MBB: Duke vs. Florida State (Feb 28 7:00 EST, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[kAzE]

We need this one to stay in the top 4 (and get the double bye in the ACCT), but we also need Grayson and Amile to get healthy. On the other hand, this will likely be the last game either of them ever play at Cameron. Therefore, I expect both of them will play. Hopefully, they don't overdo it.

The Seminoles are coming off of 2 straight wins, a blowout at home vs. BC and a tight win on the road at Clemson. They are deep and talented. I don't think anybody here is looking past this game toward the season finale at UNC, because FSU is a damn good team, and it's a chance for us to pick up a quality win, as well as stay in the running for the double bye, which we need. Badly.

Next play. LETS GO DUKE!

[rsvman]

I hope Coach K chooses to rest both of them, senior day or not. We need HEALTH more than we need WINS right now. IMNSHO.


(Not to say that we couldn't possibly sneak out a win here without either of them, because that is possible.)

[Olympic Fan]

Coach K said today (Monday) on the ACC teleconference that both players are essentially game-day decisions.

He also said that h was looking to play them, not rest them ... but it all depends on how they look/feel in pregame warmups Tuesday night.

[TKG]

I hope Coach K chooses to rest both of them, senior day or not. We need HEALTH more than we need WINS right now. IMNSHO.


(Not to say that we couldn't possibly sneak out a win here without either of them, because that is possible.)

Agree. We need to go "all in" for the NCAAT and if that means rest for both GA and AJ for the next three games then I, for one, am OK with it.

[kAzE]

I hope Coach K chooses to rest both of them, senior day or not. We need HEALTH more than we need WINS right now. IMNSHO.


(Not to say that we couldn't possibly sneak out a win here without either of them, because that is possible.)

I'm not so sure I agree that we don't need this win. We need this win BECAUSE we need to stay healthy. If we lose this game, we're almost assuredly going to be 5th-8th in the standings, which means in order to win the ACCT, we'd need to win 4 games in 4 days, or at least play 4 games in 4 days to be the runner up.

That's not what you want to do when you're trying to get into the NCAA tournament relatively healthy. If we somehow stay in the top 4 seeds, we'd have to play at most 3 games in 3 days. The deep teams (UVA, UNC, FSU) in the ACC have a huge advantage on us in this regard.

[rsvman]

I'm not so sure I agree that we don't need this win. We need this win BECAUSE we need to stay healthy. If we lose this game, we're almost assuredly going to be 5th-8th in the standings, which means in order to win the ACCT, we'd need to win 4 games in 4 days, or at least play 4 games in 4 days to be the runner up.

That's not what you want to do when you're trying to get into the NCAA tournament relatively healthy. If we somehow stay in the top 4 seeds, we'd have to play at most 3 games in 3 days. The deep teams (UVA, UNC, FSU) in the ACC have a huge advantage on us in this regard.

This is making the assumption that the team is attempting to win the ACCT. Not saying that Coach K isn't aiming for that, I'm just saying that your analysis necessarily includes that assumption.

[kAzE]

This is making the assumption that the team is attempting to win the ACCT. Not saying that Coach K isn't aiming for that, I'm just saying that your analysis necessarily includes that assumption.

Why would we not attempt to win the ACCT? At some point, you gotta take what you can get. If we "throw" the ACCT to get healthy for the NCAAT, and then we flop in the NCAAT, was it really worth it? Plus, a good showing in the ACCT would almost definitely improve our seeding in the NCAAT, and seeding matters. It really does. To me, the ACC Championship is a big deal. Not as big as the National Championship, but I'd say it's right up there:

1. National Championship
2. Final Four
3. ACC Championship
4. Sweet 16

[TKG]

Given our health issues, this team is not winning games on consecutive days. I am worried enough about the short turnaround in the opening rounds of the NCAAT and that is with a days rest between games. We need to be healthy or closer to healthy for the NCAAT.

[MrPoon]

I look forward to getting GA and Amile rest AND beating FSU!!!
The advantage of having K on the bench.

:)

[NM Duke Fan]

Given our health issues, this team is not winning games on consecutive days. I am worried enough about the short turnaround in the opening rounds of the NCAAT and that is with a days rest between games. We need to be healthy or closer to healthy for the NCAAT.

This! My thoughts exactly. This year for once the ACC tournament to me drops in importance due to the continuing health situation of two key players and how the team has been beaten up all year. It still has the potential to go far in the NCAA tournament, which is the overarching goald of the season, IF it is at a decent level of health. Especially where Grayson can play agressively and explosively.

[BigZ]

I know both Matt and Jefferson will be honored but since he is graduating earlier will Grayson be honored to for Senior night?

[uh_no]

I know both Matt and Jefferson will be honored but since he is graduating earlier will Grayson be honored to for Senior night?

Is there any confirmation that grayson is graduating? I've heard rumors that he was on pace a year ago, but that isn't proof positive that he actually is.

[Duke76]

Is there any confirmation that grayson is graduating? I've heard rumors that he was on pace a year ago, but that isn't proof positive that he actually is.

"was it Over when the Germans bomb Pearl Harbor"...Coach K been wanting to have something to play for....believe we got something to play for tomorrow night and then Saturday..the season just started!!!!!!!!!!Go to Hell Carolina

[Doria]

Maybe he could just start them, then take them out at the first timeout? That way, they'd get to play a little in their last home game, but still get some rest. Although... I wouldn't really want to be the one to tell a dressed and warmed up Grayson that he couldn't play anymore. I mean, he's like 2.5 me's.

[Pghdukie]

The 3 players have been loyal to the program, and K will acknowledge that fact. If Jefferson, Jones, and Allen want to play, I believe K will honor their loyality. They are a credit to Duke, and the decision should be theirs to play or not in their last game at Cameron.

And may they be honored so !

[DukieInBrasil]

Why would we not attempt to win the ACCT? At some point, you gotta take what you can get. If we "throw" the ACCT to get healthy for the NCAAT, and then we flop in the NCAAT, was it really worth it? Plus, a good showing in the ACCT would almost definitely improve our seeding in the NCAAT, and seeding matters. It really does. To me, the ACC Championship is a big deal. Not as big as the National Championship, but I'd say it's right up there:

1. National Championship
2. Final Four
3. ACC Championship
4. Sweet 16

Since the ACC has had 18 Final Four teams in the last 20 years, it seems that the Final Four and ACC championship are almost of equal value. It's not a totally legit comparison b/c the ACC champ might not make the F4 in each of those instances, and in some cases could not have b/c the ACC had 2 entrants in a F4 on multiple occasions. Even with that, i agree with your ranking. Duke has made the S16 even with a 3 or 4 seed and far from the ACC championship.

[BigZ]

I know this opinion is the minority but I think Allen comes back. His nba draft stock has fallen off a cliff

[CoachJ10]

Jayson and Luke combined for 3 fta last game...and that was on one call. We need to get to the free throw line against the 'Noles. Lets hope our boys don't continue to get the Jabari treatment (he was the Anti-Hansborough).

I am actually of the mindset that I don't mind if Grayson plays...lets just control his minutes if need be.

This is a game to prove our mental strength. Veterans making veteran plays and freshman showing their growth.

[BigZ]

I'd put the two games against UNC ahead of the ACC tournament in terms of importance

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[Olympic Fan]

I'd put the two games against UNC ahead of the ACC tournament in terms of importance

Not me and not K -- he always says we play for Championships and the ACC Tournament determines the official ACC championship.

I would rather have a regional championship (which means reaching the Final Four) and obviously a National Championship trumps everything.

But the ACC Championship -- determined by the tournament -- is No. 3 on my list ... and nothing else (even sweeping the Cheaters) is close.

[gep]

Not me and not K -- he always says we play for Championships and the ACC Tournament determines the official ACC championship.

I would rather have a regional championship (which means reaching the Final Four) and obviously a National Championship trumps everything.

But the ACC Championship -- determined by the tournament -- is No. 3 on my list ... and nothing else (even sweeping the Cheaters) is close.

Yep... I agree. Years ago, I remember Coach K saying (don't know if was a quote) that every season, they have 4 goals. Regular season ACC winner, ACC tournament championship, Regional championship, and National championship. I've lived for these every year since.

3 of these are still in play. GO DUKE!!!!

[WakeDevil]

I'd put the two games against UNC ahead of the ACC tournament in terms of importance

You get it, unlike certain others here.

[Troublemaker]

For those that don't read the plus-minus thread, here's something that's interesting.

http://i.imgur.com/cG82mnc.png

Bolden's per-40 plus-minus could be argued to be meaningless because of small sample or something else. (Personally, I think he should be playing more minutes). But, it's perhaps something to keep in mind going forward.

[heyman25]

I pray Matt Jones hits his shots. He will be wide open initially. He has missed too many open looks. He needs to spend extra time after practice working on making his shots.I will be working and can not watch.I hope Grayson and Amile sit and heal. We need a healthy team to propel us in the post season.I want to see Giles and Bolden score and exude confidence. Florida State wants to spoil Senior Night. It is up to the freshmen to get back to basics. Defend , rebound, score , and screen.

[DukeWarhead]

Rest Grayson and Amile and just focus on the NCAAT? Best way to get a 7 seed and first round loss in the NCAAT. Every game is important.

[BigZ]

You get it, unlike certain others here.

Yep the ACC tournament is overrated now days. Just ask yourself what do you remember more big shots against UNC or the ACC tournament

[Duke76]

I'd put the two games against UNC ahead of the ACC tournament in terms of importance

yep for me its NCAA championship

and a distant second but still second, beating carolina twice or thrice in a year

[Saratoga2]

For those that don't read the plus-minus thread, here's something that's interesting.

http://i.imgur.com/cG82mnc.png

Bolden's per-40 plus-minus could be argued to be meaningless because of small sample or something else. (Personally, I think he should be playing more minutes). But, it's perhaps something to keep in mind going forward.

According to that, is Kennard our worst of the group? If so, it king of makes a laugh of the statistics.

[Indoor66]

According to that, is Kennard our worst of the group? If so, it kind of makes a laugh of the statistics.

Yeah, stats ALONE never tell the story. Kinda like a hammer, only a tool. Mostly useless without a nail and someone to swing it.

[jv001]

Yeah, stats ALONE never tell the story. Kinda like a hammer, only a tool. Mostly useless without a nail and someone to swing it.

Luke's swung a pretty big hammer this season. GoDuke!

[Spanarkel]

I pray Matt Jones hits his shots. He will be wide open initially. He has missed too many open looks. He needs to spend extra time after practice working on making his shots.I will be working and can not watch.I hope Grayson and Amile sit and heal. We need a healthy team to propel us in the post season.I want to see Giles and Bolden score and exude confidence. Florida State wants to spoil Senior Night. It is up to the freshmen to get back to basics. Defend , rebound, score , and screen.

I have begun to think that even if/when Matt is wide open, should he be shooting as often(~7 attempts per game)as he does, given that he has by far the lowest points per shot average of any of Duke's top seven this season? I know that he provides invaluable defense and leadership, and I am not saying that he should play less minutes, just perhaps shoot less often( maybe put up ~3-4 shots per game). Marquette's '76-'77 championship team(that denied the athletically superior heels the title)had as its glue guy Jim Boylan who shot very infrequently(three point shot not in play then).

Points Per Shot(2016-2017 Season, all games played)

Amile Jefferson 1.59
Luke Kennard 1.52
Frank Jackson 1.35
Grayson Allen 1.33
Jayson Tatum 1.31
Harry Giles 1.26
Matt Jones 1.09

TEAM 1.38

I didn't do the calculations for ACC play. Any thoughts? Let's go, Duke!

[Indoor66]

I have begun to think that even if/when Matt is wide open, should he be shooting as often(~7 attempts per game)as he does, given that he has by far the lowest points per shot average of any of Duke's top seven this season? I know that he provides invaluable defense and leadership, and I am not saying that he should play less minutes, just perhaps shoot less often( maybe put up ~3-4 shots per game). Marquette's '76-'77 championship team(that denied the athletically superior heels the title)had as its glue guy Jim Boylan who shot very infrequently(three point shot not in play then).

Points Per Shot(2016-2017 Season, all games played)

Amile Jefferson 1.59
Luke Kennard 1.52
Frank Jackson 1.35
Grayson Allen 1.33
Jayson Tatum 1.31
Harry Giles 1.26
Matt Jones 1.09

TEAM 1.38

I didn't do the calculations for ACC play. Any thoughts? Let's go, Duke!

He has to be a threat to shoot or others get greater defensive attention.

[Saratoga2]

He has to be a threat to shoot or others get greater defensive attention.

I agree, but how much of a threat is he if he misses the wide open shots at such a high rate?

[superdave]

Winning begets winning. This team was on a roll for 7 games. The best way to start another winning streak is for Grayson and Amile to give it everything they have tonight and win.

That has always been Coach K's method late in the season. This is the stretch run. Go Duke!

[Troublemaker]

According to that, is Kennard our worst of the group? If so, it king of makes a laugh of the statistics.

No, plus-minus shouldn't be used to judge who's the best or who's the worst player (or anything in between). However, it is true that Duke has out-scored ACC opponents the least when Luke is on the court, when adjusted for minutes. That stat isn't wrong. The interpretation needs to be careful.

I already wrote this in the plus-minus thread but will repeat it here. Luke and Matt have lower ACC plus-minus numbers than they should because they're big minutes players who have not missed games due to injury or suspension (**knock on freaking wood**). So when we played VaTech without Grayson, or FSU and Lville without Amile, they ate a ton of negative scoring margin that's not fair due to Duke playing at less than 100%. So, they've had to work their way back from being on the court for all those minutes when Duke wasn't 100%. That's why their numbers are low.

So again, be careful with the interpretation.

Bolden's PM / 40 is still impressive and intrigues me. There are 7 ants and 1 giant in PM / 40.

[EricBNC]

I know this opinion is the minority but I think Allen comes back. His nba draft stock has fallen off a cliff

Also this is going to be an insanely good/deep draft.

Earlier in the season I would have thought there'd be no way Grayson would want to subject himself to another season of scrutiny from the media and opposing fans on the road. But it looks to me like he's possibly reached a zen phase right now and is less bothered by it. I also think he truly loves Duke. So I think he could be back next year. Hope so! Wishful thinking probably.

[Troublemaker]

I agree, but how much of a threat is he if he misses the wide open shots at such a high rate?

He doesn't miss at a high rate. I'd like him to be higher, but 34% from three overall and 36% from three in ACC play is good enough.

[OldPhiKap]

Did not see a Vegas line this morning on the game -- I guess the books are waiting to see if Grayson and Amile play or not.

Go Duke!

[CDu]

I have begun to think that even if/when Matt is wide open, should he be shooting as often(~7 attempts per game)as he does, given that he has by far the lowest points per shot average of any of Duke's top seven this season? I know that he provides invaluable defense and leadership, and I am not saying that he should play less minutes, just perhaps shoot less often( maybe put up ~3-4 shots per game). Marquette's '76-'77 championship team(that denied the athletically superior heels the title)had as its glue guy Jim Boylan who shot very infrequently(three point shot not in play then).

Points Per Shot(2016-2017 Season, all games played)

Amile Jefferson 1.59
Luke Kennard 1.52
Frank Jackson 1.35
Grayson Allen 1.33
Jayson Tatum 1.31
Harry Giles 1.26
Matt Jones 1.09

TEAM 1.38

I didn't do the calculations for ACC play. Any thoughts? Let's go, Duke!

His ACC numbers are slightly better (1.16 points per shot), but still not great. That being said, he already takes the fewest shots per minute of any of the regulars. Maybe he could shoot 1 or 2 fewer times per game, but it isn't like he is some high-volume shooter most nights.

I would say that Jones' shooting has hurt the team in maybe 3 games this season (@Wake, @Cuse, and @Miami). But in the Syracuse and Miami games, he was far from the problem in the losses.

Against Syracuse, Jones took just 6 shots in 40 minutes. Compare that to Allen's 2-11 in 29 minutes (this is not a criticism of Allen - he was hurt) and Jackson's 0-4 in 15 minutes, Jones' 40 minutes of stellar defense on Andrew White and just 6 shots doesn't look too bad. And more specifically, it was Allen's immobility and Jackson's inability to defend Gillon that allowed Gillon to blow up in the second half.

Against Miami, Jones shot more (2-9 in 37 minutes). But Kennard and Tatum are the ones who ultimately did us in by shooting a combined 10-36.

Jones is on the floor for his defense. On offense, his only responsibility to take and hopefully make open 3s. He hasn't hit those shots the past two games. But focusing on his relatively low number of shots seems to overlook the more pressing problems for the team. Against Syracuse, it was the injured and ineffective Allen and the ineffective Jackson on both ends of the floor that cost us. Against Miami, it was the complete lack of shooting from all of our perimeter guys except for Jackson.

[FadedTackyShirt]

The 3 players have been loyal to the program, and K will acknowledge that fact. If Jefferson, Jones, and Allen want to play, I believe K will honor their loyality. They are a credit to Duke, and the decision should be theirs to play or not in their last game at Cameron.

And may they be honored so !

Why wouldn't Matt want to play? Nobody's 100% at this point, but no reason to rest him along with Grayson & Amile.

K's mentality is to win as much as possible. Grayson & Amile won't play 30+ mins apiece vs FSU & UNC, but neither will miss both games either.

[duketaylor]

Duke -6 and o/u 155

[OldPhiKap]

Duke -6 and o/u 155

Thanks!

[FerryFor50]

His ACC numbers are slightly better (1.16 points per shot), but still not great. That being said, he already takes the fewest shots per minute of any of the regulars. Maybe he could shoot 1 or 2 fewer times per game, but it isn't like he is some high-volume shooter most nights.

I would say that Jones' shooting has hurt the team in maybe 3 games this season (@Wake, @Cuse, and @Miami). But in the Syracuse and Miami games, he was far from the problem in the losses.

Against Syracuse, Jones took just 6 shots in 40 minutes. Compare that to Allen's 2-11 in 29 minutes (this is not a criticism of Allen - he was hurt) and Jackson's 0-4 in 15 minutes, Jones' 40 minutes of stellar defense on Andrew White and just 6 shots doesn't look too bad. And more specifically, it was Allen's immobility and Jackson's inability to defend Gillon that allowed Gillon to blow up in the second half.

Against Miami, Jones shot more (2-9 in 37 minutes). But Kennard and Tatum are the ones who ultimately did us in by shooting a combined 10-36.

Jones is on the floor for his defense. On offense, his only responsibility to take and hopefully make open 3s. He hasn't hit those shots the past two games. But focusing on his relatively low number of shots seems to overlook the more pressing problems for the team. Against Syracuse, it was the injured and ineffective Allen and the ineffective Jackson on both ends of the floor that cost us. Against Miami, it was the complete lack of shooting from all of our perimeter guys except for Jackson.

If Jones doesn't shoot, then you only have 3 offensive options out there at any given time, seeing as how the big rotation of Jefferson, Giles and Bolden aren't really offensive options yet outside of 3-5 feet from the basket. That means teams could make life even harder for the combination on Tatum/Jackson/Allen/Kennard.

We need Jones to shoot and be a threat to shoot, even if he has an off night, if only to space out the defense a bit more and make them at least lean his way when he catches the ball.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I understand the handwringing over health and fatigue, but this team more than most in our recent history needs wins. I don't mean because of seedings or rankings, but for thei psyche. Clearly this season hasn't gone according to plan, but winning these last two games of the season would do wonders for our confidence level going into the two elimination tournaments.

Losing these two games and an early exit from the ACC means a rickety team headed to the big dance. Two wins followed by three more would mean we were peaking in two weeks and expecting to win and play a few more weekends.

[English]

I agree, but how much of a threat is he if he misses the wide open shots at such a high rate?

I'd be interested to find out if the scouting report on Duke calls for defenders to explicitly let Jones shoot from 3pt at this point, or more specifically, to sag off Jones in favor of helping on the more dangerous offensive threats. Anecdotally, Matt has had a couple more reasonably open drives the last couple of games, and perhaps that's because his primary defender is more preoccupied with shading toward Luke & Jayson.

I don't blame Matt for the slump lately, though, because it's gotta be a real drain on your legs and wind to hound the other team's best player all game. It sure would be nice to see a couple of Matt's better performances forthcoming, since he seems to be an all-or-nothing shooter (5-7 or 1-7...never any middle ground).

While we're here, I cannot remember another team--Duke or otherwise--that was so bad at fast break offense. I suppose it's possible that, with all the injuries and limited practice time, the coaching staff cannot drill the guys on that facet of the game. On the other hand, isn't this a skill that these guys have been practicing and excelling at completing for the better part of their lives?! I mean, 2-on-1s, 3-on-1s, it should be a cakewalk and yet, it's really become a liability. Tough to watch at times.

I'm cautiously optimistic about senior night tonight, although I'd guess a lot depends on Grayson & Amile. I predict that both play, but are on a slightly restricted minutes count. That said, the Vegas line started at Duke -5.5, and that seems high for us with the injury struggles we're dealing with.

[BigZ]

Any chance Nick starts. I know K doesn't always play the walk on senior but it would be a good way to fire up the team.

[SlapTheFloor]

Today is the first game of the rest of our season! Today is the day we combine the defense against Virginia with the offense against Wake Forest! Today is the day Matt Jones rediscovers his shooting stroke. Go Duke!

[Troublemaker]

I have begun to think that even if/when Matt is wide open, should he be shooting as often(~7 attempts per game)as he does, given that he has by far the lowest points per shot average of any of Duke's top seven this season? I know that he provides invaluable defense and leadership, and I am not saying that he should play less minutes, just perhaps shoot less often( maybe put up ~3-4 shots per game). Marquette's '76-'77 championship team(that denied the athletically superior heels the title)had as its glue guy Jim Boylan who shot very infrequently(three point shot not in play then).

Points Per Shot(2016-2017 Season, all games played)

Amile Jefferson 1.59
Luke Kennard 1.52
Frank Jackson 1.35
Grayson Allen 1.33
Jayson Tatum 1.31
Harry Giles 1.26
Matt Jones 1.09

TEAM 1.38

I didn't do the calculations for ACC play. Any thoughts? Let's go, Duke!

I meant to reply to this earlier but forgot.

That stat you are using -- points per shot -- isn't appropriate for measuring whether Matt Jones should be shooting. What you would have to do is deduct free throws made from the points. The reason is because Matt, like many 3-and-D players who mostly shoot from outside, doesn't get fouled to shoot free throws.

A better stat to use is effective FG %, which essentially measures how good a shooter you are from 3 and 2 combined. Matt's eFG% of 51% is fine and is actually higher than Grayson's. But Grayson's points per shot is higher because he gets to the free throw line all the time and that boosts his points per shot.

Now again, with all stats, you have to interpret carefully. I would definitely want Grayson shooting more shots than Matt, especially when Grayson is healthy. Just saying that, points per shot isn't a good stat for determining whether Matt should be shooting when wide open. Hopefully that makes sense.

[Spanarkel]

His ACC numbers are slightly better (1.16 points per shot), but still not great. That being said, he already takes the fewest shots per minute of any of the regulars. Maybe he could shoot 1 or 2 fewer times per game, but it isn't like he is some high-volume shooter most nights.

I would say that Jones' shooting has hurt the team in maybe 3 games this season (@Wake, @Cuse, and @Miami). But in the Syracuse and Miami games, he was far from the problem in the losses.

Against Syracuse, Jones took just 6 shots in 40 minutes. Compare that to Allen's 2-11 in 29 minutes (this is not a criticism of Allen - he was hurt) and Jackson's 0-4 in 15 minutes, Jones' 40 minutes of stellar defense on Andrew White and just 6 shots doesn't look too bad. And more specifically, it was Allen's immobility and Jackson's inability to defend Gillon that allowed Gillon to blow up in the second half.

Against Miami, Jones shot more (2-9 in 37 minutes). But Kennard and Tatum are the ones who ultimately did us in by shooting a combined 10-36.

Jones is on the floor for his defense. On offense, his only responsibility to take and hopefully make open 3s. He hasn't hit those shots the past two games. But focusing on his relatively low number of shots seems to overlook the more pressing problems for the team. Against Syracuse, it was the injured and ineffective Allen and the ineffective Jackson on both ends of the floor that cost us. Against Miami, it was the complete lack of shooting from all of our perimeter guys except for Jackson.


In the past five weeks, Duke's losses have been by 2, 3 and 5 points. I don't feel that the team needs major adjustments to be very successful in the last two regular season games, the ACCT and NCAAs. If the coaching staff can identify and have the team work on several improvable facets of the game(shot selection, fast break execution, adding an alley-oop or two to HG/MB, etc.), Duke may be able to "find" 4-6+ extra points per game and win even games in which its overall shooting percentage is pedestrian(~40% overall). I think looking at "who is taking the shots and what kinds of shots are being taken" is a reasonable part of the adjustments that can be made, and still use the same very talented personnel for the same number of minutes. As several posters have pointed out, it seems like defenders are already sagging off of MJ, leading to his typically open looks. I know that he cannot totally stop shooting, as others have pointed out.

One other area of potential improvement may be in securing loose balls under the opponents' basket(after misses/"muffed rebounds" by us/after blocks). I've seen Coach K demonstrably motioning several times to "grab the ball" after such loose balls led to second chance points or continuation of the opponents' possession.

I trust the coaching staff to address and correct these and other areas as the stakes get higher.

Let's go, Duke!

[Troublemaker]

In the past five weeks, Duke's losses have been by 2, 3 and 5 points. I don't feel that the team needs major adjustments to be very successful in the last two regular season games, the ACCT and NCAAs. If the coaching staff can identify and have the team work on several improvable facets of the game(shot selection, fast break execution, adding an alley-oop or two to HG/MB, etc.), Duke may be able to "find" 4-6+ extra points per game and win even games in which its overall shooting percentage is pedestrian(~40% overall). I think looking at "who is taking the shots and what kinds of shots are being taken" is a reasonable part of the adjustments that can be made, and still use the same very talented personnel for the same number of minutes. As several posters have pointed out, it seems like defenders are already sagging off of MJ, leading to his typically open looks. I know that he cannot totally stop shooting, as others have pointed out.

One other area of potential improvement may be in securing loose balls under the opponents' basket(after misses/"muffed rebounds" by us/after blocks). I've seen Coach K demonstrably motioning several times to "grab the ball" after such loose balls led to second chance points or continuation of the opponents' possession.

I trust the coaching staff to address and correct these and other areas as the stakes get higher.

Let's go, Duke!

Trust me, Coach K and staff will be telling Matt Jones to shoot his wide-open shots.

[DukieInBrasil]

In the past five weeks, Duke's losses have been by 2, 3 and 5 points. I don't feel that the team needs major adjustments to be very successful in the last two regular season games, the ACCT and NCAAs. If the coaching staff can identify and have the team work on several improvable facets of the game(shot selection, fast break execution, adding an alley-oop or two to HG/MB, etc.), Duke may be able to "find" 4-6+ extra points per game and win even games in which its overall shooting percentage is pedestrian(~40% overall). I think looking at "who is taking the shots and what kinds of shots are being taken" is a reasonable part of the adjustments that can be made, and still use the same very talented personnel for the same number of minutes. As several posters have pointed out, it seems like defenders are already sagging off of MJ, leading to his typically open looks. I know that he cannot totally stop shooting, as others have pointed out.

One other area of potential improvement may be in securing loose balls under the opponents' basket(after misses/"muffed rebounds" by us/after blocks). I've seen Coach K demonstrably motioning several times to "grab the ball" after such loose balls led to second chance points or continuation of the opponents' possession.

I trust the coaching staff to address and correct these and other areas as the stakes get higher.

Let's go, Duke!

Excellent thoughts. The close losses haven't bothered me much precisely b/c the types of things that have been failing us are coachable and in all 3 of those losses we've either been missing a player or had 1 or more players playing at well under even 75% capacity. Learn a couple of things and get healthy and all of a sudden this team looks pretty dang impressive.
It'd be nice if we were blowing other teams out, but 1pt wins count just as much as 30pt wins.

[Kedsy]

For those that don't read the plus-minus thread, here's something that's interesting.

http://i.imgur.com/cG82mnc.png

Bolden's per-40 plus-minus could be argued to be meaningless because of small sample or something else. (Personally, I think he should be playing more minutes). But, it's perhaps something to keep in mind going forward.

I looked at our top two +/- guys in the chart and deducted the Georgia Tech game. Just taking away that one blowout, Marques goes from 16.4 to 10.9 +- per 40, and Frank goes from 7.3 to 2.6 +/- per 40. If you also take away Marques's +/- in our 39 point win over Maine, his season numbers go to 4.1 +/- per 40.

Put another way, in three games that we averaged a victory margin of 47 points (GaT, Maine, UNLV; 3 games that comprise 35% of his season minutes), Marques was +44. The rest of the season combined, he was +3. In our three biggest losses (VaT, L'ville, FSU, average margin of -13), Marques averaged 4 mpg. This is how +/- myths get started.

[Spanarkel]

I meant to reply to this earlier but forgot.

That stat you are using -- points per shot -- isn't appropriate for measuring whether Matt Jones should be shooting. What you would have to do is deduct free throws made from the points. The reason is because Matt, like many 3-and-D players who mostly shoot from outside, doesn't get fouled to shoot free throws.

A better stat to use is effective FG %, which essentially measures how good a shooter you are from 3 and 2 combined. Matt's eFG% of 51% is fine and is actually higher than Grayson's. But Grayson's points per shot is higher because he gets to the free throw line all the time and that boosts his points per shot.

Now again, with all stats, you have to interpret carefully. I would definitely want Grayson shooting more shots than Matt, especially when Grayson is healthy. Just saying that, points per shot isn't a good stat for determining whether Matt should be shooting when wide open. Hopefully that makes sense.

Yes, that makes sense. Thanks for the reasoned reply!

[Indoor66]

I know nothing about math or statistics. Please tell me: if I play for two minutes and score three points, what is my PER or usage, or any other metric, per 40 minutes?

[kAzE]

I know nothing about math or statistics. Please tell me: if I play for two minutes and score three points, what is my PER or usage, or any other metric, per 40 minutes?

Depends on how many shots you took/turnovers you committed/other stats you accumulated and how many possessions took place. However, you did score 60 points per 40 minutes!

[cato]

Trust me, Coach K and staff will be telling Matt Jones to shoot his wide-open shots.

This is the funniest thing to me about fan discussions of whether a player should shoot more or less. Do people really think Coach K just rolls the ball out there and lets the players decide who should jack up shots from the perimeter and when?

As a senior captain, and owner of some nice jewelry from a couple years back, I'm confident that Matt Jones has a pretty darn good idea of what Coach K thinks is a good shot and what Coach K thinks is a bad shot (including a shot passed up that should have been taken).

[English]

This is the funniest thing to me about fan discussions of whether a player should shoot more or less. Do people really think Coach K just rolls the ball out there and lets the players decide who should jack up shots from the perimeter and when?

As a senior captain, and owner of some nice jewelry from a couple years back, I'm confident that Matt Jones has a pretty darn good idea of what Coach K thinks is a good shot and what Coach K thinks is a bad shot (including a shot passed up that should have been taken).

Don't look now, but essentially everything discussed on this and every fan forum is irrelevant to what the coaches and players are actually going to do. Do you think the hours and thousands of posts on players' minutes and rotations are going to make one lick of difference on actual games? No, nothing discussed here has any meaningful impact on who does what. This is an exercise in fandom and enjoying the sport and our team. I suppose it's not "ha ha" funny, but it certainly is funny in a "what do you consider a waste of time or outlet for enjoyment" sort of way.

[Hauerwas]

Seems like whenever Duke makes a deep run in the tourney, K has made a significant tweak to the lineup or style of play in late February. He did it with small ball in '01 and in '15 by bringing Amile off the bench allowing Winslow to have mismatches at the 4 position.

What options does this club realistically have in 'remaking itself' on the last day of February? Is it Jackson at the point? Two bigs? Go zone? I've actually wanted to see us expand the rotation and speed the game up by using our athleticism and length to cause teams problems (more Bolden, more Javin, more Jeter if healthy). Is that even a possibility given how late we are in the season?

I expect K to try something unique tonight to change the trajectory of the season, or at least I hope to see something new.

[CDu]

Seems like whenever Duke makes a deep run in the tourney, K has made a significant tweak to the lineup or style of play in late February. He did it with small ball in '01 and in '15 by bringing Amile off the bench allowing Winslow to have mismatches at the 4 position.

What options does this club realistically have in 'remaking itself' on the last day of February? Is it Jackson at the point? Two bigs? Go zone? I've actually wanted to see us expand the rotation and speed the game up by using our athleticism and length to cause teams problems (more Bolden, more Javin, more Jeter if healthy). Is that even a possibility given how late we are in the season?

I expect K to try something unique tonight to change the trajectory of the season, or at least I hope to see something new.

It is February 28. We are past the point of February tweaks. I think at this point it is a matter of getting our guys as healthy as possible and hoping for the best.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

Not sure why some are considering Grayson regarding senior night as a definite....he was on pace to graduate by now a year ago, but nothing else has been said about his decision to leave/stay.

[KandG]

That stat you are using -- points per shot -- isn't appropriate for measuring whether Matt Jones should be shooting. What you would have to do is deduct free throws made from the points. The reason is because Matt, like many 3-and-D players who mostly shoot from outside, doesn't get fouled to shoot free throws.

A better stat to use is effective FG %, which essentially measures how good a shooter you are from 3 and 2 combined. Matt's eFG% of 51% is fine and is actually higher than Grayson's. But Grayson's points per shot is higher because he gets to the free throw line all the time and that boosts his points per shot.

Now again, with all stats, you have to interpret carefully. I would definitely want Grayson shooting more shots than Matt, especially when Grayson is healthy. Just saying that, points per shot isn't a good stat for determining whether Matt should be shooting when wide open. Hopefully that makes sense.

To clarify, I think the relevant stat here for determining what makes Grayson productive vs Matt is actually True Shooting Percentage (TS%), which incorporates free throws into the offensive efficiency calculation. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) is more useful for parsing out the effect of three point shooting. Good summary here (http://www.thescore.com/nba/news/350333).

As you indicated, Matt is a respectable enough 3 point shooter that he should take the few open looks he's given rather than trying to force it to someone else. But he shouldn't be using more possessions on offense because he's strictly a spot up shooter (with the occasional drive sprinkled in as a surprise).

Matt's TS% is 52.1, which is the lowest among all the guys getting major minutes and is just OK for a lower usage player. In conference, however, it's 55.4, which is better (though aided by the 4 for 7 3 point shooting vs GA Tech), and still the lowest among the major rotation players. As you noted, Matt's never been a foul drawing machine given his limited role on offense, though his fouls drawn/40 and FT rate have regressed considerably from last year.

I'm fine with Matt taking the shots he's been taking. He just needs to see a few more go down. I don't know if it's his ankle or if he's just in a funk, but he doesn't look like a confident shooter lately.

[Billy Dat]

It is February 28. We are past the point of February tweaks. I think at this point it is a matter of getting our guys as healthy as possible and hoping for the best.

Yeah, as I've reflected on both the Syracuse and Miami losses, I am trying to put them in the proper perspective. If we look at the 9 game stretch that began with our Wake road win, we didn't really dominate anyone. We won some close ones and lost 2 close ones. Syracuse and Miami have both been very good at home, we played in Miami without Grayson and could have won. Getting as healthy as possible has to be the goal. Being at home tonight makes this one feel important as holding serve at home has been the calling card of the league all year. I don't think there are any big tweaks to be made. If we are healthy, we won't be more than a couple of point underdog to anyone in the NCAA field.

[gofurman]

Did not see a Vegas line this morning on the game -- I guess the books are waiting to see if Grayson and Amile play or not.

Go Duke!

I was surprised. Duke is a 6.5 point fav ! W Amile and GA iffy. I guess I am always nervous as a fan. If I were a bettor and saw that pre game GA and Amile are held out i would take FSU plus points. If either of our guys are playing I would stay off Tricky for bettors would be are the two injured guys only playing a few minutes for senior night and then out?

[jv001]

In the past five weeks, Duke's losses have been by 2, 3 and 5 points. I don't feel that the team needs major adjustments to be very successful in the last two regular season games, the ACCT and NCAAs. If the coaching staff can identify and have the team work on several improvable facets of the game(shot selection, fast break execution, adding an alley-oop or two to HG/MB, etc.), Duke may be able to "find" 4-6+ extra points per game and win even games in which its overall shooting percentage is pedestrian(~40% overall). I think looking at "who is taking the shots and what kinds of shots are being taken" is a reasonable part of the adjustments that can be made, and still use the same very talented personnel for the same number of minutes. As several posters have pointed out, it seems like defenders are already sagging off of MJ, leading to his typically open looks. I know that he cannot totally stop shooting, as others have pointed out.

One other area of potential improvement may be in securing loose balls under the opponents' basket(after misses/"muffed rebounds" by us/after blocks). I've seen Coach K demonstrably motioning several times to "grab the ball" after such loose balls led to second chance points or continuation of the opponents' possession.
I trust the coaching staff to address and correct these and other areas as the stakes get higher.

Let's go, Duke!

I've noticed the same thing about securing rebounds or loose balls. You can read Coach K's lips and he's saying grab the ball. Well, he might add another word in front of the word ball. Another area that's hurt us when Harry or Marques mishandles a put back or dunk. But I guess that's understandable for freshmen. With all the things that have gone wrong this season, we are a play or two in many of our loses that could have given us a win. When you look at the season like that, it's not as bad as some think. But health from here on out is our main concern. Number one, we need Grayson at or near 100% and number two, we need for Amile to play a good 20-25 minutes like he did before the injury. We have Giles and Bolden that can help in his absence. I'm not giving up on this season because we have the players(if healthy) and our great coach. GoDuke!

[Tripping William]

I've noticed the same thing about securing rebounds or loose balls. You can read Coach K's lips and he's saying grab the ball. Well, he might add another word in front of the word ball. Another area that's hurt us when Harry or Marques mishandles a put back or dunk. But I guess that's understandable for freshmen. With all the things that have gone wrong this season, we are a play or two in many of our loses that could have given us a win. When you look at the season like that, it's not as bad as some think. But health from here on out is our main concern. Number one, we need Grayson at or near 100% and number two, we need for Amile to play a good 20-25 minutes like he did before the injury. We have Giles and Bolden that can help in his absence. I'm not giving up on this season because we have the players(if healthy) and our great coach. GoDuke!

Yeah, I've read the lips, too, and there is very clearly a fairly guttural, two-syllable adjective (one of K's favorites, BTW) between "the" and "ball" in most of those instances. To add emphasis, in an imploring fashion, to the need to better-secure the rebound. :o

[kAzE]

Not sure why some are considering Grayson regarding senior night as a definite...he was on pace to graduate by now a year ago, but nothing else has been said about his decision to leave/stay.

Regardless . . . he's not a senior, so I doubt he will be honored like Matt, Amile, and Nick will be. There probably won't be anything special planned for Jayson Tatum, either, even though he will almost certainly be playing his final game on Coach K Court tonight. It's "senior" night after all, not "everyone who may or may not be leaving the team after this season" night.

[jv001]

Regardless . . . he's not a senior, so I doubt he will be honored like Matt, Amile, and Nick will be. There probably won't be anything special planned for Jayson Tatum, either, even though he will almost certainly be playing his final game on Coach K Court tonight. It's "senior" night after all, not "everyone who may or may not be leaving the team after this season" night.

But I guess we could consider Grayson a senior academically? It's going to be special night for Amile, Matt and Nick in any regards. GoDuke!

[pfrduke]

Regardless . . . he's not a senior, so I doubt he will be honored like Matt, Amile, and Nick will be. There probably won't be anything special planned for Jayson Tatum, either, even though he will almost certainly be playing his final game on Coach K Court tonight. It's "senior" night after all, not "everyone who may or may not be leaving the team after this season" night.

My (admittedly fuzzy) recollection is that we recognized Jason Williams at senior night in 2002, when it was known that he was on a plan to graduate and depart in three years. That may not be right. But I think the graduation piece of it is what is leading people to wonder whether Grayson may be recognized.

[Doria]

I was surprised. Duke is a 6.5 point fav ! W Amile and GA iffy. I guess I am always nervous as a fan. If I were a bettor and saw that pre game GA and Amile are held out i would take FSU plus points. If either of our guys are playing I would stay off Tricky for bettors would be are the two injured guys only playing a few minutes for senior night and then out?

That line... I mean, jeez, I hope it's an accurate reflection of our chances, but if I were a betting person, I'd sure be tempted there.

Regarding February tweaks, I think if we can get our full lineup reasonably healthy and integrated, that'd be enough of a tweak, since it's been rarely seen this season.

[Spanarkel]

This is the funniest thing to me about fan discussions of whether a player should shoot more or less. Do people really think Coach K just rolls the ball out there and lets the players decide who should jack up shots from the perimeter and when?

As a senior captain, and owner of some nice jewelry from a couple years back, I'm confident that Matt Jones has a pretty darn good idea of what Coach K thinks is a good shot and what Coach K thinks is a bad shot (including a shot passed up that should have been taken).

Would you apply the same logic to the "home run" in-bounds pass for a layup with Duke down by 3 with 0:05 to play against Miami last Saturday?

[cato]

Would you apply the same logic to the "home run" in-bounds pass for a layup with Duke down by 3 with 0:05 to play against Miami last Saturday?

Most certainly. I am confident that Matt Jones knows what the coaching staff would like him to do in that situation.

You aren't?

[WHOneedsSOX]

Regardless . . . he's not a senior, so I doubt he will be honored like Matt, Amile, and Nick will be. There probably won't be anything special planned for Jayson Tatum, either, even though he will almost certainly be playing his final game on Coach K Court tonight. It's "senior" night after all, not "everyone who may or may not be leaving the team after this season" night.

Is there any chance Allen stays? His draft stock is really, really low. Haven't seen him go in the first round in any mock draft.

[CDu]

Most certainly. I am confident that Matt Jones knows what the coaching staff would like him to do in that situation.

You aren't?

Exactly. Getting beaten on a play is different from not knowing what one is supposed to do.

I'm quite confident that Jones knows what the coaching staff wants him to do as much as anyone on the team besides Amile Jefferson. That's what comes with four years of experience in the program. And that experience is why Coach K entrusts Jones with the role of defending the opponent's best perimeter player. No matter who that player is.

Doesn't mean that things will always work out.

In the "down 3 with 5 seconds left" situation, we had to get a steal. There wasn't a realistic scenario in which we could foul and hope to tie, as Miami was in the double bonus. The only chance we had to win was to steal the inbounds pass. So Jones fronted the player to prevent an easy direct in-bounds. Unfortunately, Miami drew up a home-run play, so fronting the player put Jones at a disadvantage. But regardless, if a Miami player was able to receive the inbounds pass, we were going to lose the game. It doesn't matter whether it was a homerun play or a simple hand-off inbounds.

[gam7]

Exactly. Getting beaten on a play is different from not knowing what one is supposed to do.

I'm quite confident that Jones knows what the coaching staff wants him to do as much as anyone on the team besides Amile Jefferson. That's what comes with four years of experience in the program. And that experience is why Coach K entrusts Jones with the role of defending the opponent's best perimeter player. No matter who that player is.

Doesn't mean that things will always work out.

In the "down 3 with 5 seconds left" situation, we had to get a steal. There wasn't a realistic scenario in which we could foul and hope to tie, as Miami was in the double bonus. The only chance we had to win was to steal the inbounds pass. So Jones fronted the player to prevent an easy direct in-bounds. Unfortunately, Miami drew up a home-run play, so fronting the player put Jones at a disadvantage. But regardless, if a Miami player was able to receive the inbounds pass, we were going to lose the game. It doesn't matter whether it was a homerun play or a simple hand-off inbounds.

The home-run pass is a great call in that situation because even if the pass is intercepted, the intercepting player is probably sprinting in the wrong direction with 5 seconds left. And even if the offensive player fouls the defensive player, it's a foul-up-three scenario...

[Troublemaker]

In the "down 3 with 5 seconds left" situation, we had to get a steal. There wasn't a realistic scenario in which we could foul and hope to tie, as Miami was in the double bonus. The only chance we had to win was to steal the inbounds pass. So Jones fronted the player to prevent an easy direct in-bounds. Unfortunately, Miami drew up a home-run play, so fronting the player put Jones at a disadvantage. But regardless, if a Miami player was able to receive the inbounds pass, we were going to lose the game. It doesn't matter whether it was a homerun play or a simple hand-off inbounds.

Exactly. What Duke had to do was avoid being in a "down 3 with 5 secs left and other team has the ball" situation. They could do that by playing better offense earlier in the game, for example.

But in that situation, Duke had to go for broke. In football terms, it was like sending a full house blitz because you needed to get the ball from the QB immediately. That will leave you vulnerable to getting beat deep.

But you have to do it. Anybody criticizing that play isn't understanding risk/reward. Doesn't matter whether you get beat by 5 or by 3 -- you're beat. Play better offense and avoid that situation.

[kAzE]

Is there any chance Allen stays? His draft stock is really, really low. Haven't seen him go in the first round in any mock draft.

I've been in the "Grayson is gone for sure" camp for a long time, but it's pretty hard looking at where he is currently on draft boards and not wonder what he's thinking.

Still, if he gets healthy and performs up to expectations in the NCAA tournament, I think he will give NBA scouts and GMs enough assurance that last year was no fluke. I think he's also going to help himself tremendously at the NBA combine/individual workouts, where his strength, athleticism, and shooting touch is sure to pad his draft stock.

This all depends on him getting healthy of course, but there is precedence for Duke players who were not regarded as highly prior to a draft shooting up draft boards after impressive workouts (Miles Plumlee).

[Spanarkel]

Exactly. What Duke had to do was avoid being in a "down 3 with 5 secs left and other team has the ball" situation. They could do that by playing better offense earlier in the game, for example.

But in that situation, Duke had to go for broke. In football terms, it was like sending a full house blitz because you needed to get the ball from the QB immediately. That will leave you vulnerable to getting beat deep.

But you have to do it. Anybody criticizing that play isn't understanding risk/reward. Doesn't matter whether you get beat by 5 or by 3 -- you're beat. Play better offense and avoid that situation.

Disagree. If you get beat on the homerun ball by overplaying, you have a 0% chance to win. If the ball is inbounded and an immediate attempt to steal the ball is unsuccessful, then you quickly foul the other team's worst foul shooter(or one who may be known to falter in end-of-game situations). At the time of Miami's inbounding the ball, Murphy(.60 FT)/Newton(.71)/Lawrence(.74)/Brown(who caught the homerun ball/.74), and Reed(.83)were in the game. The probability that Murphy would miss two free throws in a row is 16%, and about 9% for Newton's missing two FTs in a row(and probably somewhat higher given the pressure situation/fatigue factor). If 1-2 seconds elapse until the foul is called, you would have 3-4 seconds to get off a shot(admittedly difficult) from hopefully inside the half-court line.
Anyone who counters that the foul would lead Miami's getting the 2 FTs(due to the bonus+ in effect)and possession of the ball hasn't watched much college ball because an intentional foul is very infrequently called in this situation.
I agree it's best not to be in that position in the first place...

[Utley]

Any update on the starting line-up? Isn't there normally a tweet sometime around now?

[devildeac]

Any update on the starting line-up? Isn't there normally a tweet sometime around now?

From Steve Wiseman:

https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC

Summary: Allen and Amile warming up.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5ybLS_UwAAiH8i.jpg

[devildeac]

Any update on the starting line-up? Isn't there normally a tweet sometime around now?

Duke MBB twitter also thinks Allen and Amile play tonight. I guess based on the fact they're both warming up.

https://twitter.com/dukebasketball

[MrPoon]

Really want this win tonight. Let's put the FU in FSU.
MrPoon's call: 8 PT win good guys.
Amile plays well, Giles plays solid with 8 rbs. 8 pts. Bolden makes us smile (in a good way) three times.
Tatum leading scorer.

Take it to the bank backed by the full faith and credit of...

[Rich]

Duke MBB twitter also thinks Allen and Amile play tonight. I guess based on the fact they're both warming up.

https://twitter.com/dukebasketball

Starters for Duke—Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum, Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson. Grayson Allen not starting

https://twitter.com/dukebasketball

[Troublemaker]

Amile in starting lineup, but no Grayson.

Against FSU's constant pressure, we would need Grayson.

Coach K on pregame radio says Grayson will play off the bench.

[Troublemaker]

Disagree. If you get beat on the homerun ball by overplaying, you have a 0% chance to win. If the ball is inbounded and an immediate attempt to steal the ball is unsuccessful, then you quickly foul the other team's worst foul shooter(or one who may be known to falter in end-of-game situations). At the time of Miami's inbounding the ball, Murphy(.60 FT)/Newton(.71)/Lawrence(.74)/Brown(who caught the homerun ball/.74), and Reed(.83)were in the game. The probability that Murphy would miss two free throws in a row is 16%, and about 9% for Newton's missing two FTs in a row(and probably somewhat higher given the pressure situation/fatigue factor). If 1-2 seconds elapse until the foul is called, you would have 3-4 seconds to get off a shot(admittedly difficult) from hopefully inside the half-court line.
Anyone who counters that the foul would lead Miami's getting the 2 FTs(due to the bonus+ in effect)and possession of the ball hasn't watched much college ball because an intentional foul is very infrequently called in this situation.
I agree it's best not to be in that position in the first place...

Miami didn't have a 100% chance of doing what they did.

I could probably argue with you about a couple of other things in your post, but I don't think anybody is interested in hearing it.

Tipoff for Senior Night is soon. Enjoy the game, my friend.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[Troublemaker]

Coach K on pregame radio says Grayson will play off the bench.

Reposting the above news since it's important.

We'll have everybody available. Let's get some revenge.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Let's get a win. Let's play some defense. Play hard. GO AND BE DUKE !!

[duketaylor]

Duke now -7 and 156.5, fwiw.

[NM Duke Fan]

Amile in starting lineup, but no Grayson.

Against FSU's constant pressure, we would need Grayson.

Coach K on pregame radio says Grayson will play off the bench.

I can see a group of grumpy older cautious fans like me singing:

"Don't play Grayson." Clap, Clap. Clap, Clap, Clap!

[indy1duke]

Who are these terrible refs who like a 1 trick pony only call traveling?

[kmspeaks]

I'm really glad NCAA officials were told to place an emphasis on making defenders keep their hands off ball handlers.

[60sDukie]

Does Vitale never shut up?

[Indoor66]

Does Vitale never shut up?

Nevah!🤔😂😎

[downeastdad]

They're big, but thankfully can't hit bunnies. But why are we driving at the 7'4" guy?

[kmspeaks]

Does Vitale never shut up?

Nope, he's learned to inhale and speak at the same time so he doesn't have to stop for a breath.

[Pghdukie]

Is Mo Bamba in attendance ? If so, I hope he enjoys everything Duke has to offer !

[pfrduke]

Nope, he's learned to inhale and speak at the same time so he doesn't have to stop for a breath.

At least he's watching the game and not looking for pictures of Frank Sinatra on his phone. Oh, wait...

[rsvman]

Really dumb to throw the ball away after the steal with about 30 seconds to go in the half. We had s 13-point lead and could've taken the last shot so that thirteen would've been the minimum lead.
Gotta think. Time and situation.

Other than that, good half. Forging a defensive identity.

[jv001]

Really dumb to throw the ball away after the steal with about 30 seconds to go in the half. We had s 13-point lead and could've taken the last shot so that thirteen would've been the minimum lead.
Gotta think. Time and situation.

Other than that, good half. Forging a defensive identity.

It could have been worse with Frank's pass to the FSU player on the baseline. Glad the clock ran out. But we played very good defense the first half. I just hope the officials don't get whistle happy in the 2nd half. GoDuke!

[pfrduke]

It could have been worse with Frank's pass to the FSU player on the baseline. Glad the clock ran out. But we played very good defense the first half. I just hope the officials don't get whistle happy in the 2nd half. GoDuke!

We took a calculated risk that their big men would not be able to punish us if we were slow to rotate back to them. It allowed us to pressure the guards better and disrupt their offense. I like the strategy - make Michael Ojo, Jarquez Smith, and Christ Koumadje beat us and focus on shutting down the guys who actually have talent.

[duketaylor]

Good first half even if we didn't score much. Limited Amile and GA. Amile did look like he had a lift in his step, i.e. his foot's better, which is great news!!

Frank having a night!!!

[downeastdad]

Jackson is a MAN tonight!!!

[jv001]

I just hope no one brings up Frank Sinatra. I can't take Dickie V rambling on and on about how he knew Sinatra. Talk about the game Vickie and please don't predict Josh Jackson from uncheat is going to be ALL ACC. GoDuke!

[Tripping William]

Frankie goes to Hollywood.....

[Doria]

Best and, so far, most consistent game by Jackson so far. Really nice to see him stepping up, since we're still banged up a bit.

[arnie]

Jackson is a MAN tonight!!!

Sensational athlete with a great future at Duke. But he's no Nate Britt.😎

[WVDUKEFAN]

It's the Frank Jackson show!!

[AtlBluRew]

Is it the ESPN production crew that's high, or is it me? And if it's me, how did that happen? These camera angles and movements are confusing me!

[WVDUKEFAN]

I just hope no one brings up Frank Sinatra. I can't take Dickie V rambling on and on about how he knew Sinatra. Talk about the game Vickie and please don't predict Josh Jackson from uncheat is going to be ALL ACC. GoDuke!

Lol. You missed it. They already had that conversation.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I think the transition defense looks better tonight. Thoughts?

[rsvman]

Jackson is impressing Dickie V, and perhaps Leonard Hamilton, too, lol.

[indy1duke]

Serious question: do we scout the refs?

[jipops]

Way too much time left

[jwillfan]

I think the transition defense looks better tonight. Thoughts?

You jinxed us. We've let up loads of coast to coast layups since you posted that.

[pfrduke]

I think the transition defense looks better tonight. Thoughts?

Not really. For some reason, we play passively in transition, letting guys build up a big runway to the basket. Even when we're back numbers-wise, we're not really back in a way that prevents easy scoring opportunities.

[utahdevil]

Boy that sure liked a trip.....

[jipops]

I see a frustrating ending coming

[downeastdad]

We'd be in deep doodoo if they could make a bunny.

[AtlBluRew]

Is it the ESPN production crew that's high, or is it me? And if it's me, how did that happen? These camera angles and movements are confusing me!

Oops, I was watching the Above the Rim coverage,lol

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Need to tighten up. This isn't over.

[rsvman]

Is you try to run an offense against us, our D is good.

But if you just drive straight to the hoop on every possession, without any semblance of an offense, you will score a ton of points.

We have got to find a way to stop that.