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SoCalDukeFan
03-06-2017, 06:51 PM
First of all I feel for the guy. Evidently at one time he was considered a potential NBA super star but suffered several devastating injuries.

But its hard for me to see why an NBA team would draft him in the first round. While he has shown a few flashes, much of the time he seems lost. He really is very inexperienced. The game has not slowed down for him. So do you draft him and send him to the D League and hope he develops and also not suffer another injury.

I know the NBA drafts on potential and maybe anyone after the first few picks is a gamble but its not one I would take.

SoCal

Jeffrey
03-06-2017, 06:55 PM
If you had seen Harry play in HS, then you may have a very different opinion. At 100%, Harry is spectacular!

Here's hoping we all see it next year at Duke!

Indoor66
03-06-2017, 07:08 PM
That was now three years ago.

SoCalDukeFan
03-06-2017, 07:26 PM
If you had seen Harry play in HS, then you may have a very different opinion. At 100%, Harry is spectacular!

Here's hoping we all see it next year at Duke!

For his sake I hope we see it all next year someplace. Duke would certainly be nice.

I have seen flashes of great athleticism. His potential when 100% is not my issue. My problem is that he often looks lost. My understanding is that he has played about one season since 9th grade. He has very little game experience against top talent. He needs to play against good players to adjust to the speed of the game. So an NBA team would need to send him to the D League and hope.

I know he is playing against top players in Duke practices but think he needs real game experience.

SoCal

duketaylor
03-06-2017, 08:35 PM
"I know he is playing against top players in Duke practices but think he needs real game experience."

Won't stop the NBA from taking him in the 1st round.

Indoor66
03-06-2017, 08:42 PM
Won't stop the NBA from taking him in the 1st round.

IMO, Harry Giles may have a great deal of basketball skill and potential but, to date, he has given no demonstration of the ability to assert those skills against high level competition. I cannot see how any GM could justify anything beyond their 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft - at a late first or, more appropriate, in the 2nd round.

mgtr
03-06-2017, 08:45 PM
I understand that the general approach is "take the money and run." Setting that aside, if possible, what is best for Harry Giles?

I don't know the answer to that, but I would guess he is gone. I sincerely hope that works out for him.

Green Wave Dukie
03-06-2017, 08:46 PM
If you had seen Harry play in HS, then you may have a very different opinion. At 100%, Harry is spectacular!

Here's hoping we all see it next year at Duke!

Word. Saw him twice.

MChambers
03-06-2017, 08:46 PM
IMO, Harry Giles may have a great deal of basketball skill and potential but, to date, he has given no demonstration of the ability to assert those skills against high level competition. I cannot see how any GM could justify anything beyond their 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft - at a late first or, more appropriate, in the 2nd round.
They could justify picking Harry based on his potential. He has far more potential than most players, and certainly more than almost any players who will be drafted after the first ten picks.

Don't forget that many first round picks don't make major contributions their first couple of years.

vick
03-06-2017, 08:50 PM
For his sake I hope we see it all next year someplace. Duke would certainly be nice.

I have seen flashes of great athleticism. His potential when 100% is not my issue. My problem is that he often looks lost. My understanding is that he has played about one season since 9th grade. He has very little game experience against top talent. He needs to play against good players to adjust to the speed of the game. So an NBA team would need to send him to the D League and hope.

I know he is playing against top players in Duke practices but think he needs real game experience.

SoCal

The D-League is real game experience though. Take a look at the top rookies (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&force%3Apos_is=1&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws) this year and you'll see plenty of players with D-league experience (McGruder, Harrison, etc.). It's not just a dumping ground for low-odds draft picks.

OZ
03-06-2017, 09:02 PM
If you had seen Harry play in HS, then you may have a very different opinion. At 100%, Harry is spectacular!

Here's hoping we all see it next year at Duke!


That was his JUNIOR year... He was injured his sophomore year and a second time the first scrimmage of his Senior year (resulting in yet another major surgery0; he then had additional surgery at Duke. He missed the entirety of his senior HS year, any summer scrimmages/pick-up at Duke and all of fall practice. He has gone through a lot of physical changes, injuries, pain and rehab since he last played HS ball. As much as I would like for him to come back next year, I hope he goes number one in the draft. I must admit, I am uncomfortable, FOR him, when he does play. There is always, that underlying concern, that he is going to reinjure himself. He seems like a great young man and I just hope whatever he decides, it works out for him.
Having said that, I agree with the above post... I just can't imagine a team taking him in the first round.

Troublemaker
03-06-2017, 09:07 PM
They could justify picking Harry based on his potential. He has far more potential than most players, and certainly more than almost any players who will be drafted after the first ten picks.

Don't forget that many first round picks don't make major contributions their first couple of years.

That's exactly right. While this draft is going to be deep, it's not sooooo deep that a team wouldn't take a chance on him in the 20s or more likely the teens of the first round.

It'd be mismanagement NOT to take the chance on Harry after the first 15 picks or so. At that point, it's low risk/cost, but potentially exceptionally high reward.

bob blue devil
03-06-2017, 09:34 PM
i believe everyone who doubts harry is worthy of a lottery pick will feel quite foolish 3 years from now (if not next season). i look forward to continuing to root for this likable kid and watching him grow.

SoCalDukeFan
03-06-2017, 09:51 PM
Word. Saw him twice.

what level of competition?

chrishoke
03-06-2017, 09:57 PM
If you had seen Harry play in HS, then you may have a very different opinion. At 100%, Harry is spectacular!

Here's hoping we all see it next year at Duke!

Reminder - Chris Burgess

subzero02
03-06-2017, 10:00 PM
i believe everyone who doubts harry is worthy of a lottery pick will feel quite foolish 3 years from now (if not next season). i look forward to continuing to root for this likable kid and watching him grow.

I agree. I have seen glimpses this year. The kid has tremendous rebounding potential and at least once a game, will snag a board by jumping higher and faster than everyone else on the court.

UrinalCake
03-06-2017, 10:13 PM
I think there are three questions that NBA GM's will want answers to:

1. Can Harry make the adjustment to the college and then the NBA level, or was he one of those players who relied on his physical advantages in high school but would have had less success against similar athletes even without all the injuries? There are plenty of examples of guys who look amazing in high school but don't make the transition.

2. Can he ever fully recover from his injuries, or has he permanently lost that lateral quickness and explosiveness?

3. Is he at risk of another injury?

These are legitimate questions. And Harry has nothing to demonstrate positive answers to these questions over the past two months IMO. I wouldn't waste a lottery pick on him when there will be many other quality players available who don't have these question marks. Maybe an end of the first round team which already has its roster set would take a flyer on him.

OZ
03-06-2017, 11:22 PM
i believe everyone who doubts harry is worthy of a lottery pick will feel quite foolish 3 years from now (if not next season). i look forward to continuing to root for this likable kid and watching him grow.


If Giles is indeed a first round pick and becomes a success, I will be the first to GLADLY say that I was wrong; and NO ONE will be happier for him than I.

KandG
03-06-2017, 11:36 PM
Chad Ford's latest Big Board has Giles going at 13:

"NBA scouts aren't sure what to do with Giles at this point. He plays sporadic minutes for Duke, shows flashes of his old self but is still largely ineffective when he's on the court. He still has the motor that intrigued coming into the season, but his explosiveness and feel just aren't there yet.

Everything on paper screams that Giles needs another year at Duke to really reach his potential. But NBA teams are also aware of just how much potential he has and a number of them told me they'd be willing to gamble on him if he falls outside the top 10"

Unless there are further red flags revealed by a physical, I'd definitely draft him if I were an NBA GM drafting around 8 or lower. The reality is that even the best athletes take a good year to come back fully from the types of surgeries Harry's had, and in most cases that's guys who already have ready made NBA games like Jabari. The whole situation has been very unfortunate for Duke and Coach K, but I assume Harry will be fine a year or two down the road.

Kedsy
03-07-2017, 12:35 AM
Unless there are further red flags revealed by a physical...

I think this is the key. Things will continue to look murky for Harry until he goes through his series of NBA physicals.

SoCalDukeFan
03-07-2017, 01:08 AM
that he is really healthy. I hope he does well. I would love to see him at Duke nest year. I also hope to see him make a bunch of NBA All Star teams.
I am also not down on him. He may be a great guy and a true student athlete.

Right now though I think he looks a lot like Kwame Browne.

It is funny that the NBA dropped the one and done and can now see how guys do in college but would draft a guy that has hardly played.

SoCal

mgtr
03-07-2017, 01:49 AM
It is funny that the NBA dropped the one and done and can now see how guys do in college but would draft a guy that has hardly played.

SoCal

Did you mean that the NBA dropped the none and done?

Green Wave Dukie
03-07-2017, 02:12 AM
what level of competition?

High school - was responding to Jeffreys previous post.

Not trying to make a correlation between how good he was when I saw him live 3-4 years ago against his fellow 16-18 year olds, and whether he should be drafted 100 days from now to play at the highest level in the world. Just saying he was spectacular back then.

I've personally been quite surprised by his level of play. In my untrained and unprofessional opinion, he just hasn't recovered anywhere near 100%. He doesn't have the explosiveness, and mainly the confidence, in his knees, that he used to. But I sure hope for his sake he regains it, whether coming back at Duke next year (which I am starting to think is at least a possibility of happening - and that 1 year ago I thought had as much chance of happening as Bilas coming down hard - and fair - on the Tarheels), or in the pros.

Nugget
03-07-2017, 03:23 AM
Chad Ford's latest Big Board has Giles going at 13:

"NBA scouts aren't sure what to do with Giles at this point. He plays sporadic minutes for Duke, shows flashes of his old self but is still largely ineffective when he's on the court. He still has the motor that intrigued coming into the season, but his explosiveness and feel just aren't there yet.

Everything on paper screams that Giles needs another year at Duke to really reach his potential. But NBA teams are also aware of just how much potential he has and a number of them told me they'd be willing to gamble on him if he falls outside the top 10"

Unless there are further red flags revealed by a physical, I'd definitely draft him if I were an NBA GM drafting around 8 or lower. The reality is that even the best athletes take a good year to come back fully from the types of surgeries Harry's had, and in most cases that's guys who already have ready made NBA games like Jabari. The whole situation has been very unfortunate for Duke and Coach K, but I assume Harry will be fine a year or two down the road.

I agree with this in all respects.

It's been bad for Harry and disappointing for Duke.

Harry looks like a shell of himself.

There is no way to know if this is just the result of an ACL really being a 2 season injury till you are back in form or if he's permanently lost it a bit.

With all that said, no way he doesn't get picked top 15 on "potential" anyway.

I didn't see Harry in HS except on tv, but in addition to Webber the guy he really reminded me of was high school Ed O'Bannon. Ed was truly dazzling as a high schooler. He blew out his knee before playing a game at UCLA and was out for almost two years. And, like Harry, when he came back he was very rusty - only averaged 4 points a game. He progressively got better the next 3 years, getting all-conf as a Sophomore up to winning national POY as a Senior. I could see the same progression for Harry.

But, to be honest, as great as Ed O became at UCLA, I don't think he was ever physically quite the same as before the ACL. Hopefully, Harry will fare better.

DukieInBrasil
03-07-2017, 07:58 AM
Is there not a significant salary scale difference between different draft spots? Picks in the "Lottery" are guaranteed certain contract dollars and those later in the first round max out at lower dollars, and then 2nd round picks aren't even guaranteed contracts?
So my question is: if Harry and/or the Duke staff thinks he could get drafted, say, top-5 (or whatever the highest draft contract level is) next year vs. getting drafted say #18 this year, what would the maximum contract difference be during the years before Harry is done with his rookie contract, and therefore eligible for big raises after that?
That seems to be a relevant question to me.

Troublemaker
03-07-2017, 08:00 AM
Chad Ford's latest Big Board has Giles going at 13:

"NBA scouts aren't sure what to do with Giles at this point. He plays sporadic minutes for Duke, shows flashes of his old self but is still largely ineffective when he's on the court. He still has the motor that intrigued coming into the season, but his explosiveness and feel just aren't there yet.

Everything on paper screams that Giles needs another year at Duke to really reach his potential. But NBA teams are also aware of just how much potential he has and a number of them told me they'd be willing to gamble on him if he falls outside the top 10"

Unless there are further red flags revealed by a physical, I'd definitely draft him if I were an NBA GM drafting around 8 or lower. The reality is that even the best athletes take a good year to come back fully from the types of surgeries Harry's had, and in most cases that's guys who already have ready made NBA games like Jabari. The whole situation has been very unfortunate for Duke and Coach K, but I assume Harry will be fine a year or two down the road.


I agree with this in all respects.

It's been bad for Harry and disappointing for Duke.

Harry looks like a shell of himself.

There is no way to know if this is just the result of an ACL really being a 2 season injury till you are back in form or if he's permanently lost it a bit.

With all that said, no way he doesn't get picked top 15 on "potential" anyway.

I didn't see Harry in HS except on tv, but in addition to Webber the guy he really reminded me of was high school Ed O'Bannon. Ed was truly dazzling as a high schooler. He blew out his knee before playing a game at UCLA and was out for almost two years. And, like Harry, when he came back he was very rusty - only averaged 4 points a game. He progressively got better the next 3 years, getting all-conf as a Sophomore up to winning national POY as a Senior. I could see the same progression for Harry.

But, to be honest, as great as Ed O became at UCLA, I don't think he was ever physically quite the same as before the ACL. Hopefully, Harry will fare better.

I basically agree with y'all, as I wrote upthread.

It might be interesting, though, to match some names to the area where we would take Harry. So, for example, here is the DraftExpress Mock Draft that was posted. (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft.php/2017/list/)

Frank Ntilikina at #11 is basically the last prospect on the list that I would take before Harry, given Harry's upside. So I would draft Harry #12. Anybody #12 or below in that mock draft is someone I would pass over for the chance at rolling the dice on Harry. #12 is Miles Bridges in that mock. Solid small forward prospect, for sure. But, no thanks. I'll take Harry and see if he can recover the explosiveness from high school.

chrishoke
03-07-2017, 09:11 AM
john Collins and Justin Jackson are two I would clearly take beforre Giles

bob blue devil
03-07-2017, 09:33 AM
...I am also not down on him...

...Right now though I think he looks a lot like Kwame Browne.


just stop. please. you do not think harry is going to be a decent pro; fine. i don't see any reason to keep repeating it without providing actual intelligent analysis of his skills, etc. to support your view, and there is certainly no need to insult him by comparing him to an all-time draft bust.

what i see when i watch harry is a guy where the game is moving a bit too fast at times and a guy who has not been a focal point of our offense. none of this is surprising giving his time away from the game/the point of rehab he is in - remember quinn cook his freshman year who had a much better opportunity to get into game shape. so harry is out of position and fouls on defense and sometimes seems a bit hurried when the ball gets near him on offense. but, i really do believe that's the result of where he is in his rehab. harry's measurables are fantastic - nba star. his production while on the court hints at his abilities. his offensive rebounding rate, at 16.9% would be rock star if he played more. for reference, that would be #4 in the country behind john collins. his defensive rebounding rate is very respectable at 21.6% - that would put him 7th in the acc. he's shown a lot of skill around the basket - if you ignore his first 5 games back, he's shooting over 68% from the field (75% if you just look at feb & mar); granted he's not been asked to do much, but he's been fluid and coordinated out there. i think the poor guy just needs more reps and time, for the pressure to be the best player in the class to be off his back, and to be in a situation where the stakes of every game don't feel so high.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-07-2017, 09:48 AM
I honestly don't see how anyone here can have an opinion of what sort of pro Giles will be. Clearly, he isn't close to rehabbed and healthy yet, and it seems ludicrous to base his professional career potential on several years ago against high school competition.

We can root for him, we can be frustrated with the circumstances of the season, we can debate whether it makes sense for him to go into the draft, but to state matter-of-fact that he is a future NBA all star or a bust seems like just complete guess work.

I like Giles - loved his article earlier in the season about his Duke experience. I can only imagine this season has gone nothing like he expected... like the rest of the Duke players and coaches, nothing has gone according to plan. I wish him the best regardless of how things go this month and beyond.

I also don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that he looks at the games in front of him as a challenge to validate his recruiting and his draft stock, and he may yet eliminate the doubters.

This is that weird spot in the season where we might only have two games left, or we might be cheering for another month. Some players have been known to really step up.

flyingdutchdevil
03-07-2017, 09:52 AM
I honestly don't see how anyone here can have an opinion of what sort of pro Giles will be. Clearly, he isn't close to rehabbed and healthy yet, and it seems ludicrous to base his professional career potential on several years ago against high school competition.

We can root for him, we can be frustrated with the circumstances of the season, we can debate whether it makes sense for him to go into the draft, but to state matter-of-fact that he is a future NBA all star or a bust seems like just complete guess work.

I like Giles - loved his article earlier in the season about his Duke experience. I can only imagine this season has gone nothing like he expected... like the rest of the Duke players and coaches, nothing has gone according to plan. I wish him the best regardless of how things go this month and beyond.

I also don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that he looks at the games in front of him as a challenge to validate his recruiting and his draft stock, and he may yet eliminate the doubters.

This is that weird spot in the season where we might only have two games left, or we might be cheering for another month. Some players have been known to really step up.

But nothing, NOTHING indicates that that player will be Giles. It could easily be Jackson, who showed us a fantastic couple of games. If could be Matt Jones, who will rediscover his shot. If could be Amile, who could regain mid-season form.

But nothing suggests Giles. And doing so is based on faith alone and nothing else.

Clearly 3 surgeries and 2 bad knees has taken its toll. Rehab will take years.

I don't see Giles being a game changer over the next month. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

cato
03-07-2017, 09:56 AM
Duke defense is challenging to learn for any freshman big. When you miss the start of the season, it is probably impossible.

Without being plugged in on defense, Giles can't get in the flow. Regardless of where he is physically, things are not clicking, and that will impact everything.

This year must be very trying for young Mr. Giles, and it certainly raises concerns about his future in the NBA. That said, he is still very young. Why don't we focus on the rest of the season, and then see how things develop for Harry?

Steven43
03-07-2017, 10:03 AM
that he is really healthy. I hope he does well. I would love to see him at Duke nest year. I also hope to see him make a bunch of NBA All Star teams.
I am also not down on him. He may be a great guy and a true student athlete.

Right now though I think he looks a lot like Kwame Browne.

It is funny that the NBA dropped the one and done and can now see how guys do in college but would draft a guy that has hardly played.

SoCal
If Giles stays does Duke lose Bamba for certain?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-07-2017, 10:05 AM
But nothing, NOTHING indicates that that player will be Giles. It could easily be Jackson, who showed us a fantastic couple of games. If could be Matt Jones, who will rediscover his shot. If could be Amile, who could regain mid-season form.

But nothing suggests Giles. And doing so is based on faith alone and nothing else.

Clearly 3 surgeries and 2 bad knees has taken its toll. Rehab will take years.

I don't see Giles being a game changer over the next month. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

I agree that Jackson is the most likely Zoubek, but stranger things have happened. I do think that our best chance at winning it all involves an epic run by someone not named Grayson, Luke, or Jason. That leaves several options, one of whom could be Harry.

Edouble
03-07-2017, 10:13 AM
Is there not a significant salary scale difference between different draft spots? Picks in the "Lottery" are guaranteed certain contract dollars and those later in the first round max out at lower dollars, and then 2nd round picks aren't even guaranteed contracts?
So my question is: if Harry and/or the Duke staff thinks he could get drafted, say, top-5 (or whatever the highest draft contract level is) next year vs. getting drafted say #18 this year, what would the maximum contract difference be during the years before Harry is done with his rookie contract, and therefore eligible for big raises after that?
That seems to be a relevant question to me.

That is the relevant question for every player except Giles. Because of his history of injury, if Giles thinks he can get picked #18, he should certainly go pro this year. He needs to get a first round contract, and the money it provides, in case he is reinjured and his professional career is cut short.

I think your question is relevant for a player like Allen or Kennard.

And to answer your question, the difference in money is about $4.5 million over three years for the 18th pick, versus $10 million over three years for the 5th pick. So the question becomes, will X player earm more than $5.5 million per year over his first non-rookie contract, to make up for the extra year spent in college that was used to beef up his draft position? Most likely-- Yes.

So take the jump.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

Troublemaker
03-07-2017, 10:19 AM
If Giles stays does Duke lose Bamba for certain?

Nothing in life is certain but it would seem very unlikely that Duke could have more than 2 of Carter, Bolden, Giles, and Bamba on the roster next season.

DukieInBrasil
03-07-2017, 10:20 AM
That is the relevant question for every player except Giles. Because of his history of injury, if Giles thinks he can get picked #18, he should certainly go pro this year. He needs to get a first round contract, and the money it provides, in case he is reinjured and his professional career is cut short.

I think your question is relevant for a player like Allen or Kennard.

And to answer your question, the difference in money is about $4.5 million over three years for the 18th pick, versus $10 million over three years for the 5th pick. So the question becomes, will X player earm more than $5.5 million per year over his first non-rookie contract, to make up for the extra year spent in college that was used to beef up his draft position? Most likely-- Yes.

So take the jump.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

good info. Thanks.
Also, thanks for ruining my dream! Seems like that kinda money is hard to turn down. I know i wouldn't. I mean if i could get drafted out of grad school for $5.5M/yr to do agroforestry in Brasil and have to forego writing my dissertation, pshhff, no-brainer.

devildeac
03-07-2017, 10:34 AM
Nothing in life is certain but it would seem very unlikely that Duke could have more than 2 of Carter, Bolden, Giles, and Bamba on the roster next season.

If I (gently) twisted your arm (or tripped you:rolleyes:) and bought you a beer, which 2 would you choose? ;)

(and what happens to Chase?)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-07-2017, 10:41 AM
If I (gently) twisted your arm (or tripped you:rolleyes:) and bought you a beer, which 2 would you choose? ;)

(and what happens to Chase?)

Not addressed to me, but I would take a second year from existing players for a boatload of reasons. Both would be even more familiar with offense and defense, both would be determined to prove themselves beyond what happened this year, and both would have an extra year of Duke weight work and training.

sammy3469
03-07-2017, 10:44 AM
That is the relevant question for every player except Giles. Because of his history of injury, if Giles thinks he can get picked #18, he should certainly go pro this year. He needs to get a first round contract, and the money it provides, in case he is reinjured and his professional career is cut short.

I think your question is relevant for a player like Allen or Kennard.

And to answer your question, the difference in money is about $4.5 million over three years for the 18th pick, versus $10 million over three years for the 5th pick. So the question becomes, will X player earm more than $5.5 million per year over his first non-rookie contract, to make up for the extra year spent in college that was used to beef up his draft position? Most likely-- Yes.

So take the jump.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

FYI: those are the old rookie scale numbers. The new ones go up 45% over a 3 year period. I have no idea how that affects the analysis of these kids (my guess is not much), but the incentive to be at the top of the draft has gone up even more in pure dollar terms.

Troublemaker
03-07-2017, 10:56 AM
If I (gently) twisted your arm (or tripped you:rolleyes:) and bought you a beer, which 2 would you choose? ;)


If you're asking what I think is most likely, it'd be Carter and Bolden.

If you're asking what I want to see happen, well, it's a long answer. I would like to see, starting tomorrow, Marques supplant Harry as the main backup big man and ignite Duke's defense for the rest of the season the way he did in the second half of the first Miami game. I've been harboring a suspicion for awhile now that this is very possible. Bolden's playing time is basically the only time in many years that I've been harshly critical of Coach K (but, as I've written before -- just because I've gone a long time doesn't mean I'm right). Duke wins the national championship having been emBoldened to play great defense, and Marques raises his stock into the first round and leaves. Harry is motivated by what Marques did and by the "overrated" chant to return to college for one more season and show college basketball his true self. Two years removed from ACL surgery, he does just that, recovering his lost explosiveness, dominating, and teaming with Carter to form Duke's best post duo in many years, possibly ever. So, to answer your question, Carter and Giles is my preference.

SoCalDukeFan
03-07-2017, 11:11 AM
just stop. please. you do not think harry is going to be a decent pro; fine. i don't see any reason to keep repeating it without providing actual intelligent analysis of his skills, etc. to support your view, and there is certainly no need to insult him by comparing him to an all-time draft bust.

what i see when i watch harry is a guy where the game is moving a bit too fast at times and a guy who has not been a focal point of our offense. none of this is surprising giving his time away from the game/the point of rehab he is in - remember quinn cook his freshman year who had a much better opportunity to get into game shape. so harry is out of position and fouls on defense and sometimes seems a bit hurried when the ball gets near him on offense. but, i really do believe that's the result of where he is in his rehab. harry's measurables are fantastic - nba star. his production while on the court hints at his abilities. his offensive rebounding rate, at 16.9% would be rock star if he played more. for reference, that would be #4 in the country behind john collins. his defensive rebounding rate is very respectable at 21.6% - that would put him 7th in the acc. he's shown a lot of skill around the basket - if you ignore his first 5 games back, he's shooting over 68% from the field (75% if you just look at feb & mar); granted he's not been asked to do much, but he's been fluid and coordinated out there. i think the poor guy just needs more reps and time, for the pressure to be the best player in the class to be off his back, and to be in a situation where the stakes of every game don't feel so high.

I did mean early that the NBA has dropped "none and done."

I am not saying the Harry will not be a very good pro eventually. I agree with you that he needs "reps and time. " I don't see him getting them in the NBA next year so I would have a hard time using a first round draft pick on a guy headed to the D League. I have seen flashes of great athleticism from him. I would rather he came back to Duke, worked all summer and showed the world what he could do.

SoCal

wavedukefan70s
03-07-2017, 11:35 AM
I hope he gets the big money and develops into a superstar.
Could lead to a few future superstars sign at duke.😆

dudog84
03-07-2017, 11:52 AM
So many things go into this decision. Does he like school? Does his family need the money? Where will he go in the draft? etc. etc.

I think if he comes back healthy and has even a decent year, he will be the #1 pick next year. Because all of the above questions will be answered. There's a lot of money at stake between #1 and say #12. Also think about the difference in endorsement potential. But then there is also the prospect of getting to his second NBA contract a year earlier, and that's where the crazy money is (although millions for a rookie contract is crazy money). But if he's not 100%, the NBA season is over twice as long and he'll be getting pounded on by men all that time. Would going too early put his knees at risk and cost him money down the line?

While I am biased and would obviously like to see him at Duke another year, I honestly think he should come back. Show everyone you're healthy, go #1, be a year closer to your degree if that means anything to you. Get a $10 or $20 million insurance plan so that if the worst occurs you'll still be ok for life. The #12 draft pick is guaranteed less than $4 million this year. That's a lot of money, but an NBA star will make hundreds of millions.

In the end, it is a decision only he can make and he will have to live with it. He seems like a good kid, I wish him the best whatever he decides.

devildeac
03-07-2017, 12:00 PM
If you're asking what I think is most likely, it'd be Carter and Bolden.

If you're asking what I want to see happen, well, it's a long answer. I would like to see, starting tomorrow, Marques supplant Harry as the main backup big man and ignite Duke's defense for the rest of the season the way he did in the second half of the first Miami game. I've been harboring a suspicion for awhile now that this is very possible. Bolden's playing time is basically the only time in many years that I've been harshly critical of Coach K (but, as I've written before -- just because I've gone a long time doesn't mean I'm right). Duke wins the national championship having been emBoldened to play great defense, and Marques raises his stock into the first round and leaves. Harry is motivated by what Marques did and by the "overrated" chant to return to college for one more season and show college basketball his true self. Two years removed from ACL surgery, he does just that, recovering his lost explosiveness, dominating, and teaming with Carter to form Duke's best post duo in many years, possibly ever. So, to answer your question, Carter and Giles is my preference.

Both very interesting takes, thinking or wanting, short or long. Thanks!

Now, about Chase...

;)

KandG
03-07-2017, 12:47 PM
harry's measurables are fantastic - nba star. his production while on the court hints at his abilities. his offensive rebounding rate, at 16.9% would be rock star if he played more. for reference, that would be #4 in the country behind john collins. his defensive rebounding rate is very respectable at 21.6% - that would put him 7th in the acc. he's shown a lot of skill around the basket - if you ignore his first 5 games back, he's shooting over 68% from the field (75% if you just look at feb & mar); granted he's not been asked to do much, but he's been fluid and coordinated out there. i think the poor guy just needs more reps and time, for the pressure to be the best player in the class to be off his back, and to be in a situation where the stakes of every game don't feel so high.





I don't see Giles being a game changer over the next month. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

I think it's possible to squint and see the glimmers of stardom that lurk in the very limited things Harry has done well for Duke to date, while fully doubting he'll contribute anything significant in Duke's remaining games.

Some of the mistakes Harry makes when he fouls promiscuously are simply re-learning his body and how to move against a level of competition he's never faced before -- you'll see him go over the back of players for offensive rebounds he has no business going after, for example. These are things he'll learn to do better and smarter, and to some degree he's already gotten better in just a couple of months.

I don't think K has a dramatic issue with the mistakes of overaggressiveness around the boards or while playing defense in the post. The real alarm bells are how Harry moves when he's out in space, on both offense and defense (especially the latter). Anytime he's switched out onto a guard/wing, or has to hedge and recover, his instincts too often lead to a disastrous result. Plus his lateral movement in space just isn't there now...he either gives up straight line drives with little resistance, or leaves wide open shooters on confused switches.

Note that our wing play on both ends hasn't done him too many favors: we have amazing scorers on the team, but the ability to make a pocket pass or a reliable lob when crowded on the pick and roll is somewhat lacking, and Harry could benefit from more opportunities for easy baskets that take advantage of his (improving) bounciness. (Grayson showed signs of developing some nice chemistry with Harry, but Grayson's injury issues curtailed their minutes together). And on defense, our much discussed inability to contain dribble penetration has put Harry into his share of unfavorable situations.

If I'm K trying to win a game, I can hardly fault him for riding Amile given how crucial he is to plugging the holes in our leaky defense. Harry's day will have to come when he's healed and developed on an NBA team.

Gooch
03-07-2017, 12:56 PM
I think it's possible to squint and see the glimmers of stardom that lurk in the very limited things Harry has done well for Duke to date, while fully doubting he'll contribute anything significant in Duke's remaining games.

...

Note that our wing play on both ends hasn't done him too many favors: we have amazing scorers on the team, but the ability to make a pocket pass or a reliable lob when crowded on the pick and roll is somewhat lacking, and Harry could benefit from more opportunities for easy baskets that take advantage of his (improving) bounciness. (Grayson showed signs of developing some nice chemistry with Harry, but Grayson's injury issues curtailed their minutes together). And on defense, our much discussed inability to contain dribble penetration has put Harry into his share of unfavorable situations.



I agree with this wholeheartedly. It seems like our opponents are much better at the under-the-basket passes/lobs to their bigs, I guess it is because we have trouble stopping dribble penetration so the guards have open looks. In the very rare occasions we've seen Harry get the ball on offense I have been impressed with his instincts (even a mid-range jumper).

Matches
03-07-2017, 01:21 PM
Get a $10 or $20 million insurance plan so that if the worst occurs you'll still be ok for life.

This idea gets tossed around a lot and may be an option for some people. Can't imagine it's an option for Giles though given his injury history. What sane insurer would write that policy?

yancem
03-07-2017, 02:26 PM
This idea gets tossed around a lot and may be an option for some people. Can't imagine it's an option for Giles though given his injury history. What sane insurer would write that policy?

The question shouldn't be so much as what sane insurer would write that policy so much as how much would said sane insurer charge for said policy? Insurance companies will insure just about anything as long as the premiums are high enough. Actuaries make really good money running these types of numbers and insurance is pretty much a form of gambling.

bluenorth
03-07-2017, 04:20 PM
So many things go into this decision. Does he like school? Does his family need the money? Where will he go in the draft? etc. etc.

I think if he comes back healthy and has even a decent year, he will be the #1 pick next year. Because all of the above questions will be answered. There's a lot of money at stake between #1 and say #12. Also think about the difference in endorsement potential. But then there is also the prospect of getting to his second NBA contract a year earlier, and that's where the crazy money is (although millions for a rookie contract is crazy money). But if he's not 100%, the NBA season is over twice as long and he'll be getting pounded on by men all that time. Would going too early put his knees at risk and cost him money down the line?

While I am biased and would obviously like to see him at Duke another year, I honestly think he should come back. Show everyone you're healthy, go #1, be a year closer to your degree if that means anything to you. Get a $10 or $20 million insurance plan so that if the worst occurs you'll still be ok for life. The #12 draft pick is guaranteed less than $4 million this year. That's a lot of money, but an NBA star will make hundreds of millions.

In the end, it is a decision only he can make and he will have to live with it. He seems like a good kid, I wish him the best whatever he decides.

So many variables are involved, including who else might come out early and what the needs of the various NBA teams are. That said, somewhere an NBA GM or coach will look at Giles and say "Project - but one that I can make pay off". I believe that he will be drafted, but not early enough to be a lottery pick. I'm guessing that at the end of the day it will come down to family. As you noted, does his family need the money and if so do they need it immediately?

gam7
03-07-2017, 04:54 PM
So many variables are involved, including who else might come out early and what the needs of the various NBA teams are. That said, somewhere an NBA GM or coach will look at Giles and say "Project - but one that I can make pay off". I believe that he will be drafted, but not early enough to be a lottery pick. I'm guessing that at the end of the day it will come down to family. As you noted, does his family need the money and if so do they need it immediately?

Except for an extremely small number of players, the "immediate family need" justification for leaving is hog wash (and I don't think I've heard it for many years - though I admit I don't keep tabs on all early entrants' reasoning for leaving early). Back when it was less acceptable for players to leave college early, it became kind of the de facto, straw man justification for leaving that fans/schools/outsiders couldn't publicly refute, but knew it wasn't really the reason. Kind of like, "my twitter account was hacked" when someone accidentally creates a s---storm with a tweet, or "I didn't know what I was putting in my body" for players testing positive for PEDs. I haven't heard this justification recently, I presume, because it has become more acceptable for players to justify leaving based purely on the economics.

BandAlum83
03-07-2017, 05:23 PM
Except for an extremely small number of players, the "immediate family need" justification for leaving is hog wash (and I don't think I've heard it for many years - though I admit I don't keep tabs on all early entrants' reasoning for leaving early). Back when it was less acceptable for players to leave college early, it became kind of the de facto, straw man justification for leaving that fans/schools/outsiders couldn't publicly refute, but knew it wasn't really the reason. Kind of like, "my twitter account was hacked" when someone accidentally creates a s---storm with a tweet, or "I didn't know what I was putting in my body" for players testing positive for PEDs. I haven't heard this justification recently, I presume, because it has become more acceptable for players to justify leaving based purely on the economics.

Many years ago, wasn't there an official hardship exemption which allowed players to declare early? Like they weren't allowed to go early without it?

dudog84
03-07-2017, 06:14 PM
This idea gets tossed around a lot and may be an option for some people. Can't imagine it's an option for Giles though given his injury history. What sane insurer would write that policy?

I have no idea how these policies work (if only I had a skill that warranted one!), but I imagine it could be structured for different layers of payout. Bad injury that keeps you out a year gives this payout, smaller injury that hurts draft stock gives that payout. I really don't see him having a career-ending injury, I sure hope not for his sake. He'll play somewhere someday and make a lot of money. The question is how much.

duke4ever19
03-07-2017, 06:37 PM
I honestly don't see how anyone here can have an opinion of what sort of pro Giles will be.

This.

Even the tantalizing footage of a dominant Giles is from his junior year in High School. He plays with a brace, which hinders his lateral ability. He's missed a good chunk of the one season he's played in college and the minutes he has played have been limited. For every "Ooh, that's an NBA lottery-level shot" there's a "I hope Jefferson gets back in the game soon, this guys is missing assignments all over the place."

Des Esseintes
03-07-2017, 06:41 PM
I have no idea how these policies work (if only I had a skill that warranted one!), but I imagine it could be structured for different layers of payout. Bad injury that keeps you out a year gives this payout, smaller injury that hurts draft stock gives that payout. I really don't see him having a career-ending injury, I sure hope not for his sake. He'll play somewhere someday and make a lot of money. The question is how much.

It's my understanding, which could easily be wrong, that the only body insurance one CAN get is for career-ending injuries. Any injury short of that, even one that sharply compromises one's earning capacity, means no payout. For this reason the insurance route is so much less alluring than it looks at first glance.

wsb3
03-07-2017, 06:50 PM
Many years ago, wasn't there an official hardship exemption which allowed players to declare early? Like they weren't allowed to go early without it?

They did call it a hardship exemption but I can't recall anyone ever being denied.

bluenorth
03-07-2017, 07:07 PM
Except for an extremely small number of players, the "immediate family need" justification for leaving is hog wash (and I don't think I've heard it for many years - though I admit I don't keep tabs on all early entrants' reasoning for leaving early). Back when it was less acceptable for players to leave college early, it became kind of the de facto, straw man justification for leaving that fans/schools/outsiders couldn't publicly refute, but knew it wasn't really the reason. Kind of like, "my twitter account was hacked" when someone accidentally creates a s---storm with a tweet, or "I didn't know what I was putting in my body" for players testing positive for PEDs. I haven't heard this justification recently, I presume, because it has become more acceptable for players to justify leaving based purely on the economics.

My question stands: is Giles one of this extremely small number of players? A rhetorical question, unless someone has some knowledge of his circumstances, but a question nevertheless. Because at the end of the day going to the profession of playing in the NBA is all about the money.

dudog84
03-07-2017, 07:09 PM
It's my understanding, which could easily be wrong, that the only body insurance one CAN get is for career-ending injuries. Any injury short of that, even one that sharply compromises one's earning capacity, means no payout. For this reason the insurance route is so much less alluring than it looks at first glance.

Thanks, that makes sense. How do you figure out the graduated payments I posited...you can't. Well, you can, but I imagine it would end up in a lawsuit.

Tough decision for the poor kid...Do I make millions of dollars now, or do I make millions of dollars later? :)

Heaven's Guardian
03-07-2017, 07:27 PM
It's my understanding, which could easily be wrong, that the only body insurance one CAN get is for career-ending injuries. Any injury short of that, even one that sharply compromises one's earning capacity, means no payout. For this reason the insurance route is so much less alluring than it looks at first glance.

No, you can get "loss of value" payouts pretty easily if you pay for them - it's just that so few basketball players do, since you don't have to wait as long to go pro. Jaylon Smith, the former Notre Dame linebacker, bought an insurance policy that paid out based on his draft position, so he ended up with $900,000 in insurance money after falling to the second round. Leonard Fournette was insured for $20 million. I'm sure that an insurance policy for Harry would be expensive because of his previous injuries, but it's actually a very good financial bet for him if he's sure he can become an elite prospect again with another year.

Of course, that's no sure thing. He and Jayson have been avoiding lower-body physical contact all year long, especially on the glass. Even if he makes a full physical recovery, it's not clear that he'll ever play without that fear again. If he can't get past it, his draft stock will collapse and he won't have the insurance payout.

lotusland
03-07-2017, 07:50 PM
that he is really healthy. I hope he does well. I would love to see him at Duke nest year. I also hope to see him make a bunch of NBA All Star teams.
I am also not down on him. He may be a great guy and a true student athlete.

Right now though I think he looks a lot like Kwame Browne.

It is funny that the NBA dropped the one and done and can now see how guys do in college but would draft a guy that has hardly played.

SoCal

But the NBA implemented the rule because they didn't trust themselves to make good decisions. I would say that they've shown solid judgement in doubting their judgement.

dudog84
03-07-2017, 09:37 PM
No, you can get "loss of value" payouts pretty easily if you pay for them - it's just that so few basketball players do, since you don't have to wait as long to go pro. Jaylon Smith, the former Notre Dame linebacker, bought an insurance policy that paid out based on his draft position, so he ended up with $900,000 in insurance money after falling to the second round. Leonard Fournette was insured for $20 million. I'm sure that an insurance policy for Harry would be expensive because of his previous injuries, but it's actually a very good financial bet for him if he's sure he can become an elite prospect again with another year.

Of course, that's no sure thing. He and Jayson have been avoiding lower-body physical contact all year long, especially on the glass. Even if he makes a full physical recovery, it's not clear that he'll ever play without that fear again. If he can't get past it, his draft stock will collapse and he won't have the insurance payout.

So I'm wrong again. Ok, I'm going home now.

BoiseDevil
03-07-2017, 10:00 PM
Not addressed to me, but I would take a second year from existing players for a boatload of reasons. Both would be even more familiar with offense and defense, both would be determined to prove themselves beyond what happened this year, and both would have an extra year of Duke weight work and training.

All things being equal I'd agree with you. In this case I'd vote for the unknowns.

I think Carter is the only Duke lock on that list, so from what's left:

Jeter - didn't make a big Soph leap, no thanks
Bolden - my opinion is his demeanor matches his motor/work ethic (I admit I have scant evidence)
Bamba - I like his interviews, think his D is a good Duke fit and I don't think he needs/expects O to run through him

gocanes0506
03-07-2017, 10:57 PM
Giles is playing scared of getting of getting another knee, potentially career ending, injury. He has to decide which is more career devastating another injury or playing afraid of one.

Its not an easy choice.

Kedsy
03-07-2017, 11:49 PM
Jeter - didn't make a big Soph leap, no thanks

Seriously? After seeing Brian Zoubek, Miles Plumlee, Marshall Plumlee, and Amile Jefferson, all in the past six years?


Bolden - my opinion is his demeanor matches his motor/work ethic

Seriously???????


Giles is playing scared of getting of getting another knee, potentially career ending, injury.

I wish I could read minds, too.

jv001
03-08-2017, 07:19 AM
All things being equal I'd agree with you. In this case I'd vote for the unknowns.

I think Carter is the only Duke lock on that list, so from what's left:

Jeter - didn't make a big Soph leap, no thanks
Bolden - my opinion is his demeanor matches his motor/work ethic (I admit I have scant evidence)Bamba - I like his interviews, think his D is a good Duke fit and I don't think he needs/expects O to run through him

I have no idea what Marques' work ethic is. But I do see his facial expressions and it seems like he's very unhappy about something. I can guess it's about the lack of playing time. In one of the recent games, Harry was trying to talk to him about something that had happened on the court. Marques did not look to respond to Harry. Just guessing. GoDuke!

bob blue devil
03-08-2017, 08:11 AM
I have no idea what Marques' work ethic is. But I do see his facial expressions and it seems like he's very unhappy about something. I can guess it's about the lack of playing time. In one of the recent games, Harry was trying to talk to him about something that had happened on the court. Marques did not look to respond to Harry. Just guessing. GoDuke!

you can tell a lot from reading his facial expressions. also, given that marques is an aries, i suspect he's quite passionate, which would also explain his obvious frustration from lack of playing time. has anyone analyzed his handwriting?

Indoor66
03-08-2017, 08:11 AM
I have no idea what Marques' work ethic is. But I do see his facial expressions and it seems like he's very unhappy about something. I can guess it's about the lack of playing time. In one of the recent games, Harry was trying to talk to him about something that had happened on the court. Marques did not look to respond to Harry. Just guessing. GoDuke!

Maybe that is just his face.

jv001
03-08-2017, 08:13 AM
Maybe that is just his face.

Yeh, a face lift. Good idea Indoor66. :cool: GoDuke!

Jeffrey
03-08-2017, 12:44 PM
Reminder - Chris Burgess

If Chris Burgess had displayed Luol Deng's lateral quickness, in HS, then I would consider it an appropriate comparison. IMO, in HS play, Harry appeared (I mean this in a very good way) a freak of nature. Harry's combination of height, length, and amazing lateral quickness showed, IMO, much more NBA potential than Chris Burgess ever did. I think the Chris Webber comparisons are based almost solely on exceptional lateral quickness.

Indoor66
03-08-2017, 12:51 PM
If Chris Burgess had displayed Luol Deng's lateral quickness, in HS, then I would consider it an appropriate comparison. IMO, in HS play, Harry appeared (I mean this in a very good way) a freak of nature. Harry's combination of height, length, and amazing lateral quickness showed, IMO, much more NBA potential than Chris Burgess ever did. I think the Chris Webber comparisons are based almost solely on exceptional lateral quickness.

But now he has lateral quickness like Burgess. High school is over.

Jeffrey
03-08-2017, 01:01 PM
But now he has lateral quickness like Burgess. High school is over.

If he truly is only at Burgess level now, then he will probably come back next year to recover! IMO, his NBA Combine ATA will strongly determine where he goes in the draft. IMO, if he displays his past lateral quickness, he is a lottery pick.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-09-2017, 06:04 AM
If he truly is only at Burgess level now, then he will probably come back next year to recover! IMO, his NBA Combine ATA will strongly determine where he goes in the draft. IMO, if he displays his past lateral quickness, he is a lottery pick.

That is a pretty danged big "if."

YmoBeThere
03-09-2017, 06:17 AM
has anyone analyzed his handwriting?

No, but I hear he wasn't happy with the fortune cookie he got a few months ago.

WVDUKEFAN
03-09-2017, 07:38 AM
There is a difference in playing not to get hurt and absolutely not knowing what is going on around you. It's possible to play off someone or give them space, and still be in the play so to speak. I made it a point to watch him last night (as opposed to following the basketball to see who's shooting). He was truly lost on defense. I believe it was either the second or third foul he committed where he was completely on the other side of his man and fouled him from the back side. He was completely out of position, and then committed the foul from behind. I personally wouldn't draft him on purely on potential. People keep referring to what he was two years ago. That was against high school competition and mainly kids where he had a distinct size and physical advantage. Unless he's 1000% better than what he's showing right now, he'll get eaten up in the NBA.

UNCfan
03-09-2017, 08:07 AM
Obviously, Giles has lost major development time in HS due to injuries. IMHO, Duke does not currently run an offense that will feature his position. Is it possible the offense would adjust to include Giles more if he was 100%, possibly. With three guys like Kennard, Allen, and Tatum, shots will be limited. With no true PG, Giles doesn't have anyone creating opportunities for him to score and Duke is 12th in the ACC in assists. Not a great formula for him to succeed and the game isn't clicking inside his head. In high school, his athletic ability could mask mental mistakes, not at this level. He will go to the combine and probably test off the charts with his jumping and quickness and that will led to him being a lottery pick.

You need players like Jefferson to compliment your big three. Guys that play solid defense and do not need shots. I think this was a wasted year for Giles. If it was the NBA, he would have spent a lot of time in the D-league.

MChambers
03-09-2017, 09:06 AM
People keep referring to what he was two years ago. That was against high school competition and mainly kids where he had a distinct size and physical advantage. Unless he's 1000% better than what he's showing right now, he'll get eaten up in the NBA.
It was also against international competition, including pros. He was on the USA FIBA U19 team, two months after he turned 17, and he was the best player on the court, by a large margin.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2691817-stay-or-go-former-top-nba-prospect-harry-giles-faces-impossible-question

I'm not saying he'll ever be that good, but let's not base our analysis on things that aren't correct.

dukebluesincebirth
03-09-2017, 09:25 AM
Obviously, Giles has lost major development time in HS due to injuries. IMHO, Duke does not currently run an offense that will feature his position. Is it possible the offense would adjust to include Giles more if he was 100%, possibly. With three guys like Kennard, Allen, and Tatum, shots will be limited. With no true PG, Giles doesn't have anyone creating opportunities for him to score and Duke is 12th in the ACC in assists. Not a great formula for him to succeed and the game isn't clicking inside his head. In high school, his athletic ability could mask mental mistakes, not at this level. He will go to the combine and probably test off the charts with his jumping and quickness and that will led to him being a lottery pick.

You need players like Jefferson to compliment your big three. Guys that play solid defense and do not need shots. I think this was a wasted year for Giles. If it was the NBA, he would have spent a lot of time in the D-league.

These are good points, especially playing in an offense that doesn't present him a ton of opportunities. And I believe you are correct that if he had been close to 100% this season, we would've adjusted to get him more involved. Next year's team would probably fit him a little better IF we get Duval (a terrific ball distributor) and Carter as a compliment in the post. The pick and roll with Grayson yesterday was pretty, just few and far between. I also thought he got 2 phantom fouls right off the bat that immediately took him out of the game.

Troublemaker
03-09-2017, 09:28 AM
You need players like Jefferson to compliment your big three. Guys that play solid defense and do not need shots. I think this was a wasted year for Giles. If it was the NBA, he would have spent a lot of time in the D-league.

Please note that Duke does get the ball inside to Jefferson, and he makes beautiful post moves that Kennedy Meeks can only dream of to juke defenders and score.

It was not a "wasted year" for Giles. First of all, it was not even a year, lol. He first became cleared to play for Duke in mid-December. How was he supposed to spend the first 3-4 months of his life after being cleared? And keep in mind he was coming off his second major injury, and he had only played 1 season of basketball in the past 3 years. I can't think of anything better for him than to spend 3-4 months practicing and and playing (some) against ACC competition, an intermediate level between the high school that he used to dominate and the NBA where he's aiming to go. All under the watchful eye and care of Duke medicine and a Hall-of-Fame coach.

Unfortunately for Duke, we will only have Harry for the "baby steps" portion of his recovery. Eventually he will get comfortable with his body and playing basketball again, eventually he will lose the knee brace, eventually he will regain his lateral quickness. But all of that's probably not happening at Duke. So we will have to endure the jabs from opposing fans about how we're somehow not doing a good job with him. But Harry knows the truth. And, eventually he will be a good, maybe great, player in the NBA, and he will always be associated with Duke and grateful to Duke for caring for him during his most vulnerable days. He will return to Duke often, he will be part of the Duke Brotherhood, and he will represent Duke well in the NBA. I'm okay with that tradeoff. More than okay, really. The ideal would be that he started to dominate fresh off of being cleared to play, but that was never realistic.

UNCfan
03-09-2017, 09:46 AM
It was not a "wasted year" for Giles. First of all, it was not even a year, lol. He first became cleared to play for Duke in mid-December. How was he supposed to spend the first 3-4 months of his life after being cleared? And keep in mind he was coming off his second major injury, and he had only played 1 season of basketball in the past 3 years. I can't think of anything better for him than to spend 3-4 months practicing and and playing (some) against ACC competition, an intermediate level between the high school that he used to dominate and the NBA where he's aiming to go. All under the watchful eye and care of Duke medicine and a Hall-of-Fame coach.

I understand his limitations after serious knee injuries. However, he is playing 11.7 minutes a game and taking 3.23 shots per game. How many of those are offensive rebound put backs? Point is, I think he is healthier and better than that. Maybe he will learn a lot this season and maybe he will truly value his experience at Duke, now and in the future. But, his confidence must be quite low after the way this season has gone so far. It can change with one good game, but so far it hasn't and that may have hurt him more than it has helped him.

Steven43
03-09-2017, 09:58 AM
Please note that Duke does get the ball inside to Jefferson, and he makes beautiful post moves that Kennedy Meeks can only dream of to juke defenders and score.

It was not a "wasted year" for Giles. First of all, it was not even a year, lol. He first became cleared to play for Duke in mid-December. How was he supposed to spend the first 3-4 months of his life after being cleared? And keep in mind he was coming off his second major injury, and he had only played 1 season of basketball in the past 3 years. I can't think of anything better for him than to spend 3-4 months practicing and and playing (some) against ACC competition, an intermediate level between the high school that he used to dominate and the NBA where he's aiming to go. All under the watchful eye and care of Duke medicine and a Hall-of-Fame coach.

Unfortunately for Duke, we will only have Harry for the "baby steps" portion of his recovery. Eventually he will get comfortable with his body and playing basketball again, eventually he will lose the knee brace, eventually he will regain his lateral quickness. But all of that's probably not happening at Duke. So we will have to endure the jabs from opposing fans about how we're somehow not doing a good job with him. But Harry knows the truth. And, eventually he will be a good, maybe great, player in the NBA, and he will always be associated with Duke and grateful to Duke for caring for him during his most vulnerable days. He will return to Duke often, he will be part of the Duke Brotherhood, and he will represent Duke well in the NBA. I'm okay with that tradeoff. More than okay, really. The ideal would be that he started to dominate fresh off of being cleared to play, but that was never realistic.
Wow, what a great post. I think you explained something that many basketball fans seem not to understand or think about. Namely, that the thoughtful, careful, highly-professional and thorough physical and mental nurturing of injured or recently-injured players--like Harry, like Jabari, like Kyrie, just to name a few--is one of Duke's greatest selling points as an institution of higher learning for student-athletes. I really don't believe one can do any better in choosing a school.

And the thing is, just as you mentioned in your post, the results of Duke's incredible efforts to successfully nurture and heal athletes, like the aforementioned, are often not immediately obvious. It can take a year or two or three for players--who were injured prior to attending or during their time at Duke--to show the positive results of the incredible combined efforts of everyone associated with Duke Basketball, Duke Medicine, and Duke University overall.

A lot of fans, even some Blue Devils fans, don't really appreciate or understand how great this university truly is in a comprehensive sense. I guarantee you that Kyrie and Jabari do, and Harry will one day, if he doesn't already.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 10:00 AM
I understand his limitations after serious knee injuries. However, he is playing 11.7 minutes a game and taking 3.23 shots per game. How many of those are offensive rebound put backs? Point is, I think he is healthier and better than that. Maybe he will learn a lot this season and maybe he will truly value his experience at Duke, now and in the future. But, his confidence must be quite low after the way this season has gone so far. It can change with one good game, but so far it hasn't and that may have hurt him more than it has helped him.

I side with TM, who sounds like he may have changed his expectations of Giles in the last month.

Giles has bad knees. That isn't speculation, that is fact. 2 major knee surgeries before your 19th birthday coupled with a minor knee scope that cannot instill confidence in the player.

It took Jabari a full season post-ACL tear to look like himself. And Harry Giles has had two of these surgeries.

I don't know if Giles will ever be the same again (and if I'm an NBA GM, I'm not drafting him until the end of the 1st round). But I do know that Giles's struggles make complete and utter sense and I had predicted these before the season started.

I expect Giles's sophomore NBA season to provide clarity on who Giles really is as a player. Sadly, that means he will be nowhere near the player he can be at Duke.

Troublemaker
03-09-2017, 10:15 AM
I understand his limitations after serious knee injuries. However, he is playing 11.7 minutes a game and taking 3.23 shots per game. How many of those are offensive rebound put backs? Point is, I think he is healthier and better than that. Maybe he will learn a lot this season and maybe he will truly value his experience at Duke, now and in the future. But, his confidence must be quite low after the way this season has gone so far. It can change with one good game, but so far it hasn't and that may have hurt him more than it has helped him.

Oh really? And how did you come to that conclusion, doctor?

First of all, the entire premise you're operating under -- that Giles needs more postups for his experience at Duke to have mattered -- is completely wrong and sort of a joke when you consider how the NBA has moved away from posting up. It's a pick-and-roll league, and Giles has gotten experience defending and running pick-and-rolls. A lot of that experience hasn't gone well for him, mind you, but that's all part of the process. Before you can get good at something, you have to be bad at it first. He's received valuable reps at Duke.

Second, Giles has the lowest plus-minus of any rotation player; Duke has basically played opponents to a draw when he's on the court. That's not good enough. In an ideal world, I'd love to see him play more. But I get it. Duke wants to win, and to win, you have to put up more points than the opponent when the players are on the court. With Harry, his defensive struggles have made it hard to do that.


Maybe he will learn a lot this season and maybe he will truly value his experience at Duke, now and in the future. But, his confidence must be quite low after the way this season has gone so far. It can change with one good game, but so far it hasn't and that may have hurt him more than it has helped him.

We don't have to speculate on this. He's been quoted and has written an essay about how he needed this time at Duke.

DukeFanSince1990
03-09-2017, 10:24 AM
I side with TM, who sounds like he may have changed his expectations of Giles in the last month.

Giles has bad knees. That isn't speculation, that is fact. 2 major knee surgeries before your 19th birthday coupled with a minor knee scope that cannot instill confidence in the player.

It took Jabari a full season post-ACL tear to look like himself. And Harry Giles has had two of these surgeries.

I don't know if Giles will ever be the same again (and if I'm an NBA GM, I'm not drafting him until the end of the 1st round). But I do know that Giles's struggles make complete and utter sense and I had predicted these before the season started.

I expect Giles's sophomore NBA season to provide clarity on who Giles really is as a player. Sadly, that means he will be nowhere near the player he can be at Duke.

Yep, which means one really good NBA team could be striking absolute gold with his draft, emphasis on could be. What if Cleveland drafts him and he turns into that guy again........wow.

Troublemaker
03-09-2017, 10:40 AM
I side with TM, who sounds like he may have changed his expectations of Giles in the last month.

Giles has bad knees. That isn't speculation, that is fact. 2 major knee surgeries before your 19th birthday coupled with a minor knee scope that cannot instill confidence in the player.

Yeah, I thought Harry would eventually start. (Which is the main reason why you own some beer that I bought for you. Enjoy!). Turns out I'm not a doctor, either. I've learned that it's just too soon to have expected him to start on a good team that wants to contend for championships. He needs time to recover lateral quickness that is required to play pick-and-roll defense.

That scope that he underwent in early October was also a killer. Would've been nice to see what he could've done with 2.5 more months of practice under his belt.

CDu
03-09-2017, 10:44 AM
Yeah, I thought Harry would eventually start. (Which is the main reason why you own some beer that I bought for you. Enjoy!). Turns out I'm not a doctor, either. I've learned that it's just too soon to have expected him to start on a good team that wants to contend for championships. He needs time to recover lateral quickness that is required to play pick-and-roll defense.

Yeah, he still seems to be lead-footed out there. Which isn't shocking considering he missed SO much time with injuries to both knees that affects lateral quickness. His springs are there and you can occasionally see evidence of the silkiness around the basket. But he just doesn't move with the fluidity he needs right now. Hopefully that comes back to him. It has to be frustrating to him to not do the things he used to be able to do.

BandAlum83
03-09-2017, 10:50 AM
No, but I hear he wasn't happy with the fortune cookie he got a few months ago.

Enterprising reporters gathered the tea leaves from his tea that day, or so I'm told. That haven't yet released the results of their analysis.

I think it's held up in some lab over in Chapel Hill.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 10:50 AM
Yeah, I thought Harry would eventually start. (Which is the main reason why you own some beer that I bought for you. Enjoy!). Turns out I'm not a doctor, either. I've learned that it's just too soon to have expected him to start on a good team that wants to contend for championships. He needs time to recover lateral quickness that is required to play pick-and-roll defense.

That scope that he underwent in early October was also a killer. Would've been nice to see what he could've done with 2.5 more months of practice under his belt.

I think there are two issues with Giles. One, as you mentioned, is lateral quickness. The other is grasping Duke's defensive schemes. The scope, IMO, affects the latter moreso than the former. Giles - without the scope - would likely be as slow as he is right now. Those 2 major surgeries have made him so tentative (and rightly so. From what I've heard, tearing your ACL and/or MCL is one of the most painful recovery processes in sports medicine) on the court.

But the scope took Giles out of defensive run-throughs and I think that is why is looks so lost on D. I thought the scope wasn't a big deal, but I was clearly wrong.

CDu
03-09-2017, 10:53 AM
I think there are two issues with Giles. One, as you mentioned, is lateral quickness. The other is grasping Duke's defensive schemes. The scope, IMO, affects the latter moreso than the former. Giles - without the scope - would likely be as slow as he is right now. Those 2 major surgeries have made him so tentative (and rightly so. From what I've heard, tearing your ACL and/or MCL is one of the most painful recovery processes in sports medicine) on the court.

But the scope took Giles out of defensive run-throughs and I think that is why is looks so lost on D. I thought the scope wasn't a big deal, but I was clearly wrong.

Yeah, the scope wasn't a big deal physically. But the time missed was a big deal. Both in terms of getting his timing back as a player in general AND getting an understanding of the defensive scheme.

It's tough enough to come back from an ACL tear. It's tough enough to come back from TWO ACL tears. It is tough enough to make the transition from high school to the pros. It is tough enough to regain your form after so much missed time. To do all of those things together AND to miss the first several months of practice time is just brutal.

kAzE
03-09-2017, 11:08 AM
Yeah, the scope wasn't a big deal physically. But the time missed was a big deal. Both in terms of getting his timing back as a player in general AND getting an understanding of the defensive scheme.

It's tough enough to come back from an ACL tear. It's tough enough to come back from TWO ACL tears. It is tough enough to make the transition from high school to the pros. It is tough enough to regain your form after so much missed time. To do all of those things together AND to miss the first several months of practice time is just brutal.

He definitely gets a pass for most of his struggles this season, but just to play devil's advocate a little bit: He's been practicing and playing for almost 3 months now. Shouldn't he be a little better with defensive positioning at this point? I'm fully aware that knee injuries, especially the kind that he's had to endure, are not short term fixes, and that he may not be full right physically until next season, but some of the mental mistakes that he still makes are very frustrating, because everyone can see the potential.

And now jumping back to the other side: He's not very strong, in his upper or lower body. This is understandable, considering he literally could not do any lower body weight training while recovering from surgery. I think this really affects his ability to defend in the paint. He's easily pushed off his spot down low, and he can't get enough leverage to jump up and block shots. If he stays healthy, he's almost certainly going to have a huge increase in productivity wherever he plays next season, because he'll most likely do a ton of work on his body this offseason.

Jeffrey
03-09-2017, 11:33 AM
That is a pretty danged big "if."

Which one? IMO, Harry's Combine ATA will basically determine his spot in the 2017 draft. If Harry is not 100% and the ATA shows that, then buying insurance and returning to Duke with the goal of getting back to 100%, IMO, makes sense. If Harry is 100% and the ATA shows that, then Harry is a 2017 lottery pick.

Jeffrey
03-09-2017, 11:36 AM
Yeah, the scope wasn't a big deal physically.

However, it may have been a big deal in eventually getting Harry back to 100%. It clearly shows Duke placed Harry's long-term health ahead of him playing ball at Duke.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 11:55 AM
However, it may have been a big deal in eventually getting Harry back to 100%. It clearly shows Duke placed Harry's long-term health ahead of him playing ball at Duke.

Harry was NEVER going to get back to 100% this year, scope or no scope. ACL tears do not heal within a season unless your name is Adrian Peterson.

killerleft
03-09-2017, 12:26 PM
Giles is playing scared of getting of getting another knee, potentially career ending, injury. He has to decide which is more career devastating another injury or playing afraid of one.

Its not an easy choice.

Or maybe he's just at the point in his recovery that matches the reality we see?

killerleft
03-09-2017, 12:33 PM
I have no idea what Marques' work ethic is. But I do see his facial expressions and it seems like he's very unhappy about something. I can guess it's about the lack of playing time. In one of the recent games, Harry was trying to talk to him about something that had happened on the court. Marques did not look to respond to Harry. Just guessing. GoDuke!

He's shown that same face all year. Poor guy was unhappy even before he was cleared to play.:) Maybe it was the same thing Harry has said 50 times before, and Harry wasn't really looking for a response.

Jeffrey
03-09-2017, 12:34 PM
Harry was NEVER going to get back to 100% this year, scope or no scope. ACL tears do not heal within a season unless your name is Adrian Peterson.

What does that have to do with my statement, which you put in bold?


However, it may have been a big deal in eventually getting Harry back to 100%.

jv001
03-09-2017, 12:39 PM
Harry has had to deal with the knee surgeries, missed playing time in high school, missed significant practice time at Duke and to top it off, he's asked to play against college players in the toughest conference in America. He seems to really be thinking too much trying to make the right plays and be in the right place in the few minutes he does get. He will be on the road to the old Harry when he just begins to react and not think so much. Some on this board expect him to play like Amile who is in his 6th year at Duke. It just doesn't happen that way. I'm hoping that we'll see it happen sooner rather than later. GoDuke!

kAzE
03-09-2017, 12:41 PM
Harry has had to deal with the knee surgeries, missed playing time in high school, missed significant practice time at Duke and to top it off, he's asked to play against college players in the toughest conference in America. He seems to really be thinking too much trying to make the right plays and be in the right place in the few minutes he does get. He will be on the road to the old Harry when he just begins to react and not think so much. Some on this board expect him to play like Amile who is in his 6th year at Duke. It just doesn't happen that way. I'm hoping that we'll see it happen sooner rather than later. GoDuke!

Unfortunately, we're out of time. It's win or go home the rest of the way. Even if he does somehow make a miraculous improvement in the next 3 weeks, there's no way you could trust him with major minutes in an elimination game, at least not until he puts together 2-3 games in a row of solid play.

jv001
03-09-2017, 01:46 PM
Unfortunately, we're out of time. It's win or go home the rest of the way. Even if he does somehow make a miraculous improvement in the next 3 weeks, there's no way you could trust him with major minutes in an elimination game, at least not until he puts together 2-3 games in a row of solid play.

I'm afraid you are correct kAze. That train has left the station. What we need more is for Grayson to get close to 100% quickly. We need the Grayson we saw in the first cheat game. Now that is possible. GoDuke!

AtlDuke72
03-09-2017, 01:47 PM
Unfortunately, we're out of time. It's win or go home the rest of the way. Even if he does somehow make a miraculous improvement in the next 3 weeks, there's no way you could trust him with major minutes in an elimination game, at least not until he puts together 2-3 games in a row of solid play.

He had 3 fouls in 5 minutes against Clemson. Major minutes could be a problem ! I find it hard to believe that an NBA team would take him in the first round this year.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 01:49 PM
He had 3 fouls in 5 minutes against Clemson. Major minutes could be a problem ! I find it hard to believe that an NBA team would take him in the first round this year.

Potential, potential, potential, potential.

Giles is oozing with it. Also turns out Giles could easily be the biggest bust in the draft.

I can't think of a bigger high risk/high reward prospect.

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 02:42 PM
Potential, potential, potential, potential.

Giles is oozing with it. Also turns out Giles could easily be the biggest bust in the draft.

I can't think of a bigger high risk/high reward prospect.

I keep hearing potential but have failed to see any reliable indication of that potential beyond anecdotal references to his junior year in high school.

WillJ
03-09-2017, 02:48 PM
I keep hearing potential but have failed to see any reliable indication of that potential beyond anecdotal references to his junior year in high school.

I agree with you. Based solely on this year, the past Duke player that 2017 Harry most resembles is Casey Sanders. I sure hope he gets well after this season and gets a chance to find out what kind of player he really can be.

RPS
03-09-2017, 02:59 PM
I keep hearing potential but have failed to see any reliable indication of that potential beyond anecdotal references to his junior year in high school.

NBA scouts beg to differ.

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 03:08 PM
NBA scouts beg to differ.

Maybe some of them remember Greg Oden.

SoCalDukeFan
03-09-2017, 03:27 PM
First of all I was not down on Giles as a person or player. I was down on him as a NBA player next year.

I thought this was the best half from Harry this year. Hope he continues to improve. Improved play from him would be a huge plus in the Big Dance.

SoCal

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 03:37 PM
First of all I was not down on Giles as a person or player. I was down on him as a NBA player next year.

I thought this was the best half from Harry this year. Hope he continues to improve. Improved play from him would be a huge plus in the Big Dance.

SoCal

I agree with your post. Best I have seen of Harry.

RPS
03-09-2017, 04:30 PM
Maybe some of them remember Greg Oden.

Oden's issues were injuries, not performance. Anthony Bennett is a much better example. That said, drafting in any sport is far more of a crapshoot (http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/) than most appreciate. It's easy to see why scouts (and K) salivated over Giles. It remains to be seen if he will come anywhere near meeting his potential. More to your point, however, the potential has to be enormous or K wouldn't have brought him in as a highly likely one-and-done player.

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 04:35 PM
Oden's issues were injuries, not performance. Anthony Bennett is a much better example. That said, drafting in any sport is far more of a crapshoot (http://grantland.com/features/nba-draft-crapshoot-repick-1995/) than most appreciate. It's easy to see why scouts (and K) salivated over Giles. It remains to be seen if he will come anywhere near meeting his potential. More to your point, however, the potential has to be enormous or K wouldn't have brought him in as a highly likely one-and-done player.

I would say that Giles also deals with injury issues.

DukieInBrasil
03-09-2017, 04:46 PM
Harry played a pretty solid game today against a very formidable front line.
4pts, 3rebs, 2asts, 2stls 1 blk. Probably his best game all year. He did have a 2x double once, but that was in OOC play, and not a very good team.
He missed some defensive assignments, but overall he did pretty well on D. I think going zone really helped mask some of his defensive shortcomings, but that's what coaches are paid to do, come up with ways to make the guys on floor win the game.

RPS
03-09-2017, 05:16 PM
I would say that Giles also deals with injury issues.

Very significant injury issues. But Oden's injuries came after he was drafted.

Kedsy
03-09-2017, 05:29 PM
But Oden's injuries came after he was drafted.

Not true. Oden missed the first month of his freshman (only) season, due to an injury.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 05:31 PM
Not true. Oden missed the first month of his freshman (only) season, due to an injury.

That was due to a wrist injury, not a knee injury. What did Oden in was his knees. The injuries that sidelined Oden during his freshman year and ruined his career are completely unrelated.

Kedsy
03-09-2017, 05:45 PM
The injuries that sidelined Oden during his freshman year and ruined his career are completely unrelated.

Maybe. Some people are just made of glass. As a 76ers fan it's what worries me about Embiid.

kAzE
03-09-2017, 05:51 PM
Maybe. Some people are just made of glass. As a 76ers fan it's what worries me about Embiid.

I would be worried too. The "Process" doesn't look like he's capable of staying healthy for even half of a full NBA season right now.

But on the other hand, I don't believe Harry is "made of glass." Some guys, like Oden, just don't have the body to play the game of basketball night in and night out. I don't think Harry is like that. He has just been unlucky. However, he needs to get MUCH stronger, especially in his legs, if he wants to avoid future injuries.

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 05:56 PM
My comments go to my view of the risk in drafting him.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2017, 05:59 PM
I would be worried too. The "Process" doesn't look like he's capable of staying healthy for even half of a full NBA season right now.

But on the other hand, I don't believe Harry is "made of glass." Some guys, like Oden, just don't have the body to play the game of basketball night in and night out. I don't think Harry is like that. He has just been unlucky. However, he needs to get MUCH stronger, especially in his legs, if he wants to avoid future injuries.

I would agree if he had a torn ACL and, say, a facial fracture or compound fracture in this arm that takes him out of the season (God forbid. I'm not advocating this at all. Just sayin'). But two knee injuries before you're 19 screams "bad knees". It just does. And it's not the same knee BUT TWO DIFFERENT KNEES! Unlucky? Yes. But bad knees? Yes.

kAzE
03-09-2017, 06:06 PM
I would agree if he had a torn ACL and, say, a facial fracture or compound fracture in this arm that takes him out of the season (God forbid. I'm not advocating this at all. Just sayin'). But two knee injuries before you're 19 screams "bad knees". It just does. And it's not the same knee BUT TWO DIFFERENT KNEES! Unlucky? Yes. But bad knees? Yes.

I just don't know if that's a conclusion you can make on a 19 year old. Okay, so he's been very, extremely, soul-crushingly unlucky. I just think it's hard to say someone has bad knees when they aren't even fully developed. Brandon Roy had bad knees. Those things were ticking time bombs. I really think Harry has a chance to avoid any more knee injuries if he can just get his lower body strength where it needs to be.

Yes, I admit 2 ACLs in different knees looks really bad, but injuries to the opposite knee are actually quite common because people often overcompensate when one leg is rehabbing. I'm no doctor, but he's such a fluid athlete (as opposed to Greg Oden, whose body just looked doomed from the start), that I have to give him the benefit of the doubt, as least until he matures physically.

Dukehky
03-09-2017, 06:09 PM
On a side note, Harry gets his chance to show those punks in Chapel Hill who haven't accomplished anything with their lives who is overrated. I'm pumped we get them again if for no other reason than Harry gets his shot. He played well today and is going to get plenty of minutes tomorrow.

Kedsy
03-09-2017, 06:10 PM
I just don't know if that's a conclusion you can make on a 19 year old. Okay, so he's been very, extremely, soul-crushingly unlucky. I just think it's hard to say someone has bad knees when they aren't even fully developed. Brandon Roy had bad knees. Those things were ticking time bombs. I really think Harry has a chance to avoid any more knee injuries if he can just get his lower body strength where it needs to be.

Yes, I admit 2 ACLs in different knees looks really bad, but injuries to the opposite knee are actually quite common because people often overcompensate when one leg is rehabbing. I'm no doctor, but he's such a fluid athlete (as opposed to Greg Oden's, whose body just looked doomed from the start), that I have to give him the benefit of the doubt, as least until he matures physically.

Hopefully, you're right. But that's why I think his NBA pre-draft physicals will go a long way toward determining his draft position.

Steven43
03-09-2017, 06:16 PM
Potential, potential, potential, potential.

Giles is oozing with it. Also turns out Giles could easily be the biggest bust in the draft.

I can't think of a bigger high risk/high reward prospect.

Perhaps I haven't paid careful attention or I'm just not great at player assessment, but I have not yet seen in Harry the potential that people speak of almost reverentially. I have to say, though, that I did not watch even one second of his high school play. Perhaps that would have have positively colored my view of his 'potential'. I don't know.

Indoor66
03-09-2017, 06:16 PM
I just don't know if that's a conclusion you can make on a 19 year old. Okay, so he's been very, extremely, soul-crushingly unlucky. I just think it's hard to say someone has bad knees when they aren't even fully developed. Brandon Roy had bad knees. Those things were ticking time bombs. I really think Harry has a chance to avoid any more knee injuries if he can just get his lower body strength where it needs to be.

Yes, I admit 2 ACLs in different knees looks really bad, but injuries to the opposite knee are actually quite common because people often overcompensate when one leg is rehabbing. I'm no doctor, but he's such a fluid athlete (as opposed to Greg Oden, whose body just looked doomed from the start), that I have to give him the benefit of the doubt, as least until he matures physically.

Also, it ain't our money. 😎

Jeffrey
03-10-2017, 10:18 AM
I would agree if he had a torn ACL and, say, a facial fracture or compound fracture in this arm that takes him out of the season (God forbid. I'm not advocating this at all. Just sayin'). But two knee injuries before you're 19 screams "bad knees". It just does. And it's not the same knee BUT TWO DIFFERENT KNEES! Unlucky? Yes. But bad knees? Yes.

I'm not sure there's medical research confirming your theory. IIRC, the odds of a young athlete having an opposite knee ACL are substantially higher after their first ACL.

CDu
03-10-2017, 10:24 AM
I'm not sure there's medical research confirming your theory. IIRC, the odds of a young athlete having an opposite knee ACL are substantially higher after their first ACL.

I don't think what you said here and what the Dutchman said above are incompatible statements. It is more likely for a young athlete to have an opposite-knee ACL after tearing the first ACL in part because that athlete may be predisposed to having bad knees. And further, after having two ACL tears, he most definitely now has questionable knees.

Jeffrey
03-10-2017, 10:39 AM
I don't think what you said here and what the Dutchman said above are incompatible statements. It is more likely for a young athlete to have an opposite-knee ACL after tearing the first ACL in part because that athlete may be predisposed to having bad knees. And further, after having two ACL tears, he most definitely now has questionable knees.

You're right, there's no need to debate whether Harry was born with "bad knees", since they certainly are now. My point was his second ACL tear had a much higher probability and it does not mean Harry is "made of glass". I think Harry is an awesome draft selection after the 10th pick.

BigZ
03-10-2017, 10:41 AM
Has anyone ever seen Giles and Harrison Barnes at the sametime?

Troublemaker
03-10-2017, 10:52 AM
Has anyone ever seen Giles and Harrison Barnes at the sametime?

Huh? They don't look alike to me.

CDu
03-10-2017, 10:56 AM
Huh? They don't look alike to me.

There is a joke here somewhere that would probably get someone an infraction if they made it.

BandAlum83
03-10-2017, 11:06 AM
There is a joke here somewhere that would probably get someone an infraction if they made it.

Something is flying waaaay over my head.

flyingdutchdevil
03-10-2017, 11:18 AM
There is a joke here somewhere that would probably get someone an infraction if they made it.

Lol. They totally look alike! Didn't realize that until the post above.

Listening, I don't like Ted Cruz, but I happily admit Grayson Allen looks just like him.

Troublemaker
03-10-2017, 11:38 AM
Lol. They totally look alike! Didn't realize that until the post above.

Listening, I don't like Ted Cruz, but I happily admit Grayson Allen looks just like him.

Really? I see the Grayson / Cruz resemblance. I also think Kevin Knox sort of resembles Kennedy Meeks (although don't tell Knox that since he apparently hates the comparison).

But I don't see the Giles / Barnes comparison, but apparently some do.

Harry has a very friendly face, and Barnes has a very punchable face. And I thought so before Barnes became a Heel.

flyingdutchdevil
03-10-2017, 11:44 AM
Really? I see the Grayson / Cruz resemblance. I also think Kevin Knox sort of resembles Kennedy Meeks (although don't tell Knox that since he apparently hates the comparison).

But I don't see the Giles / Barnes comparison, but apparently some do.

Harry has a very friendly face, and Barnes has a very punchable face. And I thought so before Barnes became a Heel.

I see them all. And I laugh. Cuz it's funny. Giles has a more slender face and it is friendly, but I think Barnes has quite a nice face.

Also, can you explain the term, "punchable face"? It's an awesome phrase, but I don't really understand what constitutes a face being punchable vs non-punchable.

Jeffrey
03-10-2017, 11:47 AM
I think Barnes has quite a nice face.

Set up like a bowling pin.

Spanarkel
03-10-2017, 12:05 PM
Lol. They totally look alike! Didn't realize that until the post above.

Listening, I don't like Ted Cruz, but I happily admit Grayson Allen looks just like him.


Does anyone think Steve Vasturia resembles a younger FBI Director James Comey?

Troublemaker
03-10-2017, 12:10 PM
I see them all. And I laugh. Cuz it's funny. Giles has a more slender face and it is friendly, but I think Barnes has quite a nice face.

Also, can you explain the term, "punchable face"? It's an awesome phrase, but I don't really understand what constitutes a face being punchable vs non-punchable.

Yeah, we're not experiencing these faces the same way if that has to be explained. And I actually am afraid to delve much further into the subject because I don't know how out of the norm I am at this point. But I will give you a short explanation, and then this is my final post on the matter.

Some people just naturally look like jerks. A fairly common sports example is Jay Cutler. A lot of people say they just look at his face, and he seems like a jerk (whether it's actually true or not) and they want to punch him. I've always felt the same way about Barnes, even when he was a heavy favorite to go to Duke. Barnes looks like a jerk (whether he actually is or not). With Giles, I'm shocked at the comparison to Barnes because Giles' face naturally exudes friendliness to me (whether he actually is or not). Huge difference.

kAzE
03-10-2017, 12:11 PM
There's actually an IC thread about this: http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina/forums/1410-basketball/15425603-harry-giles-looks-just-like

Although it quickly devolved in to more "Duke can't develop big men" discussion. Typical.

NYBri
03-10-2017, 12:29 PM
There's actually an IC thread about this: http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina/forums/1410-basketball/15425603-harry-giles-looks-just-like

Although it quickly devolved in to more "Duke can't develop big men" discussion. Typical.

Well, this thread about Giles devolved into a "looks like" discussion. Im sensing a "Ted Cruz minutes" thread coming on. :cool:

billy
03-10-2017, 12:31 PM
I'm not sure there's medical research confirming your theory. IIRC, the odds of a young athlete having an opposite knee ACL are substantially higher after their first ACL.

According to a VERY large multi-center analysis, the risk of tearing the opposite knee's ACL is about 9% after an ACL surgery in males (22% for females). The risk of re-tearing the same ACL is about 3% (not stratified for age in this study, but an additional study by the same group noted the risk of retear in 14 year-olds at 6.6% vs. 0.6% in 40 year olds using their own tissue rather than a donor's tissue).

Other studies show that 66-72% of athletes are able to return to the same or greater level of play (athleticism/competition/etc) following an ACL surgery.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-10-2017, 12:34 PM
Jim Boeheim and Jim Larranega always get me confused when I take a quick glance and see a team in orange.

Neither one looks like Prince Harry.

budwom
03-10-2017, 12:46 PM
You're right, there's no need to debate whether Harry was born with "bad knees", since they certainly are now. My point was his second ACL tear had a much higher probability and it does not mean Harry is "made of glass". I think Harry is an awesome draft selection after the 10th pick.

I agree, the payoff for picking Harry with a mid first round pick could well be yoooge.

devildeac
03-10-2017, 01:23 PM
I see them all. And I laugh. Cuz it's funny. Giles has a more slender face and it is friendly, but I think Barnes has quite a nice face.

Also, can you explain the term, "punchable face"? It's an awesome phrase, but I don't really understand what constitutes a face being punchable vs non-punchable.

Any face in c*rolina blue=punchable

:o

devildeac
03-10-2017, 01:24 PM
Does anyone think Steve Vasturia resembles a younger FBI Director James Comey?

I'm sorry, I asked my doctor and vasturia is not right for me.

:rolleyes:

BandAlum83
03-10-2017, 01:35 PM
According to a VERY large multi-center analysis, the risk of tearing the opposite knee's ACL is about 9% after an ACL surgery in males (22% for females). The risk of re-tearing the same ACL is about 3% (not stratified for age in this study, but an additional study by the same group noted the risk of retear in 14 year-olds at 6.6% vs. 0.6% in 40 year olds using their own tissue rather than a donor's tissue).

Other studies show that 66-72% of athletes are able to return to the same or greater level of play (athleticism/competition/etc) following an ACL surgery.

Don't know how or if this fits in to the conversation, but Chipper Jones tore one ACL just before he was going to be the Rookie Left Fielder for the Atlanta Braves.

He tore the other ACL the year before he would probably retire. Interesting the injuries occurred nearly 20 years apart.

Both injuries set back his plans by a year.

Jeffrey
03-10-2017, 01:37 PM
According to a VERY large multi-center analysis, the risk of tearing the opposite knee's ACL is about 9% after an ACL surgery in males (22% for females). The risk of re-tearing the same ACL is about 3% (not stratified for age in this study, but an additional study by the same group noted the risk of retear in 14 year-olds at 6.6% vs. 0.6% in 40 year olds using their own tissue rather than a donor's tissue).

Thank you, that sounds like the analysis and stats I had seen.


Other studies show that 66-72% of athletes are able to return to the same or greater level of play (athleticism/competition/etc) following an ACL surgery.

Are these success rates about the same for Harry's dual ACL scenario? If so, IMO, he should still be a top 10 pick!

devildeac
03-10-2017, 01:38 PM
According to a VERY large multi-center analysis, the risk of tearing the opposite knee's ACL is about 9% after an ACL surgery in males (22% for females). The risk of re-tearing the same ACL is about 3% (not stratified for age in this study, but an additional study by the same group noted the risk of retear in 14 year-olds at 6.6% vs. 0.6% in 40 year olds using their own tissue rather than a donor's tissue).

Other studies show that 66-72% of athletes are able to return to the same or greater level of play (athleticism/competition/etc) following an ACL surgery.

We can always count on billy to keep us well-informed. Thanks!

tbyers11
03-10-2017, 01:41 PM
Don't know how or if this fits in to the conversation, but Chipper Jones tore one ACL just before he was going to be the Rookie Shortstop for the Atlanta Braves.

He tore the other ACL the year before he would probably retire. Interesting the injuries occurred nearly 20 years apart.

Both injuries set back his plans by a year.

Good point. However, as Chipper was one of my favorite baseball players ever I wanted to point out he was drafted as a shortstop and that the ACL injury was part of reason that he became a 3rd baseman. His temporary late career shift to left field was brought about by the Braves signing Vinny Castilla. Carry on :D

BandAlum83
03-10-2017, 01:56 PM
Good point. However, as Chipper was one of my favorite baseball players ever I wanted to point out he was drafted as a shortstop and that the ACL injury was part of reason that he became a 3rd baseman. His temporary late career shift to left field was brought about by the Braves signing Vinny Castilla. Carry on :D

As memory serves, there was no room for him on the infield in 1994 (Jeff Blauser was firmly entrenched at SS), so the Braves planned to start him in left field in order to get his bat into the lineup.

When he finally did play his first major league game in 1995, Braves 3rd baseman, Terry Pendelton, had moved to Miami and Chipper started his career at 3rd.

Carry on ;)

SoCalDukeFan
03-10-2017, 10:54 PM
Harry is playing much better now.

SoCal

COYS
03-10-2017, 11:00 PM
Good point. However, as Chipper was one of my favorite baseball players ever I wanted to point out he was drafted as a shortstop and that the ACL injury was part of reason that he became a 3rd baseman. His temporary late career shift to left field was brought about by the Braves signing Vinny Castilla. Carry on :D

Chipper's adventures in left field were . . . Um . . . Exciting . . . Just not always in a good way. The routes he took on flyballs looked made him look like someone who hadn't played the position in seven or more years (shocking, I know). I loved having the Big Cat on the Braves at third. But I was also glad when Chipper moved back to the hot corner. He wasn't exactly a Gold Glove defender at third, but he was infinitely better there than he was in left.

Okay, NOW carry on :)

BandAlum83
03-11-2017, 03:00 AM
Chipper's adventures in left field were . . . Um . . . Exciting . . . Just not always in a good way. The routes he took on flyballs looked made him look like someone who hadn't played the position in seven or more years (shocking, I know). I loved having the Big Cat on the Braves at third. But I was also glad when Chipper moved back to the hot corner. He wasn't exactly a Gold Glove defender at third, but he was infinitely better there than he was in left.

Okay, NOW carry on :)

The Big Cat was the nickname for Braves first Baseman Andres Galarraga. The third baseman Chipper replaced was TP, Terry Pendleton.

Sorry, carry on?

davekay1971
03-11-2017, 08:43 AM
Thank you, that sounds like the analysis and stats I had seen.



Are these success rates about the same for Harry's dual ACL scenario? If so, IMO, he should still be a top 10 pick!

Thomas Davis says he thinks Harry will be fine.

60sDukie
03-11-2017, 08:46 AM
At least posters didn't descend into a discussion of barbeque

davekay1971
03-11-2017, 08:47 AM
At least posters didn't descend into a discussion of barbeque

Harry prefers Lexington BBQ to any of that dreck from Kentucky, Memphis, or Texas, however.

budwom
03-11-2017, 08:48 AM
Unfortunately, we're out of time. It's win or go home the rest of the way. Even if he does somehow make a miraculous improvement in the next 3 weeks, there's no way you could trust him with major minutes in an elimination game, at least not until he puts together 2-3 games in a row of solid play.

I believe this is demonstrably incorrect.

MCFinARL
03-11-2017, 09:12 AM
I believe this is demonstrably incorrect.

Yes. QED.

FadedTackyShirt
03-11-2017, 09:18 AM
A short bench is mitigated in the Dance because of extended commercial time outs, a day between games, and a week of recovery/practice. A six man rotation would be less than ideal, especially with Grayson and Amile dinged up.

Giles doesn't need to be a star, but a solid 10 mins extends the rotation to a more optimal seven man rotation.

Bob Green
03-11-2017, 09:40 AM
Giles doesn't need to be a star, but a solid 10 mins extends the rotation to a more optimal seven man rotation.

I agree with what you are saying except I desire to see Giles play 15 minutes per game. He has looked solid the past two games averaging 5 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes of action. Moreover, he has made an impact on the defensive end of the court.

bob blue devil
03-11-2017, 09:48 AM
in terms of giles's value to duke the rest of the season, perhaps the most important aspect is amile foul insurance. it's been encouraging to see harry play his best when we've needed him the most. it may translate to unpredictable minute numbers, but the idea of amile getting into foul trouble is less terrifying with harry waiting to grab those minutes.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-11-2017, 09:53 AM
in terms of giles's value to duke the rest of the season, perhaps the most important aspect is amile foul insurance. it's been encouraging to see harry play his best when we've needed him the most. it may translate to unpredictable minute numbers, but the idea of amile getting into foul trouble is less terrifying with harry waiting to grab those minutes.

This, a thousand times. We have lots of other interchangeable parts on this team, but no one can slip into Amile's role except Harry. If he can do that well, it really opens things up for us when Jefferson's on the bench for whatever reason.

NM Duke Fan
03-11-2017, 09:54 AM
I agree with what you are saying except I desire to see Giles play 15 minutes per game. He has looked solid the past two games averaging 5 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes of action. Moreover, he has made an impact on the defensive end of the court.

With what he brought the last two games, I would hope 15 is somewhere around the lower boundary of his minutes, a few more than that will be fine as well. This little bit of extra rest for Amile may enable him to play with even more of his recent refound intensity. I really like the way this rotation has now shaped up, and Bolden has some things to offer if needed for spot minutes as well.

FadedTackyShirt
03-11-2017, 10:00 AM
I agree with what you are saying except I desire to see Giles play 15 minutes per game. He has looked solid the past two games averaging 5 points and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes of action. Moreover, he has made an impact on the defensive end of the court.

Should have modified it to "a minimum of 10 mins". 10 MPG should be a floor as long as Giles is productive. Still mo' Amile mo' better, so keeping Amile fresh and out of foul trouble is a priority.

No dis on Bolden, but glad that Giles has separated himself from Bolden. Gives Giles more confidence and defines roles better.

oldnavy
03-11-2017, 10:01 AM
The most impressive thing Harry did last night in my opinion was dive on the floor for the loose ball in the corner... that told me a lot about his heart and desire.

For him to do that in crunch time without hesitation tells me he is all in, and not just riding it out for the NBA draft. Not that I had thought he was doing that, but I was not expecting him to give up the body like he did in this game...

Go Harry!!

GO DUKE!!

wsb3
03-11-2017, 12:32 PM
The most impressive thing Harry did last night in my opinion was dive on the floor for the loose ball in the corner... that told me a lot about his heart and desire.


My favorite Harry moment last night was the continuous little fist pump as he walked toward bench (I think) & the expression on his face as Duke was taking control at the end & he was a huge part of it..

I am with Bob...15 minutes a game would be great..

ncexnyc
03-11-2017, 12:46 PM
The most impressive thing Harry did last night in my opinion was dive on the floor for the loose ball in the corner... that told me a lot about his heart and desire.

For him to do that in crunch time without hesitation tells me he is all in, and not just riding it out for the NBA draft. Not that I had thought he was doing that, but I was not expecting him to give up the body like he did in this game...

Go Harry!!

GO DUKE!!

I'm not sure what happened during last night's game to change how Harry played. Honestly, he wasn't looking so great in the first half and even for the early portion of the second half. In fact there was one play that had me screaming at the TV when he had a chance to dive on the floor for a loose ball and just stood there.

Maybe he had some of what Luke's been taking in the second half of games, but whatever the reason, Harry was awesome in that one short span giving us a highlight reel block as well as a fantastic slam at the other end.

Hopefully he'll continue this stellar play, as the team needs a solid alternative to Amile.

crdaul
03-11-2017, 12:49 PM
On a side note, Harry gets his chance to show those punks in Chapel Hill who haven't accomplished anything with their lives who is overrated. I'm pumped we get them again if for no other reason than Harry gets his shot. He played well today and is going to get plenty of minutes tomorrow.

I second the notion that the UNCheaters "over-rated" chants for Harry may have given him some extra juice last night...Gotta love it, if so...Now on to the Irish. Go Duke!

kAzE
03-11-2017, 01:02 PM
We are definitely playing at a new level when Harry can come in and be a difference maker, like he has in these past 2 games.

However, I have to point out that this UNC game was a Tale of 2 Harrys. In the first half, he was the guy he's been most of this year, jogging back in transition, allowing an easy entry pass to Bradley for a layup, helping too slow and committing a soft foul on Berry to allow the bucket and 1, not even putting his hand up on a Bradley 15 jumper. It was like he completely forgot what he did in the previous game.

Then, in the 2nd half, when Amile was saddled with 4 fouls, Harry became super man in this game-clinching sequence: https://youtu.be/fHMjrwW6zLg?t=1327

Luke hits the 3 to put us up 5, Harry gets a huge block on Jackson, then immediately sprints faster than a speeding bullet 94 feet the other way, leaping tall buildings in a single bound to convert the huge alley-oop, and then coming up with a ridiculous steal on the next possession. He also was able to grab several contested rebounds that he would not have been able to come up with earlier this season. That's big time. Those were championship level plays. He's gotta replicate that level of effort all the time. If he's doing that off the bench, we might have the best bench in the country with basically 2 guys.

dukelifer
03-11-2017, 01:56 PM
We are definitely playing at a new level when Harry can come in and be a difference maker, like he has in these past 2 games.

However, I have to point out that this UNC game was a Tale of 2 Harrys. In the first half, he was the guy he's been most of this year, jogging back in transition, allowing an easy entry pass to Bradley for a layup, helping too slow and committing a soft foul on Berry to allow the bucket and 1, not even putting his hand up on a Bradley 15 jumper. It was like he completely forgot what he did in the previous game.

Then, in the 2nd half, when Amile was saddled with 4 fouls, Harry became super man in this game-clinching sequence: https://youtu.be/fHMjrwW6zLg?t=1327

Luke hits the 3 to put us up 5, Harry gets a huge block on Jackson, then immediately sprints faster than a speeding bullet 94 feet the other way, leaping tall buildings in a single bound to convert the huge alley-oop, and then coming up with a ridiculous steal on the next possession. He also was able to grab several contested rebounds that he would not have been able to come up with earlier this season. That's big time. Those were championship level plays. He's gotta replicate that level of effort all the time. If he's doing that off the bench, we might have the best bench in the country with basically 2 guys.

The thing with Harry is that he is being very careful with the knees. It has completely affected his game. Another injury and he will never see a big paycheck. For two minutes, yesterday, he played without worry. He played with enthusiasm. That is what it will take for him to contribute at a high level- but it come with a risk but also high reward. In one game - he now has a highlight reel for the pros. The block, the rebounds and running the floor for a dunk. That is what everyone expected from Harry every game. Maybe he now ready to put himself out there or maybe he will revert back to careful Harry. Only time will tell.

53n206
03-11-2017, 02:11 PM
Yes, Harry must be careful with his knees. It would be nice to see him play 30 minutes but I doubt if that's advisable. He must look to the future.