MBB: Syracuse 78, Duke 75, Post-Game Thread

[pfrduke]

Can't go giving up 53 points in the second half.

[subzero02]

Not a good way to end the game...

[Karl Beem]

Well deserved loss.

If Allen can't play - let him rest.

[kshepinthehouse]

Can't go giving up 53 points in the second half.

I don't understand what happened. First half looked like they couldn't get open. Second half looked like no one was guarding them.

[Fish80]

Well deserved loss.

If Allen can't play - let him rest.

Disagree.

Syracuse won. Give them credit.

Next game.

[Troublemaker]

Can't go giving up 53 points in the second half.

Yep. Can't blow all those opportunities to have a bigger lead in the 1st half, too.

Coach K's buddy Boeheim probably gets an NCAA bid now.

[Brockt10]

We didn't deserve the win. What a disappointment in how hard the team played.

[kshepinthehouse]

Disagree.

Syracuse won. Give them credit.

Next game.

If Duke finishes easy transition buckets in the first half it would have been over at halftime.

[ChrisP]

Can't go giving up 53 points in the second half.

Yikes, didn't realize it was THAT bad in the 2nd but Cuse shot out of their minds, too. This game was lost in the first half though with all those blown opportunities. Don't know WHAT we were doing on the break and then Grayson couldn't hit the backside of a barn! Ugh, this one stings. Gotta give credit to Syracuse but we're a better team and we handed this one to them. The horrible 4th foul calls on Grayson, Luke and Frank didn't help, either!

[CarmenWallaceWade]

didn't lose on that last second shot. had our chances to break the game open early and didn't. disappointing, but learn and move on.

[Troublemaker]

I don't understand what happened. First half looked like they couldn't get open. Second half looked like no one was guarding them.

They started the second half by picking on Duke's PNR defense. Then towards the end of the half they had a couple of hot hands in Battle and Gillon who could make individual plays.

[WakeDevil]

We needed the New England football coach to be in charge of the defense in the second half. Stop what they like to do best.

When there is that much time between the shot clock and the game clock, get and good look and let the defense take care of things. All coaches do it, but it's wrong.

[dyedwab]

Syracuse played a great second half. But we lost because we made a lot of sloppy plays and bad decisions in both halves. We gave good effort, but we lost because we made silly decisions all game that cost us points on both ends.

And we don't play defense. I mean, at all.

This team....

[duke4ever19]

All those blunders on fast-break opportunities in the first half. Ugh.

[subzero02]

If Duke finishes easy transition buckets in the first half it would have been over at halftime.

Allen seemed to revert to some selfishness on the fastbreak... didn't hit a wide open Tatum.

[pfrduke]

They started the second half by picking on Duke's PNR defense. Then towards the end of the half they had a couple of hot hands in Battle and Gillon who could make individual plays.

Make individual plays / bank in some ridiculous shots.

[53n206]

Good team, but not as good as we had hoped. Questionable defense at best. We have great needs at center and guard. Is there help in the future (next year)r?

[duketaylor]

Grayson has no lift to shoot. Maybe sit him for a week. Bad ankle sucks.
Not worried about tonight after several wins in a row, no biggie. Was surprised K was pissed, or least looked pissed the whole game about something.

Any thoughts on K being/looking pissed the entire game?

[hallcity]

Lost the game in the first half. Should have been up 15-20 at the half but didn't take advantage of the opportunities available.

I hate losing on a banked three.

[kshepinthehouse]

Grayson has no lift to shoot. Maybe sit him for a week. Bad ankle sucks.
Not worried about tonight after several wins in a row, no biggie. Was surprised K was pissed, or least looked pissed the whole game about something.

Any thoughts on K being/looking pissed the entire game?

He didn't like the way they were playing lol

[DavidBenAkiva]

Health is the first most important thing for this team at the moment. Sit Allen as much as possible. Jefferson, too. We have multiple centers. Giles can play, Bolden should do well against Miami. Heck, give Jeter and Vrankovic some minutes for fun. Just get these guys healed. Allen's a shell of himself again with these ankle rolls. We obviously need him at full strength.

[dukebluesincebirth]

2 bank shots in the last 2 minutes? Seriously? Grayson couldn't throw it in the ocean but kept trying. Our guards have to find a way to slow down penetration or we're in trouble.

[kAzE]

All those blunders on fast-break opportunities in the first half. Ugh.

That, and the last 2 possessions on offense . . . all of them were cringeworthy, and they were part of Grayson Allen's worst performance of the year. I think it's time to rest him for a game, because he has not been half the player he was for that 4 game stretch before he twisted the ankle. We really should have won that game.

[FerryFor50]

I didn't think the defense looked *that* awful in the 2nd half. Lots of Syracuse shots were contested. 3 of Battle's were fadeaways. One was a contested bank. All were long twos.

They had bad moments that got Cuse going, but down the stretch, Cuse just hit tough shots for the most part.

Allen, Jones and Jackson all had off shooting days. Tatum didn't touch the ball on the last two possessions. Allen took an ill-advised long 3 on the next to last possession with Duke up 2, under a minute to go. The offense didn't look very good at all most of the evening, but especially on that last possession. Why did they think Kennard was going to break Cuse down off the dribble rather than moving the ball and getting a good shot?

As a positive, it was a loss on the road to a Cuse team that has beaten good teams. And it was on a banked three at the buzzer. Which was also heavily contested. And Amile and Giles looked pretty great.

I wouldn't take too much away from the loss. It happens. And, the ball finally bounced the wrong way for Duke down the stretch after a long winning streak. Next play.

[gocanes0506]

Well 1st off Cuse just threw crap up and it went in during the second half.

2nd off pathetic end to the game. 2 possessions where everyone stands around. Pathetic. State game type ending.

You will lose a game when a team just shoots well above their average. I hate being a part and watching those games. They happen but it makes watching a chance to win worse.

Lastly, transition O needs work.

[rtnorthrup]

I am simply scratching my head to understand why Coach K called his last timeout with 2:30(ish) left in the game after Duke hit a basket to take the lead. We didn't make a substitution, and I believe that the under 4 media TO was still coming. We looked absolutely lost on the last two possessions. Allen takes a long three with WAY TOO much time left on the shot clock, and there was a clear lack of communication between Allen and Kennard on the final possession.

[Fish80]

Relax. Breathe. Next play.

We will learn. Lots of good. Some opportunities for improvement.

It ain't over!

[arnie]

Syracuse played a great second half. But we lost because we made a lot of sloppy plays and bad decisions in both halves. We gave good effort, but we lost because we made silly decisions all game that cost us points on both ends.

And we don't play defense. I mean, at all.

This team...

Frustrating: but with Jones/Allen/Jackson a combined 2 of 17 from 3 and horrible D overall, I think we're lucky it was even close. Amile kept us in it with great ft shooting and Giles looked better. But Duke's top end won't be that high if we can't stop any penetration.

[mailman2927]

Exciting game, tough loss. The bball gods weren't on our side tonight. At least 2 shots bank in including game winner. Give Cuse credit, Battle and Gillon got hot and they killed us at FT line (think they only missed 2 all game). We missed too many transition opportunities in 1st half. Lost a game we could have won, to a desperate team on the road, with major foul trouble to 3 key guys. We'll be fine (didn't think so a month ago, but i was wrong).

[wsb3]

Grayson has no lift to shoot. Maybe sit him for a week. Bad ankle sucks.
Not worried about tonight after several wins in a row, no biggie. Was surprised K was pissed, or least looked pissed the whole game about something.

Any thoughts on K being/looking pissed the entire game?

He watched the same missed opportunities that we did. Sideline reporter said at halftime that Capel said they should have been up much more than 8..I can't believe the missed fast break chances that were blown.

I hope this is a wake up call because one thing that has really concerned me even during the winning streak is not putting teams away. Clemson could have thrown up a bank shot at the buzzer & won. Several other examples.

K does pretty darn well with using a loss as a teaching example. I really hope he gets their attention after this one.

[grossbus]

I can't remember us getting so many offensive rebounds...to no avail.

[Fish80]

We had an off shooting night. They got hot in the dome.

We made some mistakes. Those mistakes can be fixed. Our ceiling is high.

GO DUKE!

[lifelongdevil]

Frustrating: but with Jones/Allen/Jackson a combined 2 of 17 from 3 and horrible D overall, I think we're lucky it was even close. Amile kept us in it with great ft shooting and Giles looked better. But Duke's top end won't be that high if we can't stop any penetration.

Agreed, especially when the opposition goes 17-21 from field and 15-17 ft in second half. Granted 2 of those 17 were banks....

Given K's comments last weekend and Grayson moving in slow motion tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see him sit on Saturday.

[dyedwab]

He watched the same missed opportunities that we did. Sideline reporter said at halftime that Capel said they should have been up much more than 8..I can't believe the missed fast break chances that were blown.

I hope this is a wake up call because one thing that has really concerned me even during the winning streak is not putting teams away. Clemson could have thrown up a bank shot at the buzzer & won. Several other examples.

K does pretty darn well with using a loss as a teaching example. I really hope he gets their attention after this one.

This has been a problem all year. A lack of focus and intensity for non-trivial periods of time. Taking our foot off the gas. That's what happened tonight. This team makes it harder than it should be for it to win by doing that.

[Saratoga2]

Our transition offense was poor in the first half. It didn't look like we had anyone capable of running the point. Neither Grayson or Frank fulfilled the transition facilitator role and even Jayson had his issues. Looked like we didn't have the killer instinct and couldn't put Syracuse away. When Harry came in for Amile, we seemed to gain inside presence and appeared to have an advantage but didn't get the ball inside very often.

We let Syracuse hang around and then our offense seemed to have problems getting opportunities inside. All of Frank, Grayson and Matt were having poor shooting nights and they seemed to wind up taking a lot of long bombs. Very inefficient.

Luke, Jayson and Amile toward the end were the spark but we got so little out of others that Syracuse pulled this one out. They deserved to win with the 2nd half energy they showed.

[Fish80]

Agreed, especially when the opposition goes 17-21 from field and 15-17 ft in second half. Granted 2 of those 17 were banks...

Given K's comments last weekend and Grayson moving in slow motion tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see him sit on Saturday.

This is a crazy year. I wouldn't be surprised if monkeys flew out of the trash.

[NYBri]

Ugh.

Ole.

Next game.

[Troublemaker]

Grayson has no lift to shoot. Maybe sit him for a week. Bad ankle sucks.
Not worried about tonight after several wins in a row, no biggie. Was surprised K was pissed, or least looked pissed the whole game about something.

Any thoughts on K being/looking pissed the entire game?


He didn't like the way they were playing lol

Yeah, blown fast breaks in the 1st half. Bad defense in the 2nd half. No reason not to be upset as a coach.

But, also no reason to overreact after the game either.

Also, some credit to Cuse. They've been very good at home. All their home results in conference:

Cuse 70, Miami 55
Cuse 77, Pitt 66
Cuse 76, BC 53
Cuse 81, Wake 76
Cuse 82, FSU 72
Cuse 66, UVA 62
Lville 76, Cuse 72 (OT)
Cuse 78, Duke 75

7-1 at home with only an overtime loss to a possible 1-seed.

[kshepinthehouse]

Agreed, especially when the opposition goes 17-21 from field and 15-17 ft in second half. Granted 2 of those 17 were banks...

Given K's comments last weekend and Grayson moving in slow motion tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see him sit on Saturday.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a team shoot that type of percentage in a half before against Duke. Crazy to think we let a team shoot 81% against us in a half, and we still almost won lol.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I thought we had a good approach against the zone, excepting the last 2 possessions.

The biggest takeaways for me are that it can hurt our seeding some and Grayson is still a shell of himself since the Clemson ankle injury. The big 3 is a big 2 right now.

[UrinalCake]

Grayson shouldn't have even been in uniform tonight. All he did was jack up 30 foot shots on offense, and on defense he couldn't do anything even before picking up four fouls. There were some positives to the game - offensive rebounding, Tatum's first half, good ball movement to find the bigs underneath the defense. Giles played good minutes and Amile hit some clutch free throws. But between the fouls and the two banked shots that went in, it just wasn't going to happen tonight.

[dukelifer]

Agreed, especially when the opposition goes 17-21 from field and 15-17 ft in second half. Granted 2 of those 17 were banks...

Given K's comments last weekend and Grayson moving in slow motion tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see him sit on Saturday.

That is amazing. They really were not missing. I thought it was my imagination.

[DBFAN]

Anyone else catch the comment about doing this for Rasheed. He played HS ball with Sheed. Glad he kept it classy

[Kjeffrey]

Grayson shouldn't have even been in uniform tonight. All he did was jack up 30 foot shots on offense, and on defense he couldn't do anything even before picking up four fouls. There were some positives to the game - offensive rebounding, Tatum's first half, good ball movement to find the bigs underneath the defense. Giles played good minutes and Amile hit some clutch free throws. But between the fouls and the two banked shots that went in, it just wasn't going to happen tonight.

As unhappy as K seemed with their play I thought he would have gone deeper into the bench but not so much.

[Devil Inside]

My thought...Giles is looking more and more like the number one recruit. He needs more minutes.

[BandAlum83]

Congratulations to Syracuse: a bubble team clearly determined to win tonight. Playing like an invite to the dance was on the line.

That Gillen kid was on fire. He sure knows how to finish at the rim, huh?

Next play.

[KandG]

53 point second half for Syracuse, plus Grayson/Frank/Matt combining to miss 15 of 17 three pointers were the numbers that stuck out most to me.

Have to wonder if all those missed 3s got in the heads of the guys on defense, because defense at the point of attack in the second half was dreadful. We did defend White well and Battle made some tough jumpers, but it just all ended up being too easy for Syracuse once they got rolling. As others have said already, the game should have been over in the first half.

To Syracuse's credit, they did contain Tatum more effectively in the 2nd half -- after a 14 point, 10 rebound, 3 assist first half, he had 5 pts/3 rebs/3 assists in the second -- but it did open things up for Luke and Amile (14 and 13 points in the second half). Clearly, scoring wasn't an issue for us.

Not a surprise to see us lose by reverting to some of the things that characterized our shaky road outings earlier in the season: getting into the bonus early in the second half, giving up a big run in the same period (36 points in 12 minutes after limiting them to 25 in the first half is just obscene). Still we probably should have closed it out, but their zone worked to make us settle for some questionable shots late in the game.

Grayson is so obviously not himself, made three terrible transition decisions in the first (passed when he should have shot, shot when he should have passed, passed to the wrong shooter), had only one assist, yet he still sees things on the court that his teammates largely don't ( had at least two skip passes over the zone that should have resulted in threes in the 2nd half), so I sort of get K playing him in limited stretches. This Duke team has a very obvious ceiling when he's at 50 to 60 percent. Starting to wonder if he should just sit out the ACC tournament if his ankle issues linger and have the team just live with whatever seed/region is assigned.

[Kjeffrey]

Anyone else catch the comment about doing this for Rasheed. He played HS ball with Sheed. Glad he kept it classy

I heard it but didn't understand at all. Thanks for clarifying.

[Devilwin]

Syracuse played a great second half. But we lost because we made a lot of sloppy plays and bad decisions in both halves. We gave good effort, but we lost because we made silly decisions all game that cost us points on both ends.

And we don't play defense. I mean, at all.

This team...

Best take I've read so far. You are spot on. This is one that will sting for a while, and it should. Grayson had no business playing tonight. He struggled all night and made poor decisions with his shots. He had no lift on his shots. The regular season title was in reach, maybe it still is, but it's gonna be difficult now. You gotta be realistic and say we just handed them an early Christmas present..Giles looked really good tonight, glad to see that. But for the life of me I do not get why we cannot stop 5'11" players driving past us constantly for layups.

[rsvman]

Matt Jones is the man. White has a total of 7 points. Barely got the ball. His defense wad almost enough to get us the win even when everything else was going wrong. I switched Matt to Battle in the last couple of minutes when it was obvious he was on a roll.

Our offense on the last two possessions looked exactly like UVa's. The perfect way to fail against the zone.

And then to have them make two crap bank shots in the last two minutes? Really? After all that?

[FerryFor50]

53 point second half for Syracuse, plus Grayson/Frank/Matt combining to miss 15 of 17 three pointers were the numbers that stuck out most to me.

Have to wonder if all those missed 3s got in the heads of the guys on defense, because defense at the point of attack in the second half was dreadful. We did defend White well and Battle made some tough jumpers, but it just all ended up being too easy for Syracuse once they got rolling. As others have said already, the game should have been over in the first half.


I think being saddled with 4 fouls got into Frank and Allen's heads on defense more.

[CameronBlue]

Aside from the loss sucking about 8 ways from Thursday, game pressure --every possession the last 5 minutes seemed pivotal--will prove valuable down the line. The team, Luke, didn't handle the last possession well. Next time they will.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

It's all part of the master plan. Fly under the radar. Sneak up on everyone and win it all.

[rsvman]

One more thing....the switching really didn't make sense when Grayson had four fouls and ends up underneath guarding Lydon. That was a coaching mistake, in my opinion.

[elvis14]

Well that sucked. Allen was just bad tonight. We needed either him or Jackson to hit open 3's, they didn't. The blown fast breaks cost us at a crucial time. We really could have run them out of the building in the first half. Two shots for Syr. banked in on accident including the last second prayer were the difference in the game. Didn't think the game was called evenly at all (multiple mystery fouls and Allen can't buy a call). Just disappointing because we should have won this going away. Great first half by Tatum. Steady play by Amile. Dribble penetration got us again...and again we didn't go zone to combat it, just let it beat us again (like NCSU). At least we got Vitale instead of Bilas (Jay has his dream job tonight pimping UNCheat).

If Grayson is hurt, he needs to sit. Jack White can hit more than one open 3 in a game or we have multiple other guys that aren't hurt that can help us while he heals.

[Kjeffrey]

Best take I've read so far. You are spot on. This is one that will sting for a while, and it should. Grayson had no business playing tonight. He struggled all night and made poor decisions with his shots. He had no lift on his shots. The regualr season title was in reach, maybe it still is, but it's gonna be difficult now. You gotta be realistic and say we just handed them an early Christmas present..

To me it looked like a combination of a lingering injury (very little elevation) and some very bad decision making. Allen seemed angry and it affected his play.

[KandG]

I think being saddled with 4 fouls got into Frank and Allen's heads on defense more.

Defending without fouling is part of good defense, though, especially when both of them had only one foul in the first. In fairness, each player got a questionable whistle on at least one foul, but the officials seemed to be rewarding Syracuse's much more aggressive play in the second.

[WVDUKEFAN]

Grayson has no lift to shoot. Maybe sit him for a week. Bad ankle sucks.
Not worried about tonight after several wins in a row, no biggie. Was surprised K was pissed, or least looked pissed the whole game about something.

Any thoughts on K being/looking pissed the entire game?

He sure was. Lol. I saw it too.

[dukelifer]

A very tough loss. Duke was better than Syracuse but let them get confidence and then they just were unconscious. It happens. But not sure Duke can salvage the ACC unless they win out. The last two games will be very tough games- as both teams will be hypermotivated. Unless Allen is fully healthy- this Duke team is very limited. I don't expect that he will be healed on Sat- which means Duke will have another nail biter. Tough decisions for K and the staff as to whether to keep him out. This team could get hot and make a run if Allen plays like he did in the 4 game stretch. We will see. Right now- it is not looking good for a strong finish to the regular season due to a key injury.

[Kjeffrey]

Is Allen's injury from much earlier in the season or something more recent? Combination of both?

[FerryFor50]

A very tough loss. Duke was better than Syracuse but let them get confidence and then they just were unconscious. It happens. But not sure Duke can salvage the ACC unless they win out. The last two games will be very tough games- as both teams will be hypermotivated. Unless Allen is fully healthy- this Duke team is very limited. I don't expect that he will be healed on Sat- which means Duke will have another nail biter. Tough decisions for K and the staff as to whether to keep him out. This team could get hot and make a run if Allen plays like he did in the 4 game stretch. We will see. Right now- it is not looking good for a strong finish to the regular season due to a key injury.

I'm all for rolling the dice on the rest of the regular season and holding Allen out until UNC and limiting Amile's minutes to let them heal up. It would be a long shot to win the reg season at this point anyway.

[FerryFor50]

Is Allen's injury from much earlier in the season or something more recent? Combination of both?

First it was turf toe. That got a little better, but isn't 100%.

Then he dislocated his finger.

He's also turned his ankle twice. That's the most recent ailment.

Plus, dealing with all the mental crap all season.

[Devilwin]

I agree. He did not help us tonight, and maybe he can heal up by then and be himself.

[subzero02]

Anyone else catch the comment about doing this for Rasheed. He played HS ball with Sheed. Glad he kept it classy

That's a little messed up. I hope we see them in the tournament.

[UrinalCake]

I'm all for rolling the dice on the rest of the regular season and holding Allen out until UNC and limiting Amile's minutes to let them heal up. It would be a long shot to win the reg season at this point anyway.

It's a calculated risk - sitting Allen and dropping the next two or three games means we likely have to play on Wednesday of the ACC Tournament, giving us one less day of rest and requiring us to play one more game to get to the same point. And if we just throw the whole ACCT then we're looking at a much lower seed and don't have any geographic preference.

OTOH if Allen is as limited as he was tonight then by all means he should be sitting regardless.

[Neals384]

In the pre-game thread, duke4ever19 posted a very good video "The Syracuse 2-3 zone:What Works and What Doesn't. One point of emphasis in the vfideo is the damage that can be done to the Zone by passing to the corner. Evidently Duke never got the memo.

[fan345678]

I'm all for rolling the dice on the rest of the regular season and holding Allen out until UNC and limiting Amile's minutes to let them heal up. It would be a long shot to win the reg season at this point anyway.

Top-4 in ACC would be nice, so we'd get a 2-day bye.

[UrinalCake]

First it was turf toe. That got a little better, but isn't 100%.

Then he dislocated his finger.

He's also turned his ankle twice. That's the most recent ailment.

Plus, dealing with all the mental crap all season.

I remember in the open practice at the very start of the season (before Countdown to Craziness) he also sat out with some sort of thigh injury.

[BlueDevilWildcat]

It seems pretty clear to me that we don't have a good strategy when it comes to our Defense, this year and several of the recent past. Since I don't study the game, I'm curious if some of the more knowledgable posters can explain whether we have a bad strategy or simply no strategy at all.

The essence of a good strategy is that it has a diagnosis, it specifies an approach to dealing with the diagnosis, and it then has a coherent set of actions that support the approach. I see nothing in our approach that looks like good strategy, which is curious given the experience on our bench. My amateur diagnosis is that we conflate Goals with Strategy, that "getting better" or "trying harder" is about as far as we go.

If the staff acknowledges that our PnR defense is terrible, for example, yet does little (or nothing?) to modify our approach (whether it be with the D we play, changing the combinations of players on the floor, etc.), how can we expect to get better?

It's strange that our recent teams are quite often afflicted with the same Defensive issues. Surely years is long enough to devise a new strategy, yet I see nothing new in place. Perhaps closer observers can point out how the staff has effectively implemented new strategies the past few years?

[UrinalCake]

It seems pretty clear to me that we don't have a good strategy when it comes to our Defense, this year and several of the recent past. Since I don't study the game, I'm curious if some of the more knowledgable posters can explain whether we have a bad strategy or simply no strategy at all.

I have very limited knowledge but my understanding of K's strategy is to take away open three pointers at the expense of giving up easy twos. He does this by switching every screen (so that the ball handler doesn't get any separation coming around the screen, during which he would otherwise be briefly open to take a three) and by extending the defense to stay up in the guard's faces, which makes it harder for them to shoot but easier to drive past their defender.

While it makes sense that three points is worth more than two, it seems to me (an apparently many others, none of whom know as much about basketball as Coach K) that giving up layups and uncontested dunks is worth than giving up open or mildly contested threes. And our opponents all know that our strategy is to switch everything, so they just set easy screens to force a switch and then they have a mismatch at both positions.

[Billy Dat]

The stretch from around 17:00 - 12:00 when we made a bunch of stupid fouls and enabled their insane free throw shooting was also a key factor. When we kept fighting as Amile was scoring and making his FTs, I thought we were going to steal it back. Someone said the bball gods were on the side of the Orange and it kind of felt that way. It's not a great loss as we could have won but I thought we showed some toughness without our best stuff. I look forward to K's presser because he did look angry for most of the second half.

[SkyBrickey]

Syracuse beat us. Hostile crowd. Tyus Battle went all Dennis Smith on us.

But I'm taking a lot of positives away from this game. 1) Giles is coming on STRONG - the key to a deep run in March, 2) Tatum is playing like an All American - rebounding and passing are much better, 3) our defense wasn't good in the 2nd half but I still think overall it's showing improvement and flashes of potential. I don't think tonight was a step back for our team.

Next game.

[Newton_14]

They started the second half by picking on Duke's PNR defense. Then towards the end of the half they had a couple of hot hands in Battle and Gillon who could make individual plays.

I shouldn't be posting so ignore if needed, but as long as we insist on switching on that screen allowing the opponent to have Amile, Tatum, or Giles alone on an island with a quick PG licking their chops at the easy layup coming, or the big who immediately runs back to the paint with a guard half his size now defending him, our defense will continue to be putrid. They switch even when the pick is lazy, then make no attempt to switch a bigger player back onto the opponents big even when they have multiple opportunities to switch back. So no attempt on the initial switch to fight through it and keep small on small and big on big, and no attempt to switch out the guard down low even with a bigger teammate nearby an the ball handler still way out up top. It makes no sense at all to me, but it is what it is.

The game though, was lost in the first half when we blew 6 or 7 fast break opportunities and missed numerous wide open shots, all while we were actually getting stops on defense. So, instead of being up 20 to 24 at the half we are up 8, and they were good enough to make us pay for our first half sins. Banking in two bricks to get 5 points helped them get there but those two shots should have never mattered as we should have had a cushy lead.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Discombobulated on last play. K will ream them. Deserved to lose.

[weezie]

Anyone else catch the comment about doing this for Rasheed. He played HS ball with Sheed. Glad he kept it classy

Such a stupid, boorish thing to say. They won't shoot like that again this season. Screw them.

[Kfanarmy]

Congratulations to Syracuse: a bubble team clearly determined to win tonight. Playing like an invite to the dance was on the line.

That Gillen kid was on fire. He sure knows how to finish at the rim, huh?

Next play.

They made a handful of shots that shouldn't have gone in, including the last one.

There was a sequence of several possessions in a row there in the final few minutes where Duke was credited for fouling on every syracuse posession that they didn't hit a shot that was tough to watch.

[Reddevil]

The frustrating thing about this season is playing to the level of competition. W or L, every game is close. I know there are a multitude of reasons, but it's "raise the bar" time.

On the plus side, how about that 360 by Luke that nearly went in?! I love his skills.

NEXT.

[Billy Dat]

There was a sequence of several possessions in a row there in the final few minutes where Duke was credited for fouling on every syracuse posession that they didn't hit a shot that was tough to watch.

The second half points per possession we surrendered must have been insane. We just could not get stops...at all, and we sent them to the line on a few over the back fouls.

I would have been in favor of some different D looks to to try and get a stop or two when we couldn't keep them from the rim or off the line.

[weezie]

This is a young and emotional team. Still time to learn and grow.

[Saratoga2]

Grayson shouldn't have even been in uniform tonight. All he did was jack up 30 foot shots on offense, and on defense he couldn't do anything even before picking up four fouls. There were some positives to the game - offensive rebounding, Tatum's first half, good ball movement to find the bigs underneath the defense. Giles played good minutes and Amile hit some clutch free throws. But between the fouls and the two banked shots that went in, it just wasn't going to happen tonight.

I agree that Grayson had a poor all around game tonight and probably that contributed strongly to our loss. The question though is what was the alternative. In my view, Frank also had a poor game tonight and also had picked up 4 fouls. are you advocating for a big lineup with Matt, Luke, Jayson, Amile and Harry?

[AFL]

Let's be honest folks. Syracuse is the type of team Duke will face in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This should seriously concern us. Also, with us using only a 7 man rotation, our guys will be completely gassed.

[UrinalCake]

I shouldn't be posting so ignore if needed, but as long as we insist on switching on that screen allowing the opponent to have Amile, Tatum, or Giles alone on an island with a quick PG licking their chops at the easy layup coming, or the big who immediately runs back to the paint with a guard half his size now defending him, our defense will continue to be putrid. They switch even when the pick is lazy, then make no attempt to switch a bigger player back onto the opponents big even when they have multiple opportunities to switch back. So no attempt on the initial switch to fight through it and keep small on small and big on big, and no attempt to switch out the guard down low even with a bigger teammate nearby an the ball handler still way out up top. It makes no sense at all to me, but it is what it is.

The switching doesn't make sense to me. I understand if it's the last possession of the game with five seconds left and you're trying to take away the three. I even understand switching on an aggressive drive to the basket, but you should switch back as soon as you can. The failure to switch back even when the ball is rotated all the way over to the other side of the court is mind boggling. This goes back at least as far as the 1999 title game, before which Jim Calhoun literally bragged on National TV about how he was going to have Elton Brand guard their PG Khalil El-Amin. And then he proceeded to do exactly that by forcing switches.

If K insists on playing this switch-everything type of defense, he should recruit nothing but 6'6-6'9 wing players. Then it might actually work.

[kshepinthehouse]

I agree that Grayson had a poor all around game tonight and probably that contributed strongly to our loss. The question though is what was the alternative. In my view, Frank also had a poor game tonight and also had picked up 4 fouls. are you advocating for a big lineup with Matt, Luke, Jayson, Amile and Harry?

Frank had been playing well in Grayson's spot, not tonight. Has he played better obviously we would have won. I actually thought about the big lineup as well. Might have been worth a shot to go zone with that lineup and see if we can get a stop and a rebound lol.

[CDu]

Awful shooting night overall for us. Awful second half defense from us. The result is as one would expect when those two things happen.

I agree with Newton_14: the big-to-little switching isn't working. It didn't work against Wake and it didn't work tonight. That strategy either needs to go or we really need to do it better. And honestly, I think it should be the former. The Cuse abused us in the second half.

Frustrating to lose a game we should have won. And frustrating to see the same defensive problems we saw against Wake appear against Syracuse. We have to get better defensively if this team is going to threaten for the title.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Can't go giving up 53 points in the second half.

Didn't the leading ACC scorer only have TWO points too??? That Battle guy made some huge shots and no one could contain the PG.

[DBFAN]

I don't think K will rest Allen yet. I think he will do what he did in 15, lose early in ACC tourney and rest him then. After that you win 2 games go home rest again. As long as we finish in top 4 we get that 2 day off. I'm still not 100 percent that Grayson isn't compounding his issues with the down in the dumps attitude he has during some games. Not saying he isn't injured and hurting, but Grayson has games when you can tell he isn't gonna play well in first couple of minutes. Head ha gong complaining constantly. I also found it extremely strange that after he had to sit on bench with 3 fouls, he comes in and immediately fouls, and it wasn't even close to being a smart foul. That kid gets down on himself a lot. Not gonna try and guess why, I have my suspicions but he is just taxed right now

[Hauerwas]

It's hard to give up 53 points in one half to a team that is offensively challenged. But when you have three guys who can't hit, plus K's refusal to utilize his bench to actually provide another look for the opposing team, this is what happens. We are incredibly stagnant, there is nothing that this team is doing that hasn't been utterly scouted and figured out. That we have Giles, Bolden, Delaurrier sitting on the pine at this stage in the year is, well, what do you call it?

The pre-season hype was off the charts, and we all bought it. The reality is that this team is just not very good, and they certainly have yet to figure out how to play team defense, which is probably the worst indictment considering all the talent and athleticism.

Syracuse is not a good basketball team, period. It's maddening to have this much talent and still wind up losing just as many games as a very depleted Duke team did a year ago. Miami will be waiting for us, knowing that K will use a five man second half rotation like always and hope the 3's are actually flying on Saturday, but that isn't a long term strategy for March.

It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special when in reality we have a one and done frosh (Tatum) who plays below the rim, we have Harry who just isn't even close, we have Marques who has had injuries and seems to be trying to find his way, plus Jackson who really struggles to deliver on the road. My apologies for the vent but this year was supposed to be special. I'm still waiting.

But that you cannot play defense is beyond me. get in front of someone. It's all about pride, effort and desire. Get a stop one time and actually want to get a stop. That's a DNA thing and this team has yet to buy in. Sad.

[KandG]

Rewatched the end of the game and it isn't even the two banked shots that went in, or the switching -- there was even a successful double switch where Grayson got switched onto Lydon after Lydon set the high screen, and Amile immediately got onto Lydon and Grayson took Amile's man so that 'Cuse couldn't exploit the mismatch inside. The possession ended in a difficult missed layup by Gillon, one of the only stops we got. 75-73, Duke ball, 1:10 remaining.

What made me ill were the last two offensive possessions. Grayson taking a long 3 with 10 seconds left on the shot clock allowed Syracuse to get a two for one. He's getting killed on social media for that decision, and I can't honestly blame people for that. He may be hurt, but that's just bad clock awareness.

The other offensive possession, where everyone just stood around on the wing -- virtually no screening or cutting to free someone up or distract defenders -- ending with Kennard taking a difficult shot in the teeth of the zone, was equally bad.

If these are the types of situations that build character, then so be it. I know some are criticizing K for running out of timeouts early, which may have led to the lousy endgame, but it looked like he had to call a timeout earlier than he wanted in the 2nd half because we started the 2nd half poorly (after ending the 1st half poorly).

[Furniture]

It's hard to give up 53 points in one half to a team that is offensively challenged. But when you have three guys who can't hit, plus K's refusal to utilize his bench to actually provide another look for the opposing team, this is what happens. We are incredibly stagnant, there is nothing that this team is doing that hasn't been utterly scouted and figured out. That we have Giles, Bolden, Delaurrier sitting on the pine at this stage in the year is, well, what do you call it?

The pre-season hype was off the charts, and we all bought it. The reality is that this team is just not very good, and they certainly have yet to figure out how to play team defense, which is probably the worst indictment considering all the talent and athleticism.

Syracuse is not a good basketball team, period. It's maddening to have this much talent and still wind up losing just as many games as a very depleted Duke team did a year ago. Miami will be waiting for us, knowing that K will use a five man second half rotation like always and hope the 3's are actually flying on Saturday, but that isn't a long term strategy for March.

It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special when in reality we have a one and done frosh (Tatum) who plays below the rim, we have Harry who just isn't even close, we have Marques who has had injuries and seems to be trying to find his way, plus Jackson who really struggles to deliver on the road. My apologies for the vent but this year was supposed to be special. I'm still waiting.

But that you cannot play defense is beyond me. get in front of someone. It's all about pride, effort and desire. Get a stop one time and actually want to get a stop. That's a DNA thing and this team has yet to buy in. Sad.

OMG. Really?

[COYS]

As bad as the defense was in the second half, sloppy turnovers and horrendous transition offense in the first half lost the game. Considering that K didn't rest Grayson or Amile, losing his winnable game really hurts. And we have a tougher match ahead of us this weekend.

The team has shown it is capable of high level play. But consistency is key. I STILL think it's possible to get to the next level this year. But time really is running out.

[duke4ever19]

Someone start the Miami thread already.

[gam7]

I remember in the open practice at the very start of the season (before Countdown to Craziness) he also sat out with some sort of thigh injury.

Truth be told, with his style of play, it was a minor miracle that he did not have nagging/serious injuries last season.

[Furniture]

Adam Rowe‏ @AdamRoweTDDDuke's 8-2 over their last 10 games. Two losses were by a combined 5 points. (https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/status/834588358164766720)

[Troublemaker]

In the pre-game thread, duke4ever19 posted a very good video "The Syracuse 2-3 zone:What Works and What Doesn't. One point of emphasis in the vfideo is the damage that can be done to the Zone by passing to the corner. Evidently Duke never got the memo.

C'mon, the zone attack was great (except in the clutch). The problem was the defense.

We even used Luke in the middle, which was a great idea. Typically you need a little bit more size in there to receive the entry but because Cuse doesn't have its usual length (Gillon is so short), we got away with using Luke and he was brilliant orchestrating from the high post.

[Troublemaker]

Postgame presser. The Cuse site beat GoDuke in getting the vids up:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1B0j29gMaM

[AFL]

It's hard to give up 53 points in one half to a team that is offensively challenged. But when you have three guys who can't hit, plus K's refusal to utilize his bench to actually provide another look for the opposing team, this is what happens. We are incredibly stagnant, there is nothing that this team is doing that hasn't been utterly scouted and figured out. That we have Giles, Bolden, Delaurrier sitting on the pine at this stage in the year is, well, what do you call it?

The pre-season hype was off the charts, and we all bought it. The reality is that this team is just not very good, and they certainly have yet to figure out how to play team defense, which is probably the worst indictment considering all the talent and athleticism.

Syracuse is not a good basketball team, period. It's maddening to have this much talent and still wind up losing just as many games as a very depleted Duke team did a year ago. Miami will be waiting for us, knowing that K will use a five man second half rotation like always and hope the 3's are actually flying on Saturday, but that isn't a long term strategy for March.

It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special when in reality we have a one and done frosh (Tatum) who plays below the rim, we have Harry who just isn't even close, we have Marques who has had injuries and seems to be trying to find his way, plus Jackson who really struggles to deliver on the road. My apologies for the vent but this year was supposed to be special. I'm still waiting.

But that you cannot play defense is beyond me. get in front of someone. It's all about pride, effort and desire. Get a stop one time and actually want to get a stop. That's a DNA thing and this team has yet to buy in. Sad.
You are absolutely 100 percent correct. I totally agree with this!

[curtis325]

Let's be honest folks. Syracuse is the type of team Duke will face in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. This should seriously concern us. Also, with us using only a 7 man rotation, our guys will be completely gassed.


If Duke gets a 4 seed, Syracuse is the kind of team they will face in the first round.

[dukelifer]

Top-4 in ACC would be nice, so we'd get a 2-day bye.

But K noted that it might be more critical if Duke puts everything in for the NCAA run. Duke may end up as a 3/4 or 5 seed unless they have a great run at the end.

[dukelifer]

If Duke gets a 4 seed, Syracuse is the kind of team they will face in the first round.

Happy to see a Cuse like team again. Everything had to go almost perfect for them to win.

[DukieInBrasil]

Our inability to competently run the fast break in the 1st half cost us this game. Grayson's inability to make good decisions withe ball hurt us badly.
This felt like a game would should have easily been winning but we always made just the right mistake to kill our momentum and let them get back in it.
It's a notoriously difficult place to play, and we did play well at times, just not enough of the time.
I like that we got lots of Oboards. I like that both Tatum and Kennard were able to find seems in the zone and exploit its weaknesses. Everyone not named Tatum or Kennard shot 2-17 from 3, (tho)ugh. Tatum played an amazing all-around game, and almost made up for Allen's performance. His ankle must still be bothering him, b/c he just doesn't look like the same player since UNC game. Amile was super clutch from the line, but you can also tell that he isn't playing at 100%.

[jipops]

I also think this would be a good time to rest up GA. The conference title is out of reach. And we don't stand any better chance at Miami with a hobbled Allen than without him. I think we take another L in Coral Gables anyway. Would love to see us reasonably healthy for a big win in the last home game followed by hopefully a decent showing at the cheats. I think going 1-3 in our last 4 is a reasonable expectation.

[FerryFor50]

Postgame presser. The Cuse site beat GoDuke in getting the vids up:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1B0j29gMaM

LOL at the snark when the reporter admitted K knows more than him.

[dukelifer]

It's hard to give up 53 points in one half to a team that is offensively challenged. But when you have three guys who can't hit, plus K's refusal to utilize his bench to actually provide another look for the opposing team, this is what happens. We are incredibly stagnant, there is nothing that this team is doing that hasn't been utterly scouted and figured out. That we have Giles, Bolden, Delaurrier sitting on the pine at this stage in the year is, well, what do you call it?

The pre-season hype was off the charts, and we all bought it. The reality is that this team is just not very good, and they certainly have yet to figure out how to play team defense, which is probably the worst indictment considering all the talent and athleticism.

Syracuse is not a good basketball team, period. It's maddening to have this much talent and still wind up losing just as many games as a very depleted Duke team did a year ago. Miami will be waiting for us, knowing that K will use a five man second half rotation like always and hope the 3's are actually flying on Saturday, but that isn't a long term strategy for March.

It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special when in reality we have a one and done frosh (Tatum) who plays below the rim, we have Harry who just isn't even close, we have Marques who has had injuries and seems to be trying to find his way, plus Jackson who really struggles to deliver on the road. My apologies for the vent but this year was supposed to be special. I'm still waiting.

But that you cannot play defense is beyond me. get in front of someone. It's all about pride, effort and desire. Get a stop one time and actually want to get a stop. That's a DNA thing and this team has yet to buy in. Sad.
Perhaps you have not been watching this team. The preseason hype ended in the preseason when Giles and Tatum were both injured to start the season. Once you realized that Giles was not going be healthy all year and Bolden was not the second coming of Brand- and once you realized that Duke was limited with the suspension and injuries to Allen and the injuries to Amile and Jeter- you have what you have- a good team that can play with anyone but has little margin for error. Sorry this Duke team is not special enough for you. Fortunately, they still have a chance to make a run.

[Troublemaker]

Postgame presser. The Cuse site beat GoDuke in getting the vids up:


Just finished watching. You know, if hunger is at all a problem for this team, I highly recommend the previously discussed plan of resting Grayson and Amile.

You know who's hungry? Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson.

[weezie]

K, such a class guy. Always makes me proud to stand in a bit of his shadow...

[KandG]

It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special when in reality we have a one and done frosh (Tatum) who plays below the rim, we have Harry who just isn't even close, we have Marques who has had injuries and seems to be trying to find his way, plus Jackson who really struggles to deliver on the road. My apologies for the vent but this year was supposed to be special. I'm still waiting.

But that you cannot play defense is beyond me. get in front of someone. It's all about pride, effort and desire. Get a stop one time and actually want to get a stop. That's a DNA thing and this team has yet to buy in. Sad.

I get that people vent after tough losses, but this is over the top. No one was "lied to" about anything. Things happen. Injuries set back players. Freshmen make mistakes and struggle on the road. The team is trying very hard, has had to overcome an unusual amount of bad luck and unwarranted media attention, and can still be an excellent team. They're very good as it is.

Here's what is vent-worthy: the team had a chance to put the game away and messed around too much. K said as much in his post game press conference. He said it shouldn't have come down to a last shot. (He also said that the players that are hurt are still figuring out how to play hurt). But I don't feel "lied to". Just frustrated, like any reasonable fan would be, and hoping a very young and beat up team learns from this.

[BlueDevilWildcat]

Just finished watching. You know, if hunger is at all a problem for this team, I highly recommend the previously discussed plan of resting Grayson and Amile.

You know who's hungry? Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson.
I didn't watch the video but did Coach say that the team isn't hungry enough? If so, it's a troubling mindset because it puts the onus on the players where I think much of the responsibility lies on the staff to adjust.

I remember several years ago where Coach said something to the effect that he loved teaching but was frustrated that there was no one he could learn from. I'll be honest, that kind of seems like his mindset and it's pretty myopic.

[dukelifer]

I also think this would be a good time to rest up GA. The conference title is out of reach. And we don't stand any better chance at Miami with a hobbled Allen than without him. I think we take another L in Coral Gables anyway. Would love to see us reasonably healthy for a big win in the last home game followed by hopefully a decent showing at the cheats. I think going 1-3 in our last 4 is a reasonable expectation.

Probably so- but with a healthy team- Duke can play with anyone. But injuries have been the story of this year. Got to be lucky sometimes.

[Troublemaker]

I didn't watch the video but did Coach say that the team isn't hungry enough? If so, it's a troubling mindset because it puts the onus on the players where I think much of the responsibility lies on the staff to adjust.

I remember several years ago where Coach said something to the effect that he loved teaching but was frustrated that there was no one he could learn from. I'll be honest, that kind of seems like his mindset and it's pretty myopic.

Don't comment on stuff you haven't watched.

Why are you even on this forum? You've been banned twice under two previous usernames.

I was going to let it slide but you're so, so very annoying.

Now I'm going to have to PM the mods with what I know. All you had to do was not be so obnoxious.

[AFL]

I also think this would be a good time to rest up GA. The conference title is out of reach. And we don't stand any better chance at Miami with a hobbled Allen than without him. I think we take another L in Coral Gables anyway. Would love to see us reasonably healthy for a big win in the last home game followed by hopefully a decent showing at the cheats. I think going 1-3 in our last 4 is a reasonable expectation.

I never thought I'd live to see the day where going 1-3 in our last 4 games would be a "reasonable expectation." My how times have changed!

[Kfanarmy]

Just finished watching. You know, if hunger is at all a problem for this team, I highly recommend the previously discussed plan of resting Grayson and Amile.

You know who's hungry? Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson.

I keep wondering about Vrank...limited minutes, respectable stats, big who could patrol the paint and can score and rebound. IDK but sometimes think he might be the best inside presence Duke has..

[BlueDevilWildcat]

Don't comment on stuff you haven't watched.

Why are you even on this forum? You've been banned twice under two previous usernames.

I was going to let it slide but you're so, so very annoying.

Now I'm going to have to PM the mods with what I know. All you had to do was not be so obnoxious.If you take my comment as obnoxious, the problem, my friend, is with you.

[duke4ever19]

In the pre-game thread, duke4ever19 posted a very good video "The Syracuse 2-3 zone:What Works and What Doesn't. One point of emphasis in the vfideo is the damage that can be done to the Zone by passing to the corner. Evidently Duke never got the memo.

Thanks for the nod.

I watched about 30-40 minutes of 2-3 zone vids on youtube prepping myself to better analyze this game and it was pretty enlightening. Tatum alone is a 2-3 zone destroyer (and did just that many times tonight).

Syracuse actually didn't play their zone well (consistently) tonight, we just couldn't exploit their errors (although those backdoor feeds to Jefferson were absolutely textbook zone killers). That was the biggest disappointment to me. We lost to shoddy edition of the 2-3 zone.

[Atlanta Duke]

I remember several years ago where Coach said something to the effect that he loved teaching but was frustrated that there was no one he could learn from. I'll be honest, that kind of seems like his mindset and it's pretty myopic.

Coach K said this in a 2016 interview regarding his experience in coaching the Olympics teams, which does not seem myopic.

“I’ve learned more in the last 11 years doing this than I ever learned in the 30 years previous about the game, people and preparation by being in this environment,” Krzyzewski said.

He had gotten to a point in his coaching career where he didn’t go to coaching clinics to learn, he went to deliver the keynote seminar. But surrounded by great players and great coaches, Krzyzewski became a better coach for the U.S. and for Duke.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/rio-2016/2016/08/18/mike-krzyzewski-usa-basketball-coach-gold-medals-beijing-london-rio/88967388/

[FerryFor50]

Just finished watching. You know, if hunger is at all a problem for this team, I highly recommend the previously discussed plan of resting Grayson and Amile.

You know who's hungry? Marques Bolden, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson.

I took it as "Cuse was hungrier because they were desperate."

He also mentioned injuries and guys playing not to get hurt. Psychology, human nature.

Sounds like he has some coaching to do. :)

[Duke76]

Thanks for the nod.

I watched about 30-40 minutes of 2-3 zone vids on youtube prepping myself to better analyze this game and it was pretty enlightening. Tatum alone is a 2-3 zone destroyer (and did just that many times tonight).

Syracuse actually didn't play their zone well (consistently) tonight, we just couldn't exploit their errors (although those backdoor feeds to Jefferson were absolutely textbook zone killers). That was the biggest disappointment to me. We lost to shoddy edition of the 2-3 zone.

to me on the last offensive possession tatum should have flashed to the foul line at the 15 second mark with about 10 seconds in the time clock....it had worked a number of times where tatum dumped it low or made a play....also kills me when luke was at the foul line with the ball and wouldn't shoot it..especially in 1st half...just not accustomed to shooting the ball stationary so to speak at the foul line....he just should not have been faking and looking to pass when he was so wide open...he missed a few shots early on and think it got in his head...

but i really thought we looked quick tonight...full of energy...running the break and we just couldn't convert on the breaks and as K said the "basketball gods didn't like the way we play so he wasn't surprised we lost"

[jv001]

Typical Duke game at the Dome. Too many sloppy plays on fast break opportunities and another putrid attempt in guarding the PNR. I just don't understand why we automatically switch when it's not necessary. I thought we might have gone to our full court trapping zone to get the ball out of their very quick point guard's hands. It seemed he got a running start against Grayson and Frank. I don't think Billy Sky King could guard some one with a running start. We are fortunate to have won 7 games in a row with Grayson and Matt not hitting shots they would normally make. We should have won this game but for us to give up so many points in the 2nd half, I guess we didn't deserve it. As for Grayson, I really believe he should sit out the rest of the regular season and get well for the ACCT and NCAAT. If he's not ready by the ACCT, sit him for those games as well. It seems pretty evident he's hurting and if you can't tell it by watching him, just listen to what Coach K says. He and Amile are both hurting, but it's not affecting Amile like it is Grayson. I think Harry has gotten better and we should use him more. If Grayson does sit, I hope we go with a big lineup and get the ball down low. Good things happen when use the kick out to open 3 point shooters. I'm hoping Coach K has some things up his sleeve for the next game and I'm not talking about his two arms. GoDuke!

[Faison1]

I'm not sure what all the negativity is about. Didn't everyone know @Syracuse was going to be a tough out? Is Duke not allowed to lose ballgames anymore?

Sure, it's disappointing, but barring a few unfortunate decisions, I thought it was an extremely high quality game. Certainly better than the snooze-fest at Chapel Hill.

Yes, there is major room for improvement, but I saw some really good stuff from Harry. If we go far, I predict he will have a major role in it. The team seems to flow well when he's on the floor, especially defensively.

Who knows what Coach comes up with, but don't you think he's working hard to adjust???

[sagegrouse]

I didn't watch the video but did Coach say that the team isn't hungry enough? If so, it's a troubling mindset because it puts the onus on the players where I think much of the responsibility lies on the staff to adjust.

I remember several years ago where Coach said something to the effect that he loved teaching but was frustrated that there was no one he could learn from. I'll be honest, that kind of seems like his mindset and it's pretty myopic.

Are you finished trolling yet?

[jipops]

I know this has zero chance of this happening, but I would be thrilled if K pulled GA and Amile for the last 3 games. Go ahead and load up Harry, Marquis, Frank, and maybe Vrank or Chase on some minutes giving them work. The worst is we miss out on the double bye. But I think the risk is worth it to have a fully functioning, hungry, and healthy team going into the post season. If all our perimeter guys collectively aren't able to provide some functional D on the perimeter then we're out by the first weekend. If we can't get one of Giles or Bolden to become significant factors on the floor then sweet 16 is likely the ceiling.

It's been an odd season for this team and it has never come close to being at the level the media dreamed it would be, and likely never will. But I would like to see us go into the post season as healthy and integrated as possible.

[pfrduke]

53 points in 32 second half possessions for Syracuse - 1.66 points per possession. We got 7 - that's right, 7 - defensive stops in the entire second half, and only 2 in the last 7 minutes. Meaning Syracuse converted 3.5 times for every stop we got. Oof.

As others have pointed out, fouls were a real problem. 8 of their scoring possessions came exclusively via free throws. Exclude those and it's still bad - 17 scoring possessions against 7 stops, but it's not the disaster of letting them score better than 3 out of every 4 times they came down the court.

[jbay201]

Typical Duke game at the Dome. Too many sloppy plays on fast break opportunities and another putrid attempt in guarding the PNR. I just don't understand why we automatically switch when it's not necessary. I thought we might have gone to our full court trapping zone to get the ball out of their very quick point guard's hands. It seemed he got a running start against Grayson and Frank. I don't think Billy Sky King could guard some one with a running start. We are fortunate to have won 7 games in a row with Grayson and Matt not hitting shots they would normally make. We should have won this game but for us to give up so many points in the 2nd half, I guess we didn't deserve it. As for Grayson, I really believe he should sit out the rest of the regular season and get well for the ACCT and NCAAT. If he's not ready by the ACCT, sit him for those games as well. It seems pretty evident he's hurting and if you can't tell it by watching him, just listen to what Coach K says. He and Amile are both hurting, but it's not affecting Amile like it is Grayson. I think Harry has gotten better and we should use him more. If Grayson does sit, I hope we go with a big lineup and get the ball down low. Good things happen when use the kick out to open 3 point shooters. I'm hoping Coach K has some things up his sleeve for the next game and I'm not talking about his two arms. GoDuke!

i agree we should rest grayson until ACCT and even NCAAT if we need to! Having him healthy is the most important thing for this team and a chance at the championship. With him resting, we get frank jackson gets more time at PG which will help him get become a better facilitator. Bolden needs to play more and we need to get him a few touches in the post a game.

[gam7]

Postgame presser. The Cuse site beat GoDuke in getting the vids up:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1B0j29gMaM

This closed captioning is absolutely amazing. This is how Sauce Castillo happens.

[MrPoon]

I think it was Phil Parcells who said the desperate team usually wins. Clearly SY was the desperate team.

Others pay better attention then I do so I'll get the numbers wrong but at one point SY in the second half had three more fouls than we did. Then we went on a fouling spree and I think SY hit the bonus first (not refs, our fault). Plus the overall sloppiness was a surprise. Maybe the zone forced some of that but still surprising.

Jefferson a good defender, Jones clearly is fantastic, GA has shown the ability to pressure the ball, Tatum length and athleticism that should make for a solid defender. Even Giles and Bolden have the tools physically the be intimidating defenders. And yet... every game our competition seems to have a great shooting night. Many games I think, "well ________ had just an out of body shooting night, they will never do that again." Often a decent player has a career or at least season high against us. SY just tied their season high for a half which was against Eastern Michigan.

I know, I know we can't practice, etc. And it is very easy to over react to a loss that still required a very lucky shot. We have been playing these game so close for so long and winning, that a bad bank type shot seemed almost inevitable. But when you play D like this against okay teams (SY, Wake, Clemson, etc.) then you are playing a very risky dance in a single elimination tournament where you face really good teams. This offense is so good we could go on a great run. This D is so ... odd, that a first weekend exit with tired legs where jump shots don't fall and an upset minded team has some unexpected player, yet again, having a career best scoring nigh; also wouldn't shock me.

Smarter people on the board please help me. The switching doesn't make sense to me. The slow transition D seems a constant problem (we just hit enough shots that it doesn't look worse). The pieces appear good but the team result (even in wins) seems to be concerning. We struggle against pick and rolls and we struggle against aggressive perimeter drives. Statistically we are good against the 3pt line but when we give up layups and lots of fouls shots, does that matter? We've got great coaching but the improvements are so slow and so disjointed and some of these problems feel like its the system we are choosing to play.

I keep saying there is time, there is time, keep breathing, but we have three regular season games left, two on the road, two ranked teams. The compressed ACC tournament schedule (especially if we don't have the top 4 seed) looks to be a real problem if we play six in the second half of games and are trying to help Jefferson and GA rest and we have an offese built around jumpers. Then its on to March. The razor edge scares me. Probably over reacting but the pieces of this team appear so beautiful, the the entire picture seems so unclear to me. I really worry about looking back in say 8 years at all these great NBA players and trying to understand all that could have been. But there is still time... GO DUKE!!!!! :)

[Kedsy]

It's hard to give up 53 points in one half to a team that is offensively challenged.

I'm not saying our second half D was acceptable, but Syracuse's offense is #31 in the country (according to Pomeroy). That's nowhere near "offensively challenged."


The reality is that this team is just not very good...

We just came off a 7-game winning streak against a tough schedule. I think the "reality" has more to do with people who make comments like yours than anything regarding the team.


It's maddening to have this much talent and still wind up losing just as many games as a very depleted Duke team did a year ago.

You have us losing 5 more games this season? If not, your statement makes no sense. If so, how'd you like to place a wager?


It's just frustrating to have been lied to that this team was going to be so special...

This just makes me laugh.


The conference title is out of reach.

We're tied for 2nd, 2 games behind UNC, and we play them in the last game. Before they play Duke, UNC has two road games against one really good opponent (Virginia) and another (Pitt) that at home has beaten two other top 20 teams by double-figures. An outright conference title will be difficult, but to share the title? Hardly out of reach.


I think going 1-3 in our last 4 is a reasonable expectation.

Reasonable? You keep using that word; I do not think it means what you think it means.

[kAzE]

100% agree with everyone saying Grayson needs rest . . .

If Grayson plays even a mediocre Grayson game instead of (in my opinion) the worst game of his career, we win that game by 15. He was handling the ball most of those bungled fast break chances in the first half, and he missed some really wide open 3 pointers that a healthy Grayson would knock down in his sleep.

I don't even recognize the player wearing number 3 right now. He's never been like this. It has to be an injury.

On the positive side, it looks like Jayson is the new best player on the team. Yep, that's right. Kennard is still the best shooter and offensive player, but Jayson is now the 2nd best offensive player, best rebounder, the 2nd best passer, and maybe 3rd best defensive player. He's totally ridiculous, and we're gonna be awesome if Amile and Grayson get back being their normal selves at some point while there are still games left to play.

[AFL]

I'm not sure what all the negativity is about. Didn't everyone know @Syracuse was going to be a tough out? Is Duke not allowed to lose ballgames anymore?

Sure, it's disappointing, but barring a few unfortunate decisions, I thought it was an extremely high quality game. Certainly better than the snooze-fest at Chapel Hill.

Yes, there is major room for improvement, but I saw some really good stuff from Harry. If we go far, I predict he will have a major role in it. The team seems to flow well when he's on the floor, especially defensively.

Who knows what Coach comes up with, but don't you think he's working hard to adjust???

Actually, I saw very little adjustments tonight, if any at all. We only played 7 guys, with two playing hurt. We took 33 three-point shots instead of attacking the zone. We let a mediocre team score 53 second half points. I saw very little to be excited about.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Duke shot 33 3's, many I'd consider poor shot selection, even as good of shooters as they are. That's too one dimensional of an offense against good teams to win consistently, and I think Syracuse is a good team.

Late game, I thought Duke actually took control of the game with several good post entries to Amile, but then, for some reason, they stopped looking to go inside and kept taking bad deep shots, or forced contested ones, letting 'Cuse back in it.

No shot was worse than that top of the key, deep 3 early in the shot clock, up by two with just a couple of minutes to go by Grayson. We can admire his killer instinct, it looked like he wanted to put the game away right there, bury that and be up five, rip their heart out...but a smarter play would have been settle it down and eat some clock, get a better shot. Instead he missed, 'Cuse rebounds and comes down to tie it up.

Can't let that lack of shot selection discipline happen with the home court emotion of a big game...teams get confident and stuff happens, like last shot game winners.

[ChillinDuke]

Man people really freak out around here after losses.

We didn't play particularly well. I wasn't impressed with the offense at times - I thought the sharpest we looked was out the gates. As others have noted the 2nd half defense was particularly terrible. Our fast break blunders in the first half were poor. Our late game execution was highly questionable. And the fouls at times were really confounding, likely contributing to the poor defense.

Plus, Syracuse wasn't safely in the Tourney yet. They needed this. And we were on the road in, what I'm told, is an odd venue for basketball, even if a legendary arena.

Yet there we were watching essentially a prayer bank in to lose the game.

Color me impressed that this team has the staying power to have a chance to win despite all that situational adversity. It might show up as an L in the loss column, and it might pain me (and many of us) tonight and tomorrow, but it's not all doom and gloom.

We have horses on this team. And we can run.

- Chillin

[CoachJ10]

Duke shot 33 3's, many I'd consider poor shot selection, even as good of shooters as they are. That's too one dimensional of an offense against good teams to win consistently, and I think Syracuse is a good team.

Late game, I thought Duke actually took control of the game with several good post entries to Amile, but then, for some reason, they stopped looking to go inside and kept taking bad deep shots, or forced contested ones, letting 'Cuse back in it.

No shot was worse than that top of the key, deep 3 early in the shot clock, up by two with just a couple of minutes to go by Grayson. We can admire his killer instinct, it looked like he wanted to put the game away right there, bury that and be up five, rip their heart out...but a smarter play would have been settle it down and eat some clock, get a better shot. Instead he missed, 'Cuse rebounds and comes down to tie it up.

Can't let that lack of shot selection discipline happen with the home court emotion of a big game...teams get confident and stuff happens, like last shot game winners.

Actually the majority Duke's 3 pt attempts were pretty good looks. Syracuse hit 6/11 from 3 pt land on a lot of tough shots. We played relatively smart against the zone, Luke and Jayson did a great job of popping into the middle and creating shots or good looks. It was our sloppiness on breaks and not putting them away when we should have that did us in tonight. And (as others have pointed out) Syracuse living on the FT line in the 2nd half (on some very questionable calls) and hitting some "we only make these clutch shots against Duke" shots.

Playing tough teams on the road in the ACC is not an easy task this season. Not that UNC's schedule gave them any of those opportunities. How fortunate...

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Actually the majority Duke's 3 pt attempts were pretty good looks. Syracuse hit 6/11 from 3 pt land on a lot of tough shots. We played relatively smart against the zone, Luke and Jayson did a great job of popping into the middle and creating shots or good looks. It was our sloppiness on breaks and not putting them away when we should have that did us in tonight. And (as others have pointed out) Syracuse living on the FT line in the 2nd half (on some very questionable calls) and hitting some "we only make these clutch shots against Duke" shots.

Playing tough teams on the road in the ACC is not an easy task this season. Not that UNC's schedule gave them any of those opportunities. How fortunate...

As good as Duke's shooters are, if their shot selection was good, I think you could expect them to make more than 10 of 33.

UNC has played one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country. To insinuate they are somehow not deserving of their record and position as the best team in the conference at this point is simply sour grapes.

[uh_no]

53 points in 32 second half possessions for Syracuse - 1.66 points per possession. We got 7 - that's right, 7 - defensive stops in the entire second half, and only 2 in the last 7 minutes. Meaning Syracuse converted 3.5 times for every stop we got. Oof.

As others have pointed out, fouls were a real problem. 8 of their scoring possessions came exclusively via free throws. Exclude those and it's still bad - 17 scoring possessions against 7 stops, but it's not the disaster of letting them score better than 3 out of every 4 times they came down the court.

thanks for doing the math.

it's disappointing that we can't put together a scheme that works better than what we're seeing. syracuse are a decent offense, but they aren't world beaters....we made them look like world beaters.

the fouls didn't help. grayson and luke need to be smarter out there. I fear, though, we're going to ride these switches to an early exit.

[gofurman]

Relax. Breathe. Next play.

We will learn. Lots of good. Some opportunities for improvement.

It ain't over!

Agreed. Just one game. Lots of hot shootin' by the Cuse. Still, can't give up 50+ points in a half - same two issues. Defense. Esp PNR D. And HEALTH - Allen hasn't been the same for a few games since rolling his ankle - I know it's against Ks nature to sit a guy but you have to think about it. More Allen than Amile
%^*. At least there is a week before the ACCT and the NCAAT. And IF we get Greenville it's a Friday Sunday set. Extra day of rest as not a Thursday - Saturday set.

[BandAlum83]

OMG. Really?

Please don't feed, especially the ones who sign up just to post crap. Just flame them, move on, and wait for the mods to delete the post.

[wavedukefan70s]

Played mediocre D.offense was bad.
Should have won.some players need a break.we can be ok by ncaa time.
Coach will have us ready as we can be.no worries at all.😆

[BandAlum83]

As good as Duke's shooters are, if their shot selection was good, I think you could expect them to make more than 10 of 33.

UNC has played one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country. To insinuate they are somehow not deserving of their record and position as the best team in the conference at this point is simply sour grapes.

Wheat, there is no insinuation, only fact. Don't take offense.

I'm sure the poster wasn't talking about UNC's overall schedule, but rather the ACC schedule. There has been much discussed on the boards here about how duke has to play 6 of the top 7 ACC teams on the road, while UNC only has to play 2 on the road. (or some similar stat)

It's the unbalanced schedule, and Duke will have the benefit of such scheduling next year (assuming top tier teams stay at the top, and lower tier stay at the bottom.

[g-money]

The problem with playing Amile and Harry simultaneously is that neither of them can reliably hit a shot outside of 15 feet. It's tough to run an efficient offense with three attacking guards and two bigs clogging up the middle.

I dunno, maybe K can watch some tape on the Memphis Grizzlies and figure out how they make it work with Gasol and Randolph (I suspect having Mike Conley as the orchestrator makes a bit of a difference :) ).

It seems like getting Harry some more PT would be a good idea, even if at Amile's expense.

Unfortunately, from what I've see of Marques, he's just too much of a liability on defense at this point to be out there for significant minutes. I'd love to see him play another year under K and watch his D improve tremendously.

I expect Jackson will bounce back in a big way after this one.

/end collection of random post-game thoughts/

[dukelifer]

As good as Duke's shooters are, if their shot selection was good, I think you could expect them to make more than 10 of 33.

UNC has played one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country. To insinuate they are somehow not deserving of their record and position as the best team in the conference at this point is simply sour grapes.

UNC has been the most consistent team and Jackson has emerged as a star. They are a likely Final Four team. That said they have been able to play a good number of their tough games at home. That certainly helps.

[Neals384]

C'mon, the zone attack was great (except in the clutch). The problem was the defense.

We even used Luke in the middle, which was a great idea. Typically you need a little bit more size in there to receive the entry but because Cuse doesn't have its usual length (Gillon is so short), we got away with using Luke and he was brilliant orchestrating from the high post.

Can't disagree about the defense, but let me elaborate on the offense. Many half-court possessions consisted of passes between guys at the top of the circle, and yes, to the high post. The result was many contested 3's, and 10 of 33 made. If you wish to pres your case further, please watch the video on how to attack the Syracuse 2-3, than perhaps we can have an intelligent discussion.

[NashvilleDevil]

Like others have said those missed points on the 6-7 fast break opportunities hurt. Syracuse seemed to live at the free throw line in the 2nd half. At one point they had scored 12 of 16 points from the line. I am hoping this is a blip and things get figured out for the last two regular season games. Duke is in the tourney now they are just playing for seeding, I would rest Grayson against Miami and see what Frank can do.

[SkyBrickey]

I think Coach is going with the Iron 5 + 2 (Jackson, Giles) because he wants that continuity and flow on offense - and to a lesser degree on defense.

But what we give up, from my observations, is that guys have to calibrate on defense so that they 1) don't foul out and 2) have some gas in the tank at the end of games. Or in some cases maybe they don't calibrate and are just gassed at the end.

I know Coach has said over the years something to the effect of, "these are 20 year-old kids who love basketball - they don't get tired". But I miss the old days of our attacking man-to-man defense where we completely take the other team out of their offensive rhythm and feed on fast break turnovers (we actually did get a little glimpse of that in the first half last night - we just didn't finish the breaks).

I got swept up in the preseason hype of all the depth and was dreaming of a team with Jones, Jackson, Bolden and Jeter coming off the bench for 15-20 minutes a game and us playing aggressive, disruptive man-to-man for 40 minutes a game. Injuries have been a big issue. And freshmen just take longer to get it on defense. But I miss those glory days of Duke defense where it was a weapon feared by all...

[Wheat/"/"/"]

UNC has been the most consistent team and Jackson has emerged as a star. They are a likely Final Four team. That said they have been able to play a good number of their tough games at home. That certainly helps.

Yea, but every year is different and it all seems to balance out over time. Focusing on it is a little like worrying about the refs, you have no control of it and it doesn't matter, you've still gotta adjust and play the games.

[Duke76]

As good as Duke's shooters are, if their shot selection was good, I think you could expect them to make more than 10 of 33.

UNC has played one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country. To insinuate they are somehow not deserving of their record and position as the best team in the conference at this point is simply sour grapes.

to back up that statement Wheat, would you compare they home and away schedule of the upper tier ACC teams they have played to Duke's schedule home and away.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I really wasn't furious about the loss last night. If Cuse doesn't hit 2 lucky bank shots at the end, it's just another close ACC win for Duke. My biggest concern was the inability to stop dribble penetration. There's nothing we can do about guys hitting long, contested shots, and Cuse did plenty of that. But we kept getting beat off the dribble again and again. We've got to figure it out, as we know the first thing the selection committee will do is match us up against a team with quick dribble-drive guards. We've either got to figure out how to stay in front, or figure out how to help the man who constantly gets beat. The other obvious problem last night was Grayson Allen's play. I love Grayson and always will, but I don't get it. I don't mind playing through injuries if that's what all relevant parties decide is best. But lets have the healthy players taking the shots, and the unhealthy players doing what they're capable of doing.

[GoB]

I'm not a doom and gloom kind of guy. Sure it's disappointing to lose a game they could have / should have won but away games in the ACC against a talented team (yes, Syracuse had a tough start to their year but they are solidly Top 50 in the country) in a notoriously difficult place to play against a team that needed the game more than we did - it's not unreasonable that we let one slip. KP had Duke as 62% likely to win the game; Vegas had them as 3 1/2 point favourites. Guess what? Despite all the problems mentioned in the more panicky posts, despite the poor shooting and poor 2H defence, they were right there.

What worries me more is the problems the remain consistent game-after-game whether they are winning or during the occasional loss. For me the most glaring problem Duke has shown is that unlike traditional Duke teams we are losing the battle of fouls. Over the previous 6 seasons of conference play (the only ones that http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2017.html segregates conference stats from overall) Duke has shot more free throws than its ACC opponent every year and 317 more times in total (53 times more per season or 3 more per game). Total fouls have been a bit closer (134 times in 6 years = 22 fewer per year or 1.3 fewer per game) and even had a season (2014) when Duke out-fouled the opposition.

But this year Duke has out-fouled their ACC opponents 296-283 and taken but a single extra FT (296-295) despite attempting 30 more FT in the 1st 6 games of conference play. Duke has been to the line less than their opponent in 8 of the last 9 games. Part of that is an even greater reliance on outside shooting than in previous years, but the other part is that Duke is on pace to foul their ACC opponents 355 times or almost 20 pf/gm - the most per game this decade (and probably much longer). For the whole season Duke has committed 1.3 fewer PF/gm than their opponents, on pace to being the 2nd worst mark since 1996 (in 2014 they actually out-fouled the opposition!)

The silver lining in all this - and it's a big one - is that by percentage this is the best FT shooting team Duke has had since 1990 (my junior year)! Overall Duke is shooting .755 from the stripe vs opponents' mark of .690 (it was .764 vs .695 in 1990) so that makes up for a good bit of the problem.

Comparing the two teams (since you asked), this year's 3 best starters (Tatum .870, Kennard .849 and Allen .813) shoot at a better rate than 1990's (Laettner .836, Ph Henderson .836 and Abdelnaby(!) .775) but the other two starters (Jones .667 and Jefferson .623) lag their counterparts (Hurley .769 and Brickey .672) by a substantial margin and the 1990 bench outshot 2017's .704 to .637. Not to mention that as the top shooter, Laettner, even as a sophomore, shot a ton of FTs (225-269).

[Saratoga2]

Jefferson a good defender, Jones clearly is fantastic, GA has shown the ability to pressure the ball, Tatum length and athleticism that should make for a solid defender. Even Giles and Bolden have the tools physically the be intimidating defenders. And yet... every game our competition seems to have a great shooting night. Many games I think, "well ________ had just an out of body shooting night, they will never do that again." Often a decent player has a career or at least season high against us. SY just tied their season high for a half which was against Eastern Michigan.
:)

I thought Giles provided solid defense at the back line and is a good rebounder. He also can catch and score down low, so should get additional burn in games. Amile seemed off in the first half, not scoring when with the ball wide open and under the basket. Amile came back from that in a determined fashion in the second half and nearly willed us to the win.

Neither Grayson nor Frank played good defense last night and seemed to have difficulty with the zone. Grayson doesn't look at all like himself, and perhaps the injury has gotten into his head as well, since is decision making seemed off last night as well. With the defensive short comings both GA and FJ didn't help much so we might have found a better solution toward the end. We truly miss a quick ball handler/PG in the tight situations. We are going to have to live without that for the rest of the year.

I think the myth of Luke not being a good defender has been overstated in the past on this site. I see Luke as being in front of his man, moving his feet with his hands in a good guarding position. He is one of the better rebounders on the team and if anything tried too hard last night and was called for questionable fouls. His weaker area is lateral quickness but the rest is very solid.

This team still has very solid capabilities with Amile, Jayson, Luke, Matt and Harry all capable of contributing. Frank has good days as well and is a great athlete. Grayson is not himself and needs to recover for us to regain our top 10 status.

[Troublemaker]

Can't disagree about the defense, but let me elaborate on the offense. Many half-court possessions consisted of passes between guys at the top of the circle, and yes, to the high post. The result was many contested 3's, and 10 of 33 made. If you wish to pres your case further, please watch the video on how to attack the Syracuse 2-3, than perhaps we can have an intelligent discussion.

I have bookmarked the video for later watching since it comes so highly reviewed by posters like you that I respect.

However, the stats speak for themselves. Duke had 118 offensive efficiency against Cuse despite blowing several fast breaks that would've put us into the 120s. Duke had 16 assists to only 8 turnovers (a very nice stat since Cuse's zone, even this year's lesser one, forces turnovers). We were able to attack them from all 3 levels - threes, mid to high post, and the baseline. And we achieved the high efficiency without shooting well from three.

All in all, I call that a good day against the zone. Regardless of whether we used the exact tactics mentioned in that video.

I also think every coach has his only idea of how to attack zone, and it's the results that matter. For example, I've seen UVA have a lot of success setting high-ball screens against the zone and attacking with the drive. A lot of people would say that's a bad idea against zone, but they make it work.

[bluedev_92]

Yea, but every year is different and it all seems to balance out over time. Focusing on it is a little like worrying about the refs, you have no control of it and it doesn't matter, you've still gotta adjust and play the games.

my thought in this is that Carolina may well have a couple more losses if they faced the same away schedule as Duke. Doesn't mean their not good, but it likely means they may not be ranked quite as high as they are now if they faced the same ACC schedule... Seeding does matter, so in that sense it's relevant & a positive twist for the heels.

[kmspeaks]

Duke shot 33 3's, many I'd consider poor shot selection, even as good of shooters as they are. That's too one dimensional of an offense against good teams to win consistently, and I think Syracuse is a good team.

Late game, I thought Duke actually took control of the game with several good post entries to Amile, but then, for some reason, they stopped looking to go inside and kept taking bad deep shots, or forced contested ones, letting 'Cuse back in it.

No shot was worse than that top of the key, deep 3 early in the shot clock, up by two with just a couple of minutes to go by Grayson. We can admire his killer instinct, it looked like he wanted to put the game away right there, bury that and be up five, rip their heart out...but a smarter play would have been settle it down and eat some clock, get a better shot. Instead he missed, 'Cuse rebounds and comes down to tie it up.

Can't let that lack of shot selection discipline happen with the home court emotion of a big game...teams get confident and stuff happens, like last shot game winners.


Actually the majority Duke's 3 pt attempts were pretty good looks. Syracuse hit 6/11 from 3 pt land on a lot of tough shots. We played relatively smart against the zone, Luke and Jayson did a great job of popping into the middle and creating shots or good looks. It was our sloppiness on breaks and not putting them away when we should have that did us in tonight. And (as others have pointed out) Syracuse living on the FT line in the 2nd half (on some very questionable calls) and hitting some "we only make these clutch shots against Duke" shots.

Playing tough teams on the road in the ACC is not an easy task this season. Not that UNC's schedule gave them any of those opportunities. How fortunate...

I think you're both right. There were plenty of times where Duke worked the ball inside and then got kick-outs or made some good skip passes for good looks at 3. There were also times when guys randomly decided to throw up contested, deep 3's without an expiring shot clock requiring them to do so. It wasn't just Grayson either, Matt and Luke were guilty as well. Take one less dumb shot or make one more of the good looks and Duke wins, but that's life in the ACC - almost everyone is good enough to make you pay for your mistakes.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

my thought in this is that Carolina may well have a couple more losses if they faced the same away schedule as Duke. Doesn't mean their not good, but it likely means they may not be ranked quite as high as they are now if they faced the same ACC schedule... Seeding does matter, so in that sense it's relevant & a positive twist for the heels.
You know what... all this just means that kerlina is flying directly in everyone's radar. They may well earn a #1 seed and get to deal with all the expectations that come with it -- which will just make the disappointment even greater for their fans when their team is exposed as the good but not great team that they are and lose in the tourney(ies) once they have to perform at a consistently high level away from the protective environment of their quiet little dome.

[rsvman]

You know what... all this just means that kerlina is flying directly in everyone's radar. They may well earn a #1 seed and get to deal with all the expectations that come with it -- which will just make the disappointment even greater for their fans when their team is exposed as the good but not great team that they are and lose in the tourney(ies) once they have to perform at a consistently high level away from the protective environment of their quiet little dome.

I wouldn't count on it. To my eye they are improving quite a bit and seriously look like a formidable contender at this point I the season, as much as I hate to say it.

[Troublemaker]

I'm not a doom and gloom kind of guy. Sure it's disappointing to lose a game they could have / should have won but away games in the ACC against a talented team (yes, Syracuse had a tough start to their year but they are solidly Top 50 in the country) in a notoriously difficult place to play against a team that needed the game more than we did - it's not unreasonable that we let one slip. KP had Duke as 62% likely to win the game; Vegas had them as 3 1/2 point favourites. Guess what? Despite all the problems mentioned in the more panicky posts, despite the poor shooting and poor 2H defence, they were right there.

What worries me more is the problems the remain consistent game-after-game whether they are winning or during the occasional loss. For me the most glaring problem Duke has shown is that unlike traditional Duke teams we are losing the battle of fouls. Over the previous 6 seasons of conference play (the only ones that http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2017.html segregates conference stats from overall) Duke has shot more free throws than its ACC opponent every year and 317 more times in total (53 times more per season or 3 more per game). Total fouls have been a bit closer (134 times in 6 years = 22 fewer per year or 1.3 fewer per game) and even had a season (2014) when Duke out-fouled the opposition.

But this year Duke has out-fouled their ACC opponents 296-283 and taken but a single extra FT (296-295) despite attempting 30 more FT in the 1st 6 games of conference play. Duke has been to the line less than their opponent in 8 of the last 9 games. Part of that is an even greater reliance on outside shooting than in previous years, but the other part is that Duke is on pace to foul their ACC opponents 355 times or almost 20 pf/gm - the most per game this decade (and probably much longer). For the whole season Duke has committed 1.3 fewer PF/gm than their opponents, on pace to being the 2nd worst mark since 1996 (in 2014 they actually out-fouled the opposition!)

The silver lining in all this - and it's a big one - is that by percentage this is the best FT shooting team Duke has had since 1990 (my junior year)! Overall Duke is shooting .755 from the stripe vs opponents' mark of .690 (it was .764 vs .695 in 1990) so that makes up for a good bit of the problem.

Comparing the two teams (since you asked), this year's 3 best starters (Tatum .870, Kennard .849 and Allen .813) shoot at a better rate than 1990's (Laettner .836, Ph Henderson .836 and Abdelnaby(!) .775) but the other two starters (Jones .667 and Jefferson .623) lag their counterparts (Hurley .769 and Brickey .672) by a substantial margin and the 1990 bench outshot 2017's .704 to .637. Not to mention that as the top shooter, Laettner, even as a sophomore, shot a ton of FTs (225-269).

This is an excellent overall point, imo. (Not sure we actually rely on the three more than previous teams, however).

The thesis of Duke basketball could be summarized as follows: We will beat you because our 3s, 2s, and FTs will overcome your 2s only.

Unfortunately, this season Duke is fouling too much so the opponent gets both 2s and FTs. AND the 2s are coming too easily if the opponent can play spread pick and roll with 4 shooters on the court.

That's basically what we have to fix at this point in order to become a contender. Find a way to foul less and find a better way and/or execute better against spread pick and roll.

I am heartened though that Duke's turnover problems on offense have subsided quite a bit recently. Previously, I felt we were fighting a two-front war this season in which we had to improve both the offense and the defense. Right now, I think the offense is good enough to win big things. But the defense needs work in those two areas.

[Matches]

This team will go as far as the defense can take it. I guess that's a tautology but it seems especially true with this group. We can score on anyone, sometimes more efficiently than others but almost always at a level good enough to win. The defense is a major problem, esp. the inability to contain dribble penetration by quick PGs. Not sure there's a fix for that on this roster. Jones is an excellent defender but not a lock-down dribble-stopper. Jackson has the speed but is still green and inconsistent. A change of scheme such as to a zone causes other problems.

We can beat anyone but can lose to overall inferior teams if they have quick guards. That's something that's likely just going to be inherent to this team, and hopefully in the postseason we'll get lucky with matchups.

[GoB]

This is an excellent overall point, imo. (Not sure we actually rely on the three more than previous teams, however).

The thesis of Duke basketball could be summarized as follows: We will beat you because our 3s, 2s, and FTs will overcome your 2s only.

Unfortunately, this season Duke is fouling too much so the opponent gets both 2s and FTs. AND the 2s are coming too easily if the opponent can play spread pick and roll with 4 shooters on the court.

That's basically what we have to fix at this point in order to become a contender. Find a way to foul less and find a better way and/or execute better against spread pick and roll.

I am heartened though that Duke's turnover problems on offense have subsided quite a bit recently. Previously, I felt we were fighting a two-front war this season in which we had to improve both the offense and the defense. Right now, I think the offense is good enough to win big things. But the defense needs work in those two areas.

Just noticed that I over-sold this year's FT shooting pct slightly. It's actually the 4th best in the Krzyzewski Era behind 1990 (.764), 2006 (.761) and 2010 (.759). 2006, by the way, was JJ's worst year from the line at .863 but the Landlord shot a very respectable .744 and JJ and Shelden combined for 61.6% of the team's FTA's.

The difference between those other seasons and this one is the total number of trips to the line. In 1990 Duke attempted 30.6 FT/gm. This year they're on pace for the 5th fewest in K's rein with 21.5. Looking at what happened in the 4 seasons where they went to the line even less often doesn't reassure:



Year
FTA/g
FT%
Record
ACCT
NCCAT


81/82
20.7
.675
10-17
0-1
n/a


94/95
19.9
.670
13-18
1-1
n/a


95/96
20.4
.703
18-13
0-1
1R loss


06/07
21.2
.689
22-11
0-1
1R loss



Not the best collection of seasons to be clustered with...

[mgtr]

As Jack Benny used to say, "Well!"
We have won games on prayer threes (didn't Thornton hit two of them against Kansas in Hawaii?)
Onward and upward.

[Dukehky]

K is pissed. I actually think we beat the hell out of Miami on Saturday with or without Grayson. Which brings me to my next point... That kid neats a break. It's not just that he's hurt, Matt and Amile are hurt too, but it is affecting his game so much more than it is those two because he relies on his explosion and lift on jump shots, which he is just not getting.

He played really poorly last night. Terrible leading the break, bad shots with plenty of time left on the clock, shots that you can get any time against that zone. The last shot that he took allowed Gillon to go with a 2 for 1 and man did that pay off.

If he was just having a bad game and was healthy, then yeah, you leave him in because you never know when that extra gear can kick in. But when he's hurt, playing badly, and making dumb decisions as the point guard, you gotta get him out of there.

Not playing Bolden last night at all in the second half when Gillon got those layup lines... I just don't understand the reasoning here. Give him a minute, see how it goes, they're already storming back. This omission seemed stupid to me.

Giles looked great. If we play them in the ACC tournament we'll beat them. This loss wasn't disheartening in any way except that it is obvious that we are not going to use any kind of size moving forward.

[jv001]

K is pissed. I actually think we beat the hell out of Miami on Saturday with or without Grayson. Which brings me to my next point... That kid neats a break. It's not just that he's hurt, Matt and Amile are hurt too, but it is affecting his game so much more than it is those two because he relies on his explosion and lift on jump shots, which he is just not getting.
He played really poorly last night. Terrible leading the break, bad shots with plenty of time left on the clock, shots that you can get any time against that zone. The last shot that he took allowed Gillon to go with a 2 for 1 and man did that pay off.

If he was just having a bad game and was healthy, then yeah, you leave him in because you never know when that extra gear can kick in. But when he's hurt, playing badly, and making dumb decisions as the point guard, you gotta get him out of there.

Not playing Bolden last night at all in the second half when Gillon got those layup lines was stupid too.

Giles looked great. If we play them in the ACC tournament we'll beat them. This loss wasn't disheartening in any way except that it is obvious that we are not going to use any kind of size moving forward.

Very good post, especially on Grayson. If people can't see how much Grayson's injury is affecting his game, then they haven't watched him play for the last 3 years. As some have posted previously, Grayson's game is based on his explosiveness. When he's hitting those 3 pointers, he's getting lift on his shot. Now he's just rushing and shooting a push shot. The guy is playing as hard as he can under the circumstances. Plus, it's hurting his defense. With Grayson and Matt not shooting like they normally do, we have Jayson, Luke and Amile as primary scorers. That's not going to get it done come NCAAT. We cannot win games with our defense as in years past. The switching defense is giving up way too many 2's and last night Syracuse hit most of their 3s as well. I know this is just one loss after 7 wins in a row, but in some of those wins, the D was bad. I hope to see something different against Miami. GoDuke!

[bluedev_92]

I wouldn't count on it. To my eye they are improving quite a bit and seriously look like a formidable contender at this point I the season, as much as I hate to say it.

Since December, their away games are as follows:
Dec. 17th - Lost to Kentucky on neutral court
Dec. 31st - Lost to GT by 12
Jan. 3rd - Beat Clemson in OT
Jan 11th - Beat Wake by 6
Jan 21st - Beat BC by 8
Jan 28th - Lost to Miami by 5
Feb 9th - lost to good guys by 8
Feb 15th - easily beat a flailing NC State team

I agree that they are a good team, but I don't see them as a dominant team. There are no signature away wins & the games were generally close.

[rsvman]

OK, so this is probably really nit-picky and misses the larger points that have been covered well, but just a quick observation.......

After Kennard missed the shot on our final possession, and one of the Syracuse bigs grabbed the rebound, one of our bigs was right there next to him. However, as soon as the rebound was secured, our big immediately began to run down court. (I only noticed this when I saw the "highlights" later in the evening.)

Anyway, what I was wondering is whether it would've made more sense to attempt to stop the ball right there rather than backing off down the court. In other words, I think if our big would have stayed with their guy he might have been able to delay the outlet pass by a second or so. If that could've been accomplished, maybe we go to overtime because the odds of the shot going in would go way down if the shooter was at the half-court line.

Just a thought for future similar situations.

[jv001]

OK, so this is probably really nit-picky and misses the larger points that have been covered well, but just a quick observation....

After Kennard missed the shot on our final possession, and one of the Syracuse bigs grabbed the rebound, one of our bigs was right there next to him. However, as soon as the rebound was secured, our big immediately began to run down court. (I only noticed this when I saw the "highlights" later in the evening.)

Anyway, what I was wondering is whether it would've made more sense to attempt to stop the ball right there rather than backing off down the court. In other words, I think if our big would have stayed with their guy he might have been able to delay the outlet pass by a second or so. If that could've been accomplished, maybe we go to overtime because the odds of the shot going in would go way down if the shooter was at the half-court line.

Just a thought for future similar situations.

It took you watching the high lights to see what happened. I'm not picking on you when I say this :cool: but can you imagine how quick that play seemed to our guy. I'm sure getting back on defense has been drilled into the teams mind because of how much it has hurt us this season. I bet that's the first thing our guy thought about, not that I'm a mind reader or anything. One thing I questioned last night was why all of sudden did we stop trying to get the ball to Amile in the low post? He was waving his arms that he was open and it was working better than any other play. GoDuke!

[UNCfan]

You know what... all this just means that kerlina is flying directly in everyone's radar. They may well earn a #1 seed and get to deal with all the expectations that come with it -- which will just make the disappointment even greater for their fans when their team is exposed as the good but not great team that they are and lose in the tourney(ies) once they have to perform at a consistently high level away from the protective environment of their quiet little dome.

Smith Center has been very loud this year, especially for the UVA and UL games. I imagine it will be out of control when Duke comes to town.

[Monmouth77]

Since December, their away games are as follows:
Dec. 17th - Lost to Kentucky on neutral court
Dec. 31st - Lost to GT by 12
Jan. 3rd - Beat Clemson in OT
Jan 11th - Beat Wake by 6
Jan 21st - Beat BC by 8
Jan 28th - Lost to Miami by 5
Feb 9th - lost to good guys by 8
Feb 15th - easily beat a flailing NC State team

I agree that they are a good team, but I don't see them as a dominant team. There are no signature away wins & the games were generally close.

They lost to Miami by 15 actually. And I'll make your point another way: against the ACC's Top 10 teams (by current record), the Heels have played three road games and lost all three by an average of 12 points (-8, -15, -12).

Now, they have also scored commanding wins at home against good teams (including blowouts of Louisville, FSU and UVA).

But let's see how they fare @ Pitt and @ UVA before we hand them anything.

[dukebluesincebirth]

This team will go as far as the defense can take it. I guess that's a tautology but it seems especially true with this group. We can score on anyone, sometimes more efficiently than others but almost always at a level good enough to win. The defense is a major problem, esp. the inability to contain dribble penetration by quick PGs. Not sure there's a fix for that on this roster. Jones is an excellent defender but not a lock-down dribble-stopper. Jackson has the speed but is still green and inconsistent. A change of scheme such as to a zone causes other problems.

We can beat anyone but can lose to overall inferior teams if they have quick guards. That's something that's likely just going to be inherent to this team, and hopefully in the postseason we'll get lucky with matchups.

I feel like we have this dribble penetration problem every year. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like it comes up in the discussion every year. I've come to believe it's just another extension of the one and done double edged sword. To have a point guard that's really good at shutting down the opposing dribble drive, that point guard usually needs time to learn and practice the proper technique to accomplish this. That point guard also needs time to develop upper/lower body strength (another factor in stopping drives), and needs time to develop the discipline and motivation to put hard work into individual defense. So this leaves you 2 options in the one and done era:
1. go after top tier talent all the time, every position, highest rated, one and done, best of the best, etc. (they stay one year and don't have time to develop needed skills stated above)
2. go after a PG who is not top tier and will likely stay 3-4 years and become a great dribble-drive defender before they leave (but sacrifice the other immediate talents that the one and done guy brings to the table)

I don't see many one and done guards who are lock down, one on one defenders. I could be wrong, but most are focused on the offensive side of the court. Duke has chosen option #1, which is fine with me and probably more successful overall. But it will rarely produce guards who are going to be effective at stopping dribble penetration. Frustrating for me to watch, but have to accept it as the nature of today's game.

[Troublemaker]

Just noticed that I over-sold this year's FT shooting pct slightly. It's actually the 4th best in the Krzyzewski Era behind 1990 (.764), 2006 (.761) and 2010 (.759). 2006, by the way, was JJ's worst year from the line at .863 but the Landlord shot a very respectable .744 and JJ and Shelden combined for 61.6% of the team's FTA's.

The difference between those other seasons and this one is the total number of trips to the line. In 1990 Duke attempted 30.6 FT/gm. This year they're on pace for the 5th fewest in K's rein with 21.5. Looking at what happened in the 4 seasons where they went to the line even less often doesn't reassure:

A lot of that has to do with pace, though. For most of Coach K's career, we were a much faster team and we've slowed down in recent seasons. (I don't know why.) If we use a pace-independent stat like free throw rate (FTA / FGA), then Duke ranks 91st in the country and 4th in the conference at getting to the free throw line. So, we're not great at drawing fouls, but we're good enough, imo. I don't consider it a weakness, especially relative to fouling too much on the other end.

Also, as a kenpom subscriber, I'm looking at our free throw rates since 2010, and this year's team is right in the middle of the pack. So this team doesn't stand out for not drawing enough fouls using that pace-independent metric.

[Troublemaker]

It took you watching the high lights to see what happened. I'm not picking on you when I say this :cool: but can you imagine how quick that play seemed to our guy. I'm sure getting back on defense has been drilled into the teams mind because of how much it has hurt us this season. I bet that's the first thing our guy thought about, not that I'm a mind reader or anything. One thing I questioned last night was why all of sudden did we stop trying to get the ball to Amile in the low post? He was waving his arms that he was open and it was working better than any other play. GoDuke!

It needs to be drilled some more because last night's performance in defensive transition was arguably the worst since VaTech. The slippage in PNR defense and transition defense is not good. We need to be improving, not regressing back towards the struggles of the 3-4 ACC start.

Offensive transition was, of course, also bad.

[Troublemaker]

Very good post, especially on Grayson. If people can't see how much Grayson's injury is affecting his game, then they haven't watched him play for the last 3 years. As some have posted previously, Grayson's game is based on his explosiveness. When he's hitting those 3 pointers, he's getting lift on his shot. Now he's just rushing and shooting a push shot. The guy is playing as hard as he can under the circumstances. Plus, it's hurting his defense. With Grayson and Matt not shooting like they normally do, we have Jayson, Luke and Amile as primary scorers. That's not going to get it done come NCAAT. We cannot win games with our defense as in years past. The switching defense is giving up way too many 2's and last night Syracuse hit most of their 3s as well. I know this is just one loss after 7 wins in a row, but in some of those wins, the D was bad. I hope to see something different against Miami. GoDuke!

To be precise, Duke's PNR defense and transition defense gave up too many 2s.

The actual switching 1 thru 4 didn't hurt us as much as people are thinking. Like, if you cut up the game film and splice together every play that Syracuse attacked the switch (either Lydon in the post or a guard driving Tatum), I highly doubt Syracuse scored 1 point per possession. It may have been something really low like 0.8 ppp.

Lydon in the post after a switch only hurt us twice, IIRC - once was when he passed out of a double-team for a dunk down the lane, and once when he scored over Grayson with 4 fouls late in the game -- but otherwise, Cuse had a lot of issues, including turnovers, trying to take advantage of it. One reason was because whoever was guarding Roberson totally ignored him (because Roberson can't shoot) and sunk down to help on Lydon.

What killed us in this game was pick-and-roll involving the center (Amile / Harry), which we didn't switch in this game, unlike the 2nd half of Wake.

[Duke79UNLV77]

A lot of that has to do with pace, though. For most of Coach K's career, we were a much faster team and we've slowed down in recent seasons. (I don't know why.) If we use a pace-independent stat like free throw rate (FTA / FGA), then Duke ranks 91st in the country and 4th in the conference at getting to the free throw line. So, we're not great at drawing fouls, but we're good enough, imo. I don't consider it a weakness, especially relative to fouling too much on the other end.

Also, as a kenpom subscriber, I'm looking at our free throw rates since 2010, and this year's team is right in the middle of the pack. So this team doesn't stand out for not drawing enough fouls using that pace-independent metric.

Duke's opponent has shot more free throws than Duke in 8 of the last 9 games, with the only exception being the Virginia game where they fouled repeatedly on purpose at the end. We've won 7 of those 9 games. Statistically, as Al Featherston has detailed in the past, one would expect a team that wins most of the time to have a free throw advantage.

[wsb3]

The team has shown it is capable of high level play. But consistency is key. I STILL think it's possible to get to the next level this year. But time really is running out.

My thoughts as well...We don't have much time left to put the puzzle together.

Here is to hoping Giles or Bolden, (or both) really step up down the stretch. I don't see any kind of deep run without that happening.

[dukelifer]

Since December, their away games are as follows:
Dec. 17th - Lost to Kentucky on neutral court
Dec. 31st - Lost to GT by 12
Jan. 3rd - Beat Clemson in OT
Jan 11th - Beat Wake by 6
Jan 21st - Beat BC by 8
Jan 28th - Lost to Miami by 5
Feb 9th - lost to good guys by 8
Feb 15th - easily beat a flailing NC State team

I agree that they are a good team, but I don't see them as a dominant team. There are no signature away wins & the games were generally close.

But they are at the top of the best conference in college basketball which will be rewarded with a number 1 seed. I agree they are not dominant- but they can win multiple ways. That is a dangerous team. UNC is well poised to get to the FF. We will see who else is there to determine their chances.

[OZ]

My thoughts as well...We don't have much time left to put the puzzle together.

Here is to hoping Giles or Bolden, (or both) really step up down the stretch. I don't see any kind of deep run without that happening.

With just three games remaining in the regular season, that illusive "readiness for the stretch" is nigh upon us.

[sagegrouse]

I feel like we have this dribble penetration problem every year. Maybe it's just me, but I feel like it comes up in the discussion every year. I've come to believe it's just another extension of the one and done double edged sword. To have a point guard that's really good at shutting down the opposing dribble drive, that point guard usually needs time to learn and practice the proper technique to accomplish this. That point guard also needs time to develop upper/lower body strength (another factor in stopping drives), and needs time to develop the discipline and motivation to put hard work into individual defense. .......
Look at it this way. At least we don't have to ceaselessly moan, "Why is Plumlee (pick one) out beyond the arc on a guard." The "hedge" seems to have disappeared or at least is now better integrated with the rest of the defense.

[bluedev_92]

My thoughts as well...We don't have much time left to put the puzzle together.

Here is to hoping Giles or Bolden, (or both) really step up down the stretch. I don't see any kind of deep run without that happening.

To me, Giles is looking much better & showing his athleticism at the rim. Nice alley-oop & a very skilled finish when it looked like he was on the left side of the basket & put it in off the backboard on the right side. At least from the TV angle, it looked impressive. Feeling good about his progress.

[Matches]

My thoughts as well...We don't have much time left to put the puzzle together.

Here is to hoping Giles or Bolden, (or both) really step up down the stretch. I don't see any kind of deep run without that happening.

Eh, I disagree. One or both of those guys would have to light on fire for the team to be the dominant force a lot of folks (myself included) expected in the preseason.

But the team that just won 7 straight in the loaded ACC is certainly capable of a deep run. It's also capable of flaming out on the first weekend against quick guards, but if that team could knock off ND, UNC & UVA it is quite capable of a deep tourney run.

[Spanarkel]

I have bookmarked the video for later watching since it comes so highly reviewed by posters like you that I respect.

However, the stats speak for themselves. Duke had 118 offensive efficiency against Cuse despite blowing several fast breaks that would've put us into the 120s. Duke had 16 assists to only 8 turnovers (a very nice stat since Cuse's zone, even this year's lesser one, forces turnovers). We were able to attack them from all 3 levels - threes, mid to high post, and the baseline. And we achieved the high efficiency without shooting well from three.

All in all, I call that a good day against the zone. Regardless of whether we used the exact tactics mentioned in that video.

I also think every coach has his only idea of how to attack zone, and it's the results that matter. For example, I've seen UVA have a lot of success setting high-ball screens against the zone and attacking with the drive. A lot of people would say that's a bad idea against zone, but they make it work.

Syracuse is 112th(out of 351 teams)in number of opponents' TOs this year(13.4/game).
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2017-opponent-stats.html

[flyingdutchdevil]

To me, Giles is looking much better & showing his athleticism at the rim. Nice alley-oop & a very skilled finish when it looked like he was on the left side of the basket & put it in off the backboard on the right side. At least from the TV angle, it looked impressive. Feeling good about his progress.

This. I thought Giles was excellent last night: no idiotic plays, solid D, good offensive positioning...

I am normally not critical of Coach K's short rotations. I generally like them. But I am baffled by his coaching this year. I understand the starting line-up, I understand that Bolden isn't really ready... but why not play Giles more, who is looking soooooo much better? Why continue to play Grayson Allen plenty of minutes despite shooting 23% from the floor in the last 4 games. Yes - that stat is real. He's taken 39 shots and only made 9.

Grayson Allen has been awful when it comes to shooting lately. He's clearly not himself, and playing him this many minutes can hurt Duke (as it did last night). Play Frank Jackson more, who provides muuuuuch better defense and opportunistic scoring. That allows Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson to be even more involved in the offense, which is a good thing.

[TKG]

It needs to be drilled some more because last night's performance in defensive transition was arguably the worst since VaTech. The slippage in PNR defense and transition defense is not good. We need to be improving, not regressing back towards the struggles of the 3-4 ACC start.

Offensive transition was, of course, also bad.

There was press conference many years ago in which both K and Laettner were on the dais. Laettner, being Laettner, made some smart I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. remark to which K fired back. "Well, it took you three years to learn the damn defense." As I think about that remark and our increased involvement with OADs I wonder if we might need to adjust our defensive schemes to reflect our personnel. Our defense is predicated on communication but as K has noted younger guys struggle more with communication than with other aspects of defense. Our Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating over the past four years: 2015 =87; 2015= 12; 2016=87 and this year = 48. I will be the first to admit that I do not have an answer. Do we play match up zone or some other junk D? Maybe we have made changes that I have failed to notice. The difference between our AdjO (7) and AdjD (48) is the largest spread of any team in the Top 25 with the exception of UCLA and Oklahoma State. I am concerned that when our offense is struggling we might not be able to rely on our D to keep us in games.

[dukebluesincebirth]

This. I thought Giles was excellent last night: no idiotic plays, solid D, good offensive positioning...

I am normally not critical of Coach K's short rotations. I generally like them. But I am baffled by his coaching this year. I understand the starting line-up, I understand that Bolden isn't really ready... but why not play Giles more, who is looking soooooo much better? Why continue to play Grayson Allen plenty of minutes despite shooting 23% from the floor in the last 4 games. Yes - that stat is real. He's taken 39 shots and only made 9.

Grayson Allen has been awful when it comes to shooting lately. He's clearly not himself, and playing him this many minutes can hurt Duke (as it did last night). Play Frank Jackson more, who provides muuuuuch better defense and opportunistic scoring. That allows Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson to be even more involved in the offense, which is a good thing.

Agree on Giles...I think after the previous game someone had posted that Coach K said it was an endurance issue with Harry's minutes. That could be the only reason. Last night, Amile was playing really well in the 2nd half, so it was hard for coach to take him out.
Also agree on Grayson, but the problem last night was that his replacement (Frank) was almost just as bad! I was calling for Frank to come in, then Frank starts hoisting up brick after brick, then throws the ball straight out of bounds on a simple pass! He also got beat off the dribble several times. I think Grayson needs to sit, and it needs to be made clear to Frank: your job is to distribute the basketball to Luke Kennard and Jayson Tatum without turning it over. With Grayson, he either needs to sit or approach the game differently being injured because he's hurting us playing like he did last night.

[DBFAN]

Outside of UNC getting big schedule advantage this season by not playing most of the good teams on the road, I wanna do some research or someone else could too, into how many times UNC had 2 conference games in 3 days. I could be completely wrong about this and I apologize if I am, but I only recall 1 game like that. Also interested in how many times their opponents had 1 day rest coming in to their place when they had 3 days rest. I know it looks like they are getting so much better to everyone but it may be exaggerated quite a bit. When ACC tourney comes if UNC wins first game (not a given since it won't be in Dean Dome 😎) I'm interested to see how well the second game goes for then

[kAzE]

This. I thought Giles was excellent last night: no idiotic plays, solid D, good offensive positioning...

I am normally not critical of Coach K's short rotations. I generally like them. But I am baffled by his coaching this year. I understand the starting line-up, I understand that Bolden isn't really ready... but why not play Giles more, who is looking soooooo much better? Why continue to play Grayson Allen plenty of minutes despite shooting 23% from the floor in the last 4 games. Yes - that stat is real. He's taken 39 shots and only made 9.

Grayson Allen has been awful when it comes to shooting lately. He's clearly not himself, and playing him this many minutes can hurt Duke (as it did last night). Play Frank Jackson more, who provides muuuuuch better defense and opportunistic scoring. That allows Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson to be even more involved in the offense, which is a good thing.

Agreed on Giles, though I'm not sure whose minutes he takes. Moving Jayson to the 3 for stretches seems like the only real way he gets more minutes, and I'm not sure how that will affect the team's performance overall. I think it might hurt a bit defensively, especially against those quick guards that always give us so much trouble.

Regarding Grayson, I'm not sure what Coach K was supposed to do last night. Both Frank and Grayson were awful, and Frank picked up 4 fouls in the blink of an eye. I think Grayson's 1 made three in the 2nd half gave him a bit too much confidence, and it hurt us on those last 2 possessions, one where he took a contested 3, and then the last possession, where he held on to the ball way too long and gave it to Luke with about 5 seconds left to create something out of nothing. Luke needed that ball much earlier so he could read the defense and get a screen or something.

Again, if Grayson played even a relatively poor game by Grayson standards last night, and not the worst game of his entire Duke career, we win comfortably.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There was press conference many years ago in which both K and Laettner were on the dais. Laettner, being Laettner, made some smart I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. remark to which K fired back. "Well, it took you three years to learn the damn defense." As I think about that remark and our increased involvement with OADs I wonder if we might need to adjust our defensive schemes to reflect our personnel. Our defense is predicated on communication but as K has noted younger guys struggle more with communication than with other aspects of defense. Our Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating over the past four years: 2015 =87; 2015= 12; 2016=87 and this year = 48. I will be the first to admit that I do not have an answer. Do we play match up zone or some other junk D? Maybe we have made changes that I have failed to notice. The difference between our AdjO (7) and AdjD (48) is the largest spread of any team in the Top 25 with the exception of UCLA and Oklahoma State. I am concerned that when our offense is struggling we might not be able to rely on our D to keep us in games.

This has been discussed every single year during the Duke OAD era. The truth is that Coach K isn't as good as Calipari in teaching simple defensive schemes nor does Coach K recruit many OADs you are defensive-minded (I believe Winslow is the only one).

As long as Coach K recruits OADs, be prepared for great offense and crappy defense.

[wsb3]

Eh, I disagree. One or both of those guys would have to light on fire for the team to be the dominant force a lot of folks (myself included) expected in the preseason.

But the team that just won 7 straight in the loaded ACC is certainly capable of a deep run. It's also capable of flaming out on the first weekend against quick guards, but if that team could knock off ND, UNC & UVA it is quite capable of a deep tourney run.

Of course I hope you are 100% accurate & I am 100% wrong..

Amile playing 5 & guarding stronger players..he will get in foul trouble. I love him. He does so much but it is reality that he will be in foul trouble & there will come a time in the big boy tourney when we will need Giles or Bolden to be huge & for more than 10 minutes. Yeah the preseason hype has long been gone...

Also be nice to get Grayson healthy but I don't know if that is going to happen till off season.

[Troublemaker]

There was press conference many years ago in which both K and Laettner were on the dais. Laettner, being Laettner, made some smart I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. remark to which K fired back. "Well, it took you three years to learn the damn defense." As I think about that remark and our increased involvement with OADs I wonder if we might need to adjust our defensive schemes to reflect our personnel. Our defense is predicated on communication but as K has noted younger guys struggle more with communication than with other aspects of defense. Our Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating over the past four years: 2015 =87; 2015= 12; 2016=87 and this year = 48. I will be the first to admit that I do not have an answer. Do we play match up zone or some other junk D? Maybe we have made changes that I have failed to notice. The difference between our AdjO (7) and AdjD (48) is the largest spread of any team in the Top 25 with the exception of UCLA and Oklahoma State. I am concerned that when our offense is struggling we might not be able to rely on our D to keep us in games.


This has been discussed every single year during the Duke OAD era. The truth is that Coach K isn't as good as Calipari in teaching simple defensive schemes nor does Coach K recruit many OADs you are defensive-minded (I believe Winslow is the only one).

As long as Coach K recruits OADs, be prepared for great offense and crappy defense.

I think health is probably a bigger factor than OADs. At the very least, it'd be very hard to differentiate which is the bigger factor because we've had so few healthy seasons during the OAD era. A scientist would say we're lacking the data to control for health.

The one season we had lots of OADs and lots of good health, we ended up ranked #12 on D, won a championship, and imo played the best basketball of any Duke team since the early 2000s at the end of the season.

With respect to this season, I never expected that at the end of February, we'd have a banged up Amile as our starting center and a banged up Grayson as our starting point guard. And, of course, the injuries to Marques and Harry have cost us so much. Particularly Marques, who has great defensive potential, imo. Frankly, I'd love to see Duke play him much more than we have been playing him. Maybe we can't for health reasons or something.

[Matches]

Agreed on Giles, though I'm not sure whose minutes he takes. Moving Jayson to the 3 for stretches seems like the only real way he gets more minutes, and I'm not sure how that will affect the team's performance overall. I think it might hurt a bit defensively, especially against those quick guards that always give us so much trouble.

Regarding Grayson, I'm not sure what Coach K was supposed to do last night. Both Frank and Grayson were awful, and Frank picked up 4 fouls in the blink of an eye.

Yea I think really the only big lineup shifts K could make would be to play Jackson more (as you say, not really an option last night), or play Amile together with either Giles or Bolden. I could see that being useful against some teams but probably not so much against the Orange zone. I was really hoping that either Amile would develop a 15-foot jumper this year, or that Giles or Bolden would feature one, but that really hasn't happened.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think health is probably a bigger factor than OADs. At the very least, it'd be very hard to differentiate which is the bigger factor because we've had so few healthy seasons during the OAD era. A scientist would say we're lacking the data to control for health.

The one season we had lots of OADs and lots of good health, we ended up ranked #12 on D, won a championship, and imo played the best basketball of any Duke team since the early 2000s at the end of the season.

With respect to this season, I never expected that at the end of February, we'd have a banged up Amile as our starting center and a banged up Grayson as our starting point guard. And, of course, the injuries to Marques and Harry have cost us so much. Particularly Marques, who has great defensive potential, imo. Frankly, I'd love to see Duke play him much more than we have been playing him. Maybe we can't for health reasons or something.

Disagree. Kedsy brings this up all the time, but right before the tournament in 2015, we were ranked in the 30s (or worse) in defensive efficiency. We certainly learned to play defense really well during the tournament. And in KenPom's model, tournament results are more highly weighted.

Also, during Duke's OAD period (starting with 2011-12 because 2010-11 wasn't really an OAD given Kyrie's 11 games), Duke has ranked #78, #26 (no OAD year), #87, #12 (banner year), #86, and now #48.

In the prior years, starting with 2002 (and again not including 2010-11), Duke has had the following defensive efficiency rankings: #1, #16, #3, #2, #18, #5, #7, #31, #5.

So, something clearly happened after 2010-2011. Either a) Coach K stopped teaching defense or b) certain new personnel cannot learn defense.

[Troublemaker]

Syracuse is 112th(out of 351 teams)in number of opponents' TOs this year(13.4/game).
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2017-opponent-stats.html

Which is decent. And then when you look at only conference games, they're 3rd in the conference at forcing turnovers. So the fact that we only had 8 is good and perhaps not something we would've been capable of a month ago.

[Troublemaker]

Disagree. Kedsy brings this up all the time, but right before the tournament in 2015, we were ranked in the 30s (or worse) in defensive efficiency. We certainly learned to play defense really well during the tournament. And in KenPom's model, tournament results are more highly weighted.

Also, during Duke's OAD period (starting with 2011-12 because 2010-11 wasn't really an OAD given Kyrie's 11 games), Duke has ranked #78, #26 (no OAD year), #87, #12 (banner year), #86, and now #48.

In the prior years, starting with 2002 (and again not including 2010-11), Duke has had the following defensive efficiency rankings: #1, #16, #3, #2, #18, #5, #7, #31, #5.

So, something clearly happened after 2010-2011. Either a) Coach K stopped teaching defense or b) certain new personnel cannot learn defense.

Right, but how do you control for health? Many of those seasons had both OADs and poor health. You can disagree and have your pet theory, but I have my own. Scientifically, neither of us can prove the other wrong until we have lots of OAD seasons with good health.

Also, playing great defense during the tournament is what it's about. Would love to see this team do it.

Also, the kenpom system is super-sensitive to recent performance. Two games ago we were #25 and therefore a good, improving defense. Now we're #48 and a mediocre, sliding defense. That's just the system.

[jv001]

But they are at the top of the best conference in college basketball which will be rewarded with a number 1 seed. I agree they are not dominant- but they can win multiple ways. That is a dangerous team. UNC is well poised to get to the FF. We will see who else is there to determine their chances.

I just listened to an interview on XM Radio with old roy. He was crying the blues and complaining about his team's tough schedule. He went as far to say "no one should have to play a schedule like this". I guess he would consider suicide if he had Duke's schedule this season. Just another reason to hate them cheatin rascals. GoDuke!

[Dukehky]

This. I thought Giles was excellent last night: no idiotic plays, solid D, good offensive positioning...

I am normally not critical of Coach K's short rotations. I generally like them. But I am baffled by his coaching this year. I understand the starting line-up, I understand that Bolden isn't really ready... but why not play Giles more, who is looking soooooo much better? Why continue to play Grayson Allen plenty of minutes despite shooting 23% from the floor in the last 4 games. Yes - that stat is real. He's taken 39 shots and only made 9.

Grayson Allen has been awful when it comes to shooting lately. He's clearly not himself, and playing him this many minutes can hurt Duke (as it did last night). Play Frank Jackson more, who provides muuuuuch better defense and opportunistic scoring. That allows Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson to be even more involved in the offense, which is a good thing.

To be fair, Frank was atrocious last night, which I think led to GA's extended minutes. If we're going to have a guard be bad on offense, it may as well be the guy who we've seen shake off a cold stretch within the same game.

I too love Frank, I think he's incredible, but his shot wasn't good against the zone and his normal quickness advantage was largely mitigated against it. I don't like the move not to play him instead of GA, but I understand it.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy brings this up all the time, but right before the tournament in 2015, we were ranked in the 30s (or worse) in defensive efficiency.

In the ratings Pomeroy published at the time, our D was ranked #57 going into the 2015 tournament. I don't have access to behind his paywall, but you may be right that we were in the high 30s based on his new formula.

[SlapTheFloor]

This has been discussed every single year during the Duke OAD era. The truth is that Coach K isn't as good as Calipari in teaching simple defensive schemes nor does Coach K recruit many OADs you are defensive-minded (I believe Winslow is the only one).

As long as Coach K recruits OADs, be prepared for great offense and crappy defense.

We're starting a junior, a sophomore, a senior, and a fifth-year senior. Yes, both of our main reserves are also freshmen, but I don't know that we can hang our defensive deficiencies on youth.

[uh_no]

In the ratings Pomeroy published at the time, our D was ranked #57 going into the 2015 tournament. I don't have access to behind his paywall, but you may be right that we were in the high 30s based on his new formula.

37

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[duke4ever19]

Disagree. Kedsy brings this up all the time, but right before the tournament in 2015, we were ranked in the 30s (or worse) in defensive efficiency. We certainly learned to play defense really well during the tournament. And in KenPom's model, tournament results are more highly weighted.

Also, during Duke's OAD period (starting with 2011-12 because 2010-11 wasn't really an OAD given Kyrie's 11 games), Duke has ranked #78, #26 (no OAD year), #87, #12 (banner year), #86, and now #48.

In the prior years, starting with 2002 (and again not including 2010-11), Duke has had the following defensive efficiency rankings: #1, #16, #3, #2, #18, #5, #7, #31, #5.

So, something clearly happened after 2010-2011. Either a) Coach K stopped teaching defense or b) certain new personnel cannot learn defense.

This. All of the above.

K has actually admitted to simplifying and streamlining his defensive teaching with the coming of the acceptance of the OAD era.

A higher player turnover rate means the he can't possibly teach the nuances of his defense that past veteran teams learned over the course of several years. And let's say K was stubborn and stuck with what he taught before the OAD. Every year, its possible that your best player(s) (the OAD guys) on the court on offense would be a liability on defense because that haven't had two seasons to get stuff down.

The evidence on tape, plus K's own admission and the numbers (cited by flyingdutchdevil) reveal that something profound did happen on the defensive side.

[kAzE]

This. All of the above.

K has actually admitted to simplifying and streamlining his defensive teaching with the coming of the acceptance of the OAD era.

A higher player turnover rate means the he can't possibly teach the nuances of his defense that past veteran teams learned over the course of several years. And let's say K was stubborn and stuck with what he taught before the OAD. Every year, its possible that your best player(s) (the OAD guys) on the court on offense would be a liability on defense because that haven't had two seasons to get stuff down.

The evidence on tape, plus K's own admission and the numbers (cited by flyingdutchdevil) reveal that something profound did happen on the defensive side.

There's nothing profound about that . . . defense is 5 players acting as 1, much more so than offense. The more continuity you have, the better defense you can potentially play. Of course OADs are going to screw with defensive chemistry. All the best defensive teams are loaded with veterans. Our best defensive team of the past decade started 3 seniors and 2 juniors. OADs = bad defense.

Unless you're UK. Calipari has the secret sauce to good defense with OAD guys (Although I suspect it's because the guys he's gotten are more defensively inclined than the majority of our OADs)

But having said all that, if Amile never got hurt, I think we'd be much better defensively at this point. He's had some flashes, but he hasn't been the defensive force he was at the start of the season.

[rsvman]

Look at it this way. At least we don't have to ceaselessly moan, "Why is Plumlee (pick one) out beyond the arc on a guard." The "hedge" seems to have disappeared or at least is now better integrated with the rest of the defense.

Not entirely true.

There's been a lot of discussion about our pick-and-roll defense on this thread and throughout the season. You are correct that prior to about 3 years ago (guessing here), K used a hard hedge as a routine part of his defensive scheme. While it was often very effective, by taking the opposing team out of their offensive sets, other coaches could exploit by simply moving the high pick-and-roll even higher, and then anticipating the hedge, which allowed the ball to get behind our big and created, essentially, a 5-on-4 offensive play.

Coach moved to "icing" the screen more frequently a couple of years ago, perhaps in response to the number of times the hedge was exploited. The 2015 team eventually became really adept at icing the ball screens, and the defense became more effective the better they got at it.

This year, Coach K has employed the hard hedge, icing, and switching, and he has mixed it up a bit. I do think they have employed straight switching more than in any other year I can remember, but they are certainly not exclusively switching. Even in last night's game, they were icing for portions of the game. I did not see any hedging in last night's game, but it has been used this season on several occasions. It is notable that when Bolden has been in, the hard hedge has been used more frequently. I am surmising that Coach K thinks that Bolden is fairly adept at the hard hedge. One hypothesis for why Bolden gets or doesn't get time i certain games is that perhaps Coach K uses him more when he thinks the hard hedge will be more effective; perhaps he chooses his defensive scheme based on the personnel/propensities of the other team.

I'm not trying to be negative about your post at all, sage, I'm just making sure that everybody knows that we have employed at least THREE separate schemes for attempting to defend the pick-and-roll. So it's not like Coach K isn't trying. We've been successful at times this season with the hard hedge, we've been successful with icing, and we've been successful with switching. That said, in all three approaches we have had some obvious failures. Failures tend to be more memorable, especially to this crowd, so it's not surprising that people think two things that are not, strictly speaking, true: 1) that we have been using switching as our only defensive scheme, and 2) that we have never been successful at defending the pick-and-roll.

[BandAlum83]

I just listened to an interview on XM Radio with old roy. He was crying the blues and complaining about his team's tough schedule. He went as far to say "no one should have to play a schedule like this". I guess he would consider suicide if he had Duke's schedule this season. Just another reason to hate them cheatin rascals. GoDuke!

What is the in-conference SOS for each of the ACC teams? It must be easily available somewhere.

Wait...I just found something:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accsosag.html#sflx

Unless I am misunderstanding something, I believe this is in-conference SOS sortable by full schedule, games played so far and games remaining.

If I am reading this correctly, Duke has the most difficult schedule for the year, UNC has the 11th.

From a games played standpoint, Duke has the 8th most difficult thus far, and UNC has the 12th hardest.

Remaining schedule, Duke has the most difficult remaining games by far, and UNC has the 9th most difficult remaining games.

So in conclusion, what is Roy complaining about? Granted, I don't know anything about the linked website or methodology. Heck, I'm not even sure I'm interpreting it correctly.

BTW, there is a probability section as well that gives Duke a 15% probability of winning the ACCT (UNC 21%, Louisville 20%) with a 27% chance of participating in the Championship game (UNC 35%, Louisville 35%, FSU 27%)

[BandAlum83]

We're starting a junior, a sophomore, a senior, and a fifth-year senior. Yes, both of our main reserves are also freshmen, but I don't know that we can hang our defensive deficiencies on youth.



THIS!!!!

[Troublemaker]

[/B]

This. All of the above.

K has actually admitted to simplifying and streamlining his defensive teaching with the coming of the acceptance of the OAD era.

A higher player turnover rate means the he can't possibly teach the nuances of his defense that past veteran teams learned over the course of several years. And let's say K was stubborn and stuck with what he taught before the OAD. Every year, its possible that your best player(s) (the OAD guys) on the court on offense would be a liability on defense because that haven't had two seasons to get stuff down.

The evidence on tape, plus K's own admission and the numbers (cited by flyingdutchdevil) reveal that something profound did happen on the defensive side.

Right, but that only shows that recruiting OADs have played a role in the program's defensive decline. I don't reject that. I just think it's a minor factor compared to injury. (Plus, Coach K has made his adjustments, right? At least since the 2015 season, with the Thibs influence and throwing out the zone as a changeup.)

Last season Duke had the #86 defense in large part because of Amile's season-ending injury, not because Brandon Ingram couldn't pick up the defense, for example. Brandon, if he struggled, played a minor role.

This season, as others have pointed out upthread, Duke has a veteran team. If we're struggling on defense right now, I think you first have to look at the fact that we're playing an injured, undersized Amile at center. Who is probably only playing center in the first place because of the preseason injuries to Bolden and Giles. Plus, our point guard Grayson is also dragging around a bad ankle right now.

My hope is that Grayson can get some rest to heal a sprained ankle. And for Bolden and Giles to play more, either because of a "breakthrough" they've made or because Coach K relaxes his tight rotation, or a combo.

[duke4ever19]

There's nothing profound about that . . . defense is 5 players acting as 1, much more so than offense. The more continuity you have, the better defense you can potentially play. Of course OADs are going to screw with defensive chemistry. All the best defensive teams are loaded with veterans. Our best defensive team of the past decade started 3 seniors and 2 juniors. OADs = bad defense.

Unless you're UK. Calipari has the secret sauce to good defense with OAD guys (Although I suspect it's because the guys he's gotten are more defensively inclined than the majority of our OADs)

But having said all that, if Amile never got hurt, I think we'd be much better defensively at this point. He's had some flashes, but he hasn't been the defensive force he was at the start of the season.

It sounds like you are disagreeing with me, but your post just reiterates what I said, so I'll not argue with myself.

Your quibble is with the word "profound," but besides that, I don't disagree with anything you have written

Again, K has said that he has had to simplify his defensive scheme to suit the current OAD climate. This means more than just having veterans or not having veterans, it means he has taken out defensive "looks" his team can implement during a game. That is clear for anyone that has watched Duke play before the OAD era. There are a wealth of duke games from the 90s and 2000s which might give you a fresh look at what K was doing (and not doing) and now has steered away from because he can't rely on youth to incorporate more into their game-plan.

[COYS]

Right, but that only shows that recruiting OADs have played a role in the program's defensive decline. I don't reject that. I just think it's a minor factor compared to injury. (Plus, Coach K has made his adjustments, right? At least since the 2015 season, with the Thibs influence and throwing out the zone as a changeup.)

Last season Duke had the #86 defense in large part because of Amile's season-ending injury, not because Brandon Ingram couldn't pick up the defense, for example. Brandon, if he struggled, played a minor role.

This season, as others have pointed out upthread, Duke has a veteran team. If we're struggling on defense right now, I think you first have to look at the fact that we're playing an injured, undersized Amile at center. Who is probably only playing center in the first place because of the preseason injuries to Bolden and Giles. Plus, our point guard Grayson is also dragging around a bad ankle right now.

My hope is that Grayson can get some rest to heal a sprained ankle. And for Bolden and Giles to play more, either because of a "breakthrough" they've made or because Coach K relaxes his tight rotation, or a combo.

I'm perpetually told that I can't spork you because I do it too much (is this sentence going to be caught by the DBR filter?). But this is right on. I think another way to think of it is to look at pre-OAD years when freshmen featured prominently. The 06-07 team is the youngest team of the era. Freshmen Scheyer, Thomas, and Gerald logged lots of minutes. Sophomores Paulus, McClure, and McRoberts joined them with a junior Nelson as the sole upperclassman. That team was REALLY young. (Ranked #331st in experience by KenPom). In fact, in terms of total years of experience for the team, it is probably the youngest team in Duke history with an average of only 0.79 years of college experience among the players. Yet it was an excellent defensive team (#5 in KenPom). Similarly, the 2015 team was really young (330th in KenPom's rankings) and yet they put it all together for the tournament.

Meanwhile, 2012, 2016, and, most of all, this year have featured key injuries.

I don't think K is lying when he says that he simplifies his defensive schemes for freshmen. And I don't think that youth has no effect on team defense. I just think it is merely one of a number of contributing factors with injuries being at least important and probably more important. Duke has had good defensive teams that were freshmen heavy.

[DukieInKansas]

What is the in-conference SOS for each of the ACC teams? It must be easily available somewhere.

Wait...I just found something:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accsosag.html#sflx

Unless I am misunderstanding something, I believe this is in-conference SOS sortable by full schedule, games played so far and games remaining.

If I am reading this correctly, Duke has the most difficult schedule for the year, UNC has the 11th.

From a games played standpoint, Duke has the 8th most difficult thus far, and UNC has the 12th hardest.

Remaining schedule, Duke has the most difficult remaining games by far, and UNC has the 9th most difficult remaining games.

So in conclusion, what is Roy complaining about? Granted, I don't know anything about the linked website or methodology. Heck, I'm not even sure I'm interpreting it correctly.

BTW, there is a probability section as well that gives Duke a 15% probability of winning the ACCT (UNC 21%, Louisville 20%) with a 27% chance of participating in the Championship game (UNC 35%, Louisville 35%, FSU 27%)

To be fair, unc has to play Duke twice and Duke doesn't have to play Duke twice - so unc's schedule must be harder. :D

[lotusland]

One huge change effecting Duke's Defense since the 2010 season is the "freedom of movement" changes in officiating. Duke played stifling man to man D but keeping one hand on the ball handler's hip was absolutely part of it. Duke played physical defense for the ACC. Not Big East physical but one hand was generally allowed and certainly was coached. Nolan and Kyle were both great on the ball defenders but you can't hand check like that anymore. Of course it helped a lot that they were juniors not freshmen in 2010 too. I think the FOM changes probably effect zone defense like Boheim's less but he also generally has upper classmen anchoring it. I don't think they are playing great D this year either tho. I think playing lock down MTM D is harder under current rules and having OAD players amplifies the issue greatly.

[Rich]

Again, K has said that he has had to simplify his defensive scheme to suit the current OAD climate. This means more than just having veterans or not having veterans, it means he has taken out defensive "looks" his team can implement during a game. That is clear for anyone that has watched Duke play before the OAD era. There are a wealth of duke games from the 90s and 2000s which might give you a fresh look at what K was doing (and not doing) and now has steered away from because he can't rely on youth to incorporate more into their game-plan.

I remember and long for the Duke teams that got into passing lanes and forced opponents to start their offense set beyond the three point line. Those teams would generate offense from their defense. I really can't recall a team like that in the last 5 years. I recall the 2015 team to be pretty pedestrian until the tournament, but even then they didn't have a team defense concept that locked down opponents they way Duke defenses did going back to the '80's, '90's and early '00's. I've generally attributed our recent defense difficulties to freshmen having difficulties acclimating to K's defense, which is what makes this year so frustrating, although obviously injuries have played a big role. That, and not having a lock down defender at the PG position.

But still, even in the games in which we've been relatively healthy, our defense was nowhere near how disruptive we seemed to be years ago. Maybe it has to do with offenses being more savvy and the distribution of talent across more teams than the "olden" days. It clearly also has to do with the rules to allow for player movement. Seems as though those rules have really made it hard for teams to dictate a game on the defensive end they way they used to.

[duke4ever19]

I remember and long for the Duke teams that got into passing lanes and forced opponents to start their offense set beyond the three point line. Those teams would generate offense from their defense. I really can't recall a team like that in the last 5 years. I recall the 2015 team to be pretty pedestrian until the tournament, but even then they didn't have a team defense concept that locked down opponents they way Duke defenses did going back to the '80's, '90's and early '00's. I've generally attributed our recent defense difficulties to freshmen having difficulties acclimating to K's defense, which is what makes this year so frustrating, although obviously injuries have played a big role. That, and not having a lock down defender at the PG position.

But still, even in the games in which we've been relatively healthy, our defense was nowhere near how disruptive we seemed to be years ago. Maybe it has to do with offenses being more savvy and the distribution of talent across more teams than the "olden" days. It clearly also has to do with the rules to allow for player movement. Seems as though those rules have really made it hard for teams to dictate a game on the defensive end they way they used to.

Right on with both bolded comments, and your other statements.

I wish I had the technical savvy to put together a video that points out what I mean. My father coached high school ball in Florida a long time (I got to know ex-Dukie Casey Sanders through him) and loves breaking down Duke film current and past (he was a zone guy, however). I bet I can get him to put together something to demonstrate with actual examples.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I'm still optimistic that we haven't seen the best out of this team. We're against the clock now. There have been small improvements- game by game. Giles is becoming more of a factor. He's not yet what we expected, but he's getting there. Tatum is improving, game by game, and he's definitely a factor. We've also had a few set backs. Amile and Grayson aren't 100%. K was out. Grayson had issues. I also thought the Syracuse game was a tough loss. On the same token, I wouldn't anticipate we will mess up that many fast breaks again this season. Syracuse is well coached and they have talent, and that is a tough environment. I know this team is what we expected. We were all excited and believed we would waltz to a title. If K can pull it all together and win it all, which I believe he is entirely capable of doing, it might be his best ever job at coaching.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I remember and long for the Duke teams that got into passing lanes and forced opponents to start their offense set beyond the three point line. Those teams would generate offense from their defense. I really can't recall a team like that in the last 5 years. I recall the 2015 team to be pretty pedestrian until the tournament, but even then they didn't have a team defense concept that locked down opponents they way Duke defenses did going back to the '80's, '90's and early '00's. I've generally attributed our recent defense difficulties to freshmen having difficulties acclimating to K's defense, which is what makes this year so frustrating, although obviously injuries have played a big role. That, and not having a lock down defender at the PG position.

But still, even in the games in which we've been relatively healthy, our defense was nowhere near how disruptive we seemed to be years ago. Maybe it has to do with offenses being more savvy and the distribution of talent across more teams than the "olden" days. It clearly also has to do with the rules to allow for player movement. Seems as though those rules have really made it hard for teams to dictate a game on the defensive end they way they used to.

Defense isn't taught at the high school level like it used to be, and Lord knows they will never have to play defense in the NBA. The stuff these kids are missing is fundamental.

[alteran]

I never thought I'd live to see the day where going 1-3 in our last 4 games would be a "reasonable expectation." My how times have changed!

Man, the trolls are out today!

[alteran]

I'm not sure what all the negativity is about.
??

A lot of the negativity appears to be "about" suspiciously new-ish accounts spewing factless nonsense.

[alteran]

As good as Duke's shooters are, if their shot selection was good, I think you could expect them to make more than 10 of 33.

UNC has played one of the toughest schedules of any team in the country. To insinuate they are somehow not deserving of their record and position as the best team in the conference at this point is simply sour grapes.

And how does their conference schedule rate? Looks like a lot of home cooking to me compared to the other upper tier ACC teams.

[devildeac]

And how does their conference schedule rate? Looks like a lot of home cooking to me compared to the other upper tier ACC teams.

Someone put up the ACC "away" schedule for this season a few weeks back. Most of the top half of the teams had 4-5 games away against the other top teams, except 2 outliers with Duke who had 7 and guess who had only 2? I also think someone did the analysis of the regular season conference champs the last 4 years or so and most (all?) had favorable away schedules. This is not taking away from the couple VA teams who were really, really good, but I'm almost at the point of shrugging my aging shoulders at the unbalanced schedules.

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm still optimistic that we haven't seen the best out of this team. We're against the clock now. There have been small improvements- game by game. Giles is becoming more of a factor. He's not yet what we expected, but he's getting there. Tatum is improving, game by game, and he's definitely a factor. We've also had a few set backs. Amile and Grayson aren't 100%. K was out. Grayson had issues. I also thought the Syracuse game was a tough loss. On the same token, I wouldn't anticipate we will mess up that many fast breaks again this season. Syracuse is well coached and they have talent, and that is a tough environment. I know this team is what we expected. We were all excited and believed we would waltz to a title. If K can pull it all together and win it all, which I believe he is entirely capable of doing, it might be his best ever job at coaching.

Giles is shooting 90% FGs in the last 5 games (9-10). Perhaps we should be working harder to get him more shots, and not as many for Grayson as long as Grayson is less than 50% (ie. @Syracuse).