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kAzE
03-06-2017, 02:32 PM
I know what you're thinking: "kAzE, this is way too early to start talking about the draft!! :mad:"

But the fact is, draft talk has already permeated several threads, and we do need a thread to consolidate those thoughts.

I'm particularly intrigued by DraftExpress's (IMO the most accurate public source on the internet for NBA draft player evaluations) new rankings, updated just today: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

Some notable things I saw upon first review:

- Jayson is now up to #4, moving ahead of Dennis Smith. I believe he can only continue to rise, although all 3 of the guys ahead of him right now are totally deserving of their rankings.

- Justin Jackson moved WAY up, from the back end of the 1st round, into the late lottery. WOW. Did not expect that one. I hate to admit it, but he has really improved this year. Who knew? Adding a jump shot to his game made him a potential lottery pick.

- Luke Kennard shot up from the last pick of the first round to the early 20s . . . it's starting to feel like he may be gone after this year :(

- Harry Giles dropped way down (#19 to now #28), and might be danger of falling out of the first round.

- Grayson's stock continues to drop, he's at #44 now.

- Semi Ojeleye is gaining some traction as an NBA prospect. He's currently #42 on DE's rankings.

- Marques Bolden is #51

- Frank Jackson is #66

Edit: It's probably worth noting that these rankings are a snapshot in time, as of today. They can, and WILL change significantly depending on what happens in the NCAA postseason, and events leading up to the draft.

gam7
03-06-2017, 02:45 PM
I know what you're thinking: "kAzE, this is way too early to start talking about the draft!! :mad:"

But the fact is, draft talk has already permeated several threads, and we do need a thread to consolidate those thoughts.

I'm particularly intrigued by DraftExpress's (IMO the most accurate public source on the internet for NBA draft player evaluations) new rankings, updated just today: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/Top-100-Prospects/

Some notable things I saw upon first review:

- Jayson is now up to #4, moving ahead of Dennis Smith. I believe he can only continue to rise, although all 3 of the guys ahead of him right now are totally deserving of their rankings.

- Justin Jackson moved WAY up, from the back end of the 1st round, into the late lottery. WOW. Did not expect that one. I hate to admit it, but he has really improved this year. Who knew? Adding a jump shot to his game made him a potential lottery pick.

- Luke Kennard shot up from the last pick of the first round to the early 20s . . . it's starting to feel like he may be gone after this year :(

- Harry Giles dropped way down (#19 to now #28), and might be danger of falling out of the first round.

- Grayson's stock continues to drop, he's at #44 now.

- Semi Ojeleye is gaining some traction as an NBA prospect. He's currently #42 on DE's rankings.

- Marques Bolden is #51

- Frank Jackson is #66

And, just fyi - their rankings are not exactly the same as their mock draft positions. In the 2017 mock, draftexpress has Luke at #20, Harry at #25 and Grayson at #39. Bolden and Frank are not projected to be coming out this year.

yancem
03-06-2017, 02:53 PM
I wonder if Giles has dropped enough to make it worth sticking around another year. I know that there is the risk of re-injury but if he drops to the second round he risks not getting a guaranteed contract at all and having to play in the D league for a year or two. There he would still risk re-injury plus he would not be on TV every week building name recognition. He would also be playing in more games with increased travel which I would think only make re-injury more of a possibility. If he comes back, he can still get insurance, he will play in fewer but higher profile games and have access to the better coaching and training. I would still think that a team would take a flier on him late in the first round based on potential but he certainly doesn't look like a lock to be a lottery pick right now.

Allen is also in difficult situation. You know he had to expect to have had the kind of season that Kennard has had and hoped to be at least a late teen early 20's pick. He is scheduled to graduate this spring so does he declare now and try to prove himself in the D league like Curry and Cook or does he come back and hope to be healthy all year and maybe get another ring.

I would think that Kennard will look at Allen's season this year and declare.

Bolden is probably in a position where he has to come back, right? Transferring would only delay the draft another year and not getting drafted as a freshman is not likely a wise strategy.

I'm a little shocked that Jackson is so low. His play the past week or so has been fantastic. I wonder if the low number is based more on an expectation he won't declare than how scouts really view him?

kAzE
03-06-2017, 02:58 PM
I'm a little shocked that Jackson is so low. His play the past week or so has been fantastic. I wonder if the low number is based more on an expectation he won't declare than how scouts really view him?

I'll speculate that it's because he hasn't shown that he has the ability to run an offense as a true point guard, coupled with the fact that he's small for an NBA 2 guard. But I would fully expect him to vault into the first round if he comes back and plays at or above the level he's been playing at recently.

luburch
03-06-2017, 03:01 PM
As much as I want Luke to come back, it's hard to campaign for him to after the season Grayson had. No, Luke would not have to deal with the firestorm Grayson has gone through, but it's hard to imagine his stock being much higher. Same with Grayson last year. Luke's been healthy all year and that is never a guarantee. Again, just look at Grayson.

Honestly, I think it's easier to make a case for Giles to return than Luke.

Billy Dat
03-06-2017, 05:03 PM
I'll speculate that it's because he hasn't shown that he has the ability to run an offense as a true point guard, coupled with the fact that he's small for an NBA 2 guard. But I would fully expect him to vault into the first round if he comes back and plays at or above the level he's been playing at recently.

I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October.

kAzE
03-06-2017, 05:26 PM
I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October.

My post was actually about Frank Jackson, but I do agree on all of your analysis of Grayson (although I think he's closer to 6'3" than 6'5"). I believe he will boost his draft stock both in the NCAA tournament, as well as in personal workouts with teams prior to the draft. He really is a spectacular athlete, and it will help him on draft day.

Billy Dat
03-06-2017, 05:37 PM
My post was actually about Frank Jackson, but I do agree on all of your analysis of Grayson (although I think he's closer to 6'3" than 6'5"). I believe he will boost his draft stock both in the NCAA tournament, as well as in personal workouts with teams prior to the draft. He really is a spectacular athlete, and it will help him on draft day.

Duh, my bad. Frank is certainly undersized for an NBA 2. It seems like the NBA is really starting to look at PGs as two types...lead guards and scoring guards with the former being the Chris Paul floor general and the later being Kyrie/Westbrook. I think Frank is likely that scoring guard variety...he could use some work on his handles and consistency on that 3.

As for everyone else, I am pretty pessimistic about returnees. In general, these kids all want to play pro ball. Grayson's return last year was so against the grain. At some point a few weeks ago, I actually figured on us losing Amile and Matt to graduation and then Grayson, Luke, Harry, Jayson AND Marques.

The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?

flyingdutchdevil
03-06-2017, 05:55 PM
Duh, my bad. Frank is certainly undersized for an NBA 2. It seems like the NBA is really starting to look at PGs as two types...lead guards and scoring guards with the former being the Chris Paul floor general and the later being Kyrie/Westbrook. I think Frank is likely that scoring guard variety...he could use some work on his handles and consistency on that 3.

As for everyone else, I am pretty pessimistic about returnees. In general, these kids all want to play pro ball. Grayson's return last year was so against the grain. At some point a few weeks ago, I actually figured on us losing Amile and Matt to graduation and then Grayson, Luke, Harry, Jayson AND Marques.

The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?

Yeah. That's my biggest question. I've crossed off Tatum (duh), Giles (injury risk), Luke (don't wanna pull a Grayson and destroy stock value), and Grayson (no one in his shoes wants to endure another year of hell).

Bolden is such a question mark. I could easily see him pull a Daniel Orton or come back. Neither option would surprise me. And Jeter? I think it depends on what Bolden does.

sagegrouse
03-06-2017, 06:03 PM
I think the proliferation of small ball means that Grayson isn't undersized for a 2. He's 6'5" and a sample of the best 2 guards in the league puts him right in the correct range. JJ is only 6'4", as is CJ McCollum, Brad Beal is 6'5", D.Wade is 6'4"..and that's just naming some of the really good ones. Sure, guys like Klay and Jimmy Butler are 6'7" but I think 6'5" is fine for a 2.

Sadly, I think Grayson needs to leave. He's damaged goods from a brand perspective in college and I would not wish on him the booing and scrutiny that he's faced this year. He's been banged up all year but the NBA guys aren't stupid, they'll recognize him as an undervalued asset and he'll be on an opening night roster this October. I disagree with the first part of the highlighted sentence but agree with the second half. I think Grayson's "brand... in college" is a meaningless concept, and the over-reaction to his wrongdoing will balance off on next year's reputation; moreover, if he makes an NBA roster, he will sell a lot to jerseys. I doubt that Grayson, who is near graduation, sees much benefit to coming back, giving the unpleasant experience of this season.

wsb3
03-06-2017, 06:28 PM
Trying to crunch the numbers here...(math makes my head hurt) Let's say just for the heck of it...that only Jayson left early..(I know..but humor me) Matt, Amile, Sean graduate.. Robinson back to redshirt.. That still leaves us with an open scholarship for Knox???

Also Justin Jackson really did make a leap...I was kind of surprised he was not moving up more earlier.

wk2109
03-06-2017, 06:33 PM
The Marques/Jeter status is a real mystery. What will happen with those two dudes?

I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but I've always had the sense that Marques came into this season fully expecting to be a one-and-done. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15612170/five-star-center-marques-bolden-picks-duke-blue-devils-kentucky-wildcats: "My goal is not only to be drafted in the NBA but to play in the NBA," Bolden said. "I feel Duke will best help me reach my goal.") Sitting out the beginning of the season with Harry and Jayson (i.e., two sure-fire one-and-dones) and hearing the media group the three of them together probably added to that expectation.

I imagine that for guys who have a deep one-and-done expectation starting in high school, the idea of coming back for sophomore year is extremely unpalatable, no matter how much they love Duke/college. For most, if not all, of these high-level basketball players, the ultimate dream is BY FAR to play in the NBA, and they don't want to wait a second longer than necessary to make the leap.

Marques really is a mystery. It's possible that he ends up like the Harrison twins, who had absolutely no choice but to return for their sophomore years. I could see him entering his name in the draft, getting real feedback telling him that he should return to school, having a heart-to-heart with Coach K that motivates him to tear it up as a sophomore, breaking somewhat out of his introverted shell and playing great next year for Duke.

Or, that unpalatability of waiting another year to realize his NBA dream might drive him to stay in the draft and gamble on himself. Who knows, maybe a team will draft him on potential and he'll quickly develop into a productive NBA big man. If he does decide to leave this year, I hope his decision is based on wisdom and not impatience.

As for Chase, I assume your question doesn't have to do with whether he'll declare for the draft (I'm not going to use the "t" word). I think Chase is capable of playing at the high-major level, unlike someone like, perhaps, Alex Murphy or Olek Czyz. I hope he'll stick it out. I get the impression that he truly loves Duke, which I honestly don't feel is true about every player who's come through the program.

dukelifer
03-06-2017, 08:04 PM
I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but I've always had the sense that Marques came into this season fully expecting to be a one-and-done. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15612170/five-star-center-marques-bolden-picks-duke-blue-devils-kentucky-wildcats: "My goal is not only to be drafted in the NBA but to play in the NBA," Bolden said. "I feel Duke will best help me reach my goal.") Sitting out the beginning of the season with Harry and Jayson (i.e., two sure-fire one-and-dones) and hearing the media group the three of them together probably added to that expectation.

I imagine that for guys who have a deep one-and-done expectation starting in high school, the idea of coming back for sophomore year is extremely unpalatable, no matter how much they love Duke/college. For most, if not all, of these high-level basketball players, the ultimate dream is BY FAR to play in the NBA, and they don't want to wait a second longer than necessary to make the leap.

Marques really is a mystery. It's possible that he ends up like the Harrison twins, who had absolutely no choice but to return for their sophomore years. I could see him entering his name in the draft, getting real feedback telling him that he should return to school, having a heart-to-heart with Coach K that motivates him to tear it up as a sophomore, breaking somewhat out of his introverted shell and playing great next year for Duke.

Or, that unpalatability of waiting another year to realize his NBA dream might drive him to stay in the draft and gamble on himself. Who knows, maybe a team will draft him on potential and he'll quickly develop into a productive NBA big man. If he does decide to leave this year, I hope his decision is based on wisdom and not impatience.

As for Chase, I assume your question doesn't have to do with whether he'll declare for the draft (I'm not going to use the "t" word). I think Chase is capable of playing at the high-major level, unlike someone like, perhaps, Alex Murphy or Olek Czyz. I hope he'll stick it out. I get the impression that he truly loves Duke, which I honestly don't feel is true about every player who's come through the program.

Bolden needs to work on his game. Not all freshman are ready to make the jump. Right now he is a second round player at best. He can work on his game in the D league if he does not want to be in school, but he needs to work on his game.

dukelifer
03-06-2017, 08:08 PM
Yeah. That's my biggest question. I've crossed off Tatum (duh), Giles (injury risk), Luke (don't wanna pull a Grayson and destroy stock value), and Grayson (no one in his shoes wants to endure another year of hell).

Bolden is such a question mark. I could easily see him pull a Daniel Orton or come back. Neither option would surprise me. And Jeter? I think it depends on what Bolden does.

Luke will be an interesting case. He will have to work on his D as JJ did- but he can score in lots of ways. Luke will definitely test the waters.

Billy Dat
03-06-2017, 08:46 PM
I disagree with the first part of the highlighted sentence but agree with the second half. I think Grayson's "brand... in college" is a meaningless concept, and the over-reaction to his wrongdoing will balance off on next year's reputation; moreover, if he makes an NBA roster, he will sell a lot to jerseys. I doubt that Grayson, who is near graduation, sees much benefit to coming back, giving the unpleasant experience of this season.

I meant that I don't think he can change the perception that people in college have of him, no matter what he does. I don't think it will be as big a deal in the NBA. In this way, he's a bit like JJ, although he is not the college player JJ was. JJ had to deal with "you aint all that" talk until he made himself (with Stan Van's help) into the NBA player he is today. As long as Grayson can make a team, I think that will happen for him, too. Just as JJ toned down his cocky behavior, Grayson will have to avoid major dirty play while still retaining his fierce edge - not an easy balance.

Billy Dat
03-07-2017, 09:17 AM
Great Duke specific draft discussion in the second half of this pod.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-devils-den-podcast/id1147667552?mt=2&i=1000382297660

The first half, which reviews the season and looks ahead to the ACC and NCAA tournaments is also a good listen.

jimsumner
03-07-2017, 11:56 AM
Trying to crunch the numbers here...(math makes my head hurt) Let's say just for the heck of it...that only Jayson left early..(I know..but humor me) Matt, Amile, Sean graduate.. Robinson back to redshirt.. That still leaves us with an open scholarship for Knox???

Also Justin Jackson really did make a leap...I was kind of surprised he was not moving up more earlier.

I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

That's the max.

Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.

BandAlum83
03-07-2017, 12:00 PM
I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

That's the max.

Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is an 'actionable' offer? Are there other types of offers?

jimsumner
03-07-2017, 12:14 PM
Pardon my ignorance, but what is an 'actionable' offer? Are there other types of offers?

Some offers are conditional. i.e. "we have one scholarship open and two offers out. First one to commit gets that scholarship and the offer will be withdrawn to the remaining target."

And schools do tell prospects that they are option number two for a spot and please wait until option number one decides.

Some wait. Some don't.

I'm reasonably certain that all of Duval, Knox and Muhammad have been told that a scholarship to Duke will be available should they decide to attend Duke.

Meaning Duke expects to lose at least two players in addition to Tatum.

bob blue devil
03-07-2017, 12:15 PM
Obviously, the staff expects more attrition than just Tatum.

argh! so many other ways to say that without including the possibility of bad news. anybody else says that and i'm not currently in the fetal position. but here i am. i need a diaper change.

jimsumner
03-07-2017, 12:30 PM
argh! so many other ways to say that without including the possibility of bad news. anybody else says that and i'm not currently in the fetal position. but here i am. i need a diaper change.

Bolden and Muhammad Bamba may well be mutually exclusive. In other words, if Bolden comes back, Bamba likely goes elsewhere.

But Duke is strong with Knox and very strong with Duval.

Signing both of those requires either someone other than Tatum leaving for the NBA or a transfer.

The former is quite likely. I just don't see any way Harry Giles comes back next year and Allen is more likely to leave than to stay.

Kennard could go either way and Bolden and Jackson should be back.

So, I don't anticipate a scholarship crunch.

kAzE
03-07-2017, 12:42 PM
Regardless of what happens with Harry and Marques, I think it will be tough for next year's team if Luke and Grayson both leave. We are almost certainly going to have at least 2 NBA caliber big men on the roster next year, so I don't see the point of stressing over it.

However, there will be a leadership void that can't really be filled by any of the returning players. If both of those guys leave, and Jayson leaves, as expected, the most established returning player will probably be Frank Jackson.

I'm a believer that upperclassmen leadership is a big deal, so losing Matt and Amile is really going to hurt. Those guys are mentors both on and off the court, and it will definitely affect the development of the younger guys if Grayson and Luke are both gone.

I think there's a 60-70% chance Luke leaves, but I (selfishly) hope he comes back. Next year's team is Luke's team if he wants it to be. (Assuming Grayson is gone, and I believe he is 100% gone.)

wsb3
03-07-2017, 12:43 PM
I did this on another thread but I'll repeat here.

First, Robinson doesn't count. He's not on scholarship. And he's already redshirted once. Why would he redshirt again? And redshirts still count towards the limit.

Duke currently has 13 recruited players on scholarship.

That's the max.

Subtract Jones, Jefferson, Obi and Tatum and add fall signees Carter, Trent and O'Connell.

That leaves one available scholarship. Duke currently has actionable offers out to Duval, Knox and Muhammad.

Obviously, the staff expects more
attrition than just Tatum.

Thank you. Forgive me on Robinson. I meant back to walk on not redshirt.

dukelifer
03-07-2017, 01:58 PM
Regardless of what happens with Harry and Marques, I think it will be tough for next year's team if Luke and Grayson both leave. We are almost certainly going to have at least 2 NBA caliber big men on the roster next year, so I don't see the point of stressing over it.

However, there will be a leadership void that can't really be filled by any of the returning players. If both of those guys leave, and Jayson leaves, as expected, the most established returning player will probably be Frank Jackson.

I'm a believer that upperclassmen leadership is a big deal, so losing Matt and Amile is really going to hurt. Those guys are mentors both on and off the court, and it will definitely affect the development of the younger guys if Grayson and Luke are both gone.

I think there's a 60-70% chance Luke leaves, but I (selfishly) hope he comes back. Next year's team is Luke's team if he wants it to be. (Assuming Grayson is gone, and I believe he is 100% gone.)

Hard to win a championship without upperclass players who have contributed in prior year. Almost never goes well. Unlike UK who has this model but plays is an easier conference- Duke is getting tested every night. This large exodus of experienced (and unexperienced) players could set Duke back- particularly if Duke fills its roster with other possible one and dones.

WHOneedsSOX
03-07-2017, 04:13 PM
You guys all think that strongly that Allen leaves? I just don't know if I see it.

I could easily see him come back and rebuild his image and hopefully have a Buddy Hield like season where he skyrockets back into the lottery.

Tatum is obviously gone for sure. Giles will be gone. Some late lottery team will promise him they'll draft him based on his potential. I think Kennard is gone. I think Bolden will also leave which is probably a mistake but I can never fault a guy for leaving early. Jackson will be interesting. If he has a great ACC/NCAA tournament, he could leave too.

Could be a really inexperienced Duke team next season with all the regular rotation guys leaving. Also could be very loaded if Jackson, Bolden, and possibly Allen stay.

fuse
03-07-2017, 04:57 PM
Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think :rolleyes:

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

devildeac
03-07-2017, 05:10 PM
Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think :rolleyes:

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

I'll have a pint of what he's drinking. ;)

BandAlum83
03-07-2017, 05:19 PM
You guys all think that strongly that Allen leaves? I just don't know if I see it.

I could easily see him come back and rebuild his image and hopefully have a Buddy Hield like season where he skyrockets back into the lottery.

Tatum is obviously gone for sure. Giles will be gone. Some late lottery team will promise him they'll draft him based on his potential. I think Kennard is gone. I think Bolden will also leave which is probably a mistake but I can never fault a guy for leaving early. Jackson will be interesting. If he has a great ACC/NCAA tournament, he could leave too.

Could be a really inexperienced Duke team next season with all the regular rotation guys leaving. Also could be very loaded if Jackson, Bolden, and possibly Allen stay.

Are there rules about what the NBA teams can and cannot say before a student officially declares for the draft?

gwlaw99
03-07-2017, 05:50 PM
Fun if fruitless to speculate...things I think I think :rolleyes:

Tatum is almost certain to leave.
Grayson, certain to leave. As much as I would love him to come
back, he is on pace to graduate in 3 years and I would not come back given the media circus this year.

Giles should stay based on limited minutes and not showing much in those minutes. Based on hype and potential, I expect he goes.

Jackson and Bolden should return.

Kennard is where it gets interesting. Not sure it is in his best interest to return pending tournament performance. Would love to see him come back to win a back to back national championship :-)

All bets are off when we win the NC as to who decides to come back.

I don't see Grayson leaving. If he wanted to go early he could have when his stock was high. Now it is at an all time low. I don't see any reason for him to go.

kAzE
03-07-2017, 06:02 PM
Obviously, we all want Harry and Marques to do what is best for them and their careers. I trust that they will be able to make that decision for themselves, with the help of their families, and accurate draft assessments from people who know the NBA draft.

I'm prefacing my post with that because, of all the scenarios that I can see for next year's roster, we end up with a very capable front court pretty much no matter what happens.

Scenario 1 (Worst case): Harry and Marques both go pro, Bamba goes to UK, Knox goes to UNC. We end up with Wendell Carter, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier, and Antonio Vrankovic. So, in the absolute worst case/doomsday scenario, we still have one of the best front courts in the ACC. Javin and Chase are NOT bums. I still have high hopes for Chase, and I think Javin could potentially be the next Amile Jefferson.

Scenario 2: Harry and Marques both go pro, we get 1 of Knox or Bamba. Wendell at the 5 and Knox at the 4. Or Bamba and Wendell. Chase and Javin off the bench. This is the 2nd worst case scenario, and we still have one of the best front courts in the country.

Scenario 3: One of Harry and Marques stays. We have at least 2 NBA bigs, regardless of where Bamba and Knox go. I believe a 2nd year from either Harry or Marques would be VERY productive.

Scenario 4: Both Harry and Marques stay. This becomes an embarrassment of big man riches.

For me, the success of next year depends MUCH more on the draft decisions of Grayson and Luke.

ChillinDuke
03-07-2017, 07:12 PM
Harry - I see no reasonable way that Harry comes back. He shouldn't. He should take the money and run. If he came back, the negatives would far outweigh the possibilities. His spectrum of outcomes would be something like: (1) continue to look mediocre [stock falls further], (2) suffer another injury, the most minor of which would still hurt his label as "injury prone" [stock falls further], (3) display nominal improvement [stock falls further], or (4) completely blow up [stock rises]. And all four of these options would come with the added negative of a year of lost salary. His situation just doesn't make sense to come back. I'm rooting for the guy as much as any of us around here. I'd love to see him succeed at Duke next year and be amazing. But I just can't reasonably argue that coming back next year makes sense for him - given the risk/reward profile.

Grayson - I think he should go. I don't think his case is quite as clear as Harry's though. If we're to believe mocks, Grayson's stock has already fallen a lot. So Grayson actually has a chance to play himself back into the first round (or even lottery) with a well-rounded senior year in which he regains his consistency, leadership, and (to the extent it's salvageable) reputation. Combine that with an expected weaker draft next year, and it makes Grayson's situation a little less clear than Harry's. There's no way of knowing how painful this season has been for him - I expect it's been quite difficult, but there's no way of knowing. Maybe the kid is just made of stone (although my gut tells me he's more emotional than that). All things considered, I think he should go. He has potential, scouts know that, NBA teams know that. I think most people know that this year was tough for him. I don't think he'll be picked in the first round at this point, but I do think there are downside risks to him returning. So, all things considered, he should probably leave.

Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.

Frank - I think he should stay. I think he's trended up toward the end of this year, but I think he's another guy that could legitimately go mid-lottery next year if he stays. He has a huge ceiling and the freshman-sophomore jump looms large for him.

Marques - Gotta stay. You can't teach his size and wingspan. I think he's surefire NBA material no matter when he leaves. Someone will draft that body. So why leave now when he can significantly benefit another year (or more).

So all things considered, I'd expect Amile and Matt, Sean, Jayson, Harry, and Grayson to leave for the NBA after this season. I think Luke, Frank, and Marques return. Odds, anyone?

- Chillin

WHOneedsSOX
03-08-2017, 01:37 PM
Are there rules about what the NBA teams can and cannot say before a student officially declares for the draft?

I don't think so as long as his name is in the draft. Happens every year in the evaluation process. Teams every year promise a player that if he falls to them that they will draft him.

flyingdutchdevil
03-08-2017, 01:39 PM
Obviously, we all want Harry and Marques to do what is best for them and their careers. I trust that they will be able to make that decision for themselves, with the help of their families, and accurate draft assessments from people who know the NBA draft.

I'm prefacing my post with that because, of all the scenarios that I can see for next year's roster, we end up with a very capable front court pretty much no matter what happens.

Scenario 1 (Worst case): Harry and Marques both go pro, Bamba goes to UK, Knox goes to UNC. We end up with Wendell Carter, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier, and Antonio Vrankovic. So, in the absolute worst case/doomsday scenario, we still have one of the best front courts in the ACC. Javin and Chase are NOT bums. I still have high hopes for Chase, and I think Javin could potentially be the next Amile Jefferson.

Scenario 2: Harry and Marques both go pro, we get 1 of Knox or Bamba. Wendell at the 5 and Knox at the 4. Or Bamba and Wendell. Chase and Javin off the bench. This is the 2nd worst case scenario, and we still have one of the best front courts in the country.

Scenario 3: One of Harry and Marques stays. We have at least 2 NBA bigs, regardless of where Bamba and Knox go. I believe a 2nd year from either Harry or Marques would be VERY productive.

Scenario 4: Both Harry and Marques stay. This becomes an embarrassment of big man riches.

For me, the success of next year depends MUCH more on the draft decisions of Grayson and Luke.

Like this year! But it turns out you can't teach Coach K how to use a long bench.

flyingdutchdevil
03-08-2017, 01:42 PM
Harry - I see no reasonable way that Harry comes back. He shouldn't. He should take the money and run. If he came back, the negatives would far outweigh the possibilities. His spectrum of outcomes would be something like: (1) continue to look mediocre [stock falls further], (2) suffer another injury, the most minor of which would still hurt his label as "injury prone" [stock falls further], (3) display nominal improvement [stock falls further], or (4) completely blow up [stock rises]. And all four of these options would come with the added negative of a year of lost salary. His situation just doesn't make sense to come back. I'm rooting for the guy as much as any of us around here. I'd love to see him succeed at Duke next year and be amazing. But I just can't reasonably argue that coming back next year makes sense for him - given the risk/reward profile.

Grayson - I think he should go. I don't think his case is quite as clear as Harry's though. If we're to believe mocks, Grayson's stock has already fallen a lot. So Grayson actually has a chance to play himself back into the first round (or even lottery) with a well-rounded senior year in which he regains his consistency, leadership, and (to the extent it's salvageable) reputation. Combine that with an expected weaker draft next year, and it makes Grayson's situation a little less clear than Harry's. There's no way of knowing how painful this season has been for him - I expect it's been quite difficult, but there's no way of knowing. Maybe the kid is just made of stone (although my gut tells me he's more emotional than that). All things considered, I think he should go. He has potential, scouts know that, NBA teams know that. I think most people know that this year was tough for him. I don't think he'll be picked in the first round at this point, but I do think there are downside risks to him returning. So, all things considered, he should probably leave.

Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.

Frank - I think he should stay. I think he's trended up toward the end of this year, but I think he's another guy that could legitimately go mid-lottery next year if he stays. He has a huge ceiling and the freshman-sophomore jump looms large for him.

Marques - Gotta stay. You can't teach his size and wingspan. I think he's surefire NBA material no matter when he leaves. Someone will draft that body. So why leave now when he can significantly benefit another year (or more).

So all things considered, I'd expect Amile and Matt, Sean, Jayson, Harry, and Grayson to leave for the NBA after this season. I think Luke, Frank, and Marques return. Odds, anyone?

- Chillin

No odds, but I'll bet against you. Let's take Sean out of this, because he's not going to play at Duke next year regardless of if he stays or goes. Sad reality.

I say Jayson, Harry, Grayson, Luke, and Marques all bolt. 7 players (including Amile and Matt) gone. 8 if you include Obi.

kAzE
03-08-2017, 01:48 PM
Luke - I think he should stay. He strikes me as an outstanding college player that doesn't have a surefire NBA future. Don't confuse that with me not rooting for him or loving his game. I think he's had a terrific season and can still improve. That said, Luke's bread and butter in college (his heady midrange game along with a bevvy of penetration moves to get him there) won't exist in the NBA. At least I don't think it will. He's not going to be able to put Avery Bradley, Khris Middleton, or Rodney Hood into a blender on a regular basis and then get a shot up and and around Towns, Whiteside, or Steven Adams who commits helpside if necessary. It's just not gonna happen. I'd utterly love to be proven wrong, trust me. So, if I end up being right, and Luke is going to be solely a three-point specialist in the NBA, I think he needs to stay and get stronger and work on his defense. He's one guy that seems low-risk to falling way down the draft next year. I think he's the exact type of player that should go higher next year than this year given all the considerations. He's different than Grayson despite people wanting to point to Grayson's season as a cautionary tale to returning. I find Luke to be in a considerably different situation than Grayson was last year. So all things considered, I'd advise him to stay.


These are all the same arguments people made against Steph Curry when he came out. The fact is, guys who are gifted and savvy shooters/scorers can make it in the NBA. Defense is great to have, but good defenders are much easier to find than guys who have the scoring ability of Luke Kennard.

We probably disagree on this, but I actually do think he can become good enough offensively to be the #1 or #2 option at times in an NBA offense, especially off the bench. The only thing that really matters is if his offensive contributions can outweigh whatever he gives up on the other end. Guys like Isaiah Thomas and Steph Curry are pretty big liabilities on defense, but they more than make up for it with the scoring and floor spacing they provide on offense.

He's also not undersized at all. He's legitimately between 6'5" and 6'6", and would at least be able to shoot comfortably over most NBA guards.

Now to be clear, Luke is not on Steph Curry's level of ability at the time he as drafted, but you'd be hard pressed to find 5 guys who have a more complete offensive game in this draft than Luke Kennard. He's that good.

duke74
03-10-2017, 08:07 AM
NY Daily News today. Tatum good for Knicks.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/duke-jayson-tatum-perfect-fit-knicks-article-1.2993715?D&utm_content=bufferd7314&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=NYDNSports+Twitter

Billy Dat
03-15-2017, 10:43 AM
Good NCAA tournament-themed podcast focused on potential NBA draftees in the field with Adrian Wojnarowski and Draft Express' Jonathan Givony
https://art19.com/shows/vertical/episodes/2e69cf77-44f0-471f-88e6-2a7f97c07a33

They discuss a lot of reasons why guys should consider going back to school, not just "they aren't good enough" reasons but also the lifestyle in the Gatorade League (new name for D-League), how pro programs can form opinions during the evaluation process that are hard to change, etc.

Good article on NBA prospects in the tournament
https://theringer.com/march-madness-nba-scouting-2017-draft-lonzo-ball-jayson-tatum-malik-monk-99f7ffd4e3ec#.yv42aqxl7

Both pieces feature lots of Duke talk

chriso
03-15-2017, 11:17 AM
Hard to win a championship without upperclass players who have contributed in prior year. Almost never goes well. Unlike UK who has this model but plays is an easier conference- Duke is getting tested every night. This large exodus of experienced (and unexperienced) players could set Duke back- particularly if Duke fills its roster with other possible one and dones.
Yes it seems we'll be young next year as my heart tells me Grayson and Luke will go. Really hope I'm wrong. But Bolden and Jackson and Jeter are a nice core and if we get Knox and esp. Duvall we'll be rolling again. Young for sure. But I agree that getting Grayson or Luke back makes us a title contender. Without it we could be but a lot of youth would have to step up. But the future looks bright!:)

niveklaen
03-15-2017, 11:39 AM
I wonder about the NBA's contract rules and how they may effect Gile's decision. You hear occasionally about guys 'betting on themselves' and signing 1 year deals. Can 2nd round draft picks do this? I know first round picks are tied in to 4yr deals with team options on years 3 and 4, but I seem to recall hearing about 2nd guys signing shorter deals. If that is an option, Giles might prefer being a 2nd round pick to a late first round pick so that he could get to his 2nd contract sooner and have free agency rights sooner.

(I recognize that I might be misremembering and that the 1yr guys were undrafted rather than 2nd round in which case it would not help Giles...)

flyingdutchdevil
03-15-2017, 11:40 AM
Good NCAA tournament-themed podcast focused on potential NBA draftees in the field with Adrian Wojnarowski and Draft Express' Jonathan Givony
https://art19.com/shows/vertical/episodes/2e69cf77-44f0-471f-88e6-2a7f97c07a33

They discuss a lot of reasons why guys should consider going back to school, not just "they aren't good enough" reasons but also the lifestyle in the Gatorade League (new name for D-League), how pro programs can form opinions during the evaluation process that are hard to change, etc.

Good article on NBA prospects in the tournament
https://theringer.com/march-madness-nba-scouting-2017-draft-lonzo-ball-jayson-tatum-malik-monk-99f7ffd4e3ec#.yv42aqxl7

Both pieces feature lots of Duke talk

Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.

kAzE
03-15-2017, 01:23 PM
Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.

Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

brlftz
03-15-2017, 01:47 PM
Woj's podcast is interesting. Basically argues that Jayson can easily be #1.

My take: #1 will be team-specific. If the Nets win, the Celtics draft Tatum. If the Lakers, Phoenix, Orlando, Philly, Sacramento, or Knicks win, it's a PG at #1.

Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

budwom
03-15-2017, 01:49 PM
Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'....Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

flyingdutchdevil
03-15-2017, 01:51 PM
Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

Nope. But he can shift to the 2 pretty easily. He's big enough (6'5").

luburch
03-15-2017, 02:02 PM
Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'...Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

He didn't ask for the deal because he wanted it. He asked for the deal so people would talk about him and his family.

kAzE
03-15-2017, 02:03 PM
Wait, has LA given up on D'Lo?

They might, if he keeps doing stuff like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mot6cLNLrZw

:o

SCMatt33
03-15-2017, 02:19 PM
I wonder about the NBA's contract rules and how they may effect Gile's decision. You hear occasionally about guys 'betting on themselves' and signing 1 year deals. Can 2nd round draft picks do this? I know first round picks are tied in to 4yr deals with team options on years 3 and 4, but I seem to recall hearing about 2nd guys signing shorter deals. If that is an option, Giles might prefer being a 2nd round pick to a late first round pick so that he could get to his 2nd contract sooner and have free agency rights sooner.

(I recognize that I might be misremembering and that the 1yr guys were undrafted rather than 2nd round in which case it would not help Giles...)

Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

COYS
03-15-2017, 02:39 PM
Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

Yeah, the teams picking at the end of the 1st round (San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland, Houston, etc) are already really good and can easily afford to spend a low risk, high reward draft pick on Harry Giles. As it is, most players picked late in the first round do not become major factors in the NBA. As of 2015, there have only been 9 players who became All Stars (http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/24/8652941/a-look-at-late-first-round-nba-draft-picks-of-the-last-20-years) that were selected 21-30 in the draft over the previous 20 years. 9/200. Why not go with someone who had superstar potential before his injuries? Getting a rotation player as the 28th pick in the draft is a win. If Harry's healthy, he will DEFINITELY be capable of being a rotation player in the NBA. I just can't see a GM letting him slip to the second round. Harry seems like a perfect choice for a team hoping to get the next Tony Parker, Josh Howard, or Jimmy Butler as a late-round steal.

sammy3469
03-15-2017, 02:51 PM
Yes, 2nd round players can bet on themselves by taking short, non-guaranteed deals, however, in the last year or so, the momentum has shifted away from this because the exploding cap has allowed teams to offer a little more guaranteed money without worrying too much about cap implications if they want to cut the player. I'm unsure, however, how the new CBA that will go into effect this summer might affect that dynamic. I think in Giles case, however, he's shown enough flashes that teams won't let sit around until the 2nd round.

Giles will almost certainly be gone in the 15-20 range if not sooner. Some team will take the chance that he'll get back close to his previous form (I know I don't trust Chad Ford, but says he could see him in the 5-10 range). There's just too much upside there and once you get past the top 9-10-11 (depending on how you feel about Isaac, Williams, Ntilikina) the draft is pretty even.

Givony does make an interesting point in Woj's podcast though. With the rookie scale the way it is and the introduction of 2-way contracts, a whole bunch of the guys taken from 15-30 (nevermind second round picks) will end up spending even more time in the D-League. These lower first round guys will be making "only" 1-2 million a year and it's going to make more sense to send them to play there, then let them sit on the bench since the end of the bench can now be filled with two-way guys. So for these guys the decision may go from NBA with NBA salary and NBA benefits versus college to D-League with NBA salary and D-League benefits (i.e have fun getting to Sioux Falls)...i.e. this is the Frank Jackson should stay another year argument.

Billy Dat
03-15-2017, 03:20 PM
Givony does make an interesting point in Woj's podcast though. With the rookie scale the way it is and the introduction of 2-way contracts, a whole bunch of the guys taken from 15-30 (nevermind second round picks) will end up spending even more time in the D-League. These lower first round guys will be making "only" 1-2 million a year and it's going to make more sense to send them to play there, then let them sit on the bench since the end of the bench can now be filled with two-way guys. So for these guys the decision may go from NBA with NBA salary and NBA benefits versus college to D-League with NBA salary and D-League benefits (i.e have fun getting to Sioux Falls)...i.e. this is the Frank Jackson should stay another year argument.

This part was really interesting. I like the point he made about kids at some programs (Duke included, as we know) fly on chartered planes and stay in 4/5 star hotels. If they wind up in the Gatorade league, that will not be their reality and many wind up saying, "Hmm, maybe it had it pretty good in college".

SCMatt33
03-15-2017, 03:39 PM
Yeah, the teams picking at the end of the 1st round (San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland, Houston, etc) are already really good and can easily afford to spend a low risk, high reward draft pick on Harry Giles. As it is, most players picked late in the first round do not become major factors in the NBA. As of 2015, there have only been 9 players who became All Stars (http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/24/8652941/a-look-at-late-first-round-nba-draft-picks-of-the-last-20-years) that were selected 21-30 in the draft over the previous 20 years. 9/200. Why not go with someone who had superstar potential before his injuries? Getting a rotation player as the 28th pick in the draft is a win. If Harry's healthy, he will DEFINITELY be capable of being a rotation player in the NBA. I just can't see a GM letting him slip to the second round. Harry seems like a perfect choice for a team hoping to get the next Tony Parker, Josh Howard, or Jimmy Butler as a late-round steal.

The main reason is that most of those guys aren't even around by pick 20. I agree with Sammy3469 that Giles is gone long before the late first. If Embiid can go 3 and Noel can go 5 (I know Hinkie doesn't have a job but still...) I think that late lottery to mid 1st is likely for Giles.

gwlaw99
03-15-2017, 04:48 PM
Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

I think Jayson will have to have a hell of a tournament to go #1 even to Boston with all the hype Fultz has.

Indoor66
03-15-2017, 04:52 PM
I think Jayson will have to have a hell of a tournament to go #1 even to Boston with all the hype Fultz has.

I have no idea who will go #1 but I think Pro scouts are a little more sophisticated than being heavily swayed by sports writers and SID hype.

sammy3469
03-15-2017, 05:03 PM
Thanks for posting those. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Jayson could go #1, even to some of those other teams. I think he proved without much doubt that he was the best player in the ACC tournament (despite Luke winning MVP), while Ball didn't really do the same in the Pac-12 tournament, and Fultz didn't even play, due to a sore knee. Regardless, I do think the #1 pick will be one of these 3 guys.

If we make the Final Four, it will probably be in large part because Jayson Tatum had some big games and destroyed some really good teams. Ball & Fultz could both also go #1, and justifiably so, but the difference is that 6'8" superstars are much harder to come by than 6'5" superstars.

There's probably only 10 or fewer guys 6'8" or taller in the NBA who have a better offensive game than Jayson projects to have at the next level. The NBA is all about match ups. There are a ton of point guards who can match up with Ball and Fultz, because point guard is far and away the deepest position in the league, but how many guys can really guard Jayson, once he matures?

Jayson's problem is that he's essentially doing it against college 4's (I've heard more than one NBA scout make a comparison to Winslow looking great playing the 4 for us). Now arguably his most value in the NBA would be as a potential stretch 4, but he's really being evaluated as a 3 right now with the NBA scouts seeing 2 weakness; his long range shooting and quickness in releasing off the catch. Both can be corrected (and the history of guys with his FT% doing so is good), but some do wonder how he'll do against NBA 3s.

Likewise, scouts wonder if Ball's shot translates as well. Scouts generally don't have these types of questions with Fultz which is why most think he'll be the first pick.

CDu
03-15-2017, 05:23 PM
Jayson's problem is that he's essentially doing it against college 4's (I've heard more than one NBA scout make a comparison to Winslow looking great playing the 4 for us). Now arguably his most value in the NBA would be as a potential stretch 4, but he's really being evaluated as a 3 right now with the NBA scouts seeing 2 weakness; his long range shooting and quickness in releasing off the catch. Both can be corrected (and the history of guys with his FT% doing so is good), but some do wonder how he'll do against NBA 3s.

Likewise, scouts wonder if Ball's shot translates as well. Scouts generally don't have these types of questions with Fultz which is why most think he'll be the first pick.

Most college 4s would be NBA 3s. Playing the college 4 didn't hurt Luol Deng among others.

flyingdutchdevil
03-15-2017, 05:45 PM
Most college 4s would be NBA 3s. Playing the college 4 didn't hurt Luol Deng among others.

You mean like Jabari, Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, Knox, etc? Play the 4 at Duke - if you can shoot - will elevate the hell out of your stock.

sammy makes an interesting point about shooting, and Jabari and (especially) Winslow have struggled, but this is Tatum's bread and butter. The dude is shooting 87% on FTs. I repeat - 87%!!!!!!!!

kAzE
03-15-2017, 06:00 PM
You mean like Jabari, Ingram, Winslow, Tatum, Knox, etc? Play the 4 at Duke - if you can shoot - will elevate the hell out of your stock.

sammy makes an interesting point about shooting, and Jabari and (especially) Winslow have struggled, but this is Tatum's bread and butter. The dude is shooting 87% on FTs. I repeat - 87%!!!!!!!!

Jabari was shooting 36.5% on about 3.5 attempts per game from 3 this season prior to his latest injury. He just turned 22 today. I think he's going to be a fine shooter if he can put his injuries behind him for good.

By the way - Happy birthday, Jabari! :)

bob blue devil
03-15-2017, 06:40 PM
Ball's a good player, but LOL at his obnoxious dad wanting a billion dollar shoe deal for this three kids, two of whom have done nuthin'...Durant gets $300 million, good luck Papa Bell.

this whole thing is really interesting. durant probably could get a lot more if he was less vanilla. lavar, not sure if it's genius or dumb luck, is really building a potentially valuable brand. granted, the brand doesn't appeal to me, but i can see the bravado and staying in the news translating into big money for him... if his kids can continue to back it up with strong play.

kAzE
05-03-2017, 12:43 PM
Latest DraftExpress update (Apr 26) shows Luke rising in the rankings: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

I wonder if there's any chance he could go in the lottery? His skills and areas of strength are very, very attractive in the current era of the NBA. Luke would be a difference maker on a number of playoff teams right now.

Also, Frank Jackson is still not in this mock draft, which I think is a sign that the DraftExpress folks also think he's only testing the waters.

luburch
05-03-2017, 12:50 PM
Latest DraftExpress update (Apr 26) shows Luke rising in the rankings: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

I wonder if there's any chance he could go in the lottery? His skills and areas of strength are very, very attractive in the current era of the NBA. Luke would be a difference maker on a number of playoff teams right now.

Also, Frank Jackson is still not in this mock draft, which I think is a sign that the DraftExpress folks also think he's only testing the waters.

Also has Harry at 27 to the Nets. Anywhere but the Nets please.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-03-2017, 12:52 PM
Also has Harry at 27 to the Nets. Anywhere but the Nets please.

Anywhere? The 76ers say hello.

luburch
05-03-2017, 12:55 PM
Anywhere? The 76ers say hello.

I'd prefer the 76ers over the Nets if I was forced to choose. The 76ers at least have exciting prospects. The Nets have nothing.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-03-2017, 01:01 PM
I'd prefer the 76ers over the Nets if I was forced to choose. The 76ers at least have exciting prospects. The Nets have nothing.

I would run and hide from the dumpster fire that is the 76ers.

JasonEvans
05-03-2017, 01:07 PM
I would run and hide from the dumpster fire that is the 76ers.

As luburch said, the 76ers show a lot, lot, lot more promise than the Nets at this point. Not really even close.

I still sorta can't believe that Giles could last into the mid-20s. I mean, IF he ever gets healthy, he's one of the freak athletes in the NBA, right? How many guys who gets drafted outside the lottery will have a real chance to be All-NBA someday? Giles absolutely does.

-Jason "I really, really hope Kennard is available when my Hawks pick... and that the team is smart enough to take him if he is there" Evans

English
05-03-2017, 01:08 PM
I would run and hide from the dumpster fire that is the 76ers.

At least the Nets have some exciting draft prospe...oh wait, no, they've traded their best draft rights away for much of the foreseeable future to land assets that are no longer with the team. And their roster is bare. But, certainly, the Nets being an absolute nightmare landing spot for a prospect and the 76ers being a dumpster fire of a franchise are not mutually exclusive concepts.

Count me among those that think being stranded on the Nets right now is appreciably worse than ending up with the '6ers.

Natty_B
05-03-2017, 01:11 PM
I still sorta can't believe that Giles could last into the mid-20s.

I have a totally unfounded hunch that Giles will be the Thon Maker of this draft aka a big drafted on potential who goes much higher than most mocks have him listed.

English
05-03-2017, 01:14 PM
As luburch said, the 76ers show a lot, lot, lot more promise than the Nets at this point. Not really even close.

I still sorta can't believe that Giles could last into the mid-20s. I mean, IF he ever gets healthy, he's one of the freak athletes in the NBA, right? How many guys who gets drafted outside the lottery will have a real chance to be All-NBA someday? Giles absolutely does.

-Jason "I really, really hope Kennard is available when my Hawks pick... and that the team is smart enough to take him if he is there" Evans

Not a lot, for sure, although currently Kawhi Leonard (15th pick) is among active all-NBA players drafted outside the lottery.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-03-2017, 01:24 PM
Not a lot, for sure, although currently Kawhi Leonard (15th pick) is among active all-NBA players drafted outside the lottery.

Everyone knows the Spurs have an inhuman ability to find late draft talent.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-03-2017, 01:27 PM
Everyone knows the Spurs have an inhuman ability to find late draft talent.

Since drafting Timmy D #1 in 1997, the Spurs have picked higher than 26th **once** in 20 years.

UrinalCake
05-03-2017, 02:06 PM
Giles's draft stock is going to be completely dependent on how his medical exams go. That's been known since the start of the season. If he checks out as 100% healthy and in the combine drills can show the athleticism he had in high school (which he never showed at Duke), he could vault to a mid first-round pick. OTOH if there's any hesitancy at all that he's fully recovered, or that he hasn't regained his prior form by now, then he's going to take a nose dive. It's a tough position for him to be in, but understandable from the standpoint of the NBA GM's.

I really thought he should have entered without an agent just in case his physicals don't go well and he falls entirely out of the second round. Then he could come back and prove himself on the court. But I also get that having an agent advocating for him throughout this process is a necessity.

CDu
05-03-2017, 02:17 PM
Not a lot, for sure, although currently Kawhi Leonard (15th pick) is among active all-NBA players drafted outside the lottery.

DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Lowry, and Draymond Green too. And Jimmy Butler and Isiah Thomas will likely join them this year.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-03-2017, 02:18 PM
Giles's draft stock is going to be completely dependent on how his medical exams go. That's been known since the start of the season. If he checks out as 100% healthy and in the combine drills can show the athleticism he had in high school (which he never showed at Duke), he could vault to a mid first-round pick. OTOH if there's any hesitancy at all that he's fully recovered, or that he hasn't regained his prior form by now, then he's going to take a nose dive. It's a tough position for him to be in, but understandable from the standpoint of the NBA GM's.

I really thought he should have entered without an agent just in case his physicals don't go well and he falls entirely out of the second round. Then he could come back and prove himself on the court. But I also get that having an agent advocating for him throughout this process is a necessity.

Good point about the agent advocating for him - Harry is going to need a good agent and really good doctors working for him, though I'm sure all of the teams will have their own medical teams checking him out. I believe I read somewhere upthread about Luke's agent, though I don't recall who it was. Is there any info on who Tatum and Harry signed with? This does not get much press but it is always an interesting indicator of how much influence Coach K (or any other college coach) has on the process vs. former AAU coaches, handlers, etc.

kAzE
05-03-2017, 02:23 PM
I think Harry's current ranking in mocks is just a placeholder, and is highly likely to fluctuate based on medical reports and/or his performance at the NBA combine. If everything with his health checks out, and he looks good in his workouts, I think it's quite probable that he goes in the back end of the lottery.

ncexnyc
05-03-2017, 02:52 PM
I'm sorry, but if I'm a GM with a lottery pick there is no way I'm gambling that pick on Harry Giles. With multiple knee procedures already, he screams I'm the second coming of Sam Bowie and Greg Odom all rolled into one.

English
05-03-2017, 03:01 PM
I'm sorry, but if I'm a GM with a lottery pick there is no way I'm gambling that pick on Harry Giles. With multiple knee procedures already, he screams I'm the second coming of Sam Bowie and Greg Odom all rolled into one.

Who?

And yet, Joel Embiid went top-3 even AFTER the cautionary tales of Sam Bowie and Greg Oden were well written.

phaedrus
05-03-2017, 03:09 PM
I'm sorry, but if I'm a GM with a lottery pick there is no way I'm gambling that pick on Harry Giles. With multiple knee procedures already, he screams I'm the second coming of Sam Bowie and Greg Odom all rolled into one.

The only GMs who should be worried about picking the next Sam Bowie or Greg Oden are those with the #1 or #2 pick, and then only if they pass over the next Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant. No one (or at least no one smart) would have criticized the GM who picked Sam Bowie or Greg Oden 15th overall.

kAzE
05-03-2017, 03:17 PM
The only GMs who should be worried about picking the next Sam Bowie or Greg Oden are those with the #1 or #2 pick, and then only if they pass over the next Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant. No one (or at least no one smart) would have criticized the GM who picked Sam Bowie or Greg Oden 15th overall.

Correct. when you're picking 14th or 15th, the chance of getting a future all-NBA player is so low, that it's well worth the risk to swing for the fences. The difference between that level of player versus a slightly above replacement level player (which is on average what you would expect to get from a mid first round pick) is so dramatic, that most teams are absolutely willing to spend a pick like that on Harry Giles. I would be shocked to see him still on the board past pick #20.

ncexnyc
05-03-2017, 03:38 PM
Who?

And yet, Joel Embiid went top-3 even AFTER the cautionary tales of Sam Bowie and Greg Oden were well written.

I wouldn't put much stock in that fact, as you can see above, the 76er's are called a dumpster fire for a very good reason.

I love our kids as much as the next guy, but you have to remember some on here were touting Okafor over Towns.

BD80
05-03-2017, 05:06 PM
Everyone knows the Spurs have an inhuman ability to find late draft talent.


Since drafting Timmy D #1 in 1997, the Spurs have picked higher than 26th **once** in 20 years.

Whenever they picked up the voodoo priestess that has been guiding the Spurs draft process, that set the tone.

I'm not sure she was even drafted: she was a foreign prospect who had been living in NOLA for a couple of hundred years

drummerdevil
05-03-2017, 06:32 PM
I'm just hoping the T-Wolves get a good enough pick for Tatum- and that they don't blow it and get us a fourth point guard.

JasonEvans
05-03-2017, 08:06 PM
DeAndre Jordan, Kyle Lowry, and Draymond Green too. And Jimmy Butler and Isiah Thomas will likely join them this year.

Just so we are clear, I was not saying it was impossible for a non-lottery pick to be an All-NBA kind of player. I am aware of many examples of guys who were taken late but who turned into excellent players (if not All-NBA). CDu named several really good ones and I would add to his list Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, Trevor Ariza, Monta Ellis, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Manu Ginobli, Carlos Boozer, Mark Price, and Dennis Rodman (perhaps the best 2nd round pick in modern NBA* history... I need to do some research on this). There are many more.

I was merely pointing out that --d espite those names -- it is exceedingly rare to get All-star level talent from guys outside the lottery. Once you get into the mid-late teens you've got less than a 50-50 chance of even drafting a guy who will consistently start at some point in his career, let alone be a real impact player. But, we all know that Harry has the potential to be a truly special player. No GM ever lost his job for messing up a mid-teen pick by taking a crazy telent that did not pan out. The more I think about it the less likely I think it is that Harry lasts until even the 20th pick in the draft.

-Jason "I double-dog guarantee you that if he is somehow on the board in the late 20s when the Spurs are drafting, it will take only a few seconds for the best drafting team in the NBA to figure out what to do" Evans

* - There was a time when the NBA had regional draft picking and other strange rules which makes comparisons to the modern draft (post 1980) pretty unreliable

superdave
05-05-2017, 12:06 PM
Cool article ranking the best 2nd rounders since 1989 - http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/nba-draft-best-second-round-draymond-green-ginobili-gasol-ranks

Manu is a hall of famer. Draymond could be eventually. The rest of these guys had some highs, but did not quite achieve greatness for a sustained period. ie Boozer was a two time All-Star with $146m in career earnings but a 0.6% chance of making the Hall according to Basketball Reference: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/boozeca01.html

brevity
05-16-2017, 08:57 AM
Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19389320/2017-nba-draft-magic-johnson-joel-embiid-devin-booker-headline-draft-lottery-reps) -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-16-2017, 09:08 AM
Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19389320/2017-nba-draft-magic-johnson-joel-embiid-devin-booker-headline-draft-lottery-reps) -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

The lottery is the most pointless show there is as you can easily turn it on 2 minutes from the end and find out what happened, but it is appointment TV for me every year. I am personally excited to share with non-New Yorkers the sartorial splendor of Walt Frazier representing the Knicks - I'm sure he will be wearing one of his finest custom suits.

brevity
05-16-2017, 08:22 PM
Every year DBR does a Mock Draft, but why don't we do a Mock Lottery? Maybe we should...

DBR Mock Lottery: Historic Ratings-Drawing Franchises "Magic"ally Win Highly Uncorruptable Process

NEW YORK, NY -- The fates of a handful of NBA franchises were decided Tuesday night, as the 2017 NBA Draft lottery took place at the New York Hilton Midtown. To the delight of uncreative fans and cable TV executives, the Los Angeles Lakers received the first overall pick and the Boston Celtics finished second. The New York Knicks, which had only an 18.3 percent chance of jumping into the Top 3, did just that, winning the third pick.

Magic Johnson, who represented the Lakers on stage in his first year as President of Basketball Operations, was all smiles as his team held onto a pick they could have lost to the Philadelphia 76ers had they fallen out of the Top 3. "Showtime returns today," he said. "I was getting tired of HBO."

Johnson did not specify whether he would be drafting UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball, whose father Lavar Ball has been making headlines in the past few months. Lots and lots of clickable ESPN headlines. And generating sweet, sweet hot takes on all those panel shows. So, yeah, the Lakers are taking Lonzo Ball.

Former Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak had only positive things to say about the results. "It was pretty close to my mock lottery board," he said. "I don't have much to do these days, so I played that ESPN lottery generator about 10,000 times and picked my favorite outcomes. That's science, right?"

Not everyone was convinced of the sanctity of the lottery process. "The fix was in because Magic Johnson is a star, and ESPN loses millions if they can't promote a Celtics-Lakers rivalry that no longer exists," said a mysterious phone caller. "I've done this before. Call me Dav -- uh, Daniel. No wait, Daniel Stern is that actor from Home Alone. I mean, not that my name is Stern. I'm nobody. Um, forget everything I said. Goodbye."

Olympic Fan
05-16-2017, 08:26 PM
The lottery drawing, coming up in a few minutes, is going to have special resonance this year since the Lakers owe the 76ers their first round pick -- unless it's in the top three.

And Boston gets the Nets' first round pick no matter where it is -- and it can't be worse than fourth.

flyingdutchdevil
05-16-2017, 08:57 PM
The rich get richer, my friend. Boston with the #1 pick.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-16-2017, 09:14 PM
Ball in LA will be America's worst nightmare. Please spare us from this misery!

Clyde did not underwhelm with his dapper attire.

flyingdutchdevil
05-17-2017, 09:57 AM
If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.

niveklaen
05-17-2017, 10:40 AM
This is what the NBA needs to do to make the lottery more entertaining, heighten league rivalries, and dis-incentivize tanking:

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/05/nba_draft_lottery_2015_how_to_fix_the_broken_nba_d raft_system_and_prevent.html

I would so watch this and it would create crazy great story lines throughout the season

kAzE
05-17-2017, 10:48 AM
If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.

Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.

flyingdutchdevil
05-17-2017, 10:54 AM
Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.

Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

kAzE
05-17-2017, 11:12 AM
Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

I dunno, I think you have a long way to go to catch LeBron and the Cavs within the next 2-3 years. I think the more realistic window for Boston is in 2020-2023, whenever LeBron finally starts to slow down, and before Giannis gets enough help to take over the league. Horford will be effective for a long time, his game was never about his explosiveness to begin with. He will continue to be a nice spot up shooter, passer, and defensive specialist well into his 30s.

I'm not sure about the long term future of Thomas with the franchise, since he will be asking for a ton of money in a couple of years. He's a Boston fan favorite, that's for sure, but a 1-way player getting paid max money is not a great asset. That's why you need Fultz. He's a cheap Isaiah replacement who has way better potential, both as a scorer and defender. And I think he's more NBA ready than you are letting on.

You still have multiple first round picks (including Brookyn's 2018, Clippers' and Grizzlies' 2019, and your own picks in those years) that you can deal for a veteran player to round out the roster. Passing on Fultz in this draft would be a mistake IMO. Fultz, Bradley, Horford, and Brown are a core who could contend in few years. I just don't see it happening for the Celtics as long as LeBron is still in his prime. If (and most likely when) he beats the Celtics this year, it'll be 7 straight Finals. He's a machine.

flyingdutchdevil
05-17-2017, 11:27 AM
I dunno, I think you have a long way to go to catch LeBron and the Cavs within the next 2-3 years. I think the more realistic window for Boston is in 2020-2023, whenever LeBron finally starts to slow down, and before Giannis gets enough help to take over the league. Horford will be effective for a long time, his game was never about his explosiveness to begin with. He will continue to be a nice spot up shooter, passer, and defensive specialist well into his 30s.

I'm not sure about the long term future of Thomas with the franchise, since he will be asking for a ton of money in a couple of years. He's a Boston fan favorite, that's for sure, but a 1-way player getting paid max money is not a great asset. That's why you need Fultz. He's a cheap Isaiah replacement who has way better potential, both as a scorer and defender. And I think he's more NBA ready than you are letting on.

You still have multiple first round picks (including Brookyn's 2018, Clippers' and Grizzlies' 2019, and your own picks in those years) that you can deal for a veteran player to round out the roster. Passing on Fultz in this draft would be a mistake IMO. Fultz, Bradley, Horford, and Brown are a core who could contend in few years. I just don't see it happening for the Celtics as long as LeBron is still in his prime. If (and most likely when) he beats the Celtics this year, it'll be 7 straight Finals. He's a machine.

Kyrie says hello.

Isaiah will get max money, and the Celtics will happily pay. He sells lots of tickets and is most certainly part of the reason they are in the Eastern Conference Finals (yes, yes, East sucks. But that's still a big accomplishment). For the record, I agree that Isaiah isn't the best player (Bradley gets that. He's arguably one of the best 2-way players in the game and his offense isn't bad). But he adds a lot of value.

I disagree with your window. Horford will be super old by 2020 and likely a rotation player rather than a top 3 player on the Celts. Bradley will be in the downhill side of his prime. The window is the next 2-3 years.

superdave
05-17-2017, 11:43 AM
If I am Boston, and believe the Lakers want Ball, I move Ball to #1 on my Draft Board and let it be known.

Then you can trade the #1 and Isaiah Thomas for the #2 and one of Ingram/Russell/Randle.

Boston would have Fultz to play right away and avoid having to pay a max deal to Thomas. Celtics fans may riot, but do you really want to pay 29 year old Thomas $25m a year once his contract is up next year? Thomas is cool but at 5'7'', his body aint gonna last. Sell high.

The Lakers do this because they've been in re-build mode too long, are likely to get Paul George or another mega free agent soon and want to win now. Boston is winning now and can still play the long game.



If I'm Boston, I would want Fultz - who can play the 1 or the 2 - but the truth is that he's likely a slight upgrade over Avery/Thomas. Crowder is good, but he's a defensive specialist. The player that the Celts should be gunning for is Jayson Tatum. However, taking Tatum at the 1 doesn't make much sense, given that Fultz/Ball are seen as higher draftable prospects.

So, what do you do? My two cents? Switch picks with the 76ers or the Suns. Both really, really covet Fultz. Both need him (especially if the Suns offload Bledsoe this offseason). And, in return, the Celts can get another player (like Okafor, TJ Warren, or even an unhappy Bledsoe).

It's hilarious to me that the Celts need SF/PF help more than anything and the top 2-3 picks are guards.


Isaiah Thomas is an elite scorer, but that guy kills you on defense, and he's already 28, which means he's probably not going to be doing this for much longer than 3-5 more years at his size. The guy takes a lot of punishment. His ultimate destiny is a scorer off the bench. I'd take Fultz, groom him for a couple of years, and then re-focus the team around him when the time is right, but keep Thomas as a spark plug off the bench.

You don't need Tatum, you already have your small forward of the future in Jaylen Brown. Fultz is the best prospect, he's someone who is as close to a sure All-Star as there is in this draft.


Boston can ill-afford to groom a player right now. Their window is the next 2-3 years. As you mentioned, Isaiah is 28. Horford is 30. Bradley is 26 (with 2 years left on his extremely favorable contract). Tatum is by far the most NBA-ready player. He can be used in the rotation today and be a starter during his second year.

I would hope the Celtics either trade the pick for a superstar or trade down and get a veteran plus a top 5 pick for Tatum. I think those are their best options. Fultz is likely to be an All-Star, but he's merely not ready and Bradley/Isaiah are much better players right now.

kAzE
05-17-2017, 11:52 AM
If I am Boston, and believe the Lakers want Ball, I move Ball to #1 on my Draft Board and let it be known.

Then you can trade the #1 and Isaiah Thomas for the #2 and one of Ingram/Russell/Randle.


Oh man, that's sinister. I like it.

In a vacuum, I would absolutely take Ball #1 overall. He's a pure point guard, which is rare. Most point guards these days are scorers. Ball makes everyone better. But he's inextricably tied to LA and the Lakers, and his father is a real concern. I don't want that guy undermining my coach and/or GM on ESPN and Twitter every day. That's a major headache . . .

But if you can extort a young player from the Lakers and still get Fultz, that's a coup for the ages. I'm not sure they can get it done. I think the Lakers would be happy to get Fultz, and wouldn't do that trade.

ChillinDuke
05-17-2017, 11:59 AM
Bumping up this thread to remind everyone that the NBA Draft Lottery is tonight. This is your chance to see awkwardly smiling team representatives -- all dudes (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19389320/2017-nba-draft-magic-johnson-joel-embiid-devin-booker-headline-draft-lottery-reps) -- some of whom will stop smiling when they leave without any pick at all. The suits, the pageantry, the balls.

ESPN says it starts at 8pm ET, but my onscreen guide says nothing happens until 8:30pm ET. You decide.

They were both wrong. I checked my watch at 8:50pm ET when Mark Tatum fired up the podium.

- Chillin

flyingdutchdevil
05-17-2017, 12:01 PM
They were both wrong. I checked my watch at 8:50pm ET when Mark Tatum fired up the podium.

- Chillin

When you fire hundreds of employees over the last few years, you need to somehow fill the same number of hours with fewer employees. This means a) repeating content or b) lying to your viewers about the time so they decide to stick around for 50 minutes until the real content is shown.

Troublemaker
05-17-2017, 12:03 PM
Kyrie says hello.

Isaiah will get max money, and the Celtics will happily pay. He sells lots of tickets and is most certainly part of the reason they are in the Eastern Conference Finals (yes, yes, East sucks. But that's still a big accomplishment). For the record, I agree that Isaiah isn't the best player (Bradley gets that. He's arguably one of the best 2-way players in the game and his offense isn't bad). But he adds a lot of value.

I disagree with your window. Horford will be super old by 2020 and likely a rotation player rather than a top 3 player on the Celts. Bradley will be in the downhill side of his prime. The window is the next 2-3 years.

You can extend the window by drafting and keeping studs like Fultz, though. The team to emulate is the Spurs, and Boston has the coach / GM tandem for that to be a reasonable goal.

Trading away Fultz to pick Tatum would be a big, big mistake, imo. Fultz is going to be much better.

superdave
05-17-2017, 12:11 PM
If you were to trade a seasoned player for a draft pick, how closely do the salaries have to match up?

ie Can the Celtics trade Thomas straight up for a pick #3-6?

kAzE
05-17-2017, 12:14 PM
If you were to trade a seasoned player for a draft pick, how closely do the salaries have to match up?

ie Can the Celtics trade Thomas straight up for a pick #3-6?

It depends on if the team trading the pick has the cap room to take Thomas. Right now, he's only a $6 million cap hit, so he'd be easy to trade in theory, but his contract is up after next year (and he's probably as good as he will ever be right now), which makes him not that attractive as a trade asset.

Olympic Fan
05-17-2017, 02:04 PM
I know that Markelle Fultz is a consensus No. 1 talent in the draft.

Personally, I would be very wary of Fultz. His numbers look good and he passes the eyeball test, but to me, there is one huge red flag: 9-22.

Can the team that has the best pro prospect in the country finish 9-22?

ESPN had a story not long ago wondering whether NC State's struggles this season will hurt Dennis Smith's draft stock. Well, if that's a concern, why isn't Washington's 9-22 season -- a year after the Huskies went 19-15 -- a concern?

It's likely to be the second year in a row that the No. 1 NBA pick is a guy who made his college team worse -- Ben Simmons and now Markelle Fultz.

I know basketball is a team game, but shouldn't a great player make his team at least competitive? Look back at the greatest NBA players and tell me how many played on bad college teams.

Not Russell (two NCAA titles), not Jordan (one title and top 10 every year), not Oscar and not Wilt. Magic and Bird won their reputations in the 1979 NCAA title game. Shaq's teams at LSU weren't great, but they played in the NCAA Tournament. Curry took Davidson to the Elite Eight. Not Havlicek, who was in the Final Four all three seasons. Not Clyde Frazier. Westbrook played in the Final Four both his years at UCLA. Durant's one Texas team won 25 games. Harden's two years at Arizona State were the best two years that program has had in this century.

Maybe I'm missing somebody (if so, please point it out). The closest I can find is Pete Maravich, who played on two lousy LSU teams before a solid senior season. He did become a great NBA player in time, but his first pro team, the Hawks, won 12 less games his rookie year than the year before. He didn't make the all-star game until his third year. And his best years were for bad New Orleans teams -- he didn't win a playoff series until his last year, when he was a backup on the Celtics.

I'm just saying that Fultz's college record would be a huge red flag for me ... just as Simmons' was.

DangerDevil
05-17-2017, 02:05 PM
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19403402/potential-2017-nba-draft-steals

Giles listed 4th on their list of steals and Tony Bradley listed as #5.

I am staying in the camp that doesn't think Bradley is coming back.

devildeac
05-17-2017, 02:10 PM
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19403402/potential-2017-nba-draft-steals

Giles listed 4th on their list of steals and Tony Bradley listed as #5.

I am staying in the camp that doesn't think Bradley is coming back.


But ol roy still trying to get 1 (or 2, or 3) more years out of Bradley. :rolleyes:

DangerDevil
05-17-2017, 02:18 PM
Can the team that has the best pro prospect in the country finish 9-22?

ESPN had a story not long ago wondering whether NC State's struggles this season will hurt Dennis Smith's draft stock. Well, if that's a concern, why isn't Washington's 9-22 season -- a year after the Huskies went 19-15 -- a concern?

It's likely to be the second year in a row that the No. 1 NBA pick is a guy who made his college team worse -- Ben Simmons and now Markelle Fultz.


I saw the article and had the same thought, if the lack of winning and failing to make your team better is a concern for the 4th or 5th best PG in the draft, why wouldn't it be a bigger concern for the potential #1 overall pick?

More stellar journalism from the Worldwide Leader!

English
05-17-2017, 02:23 PM
If anyone doubted that Justin Jackson was a lottery talent, look no further than the No. 11 pick. What a time to be a #BuzzCity fan.

/Eye Roll emoji

Ichabod Drain
05-17-2017, 02:35 PM
I know that Markelle Fultz is a consensus No. 1 talent in the draft.

Personally, I would be very wary of Fultz. His numbers look good and he passes the eyeball test, but to me, there is one huge red flag: 9-22.

Can the team that has the best pro prospect in the country finish 9-22?

ESPN had a story not long ago wondering whether NC State's struggles this season will hurt Dennis Smith's draft stock. Well, if that's a concern, why isn't Washington's 9-22 season -- a year after the Huskies went 19-15 -- a concern?

It's likely to be the second year in a row that the No. 1 NBA pick is a guy who made his college team worse -- Ben Simmons and now Markelle Fultz.


.

Wait... how do you get that Markelle Fultz made his team worse?

TexHawk
05-17-2017, 02:38 PM
ESPN had a story not long ago wondering whether NC State's struggles this season will hurt Dennis Smith's draft stock. Well, if that's a concern, why isn't Washington's 9-22 season -- a year after the Huskies went 19-15 -- a concern?


Maybe this is just me and what I read, but I have seen *PLENTY* of doubt about Fultz's 9-22 season. That's (likely) the only thing holding him back from being a sure-fire lock #1 pick. He put up 23/6/6 in a P5 conference. For my school, that would be the best freshman season by any player in our history, non-Wilt division. YMMV on the importance of that, but it's not like he was playing in the Missouri Valley or something.

It's also a wee bit disengenous to say Fultz made Washington WORSE. The year before they were barely .500, and they lost two 1st round picks (one lotto), and another guard who averaged 21 ppg. (They lost a total of 50 ppg & 15 rpg.) Their best returning player averaged 6 ppg.

Jeffrey
05-17-2017, 02:58 PM
I disagree with your window. Horford will be super old by 2020 and likely a rotation player rather than a top 3 player on the Celts. Bradley will be in the downhill side of his prime. The window is the next 2-3 years.

Super old 2017 Lebron is one helluva rotation player! I suspect he still will be in 2018 and 2019!

elvis14
05-17-2017, 03:09 PM
Super old 2017 Lebron is one helluva rotation player! I suspect he still will be in 2018 and 2019!

I'm not entirely sure that Lebron is actually human! (and that's a compliment, BTW, wow is he playing incredible ball)

kAzE
05-17-2017, 03:22 PM
Super old 2017 Lebron is one helluva rotation player! I suspect he still will be in 2018 and 2019!

Yeah . . . I have dispute the idea that 33 is "super" old. It might be old for some players. Maybe for players with an extensive history of injuries, or players who are heavily reliant on run/jump athleticism.

However, players who have reliable jump shots can usually age quite gracefully into their mid to late 30s. Players who don't rely heavily on their athleticism to be effective age well. Fundamentally sound big men can last even longer. Horford is all of these things. As long his health permits, he should continue to be a great player well past 2020. And for all these same reasons, I think Russell Westbrook is going to drop off a cliff in his early to mid 30s.

DangerDevil
05-17-2017, 03:30 PM
I am surprised that the article linked on the front page with the Mock Draft that has the Celtics taking Tatum with the first pick doesn't propose what I think would be a win-win trade if you assume the Celtics don't want to draft Fultz.

Given the hypothetical that the Celtics want Tatum, I think they could still safely get him with the 3rd pick. Even if the 76ers gave them nothing in return they would be better off picking Tatum 3rd rather than 1st, the difference in the rookie wage scale between the 1st and 3rd picks is roughly $1.1m.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Speculation is the Celtics want to sign another max contract player this off season, namely Gordon Hayward. To sign Hayward and stay under the cap, the Celtics need to shave approximately $3.5m, trading back would get them $1.1m closer to that goal if Tatum is who they want.

Jeffrey
05-17-2017, 03:31 PM
I'm not entirely sure that Lebron is actually human! (and that's a compliment, BTW, wow is he playing incredible ball)


Yeah . . . I have dispute the idea that 33 is "super" old.


Yep, Jordan also played amazing ball at that age! Jordan earned 3 of his 6 rings after his 33rd birthday. Jabbar earned 5 of his 6 rings after his 33rd birthday.

Oshima25
05-17-2017, 04:06 PM
I am surprised that the article linked on the front page with the Mock Draft that has the Celtics taking Tatum with the first pick doesn't propose what I think would be a win-win trade if you assume the Celtics don't want to draft Fultz.

Given the hypothetical that the Celtics want Tatum, I think they could still safely get him with the 3rd pick. Even if the 76ers gave them nothing in return they would be better off picking Tatum 3rd rather than 1st, the difference in the rookie wage scale between the 1st and 3rd picks is roughly $1.1m.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Speculation is the Celtics want to sign another max contract player this off season, namely Gordon Hayward. To sign Hayward and stay under the cap, the Celtics need to shave approximately $3.5m, trading back would get them $1.1m closer to that goal if Tatum is who they want.


This is a really good point, particularly given that they of course would still get a little something from Boston. The thing that confuses me about the Celtics/Tatum rumors is that I'm not sure you target Tatum if your plan is to go after Hayward. I'm sure they can play together and kind of both be hybrid 3/4 types, but I sure hope for Tatum's sake that this kind of maneuver would also include a trade of Jae Crowder and/or Jaylen Brown, or else things with Hayward would be getting very crowded.

NM Duke Fan
05-18-2017, 08:39 AM
"You trade this pick, because he cannot help the Celtics get over the top," Pierce said about Markelle Fultz, who most everyone expects to be the top pick next month.

"You're a 50-win team, you're the No. 1 seed," Pierce added. "You have to build on this momentum. If you can acquire a Paul George, Jimmy Butler, or Gordon from Utah, you have to do it."

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/paul-pierce-says-celtics-should-trade-the-no-1-pick-window-is-right-now/

superdave
05-18-2017, 11:15 AM
"You trade this pick, because he cannot help the Celtics get over the top," Pierce said about Markelle Fultz, who most everyone expects to be the top pick next month.

"You're a 50-win team, you're the No. 1 seed," Pierce added. "You have to build on this momentum. If you can acquire a Paul George, Jimmy Butler, or Gordon from Utah, you have to do it."

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/paul-pierce-says-celtics-should-trade-the-no-1-pick-window-is-right-now/

Does Paul George or Jimmy Butler get you over the top? Hmmmm.

I would only trade this pick plus Thomas for a Towns, Davis, Harden, Kawhi or maybe 1-2 others.

JNort
05-18-2017, 11:38 AM
Does Paul George or Jimmy Butler get you over the top? Hmmmm.

I would only trade this pick plus Thomas for a Towns, Davis, Harden, Kawhi or maybe 1-2 others.

I would also do it for PG13. Not Butler though.

CDu
05-18-2017, 11:59 AM
I would also do it for PG13. Not Butler though.

That's weird. Butler is arguably the better player right now, similar in age, and also has an extra year of team control under a very cheap contract. Seems like Butler would be the more valuable commodity.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 12:27 PM
That's weird. Butler is arguably the better player right now, similar in age, and also has an extra year of team control under a very cheap contract. Seems like Butler would be the more valuable commodity.

Avery is Butler-lite. Why trade for Butler? I'd rather have PG13 over Butler for the Celts, as the 3/4 are areas of more need for the Celts.

Billy Dat
05-18-2017, 12:27 PM
Does Paul George or Jimmy Butler get you over the top? Hmmmm.

I would only trade this pick plus Thomas for a Towns, Davis, Harden, Kawhi or maybe 1-2 others.

I really think we have to wait and see what happens with the rest of the playoffs. Lebron looks super-human, the Cavs are clicking...it's hard to know what it will take to get past the Cavs until we have an accurate look at how the Cavs perform in this series and, assuming the keep rolling, the next series. If the Cavs wind up winning again, I think a team like Boston stays young and keeps building rather than swing for the fences with George, Butler or others at that level.

CDu
05-18-2017, 12:31 PM
Avery is Butler-lite. Why trade for Butler? I'd rather have PG13 over Butler for the Celts, as the 3/4 are areas of more need for the Celts.

I think that's a serious misevaluation of either Bradley or Butler. Avery Bradley is not remotely in the same category as Butler, either in caliber of player or type of player. And Butler does the same stuff Paul George would do: he is 6'7", 220, can guard anyone from PG to PF, can excel at SG, SF, or smallball PF.

I don't think Paul George is an answer at PF, and if we are comparing two SFs I think Butler is the better SF. So if you're going to trade for one of the two, I'd argue that Butler is the better option of the two.

If you are looking for help at PF, then neither George nor Butler are your answer, as both would be smallball 4s.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 12:35 PM
I think that's a serious misevaluation of either Bradley or Butler. Avery Bradley is not remotely in the same category as Butler, either in caliber of player or type of player. And Butler does the same stuff Paul George would do: he is 6'7", 220, can guard anyone from PG to PF, can excel at SG, SF, or smallball PF.

I don't think Paul George is an answer at PF, and if we are comparing two SFs I think Butler is the better SF. So if you're going to trade for one of the two, I'd argue that Butler is the better option of the two.

If you are looking for help at PF, then neither George nor Butler are your answer, as both would be smallball 4s.

Agree to disagree. How about that. As a Celts fan (and after talking with many Celts fans), there is a general consensus that we'd rather have PG13 over Butler.

CDu
05-18-2017, 12:35 PM
Agree to disagree. How about that. As a Celts fan (and after talking with many Celts fans), there is a general consensus that we'd rather have PG13 over Butler.

That's fine. Though if the rationale is that Bradley is Butler-lite, that's nuts. Butler is one of the few guys in the league who has had success defending LeBron, and is also one of the handful of best offensive players in the league.

Ultimately, though, I don't think you're getting either guy anyway.

budwom
05-18-2017, 12:37 PM
I am surprised that the article linked on the front page with the Mock Draft that has the Celtics taking Tatum with the first pick doesn't propose what I think would be a win-win trade if you assume the Celtics don't want to draft Fultz.

Given the hypothetical that the Celtics want Tatum, I think they could still safely get him with the 3rd pick. Even if the 76ers gave them nothing in return they would be better off picking Tatum 3rd rather than 1st, the difference in the rookie wage scale between the 1st and 3rd picks is roughly $1.1m.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Speculation is the Celtics want to sign another max contract player this off season, namely Gordon Hayward. To sign Hayward and stay under the cap, the Celtics need to shave approximately $3.5m, trading back would get them $1.1m closer to that goal if Tatum is who they want.

Do the Celts really need to stay under the cap?? Especially if they are only $3.5 million from this goal as you state. I know little about caps and all that, but I do know Pagliuca and his partners paid $360 million for the Celts, and now they're worth (according to Forbes) $2.2 billion....yes, some of these valuations will drop once TV revenues decline (as ESPN and others come to their senses), but still, if you're ultra wealthy and you have an unrealized gain of almost two billion dollars sitting there, do you really care about three million bucks? What would Prokey do???:cool:

Wander
05-18-2017, 12:46 PM
It's likely to be the second year in a row that the No. 1 NBA pick is a guy who made his college team worse -- Ben Simmons and now Markelle Fultz.

I'm just saying that Fultz's college record would be a huge red flag for me ... just as Simmons' was.

LSU went from an 11-7 SEC record with Simmons to a 2-16 SEC record without him.

Don't get me wrong, you are correct that the 2016 LSU team was a pathetic underachieving disappointment, and they did lose more than Simmons from that team. But Fultz and that Washington team is in a whole other ballpark. Like you say, I don't know of a good comparison.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 12:50 PM
if you're ultra wealthy and you have an unrealized gain of almost two billion dollars sitting there, do you really care about three million bucks?

Absolutely! That's how most became ultra wealthy. Three million here, three million there, starts to add up really fast.

CDu
05-18-2017, 12:55 PM
Do the Celts really need to stay under the cap?? Especially if they are only $3.5 million from this goal as you state. I know little about caps and all that, but I do know Pagliuca and his partners paid $360 million for the Celts, and now they're worth (according to Forbes) $2.2 billion...yes, some of these valuations will drop once TV revenues decline (as ESPN and others come to their senses), but still, if you're ultra wealthy and you have an unrealized gain of almost two billion dollars sitting there, do you really care about three million bucks? What would Prokey do???:cool:

It has nothing to do with the wealth of the franchise. You can't sign Gordon Hayward (or any other external free agent) unless you have enough space under the cap to do so.

You can go over the cap to re-sign your own players, but you cannot just say "well, I'm near the cap, but I'm rich, so I'll just go over the cap."

Now, I don't know if it is true that they are that close to the edge of being able to afford a max free agent. It's probably pretty close. But if they are, then that extra $3 million could indeed make a huge difference in whether or not they are allowed to sign Hayward.

budwom
05-18-2017, 12:55 PM
Absolutely! That's how most became ultra wealthy. Three million here, three million there, starts to add up really fast.

I can relate...I once hung out with a Rockefeller kid who routinely borrowed three bucks from me to buy pizza (this was in 1964)...at least he always paid me back.

Troublemaker
05-18-2017, 12:56 PM
I really think we have to wait and see what happens with the rest of the playoffs. Lebron looks super-human, the Cavs are clicking...it's hard to know what it will take to get past the Cavs until we have an accurate look at how the Cavs perform in this series and, assuming the keep rolling, the next series. If the Cavs wind up winning again, I think a team like Boston stays young and keeps building rather than swing for the fences with George, Butler or others at that level.

Right, and let's say Cleveland sweeps Boston and then GSW beats Cleveland easily. Do any contenders really want to push the "win now" button if GSW is just going to vacuum up NBA titles for the next 2-3 years? Even if you can beat Cleveland, is making the Finals enough to give up Fultz, who could/should be Boston's best player in 4-5 years? BUT, at the same time, isn't it cowardly for contenders to just wait out GSW's dynasty? Shouldn't contenders try to topple the giant?

CrazyNotCrazie
05-18-2017, 12:57 PM
Absolutely! That's how most became ultra wealthy. Three million here, three million there, starts to add up really fast.

Rephrased: If you are sitting on a gain of $2 billion and $3 million might be what stands between you and your goal of a world championship (obviously, nothing is guaranteed), you spend the money. If it was $30 million, they might think a little harder about it. You have to spend money to make money. If companies said "we're doing fine, why spend money on R&D or paying decent salaries to retain our talent" they would not do very well in the long run.

CDu
05-18-2017, 01:02 PM
Rephrased: If you are sitting on a gain of $2 billion and $3 million might be what stands between you and your goal of a world championship (obviously, nothing is guaranteed), you spend the money. If it was $30 million, they might think a little harder about it. You have to spend money to make money. If companies said "we're doing fine, why spend money on R&D or paying decent salaries to retain our talent" they would not do very well in the long run.

The issue isn't their willingness to spend $3 million. It is their ability within the rules to spend it. The cap is there specifically to restrict a team's ability to sign external free agents. The Celtics cannot go over the cap to sign Hayward. They have to have enough cap space available to do the signing.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 01:12 PM
Rephrased: If you are sitting on a gain of $2 billion and $3 million might be what stands between you and your goal of a world championship (obviously, nothing is guaranteed), you spend the money. If it was $30 million, they might think a little harder about it. You have to spend money to make money. If companies said "we're doing fine, why spend money on R&D or paying decent salaries to retain our talent" they would not do very well in the long run.

Yesiree, it's all about marginal ROIC. The party does not have to end at $2 billion.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:14 PM
The issue isn't their willingness to spend $3 million. It is their ability within the rules to spend it. The cap is there specifically to restrict a team's ability to sign external free agents. The Celtics cannot go over the cap to sign Hayward. They have to have enough cap space available to do the signing.

With the countless assets that the Celtics have, they can easily clear space for a max player. They have enough attractive pieces to easily do it. Olynyk will make $4+ next year. Crowder will make nearly 7. Those are two assets that plenty of teams want. And it someone is dumb enough to trade with the Celts for Tyler Zeller ($8M next year), it's a done deal.

The more important question is if anyone wants to get traded to the Celts next year. There are going to be disgruntled players (PG13 and Butler are on mediocre franchises without a clear future, the Clips may blow themselves up, the Suns are a trainwreck with attractive assets, Andre Drummond could ask for a trade, Paul Millsap may want out, Lebron said he loves the passion of the Celts fans - the last one was a joke. Calm down everyone...), but do they want to play in the greatest city in the United States? I sure hope so.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 01:15 PM
The issue isn't their willingness to spend $3 million. It is their ability within the rules to spend it. The cap is there specifically to restrict a team's ability to sign external free agents. The Celtics cannot go over the cap to sign Hayward. They have to have enough cap space available to do the signing.

No doubt! Merely pointing out most billionaires care about $3 million.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:16 PM
No doubt! Merely pointing out most billionaires care about $3 million.

I don't care about $3M.

I mean, if I had $3M I'd probably care about it.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 01:17 PM
do they want to play in the greatest city in the United States?

When did that happen?

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 01:18 PM
I don't care about $3M.

I mean, if I had $3M I'd probably care about it.

Probably?

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:20 PM
When did that happen?

When I arrived in '13. ;)

Happy someone noticed that comment.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 01:22 PM
When I arrived in '13. ;)


Well played!

Billy Dat
05-18-2017, 01:26 PM
Right, and let's say Cleveland sweeps Boston and then GSW beats Cleveland easily. Do any contenders really want to push the "win now" button if GSW is just going to vacuum up NBA titles for the next 2-3 years? Even if you can beat Cleveland, is making the Finals enough to give up Fultz, who could/should be Boston's best player in 4-5 years? BUT, at the same time, isn't it cowardly for contenders to just wait out GSW's dynasty? Shouldn't contenders try to topple the giant?

That's is always the $113MM dollar question (current NBA cap), and why it's fun to prognosticate.

When we talk about Boston, we need to start with what they plan to do with Thomas who next year, in the last year of his contract, is set to make...$6MM...unbelievable. Next year is also a contract year for Bradley, and many of the other young bucks are coming due right after (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston_celtics/)

What the heck do you do about Thomas, their hugely popular and productive young star who averages 30 and gets exploited on defense? What happens to the identity of the team if he's gone? What is the value of Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Olynyk, Jerebko, Amir Johnson...these guys are all up for new contracts this summer or next.

Cleveland has its core of LBJ, Kyrie, Love, Thompson, Shumpert and JR Smith locked up for the next 2-3 years.

Golden State has Curry coming off a $12MM/year contract (amazing), has to pay him this summer, Durant signed a short deal, etc.

Boston holds a lot of cards, as a paranoid Knicks fan, my biggest fear is that Ainge fleeces us for Porzingis!

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:31 PM
That's is always the $113MM dollar question (current NBA cap), and why it's fun to prognosticate.

When we talk about Boston, we need to start with what they plan to do with Thomas who next year, in the last year of his contract, is set to make...$6MM...unbelievable. Next year is also a contract year for Bradley, and many of the other young bucks are coming due right after (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston_celtics/)

What the heck do you do about Thomas, their hugely popular and productive young star who averages 30 and gets exploited on defense? What happens to the identity of the team if he's gone? What is the value of Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Olynyk, Jerebko, Amir Johnson...these guys are all up for new contracts this summer or next.

Cleveland has its core of LBJ, Kyrie, Love, Thompson, Shumpert and JR Smith locked up for the next 2-3 years.

Golden State has Curry coming off a $12MM/year contract (amazing), has to pay him this summer, Durant signed a short deal, etc.

Boston holds a lot of cards, as a paranoid Knicks fan, my biggest fear is that Ainge fleeces us for Porzingis!

I know. It's my greatest hope in the offseason. ;)

If GSW sweeps, then I think the whole NBA does themselves a massive disservice by not making deals to try to beat them. I don't think any team wants that to happen. They'd rather field another superteam that everyone hates (ie adding Rudy Gobert to the Cavs) instead of watching the GSW win year after year. It's like Duke in 1990; if UNLV murdered Duke in the finals, why would Coach K even try to recruit additional players (Grant Hill) or coach the team to improve? Why not just play dead until the UNLV players graduate?

CDu
05-18-2017, 01:37 PM
With the countless assets that the Celtics have, they can easily clear space for a max player. They have enough attractive pieces to easily do it. Olynyk will make $4+ next year. Crowder will make nearly 7. Those are two assets that plenty of teams want. And it someone is dumb enough to trade with the Celts for Tyler Zeller ($8M next year), it's a done deal.

First, Zeller's contract is not guaranteed as long as he is waived before July 2. So the Celtics don't have to trade him at all, actually. Second, Olynyk is a restricted free agent this summer, so he's not a trade asset for the Celtics. They have the right to match any free agent offer he gets, but that doesn't really help in this situation as they are trying to shed salary. He's going to make a lot more than $4+ million next year - that was just the qualifying offer for him.

If the Celtics don't do any trades (and really, the only tradeable assets they have are Crowder, Bradley, Smart, Thomas, and Brown), decline their team options on Zeller, Jackson, and Mickey, and renounce their Bird's rights to their restricted free agents (Jerebko, Johnson, Olynyk, Young, and Green), they'll have $29 million in cap space. That appears to be JUST short of what they'd need to have to sign Hayward to a max deal. But trading one of Crowder, Bradley, Smart, Thomas, Brown or trading down in the draft would get them there.


The more important question is if anyone wants to get traded to the Celts next year. There are going to be disgruntled players (PG13 and Butler are on mediocre franchises without a clear future, the Clips may blow themselves up, the Suns are a trainwreck with attractive assets, Andre Drummond could ask for a trade, Paul Millsap may want out, Lebron said he loves the passion of the Celts fans - the last one was a joke. Calm down everyone...), but do they want to play in the greatest city in the United States? I sure hope so.

George is, by most accounts, just waiting out his time in order to sign with the Lakers next summer. Butler isn't actually disgruntled. He hasn't ever hinted at wanting to play elsewhere; the rumors around him were related to the organization theoretically wanting to rebuild from scratch (which doesn't appear as though it is going to happen) if the Celtics were willing to trade their two #1 picks and Crowder for him.

I think the Celtics absolutely need to make a trade, though, because (a) they aren't constructed in a way to win a championship with Thomas at PG and (b) they are running out of roster spots for all the picks they have gotten. Stockpiling picks was a great plan, but at some point you have to consolidate those picks into a star or two. Otherwise, you start bleeding out their value. And the Celtics haven't been able to do that consolidation yet. Brown, Rozier, Sullinger, Smart, Hunter, Bradley, Olynyk, Young, etc., have been anywhere from useless to solid role players, and several of them have at various point had trade value (some still do). But Ainge has not pulled the trigger. He really needs to pull the trigger soon, or he's going to be stuck with a good but not great team and no upward mobility. This might be the Celtics' last chance to make a major splash, as Crowder, Bradley, and Smart come off their cheap contracts next summer. Meaning that Boston will either be capped out for the future or they'll be starting over to some degree.

DangerDevil
05-18-2017, 01:42 PM
With the countless assets that the Celtics have, they can easily clear space for a max player. They have enough attractive pieces to easily do it. Olynyk will make $4+ next year. Crowder will make nearly 7. Those are two assets that plenty of teams want. And it someone is dumb enough to trade with the Celts for Tyler Zeller ($8M next year), it's a done deal.

The more important question is if anyone wants to get traded to the Celts next year. There are going to be disgruntled players (PG13 and Butler are on mediocre franchises without a clear future, the Clips may blow themselves up, the Suns are a trainwreck with attractive assets, Andre Drummond could ask for a trade, Paul Millsap may want out, Lebron said he loves the passion of the Celts fans - the last one was a joke. Calm down everyone...), but do they want to play in the greatest city in the United States? I sure hope so.

It actually isn't that easy for the Celtics to clear out that much cap space, that is the whole point of the article that I linked.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Even after making the easy moves, the Celtics still are roughly $3.5m short.

If I am reading the article correctly that means that the Celtics have to let go of some combination of Bradley, Crowder, Olynk, and Rozier. The article guess that Bradley ends up being part of the combo that because he is a free agent followI got next season. To me, losing Bradley would hurt Boston.

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:49 PM
It actually isn't that easy for the Celtics to clear out that much cap space, that is the whole point of the article that I linked.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Even after making the easy moves, the Celtics still are roughly $3.5m short.

If I am reading the article correctly that means that the Celtics have to let go of some combination of Bradley, Crowder, Olynk, and Rozier. The article guess that Bradley ends up being part of the combo that because he is a free agent followI got next season. To me, losing Bradley would hurt Boston.

Ahhhhhhh....this makes a ton of sense. Thanks. Probably should have read that before ;)

IMO, the only untradable asset is Bradley. He costs cents on the dollar as is a great defender and surprisingly good scorer. He could be the third banana offensively on a championship team. I really like Thomas, but understand that his value isn't as strong in the playoffs. I think the Celtics would be willing to part with Thomas after next year. Crowder is a really nice roll player, but he's expensive. Olynyk is a bruiser and adds value, but he'll command a premier soon. And Rozier is solid but really lost in the shuffle.

The Celts have a ton of pieces to work with, and they will. Ainge is too smart and Stevens is too attractive a coach (to play for and looks-wise) to not draw the free-agent interest from some really good players. I mean, this is a team that got the 1-seed in the East AND has the first pick of the draft. Holy Cow. Has anything like this happened before? Also, it helps that one of the key owners of the Celtics is a Duke alum with 2 kids who played for Coach K.

CDu
05-18-2017, 01:49 PM
It actually isn't that easy for the Celtics to clear out that much cap space, that is the whole point of the article that I linked.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Even after making the easy moves, the Celtics still are roughly $3.5m short.

If I am reading the article correctly that means that the Celtics have to let go of some combination of Bradley, Crowder, Olynk, and Rozier. The article guess that Bradley ends up being part of the combo that because he is a free agent followI got next season. To me, losing Bradley would hurt Boston.

They are $3.5 million short assuming they let Olynyk walk. If they retain his rights, his cap hold is over $4 million. So they would be $8 million short if they cling to Olynyk. And that is assuming he doesn't get a bigger offer in free agency this summer.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-18-2017, 01:53 PM
It actually isn't that easy for the Celtics to clear out that much cap space, that is the whole point of the article that I linked.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/7/15225330/breaking-down-lower-101-million-cap-projection-boston-celtics-nba-gordon-hayward-blake-griffin

Even after making the easy moves, the Celtics still are roughly $3.5m short.

If I am reading the article correctly that means that the Celtics have to let go of some combination of Bradley, Crowder, Olynk, and Rozier. The article guess that Bradley ends up being part of the combo that because he is a free agent followI got next season. To me, losing Bradley would hurt Boston.

I have an MBA but cap discussions make my head hurt. All of the trades and other roster moves solely for cap purposes really take the fun out of it for me.

That being said, is there any chance a guy like Hayward pulls a Tom Brady and agrees to accept slightly less money (I think he can somehow manage on $27 million a year) to play for a championship caliber team like Boston?

flyingdutchdevil
05-18-2017, 01:59 PM
I have an MBA but cap discussions make my head hurt. All of the trades and other roster moves solely for cap purposes really take the fun out of it for me.

That being said, is there any chance a guy like Hayward pulls a Tom Brady and agrees to accept slightly less money (I think he can somehow manage on $27 million a year) to play for a championship caliber team like Boston?

Not in the prime of your career. And not when you're endorsement dollars aren't Lebron/Wade/Curry/KD.

The Celtics are by far going to be the most interesting team to follow in the offseason. I'm expecting a superstar trade, Bradley staying put, and Stevens continuing to be a baller. Outside of these three things, I have no idea what to expect.

DangerDevil
05-18-2017, 02:02 PM
Ahhhhhhh...this makes a ton of sense. Thanks. Probably should have read that before ;)

IMO, the only untradable asset is Bradley. He costs cents on the dollar as is a great defender and surprisingly good scorer. He could be the third banana offensively on a championship team. I really like Thomas, but understand that his value isn't as strong in the playoffs. I think the Celtics would be willing to part with Thomas after next year. Crowder is a really nice roll player, but he's expensive. Olynyk is a bruiser and adds value, but he'll command a premier soon. And Rozier is solid but really lost in the shuffle.

The Celts have a ton of pieces to work with, and they will. Ainge is too smart and Stevens is too attractive a coach (to play for and looks-wise) to not draw the free-agent interest from some really good players. I mean, this is a team that got the 1-seed in the East AND has the first pick of the draft. Holy Cow. Has anything like this happened before? Also, it helps that one of the key owners of the Celtics is a Duke alum with 2 kids who played for Coach K.

I agree and think that Ainge and the Celtics will figure it out. I would also add the future additional draft picks to their "attractiveness". In addition to their 1st round picks, they are guaranteed Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick and could end up with Memphis and the LA Clippers 1st round picks in 2019 (those are both protected).

As a Celtics fan I am happy the future looks bright, even if it isn't Tatum I hope a few Blue Devils end up on their roster over the next several years, I wish Ainge would have start the Blue Devil pipeline a few years ago and drafted Mason instead of Olynk.

Billy Dat
05-18-2017, 02:11 PM
I mean, this is a team that got the 1-seed in the East AND has the first pick of the draft. Holy Cow. Has anything like this happened before?

My immediate thought was the Lakers winning the 1982 title and having the #1 pick in the draft that same summer, where they chose James Worthy. In an era of less than stellar front office management, this was more common.

Here's a nice write-up of that transaction, and a few others of its ilk
http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/lopsided-moves-made-champions

Indoor66
05-18-2017, 02:34 PM
No doubt! Merely pointing out most billionaires care about $3 million.

I'll guarantee you that ALL billionaires care about $3,000,000. Caring about things like that is how they got to be billionaires.

Jeffrey
05-18-2017, 03:41 PM
I'll guarantee you that ALL billionaires care about $3,000,000. Caring about things like that is how they got to be billionaires.

Yesiree! The one I spend the most time with owns over 100 different businesses. He can tell you almost everything about all his businesses and demands top level performance from each.

TexHawk
05-18-2017, 03:52 PM
What the heck do you do about Thomas, their hugely popular and productive young star who averages 30 and gets exploited on defense? What happens to the identity of the team if he's gone? What is the value of Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Olynyk, Jerebko, Amir Johnson...these guys are all up for new contracts this summer or next.


IMO it wouldn't be the worst deal ever to give Thomas a max contract next summer. He could (likely) continue to run the team for a couple years while Fultz gets comfortable in the league. By the 2nd half of his deal, he could slide to an "instant offense off the bench" role, maybe 20-25 mpg. Let Fultz/Brown/2018 Brooklyn pick/Hayward(?) run the show from 2019 onward. That's still paying a lot to an old-ish bench player, but 3/4 of your other stars would be on rookie contracts.

Of course, if Fultz doesn't pan out, Brown doesn't progress, etc... It's all moot anyway.

NSDukeFan
05-18-2017, 04:20 PM
Right, and let's say Cleveland sweeps Boston and then GSW beats Cleveland easily. Do any contenders really want to push the "win now" button if GSW is just going to vacuum up NBA titles for the next 2-3 years? Even if you can beat Cleveland, is making the Finals enough to give up Fultz, who could/should be Boston's best player in 4-5 years? BUT, at the same time, isn't it cowardly for contenders to just wait out GSW's dynasty? Shouldn't contenders try to topple the giant?

Contenders should definitely be trying to topple the giant. I would hope the Celtics are doing what they can in the short term to improve as I expect the regular season conference champs would expect they can compete with and beat LeBron. When you are as close as they are (conference championship round), you have to do what you can to compete for titles as anything can happen in a series (Golden State last year) and your window can close before you know it (OKC being a recent example, Clippers another?)

JasonEvans
05-18-2017, 07:38 PM
Not in the prime of your career. And not when you're endorsement dollars aren't Lebron/Wade/Curry/KD.

Hayward on a championship contender in Boston would be a very attractive endorsement option. No, not at the dozens of millions that Curry, Lebron, and KD make, but I bet he could easily find his way to around $8 or $10 mil a year in endorsement income... a heck of a lot more than he will ever get in Utah. In fact, if he signs with Boston for $3 or $4 mil less than Utah, I think he would easily make up the difference in endorsement and other goodwill.

BD80
05-18-2017, 07:40 PM
Hayward ... would easily make up the difference in endorsement and other goodwill.

Like marrying Gisele?

devildeac
05-18-2017, 08:01 PM
Who does the convincing to have young Mr. Bradley keep his name in the draft?


;):o

Furniture
05-19-2017, 06:15 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/865593519523733504

wouldnt that be awesome?

wsb3
05-19-2017, 06:43 PM
Looks like mostly teams in the east interested in JJ. As discussed before if he wants to max out $$$ & why not..it likely means a non contender... The Sixers have been mentioned in a few articles. Young talent & his leadership I could see worse landing spots.

http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2017/05/nba_free_agency_rumors_sixers_to_chase_jj_redick.h tml

kAzE
05-19-2017, 09:52 PM
So DutchDevil... you still think the Celtics have a championship window in the next 2-3 years with Isaiah Thomas as your star and LeBron in his prime? LeBron is every bit as dominant as Jordan, and he's 32. He's going to keep doing this for 3-4 more years.

Given the results of game 1 and game 2 thus far, I don't think trading the #1 pick for George or Butler would take them over the hump. You add another hefty contract instead of a young star who you'd have for 4 years on the cheap. That's worth way more than Paul George for $30 million.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-19-2017, 10:59 PM
Celtics tonight looked like a team needing a #1 pick.

NM Duke Fan
05-20-2017, 10:46 AM
So DutchDevil... you still think the Celtics have a championship window in the next 2-3 years with Isaiah Thomas as your star and LeBron in his prime? LeBron is every bit as dominant as Jordan, and he's 32. He's going to keep doing this for 3-4 more years.

Given the results of game 1 and game 2 thus far, I don't think trading the #1 pick for George or Butler would take them over the hump. You add another hefty contract instead of a young star who you'd have for 4 years on the cheap. That's worth way more than Paul George for $30 million.

Excellent post. Unless LeBron gets injured, or really bored, which I doubt, the window of opportunity is ... not yet! The illusion of that window was just shattered, and the shards are all over the streets of Boston ...

Indoor66
05-20-2017, 11:38 AM
Excellent post. Unless LeBron gets injured, or really bored, which I doubt, the window of opportunity is ... not yet! The illusion of that window was just shattered, and the shards are all over the streets of Boston ...

How dramatic.

kAzE
05-21-2017, 03:45 PM
So for those of you who were dismissing Luke as a potential lottery pick, DraftExpress now has him ranked #16. His stock has continually risen as we get closer to the draft, and I believe there is even a possibility that he could go to the pistons at #12 overall.

The NBA is all about the stars, but outside of the stars, specialists are the next best thing. Luke may be the best shooter in this class, and shooting is the #1 most desirable skill for a specialist in the league.

JasonEvans
05-21-2017, 05:44 PM
So for those of you who were dismissing Luke as a potential lottery pick, DraftExpress now has him ranked #16. His stock has continually risen as we get closer to the draft, and I believe there is even a possibility that he could go to the pistons at #12 overall.

The NBA is all about the stars, but outside of the stars, specialists are the next best thing. Luke may be the best shooter in this class, and shooting is the #1 most desirable skill for a specialist in the league.

In Chad Ford's latest mock, he has Luke going #12 to the Pistons. He says it is a bit of a reach, but he fit really nicely with what they need.

flyingdutchdevil
05-22-2017, 03:47 PM
The NBA values length. That's obvious. But there are three lottery players/mid-first round players whose wingspan equals or is less than their height:

-Dennis Smith (6'3" / 6'3")
-Malik Monk (6'4" / 6'3.5")
-Luke Kennard (6'6" / 6'5.25")

In 2012, the only NBA player with T-Rex Syndrome was JJ Redick: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/05/nba_wingspans_forget_height_basketball_players_win gspans_are_absurd_and.html

Now, 3 first rounders are T-Rexes.

Awesome.

Rich
05-22-2017, 04:15 PM
The NBA values length. That's obvious. But there are three lottery players/mid-first round players whose wingspan equals or is less than their height:

-Dennis Smith (6'3" / 6'3")
-Malik Monk (6'4" / 6'3.5")
-Luke Kennard (6'6" / 6'5.25")

In 2012, the only NBA player with T-Rex Syndrome was JJ Redick: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/05/nba_wingspans_forget_height_basketball_players_win gspans_are_absurd_and.html

Now, 3 first rounders are T-Rexes.

Awesome.

I know he wasn't in the NBA in 2012, but isn't Marshall Plumlee the epitome of T-Rex Syndrome? Got his measurements?

dukelifer
05-22-2017, 04:16 PM
The NBA values length. That's obvious. But there are three lottery players/mid-first round players whose wingspan equals or is less than their height:

-Dennis Smith (6'3" / 6'3")
-Malik Monk (6'4" / 6'3.5")
-Luke Kennard (6'6" / 6'5.25")

In 2012, the only NBA player with T-Rex Syndrome was JJ Redick: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/05/nba_wingspans_forget_height_basketball_players_win gspans_are_absurd_and.html

Now, 3 first rounders are T-Rexes.

Awesome.

I am not sure about the others as I do not think they were officially measured at the combine- but Kennard is 6' 4.5" without shoes- so I think the T-Rex comparison is only fair when like the dinosaurs the players are sans shoes- hence Kennard is not quite a Rex.

ChillinDuke
05-22-2017, 04:20 PM
I am not sure about the others as I do not think they were officially measured at the combine- but Kennard is 6' 4.5" without shoes- so I think the T-Rex comparison is only fair when like the dinosaurs the players are sans shoes- hence Kennard is not quite a Rex.

Or when the players are wearing boxing gloves on their hands.

Or maybe those big foam fingers.

- Chillin

elvis14
05-22-2017, 05:57 PM
Or when the players are wearing boxing gloves on their hands.

Or maybe those big foam fingers.

- Chillin

Or the big white Mickey Mouse Hands!!!

JasonEvans
05-22-2017, 06:24 PM
I know he wasn't in the NBA in 2012, but isn't Marshall Plumlee the epitome of T-Rex Syndrome? Got his measurements?

Draftexpress said that in 2010 when he attended some high school camps at which measurements were taken, Marshall was 6-11.5 in height with a 6-8.5 wingspan.

elvis14
05-22-2017, 06:27 PM
Draftexpress said that in 2010 when he attended some high school camps at which measurements were taken, Marshall was 6-11.5 in height with a 6-8.5 wingspan.

Yeah but he was drafted because he had 9-10.5 heart and hit 100% of this three's at Duke!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv7A3r0a7Ns

Rich
05-22-2017, 08:04 PM
Draftexpress said that in 2010 when he attended some high school camps at which measurements were taken, Marshall was 6-11.5 in height with a 6-8.5 wingspan.

Bing bing bing, we have a winner! Give that man a stuffed T-Rex dinosaur.

BD80
05-22-2017, 08:21 PM
The deadline to withdraw from the draft is the 24th?

Olympic Fan
05-22-2017, 08:34 PM
The deadline to withdraw from the draft is the 24th?

Yes ... I think 11:59 pm.

Still waiting (the ACC at least) on Bradley at UNC, Adel at Louisville, Yurtseven at NC State and Graham at Clemson.

Naturally, the big one of Diallo at Kentucky

BD80
05-22-2017, 08:36 PM
Yes ... I think 11:59 pm. ...

Do they still use fax machines?

tbyers11
05-23-2017, 10:13 AM
Yes ... I think 11:59 pm.

Still waiting (the ACC at least) on Bradley at UNC, Adel at Louisville, Yurtseven at NC State and Graham at Clemson.

Naturally, the big one of Diallo at Kentucky

Deng Adel is coming back to Louisville (http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/deng-adel-withdraws-from-nba-draft-and-will-return-to-louisville-for-junior-year/). Big news for the Cards.

JasonEvans
05-23-2017, 12:21 PM
A UNC blog (http://www.tarheelblog.com/2017/5/21/15671408/tony-bradley-nba-draft-north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball-recruiting-zion-williamson) makes the argument that Tony Bradley leaving would be a good thing for Carolina and says it could open the way to Zion Williamson picking the Heels.


If we’re being truthful, Bradley staying in the draft would eliminate the strange and very much false notion that Roy Williams holds his players back and tries to keep them as long as he can. It really shouldn’t be something that needs disproving, but given that the program hasn’t had a one-and-done player in 10 years it’s become a very common bargaining chip for other players.

The fact of the matter is this: at worst Tony Bradley becoming the first one-and-done in 10 years will provide Roy Williams with the ultimate bargaining chip to convince a big time recruit to attend UNC. Gone would be the days where the likes of Kentucky and Duke can say that players are “handcuffed” and forced to stay in Chapel Hill.

-Jason "yup, losing Tony Bradley will instantly solve all your recruiting woes... works for me ;) " Evans

English
05-23-2017, 01:49 PM
A UNC blog (http://www.tarheelblog.com/2017/5/21/15671408/tony-bradley-nba-draft-north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball-recruiting-zion-williamson) makes the argument that Tony Bradley leaving would be a good thing for Carolina and says it could open the way to Zion Williamson picking the Heels.



-Jason "yup, losing Tony Bradley will instantly solve all your recruiting woes... works for me ;) " Evans

One OAD in 10 years: The ULTIMATE Bargaining Chip!

Of course, we all know Roy doesn't recruit OADs because he values education, individual growth & development, and team concepts too much for that.

dukelifer
05-23-2017, 01:52 PM
A UNC blog (http://www.tarheelblog.com/2017/5/21/15671408/tony-bradley-nba-draft-north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball-recruiting-zion-williamson) makes the argument that Tony Bradley leaving would be a good thing for Carolina and says it could open the way to Zion Williamson picking the Heels.



-Jason "yup, losing Tony Bradley will instantly solve all your recruiting woes... works for me ;) " Evans

Kid has offers from everyone it seems- and the NCAA may have something to say about the Heels by the time he needs to sign.

elvis14
05-23-2017, 01:55 PM
A UNC blog (http://www.tarheelblog.com/2017/5/21/15671408/tony-bradley-nba-draft-north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball-recruiting-zion-williamson) makes the argument that Tony Bradley leaving would be a good thing for Carolina and says it could open the way to Zion Williamson picking the Heels.



-Jason "yup, losing Tony Bradley will instantly solve all your recruiting woes... works for me ;) " Evans

I actually agree that having Bradley leave may help the Cheaters long term. What I don't see is how this disproves the notion that Roy is holding his players back. Last year didn't they have the highest ranked Sr.'s and Jr's in the country? The hope is that Bradley goes pro, killing them for next year. Then the NCAA drops the hammer which nullifies any long term positive effects. 9F [redacted] those cheating [redacted]

Olympic Fan
05-23-2017, 02:10 PM
Look, every Carolina fan I knew was sure that UNC was going to get Kevin Knox.

Now they believe they might beat Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and South Carolina (lot of pressure on the kid to stay in-state) for Zion Williamson if Bradley goes pro and proves that Roy can coach OADs?

To me, this sounds like serious rationalization for the potential loss of a guy who gives them a chance to be decent next season.

Bradley ain't going to change the perception of Roy's handlings of one-and-done. If anything, he reinforces the perception that Roy holds back one-and-done talent -- Bradley averaged just 14 minutes a game last season -- very similar to what Roy did to try and keep Marvin Williams, Ed Davis and James Michael McAdoo beyond their first years.

Of course, the joker in the entire argument is the pending NCAA penalties, which should be announced next fall. Even if Roy's OAD reputation were magically restored, any NCAA penalties would kill recruiting for as long as they last.

For UNC, he better come back. With him, Berry and Pinson, UNC has a chance to be pretty good next year ... but without him, UNC will be playing nothing but three-star and four-star freshmen in the post. Not a recipe for success ...

CrazyNotCrazie
05-23-2017, 02:50 PM
Look, every Carolina fan I knew was sure that UNC was going to get Kevin Knox.

Now they believe they might beat Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and South Carolina (lot of pressure on the kid to stay in-state) for Zion Williamson if Bradley goes pro and proves that Roy can coach OADs?

To me, this sounds like serious rationalization for the potential loss of a guy who gives them a chance to be decent next season.

Bradley ain't going to change the perception of Roy's handlings of one-and-done. If anything, he reinforces the perception that Roy holds back one-and-done talent -- Bradley averaged just 14 minutes a game last season -- very similar to what Roy did to try and keep Marvin Williams, Ed Davis and James Michael McAdoo beyond their first years.

Of course, the joker in the entire argument is the pending NCAA penalties, which should be announced next fall. Even if Roy's OAD reputation were magically restored, any NCAA penalties would kill recruiting for as long as they last.

For UNC, he better come back. With him, Berry and Pinson, UNC has a chance to be pretty good next year ... but without him, UNC will be playing nothing but three-star and four-star freshmen in the post. Not a recipe for success ...

I know we all think Roy is simultaneously an idiot and an evil genius, but I really don't think that Roy minimized Bradley's minutes last year to make sure he was back for the coming season. As proven by the end result, UNC had a championship caliber team. That is the ultimate goal. Why risk a championship in the current year to potentially enhance the possibility of Bradley coming back? And I emphasize potentially - given the mixed up way in which the NBA draft depends on potential over demonstrated talent, Bradley's NBA hopes might have actually been better served by limiting his playing time so any weaknesses would be less exposed.

The Carolina system since Dean started coaching there has always been that upperclassmen get preferential treatment. There are exceptions, but that is the rule. Carolina had two talented senior big men, so they were going to get the bulk of the PT. Yes, perhaps Bradley could have had more of the minutes allocated to Luke Maye, but Hicks and Meeks were not going to lose a lot of minutes to him.

If you want to argue that the lack of OADs at Carolina demonstrates that Roy doesn't do a good job preparing players to be drafted and succeed in the NBA, that is a very different argument that I can get behind. But arguing that he purposely limits playing time and holds players back doesn't work for me. I dislike Carolina as much as the next Duke alum, and I love poking fun at them, but conspiracy theories like this really just lower us to their level.

Olympic Fan
05-23-2017, 03:03 PM
I know we all think Roy is simultaneously an idiot and an evil genius, but I really don't think that Roy minimized Bradley's minutes last year to make sure he was back for the coming season. As proven by the end result, UNC had a championship caliber team. That is the ultimate goal. Why risk a championship in the current year to potentially enhance the possibility of Bradley coming back? And I emphasize potentially - given the mixed up way in which the NBA draft depends on potential over demonstrated talent, Bradley's NBA hopes might have actually been better served by limiting his playing time so any weaknesses would be less exposed.

The Carolina system since Dean started coaching there has always been that upperclassmen get preferential treatment. There are exceptions, but that is the rule. Carolina had two talented senior big men, so they were going to get the bulk of the PT. Yes, perhaps Bradley could have had more of the minutes allocated to Luke Maye, but Hicks and Meeks were not going to lose a lot of minutes to him.

If you want to argue that the lack of OADs at Carolina demonstrates that Roy doesn't do a good job preparing players to be drafted and succeed in the NBA, that is a very different argument that I can get behind. But arguing that he purposely limits playing time and holds players back doesn't work for me. I dislike Carolina as much as the next Duke alum, and I love poking fun at them, but conspiracy theories like this really just lower us to their level.


It's a matter of perspective ...

Look two Duke five-stars got limited minutes last season -- Giles averaged 11.5 minutes ... Bolden just 6.5 minutes.

Was K holding them back?

You might argue that in a vacuum of one year. But look at K's track record over the decade and he puts more top prospects in the draft as freshman than anybody (his rate of top 10 RSCI prospects going pro after one year is better than Calipari, who has more top 10 prospects). This past year was an aberration, caused by injuries. Heck, even this year, he sent both of his top 10 prospects (plis No. 14 Frank Jackson) straight to the draft.

I can see where you can argue that Bradley played what he should have played (although I know coaches and pro scouts who disagree). But over the last 10-12 years, Roy's OAD prospects have CONSISTENTLY played less minutes than you might expect. That's one reason that he has the lowest OAD rate of any major program -- and it's not even close, his top 10 prep prospects are eight times more likely to stay for a second year than a Kentucky, Duke or Kansas top 10 recruit.

You can also argue that it's the "UNC system" rather than a specific desire by Roy to hold his talented kids back and keep them for two and even three years. But what does the reason matter if UNC's top 10 recruits -- the prime 1-and-done candidates -- are consistently playing less than their compatriots in Lexington, Durham, Lawrence and everywhere else?

You think the kids on the recruiting trail don't notice that?

Olympic Fan
05-23-2017, 04:34 PM
ESPN has an updated ranking of NBA draft prospects (not a mock draft ... just a ranking of the available talents)

Duke guys are No. 4 Jayson Tatum; No. 12 Harry Giles; No. 14 Luke Kennard and No. 28 Frank Jackson.

Other notable guys -- Kentucky Ham Diallo at No. 27 .. UNC's Justin Jackson, down to No. 25.

And UNC's Tony Bradley at No. 22.

Jeffrey
05-23-2017, 05:55 PM
ESPN has an updated ranking of NBA draft prospects (not a mock draft ... just a ranking of the available talents)

Duke guys are No. 4 Jayson Tatum; No. 12 Harry Giles; No. 14 Luke Kennard and No. 28 Frank Johnson



Is No. 28 Frank Jackson?

gwlaw99
05-23-2017, 06:28 PM
ESPN has an updated ranking of NBA draft prospects (not a mock draft ... just a ranking of the available talents)

Duke guys are No. 4 Jayson Tatum; No. 12 Harry Giles; No. 14 Luke Kennard and No. 28 Frank Johnson

Other notable guys -- Kentucky Ham Diallo at No. 27 .. UNC's Justin Jackson, down to No. 25.

And UNC's Tony Bradley at No. 22.

Is this based on any new information or just Chad Ford's guess.

NM Duke Fan
05-23-2017, 06:34 PM
In-depth article on the choices Boston has in this draft, start a dynasty? Blow the opportunity?

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-options-at-no-1-decision-could-start-dynasty-or-blow-opportunity/

Duke95
05-23-2017, 07:22 PM
Not sure if this has been posted, but Bleacher Report has Harry Giles at #8 to the Knicks.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2711252-nba-mock-draft-2017-1st-round-projections-and-predictions-for-fringe-prospects

Then again, they don't have Kennard or Jackson in there, both of whom I expect will go in the 1st round.

JNort
05-23-2017, 08:46 PM
Really hoping the Hornets get Frank Jackson to back up Kemba. We need another scoring guard and Frank would get mins right away and play a similar style to Kemba

devilsince1977
05-23-2017, 09:21 PM
The Vertical has Jason going 4 to Phoenix, Luke 16 to Chicago, Harry going 28 to the Lakers and Frank out of the 1st round. So Harry is anywhere from the 8th pick to the 28th pick. He must have the NBA GM's pulling their hair out.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/vertical-mock-draft-version-3-0-204544892.html

Furniture
05-24-2017, 12:55 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/ComplexSports/status/867073705096212480/video/1
goodness gracious!!

jv001
05-24-2017, 01:57 AM
Really hoping the Hornets get Frank Jackson to back up Kemba. We need another scoring guard and Frank would get mins right away and play a similar style to Kemba

That would be great, but Jordan probably will not take a Duke guy. He's the main reason I don't follow the Hornets like I should. Oh for the good ole days of the Carolina Cougars. :cool: GoDuke!

elvis14
05-24-2017, 08:37 AM
That would be great, but Jordan probably will not take a Duke guy. He's the main reason I don't follow the Hornets like I should. Oh for the good ole days of the Carolina Cougars. :cool: GoDuke!

I really don't want Duke players playing for Jordan. He's not good as his job and it filters down.

flyingdutchdevil
05-24-2017, 09:06 AM
That would be great, but Jordan probably will not take a Duke guy. He's the main reason I don't follow the Hornets like I should. Oh for the good ole days of the Carolina Cougars. :cool: GoDuke!

Gerald Henderson.

tbyers11
05-24-2017, 09:25 AM
Tony Bradley staying in the NBA draft according to Gary Parrish (https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/867367789283205121).

Take it with a grain of salt as he said he Frank Jackson would be back at Duke.

However, my intuition is that it will be made official soon

sagegrouse
05-24-2017, 09:26 AM
Tony Bradley staying in the NBA draft according to Gary Parrish (https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/867367789283205121).

Take it with a grain of salt as he said he Frank Jackson would be back at Duke.

However, my intuition is that it will be made official soon

Well, isn't today the day?

UrinalCake
05-24-2017, 09:38 AM
If you want to argue that the lack of OADs at Carolina demonstrates that Roy doesn't do a good job preparing players to be drafted and succeed in the NBA, that is a very different argument that I can get behind. But arguing that he purposely limits playing time and holds players back doesn't work for me. I dislike Carolina as much as the next Duke alum, and I love poking fun at them, but conspiracy theories like this really just lower us to their level.

Agree that I don't think he limits playing time in order to prevent players from leaving. I do think however that his style of play is very different from the NBA and that is a big reason why his players stay longer. We saw it last year when Justin Jackson went to the combine and NBA scouts directly stated that he was being held back by UNC's style of play. We saw it with JP Tokoto who chose to leave knowing he would be undrafted because he felt that he would develop his shot more working on his own than at UNC. And this year Bradley had some comments that he thinks he can do more than he was allowed to do at UNC, such as shoot from outside and be more of a face up 4.

English
05-24-2017, 09:49 AM
Tony Bradley staying in the NBA draft according to Gary Parrish (https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/867367789283205121).

Take it with a grain of salt as he said he Frank Jackson would be back at Duke.

However, my intuition is that it will be made official soon

Nothing official, but Jeff Goodman has doubled down on his prognostication of Bradley staying in the draft, per his Twitter feed last night.

English
05-24-2017, 09:53 AM
Really hoping the Hornets get Frank Jackson to back up Kemba. We need another scoring guard and Frank would get mins right away and play a similar style to Kemba

Frank Jackson to the Hornets is a wild reach at No. 11, so I assume you mean at pick No. 41 (11th pick of the 2nd rd). I love Duke guys on the hometown team as much as anyone (almost stopped following them completely when MJ wrecked the Winslow pick at No. 9 last year), but I'm hoping Frank goes at the end of Rd1 or in the top-3 picks of Rd2.

Should Frank fall all the way to No. 41, I'd happily root for him in Buzz City, but would always feel like he made a mistake coming out this year.

luvdahops
05-24-2017, 10:02 AM
Agree that I don't think he limits playing time in order to prevent players from leaving. I do think however that his style of play is very different from the NBA and that is a big reason why his players stay longer. We saw it last year when Justin Jackson went to the combine and NBA scouts directly stated that he was being held back by UNC's style of play. We saw it with JP Tokoto who chose to leave knowing he would be undrafted because he felt that he would develop his shot more working on his own than at UNC. And this year Bradley had some comments that he thinks he can do more than he was allowed to do at UNC, such as shoot from outside and be more of a face up 4.

Spot on. The Carolina system was once viewed as excellent preparation for the NBA. That is no longer the case with the way the pro game has evolved. In addition to the examples you cite, Duke's more open and flexible style of play was a critical factor in landing Brandon Ingram.

Matches
05-24-2017, 10:08 AM
Gerald Henderson.

Yea the "Hornets always draft UNC guys and never take Duke players" thing is pretty outdated. I don't recall the Hornets/ Bobcats drafting a UNC guy in the 1st round since Brendan Wright (who they immediately traded). The current roster has one UNC guy (Marvin Williams) and one Duke guy (MP1), and both Henderson and Josh McRoberts played significant roles for the team in recent seasons.

The Hornets did screw up taking Kaminsky over Winslow but even that isn't an egregious error, as Kaminsky has turned into a useful rotation player.

I think everyone just remembers that year they took both Felton and May - clearly not their finest moment, but Jordan didn't even own the team then.

flyingdutchdevil
05-24-2017, 10:21 AM
Yea the "Hornets always draft UNC guys and never take Duke players" thing is pretty outdated. I don't recall the Hornets/ Bobcats drafting a UNC guy in the 1st round since Brendan Wright (who they immediately traded). The current roster has one UNC guy (Marvin Williams) and one Duke guy (MP1), and both Henderson and Josh McRoberts played significant roles for the team in recent seasons.

The Hornets did screw up taking Kaminsky over Winslow but even that isn't an egregious error, as Kaminsky has turned into a useful rotation player.

I think everyone just remembers that year they took both Felton and May - clearly not their finest moment, but Jordan didn't even own the team then.

Highly debatable. Winslow is clearly the better defender and has the higher ceiling, but the jury is still out on whether he can shoot. For his career, Justise is shooting 26% from 3pt land. Unfortunately, shooting 67% from the FT line doesn't help either.

Winslow is a baaaaaaaaaaaad shooter right now. Significantly worse than MKG's first two years from the FG and FT line. That's terrible.

Winslow will have a solid career in the NBA. But if he doesn't improve his shooting drastically, he'll always be a fringe player.

Matches
05-24-2017, 10:26 AM
Highly debatable. Winslow is clearly the better defender and has the higher ceiling, but the jury is still out on whether he can shoot. For his career, Justise is shooting 26% from 3pt land. Unfortunately, shooting 67% from the FT line doesn't help either.

Winslow is a baaaaaaaaaaaad shooter right now. Significantly worse than MKG's first two years from the FG and FT line. That's terrible.



I don't disagree. Was bummed at the time because I love Winslow and thought Kaminsky would be a bust. Winslow's skill set does overlap quite a bit with MKG though, and Kaminsky has been better than I thought he'd be.

I'm still a believer that Winslow will turn into a really good NBA player, probably better than Kaminsky, but the pick doesn't seem as bad as it did to me at the time.

English
05-24-2017, 10:57 AM
Highly debatable. Winslow is clearly the better defender and has the higher ceiling, but the jury is still out on whether he can shoot. For his career, Justise is shooting 26% from 3pt land. Unfortunately, shooting 67% from the FT line doesn't help either.

Winslow is a baaaaaaaaaaaad shooter right now. Significantly worse than MKG's first two years from the FG and FT line. That's terrible.

Winslow will have a solid career in the NBA. But if he doesn't improve his shooting drastically, he'll always be a fringe player.

You can throw this wrinkle into the debate about whether MJ screwed up the pick...Boston wanted to trade 6 picks (4 first rounders) for No. 9 to get Justise. Frank was already considered a reach at No. 9, so he could've potentially been available at No. 16. Even if he wasn't, was he worth the boatload of picks? I'd argue he wasn't/isn't.

Either way, as a Duke guy and major Winslow fan, I nearly quit my allegiance to the franchise after that boondoggle. At least I would've acknowledged the value of passing on Justise for that haul. But Frank Kaminsky at No. 9? No.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/report-celtics-wanted-to-trade-6-picks-for-hornets-no-9-pick/

https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/celtics-really-wanted-to-trade-up-for-justise-winslow--offered-hornets-six-picks-223512211.html

NM Duke Fan
05-24-2017, 11:05 AM
So apparently Bradley is NC's first one and done since 2007, where do you think he will be drafted?

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/north-carolina-freshman-tony-bradley-decides-to-remain-in-the-2017-nba-draft/

flyingdutchdevil
05-24-2017, 11:43 AM
They don't like Duke players: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/24/nba-mock-draft-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-debate-celtics-lakers

Tatum 6
Giles 19
Kennard 20
Jackson N/A

CDu
05-24-2017, 11:45 AM
So apparently Bradley is NC's first one and done since 2007, where do you think he will be drafted?

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/north-carolina-freshman-tony-bradley-decides-to-remain-in-the-2017-nba-draft/

If so, good. The Heels were long overdue for some less than perfect (for them) news.

WiJoe
05-24-2017, 11:45 AM
They don't like Duke players: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/24/nba-mock-draft-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-debate-celtics-lakers

Tatum 6
Giles 19
Kennard 20
Jackson N/A

I wouldn't worry about what failing SI thinks.

kAzE
05-24-2017, 12:14 PM
They don't like Duke players: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/24/nba-mock-draft-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-debate-celtics-lakers

Tatum 6
Giles 19
Kennard 20
Jackson N/A

At this point, I would actually be surprised if Luke Kennard fell further than 18. I think his range is 12-18, and he probably goes #16 to the Bulls. I would absolutely be ecstatic if the Bucks grabbed him at #17. Giannis needs to be surrounded by more shooting.

Atlanta Duke
05-24-2017, 03:36 PM
They don't like Duke players: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/24/nba-mock-draft-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-debate-celtics-lakers

Tatum 6
Giles 19
Kennard 20
Jackson N/A

Consider the source - Andrew Sharp has shown little affection for Duke and its fans going back to his Grantland days

Rich
05-24-2017, 04:16 PM
They don't like Duke players: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/05/24/nba-mock-draft-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-debate-celtics-lakers

Tatum 6
Giles 19
Kennard 20
Jackson N/A

Fake news and alternative facts...

NashvilleDevil
05-24-2017, 05:06 PM
Consider the source - Andrew Sharp has shown little affection for Duke and its fans going back to his Grantland days

Because he went to Carolina.

Furniture
05-24-2017, 05:12 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/867479666290020354/video/1

just spotted this. He looks great!!!

NM Duke Fan
05-24-2017, 07:18 PM
Former Duke guard Frank Jackson has undergone right foot surgery and is targeting a late July return to the hardwood, according to a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical. Jackson sustained a stress reaction during his freshman season at Duke and reportedly played pain-free through the season, but decided to have the surgery now to begin the rehabilitation process.

Jackson declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman season and surprised many by signing with an agent, forfeiting his right to return to Duke in doing so. His goal in undergoing surgery ahead of the June 22 draft is to be fully prepared for NBA training camp in September and potentially as early as late July, leaving the door open for a return for summer league action.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospect-frank-jackson-has-foot-surgery-eyeing-return-for-training-camp/

cato
05-24-2017, 07:28 PM
Former Duke guard Frank Jackson has undergone right foot surgery and is targeting a late July return to the hardwood, according to a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical. Jackson sustained a stress reaction during his freshman season at Duke and reportedly played pain-free through the season, but decided to have the surgery now to begin the rehabilitation process.

Jackson declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman season and surprised many by signing with an agent, forfeiting his right to return to Duke in doing so. His goal in undergoing surgery ahead of the June 22 draft is to be fully prepared for NBA training camp in September and potentially as early as late July, leaving the door open for a return for summer league action.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospect-frank-jackson-has-foot-surgery-eyeing-return-for-training-camp/

Wha . . . ?

sagegrouse
05-24-2017, 07:36 PM
Former Duke guard Frank Jackson has undergone right foot surgery and is targeting a late July return to the hardwood, according to a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical. Jackson sustained a stress reaction during his freshman season at Duke and reportedly played pain-free through the season, but decided to have the surgery now to begin the rehabilitation process.

Jackson declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman season and surprised many by signing with an agent, forfeiting his right to return to Duke in doing so. His goal in undergoing surgery ahead of the June 22 draft is to be fully prepared for NBA training camp in September and potentially as early as late July, leaving the door open for a return for summer league action.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospect-frank-jackson-has-foot-surgery-eyeing-return-for-training-camp/


Wha . . . ?

Less.... I think I got this. Frank Jackson had a stress fracture, and Chase Jeter, being such a empathetic guy, took the pain from Frank and sidelined himself while he recovered from Frank's injury. In fact, Chase even quietly let out word that he had surgery. A gentleman and a scholar, I would say.

Olympic Fan
05-24-2017, 07:51 PM
Former Duke guard Frank Jackson has undergone right foot surgery and is targeting a late July return to the hardwood, according to a report from Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical. Jackson sustained a stress reaction during his freshman season at Duke and reportedly played pain-free through the season, but decided to have the surgery now to begin the rehabilitation process.

Jackson declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman season and surprised many by signing with an agent, forfeiting his right to return to Duke in doing so. His goal in undergoing surgery ahead of the June 22 draft is to be fully prepared for NBA training camp in September and potentially as early as late July, leaving the door open for a return for summer league action.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-draft-prospect-frank-jackson-has-foot-surgery-eyeing-return-for-training-camp/

Interesting in hindsight ...

Frank opened the season by scoring in double figures in the first eight games (averaging just over 15.0 ppg).

Then he sat out the easy win over Maine with an undisclosed foot injury.

He returned for the next game (vs. Florida) and scored three points. He scored single figures in five straight games (averaging 6.0 ppg) before hitting 15 in the rout of Georgia Tech. He was pretty up and down through the bulk of the season (some very good games, but a lot of nothing ones) until the end, when he hit double figures in seven of the last nine games (averaging almost exactly 15.0 in that stretch).

That sounds like he had a stress fracture (or reaction) show up right before the Maine game. It bothered him for a few weeks, but he learned to manage it -- better and better as the season wore on. It couldn't have been too terrible -- his impressive physical showing at the combine is one of the reasons he stayed in the draft.

PS Wouldn't be shocked to learn that Bolden also had a stress fracture. His preseason foot injury was never explained ... and a stress reaction is tougher for a big man to deal with. We saw Seth Curry play the entire 2013 season with a stress reaction -- and he was still an all-acc level player.

dukelifer
05-24-2017, 07:57 PM
So apparently Bradley is NC's first one and done since 2007, where do you think he will be drafted?

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/north-carolina-freshman-tony-bradley-decides-to-remain-in-the-2017-nba-draft/

Just goes to show that it is tough to win it all without 1 and done talent- just sayin'

mr. synellinden
05-25-2017, 12:38 AM
When is Duke going to look into whether there might be or is a problem with the floor surface? I know injuries are part of basketball and running and jumping are hard on the feet. But the number of broken feet and stress reactions cannot be normal, average or expected. Assuming there is a higher rate of such injuries than could reasonably be expected, isn't the floor surface something that should be evaluated?

gep
05-25-2017, 04:17 AM
And/or shoes? And/or combination of shoes/floor?

sagegrouse
05-25-2017, 08:13 AM
When is Duke going to look into whether there might be or is a problem with the floor surface? I know injuries are part of basketball and running and jumping are hard on the feet. But the number of broken feet and stress reactions cannot be normal, average or expected. Assuming there is a higher rate of such injuries than could reasonably be expected, isn't the floor surface something that should be evaluated?


And/or shoes? And/or combination of shoes/floor?

I agree everything should be checked, but don't the players all get custom-made shoes from Nike?

dukelifer
05-25-2017, 08:49 AM
I agree everything should be checked, but don't the players all get custom-made shoes from Nike?

Or maybe the water in NC- Theo Pinson was out with a foot issue last year and Marcus Paige the year before that. When a big body jumps up and down repeatedly- some fraction of feet and knees are not going to do well due to subtle anomalies in structure. It would be useful to scan the basketball landscape and see who has various injuries and relate it to the brand of shoes they wear. The NCAA should have an interest in reducing injuries of student athletes but the shoe companies would fight it like crazy

Rich
05-25-2017, 09:46 AM
Hamidou Diallo is bypassing 2017 NBA Draft to return to Kentucky

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/5/24/15685848/hamidou-diallo-kentucky-nba-draft-2017

Edit: Just noticed this reported in another thread.

chriso
05-25-2017, 10:08 AM
Or maybe the water in NC- Theo Pinson was out with a foot issue last year and Marcus Paige the year before that. When a big body jumps up and down repeatedly- some fraction of feet and knees are not going to do well due to subtle anomalies in structure. It would be useful to scan the basketball landscape and see who has various injuries and relate it to the brand of shoes they wear. The NCAA should have an interest in reducing injuries of student athletes but the shoe companies would fight it like crazy
They can rename the court Coach K Bouncy Castle. Lot more dunks. :)

Troublemaker
05-25-2017, 10:30 AM
When is Duke going to look into whether there might be or is a problem with the floor surface? I know injuries are part of basketball and running and jumping are hard on the feet. But the number of broken feet and stress reactions cannot be normal, average or expected. Assuming there is a higher rate of such injuries than could reasonably be expected, isn't the floor surface something that should be evaluated?


And/or shoes? And/or combination of shoes/floor?

I'd be surprised if the program hasn't held in-depth discussions about this, no matter what they ultimately concluded (bad luck or not bad luck).

But all of it would fall under the Cone of Silence, so we fans will never know about these discussions (or formal testing of the equipment if it came to that). Meaning we shouldn't assume that they haven't taken place just because we haven't heard about them.

CrazyNotCrazie
05-25-2017, 10:44 AM
When is Duke going to look into whether there might be or is a problem with the floor surface? I know injuries are part of basketball and running and jumping are hard on the feet. But the number of broken feet and stress reactions cannot be normal, average or expected. Assuming there is a higher rate of such injuries than could reasonably be expected, isn't the floor surface something that should be evaluated?

I remember that back in 1997 when they changed the courts, one of the reasons for the change was for exactly this reason - the new surface was supposed to help minimize injuries. If my memory is correct, I think we should ask for our money back...

Owen Meany
05-25-2017, 12:01 PM
I remember that back in 1997 when they changed the courts, one of the reasons for the change was for exactly this reason - the new surface was supposed to help minimize injuries. If my memory is correct, I think we should ask for our money back...

I remember this also, but not enough specifics to mention this when the need for a new floor has been discussed in the past. According to GoDuke.com "The first part of that expansion and improvement project was the installation of a new floor in Cameron Indoor Stadium after the 1996-97 season. The latest advancements in floor technology were utilized to give the Blue Devils one of the finest playing surfaces in the entire country."


I know at the time it was said the floor was state-of-the-art and had special cushioning technology to lessen the impact (and presumably injuries) on players. This point was emphasized (even at that time, Duke had already had a lot of foot injuries with Hurley, Hill, Collins, Brand, etc. in addition to what seemed to be an unusual amount of "high ankle sprains"). Unfortunately, I can not find specifics on the internet, because some may find what I remember to be strange or unlikely. But... IIRC the new floor Cameron received at that time was said to have small springs underneath to help cushion impact for players. It was unique to me and stood out enough (how many springs, how to get consistency across that large of a surface, how to balance the "give" in the floor so its enough but not too much) that I remembered it. But, of course, I can find nothing about it now.


Please note, I am not saying the floor has caused injuries. It is possible that we just remember these injuries more because they have affected so many Duke seasons. The worst, Kyrie Irving, which prevented the real possibility of an undefeated season, actually happened away from Cameron but is often grouped with other injuries. But I do remember the installation of the new floor and its touted sub-flooring.

Atlanta Duke
05-25-2017, 01:54 PM
The Ringer evaluates top draft prospects, including Jayson Tatum and Luke Kennard (with the Luke evaluation including the obligatory racist statement)

The Chris Bosh Honorary Safe Bets
Jayson Tatum, Duke

By March, Tatum had established himself as the Blue Devils’ go-to option through sheer will and the fact that he was a mismatch nightmare for opponents. (Also helping: his refusal to pass the ball to Kennard.)...

The Graduates From the DeAndre Jordan School of Specialists
Luke Kennard, Duke

He also had great court vision, proved a surprisingly effective rebounder, and ended his college career as the most (only?) likable great white Duke player ever.

https://theringer.com/nba-draft-casual-fan-guide-2017-josh-jackson-deaaron-fox-f89ef73bd37c

I have reached the point that the "white Duke player" jabs are an easy way to assess if a writer is too lazy to write something original

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-25-2017, 05:29 PM
I feel like teams that pass on Tatum will want a do over come February or so.

pfrduke
05-25-2017, 05:55 PM
I feel like teams that pass on Tatum will want a do over come February or so.

I think the real question will be whether they'll want a do-over 3 Februaries from now. I think it's not unreasonable to say that Tatum may be the most ready to come in and immediately contribute, but that others' ceilings may mean their long-term contributions are greater.

Olympic Fan
05-25-2017, 07:16 PM
Interesting interview with Magic Johnson about the Lakers plans leading up to the draft.

He said the team is open to almost any moves -- except one: Brandon Ingram is the team's one untouchable.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19461749/magic-johnson-considers-brandon-ingram-untouchable-los-angeles-lakers-offseason

BD80
05-25-2017, 08:03 PM
Interesting interview with Magic Johnson about the Lakers plans leading up to the draft.

He said the team is open to almost any moves -- except one: Brandon Ingram is the team's one untouchable.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19461749/magic-johnson-considers-brandon-ingram-untouchable-los-angeles-lakers-offseason

Probably means they won't draft Tatum.

Furniture
05-26-2017, 12:51 AM
http://www.draftexpress.com/amp/article/harry-giles-nba-pre-draft-workout-and-interview-5955/
Nice interview. With watching.

Furniture
05-26-2017, 04:50 PM
Duke in the NBA @DukeNBA (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA)·1h (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/868185062822600705)




Amile Jefferson worked out for the Timberwolves this week.

drummerdevil
05-26-2017, 05:16 PM
Duke in the NBA @DukeNBA (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA)·1h (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/868185062822600705)




Amile Jefferson worked out for the Timberwolves this week.

Great! Would love to have him!

Dr. Rosenrosen
05-26-2017, 08:18 PM
http://www.draftexpress.com/amp/article/harry-giles-nba-pre-draft-workout-and-interview-5955/
Nice interview. With watching.
Strangely seemed to dodge the question about his year at Duke.

Furniture
05-26-2017, 11:59 PM
Strangely seemed to dodge the question about his year at Duke.

I actually thought the same thing. The answer was a little.....odd.

NM Duke Fan
05-27-2017, 10:33 AM
Jackson, Giles, and Bradley all mentioned, just one viewpoint, time will tell ...

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ten-players-taking-a-big-risk-in-the-nba-draft-but-should-have-stayed-in-college/

brlftz
05-27-2017, 12:27 PM
Strangely seemed to dodge the question about his year at Duke.

Nothing weird there to me. He obviously had a very disappointing year and is just saying that he's moving on from it

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-27-2017, 01:05 PM
Jackson, Giles, and Bradley all mentioned, just one viewpoint, time will tell ...

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ten-players-taking-a-big-risk-in-the-nba-draft-but-should-have-stayed-in-college/

Seems a weird time to post this article. You could post it after the draft. You could post it after rookie seasons. Posting it in the window between declaring and drafting... is it just so you can say "I told you so?"

MarkD83
05-27-2017, 01:25 PM
Jackson, Giles, and Bradley all mentioned, just one viewpoint, time will tell ...

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ten-players-taking-a-big-risk-in-the-nba-draft-but-should-have-stayed-in-college/

The comments about Harry sound as if Harry is not taking a risk at all. Go into the draft now and get the big paycheck or risk showing that your knee injuries will hold you back with a poor sophomore season.

NM Duke Fan
05-27-2017, 01:32 PM
Seems a weird time to post this article. You could post it after the draft. You could post it after rookie seasons. Posting it in the window between declaring and drafting... is it just so you can say "I told you so?"

What the ...? I posted it because I ran into it while looking at sports this AM and I thought it might be of interest to some. As I stated, it is just one opinion, and time will tell. I did NOT state that I agreed with the article in anyway, please note. I don't think Giles made a mistake, and with Jackson his injury and surgery complicates matters. I have no firm opinion as to whether or not he made a mistake. This is a discussion board, and it was posted into a discussion on the draft!

Furniture
05-27-2017, 01:46 PM
Duke in the NBA @DukeNBA (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA)
Amile Jefferson is working out with the Jazz today

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-27-2017, 01:49 PM
What the ...? I posted it because I ran into it while looking at sports this AM and I thought it might be of interest to some. As I stated, it is just one opinion, and time will tell. I did NOT state that I agreed with the article in anyway, please note. I don't think Giles made a mistake, and with Jackson his injury and surgery complicates matters. I have no firm opinion as to whether or not he made a mistake. This is a discussion board, and it was posted into a discussion on the draft!

Oh, I didn't mean you at all. I meant CBS. No connotation to you whatsoever. Apologies.

Furniture
05-27-2017, 01:49 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/868288873390116864/video/1

Furniture
05-27-2017, 09:00 PM
Duke in the NBA @DukeNBA (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA)
Amile Jefferson is working out with the Jazz today

http://www.nba.com/jazz/video/teams/jazz/2017/05/27/1495912940849-aa5138011-1448427

Furniture
05-28-2017, 07:32 PM
http://www.draftexpress.com/dx-pod/2017-05-28_Jonathan_Givony_with_Gary_Parrish.mp3

Jonathon Givony from draft express discusses the draft and gives some positive comments on our Harry.

Says that Harry has taken advantage of the time from March to now and is noticeably more explosive. He thinks that he has a lot of upside.

Topics discussed:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7444&stc=1

Furniture
06-02-2017, 07:33 PM
Duke in the NBA @DukeNBA (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA)



- Amile Jefferson worked out for the Knicks this week.
- Luke Kennard will work out for the Pacers on Monday.6:23 PM · Jun 2, 2017 (https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/870767888852013057)

BigZ
06-03-2017, 11:00 PM
Reports Lakers will NOT draft Ball.

sagegrouse
06-03-2017, 11:25 PM
Reports Lakers will NOT draft Ball.

Hah! Let's see how this develops.