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Olympic Fan
02-23-2017, 01:22 PM
I thought I'd break this out of the This Week in the ACC Thread, so we can track the last eight days of the ACC regular season and the impact that has on the brackets.

Here are the brackets after Wednesday night's games (going into Saturday's five-game slate):

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (4-11) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-11) -- Note Clemson wins head-to-head tiebreaker
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Georgia Tech (7-8) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-13)
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Wake Forest (7-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-12)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Virginia (8-7) vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech -- Note split head-to-head and 0-1 and No. 1 UNC and 0-1 vs. No. 2 FSU; Virginia wins with 1-0 record vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (10-5) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Syracuse (9-7) vs. Georgia Tech-BC
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Miami (9-6) vs. Wake-NC State winner

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (12-3) vs. Virginia-VPI winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville vs. Duke/Clemson/Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (10-5) vs. Syracuse/Georgia Tech/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Notre Dame (10-5) vs. Miami/Wake/NC State winner

Notes: Three tiebreakers to settle ... two don't matter since the 12-13 and 8-9 matchups are the same ... the tiebreaker merely determines top seed and home team

The tiebreaker to separate FSU. Notre Dame, Louisville and Duke is a mess and is VERY important. As it stands,. FSU is 3-1 in head-to-head matchups with the other three; Notre Dame is 2-2 and Duke and Louisville 1-2. Louisville gets No. 4 based on the next step -- after FSU and Notre Dame are separated out, Louisville has the head-to-head edge. Obviously, a lot can change since we have two more head-to-head matchups at this spot in the final eight games -- FSU at Duke and Notre Dame at Louisville.

The bigger issue is that Duke's loss at Syracuse has temporarily cost the Devils a double bye. It's in our interest to pull hard against Louisville, Notre Dame and FSU going forward -- and Miami is right on our heels (with a win Saturday they tie Duke in the standings)

PackMan97
02-23-2017, 01:28 PM
I thought I'd break this out of the This Week in the ACC Thread, so we can track the last eight days of the ACC regular season and the impact that has on the brackets.

Here are the brackets after Wednesday night's games (going into Saturday's five-game slate):

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (4-11) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-11) -- Note Clemson wins head-to-head tiebreaker
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Georgia Tech (7-8) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-13)
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Wake Forest (7-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-12)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Virginia (8-7) vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech -- Note split head-to-head and 0-1 and No. 1 UNC and 0-1 vs. No. 2 FSU; Virginia wins with 1-0 record vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (10-5) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Syracuse (9-7) vs. Georgia Tech-BC
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Miami (9-6) vs. Wake-NC State winner

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (12-3) vs. Virginia-VPI winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville vs. Duke/Clemson/Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (10-5) vs. Syracuse/Georgia Tech/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Notre Dame (10-5) vs. Miami/Wake/NC State winner

Notes: Three tiebreakers to settle ... two don't matter since the 12-13 and 8-9 matchups are the same ... the tiebreaker merely determines top seed and home team

The tiebreaker to separate FSU. Notre Dame, Louisville and Duke is a mess and is VERY important. As it stands,. FSU is 3-1 in head-to-head matchups with the other three; Notre Dame is 2-2 and Duke and Louisville 1-2. Louisville gets No. 4 based on the next step -- after FSU and Notre Dame are separated out, Louisville has the head-to-head edge. Obviously, a lot can change since we have two more head-to-head matchups at this spot in the final eight games -- FSU at Duke and Notre Dame at Louisville.

The bigger issue is that Duke's loss at Syracuse has temporarily cost the Devils a double bye. It's in our interest to pull hard against Louisville, Notre Dame and FSU going forward -- and Miami is right on our heels (with a win Saturday they tie Duke in the standings)

I sure hope State can stay in the 14th slot...I really like that side of the bracket better than UNC, Louisville, Duke, UVa side...I feel good about our changes at winning the ACCT on that side, or at least advancing to the championship game.

CDu
02-23-2017, 01:39 PM
Louisville still plays Notre Dame again, so one of them is guaranteed a loss. We play FSU, so that will guarantee one of us a loss.

Basically, if all we care about is the double bye, we want Louisville to beat Notre Dame. What we don't want is to get in a 4/5 tie situation with Louisville. Louisville beating Notre Dame essentially solves that problem.

But, as always, if we win games, everything will work out. Beat Miami. Beat FSU. The rest is cream cheese.

Tripping William
02-23-2017, 01:48 PM
Louisville still plays Notre Dame again, so one of them is guaranteed a loss. We play FSU, so that will guarantee one of us a loss.

Basically, if all we care about is the double bye, we want Louisville to beat Notre Dame. What we don't want is to get in a 4/5 tie situation with Louisville. Louisville beating Notre Dame essentially solves that problem.

But, as always, if we win games, everything will work out. Beat Miami. Beat FSU. The rest is wine and cheese.

FIFY. :o

Otherwise agree (although last night's outcomes were really tough to swallow from an ACC-race standpoint).

gofurman
02-23-2017, 05:25 PM
Louisville still plays Notre Dame again, so one of them is guaranteed a loss. We play FSU, so that will guarantee one of us a loss.

Basically, if all we care about is the double bye, we want Louisville to beat Notre Dame. What we don't want is to get in a 4/5 tie situation with Louisville. Louisville beating Notre Dame essentially solves that problem.

But, as always, if we win games, everything will work out. Beat Miami. Beat FSU. The rest is cream cheese.

If I have it right - to get a double bye we just need to go 2 and 1 (NOT easy as at Miami scares me!).. and if Notre Dame goes 2 and 1 we have the double-bye, right? Because we have the tiebreaker over ND having beaten them head-to-head. Is that right//?

Or we also could have FSU if we beat them because if we go 2-1 and FSU goes 2-1 (losing to us) then we have same record but we split w FSU... then it's who did better against top team in conference which would be us. We at least split w UNC. FSU lost in their one attempt.

Are those two assumptions correct?? As long as we beat Miami and FSU, we can lose to UNC and get a double-bye??? (and again, caveat - I think at Miami is a tough game.. I think they should be favored)

CDu
02-23-2017, 05:44 PM
If I have it right - to get a double bye we just need to go 2 and 1 (NOT easy as at Miami scares me!).. and if Notre Dame goes 2 and 1 we have the double-bye, right? Because we have the tiebreaker over ND having beaten them head-to-head. Is that right//?

Or we also could have FSU if we beat them because if we go 2-1 and FSU goes 2-1 (losing to us) then we have same record but we split w FSU... then it's who did better against top team in conference which would be us. We at least split w UNC. FSU lost in their one attempt.

Are those two assumptions correct?? As long as we beat Miami and FSU, we can lose to UNC and get a double-bye??? (and again, caveat - I think at Miami is a tough game.. I think they should be favored)

It isn't quite that simple. If there is a 4-way tie and Notre Dame beats Louisville, we could end up right back where we are now.

If we lose to FSU and Notre Dame beats Louisville but loses elsewhere, we would lose out on the same tiebreaker.

We would need to win 2 including FSU and have Notre Dame lose to Louisville to guarantee us a top 4 spot. Or we would need to win out. Anything else requires help from more than one team.

jv001
02-23-2017, 06:05 PM
It isn't quite that simple. If there is a 4-way tie and Notre Dame beats Louisville, we could end up right back where we are now.

If we lose to FSU and Notre Dame beats Louisville but loses elsewhere, we would lose out on the same tiebreaker.

We would need to win 2 including FSU and have Notre Dame lose to Louisville to guarantee us a top 4 spot. Or we would need to win out. Anything else requires help from more than one team.

The loss to a bad NC State team in Cameron looms large right now. GoDuke!

Olympic Fan
02-25-2017, 06:39 PM
Okay,

Brackets updated after the five games Saturday

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (4-12) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-12) -- Note Clemson wins head-to-head tiebreaker
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Georgia Tech (7-8) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-14)
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Wake Forest (7-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-13)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Syracuse (9-7) vs. No. 9 Virginia (9-7) -- Note: Syracuse won head-to-head
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Miami (10-6) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner -- Note Miami wins tiebreaker at the moment ... 1-1 head-to-head; both 1-0 vs. UNC, both 0-1 vs. FSU, but Miami 0-0 vs. Louisville to Duke's 0-1
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-7) vs. Georgia Tech-BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Duke (10-6) vs. Wake-NC State winner

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (13-3) vs. Virginia-Syracuse winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Notre Dame (10-5) vs. Miami/Clemson/Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (11-5) vs. Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Louisville (10-5) vs. Duke/Wake/NC State winner

UNC has clinched at least a share of the ACC regular season title. They get it outright (and the No. 1 seed) with a win this week at Virginia or home to Duke OT if FSU, Louisville and Notre Dame all lose one more game.

Olympic Fan
02-27-2017, 11:26 PM
Updated after Monday night's two games ... amazing logjam at the top of the league UNC now one game up on three teams tied at 11-5 ... three teams tied at 10-7 and Duke (10-6) all alone in fifth.

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (4-12) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-12) -- Note Clemson wins head-to-head tiebreaker
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Wake Forest (7-9) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-14) Note: Wake wins tiebreaker with Georgia Tech
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Georgia Tech (7-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-13)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Virginia (10-7) vs. No. 9 Syracuse (9-8) -- Note: Virginia third in tiebreaker with Miami and Virginia Tech (1-2 head-to-head)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (10-6) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-7) vs. Wake Forest-BC winner -- Note Virginia Tech second in tiebreaker with Virginia and Miami (2-2 head to head)
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Miami (10-7) vs. Ga Tech-NC State winner -- Note: Miami first in tiebreaker with Virginia and VPI (2-1 head to head)

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (13-4) vs. Virginia-Syracuse winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville (11-5) vs. Duke/Clemson/Pitt winner -- Note: Louisville 0-2 head-to0-head with FSU and Notre Dame
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (11-5) vs. Virginia Tech/Wake/BC winner -- Note FSU 2-1 vs. Notre Dame and Louisville; FSU beats Notre Dame with 1-0 record vs. Virginia
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Notre Dame (11-5) vs. Miami/Ga Tech/NC State winner -- Note: Notre Dame 2-1 vs. Louisville and FSU

Braking the three-way 11-5 tiebreaker is hard ... well, Louisville -- 0-2 head-to- head with FSU and NDame -- is easy. But FSU and Notre Dame are 2-1 against the other two an 1-1 against each other. Both are 0-1 against UNC, 1-0 vs. Louisville, 1-0 vs. Duke (that will change for FSU Tuesday night), 1-0 v. Miami and 1-0 v. Virginia Tech ... FSU is 1-0 vs. Virginia and NDame is 0-1 vs. the Cavs.

The only seed set in stone at this moment is UNC at No. 1 (even if Louisville, Notre Dame, FSU or some combination of the 3 ties them for the regular season title, UNC gets the top seed based on its 1-0 record against all three remaining contenders).

The bottom four teams --Pitt, Clemson, NC State and BC are all locked into Tuesday's first round, but their seeds aren't set.

gofurman
02-27-2017, 11:46 PM
Olympic Fan, Thanks for doing this. Appreciate it

I do find it interesting that there are basically four sets of achievement now.

Teams 10-15 play Tuesday.
Teams 8and 9 play Wednesday but both are fresh - they don't draw a tired opponent.
Teams 5-7 get a bye and get to play a 'tired opponent who played on Tuesday. (This is probably Duke)
Teams 1-4 get a double bye. Very nice.

Olympic Fan
02-28-2017, 12:20 AM
Olympic Fan, Thanks for doing this. Appreciate it

I do find it interesting that there are basically four sets of achievement now.

Teams 10-15 play Tuesday.
Teams 8and 9 play Wednesday but both are fresh - they don't draw a tired opponent.
Teams 5-7 get a bye and get to play a 'tired opponent who played on Tuesday. (This is probably Duke)
Teams 1-4 get a double bye. Very nice.

Actually, teams playing the second straight day often seem to have an advantage over the teams just starting out -- meaning teams that play Tuesday have an edge on Wednesday and teams that start on Wednesday often have an edge on those that start Thursday.

It's a small sample size -- and the better teams do start play later in the week -- but there does seem to be slight advantage to win one game and then face a team playing its first tournament game.

That advantage seems to disappear after one game. In most cases, two games in two days is nothing, but three games in three days (against fresher teams) is tough ... and four in four days is impossible (at least in ACC history ... it has happened in other leagues).

kAzE
02-28-2017, 01:11 AM
That advantage seems to disappear after one game. In most cases, two games in two days is nothing, but three games in three days (against fresher teams) is tough ... and four in four days is impossible (at least in ACC history ... it has happened in other leagues).

Especially with our ever-banged up team. If we have any intention of seriously contending for the ACC championship, that means finishing in the top 4. Period.

I'm not sure how all the tiebreakers work if we're in a pack of teams who go 11-7 . . . hopefully those will favor us?

It looks a little like we may need to win out at this point.

pfrduke
02-28-2017, 01:45 AM
Especially with our ever-banged up team. If we have any intention of seriously contending for the ACC championship, that means finishing in the top 4. Period.

I'm not sure how all the tiebreakers work if we're in a pack of teams who go 11-7 . . . hopefully those will favor us?

It looks a little like we may need to win out at this point.

After some further research, I don't think we win any tiebreakers at 11-7. Since that assumes we lose to UNC, Miami will have the best record against the Heels. And Miami or FSU will have at least as good as a, if not better, record than us in the head-to-head among any combination of Duke, FSU, UVA, and VT. So the Canes have the inside shot at the 4 seed if 7 losses is good enough for a tie for 4th.

CDu
02-28-2017, 07:46 AM
After some further research, I don't think we win any tiebreakers at 11-7. Since that assumes we lose to UNC, Miami will have the best record against the Heels. And Miami or FSU will have at least as good as a, if not better, record than us in the head-to-head among any combination of Duke, FSU, UVA, and VT. So the Canes have the inside shot at the 4 seed if 7 losses is good enough for a tie for 4th.

If we lose to FSU and beat UNC, we would have the tiebreaker over UVa and Notre Dame. We could have the tiebreaker over Miami depending upon where FSU and Notre Dame fall in the standings. But we would not have a tiebreaker over Va Tech or Louisville.

If we beat FSU and lose to UNC we would have tiebreakers over Notre Dame, UVa, and FSU. But we would lose tiebreakers to Va Tech, Miami, and Louisville.

pfrduke
02-28-2017, 09:16 AM
If we lose to FSU and beat UNC, we would have the tiebreaker over UVa and Notre Dame. We could have the tiebreaker over Miami depending upon where FSU and Notre Dame fall in the standings. But we would not have a tiebreaker over Va Tech or Louisville.

If we beat FSU and lose to UNC we would have tiebreakers over Notre Dame, UVa, and FSU. But we would lose tiebreakers to Va Tech, Miami, and Louisville.

Right, but the question is whether we can get the 4 seed at 11-7. And if we are there after beating FSU and losing to UNC then Miami will also be 11-7 and I don't think we win any tiebreaker with them involved. Maybe if either Louisville or Notre Dame manage to lose both games we can finish second in some multi team tiebreaker and get the 4 seed. But realistically we must win out to get the double bye.

Olympic Fan
02-28-2017, 01:22 PM
After some further research, I don't think we win any tiebreakers at 11-7. Since that assumes we lose to UNC, Miami will have the best record against the Heels. And Miami or FSU will have at least as good as a, if not better, record than us in the head-to-head among any combination of Duke, FSU, UVA, and VT. So the Canes have the inside shot at the 4 seed if 7 losses is good enough for a tie for 4th.

But Miami and FSU play Saturday ion Tallahassee ...

Here's the deal, if Duke splits this week (beating FSU at home, losing at UNC -- that's what the oddsmakers say), then Duke is 11-7.

Notre Dame and Louisville also play Saturday, but their record depends on what happens Wednesday night -- Louisville at Wake Forest and BC at Notre Dame.

NDame is going to beat BC at home to go to 12-5. That means they finish ahead of us, no matter what happens at Louisville. Louisville could lose at Wake ... if they did and then lost at home to Notre Dame, then they finish at 11-7. That's very unlikely, but possible.

If FSU beats Miami -- as they should at home -- FSU finished 12-6 and Miami finishes 10-8. If Miami wins, then FSU finishes 11-7 and Miami finishes11-7.

That sets up a three-way tie with Duke for fourth place. Duke gets the No. 5 seed in that scenario (all three teams are 2-2 against each other; Miami 1-0 vs. UNC, Duke 1-1 vs. UNC; FSU 0-1 vs. UNC)

Put Louisville in the mix (a long shot, assuming Louisville loses both at wake and home to Notre Dame) then Louisville gets No. 3 (2-1 against the other three; FSU gets No. 4 -- 3-2, Miami No. 5 and Duke drops to 6 ... both Duke). The one scenario that could give Duke the double bye involves the extremely unlikely scenario that Notre Dame loses to BC and Louisville this week. Then you could get to a four-way tie with Duke, Notre Dame, FSU and Miami all at 11-7. That actually gives Duke the No. 3 seed (3-2 against the other three teams in the mix).

But while that's fun to speculate about, it's not going to happen. Realistically, it's simple:

If Duke wins out, Duke almost certainly gets a double bye.

If Duke finishes 1-1, Duke almost certainly plays on Wednesday with just a single bye.

If Duke finishes 0-2, then Wednesday is a certainty.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-01-2017, 06:54 AM
Anyone crafty enough to update the brackets with just a handful of games left? I know we can still make UNC share the "championship" and I think we can still put ourselves in the double-bye, but all the permutations must be coming clearer.

OldPhiKap
03-01-2017, 06:57 AM
Anyone crafty enough to update the brackets with just a handful of games left? I know we can still make UNC share the "championship" and I think we can still put ourselves in the double-bye, but all the permutations must be coming clearer.

There are three games tonight, and then everyone off until a final Saturday game. Louisville And Notre Dame, both 11-5, included. Probably much clearer after tonight.

SCMatt33
03-01-2017, 08:21 AM
There are three games tonight, and then everyone off until a final Saturday game. Louisville And Notre Dame, both 11-5, included. Probably much clearer after tonight.

Tonight will help for sure. I'll leave all those 7-loss permutations to the discussions above, but for 6-losses, Duke will get a double bye UNLESS...

1) Notre Dame and Louisville both win tonight
AND
2) FSU beats Miami Saturday
AND
3) ND beats Lousiville Saturday

In that exact scenario, Duke, Lousiville and FSU end up in a 3-way tie for 3rd, FSU went 2-1 vs the group, Louisville went 1-1, and Duke went 1-2 leaving Duke in fifth. Any other 6-loss permutation will give Duke a double bye because either a) at least one out of FSU, ND and Louisville has 7 losses making tiebreakers moot for Duke's double bye or b) ND is involved in the tiebreaker which means that Duke will be at least .500 against the tied group and Duke would be ahead of at least one team in the tied group (a four way tie leaves out whichever team wins tonight but loses Saturday between ND and Lousiville and a three way tie with FSU and ND leaves out ND.)

UNCfan
03-01-2017, 08:42 AM
I sure hope State can stay in the 14th slot...I really like that side of the bracket better than UNC, Louisville, Duke, UVa side...I feel good about our changes at winning the ACCT on that side, or at least advancing to the championship game.

huh?

devildeac
03-01-2017, 09:23 AM
huh?

Lupine hallucinations. :rolleyes:;)

DavidBenAkiva
03-01-2017, 09:46 AM
Tonight will help for sure. I'll leave all those 7-loss permutations to the discussions above, but for 6-losses, Duke will get a double bye UNLESS...

1) Notre Dame and Louisville both win tonight
AND
2) FSU beats Miami Saturday
AND
3) ND beats Lousiville Saturday

In that exact scenario, Duke, Lousiville and FSU end up in a 3-way tie for 3rd, FSU went 2-1 vs the group, Louisville went 1-1, and Duke went 1-2 leaving Duke in fifth. Any other 6-loss permutation will give Duke a double bye because either a) at least one out of FSU, ND and Louisville has 7 losses making tiebreakers moot for Duke's double bye or b) ND is involved in the tiebreaker which means that Duke will be at least .500 against the tied group and Duke would be ahead of at least one team in the tied group (a four way tie leaves out whichever team wins tonight but loses Saturday between ND and Lousiville and a three way tie with FSU and ND leaves out ND.)

Thanks for this write-up. I was wondering what would happen in the two most likely scenarios for Duke. Let me list out what I think would happen. Please let me know if I have the seeding wrong.

Scenario 1

1) Louisville and Notre Dame both win on Wednesday, putting them at 12-5 each
AND
2) Louisville beats Notre Dame on Saturday, leaving ND at 12-6
AND
3) FSU beats Miami on Saturday, leaving FSU at 12-6
AND
4) Duke beats UNC on Saturday, leaving Duke at 12-6

This scenario creates a three-way tie for 3rd place between Duke, FSU, and Notre Dame. Duke is 2-1 vs. those three, FSU is 2-2, and Notre Dame is 1-2, putting Duke in position to earn the 3 seed.

ACC Tournament Seeding: 1) UNC, 2) Louisville, 3) Duke, 4) FSU, 5) Notre Dame

Scenario 2

1) Louisville and Notre Dame both win on Wednesday, putting them at 12-5 each
AND
2) Louisville beats Notre Dame on Saturday, leaving ND at 12-6
AND
3) FSU beats Miami on Saturday, leaving FSU at 12-6 and Miami at 11-7
AND
4) Duke loses to UNC on Saturday, leaving Duke at 11-7
AND
5) Virginia Tech beats Wake Forest on Saturday, leaving VA Tech at 11-7
AND
6) Virginia beats Pitt at home on Saturday, leaving Virginia at 11-7

This creates a four-way tie for 5th place between Duke, Miami, Virginia, and VA Tech. Miami is 3-2 vs. the field and 1-0 vs. UNC, VA Tech is 3-2 vs. the field and 0-1 vs. UNC, Duke is 2-2, and Virginia is 1-3 vs. the field. This puts Miami in the 5th seed while VA Tech is 6th, Duke 7th, and Virginia in 8th.

ACC Tournament Seeding: 1) UNC, 2) Louisville, 3) FSU, 4) Notre Dame, 5) Miami, 6) VA Tech, 7) Duke, and 8) Virginia

That's quite a swing for Duke, from 3rd and a double-bye to 7th. Did I get those two scenarios right?

DCDevil9194
03-01-2017, 09:53 AM
Impressive work - I am not even going to try to tackle all of the complexities, but in scenario 2, if Fla St. beats Miami, then Miami would be 10-8

Indoor66
03-01-2017, 10:44 AM
My eyeballs are swapping holes trying to follow the last couple posts! 😂😆😎

BD80
03-01-2017, 10:47 AM
Tonight will help for sure. I'll leave all those 7-loss permutations to the discussions above, but for 6-losses, Duke will get a double bye UNLESS...

1) Notre Dame and Louisville both win tonight
AND
2) FSU beats Miami Saturday
AND
3) ND beats Lousiville Saturday

...

Unfortunately, scenarios 1 and 2 are likely. Leaving the ND @ UL game the key. Could be a good game ...

DavidBenAkiva
03-01-2017, 11:02 AM
Impressive work - I am not even going to try to tackle all of the complexities, but in scenario 2, if Fla St. beats Miami, then Miami would be 10-8

Good catch! I had a hunch my math was off somewhere...

Scenario 2 in my post above should result in a 3-way tie for 5th place between VA Tech, Duke, and Virginia, resulting in the following seeding:

ACC Tournament Seeding: 1) UNC, 2) Louisville, 3) FSU, 4) Notre Dame, 5) VA Tech, 6) Duke, and 7) Virginia

OldPhiKap
03-01-2017, 11:06 AM
Sounds to me like we need to beat the cheats, and then trust that a unique string of events does not happen to nonetheless displace us.

I'm a simple guy. That works for me.

SCMatt33
03-01-2017, 11:09 AM
Unfortunately, scenarios 1 and 2 are likely. Leaving the ND @ UL game the key. Could be a good game ...

If you go by KenPom, that scenario (before considering whether Duke Beats UNC since that would be moot) has about a 9-10% chance of happening. KenPom odds as of now are:

ND over BC: 95%
Louisville over Wake: 64%
FSU over Miami: 74%
ND over Louisville: 21%

If they were all independent events it would have a 9.4% chance of coming to fruition, but they aren't, so high single digits to low double digit chance seems about right given that there's one upset needed and a couple are solid but not overwhelming favorites.

Doria
03-01-2017, 11:20 AM
My eyeballs are swapping holes trying to follow the last couple posts! 😂😆😎

Hahaha! I'm in the exact same boat. I followed a couple of the earlier ones, and I hoped they'd become more simple. But it seems they've become staggeringly more confusing!

Also, gotta love Pacman's optimism and enthusiasm (well, maybe sarcasm?).

CDu
03-01-2017, 11:30 AM
Good catch! I had a hunch my math was off somewhere...

Scenario 2 in my post above should result in a 3-way tie for 5th place between VA Tech, Duke, and Virginia, resulting in the following seeding:

ACC Tournament Seeding: 1) UNC, 2) Louisville, 3) FSU, 4) Notre Dame, 5) VA Tech, 6) Duke, and 7) Virginia

But there is an alternative scenario as well. If Miami beats FSU, then we have a 5-way tie for fourth at 11-7 with FSU, Duke, Miami, Va Tech, and UVa.

In that scenario, records would be:
Duke: 3-3
FSU: 4-2
Va Tech: 3-3
Miami: 4-3
UVa: 1-4

So in that scenario, we would indeed be 7th: FSU, Miami, Va Tech, Duke, UVa.

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 11:39 AM
Sounds to me like we need to beat the cheats, and then trust that a unique string of events does not happen to nonetheless displace us.

I'm a simple guy. That works for me.

If we beat Carolina, we have a 26% chance of a 3 seed and a 12% chance of a 4 seed. So, a 38% chance of the double bye.

According to this link (http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accstandings.html)

SCMatt33
03-01-2017, 11:51 AM
If we beat Carolina, we have a 26% chance of a 3 seed and a 12% chance of a 4 seed. So, a 38% chance of the double bye.

According to this link (http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accstandings.html)

That appears to be the overall odds of Duke getting those spots, so it doesn't assume a win yet. That number is giving us a 38% chance at a double bye as of this morning (combining the odds of us winning Saturday with other scenarios playing out around us). If we win, that 38% goes way up

El_Diablo
03-01-2017, 11:53 AM
If we beat Carolina, we have a 26% chance of a 3 seed and a 12% chance of a 4 seed. So, a 38% chance of the double bye.

According to this link (http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accstandings.html)

If we beat UNC, we have a 60% chance of a 3-seed and 23% chance of a 4-seed.

This page is more useful: http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/dukewhatif.html

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 11:54 AM
That appears to be the overall odds of Duke getting those spots, so it doesn't assume a win yet. That number is giving us a 38% chance at a double bye as of this morning (combining the odds of us winning Saturday with other scenarios playing out around us). If we win, that 38% goes way up

Yup...good catch.

Here are the odds if we win or lose at UNC:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/dukewhatif.html

If we win, the odds are 84% to get a double bye.

Doria
03-01-2017, 11:59 AM
Yup...good catch.

Here are the odds if we win or lose at UNC:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/dukewhatif.html

If we win, the odds are 84% to get a double bye.

I guess that settles it... we must make the sacrifice and beat UNC.

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 12:06 PM
If we beat UNC, we have a 60% chance of a 3-seed and 23% chance of a 4-seed.

And a 1% chance of a 2 seed

mgtr
03-01-2017, 12:15 PM
I say we beat the cheats, and then let the chips fall where they may!

Olympic Fan
03-01-2017, 12:37 PM
BTW: As of today, Duke has the No. 4 seed over FSU.

If course, that's meaningless, depending on Saturday's results.

(I'll do the fill bracket again after tonight's games)

DukeTrinity11
03-01-2017, 12:51 PM
Hey Guys, I present to you the 2017 Conference Tournament Generator.

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Just fill in whatever results you want in the remaining ACC games and the program will spit out what the ACC Tournament bracket will look like in Brooklyn based on the final regular season results.

If chalk holds and Duke beats UNC:

http://bball.notnothing.net/accbracket.php

We'd get the 9 PM EST slot on Thursday playing the winner of UVA and Pitt/Wake.

If chalk holds and Duke loses to UNC:

http://bball.notnothing.net/accbracket.php

We'd get the 9 PM EST slot on Wednesday playing the winner of Pitt and Wake.

Who's ready for Duke vs. Wake Round 3? :cool:

bluedev_92
03-01-2017, 01:44 PM
Sweet - thanks for posting!

Neals384
03-01-2017, 02:22 PM
Since UNC has wrapped up the #1 seed, there is no reason for them to try on Saturday;) It's their senior night, so I expect Coker and White to start and play big minutes, along with the other 3 seniors.

One can dream.

devildeac
03-01-2017, 02:48 PM
Since UNC has wrapped up the #1 seed, there is no reason for them to try on Saturday;) It's their senior night, so I expect Coker and White to start and play big minutes, along with the other 3 seniors.

One can dream.

From your keyboard to ol roy's ears...

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 11:26 PM
So using the calculator provided, it seems we now hold our fate in our own hands for the double bye.

Win, and we will be either a 3 or 4 seed regardless of the outcomes of FSU or ND/UL.

With the strength at the top of the ACC, it probably doesn't matter if we would have to play #2 or #1 in the semis or finals if chalk were to hold (which it probably won't)

Olympic Fan
03-01-2017, 11:36 PM
Okay, Wake's victory over Louisville actually drops Duke out of the double bye -- temporarily.

Going into Saturday's games:

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (5-12) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-13)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Wake Forest (8-9) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-15) -- Note: Wake wins tiebreaker with GTECH due to 1-0 head-to-head record
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-14)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Virginia (10-7) vs. No. 9 Syracuse (9-8) -- Note: Virginia third in tiebreaker with Miami and Virginia Tech (1-2 head-to-head)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (11-6) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner -- Note: Duke (1-2) third in 11-6 tiebreaker with Louisville (1-1) and FSU (2-1)
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-7) vs. Wake Forest-BC winner -- Note Virginia Tech second in tiebreaker with Virginia and Miami (2-2 head to head)
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Miami (10-7) vs. Ga Tech-NC State winner -- Note: Miami first in tiebreaker with Virginia and VPI (2-1 head to head)

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (13-4) vs. Virginia-Syracuse winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville (11-6) vs. Duke/Clemson/Pitt winner -- Note: Louisville 1-1 in tiebreaker with Duke and FSU
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Notre Dame (12-5) vs. Virginia Tech/Wake/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed FSU (11-6) vs. Miami/Ga Tech/NC State winner -- Note FSU 2-1 vs. Duke and Louisville

Think I'm right on this -- only two seeds set in stone at this moment -- UNC is No. 1 seed and BC is No. 15 seed.

Everything else could change -- for instance, Pitt loses at Virginia Saturday and they end up tied with NC State at 4-14 ... and lose the tiebreaker, so they get 14th place

Duke is certain to get a double bye with a win Saturday ... we could have a four-way tie for second through fifth place at 12-6 (Duke wins, Louisville beats Notre Dame, FSU beats Miami). If that happens, Notre Dame gets the 5th seed (2-3 head to head with the other three). FSU (3-2 in head-to-head) gets the No. 2 seed. Duke and Louisville and FSU would be 2-2 ... I THINK the tiebreaker is to look at the two of them head-to-head ... that gives Louisville the No. 3 seed and makes Duke No. 4.

If Notre Dame upsets Louisville and Duke and FSU win, Duke would end up with a two-way tie with FSU and win the tiebreaker due to its win over UNC and get the No. 3 seed.

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 11:42 PM
Okay, Wake's victory over Louisville actually drops Duke out of the double bye -- temporarily.

Going into Saturday's games:

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (5-12) vs. No. 13 Pitt (4-13)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Wake Forest (8-9) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-15) -- Note: Wake wins tiebreaker with GTECH due to 1-0 head-to-head record
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-9) vs. No. 14 N.C. State (4-14)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Virginia (10-7) vs. No. 9 Syracuse (9-8) -- Note: Virginia third in tiebreaker with Miami and Virginia Tech (1-2 head-to-head)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (11-6) vs. Clemson-Pitt winner -- Note: Duke (1-2) third in 11-6 tiebreaker with Louisville (1-1) and FSU (2-1)
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-7) vs. Wake Forest-BC winner -- Note Virginia Tech second in tiebreaker with Virginia and Miami (2-2 head to head)
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Miami (10-7) vs. Ga Tech-NC State winner -- Note: Miami first in tiebreaker with Virginia and VPI (2-1 head to head)

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (13-4) vs. Virginia-Syracuse winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville (11-6) vs. Duke/Clemson/Pitt winner -- Note: Louisville 1-1 in tiebreaker with Duke and FSU
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Notre Dame (12-5) vs. Virginia Tech/Wake/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed FSU (11-6) vs. Miami/Ga Tech/NC State winner -- Note FSU 2-1 vs. Duke and Louisville

Think I'm right on this -- only two seeds set in stone at this moment -- UNC is No. 1 seed and BC is No. 15 seed.

Everything else could change -- for instance, Pitt loses at Virginia Saturday and they end up tied with NC State at 4-14 ... and lose the tiebreaker, so they get 14th place

Duke is certain to get a double bye with a win Saturday ... we could have a four-way tie for second through fifth place at 12-6 (Duke wins, Louisville beats Notre Dame, FSU beats Miami). If that happens, Notre Dame gets the 5th seed (2-3 head to head with the other three). FSU (3-2 in head-to-head) gets the No. 2 seed. Duke and Louisville and FSU would be 2-2 ... I THINK the tiebreaker is to look at the two of them head-to-head ... that gives Louisville the No. 3 seed and makes Duke No. 4.

If Notre Dame upsets Louisville and Duke and FSU win, Duke would end up with a two-way tie with FSU and win the tiebreaker due to its win over UNC and get the No. 3 seed.

All that really matters..9F!

SCMatt33
03-01-2017, 11:50 PM
The other thing that I believe happened tonight is Duke can no longer have any chance at a double bye with a loss. Someone can correct me if they come up with a permutation that counters this, but I think we needed ND to have 7 losses to make it work. As it stands, for there to be a 7-loss tie for fourth or better with Duke involved, you must have either Lousiville in it and/or both FSU and Miami. Any combination of those doesn't really help Duke and adding UVA to the mix isn't enough since both FSU and Miami beat them as well and if it's Lousiville and Virginia, UVA has a 2 game sweep over Lousiville that would let them leap over us.

All that means is. Win Saturday, rest til Thursday. Lose Saturday, play Wednesday. Simple as that.

BandAlum83
03-01-2017, 11:56 PM
The other thing that I believe happened tonight is Duke can no longer have any chance at a double bye with a loss. Someone can correct me if they come up with a permutation that counters this, but I think we needed ND to have 7 losses to make it work. As it stands, for there to be a 7-loss tie for fourth or better with Duke involved, you must have either Lousiville in it and/or both FSU and Miami. Any combination of those doesn't really help Duke and adding UVA to the mix isn't enough since both FSU and Miami beat them as well and if it's Lousiville and Virginia, UVA has a 2 game sweep over Lousiville that would let them leap over us.

All that means is. Win Saturday, rest til Thursday. Lose Saturday, play Wednesday. Simple as that.

Best scenario I come up with if we lose is a #5 seed

-bdbd
03-02-2017, 12:27 AM
Best scenario I come up with if we lose is a #5 seed

So, easy answer -- all we gotta do is win Saturday. Easy.

;)

BandAlum83
03-02-2017, 12:36 AM
So, easy answer -- all we gotta do is win Saturday. Easy.

;)


We Got This!

hallcity
03-02-2017, 09:58 AM
I'm getting these possibilities:

If Duke wins, Duke gets the #3 seed if Notre Dame beats Louisville either because Duke would be the only team with a 12-6 record or because Duke would be tied with FSU and Duke would get the higher seed by reason of having beaten the #1 seed, UNC.

If Duke wins but Louisville beats Notre Dame and FSU beats Miami, Duke gets the #5 seed because Notre Dame would have the best record among the four teams tied at 12-6, then FSU would get the #3 seed because they would have a 2-1 record against Duke and Louisville and then Louisville would get the #4 seed since they had beaten Duke.

If Duke loses, they get the #5 seed. If Duke loses and FSU wins, Duke gets the #5 seed because it would be the only team with a 11-7 record. If Miami wins then there's a three way tie between Duke, FSU and Miami. Miami would get the #4 seed because it would have the best record, 2-1, among the three teams, then Duke would get the #5 seed by reason of having beaten UNC.

This is giving me a headache. Have I got it right?

Troublemaker
03-02-2017, 10:05 AM
So, easy answer -- all we gotta do is win Saturday. Easy.

Yeah, keep it simple.

If Duke sweeps UNC, I wouldn't care if Duke became the 15 seed!

And if Duke loses to UNC, I wouldn't care if Duke became the 15 seed! :mad:

Truth&Justise
03-02-2017, 10:18 AM
If Duke wins but Louisville beats Notre Dame and FSU beats Miami, Duke gets the #5 seed because Notre Dame would have the best record among the four teams tied at 12-6, then FSU would get the #3 seed because they would have a 2-1 record against Duke and Louisville and then Louisville would get the #4 seed since they had beaten Duke.


In that scenario Duke would get the four seed.

Of the four 12-6 teams, their records against each other would be:

Florida St. (3-2)
Louisville (2-2)
Duke (2-2)
Notre Dame (2-3)

So FSU gets the #2 seed, Notre Dame gets the #5, and Louisville and Duke go to an additional tie-breaker (head-to-head), which Louisville wins.

Anywho, it all checks out here: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

So the posters above are correct: win and we get a top four seed, lose and we don't Let's win!

jhmoss1812
03-02-2017, 11:19 AM
Shockingly, UVA is still in contention for the 4-seed and the double bye.

UVA beats Pitt
UNC beats Duke
FSU beats Miami
ND beats Louisville

Sorry guys but I have to root for UNC in the game Saturday at least until one of those other pieces falls through.

OldPhiKap
03-02-2017, 11:21 AM
Shockingly, UVA is still in contention for the 4-seed and the double bye.

UVA beats Pitt
UNC beats Duke
FSU beats Miami
ND beats Louisville

Sorry guys but I have to root for UNC in the game Saturday at least until one of those other pieces falls through.

It's okay, we don't play until 8:00 Saturday night. You'll either still be in the running or not by then.

That's not really an unrealistic set of results frankly, although the difficulty of getting all four to fall in place is what keeps Vegas in the black.

devildeac
03-02-2017, 11:22 AM
Shockingly, UVA is still in contention for the 4-seed and the double bye.

UVA beats Pitt
UNC beats Duke
FSU beats Miami
ND beats Louisville

Sorry guys but I have to root for UNC in the game Saturday at least until one of those other pieces falls through.

Demerit points being contemplated. (But not seriously :p .)

jv001
03-02-2017, 11:27 AM
Shockingly, UVA is still in contention for the 4-seed and the double bye.

UVA beats Pitt
UNC beats Duke
FSU beats Miami
ND beats Louisville

Sorry guys but I have to root for UNC in the game Saturday at least until one of those other pieces falls through.

Never, ever root for uncheat. Never, ever! 9F GoDuke!

OldPhiKap
03-02-2017, 11:29 AM
Never, ever root for uncheat. Never, ever! 9F GoDuke!

My guess is that jmoss would say the same for VTech.

Dukelogger
03-02-2017, 11:35 AM
In that scenario Duke would get the four seed.

Of the four 12-6 teams, their records against each other would be:

Florida St. (3-2)
Louisville (2-2)
Duke (2-2)
Notre Dame (2-3)

So FSU gets the #2 seed, Notre Dame gets the #5, and Louisville and Duke go to an additional tie-breaker (head-to-head), which Louisville wins.

Anywho, it all checks out here: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

So the posters above are correct: win and we get a top four seed, lose and we don't Let's win!

If Cuse lands at either 8/9 and advances, they might actually be a tough out up there. They'll be playing to secure an NCAA bid and would assume they'd have a few thousand more fans at noon on a Thursday, especially considering the nonpartisan spectators are mostly local and would pull for the underdog and admitted/punished cheater, verses the cheater in denial.

jhmoss1812
03-02-2017, 11:38 AM
My guess is that jmoss would say the same for VTech.


https://media.tenor.co/images/f7a0ca3d57058b93e1abb597b9bcc30d/raw

BandAlum83
03-02-2017, 11:47 AM
If Cuse lands at either 8/9 and advances, they might actually be a tough out up there. They'll be playing to secure an NCAA bid and would assume they'd have a few thousand more fans at noon on a Thursday, especially considering the nonpartisan spectators are mostly local and would pull for the underdog and admitted/punished cheater, verses the cheater in denial.

I wouldn't mind seeing UNC go down in a Thursday game. Fun!

Dukelogger
03-02-2017, 11:54 AM
I wouldn't mind seeing UNC go down in a Thursday game. Fun!

With us playing right after as the 4 seed. We are part of a rowdy crowd pulling against them as they let a lead slip away, failing to call a timeout and ultimately snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Then we win and have a nice little Thursday afternoon to look forward to.

BandAlum83
03-02-2017, 12:03 PM
With us playing right after as the 4 seed. We are part of a rowdy crowd pulling against them as they let a lead slip away, failing to call a timeout and ultimately snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with a double-digit loss. Then we win and have a nice little Thursday afternoon to look forward to.

FIFY

pfrduke
03-02-2017, 04:52 PM
Ok, seeding breakdown. There are 7 games Saturday, which means there are 128 possible combined outcomes*. Here are the number of seeding outcomes at each seed level (this is not the same as saying who has the best odds at being which seed, because not all outcomes are equally likely):

1 - UNC (128)
2 - Notre Dame (68), FSU (32), Louisville (28)
3 - Duke (48), Louisville (28), Notre Dame (28), FSU (24)
4 - FSU (48), Louisville (28), Duke (16), Notre Dame (16), Miami (12), Virginia (8)
5 - Miami (36), Duke (28), Louisville (20), Notre Dame (16), Virginia Tech (12), FSU (8), Virginia (8)
6 - Virginia Tech (28), Miami (24), Virginia (24), Duke (16), FSU (16), Louisville (12), Syracuse (8)
7 - Virginia Tech (52), Duke (20), Virginia (20), Miami (16), Louisville (12), Syracuse (8)
8 - Virginia (36), Virginia Tech (36), Syracuse (32), Miami (24)
9 - Georgia Tech (64), Virginia (32), Miami (16), Syracuse (16)
10 - Wake Forest (96), Syracuse (32)
11 - Georgia Tech (64), Syracuse (32), Wake Forest (32)
12 - Clemson (128)
13 - NC State (64), Pittsburgh (64)
14 - NC State (64), Pittsburgh (64)
15 - Boston College (128)

Outcomes by team:

BC - 15
Clemson - 12
Duke - 3 (48), 5 (28), 7 (20), 4 (16), 6 (16)
FSU - 4 (48), 2 (32), 3 (28), 6 (16), 5 (8)
GT - 9 (64), 11 (64)
Louisville - 2 (28), 3 (28), 4 (28), 5 (20), 6 (12), 7 (12)
Miami - 5 (36), 6 (24), 8 (24), 7 (16), 9 (16), 4 (12)
North Carolina - 1
NC State - 13 (64), 14 (64)
Notre Dame - 2 (68), 3 (28), 4 (16), 5 (16)
Pittsburgh - 13 (64), 14 (64)
Syracuse - 8 (32), 10 (32), 11 (32), 9 (16), 6 (8), 7 (8)
Virginia - 8 (36), 9 (32), 6 (24), 7 (20), 4 (8), 5 (8)
Virginia Tech - 7 (52), 8 (36), 6 (28), 5 (12)
Wake Forest - 10 (96), 11 (32)


*There are really only 64 outcomes that matter because the Clemson-BC game is meaningless for seeding purposes. Both teams are locked into their seeds and neither team's result impacts anyone else's seed.

pfrduke
03-02-2017, 05:07 PM
To add - the most likely seeding scenario (per Pomeroy; i.e., all favorites win):

1 - UNC
2 - FSU
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Louisville
5 - Virginia Tech
6 - Duke
7 - Virginia
8 - Syracuse
9 - Miami
10 - Wake Forest
11 - Georgia Tech
12 - Clemson
13 - NC State
14 - Pittsburgh
15 - Boston College

BandAlum83
03-02-2017, 05:16 PM
To add - the most likely seeding scenario (per Pomeroy; i.e., all favorites win)*:

1 - UNC
2 - FSU
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Louisville
5 - Virginia Tech
6 - Duke
7 - Virginia
8 - Syracuse
9 - Miami
10 - Wake Forest
11 - Georgia Tech
12 - Clemson
13 - NC State
14 - Pittsburgh
15 - Boston College

Hmmm...



*But when Duke and Carolina play, you can throw out the rankings and the records!

hallcity
03-02-2017, 05:59 PM
Here's the N&O rundown of possibilities for Duke:

The Blue Devils will be the No. 3 seed with a win AND a Louisville loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 3 seed with a win AND a Louisville win AND a Florida State loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 4 seed with a win AND a Louisville win AND a Florida State win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 5 seed with a loss AND a Louisville win AND a Virginia Tech loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 5 seed with a loss AND a Florida State win AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia Tech loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 5 seed with a loss AND a Florida State loss AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia win AND a Virginia Tech loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 6 seed with a loss AND a Florida State win AND a Louisville win AND a

Virginia Tech win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 6 seed with a loss AND a Florida State win AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia loss AND a Virginia Tech win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 6 seed with a loss AND a Florida State loss AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia loss AND a Virginia Tech loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 7 seed with a loss AND a Florida State loss AND a Louisville win AND a Virginia Tech win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 7 seed with a loss AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia win AND a Virginia Tech win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 7 seed with a loss AND a Florida State loss AND a Louisville loss AND a Virginia loss AND a Virginia Tech win

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article136067333.html#storylink=cpy

kAzE
03-02-2017, 06:02 PM
Here's the N&O rundown of possibilities for Duke

So, am I reading this correctly, in that there's no scenario in which we lose to UNC and still get the #4 seed? This UNC game didn't need to be any bigger than it already was . . .

gam7
03-02-2017, 06:17 PM
So, am I reading this correctly, in that there's no scenario in which we lose to UNC and still get the #4 seed? This UNC game didn't need to be any bigger than it already was . . .

And, there is no scenario in which we win and get a seed of 5 or lower. In other words, as far as the double-bye is concerned, it's as simple as:

Win = play next Thurs.
Lose = play next Wed.

(I think BandAlum83 mentioned this up-thread a bit earlier. Don't intend to steal his/her thunder.)

Neals384
03-03-2017, 01:19 AM
Here's a bit more detail on the outlook for each team. It's shaping up as a fantastic finish in the ACC. No fewer than 8 teams are playing to earn a bye, a double-bye, or a chance at a double-bye.
*Fla State, Louisville, Notre Dame and of course Duke can each clinch a double-bye with a win.
*Miami and UVA have a chance for a double-bye with a win, but they'll need a lot of help.
*The winner of Syracuse - GaTech gets a bye, the loser plays in the first round.

Florida State clinches a double bye (2,3 or 4 seed) with a win over Miami. A loss still gives them a shot at a double bye (3 or 4), but they may fall as far as 6.

With a win over Fla St, Miami has a slim shot at a 4 seed, although a 5 or 6 is more likely. Lose, and they will be somewhere between 6 and 9.

N Dame clinches the 2 seed with a win over Louisville. Lose and they will be seeded between 2 and 5.

Lousisville clinches a double-bye with a win. Lose, and they still have a shot at a double-bye, but may fall as far as #7.

Duke clinches a double-bye (3 or 4) with a win. An unthinkable loss will place them 5, 6 or 7.

Syracuse clinches a first round bye with a win, and can finish as high as #6. With a loss, no bye and a 10 or 11 seed is their fate.

With a win, UVA has a slim shot at a 4 seed, but could fall as far as #8. Lose, and they will be #7, 8 or 9.

VTech has somewhat less to play for. Win, they get a #5, 6 or 7. Lose, they get a 6, 7, or 8.

Wake gets the 10 seed (and opening round game vs. BC) with a win over VTech or a Ga Tech loss; otherwise the 11 seed and NC State or Pitt.

GA Tech gets the 9 seed - and a bye - with a win; otherwise the 11 seed.

jhmoss1812
03-03-2017, 02:40 PM
Here's a bit more detail on the outlook for each team. It's shaping up as a fantastic finish in the ACC. No fewer than 8 teams are playing to earn a bye, a double-bye, or a chance at a double-bye.
*Fla State, Louisville, Notre Dame and of course Duke can each clinch a double-bye with a win.
*Miami and UVA have a chance for a double-bye with a win, but they'll need a lot of help.
*The winner of Syracuse - GaTech gets a bye, the loser plays in the first round.

Florida State clinches a double bye (2,3 or 4 seed) with a win over Miami. A loss still gives them a shot at a double bye (3 or 4), but they may fall as far as 6.

With a win over Fla St, Miami has a slim shot at a 4 seed, although a 5 or 6 is more likely. Lose, and they will be somewhere between 6 and 9.

N Dame clinches the 2 seed with a win over Louisville. Lose and they will be seeded between 2 and 5.

Lousisville clinches a double-bye with a win. Lose, and they still have a shot at a double-bye, but may fall as far as #7.

Duke clinches a double-bye (3 or 4) with a win. An unthinkable loss will place them 5, 6 or 7.

Syracuse clinches a first round bye with a win, and can finish as high as #6. With a loss, no bye and a 10 or 11 seed is their fate.

With a win, UVA has a slim shot at a 4 seed, but could fall as far as #8. Lose, and they will be #7, 8 or 9.

VTech has somewhat less to play for. Win, they get a #5, 6 or 7. Lose, they get a 6, 7, or 8.

Wake gets the 10 seed (and opening round game vs. BC) with a win over VTech or a Ga Tech loss; otherwise the 11 seed and NC State or Pitt.

GA Tech gets the 9 seed - and a bye - with a win; otherwise the 11 seed.

To get the 4-seed and the double bye, UVA needs to beat Pitt (89%) and have FSU beat Miami (74%), UNC beat Duke (72%) and ND beat Louisville (22%). So UVA has around a 10% chance of getting the double bye (.89*.74*.72*.22 X 100). All percentages are based on Kenpom's model. Unlikely to happen but at least there's a chance. Amazing how different our projection is if we won one of those OT games against either Miami or VT. Oh well.

CDu
03-03-2017, 05:27 PM
To get the 4-seed and the double bye, UVA needs to beat Pitt (89%) and have FSU beat Miami (74%), UNC beat Duke (72%) and ND beat Louisville (22%). So UVA has around a 10% chance of getting the double bye (.89*.74*.72*.22 X 100). All percentages are based on Kenpom's model. Unlikely to happen but at least there's a chance. Amazing how different our projection is if we won one of those OT games against either Miami or VT. Oh well.

Preach. If we just beat State we would be playing for a share of the regular season title and the ACC's top seed.

Olympic Fan
03-04-2017, 01:59 PM
Okay, Virginia crushes Pitt -- no surprise.

Still too early to tell where Virginia -- at 11-7 in the ACC -- ends up in the bracket.

but it does solidify the bottom of the standings ... we now KNOW:

12. Clemson (6-12 or 5-13 -- it doesn't matter)
13. N.C. State (4-14) -- they win head to heat tiebreaker with Pitt)
14. Pitt (4-14 -- they lose head to head tiebreaker with NC State)
15. Boston College (2-15 of 3-14 -- it doesn't matter)

We now know the opening matchup of the ACC Tournament at noon Tuesday -- No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 13 NC State.

we know that BC plays at 2:30 p.m. and that Pitt plays at 7 p.m. but we don't know their opponents yet.

The Notre Dame at Louisville game that's starting in a minute or two will help sort out the top of the bracket.

Note: Michael Young scored just 14 point for Pitt ... if Luke scores 22 or more tonight, he takes over the ACC scoring lead

Wahoo2000
03-04-2017, 02:14 PM
Okay, Virginia crushes Pitt -- no surprise.

Still too early to tell where Virginia -- at 11-7 in the ACC -- ends up in the bracket.

but it does solidify the bottom of the standings ... we now KNOW:

12. Clemson (6-12 or 5-13 -- it doesn't matter)
13. N.C. State (4-14) -- they win head to heat tiebreaker with Pitt)
14. Pitt (4-14 -- they lose head to head tiebreaker with NC State)
15. Boston College (2-15 of 3-14 -- it doesn't matter)

We now know the opening matchup of the ACC Tournament at noon Tuesday -- No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 13 NC State.

we know that BC plays at 2:30 p.m. and that Pitt plays at 7 p.m. but we don't know their opponents yet.

The Notre Dame at Louisville game that's starting in a minute or two will help sort out the top of the bracket.

Note: Michael Young scored just 14 point for Pitt ... if Luke scores 22 or more tonight, he takes over the ACC scoring lead

I can already feel this scenario happening: UVa and Duke get the 7 and 6 seeds, respectively, and both "upset" ND and FSU in the quarters.

Olympic Fan
03-04-2017, 04:13 PM
Louisville beating Notre Dame doesn’t settle anything (except that UNC is the regular season champ)

I’ve got Louisville and Notre Dame tied for second at 12-6 in the ACC. Miami and Duke can join them in a four-way tie.

As I see it a two-way Louisville-Notre Dame tie can’t be broken yet, because it depends on who finishes 4-5-6

A three-way Louisville-Notre Dame-Duke tie ends up No. 2 Louisville (2-1 head to head), No. 3 Duke (1-1 head-to-head) and No. 4 Notre Dame (1-2 head-to head)

A three-way Louisville-Notre Dame-FSU tie ends up No. 2 FSU (2-1 head-to-head), No. 3 Notre Dame (2-2 head-to-head) and No. 4 Louisville (1-2 head-to-head)

A four-way Louisville-Notre Dame-Duke-FSU tie ends up at No. 2 FSU (3-2 head-to-head), No. 3 Louisville (2-2 head to head; 1-0 vs. Duke); No. 4 Duke (2-2 head-to-head; 0-1 vs. Louisville); No. 5 Notre Dame (2-3 head-to-head)

Interesting – if FSU beats Miami, they clinch the No. 2 seed.

Feather

duke2x
03-04-2017, 04:34 PM
Here's the N&O rundown of possibilities for Duke:

The Blue Devils will be the No. 3 seed with a win AND a Louisville win AND a Florida State loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 4 seed with a win AND a Louisville win AND a Florida State win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 5 seed with a loss AND a Louisville win AND a Virginia Tech loss

The Blue Devils will be the No. 6 seed with a loss AND a FSU win AND a Louisville win AND a VT win

The Blue Devils will be the No. 7 seed with a loss AND a Florida State loss AND a Louisville win AND a Virginia Tech win

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article136067333.html#storylink=cpy

I've updated the scenarios for the 1st 2 games. We should have it down to 2 scenarios by 6:30.

Hauerwas
03-04-2017, 04:42 PM
Use this site to calculate our seeding based on predictions for Sat. A loss means more than likely we are 6 seed, Win and we are 3-4.

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Indoor66
03-04-2017, 04:46 PM
Use this site to calculate our seeding based on predictions for Sat. A loss means more than likely we are 6 seed, Win and we are 3-4.

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Today all "likely" goes out the window. About 10:00 it will all be final. Patience Grasshopper.:cool:

SCMatt33
03-04-2017, 05:46 PM
Use this site to calculate our seeding based on predictions for Sat. A loss means more than likely we are 6 seed, Win and we are 3-4.

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Interestingly enough, unless Wake ends up coming back, the FSU Miami result will have an interesting effect. An FSU win would mean our game would be the difference between a 4 and 6 seed. A Miami win would mean our game would be the difference between a 3 and 7 seed. Wake winning would help us a ton if we were to lose tonight as we'd only fall to the 5 seed.

arnie
03-04-2017, 05:50 PM
Interestingly enough, unless Wake ends up coming back, the FSU Miami result will have an interesting effect. An FSU win would mean our game would be the difference between a 4 and 6 seed. A Miami win would mean our game would be the difference between a 3 and 7 seed. Wake winning would help us a ton if we were to lose tonight as we'd only fall to the 5 seed.

Looks like FSU and beet we do us a 4.

cbarry
03-04-2017, 06:08 PM
Looks like FSU and beet we do us a 4.
Yup. And unfortunately, we will be on UNC's side of the bracket no matter what happens tonight... Always tough to beat a team 3 times! (Optimistic about tonight-- I feel a 1-point win on a Grayson basket, and Chapel Hill implodes!)

El_Diablo
03-04-2017, 06:12 PM
Yup. And unfortunately, we will be on UNC's side of the bracket no matter what happens tonight... Always tough to beat a team 3 times! (Optimistic about tonight-- I feel a 1-point win on a Grayson basket, and Chapel Hill implodes!)

We would fall to 6th if we lose and Va Tech beats Wake Forest.

duke2x
03-04-2017, 06:14 PM
Yup. And unfortunately, we will be on UNC's side of the bracket no matter what happens tonight... Always tough to beat a team 3 times! (Optimistic about tonight-- I feel a 1-point win on a Grayson basket, and Chapel Hill implodes!)

Wake is making a furious comeback to lead VT on the road. Don't watch if you like defense.

Updated Seeds with UL-ND and FSU-Miami in place:

Duke W = No. 4

Duke L, VT L = No. 5

Duke L, VT W = No. 6

cbarry
03-04-2017, 06:23 PM
Well in that case... go Hokies! (On the off chance we lose tonight, a #6 seed would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from the CHeaters.)


Wake is making a furious comeback to lead VT on the road. Don't watch if you like defense.

Updated Seeds with UL-ND and FSU-Miami in place:

Duke W = No. 4

Duke L, VT L = No. 5

Duke L, VT W = No. 6

dukelifer
03-04-2017, 06:33 PM
Well in that case... go Hokies! (On the off chance we lose tonight, a #6 seed would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from the CHeaters.)

Looks like Wake has it. They are a dangerous team.

duke2x
03-04-2017, 06:37 PM
1. UNC

2. FSU

3. Louisville

4. Duke/ND

5. ND/Duke

6. UVA

7. VT

8. Syracuse

9. Miami

10. Wake

11. GT

12. Clemson

13. NCSU

14. Pitt

15. BC

Olympic Fan
03-04-2017, 06:44 PM
Okay, ACC standings going into the Duke-UNC game:

1. UNC 13-4 (locked into the No. 1 seed)
2. FSU 12-6 (locked into the No. 2 seed)
3. Notre Dame 12-6
4. Louisville 12-6
5. Duke 11-6
6. Virginia 11-7 (locked into the No. 6 seed)
7. Virginia Tech 10-8 (locked into the No. 7 seed)
8. Syracuse 10-8 (locked into the No. 8 seed)
9. Miami 10-8 (locked into the No. 9 seed)
10. Wake Forest 9-9 (locked into the No. 10 seed)
11. Georgia Tech 8-10 (locked into the No. 11 seed)
12. Clemson 6-12 (locked into the No. 12 seed)
13. NC State 4-14 (locked into the No. 13 seed)
14. Pitt 4-14 (locked into the No. 14 seed)
15. Boston College 2-16 (locked into the No. 15 seed)

If Duke wins tonight, then Louisville gets the No. 3 seed; Duke gets No. 4 seed; Notre Dame gets No. 5

If UNC wins tonight, then it's No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 4 Louisville, No. 5 Duke

Note: I see duke 2x beat me to this ... but I think he's wrong. Notre Dame gets the No. 3 seed ahead of Louisville if Duke loses ... Notre Dame drops to No. 5 in Duke wins.

cbarry
03-04-2017, 06:49 PM
What am I missing? The ACC Tourney scenario generator http://bball.notnothing.net/accbracket.php has the seedings for 3-5 a little different from your seedings. ND would be 5th with a Duke win, but 3rd with a Duke loss...

Duke WIN:
3. Louisville
4. Duke
5. Notre Dame

Duke Loss:
3. Notre Dame
4. Louisville
5. Duke


1. UNC

2. FSU

3. Louisville

4. Duke/ND

5. ND/Duke

6. UVA

7. VT

8. Syracuse

9. Miami

10. Wake

11. GT

12. Clemson

13. NCSU

14. Pitt

15. BC

BandAlum83
03-04-2017, 06:52 PM
I'm happy for Wake and for the ACC.

I think the conference can legitimately lay claim to 10 NCAA bids. I think all 10 would have a serious shot at making the sweet 16.

The ACCT beginning Thursday night should feel like a sweet 16. This should be a seriously good tournament.

Troublemaker
03-04-2017, 06:53 PM
Well in that case... go Hokies! (On the off chance we lose tonight, a #6 seed would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from the CHeaters.)

You may be looking at this the wrong way. Same side of the bracket is good.

If we beat UNC tonight, we now get a better chance at a Triple Crown.

If we lose to UNC tonight, we now get a better chance to win the season series 2-1.

stingy
03-04-2017, 06:53 PM
The way I read the tiebreaker rules, in the event of a 4 way tie it looked to me like after they look at the record amongst the 4 teams then they look at the record against the first place team going down. In that case we would be ahead of Louisville due to the potential 2-0 record against UNC. I know we lost to Louisville but it sounded like that didn't matter since they look at the record among all the teams in the tie. Anyone else see it that way? This is what I was using for the rules: http://www.syracuse.com/acc/index.ssf/2016/02/acc_mens_basketball_tiebreaker_rules_and_procedure s_for_determining_tournament_s.html

Tripping William
03-04-2017, 06:57 PM
Think of it this way: A loss tonight & we get the Clemson/State winner on Wednesday. Win tonight, and it's ND/State/Clemson survivor on Thursday. We could really benefit from winning tonight.

devildeac
03-04-2017, 06:59 PM
Think of it this way: A loss tonight & we get the Clemson/State winner on Wednesday. Win tonight, and it's ND/State/Clemson survivor on Thursday. We could really benefit from winning tonight.

In so, so many ways. ;)

jhmoss1812
03-04-2017, 07:05 PM
12 of the 15 seeds are locked in

1 - UNC
2 - FSU
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 - UVA
7 - VT
8 - Cuse
9 - Miami
10 - Wake
11 - GT
12 - Clemson
13 - NCSU
14 - Pitt
15 - BC

If UNC beats Duke, ND 3, Louisville 4, Duke 5
If Duke beats UNC, Louisville 3, Duke 4, ND 5

Troublemaker
03-04-2017, 07:06 PM
The way I read the tiebreaker rules, in the event of a 4 way tie it looked to me like after they look at the record amongst the 4 teams then they look at the record against the first place team going down. In that case we would be ahead of Louisville due to the potential 2-0 record against UNC. I know we lost to Louisville but it sounded like that didn't matter since they look at the record among all the teams in the tie. Anyone else see it that way? This is what I was using for the rules: http://www.syracuse.com/acc/index.ssf/2016/02/acc_mens_basketball_tiebreaker_rules_and_procedure s_for_determining_tournament_s.html

Using those rules, rule 3(d) takes effect and Duke loses the tiebreaker to Louisville due to head-to-head record because there are only two teams that remain tied after applying the round-robin record tiebreaker. (i.e. FSU gets the 2 seed and ND gets the 5 seed, but Duke and Louisville remain tied.)

Hopefully that make sense.

gam7
03-04-2017, 07:20 PM
12 of the 15 seeds are locked in

1 - UNC
2 - FSU
3 -
4 -
5 -
6 - UVA
7 - VT
8 - Cuse
9 - Miami
10 - Wake
11 - GT
12 - Clemson
13 - NCSU
14 - Pitt
15 - BC

If UNC beats Duke, ND 3, Louisville 4, Duke 5
If Duke beats UNC, Louisville 3, Duke 4, ND 5

In scenario #1, we'd get Louisville in the quarters (if we get there)? Tonight is becoming more and more important...

Olympic Fan
03-04-2017, 10:45 PM
Pretty sure this is the final bracket:

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (6-12) vs. No. 13 NC State (4-14)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Wake Forest (9-9) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-16)
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-10) vs. No. 14 Pitt (4-14)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Syracuse (10-8) vs. No. 9 Miami (10-8)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (11-7) vs. Clemson-NC State winner
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-8) vs. Wake Forest-BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Virginia (11-7) vs. Ga Tech-Pitt winner

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (14-4) vs. Syracuse-Miami winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville (12-6) vs. Duke/Clemson/NC State winner
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (12-6) vs. Virginia Tech/Wake/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Notre Dame (12-6) vs. Virginia/Ga Tech/Pitt winner

Duke could very well open play against NC State for the third year in a row. Personally, I'd love another shot at them. But more likely we get Clemson, which is tough, but beatable.

I'll worry about Louisville if we get that far.

jimrowe0
03-04-2017, 11:39 PM
Lousville is the one team I would really prefer not to play, but let's take it one game at a time

DangerDevil
03-04-2017, 11:55 PM
Lousville is the one team I would really prefer not to play, but let's take it one game at a time

I agree, wish we were playing ND in the quarters. Here's to hoping that playing the day before works in our favor and we don't get too worn out playing 4 games in 4 days.

gofurman
03-05-2017, 12:23 AM
Pretty sure this is the final bracket:

Tuesday
Noon -- No. 12 Clemson (6-12) vs. No. 13 NC State (4-14)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 10 Wake Forest (9-9) vs. No. 15 Boston College (2-16)
7 p.m. -- No. 11 Georgia Tech (8-10) vs. No. 14 Pitt (4-14)

Wednesday
Noon -- No. 8 Syracuse (10-8) vs. No. 9 Miami (10-8)
2:30 p.m. -- No. 5 Duke (11-7) vs. Clemson-NC State winner
7 p.m. -- No. 7 Virginia Tech (10-8) vs. Wake Forest-BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 6 Virginia (11-7) vs. Ga Tech-Pitt winner

Thursday
Noon -- No. 1 UNC (14-4) vs. Syracuse-Miami winner
2:30 p.m. -- No. 4 seed Louisville (12-6) vs. Duke/Clemson/NC State winner
7 p.m. -- No. 2 seed Florida State (12-6) vs. Virginia Tech/Wake/BC winner
9:30 p.m. -- No. 3 seed Notre Dame (12-6) vs. Virginia/Ga Tech/Pitt winner

Duke could very well open play against NC State for the third year in a row. Personally, I'd love another shot at them. But more likely we get Clemson, which is tough, but beatable.

I'll worry about Louisville if we get that far.

I think I prefer playing Clemson just bc they don't have the 'freaky fast PG" factor of Dennis Smith. Though both were nail biters. We beat the Tigers at Cameron by two. And lost to State by two. I do think Clemson is better than their record - KENPOM has them as the 36th best team. But I think I would prefer them. Either way I just hope we win at least one tourney game and then get rested. So let's have State and CUTigers play OT