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Duke12
10-15-2007, 02:02 PM
Any thoughts on the potential for Demarc to improve his free throw shooting this year. I really would like to see him drive and use his body to get fouled but his free throw shooting has been quite suspect with the front rim being a challenge.

kydevil
10-15-2007, 02:12 PM
Any thoughts on the potential for Demarc to improve his free throw shooting this year. I really would like to see him drive and use his body to get fouled but his free throw shooting has been quite suspect with the front rim being a challenge.

I think a call to Rick Barry would do the trick! :D

Clipsfan
10-15-2007, 02:18 PM
Didn't K say that it was a mental issue? I thought that I read somewhere that he shoots a high percentage in practice but struggles in games.

jimsumner
10-15-2007, 06:39 PM
Certainly Nelson's problems at the line don't stem from a lack of practice. He's spent lots of time working on it. Chris Burgess also was pretty good in practice.

If you're going to get the yips on a basketball court, it is likely to be at the foul line. You're incredibly exposed and the other guys can and will give you lots of time to think about it if they think it will work.

Given Nelson's style, the difference between his making 59.3% and 80% could be a lot of points. Keep in mind that Henderson only made 62.7% last season and he's another guy who attacks the hoop. I think a lot of people forget how many clutch freebies Duke missed in close games last season. Make about five more foul shots and that 8-8 becomes 11-5.

Obviously there aren't too many Redicks around but his attitude was so assertive and positive. He wanted to be fouled and when he was his attitude was "you suckers, you just gave me two points. Just gave them away." That's the way to approach it.

Cameron
10-15-2007, 07:16 PM
He can't be any worse this year than what Jason Williams was:(

I never understood how Jason was almost as accurate a three-point shooter from 25 feet with three guys jumping him than he was standing still from 10'.

Indiana 2002...

VaDukie
10-15-2007, 07:21 PM
He can't be any worse this year than what Jason Williams was:(

I never understood how Jason was almost as accurate a three-point shooter from 25 feet with three guys jumping him than he was standing still from 10'.

Indiana 2002...

If Indiana doesn't get away with assaulting Boozer its a moot point.

ACCBBallFan
10-15-2007, 09:28 PM
I think Nelson's poor FT shooting could be the result of expendig too much energy trying to guard the fastest guard, same reason his offense faded as game clock wound on.

With Nolan Smith on board to provide him an occasional rest, I expect Demarcus' charity stripe success to improve.

Cameron
10-15-2007, 09:56 PM
If Indiana doesn't get away with assaulting Boozer its a moot point.

Good point. Senior warrior Matt Christensen tried his best at lawyering the call as the officials cowardly walked off the floor, but to no avail. Actually, for a second there I was afraid he was going to pull a gun:)

Bob Green
10-15-2007, 10:03 PM
He can't be any worse this year than what Jason Williams was:(

I never understood how Jason was almost as accurate a three-point shooter from 25 feet with three guys jumping him than he was standing still from 10'.

Indiana 2002...

Wow! No wonder my FT % was so bad as I always had to shoot from 15'. :D
Seriously, I agree with you that the number of accurate long range gunners who cannot consistently knock down gimmes from the charity stripe is amazing.

cspan37421
10-15-2007, 10:28 PM
Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

Bob Green
10-15-2007, 10:36 PM
Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

You are correct but I would counter that not "having" to jump increases the accuracy of your shot.

Cameron
10-15-2007, 10:57 PM
Wow! No wonder my FT % was so bad as I always had to shoot from 15'.

Lol, thanks for catching that. What a moron. I promise I knew that:)

Like you say, though, Bob, it really is amazing that many three-point specialists are also some of the worst foul shooters. I guess I would have to attribute that to the amount of time long range gunners tend to spend perfecting their three-point strokes rather than practicing such "easy" shots as free-throws. Or so they think...

I agree with some of the posts above, though. Hopefully DeMarcus can get his free-throw shooting percentage somewhere around 75 to 80 percent. Because, as jim eluded to above, this could lead to Nelson averaging a good 4 to 5 points more per game, which would make a HUGE difference on the outcome of close games.

feldspar
10-15-2007, 11:49 PM
Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

Not true. You're absolutely allowed to leave the floor when you shoot a free throw. You just can't cross the plane of the FT line until the ball has struck the rim or backboard.

bdh21
10-15-2007, 11:51 PM
Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

Minor nitpick here: There is no rule stating that a free throw shooter must keep his feet on the ground. Check it out if you'd like:

http://www.ncaa.org/library/rules/2008/2008_m_w_basketball_rules.pdf

The reason you never see free throw shooters jumping is that a set shot is much more accurate than a jump shot for most players in most instances. The reason jump shots predominate in game situations is twofold:
1) A jump provides extra height to shoot over defenders.
2) Jumping helps increase range on longer shots.

Most coaches would agree that you're not permitted to jump on a free throw, but that would be their groundrule, not the referee's.

JBDuke
10-16-2007, 12:07 AM
Not true. You're absolutely allowed to leave the floor when you shoot a free throw. You just can't cross the plane of the FT line until the ball has struck the rim or backboard.

IIRC, Billy McCaffrey left his feet slightly when he shot FTs. He basically shot a mini-jumper.

Karl Beem
10-16-2007, 07:22 AM
Minor nitpick here: There is no rule stating that a free throw shooter must keep his feet on the ground. Check it out if you'd like:

http://www.ncaa.org/library/rules/2008/2008_m_w_basketball_rules.pdf

The reason you never see free throw shooters jumping is that a set shot is much more accurate than a jump shot for most players in most instances. The reason jump shots predominate in game situations is twofold:
1) A jump provides extra height to shoot over defenders.
2) Jumping helps increase range on longer shots.

Most coaches would agree that you're not permitted to jump on a free throw, but that would be their groundrule, not the referee's.

I believe you're no longer allowed to cross the line, or at least you can't dunk. It's the Chamberlain rule. His freshman year, Wilt dunked his FTs.

jimsumner
10-16-2007, 07:43 AM
Showing my age here but the great Hal Greer used to shoot a modest jump shot on foul shots and did quite well.

gw67
10-16-2007, 07:51 AM
As a freshman, Nelson had a lot of movement in his shooting motion and he shot 53%. He improved his shooting technique as a soph and shot 65%. Last year he regressed to 59% although his technique appeared to be fine. It appears to me that he is not an above average shooter and the mid-sixties might be an upper bounds for him.

The Devils were not a good free throw shooting team last year (69%). Scheyer at 85% and Paulus at 75% were easily our best from the free throw line. Nelson, Henderson, McClure and Thomas were at 63% or below. Hopefully they improve a bit and the freshmen are good shooters.

gw67

throatybeard
10-16-2007, 08:33 AM
You see a few of the smaller guards in WBB jump shoot FTs.

Cameron
10-16-2007, 09:41 AM
What is King Taylor's free-throw shooting like? I'm way too lazy to look up his high school percentages, so, please, someone enlighten me with good news:)

With how good a shot he is, though, I wouldn't expect there to be a Jason Williams-like flaw in it.

grossbus
10-16-2007, 10:14 AM
his shot is too flat. he tends to hit the front of the rim.

he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game.

i think you will be able to gauge how the season is by how many minutes nelson is playing. if he is playing more, we won't be doing so well.

OldPhiKap
10-16-2007, 11:15 AM
his shot is too flat. he tends to hit the front of the rim.

he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game.

i think you will be able to gauge how the season is by how many minutes nelson is playing. if he is playing more, we won't be doing so well.

I could not disagree more about your last point. Nelson is one of the most athletic players we have; is one of the best defenders we have; and knows the system better than anyone. I kind of think the opposite -- if Nelson is spending a lot of time on the pine, we're in trouble.

grossbus
10-16-2007, 01:23 PM
"knows the system better than anyone"

knowing the system well does not necessarily equate to good performances. if he is gathering the same kind of minutes that he did last year, it means the oft-cited plans for "up tempo" and "use our depth" approaches have been abandoned and we are playing as we did last year. not a good thing.

the first five minutes of games in the first third of last year's season aside, he is NOT a good shooter (see flat shot reference earlier). he turns the ball over in traffic. he still seems to think he can shoot over people near the rim (he can't).

he is a good rebounder for his size and has great value in the open court, but i think he is an average defender. who did he lock down last year?

OldPhiKap
10-16-2007, 01:32 PM
"knows the system better than anyone"

knowing the system well does not necessarily equate to good performances. if he is gathering the same kind of minutes that he did last year, it means the oft-cited plans for "up tempo" and "use our depth" approaches have been abandoned and we are playing as we did last year. not a good thing.

the first five minutes of games in the first third of last year's season aside, he is NOT a good shooter (see flat shot reference earlier). he turns the ball over in traffic. he still seems to think he can shoot over people near the rim (he can't).

he is a good rebounder for his size and has great value in the open court, but i think he is an average defender. who did he lock down last year?

You are correct to state that knowing the system does not necessarily equate to good performance. But it does equate to knowing what the coach wants you to do when you're on the floor. Duke seniors have always stepped it up a notch or two and I expect the same from Nelson. I fail to see how his presence on the floor in any way means that we're not gonna run. Quite the opposite in my mind.

As far as defense is concerned -- who was a better defender last year on our squad?

grossbus
10-16-2007, 02:57 PM
"who was a better defender last year on our squad?"

sadly, no one. part of the problem.

i thought scheyer did a good job for the first half, but once into ACC play, he struggled.

jimsumner
10-16-2007, 03:11 PM
Nobody knows for certain what's going to happen. That's why they play the games (sports cliches 101). But I'm pretty darn sure that the present game plan doesn't call for Nelson's PT to diminish. He's pretty important to the '07-'08 team.

grossbus
10-16-2007, 03:15 PM
"But I'm pretty darn sure that the present game plan doesn't call for Nelson's PT to diminish"

if you truly believe that we are going up tempo and deep into the roster, where will those wing minutes come from?

Clipsfan
10-16-2007, 04:12 PM
his shot is too flat. he tends to hit the front of the rim.

he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game.

i think you will be able to gauge how the season is by how many minutes nelson is playing. if he is playing more, we won't be doing so well.

Yes, having our captain and best defender/leading scorer from last year playing minutes would definitely be a bad thing. Is that really what you think?

Ignatius07
10-16-2007, 04:35 PM
I hope Nelson will play major minutes again this season, but I don't necessarily hope he leads the team in scoring again - I think THAT might be a bad sign.

feldspar
10-16-2007, 04:38 PM
There's a reason why Nelson was voted as captain. Granted, it's probably not (just) for his ability to score points, but I think it's pretty safe to say that particular attribute is not the most important one on K's list.

Oh, and FWIW I expect his FT shooting (and the whole team's) to improve this year.

SilkyJ
10-16-2007, 05:42 PM
his shot is too flat. he tends to hit the front of the rim.

he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game.

Yes and no. Hard work often pays off, and nelson is certainly a very hard worker and I am sure he worked hard on this in the off-season. Moreover, he has had injury problems with his hand so I'm not sure if what we have seen is indicative of the norm for him.



i think you will be able to gauge how the season is by how many minutes nelson is playing. if he is playing more, we won't be doing so well.

While most people here are disagreeing with you on this, I think they are missing the point which is that Demarcus probably played a little too much last year. He had to play inside and out, and carried a lot of the load on offense and defense.

If we are going to run and be up temp this year, we need his minutes to come down to about 29-30mpg so he is fresh throughout and especially at the end of games.

I think you are right that if he is playing 32-33mpg that means that our other wing players arent performing like they should on at least one side of the ball and Coach is being forced to put Demarcus out there more than he would like.

cspan37421
10-16-2007, 06:01 PM
I vaguely recall someone - perhaps in the NBA - having a FT disqualified b/c he didn't keep his feet on the ground. Ever since, I've thought that was the rule. Not that college might not have the rule, but I assumed (sometimes a mistake!) that since no one I noticed left their feet, it must have applied there too.

My memory could be totally off, but that's how it is encoded in the grey matter. I'll look into it but assume for now I'm wrong. Thanks for the replies,

cspan

grossbus
10-16-2007, 07:26 PM
"Yes, having our captain and best defender/leading scorer from last year playing minutes would definitely be a bad thing. Is that really what you think?"

apparently i have been unclear. i don't think he should be playing as many minutes as he did last year. silkyj gets it, although i probably think he should have fewer minutes than silkyj does.

he was leading scorer on a team that could not shoot and best(?) defender on a team that couldn't stop anybody once ACC play started. i am not sure how much that is worth.

frankly, i have not, even given latitude for his unfortunate many injuries, been impressed. if we can't put better talent on the floor, i will be distressed.

grossbus
10-16-2007, 07:35 PM
"
he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game.


Yes and no. Hard work often pays off, and nelson is certainly a very hard worker and I am sure he worked hard on this in the off-season. Moreover, he has had injury problems with his hand so I'm not sure if what we have seen is indicative of the norm for him."

brian davis is the only player i have seen that really elevated his game from jr. to sr. year (he elevated it EVERY year...remarkable).

not sure how much any of that is due to hard work. i think it is skillz potential and for most people that is realized by senior year. refinements can and do take place, but not the dramatic changes that would be needed to make markie a standout.

jimsumner
10-16-2007, 07:46 PM
"brian davis is the only player i have seen that really elevated his game from jr. to sr. year."

Kevin Strickland
Alaa Abdelnaby
Tony Lang
Eric Meek
Chris Collins
Roshown McLeod
Chris Carrawell
Dahntay Jones

Troublemaker
10-16-2007, 07:47 PM
I'm cutting and pasting an old post into here.

Markie

You know, I'm not buying the "he is what he is" sentiments about Nelson. Especially not at Duke under K. We have a pretty extensive history of Duke seniors kicking butt and playing at a significantly higher level than they had previously shown in the past. Duhon. Dahntay. Cwell. Roshown. Capel. Collins. Meek. GHill & Lang. Phil & Alaa. Strick.

I think Markie will have a good jumper this season. His previous season 3-pt shooting percentages were 32%, 41%, 36%. I think he'll be around 38-40% this season. I think if we play spread the court, he will be more effective on the drive. For someone with poor vision like him, it's much easier to take one step towards the basket, see a defender collapse, and do a kickout than it is to run into traffic and try to finish or dump off. Singler and King's outside shooting ability will make Markie better. And man, if he can just add a mid-range floater (and stay healthy), he can play at a 2nd-team ACC level, imo. A reliable midrange floater would, of course, solve his ills of overpenetration and turnovers in traffic. I think he will be the main PG defender, Gerald and Jon will be the wing lockdown defenders, allowing Greg to guard the opposing team's weakest perimeter threat (although Greg will still get pounded on the boards by the likes of Ginyard or Green). Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic about Markie's season and I don't necessarily think "he is what he is."

Troublemaker
10-16-2007, 07:52 PM
I really want to emphasize the part about Singler and King helping him out. Markie can be an effective offensive player if the court is spread and the middle is unclogged. And also if we can successfully push the tempo a bit more. The faster pace / more depth would help him, not hurt him.

throatybeard
10-16-2007, 08:05 PM
I vaguely recall someone - perhaps in the NBA - having a FT disqualified b/c he didn't keep his feet on the ground.

Donaghy took the under that night.

PS -- add Duhon to Sumner's list

grossbus
10-16-2007, 08:25 PM
Alaa Abdelnaby

agree here.

carrawell and jones were better, but not surprisingly so, ditto c-doo.

the others, not so sure.

the difference, from my point of view, is that you could see the foundation for the growth with these players and i am not sure that foundation is there for markie.

hey, i would be pleased to be wrong

The Gordog
10-17-2007, 09:32 AM
He can't be any worse this year than what Jason Williams was:(

I never understood how Jason was almost as accurate a three-point shooter from 25 feet with three guys jumping him than he was standing still from 10'.

Indiana 2002...

That's some rediculous hyperbole.

Jason Williams

Season and Career Averages

............Field Goal 3-Point FG Free Throw
Season Percentage Percentage Percentage RPG APG BPG SPG PPG
Totals .453......... .393.......... .671......... 3.7 6.0 .1 2.2 19.3

jimsumner
10-17-2007, 10:56 AM
"carrawell and jones were better, but not surprisingly so, ditto c-doo."

Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression.

Devilsfan
10-17-2007, 11:25 AM
to paraphrase "Yogi". I sometimes believe that Duke kids think too much instead of just playing. Although Jason, Burgess, and Nelson might be able to get cards in the "Masons' Union".

jimsumner
10-17-2007, 12:01 PM
Jason's inability to make free throws at a higher level was and is perplexing but he is nowhere near the brick-mason's-hall-of-fame.

Or have we all forgotten Billy King. :)

mapei
10-17-2007, 01:35 PM
I remember Jason as being way streaky as a shooter, on and off the FT line. And he did, unfortunately, come up short against IU and one or two other pretty high-profile games. He was the most exciting Duke player I can remember when he was on his game, though.

Others, like Shane IIRC, shot their best FTs when it mattered most. Laettner too. The only ones I remember being absolute money were Trajan and JJ.

As for DeMarcus, I hope he can improve FTs, because it's been a liability for us. Personally, I think he has earned his captainship, but I don't necessarily think he will be our *best* player. I think he (and the team as a whole) may function best when we don't need him to be.

Clipsfan
10-17-2007, 01:48 PM
Yes and no. Hard work often pays off, and nelson is certainly a very hard worker and I am sure he worked hard on this in the off-season. Moreover, he has had injury problems with his hand so I'm not sure if what we have seen is indicative of the norm for him.



While most people here are disagreeing with you on this, I think they are missing the point which is that Demarcus probably played a little too much last year. He had to play inside and out, and carried a lot of the load on offense and defense.

If we are going to run and be up temp this year, we need his minutes to come down to about 29-30mpg so he is fresh throughout and especially at the end of games.

I think you are right that if he is playing 32-33mpg that means that our other wing players arent performing like they should on at least one side of the ball and Coach is being forced to put Demarcus out there more than he would like.

I guess that I don't think that 32 minutes (he played 31.9 last year) really is a sign that he is out there too much. Maybe my perception is warped by the minutes guys like JJ pulled out there, but 32 seems like he's getting some decent rest.

Clipsfan
10-17-2007, 01:53 PM
"Yes, having our captain and best defender/leading scorer from last year playing minutes would definitely be a bad thing. Is that really what you think?"

apparently i have been unclear. i don't think he should be playing as many minutes as he did last year. silkyj gets it, although i probably think he should have fewer minutes than silkyj does.

he was leading scorer on a team that could not shoot and best(?) defender on a team that couldn't stop anybody once ACC play started. i am not sure how much that is worth.

frankly, i have not, even given latitude for his unfortunate many injuries, been impressed. if we can't put better talent on the floor, i will be distressed.

I understand what you are saying, and as I just said in a response to Silkyj, I don't necessarily think that 32 minutes is too many considering how me makes the various units work. We need someone who can rebound as we go small, for instance. I think that the only reasons he would play a lot less would be if he plays poorly (which I definitely am not rooting for) or if K starts platooning the players, which could work very well with this year's team. Even so, he and Singler are probably the guys who enable the small ball due to speed and ability to play larger than they are on defense (I'm going off what people have said about Singler here).

DukeVu
10-17-2007, 03:45 PM
Grossbus is right on. At the end of the season, Duke was the worst defensive and perhaps offensive team that I can remember in many years. Coach K has got to make some changes or the players have got to be monumentally improved. Only Paulus was a decent shooter in the season ending debacle and NOONE showed a propensity to defend. People are talking about Henderson going PRO, well I did not see any indication that he is close to going pro. Missed free throws killed Duke. I do not see how anyone, yes anyone on this team can claim an uncontested starting position.
There is much potential there but potential does not win championships. I for one hope the coaching staff has done their homework in preparing this team.

SilkyJ
10-17-2007, 04:13 PM
I guess that I don't think that 32 minutes (he played 31.9 last year) really is a sign that he is out there too much. Maybe my perception is warped by the minutes guys like JJ pulled out there, but 32 seems like he's getting some decent rest.

It can be a lot of minutes when you have to be a big part of the offense and have to chase the best perimeter player around all the time on defense. JJ also wore down at the end of every season until his senior year.

OldPhiKap
10-17-2007, 04:39 PM
JJ also wore down at the end of every season until his senior year.

There aught to be a lesson there, methinks.

In any event, I don't think Nelson will care whether he is playing 28 mpg or 32 mpg if Duke is winning consistently. Also, I think all of the players would prefer to play all-out for as long as they can and then sub out, as opposed to have to pace themselves on the court.

My bet is that, with this team, Nelson can expend more productive energy in a game than he did last year -- even if it is over fewer minutes. And as a captain, I am sure he will lead by example. The biggest growth I am hoping for in Nelson is not his court skills, but his leadership skills.

grossbus
10-17-2007, 05:59 PM
"Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression."

the fact that he was underrecognized by some doesn't mean that you could not see it coming. i certainly did.

throatybeard
10-17-2007, 06:16 PM
There aught to be a lesson there, methinks.

Ah, I love me some ergative verbs.

jimsumner
10-17-2007, 06:40 PM
Grossbus, if you want to argue that a player who went from 9.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 45.4 fg%, and 57.7 ft% to 17.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 48.6fg%, and 77.8 ft% over the course of one season, did so without showing surprising improvement, fine.

The next time you have that prescient feeling come over you, give me a call and we'll talk Wall Street.

BTW, note the dramatic improvement in foul shooting the next time somebody tells you that a senior can't improve from the line. In case you're wondering, CC shot 57.4% from the line as a freshman, 64.1% as a sophomore.

OldPhiKap
10-17-2007, 07:01 PM
"Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression."

the fact that he was underrecognized by some doesn't mean that you could not see it coming. i certainly did.


Interesting, because you said this previously about Nelson:


"he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game."


I guess some seniors just underachieve (?!?)

grossbus
10-17-2007, 07:38 PM
carawell's game didn't change. all the skillz were already there and developed. as "the man" in his senior year, he got more opportunity to exhibit them.

grossbus
10-17-2007, 08:30 PM
"The next time you have that prescient feeling come over you, give me a call and we'll talk Wall Street."

wasn't prescient, it was observation. the guy could play. it wasn't until he was a senior that he could be the focus of the offense. prior to that he naturallly deferred to upperclassmen.

in the case of nelson, certain learned things about his game are unlikely to change. his shot mechanics, for instance. i realize his freshman hand injury led to an odd release, but his natural release that you see now results in a very flat shot. he uses the same release on his foul shot. he does not elevate on his shot (compare photos of JJ taking a jumper and markie taking a jumper, JJ is 18 inches off the floor, markie is up on his toes) which contibutes to the flat arc. as the game progresses, the likelihood of his shot from the field or the line being short increases. his misses at the line last year late in games were entirely predicatble. i called almost everyone (my nephew was witness). these mechanics will not change.

what also will not change is his method of driving to the basket where he stops with both feet on the floor and attempts to elevate straight up for the shot. this probably worked really well in HS, but in college it results in a lot of logo imprints on his forehead. compare that to a hendu or marty who elevate to the hoop as part of the progress to the hoop. he has done this for three years. i think it will continue.

with some exceptions (brian davis is my favorite example), players GAMES don't change much from jr to sr years. they may get more opportunity to display their games (as is what happened with chris) or they may get healthier (as happened with meek).

time will tell. i am willing to observe actual play and be delighted.

jimsumner
10-17-2007, 08:45 PM
Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?

Johnboy
10-17-2007, 09:13 PM
IIRC, Billy McCaffrey left his feet slightly when he shot FTs. He basically shot a mini-jumper.

In his freshman year, Billy McCaffrey shot a little jumper from the FT line and shot nearly 80% (.793).

http://www.sportsstats.com/bball/individual.stats/player_stats/player1278.txt

ETA: I didn't mean to pile on there.

yancem
10-17-2007, 10:48 PM
wasn't prescient, it was observation. the guy could play. it wasn't until he was a senior that he could be the focus of the offense. prior to that he naturallly deferred to upperclassmen.
.

Actually, he was deferring as much to underclassman as upperclassman. Brand and Avery were sophomores, Maggette a freshman and Langdon a senior (the four players averaged more points a game):
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=1998-99

Regardless of year though, Carrawell isn't a very good comparison to Nelson. Carrawell saw mass defection from 4 first round draft picks after his junior year. He obviously wasn't going to be a star in '99 with the talent surrounding him. In '00 he was able to show what he was capable of. On the other hand, who was Nelson deferring to last year? Don't get me wrong, I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game) but unlike Carrawell, he was given a chance to shine as a junior. I'm also not saying he didn't have a fine year but he was far from dominant.

Also, with regard to Nelson's minutes effecting team success, I think some of the supporters for him playing lots of minutes may be missing a key point. We already know basically what he is capable of. While many may argue how much he will improve, I doubt anyone thinks that he will regress. If we can agree to this point than the only reason (other than injury) for him to be on the bench would because someone else (Henderson, Scheyer,Smith, Pocius, King) has really stepped it up. This would be a good thing, no?

I also agree with an earlier post that if Nelson is the leading scorer, that probably is not a good sign. That is unless he takes a large step forward to the 18-20 point a game range. One of the problems I think Duke had last year was not knowing where to go when we needed a bucket. If Nelson is the leading scorer again this year with an average of about 14 ppg, we'll be in the same boat.

dukemomLA
10-18-2007, 02:46 AM
The ability to hit FT's is NOT a coaching problem. IMHO, this is up to the players themselves. Get out there and shoot at least 100 throws a day -- some of them with eyes shut.

If one can't hit at least 20 in a row, start over. FTs should be a GIVEN -- that's why they're call FREE. Duh....any elite athlete should be able to hit at least 75% or they're not doing their job.

I was appalled and dismayed at our FTs last season. Again, anything under...let's say 70% for the team is not acceptable. Step it up, Dukies. Do your basketball homework. I'm rooting for a 80% this year, so guys...don't let me down. Your FTs could mean success of failure in game after game. If you want to win, do it!

grossbus
10-18-2007, 09:12 AM
"Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?"

he had no (as in zero) outside shot as a freshman (and by outside i mean anything outside of 6 feet). as a senior, he was a reliable and willing three point shooter.

OldPhiKap
10-18-2007, 09:53 AM
"Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?"

he had no (as in zero) outside shot as a freshman (and by outside i mean anything outside of 6 feet). as a senior, he was a reliable and willing three point shooter.

I guess what confuses me about your posts is why you think Davis or Carrawell had the ability to raise the level of their games from junior to senior year, but Nelson does not. I would foresee the same type of growth in Nelson, particularly in his maturity and leadership roles. That is more important to my mind than any measure of pure production, because we have a more balanced offensive tool box this year.

grossbus
10-18-2007, 02:53 PM
"I guess what confuses me about your posts is why you think Davis or Carrawell had the ability to raise the level of their games from junior to senior year, but Nelson does not. I would foresee the same type of growth in Nelson, particularly in his maturity and leadership roles. That is more important to my mind than any measure of pure production, because we have a more balanced offensive tool box this year."

well, you have confused what i have said. davis elevated his game by developing skills that were absent or nominal. carrawell did NOT raise the level of his game, he just got the opportunities to display his game that he did not get in prior years because of other talent on the floor. his game was pretty much complete after his shoulder(s?) got repaired.

i think nelson's game is as complete as it is going to be, which is incomplete. the areas where he needs to grow/change have not in three years, so why would they now?

we might as well wait until we get into ACC play and then resume the discussion. nothing is likely to be revealed until this.

grossbus
10-18-2007, 02:57 PM
"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

OldPhiKap
10-18-2007, 03:22 PM
"i think nelson's game is as complete as it is going to be, which is incomplete. the areas where he needs to grow/change have not in three years, so why would they now?


I think we just disagree on that point, and as you say it will play itself out.

To my mind, Nelson had injuries to deal with early in his career and has not had the benefit of three full years of full health. He also had to shoulder the load last year and as a junior had some difficulty making that adjustment. It is hard to go from a support role to being the leader and a prime scoring option.

I think there is a lot of room for growth with Nelson, and I have faith that K knows how to shape and reach that potential. There will be more scorers on the floor this year, with better balance, so that should make it easier for everyone. Add in the fact that he's trying to lead folks with an extra year of experience, and that he has an extra year of experience, and I don't see how anyone can write off even the possibility of growth of his game.

Assuming he stays healthy, I'd be willing to wager that he is a Second- or Third-team All-ACC player by the end of the year (if not better). That would certainly show improvement over last year, when he was an honorable mention.


"i can tell you this, he is not a shooter."

Didn't he have the same three-point % as Scheyer? Maybe I'm wrong about that. I guess I'm not sure what you're comparing here. For my money, if he has a good enough shot to make the defender body up and play him honestly, that allows him to drive and makes room for someone on the post. We can live with that.



As far as Davis and Carrawell, my bad if I misunderstood your point. I confuse myself on a daily basis. I'm not sure I agree with your distinction, but that's a topic for another thread I guess.

Peace out, OPK

grossbus
10-18-2007, 04:21 PM
"Didn't he have the same three-point % as Scheyer?"

i don't think scheyer is a shooter either (many in-season posts about that last year).

jimsumner
10-18-2007, 04:21 PM
"as a senior, he [Brian Davis] was a reliable and willing three point shooter."

As a senior Brian Davis attempted 39 three-point shots. He made 8. That's 20.5%.

Chris Carrawell was 0-2 on 3s as a freshman. As a senior he was 29-77.

As a freshman Chris Carrawell had 34 assists and 29 turnovers. As a senior, he had 110 assists and 69 turnovers.

As a freshman Chris Carrawell made 57.6% of his free throws. As a senior, he made 77.6%.

Over the course of his career at Duke Carrawell significantly improved his 3-pt fg%, his a/to ratio, and his ft%. It it quacks like a duck. . .

Duke12
10-19-2007, 11:53 AM
Wasn't Ricky Price a (the) leading scorer in California as well? CA high school basketball must favor crossover type slashing player

yancem
10-19-2007, 12:24 PM
"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

I've also been wondering how he became the all time scoring champ in CA. I agree that based on what he's done at Duke that it would appear that he scored most of his points in transition/drives to the hoop but with the 3 pointer being such a big part of the game, I would think that he had to make a fair number of 3's. Did anyone see him play in HS?

Clipsfan
10-26-2007, 01:22 PM
"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

I saw him play against Lincoln about 5-6 years ago (Telfair was on that Lincoln team). He actually got a lot of his points by making some long range 3s (he started lighting it up in the second half).

jimsumner
10-26-2007, 02:03 PM
FWIW, DeMarcus Nelson has already identified the player he thinks will break his career scoring record; his younger brother. I believe his name is Darius but I didn't write it down and may have misremembered it. In any event his brother is 6'5" and in the 9th grade.

Jumbo
10-26-2007, 02:27 PM
Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

You're allowed to jump on a FT. You just can't cross the FT line until the ball hits the rim.

Jumbo
10-26-2007, 02:32 PM
I've also been wondering how he became the all time scoring champ in CA. I agree that based on what he's done at Duke that it would appear that he scored most of his points in transition/drives to the hoop but with the 3 pointer being such a big part of the game, I would think that he had to make a fair number of 3's. Did anyone see him play in HS?

He played against a low level of competition. California is a pretty large state, in case you haven't heard. The whole "leading scorer in CA history" thing is a giant red herring.