the feeling like he had no good answer. He basically said the 4 one seeds were locked in and they didn't have time after the tournaments. Pretty disappointing but it is what it is.

Maybe the COI could ask the selection committee to re-do the ANOA, err, seeding/brackets. :rolleyes:

Dukeblue91
03-12-2017, 07:10 PM
We just will have to play one game at a time and win each one.
It doesn't matter what they are ranked.

NashvilleDevil
03-12-2017, 07:11 PM
SMU says hello. They should have been a 4 or arguably 3 seed.

SMU in Texas would stink but SMU in MSG. Give me Duke.

UrinalCake
03-12-2017, 07:17 PM
SMU in Texas would stink but SMU in MSG. Give me Duke.

Yep I think playing in MSG is a really big deal, we shouldn't underestimate it. Also getting to play our first game on Friday rather than Thursday makes a big difference for us given how drained our guys are physically and emotionally.

Devilwin
03-12-2017, 07:18 PM
There's no one in this region we can't beat. We're Duke for crying out loud, they better fear us!:mad::mad::mad::

Troublemaker
03-12-2017, 07:19 PM
Early championship odds from an online site.

http://i.imgur.com/namxNpo.png

Troublemaker
03-12-2017, 07:22 PM
Interesting that Nova might have to win an ACC tournament to win this region.

Nova - VaTech would be a worthy ACC QF.

Nova - UVA would be a worthy ACC SF.

Nova - Duke would be a worthy ACC final.

duke4ever19
03-12-2017, 07:23 PM
Early championship odds from an online site.

http://i.imgur.com/namxNpo.png

I saw Duke 5-1, UNC 6-1 etc.

People are definitely jumping back on the Duke bandwagon after what just transpired over the weekend.

Listen to Quants
03-12-2017, 07:27 PM
Indeed. I'm with you and deBlueDevil and "Flying." Duke's path before Nova doesn't have under-seeded land mines, at least if you use the BPI, or KenPom, or Sagarin as the measures. Baylor is outside the top 12 and Marquette and SC are around 30. That is rather lucky. Luck runs out in the Elite 8 if Duke sees Nova but it's cool till then.


SMU says hello. They should have been a 4 or arguably 3 seed.

SMU is indeed a land mine but for Baylor, not Duke ... or at least that's how I view it. Duke, if it gets there, will see a roughly equal team in either case. Hence the argument that the bracket is fine ... until Nova. <my opinion, yours maybe it ain't>

Lulu
03-12-2017, 07:33 PM
I'm watching everything a couple hours late, but that chairman's "scrubbing process" was about the most backasswards thing I've heard from the selection committee... ever.

bluedev_92
03-12-2017, 07:38 PM
I won't say I agree with how the committee ranked Duke, but I like where we are. Close to home, Friday start, regional in MSG. Go Duke!! I look forward to a matchup with Nova...

Furniture
03-12-2017, 07:58 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/841074170846937088/video/1

Atlanta Duke
03-12-2017, 07:59 PM
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams both predict UNC-Duke national championship game, which would be Armageddon

Bilas says UNC wins it all, Jay Williams picks Duke

duke4ever19
03-12-2017, 08:10 PM
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams both predict UNC-Duke national championship game, which would be Armageddon

Bilas says UNC wins it all, Jay Williams picks Duke

I don't even know if I could handle watching that live. I would probably sequester myself somewhere with my phone off and then come here about 2 1/2 hours after the tip time to see the final score. Seriously.

uh_no
03-12-2017, 08:18 PM
I like our path, it looks like we only need to win 6 more games.

and if we're lucky, they'll give us at least one day off between each one!

dukelion
03-12-2017, 08:20 PM
I try not to get too wrapped up with who we "might" play simply due to the numerous possibilities that present themselves.

With that said "if" we get SMU or Baylor I'd me more concerned with Baylor.

Yes SMU is on a pretty lengthy wining streak but their competition is pretty average to weak over that time span. Baylor has actually had some decent wins and won't be intimidated by the stage.

Tripping William
03-12-2017, 08:21 PM
I don't even know if I could handle watching that live. I would probably sequester myself somewhere with my phone off and then come here about 2 1/2 hours after the tip time to see the final score. Seriously.

You're not alone. But we're getting way, way, way, way, way (that's 5 "ways," on purpose) ahead of ourselves.

CoachJ10
03-12-2017, 08:23 PM
I think the Villanova fan boards should be very upset to see Duke in their bracket.

moonpie23
03-12-2017, 08:24 PM
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams both predict UNC-Duke national championship game, which would be Armageddon

Bilas says UNC wins it all, Jay Williams picks Duke

reece picked a duke/unc final as well.......i think he picked unc to win...

Tripping William
03-12-2017, 08:27 PM
I'm not guaranteeing that Duke will make the Final Four. But four wins in this region is no more difficult than the four we just won. Probably significantly easier, actually.

Listen to Quants
03-12-2017, 08:28 PM
I don't even know if I could handle watching that live. I would probably sequester myself somewhere with my phone off and then come here about 2 1/2 hours after the tip time to see the final score. Seriously.


You're not alone. .... <snip> ....

and me

ice-9
03-12-2017, 08:31 PM
Even if things go to chalk, Troy -> South Carolina -> Baylor -> Villanova on the whole is probably easier than Clemson -> Louisville -> UNC -> Notre Dame. We can do it.

And I don't even think it'll go to chalk. I've got Marquette beating USC and SMU beating Baylor.

Villanova though...that's a different beast. Playing Villanova in MSG would be the single most difficult game of the entire NCAA tournament. They're a consensus #1 for a reason. Elite offense and defense. Senior leadership. Defending champs. Consistency over the regular season and conference tournament champion.

If we can beat Nova, I like our chances to win the whole thing. Kansas, who we lost to by just 2 points without Tatum? UNC, who we already beat twice? Kentucky with their freshmen? Arizona?

The East's Elite 8 game will decide the national champ.

NYBri
03-12-2017, 08:31 PM
I'm not guaranteeing that Duke will make the Final Four. But four wins in this region is no more difficult than the four we just won. Probably significantly easier, actually.

Totally agree. And we did that in four Days. :cool:

Atlanta Duke
03-12-2017, 08:31 PM
You're not alone. But we're getting way, way, way, way, way (that's 5 "ways," on purpose) ahead of ourselves.

Agreed that the job for now is to win two in Greenville

But I found it noteworthy for Jay Bilas to predict Duke gets out of the East, since he continues to have a high opinion of Villanova - link to his comments to Richard Deitsch of SI.com

I don't have any concerns except for health. Darryl Reynolds getting healthy and staying healthy would be the only concern....

I love that team. But the only issue would be dealing with teams, like if they played North Carolina again, dealing with their size.

http://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/03/12/ncaa-tournament-cbs-turner-broadcasting-coverage-media-circus

tbyers11
03-12-2017, 08:35 PM
reece picked a duke/unc final as well...i think he picked unc to win...

Yep.

Gameday Crew picks:

Rece: UNC over Duke
Bilas: UNC over Duke
JWill: Duke over UNC
Seth: UCLA over Arizona
Dickie V: UNC over Gonzaga

NYBri
03-12-2017, 08:40 PM
Yep.

Gameday Crew picks:

Rece: UNC over Duke
Bilas: UNC over Duke
JWill: Duke over UNC
Seth: UCLA over Arizona
Dickie V: UNC over Gonzaga

What the frank does everyone see in the Cheats? They aren't going to make it to the FF.

9 frankin' F!!!! :cool:

chriso
03-12-2017, 08:41 PM
Vote on the east here.

I'm very happy with our bracket. This is doable. And remember before last year Villanova had a few early exits from the tournament. Something tells me if we take care of business we won't even play Nova. I think SMU beats Baylor and we beat SMU. I say we win our way to the Final Four. Fingers crossed...

UrinalCake
03-12-2017, 08:53 PM
I try not to get too wrapped up with who we "might" play simply due to the numerous possibilities that present themselves.

With that said "if" we get SMU or Baylor I'd me more concerned with Baylor.

Yes SMU is on a pretty lengthy wining streak but their competition is pretty average to weak over that time span. Baylor has actually had some decent wins and won't be intimidated by the stage.


Baylor started off the year great, working their way up to a #1 ranking. But they have since taken a nose dive and enter the tournament having lost 6 of their past 11 games. I think that's an ideal team to have as your #3 seed from our perspective.

SMU would be an intriguing matchup due to the Semi factor. Maybe we could talk him into just standing on the perimeter and heaving threes like he did for us for a year and a half. :)

Lennies
03-12-2017, 09:10 PM
We just got totally screwed. This means we were lowest 2 seed. Baylor is best 3 seed and SMU as a 6 seed? They are ranked 12th in the country.

Supposedly, Duke was #7 on the s-curve.

"Duke was a No. 4 seed when the committee began deliberating. After beating Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame over four days, the Blue Devils zoomed all the way to a No. 2 seed, No. 7 on the 68-team S-curve."

Why?

"If the committee had gone strictly by that curve, Louisville would have been No. 2 in the East and Duke No. 2 in the Midwest where the Blue Devils could have been looking at a regional final against Kansas in Kansas City. Guess they figured Coach K would be yelling louder than Rick Pitino if that scenario played out."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/villanova/20170313_Jerardi__Unlike_last_year__selection_comm ittee_does_better_job_on_bracket.html

ChillinDuke
03-12-2017, 09:23 PM
No issue with the seed number or location. I actually like our draw. But I do think Hollis sounded idiotic up there on CBS. When pressed, to say Duke never got compared to the one seeds seems utterly baffling to me. Because why not? I'm fine if the answer was we just couldn't get around 8 losses or the injuries were hard to quantify given the breadth of them or NC State was a bad loss that no one else had.

But to say explicitly that Duke wasn't compared to the ones makes zero sense. It just calls into question their whole process if they aren't comparing twos to ones, or across any seed lines for that matter. Like how on Earth...

- Chillin

cspan37421
03-12-2017, 09:23 PM
Yep.

Gameday Crew picks:

Rece: UNC over Duke
Bilas: UNC over Duke
JWill: Duke over UNC
Seth: UCLA over Arizona
Dickie V: UNC over Gonzaga

If you're Villanova, that goes on the bulletin board in the locker room.

DukieInBrasil
03-12-2017, 09:30 PM
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams both predict UNC-Duke national championship game, which would be Armageddon

Bilas says UNC wins it all, Jay Williams picks Duke

Did Bilas not watch the ACC Championship game? Does he not know Duke is 2-1 vs UNC this year? Well, whatever

DukieInBrasil
03-12-2017, 09:33 PM
Baylor started off the year great, working their way up to a #1 ranking. But they have since taken a nose dive and enter the tournament having lost 6 of their past 11 games. I think that's an ideal team to have as your #3 seed from our perspective.

SMU would be an intriguing matchup due to the Semi factor. Maybe we could talk him into just standing on the perimeter and heaving threes like he did for us for a year and a half. :)

he shot 42% on 3s this year at a pretty high volume. Not sure we'd wanna do what you're suggesting.

Hingeknocker
03-12-2017, 09:57 PM
I'm with those who think we ended up with a more than acceptable region. I would have preferred to be a 1 seed, even in the Memphis regional with Kentucky, but given that that was more of a long shot that I thought, this is exactly what I wanted. I would be very surprised if it isn't the preferred outcome that Coach K and the team wanted - being able to play in the Garden that's as much of a second home as we have. (Barclay's Arena and the Dean Dome have strong arguments, here.) I am disappointed to see us with the chance to play South Carolina in their home state, but also haven't checked if there were bracketing principles at play that maybe forced the Gamecocks into our region? Baylor doesn't scare me at all. They're really struggling lately, and I won't be surprised if SMU beats them. That would be a tricky S16 matchup, but no matter what, I like our chances.

I'm also not getting worked up at all over the 1-68 seeding list the committee released. I know why they have to do that, but I'm not sure I buy the fact that Duke was "only" the 7th overall team. If they had insisted on putting us at #5, it would have meant we didn't get our preferred region (East). And it also would have kept us out of UNC's region, forcing us into the worst two options, in my opinion, going all the way West, or having to be in KU's region in Kansas City. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we were nudged down that 2 line, to make the geographic preferences work alongside their bracketing principles.

CDu
03-12-2017, 10:00 PM
No issue with the seed number or location. I actually like our draw. But I do think Hollis sounded idiotic up there on CBS. When pressed, to say Duke never got compared to the one seeds seems utterly baffling to me. Because why not? I'm fine if the answer was we just couldn't get around 8 losses or the injuries were hard to quantify given the breadth of them or NC State was a bad loss that no one else had.

But to say explicitly that Duke wasn't compared to the ones makes zero sense. It just calls into question their whole process if they aren't comparing twos to ones, or across any seed lines for that matter. Like how on Earth...

- Chillin

I kind of get the explanation as to why we weren't compared to the 1s. The argument was essentially that they lost a compairson with either Arizona or Kentucky (or both). So the committee must have said "well, Duke is behind UA or UK or both, where do those teams compare to the 1s?" And they must have decided that UNC's resume was better. Which I can buy, as UNC does have more quality wins than those two.

The problem isn't that they didn't compare Duke to UNC. It is that they felt that UK and UA had better resumes than Duke. Which was probably decided on the faulty logic of "those teams won their conference regular season and tourney whereas Duke did not."

WWBD
03-12-2017, 10:11 PM
People need to ease up on the Lunardi love tonight. "He got 98% right!" Yeah, well, it's pretty obvious at this point that the committee is leaking information to him along the way. Lunardi was steadfast in his #1 seed picks, even as virtually every other commentator was slotting in either Duke or Arizona (or both). Surprise, surprise, the committee didn't look at their #1 seeds after Wednesday. And Lunardi clearly knew that.

SoCalDukeFan
03-12-2017, 10:25 PM
Jay Bilas and Jay Williams both predict UNC-Duke national championship game, which would be Armageddon

Bilas says UNC wins it all, Jay Williams picks Duke

ACC bias. Had Duke over UNC to win it all.

Not sure I could stand to watch the game however.

Go Texas Southern.

SoCal

devildeac
03-12-2017, 10:29 PM
ACC bias. Had Duke over UNC to win it all.

Not sure I could stand to watch the game however.

Go Texas Southern.

SoCal

Go:

Kentucky
UCLA
Butler
Minnesota
Cincinnati
Dayton
Arkansas
Seton Hall
Wichita State
Kansas State / Wake Forest
Middle Tennessee
Winthrop
Kent State
Other

(Yes, I just copied and pasted the remainder of the South bracket, excluding unc. I'd add N. Korea and ISIS if I could but I think they're both ineligible and it'd be too PPB. :p:o:rolleyes:)

jhmoss1812
03-12-2017, 10:30 PM
Tough draw for UVA. I think a lot of people will be picking UNCW (one of my other alma maters) to upset us in the first round. If we are fortunate enough to win against the Seahawks, we are probably looking at a second round game against UF in Orlando. Win that and we likely get a rematch against Nova in MSG. Win that and we're most likely up against the one team I did not want in our bracket - Duke. With all that said, if we are playing Duke in the Elite 8, I will be absolutely thrilled, despite the fact that I think we have a very small chance at winning. That would be a wildly successful season for us. Good luck in the bottom half of the bracket and hope to see you (but actually not really) in MSG for a trip to the Final Four.

Fortunately, I will be in Vegas for the first two rounds of the tournament so I will be having a blast even if UVA does get knocked out early.

BD80
03-12-2017, 10:36 PM
My choice of path:

Troy
Marquette
SMU
UVA
Northwestern
Texas Southern

CHAMPIONS!

proelitedota
03-12-2017, 10:41 PM
My choice of path:

Troy
Marquette
SMU
UVA
Northwestern
Texas Southern

CHAMPIONS!

Path for the ages.

TampaDuke
03-12-2017, 11:36 PM
What the frank does everyone see in the Cheats? They aren't going to make it to the FF.

9 frankin' F!!!! :cool:

Maybe it's all those impressive road wins they have this year. :rolleyes:

MrPoon
03-13-2017, 12:08 AM
Maybe it's all those impressive road wins they have this year. :rolleyes:

Maybe it's the great streak of success Roy has had against K as of late....:rolleyes:

juise
03-13-2017, 12:51 AM
ACC bias. Had Duke over UNC to win it all.

Not sure I could stand to watch the game however.

Go Texas Southern.

SoCal

Apparently Vegas has an ACC bias (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18894705/2017-ncaa-tournament-duke-blue-devils-favorites-win-las-vegas), too.

monkey
03-13-2017, 05:01 AM
What the frank does everyone see in the Cheats? They aren't going to make it to the FF.

9 frankin' F!!!! :cool:

Perhaps the commentators have realized that UNC players are better able to deal on an even footing with others in their bracket like UK, inasmuch as none of them have to go to class...

Philadukie
03-13-2017, 06:56 AM
No issue with the seed number or location. I actually like our draw. But I do think Hollis sounded idiotic up there on CBS. When pressed, to say Duke never got compared to the one seeds seems utterly baffling to me. Because why not? I'm fine if the answer was we just couldn't get around 8 losses or the injuries were hard to quantify given the breadth of them or NC State was a bad loss that no one else had.

But to say explicitly that Duke wasn't compared to the ones makes zero sense. It just calls into question their whole process if they aren't comparing twos to ones, or across any seed lines for that matter. Like how on Earth...

- Chillin

Agree, I thought he was not good. Past chairs have been very articulate and comfortable and diplomatic. He kept repeating the same "scrubbing" talking point over and over about Duke.

If the process is truly like he described it now, then it is a flawed process. The teams shouldn't be "ranked" like an AP poll, and then teams have knock other teams off to get up the line (which we did by the way). We know how flawed the bball ranking system is.

The team resumes should be compared against each other, including potential ones, after all the tournament results.

chrishoke
03-13-2017, 08:10 AM
South Carolina is better than Clemson. Playing them in their home state with thousands of Tar Heel fans in the stands is not my idea of a good draw.

CDu
03-13-2017, 08:19 AM
South Carolina is better than Clemson. Playing them in their home state with thousands of Tar Heel fans in the stands is not my idea of a good draw.

Clemson beat South Carolina in Columbia. I wouldn't say that South Carolina is better than Clemson.

I agree that would be suboptimal to have to play SC in SC (they are about 2 hours closer to Greenville SC than we are). But we are substantively better than SC.

flyingdutchdevil
03-13-2017, 08:28 AM
Anyone else excited that we're potentially playing in New York for the second weekend?

Duke's home away from home. God I love New York

Atlanta Duke
03-13-2017, 08:29 AM
Clemson beat South Carolina in Columbia. I wouldn't say that South Carolina is better than Clemson.

I agree that would be suboptimal to have to play SC in SC (they are about 2 hours closer to Greenville SC than we are). But we are substantively better than SC.

South Carolina arguably was overseeded at 7 and has no business playing the first weekend in-state within a 90 minute drive of Columbia even if it was properly seeded at 7.

Maybe that is another consequence of the selection committee drawing up brackets in the middle of last week and then engaging in its "scrubbing" process.

flyingdutchdevil
03-13-2017, 08:32 AM
South Carolina arguably was overseeded at 7 and has no business playing the first weekend in-state within a 90 minute drive of Columbia even if it was properly seeded at 7.

Maybe that is another consequence of the selection committee drawing up brackets in the middle of last week and then engaging in its "scrubbing" process.

Isn't that a good thing for Duke? I'll take over-seeded against home advantage than under-seeded anywhere else.

Dukelogger
03-13-2017, 08:34 AM
It won't bother the team to play SC in Greenville. This team does not slump like many when they leave home.

I believe UNC fans will also be on hand in Greenville in the second round as they'll play before or after us.

Matches
03-13-2017, 08:36 AM
Isn't that a good thing for Duke? I'll take over-seeded against home advantage than under-seeded anywhere else.

Assuming SC makes it to Round 2 (not a given at all), it just won't matter that much. We'll have a ton of fans there. The UNC people will do what they're gonna do, but I'm not worried about being shouted down by a huge USC contingent. We travel well - it's not like we're playing the other USC in Sacramento or anything like that.

OldPhiKap
03-13-2017, 08:38 AM
No use complaining about the draw, it's done. Time to just take care of business.

We've got this.

Atlanta Duke
03-13-2017, 08:41 AM
Isn't that a good thing for Duke? I'll take over-seeded against home advantage than under-seeded anywhere else.

Agreed that is preferable to having Witchita State seeded at 10 in the East or SMU at 7 rather than 6 but still hard to figure how a 7 seed receives its preferred pod

flyingdutchdevil
03-13-2017, 08:45 AM
Assuming SC makes it to Round 2 (not a given at all), it just won't matter that much. We'll have a ton of fans there. The UNC people will do what they're gonna do, but I'm not worried about being shouted down by a huge USC contingent. We travel well - it's not like we're playing the other USC in Sacramento or anything like that.

Agreed. No team in the country is better at dealing with adversity (on-court, off-court) than Duke. Bring on the hate. Bring on the challenge. I'm so excited.

Wander
03-13-2017, 08:48 AM
Agreed that is preferable to having Witchita State seeded at 10 in the East or SMU at 7 rather than 6

I'll go a step more: we got by far the easiest 7-10 game. The other 2 seeds face the possibility of playing the most underseeded team in the tournament, the #1 offense in the country, and a team that has gone 28-1 against non-Gonzaga teams. Having to playing South Carolina in South Carolina is pretty lame, but it's better than all those other options.

slower
03-13-2017, 08:55 AM
Yep.

Gameday Crew picks:

Rece: UNC over Duke
Bilas: UNC over Duke
JWill: Duke over UNC
Seth: UCLA over Arizona
Dickie V: UNC over Gonzaga

On the selection show, Seth picked Duke to win it all, didn't he?

tbyers11
03-13-2017, 08:56 AM
On the selection show, Seth picked Duke to win it all, didn't he?

I'm talking about the ESPN GameDay crew and Seth Greenberg not Seth Davis

slower
03-13-2017, 09:02 AM
I'm talking about the ESPN GameDay crew and Seth Greenberg not Seth Davis
Gotcha. I really can't stand Greenberg.

Indoor66
03-13-2017, 09:10 AM
So much hand wringing; so little meaning.

OldPhiKap
03-13-2017, 09:11 AM
On the selection show, Seth picked Duke to win it all, didn't he?

Seth Davis, yes.

NYBri
03-13-2017, 09:21 AM
So much hand wringing; so little meaning.

Almost a haiku. Wise, none-the-less. :cool:

chrishoke
03-13-2017, 09:25 AM
I'll go a step more: we got by far the easiest 7-10 game. The other 2 seeds face the possibility of playing the most underseeded team in the tournament, the #1 offense in the country, and a team that has gone 28-1 against non-Gonzaga teams. Having to playing South Carolina in South Carolina is pretty lame, but it's better than all those other options.

Very fair point. Just for fun and laughs, I'll mention that South Carolina beat that Michigan team you are referring to by double digits.

I do hope we have a good crowd in Greenville. My son went to Furman and got married in Greenville. I miss going there.

BandAlum83
03-13-2017, 09:40 AM
Apparently Vegas has an ACC bias (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18894705/2017-ncaa-tournament-duke-blue-devils-favorites-win-las-vegas), too.

It seems Cryin' Jordan is a believer also:


The book at the South Point casino took two $10,000 bets on the Blue Devils from the same bettor in the past few weeks.

chriso
03-13-2017, 09:46 AM
Very fair point. Just for fun and laughs, I'll mention that South Carolina beat that Michigan team you are referring to by double digits.

I do hope we have a good crowd in Greenville. My son went to Furman and got married in Greenville. I miss going there.

We just beat Notre Dame, Louisville and North Carolina. If we play our game we can beat anyone. Certainly South Carolina. We may need some breaks to beat Nova but we can. We've got this my friends! Feeling good on a Monday.:cool:

TexHawk
03-13-2017, 09:49 AM
I'll go a step more: we got by far the easiest 7-10 game. The other 2 seeds face the possibility of playing the most underseeded team in the tournament, the #1 offense in the country, and a team that has gone 28-1 against non-Gonzaga teams. Having to playing South Carolina in South Carolina is pretty lame, but it's better than all those other options.

(You guys would have loved a matchup with #1 AdjO OSU. Duke would have scored over 100 points on them, easily.)

Devil's advocate... South Carolina is also pretty high in a KP metric too, #3 in AdjD. I believe they were #1 for a good chunk of the season. They have a pretty good coach, if a bit of a hot-head. They have a senior guard who averages over 21 ppg, who will likely get rotation minutes in the league next year. It's not *crazy* to think they could slow down the tempo to a crawl, trust their defense, and hope their NBA player makes some tough shots at the end of the shot clock. Then you throw in the fan advantage (if it were true, does SC have basketball fans?), it's not a game to assume is in the bag.

I think a fair number of fanbases would not exactly be happy with that draw.

(Full disclosure: I have never actually seen South Carolina play.)

chriso
03-13-2017, 09:52 AM
(You guys would have loved a matchup with #1 AdjO OSU. Duke would have scored over 100 points on them, easily.)

Devil's advocate... South Carolina is also pretty high in a KP metric too, #3 in AdjD. I believe they were #1 for a good chunk of the season. They have a pretty good coach, if a bit of a hot-head. They have a senior guard who averages over 21 ppg, who will likely get rotation minutes in the league next year. It's not *crazy* to think they could slow down the tempo to a crawl, trust their defense, and hope their NBA player makes some tough shots at the end of the shot clock. Then you throw in the fan advantage (if it were true, does SC have basketball fans?), it's not a game to assume is in the bag.

I think a fair number of fanbases would not exactly be happy with that draw.

(Full disclosure: I have never actually seen South Carolina play.)
Agreed no game is a given. But I like the way we have been playing. And 8 losses will probably not get you a one seed, even if you took down Kong over the weekend. :) I'm more excited for this tournament than I've been in a few years! We're gelling and we're healthy and we're ACC champs! Go Duke!!!

OldPhiKap
03-13-2017, 09:56 AM
(You guys would have loved a matchup with #1 AdjO OSU. Duke would have scored over 100 points on them, easily.)

Devil's advocate... South Carolina is also pretty high in a KP metric too, #3 in AdjD. I believe they were #1 for a good chunk of the season. They have a pretty good coach, if a bit of a hot-head. They have a senior guard who averages over 21 ppg, who will likely get rotation minutes in the league next year. It's not *crazy* to think they could slow down the tempo to a crawl, trust their defense, and hope their NBA player makes some tough shots at the end of the shot clock. Then you throw in the fan advantage (if it were true, does SC have basketball fans?), it's not a game to assume is in the bag.

I think a fair number of fanbases would not exactly be happy with that draw.

(Full disclosure: I have never actually seen South Carolina play.)

I have seen the Gamecocks a bunch this year. Frank Martin, as you would expect, has a pretty tough group. But they also have some inexplicable losses, and got pasted by Florida in Gainesville late in the season. They dipped into the top 25 for a bit during the season, and are probably somewhere in the 30-40 range I would guess if the polls carried out that far. Kinda swooned a bit down the stretch. Pretty good defense; Sindarius Thornwell is a stud (21 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

Will put up a fuller post if necessary down the road, but not sleeping on a Marquette team that is very good from deep and has a heck of a young coach. In a way, I'd rather face USC than Marquette just because (1)Wojo is so familiar with our system; and (2) a barrage of three pointers keeps any team in the game or pushes them out so we are chasing for parts of the game. Having said that, K has a pretty good record against former players and assistant coaches not named Brey (and this year helped there, too).

Not overlooking Troy though. First things first. Good thing K, Amile, Matt and Grayson have done this all before.

DBGoins
03-13-2017, 09:58 AM
If we can make it out of Greenville, I like our chances to get to the FF. Will be two road games with a lot of UNC and SC fans in the seats.

Go Duke!!!

BandAlum83
03-13-2017, 10:02 AM
Agreed no game is a given. But I like the way we have been playing. And 8 losses will probably not get you a one seed, even if you took down Kong over the weekend. :) I'm more excited for this tournament than I've been in a few years! We're gelling and we're healthy and we're ACC champs! Go Duke!!!

I trust K and staff will have this team remembering that even after the gauntlet we just ran, this team is more than capable of losing any game. He will remind them it took herculean efforts to stage 3 consecutive comebacks.

Let see the final 12 minute team for the next 240 minutes of basketball and simply dominate!

chriso
03-13-2017, 10:15 AM
I trust K and staff will have this team remembering that even after the gauntlet we just ran, this team is more than capable of losing any game. He will remind them it took herculean efforts to stage 3 consecutive comebacks.

Let see the final 12 minute team for the next 240 minutes of basketball and simply dominate!

Yes sir. Hopefully the score won't be tied at halftime so I won't have to go for a really long walk. Whenever I do that when I return we are doing better. Against Maryland in the Final Four we were getting crushed and I walked my Beagle for an hour, came back and we were tied. But hopefully we'll have a nice lead. My nerves can't take it. :)

Bluegrassdevil1
03-13-2017, 10:28 AM
Speaking only for myself, I have seen South Carolina play in Columbia many times, and to say that their fans are not avid basketball fans is a profound understatement. More importantly, I suspect the Duke program is rather well-adapted to UNC fans booing them.

I saw South Carolina play UK in Rupp a short time ago, and I have seen them 5-6 times on television. To say that Duke is substantially better than them is not an over-statement.

When UK played in Rupp against the Gamecocks, the Cats were still quite out of sorts, and at no point did it truly appear as though Calipari's squad was ever at risk. UK could beat Duke, and I would not be surprised. USC could beat Duke, but I would be shocked.

Duke may not beat South Carolina by a large margin, perhaps even less than ten points, but the Devils are several steps above the other USC, and fans should not lose too much sleep.

Duke could lose to Troy, but it is unlikely. And the other USC may take out Duke, but it is also unlikely.

Should Marquette win, which I believe they will, I cannot imagine the UNC faithful being too full-throated about cheering for a team led by Wojo.

Duke will be in fine shape during the first two rounds. The Devils may go home early; however, I would think that this past weekend should prove that beating Duke is no small feat, and I do not believe Troy, Marquette, or USC is capable of pulling it off.

CDu
03-13-2017, 10:33 AM
If we can make it out of Greenville, I like our chances to get to the FF. Will be two road games with a lot of UNC and SC fans in the seats.

Go Duke!!!

Seems unlikely that UNC fans would stick around for 5 hours (they'll have the noon game, we'll have the 7:20 game) just to cheer against Duke, but I guess it is possible. But I think it is much more likely that it is just a road game for the Sunday game. And only really if SC beats Marquette, which is no guarantee.

Indoor66
03-13-2017, 10:34 AM
I have seen the Gamecocks a bunch this year. Frank Martin, as you would expect, has a pretty tough group. But they also have some inexplicable losses, and got pasted by Florida in Gainesville late in the season. They dipped into the top 25 for a bit during the season, and are probably somewhere in the 30-40 range I would guess if the polls carried out that far. Kinda swooned a bit down the stretch. Pretty good defense; Sindarius Thornwell is a stud (21 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

Will put up a fuller post if necessary down the road, but not sleeping on a Marquette team that is very good from deep and has a heck of a young coach. In a way, I'd rather face USC than Marquette just because (1)Wojo is so familiar with our system; and (2) a barrage of three pointers keeps any team in the game or pushes them out so we are chasing for parts of the game. Having said that, K has a pretty good record against former players and assistant coaches not named Brey (and this year helped there, too).

Not overlooking Troy though. First things first. Good thing K, Amile, Matt and Grayson have done this all before.

I didn't realize that S Carolina got a bye to the Sunday game.😉 I think they have to get by their 1st round game as well. I am quite sure they are even more worried at the possibility of meeting Duke than vice versa.

OldPhiKap
03-13-2017, 10:37 AM
I didn't realize that S Carolina got a bye to the Sunday game.😉 I think they have to get by their 1st round game as well. I am quite sure they are even more worried at the possibility of meeting Duke than vice versa.

Exactly.

If I were a betting man, I'd take Marquette to beat USC.

sammy3469
03-13-2017, 10:44 AM
(You guys would have loved a matchup with #1 AdjO OSU. Duke would have scored over 100 points on them, easily.)

Devil's advocate... South Carolina is also pretty high in a KP metric too, #3 in AdjD. I believe they were #1 for a good chunk of the season. They have a pretty good coach, if a bit of a hot-head. They have a senior guard who averages over 21 ppg, who will likely get rotation minutes in the league next year. It's not *crazy* to think they could slow down the tempo to a crawl, trust their defense, and hope their NBA player makes some tough shots at the end of the shot clock. Then you throw in the fan advantage (if it were true, does SC have basketball fans?), it's not a game to assume is in the bag.

I think a fair number of fanbases would not exactly be happy with that draw.

(Full disclosure: I have never actually seen South Carolina play.)

The easy comparison is that they are a worse 'Ville (I actually have no idea how 'Ville is slightly worse than them defensively, but my guess would be because of ACC competition) who uses their perimeter height to limit 3-point opportunities for the opposition. When teams are static they can be suffocating, but their PnR defense is more than a little leaky especially once you start getting to their bench players. They are also good at generating turnovers, but again it's not clear that they've seen the best backcourts either.

On offense, they don't shoot well either, a lot of their offense is predicated on turnovers, but they are a good offensive rebounding team.

Any good team should be able to grind them down and generate enough good offensive looks over the course of the game especially since they don't have anyone that can guard Tatum.

Dukelogger
03-13-2017, 10:54 AM
Speaking only for myself, I have seen South Carolina play in Columbia many times, and to say that their fans are not avid basketball fans is a profound understatement. More importantly, I suspect the Duke program is rather well-adapted to UNC fans booing them.

I saw South Carolina play UK in Rupp a short time ago, and I have seen them 5-6 times on television. To say that Duke is substantially better than them is not an over-statement.

When UK played in Rupp against the Gamecocks, the Cats were still quite out of sorts, and at no point did it truly appear as though Calipari's squad was ever at risk. UK could beat Duke, and I would not be surprised. USC could beat Duke, but I would be shocked.

Duke may not beat South Carolina by a large margin, perhaps even less than ten points, but the Devils are several steps above the other USC, and fans should not lose too much sleep.

Duke could lose to Troy, but it is unlikely. And the other USC may take out Duke, but it is also unlikely.

Should Marquette win, which I believe they will, I cannot imagine the UNC faithful being too full-throated about cheering for a team led by Wojo.

Duke will be in fine shape during the first two rounds. The Devils may go home early; however, I would think that this past weekend should prove that beating Duke is no small feat, and I do not believe Troy, Marquette, or USC is capable of pulling it off.

I've always been of the opinion that if you are truly good enough to win the whole tourney then the first three matchups shouldn't matter that much. I'd gladly take the easiest path, and I don't want to hear about another early loss, but in reality the last three rounds are tough enough year in and year out to weed out the imposters. We should handle business this weekend no problem, and it will be nice to be back in NYC the following weekend. Troy, USC, SMU, UF, and Gonzaga would suit me just fine for our first five opponents.

Atlanta Duke
03-13-2017, 10:59 AM
Seems unlikely that UNC fans would stick around for 5 hours (they'll have the noon game, we'll have the 7:20 game) just to cheer against Duke, but I guess it is possible. But I think it is much more likely that it is just a road game for the Sunday game. And only really if SC beats Marquette, which is no guarantee.

FWIW UNC apparently plays around 4 pm on Friday - link below to full Thursday/Friday schedule of games and broadcasters

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2017-march-madness-tv-tip-times-announcers-schedule/

I suppose grabbing something at the concession stand then hanging around to boo Duke might be an option for UNC fans

TruBlu
03-13-2017, 11:22 AM
Has anyone checked Frank Martin's basement for bodies yet?

I can't remember which announcer, but in a K State televised game when Frank got upset with the officials, one announcer suggested it might be a good idea.

Bluedog
03-13-2017, 11:28 AM
Seems unlikely that UNC fans would stick around for 5 hours (they'll have the noon game, we'll have the 7:20 game) just to cheer against Duke, but I guess it is possible. But I think it is much more likely that it is just a road game for the Sunday game. And only really if SC beats Marquette, which is no guarantee.


FWIW UNC apparently plays around 4 pm on Friday - link below to full Thursday/Friday schedule of games and broadcasters

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2017-march-madness-tv-tip-times-announcers-schedule/

I suppose grabbing something at the concession stand then hanging around to boo Duke might be an option for UNC fans

I'm pretty sure you just get tickets to one of the two sessions on Friday (unless you choose to buy both) and then there's only one session on Sunday. So, I'd imagine Friday there won't be many UNC fans in the crowd for our game and Sunday there will be a bunch assuming UNC wins its first game since the UNC and Duke games (assuming we win) will be back-to-back. So, I expect an away game Sunday for sure, regardless on if it's Marquette or South Carolina.

MChambers
03-13-2017, 11:32 AM
Tough draw for UVA. I think a lot of people will be picking UNCW (one of my other alma maters) to upset us in the first round. If we are fortunate enough to win against the Seahawks, we are probably looking at a second round game against UF in Orlando. Win that and we likely get a rematch against Nova in MSG. Win that and we're most likely up against the one team I did not want in our bracket - Duke. With all that said, if we are playing Duke in the Elite 8, I will be absolutely thrilled, despite the fact that I think we have a very small chance at winning. That would be a wildly successful season for us. Good luck in the bottom half of the bracket and hope to see you (but actually not really) in MSG for a trip to the Final Four.

Fortunately, I will be in Vegas for the first two rounds of the tournament so I will be having a blast even if UVA does get knocked out early.

Aren't you happy not to see Michigan State in your bracket?

Troublemaker
03-13-2017, 11:42 AM
Marquette should be a really fun team to watch with their style of play. And given that they can score very well, I'm worried about this kind of team for Duke. I much prefer a USC-type team: they are great at D but they can't score to save their lives. Let's face it - Duke can score on anyone. But if you have penetrating guards and an All-American/Conference big man, you have a change of beating Duke.

Yep, I think this is right. When you look at Duke's 8 losses, 7 of them were shootouts or near-shootout type games in which the opposing team had their way with our defense.

The only defensive slugfest loss we endured was at Miami, and Grayson was missing from that game. I think a healthy Grayson would've put us over the top.

Now, it's not a completely clearcut trend because the ACC was an offensive league this season, i.e. more teams had stronger offenses than defenses. But it IS a trend I believe in. We should be rooting to face defensive teams rather than offensive teams. Love you Wojo, but your team is probably a worse matchup for Duke than playing SCarolina in SCarolina. Duke should beat either team (if we advance past Troy), but Duke probably does beat the Gamecocks more often than the Golden Eagles.

kshepinthehouse
03-13-2017, 11:47 AM
The easy comparison is that they are a worse 'Ville (I actually have no idea how 'Ville is slightly worse than them defensively, but my guess would be because of ACC competition) who uses their perimeter height to limit 3-point opportunities for the opposition. When teams are static they can be suffocating, but their PnR defense is more than a little leaky especially once you start getting to their bench players. They are also good at generating turnovers, but again it's not clear that they've seen the best backcourts either.

On offense, they don't shoot well either, a lot of their offense is predicated on turnovers, but they are a good offensive rebounding team.

Any good team should be able to grind them down and generate enough good offensive looks over the course of the game especially since they don't have anyone that can guard Tatum.

Is there a team in the country that can guard Tatum?

flyingdutchdevil
03-13-2017, 11:55 AM
Yep, I think this is right. When you look at Duke's 8 losses, 7 of them were shootouts or near-shootout type games in which the opposing team had their way with our defense.

The only defensive slugfest loss we endured was at Miami, and Grayson was missing from that game. I think a healthy Grayson would've put us over the top.

Now, it's not a completely clearcut trend because the ACC was an offensive league this season, i.e. more teams had stronger offenses than defenses. But it IS a trend I believe in. We should be rooting to face defensive teams rather than offensive teams. Love you Wojo, but your team is probably a worse matchup for Duke than playing SCarolina in SCarolina. Duke should beat either team (if we advance past Troy), but Duke probably does beat the Gamecocks more often than the Golden Eagles.

True, but the ACC also had the top defensive team in the country (Virginia) and Louisville is ranked in the top 10. We can score on anyone. We just can't guard as well as can score (understatement of the century).

DU82
03-13-2017, 11:57 AM
South Carolina is better than Clemson. Playing them in their home state with thousands of Tar Heel fans in the stands is not my idea of a good draw.

If Marquette wins (and of course, we win and the cheaters win), that leaves the Cheater fans the choice of rooting for Wojo, or leaving the arena (assuming their game is first.)

Spanarkel
03-13-2017, 12:19 PM
Speaking only for myself, I have seen South Carolina play in Columbia many times, and to say that their fans are not avid basketball fans is a profound understatement. More importantly, I suspect the Duke program is rather well-adapted to UNC fans booing them.

I saw South Carolina play UK in Rupp a short time ago, and I have seen them 5-6 times on television. To say that Duke is substantially better than them is not an over-statement.

When UK played in Rupp against the Gamecocks, the Cats were still quite out of sorts, and at no point did it truly appear as though Calipari's squad was ever at risk. UK could beat Duke, and I would not be surprised. USC could beat Duke, but I would be shocked.

Duke may not beat South Carolina by a large margin, perhaps even less than ten points, but the Devils are several steps above the other USC, and fans should not lose too much sleep.

Duke could lose to Troy, but it is unlikely. And the other USC may take out Duke, but it is also unlikely.

Should Marquette win, which I believe they will, I cannot imagine the UNC faithful being too full-throated about cheering for a team led by Wojo.

Duke will be in fine shape during the first two rounds. The Devils may go home early; however, I would think that this past weekend should prove that beating Duke is no small feat, and I do not believe Troy, Marquette, or USC is capable of pulling it off.

South Carolina is the only school in the country with both the men's(~13,400)and women's(12,800)teams averaging over 10,000 fans per contest. Before Frank Martin arrived several years ago, the men's average was in the mid-8s, but has risen significantly every year. Seems like they appreciate good basketball in Columbia. Even though the national stats aren't available yet, the men's team average attendance will likely put them about 20th nationally.

OldPhiKap
03-13-2017, 12:24 PM
South Carolina is the only school in the country with both the men's(~13,400)and women's(12,800)teams averaging over 10,000 fans per contest. Before Frank Martin arrived several years ago, the men's average was in the mid-8s, but has risen significantly every year. Seems like they appreciate good basketball in Columbia. Even though the national stats aren't available yet, the men's team average attendance will likely put them about 20th nationally.

They also invested in a new arena a few years ago, which helps attendance I am sure. The old one was not really patron-friendly.

BD80
03-13-2017, 12:26 PM
South Carolina arguably was overseeded at 7 and has no business playing the first weekend in-state within a 90 minute drive of Columbia even if it was properly seeded at 7.

Maybe that is another consequence of the selection committee drawing up brackets in the middle of last week and then engaging in its "scrubbing" process.

Is "scrubbing" a euphemism for "rough sex?"


FWIW UNC apparently plays around 4 pm on Friday - ...

So unc fans should be gone by 5:45?

jacone21
03-13-2017, 12:30 PM
Has anyone checked Frank Martin's basement for bodies yet?

I can't remember which announcer, but in a K State televised game when Frank got upset with the officials, one announcer suggested it might be a good idea.

I'm a little concerned that the combined intensity of Wojo and Martin will cause some sort of building collapse. Hopefully they will be out of phase and will cancel each other out like noise canceling technology. Be safe out there, folks.

7264

camion
03-13-2017, 12:32 PM
I'm a little concerned that the combined intensity of Wojo and Martin will cause some sort of building collapse. Hopefully they will be out of phase and will cancel each other out like noise canceling technology. Be safe out there, folks.

7264

It could cause a fracking quake. :p

Tripping William
03-13-2017, 12:36 PM
If Marquette wins (and of course, we win and the cheaters win), that leaves the Cheater fans the choice of rooting for Wojo, or leaving the arena (assuming their game is first.)

And not *just* Wojo, but Wojo coaching MARQUETTE. I have read that the only two subjects Dean Smith said he would never discuss publicly were his divorce and "the Marquette game" (meaning the 1977 NCAA title game in which Dean lost to Al McGuire's Marquette club). So, yeah, a South Carolina loss and a Duke win on Friday night would really put Heels fans in a quandary for Sunday's second game.

devildeac
03-13-2017, 12:38 PM
It could cause a fracking quake. :p

Or this:


https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.CytF8WbgUXqwE7j-KBzu7gDIEs&w=124&h=186&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7

(View at your own risk-but, it's been posted here before without infraction-I think :o)

Dr. Rosenrosen
03-13-2017, 12:44 PM
So unc fans should be gone by 5:45?
Yes, if they want to get to their wine bar reservations on time.

Bluegrassdevil1
03-13-2017, 12:49 PM
South Carolina is the only school in the country with both the men's(~13,400)and women's(12,800)teams averaging over 10,000 fans per contest. Before Frank Martin arrived several years ago, the men's average was in the mid-8s, but has risen significantly every year. Seems like they appreciate good basketball in Columbia. Even though the national stats aren't available yet, the men's team average attendance will likely put them about 20th nationally.

By "avid", I was not speaking of the amount of tuchus in chair, but of reaction, response, and sound.

Case in point:

In Jan of last year, I was at the Memphis game in Columbia. My seats were okay, not high in the rafters, but certainly not prime, and both myself and my wife could hear the sneakers on the court, and more importantly, the players calling out defensive assignments.

In Dec of '11, I saw them play Ohio State in Columbia. My seats were worse than '16 against Memphis, but I was able to carry on a normal conversation with my OSU friends throughout 80% of the game. And by normal, I mean, "yeah, traffic was better than I thought." "Pearlz gave me wicked heartburn last night." "Do you think the Bucks can win at IU?"

I am not arguing that USC fans are members of the Mepkin Abbey, but they are not bringing Grand Canyon U's atmosphere to Greenville.

Plus, the Gamecocks play UT in baseball this weekend, and that is truly a big deal in the Palmetto state.

Atlanta Duke
03-13-2017, 12:52 PM
Is "scrubbing" a euphemism for "rough sex?"

LOL - that might fit depending on your view of what happened to Duke not being seeded over UNC

First time I heard that term was last night when selection committee chair Hollis kept using it as his go to cliche to explain how Duke could not be compared to UNC until it first won head to head seeding bakeoffs with Kentucky and Arizona.

"Scrubbing" sounds so much more process driven than four games do not overcome four months of performance and/or we drew up brackets last week so if you think we plan to tear them up late Saturday night guess again.

#2 in the East is fine with me as opposed to sharing a regional final site with Kentucky fans

Kedsy
03-13-2017, 12:58 PM
SMU says hello. They should have been a 4 or arguably 3 seed.


True, but they would just be a 3-seed replacement for Baylor.

If you listen to Pomeroy, SMU is the best team in our subregion (barely better than Duke).

That said, I'm a bit leery of Pomeroy's rankings this year (the first year of his new system). No way to know whether his ranking of, e.g., SMU, St. Mary's, Wichita, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia, Gonzaga are off high and/or Duke, Kansas, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State, UCLA are off low.

Ultimately, as others have said, we just have to play the games and play well. If we get to the second weekend, I'm happy it's in MSG.

DarkstarWahoo
03-13-2017, 01:05 PM
Did Bilas not watch the ACC Championship game? Does he not know Duke is 2-1 vs UNC this year? Well, whatever

Don't you know it's hard to beat a team three times in one year?

CDu
03-13-2017, 01:12 PM
Having given a rundown of Troy, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at our potential Sunday opponents (if we are fortunate to get to Sunday): South Carolina and Marquette.

I'll start with the "favorite" (USC). The Gamecocks are coached by Frank Martin, formerly of Kansas State. They are a physical team noted for their defensive prowess. But they are atrocious on offense except for one guy (Thornwell). In that regard, they are a bit like Louisville, only not nearly as good offensively. And, stylistically, they really aren't much like Louisville at all to be honest.

Frontcourt: The Gamecocks play essentially a single big for most of the game. The starter is Silva (6'9", 225lb sophomore from Gabon). Silva is a solid rebounder and shotblocker and a spectacular fouler, averaging 4 fouls per 20 mpg. He is also fairly productive around the rim (10 ppg in 20 mpg). Backing up Silva is Kotsar (6'10", 245lb frosh from Estonia). Kotsar is less athletic and thus not the shotblocker that Silva is. But he is also a terrific fouler (3.2 fouls per 24 mpg). The two combine for about 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 fouls per 44 minutes per game. If needed, Keita (6'9", 240lb frosh) or Gueye (7'1", 235lb frosh from Senegal) can step in. But those two play fairly sparingly in big games.

Wings: USC plays a set of interchangeable parts defensively on the wings. Thornwell (6'5, 210lb senior), Dozier (6'6", 205lb sophomore), and Notice (6'2", 225lb senior) are the starters and key players. Thornwell is the star, averaging 21 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Thornwell is a bully-ball forward who has made himself into a good shooter. He's strong and athletic but not overly creative with the ball. But he can power his way to the rim. This guy just screams "Matt Jones treatment". Dozier is the second leading scorer and seems to be the heir apparent to Thornwell as the team's star. He has not developed his outside shot in the same way that Thornwell has yet, but he is also a physical player and good athlete. Both guys are strong defenders as you would expect from a top-5 defensive team. Notice is short but stout (in a good way). He's athletic and very physical and strong, which helps him on defense. But offensively he is largely a 3pt shooter (2/3 of his shots are 3s). He has never topped 39% from the field, though he is a solid 3pt shooter (34-40% for his career). This trio does a lot of the ballhandling as well. Behind these guys is Justin McKie (6'4, 205lb senior). McKie - son of SC great BJ McKie - is purely a role player, a veteran glue guy. He doesn't do anything particularly well, nor does he do anything particularly poorly.

Guards: As mentioned above, the Gamecocks share the ball and it is in the hands of their wings a lot. Part of that is because they don't have a clear-cut PG. The two primary options are Gravett (6'1", 185lb sophomore JuCo transfer) and Felder (5'10", 210lb frosh). Gravett is a trainwreck offensively (30% fg%, 24% 3pt shooter) but scrappy. Felder is the more inspiring player of the two: a fire hydrant athlete who would look good as a running back but with a good 3pt shot. Neither is especially good at running an offense though.

The Gamecocks rely heavily on their three top wings and the two-headed rotations at C and PG. They are extremely athletic, extremely physical, and extremely good defensively. But if Thornwell isn't scoring, they are extremely inept offensively. Heck, even when Thornwell is scoring, they are pretty poor offensively. They have a few shooters (Felder, Thornwell, and Notice are all capable/good from 3), and if those guys are hitting they can win. But they will struggle to score.

As for the supposed underdog (Marquette): I call Marquette the supposed underdog because KenPom actually likes them more. But with the "neutral" court being not so neutral, they are probably the underdog. The Eagles are - as you all know - coached by Wojo. They are sort of the inverse of South Carolina: not terribly athletic, bad at defense, but very good offensively.

Bigs: Fischer (6'11", 250lb senior transfer) is the man in the middle. He's big and physical, but not wildly skilled. Fischer averages 11 and 6 to go with 3.4 fouls per 24 minutes. He is a traditional big man who really doesn't offer anything but screens away from the rim. In some ways, he's like a poor man's Marshall Plumlee, but less athletic and not as good a rebounder. Backing up Fischer is Heldt (6'10", 245lb soph), who is a lesser version of Fischer.

Wings: Like SC, the Eagles use a bit of an interchangeable parts approach on the wings. Hauser (6'7", 225lb frosh) and Johnson (6'5", 205lb senior) are the starters. Hauser is a talented young player who can really shoot it: 45% from 3, 81% from the line. He's a bit like Austin Arians from Wake Forest in that he almost exclusively shoots 3s. But he is a nice weapon as a stretch 4. Johnson is probably the best athlete for Marquette, sort of a fairly poor man's version of Thornwell. He averages about 12 ppg in 26 mpg, shooting 37% from 3. Johnson is their best on-ball defender. Off the bench is Reinhardt (6'6", 210lb grad transfer), a former upper-tier recruit (#36 recruit in Jefferson's 2012 class; Jefferson was #21) who just has never really found a starring role in college. He averages about 26 mpg and 11 ppg, shooting 39% from 3. Cheatham (6'5", 195lb sophomore) is the other backup, and is sort of a poor man's version of Johnson.

Guards: At PG, Marquette also uses an unconventional approach. Rowsey (5'10", 180lb junior transfer) and Howard (5'11", 175lb frosh) share the duties, though neither is really a PG. Both are extremely good shooters and instant-offense types despite their diminutive size. Howard shot 55% from 3 and 89% from the line and led the team in scoring (13 ppg) despite playing just 22 mpg, so leaving him open is not an option. Rowsey was a big-time scorer for UNC-Ashville before transferring up, and he too can really shoot it (45% 3s, 93% FTs). Neither is very athletic and both are extremely small, making them liabilities on the other end of the floor (especially against our bigger guards). Behind those two is Wilson (6'2", 185lb junior). Wilson was the starter until Rowsey and Howard arrived this Fall. He can shoot it a little bit (at least historically; not this year) and is a good athlete, but also not a terribly proficient PG.

The Eagles rely heavily on 3pt shooting, at which they are exceptional (43% as a team). Rowsey, Howard, Hauser, and Reinhardt each make over 2 3s per game and shoot 39% or better. They are not a very quick team, and they are undersized and not wildly athletic. As such, they are a poor rebounding team and a poor defensive team. If we can defend the 3pt shot, we should beat them, because they aren't the type of team to break you down off the dribble and they don't have a big-time pick-and-roll game. And, as noted, they stink on defense.

It goes without saying that the two teams are almost completely different. But they are both teams that we matchup well against (for different reasons). Assuming we beat Troy, I like our chances of moving on to NYC.

jacone21
03-13-2017, 01:13 PM
Did Bilas not watch the ACC Championship game? Does he not know Duke is 2-1 vs UNC this year? Well, whatever

Don't you know it's hard to beat a team three times in one year?

Bilas just has a hard time picking against his favorite team. That happens to me when I fill out my bracket as well.

gam7
03-13-2017, 01:35 PM
I have seen the Gamecocks a bunch this year. Frank Martin, as you would expect, has a pretty tough group. But they also have some inexplicable losses, and got pasted by Florida in Gainesville late in the season. They dipped into the top 25 for a bit during the season, and are probably somewhere in the 30-40 range I would guess if the polls carried out that far. Kinda swooned a bit down the stretch. Pretty good defense; Sindarius Thornwell is a stud (21 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

Will put up a fuller post if necessary down the road, but not sleeping on a Marquette team that is very good from deep and has a heck of a young coach. In a way, I'd rather face USC than Marquette just because (1)Wojo is so familiar with our system; and (2) a barrage of three pointers keeps any team in the game or pushes them out so we are chasing for parts of the game. Having said that, K has a pretty good record against former players and assistant coaches not named Brey (and this year helped there, too).

Not overlooking Troy though. First things first. Good thing K, Amile, Matt and Grayson have done this all before.

Having not watched a single minute of a live Villanova or USC game this season, I feel strangely confident in saying that Matt Jones will be a great match-up for Thornwell and Josh Hart, if we end up playing either of them.

Also, if we end up in a matchup against Villanova, I would hope we could get some good intel from Wojo, whose team is responsible for one of Nova's losses.

Reilly
03-13-2017, 01:47 PM
Rise of the Catholic schools: a quick count shows 12 of the 68 schools in the Mens NCAA D1 tourney are Catholic, while there are zero Catholic schools in the 32-team NIT (it seems the NIT usually has a fair number).

And of course two of the four #1 seeds are Catholic. (cross-posted in East and West threads, in honor of Villanova and Gonzaga)

CDu
03-13-2017, 01:49 PM
Having not watched a single minute of a live Villanova or USC game this season, I feel strangely confident in saying that Matt Jones will be a great match-up for Thornwell and Josh Hart, if we end up playing either of them.

Also, if we end up in a matchup against Villanova, I would hope we could get some good intel from Wojo, whose team is responsible for one of Nova's losses.

I think we match up REALLY well against Villanova. Hart is a superstar, but he's right in Matt Jones' defensive wheelhouse. But, honestly, I won't be shocked if we face someone other than Villanova if we make it to the Elite-8. They are good, but I don't think they are as good as last year's Villanova team.

Saratoga2
03-13-2017, 02:35 PM
LOL - that might fit depending on your view of what happened to Duke not being seeded over UNC

First time I heard that term was last night when selection committee chair Hollis kept using it as his go to cliche to explain how Duke could not be compared to UNC until it first won head to head seeding bakeoffs with Kentucky and Arizona.

"Scrubbing" sounds so much more process driven than four games do not overcome four months of performance and/or we drew up brackets last week so if you think we plan to tear them up late Saturday night guess again.

#2 in the East is fine with me as opposed to sharing a regional final site with Kentucky fans

By scrubbing, I took him to mean that we went into the ACC tourney with a perceived seed and with x number of teams deserving of a higher seed. Each win we got, or perhaps after a couple of wins by us and others, the comparisons between teams were reviewed and teams seeding improved or dropped. So we passed a lot of teams due to our streak. Other teams like Arizona also played well and improved while some dropped below us. By that kind of a scrubbing process we gained a lot and others dropped some, but it appears that a high seed like UNC wasn't dropped. Arizona might otherwise overtaken them even if we didn't.

The whole seeding process is flawed and will tend to always be flawed. When an unbalanced conference schedule is involved with different home and away schedules it is difficult to score teams fairly. Then the difference between conferences is difficult to fully assess. Injuries occur and teams get hot or cold. The seeding committee tries to do a fair job and I am not going to complain based on the outcome. The one thing that seemed curious is that lack of consideration of the status of the number 1 seeds after Wednesday of last week. That doesn't seem to be fair to the process of selecting the best teams in order. To me, Arizona went ahead of them and us. I believe the selection committee believed the ACC was the strongest conference and wanted a #1 seed from that conference, so it was a choice between UNC and Duke. Duke had the better resume, but UNC had less losses. Was there bias involved/ Who knows but we are fine and will have a very solid opportunity to move forward.

Clay Feet POF
03-13-2017, 02:48 PM
You heard it here. Opponents will be: Troy, Marquette, SMU, UVA. See you at the Final Four.

I Think you're Right.

CDu
03-13-2017, 02:48 PM
If you listen to Pomeroy, SMU is the best team in our subregion (barely better than Duke).

That said, I'm a bit leery of Pomeroy's rankings this year (the first year of his new system). No way to know whether his ranking of, e.g., SMU, St. Mary's, Wichita, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia, Gonzaga are off high and/or Duke, Kansas, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State, UCLA are off low.

Ultimately, as others have said, we just have to play the games and play well. If we get to the second weekend, I'm happy it's in MSG.

I would be leery of Pomeroy's rankings (at least the very specific rankings) EVERY year. They are good for generalized "tiering". But saying that the #11 team in Pomeroy is better than the #12 team in Pomeroy is just not appropriate. There are just too many factors that Pomeroy does not, and cannot realistically, account for. Injuries being a big one. Lack of interconference matchups being another. Beating up on inferior competition is another.

I would say that we are currently underrated by Pomeroy (due to the injuries) and SMU is overrated by Pomeroy (inferior competition inflating their performance). For example, SMU has played only 3 teams in the RPI Top-50 (one of those teams 3 times) and are 2-3 in those games. They lost by 22 to Michigan on a neutral court. But because they play in the weak AAC, they beat up on bad teams and inflated their resume a bit.

I think I would reasonably group Duke with the 1s and 2s and SMU with the 4s and 5s. They aren't bad, but I think they are an example of the upper end of the variance in Pomeroy and we are an example of the lower end of the variance.

BandAlum83
03-13-2017, 02:55 PM
I Think you're Right.

I just filled out the bracket for my company and ended up with the same path.

BTW, I picked 7/16, 5/8, and 4/4 ACC schools in the sweet 16, elite 8 and Final 4 respectively.

Duke beats UNC for the Championship in the last Final 4 Carolina will see for at least 15 years.

FerryFor50
03-13-2017, 03:06 PM
I would be leery of Pomeroy's rankings (at least the very specific rankings) EVERY year. They are good for generalized "tiering". But saying that the #11 team in Pomeroy is better than the #12 team in Pomeroy is just not appropriate. There are just too many factors that Pomeroy does not, and cannot realistically, account for. Injuries being a big one. Lack of interconference matchups being another. Beating up on inferior competition is another.

I would say that we are currently underrated by Pomeroy (due to the injuries) and SMU is overrated by Pomeroy (inferior competition inflating their performance). For example, SMU has played only 3 teams in the RPI Top-50 (one of those teams 3 times) and are 2-3 in those games. They lost by 22 to Michigan on a neutral court. But because they play in the weak AAC, they beat up on bad teams and inflated their resume a bit.

I think I would reasonably group Duke with the 1s and 2s and SMU with the 4s and 5s. They aren't bad, but I think they are an example of the upper end of the variance in Pomeroy and we are an example of the lower end of the variance.

Agree with this. KenPom has been generally unreliable in picking games in the tourny, but this year at first look, it seems way off in terms of rankings vs. seeds.

CDu
03-13-2017, 03:11 PM
Agree with this. KenPom has been generally unreliable in picking games in the tourny, but this year at first look, it seems way off in terms of rankings vs. seeds.

Actually, Pomeroy's tourney picks have been pretty good. He gets about 50% of his 50/50 games right, about 60% of his 60/40 games right, and about 70% of his 70/30 games right. He hasn't had success picking the champion, but that's always a crapshoot in a single-elimination tournament.

Hingeknocker
03-13-2017, 03:11 PM
Agree with this. KenPom has been generally unreliable in picking games in the tourny, but this year at first look, it seems way off in terms of rankings vs. seeds.

Is there a system that is reliable in picking games in the tourney? I don't think this is a flaw unique to KenPom. As it is, KenPom's rankings performed admirably in our DBR betting contest.

I also don't think it's appropriate to say that KenPom's system doesn't do a good job of judging teams who play an inferior schedule, like an SMU or Wichita State. The whole point of KenPom's rankings is to adjust every single game's performance regardless of who the opponent was, so that you have a schedule-neutral ranking. Of course, it is still possible to play an easier or more difficult schedule within his rankings, but where a team is ranked has nothing to do with how easy their schedule was. You could argue that SMU would have fewer wins against a more difficult schedule, or if they played in the ACC, but the whole point is that his rankings aren't just based on your win/loss record. I'll let the man himself explain it better than I can: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/03/how_the_ncaa_abuses_statistics_to_stack_the_deck_a gainst_small_schools_like.html.

CDu
03-13-2017, 03:23 PM
Is there a system that is reliable in picking games in the tourney? I don't think this is a flaw unique to KenPom. As it is, KenPom's rankings performed admirably in our DBR betting contest.

I also don't think it's appropriate to say that KenPom's system doesn't do a good job of judging teams who play an inferior schedule, like an SMU or Wichita State. The whole point of KenPom's rankings is to adjust every single game's performance regardless of who the opponent was, so that you have a schedule-neutral ranking. Of course, it is still possible to play an easier or more difficult schedule within his rankings, but where a team is ranked has nothing to do with how easy their schedule was. You could argue that SMU would have fewer wins against a more difficult schedule, or if they played in the ACC, but the whole point is that his rankings aren't just based on your win/loss record. I'll let the man himself explain it better than I can: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/03/how_the_ncaa_abuses_statistics_to_stack_the_deck_a gainst_small_schools_like.html.

Totally agree on your first point. Disagree on the second. I'm quite familiar with Pomeroy's methodology. It is based on adjusted efficiency margins:how many points you score per 100 possessions and how many you allow per 100 possessions, adjusted as best possible to strength of competition (also measured by efficiency margin). The issue I was making is that Pomeroy's system is that the efficiency margin approach can get messy in two specific scenarios:
1. when one team is WAY better than another, such that much of the game is garbage time
2. when you play at a really slow pace, where end-game fouling has a bigger impact on efficiency margin than a game with more possessions

Teams like Gonzaga and SMU play in weak conferences (Gonzaga especially so), so #1 is always a challenge. Gonzaga plays relatively quickly, so #2 isn't an issue for them. But SMU is #330 in tempo, which means that they are inflated in both ways.

Don't get me wrong: I definitely prefer Pomeroy's approach to the RPI or other simple W/L-based rating systems. But there are still limitations with Pomeroy's approach that are worth noting and understanding. There isn't a perfect metric to rate these teams.

Hingeknocker
03-13-2017, 03:31 PM
Totally agree on your first point. Disagree on the second. I'm quite familiar with Pomeroy's methodology. It is based on adjusted efficiency margins:how many points you score per 100 possessions and how many you allow per 100 possessions, adjusted as best possible to strength of competition (also measured by efficiency margin). The issue I was making is that Pomeroy's system is that the efficiency margin approach can get messy in two specific scenarios:
1. when one team is WAY better than another, such that much of the game is garbage time
2. when you play at a really slow pace, where end-game fouling has a bigger impact on efficiency margin than a game with more possessions

Teams like Gonzaga and SMU play in weak conferences (Gonzaga especially so), so #1 is always a challenge. Gonzaga plays relatively quickly, so #2 isn't an issue for them. But SMU is #330 in tempo, which means that they are inflated in both ways.

Don't get me wrong: I definitely prefer Pomeroy's approach to the RPI or other simple W/L-based rating systems. But there are still limitations with Pomeroy's approach that are worth noting and understanding. There isn't a perfect metric to rate these teams.

These are good points, and I especially agree about the impact that pace can have on KenPom's overall rankings. For example, it is strange to see Virginia still ranked so highly this season. However, I think part of this is due to what you say about end-game fouling, but also has to do with a team's likelihood of winning (which, as a predictive measure of future performance, is really what KenPom is going for). UVA, by virtue of the way they play, is more likely to be in close games, which is rewarded by KenPom's system (win or lose, as long as you outperform the benchmark). This does present a challenge when trying to reconcile KenPom's rankings with how I "think" they should be, but I'm not certain that teams with slow pace shouldn't be rewarded in a system like his.

I am certain, however, that teams with a slow pace are boring as hell to watch play.

English
03-13-2017, 04:34 PM
These are good points, and I especially agree about the impact that pace can have on KenPom's overall rankings. For example, it is strange to see Virginia still ranked so highly this season. However, I think part of this is due to what you say about end-game fouling, but also has to do with a team's likelihood of winning (which, as a predictive measure of future performance, is really what KenPom is going for). UVA, by virtue of the way they play, is more likely to be in close games, which is rewarded by KenPom's system (win or lose, as long as you outperform the benchmark). This does present a challenge when trying to reconcile KenPom's rankings with how I "think" they should be, but I'm not certain that teams with slow pace shouldn't be rewarded in a system like his.

I am certain, however, that teams with a slow pace are boring as hell to watch play.

And far more unpredictable (or far less predictable, whatever your inclination) in a single-elimination tournament. One or two shots, bounces, loose balls, long rebounds, can decide the game one way or another when the tempo slows way down. This can even the talent disparity when a slow-tempo mid-major plays a high-flying top seed, for example. However, for a team like UVa, it frequently means they're in for a dogfight in every game. Of course, they're also used to the tight end-game scenarios, so they are less likely to collapse with the game on the line.

To give a recent example, this is essentially how UVa lost to Villanova earlier this season--despite controlling the game and leading by as many as 13pts in the second half, the Hoos' offense isn't built to put a team away. Nova eventually ground them down and caught up.

fuse
03-13-2017, 05:47 PM
I've moved on from the wow, this is a tough bracket to a let's prove it to the world attitude.

We'll be as rested as we've been since the season started.
Let's Go Duke!!!!

mr. synellinden
03-13-2017, 05:59 PM
I hate to look this far ahead, but just thinking about a potential matchup with Villanova -- I haven't seen mention of this elsewhere, Marquette did play them twice and beat them once.

I'm sure Coach K would have a nice scouting conversation with Wojo. Just a little nugget of an advantage.

jhmoss1812
03-13-2017, 06:07 PM
Aren't you happy not to see Michigan State in your bracket?

Not when you replace them with Villanova and Duke lol

jhmoss1812
03-13-2017, 06:13 PM
And far more unpredictable (or far less predictable, whatever your inclination) in a single-elimination tournament. One or two shots, bounces, loose balls, long rebounds, can decide the game one way or another when the tempo slows way down. This can even the talent disparity when a slow-tempo mid-major plays a high-flying top seed, for example. However, for a team like UVa, it frequently means they're in for a dogfight in every game. Of course, they're also used to the tight end-game scenarios, so they are less likely to collapse with the game on the line.

To give a recent example, this is essentially how UVa lost to Villanova earlier this season--despite controlling the game and leading by as many as 13pts in the second half, the Hoos' offense isn't built to put a team away. Nova eventually ground them down and caught up.

I get what you are saying and UVA has definitely given up its share of big leads this year but UVA also does have the 16th best margin of victory (+11.0 ppg) despite playing a top 5 SOS. Contrary to perception, we're just not in a dogfight every game.

Indoor66
03-13-2017, 06:56 PM
Not when you replace them with Villanova and Duke lol

But we guard the 3 point line!😛😈😎

JNort
03-13-2017, 08:04 PM
So Nova aside I love this draw!!!! Easy pickings compared to the other regions.

jacone21
03-13-2017, 09:43 PM
I hate to look this far ahead, but just thinking about a potential matchup with Villanova -- I haven't seen mention of this elsewhere, Marquette did play them twice and beat them once.

I'm sure Coach K would have a nice scouting conversation with Wojo. Just a little nugget of an advantage.

Wojo might be having a scouting conversation with himself soon. Is there anything Duke could throw at him Sunday that he doesn't already know frontwards and backwards? I know people are concerned about SC fans, but I'm not really looking forward to K vs Wojo either.

It would inhale vigorously to survive the Trojans only to have Wojo exploit K's Achilles heel.

sagegrouse
03-13-2017, 10:13 PM
Wojo might be having a scouting conversation with himself soon. Is there anything Duke could throw at him Sunday that he doesn't already know frontwards and backwards? I know people are concerned about SC fans, but I'm not really looking forward to K vs Wojo either.

It would inhale vigorously to survive the Trojans only to have Wojo exploit K's Achilles heel.

IIRC, Coach K has a phenomenal record against his former assistants. The exception, only recently, has been Mike Brey, but we beat Notre Dame twice this year.

Troublemaker
03-13-2017, 10:28 PM
Wojo might be having a scouting conversation with himself soon. Is there anything Duke could throw at him Sunday that he doesn't already know frontwards and backwards? I know people are concerned about SC fans, but I'm not really looking forward to K vs Wojo either.

It would inhale vigorously to survive the Trojans only to have Wojo exploit K's Achilles heel.

Duke actually has evolved a decent amount since Wojo was at Duke; he left before the 14-15 season. That summer of 2014 was when Coach K began working with Tom Thibodeau, who assisted Coach K during the World Championships for USA basketball. Coach has since mimicked some of Thibs' schemes on defense, and the 14-15 season was also when Coach K started to experiment more freely with zone.

BandAlum83
03-13-2017, 10:30 PM
But we guard the 3 point line!😛😈😎

And we've had some pretty impressive FT defense of late.

BandAlum83
03-13-2017, 10:31 PM
Wojo might be having a scouting conversation with himself soon. Is there anything Duke could throw at him Sunday that he doesn't already know frontwards and backwards? I know people are concerned about SC fans, but I'm not really looking forward to K vs Wojo either.

It would inhale vigorously to survive the Trojans only to have Wojo exploit K's Achilles heel.

Did K ever play zone while Wojo was here? Or did he start that in 2015?

ETA: Troublemaker answered my question before I asked it. Hmmm...

superdave
03-14-2017, 07:36 AM
If you want to use his site for picks, here's how he predicted the ACC tournament -

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 North Carolina 100 100 76.0 42.4 25.9
4 Louisville 100 100 62.9 34.0 20.0
6 Virginia 100 83.4 55.0 35.6 19.1
2 Florida St. 100 100 67.7 33.0 14.1
5 Duke 100 73.9 31.3 14.6 7.7
3 Notre Dame 100 100 40.7 19.3 6.8
10 Wake Forest 87.8 51.4 18.7 7.0 2.1
9 Miami FL 100 56.6 15.2 5.0 1.9
7 Virginia Tech 100 46.4 13.4 4.1 1.0
8 Syracuse 100 43.4 8.8 2.3 0.7
12 Clemson 72.1 22.4 5.5 1.6 0.5
14 Pittsburgh 52.9 9.4 2.6 0.6 0.09
11 Georgia Tech 47.1 7.1 1.7 0.4 0.05
13 North Carolina St. 27.9 3.6 0.3 0.04 0.009
15 Boston College 12.2 2.2 0.2 0.01 <.001

House P
03-14-2017, 03:46 PM
Looking for a reason to watch the play-in game between Mount St. Mary's and New Orleans? How about this.

This game features the two shortest starting players in the NCAA tournament. Christavious Gill of New Orleans is listed at 5-8 and Junior Robinson of Mount St. Mary's is listed at 5-5.

Both players average more than 30 minutes per game, but neither leads his team in assists. The assist leader for New Orleans is not the 5-8 Gill, but Travin Thibodeaux who is listed at 6-9, 240 lbs.

KenPom gives the winner of this game a 3% chance of beating Villanova in the next round.

DukieInBrasil
03-14-2017, 08:02 PM
...and so it begins, UNO goes down, losing to Mt St Mary's 67-66. UNO got a great stop and rebound and called TO with 2.9 seconds remaining. The baseline inbounds pass sailed high over the hands of the receiver at midcourt so UNO was unable to muster any sort of miracle. Now they're singin' the Basin St. blues...
Congrats to the winners of the 1st game in the 2017 tourney, Mt St Mary's!!!

BD80
03-14-2017, 08:44 PM
If you want to use his site for picks, here's how he predicted the ACC tournament -

Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 North Carolina 100 100 76.0 42.4 25.9

...

15 Boston College 12.2 2.2 0.2 0.01 <.001

BC is so bad ... (how bad are they?) ... they would not be a 100 even if they had a bye ...

Billy Dat
03-15-2017, 03:06 PM
The more I look at SMU, the more they seem poised to make some serious noise. They haven't lost in 2 months, and they have been beating teams up. The strength of their conference starts to matter less the more they win, it becomes a habit and reminds me of Butler in 2010 when they were on such a huge winning streak. They basically play a lot like us - 5 guys all around 6'5" to 6'7" but they all shoot 3s.

gam7
03-15-2017, 08:37 PM
I really wish the Iron Dukes would have waited until Sunday night to email me about tickets to the East Regional...

Olympic Fan
03-15-2017, 09:13 PM
Providence got off to a slow start, but now leads USC by 15 at the half in the last play-in game.

The winner gets SMU in the round of 64.

weezie
03-15-2017, 09:51 PM
I really wish the Iron Dukes would have waited until Sunday night to email me about tickets to the East Regional...


Kinda thought we'd be getting that one. Already decided it will likely be the secondary market for me if we get there.

rsvman
03-15-2017, 10:12 PM
The more I look at SMU, the more they seem poised to make some serious noise. They haven't lost in 2 months, and they have been beating teams up. The strength of their conference starts to matter less the more they win, it becomes a habit and reminds me of Butler in 2010 when they were on such a huge winning streak. They basically play a lot like us - 5 guys all around 6'5" to 6'7" but they all shoot 3s.

Yep. I think this is a pretty darned good team that will be challenging for whomever plays them.

duke4ever19
03-15-2017, 10:26 PM
A USC player walked through/by the already formed Providence huddle and had some words with a player or two on his way to the USC huddle. The replay definitely shows the USC player jawing/trash talking at the Providence guys.

Elmore said that was like when Grayson Allen walked through an NC State huddle earlier this year. "It's common courtesy" to go around the huddle, Elmore said.

However, I don't remember Allen doing any trash-talking in that situation. As I remember it, the NC State players were still making their way to the sideline (there wasn't a huddle yet) when Allen and a NC State player walked into each other and neither player initially attempted to go around the other. There was a brief "get out of my way/I don't want to be apart of this" hands in the air push away by Allen after they met, and the NC State player took exception and had to be lightly restrained/encouraged to not respond by an assistant coach.

Edit: Actually, it looks like a Providence player provoked it by bumping the USC player in the chest with his forearm.

Skitzle
03-16-2017, 06:39 AM
I don't know where to put this so I'm putting it here.

Everyone keeps saying that the national title winner tends to be in the kenpom top 20 in defense and offense efficiency because that is how it has always been, technically it's been true for 13 of the last 15 years (UNC was 21st in Defense in 2009, Uconn was 39 in Offense in 2014)

This stat would mean that "only" Villanova, Gonzaga, Wichita St and Kentucky have a real chance at winning the title.

But no one seems to mention or remember that Duke STARTED at 57 in 2015 and ended up at 12. Improving by a whopping 6 points per possession ON THE YEAR on defense and "keeping the narrative alive.

So does that incredble gain make you lose confidence in this stat? Cause it does for me..


Two other things:

1) Does anyone know what Duke's Def. Efficiency was during the 2015 NCAA Tournament?
2) Does anyone know what Duke's Def. Efficiency was during the 2017 ACC Tournament?

elvis14
03-16-2017, 06:46 AM
A USC player walked through/by the already formed Providence huddle and had some words with a player or two on his way to the USC huddle. The replay definitely shows the USC player jawing/trash talking at the Providence guys.

Elmore said that was like when Grayson Allen walked through an NC State huddle earlier this year. "It's common courtesy" to go around the huddle, Elmore said.

However, I don't remember Allen doing any trash-talking in that situation. As I remember it, the NC State players were still making their way to the sideline (there wasn't a huddle yet) when Allen and a NC State player walked into each other and neither player initially attempted to go around the other. There was a brief "get out of my way/I don't want to be apart of this" hands in the air push away by Allen after they met, and the NC State player took exception and had to be lightly restrained/encouraged to not respond by an assistant coach.

Edit: Actually, it looks like a Providence player provoked it by bumping the USC player in the chest with his forearm.

Elmore is such a Duke hating tool. When GA got bumped in front of the State bench, there was no huddle. When play stopped he as in the corner of the court near the State bench and headed straight for the Duke bench, didn't trash talk, etc. Even after he took the bump from the State player he didn't react much. That's so very different than a guy getting bumped, then pissed then breaking into a huddle to bark at the guy who bumped him. It's crap like this that makes me wish GA would come back for his Sr. season. I'd love to see him walk away with 3 rings.

Troublemaker
03-16-2017, 07:50 AM
I don't know where to put this so I'm putting it here.

Everyone keeps saying that the national title winner tends to be in the kenpom top 20 in defense and offense efficiency because that is how it has always been, technically it's been true for 13 of the last 15 years (UNC was 21st in Defense in 2009, Uconn was 39 in Offense in 2014)

This stat would mean that "only" Villanova, Gonzaga, Wichita St and Kentucky have a real chance at winning the title.

But no one seems to mention or remember that Duke STARTED at 57 in 2015 and ended up at 12. Improving by a whopping 6 points per possession ON THE YEAR on defense and "keeping the narrative alive.

So does that incredble gain make you lose confidence in this stat? Cause it does for me..

Absolutely. I think Kedsy has looked at pre-tourney numbers for champions and Final Four participants in a post recently, and your suspicion is correct that the pre-tourney ranges for those teams are wider.

It seems to me the Kenpom numbers are very sensitive to recent play. If you string together 2 or 3 great games, your numbers will move a decent amount. String together 6 games? You're a completely different team numbers-wise. I've seen someone compare this and Pomeroy to Chad Ford going back and editing his old mock drafts to resemble the actual drafts. That gave me a hearty chuckle.

Nosbleuatu
03-16-2017, 07:55 AM
I don't know where to put this so I'm putting it here.

Everyone keeps saying that the national title winner tends to be in the kenpom top 20 in defense and offense efficiency because that is how it has always been, technically it's been true for 13 of the last 15 years (UNC was 21st in Defense in 2009, Uconn was 39 in Offense in 2014)

This stat would mean that "only" Villanova, Gonzaga, Wichita St and Kentucky have a real chance at winning the title.

But no one seems to mention or remember that Duke STARTED at 57 in 2015 and ended up at 12. Improving by a whopping 6 points per possession ON THE YEAR on defense and "keeping the narrative alive.

So does that incredble gain make you lose confidence in this stat? Cause it does for me..


Two other things:

1) Does anyone know what Duke's Def. Efficiency was during the 2015 NCAA Tournament?
2) Does anyone know what Duke's Def. Efficiency was during the 2017 ACC Tournament?


Not a Kenpom insider, but has he ever provided something like a running average that measures Off./Def. efficiency over the last few weeks or months? Even with the smaller sample size, it may give a better sense of where teams are as they enter the tournament. It would be very interesting to see how it looks for a team like Duke in 2015 or 2017.

duketaylor
03-16-2017, 08:27 AM
https://www.ibm.com/blogs/business-analytics/mens-basketball-bracket/

Found it interestin and discussion worthy.

flyingdutchdevil
03-16-2017, 08:30 AM
https://www.ibm.com/blogs/business-analytics/mens-basketball-bracket/

Found it interestin and discussion worthy.

This is what $1.8B of develop costs can bring you: a computerized bracket that wasn't accurate, to say the least.

kmspeaks
03-16-2017, 09:33 AM
A USC player walked through/by the already formed Providence huddle and had some words with a player or two on his way to the USC huddle. The replay definitely shows the USC player jawing/trash talking at the Providence guys.

Elmore said that was like when Grayson Allen walked through an NC State huddle earlier this year. "It's common courtesy" to go around the huddle, Elmore said.

However, I don't remember Allen doing any trash-talking in that situation. As I remember it, the NC State players were still making their way to the sideline (there wasn't a huddle yet) when Allen and a NC State player walked into each other and neither player initially attempted to go around the other. There was a brief "get out of my way/I don't want to be apart of this" hands in the air push away by Allen after they met, and the NC State player took exception and had to be lightly restrained/encouraged to not respond by an assistant coach.

Edit: Actually, it looks like a Providence player provoked it by bumping the USC player in the chest with his forearm.

To summarize, according to the sports media: walking straight to your bench instead of going 30 feet out of your way to avoid a not yet formed huddle makes you one of the worst human beings to play the game of basketball, but sneaking into the huddle and pretending to be a member of the opposing team is hilarious (http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016/12/30/auburn-player-casually-snuck-georgias-huddle). Got it. :rolleyes:

duke4ever19
03-16-2017, 10:49 AM
To summarize, according to the sports media: walking straight to your bench instead of going 30 feet out of your way to avoid a not yet formed huddle makes you one of the worst human beings to play the game of basketball, but sneaking into the huddle and pretending to be a member of the opposing team is hilarious (http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016/12/30/auburn-player-casually-snuck-georgias-huddle). Got it. :rolleyes:

That's hysterical! I've never seen this.
It even looks like one of the Georgia players made eye-contact with him and still welcomed him in the huddle.

In other news, Bobby Hurley 2.0 is about to take the court for Notre Dame.

Doria
03-16-2017, 12:06 PM
To summarize, according to the sports media: walking straight to your bench instead of going 30 feet out of your way to avoid a not yet formed huddle makes you one of the worst human beings to play the game of basketball, but sneaking into the huddle and pretending to be a member of the opposing team is hilarious (http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016/12/30/auburn-player-casually-snuck-georgias-huddle). Got it. :rolleyes:

That is so funny! Just the action would be funny enough, but the apparent welcome he gets for a while makes it even funnier! What are those guys thinking?!

English
03-16-2017, 12:32 PM
Absolutely. I think Kedsy has looked at pre-tourney numbers for champions and Final Four participants in a post recently, and your suspicion is correct that the pre-tourney ranges for those teams are wider.

It seems to me the Kenpom numbers are very sensitive to recent play. If you string together 2 or 3 great games, your numbers will move a decent amount. String together 6 games? You're a completely different team numbers-wise. I've seen someone compare this and Pomeroy to Chad Ford going back and editing his old mock drafts to resemble the actual drafts. That gave me a hearty chuckle.

One little nit...Ken Pomeroy didn't create the narrative about his AdjO & AdjD ranking top-20s predicting the winners. I believe that was Luke Winn, and that was before 2009 when the first exception occurred. I'm not sure if Winn, or others, has acknowledged the flawed logic of using the top-20s to predict tournament success despite that narrative actually describing POST-tournament rankings. To date, KenPom still hasn't pushed this narrative as a feather in his algorithm's cap.

Completely different from the Chad Ford revisionist history, which he definitely did as a way to boost his brand.

mph
03-16-2017, 02:03 PM
Nice win by UVA against a tough UNC Wilmington team.

One UNC down. One to go.

AustinDevil
03-17-2017, 07:42 AM
The more I look at SMU, the more they seem poised to make some serious noise. They haven't lost in 2 months, and they have been beating teams up. The strength of their conference starts to matter less the more they win, it becomes a habit and reminds me of Butler in 2010 when they were on such a huge winning streak. They basically play a lot like us - 5 guys all around 6'5" to 6'7" but they all shoot 3s.

SMU also had an addition-by-subtraction issue, starting 4-3 with mediocre (not bad) losses to Michigan at MSG, and at SC and Boise. Then two unhappy Aussie freshmen transferred out after the semester, and SMU since is 26-1, losing only at Cincy in early January, by 2.

brevity
03-17-2017, 08:36 AM
SMU also had an addition-by-subtraction issue...

Already disappointed. I thought this post was going to be about Larry Brown.

CDu
03-17-2017, 09:11 AM
SMU also had an addition-by-subtraction issue, starting 4-3 with mediocre (not bad) losses to Michigan at MSG, and at SC and Boise. Then two unhappy Aussie freshmen transferred out after the semester, and SMU since is 26-1, losing only at Cincy in early January, by 2.

Well, it helps too that SMU has only played one top-50 school (3 times, but just the one school) since then as well. They had a LOT of fluff in their conference schedule. There is a good chance they would have lost at least two of those games (Michigan, @USC) and possibly all three (@Boise St) even without those Aussies.

AustinDevil
03-17-2017, 09:13 AM
Already disappointed. I thought this post was going to be about Larry Brown.

LOL--it is, sort of. Rumor has it the Aussies were disappointed in his departure, and that's why they showed up unmotivated and, in one case, 30 pounds overweight.

AustinDevil
03-17-2017, 09:15 AM
Well, it helps too that SMU has only played one top-50 school (3 times, but just the one school) since then as well. They had a LOT of fluff in their conference schedule. There is a good chance they would have lost at least two of those games (Michigan, @USC) and possibly all three (@Boise St) even without those Aussies.

Totally agree based on overall season statistics. Having seen them a lot, though, I'm telling you their playing style, cohesiveness, and every intangible is different and seems much, much better. We'll get a good measurement on that at 3:20 EDT today, of course, when the SMU/SC rematch tips off.

swood1000
03-17-2017, 09:32 AM
Obama has released his 2017 March Madness bracket (https://twitter.com/ObamaFoundation/status/842092182848864264/photo/1). He has UNC beating Duke in the men's championship game.

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7274&stc=1

flyingdutchdevil
03-17-2017, 09:36 AM
Obama has released his 2017 March Madness bracket (https://twitter.com/ObamaFoundation/status/842092182848864264/photo/1). He has UNC beating Duke in the men's championship game.

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7274&stc=1

He correctly picked the winner of the women's bracket.

Rich
03-17-2017, 10:26 AM
He correctly picked the winner of the women's bracket.

His choice for the men's bracket is fake news and an alternative fact.

duke79
03-17-2017, 10:37 AM
His choice for the men's bracket is fake news and an alternative fact.

LOL.........harsh.....but VERY true!

hudlow
03-17-2017, 10:44 AM
Obama has released his 2017 March Madness bracket (https://twitter.com/ObamaFoundation/status/842092182848864264/photo/1). He has UNC beating Duke in the men's championship game.


Bless his heart.