Phase VI: The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament

[Bob Green]

If you expected Duke to be 23-8 heading into the ACCT, please raise your hand. Yep, I didn't expect to see any hands in the air. The 2016-17 regular season is history with Duke finishing fifth in the conference and needing to win four straight games to win the conference championship. This has been a unique season which has seen the team deal with a myriad of issues ranging from player injuries, Grayson Allen suspension and media circus, and Coach K missing seven games due to back surgery.

Unique...Weird...Unprecedented...all germane terms in describing the season.

It is time to put all that in the rear view mirror and focus on competing to win a couple of championships starting with the ACC Championship in Brooklyn, NY.

Health: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly is an apt term to classify the team's current health status.

The good news is Amile Jefferson seems to have overcome his issues or at least has adapted to his situation and has regained the mobility required to effectively operate in the low post. Jefferson has averaged 12 points, 6.6 rebounds and 29.8 minutes over the last five games. I am optimistic Jefferson will be very close to 100 percent in the tournament.

The bad news is Grayson Allen is still not close to 100 percent and has played limited minutes the past few games: 23 at Carolina, 16 against FSU, 0 at Miami, 29 at Syracuse, 28 against Wake Forest. One has to go back to February 15 to find a game where Allen played 30 minutes. For Duke to win the ACC Championship, Allen's health needs to continue to improve. Duke needs the explosive version of Allen on the court. The version capable of driving to the hole and taking jump shots with good lift. I am cautiously optimistic Allen's health will improve.

The ugly news is freshman phenom Harry Giles remains hampered by previous knee surgeries and will never be healthy while at Duke. In fact, at this time, it is unfair to even refer to Giles as a phenom as his play to date has been, and will most likely remain, pedestrian. Over the past five games, Giles has averaged 2.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 10.4 minutes. That's all we can expect to get moving forward.

Rotation: Speaking of freshmen, Frank Jackson has developed into a dynamite player. He is playing with confidence and determination. Jackson teamed with fellow freshman Jayson Tatum give Duke a solid contribution from first year players. While the #1 recruiting class in the nation did not live up to the preseason hype, it is still a strong class. A class a lot of programs would love to have.

Coach K will play an eight player rotation (Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, Jackson, Allen, Giles, Bolden) in the ACC Tournament. My expectation is Giles and Bolden could see a couple minutes more than they have recently due to having to play four games in four days and a ninth player "might" see a situational minute or two on Wednesday or Thursday. If we make it to Friday and the semi-finals, Coach K will revert to his 7+ man rotation.

Any fan out there expecting to see an expanded rotation in the upcoming post season is setting themselves up for disappointment.

Opponents: I'm going on record right here and right now as desiring to face Carolina in the semi-finals on Friday. I know lots of fans desire to see Carolina lose their first game on Thursday but I am not one. The season rubber match on Friday is my desire. We won at home, they won at home, let's settle this thing on a neutral court!

Duke will face the winner of Clemson - N.C. State on Wednesday at approximately 2:30 pm. Win that one and the next opponent is Louisville. Duke is 1-2 against those three teams this season so the team is going to have to beat at least one (Louisville) and perhaps two (Louisville/N.C. State) teams for the first time this season to advance to Friday night and the semi-finals. We beat Clemson 64-62 in Cameron back on February 11th.

The Big Picture: A strong performance in the ACC Tournament will improve our NCAA Tournament seeding. A quick departure from the ACC Tournament results in several additional days of rest prior to the NCAA tournament. A higher seed versus a rested team, which is more important? That is a question each individual fan must answer for themselves but I am confident the coaching staff and team will be playing to win the game each time they step on the court.

It is time to win a CHAMPIONSHIP!

[Rich]

If you expected Duke to be 23-8 heading into the ACCT, please raise your hand. Yep, I didn't expect to see any hands in the air.

I was thinking about this comment and the interesting thing is that if you asked pre-season most would have said "more wins" and if you asked right around the time K announced his surgery most would have said "more losses." It's been some ride, that's for sure...

[Troublemaker]

Opponents: I'm going on record right here and right now as desiring to face Carolina in the semi-finals on Friday. I know lots of fans desire to see Carolina lose their first game on Thursday but I am not one. The season rubber match on Friday is my desire. We won at home, they won at home, let's settle this thing on a neutral court!

Duke will face the winner of Clemson - N.C. State on Wednesday at approximately 2:30 pm. Win that one and the next opponent is Louisville. Duke is 1-2 against those three teams this season so the team is going to have to beat at least one (Louisville) and perhaps two (Louisville/N.C. State) teams for the first time this season to advance to Friday night and the semi-finals. We beat Clemson 64-62 in Cameron back on February 11th.

Nice Phase post, Bob.

WRT desiring a SF matchup with UNC... my thoughts are this:

I am not anywhere close to afraid of the matchup. If it does occur, I would kind of expect Duke to win, frankly.

However, I can't pretend that Duke's path wouldn't be easier if Syracuse or Miami were in the semis instead of UNC.

My first job is to root for Duke, and so I will 9F UNC when they play their quarterfinal. But if the rubber match happens -- and Duke has to win two tough games to even get there -- then bring it on!

[Kedsy]

A quick departure from the ACC Tournament results in several additional days of rest prior to the NCAA tournament. A higher seed versus a rested team, which is more important?

Here are the seasons under Coach K that we failed to make it past the ACC tournament quarterfinals: 1981, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2007, 2013, 2016. Four of those 11 seasons we didn't make the NCAA tournament, and of the remaining 7 seasons we made the Elite Eight once (2013), the Sweet 16 twice (2016, 1987), and flamed out in the NCAAT four times.

Of our 12 Final Four teams, eight played for the ACC championship (six champions) and four made the ACC tournament semifinals (1990, 1991, 1994, 2015).

So, personally, I vote for playing as many ACC tournament games as we can. If we have to lose, I certainly don't want to lose before Friday.

[brevity]

A quick departure from the ACC Tournament results in several additional days of rest prior to the NCAA tournament. A higher seed versus a rested team, which is more important?


Here are the seasons under Coach K that we failed to make it past the ACC tournament quarterfinals: 1981, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2007, 2013, 2016. Four of those 11 seasons we didn't make the NCAA tournament, and of the remaining 7 seasons we made the Elite Eight once (2013), the Sweet 16 twice (2016, 1987), and flamed out in the NCAAT four times.

Of our 12 Final Four teams, eight played for the ACC championship (six champions) and four made the ACC tournament semifinals (1990, 1991, 1994, 2015).

So, personally, I vote for playing as many ACC tournament games as we can. If we have to lose, I certainly don't want to lose before Friday.

It appears you would have the right answer, but I feel like no one is asking the right question: how frequently does Duke play deep in the ACC Tournament and then suffer an early elimination (chalk-wise) in the NCAA Tournament? All the talk I see on DBR about starters getting exhausted and hitting a wall stems from this very concern. If the answer is never, then that would seem to shut up those with that line of thinking. And there is nothing more important than getting sports fans to shut up.

[MarkD83]

I saw a quote from a UNC fan after they lost to UVA that went something like "UNC lost because they were tired after having played on a Saturday and then again on a Monday". Forget the fact that this is the exact 2 day turn around that every team faces each weekend in the NCAAs and also forget that the turn around is worse in the ACC tournament.

The point that I took away is that everyone plays tired in March. Duke players just happen to be used to being tired because of a short rotation, so there is nothing new. So...play as many games as you can in March and April and go to the Outer Banks and sleep after April 5.

[GoB]

Going through UNC on the way to an unexpected ACCT championship would be great (as would of course just winning the thing) but the Devils are set up to face all 4 teams that they didn't beat this year:
If NCS beats Clem Duke gets the Wolfpack Wednesday afternoon. Next up, on Thursday, would be the Cardinals who need to see what they were missing by playing us without Amile.

If the Orange handle Miami and then pull the upset against the Heels Thursday night then they'd be Duke's Semifinals opponent Friday. And if all that comes to pass would it really be all that surprising to see the Hokies in the Finals?

All VT would have to do is (likely) avenge their home loss to Wake, surprise FSU and then either beat Notre Dame or repeat their 2OT effort against cross-state rival UVa. Duke could emerge from the Tourney with wins against all ACC schools and be looking for the Jayhawks to complete a season which, though not undefeated, would at least have no one played that they hadn't beaten.

Someone give me odds!

[Troublemaker]

I'm also looking forward to seeing my man Marques Bolden get some playing time in the QF if we advance that far.

I know it probably won't happen against Clemson / NCSU. I could see Amile going for 35 minutes and Harry for 5 minutes in the 1st game. But if we can get past the first game, then you would have Amile trying to go on back-to-back days, and Louisville is a team that plays 2 traditional bigs all the time. I could definitely see Marques getting 10 or so minutes in that game. Hopefully he impresses and maybe starts to push Harry for that 7th spot in the rotation and as Amile's primary backup in the minds of the coaching staff.

[Lunchab1es]

It appears you would have the right answer, but I feel like no one is asking the right question: how frequently does Duke play deep in the ACC Tournament and then suffer an early elimination (chalk-wise) in the NCAA Tournament? All the talk I see on DBR about starters getting exhausted and hitting a wall stems from this very concern. If the answer is never, then that would seem to shut up those with that line of thinking. And there is nothing more important than getting sports fans to shut up.

I'll bite. I recorded each of our ACC and NCAA tournament from 1986 on. I qualified a "deep run" as reaching the final match (I couldn't find complete results to include appearing in semi finals matchups). Here are the results:
Year...ACC...NCAA
1986 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
1988 Champs...Final Four
1989 Runners Up...Final Four
1991 Runners Up...National Champs
1992 Champs...National Champs
1998 Runners Up...Elite Eight
1999 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
2000 Champs...Sweet 16
2001 Champs...National Champs
2002 Champs...Sweet 16
2003 Champs...Sweet 16
2004 Runners Up...Final Four
2005 Champs...Sweet 16
2006 Champs...Sweet 16
2009 Champs...Sweet 16
2010 Champs...National Champs
2011 Champs...Sweet 16
2014 Runners Up...First Round

So to answer your question, 2014 is the only time we've made it deep into the ACC tournament and subsequently flamed out in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Every other year that we have appeared in the ACC Finals we at least made the Sweet 16; we made it to the Final Four or beyond 50% of the time.

[DukieInBrasil]

Going through UNC on the way to an unexpected ACCT championship would be great (as would of course just winning the thing) but the Devils are set up to face all 4 teams that they didn't beat this year:
If NCS beats Clem Duke gets the Wolfpack Wednesday afternoon. Next up, on Thursday, would be the Cardinals who need to see what they were missing by playing us without Amile.

If the Orange handle Miami and then pull the upset against the Heels Thursday night then they'd be Duke's Semifinals opponent Friday. And if all that comes to pass would it really be all that surprising to see the Hokies in the Finals?

All VT would have to do is (likely) avenge their home loss to Wake, surprise FSU and then either beat Notre Dame or repeat their 2OT effort against cross-state rival UVa. Duke could emerge from the Tourney with wins against all ACC schools and be looking for the Jayhawks to complete a season which, though not undefeated, would at least have no one played that they hadn't beaten.

Someone give me odds!

That is an interesting scenario. I know Indiana was the last to go undefeated for a season, but i wonder who was the most recent team after them to have defeated everyone they played.

[bluedev_92]

I'll bite. I recorded each of our ACC and NCAA tournament from 1986 on. I qualified a "deep run" as reaching the final match (I couldn't find complete results to include appearing in semi finals matchups). Here are the results:
Year...ACC...NCAA
1986 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
1988 Champs...Final Four
1989 Runners Up...Final Four
1991 Runners Up...National Champs
1992 Champs...National Champs
1998 Runners Up...Elite Eight
1999 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
2000 Champs...Sweet 16
2001 Champs...National Champs
2002 Champs...Sweet 16
2003 Champs...Sweet 16
2004 Runners Up...Final Four
2005 Champs...Sweet 16
2006 Champs...Sweet 16
2009 Champs...Sweet 16
2010 Champs...National Champs
2011 Champs...Sweet 16
2014 Runners Up...First Round

So to answer your question, 2014 is the only time we've made it deep into the ACC tournament and subsequently flamed out in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Every other year that we have appeared in the ACC Finals we at least made the Sweet 16; we made it to the Final Four or beyond 50% of the time.

In the four years mentioned in an earlier post that we made it to the ACC semi-finals (90,91,94,2015), we subsequently played in the title match all 4 times & won 2 Natty's. I'll take that!!

[kAzE]

I'd love to win this thing, but 4 games in 4 days will be really tough unless we manage our starters' minutes. I'd be concerned if any of our 6 main guys had to play more than 32 minutes on Wednesday or Thursday. The #1 priority is to leave this tournament with no new injuries. I would take a loss over any new injuries. We're playing really well right now, and still getting better. We need to use these games to continue to get better. The roof is not the ceiling for this team if we can get healthy right now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd love to win this thing, but 4 games in 4 days will be really tough unless we manage our starters' minutes. I'd be concerned if any of our 6 main guys had to play more than 32 minutes on Wednesday or Thursday. The #1 priority is to leave this tournament with no new injuries. I would take a loss over any new injuries. We're playing really well right now, and still getting better. We need to use these games to continue to get better. The roof is not the ceiling for this team if we can get healthy right now.

Very true. Great post.

But we're dealing with Coach K, who is super successful because of his short rotations. If Bolden/Giles average 20+ min combined, that will be huge. I also suspect that Jackson will play 27.5+ min to offset Allen's healing.

Would also love to see a little DeLaurier/Vrank/White/Jeter, but I'm basically dreaming at this point.

[Billy Dat]

My feeling about the ACC tournament is always the same, I want to win every game because it means that there is another Duke game to watch.

[Troublemaker]

I'd love to win this thing, but 4 games in 4 days will be really tough unless we manage our starters' minutes. I'd be concerned if any of our 6 main guys had to play more than 32 minutes on Wednesday or Thursday. The #1 priority is to leave this tournament with no new injuries. I would take a loss over any new injuries. We're playing really well right now, and still getting better. We need to use these games to continue to get better. The roof is not the ceiling for this team if we can get healthy right now.

This is possible. Because of Grayson's injury and the need to not overextend him, we actually got a pretty decent spread for perimeter minutes against UNC: Allen 23, Jones 26, Jackson 32, Kennard 39. Now if Coach could just make sure to sub for Luke a bit more and then also spread the big man minutes so we don't overextend our other banged up player, Amile.

[rtnorthrup]

This tournament is shaping up to be a beast. And not just for Duke. ND gets a double bye and their first game could be against UVa. UNC wins the conference and their first game in the tournament could be against a suddenly dangerous Syracuse team in Brooklyn. Alas, I only care about one path, and that one certainly ain't easy.

I appreciate all of the historical data regarding correlation between ACC tourney performance and NCAA performance. Interesting stuff. And I do think that there is normally a corollary between how well you do in the ACC tourney and how strong your team is at this time of year. I do feel that there is an argument to be made that due to health issues, and quite frankly the incredible depth of great teams in the ACC this year, that this season could be an outlier in terms of correlation.

I hate predicting games, but I honestly cant think of a harder first two games than Clemson--Louisville, based on our health at the moment. Those two teams play brutally aggressive defense.

I could certainly make an intellectually honest argument for resting Grayson in the first game; however, I simply don't see Coach K doing it. Losing is not in K's DNA, and not to say we would necessarily lose the first game without Grayson, but I don't see Coach K fielding a less than 100% team unless Grayson simply cannot physically go. I do think there is a good argument for Giles and Bolden getting a few more minutes early in this tournament, but alas, I tend to agree with Bob in the OP, the rotation probably is what it is right now. I suspect Bolden's injury is a little worse than we realize.

It should be fun to watch.

[BandAlum83]

My feeling about the ACC tournament is always the same, I want to win every game because it means that there is another Duke game to watch.

This!! :)

And the silver lining in losing the double bye? We get to see Blue Devil Basketball Wednesday afternoon!!! YAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!

Go Duke!!!

[BandAlum83]

This is possible. Because of Grayson's injury and the need to not overextend him, we actually got a pretty decent spread for perimeter minutes against UNC: Allen 23, Jones 26, Jackson 32, Kennard 39. Now if Coach could just make sure to sub for Luke a bit more and then also spread the big man minutes so we don't overextend our other banged up player, Amile.

I've never been an elite athlete. At various stages of my life, I've been fairly fit, but never even in division III baseball shape, lol.

But I must ask of those in the know, for an elite (arguably world class) 20 year old athlete, is there a noticeable difference in recovery time or next day performance if I play an additional 6 or 7 minutes today? As an example, reducing Luke from 39 to 32 minutes in a game.

[BandAlum83]

This tournament is shaping up to be a beast. And not just for Duke. ND gets a double bye and their first game could be against UVa. UNC wins the conference and their first game in the tournament could be against a suddenly dangerous Syracuse team in Brooklyn. Alas, I only care about one path, and that one certainly ain't easy.

I appreciate all of the historical data regarding correlation between ACC tourney performance and NCAA performance. Interesting stuff. And I do think that there is normally a corollary between how well you do in the ACC tourney and how strong your team is at this time of year. I do feel that there is an argument to be made that due to health issues, and quite frankly the incredible depth of great teams in the ACC this year, that this season could be an outlier in terms of correlation.

I hate predicting games, but I honestly cant think of a harder first two games than Clemson--Louisville, based on our health at the moment. Those two teams play brutally aggressive defense.

I could certainly make an intellectually honest argument for resting Grayson in the first game; however, I simply don't see Coach K doing it. Losing is not in K's DNA, and not to say we would necessarily lose the first game without Grayson, but I don't see Coach K fielding a less than 100% team unless Grayson simply cannot physically go. I do think there is a good argument for Giles and Bolden getting a few more minutes early in this tournament, but alas, I tend to agree with Bob in the OP, the rotation probably is what it is right now. I suspect Bolden's injury is a little worse than we realize.

It should be fun to watch.

I believe this tournament to be a mini-NCAA tournament. I really see 6 teams, maybe 7, as capable of making it to the elite 8. I see 4 or 5 as capable of making a final 4. I see 3 as capable of making it to the Final.

I would actually easily take a bet (and I don't bet sports) that at least one of the two teams in the ACCT final will make it to the elite eight. I wouldn't hesitate to place that bet if it were possible to find someone to book it.

I would also be willing to place a bet that the ACC will have at least one team in the Final 4

[Kedsy]

Of our 12 Final Four teams, eight played for the ACC championship (six champions) and four made the ACC tournament semifinals (1990, 1991, 1994, 2015).

A slight adjustment to this. In 1991 we only played 2 ACC tournament games, but we had a bye in the first round so we did play in the ACC finals, meaning 9 of our Final Four teams played in the ACC finals and 3 played in the semifinals.


I'll bite. I recorded each of our ACC and NCAA tournament from 1986 on. I qualified a "deep run" as reaching the final match (I couldn't find complete results to include appearing in semi finals matchups). Here are the results:
Year...ACC...NCAA
1986 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
1988 Champs...Final Four
1989 Runners Up...Final Four
1991 Runners Up...National Champs
1992 Champs...National Champs
1998 Runners Up...Elite Eight
1999 Champs...Nat'l Runners Up
2000 Champs...Sweet 16
2001 Champs...National Champs
2002 Champs...Sweet 16
2003 Champs...Sweet 16
2004 Runners Up...Final Four
2005 Champs...Sweet 16
2006 Champs...Sweet 16
2009 Champs...Sweet 16
2010 Champs...National Champs
2011 Champs...Sweet 16
2014 Runners Up...First Round

So to answer your question, 2014 is the only time we've made it deep into the ACC tournament and subsequently flamed out in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Every other year that we have appeared in the ACC Finals we at least made the Sweet 16; we made it to the Final Four or beyond 50% of the time.

To add to this, in 1984 we played in the ACC finals but exited the NCAAT in the first round, joining 2014 as a real bummer.

As far as semifinals, it's a mixed bag. It happened six times (1985, 1990, 1994, 2008, 2012, 2015), with three subsequent Final Four appearances, two second-round exits, and a first-round exit.

[duketaylor]

"who was the most recent team after them to have defeated everyone they played." Well, Gonzaga this year, so far.

[Devils Librarian]

On the ACC Panic Room, Lauren Brownlow reported that in K's press conference he mentioned that if Duke had beaten Carolina that he was going to make a real attempt at winning the ACCT, but since they lost that was not the case. These are not his exact words, just what I remember her reporting. Sounded like the reasoning was based around getting the team healthy for the NCAAT.

[BandAlum83]

On the ACC Panic Room, Lauren Brownlow reported that in K's press conference he mentioned that if Duke had beaten Carolina that he was going to make a real attempt at winning the ACCT, but since they lost that was not the case. These are not his exact words, just what I remember her reporting. Sounded like the reasoning was based around getting the team healthy for the NCAAT.

Can you please provide a link for this? I cannot believe K would, under any circumstances, not make a real attempt at winning any game!

And how would he do this? Play the end of the bench? This is ridiculous to even suggest this.

Who is this Lauren Brownlow? What is the ACC panic room? Is there any credibility to either? What, specifically, did K say? Is she somehow reading super secret messages between the lines?

Is she getting messages from playing K's words in reverse speech.

This seems to be utter swill that shouldn't be posted without and links and support.

[gam7]

On the ACC Panic Room, Lauren Brownlow reported that in K's press conference he mentioned that if Duke had beaten Carolina that he was going to make a real attempt at winning the ACCT, but since they lost that was not the case. These are not his exact words, just what I remember her reporting. Sounded like the reasoning was based around getting the team healthy for the NCAAT.

He did not say anything to this effect in his post-game press conference. http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&id=6007143

[devildeac]

On the ACC Panic Room, Lauren Brownlow reported that in K's press conference he mentioned that if Duke had beaten Carolina that he was going to make a real attempt at winning the ACCT, but since they lost that was not the case. These are not his exact words, just what I remember her reporting. Sounded like the reasoning was based around getting the team healthy for the NCAAT.


Can you please provide a link for this? I cannot believe K would, under any circumstances, not make a real attempt at winning any game!

And how would he do this? Play the end of the bench? This is ridiculous to even suggest this.

Who is this Lauren Brownlow? What is the ACC panic room? Is there any credibility to either? What, specifically, did K say? Is she somehow reading super secret messages between the lines?

Is she getting messages from playing K's words in reverse speech.

This seems to be utter swill that shouldn't be posted without and links and support.

Here might be part of the problem with her-from her bio:

"...in some form or fashion since the fall of 2005, starting as an intern for GoHeels.com."

Strike 2:

"...Then I graduated from UNC-Chapel Hill with a double major in journalism and political science in 2005."


More unc "alternative facts?

And, just think, a few years ago I seem to recall that ol roy made some comment about not liking/caring for the ACCT.

unc hypocrisy knows no boundaries.

I couldn't verify anything of her postulations after spending a few minutes looking on-line. Perhaps some other DBR sleuths could prove/disprove.

[Troublemaker]

Can you please provide a link for this? I cannot believe K would, under any circumstances, not make a real attempt at winning any game!

And how would he do this? Play the end of the bench? This is ridiculous to even suggest this.

Who is this Lauren Brownlow? What is the ACC panic room? Is there any credibility to either? What, specifically, did K say? Is she somehow reading super secret messages between the lines?

Is she getting messages from playing K's words in reverse speech.

This seems to be utter swill that shouldn't be posted without and links and support.

She's a reporter for WRAL. The video is here: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/sportsradio/video/16566446/

The quote is at 3:45 of the video.

HOWEVER, she was stating her own opinion, not Coach K's. (She did reference a K quote from the presser in which he referred to the NCAAT as the most important one. But that's just obvious.)

So Brownlow was misquoted. She did not do the misquoting.

[gam7]

Inspired by devildeac's mention of Devil With the Blue Dress in another thread, I put together my own little hype video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4J_tyrykSc) to get fired up here for the end of the season...

[Edouble]

That is an interesting scenario. I know Indiana was the last to go undefeated for a season, but i wonder who was the most recent team after them to have defeated everyone they played.

Off the top of my head, I know the great 1995-96 Kentucky Wildcats did it.

They had two losses.

One loss to Mississippi State, whom they beat in conference play but lost to in the SEC Championship game.
One loss to UMass with Marcus Camby, whom they lost to in the pre-season, but defeated in the Final Four.

[freshmanjs]

Off the top of my head, I know the great 1995-96 Kentucky Wildcats did it.

They had two losses.

One loss to Mississippi State, whom they beat in conference play but lost to in the SEC Championship game.
One loss to UMass with Marcus Camby, whom they lost to in the pre-season, but defeated in the Final Four.

I think Kentucky also did it in 2012 (Anthony Davis).

[IrishDevil]

She's a reporter for WRAL. The video is here: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/sportsradio/video/16566446/

The quote is at 3:45 of the video.

HOWEVER, she was stating her own opinion, not Coach K's. (She did reference a K quote from the presser in which he referred to the NCAAT as the most important one. But that's just obvious.)

So Brownlow was misquoted. She did not do the misquoting.

I don't even think that's the obvious part of it. In response to a question about the health of the team, K said, "We are getting better and we've just to go to keep going. Try to do a great job up in Brooklyn and then be ready for the big tournament the week after."

Brownlow, and (perhaps therefore) you, take that to be a comment on the relative importance of the two tournaments. Given K's oft-repeated view of the importance of winning championships, in whatever form, I think the truth may be even more obvious - K may simply be referring to the NCAAs as the larger tournament, which, of course, it is.

[Edouble]

Off the top of my head, I know the great 1995-96 Kentucky Wildcats did it.

They had two losses.

One loss to Mississippi State, whom they beat in conference play but lost to in the SEC Championship game.
One loss to UMass with Marcus Camby, whom they lost to in the pre-season, but defeated in the Final Four.

I had to look this one up, as I was not 100% sure... but the 2011-12 Kentucky Wildcats did pretty much the same thing.

Two losses.

One loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Championship game, whom they had defeated earlier in the season.
One loss to Indiana in the regular season, which they avenged in the NCAA Tournament.

I believe they are the most recent team to have beaten everyone that they faced.

[Edouble]

I think Kentucky also did it in 2012 (Anthony Davis).

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on freshmanjs again.

Good call, Fresh! Beat me to it! :rolleyes:

[W&LHoo]

Going through UNC on the way to an unexpected ACCT championship would be great (as would of course just winning the thing) but the Devils are set up to face all 4 teams that they didn't beat this year:
If NCS beats Clem Duke gets the Wolfpack Wednesday afternoon. Next up, on Thursday, would be the Cardinals who need to see what they were missing by playing us without Amile.

If the Orange handle Miami and then pull the upset against the Heels Thursday night then they'd be Duke's Semifinals opponent Friday. And if all that comes to pass would it really be all that surprising to see the Hokies in the Finals?

All VT would have to do is (likely) avenge their home loss to Wake, surprise FSU and then either beat Notre Dame or repeat their 2OT effort against cross-state rival UVa. Duke could emerge from the Tourney with wins against all ACC schools and be looking for the Jayhawks to complete a season which, though not undefeated, would at least have no one played that they hadn't beaten.

Someone give me odds!

VT was more of a post-season threat before they lost Chris Clarke to an ACL tear playing UVA. He led them in rebounds and was a solid scorer, had the second most assists, and was a core part of their offense. They're still a solid team, and have found ways to win without him, but they're not the same team that beat you guys or took UVA to double overtime and won.

[gam7]

VT was more of a post-season threat before they lost Chris Clarke to an ACL tear playing UVA. He led them in rebounds and was a solid scorer, had the second most assists, and was a core part of their offense. They're still a solid team, and have found ways to win without him, but they're not the same team that beat you guys or took UVA to double overtime and won.

The bolded part isn't exactly right. Chris Clarke got hurt in the second half of the double overtime UVA game, so technically, they are the same team that went into overtime and won...

[Saratoga2]

Health: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly is an apt term to classify the team's current health status.

The good news is Amile Jefferson seems to have overcome his issues or at least has adapted to his situation and has regained the mobility required to effectively operate in the low post. Jefferson has averaged 12 points, 6.6 rebounds and 29.8 minutes over the last five games. I am optimistic Jefferson will be very close to 100 percent in the tournament.

The bad news is Grayson Allen is still not close to 100 percent and has played limited minutes the past few games: 23 at Carolina, 16 against FSU, 0 at Miami, 29 at Syracuse, 28 against Wake Forest. One has to go back to February 15 to find a game where Allen played 30 minutes. For Duke to win the ACC Championship, Allen's health needs to continue to improve. Duke needs the explosive version of Allen on the court. The version capable of driving to the hole and taking jump shots with good lift. I am cautiously optimistic Allen's health will improve.

The ugly news is freshman phenom Harry Giles remains hampered by previous knee surgeries and will never be healthy while at Duke. In fact, at this time, it is unfair to even refer to Giles as a phenom as his play to date has been, and will most likely remain, pedestrian. Over the past five games, Giles has averaged 2.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 10.4 minutes. That's all we can expect to get moving forward.



Speaking of the health of this team and only discussing the physical health may be leaving out an important factor. That is the mental state of individuals and the cohesiveness of the team as a whole going into the tournaments. Now I think that Luke, Frank, Amile and Jayson are and have been playing together at a high level and have confidence in themselves and their team mates as well.

Two from our regular rotation have got to feel a lack of confidence. In Matt's case, he is going through a prolonged shooting slump and that has to impact his confidence in shooting the ball. Grayson also while showing some improvement is far from the hard driving kid that plays well and with reckless abandon. I wonder if he can regain that confidence in himself that took us to a national championship. The kid has gone through a lot this year.

Now both Harry and Marques haven't been used much and seemingly haven't developed the chemistry and trust to suddenly become solid contributors. Harry hearing the delightful UNC taunts of over rated has to hurt him and Marques hardly has gotten into the games at all. I am not saying they played well enough to earn those spots but mentally they must feel a little down and out of it at this point.

[W&LHoo]

The bolded part isn't exactly right. Chris Clarke got hurt in the second half of the double overtime UVA game, so technically, they are the same team that went into overtime and won...

You'll note that "took" and "went" are distinct from one another. But your broader point is somewhat fair. VT, without Clarke, still managed to beat UVA in overtime.

[azzefkram]

Two from our regular rotation have got to feel a lack of confidence. In Matt's case, he is going through a prolonged shooting slump and that has to impact his confidence in shooting the ball.

He does look like he could have more confidence in his shot, but the slump is only 4 games. Prior to the Cuse game, Matt was 6/13 from 3 and 3/5 from 2 in February. Heck he was 17/42 from 3 in January and that includes a 1/8 from 3 in the 1st WF game. He did have an ugly December.

[RepoMan]

For Duke to win the ACC Championship, Allen's health needs to continue to improve. Duke needs the explosive version of Allen on the court. The version capable of driving to the hole and taking jump shots with good lift.

This is exactly right. At this point, I really think that is the key for a long run of postseason success. If we get back the Allen who can drive and finish with ferocity, I really like our chances. Without that, it puts too much pressure on Tatum and Kennard. Tatum presses too much when he tries to assume that responsibility, takes some poor shots, and makes some bad decision. Kennard, frankly, does the same. It is not just the scoring that Allen provides, but also the veteran presence and that confident attitude. We can win Championships this year if we have that team.

[Doria]

I don't have much opinion with respect to resting our players, etc. I trust the staff and coaches to manage that as they see fit.

I am, however, really excited to have a chance at multiple teams we have lost to. I'd love to see NCSU or Syracuse (or, I guess, the heels) again, for example, as both of those games I felt we let get away from us, when we should have won them. Virginia Tech, too, though I have no real confidence that we can reach the finals with our depleted team, though stranger things have certainly happened.

This is the best time of year, regardless, though I'm a little sad already for the end of the season. It seems like it just started!

[English]

I don't have much opinion with respect to resting our players, etc. I trust the staff and coaches to manage that as they see fit.

I am, however, really excited to have a chance at multiple teams we have lost to. I'd love to see NCSU or Syracuse (or, I guess, the heels) again, for example, as both of those games I felt we let get away from us, when we should have won them. Virginia Tech, too, though I have no real confidence that we can reach the finals with our depleted team, though stranger things have certainly happened.

This is the best time of year, regardless, though I'm a little sad already for the end of the season. It seems like it just started!

If Duke plays VaTech in the ACCTCG, I'm pretty sure the bigger surprise would be the Hokies making it than the Blue Devils.

[BandAlum83]

She's a reporter for WRAL. The video is here: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/sportsradio/video/16566446/

The quote is at 3:45 of the video.

HOWEVER, she was stating her own opinion, not Coach K's. (She did reference a K quote from the presser in which he referred to the NCAAT as the most important one. But that's just obvious.)

So Brownlow was misquoted. She did not do the misquoting.

She is wholly unimpressive. The entire video had an amateur vibe to it. The DBR podcast is a quantum leap in quality above this!

And wow, the way she paraphrased K? and then gave a "Wow, imagine if Roy said this?"

And "Luke faded the last half of the season." Does she get paid for this?

And do professional broadcasters use the term "pissed" in their work?

[sagegrouse]

She is wholly unimpressive. The entire video had an amateur vibe to it. The DBR podcast is a quantum leap in quality above this!

And wow, the way she paraphrased K? and then gave a "Wow, imagine if Roy said this?"

And "Luke faded the last half of the season." Does she get paid for this?

And do professional broadcasters use the term "pissed" in their work?

Oh, man, is she right on top of her reporting -- NOT!

Kennard in all games: first half averaged 21.0; second half averaged 19.3.

Kennard in ACC games: first half averaged 20.0; second half average 19.8.

I mean, I am surprised Kennard didn't get injured falling off that steep cliff!

[devildeac]

Oh, man, is she right on top of her reporting -- NOT!

Kennard in all games: first half averaged 21.0; second half averaged 19.3.

Kennard in ACC games: first half averaged 20.0; second half average 19.8.

I mean, I am surprised Kennard didn't get injured falling off that steep cliff!

She obviously learned that drivel/logic/reasoning from her time working on goheels.com and during her undergrad journalism degree.

[BandAlum83]

Oh, man, is she right on top of her reporting -- NOT!

Kennard in all games: first half averaged 21.0; second half averaged 19.3.

Kennard in ACC games: first half averaged 20.0; second half average 19.8.

I mean, I am surprised Kennard didn't get injured falling off that steep cliff!

I would imagine as a young "journalist," she has a google alert set up on herself. So for that reason, I will spell out her entire name so she will come to this site and see that, respectfully, she needs to step up her game if she expects to get anywhere.

Do your homework and bring a better product to the table, Lauren Brownlow.

But upon deeper reflection and google search, I see she has been at WRAL for 10 years, so she has probably maxed out her career. Maybe she just doesn't care. It certainly seems Lauren Brownlow just phones it in for a pedestrian paycheck.

The 8 or 9 minutes total I spent there have been enough to know that I certainly won't be going to the WRAL website for news about ACC sports, I have plenty of other more complete, accurate and professional sources.

[Pghdukie]

IMO, Brownlow is a graduate of ESPN under the tutelage of Doug Gottlieb.

[Saratoga2]

The upcoming ACC tournament is a reminder of how this season has come together and where it may lead. The team this year has been developed in part based on three situations, the results of which will play out starting Wednesday.

The first of these three is the situation where we bring in more OADs. The thought being we needed more high level talent to compete for the national championship. We were able to do that with Tatum, Giles, Jackson and Bolden not to mention we also got a fundamentally sound talent in White and a great young athlete in Delaurier. Not only did we get tremendous talent, this year the coaches appeared to have a great pool of experienced players including 3 back from the national championship (Allen, Jefferson and Jones) and two that had played significant minutes in Kennard and Jeter. Vrankovic also looked like serviceable depth. We looked like a loaded and deep team coming into the season and we rightfully thought of as the top team in the country. I think the staff was successful in what they set out to do.

The second situation was the injury bug. NCAA basketball is a high stress game and players put everything into both practice and playing in actual games. Most teams suffer injuries during the season. This one we have been hit more often than is normal and it threw off team development. During the season, by my count, the following players have had at least some injury which has required time off. Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter and White and of course coach K. The most serious of those has impacted the team performance in many games.

The third situation is coach K's tendency to play a short rotation. It had gotten to the point where we are playing 6 (two of those somewhat injured) and one additional player short minutes. Hard to see how this team can move forward with such a short rotation in the coming tournament.

The bottom line is that we are looked upon as a middle of the pack ACC team who must play several games in successive days against increasingly difficult opponents. No double bye for us this year. Clearly, asking a 6 man rotation to stand up to the rigors of the ACC tournament is asking a lot. But we haven't developed other players to the point where they seem to be of much help in this scenario. The only parallel that I can think of is the UCONN team which went through the Big East and finally won the national championship.

With many of the best players from this team probably leaving after this year to be replaced by more OAD's I wonder if we can compete at the highest level or if we have to hope for a season with little or no injury and more player development. I have no answer to this muse.

[DukieInBrasil]

The upcoming ACC tournament is a reminder of how this season has come together and where it may lead. The team this year has been developed in part based on three situations, the results of which will play out starting Wednesday.

The first of these three is the situation where we bring in more OADs. The thought being we needed more high level talent to compete for the national championship. We were able to do that with Tatum, Giles, Jackson and Bolden not to mention we also got a fundamentally sound talent in White and a great young athlete in Delaurier. Not only did we get tremendous talent, this year the coaches appeared to have a great pool of experienced players including 3 back from the national championship (Allen, Jefferson and Jones) and two that had played significant minutes in Kennard and Jeter. Vrankovic also looked like serviceable depth. We looked like a loaded and deep team coming into the season and we rightfully thought of as the top team in the country. I think the staff was successful in what they set out to do.

The second situation was the injury bug. NCAA basketball is a high stress game and players put everything into both practice and playing in actual games. Most teams suffer injuries during the season. This one we have been hit more often than is normal and it threw off team development. During the season, by my count, the following players have had at least some injury which has required time off. Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter and White and of course coach K. The most serious of those has impacted the team performance in many games.

The third situation is coach K's tendency to play a short rotation. It had gotten to the point where we are playing 6 (two of those somewhat injured) and one additional player short minutes. Hard to see how this team can move forward with such a short rotation in the coming tournament.

The bottom line is that we are looked upon as a middle of the pack ACC team who must play several games in successive days against increasingly difficult opponents. No double bye for us this year. Clearly, asking a 6 man rotation to stand up to the rigors of the ACC tournament is asking a lot. But we haven't developed other players to the point where they seem to be of much help in this scenario. The only parallel that I can think of is the UCONN team which went through the Big East and finally won the national championship.

With many of the best players from this team probably leaving after this year to be replaced by more OAD's I wonder if we can compete at the highest level or if we have to hope for a season with little or no injury and more player development. I have no answer to this muse.

Your presentation of the pre-season thoughts and subsequent struggles for this team are well-articulated.
I'm not sure i agree with your OAD pessimism. First, there really is only one guaranteed OAD, Jayson Tatum. I know everyone says Giles is gone, but he may get info at the combine that indicates he'd be better served by another year of tutelage at Duke. Bolden was seen as a OAD, but he hasn't produced much of anything this year, even less than Daniel Orton from UK who did get drafted after 1 year but essentially never did anything in the NBA. Jackson had pre-season OAD buzz and he's been cooking lately, so he might rise to that level by the end of our tournaments. Of course, all of these guys may make my analysis look pedestrian by putting on great performances in the tournaments, but based on what we've seen so far...
I'm actually a bit more concerned about the impact on next year's team by the potential departures of Grayson and Luke. We were expecting Grayson to leave and he probably will, unless he wants to earn a graduate degree and go for another title. Luke was not seen as a guy who would leave after his So. year but after the year he's put on, he might get some middle of the 1st round buzz and leave. Luke leaving would be devastating to next year's team b/c, if Grayson leaves as expected, we would have essentially no backcourt depth. It's possible that Jackson, Luke and Grayson all leave (but that would probably mean we would have Natty #6!!!) giving next year's team 0 minutes of returning backcourt experience, but with a relatively large amount of frontcourt experience. I would trade a 0-minutes backcourt next year for Natty #6, no question!!!
Of course, all of this is speculation and i have no insight into what any of these young'uns are thinking. We could lose both of our next 2 games and get all 6 of the possibly departing guys back, we could win 10 strait games and get none of those 6 guys back, or any combination in between.

[Devils Librarian]

She's a reporter for WRAL. The video is here: http://www.wralsportsfan.com/sportsradio/video/16566446/

The quote is at 3:45 of the video.

HOWEVER, she was stating her own opinion, not Coach K's. (She did reference a K quote from the presser in which he referred to the NCAAT as the most important one. But that's just obvious.)

So Brownlow was misquoted. She did not do the misquoting.

Thanks for looking this up. I must have misheard her since I had the same reaction as the rest of you, that it does NOT sound like K.

[CDu]

UConn also beat everyone they faced in 1999. Unfortunately.

[Saratoga2]

UConn also beat everyone they faced in 1999. Unfortunately.

I thought they had some favorable ref decisions on that one against us. Didn't all our starters foul out?

[kmspeaks]

The upcoming ACC tournament is a reminder of how this season has come together and where it may lead. The team this year has been developed in part based on three situations, the results of which will play out starting Wednesday.

The first of these three is the situation where we bring in more OADs. The thought being we needed more high level talent to compete for the national championship. We were able to do that with Tatum, Giles, Jackson and Bolden not to mention we also got a fundamentally sound talent in White and a great young athlete in Delaurier. Not only did we get tremendous talent, this year the coaches appeared to have a great pool of experienced players including 3 back from the national championship (Allen, Jefferson and Jones) and two that had played significant minutes in Kennard and Jeter. Vrankovic also looked like serviceable depth. We looked like a loaded and deep team coming into the season and we rightfully thought of as the top team in the country. I think the staff was successful in what they set out to do.

The second situation was the injury bug. NCAA basketball is a high stress game and players put everything into both practice and playing in actual games. Most teams suffer injuries during the season. This one we have been hit more often than is normal and it threw off team development. During the season, by my count, the following players have had at least some injury which has required time off. Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter and White and of course coach K. The most serious of those has impacted the team performance in many games.

The third situation is coach K's tendency to play a short rotation. It had gotten to the point where we are playing 6 (two of those somewhat injured) and one additional player short minutes. Hard to see how this team can move forward with such a short rotation in the coming tournament.

The bottom line is that we are looked upon as a middle of the pack ACC team who must play several games in successive days against increasingly difficult opponents. No double bye for us this year. Clearly, asking a 6 man rotation to stand up to the rigors of the ACC tournament is asking a lot. But we haven't developed other players to the point where they seem to be of much help in this scenario. The only parallel that I can think of is the UCONN team which went through the Big East and finally won the national championship.

With many of the best players from this team probably leaving after this year to be replaced by more OAD's I wonder if we can compete at the highest level or if we have to hope for a season with little or no injury and more player development. I have no answer to this muse.

I don't know that the OAD aspect changes how much injuries affected this team, other than the fact that we as fans don't get to see these guys at their best in a Duke uniform if they don't stick around. I think any team, regardless of experience level, that had the amount of injuries Duke did this year would struggle the way we have at times. You expect ankles and little things to happen, but this year was so insane on the health front that I don't know if provides relevant data in looking at OAD's.

[Saratoga2]

Your presentation of the pre-season thoughts and subsequent struggles for this team are well-articulated.
I'm not sure i agree with your OAD pessimism. First, there really is only one guaranteed OAD, Jayson Tatum. I know everyone says Giles is gone, but he may get info at the combine that indicates he'd be better served by another year of tutelage at Duke. Bolden was seen as a OAD, but he hasn't produced much of anything this year, even less than Daniel Orton from UK who did get drafted after 1 year but essentially never did anything in the NBA. Jackson had pre-season OAD buzz and he's been cooking lately, so he might rise to that level by the end of our tournaments. Of course, all of these guys may make my analysis look pedestrian by putting on great performances in the tournaments, but based on what we've seen so far...
I'm actually a bit more concerned about the impact on next year's team by the potential departures of Grayson and Luke. We were expecting Grayson to leave and he probably will, unless he wants to earn a graduate degree and go for another title. Luke was not seen as a guy who would leave after his So. year but after the year he's put on, he might get some middle of the 1st round buzz and leave. Luke leaving would be devastating to next year's team b/c, if Grayson leaves as expected, we would have essentially no backcourt depth. It's possible that Jackson, Luke and Grayson all leave (but that would probably mean we would have Natty #6!!!) giving next year's team 0 minutes of returning backcourt experience, but with a relatively large amount of frontcourt experience. I would trade a 0-minutes backcourt next year for Natty #6, no question!!!
Of course, all of this is speculation and i have no insight into what any of these young'uns are thinking. We could lose both of our next 2 games and get all 6 of the possibly departing guys back, we could win 10 strait games and get none of those 6 guys back, or any combination in between.

I have mainly stayed out of the who stays and who goes discussion because it is so nebulous. I think it is only clear that our seniors and probably Tatum will be gone. Beyond that, it is speculation on our part.

I am interested to see how coach K handles PT in the ACC tournament. It will hint at his goal for the team but he will probably run true to form and keep his best players in the game(s) for big minutes. We shall soon see.

[Kedsy]

During the season, by my count, the following players have had at least some injury which has required time off. Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter and White and of course coach K.

Tatum also missed 8 games with an injury, DeLaurier missed a few games with an injury, Kennard supposedly was in a walking boot earlier in the season, and Obi has missed the entire season. Thus, by my count, the only player on the roster who has not had some sort of injury was Vrankovic. Which is astonishing -- 12 out of 13, plus the head coach.

[Kedsy]

I thought they had some favorable ref decisions on that one against us. Didn't all our starters foul out?

No, that was 2004.

[MaxAMillion]

The upcoming ACC tournament is a reminder of how this season has come together and where it may lead. The team this year has been developed in part based on three situations, the results of which will play out starting Wednesday.

The first of these three is the situation where we bring in more OADs. The thought being we needed more high level talent to compete for the national championship. We were able to do that with Tatum, Giles, Jackson and Bolden not to mention we also got a fundamentally sound talent in White and a great young athlete in Delaurier. Not only did we get tremendous talent, this year the coaches appeared to have a great pool of experienced players including 3 back from the national championship (Allen, Jefferson and Jones) and two that had played significant minutes in Kennard and Jeter. Vrankovic also looked like serviceable depth. We looked like a loaded and deep team coming into the season and we rightfully thought of as the top team in the country. I think the staff was successful in what they set out to do.

The second situation was the injury bug. NCAA basketball is a high stress game and players put everything into both practice and playing in actual games. Most teams suffer injuries during the season. This one we have been hit more often than is normal and it threw off team development. During the season, by my count, the following players have had at least some injury which has required time off. Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter and White and of course coach K. The most serious of those has impacted the team performance in many games.

The third situation is coach K's tendency to play a short rotation. It had gotten to the point where we are playing 6 (two of those somewhat injured) and one additional player short minutes. Hard to see how this team can move forward with such a short rotation in the coming tournament.

The bottom line is that we are looked upon as a middle of the pack ACC team who must play several games in successive days against increasingly difficult opponents. No double bye for us this year. Clearly, asking a 6 man rotation to stand up to the rigors of the ACC tournament is asking a lot. But we haven't developed other players to the point where they seem to be of much help in this scenario. The only parallel that I can think of is the UCONN team which went through the Big East and finally won the national championship.

With many of the best players from this team probably leaving after this year to be replaced by more OAD's I wonder if we can compete at the highest level or if we have to hope for a season with little or no injury and more player development. I have no answer to this muse.

I would go back and look at prior Duke title teams. They had thin benches as well. Cook and Jones basically played ever minute once Suilamon left. Duke had a 6 man bench with fill in minutes from Plumlee and Allen. Schemer and Singler basically played every minute during their title run. Almost every year K works with a 7 man playing roster and yet the complaints about playing time come whenever adversity hits. K will have a short bench for the few years he has left on the sidelines. Duke fans better learn to appreciate every season (short bench and all) because when K leaves, you will have more to worry about than a short bench.

On a separate note, I don't think it helps this team by playing 4 games straight. A loss in the Acc tournament won't bother me at all. I just want Allen healthy for the NCAA tournament. I will take my chances with this team against anyone if they are healthy.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Looking at the tournament and projecting Duke to win 4 games in 4 days seems very daunting. But there are a couple of trends related to the schedule that I think, I hope, points to success this week.

Duke wasn't so good on the road, but they were pretty good on a neutral court
I think a lot of the reasons why people are down on Duke are natural reactions to recent performance. Duke lost 3 of the last 4 games of the season. But those 3 games were on the road and in between was a somewhat encouraging defeat of a very good Florida State team. Duke has a decent road record with signature wins against Notre Dame and Virginia. When Duke has played on a neutral court, they've done well. They played a tight game against Kansas early in the year with Grayson Allen suffering from the first of a series of ankle injuries and without 3 freshmen in the current rotation. They then defeated Penn State and Rhode Island on consecutive days in New York. Later in December, they had a convincing win against a very good Florida team. So they amassed a 4-1 record on a neutral court against potential Sweet 16/Elite 8 competition. Not bad!

Other ACC teams weren't so good on the road, either
Clemson was 2-2 in neutral-court games with consecutive losses to Xavier and Oklahoma and just 3-7 in true road games. NC State was 2-1 in neutral games (all during a 4-day stretch in mid November) and just 2-8 on the road (and I think we all remember one of those wins).

If Duke is able to get past the winner of the Clemson-NC State game, then Louisville awaits. That seems like a daunting challenge, but the Cardinals did not appear to be nearly as strong away from the KFC Yum! Center. Maybe they missed the Colonel's original recipe. They did have impressive road wins against Purdue and a 5-5 overall record on the road, dropping their last 2 road games to UVA and Wake Forest. Aside from Purdue, their away wins were against Grand Canyon, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Boston College, and Syracuse. This looks like a case in which the unbalanced schedule makes the team look stronger than they might otherwise be. When UofL did play good teams on the road, they were a lot more likely to lose.

If Duke does get past Louisville and reaches the semis on Friday night, they will probably face North Carolina. Here again, UNC is a team that was benefiting from a favorable schedule. They had a good 6-5 record on the road, but their wins were against mediocre teams. The Tar Heels had away victories against Hawaii, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, NC State, and Pitt with losses to Indiana, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke, and Virginia. So when UNC played good teams (and Indiana early in the year), they struggled.

Switch out a couple of those road games against VA Tech and Miami for BC and Pitt, and Duke may well look a lot stronger of a team than their resume might indicate. The Blue Devils have some of the most impressive road wins of the year against Virginia and Notre Dame, after all. We saw Duke play very well on the second day of back-to-back games, and so it really wouldn't surprise me to see Duke take down Louisville on Thursday. Then again, it also wouldn't surprise me if Duke loses to either Clemson or NC State. Still, I think the schedule and health have made this team seem less stout than the overall record would indicate.

[Dev11]

She is wholly unimpressive. The entire video had an amateur vibe to it. The DBR podcast is a quantum leap in quality above this!

And wow, the way she paraphrased K? and then gave a "Wow, imagine if Roy said this?"

And "Luke faded the last half of the season." Does she get paid for this?

And do professional broadcasters use the term "pissed" in their work?

I can't speak for my podcast companions, but thank you for the kind words.

I also should add that Brownlow used to host a podcast about Triangle sports with Shawn Krest that I really enjoyed. I believe it ended when she got the full-time radio gig, and that was around the same time the ACC Sports Journal podcast also ended. That void was part of my inspiration to suggest that DBR, or somebody out here in Duke Basketball internet, needed a podcast.

I don't listen to her much anymore because I can't tune into WRAL, but I liked her casual writing style. Sports should be fun.

Speaking of the podcast, we recorded an episode Saturday night but our schedules haven't allowed us to edit it yet. Thanks for your patience.

As for the ACC tournament, I think there's a subtle distinction between Coach K managing the bench to preserve players' health heading into the NCCAAT and the players trying their hardest to win. It's sort of like tanking for draft picks, whereby management doesn't put the best players on the floor for their maximum useful time, but that doesn't mean the players who are getting minutes aren't coached or personally motivated. I'm sure the Duke players want to win every game in front of them, and it's up to K to balance the different goals in play.

[Bob Green]

Didn't all our starters foul out?


No, that was 2004.

Only one starter (Shelden Williams) fouled out in the 2004 National Semi-finals loss to UConn. Two other players, Shavlik Randolph and Nick Horvath, also fouled out basically leaving us with no inside defender against Okafur down the stretch.

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=20040403

[Kedsy]

Only one starter (Shelden Williams) fouled out in the 2004 National Semi-finals loss to UConn. Two other players, Shavlik Randolph and Nick Horvath, also fouled out basically leaving us with no inside defender against Okafur down the stretch.


I know, I was there. I was assuming he meant all our big men, rather than all our starters, which has never happened to Duke in a Final Four.

[Bob Green]

I know, I was there. I was assuming he meant all our big men...

Kedsy, I'm shocked! :D Stats geeks don't assume. :)

[DukieInBrasil]

I would go back and look at prior Duke title teams. They had thin benches as well. Cook and Jones basically played ever minute once Suilamon left. Duke had a 6 man bench with fill in minutes from Plumlee and Allen. Schemer and Singler basically played every minute during their title run. Almost every year K works with a 7 man playing roster and yet the complaints about playing time come whenever adversity hits. K will have a short bench for the few years he has left on the sidelines. Duke fans better learn to appreciate every season (short bench and all) because when K leaves, you will have more to worry about than a short bench.

On a separate note, I don't think it helps this team by playing 4 games straight. A loss in the Acc tournament won't bother me at all. I just want Allen healthy for the NCAA tournament. I will take my chances with this team against anyone if they are healthy.

Grayson started playing more after Sulaimon left. He didn't always play a lot, but he played more than 0 minutes. He blew up the WF game and played lots of great minutes in the NCAAT. In fact, we would not have celebrated Natty #5 without his many more than 0 minutes in the Elite 8, Final 4 and Finals.
That's a new mis-spelling for a Duke player! Scheyer was crafty, not sure i'd call him a schemer though ;-)

[DavidBenAkiva]

Grayson started playing more after Sulaimon left. He didn't always play a lot, but he played more than 0 minutes. He blew up the WF game and played lots of great minutes in the NCAAT. In fact, we would not have celebrated Natty #5 without his many more than 0 minutes in the Elite 8, Final 4 and Finals.
That's a new mis-spelling for a Duke player! Scheyer was crafty, not sure i'd call him a schemer though ;-)

After the ACC Tournament Game against Clemson, it seems to me that Grayson is still the difference for this team between decent and Final Four/Championship quality. With a healthy Grayson Allen cutting to the rim and facilitating other players, this team can take another step. Jackson is looking fantastic, but he is not the distributor at this point in his career that Allen is. When healthy, Allen is able to break his man down off the dribble, penetrate into the lane, and score or find an open player. Duke's offense bogs down a ton if he is just a 3 point shooter. I really do hope the timing and rhythm returns for Allen soon.

[CDu]

After the ACC Tournament Game against Clemson, it seems to me that Grayson is still the difference for this team between decent and Final Four/Championship quality. With a healthy Grayson Allen cutting to the rim and facilitating other players, this team can take another step. Jackson is looking fantastic, but he is not the distributor at this point in his career that Allen is. When healthy, Allen is able to break his man down off the dribble, penetrate into the lane, and score or find an open player. Duke's offense bogs down a ton if he is just a 3 point shooter. I really do hope the timing and rhythm returns for Allen soon.

I am hopeful that - if we can get at least a 3-seed - we can bide our time until Allen is healthy. Because with a healthy Allen, Jackson, Kennard, Tatum, and a surging Jefferson, we should be sble to score with anyone. And Jefferson and Jones are good enough defensively to give us a chance against anyone.

If Allen gets healthy, we become the team that went toe-to-toe with Kansas PLUS Tatum.

[RPS]

After the ACC Tournament Game against Clemson, it seems to me that Grayson is still the difference for this team between decent and Final Four/Championship quality. With a healthy Grayson Allen cutting to the rim and facilitating other players, this team can take another step. Jackson is looking fantastic, but he is not the distributor at this point in his career that Allen is. When healthy, Allen is able to break his man down off the dribble, penetrate into the lane, and score or find an open player. Duke's offense bogs down a ton if he is just a 3 point shooter. I really do hope the timing and rhythm returns for Allen soon.
I think this is exactly correct.

[Indoor66]

After the ACC Tournament Game against Clemson, it seems to me that Grayson is still the difference for this team between decent and Final Four/Championship quality. With a healthy Grayson Allen cutting to the rim and facilitating other players, this team can take another step. Jackson is looking fantastic, but he is not the distributor at this point in his career that Allen is. When healthy, Allen is able to break his man down off the dribble, penetrate into the lane, and score or find an open player. Duke's offense bogs down a ton if he is just a 3 point shooter. I really do hope the timing and rhythm returns for Allen soon.
I agree with you. Grayson is the key. His vision and as an offensive threat he makes everyone else better.

[gam7]

If you expected Duke to be 23-8 heading into the ACCT, please raise your hand. Yep, I didn't expect to see any hands in the air. The 2016-17 regular season is history with Duke finishing fifth in the conference and needing to win four straight games to win the conference championship. This has been a unique season which has seen the team deal with a myriad of issues ranging from player injuries, Grayson Allen suspension and media circus, and Coach K missing seven games due to back surgery.

Unique...Weird...Unprecedented...all germane terms in describing the season.

It is time to put all that in the rear view mirror and focus on competing to win a couple of championships starting with the ACC Championship in Brooklyn, NY.

Health: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly is an apt term to classify the team's current health status.

The good news is Amile Jefferson seems to have overcome his issues or at least has adapted to his situation and has regained the mobility required to effectively operate in the low post. Jefferson has averaged 12 points, 6.6 rebounds and 29.8 minutes over the last five games. I am optimistic Jefferson will be very close to 100 percent in the tournament.

The bad news is Grayson Allen is still not close to 100 percent and has played limited minutes the past few games: 23 at Carolina, 16 against FSU, 0 at Miami, 29 at Syracuse, 28 against Wake Forest. One has to go back to February 15 to find a game where Allen played 30 minutes. For Duke to win the ACC Championship, Allen's health needs to continue to improve. Duke needs the explosive version of Allen on the court. The version capable of driving to the hole and taking jump shots with good lift. I am cautiously optimistic Allen's health will improve.

The ugly news is freshman phenom Harry Giles remains hampered by previous knee surgeries and will never be healthy while at Duke. In fact, at this time, it is unfair to even refer to Giles as a phenom as his play to date has been, and will most likely remain, pedestrian. Over the past five games, Giles has averaged 2.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 10.4 minutes. That's all we can expect to get moving forward.

Rotation: Speaking of freshmen, Frank Jackson has developed into a dynamite player. He is playing with confidence and determination. Jackson teamed with fellow freshman Jayson Tatum give Duke a solid contribution from first year players. While the #1 recruiting class in the nation did not live up to the preseason hype, it is still a strong class. A class a lot of programs would love to have.

Coach K will play an eight player rotation (Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, Jackson, Allen, Giles, Bolden) in the ACC Tournament. My expectation is Giles and Bolden could see a couple minutes more than they have recently due to having to play four games in four days and a ninth player "might" see a situational minute or two on Wednesday or Thursday. If we make it to Friday and the semi-finals, Coach K will revert to his 7+ man rotation.

Any fan out there expecting to see an expanded rotation in the upcoming post season is setting themselves up for disappointment.

Opponents: I'm going on record right here and right now as desiring to face Carolina in the semi-finals on Friday. I know lots of fans desire to see Carolina lose their first game on Thursday but I am not one. The season rubber match on Friday is my desire. We won at home, they won at home, let's settle this thing on a neutral court!

Duke will face the winner of Clemson - N.C. State on Wednesday at approximately 2:30 pm. Win that one and the next opponent is Louisville. Duke is 1-2 against those three teams this season so the team is going to have to beat at least one (Louisville) and perhaps two (Louisville/N.C. State) teams for the first time this season to advance to Friday night and the semi-finals. We beat Clemson 64-62 in Cameron back on February 11th.

The Big Picture: A strong performance in the ACC Tournament will improve our NCAA Tournament seeding. A quick departure from the ACC Tournament results in several additional days of rest prior to the NCAA tournament. A higher seed versus a rested team, which is more important? That is a question each individual fan must answer for themselves but I am confident the coaching staff and team will be playing to win the game each time they step on the court.

It is time to win a CHAMPIONSHIP!

Yeah, I think I'm going to chalk up this Phase as a success...