PDA

View Full Version : Front Page article about Jayson Tatum



DukieInBrasil
02-21-2017, 10:10 AM
The front page article about Jayson is true, and Duke is becoming a better team because of it. But it was also true during "the struggling games". The difference, in my eyes, happened at Wake Forest. Duke was playing poorly after infamously losing to NCSU at home. Statistically, Tatum had a pretty solid game vs. State: 7-14 FG, 9 rebs and 16pts. At Wake he had a more modest, though not terrible game, 8 pts and 5 boards on 2-6 FGs. So what am i talking about? I'm talking about Tatum fouling out and watching from the bench as his teammates, principally Luke Kennard, mounted a furious comeback for an amazing win. I strongly suspect that Duke would have lost that game had Tatum not fouled out.
My conjecture, and i readily recognize that this is pure conjecture, is that Tatum watched Duke play like a team while he was sitting, and win, vs. knowing that with him playing they were losing, and that this ate him up inside. I think something clicked for Jayson either while sitting on the bench or during the practices prior to the next game at Notre Dame, that he knew that his play was adversely affecting the team, and that he committed to changing his style to better fit within the team.
Ever since then, he has been absolutely fantastic. Not only have his stats improved and his efficiency gone way up, but the eye test suggests that he has become a different player. Yes, he has all the same skills, but he is playing differently. People (me included) complained that he was a black hole on offense and that he would pound the ball into the hardwood before jacking up a stupid fadeaway 3 or long contested jumper. Those plays have essentially been eliminated from his game. He has become an eager passer and has become patient, in the flow, decisive, quick withe ball. It looks like he's bought into the team concept, and that the team can make him a better player. Good news for everyone! He is tuned in shooting too:52% FG, 56% 3FG, and 96% FT (he's only missed 1 in the last 6 games!) while averaging 8.5 rpg and 2.6 apg to go with 21 ppg. All of those numbers are well above his season averages.
There's no way to measure this but Duke's chemistry seems to have improved a lot too during this stretch, although winning will do that too. Duke has also largely abandoned attempts to play Giles and Bolden major minutes, allowing Tatum to play the 4 while Duke plays small.
All of these things are interactive so it's hard to say any one thing caused the others, but Tatum has figured out how to play within Duke's team framework, and Duke has figured out how to use Tatum most effectively. Wins all around!!! Hopefully this means 13 more of 'em!!!

Jeffrey
02-21-2017, 10:18 AM
IIRC, it was not that long ago this board was being rather critical of Jayson's play.

You don’t need a weatherman, to know which way the DBR wind blows.

WVDUKEFAN
02-21-2017, 11:02 AM
I think "DukieInBrasil" summed it up pretty well. There were people that were critical of his play, but, at the time, the comments were most valid - poor shot selection and lack of defensive effort are the two that come to mind.

UrinalCake
02-21-2017, 11:38 AM
I don't think he was nearly as bad against State as many make him out to be. He just missed some easy shots and we lost the game. If he had missed those last two threes against UVA and we had gone on to lose the game, what would we be saying about him? By definition those were "bad" shots - contested threes without passing the ball, one of which he was fading away - but when you hit them then you don't look like a selfish player. Conversely, if he had hit those layups against State and we had won then we would have applauded him for stepping up and taking over the game.

With that said, I agree that he has been sharing the ball more lately. But he is and has always been a scorer who is going to want the ball in his hands and will take a lot of shots.

DukieInBrasil
02-21-2017, 11:48 AM
I don't think he was nearly as bad against State as many make him out to be. He just missed some easy shots and we lost the game. If he had missed those last two threes against UVA and we had gone on to lose the game, what would we be saying about him? By definition those were "bad" shots - contested threes without passing the ball, one of which he was fading away - but when you hit them then you don't look like a selfish player. Conversely, if he had hit those layups against State and we had won then we would have applauded him for stepping up and taking over the game.

With that said, I agree that he has been sharing the ball more lately. But he is and has always been a scorer who is going to want the ball in his hands and will take a lot of shots.

While those 3s vs Wake were contested (by definition when shooting one does not pass the ball), he received a pass and either shot in rhythm or dribbled while going towards the rim before pulling up for the shot, not fading away. There was a general confidence by the team to get Tatum the ball as they looked almost exclusively to him to score, and in none of those shots did he aimlessly dribble around for a while.

Kedsy
02-21-2017, 12:29 PM
I don't think he was nearly as bad against State as many make him out to be. He just missed some easy shots and we lost the game. If he had missed those last two threes against UVA and we had gone on to lose the game, what would we be saying about him? By definition those were "bad" shots - contested threes without passing the ball, one of which he was fading away - but when you hit them then you don't look like a selfish player.

With that said, I agree that he has been sharing the ball more lately. But he is and has always been a scorer who is going to want the ball in his hands and will take a lot of shots.

I agree with this. Here are some of Jayson's stats, split into arbitrary periods:



Games # gms shotspg 2pmpg 2papg 2p% 3pmpg 3papg 3p% ftmpg ftapg ft% apg topg
Non-conf 5 13.2 4.2 10.2 0.412 0.8 3.0 0.267 4.6 5.0 0.920 2.2 2.0
VaT thru BC 3 12.7 5.3 8.0 0.667 1.3 4.7 0.286 5.0 6.3 0.789 3.0 3.3
FSU thru WF1 5 11.4 3.4 7.8 0.436 1.2 3.6 0.333 3.4 4.2 0.810 1.0 3.0
ND thru WF2 6 11.0 3.3 6.8 0.488 2.3 4.2 0.560 4.0 4.2 0.960 2.2 2.3


His total shots per page have been fairly consistent (though they've been going down slightly), and his two-point shooting percentage before his recent 6-game "resurgence" (47.3%) was essentially the same as it has been the last six games (48.8%). His passing in the last six games (2.2 assist vs. 2.3 tos) appears very similar to his passing in his first eight games (2.5 assists vs. 2.5 tos). The only significant differences seem to be (a) in the five "struggling games" his a/to ratio was much worse (primarily due to 0 assists and 7 turnovers against Louisville and Florida State); and (b) in the last six "resurgent" games his three-point shooting has been much better.

From an eye test standpoint (at least to my eyes), he still seems to be taking a couple cringeworthy shots per game, and to make a couple shake-your-head turnovers per game. Personally, I don't see that much difference, other than the fact that we've been winning recently.

CDu
02-21-2017, 12:37 PM
I think the biggest two differences I've seen for Tatum between his early ACC play and his current ACC play are as follows:

1. Taking fewer fadeaway jumpers
2. No longer laying on the floor after driving layups (i.e., getting back in transition defense)

The other big difference has been noted by Kedsy, and that is that he's making 3s. His 3pt % has been climbing. His shot distribution is changing too. He's shooting a bit less per game, and shooting a bit more from the outside. Whereas his 3pt shot was representing just ~25% of his FGA early, it now represents ~40% of his shots in more recent games. That, combined with his greatly-improved percentage on those 3s, has made him a MUCH more efficient player.

But the biggest things for me are still the first two points. Fewer low-percentage fadeaways, fewer lazy efforts getting back in transition. The shooting %s may be a fluke. But his decision making and shot selection and his effort in transition seem much better.

Indoor66
02-21-2017, 12:47 PM
I was a vocal critic of Jayson because of what I saw as selfish play. He did not pass the ball; he forced up shots that he usually missed and was then out of position to either rebound or play defense.

IMO he has "seen the light" and now plays within the offense - passing the ball and moving better without the ball. As a result his shot selection is much better and his completion percentage continues to rise. He takes fewer shots, far fewer poor shots, and scores more.

Looks like a formula for success for Jayson and the Team. I am very pleased with his progress and maturation.

Kedsy
02-21-2017, 12:48 PM
I'd also note that against the tough defenses of Louisville, Virginia, Florida State, and Miami, Jayson combined to have 1 assist against 13 turnovers. In all other games (including games against the tough defenses of Florida, Georgia Tech, and UNC), he combined for 43 assists against 39 turnovers. As for three-point shooting, while his 9 for 12 in his last two games is amazing, I have to see it a few more games before I believe it. It's possible that his poor passing/turnovers during the "struggling games" and his great recent shooting are both small sample anomalies.

Overall, I agree he's improving, as most Duke freshmen improve over the course of the season. What I don't agree with is the idea that a "switch turned on" and his recent play is worlds better than his previous play. He wasn't as bad as people said during our losing streak and he isn't as much better as people are saying now.

CDu
02-21-2017, 04:01 PM
I'd also note that against the tough defenses of Louisville, Virginia, Florida State, and Miami, Jayson combined to have 1 assist against 13 turnovers. In all other games (including games against the tough defenses of Florida, Georgia Tech, and UNC), he combined for 43 assists against 39 turnovers. As for three-point shooting, while his 9 for 12 in his last two games is amazing, I have to see it a few more games before I believe it. It's possible that his poor passing/turnovers during the "struggling games" and his great recent shooting are both small sample anomalies.

Overall, I agree he's improving, as most Duke freshmen improve over the course of the season. What I don't agree with is the idea that a "switch turned on" and his recent play is worlds better than his previous play. He wasn't as bad as people said during our losing streak and he isn't as much better as people are saying now.

I do think he had a "switch turning on" moment. But I don't think it has anything to do with his stats. I think the switch turning on was either after the State game and Coach K meeting or after the first Wake game. And it had to do with his effort defensively. Especially in transition. Prior to the Wake game, and including the State game, Tatum would frequently loaf after offensive possessions. Especially on possessions when he would take a driving layup. That failure to get back defensively hurt our defense. I haven't seen that nearly as much since the Coach K meeting.

Offensively, and statistically, the only real difference I see is that he is taking fewer fadeaways, is taking fewer drives into the teeth of the defense, and happens to be making his 3s. The latter is likely a fluke. The former are helpful adaptations.

But the biggest thing, like I said above, is that I think his effort in transition defense has improved dramatically. And that is what I would call his light-switch moment.

Kedsy
02-21-2017, 04:29 PM
I do think he had a "switch turning on" moment. But I don't think it has anything to do with his stats. I think the switch turning on was either after the State game and Coach K meeting or after the first Wake game. And it had to do with his effort defensively. Especially in transition. Prior to the Wake game, and including the State game, Tatum would frequently loaf after offensive possessions. Especially on possessions when he would take a driving layup. That failure to get back defensively hurt our defense. I haven't seen that nearly as much since the Coach K meeting.

Offensively, and statistically, the only real difference I see is that he is taking fewer fadeaways, is taking fewer drives into the teeth of the defense, and happens to be making his 3s. The latter is likely a fluke. The former are helpful adaptations.

But the biggest thing, like I said above, is that I think his effort in transition defense has improved dramatically. And that is what I would call his light-switch moment.

Maybe. I thought he gave good defensive effort his first few games, too. It's possible the increased speed and physicality of the game when we hit ACC play knocked him back a bit, and what seemed like a lack of effort was really a slow reaction to the needs of the moment, or a despondent feeling of helplessness in the games we were losing. Or maybe it was a lack of effort, I don't know. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.

I agree with you that he's been better at that aspect of the game recently. I don't know if it was a "light bulb" moment or simply acclimatizing to playing in the ACC.

InSpades
02-21-2017, 04:43 PM
He's just making more shots. If he was still shooting 30% from 3 the same people that were getting on him before would still be getting on him.

His incredible turnaround in 3-pt shooting isn't shot selection. It's just confidence or a hot streak or whatever you want to call it. If anything he's taking more difficult 3-pt shots (see the UVA game). They are just going in more and bless him for that because we've needed them.

Has his shot selection improved a bit from 2? Sure. I think that's a pretty small part of his improvement over the last 6 games.

I've always been impressed w/ his play though, from game 1. Very grateful to have him on this team and look forward to seeing what he will do the rest of the way.

yancem
02-21-2017, 04:53 PM
Maybe. I thought he gave good defensive effort his first few games, too. It's possible the increased speed and physicality of the game when we hit ACC play knocked him back a bit, and what seemed like a lack of effort was really a slow reaction to the needs of the moment, or a despondent feeling of helplessness in the games we were losing. Or maybe it was a lack of effort, I don't know. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.

I agree with you that he's been better at that aspect of the game recently. I don't know if it was a "light bulb" moment or simply acclimatizing to playing in the ACC.

I'm not sure effort was ever Tatum's issue but more of a focus thing. He seemed to spend to much time complaining about a missed call instead of getting back on defense. Recently he doesn't seem to have nearly as many or as bad of reactions to how the game is being called as he did for a stretch earlier in the season. My guess is that as a star high school player he used to get the benefit of the doubt a lot from refs but not so much now that he is in college and this was an adjustment for him. Maybe the coaches or his teammate said something to him or maybe the coaches made a video to illustrate the point like they did Hurley, IDK but he seems to have a much better "next play" attitude recently. Of course winning may be part of the reason for that.

I do agree that I haven't seen as huge of difference in his game as some seem to. He hasn't taken as many fade away jumpers but I'm not sure that any of his isolation 3's against UVA were really "good" shots other than that they went in. We will have to see if his recent 3 point % is for real or a blip but hopefully he will continue to grow with the rest of the team and chemistry will keep growing (along with many more wins). Now we just need to figure out how to get Giles and Bolden to more productive minutes to ad better balance to the team.

flyingdutchdevil
02-21-2017, 04:56 PM
Maybe. I thought he gave good defensive effort his first few games, too. It's possible the increased speed and physicality of the game when we hit ACC play knocked him back a bit, and what seemed like a lack of effort was really a slow reaction to the needs of the moment, or a despondent feeling of helplessness in the games we were losing. Or maybe it was a lack of effort, I don't know. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.

I agree with you that he's been better at that aspect of the game recently. I don't know if it was a "light bulb" moment or simply acclimatizing to playing in the ACC.

Can't they be the exact same thing? I agree with CDu that it was a light bulb moment, but it was likely a result of understanding what comes with ACC play.

Also, to your previous point on 3pt shooting, I agree that Tatum can't keep up this hot streak, but he is a phenomenal FT shooter (has any Duke player above 6'6" shot better than 85% from the line? Tatum is 6'8" and is shooting 87%. Pretty unbelievable) and that is often correlated with 3pt shooting (at least it's a good indicator the NBA 3pt shooting). I don't think Tatum is 56% good, but I think he can sustain 40%+.

Pghdukie
02-21-2017, 05:03 PM
Since K's return, how has the shots been distributed ? Seems that (IMO) Grayson, and Luke have been getting more, but Tatum has been more selective - thus more successful.

Listen to Quants
02-21-2017, 05:19 PM
I don't think he was nearly as bad against State as many make him out to be. He just missed some easy shots and we lost the game. If he had missed those last two threes against UVA and we had gone on to lose the game, what would we be saying about him? By definition those were "bad" shots - contested threes without passing the ball, one of which he was fading away - but when you hit them then you don't look like a selfish player. Conversely, if he had hit those layups against State and we had won then we would have applauded him for stepping up and taking over the game.

With that said, I agree that he has been sharing the ball more lately. But he is and has always been a scorer who is going to want the ball in his hands and will take a lot of shots.

At least a couple of Tatum's 'bad' shots (and I certainly accept your definition of 'bad') were very late in the shot clock. A bad shot there, obviously, is better than no shot. Tatum is an fine late in the shot-clock guy, as he can get free vertically and shoots well.

Now, if he will just box out more on the defensive boards. .... I gotta whine about something :)

Bob Green
02-21-2017, 05:23 PM
Since K's return, how has the shots been distributed ? Seems that (IMO) Grayson, and Luke have been getting more, but Tatum has been more selective - thus more successful.

Jayson Tatum FG numbers over the past five games are: 6-11, 8-13, 3-8, 5-14, 4-7 for 26-53 (49%) total. His numbers for the five preceding games are: 8-14, 2-6, 7-14, 4-9, 3-11 for 24-54 (44.4%) total.

He took one less shot in the most recent five games than in the five games before. This quick numbers crunch doesn't look at the shot selection quality so I'm not sure it says anything - crunching numbers isn't my strong suite.

Jeffrey
02-21-2017, 05:38 PM
I do think he had a "switch turning on" moment. But I don't think it has anything to do with his stats. I think the switch turning on was either after the State game and Coach K meeting or after the first Wake game. And it had to do with his effort defensively. Especially in transition. Prior to the Wake game, and including the State game, Tatum would frequently loaf after offensive possessions. Especially on possessions when he would take a driving layup. That failure to get back defensively hurt our defense. I haven't seen that nearly as much since the Coach K meeting.


Do you believe Luke and Grayson were playing better D than Jayson during this period? If the coaches agreed with your assessment, then why wasn't Jayson benched when Luke and Grayson were?

What was so bad about Jayson's play during the State game? Jayson lead the team in boards (9), lead the team in blocks (2), played the second most minutes (31), was the second highest scorer (16), made 50% of his shots (7-14), had 3 assists and 1 steal. I do not think 8 defensive rebounds, 2 blocks, and 1 steal, while picking up only 3 fouls, is bad D.

IMO, for a freshman, Jayson's play has been solid and rather consistent. I believe his play has been at least as consistent as Grayson's, a junior, who was most people's preseason NPOY.

vick
02-21-2017, 05:59 PM
Since K's return, how has the shots been distributed ? Seems that (IMO) Grayson, and Luke have been getting more, but Tatum has been more selective - thus more successful.

I get 22% of shots for Tatum since the Pitt game vs. his average of 26% for the season. Observationally, it does appear he is taking fewer fadeaway jumpers. I do think there's a sprinkling of random chance, plus the fact that he wasn't playing nearly as poorly as some people on this board thought even before K's return.

FerryFor50
02-21-2017, 06:12 PM
Tatum is also looking for his teammates more. Earlier in the season, he either was trying to do too much on his own on offense (probably out of habit from HS) or he would look only for Harry Giles in some cases.

He's now spreading the ball around more in general, even when he'd have an easy shot. There was one game when he had a fast break and could have taken a 1 on 1 layup against a smaller defender. Instead, he kicked it out to a wide open Grayson Allen for a made 3.

Those are the little things he's done to make the team better overall.

BandAlum83
02-21-2017, 06:19 PM
I'm not sure effort was ever Tatum's issue but more of a focus thing. He seemed to spend to much time complaining about a missed call instead of getting back on defense. Recently he doesn't seem to have nearly as many or as bad of reactions to how the game is being called as he did for a stretch earlier in the season. My guess is that as a star high school player he used to get the benefit of the doubt a lot from refs but not so much now that he is in college and this was an adjustment for him. Maybe the coaches or his teammate said something to him or maybe the coaches made a video to illustrate the point like they did Hurley, IDK but he seems to have a much better "next play" attitude recently. Of course winning may be part of the reason for that.

I do agree that I haven't seen as huge of difference in his game as some seem to. He hasn't taken as many fade away jumpers but I'm not sure that any of his isolation 3's against UVA were really "good" shots other than that they went in. We will have to see if his recent 3 point % is for real or a blip but hopefully he will continue to grow with the rest of the team and chemistry will keep growing (along with many more wins). Now we just need to figure out how to get Giles and Bolden to more productive minutes to ad better balance to the team.

I wrote this 1/16/17 in the Louisvulle Post-Game thread:


Tatum shoots when he should pass, passes when he should drive, and drives when he should either pass or shoot.

He is extremely talented, and may very well be the best player and athlete on the floor at any given point in time if not for his decision making. He his alternately over-confident and lacking in confidence each trip down the floor which seems to impact his decision making.

On defense, I personally believe he has been outstanding. He has been disrupting the passing lanes, making steals, and getting his share of blocked or altered shots. His length has been an asset.

Like any freshman, he seems to let the officiating disrupt his focus and confidence.

As the season progresses, I believe the coaches will help him with his decision making, focus and understanding of how he fits in with the team dynamic. By post-season, I do believe Tatum will be a super scintillating diaper dandy superstar.

Just one man's opinion.

I stand by what I wrote and do believe he is learning when best to pass, drive or shoot. It has helped his shooting percentage. rebounding, and assist totals (IMO). I don't know if it was a light bulb moment or a progression, but he definitely seems to have a very steep learning curve (I posted about the meaning of leaning curve previously). So steep, I believe he is getting close to the prediction:

"By post-season, I do believe Tatum will be a super scintillating diaper dandy superstar"

Atldukie79
02-21-2017, 06:38 PM
I believe Tatum had one other specific defensive liability which he has largely erased.

He frequently missed rotations, switches and help defense opportunities. I can recall many a layup against our half court defense when Tatum was out of position or did not provide help defense. This was often followed by a rather demonstrative Amile with open palms pleading with Tatum to do his job

This deficiency is typical of a freshman and to his credit, I see fewer and fewer of these problems.

Having harped on his "problems", I think it only fair to say that he has improved on all the short comings contained in this thread. And while doing so, he is demonstrating his incredible skill and delivering results.

What fun it is to see his game progress so rapidly.

Hancock 4 Duke
02-21-2017, 10:33 PM
I've found myself yelling at the TV, "Give the damn ball to Tatum!" a lot lately, when 8 or so games ago, it was much different. Although I do believe he deserved the criticism he was getting at the time, he has definitely turned it around at a critical time. His stats stated in the OP are absolutely incredible, and I don't have a source on hand but I'd be willing to bet on his TO rate being much lower than it was at the beginning of ACC play. He's turned into a player that the defense of the opponent really needs to worry about due to his triple-threat danger, allowing Grayson and Luke to rack up more points as well (rarely do teams have more than 1 to 2 lockdown perimeter defenders). This is the most exciting turnaround I've seen in awhile, dating back to Zoub's Maryland game in the second semester of his last year.

jv001
02-22-2017, 03:45 PM
I wrote this 1/16/17 in the Louisvulle Post-Game thread:



I stand by what I wrote and do believe he is learning when best to pass, drive or shoot. It has helped his shooting percentage. rebounding, and assist totals (IMO). I don't know if it was a light bulb moment or a progression, but he definitely seems to have a very steep learning curve (I posted about the meaning of leaning curve previously). So steep, I believe he is getting close to the prediction:

"By post-season, I do believe Tatum will be a super scintillating diaper dandy superstar"

Is that you Dickie V? :cool: GoDuke!

BandAlum83
02-22-2017, 04:10 PM
[/B]

Is that you Dickie V? :cool: GoDuke!

I got my one eye on you!