Odds to Win National Championship

[mr. synellinden]

Stephen Wiseman just tweeted that Duke is now the favorite to win the national championship.

https://twitter.com/stevewisemannc/status/832616324232781824

[sagegrouse]

Stephen Wiseman just tweeted that Duke is now the favorite to win the national championship.

https://twitter.com/stevewisemannc/status/832616324232781824

Tweet has following odds from Bovada (Wiseman says):

Duke 5-1
Gonzaga 8-1
Kansas 8-1
UCLA 10-1

[gam7]

Tweet has following odds from Bovada (Wiseman says):

Duke 5-1
Gonzaga 8-1
Kansas 8-1
UCLA 10-1

This is very surprising. I think if we somehow win out, we might deserve 5-1, but not right now. I'll tell you - whatever Louisville's odds are (assuming they are less than 10-1), I'd seriously consider putting a little wager there... There are about ten other teams I'd put as more likely to win it all than UCLA, including Arizona (which will have a home final four if they make it) and Oregon from their own conference.

[subzero02]

I am not surprised that we have the best odds but I am surprised that it's only 5 to 1. I would have us at 7 to 1, Kansas and ucla seem about right... I would probably place Oregon in that same range as well. I would have the Zags at 12 to 1.

[mr. synellinden]

This is very surprising. I think if we somehow win out, we might deserve 5-1, but not right now. I'll tell you - whatever Louisville's odds are (assuming they are less than 10-1), I'd seriously consider putting a little wager there... There are about ten other teams I'd put as more likely to win it all than UCLA, including Arizona (which will have a home final four if they make it) and Oregon from their own conference.

Mark Titus weighs in (https://theringer.com/college-basketball-power-rankings-tournament-selection-committee-ab88dd0515a5#.xcfdbdl00) with his thoughts on national championship contenders. As you will see, he is high and getting higher on Duke, thinks Louisville would be his pick to win it all today, and thinks Gonzaga is the best team in the country.

[Troublemaker]

They're not going to give you the "true" odds. How they make money is by giving you bad odds.

And yes, 5 to 1 is ridiculous.

[Turk]

Good gravy, a couple weeks back everyone seemed to think the Devils were an NIT team.
Let's forget about the odds until after the ACCT. Even bracketology mocks have more value.

Win the next game.
Survive and advance.
The odds will take care of themselves.

[InSpades]

This is very surprising. I think if we somehow win out, we might deserve 5-1, but not right now. I'll tell you - whatever Louisville's odds are (assuming they are less than 10-1), I'd seriously consider putting a little wager there... There are about ten other teams I'd put as more likely to win it all than UCLA, including Arizona (which will have a home final four if they make it) and Oregon from their own conference.

UCLA's defense is ranked 132 by KenPom. The next worst defense ranked above them is UNC at 42. To say that they are a statistical outlier among the top teams is an understatement.

Of course to make up for this defense they do have the #1 offense but...

Defense wins championships and they haven't shown much interest or aptitude in playing it.

I'd much rather play UCLA than Oregon or Arizona.

[MrPoon]

This is very surprising. I think if we somehow win out, we might deserve 5-1, but not right now. I'll tell you - whatever Louisville's odds are (assuming they are less than 10-1), I'd seriously consider putting a little wager there... There are about ten other teams I'd put as more likely to win it all than UCLA, including Arizona (which will have a home final four if they make it) and Oregon from their own conference.

I'm not a person good at placing a number to these (5-1 vs 7-1) but I read this as saying; there aren't a lot of teams that appear to have the "chops" to win this thing. Some good teams, some really good freshman on a lot of okay teams, but teams with reall flaws. Duke is increasingly looking as one of the teams with the least amount of pimples at the dance. If we can start getting even a little scoring out of Giles in the post (8-10 ish points) as the matchups warrant. Look out. It would take a deep, athletic team (dribble drive) with good outside scoring AND offensive depth at the post to be a real concern. I'd say UNC but they have Roy so ...:cool:

[OldPhiKap]

Duke will win the National Championship. But that's still sucker's odds based on our name more than anything else I suspect.

7:1 or 8:1 might tempt me. Even then, there is a big field with no dominant team but a pool of very capable teams. Duke included.

No team should be 5:1 this year as best I can tell.

[Atlanta Duke]

5Dimes, an offshore site to which I refer for informational purposes only, has these odds as of this afternoon

Gonzaga +700
Kansas +850
Duke +900
UCLA +1000
Villanova +1000
Kentucky +1200
North Carolina +1200

No question Duke is a team on the rise for the wagering public

[NashvilleDevil]

Alford is still the UCLA coach right? His teams seem to underperform when it matters. I have not understood the UCLA love this year and I'm not completely sold on Ball being a franchise player in the NBA. Could someone who watches the Pac-12 enlighten me? Thanks

[rasputin]

Alford is still the UCLA coach right? His teams seem to underperform when it matters. I have not understood the UCLA love this year and I'm not completely sold on Ball being a franchise player in the NBA. Could someone who watches the Pac-12 enlighten me? Thanks

"Someone who watches the Pac-12" is too stoned to do that.

[El_Diablo]

What is this "Pac-12"? Do you mean "Conference of Champions" perhaps?

[mr. synellinden]

Alford is still the UCLA coach right? His teams seem to underperform when it matters. I have not understood the UCLA love this year and I'm not completely sold on Ball being a franchise player in the NBA. Could someone who watches the Pac-12 enlighten me? Thanks

I've seen UCLA play about 6 or 7 times this season, including twice in person. Ball is very much the real deal in my opinion. You really have to see him play to appreciate how he influences a game and does things to give his team a chance to win. This is really such a cliche, but there are few players about which I can say I've believed it's more true: Ball is just a winner. He is willing to do whatever his team needs to win. It might be scoring, it might be defense, it might be controlling the tempo. He knows when the team needs a boost and what it needs. You could watch the last 8 minutes of the UCLA-Oregon game from last week and you will see what I am talking about. Alford put Ball on Dillon Brooks and Ball just shut him down as UCLA made an incredible comeback. Then with about two minutes left he made an incredible drive to the basket and an about 35 foot 3 pointer to seal the game for UCLA. The 3 pointer was just the epitome of what we like to call "a dagger". Highlights including that last 3 here (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-02-10/ucla-vs-oregon-lonzo-ball-takes-over-second-half-bruins-rally) and here (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400915666). But please watch this highlight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joNe20F-wek) from Ball at about the 8:20 mark of this video - this was the play of the game to me and shows the incredible talent. Also check out his step back 3 pointer at about the 7:08 mark of that highlight video. He is much more athletic than he looks and has Jason Kidd-like vision and ability to impose his will on the game. He will be the first or second pick in the draft for good reason. Think Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd with an outside shot. Deron Williams isn't a bad NBA comp for him. When he puts on a little more muscle he is going to be very hard for NBA point guards to handle.

When it comes to the NCAA tournament, teams with guards like Ball often succeed because they do the most to get the team a good shot or to the FT line. I know the UCLA kenpom defensive rating is atrocious, but if you watch them, you will see that when they want to turn up the defense they can. They absolutely shut down Oregon in the second half last week, holding them to 31 points. That shows me they can play excellent defense when they want to. Their win over Kentucky on the road is one of the best wins any team has this season, and their two best players are lottery picks. There is a lot of NBA talent on the roster and I think they will play defense in the tourney. If you gave me 4 teams to pick this year for the national title besides Duke, UCLA would be one of them, along with Villanova, Arizona and Kansas.

[Fish80]

Bet the ranch. We gonna win out!

[WVDUKEFAN]

I really like our chances. I'm going to like them better in another month, barring any injuries to our team. We are going to get good.

[weezie]

Good gravy, a couple weeks back everyone seemed to think the Devils were an NIT team.
Let's forget about the odds until after the ACCT. Even bracketology mocks have more value.

Win the next game.
Survive and advance.
The odds will take care of themselves.

Sheeeesh, AMEN. This thread makes me nervous.

[Listen to Quants]

I've seen UCLA play about 6 or 7 times this season, including twice in person. Ball is very much the real deal in my opinion. You really have to see him play to appreciate how he influences a game and does things to give his team a chance to win. This is really such a cliche, but there are few players about which I can say I've believed it's more true: Ball is just a winner. He is willing to do whatever his team needs to win. It might be scoring, it might be defense, it might be controlling the tempo. He knows when the team needs a boost and what it needs. You could watch the last 8 minutes of the UCLA-Oregon game from last week and you will see what I am talking about. Alford put Ball on Dillon Brooks and Ball just shut him down as UCLA made an incredible comeback. Then with about two minutes left he made an incredible drive to the basket and an about 35 foot 3 pointer to seal the game for UCLA. The 3 pointer was just the epitome of what we like to call "a dagger". Highlights including that last 3 here (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-02-10/ucla-vs-oregon-lonzo-ball-takes-over-second-half-bruins-rally) and here (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400915666). But please watch this highlight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joNe20F-wek) from Ball at about the 8:20 mark of this video - this was the play of the game to me and shows the incredible talent. Also check out his step back 3 pointer at about the 7:08 mark of that highlight video. He is much more athletic than he looks and has Jason Kidd-like vision and ability to impose his will on the game. He will be the first or second pick in the draft for good reason. Think Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd with an outside shot. Deron Williams isn't a bad NBA comp for him. When he puts on a little more muscle he is going to be very hard for NBA point guards to handle.

When it comes to the NCAA tournament, teams with guards like Ball often succeed because they do the most to get the team a good shot or to the FT line. I know the UCLA kenpom defensive rating is atrocious, but if you watch them, you will see that when they want to turn up the defense they can. They absolutely shut down Oregon in the second half last week, holding them to 31 points. That shows me they can play excellent defense when they want to. Their win over Kentucky on the road is one of the best wins any team has this season, and their two best players are lottery picks. There is a lot of NBA talent on the roster and I think they will play defense in the tourney. If you gave me 4 teams to pick this year for the national title besides Duke, UCLA would be one of them, along with Villanova, Arizona and Kansas.

So, Mr. Synellinden, how do you like the Matt Jones blanket deflating the Ball? I've only seen Ball in the first Oregon game and he did look good overall, but not lightning fast. Some think that puts him into Jones's defensive wheelhouse. Not that UCLA-Duke is a likely match up, but I'm interested regardless.

[uh_no]

They absolutely shut down Oregon in the second half last week, holding them to 31 points.

I'm not sure I'd call 31 points in a very slow half "absolutely shutting down" someone. Per SCACC, oregon had 29.2 possessions in the second half, giving them a 106.1 efficiency. It was on the whole, a very average half defensively.

Would I be largely satisfied with that against oregon for a half? Sure....but given they gave up 48 points in the first half, I'm not sure I'd be writing home about how we set the bar so low that we looked great after halftime.

[Troublemaker]

I've seen UCLA play about 6 or 7 times this season, including twice in person. Ball is very much the real deal in my opinion. You really have to see him play to appreciate how he influences a game and does things to give his team a chance to win. This is really such a cliche, but there are few players about which I can say I've believed it's more true: Ball is just a winner. He is willing to do whatever his team needs to win. It might be scoring, it might be defense, it might be controlling the tempo. He knows when the team needs a boost and what it needs. You could watch the last 8 minutes of the UCLA-Oregon game from last week and you will see what I am talking about. Alford put Ball on Dillon Brooks and Ball just shut him down as UCLA made an incredible comeback. Then with about two minutes left he made an incredible drive to the basket and an about 35 foot 3 pointer to seal the game for UCLA. The 3 pointer was just the epitome of what we like to call "a dagger". Highlights including that last 3 here (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-02-10/ucla-vs-oregon-lonzo-ball-takes-over-second-half-bruins-rally) and here (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400915666). But please watch this highlight (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joNe20F-wek) from Ball at about the 8:20 mark of this video - this was the play of the game to me and shows the incredible talent. Also check out his step back 3 pointer at about the 7:08 mark of that highlight video. He is much more athletic than he looks and has Jason Kidd-like vision and ability to impose his will on the game. He will be the first or second pick in the draft for good reason. Think Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd with an outside shot. Deron Williams isn't a bad NBA comp for him. When he puts on a little more muscle he is going to be very hard for NBA point guards to handle.

When it comes to the NCAA tournament, teams with guards like Ball often succeed because they do the most to get the team a good shot or to the FT line. I know the UCLA kenpom defensive rating is atrocious, but if you watch them, you will see that when they want to turn up the defense they can. They absolutely shut down Oregon in the second half last week, holding them to 31 points. That shows me they can play excellent defense when they want to. Their win over Kentucky on the road is one of the best wins any team has this season, and their two best players are lottery picks. There is a lot of NBA talent on the roster and I think they will play defense in the tourney. If you gave me 4 teams to pick this year for the national title besides Duke, UCLA would be one of them, along with Villanova, Arizona and Kansas.

I largely agree. Maybe we're wrong, but I definitely don't want to see UCLA in Duke's bracket. Good post, mr. synellinden

[Troublemaker]

5Dimes, an offshore site to which I refer for informational purposes only, has these odds as of this afternoon

Gonzaga +700
Kansas +850
Duke +900
UCLA +1000
Villanova +1000
Kentucky +1200
North Carolina +1200

No question Duke is a team on the rise for the wagering public

That's one of the reasons the 5 to 1 is so bad. You can get 9 to 1 elsewhere. (And THOSE books are trying to make money, too...).

[WVDUKEFAN]

That's one of the reasons the 5 to 1 is so bad. You can get 9 to 1 elsewhere. (And THOSE books are trying to make money, too...).

Which team really concerns you at this point as a matchup problem for us?

[davekay1971]

All due respect to Vegas, but I'd like to get through the next game without major injuries. The next practice would be nice, frankly...

[mr. synellinden]

I'm not sure I'd call 31 points in a very slow half "absolutely shutting down" someone. Per SCACC, oregon had 29.2 possessions in the second half, giving them a 106.1 efficiency. It was on the whole, a very average half defensively.

Would I be largely satisfied with that against oregon for a half? Sure...but given they gave up 48 points in the first half, I'm not sure I'd be writing home about how we set the bar so low that we looked great after halftime.

Objectively, that's a fair point, but you had to see the game to understand. Oregon scored 12 points in the last 12 minutes. With 12:00 left in the game, they had 67 points and finished with 79. It was like a light went on defensively for UCLA and they decided to play hard. Ball has a tendency to do that himself, and as I mentioned, he shut down Brooks who is the key player for Oregon. Ball appears to coast and seem uninterested at times - the first half of the Oregon game was a perfect example - he had a terrible half. It's almost like he knows he can turn it on when he wants/needs to and doesn't have a care in the world because he knows he can take over the game at any time. So maybe it's more fair to say, they absolutely shut down Oregon in the last 12 minutes of the second half


So, Mr. Synellinden, how do you like the Matt Jones blanket deflating the Ball? I've only seen Ball in the first Oregon game and he did look good overall, but not lightning fast. Some think that puts him into Jones's defensive wheelhouse. Not that UCLA-Duke is a likely match up, but I'm interested regardless.

If Matt is completely healthy, I like it a lot. Matt is the kind of defender that could give Ball trouble because of his height. What makes Ball difficult to defend is that he is very tall for a point guard and can shoot over people - and he can really shoot it out to 25 feet (or 35 in some cases, for real). Plus, even though he is not lightning fast like some other guards that sometimes give us trouble, he is very quick off the dribble and is excellent at driving to the basket and finishing. I'd say he's deceptively quick. Check out the highlight I posted previously at the 8:25 mark. That is just an incredible drive and finish and a play that even some guys in the NBA can't make. He also is a great finisher, again because of his height, and because he can jump AND because he's so smart about knowing how to use his body in the available space. So Matt is going to need some team defense help because you have to play out on Ball almost anywhere he is in the front court and he can beat anyone off the dribble. I mean, the guy is shooting 55% from the field and 43% from 3 point range. That is insane for a guard. Plus he averages 6 rebounds, 7.6 assists and almost 2 steals a game. As might be obvious, I am very high on him. And to be honest, the first time I saw him play, I had the same reaction as a previous poster - I didn't see what the hype was and didn't think he'd be a star in the NBA. Now I see it.

If Duke were to face UCLA, I would love to see a mix of Frank and Matt guarding Ball. You kind of have to pick your poison a bit with him and a mix of quick on the ball defense from Frank and Matt's defensive fundamentals and height might keep him out of rhythm.

[Pghdukie]

It doesn't matter the odds. Just win your last game of the season !

[MrPoon]

After playing pinball for much of the ACC season, I have a feeling GA and Luke would welcome some PAC 12 style D. Ball is truely an exceptional talent but UCLA would have to find a stop on a few plays against perhaps the most efficient offense they've seen. Tatum and Luke would love the open space a D like UCLA offers. Not to mention GA. Having seen both, AZ has a better chance to make a run... my 2c.

[Neals384]

Ball appears to coast and seem uninterested at times

Just what NBA GMs and coaches are looking for - a guy who plays hard...sometimes. Come to think of it, if we play UCLA in the tourney, I'd be happy to have Ball coast for a half, thinking he can take Matt anytime.