MBB: Miami 55, Duke 50 Post Game Thread

[devil84]

Put your post game thoughts here. Keep it civil, please.

[Kfanarmy]

Coach can't figure Miami out. What a hot mess of an offense...rediculous. No designed inbounds play. Once again several complete mental lapses on d. Staff has gotten lazy relying on talent only on offense.

[Furniture]

A couple of shots don't rim out and we win....

[rsvman]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

[uh_no]

1) one of the better defensive performances of the year...will be looked over due to the massive lack of offense
2) shows how important grayson is in getting other people good looks, even when he's not hitting himself.
3) jesus....hero ball makes me sick. seems like tatum's hot streak from 3 went to his head....matt should know better, jackson and kennard with some poor decisions as well

[Saratoga2]

Put your post game thoughts here. Keep it civil, please.

A game played hard and a defensive struggle. Our two big scorers were closely guarded and had inefficient nights while Jackson scored pretty well. Giles and Bolden certainly worked hard out there and were blocking shots and rebounding but not scoring. Our lack of a ball handling point guard continues to haunt us as we made a few tough turnovers, some of which were avoidable and caused by overaggressive runs into the teeth of the defense. We have had other players do similar things in the past.

More after dinner.

[Furniture]

We didn't shoot to the mean...














A. Jefferson (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/61586/amile-jefferson)F
--
2-3
0-0
0-2
0
5
5
0
0
0
3
3
4


J. Tatum (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4065648/jayson-tatum)F
--
4-16
0-7
0-0
2
5
7
2
1
1
0
0
8


H. Giles (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4065649/harry-giles)F
--
1-4
0-0
0-2
5
3
8
0
1
0
1
1
2


M. Jones (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/66563/matt-jones)G
--
2-9
0-3
0-0
3
0
3
3
1
0
2
2
4


L. Kennard (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/3913174/luke-kennard)G
--
6-20
2-6
2-3
1
5
6
1
2
1
3
1
16


BENCH
MIN
FG
3PT
FT
OREB
DREB
REB
AST
STL
BLK
TO
PF
PTS


M. Bolden (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4065652/marques-bolden)C
--
0-3
0-0
0-0
2
2
4
0
0
3
0
2
0


F. Jackson (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4065651/frank-jackson)G
--
6-11
3-5
1-2
1
5
6
3
1
0
3
2
16


TEAM

21-66
5-21
3-9
20

[downeastdad]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

Maybe make a layup or a free throw?

[Troublemaker]

This game was an investment for the future. We got the young bigs plenty of minutes. We rested an injured Grayson (and I wouldn't mind if he sat again on Tuesday). We determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4. And we showed improvement on defense, which was good for the most part.

I'm more hopeful for the future than after the win against WFU or the loss at Syracuse, and I hope Coach continues to give Bolden and Giles minutes.

[WVDUKEFAN]

A couple of shots don't rim out and we win...

Great point. We had soooo many roll around the rim. Sometimes they just don't go down.

[Brockt10]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but how about the other McDonald's all Americans that were playing

[dyedwab]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

This team makes too many unforced errors this in the season. Every 3-pointer seemed like it was a step beyond where it should have been taken from. Passing wasn't good. Taking good shots?No.

This team's decision-making, even more than the injuries, is why it is underperforming it's talent.

[Devilwin]

Well, the offense looks totally out of sync. Too many turnovers by normally dependable players. And Luke shot poorly as well, totally unlike him. We are better than this. We will get better, If I know K.

[uh_no]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

it would be nice if one of our 5 star big men could produce anything. that's the biggest disappointment for me this year, above even the defense....don't know if it's the coaching, the injuries, the players....but would have expected a tad more.

that said, the defense looked alright, and clearly they've made progress. I don't think miami exploited every breakdown, though.

[heyman25]

Unless there is a massive turnaround in team basketball, March sadness instead of March madness.

[stals]

[QUOTE=Saratoga2;954933]A game played hard and a defensive struggle. Our two big scorers were closely guarded and had inefficient nights while Jackson scored pretty well. Giles and Bolden certainly worked hard out there and were blocking shots and rebounding but not scoring. Our lack of a ball handling point guard continues to haunt us as we made a few tough turnovers, some of which were avoidable and caused by overaggressive runs into the teeth of the defense. We have had other players do similar things in the past.

More after dinner.

Yep. We don't have a point guard. Achilles heel.

[kshepinthehouse]

it would be nice if one of our 5 star big men could produce anything. that's the biggest disappointment for me this year, above even the defense...don't know if it's the coaching, the injuries, the players...but would have expected a tad more.

that said, the defense looked alright, and clearly they've made progress. I don't think miami exploited every breakdown, though.

Agreed. We just get very few easy baskets. If our bigs played better we could get around 20 points in the paint from them. It's tough when they hardly score down low with a big.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I thought Miami smothered our guards. Their interior defense was pretty good as well.

[gocanes0506]

Hero ball in the last 3 minutes of the game killed the team.

Definitely cost the Cuse and State games. Any form of O in the last 3 minutes might have led to a different outcome. Am I missing any?

[hallcity]

Why did Amile only play 21 minutes?

[Brockt10]

Hero ball in the last 3 minutes of the game killed the team.

Definitely cost the Cuse and State games. Any form if O in the last 3 minutes might have lef to a different outcome. Am I missing any?

Perfect

[Troublemaker]

Another way to look at it is that if you were told before the game that Duke would shoot 32% (24% from three), you might've guessed that Duke would be blown out by Miami like UNC was. But we hung in there with defense and rebounding, which wouldn't have seemed possible for this team in recent games.

[Duke76]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

anybody think that basketball was unusual...i swear it was an old scuffed up ball, one our boys were not familiar with shooting...Miami probably uses it all the team...anybody else notice...least its worth discussing vs how crappy we played

[uh_no]

I thought Miami smothered our guards. Their interior defense was pretty good as well.

yeah....that's how the game was being called, and they took advantage of it. we didn't adjust.

No, the reffing style didn't really suit us, and no I don't really like that as much, but that doesn't change the fact that sometimes games are called like that, AND WE HAVE TO LEARN TO ADJUST!

dribble-dribble-dribble-jack-a-three (my FAVORITE play) is not the right way to cope with that. would have liked to see us go to amile a bit more and let him play physical. get tatum into the lane a bit more (he settled for WAY too many jumpers today) which, due to the overcommit on defense, should open up some shooters.

[heyman25]

Any team in the NCAA can get 6 in a row in post season play. I hope all our 8 playing members of the team will work extra hours on shooting. Jones missed every wide open shot today.Bolden and Giles need to score at the rim. Truly for late February we are not playing winning basketball. Allen was a liability the last 4 games, so no excuses.

[ChillinDuke]

Another tournament sealing win for a team playing at home. We have issues this year, I'm not sure they are as damning as some make them out to be. But I'll admit they exist and can cause us to lose games.

That said, we have horses and can win games against good teams. We will be in it, and at the end of the day I'm not sure you can ever ask for anything more in any given year.

- Chillin

[Furniture]

Agreed. We just get very few easy baskets. If our bigs played better we could get around 20 points in the paint from them. It's tough when they hardly score down low with a big.

On the other hand are the guards looking for them? I often see Harry calling for the ball and he doesn't get it....

[uh_no]

Allen was a liability the last 4 games, so no excuses.

I think you're underselling how important allen is to this team's offense. This was a historically bad duke offensive performance in a stretch where duke has been playing some of the best offense in the country. Allen being on the bench is no coincidence.

Allen gets other people open shots, even when he's not hitting himself.

[stals]

Reason is no point guard.

[Duke76]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but how about the other McDonald's all Americans that were playing

bet the Brown kid who is a freshman probably wasn't even top 50 or worse....

[Brockt10]

anybody think that basketball was unusual...i swear it was an old scuffed up ball, one our boys were not familiar with shooting...Miami probably uses it all the team...anybody else notice...least its worth discussing vs how crappy we played

Not sure if this was in jest but I would credited t the sloppy ball handling, missed layups, hero ball, and poor shooting etc. before the actual ball. We honestly just looked horrible.

[kshepinthehouse]

On the other hand are the guards looking for them? I often see Harry calling for the ball and he doesn't get it...

Even when they got offensive rebounds they had a hard time converting.

[WVDUKEFAN]

On the other hand are the guards looking for them? I often see Harry calling for the ball and he doesn't get it...

I see it as well. They are guilty of not dumping off to the bigs. On one of the first couple of plays of the game, Giles was open during a drive, but kennard opted for the shot and missed.

[Duke76]

Not sure if this was in jest but I would credited t the sloppy ball handling, missed layups, hero ball, and poor shooting etc. before the actual ball. We honestly just looked horrible.

no I am serious about it,,,they shoot with it all the time, we don't....I don't know it just looked unusual to me, almost like a playground outdoor ball

realm of possibilities,,,but no excuses for poor execution etc which we had in spades

[BlueDevilBrowns]

We lost because Kennard, Tatum, and Jones shot a combined 2-16 from three.

Also, our perimeter defense was horrendous and the help defense was slow.

I actually saw signs of encouragement out of the play of Giles and Bolden today and we outrebounded Miami by 4.

This loss isn't on our bigs.

[Troublemaker]

Why did Amile only play 21 minutes?

We invested in the young bigs. We're not winning anything with an injured, undersized Amile playing 35+ min at center. So, good decision. Plus, I don't think Amile was effective in this game anyway.

[subzero02]

anybody think that basketball was unusual...i swear it was an old scuffed up ball, one our boys were not familiar with shooting...Miami probably uses it all the team...anybody else notice...least its worth discussing vs how crappy we played
all
I noticed some very tight rims for Jones and Kennard in particular. The home team selects the brand of the game ball. I dont know what brand Miami uses. I am not even sure what brand we use in Cameron. I believe the Badgers use "the rock".

[Rich]

This game was an investment for the future. We got the young bigs plenty of minutes. We rested an injured Grayson (and I wouldn't mind if he sat again on Tuesday). We determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4. And we showed improvement on defense, which was good for the most part.

I'm more hopeful for the future than after the win against WFU or the loss at Syracuse, and I hope Coach continues to give Bolden and Giles minutes.

Love your optimism...wish I could share it. Between the Syracuse game (which I attended) and this game I just don't see it coming together. Unbelievably frustrated for our guys.

Not being snarky, just curious why you feel this game determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4.

[DevilFalcon]

I completely disagree with the statement dbr makes saying the right team won. We didnt play great, but Miami only won because we missed about 30 points on shots that would normally fall.

1. Beat the CHeats.
2. Win the ACC tournament.
3. Win the NCAA tournament.

[Spanarkel]

anybody think that basketball was unusual...i swear it was an old scuffed up ball, one our boys were not familiar with shooting...Miami probably uses it all the team...anybody else notice...least its worth discussing vs how crappy we played

Yes, when Tatum's shot got wedged between the rim/backboard, the ball did look well worn to me. I couldn't even see the brand(usually easy to pick out even on TV).

[smythe13]

bet the Brown kid who is a freshman probably wasn't even top 50 or worse...

Brown was a top 30 recruit and a Jordan brand all american.

[NM Duke Fan]

Another way to look at it is that if you were told before the game that Duke would shoot 32% (24% from three), you might've guessed that Duke would be blown out by Miami like UNC was. But we hung in there with defense and rebounding, which wouldn't have seemed possible for this team in recent games.

That is also the way I was looking at the game. With Luke and Jason unable to hit their shots much of the game, it was a wonder it was not worse. Part of that was due to Frank's excelent offense for stretches, and the defense and rebounding overall I thought was better than average for this team, and showed at least some progress. So the game did not bother me so much, bad shooting games by two of the leading scorers and yet kept it pretty close.

[BigZ]

When is the last time Duke did anything in the tournament when they weren't a 1 seed?

[Troublemaker]

Not being snarky, just curious why you feel this game determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4.

The lack of spacing killed us with two bigs in. We made our run (and the turnovers stopped for the most part) when the offense spread out with Tatum at the 4.

[Bob Green]

We rested an injured Grayson (and I wouldn't mind if he sat again on Tuesday)...and I hope Coach continues to give Bolden and Giles minutes.

I agree 100 percent. The focus has to be on mid-March and beyond now. A healthy Grayson Allen is worth his weight in gold!

We lost today because our offense was not clicking which put a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense and even though the defense responded we couldn't get a basket or two at the end when we absolutely had to have them.

[BigZ]

I blame low energy Jeb for the loss

[heyman25]

We invested in the young bigs. We're not winning anything with an injured, undersized Amile playing 35+ min at center. So, good decision. Plus, I don't think Amile was effective in this game anyway.
Jefferson and Jones play reasonable defense, but they need to practice shooting. Missing too many shots that they should make.To me this was a critical character game and we failed.Not because Miami was so fantastic either. Our execution was awful.I give them credit for staying in the game. We lost because in general played poor basketball.

[downeastdad]

bet the Brown kid who is a freshman probably wasn't even top 50 or worse...

Sporting News had him at 29. We sure made him look good.

[NM Duke Fan]

The lack of spacing killed us with two bigs in. We made our run (and the turnovers stopped for the most part) when the offense spread out with Tatum at the 4.

I noticed the shift immediately as well. Tatum was not in the flow until he was back into more of his usual role. And the team played better offense then too.

[Rich]

If anyone has a link to K's press conference, please share it. I'm interested in hearing his thoughts on the game.

[jv001]

no I am serious about it,,,they shoot with it all the time, we don't...I don't know it just looked unusual to me, almost like a playground outdoor ball

realm of possibilities,,,but no excuses for poor execution etc which we had in spades

I think Miami's defense had more to do with our poor shooting than some old scuffed up ball. But you must watch them play or practice with it. I agree our perimeter players don't get the ball down low when our bigs are open.
Our guys were out of synch today. The play that really had me scratching my head was early in the 2nd half. Matt tries to throw a pass to an open Giles and it looked like it hit near the top of the backboard. There were so many plays that one of our bigs went to try and block a shot and no one rotated over. The result an offensive rebound and put back. But the offense cost us this game. Too many run outs off our turnovers. I guess this was Luke's worst game of the season. He really needs his back court mate healthy and back on the court. He has been known to get the ball to an open teammate. GoDuke!

[heyman25]

Yes, when Tatum's shot got wedged between the rim/backboard, the ball did look well worn to me. I couldn't even see the brand(usually easy to pick out even on TV).Time to stop commenting on the basketball. Duke lost because we played with no sense of urgency. Miami was hungrier and it showed. They are not that good , but Duke helped them win.

[Bob Green]

bet the Brown kid who is a freshman probably wasn't even top 50 or worse...

Bruce Brown was 26:

https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/2016-final

[wavedukefan70s]

D was better .offense was a fifty pound bag of wtf at times.smh.its beer thirty amigos.

[Furniture]

Time to stop commenting on the basketball. Duke lost because we played with no sense of urgency. Miami was hungrier and it showed. They are not that good , but Duke helped them win.

If you don't score you don't win....

[dukelifer]

I agree 100 percent. The focus has to be on mid-March and beyond now. A healthy Grayson Allen is worth his weight in gold!

We lost today because our offense was not clicking which put a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense and even though the defense responded we couldn't get a basket or two at the end when we absolutely had to have them.

At this point it is so hard to know what this team will be in March. This game was winnable and guys did not step up. Unlike Syracuse, Miami did not play out of their heads. This is always the kind of game where a senior needs to lead the way. That did not happen. This was a must win for the team and they did not treat it that way or they failed in critical moments. Now there is a good chance of losing the next 2 if not 3 going into the NCAAs. That is not good. Momentum has always mattered for Duke teams. From here on out - this team needs to play with the urgency of lose and go home. This was the worst loss of the season- no question.

[bluenorth]

I see it as well. They are guilty of not dumping off to the bigs. On one of the first couple of plays of the game, Giles was open during a drive, but kennard opted for the shot and missed.

Could this be due to a lack of confidence in the ability of the young bigs to finish? Most players have a go-to move, but I've yet to see anything like that from Giles or Bolden, other than follow-up dunks.

[Chicago 1995]

This game was an investment for the future. We got the young bigs plenty of minutes. We rested an injured Grayson (and I wouldn't mind if he sat again on Tuesday). We determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4. And we showed improvement on defense, which was good for the most part.

I'm more hopeful for the future than after the win against WFU or the loss at Syracuse, and I hope Coach continues to give Bolden and Giles minutes.

You don't make "investments for the future" in late February. You make those investments 8 weeks ago.

We are who we are now, and that team's pretty fragile with a high ceiling, but little chance of hitting it against really elite competition.

[Olympic Fan]

When is the last time Duke did anything in the tournament when they weren't a 1 seed?

Well, the 1991 team won the national title as a No. 2 seed.

The other four champs were all No. 1 seeds.

Duke also reach the Final Four as a No. 2 seed in 1988 and 1989 and 1994.

Duke reached the Final Four (and the title game) as a No. 3 seed in 1990.

That's about it. Duke has reached the Sweet 16 a few times as a lower seed, but nothing beyond that.

[jv001]

We invested in the young bigs. We're not winning anything with an injured, undersized Amile playing 35+ min at center. So, good decision. Plus, I don't think Amile was effective in this game anyway.

I agree 100% about investing in our freshmen front court players and agree about Amile. He just wasn't even close to being his self. I believe Luke let his shooting woes affect his overall play. He was late on rotating and forced shots you don't ordinarily see from him. Jayson went back to his fall-away shot too much. He's such a good shooter when he steps into his shot. I thought Harry and Marques played very well and certainly didn't lose the game. It was lost on our poor shooting, from the field and the FT line. I pray that Grayson get's well, because we won't get very far without him being at or near 100%. GoDuke!

[Spanarkel]

Using the ESPN play-by-play log, I didn't see any activity of any kind(shots/rebounds/fouls/TOs) for Amile between about 15 minutes of the second half and 0:26 of the second half. Was he really out of the game for this long? (I did watch the game on TV btw).

[KandG]

No Grayson Allen, Amile barely plays in the second half...and we still could have won this game.

Officials really let the teams play (this might have been the most physical game I've seen us play all year), and Luke and Jayson's play really suffered as a result. Even when Jayson got hot for a stretch, thought his shots were very, very tough shots. Luke kept trying to draw fouls with no luck and Miami (allowing for the loose whistle) defended him probably the best of any team this year.

Whatever the limitations of Grayson's playmaking, his absence really showed in the quality of shots we had. Nothing came easy. Jayson's threes were almost all standstill 3s with little rhythm and nothing looked good coming off his hand. Matt's still struggling mightily with his shot. Only Frank seemed to have it going, and you have to take the good with the bad with his aggressiveness (only had 3 turnovers, seemed like much more). A ton of heads down isolation play...even Luke, who gets praised for his vision, had pocket passes to bigs that he bypassed in favor of forcing it up against Miami's tough interior.

Agree with those who feel that the two big lineup is a mixed bag for our offense, especially if we can't use the threat of our perimeter scoring to free up the bigs more often for quick hit lobs and layups. It doesn't help that bringing Amile high has risks given how turnover prone he can be. That botched lob pass by Matt to Harry at the start of the second half was painful.

This was our fourth straight stellar defensive effort on the road in a first half: (points allowed the last 4 road games in the first half -- 25, 25, 25, 22). But yet again, another run spanning the very end of the first half and the beginning of the second put us on our heels (17-7). Nice run for us to come back, but from Frank's missed FT to Jayson's missed layup, we could never get the break to give us a lead and allow us to start playing ahead instead of from behind.

Felt like with a game this ugly, the more opportunistic team would win out. At one point, announcing team said Miami had 16 points off our first 10 turnovers, while we had only 9 points off our first 18 offensive rebounds.

I liked that Harry and Marques got more burn and that our defense didn't suffer too badly, but some of that was Miami's ineptitude outside of the beginning of the second half. Screens, dribble penetration and a lot of off ball movement still give us problems, though there were positive signs today.

This felt like the kind of game we could face in the first weekend of the tournament that could send us home early...unfavorable whistle, shots not falling, inexperience rearing its head in crucial moments. Get well fast, Grayson and Amile.

[jv001]

Could this be due to a lack of confidence in the ability of the young bigs to finish? Most players have a go-to move, but I've yet to see anything like that from Giles or Bolden, other than follow-up dunks.

I would call a layup or dunk a pretty good move on a dump off. No, I don't think either has perfected a good low post move. But that could be because they were injured and missed valuable practice time. Oh, yeh, they're freshmen as well. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

No Grayson...

...Luke cold, Tatum cold.

Anyone who thinks the above two facts are unrelated are (IMO) mistaken.


Why did Amile only play 21 minutes?

Wasn't this what everyone asked for? Sit Grayson, limit Amile's minutes, that's the requests I kept seeing the last few days. Well, this is what we get.

I wasn't pleased with either Luke's or Jayson's shot selection (or, to a lesser extent, Matt's), but I think that was largely because Grayson wasn't in the game. A lot of people severely underestimate Grayson's value, even when he can't jump or cut or shoot.

On the bright side (and again what so many people were asking for), Frank played a good overall game in 29 minutes, Marques played pretty good defense in 14 minutes, and Harry rebounded well in 19 minutes.

I'm not worried about the team, but I am beginning to be concerned about our potential seed.

[heyman25]

Using the ESPN play-by-play log, I didn't see any activity of any kind(shots/rebounds/fouls/TOs) for Amile between about 15 minutes of the second half and 0:26 of the second half. Was he really out of the game for this long? (I did watch the game on TV btw).
No doubt about it the 2 Captains must start playing better on both ends of the court.For February 25 this was not very good.However on any given day the best teams can be beat. At the moment Duke is not even near being one of the best teams.

[Chicago 1995]

I think you're underselling how important allen is to this team's offense. This was a historically bad duke offensive performance in a stretch where duke has been playing some of the best offense in the country. Allen being on the bench is no coincidence.

Allen gets other people open shots, even when he's not hitting himself.

Correlation does not equal causation.

[Kjeffrey]

Using the ESPN play-by-play log, I didn't see any activity of any kind(shots/rebounds/fouls/TOs) for Amile between about 15 minutes of the second half and 0:26 of the second half. Was he really out of the game for this long? (I did watch the game on TV btw).

I am beginning to wonder if his poor play is the result of a lingering injury or just his limitations? He is a good defender but offensively he just hasn't improved that much over the years.

[dukelifer]

You don't make "investments for the future" in late February. You make those investments 8 weeks ago.

We are who we are now, and that team's pretty fragile with a high ceiling, but little chance of hitting it against really elite competition.

If this was a team coming back next year- I might be excited. But we have know idea who will be back. It has been frustrating. Injuries marred the season and unfortunately- the big guys were not ready for this level of play. It will take a magical run to get to the FF- but that takes a cocky confident team. Only way that happens in winning the ACC tourney. That could be a tall order. Possible but not going to be easy.

[duke4ever19]

I blame low energy Jeb for the loss

Jeb "The Big Lunesta" Bush was there? I knew it.

He probably gave the halftime speech/bedtime story.

[Saratoga2]

This was a 5 point loss and it was at 3 with just about 10 seconds to go. Our end of game strategy seemed to be to jack up long 3s using guys who were cold. Similar as people say to the Syracuse game.

Going back to the end of the first half, we have the ball and are set to get the last shot. Instead, Frank decides to try to drive between two defenders, gave up the ball and allowed Miami to score. Potential 4 point turn around there. A freshman mistake and one of three that he made. He played quite well on offense and drove to the basket so I am not trying to dis him, just point out how important an experienced PG can be. Guys need to think of the possibilities before attempting something.

Clearly, our guards were not given a lot of space and inside, Miami had and effective shot blocker. Jayson seemed a little shaken at times by the pressure and attempted at least one of his turn around fade away jumpers. Looks good but a very difficult shot. Luke got blocked several times. I guess they counted against his shots taken.


I agree that we have to get the ball to our bigs and put pressure on the rim. Draw fouls and try and make foul shots. Practice those guys.

No choice to go back and work on ways to get more out of our offense with the available players. Still no Chase out there.

[OldPhiKap]

Jeb "The Big Lunesta" Bush was there? I knew it.

He probably gave the halftime speech/bedtime story.

"Please clap"

[jv001]

I am beginning to wonder if his poor play is the result of a lingering injury or just his limitations? He is a good defender but offensively he just hasn't improved that much over the years.

Amile has a decent low post game against a man2man defense, but not against a zone. I think he was wasted at the foul line in the first half. In the 2nd half we went to Luke and Jayson at the foul line against the zone but Miami used a man2man defense more in the 2nd half. They are really well coached and play a rough style of defense and that seemed to knock Luke back a notch. GoDuke!

[SkyBrickey]

Staying positive:

1) Grayson gets much needed rest and will hopefully be 100% for the tourneys
2) Jackson played well and gained confidence
3) Good minutes for Giles and Bolden that should pay off
4) Even considering their tough defense at home, we just shot like s*** (happens some nights)
5) Even with 1-4, close loss on the road to a desperate NCAA tourney-bound team

A W against FSU and we're back on track. Not giving up on this team.

[Troublemaker]

You don't make "investments for the future" in late February. You make those investments 8 weeks ago.

We are who we are now, and that team's pretty fragile with a high ceiling, but little chance of hitting it against really elite competition.

That's dumb. Teams start to click in March all the time. I'm sure you could come up with the list yourself.

However, I certainly agree that I wish Bolden and Giles could've gotten more minutes sooner. Particularly Bolden.


Using the ESPN play-by-play log, I didn't see any activity of any kind(shots/rebounds/fouls/TOs) for Amile between about 15 minutes of the second half and 0:26 of the second half. Was he really out of the game for this long? (I did watch the game on TV btw).

That sounds right to me. We basically just rotated Bolden and Giles for each other down the stretch. I wish the final rotation (i.e. the final two minutes of the game) had Bolden in there instead of Giles, but overall 14 minutes for Marques beats 0 minutes.

[Duke76]

Could this be due to a lack of confidence in the ability of the young bigs to finish? Most players have a go-to move, but I've yet to see anything like that from Giles or Bolden, other than follow-up dunks.

frankly I wouldn't dump it in to Bolden either, he just is not a good offensive option....he has not developed any touch at all, imo. Giles though does have good touch and should have gone to him more

[uh_no]

Correlation does not equal causation.


The logical fallacy that just because two things are correlated, and correlation does not equal causation, that there can't be a causal connection between the two?

the two ACC games that allen didn't play comprising 2/3 of our worst ACC offensive performances is likely enough evidence alone to reject the null hypothesis.

When we take other facts as evidence
-poor shot selection
-increased turnovers

the conclusion has overwhelming support.

You can't just say "correlation does not equal causation" and expect it to be an argument winner. It doesn't work that way. If you'd like to actually make an argument that grayson's absence and NOT being a cause of our decreased offensive output, I'd love to hear it.

[heyman25]

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2017/02/eye-of-the-storm-miami-deals-duke-mens-basketball-second-straight-road-loss

Jefferson's foot is a problem again. Jones please put in extra time on your shooting. You will be open and you need to knock a few down.Amile was not physically able to run very well today. Big opportunity for Giles and Bolden against Florida State to show us some better playing. Florida State is much better than Miami. They are very good and Duke will have to step up to win this game.

[Utley]

Only time will tell but this loss felt like a back breaker.

Losing happens and you have to accept it but I can't stand the sense of the other team playing harder. I didn't get that sense of The type of passion I expect from someone playing in a Duke jersey from anyone other Frank Jackson - who played the game with a snarl (maybe Bolden too - he really brought energy tonight).

I think it's just been such an emotionally tough season - such lofty expectations followed by a lot of really rotten luck. K's return gave us a burst but I think with Grayson's re-injury we are just emotionally spent. Perhaps a win over the next two games gives us an adrenaline shot as a couple of new seasons begin.

I do like Troublemaker's point in this being the right investment - but I too wish it had been earlier. The game definitely highlighted all that Grayson brings to the table.

Time for a beer.

[jv001]

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2017/02/eye-of-the-storm-miami-deals-duke-mens-basketball-second-straight-road-loss

Jefferson's foot is a problem again. Jones please put in extra time on your shooting. You will be open and you need to knock a few down.Amile was not physically able to run very well today. Big opportunity for Giles and Bolden against Florida State to show us some better playing. Florida State is much better than Miami. They are very good and Duke will have to step up to win this game.

You could say the same thing about Luke and Jayson and you could say, Frank don't turn the ball over. This game was a team loss. Almost everyone had their finger prints on this one(loss). GoDuke!

[Duke76]

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2017/02/eye-of-the-storm-miami-deals-duke-mens-basketball-second-straight-road-loss

Jefferson's foot is a problem again. Jones please put in extra time on your shooting. You will be open and you need to knock a few down.Amile was not physically able to run very well today. Big opportunity for Giles and Bolden against Florida State to show us some better playing. Florida State is much better than Miami. They are very good and Duke will have to step up to win this game.

coach K post game

[lotusland]

This game was an investment for the future. We got the young bigs plenty of minutes. We rested an injured Grayson (and I wouldn't mind if he sat again on Tuesday). We determined once and for all that Tatum belongs at the 4. And we showed improvement on defense, which was good for the most part.

I'm more hopeful for the future than after the win against WFU or the loss at Syracuse, and I hope Coach continues to give Bolden and Giles minutes.

I agree. Duke played D like a contender today. If we can improve the scoring with a big lineup featuring Giles and/or Bolden playing significant minutes we'll have better odds at a deep tourney run. Refs basically letting them play held scoring down too imo. No one had more than 3 fouls on either team and it was a physical game. Miami played 8 and Duke only 7 so maybe the officiating actually worked slightly in Duke's favor. The difference imo was fast break points. Duke had numerous bad TOs for easy baskets but struggled to score in transition.

[Duke76]

coach K post game

http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?id=4956158&DB_OEM_ID=4200

oh shoot that was the 2016 presser sorry

[Kjeffrey]

Amile has a decent low post game against a man2man defense, but not against a zone. I think he was wasted at the foul line in the first half. In the 2nd half we went to Luke and Jayson at the foul line against the zone but Miami used a man2man defense more in the 2nd half. They are really well coached and play a rough style of defense and that seemed to knock Luke back a notch. GoDuke!

I think that is a great point about Amile. He can't be the middle of the zone because he doesn't have a jump shot. In terms of Luke I think he was trying too hard to make up for Grayson's absence. Yes Miami played good defense but he pushed things on several possessions. Duke shot poorly for the second game in a row. Hopefully they get out of this shooting slump soon.

[mgtr]

I wrote a Pulitzer quality review of this game, and my wifi disconnected right before posting. Is there a message here? Highlights: Not much offense, no screens for Kennard (he needs to be really open), no dumping down low. So, is this the end? No, I remain optimistic, and we have a great coach. If Jefferson is really injured (as he seems to be), sit him. If we lose a few more games before the NCAAs, it just lowers our seed, it doesn't kill us. Lets focus on the big game, we will be OK.

[jv001]

I agree. Duke played D like a contender today. If we can improve the scoring with a big lineup featuring Giles and/or Bolden playing significant minutes we'll have better odds at a deep tourney run. Refs basically letting them play held scoring down too imo. No one had more than 3 fouls on either team and it was a physical game. Miami played 8 and Duke only 7 so maybe the officiating actually worked slightly in Duke's favor. The difference imo was fast break points. Duke had numerous bad TOs for easy baskets but struggled to score in transition.

2nd game in a row our transition offense was below par. It cost us the Cuse game and helped Miami in this one as well. GoDuke!

[Henderson]

I wasn't near a television today, so I listened to Bob Harris on the radio with the sound turned off.

Looking at the box score, I think it was a good way to catch the game.

[lotusland]

The lack of spacing killed us with two bigs in. We made our run (and the turnovers stopped for the most part) when the offense spread out with Tatum at the 4.

But we defended better with Tatum at 3. Hard to play Tatum at 4 much when we only have 3 guards in the lineup.

[fuse]

I apologise- losing streak is my fault. The last two games i've not been able to watch live.

[lotusland]

At this point it is so hard to know what this team will be in March. This game was winnable and guys did not step up. Unlike Syracuse, Miami did not play out of their heads. This is always the kind of game where a senior needs to lead the way. That did not happen. This was a must win for the team and they did not treat it that way or they failed in critical moments. Now there is a good chance of losing the next 2 if not 3 going into the NCAAs. That is not good. Momentum has always mattered for Duke teams. From here on out - this team needs to play with the urgency of lose and go home. This was the worst loss of the season- no question.

NC State loss at home was much worse.

[Tripping William]

We played waaaay better down there than Carolina did. So there's that....

[Chard]

Tough back-to-back road games. Fatigue looked to play a role in the shoddy shooting percentage. Anyone know the travel schedule for the last two games? That had to play a factor.

Action Jackson brought it today and so did Giles and Bolden to lesser extents.

Duke was in position to win at the end. Just bad execution and shot selection by upperclassmen.

I was happy to see a lineup change and matching UM'S intensity. Loss sucks but this end stretch of games was a bad draw for Duke. I think things aren't as bad as some are making this loss out to be. Miami is not a bad team with the same 10-6 record as Duke in the 2017 ACC.

[lotusland]

I would call a layup or dunk a pretty good move on a dump off. No, I don't think either has perfected a good low post move. But that could be because they were injured and missed valuable practice time. Oh, yeh, they're freshmen as well. GoDuke!
Giles has shown some nifty moves/shots around the basket in limited action. Bolden has a jump hook.

[NashvilleDevil]

Jayson makes a jumper to make the score 45-46. He strips Miami of the ball and misses the fastbreak layup that would have put Duke up 1. Duke did not score another point until Luke's free throws with 30 seconds left. Jayson makes that and we might be talking about a close win. I thought the rims were incredibly tight and it was like shooting on a double rim at the playground where your shot has to be perfect.

I thought the D was passable today other than Bruce Brown playing out of his mind. I think Grayson should sit on Tuesday and Amile should play until the first TV timeout and sit. Apparently Amile cannot even run in practice according to K's press conference.

This is the one Duke team where any tournament result would not surprise me. I hope that getting Allen and Amile rest and Bolden, Giles, and Frank significant minutes pays off in the next month but it feels like we've been saying that all year.

[Tripping William]

I apologise- losing streak is my fault. The last two games i've not been able to watch live.

No beer for you ....... !!!

[lotusland]

Amile has a decent low post game against a man2man defense, but not against a zone. I think he was wasted at the foul line in the first half. In the 2nd half we went to Luke and Jayson at the foul line against the zone but Miami used a man2man defense more in the 2nd half. They are really well coached and play a rough style of defense and that seemed to knock Luke back a notch. GoDuke!
Amile scored 14 against the Cuse zone.

[lotusland]

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2017/02/eye-of-the-storm-miami-deals-duke-mens-basketball-second-straight-road-loss

Jefferson's foot is a problem again. Jones please put in extra time on your shooting. You will be open and you need to knock a few down.Amile was not physically able to run very well today. Big opportunity for Giles and Bolden against Florida State to show us some better playing. Florida State is much better than Miami. They are very good and Duke will have to step up to win this game.

Maybe GA plays and Amile sits against FSU

[Troublemaker]

But we defended better with Tatum at 3. Hard to play Tatum at 4 much when we only have 3 guards in the lineup.

I dunno about that. I thought once again opposing guards had success taking a hampered Amile off the dribble when he was at the 4.

But I agree that we couldn't have kept Tatum at the 4 for 40 minutes with just 3 guards available. We had to see at least some two-big lineups. Once we get Grayson healthy, we basically never have to see two-big offense again, thankfully.

[ChrisP]

Unlike a lot of other posters here, I'm not that worried about today's loss. Don't get me wrong - I HATE for Duke to lose. I'm much more upset about the Syracuse loss because that one seemed totally winnable to me if we'd just converted a few easy opportunities in transition. Yes, we blew a few such opportunities today, but a lot less than against 'Cuse.

The way I look at it, we lost yet ANOTHER game where one of our players sat due to injury. I have been watching Duke b-ball most of my life (closing in on 5 decades) and I simply cannot remember a year when we were bitten this badly by the injury bug. Heck, I can't remember any other team being bit this badly by it, either. Seems too much to overcome and yet...if just a couple things bounced our way the past 2 games, we'd all be feeling good about our nine game winning streak. Obviously, this team has a pretty thin margin for error.

And K's forgotten more than I'll ever know about coaching basketball but jeez, I wish now that he'd just have sat Grayson for the last game, too. What does it matter if we'd lost by 30 instead of 3 at Syracuse? Yeah, yeah hindsight is always 20/20 and all that, but man, I wish he'd have held Allen out of that one as well. And while I'm complaining...can anyone explain to me how playing Jack White or Delaurier a few minutes the past several games would have really hurt Duke that badly? It's not like our D could get worse, could it? Seriously, I don't get it, but of course, many of us here continue to complain about K's tight rotation toward the end of the year so I suppose my thoughts aren't even worth $.02 on that subject as nothing ever seems to change as far as use of our depth.

Anyway, I think it would have been great to win today, but with no Grayson and pretty horrible shooting from the guys who did play, I'm not really surprised. Way more bothered by the home loss to a bad NC State team and the Orange the other night. But hey, that's just me.

[CoachJ10]

4 of Duke's 7 losses have come by 2,2,3 and 5 points...w/ 2 of those losses coming on buzzer beaters.

We have had key players injured for the majority of the season.

Our Coach was out for an extended period of time.

In our 6 conference losses...we have attempted 123 fts and our opponents have attempted 137 (last 3 losses have been 47 for duke and 69 for our opponents).

We have not caught one break this season.

We are due to catch one come ACCT and NCAAT time.

[Troublemaker]

For those who were asking about Coach K's presser:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rbm4b3if-I

[bluenorth]

Giles has shown some nifty moves/shots around the basket in limited action. Bolden has a jump hook.

According to the Duke web site, Giles is 38 of 67 (.567) and Bolden is 16 of 35 (.457) in field goal shooting for the season. Not sure if that includes today's game. I doubt if many of those shots came from a distance of more than five feet from the hoop, so they'd be in traffic. Either way, that's not a lot of experience at this level of play.

[jipops]

When is the last time Duke did anything in the tournament when they weren't a 1 seed?

I could be wrong but I don't think Duke has made the final four as a non-1 seed since '94. And before that was the '91 team which I believe was a 6 seed. So lately, anything worse than a 1 for a Duke team does not bode well.

But this has been a highly unusual season. There has been almost no constant, not even K.

I was glad to see before the game that Grayson was being held out. In a way I'd like to see us do the same for Amile on Tuesday but with it being senior day he is going to have to make an appearance.

Seeding is important but the regular season is a wash, actually it was before today. I think starting out the post season healthy takes priority over seed. If we have to lose 4 in a row, so be it. I do think we have a shot Tuesday without Grayson and with a limited Amile. That would put a decent cap on the regular season. I think it is the one last chance to get some kind of break out from Harry. I don't think we have much of a shot vs. the cheats.

[dukelifer]

NC State loss at home was much worse.

Perhaps- but they played a bit out of their heads as well. Miami did not play well and this one was Duke's for the taking.

[uh_no]

radio with the sound turned off.


I'm just throwing it out there, but radio is much more effective when you have the sound turned on :D

[coldriver10]

Maybe GA plays and Amile sits against FSU
Don't forget it's senior night! No way Amile sits.

[mgtr]

I'm just throwing it out there, but radio is much more effective when you have the sound turned on :D

Of course, that is a function of which station is on.

[dukelifer]

I could be wrong but I don't think Duke has made the final four as a non-1 seed since '94. And before that was the '91 team which I believe was a 6 seed. So lately, poor seeding for a Duke team does not bode well.

But this has been a highly unusual season. There has been almost no constant, not even K.

I was glad to see before the game that Grayson was being held out. In a way I'd like to see us do the same for Amile on Tuesday but with it being senior day he is going to have to make an appearance.

Seeding is important but the regular season is a wash, actually it was before today. I think starting out the post season healthy takes priority over seed. If we have to lose 4 in a row, so be it. I do think we have a shot Tuesday without Grayson and with a limited Amile. That would put a decent cap on the regular season. I think it is the one last chance to get some kind of break out from Harry. I don't think we have much of a shot vs. the cheats, pretty much writing that one off as I had done today's game.

Duke will be limping into the ACC tourney and not getting a bye makes it really tough to win it all. So the goal is just to get a couple of wins with a healthy team and hope for a 4 seed in the big dance- but I am guessing a 5. I think UNC has a good chance to win it all. They are coming together. But they are fragile. One key injury and they will not be able to make a deep run.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Unless there is a massive turnaround in team basketball, March sadness instead of March madness.

Yup.
Love, Ima

[Native]

And before that was the '91 team which I believe was a 6 seed.

We were a 2 seed in the 1991 tournament, but your point still stands.

[dukelifer]

Don't forget it's senior night! No way Amile sits.

Didn't he already have a senior night last year.

[jipops]

Duke will be limping into the ACC tourney and not getting a bye makes it really tough to win it all. So the goal is just to get a couple of wins with a healthy team and hope for a 4 seed in the big dance- but I am guessing a 5. I think UNC has a good chance to win it all. They are coming together. But they are fragile. One key injury and they will not be able to make a deep run.

Everybody is a key injury away from being derailed. That isn't unique. The cheats look to be the best team. I'm bracing for the worst. And the 2nd straight title game that I won't watch.

And I don't really care about the acct much either. Just getting one win from it would be nice.

I just don't want us limping into the dance. Make us a 10 seed, I don't care.

[DBFAN]

Not sure if it has been mentioned but K said in post game he doesn't know if Allen or Jefferson will play Tues. same reason for Allen so not a big shock, but said Jefferson is having trouble running

[coldriver10]

Didn't he already have a senior night last year.
I don't believe he was honored last year, but please let me know if I'm mistaken.

Edit: I just saw K's comments about Amile. That'd be a huge bummer for him (and maybe Grayson) to have to sit out their last games in Cameron. But gotta think longer term.

[Troublemaker]

For those who were asking about Coach K's presser:

Just watched. So yeah, he's thinking "big picture" with the injuries. I agree. Continue doing that, Coach.

[NashvilleDevil]

Just watched. So yeah, he's thinking "big picture" with the injuries. I agree. Continue doing that, Coach.

K did not seem down after the game. I know I'm reading into this waaaaaaay too much but watching that press conference made me feel like K knows this team is close or he's as exasperated with the constant injuries as we are.

[Henderson]

I'm just throwing it out there, but radio is much more effective when you have the sound turned on :D


Of course, that is a function of which station is on.

Listening to Bob Harris during a close game is like listening to a Wagner opera: It's not as bad as it sounds.

[jipops]

Just watched. So yeah, he's thinking "big picture" with the injuries. I agree. Continue doing that, Coach.

I completely agree as well. He made a specific reference to being "there" two weeks from now. I got the sense that his big picture is not the acct.

[dukelifer]

K did not seem down after the game. I know I'm reading into this waaaaaaay too much but watching that press conference made me feel like K knows this team is close or he's as exasperated with the constant injuries as we are.

You get some perspective on what is important when you are 70 with 1000+ wins and 5NC's. Stuff happens. This was a weird year. He is going to let the rest of the regular season play itself out and roll the dice for the NCAAs. Who knows - maybe he plays the rest of the bench from here on out. This could be a dangerous 5 seed. Maybe a loose Duke team can make a run.

[sagegrouse]

The defense actually looked pretty good today, for the most part. The offense? Not so much.
No Grayson, Luke cold, Tatum cold. Where were our points supposed to come from?

Anyone wanna re-visit the "let's sit Grayson" point-of-view? We missed him "bigly."

One of those games where we started with near-misses and never did find the range. This may be a description of the season, but I hope not.

[FerryFor50]

Sporting News had him at 29. We sure made him look good.

A lot of teams made him look good. He's having a great freshman season.

He's averaging 11 ppg, 3apg and 6 rpg. He scored 30 against UNC. Brown is legit.

I did notice that Ja'Quan Newton played this game, but had been suspended for 3 games prior. Didn't see a ton of headlines about how he conveniently became unsuspended for the Duke game. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[WHOneedsSOX]

Another tournament sealing win for a team playing at home. We have issues this year, I'm not sure they are as damning as some make them out to be. But I'll admit they exist and can cause us to lose games.

That said, we have horses and can win games against good teams. We will be in it, and at the end of the day I'm not sure you can ever ask for anything more in any given year.

- Chillin

Coach K's plan to get more ACC teams in the tournament haha

[RPS]

Anyone wanna re-visit the "let's sit Grayson" point-of-view? We missed him "bigly."
My thought exactly.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

I'm not worried about the team, but I am beginning to be concerned about our potential seed.

How do you feel the committee will take into consideration all the injuries and K's absence when seeding us this year?

I think fully healthy(and that's debatable), we've only lost once on a buzzer beater.

[sagegrouse]

I could be wrong but I don't think Duke has made the final four as a non-1 seed since '94. And before that was the '91 team which I believe was a 6 seed. So lately, anything worse than a 1 for a Duke team does not bode well.

But this has been a highly unusual season. There has been almost no constant, not even K.

I was glad to see before the game that Grayson was being held out. In a way I'd like to see us do the same for Amile on Tuesday but with it being senior day he is going to have to make an appearance.

Seeding is important but the regular season is a wash, actually it was before today. I think starting out the post season healthy takes priority over seed. If we have to lose 4 in a row, so be it. I do think we have a shot Tuesday without Grayson and with a limited Amile. That would put a decent cap on the regular season. I think it is the one last chance to get some kind of break out from Harry. I don't think we have much of a shot vs. the cheats.

We have only been in five Final Fours since 1994.

The previous seven Final Fours, we were #1 seed only twice -- 1986 and 1992. In the other years we were 2 (1988), 2 (1989), 3 (1990), 2 (1991), and 2 (1994).

[FerryFor50]

How do you feel the committee will take into consideration all the injuries and K's absence when seeding us this year?

I think fully healthy(and that's debatable), we've only lost once on a buzzer beater.

Worst case, I think Duke's a 5 seed. Best case, a 2 - and that's if they can beat UNC and win the ACCT and everyone else bombs out.

I don't know that the committee will take injuries into account, especially if they're still lingering into the NCAAs.

[MaxAMillion]

If Jefferson injured his ankle then you might as well let him sit also. I can never remember a season where so many players and the coach all had to miss time. It just feels like a lost season. I would have loved to see this team healthy and playing together all year.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

We have only been in four Final Fours since 1994.

The previous seven Final Fours, we were #1 seed only twice -- 1986 and 1992. In the other years we were 2 (1988), 2 (1989), 3 (1990), 2 (1991), and 2 (1994).

We've played in 5. '99, '01, '04, '10, '15.

We were 1 seeds in all five.

[Troublemaker]

Anyone wanna re-visit the "let's sit Grayson" point-of-view? We missed him "bigly."

One of those games where we started with near-misses and never did find the range. This may be a description of the season, but I hope not.


My thought exactly.

Sitting him will still help get his ankle better, right, regardless of the result? If so, then I haven't changed my mind. I doubt Coach K has, either.

This is just simple delay of gratification. Invest now, reap reward later.

[TNTDevil]

I completely disagree with the statement dbr makes saying the right team won. We didnt play great, but Miami only won because we missed about 30 points on shots that would normally fall.

1. Beat the CHeats.
2. Win the ACC tournament.
3. Win the NCAA tournament.
Sure. No biggie.

Perhaps during our downtime maybe we can cure cancer or solve world hunger?

:cool:

[MCFinARL]

A lot of teams made him look good. He's having a great freshman season.

He's averaging 11 ppg, 3apg and 6 rpg. He scored 30 against UNC. Brown is legit.

I did notice that Ja'Quan Newton played this game, but had been suspended for 3 games prior. Didn't see a ton of headlines about how he conveniently became unsuspended for the Duke game. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Probably because he was suspended for three games, not "indefinitely." A lot of folks seemed to have trouble with the idea that an indefinite suspect ion was, well, indefinite.

[RPS]

I could be wrong but I don't think Duke has made the final four as a non-1 seed since '94. And before that was the '91 team which I believe was a 6 seed. So lately, anything worse than a 1 for a Duke team does not bode well.
As someone else has noted, Duke was a #2 in 1991.

Low seeds often win during the first week of the tournament, but not so much thereafter. Since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams, only three teams not seeded as a #4 or higher have won the NC -- Villanova (#8) over Georgetown in 1985; Danny and the Miracles (#6) in 1988; and UConn (#7) in 2014. State was a #6 in 1983.

[hsheffield]

So I can write with a little perspective.

I thought our D looked pretty good; many rushed shots by UM at the end of their shot clock. Bolden and Giles were hedging with impunity. We even got some shot clock violations.

Not sure why, but Luke looked confused/offended whenever his shot was blocked. Perhaps he thought he'd been fouled?

I believe they stole the ball from us EIGHT times. Is that the usual MO for UM or were we just sloppy?

And where did we finish w/ our FT%? At one time the scoreboard said we were at 33% FT. Is that really true?

Except for Frank, the guys seemed flat. Mostly just moseying along to where ever they were supposed to be after a time out. They didn't seem as engaged as I'm used to seeing. Could they be tired?

Overall we just lacked flow.

Watsco arena was almost like a pro arena. Lots of campy, trashy stuff going on in the TV timeouts. There were a few dedicated appearing UM fans, but nothing like Cameron. There were a LOT of Duke fans chanting LGD. No harassment by Miami folks to those of us wearing 'Duke National Champion' tee shirts.

[RPS]

Sitting him will still help get his ankle better, right, regardless of the result? If so, then I haven't changed my mind. I doubt Coach K has, either.

This is just simple delay of gratification. Invest now, reap reward later.
Sage and I were responding to (silly) posters who had suggested after the Syracuse game that Grayson be benched for poor play. I'm all for resting his ankle.

[jipops]

As someone else has noted, Duke was a #2 in 1991.

Low seeds often win during the first week of the tournament, but not so much thereafter. Since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams, only three teams not seeded as a #4 or higher have won the NC -- Villanova (#8) over Georgetown in 1985; Danny and the Miracles (#6) in 1988; and UConn (#7) in 2014. State was a #6 in 1983.

Right, but the point was Duke's on going pre-requisite trend is to be a #1 seed just to get to a Final Four. This season would have to be a break from that 22, going on 23, year long precedent.

[duke4ever19]

I wasn't near a television today, so I listened to Bob Harris on the radio with the sound turned off.

Wait, you didn't watch the game on TV, but you did listen to Bob Harris on the radio . . . with the sound off?

What witchery is this?

Edit: uh_no already beat me to it. :p

[gofurman]

Sage and I were responding to (silly) posters who had suggested after the Syracuse game that Grayson be benched for poor play. I'm all for resting his ankle.

I didn't get to watch much but I know Grayson was held out and Amile didn't play much. Glad GA out.
Q1 - Why was Amile limited? For health. ? To teach the young guys??? Not productive?

On the other hand.. Numbers 9' 13, 14, 23 and 24 lost too. If this will allow GA to be aggressive
Then I am all for it

Heck, these guys (Miami) beat UNC and if a few FTs or threes roll in we win. Was our D pretty good or were both teams just horrid at shooting? I see Miami was 1-8 from 3. Was that our D or more luck?

[MartyClark]

I was at the game, my 2nd game of the year. Really enjoyed my time in Coral Gables and at the game. The Miami crowd was not all that loud, until the end of the game, and definitely not that hostile. We had a good experience with the Miami fans.

More to the point:

1. Luke got stuffed 3or 4 times, I think. He seemed to be off.

2. A couple of plays made a difference. Luke slipped on the floor on a fast break and got called for a travel. At the start of the second half, Harry missed an alley oop because he had slipped on the floor, Tatum missed a fairly easy lay up etc.

3. Grayson seemed to be hobbled when walking out at the start of the first and second half.

4. Too many steals by Miami. Duke seemed to lack urgency and confidence.

I have no projections for the future of this Duke team. I expect the worst and hope for the best. A healthy Grayson Allen would be very helpful

Go duke!

[Chicago 1995]

That's dumb. Teams start to click in March all the time. I'm sure you could come up with the list yourself.

.

Teams that click in March often times do it because of "investments" in December and January, not the last game in Feb. There's a difference in my mind

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Right, but the point was Duke's on going pre-requisite trend is to be a #1 seed just to get to a Final Four. This season would have to be a break from that 22, going on 23, year long precedent.

But everything so far about his season has been a break from the norm.

This team reminds me of the UK team from 2014 that was an 8 seed, but then ran the table all the way to the title game.

If there is ever a year for a Duke team to make an "unlikely" run, this is the year.

[robed deity]

Right, but the point was Duke's on going pre-requisite trend is to be a #1 seed just to get to a Final Four. This season would have to be a break from that 22, going on 23, year long precedent.

Well, it's been the weirdest year I can remember. If there's any year that breaks that precedent, it would almost make sense that it's this one.

[Fish80]

The sky is falling. The end is near. It is Over!

Next play.

[Chicago 1995]

The logical fallacy that just because two things are correlated, and correlation does not equal causation, that there can't be a causal connection between the two?

the two ACC games that allen didn't play comprising 2/3 of our worst ACC offensive performances is likely enough evidence alone to reject the null hypothesis.

When we take other facts as evidence
-poor shot selection
-increased turnovers

the conclusion has overwhelming support.

You can't just say "correlation does not equal causation" and expect it to be an argument winner. It doesn't work that way. If you'd like to actually make an argument that grayson's absence and NOT being a cause of our decreased offensive output, I'd love to hear it.

I don't expect it to be a winner.

What Grayson are we talking about? If it's the one who played against Syracuse and made questionable decisions and took poor shots, he wouldn't have helped today. If through some dumb luck, it's the Grayson of UNLV or UNC then of course he'd matter. We've seen a lot more of the former than latter of late, save for a beautiful night against UNC.

Our offense is failing because we've got two guys on the floor at all times that are easy guards and no threats to a defense. We throw post entry incredibly rarely, and generate all of our inside threat off dribble penetration. Grayson's not helping with post entry, for sure, and as he's playing now, he's not doing much effectively off the dribble.

Today, we ran into a more athletic team that played physically. We couldn't break them down consistently off the bounce, and it was hard to generate clean looks because of it. I don't think the player I've seen since the UNC game would have changed that one bit

[gofurman]

Duke will be limping into the ACC tourney and not getting a bye makes it really tough to win it all. So the goal is just to get a couple of wins with a healthy team and hope for a 4 seed in the big dance- but I am guessing a 5. I think UNC has a good chance to win it all. They are coming together. But they are fragile. One key injury and they will not be able to make a deep run.

Duke will get a bye in the ACC. just not a double-bye

[Troublemaker]

Teams that click in March often times do it because of "investments" in December and January, not the last game in Feb. There's a difference in my mind

Well, I don't believe all experience before today has been meaningless. Incidentally, part of the investment is just getting Grayson Allen healthy.


But everything so far about his season has been a break from the norm.

This team reminds me of the UK team from 2014 that was an 8 seed, but then ran the table all the way to the title game.

If there is ever a year for a Duke team to make an "unlikely" run, this is the year.

Exactly. I would try to keep expectations low regardless, but that kind of run certainly wouldn't surprise me.

[indy1duke]

In all likelihood this year's team will finish with 10 losses. I think they will beat Fl St and lose to unc; win a game or two in the ACC tournament; and then win a game in the NCAA tournament. That would make the overall record of 26 wins and 10 losses. Would you be surprised to learn that only five of Coach K's teams have had 10 or more losses starting with the 83/84 team? Injuries and suspension seem to be the cause of our decline. In many ways it is remarkable that we have had the gift of so many outstanding teams over Coach K's career. But for the injury adversity this year's team would have taken its place with those other great Duke teams. It has all the ingredients to be successful, lacking only the traditional point guard. It would not be shocking if Grayson got enough rest to return to health and lead this team to more victories than I predict. It would certainly be welcome and delicious for all of us Duke fans. In any event there will be lots of thrills left in this season. We seem to be in all our games, win or lose.

[dukelifer]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.
I will give him a pass. A total knee replacement, ankle surgery, hernia surgery and back surgery not to mention distracted by the Olympics. Pain and distractions at 70 - not easy - even for Coach K.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

I think it starts with the lack of a true point guard and the transfer of Thornton.
Yes you can win in all in 2010 without one but that may be the exception.

And then continues with a series of injuries that kept the team from really coming together.

I do think that K coaches for March and we are not there yet.

SoCal

[Kedsy]

I think it starts with the lack of a true point guard and the transfer of Thornton.

I wish people would stop saying this. Here are some comparative stats:



Player Asst % TO % assts per 40 a/to
Derryck Thornton (2016) 16.7% 17.8% 3.9 1.55
Frank Jackson (2017) 13.6% 12.2% 3.0 1.52
Grayson Allen (2017) 21.8% 14.4% 4.9 1.69


Stats-wise, Grayson is the most PG-like of the three. Frank has slightly fewer assists, but also fewer turnovers and a very slightly better a/to ratio. Employing the ever-popular eye-test (using my own eyes, of course), Derryck looked no more like a point guard to me than Frank does.



Right, but the point was Duke's on going pre-requisite trend is to be a #1 seed just to get to a Final Four. This season would have to be a break from that 22, going on 23, year long precedent.

What exactly is the 22-year "pre-requisite trend"? Seems to me Duke has performed pretty close to what we should have done at every seed level since 1995:



Seed # times expected % exp F4 Rounds to Actual F4 difference
#1 11 0.4063 4.469 4 5 1
#2 5 0.2188 1.094 1 0 -1
#3 2 0.1094 0.219 0 0 0
#4 1 0.1016 0.102 0 0 0
#5 0 0.0469 0.000 0 0 0
>#4 2 0.0107 0.021 0 0 0
n/a 1 0.0000 0.000 0 0 0


So, overall, we've gone to exactly as many Final Fours as would be expected from our seeds, but we went to one more (really a half more) than expected for a #1 and one less than expected for a #2. Some trend.

What does that mean for the future? Not a great deal. If we get a #3 or #4, then using historical figures we'll have an approximate one in ten chance (10% or 11%) of making the Final Four. A lot less of a chance than if we were a #1 (about 41%), sure, but that has nothing to do with any imagined 22-year trend (even putting aside the fact that if you hadn't cherry-picked your "trend" there wouldn't be a trend at all).

[MaxAMillion]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

They are not NBA talents at present. Bolden was thought to be raw offensively in high school so his offensive struggles are no surprise. Giles simply isn't the same player as he was his junior year. No your response is not welcome by me because you are rarely around to give Coach K credit when he wins.

[JD for Three!]

Grayson needs to rest. Unfortunately, when he does, we really don't have anyone who plays with the stones or attitude. Frank is developing it, but he is not on the floor enough.
Everyone got to see Giles and Bolden get minutes today. Not bad D. Almost no O. They got more minutes because the refs weren't calling much. Neither had their usual two quick fouls.
I do hate to see Giles, Bolden and Tatum trying to grab the O boards midair and go for the slam. Bring it down and go back up for the bunny shot. I bet we have missed half a dozen in the last two games. Frustrating. The slam gets attention, but the miss sucks.
I would like to see Luke drive and dish to one of the bigs a little more. Not only would it develop them, but it would loosen up the D on him a bit.
It's all about health at this point. This team is capable of really going off on anyone when we are healthy and hitting some shots. I know this is heresy, but I would take an early exit from the ACCT to get some extra rest. Just can't decide who it would be acceptable to lose to!
A little rest and we are a nightmare for any team who draws us in the NCAAT.

[jipops]

I wish people would stop saying this. Here are some comparative stats:


What exactly is the 22-year "pre-requisite trend"? Seems to me Duke has performed pretty close to what we should have done at every seed level since 1995:



Seed # times expected % exp F4 Rounds to Actual F4 difference
#1 11 0.4063 4.469 4 5 1
#2 5 0.2188 1.094 1 0 -1
#3 2 0.1094 0.219 0 0 0
#4 1 0.1016 0.102 0 0 0
#5 0 0.0469 0.000 0 0 0
>#4 2 0.0107 0.021 0 0 0
n/a 1 0.0000 0.000 0 0 0


So, overall, we've gone to exactly as many Final Fours as would be expected from our seeds, but we went to one more (really a half more) than expected for a #1 and one less than expected for a #2. Some trend.

What does that mean for the future? Not a great deal. If we get a #3 or #4, then using historical figures we'll have an approximate one in ten chance (10% or 11%) of making the Final Four. A lot less of a chance than if we were a #1 (about 41%), sure, but that has nothing to do with any imagined 22-year trend (even putting aside the fact that if you hadn't cherry-picked your "trend" there wouldn't be a trend at all).

I gotta say I don't know what you mean by "cherry-picked" here. Since the last time we reached the Final Four as a non-1, which was in '1994, we haven't done it since. That's coming up on 23 years, it's old enough to drink. That's pretty much it. Hence the term pre-requisite. That's our "trend". I say it's ours because I don't think there are very many teams who have seen as many #1 seeds as we have in that time. Is it at all unusual to not be a #1 seed and not make the F4? Obviously not.

With the bizarre sort of season this has been, I have no idea what to glean from any of this. I don't think we even really know what kind of team we'll be watching in 2 weeks. I'm hoping it is a healthy one.

[jipops]

For some bizarre reason I watched the game again.

Not having Grayson there as pretty much our only acting facilitator on the roster made things quite treacherous getting started on offense. Examples were Tatum inexplicably tossing it to Amile by surprise when running up the floor - turnover, Frank several times dribbling through a crowd - turnover, Kennard driving into a crowd - blocked shot, no looks for any of the interior guys once Amile went out, etc... Probably one of the most frustrating things to watch is the all out refusal to get either of Giles or Bolden involved in the offense. How can you possibly expect an inexperienced freshman to be fully engaged on defense when he almost never gets the ball on offense? There is no disputing that Giles' knees have limited him to a shadow of his former self, but seeing him get looked off when he has post position for a clean post entry is frustrating. I love Kennard and I think he's the best player in the ACC this season, but he is the type of player on the drive that doesn't see the big guy near the basket when help has come over to cover his drive. Other than Grayson, only Matt seems to see these looks but he's not the guy driving to the basket, nor should he be.

I also think this team has a big problem not getting to the free throw line. Maybe this has something to do with us not looking to the paint. I don't think it is correlated to our reliance on the 3, we've done that for years, but we do seem to shy away from getting to the basket or putting our big guys in position with the ball around the basket.

Maybe the most disturbing thing is a stat that Grant Hill threw out in the first half. I don't know how true this is and what exactly all the parameters that were used to measure it, but his statement was that Duke ranks LAST in the nation in transition defense. This is rather believable too, perception-wise. I barely recall any instance this season where we got a stop when the opposition was on the break. Obviously the percentages are much higher in general that a team is going to score when in transition. But I know in every game I've watched this season I've fully expected the other team to score on us once they are out in transition. Still, I do wonder if Grant's stat is true.

[Wander]

I think the whole "Duke needs a 1 seed to reach the Final Four" vibe here is silly. The only reason that "pre-requisite" exists is... because we get 1 seeds so often, that we barely get the chance to make the Final Four as a lower seed!

I don't think we'll make the Final Four this year, but that's because of all the injuries and Giles/Bolden's inability to become good ACC caliber players this year (these may or may not actually be the same reasons), not some hypothetical Duke seeding rule.

[jipops]

I think the whole "Duke needs a 1 seed to reach the Final Four" vibe here is silly. The only reason that "pre-requisite" exists is... because we get 1 seeds so often, that we barely get the chance to make the Final Four as a lower seed!

I don't think we'll make the Final Four this year, but that's because of all the injuries and Giles/Bolden's inability to become good ACC caliber players this year (these may or may not actually be the same reasons), not some hypothetical Duke seeding rule.

Well if it's a vibe, it's not something being expressed here. Nowhere has it been suggested that Duke not being a #1 rules out them making the F4. It's like if I said, "Duke has lost to Miami 5 of the last 6 seasons", it's not like I'm saying "going forward we should expect Miami to beat us every year". What has been discussed is the fact that they haven't made it as a non-1 over a stretch of over 2 decades. So over that span it has been a pre-requisite that Duke be a #1 seed to get that far. Getting there this year would represent a change. As I stated just a bit ago, I have no idea what to glean about this team coming up to the tournament. It's been a strange year. We really don't know what kind of team we're going to have when the tournament starts. Even further up the thread (or maybe it was another one) I stated that I don't even care what our seed is at this point. If holding out Grayson and Amile means we drop 4 straight, so be it. There is a bigger picture here.

I'm not betting on a Final Four appearance either (surprise!), for a variety of reasons. But far crazier things have happened.

[DukeandMdFan]

Well if it's a vibe, it's not something being expressed here. Nowhere has it been suggested that Duke not being a #1 rules out them making the F4. It's like if I said, "Duke has lost to Miami 5 of the last 6 seasons", it's not like I'm saying "going forward we should expect Miami to beat us every year". What has been discussed is the fact that they haven't made it as a non-1 over a stretch of over 2 decades. So over that span it has been a pre-requisite that Duke be a #1 seed to get that far. Getting there this year would represent a change. As I stated just a bit ago, I have no idea what to glean about this team coming up to the tournament. It's been a strange year. We really don't know what kind of team we're going to have when the tournament starts. Even further up the thread (or maybe it was another one) I stated that I don't even care what our seed is at this point. If holding out Grayson and Amile means we drop 4 straight, so be it. There is a bigger picture here.

I'm not betting on a Final Four appearance either (surprise!), for a variety of reasons. But far crazier things have happened.

This would seem like a good year for Duke to change the trend. Duke has the talent and could be the best team in the country in April if injuries heal and the GOAT can fix the other problems.

Of course, two decades is a long time...I think a lot of it has to do with the Tournament Selection committee taking ACC Championships and previous tourney success into account when seeding Duke.


We have only been in five Final Fours since 1994.

The previous seven Final Fours, we were #1 seed only twice -- 1986 and 1992. In the other years we were 2 (1988), 2 (1989), 3 (1990), 2 (1991), and 2 (1994).

When Grant was at Duke, Duke won two National Championships and twice defeated higher seeded teams in the NCAA tourney.
Before Grant, Duke had never won a National Championship (but beat several higher seeded teams)
After Grant, Duke hasn't beat a higher seeded team in any round (but has won 3 NCAA Championships)

FWIW
Final Fours in 1963, 1964, 1966 - Duke was the only team in the East with a bye;
Final Four in 1978 - Duke was a "1Q" seed in the East, meaning that of the Automatic Qualifiers in the East, Duke was seeded #1.

[kAzE]

The only difference between this game and the Virginia game is that Jayson Tatum was red hot from 3 in one of them and he was totally off in the other. We looked decent on defense, but just couldn't get anything going from deep. It was one of those games where we just needed 1 more guy to hit some shots, whether was Luke, Jayson, or Matt, and they were all cold.

Missing Grayson as another guy who could have potentially carried us to a victory was tough in this one, but his health is more important than the outcome of this game.

Harry is really confusing to me. His hands are HUGE, so I cannot understand why he has so much trouble getting a handle on a lot of loose balls and rebounds. About 90% of the time he has an easy 2 handed offensive rebound opportunity, he inexplicably tries to go for a crazy 1 hand putback dunk that works 0% of the time. He had 8 boards in this one, but could have had like 12 if he had just gone for the conservative 2 handed rebound. It's getting kind of late in the season now to hope for complete transformation. He might get a little better, but we may need to stop hoping for a major Harry Giles breakout.

Frank had great moments in this one, but also had some really bad unforced turnovers. It's easy to see why he's going to be special at some point, but also why he doesn't play more minutes. Still, this was his best performance on the road. He played really hard, and continued to compete, so that was good to see.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Worst case, I think Duke's a 5 seed. Best case, a 2 - and that's if they can beat UNC and win the ACCT and everyone else bombs out.

I don't know that the committee will take injuries into account, especially if they're still lingering into the NCAAs.

And I would guess we're much closer to our "floor" of being a 5 seed right now than our "ceiling" of being a 2 seed.

Having said that, I would rest Grayson and Amile for the FSU game and bring them back for the season finale before the postseason gets started.

Coach K himself talked about how the postseason is a clean slate and a whole new season in his post game press conference tonight.

I believe he and the team are ready for March to get here ASAP.

[Devilwin]

I think Grayson should have sat the 'Cuse game too. Maybe FSU also. Get him back for the drive over to UNC. I have seen several here saying the UNC game is lost already...
How???
They are the best team in the league, but certainly not unbeatable. I refer you to the Rivers shot, the game won over there last year, and others. Yes, we can win that game. In fact, I feel we have as good if not better chance of winning there as beating FSU. A good defensive effort on Jackson, and they're very beatable. We'll need good inside defense for sure ( I have railed on this all year, it's our Achilles heel, imo) and need to make threes. If all this comes together, we win that game.
Another thing..
Matt has suddenly became a liability on offense. As the old folks used to say, " he couldn't hit a bull in the butt with a bass fiddle". His shot is unorthodox, but it is soft and he should be getting the benefit of that. But he must start, he is our best defender by far.
Some way must be found to eliminate all these mistakes on fast breaks too. We convert those we win at Syracuse, and yesterday too.

Our interior defense is way beyond bad, it's horrible. Miami made one three yesterday. Numerous times they slashed right through us for lay ups, and this has been the case in many games this year. Somebody needs to learn to be a rim protector, period.
And we need to make better decisions on offense. We blew our last chance right before halftime, and our end game performance yesterday was atrocious.
That's all I got.
I still believe with all this talent we have we can make a run, but time is running out on what began as a marvelous season. But we have the one thing no other team has..Coach K.

[Troublemaker]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

Maybe Duke's coaches and players would be better if they had a rival that was worth a damn and could push them.

Unfortunately for Duke, we've won 5 of the past 6 and 12 of the past 16 against you.

That kind of dominance breeds complacency, wouldn't you say?

Maybe UNC will finally do its part on March 4th. Maybe.

[Troublemaker]

I don't think we'll make the Final Four this year, but that's because of all the injuries and Giles/Bolden's inability to become good ACC caliber players this year (these may or may not actually be the same reasons), not some hypothetical Duke seeding rule.

I think they're already there or on the verge, depending on how you define it.

I love me some Marques especially. 3 blocks in 14 minutes.

Hoping Coach gives Amile a rest and allows the young bigs to carry the load for a couple of games.

[lotusland]

I think Grayson should have sat the 'Cuse game too. Maybe FSU also. Get him back for the drive over to UNC. I have seen several here saying the UNC game is lost already...
How???
They are the best team in the league, but certainly not unbeatable. I refer you to the Rivers shot, the game won over there last year, and others. Yes, we can win that game. In fact, I feel we have as good if not better chance of winning there as beating FSU. A good defensive effort on Jackson, and they're very beatable. We'll need good inside defense for sure ( I have railed on this all year, it's our Achilles heel, imo) and need to make threes. If all this comes together, we win that game.
Another thing..
Matt has suddenly became a liability on offense. As the old folks used to say, " he couldn't hit a bull in the butt with a bass fiddle". His shot is unorthodox, but it is soft and he should be getting the benefit of that. But he must start, he is our best defender by far.
Some way must be found to eliminate all these mistakes on fast breaks too. We convert those we win at Syracuse, and yesterday too.

Our interior defense is way beyond bad, it's horrible. Miami made one three yesterday. Numerous times they slashed right through us for lay ups, and this has been the case in many games this year. Somebody needs to learn to be a rim protector, period.
And we need to make better decisions on offense. We blew our last chance right before halftime, and our end game performance yesterday was atrocious.
That's all I got.
I still believe with all this talent we have we can make a run, but time is running out on what began as a marvelous season. But we have the one thing no other team has..Coach K.

I don't think interior defense was bad against Miami. I remember one bad PnR play, a back
door cut and a drive and dunk from the side against Frank as he recovered from helping underneath. There may have been a couple more I've forgotten but they only scored 55 points. The easy buckets came mostly on TOs and stick backs.

[Bob Green]

Giles has shown some nifty moves/shots around the basket in limited action. Bolden has a jump hook.

I've been a very vocal proponent of sitting Grayson Allen so his ankle has an opportunity to heal prior to post season. If he sits against Florida State on Tuesday, it will not upset me because a healthy Allen is required for Duke to make a deep run in the NCAAT. I remain committed to sitting Allen as long as required.

The result of Allen sitting is Duke playing two bigs together for a lot of minutes, which means more minutes for Harry Giles and Marques Bolden. Against Miami, Giles and Bolden did not produce much punch on offense:

Giles - 19 mins, 2 points, 8 rebounds
Bolden - 14 minutes, 0 points, 4 rebounds

Giles was credited with a steal and Bolden had three blocks so their presence was felt on defense, but when the team plays a two big men line-up we have to figure out a way to get the ball inside for points. Allen sitting will give them more game experience which might be what the team needs to learn to feed the ball to them in position to score.

[CharlestonDave]

I could be wrong , it won't be the first or the last time either, but these past 2 losses , and mostly one or maybe 2 more , and the unlikely situation of us winning the ACC Tournament , makes me think that the highest seed we could get would be a 5 seed , ( that 5-12 match up is always scary ) , but conceivably we could get a 6 or 7 seed.

It also looks like UNC will get a number 1 seed .

[Indoor66]

Correlation does not equal causation.

And sometimes it does.

[DangerDevil]

I thought we looked tired, particularly on offense. I think our perimeter defense was good and we did a great job of making them wait until very late in the shot clock to get their offense started. I thought we still struggled on stopping their drives to the paint and struggled even worse with help defense in the paint.

Even with as poor as our offense played the ball really didn't drop for us. By my count, the first free throw attempt that Amile missed at the 5:07 mark was the 20th potential point that we lost that went in and out. If any of those would have fallen for us our we executed on any of the empty fast breaks we still would have pulled out a victory. Wasn't our day, hopefully we are getting healthy and we have used up all of our bad luck for the season. Go Duke!

[wavedukefan70s]

They shot 37% we shot 31 or in that ballpark. Ugly as it was a few more baskets we win.defense wasnt bad .

[duke09hms]

I wish people would stop saying this. Here are some comparative stats:



Player Asst % TO % assts per 40 a/to
Derryck Thornton (2016) 16.7% 17.8% 3.9 1.55
Frank Jackson (2017) 13.6% 12.2% 3.0 1.52
Grayson Allen (2017) 21.8% 14.4% 4.9 1.69


Stats-wise, Grayson is the most PG-like of the three. Frank has slightly fewer assists, but also fewer turnovers and a very slightly better a/to ratio. Employing the ever-popular eye-test (using my own eyes, of course), Derryck looked no more like a point guard to me than Frank does.


I understand Thornton didn't exactly tear it up last year, but when considered in context, I think it's fair to say he would take this year's team up to the next level.

Extenuating factors: DT had no preaseason last year and came in young as a reclassified freshman and played 26 mpg. The "Grayson" who put up those nice stats this year is now injured, and who knows if he can get back there. Jackson is freshman now.

If Derryck had stayed, we'd have the sophomore version of him with a full preseason under his belt, taking full benefit of the freshman-sophomore jump up from those stats. An experienced PG who can create AND play defense. Remember his block to seal the win against UNC last year?

Why he transferred is a mystery to me.

[Saratoga2]

Don't see a Phase V thread so I guess the only place to post my rather verbose commentary is in the current thread. Here goes:

Early in the year, I was very hopeful of having a strong season and competing for the ACC tournament title and being a force in the NCAA tournament. The reason is we had 5 returning players and what appeared to be the best recruiting class in memory. Our returners headlined Grayson, who had accumulated 2 years, playing with a high motor and reckless abandon. With him, a healthy 5th year player in Amile, who was recovered from the foot injury, Matt, an exceptional defending Sr. with Luke an improving player and Chase, also expected to make significant improvement from his first season. We also had Vrank returning who has intimidating size inside.

In addition, we had a great recruiting class in Jayson Tatum a top of the line small forward, Harry Giles, Mr. all world returning from a high school knee injury, Marques Bolden another touted big, Frank Jackson, a combo guard with toughness and excellent speed and athleticism, Javin Delaurier, perhaps a project, but an outstanding athlete with a high motor and, Jack White, who I expected to be well trained in basketball fundamentals coming from the Australian leagues.

All that was somewhat tempered by the thought that our one PG with experience (Derryck Thornton) had transferred out for what he thought would be greener pastures. In addition, so many freshmen meant a lot of hard work to incorporate them into the team in a meaningful way.

Here we are now, looking at a 22 and 7 record with little hope of winning the ACC and a lower seed in the NCAA tournament than we normally receive. What happened to our great expectations along the way? We win games by small amounts and we lose games in the same way. Certainly not a dominant team this year.

Injuries in a word. Perhaps the biggest one of all was to Grayson. He has been injured off and on throughout the season and underwent a media blitz of hate due to his tripping episodes. Grayson also had to modify his game from being a prime scorer to become a scorer distributor. When healthy and when his head is on straight he has been very effective but it has been infrequent of late.

Amile had hoped for an injury free season but has been bitten by the injury bug. It is seldom clear what the real nature of his injury is due to the Duke reluctance to be specific but clearly his inability to run at full pace limits his effectiveness.

Matt has had some injuries slowing him down but seems to have gotten healthy recently. He is an excellent defender but has been very inconsistent shooting the ball. One had hoped for a steadier offensive season from him, especially when taking open 3’s.

Luke has been a bright spot of the returning players, having made excellent strides with his scoring. He has shown the ability to score from outside, midrange and in close. Of course teams are emphasizing defending him so it is not easy. We have become a team with 3 scorers on the floor with Jayson, Luke and Frank available.

Chase has not seen PT in a game for a long while now. I know he had back issues but feel something more is going on with him now. We shall see, but a 6’10” McDonald’s AA with experience, sitting on the bench has got to be a story.

The freshmen have done well in Jayson’s case, superbly. He has lived up to the hype and is clearly a OAD player. What he is not is a PG and shouldn’t be used in that way, otherwise he is a great young player. Frank is also probably exceeding expectations. His tenacity and toughness are good traits and he may match Grayson athleticism. Like many freshmen, he still has trouble reading defenses and does tend to make questionable decisions at times. He really is not a PG at this point in time, however we have to use him in that way.

Harry and Marques suffered different injuries early in the season and are freshmen big men, which means they are transitioning into the position. Both are making steady progress and perhaps we were a little optimistic thinking they would have a major impact early on. Harry in particular shows signs of having some offensive moves. Now we have to get him the ball inside and see what he can do.

Neither Javin nor Jack are seeing PT as there are just too many ahead of them in the rotation. We also learn that Jack is having his knee drained of fluid.

Bottom line is that the team has suffered a lot of injuries and has not been able to cope with them despite having a plethora of young players. We have been slow to develop our bigs this year as well due in some part to injuries. Is it likely that Grayson and Amile can return to top form for the NCAAs? You have to be an optimist to believe that. The poster who said we may win one more regular season game, one in the ACC tournament and one or two in the NCAA tourney is probably the most realistic. Hope for more naturally but realistically there are quite a few better teams out there this year.

[Neals384]

Could this be due to a lack of confidence in the ability of the young bigs to finish? Most players have a go-to move, but I've yet to see anything like that from Giles or Bolden, other than follow-up dunks.

watching harry more closely might help.


I wasn't near a television today, so I listened to Bob Harris on the radio with the sound turned off.

Looking at the box score, I think it was a good way to catch the game.

ROFLOL


Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

cant disagree with your analysis. Way to kick a guy when he's down.


I think the whole "Duke needs a 1 seed to reach the Final Four" vibe here is silly. The only reason that "pre-requisite" exists is... because we get 1 seeds so often, that we barely get the chance to make the Final Four as a lower seed!

I don't think we'll make the Final Four this year, but that's because of all the injuries and Giles/Bolden's inability to become good ACC caliber players this year (these may or may not actually be the same reasons), not some hypothetical Duke seeding rule.

This


I understand Thornton didn't exactly tear it up last year, but when considered in context, I think it's fair to say he would take this year's team up to the next level.

Extenuating factors: DT had no preaseason last year and came in young as a reclassified freshman and played 26 mpg. The "Grayson" who put up those nice stats this year is now injured, and who knows if he can get back there. Jackson is freshman now.

If Derryck had stayed, we'd have the sophomore version of him with a full preseason under his belt, taking full benefit of the freshman-sophomore jump up from those stats. An experienced PG who can create AND play defense. Remember his block to seal the win against UNC last year?

Why he transferred is a mystery to me.

good kid, bad family. He's gone, no regrets.

[duketaylor]

I apologise- losing streak is my fault. The last two games i've not been able to watch live.

Ahh, Bach!!! That explains a lot. It's fuse's fault; I scold thee!!:p

No soup (er, beer) for you!!

[FerryFor50]

I understand Thornton didn't exactly tear it up last year, but when considered in context, I think it's fair to say he would take this year's team up to the next level.

Extenuating factors: DT had no preaseason last year and came in young as a reclassified freshman and played 26 mpg. The "Grayson" who put up those nice stats this year is now injured, and who knows if he can get back there. Jackson is freshman now.

If Derryck had stayed, we'd have the sophomore version of him with a full preseason under his belt, taking full benefit of the freshman-sophomore jump up from those stats. An experienced PG who can create AND play defense. Remember his block to seal the win against UNC last year?

Why he transferred is a mystery to me.

I don't know why people keep remembering DT as some elite true PG; he wasn't. He was a weaker, smaller, less athletic version of Frank Jackson. Except he couldn't finish as well, nor shoot as well. He made as many or more freshman boneheaded decisions as Frank, especially regarding trying to over penetrate.

He was a slightly better defensive player, maybe. But he wasn't a true PG. He was an undersized combo guard.

[Duke76]

I've been a very vocal proponent of sitting Grayson Allen so his ankle has an opportunity to heal prior to post season. If he sits against Florida State on Tuesday, it will not upset me because a healthy Allen is required for Duke to make a deep run in the NCAAT. I remain committed to sitting Allen as long as required.

The result of Allen sitting is Duke playing two bigs together for a lot of minutes, which means more minutes for Harry Giles and Marques Bolden. Against Miami, Giles and Bolden did not produce much punch on offense:

Giles - 19 mins, 2 points, 8 rebounds
Bolden - 14 minutes, 0 points, 4 rebounds

Giles was credited with a steal and Bolden had three blocks so their presence was felt on defense, but when the team plays a two big men line-up we have to figure out a way to get the ball inside for points. Allen sitting will give them more game experience which might be what the team needs to learn to feed the ball to them in position to score.

In all seriousness, let me add one additional reason to sit Grayson, so it gives us a better chance to beat the cheaters 7 miles away.........would make my season even if we don't go that far in the post season

[WVDUKEFAN]

Sometimes, it just doesn't come together and the chemistry isn't there. Throw in all the injuries, and the result is bad juju. Even with the injuries, I expected this team to develop more than it has. I'm still watching with both eyes open and expecting something big. Maybe I'm one of the optimists that Bob was referring to. Out of all the teams we could potentially have to play, I think we could beat anyone on a given night. There is no dominant team in my opinion. UNC is probably playing the best ball right now and Kansas is the most complete. I still believe we are in the mix. We just have a tougher road.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Would like to see Grayson & Amile get healthy, Devils earn an ACC double bye, and avoid the Midwest or West regions in NCAAs. Ideally Harry or Bolden will clearly lock down 7th in the rotation, although both will be needed in the ACCT. Gladly take Duke's chances with a healthy rotation in the Dance.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think they're already there or on the verge, depending on how you define it.

I love me some Marques especially. 3 blocks in 14 minutes.

Hoping Coach gives Amile a rest and allows the young bigs to carry the load for a couple of games.

i'm not sure i would say that, per their production, that they are good ACC players. Their numbers indicate that they are useful to marginally useful role players, at this point in time.
Giles was on a tear, of sorts, shooting 9-10 in the previous 5 games, before shooting 1-4 last night. Bolden has shown no offensive inclination whatsoever, and has looked really weak on offense for a while.

Those two in particular, but most everybody on the team as well, looked uncomfortable and rushed on offense last night, missing makeable shots and failing to convert Oboards into anything.
I was surprised that Luke missed so many shots that it seems he usually has a pretty good touch for making. Tatum on the other hand missed a lot of shots of the stupid jack up a long fadeaway jumper crap that he was throwing up prior to that streak of games where he was practically transcendent.
I didn't think that Miami did anything in particular that stood out to me on defense, but they ended up getting Duke to take some terrible shots and to just look really stagnant and clueless on offense.
Miami took advantage of Duke's plethora of mistakes, and Duke couldn't capitalize on the opportunities it got. In the first half, when Duke's D was strangling Miami's offense, Duke's mountain of mistakes prevented them from building a comfortable lead, instead they went into the half down 1. I was hoping that they would come out focused in the 2nd half, but instead let Miami extend their lead. Duke didn't do anything to look like a team that would win a game. Give credit to Miami, they deserved to win that game.

[Rich]

Don't see a Phase V thread so I guess the only place to post my rather verbose commentary is in the current thread. Here goes:

Early in the year, I was very hopeful of having a strong season and competing for the ACC tournament title and being a force in the NCAA tournament. The reason is we had 5 returning players and what appeared to be the best recruiting class in memory. Our returners headlined Grayson, who had accumulated 2 years, playing with a high motor and reckless abandon. With him, a healthy 5th year player in Amile, who was recovered from the foot injury, Matt, an exceptional defending Sr. with Luke an improving player and Chase, also expected to make significant improvement from his first season. We also had Vrank returning who has intimidating size inside.

In addition, we had a great recruiting class in Jayson Tatum a top of the line small forward, Harry Giles, Mr. all world returning from a high school knee injury, Marques Bolden another touted big, Frank Jackson, a combo guard with toughness and excellent speed and athleticism, Javin Delaurier, perhaps a project, but an outstanding athlete with a high motor and, Jack White, who I expected to be well trained in basketball fundamentals coming from the Australian leagues.

All that was somewhat tempered by the thought that our one PG with experience (Derryck Thornton) had transferred out for what he thought would be greener pastures. In addition, so many freshmen meant a lot of hard work to incorporate them into the team in a meaningful way.

Here we are now, looking at a 22 and 7 record with little hope of winning the ACC and a lower seed in the NCAA tournament than we normally receive. What happened to our great expectations along the way? We win games by small amounts and we lose games in the same way. Certainly not a dominant team this year.

Injuries in a word. Perhaps the biggest one of all was to Grayson. He has been injured off and on throughout the season and underwent a media blitz of hate due to his tripping episodes. Grayson also had to modify his game from being a prime scorer to become a scorer distributor. When healthy and when his head is on straight he has been very effective but it has been infrequent of late.

Amile had hoped for an injury free season but has been bitten by the injury bug. It is seldom clear what the real nature of his injury is due to the Duke reluctance to be specific but clearly his inability to run at full pace limits his effectiveness.

Matt has had some injuries slowing him down but seems to have gotten healthy recently. He is an excellent defender but has been very inconsistent shooting the ball. One had hoped for a steadier offensive season from him, especially when taking open 3’s.

Luke has been a bright spot of the returning players, having made excellent strides with his scoring. He has shown the ability to score from outside, midrange and in close. Of course teams are emphasizing defending him so it is not easy. We have become a team with 3 scorers on the floor with Jayson, Luke and Frank available.

Chase has not seen PT in a game for a long while now. I know he had back issues but feel something more is going on with him now. We shall see, but a 6’10” McDonald’s AA with experience, sitting on the bench has got to be a story.

The freshmen have done well in Jayson’s case, superbly. He has lived up to the hype and is clearly a OAD player. What he is not is a PG and shouldn’t be used in that way, otherwise he is a great young player. Frank is also probably exceeding expectations. His tenacity and toughness are good traits and he may match Grayson athleticism. Like many freshmen, he still has trouble reading defenses and does tend to make questionable decisions at times. He really is not a PG at this point in time, however we have to use him in that way.

Harry and Marques suffered different injuries early in the season and are freshmen big men, which means they are transitioning into the position. Both are making steady progress and perhaps we were a little optimistic thinking they would have a major impact early on. Harry in particular shows signs of having some offensive moves. Now we have to get him the ball inside and see what he can do.

Neither Javin nor Jack are seeing PT as there are just too many ahead of them in the rotation. We also learn that Jack is having his knee drained of fluid.

Bottom line is that the team has suffered a lot of injuries and has not been able to cope with them despite having a plethora of young players. We have been slow to develop our bigs this year as well due in some part to injuries. Is it likely that Grayson and Amile can return to top form for the NCAAs? You have to be an optimist to believe that. The poster who said we may win one more regular season game, one in the ACC tournament and one or two in the NCAA tourney is probably the most realistic. Hope for more naturally but realistically there are quite a few better teams out there this year.

Good summary of the season. One minor quibble is that I believe it was communicated that Amile's injury is a bone bruise not likely to get better if he rests or worse if he plays. Others on the Board have said it can take months for something like that to heal.

[Furniture]

I don't know why people keep remembering DT as some elite true PG; he wasn't. He was a weaker, smaller, less athletic version of Frank Jackson. Except he couldn't finish as well, nor shoot as well. He made as many or more freshman boneheaded decisions as Frank, especially regarding trying to over penetrate.

He was a slightly better defensive player, maybe. But he wasn't a true PG. He was an undersized combo guard.

This is an interesting point. Is the freshman Frank better than the freshman DT. My untrained eye tells me he is.

[Rich]

This is an interesting point. Is the freshman Frank better than the freshman DT. My untrained eye tells me he is.

True, but the lament (not mine, because that shipped sailed long ago) is whether a soph DT is better than a freshman Frank.

[DBFAN]

True, but the lament (not mine, because that shipped sailed long ago) is whether a soph DT is better than a freshman Frank.

Yeah I agree, didn't think Thornton was ever gonna be a leader, or a break our player this year. The one advantage we would have had with him is that we might have been able to Rest Allen earlier and more often, because we wouldn't have to rely on just Jackson to cover for when Grayson needed the rest. But that's not the case and contemplating doesn't do anything for Duke.
Yes losing yesterday absolutely stunk. But try to remember what happened after our last losing streak.
Seriously tho I was excited to see what Jackson is capable of when he trusts himself and his team. Young Bigs got a lot of mins. If we had won with a Hobbled Grayson we would still be in the same boat, except everyone would be asking why didn't we rest Grayson in a game that in the end doesn't really matter. I know neither Grayson or Jefferson will get to 100% but every bit of rest helps. Then you consider the few days we get off after regular season is over, before ACC tourney, and the several days they get after tourney, and if they make it past first weekend they will get even more rest. If they get that far then the rest will start to pay off. Just remember things are darkest right before the light. Don't give up just yet

[BandAlum83]

Time to stop commenting on the basketball. Duke lost because we played with no sense of urgency. Miami was hungrier and it showed. They are not that good , but Duke helped them win.

If anyone really wants to know more about the impact of what basketball is used for game play, here are some articles from the LATimes, USA Today, and NBC Sports on the subject:


The college basketball difference: The ball can change from game to game (http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-different-basketballs-20160225-story.html)

Shooters find not every basketball is same in college game (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2015/01/27/shooters-find-not-every-basketball-is-same-in-college-game/22420647/)

The basketball used in college hoops gives home team advantage without deflation (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2015/01/21/the-basketball-used-in-college-hoops-gives-home-team-advantage-without-deflation/)

[AFL]

Don't see a Phase V thread so I guess the only place to post my rather verbose commentary is in the current thread. Here goes:

Early in the year, I was very hopeful of having a strong season and competing for the ACC tournament title and being a force in the NCAA tournament. The reason is we had 5 returning players and what appeared to be the best recruiting class in memory. Our returners headlined Grayson, who had accumulated 2 years, playing with a high motor and reckless abandon. With him, a healthy 5th year player in Amile, who was recovered from the foot injury, Matt, an exceptional defending Sr. with Luke an improving player and Chase, also expected to make significant improvement from his first season. We also had Vrank returning who has intimidating size inside.

In addition, we had a great recruiting class in Jayson Tatum a top of the line small forward, Harry Giles, Mr. all world returning from a high school knee injury, Marques Bolden another touted big, Frank Jackson, a combo guard with toughness and excellent speed and athleticism, Javin Delaurier, perhaps a project, but an outstanding athlete with a high motor and, Jack White, who I expected to be well trained in basketball fundamentals coming from the Australian leagues.

All that was somewhat tempered by the thought that our one PG with experience (Derryck Thornton) had transferred out for what he thought would be greener pastures. In addition, so many freshmen meant a lot of hard work to incorporate them into the team in a meaningful way.

Here we are now, looking at a 22 and 7 record with little hope of winning the ACC and a lower seed in the NCAA tournament than we normally receive. What happened to our great expectations along the way? We win games by small amounts and we lose games in the same way. Certainly not a dominant team this year.

Injuries in a word. Perhaps the biggest one of all was to Grayson. He has been injured off and on throughout the season and underwent a media blitz of hate due to his tripping episodes. Grayson also had to modify his game from being a prime scorer to become a scorer distributor. When healthy and when his head is on straight he has been very effective but it has been infrequent of late.

Amile had hoped for an injury free season but has been bitten by the injury bug. It is seldom clear what the real nature of his injury is due to the Duke reluctance to be specific but clearly his inability to run at full pace limits his effectiveness.

Matt has had some injuries slowing him down but seems to have gotten healthy recently. He is an excellent defender but has been very inconsistent shooting the ball. One had hoped for a steadier offensive season from him, especially when taking open 3’s.

Luke has been a bright spot of the returning players, having made excellent strides with his scoring. He has shown the ability to score from outside, midrange and in close. Of course teams are emphasizing defending him so it is not easy. We have become a team with 3 scorers on the floor with Jayson, Luke and Frank available.

Chase has not seen PT in a game for a long while now. I know he had back issues but feel something more is going on with him now. We shall see, but a 6’10” McDonald’s AA with experience, sitting on the bench has got to be a story.

The freshmen have done well in Jayson’s case, superbly. He has lived up to the hype and is clearly a OAD player. What he is not is a PG and shouldn’t be used in that way, otherwise he is a great young player. Frank is also probably exceeding expectations. His tenacity and toughness are good traits and he may match Grayson athleticism. Like many freshmen, he still has trouble reading defenses and does tend to make questionable decisions at times. He really is not a PG at this point in time, however we have to use him in that way.

Harry and Marques suffered different injuries early in the season and are freshmen big men, which means they are transitioning into the position. Both are making steady progress and perhaps we were a little optimistic thinking they would have a major impact early on. Harry in particular shows signs of having some offensive moves. Now we have to get him the ball inside and see what he can do.

Neither Javin nor Jack are seeing PT as there are just too many ahead of them in the rotation. We also learn that Jack is having his knee drained of fluid.

Bottom line is that the team has suffered a lot of injuries and has not been able to cope with them despite having a plethora of young players. We have been slow to develop our bigs this year as well due in some part to injuries. Is it likely that Grayson and Amile can return to top form for the NCAAs? You have to be an optimist to believe that. The poster who said we may win one more regular season game, one in the ACC tournament and one or two in the NCAA tourney is probably the most realistic. Hope for more naturally but realistically there are quite a few better teams out there this year.
Your analysis is absolutely spot-on. Definitely the best post I've read here in a while. Covers all the bases.

[NYBri]

These last two road losses are disappointing in this long, strange season...unlike any other I can remember. Usually at 20-7, I'm hoping for a good showing in the big dance, but this year is so weird, I can see us winning it all if everyone gets healthy at the same time.

Strange season, indeed.

[Devilwin]

I agree. Very insightful post. Tells the main reasons for our problems without making them look like excuses. Excellent. Deserves a cold Dos Equis in an iced mug..

[bluedev_92]

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.

How did the vaunted UNC team manage to lose to Miami?? What's yoy analysis there? I saw this game as a hard fought game where we had an awful lot of shots rim out. One or two fall & different outcome. This is despite our injuries.

[uh_no]

all
I noticed some very tight rims for Jones and Kennard in particular. The home team selects the brand of the game ball. I dont know what brand Miami uses. I am not even sure what brand we use in Cameron. I believe the Badgers use "the rock".

duke uses Nike.

[NSDukeFan]

http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2017/02/eye-of-the-storm-miami-deals-duke-mens-basketball-second-straight-road-loss

Jefferson's foot is a problem again. Jones please put in extra time on your shooting. You will be open and you need to knock a few down.Amile was not physically able to run very well today. Big opportunity for Giles and Bolden against Florida State to show us some better playing. Florida State is much better than Miami. They are very good and Duke will have to step up to win this game.
Matt has struggled with his shot lately and is a much better shooter than he has shown. Whether that is from the defensive efforts he has had to exert or just a mental block, hopefully he can put a nice streak together to end his career. Reminds me of another of my favourite players (Singler) who played well his final year but didn't shoot well. I am not part of the program and not an insider, but my guess is that Matt probably is getting quite a bit of shooting practice and hasn't just neglected it lately.

I agree. Duke played D like a contender today. If we can improve the scoring with a big lineup featuring Giles and/or Bolden playing significant minutes we'll have better odds at a deep tourney run. Refs basically letting them play held scoring down too imo. No one had more than 3 fouls on either team and it was a physical game. Miami played 8 and Duke only 7 so maybe the officiating actually worked slightly in Duke's favor. The difference imo was fast break points. Duke had numerous bad TOs for easy baskets but struggled to score in transition.
I was very impressed with the overall defence. I don't know if the pace was really slow, but the number of points given up was very solid. The issue was offence and that is a great question. Can Duke have an efficient offense with two bigs? Maybe the team has to go to the post more often on offence for that to work.

I think that is a great point about Amile. He can't be the middle of the zone because he doesn't have a jump shot. In terms of Luke I think he was trying too hard to make up for Grayson's absence. Yes Miami played good defense but he pushed things on several possessions. Duke shot poorly for the second game in a row. Hopefully they get out of this shooting slump soon.
I generally like Amile in the middle of the zone, especially in a two big lineup as he tends to make good decisions and can score from there. I believe Tatum and Kennard are even bigger threats from there in a one big lineup.

NC State loss at home was much worse.
Definitely

Jayson makes a jumper to make the score 45-46. He strips Miami of the ball and misses the fastbreak layup that would have put Duke up 1. Duke did not score another point until Luke's free throws with 30 seconds left. Jayson makes that and we might be talking about a close win. I thought the rims were incredibly tight and it was like shooting on a double rim at the playground where your shot has to be perfect.

I thought the D was passable today other than Bruce Brown playing out of his mind. I think Grayson should sit on Tuesday and Amile should play until the first TV timeout and sit. Apparently Amile cannot even run in practice according to K's press conference.

This is the one Duke team where any tournament result would not surprise me. I hope that getting Allen and Amile rest and Bolden, Giles, and Frank significant minutes pays off in the next month but it feels like we've been saying that all year.
The only final NCAAT results that haven't surprised me in the last 20 years were in 2001, 2010 and 2015.

I dunno about that. I thought once again opposing guards had success taking a hampered Amile off the dribble when he was at the 4.

But I agree that we couldn't have kept Tatum at the 4 for 40 minutes with just 3 guards available. We had to see at least some two-big lineups. Once we get Grayson healthy, we basically never have to see two-big offense again, thankfully.
The good thing was two big lineups have often struggled defensively, as we have not been able to stay in front of perimeter players. With the big hedge and switch back for the bigs, this wasn't an issue today. There may still be a place for two big lineups for the team this season?

Full disclosure...I didn't get to see but the last four minutes of this game. Just enough to see Tatum and Jones both take horrible shots with the game on the line. Somebody up thread called it hero ball, and that's spot on. They are not working together as a team to get good shots, no patience, it's all one one one, and that has been the MO for a while. That dependence on individual shooting has saved several games this season and given them a false sense of security, IMO,but they will have to work harder together for better looks if they expect to go far. This team has shown no shot discipline, or ability to score consistently in the post, and its catching up with them.

And I know this won't be popular, but it's almost tournament time and coach K has not developed Giles or Bolden very well into the offense. NBA talent doesn't get touches...what's up with that?

I know there have been injury issues, both his and the players, but this has not been one of his best coaching efforts this season.
Very impressive that you were able to get all that out of four minutes of watching. Sorry for the snarkiness, but Jones took an open 3 off the dribble in the last two minutes when the team needed quick scores. I would have preferred Giles and Bolden to be a greater part of the offence this year, but considering it took Roy 4 years to get much out of Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks, and several for James MacAdoo, I don't know if the poor coaching comment is appropriate from a UNC fan.

[CameronWade]

I've been a reader of these forums for a couple years now but have not posted before as I felt that I didn't have much to add to the conversation. However, after watching us play Miami this weekend and reading some of the post game thoughts, I've decided to come out of the shadows to get something off my chest.

There are multiple comments in this thread arguing the importance of receiving a top two seed on our chances of reaching the Final Four this year, and the rebuttal that correlation does not imply causation has also surfaced. It is certainly true that a higher seed generally results in an easier path to the Final Four, but I think it is also important to recognize that the teams that received a 1 or 2 seed get that seed because the selection committee has determined that they are one of the top 4 or 8 teams in the country based upon the season's body of work. Therefore, the mere fact that a team is a 1 or 2 seed means that the committee thinks that they are better than a 3 or 4 seed and thus should be more likely to make a deep run, so when we received a 1 or 2 seed, we were generally a better team than we received lower seeds.

If the committee seeds Duke this year as a 4, 5, or even 6 seed in the NCAA tournament this year, it's probably a justifiable seeding based on the body of work. However, given the stretches of solid play that this year's team has put together when everyone is healthy, they have earned the benefit of my doubt, and I believe that if everyone is healthy come tournament time, there are not 12, 16, or 20 teams that have a better chance of winning six in a row. This board was pretty high on our team after beating UNC in Cameron, and while the couple games after that were not the blow outs that most of us would like to see, we played well enough to win and escaped with the W. Then at Syracuse, we looked like the better team for a lot of the game and probably lost because of our inability to finish transition baskets in the first half. Against Miami, I thought like we also looked like the better team and missed a lot of open shots that caused us to fall short. Yes I would have liked to see us manage the last couple minutes of each of those games better, but we have closed out important games this year and I believe we will be able to do so on neutral site games in a tournament setting. UNC may earn a 1 seed, and we've already beaten them this year (granted they were a little short-handed). Kansas is in all likelihood a 1 seed this year, and we took them to the buzzer without Jayson Tatum (who is unquestionably a key component of our offense). We can play well enough to beat anyone on a neutral site as long as we are healthy.

A Final Four run would certainly take some better play than we've seen recently as well as a little but of luck, but I think that we are going to be a dangerous, under-seeded team in this year's tournament if we can get Allen and Amile healthy in time. I think it's fair to say that a lot of us are disappointed in the way that this season has turned out, but that is not the fault of the players or the coaches. This team has faced a lot of adversity, and quite frankly, I'm proud of the way that each of our players and coaches has handled it both individually (Grayson Allen with the media circus) and as a team (galvanizing around one another and seeming to enjoy playing as a team).

If I recall correctly, Jon Scheyer was asked to share his favorite Duke moment heading into the tournament his senior year, and his reply was "It hasn't happened yet." We all know how that year turned out. While this year has been a disappointment for myriad reasons thus far, I'm hoping that we have a similar mindset heading into this year's tournament as I believe that there may be a great moment or two yet to come.

[Rich]

Kansas is in all likelihood a 1 seed this year, and we took them to the buzzer without Jayson Tatum (who is unquestionably a key component of our offense). We can play well enough to beat anyone on a neutral site as long as we are healthy.

Thanks for posting. Your insights are welcome. One minor quibble, though, I don't think we can realistically count a November game at this point in the season (on either side). Duke and Kansas are both very different teams at this point in the season.

I do agree, however, that a healthy Duke team can beat anyone in the country at a neutral site and the Tournament is based so much on match ups more than anything else. So, depending on who is in our bracket (hopefully minimal super quick point guards) and how healthy we are will dictate how far we go.

[FerryFor50]

Thanks for posting. Your insights are welcome. One minor quibble, though, I don't think we can realistically count a November game at this point in the season (on either side). Duke and Kansas are both very different teams at this point in the season.

I do agree, however, that a healthy Duke team can beat anyone in the country at a neutral site and the Tournament is based so much on match ups more than anything else. So, depending on who is in our bracket (hopefully minimal super quick point guards) and how healthy we are will dictate how far we go.

Kansas is arguably less talented now than at the time Duke played them; they lost their freshmen five star big for the year to injury and who knows when a Jayhawk is going to run afoul of the law next. 😎

Combine that with Duke having its three previously injured freshmen on the floor (albeit with a hobbled Amile and Grayson and no Jeter) and I'd say Duke stands a great chance on a neutral floor.

Would hate to ser Kentucky in the tournament though. Matchup nightmare.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Phoenix would be a neutral site for both Duke and KU. Technically Kansas City would be a neutral site for KU, but the reality is it would be far from neutral. Same thing for 'Zona in Phoenix.

Would take 'Zona in a heartbeat since it would be at worst national semis. KU in KC could mean a S16 (OK) or an E8 (good).

[Kedsy]

If the committee seeds Duke this year as a 4, 5, or even 6 seed in the NCAA tournament this year, it's probably a justifiable seeding based on the body of work. However, given the stretches of solid play that this year's team has put together when everyone is healthy, they have earned the benefit of my doubt, and I believe that if everyone is healthy come tournament time, there are not 12, 16, or 20 teams that have a better chance of winning six in a row.

Great first post, CW. You should definitely contribute more often.

I agree that, in general, Duke has as good a chance as any to win six (or four) in a row, but who we play matters a lot. I assume everyone would agree that we'd have a tougher time winning four in a row against Kansas, Arizona, Oregon, and Louisville than against Penn, Yale, Columbia, and Dartmouth?

As a less extreme example, let's take last year's UNC team that was seeded #1 in the East and lost in the championship game. Using Pomeroy's model (pre-tournament numbers) to determine a team's chance of winning (e.g., according to Pomeroy, UNC had a 97.49% chance of beating its first round opponent, FDU), we can compare UNC's chances of making the Final Four as the #1 in the East vs. the same team's chances of doing so as (for example) the #4 seed or #6 seed in the South. Here goes:

UNC 2016, chalk path as #1 in the East: FDU (97.49%) * USC (80.39%) * Kentucky (58.04%) * Xavier (65.14%) = 29.63% chance of making Final Four;

UNC 2016, actual path as #1 in the East: FDU (97.49%) * Providence (79.95%) * Indiana (64.83%) * Notre Dame (78.48%) = 39.66% chance of making Final Four;

UNC 2016, as #4 in the South (chalk and actual path the same): Hawaii (83.09%) * Maryland (69.86%) * Kansas (45.34%) * Villanova (52.36%) = 13.78% chance of making the Final Four;

UNC 2016, as #6 in the South (chalk and actual path the same): Wichita (63.67%) * Miami (64.53%) * Villanova (52.36%) * Kansas (45.34%) = 9.75% chance of making the Final Four.

As the #4 seed in the South, the exact same UNC team would have had approximately one-third as high a chance to make the Final Four as it did in the actual games as #1 in the East. As the South's #6 seed, the exact same UNC team would have had approximately one-fourth as high a chance as they actually did as #1 in the East. Who you play matters.

So, while I agree that Duke has as good a chance as any to win 4 (or 6) games in a row, the slate of games we'll have to go through will be much more difficult as a #3 or #4 (or #5 or #6) than they would as a #1 or #2, necessarily meaning that our chances will be much lower.

[g-money]

I echo the many posts in this thread about "hero ball" (including Wheat - as much as I hate to admit it, he has a point). If were Coach K, I would break down every play of the last five minutes of this game with each guard on the team individually. The conversation would go something like this:

Coach: Why did you take that shot?
Player: We needed a basket and I thought I could score.
Coach: Did it work?

To me the key concept for the rest of this season is "sharing". If our guys can learn to work together to get a great shot instead of hero-balling their way into tough one-on-one shots, we can make it to the Final Four. If we continue to run our offense like we did yesterday, somebody will probably knock us off in the second or third round when the pull-up threes and off-balance drives just aren't falling.

For young guys like Jayson, Coach K should make the point that NBA scouts are taking notice too. The 'ball-stopping Carmellos' of the world are aging dinosaurs in the modern NBA, which is predicated on flow, cutting, and ball movement.

[duketaylor]

My thought exactly.

Absolutely no second-thoughts on resting GA or Amile; I expect them to sit Tuesday, maybe more. I'm fine with that, despite outcomes as it forces K to use some others whom I think we'll need for a huge run. No problem with that from me. If need be, sit them during acct, too. One goal for this season, IMO.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

How did the vaunted UNC team manage to lose to Miami?? What's yoy analysis there? I saw this game as a hard fought game where we had an awful lot of shots rim out. One or two fall & different outcome. This is despite our injuries.

UNC shot horribly, didn't work hard enough inside and got out rebounded....and Miami played well. It's hard to win them all...

[uh_no]

It's hard to win them all...

yep. even UNC has managed 4 wins against duke in the past 7 years.

[arnie]

yep. even UNC has managed 4 wins against duke in the past 7 years.

Now don't let facts get in the way. K's done such a horrible job this year, we may only beat the Holes twice.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Very impressive that you were able to get all that out of four minutes of watching. Sorry for the snarkiness, but Jones took an open 3 off the dribble in the last two minutes when the team needed quick scores. I would have preferred Giles and Bolden to be a greater part of the offence this year, but considering it took Roy 4 years to get much out of Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks, and several for James MacAdoo, I don't know if the poor coaching comment is appropriate from a UNC fan.

I've been around here 20+ years now, and I've always been clear I have great respect for coach K.
That said, there is nothing wrong with challenging his handling of Giles and Bolton this season. It's what fans do.

If you thought that shot off the dribble by Jones was a good one that early in the shot clock, down only two on the road with two plus minutes left, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. If it had been a kick out catch and shoot, with his feet set, maybe...he can make that, but the way Kennard has been shooting, it would have been much smarter to move the ball and set a pick or two to get him a look, or Tatum. There was plenty of time.

I should also add it would have been better to try and get it inside for a high percentage shot, maybe get an and one...but what am I thinking, this is Duke we're talking about.

Roy got both Brice and McAdoo to the league, and Hicks will get a shot as well. They were not NBA talents when they arrived at UNC, I don't care what they were rated. Roy developed Brice into a first round selection, his improvement was steady each year. I thought McAdoo left too early and would have been an even better player with another year to work on his fundamentals, and he'd have been a much better NBA player than he has been.

Roy develops players as well as any coach in college basketball. Meeks is another example of that as well.

[rsvman]

I thought I'd add that if we had a healthy Grayson Allen, both the Syracuse and Miami games would've likely been hard-fought wins. The team would now likely be 12-4 after starting the ACC season poorly, and we would be on an extended win streak.
In that case I think the tenor of these discussions would be considerably different.

We don't have a lot of leeway, but if we can get people healthy we are going to be a tough out.

[Kfanarmy]

I've been around here 20+ years now, and I've always been clear I have great respect for coach K.
That said, there is nothing wrong with challenging his handling of Giles and Bolton this season. It's what fans do.

If you thought that shot off the dribble by Jones was a good one that early in the shot clock, down only two on the road with two plus minutes left, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. If it had been a kick out catch and shoot
...

Because of his prior injuries, and generally being much less effective than anticipated, I am not sure about Giles, but I agree the lack of any serious focus in getting the ball inside has been mind boggling. Duke has been, IMO, pretty spotty for years at this, and usually has done so primarily to play inside out. Bolton has shown willingness to fight for position, but is virtually never rewarded with the ball. His growth is being sacrificed for outside shooters. When the guards don't shoot well, Duke does not respond well.

I believe there has also been an over reliance on talent over game planning and designing plays. I just rarely see anything like a designed play. Obviously none were executed in the final few minutes these last two games.

[Devilsforlife]

Why is Bolden being called "Bolton"? He's not from England, as far as I know.

[Kfanarmy]

Why is Bolden being called "Bolton"? He's not from England, as far as I know.

Recency bias? Mea Culpa...inattention to detail.

[Fish80]

Why is Bolden being called "Bolton"? He's not from England, as far as I know.

Well I never been to England
But I kinda like the Beatles

[Kfanarmy]

I thought I'd add that if we had a healthy Grayson Allen, both the Syracuse and Miami games would've likely been hard-fought wins. The team would now likely be 12-4 after starting the ACC season poorly, and we would be on an extended win streak.
In that case I think the tenor of these discussions would be considerably different.

We don't have a lot of leeway, but if we can get people healthy we are going to be a tough out.

True, but GA seems to be the only guy on the team who has an extra "refuse to lose" gear, and he is injured. They will be a difficult out, but that may happen anywhere, game one to game six.

[Owen Meany]

I've been around here 20+ years now, and I've always been clear I have great respect for coach K.
That said, there is nothing wrong with challenging his handling of Giles and Bolton this season. It's what fans do.


Roy got both Brice and McAdoo to the league, and Hicks will get a shot as well. They were not NBA talents when they arrived at UNC, I don't care what they were rated. Roy developed Brice into a first round selection, his improvement was steady each year. I thought McAdoo left too early and would have been an even better player with another year to work on his fundamentals, and he'd have been a much better NBA player than he has been.
.

Some posters disagree with responding to Wheat's posts because it can hi-jack threads. Others think its important to respond and offer a defense of the team/coaches, etc. I am in the latter camp, so please excuse me if you are not.



Wheat,

Your post is part of an on-going critique of Duke, its usage of big men, etc. while glossing over UNC's own deficiencies.



UNC currently has the highest rated senior and 2 highest rated juniors remaining in all of college basketball. If I were a UNC fan I would avoid the subject of player usage/development.



Giles is not close to the player he was before after missing 2 of the last 3 years with major knee injuries. Some opposing fans were so concerned for his well-being they suggested he should not play this year. I think its disingenuous to simply state that Coach K isn't getting touches for NBA talent - what's up with that?



You give Williams credit for getting Johnson (ranked 40 RSCI) drafted 25th. Miles Plumlee (who's post-Duke commitment bump moved him from unranked to 81) - was drafted 26th - how about some kudos?



You claim Williams got McAdoo to the league. Seriously? He was touted as a likely top 5 pick out of high school but went undrafted after seeing his draft stock drop every single year he was at UNC.

After his freshman year...
James Michael McAdoo returning ESPN
McAdoo's parents, Janet and Ronnie, said during a phone interview Thursday that the information they, and UNC's coaching staff, gathered confirmed James Michael likely would have been a lottery pick.

Zeller, McAdoo among impact sophomores returning next season
Had He Left: McAdoo might have been drafted ahead of John Henson or Tyler Zeller.
He's the league's best pro prospect for 2013.


Are you suggesting that Roy Williams had McAdoo turn down a lottery selection and return for his sophomore year when he was not an NBA talent? I would think if this was the case he would have told McAdoo to take the money and run since returning would only hurt him.



After McAdoo's senior year...
Will be questions as to lack of skill progression over his time in college, never managed to get his playing production and efficiency close to where it was projected with his combination of size, athleticism and basketball pedigree ...



I could go on because its not that difficult to find deficiencies with any team you choose to focus on. But, if you want to be point out the flaws of other teams, you should at least acknowledge those of your own.

[jv001]

I've seen teams use picks to get guys open against the zone. Did we try that in the last game or Cuse game? It seemed we just passed the ball around for the majority of the shot clock and then shot a 3. Just wondering. Help, Trouble. GoDuke!

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat,

Your post is part of an on-going critique of Duke, its usage of big men, etc. while glossing over UNC's own deficiencies.



UNC currently has the highest rated senior and 2 highest rated juniors remaining in all of college basketball. If I were a UNC fan I would avoid the subject of player usage/development.

Who cares about ratings? Can't you look at those players? That "highest rated senior" was way overrated as a player based only on his athleticism. He's gotten better every year and when he gets his NBA shot, he'll be prepared. One of those Juniors still around has been battling injuries his whole career, the other still around is about to become the ACC POY and in the discussion for NPOY. Neither were anywhere close to the level of play we now see as a fresh/soph, they have developed greatly.

Giles is not close to the player he was before after missing 2 of the last 3 years with major knee injuries. Some opposing fans were so concerned for his well-being they suggested he should not play this year. I think its disingenuous to simply state that Coach K isn't getting touches for NBA talent - what's up with that?

i just don't understand coach K's logic with how he uses Giles and Bolden, and I question what he's doing with them. Somebody please explain it to me? If Roy sat those two "highly rated players", or didn't use their talent effectively, I can't imagine the criticism he'd receive here.


You give Williams credit for getting Johnson (ranked 40 RSCI) drafted 25th. Miles Plumlee (who's post-Duke commitment bump moved him from unranked to 81) - was drafted 26th - how about some kudos?

Kudos.

You claim Williams got McAdoo to the league. Seriously? He was touted as a likely top 5 pick out of high school but went undrafted after seeing his draft stock drop every single year he was at UNC.

After his freshman year...
James Michael McAdoo returning ESPN
McAdoo's parents, Janet and Ronnie, said during a phone interview Thursday that the information they, and UNC's coaching staff, gathered confirmed James Michael likely would have been a lottery pick.

Zeller, McAdoo among impact sophomores returning next season
Had He Left: McAdoo might have been drafted ahead of John Henson or Tyler Zeller.
He's the league's best pro prospect for 2013.


Are you suggesting that Roy Williams had McAdoo turn down a lottery selection and return for his sophomore year when he was not an NBA talent? I would think if this was the case he would have told McAdoo to take the money and run since returning would only hurt him.

He had talent, I should correct that, but I'm suggesting McAdoo was not ready for the NBA and would have benefited by more coaching form Roy. It would have probably helped him to stick in the league. The NBA doesn't care about the player when they find out the potential doesn't translate into play. When they do find out they misjudge you, you're out the next year and they're off to the next guy. It's a tough business. That said, sure, he probably should have left, locked in the money, if he was going to be lottery as a freshman, but that was his call.



I could go on because its not that difficult to find deficiencies with any team you choose to focus on. But, if you want to be point out the flaws of other teams, you should at least acknowledge those of your own.

UNC has plenty of flaws, I can agree on that. If you want to discuss UNC, I'd be all in, and will always give my honest opinion. But I'm not going to start that thread here.

[Indoor66]

UNC has plenty of flaws, I can agree on that. If you want to discuss UNC, I'd be all in, and will always give my honest opinion. But I'm not going to start that thread here.

Please don't. 😎

[weezie]

I've seen teams use picks to get guys open against the zone. Did we try that in the last game or Cuse game? It seemed we just passed the ball around for the majority of the shot clock and then shot a 3. Just wondering. Help, Trouble. GoDuke!

Must be the curse of the wahoo.

[FerryFor50]

UNC has plenty of flaws, I can agree on that. If you want to discuss UNC, I'd be all in, and will always give my honest opinion. But I'm not going to start that thread here.

Re: Giles and Bolden...

The amount of playing time has a variety of reasons. Giles has been seeing more and more minutes lately, but coming off a major knee surgery and subsequent minor surgery, K is bringing him along slowly. This is for his benefit, as well as Duke's.

Bolden's playing time has also been derailed by injury (word was he was on track to start from day one before he got hurt). But Bolden is also limited by foul trouble, matchups and a logjam at the 5.

Both Giles and Bolden have to play behind Jefferson, and we all know how K trusts in his seniors, especially ones that call out defensive assignments.

On offense, the reason Bolden and Giles don't get a ton of touches in the post likely have to do with how they look in the post in practice, as well as how ineffective they've been in the post (Bolden especially) with the limited touches they've received. Remember, Jahlil was a pure post player and the offense ran through him predominantly. That was no accident; Jah was the best option on offense every time.

Combine that with how the entire season has gone mostly sideways with injuries and continuity problems and the lack of a true PG and that's why you don't see Bolden and Giles used in a classic post. The offense is dribble/drive and has reverted a bit to living by the three. I just don't think the team has an offensive identity, which has been good and bad at times. Good because any one of the 3-4 offensive threats can go off at any given time. Bad because, sometimes, they can't figure out who's supposed to go off.

[Indoor66]

Re: Giles and Bolden...

The amount of playing time has a variety of reasons. Giles has been seeing more and more minutes lately, but coming off a major knee surgery and subsequent minor surgery, K is bringing him along slowly. This is for his benefit, as well as Duke's.

Bolden's playing time has also been derailed by injury (word was he was on track to start from day one before he got hurt). But Bolden is also limited by foul trouble, matchups and a logjam at the 5.

Both Giles and Bolden have to play behind Jefferson, and we all know how K trusts in his seniors, especially ones that call out defensive assignments.

On offense, the reason Bolden and Giles don't get a ton of touches in the post likely have to do with how they look in the post in practice, as well as how ineffective they've been in the post (Bolden especially) with the limited touches they've received. Remember, Jahlil was a pure post player and the offense ran through him predominantly. That was no accident; Jah was the best option on offense every time.

Combine that with how the entire season has gone mostly sideways with injuries and continuity problems and the lack of a true PG and that's why you don't see Bolden and Giles used in a classic post. The offense is dribble/drive and has reverted a bit to living by the three. I just don't think the team has an offensive identity, which has been good and bad at times. Good because any one of the 3-4 offensive threats can go off at any given time. Bad because, sometimes, they can't figure out who's supposed to go off.

To me this is the key point. Injury has derailed every scheme. It is difficult to have continuity in an offense or a defense when the parts keep changing (whether by personnel availability or by personnel physical limitations.) It has to be total frustrating to all involved with the team. Who can show up today? :mad::cool:

[kAzE]

To me this is the key point. Injury has derailed every scheme. It is difficult to have continuity in an offense or a defense when the parts keep changing (whether by personnel availability or by personnel physical limitations.) It has to be total frustrating to all involved with the team. Who can show up today? :mad::cool:

Really good point. Earlier in the year, before Amile hurt his foot, we were able to feed him in the post, and he could either find a way to score or draw enough help to find an open shooter or cutter. Since the injury, his post scoring has gone down the toilet, and on offense, he's become basically a dump off/put back guy only. He's had some chances, but a ridiculous number of his shots have rolled around the rim and missed lately. He still doesn't look right to me.

Grayson when healthy is about as unstoppable as a college guard gets, but he REALLY tore up his ankle against Clemson. I'm not sure if anyone else really saw the injury happen, but on the first replay of it, I thought he snapped his ankle in two. It looked gruesome, and I'm not surprised at all that he's had the worst stretch of games in his career in the 4 games before Miami.

This season has been a roller coaster of injuries non stop. Will we manage to all get healthy at the same time? If we do, we can still win the national championship. I still believe we can do it.

[FerryFor50]

Really good point. Earlier in the year, before Amile hurt his foot, we were able to feed him in the post, and he could either find a way to score or draw enough help to find an open shooter or cutter. Since the injury, his post scoring has gone down the toilet, and on offense, he's become basically a dump off/put back guy only. He's had some chances, but a ridiculous number of his shots have rolled around the rim and missed lately. He still doesn't look right to me.

Grayson when healthy is about as unstoppable as a college guard gets, but he REALLY tore up his ankle against Clemson. I'm not sure if anyone else really saw the injury happen, but on the first replay of it, I thought he snapped his ankle in two. It looked gruesome, and I'm not surprised at all that he's had the worst stretch of games in his career in the 4 games before Miami.

This season has been a roller coaster of injuries non stop. Will we manage to all get healthy at the same time? If we do, we can still win the national championship. I still believe we can do it.

Having badly sprained my ankle several times, I couldn't believe he played less than a week later. Modern sports medicine is crazy.

[CDu]

Re: Giles and Bolden...

The amount of playing time has a variety of reasons. Giles has been seeing more and more minutes lately, but coming off a major knee surgery and subsequent minor surgery, K is bringing him along slowly. This is for his benefit, as well as Duke's.

Bolden's playing time has also been derailed by injury (word was he was on track to start from day one before he got hurt). But Bolden is also limited by foul trouble, matchups and a logjam at the 5.

Both Giles and Bolden have to play behind Jefferson, and we all know how K trusts in his seniors, especially ones that call out defensive assignments.

On offense, the reason Bolden and Giles don't get a ton of touches in the post likely have to do with how they look in the post in practice, as well as how ineffective they've been in the post (Bolden especially) with the limited touches they've received. Remember, Jahlil was a pure post player and the offense ran through him predominantly. That was no accident; Jah was the best option on offense every time.

Combine that with how the entire season has gone mostly sideways with injuries and continuity problems and the lack of a true PG and that's why you don't see Bolden and Giles used in a classic post. The offense is dribble/drive and has reverted a bit to living by the three. I just don't think the team has an offensive identity, which has been good and bad at times. Good because any one of the 3-4 offensive threats can go off at any given time. Bad because, sometimes, they can't figure out who's supposed to go off.

I completely agree on Giles, but I don't know how much (if any) stock to put into the bolded part above for Bolden. I mean, we were told that Marshall Plumlee - who played just 50 minutes as a redshirt freshman a year later and with fewer bodies in front of him - was among the top 6 players prior to his injury as a true freshman. We were also told during Alex Murphy's true freshman year that he was possibly a 4-year starter. We were told by some that Seth Curry was the best player in practice on the 2010 team. Coach K seems to have a habit of talking up players who aren't available or who have been limited by injury. So I suspect this is true with the Bolden point bolded above. I think the main reason Bolden doesn't play is because he is the #3 center on the team, and Coach K doesn't like to play 3 deep at center unless absolutely forced to do so (by injury or foul trouble).

As for Giles, he is doing basically exactly what Tony Bradley is doing right now. Bradley averages 19.9 points and 14.4 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting 56.0% from the field. Giles averages 15.3 points and 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes while shootin 56.7% from the field. Considering differences in pace of play between UNC and Duke, that's basically a wash. And considering that Giles hadn't played basketball for much of the last two years due to the ACL tears and missed all of this past summer and fall with a minor procedure on his knee, that sounds about right that he's only on par with another highly-touted freshman big.

[FerryFor50]

I completely agree on Giles, but I don't know how much (if any) stock to put into the bolded part above for Bolden. I mean, we were told that Marshall Plumlee - who played just 50 minutes as a redshirt freshman a year later and with fewer bodies in front of him - was among the top 6 players prior to his injury as a true freshman. We were also told during Alex Murphy's true freshman year that he was possibly a 4-year starter. We were told by some that Seth Curry was the best player in practice on the 2010 team. Coach K seems to have a habit of talking up players who aren't available or who have been limited by injury. So I suspect this is true with the Bolden point bolded above. I think the main reason Bolden doesn't play is because he is the #3 center on the team, and Coach K doesn't like to play 3 deep at center unless absolutely forced to do so (by injury or foul trouble).

Can't dispute that. I was just parroting the company line. :cool:

[CDu]

Can't dispute that. I was just parroting the company line. :cool:

And to be fair, past history isn't necessarily indicative of current results. So it's certainly possible that Bolden was looking like a stud in practice. Of course, that was practice without Giles, for what it is worth.

And when we brought Giles back, we did try starting him alongside Jefferson and Tatum. It wasn't until we played and struggled with the two-big lineups that we scrapped it quickly and went to Tatum at the 4. So I guess it is possible that the staff envisioned Bolden as filling the Giles role until Giles returned, and that they just didn't realize from practice (hard to simulate how things will work until live competition) that Tatum didn't work best/well at the 3 along with two interior-oriented bigs. I might even be sold on this line of thinking.

So I guess there are lots of possibilities to explain the company line, ranging from "it's true" to "it's true but only on a technicality" to "it's just coachspeak". We'll never know.

The long and short of it is that Giles appears to be playing about how we'd expect for a big shaking off years of rust from 3 (2 major, 1 minor) knee procedures over the last few years. Given that we have an All-ACC caliber 5th year senior in front of him, his production is right in line with that of another McDonald's big man from this class. And Bolden's stats make sense when you combine his injury with the fact that there are two guys in front of him at his position.

[FerryFor50]

And to be fair, past history isn't necessarily indicative of current results. So it's certainly possible that Bolden was looking like a stud in practice. Of course, that was practice without Giles, for what it is worth.

And when we brought Giles back, we did try starting him alongside Jefferson and Tatum. It wasn't until we played and struggled with the two-big lineups that we scrapped it quickly and went to Tatum at the 4. So I guess it is possible that the staff envisioned Bolden as filling the Giles role until Giles returned, and that they just didn't realize from practice (hard to simulate how things will work until live competition) that Tatum didn't work best/well at the 3 along with two interior-oriented bigs. I might even be sold on this line of thinking.

So I guess there are lots of possibilities to explain the company line, ranging from "it's true" to "it's true but only on a technicality" to "it's just coachspeak". We'll never know.

The long and short of it is that Giles appears to be playing about how we'd expect for a big shaking off years of rust from 3 (2 major, 1 minor) knee procedures over the last few years. Given that we have an All-ACC caliber 5th year senior in front of him, his production is right in line with that of another McDonald's big man from this class. And Bolden's stats make sense when you combine his injury with the fact that there are two guys in front of him at his position.

To expound on your points...

A lot of the issues with playing 2 bigs in college is that most college teams are smaller in general and don't put a classic 4 and 5 on the court. Plus, with Duke's commitment to switching on defense, you end up with a slow footed 4 on a fast guard, which does two things:

- Lets the guard penetrate easier
- takes one of your two rim protectors/rebounders out of position to protect the rim or rebound

Essentially, on defense in Duke's system, 2 bigs become one big in a lot of cases. Why have 2 big guys in when one of them is always getting blown by or committing bad fouls?

Then, on offense, you clog the lane with two bigs (since none of the Duke bigs have shown any semblance of outside shooting) and that eliminates driving lanes. Then you resort to long twos and threes.

Since Bolden and Jefferson are more space-eaters right now than freak athletes, they're limited to what contributions they can provide. For example, neither is going to catch a lop pass and flush it down behind a defense. Neither is going to get a putback slam. Neither is going to sky over the defense to grab an opportunistic offensive board - Giles is.

So it's a given that Giles is going to play, just based on sheer athletic ability, raw talent and length. The main issue with Giles is "how long can he play in a game due to injury recovery, wind, foul trouble, effectiveness, etc."

The minutes discussion at the 4/5 to me, really comes down to Tatum/Jefferson/Bolden.

- Bolden will never see time at the 4. Jefferson will, because he's more mobile and better overall on defense because of his experience.
- Tatum sees most of the time at the 4 because, as you said, he's a matchup nightmare. Big enough (in college, at least) to bang inside, rebound, alter/block shots, but able to handle the ball, pass and shoot. His presence completely alters the effectiveness of Duke on both ends.
- Jefferson plays over Bolden because he's better overall right now. Bolden is stronger and bigger and feels more like a natural 5, but he's a project on offense. He's solid on rim protection and great on hedges, but commits dumb fouls and is susceptible to driving guards. That's not a great attribute in Duke's system.

Bolden is the odd man out, for now. Only way he plays is if Jefferson gets into foul trouble, is limited by injury or we see a team with a huge frontcourt.

Hopefully, Bolden sticks around for next season, because I'd love to see him develop, but he might still be projected as a first rounder when the workouts happen and would be dumb to stay.

[ikiru36]

I completely agree on Giles, but I don't know how much (if any) stock to put into the bolded part above for Bolden. I mean, we were told that Marshall Plumlee - who played just 50 minutes as a redshirt freshman a year later and with fewer bodies in front of him - was among the top 6 players prior to his injury as a true freshman. We were also told during Alex Murphy's true freshman year that he was possibly a 4-year starter. We were told by some that Seth Curry was the best player in practice on the 2010 team. Coach K seems to have a habit of talking up players who aren't available or who have been limited by injury. So I suspect this is true with the Bolden point bolded above. I think the main reason Bolden doesn't play is because he is the #3 center on the team, and Coach K doesn't like to play 3 deep at center unless absolutely forced to do so (by injury or foul trouble).

As for Giles, he is doing basically exactly what Tony Bradley is doing right now. Bradley averages 19.9 points and 14.4 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting 56.0% from the field. Giles averages 15.3 points and 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes while shootin 56.7% from the field. Considering differences in pace of play between UNC and Duke, that's basically a wash. And considering that Giles hadn't played basketball for much of the last two years due to the ACL tears and missed all of this past summer and fall with a minor procedure on his knee, that sounds about right that he's only on par with another highly-touted freshman big.

CDu, unfortunately no-one knows what would have happened had Marques stayed healthy. Back when Bolden was being discussed as a potential significant piece of the team, he actually started a game, played 25 minutes and had a double-double with 5 blocks. While it is a major caveat that this was the 1st exhibition game of the season, it tends to support that there was sincere belief that he might contribute and that he was demonstrating that possibility in practice...etc. I'm not sure how many had the opportunity to see the Duke/Virginia State game (available here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2D2-FwYXRk)) but, quality and size of opponent aside (they are currently 22-6, playing CIAA level competition), Bolden really did impress with his movement, decent skill, and energy. Sadly, it was during the week between that game and the 2nd Exhibition that he was injured (still never clear on what that injury was?) and he did not return to a game for over a month. Anyways, not a strong refutation, but I do think that starting Bolden as a true Freshman (and his playing well) prior to his injury may indicate a different trajectory was justifiably expected than has worked out thusfar.

Go Marques!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[WVDUKEFAN]

If we can get 15.3 points and 13.9 rb's out of Giles, we should put him in, because we certainly aren't getting it out of Amile, although there is little doubt that injury is contributing to his lower production. He started the season like a ball of fire. I also think his numbers are lower because our guards aren't looking for our bigs. The pass them up time and time again and force shots.

I agree w/ CDu's observation of Curry.

[Kedsy]

I completely agree on Giles, but I don't know how much (if any) stock to put into the bolded part above for Bolden. I mean, we were told that Marshall Plumlee - who played just 50 minutes as a redshirt freshman a year later and with fewer bodies in front of him - was among the top 6 players prior to his injury as a true freshman. We were also told during Alex Murphy's true freshman year that he was possibly a 4-year starter. We were told by some that Seth Curry was the best player in practice on the 2010 team. Coach K seems to have a habit of talking up players who aren't available or who have been limited by injury. So I suspect this is true with the Bolden point bolded above. I think the main reason Bolden doesn't play is because he is the #3 center on the team, and Coach K doesn't like to play 3 deep at center unless absolutely forced to do so (by injury or foul trouble).

As for Giles, he is doing basically exactly what Tony Bradley is doing right now. Bradley averages 19.9 points and 14.4 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting 56.0% from the field. Giles averages 15.3 points and 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes while shootin 56.7% from the field. Considering differences in pace of play between UNC and Duke, that's basically a wash.

Close, but not quite. Here are the comparative stats for Giles and Bradley per 100 possessions:

HG: 22.0 pts; 19.9 rebs; 1.6 assts; 2.1 blcks; 1.3 stls; 3.6 tos;
TB: 27.3 pts; 19.9 rebs; 2.5 assts; 2.7 blcks; 1.2 stls; 2.4 tos;

So Bradley is scoring better, assisting better, and blocking better (and turning it over less). Rebounds and steals are the same. But I agree with you that, considering Harry is coming back from a year-and-a-half off, the differences aren't that important.

[Kedsy]

Back when Bolden was being discussed as a potential significant piece of the team, he actually started a game, played 25 minutes and had a double-double with 5 blocks.

It's also worth noting that neither Jayson nor Harry were available in that game, and Matt Jones was hobbled and played just 3 minutes, and Grayson had a hip injury though he managed to play 22 minutes. So basically we were playing guys like Jack and Javin at SF for a good portion of the game, and there were pretty much 80 available minutes for Amile, Chase, and Marques. In that scenario, no wonder Marques played a lot of minutes. And since his only competition to starting was Chase, it's not a huge surprise Marques started. But I don't think that game would have meant much once we were fully healthy (assuming that ever happens this year).

[Indoor66]

Close, but not quite. Here are the comparative stats for Giles and Bradley per 100 possessions:

HG: 22.0 pts; 19.9 rebs; 1.6 assts; 2.1 blcks; 1.3 stls; 3.6 tos;
TB: 27.3 pts; 19.9 rebs; 2.5 assts; 2.7 blcks; 1.2 stls; 2.4 tos;

So Bradley is scoring better, assisting better, and blocking better (and turning it over less). Rebounds and steals are the same. But I agree with you that, considering Harry is coming back from a year-and-a-half off, the differences aren't that important.

How many minutes does Bradley play per game vs. Giles?

[Kedsy]

How many minutes does Bradley play per game vs. Giles?

Bradley has played 15.0 mpg in 28 games, while Giles has played 12.3 mpg in 18 games. In conference games, Bradley has played 13.4 mpg while Giles has played 13.3 mpg.

[Indoor66]

Bradley has played 15.0 mpg in 28 games, while Giles has played 12.3 mpg in 18 games. In conference games, Bradley has played 13.4 mpg while Giles has played 13.3 mpg.

Thanks. That puts the comparison in context.