MBB: Duke at UVA (Wed 2/15, 9:00pm ET, ESPN2) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Please put your thoughts in here.

Migrating some posts over:


2OT VA loss to Tech

VA had nothing at the end.
http://www.gobblercountry.com/2017/2/12/14593936/virginia-tech-outlasts-12-virginia-in-double-ot-80-78

I wonder if they'll be a little low on fuel on Wed.


Yes, UVA has an excellent defense and beat Louisville rather easily. I believe Tony Bennett is one of the top 5 coaches in the league and his teams are always competitive. The next game we face them on the road and they are more highly rated. they match up pretty well with us so it should be a real test. I hope that Grayson's ankle will be close to normal because we will need him.

Virginia will put experienced guards against us with Marial Shayak and London Ferrantes and Devon Hall playing minutes. Don't know who Matt will defend. Enough of this, I will save it for the pregame thread with UVA.


Paging Mr. Perrantes, you have a call from a Mr. M. Jones. A call from Mr. M. Jones. He'd like to introduce himself...

[Troublemaker]

Replying to the above migrated posts...

I think UVA will be fine for Wednesday despite the 2OT loss. They have a full 72 hours to recover; game ended ~9pm tonight and Duke-UVA will tip ~9pm Wednesday.

Yes, I think Matt will be assigned leading scorer Perrantes.
(1) Perrantes is a really good player but not a cat-quick PG, so I think Matt can handle it.
(2) Perrantes goes off the ball a lot to score.

[Fish80]

We need to dissect the second half. VT figured out how to score on the cavalier wahoos.

[fan345678]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

[fisheyes]

FIFY:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

That was an awesome game.

It will take the same effort.

Can it be done?

Ozzie?

Ozzie?

YES WE CAN!!!

[uh_no]

oh yeah...and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8DO-HfmfiA

[MrPoon]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

Boy was that awesome! Miss watching Winslow, just an agresive style that exploded off the screen (and in person, saw that team three times including final!). Then you have T Stones. Wow, thanks for reminding me. Feels longer than two years ago.

Devil's aren't as good as that group... yet. But I don't think VA is as good as that version either. Probably a similar, close game, hopefully the same result.

I've only watched the two OTs and a few other halves of VA this year but they are even less dynamic on offense then past years. I thought VTech attacked really well into the key off the dribble which is Luke's specialty and I think Tatum's more efficient version of late can find some gaps. Plus some nice kick outs. Rebounding will be important as always. Very optimistic on this one but will require a patient effort on D. VA will fall in the rankings after this loss but I still think they are over ranked and a win here will help Duke's seeding and perception. Need that signature road win. This will be it.

Convinced that Jones is on a roll and he will have another shot at player of the game for those watching closely. Oh, and I've predicted a big game from Giles for every one of the games in this streak so I'll do it again (even though it has yet to happen).

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[Troublemaker]

As one of the 12-6ers in the "Predict Duke's ACC Record" thread, I counted this game as a loss but, of course, would be thrilled if Duke could pull off a W. Truth be told, I didn't put gigantic thought into deciding it was a loss. It was just a gut feeling of "This isn't 2015." Something we were already reminded of when Duke lost at Louisville.

This version of UVA maybe matches up a little bit better with Duke than previous versions. We'll get to that later.

But first... typically a generic Duke team matches up well with a generic UVA team for a number of reasons:

(1) On offense, UVA typically relies less on driving the ball than other teams. They rely more on using two traditional bigs to run around and set off-ball screens to free UVA's shooters, and they call this "Blocker/Mover" offense. As a program, Duke excels at guarding off the ball and less so guarding on the ball. So UVA's preference plays into Duke's strength.

(2) On defense, UVA will allow you to shoot 3s and rely on good closeouts to lower the shooting percentage. Duke recruits great shooters who are less bothered by closeouts. For example, we've played them 4 times ever since they leveled up to become a great program in 2014. In those 4 games, Duke shot a combined 32-75 (or 43%) from three and won 3 out of 4 games (although the loss was a big one, an ACC Championship Game in which Duke still shot 8-14 from three). I'd be surprised if any ACC program has shot as well against them since 2014. Of course, there is a lot of luck involved with shooting percentages, and we very well could have a bad shooting day on Wednesday. Who knows.

(3) UVA is less likely to punish Duke in transition, as they prefer to slow it down and use a lot of shot clock.

(4) UVA is typically not a strong offensive rebounding team; they focus on getting back in transition. Finally, UVA typically is not strong at drawing fouls; this is related to them being less of a driving team.

In a later post, I'll give some thoughts on why this UVA team might match up better with this Duke team than usual.

[Troublemaker]

Since Tony Bennett arrived at UVA, the Hoos are:

2-8 against Duke, including the aforementioned 1-3 since 2014.

5-6 against UNC, including 3-2 since 2014.

5-1 against Louisville. (The Cardinals joined the conference in 2015).

Those are the ACC's elite programs (although UNC could be moving out of the neighborhood soon depending on NCAA action), so it's maybe good/interesting to pay attention to how well they're playing each other.

From Duke's perspective, I like how we match up against all three of UNC, UVA, and Lville. We've won 12 of the past 16 against UNC, and even though we're only 2-2 so far against Louisville, I bet we'll end up on the positive side as more games are played since the Cardinals like to play 2 bigs together.

[budwom]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

LOL, I think that was the game where UVA led most of the way, and Bilas spent about two hours shouting "Virginia Will Strangle You," and
then they lost.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

FIFY:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

That was an awesome game.

It will take the same effort.

Can it be done?

Ozzie?

Ozzie?

YES WE CAN!!!
Our current roster compares very favorably with that one. Grayson and Luke as Q and Ty, Jayson as Justice, Matt as, well, Matt and Amile as Amile! Frank Jackson combines shooting and athleticism, but not necessarily the power, of Justice.

If we shoot well, we'll win. If we don't, it gets a bit dicey, but we'll still win! LGD GTHc!

[CDu]

UVa is doing what UVa does: being as good or better than the sum of their parts. They are an elite defense (#3 in the country). They play glacially slow (#350 of 351 in tempo). They are pretty good on offense too (#17). Just a well-oiled machine being run by Bennett up there.

Frontcourt: UVa plays most of the game with two bigs on the floor, although they aren't a terribly big team. Wilkins (6'7", 225lb junior) is the key to their interior defense (well, that along with the pack line approach). His stats don't wow you, but he's an extremely effective and versatile defender. Salt (6'11", 245lb redshirt soph from Australia) is the other starter. But he's only a nominal starter. He plays about 15-20 mpg. He's mostly a big body who commits fouls almost as much as he gets points or rebounds. But, he serves his role. Off the bench, the Cavs have a pair of talented players. Reuter (6'7", 245lb soph) is a rugged big with a decent shooting touch. He only gets about 10 mpg. The only other big is Diakite (6'9", 215lb redshirt frosh from Guinea). Diakite is a lanky, athletic kid who is not afraid to shoot jumpers, and can block shots (1.3 blocks per 13 mpg). But, like Reuter, he plays fairly sparingly. None of the bigs have wildly impressive individual stats, but they are efficient and effective inside. The quartet combines for about 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3.5 bpg. The Cavs will also spend 5-10 mpg with a SF at PF.

Wings: The Cavs are a REALLY deep team, and it shows most evidently on the wings. They have a ton of semi-interchangeable parts. The starters are Shayok (6'5, 195lb junior) and Hall (6'5", 205lb redshirt junior). Shayok is extremely athletic, high-volume shooter on the wing. He was a really good 3pt shooter his first two years (over 40% combined), but has struggled with his shot this year (32%). He isn't a high-volume 3pt shooter, though, so that is less of a concern. Still he can hit it if left open (that is going to be a recurring theme). Hall has become a stud this year. He's sort of a poor man's Brogdon: excellent 3pt shooter, strong, physical defender, solid ballhandler. He will do his fair share with the ball in his hands. Behind those two are Darius Thompson (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from Tennessee) and Kyle Guy (6'3", 165lb frosh). Thompson is a solid ballhandler and defender, and has developed into a capable shooter too. Guy is sort of the anti-UVa guy: he's a flashy, all-offense player who is having to learn to play on the other end. But he's an incredibly dynamic scorer, shooting 48.5% from 3. He only plays about 15-20 mpg, but he gets his shots up for sure (leads the team in FGA per minute).

PGs: Perrantes (6'2", 195lb senior) is the man running the show. He's a steady senior 4-year starter. Perrantes historically has been a good, if reluctant, shooter. This year, he's being asked to take on a bit more of the scoring burden thanks to the departures over the years. He's been great, shooting 40% from three and leading the team in points and assists. And, of course, he's terrific defensively. Perrantes also contributes on the glass, averaging 3 rpg. He will play 30+ mpg. Jerome (6'5", 190lb frosh) is the backup PG. He's a big, steady PG who can shoot it and is the heir apparent to Perrantes. Jerome had been playing fairly sparingly, but his role has increased to the point that he's playing 15-20 mpg most of the time now.

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

From that perspective, we matchup reasonably well. They aren't going to blow by us off the dribble like State did or Tech or others have done. They also don't pound the offensive glass either. They will still be an dangerous offense, but hopefully our two biggest weaknesses on defense don't get exposed too much. On the other end, they will make it tough for guys like Tatum and Allen to drive into the lane. They will make it tough on Kennard too, but Kennard doesn't drive in the same manner as Allen and Tatum (he's more patient in his drives). We'll need to hit our 3s, because they'll allow some looks. But it is going to be a battle.

[Sir Stealth]

In the ACC it's amazing how much teams tend to have the same feel year to year despite player turnover. Every time we play UNC, the number one thing I look for/worry about is will we get back on defense and prevent transition.

Against UVA, a big part of the game always seems to be how much we can overcome the UVA's physical defense and the inevitable clutching and grabbing of our players as they try to move on offense. With the yo-yoing ACC refs it's anybody's guess how much this will be allowed. If it is allowed, it will be a good test for Luke and Grayson to see how much they can overcome it and still get open. Would really like to see Grayson looking agile and healthy on that ankle.

With UVA on a losing streak playing at home and Duke on a winning streak (and looking tired last game), it feels like UVA may just be hungrier for the win in what would already have been a very tough game. If Duke is able to pull this out I will be very impressed on a number of levels.

[Troublemaker]

In a later post, I'll give some thoughts on why this UVA team might match up better with this Duke team than usual.

This season, UVA goes to a 4-guard lineup somewhat frequently. For example, according to kenpom($), in the past 5 games, UVA spent 40% of the time playing either Devon Hall or Marial Shayok at the "4". How well Duke plays against UVA's 4-guard lineup will decide the game. Sometimes we've performed admirably against smallball (e.g. Rhode Island, Notre Dame) and sometimes we've struggled (e.g. VaTech, Clemson).

If anyone saw the UVA / VPI game last night, you saw that down the stretch UVA went small and played a very un-UVA like offense. Perrantes would repeatedly run a ball screen and get a Hokie big man to switch onto him, and then Perrantes would take him 1-on-1 to the basket for a layup or foul. Will Duke handle this better than VPI did?

The second thing that's different about this UVA team is how often their defense is forcing turnovers. Prior to this season, Tony Bennett had never had a top-100 defense at forcing turnovers. This season? They are 38th in the country and 2nd in the conference behind Florida St. at forcing turnovers.

And that usually wouldn't even be a major concern, except that THIS Duke team has had turnover issues in conference play, which I've mentioned before. I could easily see our guys making poor passes and decisions against the Pack Line, including overpenetrating and getting stripped by a Pack wing.

So, here would be my keys to the game:
(1) Defending UVA's 4-guard lineup well, if they decide to give up Blocker/Mover and just spread Duke out and drive.
(2) Limiting turnovers against the Pack Line. Make the right pass at the right time. When UVA is locked in on defense, it'll feel like you can only get one penetrating dribble before they've collapsed on you. Be prepared to do one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick.
(3) Making a good percentage of our threes.

I expect a loss because I think one or more of those things will break down.

[Troublemaker]

In the ACC it's amazing how much teams tend to have the same feel year to year despite player turnover. Every time we play UNC, the number one thing I look for/worry about is will we get back on defense and prevent transition.

Against UVA, a big part of the game always seems to be how much we can overcome the UVA's physical defense and the inevitable clutching and grabbing of our players as they try to move on offense. With the yo-yoing ACC refs it's anybody's guess how much this will be allowed. If it is allowed, it will be a good test for Luke and Grayson to see how much they can overcome it and still get open. Would really like to see Grayson looking agile and healthy on that ankle.

With UVA on a losing streak playing at home and Duke on a winning streak (and looking tired last game), it feels like UVA may just be hungrier for the win in what would already have been a very tough game. If Duke is able to pull this out I will be very impressed on a number of levels.

Duke will be the biggest underdog that it's been this season.

FSU was favored by 1.5.
Louisville was favored by 3.5.

My guess is that UVA will be favored by 5.5.

[Spanarkel]

UVa is doing what UVa does: being as good or better than the sum of their parts. They are an elite defense (#3 in the country). They play glacially slow (#350 of 351 in tempo). They are pretty good on offense too (#17). Just a well-oiled machine being run by Bennett up there.

Frontcourt: UVa plays most of the game with two bigs on the floor, although they aren't a terribly big team. Wilkins (6'7", 225lb junior) is the key to their interior defense (well, that along with the pack line approach). His stats don't wow you, but he's an extremely effective and versatile defender. Salt (6'11", 245lb redshirt soph from Australia) is the other starter. But he's only a nominal starter. He plays about 15-20 mpg. He's mostly a big body who commits fouls almost as much as he gets points or rebounds. But, he serves his role. Off the bench, the Cavs have a pair of talented players. Reuter (6'7", 245lb soph) is a rugged big with a decent shooting touch. He only gets about 10 mpg. The only other big is Diakite (6'9", 215lb redshirt frosh from Guinea). Diakite is a lanky, athletic kid who is not afraid to shoot jumpers, and can block shots (1.3 blocks per 13 mpg). But, like Reuter, he plays fairly sparingly. None of the bigs have wildly impressive individual stats, but they are efficient and effective inside. The quartet combines for about 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3.5 bpg. The Cavs will also spend 5-10 mpg with a SF at PF.

Wings: The Cavs are a REALLY deep team, and it shows most evidently on the wings. They have a ton of semi-interchangeable parts. The starters are Shayok (6'5, 195lb junior) and Hall (6'5", 205lb redshirt junior). Shayok is extremely athletic, high-volume shooter on the wing. He was a really good 3pt shooter his first two years (over 40% combined), but has struggled with his shot this year (32%). He isn't a high-volume 3pt shooter, though, so that is less of a concern. Still he can hit it if left open (that is going to be a recurring theme). Hall has become a stud this year. He's sort of a poor man's Brogdon: excellent 3pt shooter, strong, physical defender, solid ballhandler. He will do his fair share with the ball in his hands. Behind those two are Darius Thompson (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from Tennessee) and Kyle Guy (6'3", 165lb frosh). Thompson is a solid ballhandler and defender, and has developed into a capable shooter too. Guy is sort of the anti-UVa guy: he's a flashy, all-offense player who is having to learn to play on the other end. But he's an incredibly dynamic scorer, shooting 48.5% from 3. He only plays about 15-20 mpg, but he gets his shots up for sure (leads the team in FGA per minute).

PGs: Perrantes (6'2", 195lb senior) is the man running the show. He's a steady senior 4-year starter. Perrantes historically has been a good, if reluctant, shooter. This year, he's being asked to take on a bit more of the scoring burden thanks to the departures over the years. He's been great, shooting 40% from three and leading the team in points and assists. And, of course, he's terrific defensively. Perrantes also contributes on the glass, averaging 3 rpg. He will play 30+ mpg. Jerome (6'5", 190lb frosh) is the backup PG. He's a big, steady PG who can shoot it and is the heir apparent to Perrantes. Jerome had been playing fairly sparingly, but his role has increased to the point that he's playing 15-20 mpg most of the time now.

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

From that perspective, we matchup reasonably well. They aren't going to blow by us off the dribble like State did or Tech or others have done. They also don't pound the offensive glass either. They will still be an dangerous offense, but hopefully our two biggest weaknesses on defense don't get exposed too much. On the other end, they will make it tough for guys like Tatum and Allen to drive into the lane. They will make it tough on Kennard too, but Kennard doesn't drive in the same manner as Allen and Tatum (he's more patient in his drives). We'll need to hit our 3s, because they'll allow some looks. But it is going to be a battle.

Excellent summary/analysis, CDu! Not to nitpick, but Salt hails from New Zealand, and IMO Guy is a better athlete than I have seen him given credit for. I saw him play several times when I lived in Indiana, and his vertical may exceed 40"(hope we don't see it on Wednesday!). Let's go, Duke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

This is a great writeup, CDu. Some stats to add to the rebounding discussion: UVA is an excellent defensive rebounding team, pulling in 79.3% of available defensive rebounds. That's 5th in the country. But they are not nearly as good at offensive rebounding. Limiting second chance points is going to go quite a ways to competing with UVA. Despite being painfully slow on offense, UVA is incredibly efficient, ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage and 9th in 2 point shooting percentage. Duke is pretty good in half-court defense, which plays into the team's defensive strengths. We close out on shooters and won't be facing a size disadvantage. Keeping the game inside the arc in the halfcourt on defense will be incredibly important. Getting those defensive boards will keep them limited to one shot opportunities, further limiting their offensive efficiency.

[CDu]

Excellent summary/analysis, CDu! Not to nitpick, but Salt hails from New Zealand, and IMO Guy is a better athlete than I have seen him given credit for. I saw him play several times when I lived in Indiana, and his vertical may exceed 40"(hope we don't see it on Wednesday!). Let's go, Duke!

Doh! You're right. Eh, Australia, New Zealand, six of one, half dozen of the other, right? :confused:

[Indoor66]

Doh! You're right. Eh, Australia, New Zealand, six of one, half dozen of the other, right? :confused:

What the heck is a few thousand miles?😈😎

[Highlander]

Two years ago, the road game at Virginia was when we knew...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/pc2UJBOc2dM

I still cannot bring myself to delete this game from my DVR.

[jhmoss1812]

UVa is doing what UVa does: being as good or better than the sum of their parts. They are an elite defense (#3 in the country). They play glacially slow (#350 of 351 in tempo). They are pretty good on offense too (#17). Just a well-oiled machine being run by Bennett up there.

Frontcourt: UVa plays most of the game with two bigs on the floor, although they aren't a terribly big team. Wilkins (6'7", 225lb junior) is the key to their interior defense (well, that along with the pack line approach). His stats don't wow you, but he's an extremely effective and versatile defender. Salt (6'11", 245lb redshirt soph from Australia) is the other starter. But he's only a nominal starter. He plays about 15-20 mpg. He's mostly a big body who commits fouls almost as much as he gets points or rebounds. But, he serves his role. Off the bench, the Cavs have a pair of talented players. Reuter (6'7", 245lb soph) is a rugged big with a decent shooting touch. He only gets about 10 mpg. The only other big is Diakite (6'9", 215lb redshirt frosh from Guinea). Diakite is a lanky, athletic kid who is not afraid to shoot jumpers, and can block shots (1.3 blocks per 13 mpg). But, like Reuter, he plays fairly sparingly. None of the bigs have wildly impressive individual stats, but they are efficient and effective inside. The quartet combines for about 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3.5 bpg. The Cavs will also spend 5-10 mpg with a SF at PF.

Wings: The Cavs are a REALLY deep team, and it shows most evidently on the wings. They have a ton of semi-interchangeable parts. The starters are Shayok (6'5, 195lb junior) and Hall (6'5", 205lb redshirt junior). Shayok is extremely athletic, high-volume shooter on the wing. He was a really good 3pt shooter his first two years (over 40% combined), but has struggled with his shot this year (32%). He isn't a high-volume 3pt shooter, though, so that is less of a concern. Still he can hit it if left open (that is going to be a recurring theme). Hall has become a stud this year. He's sort of a poor man's Brogdon: excellent 3pt shooter, strong, physical defender, solid ballhandler. He will do his fair share with the ball in his hands. Behind those two are Darius Thompson (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from Tennessee) and Kyle Guy (6'3", 165lb frosh). Thompson is a solid ballhandler and defender, and has developed into a capable shooter too. Guy is sort of the anti-UVa guy: he's a flashy, all-offense player who is having to learn to play on the other end. But he's an incredibly dynamic scorer, shooting 48.5% from 3. He only plays about 15-20 mpg, but he gets his shots up for sure (leads the team in FGA per minute).

PGs: Perrantes (6'2", 195lb senior) is the man running the show. He's a steady senior 4-year starter. Perrantes historically has been a good, if reluctant, shooter. This year, he's being asked to take on a bit more of the scoring burden thanks to the departures over the years. He's been great, shooting 40% from three and leading the team in points and assists. And, of course, he's terrific defensively. Perrantes also contributes on the glass, averaging 3 rpg. He will play 30+ mpg. Jerome (6'5", 190lb frosh) is the backup PG. He's a big, steady PG who can shoot it and is the heir apparent to Perrantes. Jerome had been playing fairly sparingly, but his role has increased to the point that he's playing 15-20 mpg most of the time now.

UVa is not an overly flashy team. They grind it out in the half court. They don't allow shots in the paint, but they also contest on the perimeter. They don't allow a ton of offensive rebounds either. On the other end, they don't get a ton of offensive rebounds, focusing instead on getting good looks and avoiding transition chances. They don't force many turnovers and they don't commit many turnovers. They want every possession to be a battle, and are not at all afraid to play defense for 25+ seconds each trip down. On offense, they are very deep, with a variety of good shooters. Everyone takes good shots, and virtually all of their perimeter guys are strong shooters. They aren't a very quick team, though. Shayok is probably their most athletic perimeter player, but he isn't a strong ballhandler. Hall, Thompson, Perantes, Guy, and Jerome are capable ballhandlers but not overly explosive athletes. So they run their offense, get a lot of midrange jumpers and threes, and occasionally get the easy look near the basket with good ball movement.

From that perspective, we matchup reasonably well. They aren't going to blow by us off the dribble like State did or Tech or others have done. They also don't pound the offensive glass either. They will still be an dangerous offense, but hopefully our two biggest weaknesses on defense don't get exposed too much. On the other end, they will make it tough for guys like Tatum and Allen to drive into the lane. They will make it tough on Kennard too, but Kennard doesn't drive in the same manner as Allen and Tatum (he's more patient in his drives). We'll need to hit our 3s, because they'll allow some looks. But it is going to be a battle.

I think CDu knows our team better than most UVA fans. Excellent write-up per usual.

[CDu]

I think CDu knows our team better than most UVA fans. Excellent write-up per usual.

Thanks jhmoss! I was VERY hesitant writing this one as I know you and Wahoo are regulars on the board, and certainly know your team better than I know them. Please feel free to add your thoughts. Looking forward to what hopefully will be an exciting battle with your guys!

[gam7]

I still cannot bring myself to delete this game from my DVR.

I totally get it and have the same problem. But, the full game is up on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUwlpkTSb8A

[FerryFor50]

Excellent summary/analysis, CDu! Not to nitpick, but Salt hails from New Zealand, and IMO Guy is a better athlete than I have seen him given credit for. I saw him play several times when I lived in Indiana, and his vertical may exceed 40"(hope we don't see it on Wednesday!). Let's go, Duke!

Agreed on Guy.

If you got a chance to see him in the McD AA dunk contest... wow.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.streakingthelawn.com/platform/amp/2016/3/28/11321866/guy-puts-on-a-show-at-mcdonalds-all-american-games

[NYBri]

For some stupid, unexplained reason I feel good about this upcoming game. :cool:

[MChambers]

This season, UVA goes to a 4-guard lineup somewhat frequently. For example, according to kenpom($), in the past 5 games, UVA spent 40% of the time playing either Devon Hall or Marial Shayok at the "4". How well Duke plays against UVA's 4-guard lineup will decide the game. Sometimes we've performed admirably against smallball (e.g. Rhode Island, Notre Dame) and sometimes we've struggled (e.g. VaTech, Clemson).

If anyone saw the UVA / VPI game last night, you saw that down the stretch UVA went small and played a very un-UVA like offense. Perrantes would repeatedly run a ball screen and get a Hokie big man to switch onto him, and then Perrantes would take him 1-on-1 to the basket for a layup or foul. Will Duke handle this better than VPI did?

The second thing that's different about this UVA team is how often their defense is forcing turnovers. Prior to this season, Tony Bennett had never had a top-100 defense at forcing turnovers. This season? They are 38th in the country and 2nd in the conference behind Florida St. at forcing turnovers.

And that usually wouldn't even be a major concern, except that THIS Duke team has had turnover issues in conference play, which I've mentioned before. I could easily see our guys making poor passes and decisions against the Pack Line, including overpenetrating and getting stripped by a Pack wing.

So, here would be my keys to the game:
(1) Defending UVA's 4-guard lineup well, if they decide to give up Blocker/Mover and just spread Duke out and drive.
(2) Limiting turnovers against the Pack Line. Make the right pass at the right time. When UVA is locked in on defense, it'll feel like you can only get one penetrating dribble before they've collapsed on you. Be prepared to do one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick.
(3) Making a good percentage of our threes.

I expect a loss because I think one or more of those things will break down.

This and your earlier post really do a great job of explaining stylistic matchups for this game. I can't spork you, so this post will have to do.

I agree with your bottom line, too, in the sense that we are both expecting a loss. Maybe that will propel the Devils to victory!

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting that KenPom rates this as Duke's toughest remaining game -- tougher than the regular season finale in Chapel Hill.

Duke has a 24 percent chance (according to KenPom) at Virginia with a 67-59 expected score; a 33 percent chance at UNC with an 83-78 expected score.

I think the 3-point battle will be key -- Virginia is the best 3-point shooting team in ACC play (41.1 percent) ... Just ahead of Duke(39.7). Duke has a lot more 3-point volume, with exactly 9.0 3-pointers made in ACC play; Virginia at 7.08 a game is 14th in the league in that category.

Duke is the second best 3-point defensive team (holding ACC foes to 32.4), a fraction ahead of No. 3 Virginia (also 32.4).

One other factoid -- Virginia is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the foul line -- averaging less than 11 made free throws in 12 ACC games (Duke averages 16.0 made free throws in its 12 ACC games)

[CDu]

Interesting that KenPom rates this as Duke's toughest remaining game -- tougher than the regular season finale in Chapel Hill.

Duke has a 24 percent chance (according to KenPom) at Virginia with a 67-59 expected score; a 33 percent chance at UNC with an 83-78 expected score.

I think the 3-point battle will be key -- Virginia is the best 3-point shooting team in ACC play (41.1 percent) ... Just ahead of Duke(39.7). Duke has a lot more 3-point volume, with exactly 9.0 3-pointers made in ACC play; Virginia at 7.08 a game is 14th in the league in that category.

Duke is the second best 3-point defensive team (holding ACC foes to 32.4), a fraction ahead of No. 3 Virginia (also 32.4).

One other factoid -- Virginia is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the foul line -- averaging less than 11 made free throws in 12 ACC games (Duke averages 16.0 made free throws in its 12 ACC games)

KenPom loves UVa. They have UVa as the #2 team nationally. UNC is #10, hence UVa is our toughest game of the year.

Honestly, we aren't going to have any games in the tourney tougher than @UVa and @Louisville (at least according to Pomeroy).

[jhmoss1812]

Thanks jhmoss! I was VERY hesitant writing this one as I know you and Wahoo are regulars on the board, and certainly know your team better than I know them. Please feel free to add your thoughts. Looking forward to what hopefully will be an exciting battle with your guys!

First of all, Guy is an exceptional athlete. Check out his dunk at Rucker Park. His playing time is limited by his lack of strength and ability to keep guys in front of him. Plus, Tony tends to trust the upperclassmen more in late game situations, although Guy and Jerome are getting more burn down the stretch.

Duke presents a very tough matchup for UVA. There's a reason Bennett is 2-8 against Coach K while being relatively successful against other ACC coaches, Sure, some of that has due to talent differential. But there are plenty of teams that are more talented than UVA and still lose to us consistently. But one of the best ways to beat UVA is to space us out, drive the ball and hit your 3s. Duke does that as good as anyone in the country. Plus, Duke's guards have good length and can rise up off the bounce. Kennard and Tatum are excellent at that.

Personally, I think the key to this game is how well Duke defends UVA. Duke will have to be incredibly disciplined and be ready to play 25 seconds of defense every single possession. One breakdown and UVA typically capitalizes. Some teams make you do that every now and then. UVA will make Duke do that every possession. That can wear on a team. This game will be about Duke's mindset on the defensive side of the ball.

This is a really big game in terms of ACC standings but also has strong implications for the Greenville pod. I'm expecting another classic game between Duke and UVA. We have had some tough losses to Duke the last few years (Sulaimon's 3 that bounced off the rim and in, Tyus Stones going off in the JPJ, Grayson's buzzer beater last year) and those were with significantly better teams than the one we have this year. Duke is starting to play like the team most expected them to be all year. I really wish we played earlier in the season. My heart says UVA wins by 3 as we're coming off a close loss to a rival and playing at home. However, my head says Duke wins by 5. Either way, I'm looking forward to it.

P.S. I've really tried to not get too emotionally invested in regular season wins and losses anymore. UVA has accomplished what I wanted them to accomplish the last few years. While I've certainly enjoyed winning the ACC regular season and finishing top 4 in the ACC, the tournaments are really all I care about anymore. Good luck Wednesday night!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgxRmpFVBVw

[gam7]

KenPom loves UVa. They have UVa as the #2 team nationally. UNC is #10, hence UVa is our toughest game of the year.

Honestly, we aren't going to have any games in the tourney tougher than @UVa and @Louisville (at least according to Pomeroy).

One thing to note though - the difference in efficiency margin between Kenpom #1 (Gonzaga) and #2 (UVA) is approximately the same as the difference between #2 (UVA) and #8 (Kentucky). In other words, Gonzaga is in a class of its own. True, UVA is currently #2, but they are one home loss to Duke away from potentially taking a pretty significant drop in Kenpom.

[CameronDuke]

UVa can be beaten if they are kept off the foul line. If Duke can connect on their free throws tomorrow, it's probably gonna be tough for UVa to out score them there. Just gotta keep them off the free throw line. I like Duke's front court against UVA's. Wilkins is essentially a moderately sized 4, step out screen guy that can occasionally hit a 15-footer or get a pick and roll dunk moving towards the basket. Either Tatum or Amile will just need to keep him off the boards and I feel good about Duke's chances. Salt is a big body but a fouling machine. He is strong but limited offensively. If Duke can keep him off the boards and limit second chance points, I like how Duke matches up with UVA. If Kennard and Grayson are knocking down 3s at a good clip, Matt does another solid job defensively on Perrantes like he did on Blossomgame Saturday at Cameron, and Giles comes in and gives Duke good minutes on the boards and defensively, I think Duke will be around at the end of the game with a chance to win. I like that Duke doesn't have to worry about being beaten in transition this game, nor by straight line driving guards. The pack line defense is effective for sure, but I imagine floor spacing and drive and dishing has been worked on exhaustively today and will be tomorrow too. I think Amile is going to play a big role helping attack the pack line from the elbow tomorrow. Hit Amile at the elbow and let him face the basket and either drive his defender or pass to a wing. VPI shot just 8-26 from 3 last night and missed many wide open, good looks from 3 from the corner during regulation that were set up by drive and dishes. If Duke can knock those down at a good clip, I think Duke will win. I like Duke's chances Wednesday.

I will say Tony Bennett remains one of the most likable coaches and people in the league and NCAA hoops. Respectable, that guy is.

[CDu]

One thing to note though - the difference in efficiency margin between Kenpom #1 (Gonzaga) and #2 (UVA) is approximately the same as the difference between #2 (UVA) and #8 (Kentucky). In other words, Gonzaga is in a class of its own. True, UVA is currently #2, but they are one home loss to Duke away from potentially taking a pretty significant drop in Kenpom.

Gonzaga is - I think - the fly in Pomeroy's soup, so to speak. They have only one (maybe two) impressive wins on the season, and have gotten fat by curb-stomping some terrible teams. Pomeroy's system just doesn't handle games against terrible teams well. They won at Florida (who also appears to fall in the same category stomping the SEC), snuck past ISU, and beat an undermanned at the time Arizona team.

That is not to say that Gonzaga isn't really good. They certainly are very good. But I don't think they are really the best team in the country. Nor do I think they are among the 5 best teams in the last 16 years, as Pomeroy's efficiency margin would suggest.

[Troublemaker]

This and your earlier post really do a great job of explaining stylistic matchups for this game. I can't spork you, so this post will have to do.

I agree with your bottom line, too, in the sense that we are both expecting a loss. Maybe that will propel the Devils to victory!

Thanks for the praise, MChambers! As for your last line, that's very possible. I crashed and burned in the Wager Contest, so me picking UVA to win is a good thing for Duke.

The guy to pay attention to is NYBri above, who seems to be feeling good about Duke's chances. NYBri is in first place in the Wager Contest, bigly!


Kenpom has UVA winning by 8 pts, 67-59 and our win chances at 24%. Guessing the bookie spread will be less, maybe UVA -7?

Still thinking 5.5, maybe even less. No way the books put a number like 7 or 8 out there when Duke can be expected to be the public side in this game.

[Troublemaker]

Gonzaga is - I think - the fly in Pomeroy's soup, so to speak. They have only one (maybe two) impressive wins on the season, and have gotten fat by curb-stomping some terrible teams. Pomeroy's system just doesn't handle games against terrible teams well. They won at Florida (who also appears to fall in the same category stomping the SEC), snuck past ISU, and beat an undermanned at the time Arizona team.

That is not to say that Gonzaga isn't really good. They certainly are very good. But I don't think they are really the best team in the country. Nor do I think they are among the 5 best teams in the last 16 years, as Pomeroy's efficiency margin would suggest.

For that matter, I don't really think UVA is the #2 team or WVU the #4 team.

[Skydog]

Gonzaga is - I think - the fly in Pomeroy's soup, so to speak. They have only one (maybe two) impressive wins on the season, and have gotten fat by curb-stomping some terrible teams. Pomeroy's system just doesn't handle games against terrible teams well. They won at Florida (who also appears to fall in the same category stomping the SEC), snuck past ISU, and beat an undermanned at the time Arizona team.

That is not to say that Gonzaga isn't really good. They certainly are very good. But I don't think they are really the best team in the country. Nor do I think they are among the 5 best teams in the last 16 years, as Pomeroy's efficiency margin would suggest.

They also beat #19 St. Mary's by 23 at home and by 10 on the road fwiw. Of course St. Mary's may be over-ranked as well. But I agree - the kenpom system (or any system) is more liable to error when ranking teams from weaker conferences - just not enough info available about how they do against a tough schedule.

[duke4ever19]

Gonzaga is - I think - the fly in Pomeroy's soup, so to speak. They have only one (maybe two) impressive wins on the season, and have gotten fat by curb-stomping some terrible teams. Pomeroy's system just doesn't handle games against terrible teams well. They won at Florida (who also appears to fall in the same category stomping the SEC), snuck past ISU, and beat an undermanned at the time Arizona team.

That is not to say that Gonzaga isn't really good. They certainly are very good. But I don't think they are really the best team in the country. Nor do I think they are among the 5 best teams in the last 16 years, as Pomeroy's efficiency margin would suggest.

I didn't buy the 2014-15 Gonzaga Bulldogs either. Yes, they lost twice in the regular season, but by a combined total of 6 points. They cruised through the rest of their schedule, eventually avenging one of their losses (BYU) by a comfortable margin to win the WCC tournament. They were a popular pick to take Duke down in the tournament, but they lost by 14.

I also noticed that Gonzaga has four teams represented in Pomeroy's top 11 teams in scoring margin since 1999. No other team has more than one. There are a variety of reasons for that, (including Gonzaga being a strong program) but one of them definitely is the strength of their conference (or lack thereof).

[DukieInBrasil]

Gonzaga is - I think - the fly in Pomeroy's soup, so to speak. They have only one (maybe two) impressive wins on the season, and have gotten fat by curb-stomping some terrible teams. Pomeroy's system just doesn't handle games against terrible teams well. They won at Florida (who also appears to fall in the same category stomping the SEC), snuck past ISU, and beat an undermanned at the time Arizona team.

That is not to say that Gonzaga isn't really good. They certainly are very good. But I don't think they are really the best team in the country. Nor do I think they are among the 5 best teams in the last 16 years, as Pomeroy's efficiency margin would suggest.

How does KenPom's system handle middle of the pack competition? I imagine that college basketball is somewhat of a lognormal distribution, in that the best teams are much better than the mid level teams are better than the worst teams, ie heavily skewed towards the better teams.
Since the Zags play a whole bunch of mid-level teams that they smoke, and not a whole lot of really good teams, it seems that KenPom would give too much value to beating a mediocre by 25.

[uh_no]

How does KenPom's system handle middle of the pack competition? I imagine that college basketball is somewhat of a lognormal distribution, in that the best teams are much better than the mid level teams are better than the worst teams, ie heavily skewed towards the better teams.
Since the Zags play a whole bunch of mid-level teams that they smoke, and not a whole lot of really good teams, it seems that KenPom would give too much value to beating a mediocre by 25.

the analysis of offense and defense in a given game is done completely separately. the further ahead of one team you are on one given side of the ball, the less you get for beating them up.

if Duke offense vs wake forest defense puts up 130 adjusted efficiency, that will count less in their average than the same adjusted efficiency vs virginia.

[Neals384]

I watched the St. Mary's - Gonzaga game. St. Mary's played hard but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn: 40% for the game; just 26% on 3's. Jock Landale put up 24 on 8 for 15 shooting; everyone else was 16 for 44 (36%). Landale is the real deal, but he played only 25 minutes due to foul trouble. To be honest I don't see anyone else on St. Mary's who could start in the ACC.

One odd thing about the game: Gonzaga repeatedly left Dane Pineau completely uncovered on the 3-pt line. He did shoot and make one, but Pineau is only 5 for 13 on 3s for the season. In effect, St. Mary's was often playing 4 on 5 on offense, so I can't give Gonzaga too much credit for fine defense in this game.

On offense, the Zags are very good. Everyone can score. This was a breakout game for center Przemek Karnowski, who scored 19 on 9 for 13 shooting. He's a giant at 7'1" and 300 lbs; also runs well but has no hops. At guard, Nigel Williams-Goss didn't have a great game against St. Mary's, but he is a major talent. There are no weak spots in the lineup.

Are they the best team in the country? I doubt it. I think they could beat anyone on a given night, but I see them struggling against teams with more physicality and better 3-pt shooting than St. Mary's.

[Olympic Fan]

I watched the St. Mary's - Gonzaga game. St. Mary's played hard but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn: 40% for the game; just 26% on 3's. Jock Landale put up 24 on 8 for 15 shooting; everyone else was 16 for 44 (36%). Landale is the real deal, but he played only 25 minutes due to foul trouble. To be honest I don't see anyone else on St. Mary's who could start in the ACC.

One odd thing about the game: Gonzaga repeatedly left Dane Pineau completely uncovered on the 3-pt line. He did shoot and make one, but Pineau is only 5 for 13 on 3s for the season. In effect, St. Mary's was often playing 4 on 5 on offense, so I can't give Gonzaga too much credit for fine defense in this game.

On offense, the Zags are very good. Everyone can score. This was a breakout game for center Przemek Karnowski, who scored 19 on 9 for 13 shooting. He's a giant at 7'1" and 300 lbs; also runs well but has no hops. At guard, Nigel Williams-Goss didn't have a great game against St. Mary's, but he is a major talent. There are no weak spots in the lineup.

Are they the best team in the country? I doubt it. I think they could beat anyone on a given night, but I see them struggling against teams with more physicality and better 3-pt shooting than St. Mary's.

I watch a lot of late night basketball and still don't know how good Gonzaga is. They usually play some great opposition early on neutral courts, then run and hide the rest of the season in the weak West Coast Conference.

No difference this season: Their big win was a 5-point win over short-handed Arizona (missing two starters) in Los Angeles. They beat Florida by 5 on a neutral court in November (about 10 days before we beat Florida by 10 on a neutral court). They beat a decent Iowa State team by two on a neutral floor. Like Duke they didn't play a single road game in non-conference. Unlike Duke, they haven't played a single decent conference team -- home and away.

That includes St. Mary's. I don't know how good Gonzaga is, but I believe St. Mary's would currently rank 14th in the ACC. Better than Boston College maybe (although Robinson and Bowman would give them fits). They might beat NC State now because the Pack has collapsed, but it terms of talent, it's not close. Touting the Gonzaga-St. Mary's game as a major test is a sign of how pitiful the WCC is this year.

Gonzaga might prove me wrong this year and reach the Final Four. But they never have gotten that far and I don't think they will this year.

[uh_no]

I watch a lot of late night basketball and still don't know how good Gonzaga is. They usually play some great opposition early on neutral courts, then run and hide the rest of the season in the weak West Coast Conference.

No difference this season: Their big win was a 5-point win over short-handed Arizona (missing two starters) in Los Angeles. They beat Florida by 5 on a neutral court in November (about 10 days before we beat Florida by 10 on a neutral court). They beat a decent Iowa State team by two on a neutral floor. Like Duke they didn't play a single road game in non-conference. Unlike Duke, they haven't played a single decent conference team -- home and away.

That includes St. Mary's. I don't know how good Gonzaga is, but I believe St. Mary's would currently rank 14th in the ACC. Better than Boston College maybe (although Robinson and Bowman would give them fits). They might beat NC State now because the Pack has collapsed, but it terms of talent, it's not close. Touting the Gonzaga-St. Mary's game as a major test is a sign of how pitiful the WCC is this year.

Gonzaga might prove me wrong this year and reach the Final Four. But they never have gotten that far and I don't think they will this year.

when we were struggling, i was looking forward to being an 8 seed in gonzaga's bracket. elite 8 is their ceiling, IMO....and depending on matchups, not even that far.

[gofurman]

KenPom loves UVa. They have UVa as the #2 team nationally. UNC is #10, hence UVa is our toughest game of the year.

Honestly, we aren't going to have any games in the tourney tougher than @UVa and @Louisville (at least according to Pomeroy).

And RPI agrees. UVA is toughest then Unc. Then wake is by far easiest with the remaking three at Miami at Syracuse and home v fsu equal. Predictors say we go 3-3. I would take that and love 4-2. I'll set my expectation for 3-3 though. Finishing 11-7 and 23-8

[Troublemaker]

While I generally agree with Gonzaga skepticism (i.e. very good but not THAT good), let's remember that in 2010, very few people outside of Duke fans believed that Duke deserved our spot atop kenpom's rankings that year either. Maybe the computer has it right on Gonzaga; either way, the tourney will provide valuable data points. (Internet archive link (http://web.archive.org/web/20100304023540/http://kenpom.com/rate.php) - Duke was #1 on March 3, 2010. Couldn't grab anything closer to middle of March, when tourney started).


Bringing it around to topical relevancy, though, I think very few people -- including very few UVA fans -- really believe UVA is the second-best team in the country. So what is going on with THEIR ranking?

Looking over their schedule, it seems they really murdered some of their weaker competition:
Predicted to beat UNCG by 12, instead won by 25
Predicted to beat St Francis by 28, instead won by 40
Predicted to beat Grambling by 30, instead won by 56
Predicted to beat Iowa by 11, instead won by 33
Predicted to beat Robert Morris by 24, instead won by 40

I think that Iowa game was most helpful to UVA's ranking of those 5 games. Iowa's not going to make the tourney, but they are a top 75 team.

But I think the biggest boost to UVA's kenpom ranking has been their ownership of top 5 Louisville. Sweeping the Cards and outperforming projections by 10 and 12 points in the two games. Not that UVA doesn't deserve credit for battering Louisville, but perhaps it is outsized credit due to a matchup issue with Louisville that doesn't exist with most other top-25 teams.

Anyway, the possibility also exists that UVA is the second-best team in the country. Duke 2010 and all.

[superdave]

This is the sort of game that coaches have to prep the team for extensively because you wont see much else all season that looks like the pack line. This Uva team is also one that you really have to play hard and disciplined for 40 minutes against. Our young team has to play the game plan and be focused for 40 minutes. They have shown the ability grind games lout, come from behind late, and even put together nice runs. But this game is different and will take some maturity. The seniors need to step up early to set the pace and execute so the younger guys can follow suit.

This would be a great win, but a close loss with excellent effort, focus and execution would still be a step in the right direction.

[Troublemaker]

This is the sort of game that coaches have to prep the team for extensively because you wont see much else all season that looks like the pack line. This Uva team is also one that you really have to play hard and disciplined for 40 minutes against. Our young team has to play the game plan and be focused for 40 minutes. They have shown the ability grind games lout, come from behind late, and even put together nice runs. But this game is different and will take some maturity. The seniors need to step up early to set the pace and execute so the younger guys can follow suit.

This would be a great win, but a close loss with excellent effort, focus and execution would still be a step in the right direction.

I'm not too worried about that because Duke really isn't that young with the rotation used during this winning streak. The vets will lead the way, hopefully to a W.

[CDu]

While I generally agree with Gonzaga skepticism (i.e. very good but not THAT good), let's remember that in 2010, very few people outside of Duke fans believed that Duke deserved our spot atop kenpom's rankings that year either. Maybe the computer has it right on Gonzaga; either way, the tourney will provide valuable data points. (Internet archive link (http://web.archive.org/web/20100304023540/http://kenpom.com/rate.php) - Duke was #1 on March 3, 2010. Couldn't grab anything closer to middle of March, when tourney started).

There is a difference though. That 2010 Duke team had lots of data against good teams. The 2017 Gonzaga team doesn't. They have a win over a depleted Arizona team, a win over Florida (who appears to be overrated by Pomeroy), a win over Iowa State, and wins over an overrated St. Mary's.

And, to be honest, I think Duke caught some nice breaks in that tournament in avoiding the types of teams that gave us trouble in 2010 in the tournament. We certainly played some good teams (Baylor in Houston and West Virginia in the Final Four). But those good teams we faced didn't have the parts that gave us trouble (namely dynamic stretch 4s and generally good floor spacing). Not to take anything away from that 2010 team, which was great. But we did catch some fortune in our path. West Virginia and Baylor played paint cloggers at the 4. Purdue (our Sweet 16 opponent) was without its best player and most dynamic weapon. In the championship, we faced a team with a


Bringing it around to topical relevancy, though, I think very few people -- including very few UVA fans -- really believe UVA is the second-best team in the country. So what is going on with THEIR ranking?

Looking over their schedule, it seems they really murdered some of their weaker competition:
Predicted to beat UNCG by 12, instead won by 25
Predicted to beat St Francis by 28, instead won by 40
Predicted to beat Grambling by 30, instead won by 56
Predicted to beat Iowa by 11, instead won by 33
Predicted to beat Robert Morris by 24, instead won by 40

I think that Iowa game was most helpful to UVA's ranking of those 5 games. Iowa's not going to make the tourney, but they are a top 75 team.

But I think the biggest boost to UVA's kenpom ranking has been their ownership of top 5 Louisville. Sweeping the Cards and outperforming projections by 10 and 12 points in the two games. Not that UVA doesn't deserve credit for battering Louisville, but perhaps it is outsized credit due to a matchup issue with Louisville that doesn't exist with most other top-25 teams.

Anyway, the possibility also exists that UVA is the second-best team in the country. Duke 2010 and all.

This highlights some of the limitations of Pomeroy's system. Small sample size, limited interconference play, and inability to account for matchup factors. So there is lots of "noise" in the estimates for each team, meaning you should take each team's ranking/rating with a wide confidence interval around it. You can get a general sense of how good the team is, but probably shouldn't put too much stock on exactly how good they are.

I think it is appropriate to say that Gonzaga is a very good team. I don't think that it is appropriate to say they are among the best teams ever in the Pomeroy era. But they should reasonably be a top 10 team.

I think it is appropriate to say that UVa is a very good team. They probably are not the #2 team in the country. But they should be a top 10 team. Additionally, UVa's slow pace (combined with their success in winning) tends to inflate their rating because the free-throw game at the end can inflate their relative efficiency.

I think it is appropriate to say that 2010 Duke was a very good team. I don't know that it is appropriate to say that they were definitely the best team in the country. But they were on the short list that year for sure.

[hsheffield]

UVa can be beaten if they are kept off the foul line. If Duke can connect on their free throws tomorrow, it's probably gonna be tough for UVa to out score them there. Just gotta keep them off the free throw line. I like Duke's front court against UVA's. Wilkins is essentially a moderately sized 4, step out screen guy that can occasionally hit a 15-footer or get a pick and roll dunk moving towards the basket. Either Tatum or Amile will just need to keep him off the boards and I feel good about Duke's chances. Salt is a big body but a fouling machine. He is strong but limited offensively. If Duke can keep him off the boards and limit second chance points, I like how Duke matches up with UVA. If Kennard and Grayson are knocking down 3s at a good clip, Matt does another solid job defensively on Perrantes like he did on Blossomgame Saturday at Cameron, and Giles comes in and gives Duke good minutes on the boards and defensively, I think Duke will be around at the end of the game with a chance to win. I like that Duke doesn't have to worry about being beaten in transition this game, nor by straight line driving guards. The pack line defense is effective for sure, but I imagine floor spacing and drive and dishing has been worked on exhaustively today and will be tomorrow too. I think Amile is going to play a big role helping attack the pack line from the elbow tomorrow. Hit Amile at the elbow and let him face the basket and either drive his defender or pass to a wing. VPI shot just 8-26 from 3 last night and missed many wide open, good looks from 3 from the corner during regulation that were set up by drive and dishes. If Duke can knock those down at a good clip, I think Duke will win. I like Duke's chances Wednesday.

I will say Tony Bennett remains one of the most likable coaches and people in the league and NCAA hoops. Respectable, that guy is.

rien ne vas plus!

'off the foul line' is probably going to depend on which refs we get:cool:

[jhmoss1812]

While I generally agree with Gonzaga skepticism (i.e. very good but not THAT good), let's remember that in 2010, very few people outside of Duke fans believed that Duke deserved our spot atop kenpom's rankings that year either. Maybe the computer has it right on Gonzaga; either way, the tourney will provide valuable data points. (Internet archive link (http://web.archive.org/web/20100304023540/http://kenpom.com/rate.php) - Duke was #1 on March 3, 2010. Couldn't grab anything closer to middle of March, when tourney started).


Bringing it around to topical relevancy, though, I think very few people -- including very few UVA fans -- really believe UVA is the second-best team in the country. So what is going on with THEIR ranking?

Looking over their schedule, it seems they really murdered some of their weaker competition:
Predicted to beat UNCG by 12, instead won by 25
Predicted to beat St Francis by 28, instead won by 40
Predicted to beat Grambling by 30, instead won by 56
Predicted to beat Iowa by 11, instead won by 33
Predicted to beat Robert Morris by 24, instead won by 40

I think that Iowa game was most helpful to UVA's ranking of those 5 games. Iowa's not going to make the tourney, but they are a top 75 team.

But I think the biggest boost to UVA's kenpom ranking has been their ownership of top 5 Louisville. Sweeping the Cards and outperforming projections by 10 and 12 points in the two games. Not that UVA doesn't deserve credit for battering Louisville, but perhaps it is outsized credit due to a matchup issue with Louisville that doesn't exist with most other top-25 teams.

Anyway, the possibility also exists that UVA is the second-best team in the country. Duke 2010 and all.

Honestly, I don't even think we're a top 10 team in the country. I know the advanced metrics love us but UVA is in the 15-20 range (which is pretty damn good for a "rebuilding year"). But we have no interior post threat. Absolutely none. Wilkins does a good job getting hustle points but we don't play through him like we did Gill and Tobey. Salt is way too raw on the offensive end. He's a very good screener and solid defender (although he does pick up a lot of fouls too) but has terrible hands and is relatively soft on the offensive side of the ball. Reuter is undersized for the ACC. He has solid post moves but he's not big enough against ACC competition. He would absolutely dominate at a mid-major program. And Diakite, despite having a boatload of potential, is still skinny and raw and gets lost on defensive rotations. That is putting a ton of pressure on our guards to generate offense and score. It also puts us in more 4-guard lineups than we're accustomed to playing. That might lead to better offensive output but we are struggling to defend and rebound. The main problem is that opposing defenses know we have no post threat so they press up on our shooters (go watch the UVA-Cuse game). It also severely limits our ability to get to the FT line. UVA has faced a huge disparity in FT shooting in the majority of our ACC games. There are games where we shoot 5 or less FTs. You just can't expect to win games against good competition like that. Most UVA fans think there's a conspiracy against us (it definitely felt like it at Villanova lol) but the fact is our team is not built to draw fouls. We are an excellent jump shooting team and our players typically settle for good jump shots than forcing up a bad one trying to draw a foul. What I love about our team is that we compete and battle every game. It's not always enough to win but we don't ever get blown out (except in OT against Pitt - WTF was that?). Obviously, some of that has to do with pace. That gives me confidence that UVA can beat any team in the country. However, the flaws in this team are many and limit our upside for this year. I've said all year that this team is an Elite 8 team at best and that was with Austin Nichols. Without him, we'll be fortunate to make the second weekend. I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see it this year. Maybe we'll exceed expectations without the pressure of being a 1 or 2 seed though or get some fortunate matchups.

[Kedsy]

(Internet archive link (http://web.archive.org/web/20100304023540/http://kenpom.com/rate.php) - Duke was #1 on March 3, 2010. Couldn't grab anything closer to middle of March, when tourney started).

On March 14, 2010, Duke was still #1 in the published Pomeroy rankings (#1 offense; #4 defense).

[Skydog]

...
This highlights some of the limitations of Pomeroy's system. Small sample size, limited interconference play, and inability to account for matchup factors. ...

I wouldn't say small sample size and limited inter-conference play are limitations of Pomeroy's system. A system can only work with what it is given.

The fact that Pomeroy ignores matchup factors is a limitation though. Are there any automated systems that take that into account? Also has there been any research to show how much of a factor it really is? I would bet the data would show that matchup effects are real but smaller than commonly thought.

[CDu]

I wouldn't say small sample size and limited inter-conference play are limitations of Pomeroy's system. A system can only work with what it is given.

When writing a manuscript on a study you've done, you note the limitations of your study. One limitation that should be in basically every study using secondary data analysis is that the data aren't perfect. It's not the authors' fault, but it is still a limitation. Same applies for Pomeroy's analysis. He is doing the best he can with some very imperfect data. But it's still a limitation of the model that needs to be considered.


The fact that Pomeroy ignores matchup factors is a limitation though. Are there any automated systems that take that into account? Also has there been any research to show how much of a factor it really is? I would bet the data would show that matchup effects are real but smaller than commonly thought.

I don't think that anyone does this. Mainly because there are just too many variations on this that it would be impossible to track all of them appropriately. Especially because the teams change every year. Iin some cases, like Syracuse or Louisville or UVa, the system remains. But not always. And even still, the players running those systems change.

[uh_no]

I don't think that anyone does this. Mainly because there are just too many variations on this that it would be impossible to track all of them appropriately. Especially because the teams change every year. Iin some cases, like Syracuse or Louisville or UVa, the system remains. But not always. And even still, the players running those systems change.

not to mention, we have a small sample size already, so trying to make any sort of automated prediction concerning how two teams match up would have a really high margin of error. Even as it is, it's difficult to evaluate our predictions when the evaluation sample size is only 60-70 possessions.

[gam7]

Salt is way too raw on the offensive end. He's a very good screener and solid defender (although he does pick up a lot of fouls too) but has terrible hands and is relatively soft on the offensive side of the ball.

So, you are saying that Salt needs some seasoning?

[rasputin]

So, you are saying that Salt needs some seasoning?

They play their best with the Margarita offense: Salt on the rim.

[devildeac]

So, you are saying that Salt needs some seasoning?


They play their best with the Margarita offense: Salt on the rim.

I guess we'll sea tomorrow night if what y'all are saying about Salt is true. Hope every thing is Kosher.

[Troublemaker]

Still thinking 5.5, maybe even less. No way the books put a number like 7 or 8 out there when Duke can be expected to be the public side in this game.

The spread opened at 5, now down to 4.5 (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/duke-@-virginia.cfm/date/2-15-17/time/2100#BT)

[mgtr]

I guess we'll sea tomorrow night if what y'all are saying about Salt is true. Hope every thing is Kosher.

I sea what you did there!

[flyingdutchdevil]

The spread opened at 5, now down to 4.5 (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/duke-@-virginia.cfm/date/2-15-17/time/2100#BT)

Interesting. I like the spread. I'd bet on that (in Duke's favor, of course). I still think UVa will win, but that spread seems a little too high.

[W&LHoo]

Honestly, I don't even think we're a top 10 team in the country. I know the advanced metrics love us but UVA is in the 15-20 range (which is pretty damn good for a "rebuilding year"). But we have no interior post threat. Absolutely none. Wilkins does a good job getting hustle points but we don't play through him like we did Gill and Tobey. Salt is way too raw on the offensive end. He's a very good screener and solid defender (although he does pick up a lot of fouls too) but has terrible hands and is relatively soft on the offensive side of the ball. Reuter is undersized for the ACC. He has solid post moves but he's not big enough against ACC competition. He would absolutely dominate at a mid-major program. And Diakite, despite having a boatload of potential, is still skinny and raw and gets lost on defensive rotations. That is putting a ton of pressure on our guards to generate offense and score. It also puts us in more 4-guard lineups than we're accustomed to playing. That might lead to better offensive output but we are struggling to defend and rebound. The main problem is that opposing defenses know we have no post threat so they press up on our shooters (go watch the UVA-Cuse game). It also severely limits our ability to get to the FT line. UVA has faced a huge disparity in FT shooting in the majority of our ACC games. There are games where we shoot 5 or less FTs. You just can't expect to win games against good competition like that. Most UVA fans think there's a conspiracy against us (it definitely felt like it at Villanova lol) but the fact is our team is not built to draw fouls. We are an excellent jump shooting team and our players typically settle for good jump shots than forcing up a bad one trying to draw a foul. What I love about our team is that we compete and battle every game. It's not always enough to win but we don't ever get blown out (except in OT against Pitt - WTF was that?). Obviously, some of that has to do with pace. That gives me confidence that UVA can beat any team in the country. However, the flaws in this team are many and limit our upside for this year. I've said all year that this team is an Elite 8 team at best and that was with Austin Nichols. Without him, we'll be fortunate to make the second weekend. I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see it this year. Maybe we'll exceed expectations without the pressure of being a 1 or 2 seed though or get some fortunate matchups.

Frequent lurker/UVA fan here. I think jhmoss basically captured precisely the UVA fan-base's views here. We've gotten some good wins based on a couple of standout performances and Bennett having a summer home in Pitino's skull.

Otherwise, we're really just not an elite-level team this year. Coach Bennett's system thrives on guys who deeply understand what they're doing and how they fit within a complex larger scheme, and a year where we're playing a bunch of underclassmen and just one senior doesn't really auger success when we're running that kind of program. When London and Wilkins and some combination of Jerome/Guy/Shayock are all playing well, we're very tough, but if we lose even a piece of that (see: Wilkins with foul trouble up at Cuse), we become this one-dimensional team that lacks consistent rim defense and anything resembling inside offense.

I'm thrilled that our "down years" still include consistently high-levels of play but I'm just not sold that this is the kind of team that can make a deep tourney run.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting. I like the spread. I'd bet on that (in Duke's favor, of course). I still think UVa will win, but that spread seems a little too high.

That's a relatively narrow range of possible outcomes. Basically you're saying UVA will win by 1,2,3, or 4. The odds would be against you -- while it's possible for that range to hit, one would rather be on the side of "UVA covers the spread or Duke wins."

[devildeac]

Frequent lurker/UVA fan here. I think jhmoss basically captured precisely the UVA fan-base's views here. We've gotten some good wins based on a couple of standout performances and Bennett having a summer home in Pitino's skull.

Otherwise, we're really just not an elite-level team this year. Coach Bennett's system thrives on guys who deeply understand what they're doing and how they fit within a complex larger scheme, and a year where we're playing a bunch of underclassmen and just one senior doesn't really auger success when we're running that kind of program. When London and Wilkins and some combination of Jerome/Guy/Shayock are all playing well, we're very tough, but if we lose even a piece of that (see: Wilkins with foul trouble up at Cuse), we become this one-dimensional team that lacks consistent rim defense and anything resembling inside offense.

I'm thrilled that our "down years" still include consistently high-levels of play but I'm just not sold that this is the kind of team that can make a deep tourney run.

We're accumulating a nice little group of intelligent and insightful UVa posters here. Welcome, thanks for entering the fray and post often!

[OldPhiKap]

We're accumulating a nice little group of intelligent and insightful UVa posters here. Welcome, thanks for entering the fray and post often!

Ditto my thoughts.

[niveklaen]

They also beat #19 St. Mary's by 23 at home and by 10 on the road fwiw. Of course St. Mary's may be over-ranked as well. But I agree - the kenpom system (or any system) is more liable to error when ranking teams from weaker conferences - just not enough info available about how they do against a tough schedule.

Kenpom noted this issue and adjusted his calculations last summer to tamp down on the 'beating up a bad conference' weakness in his system

http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

for whatever reason even the adjusted calculations still have the ZAGs running away from the field.

[Devilwin]

A rested Duke team wins. I will entertain no other eventuality...:cool:

[Troublemaker]

This season, UVA goes to a 4-guard lineup somewhat frequently. For example, according to kenpom($), in the past 5 games, UVA spent 40% of the time playing either Devon Hall or Marial Shayok at the "4". How well Duke plays against UVA's 4-guard lineup will decide the game. Sometimes we've performed admirably against smallball (e.g. Rhode Island, Notre Dame) and sometimes we've struggled (e.g. VaTech, Clemson).

If anyone saw the UVA / VPI game last night, you saw that down the stretch UVA went small and played a very un-UVA like offense. Perrantes would repeatedly run a ball screen and get a Hokie big man to switch onto him, and then Perrantes would take him 1-on-1 to the basket for a layup or foul. Will Duke handle this better than VPI did?

The second thing that's different about this UVA team is how often their defense is forcing turnovers. Prior to this season, Tony Bennett had never had a top-100 defense at forcing turnovers. This season? They are 38th in the country and 2nd in the conference behind Florida St. at forcing turnovers.

And that usually wouldn't even be a major concern, except that THIS Duke team has had turnover issues in conference play, which I've mentioned before. I could easily see our guys making poor passes and decisions against the Pack Line, including overpenetrating and getting stripped by a Pack wing.

So, here would be my keys to the game:
(1) Defending UVA's 4-guard lineup well, if they decide to give up Blocker/Mover and just spread Duke out and drive.
(2) Limiting turnovers against the Pack Line. Make the right pass at the right time. When UVA is locked in on defense, it'll feel like you can only get one penetrating dribble before they've collapsed on you. Be prepared to do one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick, one-dribble-kick.
(3) Making a good percentage of our threes.

I expect a loss because I think one or more of those things will break down.
Huge game tonight.

I've been feeling better and better about this game as the week has proceeded. I think writing down my concerns about why this UVA team is different has helped. But at this point, I do think Duke will play defense against UVA's 4-guard offense okay*, and I do think Duke will make the right decisions and passes to avoid too many turnovers against the Pack Line.

So, I'm going to call this game a toss-up that just depends on Duke's 3-pt shooting. Hard to pull off a win in Charlottesville if you don't shoot the ball well. Luckily, we're a program that shoots the ball well.

* Highly recommend not switching ball screens when UVA goes 4 guards. It's possible a healthy Amile could guard Perrantes okay 1-on-1, but he's not healthy. Have Amile hedge** so Matt can get back on Perrantes.

** With Perrantes' outstanding shooting ability, including deeeep range, the coaches won't be comfortable with a flat or dropback scheme. It's going to be hedge, switch, or trap on the ball screen.

[dukelifer]

Huge game tonight.

I've been feeling better and better about this game as the week has proceeded. I think writing down my concerns about why this UVA team is different has helped. But at this point, I do think Duke will play defense against UVA's 4-guard offense okay*, and I do think Duke will make the right decisions and passes to avoid too many turnovers against the Pack Line.

So, I'm going to call this game a toss-up that just depends on Duke's 3-pt shooting. Hard to pull off a win in Charlottesville if you don't shoot the ball well. Luckily, we're a program that shoots the ball well.

* Highly recommend not switching ball screens when UVA goes 4 guards. It's possible a healthy Amile could guard Perrantes okay 1-on-1, but he's not healthy. Have Amile hedge** so Matt can get back on Perrantes.

** With Perrantes' outstanding shooting ability, including deeeep range, the coaches won't be comfortable with a flat or dropback scheme. It's going to be hedge, switch, or trap on the ball screen.

This is a game where Duke needs to maintain contact and play very smart- limiting turnovers and other mistakes. UVa is a very good and disciplined team. Duke has the athletes to match them and if Duke shoots wel- they should be able to stay close. Will be a big test to see where this team is right now. Duke should be hitting their stride.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Without much confidence in tonight's game. Feels like the teams are headed in opposite directions. I think Duke wins by 8-10 points.

[superdave]

Without much confidence in tonight's game. Feels like the teams are headed in opposite directions. I think Duke wins by 8-10 points.

A reverse jinx wont work on this message board, because none of us are superstitious.

[BandAlum83]

A reverse jinx wont work on this message board, because none of us are superstitious.

What he said.

[Neals384]

1) Is the pack-line defense intrinsically better, or is Virginia's year-to-year effectiveness a matter of good coaching and suitable players?
2) Is the pack-line made more effective by recent changes in officiating, or less?
3) For a coach planning to use the pack-line defense, what does he look for in recruits?
4) If the pack-line is so good, why aren't there more copy-cats?

[Henderson]

I'm pretty relaxed about this game. Expectations are low. Duke is about a 5 point underdog. A win would be perceived as an overachievement. A loss would be about par. And I'm more interested in development than results right now.

We're not going to be shut out of the NCAA tourney, and this is preparation time. Get better. Get healthy.

A better seed in the ACC Tourney would be a great get. A better seed in the NCAA tourney would be a great get.

But I'm more interested in seeing the team improve with a view to the tournaments than I am about a win tonight. I certainly don't subscribe to any "must win" point of view.

I'm looking for signs that this team will be ready to roll next month. In some circumstances, being ready to roll now is a projection of how ready you will be to roll in March. But this season, with this team, it's more the arc of development that's important to me.

[DarkstarWahoo]

1) Is the pack-line defense intrinsically better, or is Virginia's year-to-year effectiveness a matter of good coaching and suitable players?
2) Is the pack-line made more effective by recent changes in officiating, or less?
3) For a coach planning to use the pack-line defense, what does he look for in recruits?
4) If the pack-line is so good, why aren't there more copy-cats?

1. Little from A, little from B. I think the defensive efficiency rankings point to its value as a defense, period, but from the eye test, this year's D isn't as good as it has been in the past, and that's probably attributable to Malcolm Brogdon not being around any more to lock fools down. Inside defense has also been a problem relative to previous years, with UVA's post players ranging from undersized (Isaiah Wilkins) to mistake-prone (Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite) to Jarred Reuter (Jarred Reuter). But the fact that the efficiency is still so high without that standout defender (although Wilkins does his best and Diakite will be there eventually) points to the underlying effectiveness of the system. Semi-related: screw Austin Nichols.
2. Less, but not markedly so, depending on officiating.
3. Strength, intelligence and willingness to learn. UVA's defensive success has been based a lot on the players just being physically stronger than opponents. It's why Mike Curtis, the strength coach, is the true unsung hero of the program. Note that the defense takes a hit when Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy play together, because they're just not that strong.
4. It lends itself to a slower game, which isn't for everyone. Supposedly, Markelle Fultz never seriously considered UVA because he didn't want to give that kind of effort on defense. And no one has won a championship playing it, which I imagine would lead to copycats. There's a reason a program like UVA, with no history of success, is the main school known for it (although I don't know why it's not more publicly associated with Arizona). The blue bloods can win without "resorting" to that kind of style (again, Arizona is the exception here).

[DukieInBrasil]

A reverse jinx wont work on this message board, because none of us are superstitious.

nobody around here wears special shirts to bring Duke a win, or sits in a certain chair, or drinks particular carbonated beverages to bring about certain outcomes. No sir. None of that here.

[kAzE]

nobody around here wears special shirts to bring Duke a win, or sits in a certain chair, or drinks particular carbonated beverages to bring about certain outcomes. No sir. None of that here.

. . . or forces their family members sit in certain positions, bans certain colors from being present in the room, or angles TV remotes in a certain direction.

. . . I may have a problem.

[Indoor66]

. . . or makes their family members sit in certain positions, bans certain colors from being present in the room, or angles TV remotes in a certain direction.

I may have a problem.

Not at all!

[flyingdutchdevil]

That's a relatively narrow range of possible outcomes. Basically you're saying UVA will win by 1,2,3, or 4. The odds would be against you -- while it's possible for that range to hit, one would rather be on the side of "UVA covers the spread or Duke wins."

Yup. It'll be a close game - as all UVa-Duke games are - but I have a feeling luck won't be on our side this time around (which it most certainly has in the past against UVa).

[NYBri]

A reverse jinx wont work on this message board, because none of us are superstitious.

*knock on wood*

[Neals384]

1. Little from A, little from B. I think the defensive efficiency rankings point to its value as a defense, period, but from the eye test, this year's D isn't as good as it has been in the past, and that's probably attributable to Malcolm Brogdon not being around any more to lock fools down. Inside defense has also been a problem relative to previous years, with UVA's post players ranging from undersized (Isaiah Wilkins) to mistake-prone (Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite) to Jarred Reuter (Jarred Reuter). But the fact that the efficiency is still so high without that standout defender (although Wilkins does his best and Diakite will be there eventually) points to the underlying effectiveness of the system. Semi-related: screw Austin Nichols.
2. Less, but not markedly so, depending on officiating.
3. Strength, intelligence and willingness to learn. UVA's defensive success has been based a lot on the players just being physically stronger than opponents. It's why Mike Curtis, the strength coach, is the true unsung hero of the program. Note that the defense takes a hit when Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy play together, because they're just not that strong.
4. It lends itself to a slower game, which isn't for everyone. Supposedly, Markelle Fultz never seriously considered UVA because he didn't want to give that kind of effort on defense. And no one has won a championship playing it, which I imagine would lead to copycats. There's a reason a program like UVA, with no history of success, is the main school known for it (although I don't know why it's not more publicly associated with Arizona). The blue bloods can win without "resorting" to that kind of style (again, Arizona is the exception here).


Good analysis, thank you!

[uh_no]

. . . or forces their family members sit in certain positions, bans certain colors from being present in the room, or angles TV remotes in a certain direction.

. . . I may have a problem.

i've worn the same shirt to every duke game i've ever been to :D

yes it gets washed....but it's loss count is still in single figures...in 4 years as a student it saw 1 natty and only 3 losses.
pitt MSG 2007
UNC 2008
UNC 2009

since:
UL 2013
miami 2015
nd 2016
cuse 2016
UNC 2016
NCSU 2017

it's more "duke rarely loses at home" than anything else!

[BandAlum83]

nobody around here wears special shirts to bring Duke a win, or sits in a certain chair, or drinks particular carbonated beverages to bring about certain outcomes. No sir. None of that here.

And writing

Go Duke!!!

bolded, in pt size 5 with exactly three exclamation points (no more, no less) in this particular color with no other comment in each of the last 5 pregame threads has nothing to do with the current 5 game winning streak.

[BandAlum83]

Yup. It'll be a close game - as all UVa-Duke games are - but I have a feeling luck won't be on our side this time around (which it most certainly has in the past against UVa).

I would agree with the bolded part. Luck will not be a factor in this game. We will just plain out-play them.

No luck required.

[niveklaen]

And writing

Go Duke!!!

bolded, in pt size 5 with exactly three exclamation points (no more, no less) in this particular color with no other comment in each of the last 5 pregame threads has nothing to do with the current 5 game winning streak.

...and its not like this board has a version 3 jinx thread after having maxed out the previous two...

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?38809-The-quot-I-m-not-going-to-jinx-it-quot-thread-v3-0

[weezie]

We're going to the game! Found out we have some sweeeeet seats.
Yay!

[BandAlum83]

We're going to the game! Found out we have some sweeeeet seats.
Yay!

Enjoy! Scream until you cant scream no more for our guys!!

[DarkstarWahoo]

We're going to the game! Found out we have some sweeeeet seats.
Yay!

Enjoy! You need restaurant recs or anything?

[gam7]

We're going to the game! Found out we have some sweeeeet seats.
Yay!


Enjoy! You need restaurant recs or anything?

White Spot. Order a Gus Burger. You can thank me later.

[DarkstarWahoo]

White Spot. Order a Gus Burger. You can thank me later.

This man is not wrong.

[Listen to Quants]

1. Little from A, little from B. I think the defensive efficiency rankings point to its value as a defense, period, but from the eye test, this year's D isn't as good as it has been in the past, and that's probably attributable to Malcolm Brogdon not being around any more to lock fools down. Inside defense has also been a problem relative to previous years, with UVA's post players ranging from undersized (Isaiah Wilkins) to mistake-prone (Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite) to Jarred Reuter (Jarred Reuter). But the fact that the efficiency is still so high without that standout defender (although Wilkins does his best and Diakite will be there eventually) points to the underlying effectiveness of the system. Semi-related: screw Austin Nichols.
2. Less, but not markedly so, depending on officiating.
3. Strength, intelligence and willingness to learn. UVA's defensive success has been based a lot on the players just being physically stronger than opponents. It's why Mike Curtis, the strength coach, is the true unsung hero of the program. Note that the defense takes a hit when Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy play together, because they're just not that strong.
4. It lends itself to a slower game, which isn't for everyone. Supposedly, Markelle Fultz never seriously considered UVA because he didn't want to give that kind of effort on defense. And no one has won a championship playing it, which I imagine would lead to copycats. There's a reason a program like UVA, with no history of success, is the main school known for it (although I don't know why it's not more publicly associated with Arizona). The blue bloods can win without "resorting" to that kind of style (again, Arizona is the exception here).

Thoughtful, and a nice point about physical strength. Thanks.
I'd also note that having a 'unique' defense is an advantage since defeating any defense is obviously aided by some defensive-specific tactics.

[DukeWarhead]

No black unis, please. Go blue. GO Duke.

[Devilwin]

Could be an awesome night. We win, coupled with the big upset in Raleigh tonight. Could be very sweet..:cool:

[Indoor66]

Go Duke!

Let's Go State!

[kmspeaks]

We're going to the game! Found out we have some sweeeeet seats.
Yay!

Have fun! The last few times I've been to JPJ the event staff collectively seemed to have a stick up their hind quarters, hope you have a better experience and get to see the good guys win.

[Furniture]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7187&stc=1Let's wet the appetite.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/831982924891377665/video/1

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7187&stc=1Let's wet the appetite.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/831982924891377665/video/1

Ew...

Let's whet it instead.

Let's go Duke!

[duketaylor]

Nope, no superstition at all, well, maybe a little.

About to change into a Duke shirt and get ready, nothing more crazie than that!! As a Richmond Devil I encounter plenty of rational Hoos. Their true passion is more against VT and unc most of the time-not always;)

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[brevity]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7187&stc=1

Fitting that the John Paul Jones Arena* has its staff set up drums for a rhythm section. But where's the bassist?

*I suspected that the arena was not named for a member of Led Zeppelin, but today I learned it's not named for the Revolutionary War guy either.

[Tripping William]

Fitting that the John Paul Jones Arena* has its staff set up drums for a rhythm section. But where's the bassist?

*I suspected that the arena was not named for a member of Led Zeppelin, but today I learned it's not named for the Revolutionary War guy either.

I've seen Stefan Lessard in there many times. Doubt he's in the house tonight, though.

[lotusland]

Random question:

Has Austin Nichols transferred? If so, will he have to sit out another year at a division 1 school? Or is he going to declare for the draft? Assuming he wants to play basketball again that is.

[jacone21]

Nope. Not superstitious. Not me. No sir.

7188

[BandAlum83]

Anyone know actual tipoff time? Will they hold it up for end of kansas state game?

[jacone21]

Anyone know actual tipoff time? Will they hold it up for end of kansas state game?

9:10. They won't hold it up.

[BandAlum83]

9:10. They won't hold it up.

They either show it on watchespn or espnnews in that case

We will be OK if kansas state doesn't turn it into a foul-fest

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/UVA...

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-virginia-basketball-live-stats-02152017

[60sDukie]

Foul fest.

[Kjeffrey]

Foul fest.

Certainly not on Virginia. They are often allowed to use the arm bar and rarely get called.

[fc3]

slightly OT, flipping to Nuggets game during commercials, Mason just had a highlight reel alley oop dunk on a fast break in his first game as a nugget! Back to your regular programming...

[rsvman]

Slow start...2 points in the first six and a half minutes.
Looking better over the last few minutes, though.

[CDu]

Two on Jefferson. Looks like we will get to see a lot of Giles this half.

[downeastdad]

Bilas seems to have lost interest in the game already.

[LasVegas]

I'd rather duke not even play UVA anymore. Win or lose, it's not even fun to watch.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Gonna be a grind. Good news - held them to 25. Bad news, we have 21.

[subzero02]

Freaking ankle tweak by Allen to end a frustrating half... we are playing good defense... I see lots of positives but we should have the lead.

[BigZ]

Virginia plays Bush league basketball. Worst offense I've ever seen

[BigZ]

There is a reason Virginia always chocks in the tournament

[CDu]

There is a reason Virginia always chocks in the tournament

Chocks?

[kmspeaks]

I'd rather duke not even play UVA anymore. Win or lose, it's not even fun to watch.

Yea I'll never understand people who say they enjoy watching Virginia play. It's not an offense versus defense thing, I just don't enjoy watching a bunch of pushing and shoving disguised as "basketball."

[Channing]

Really good defense by our guys. Offense was a struggle though. I know UVA is terrific, but just no flow.

Maybe I am missing something but there is a lot of contact that looks to be going uncalled

[subzero02]

There is a reason Virginia always chocks in the tournament

Rock chock Jayhawk...

[SCMatt33]

Well not much could have gone worse offensively. You know stuff will be tough inside the paint with UVA, but you can't afford unforced perimeter travels, 5 second calls, bad perimeter passing. These things aren't UVA's doing. Despite all that, you're only down 4 on the road in a game where your an underdog and the home team got everything they could have asked for stylistically. Like I can't think of anything else UVA could have realistically asked for style, pace, physical play in post let go, but offensive motion tightly called. It's a dream scenario for them, but we're right there.

[sbroc012]

This game is hard to watch. Refs definitely allow UVA's defense to be slightly better than it really is. Their rotations are spot on there should be a few more calls made on the hedges and body checks on drives. K will figure out the offense at half and as long as D sustains, should be ok.

[Kjeffrey]

This game is hard to watch. Refs definitely allow UVA's defense to be slightly better than it really is. Their rotations are spot on there should be a few more calls made on the hedges and body checks on drives. K will figure out the offense at half and as long as D sustains, should be ok.

It is so frustrating because they are allowed to get away with contact for which others are called.

[LasVegas]

Would be a nice game for Kennard to do his thing and hit 10 shots in a row. I've noticed there are a lot of times where our bigs are begging for an entry pass and get snubbed. Wide open on the pick and roll too. Maybe the guards don't have confidence in them. I think amile has done a great job with limited opportunities and Giles has been good as well.

[-bdbd]

Ugly, ugly basketball.

Serious question: do refs feel like they have to keep foul totals roughly even? I think a team playing a physical brand of ball has a distinct advantage in a game like this, especially when playing at home (as the home crowd will react as the foul total gets more lopsided against them). Not fair, but it is what it is. Duke needs to adapt.

[CDu]

Would be a nice game for Kennard to do his thing and hit 10 shots in a row. I've noticed there are a lot of times where our bigs are begging for an entry pass and get snubbed. Wide open on the pick and roll too. Maybe the guards don't have confidence in them. I think amile has done a great job with limited opportunities and Giles has been good as well.

Doesn't help that the last two times we threw it in to those guys resulted in a weakly missed layup (Bolden) and a fumble out of bounds (Giles).

[Billy Dat]

I'd rather duke not even play UVA anymore. Win or lose, it's not even fun to watch.

They are especially brutal to watch this year when they lack star power...we are letting them dictate the game too much and we are turning it over too much. Hopefully the offense comes out with some POP. We can't look for whistles because it feels like they won't come.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We need someone (Tatum? Kennard? Jackson?) to hit 3 in a row and change the whole tenor of this game.

[sbroc012]

Ugly, ugly basketball.

Serious question: do refs feel like they have to keep foul totals roughly even? I think a team playing a physical brand of ball has a distinct advantage in a game like this, especially when playing at home (as the home crowd will react as the foul total gets more lopsided against them). Not fair, but it is what it is. Duke needs to adapt.

Part of me thinks it's a relative thing. If the game starts out physical and the first foul isn't called until something overly physical occurs then you can assume the game is going to be allowed to remain physical. Whereas if a ticky tack foul is called first that sets the standard. I just wish it could be called the same from game to game rather than letting the game itself dictate how it's called. Follow the rule book.

[rsvman]

Rough start and rough finish. In between, we played some pretty good ball.

If we have another five or six minute drought, we will lose the game. We need to keep scoring.

[jv001]

Lucky to be down only 4 points. Luke and Grayson with 3 points each. Luke 1-6 and Grayson 1-7. Those two guys will have to hit some 3 points shots or we're in deep deep dodo. Luke not playing stellar defense and he must have went to sleep on the clock by waltzing the ball up court as time was ticking away. Maybe he was thinking about fixing his hair at half time. :cool: Grayson hustling for a rebound and it looked like he twisted his ankle. Frank played a good first half and is coming along. I wish I could say the same for Harry. Late in the first half, Tatum and Giles had back to back turnovers that really hurt. GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We need someone (Tatum? Kennard? Jackson?) to hit 3 in a row and change the whole tenor of this game.

Or... Matt

[CDu]

Great start to the half, then Jefferson commits his third dumb foul (and fourth of the game). Grrr.

[rsvman]

What kind of a call was that on Jefferson? Horrible.

[kshepinthehouse]

What kind of a call was that on Jefferson? Horrible.

Pretty sure he hit his arm

[CDu]

What kind of a call was that on Jefferson? Horrible.

He high-fived Perrantes. Easy call. Dumb foul.

[CDu]

Giles stepping up. Playing big just when we need him.

[sbroc012]

He high-fived Perrantes. Easy call. Dumb foul.

Yea he did slightly. My gripe with it is with everything else they haven't called and they blow the whistle on that

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Giles playing good D.

UVa offensive rebounds hurt more than most.

[Billy Dat]

I agree with Collins that I'd like to see us throw it in to Harry a little, just to collapse that D. We're too outside right now...and drive Jayson...DRIVE!

[CDu]

Giles playing good D.

UVa offensive rebounds hurt more than most.

Especially given that they don't normally get them.

[LasVegas]

Doesn't help that the last two times we threw it in to those guys resulted in a weakly missed layup (Bolden) and a fumble out of bounds (Giles).

Absolutely, but I might have a stroke if I see one more wide open roller going to the basket that doesn't get the ball

[davekay1971]

Yea he did slightly. My gripe with it is with everything else they haven't called and they blow the whistle on that

You mean like Matt getting fouled twice on the way up for his shot about a minute later?

Still, careless foul by Amile when he's already sitting on 3 and it's early in the 2nd half. Big chance for Giles to show how far he's come.

[CDu]

You mean like Matt getting fouled twice on the way up for his shot about a minute later?

Still, careless foul by Amile when he's already sitting on 3 and it's early in the 2nd half. Big chance for Giles to show how far he's come.

It is especially dumb considering it had no potential benefit. The shot was up, he was way too far to actually contest. Just raise your hands and hope he misses.

[Billy Dat]

Man, we had a few good looks at 3 to bust this thing open and now its back to a one posession game. We have had a lot of chances to take control and have wasted them. Grayson can't go under the screen there either

[bleedingblue88]

Grayson and Kennard are seriously killing us with their bad shooting tonight. This is a very winnable game, I don't think their defense is bothering us that much, we just need to make more open shots.

[kshepinthehouse]

Play through Luke and we will be okay. That's what got us the lead.

[rsvman]

I could be blind, but I'm pretty sure Allen was not out of bounds on that steal.

[subzero02]

Every time we drive into the lane we are getting bumped below the waist...no calls

[Billy Dat]

Can we finish a defensive possession? Come on guys, rebound!!!!!

[rsvman]

Man they are getting a lot of offensive rebounds.

[davekay1971]

Man buns should be illegal.

[bleedingblue88]

Amile Jefferson seems to be a nonfactor these days. Wouldn't be surprised if Giles replaces him by end of year

[davekay1971]

Spontaneous bleeding by Kennard. No foul led to that...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Luke is tough

[Tripping William]

These two defenses are REALLY gettin' after it.

[Billy Dat]

I think we looked better that stretch where we had Jackson and Giles in for Amile and Allen. I wish we'd gone with that group a little longer, but who knows.

We need to get Jayson some more touches.

[kshepinthehouse]

Amile Jefferson seems to be a nonfactor these days. Wouldn't be surprised if Giles replaces him by end of year

He came out hot, I thought he was gonna be his old self. Scores two quick buckets but quiet since. These turnovers last couple of possessions ar killing us. Would be nice to at least get a shot up.

[CDu]

Man they are getting a lot of offensive rebounds.

If someone told me we would dominate UNC on their offensive glass and get killed by UVa on their offensive glass, well, I would say they were crazy.

[gocanes0506]

Amile Jefferson seems to be a nonfactor these days. Wouldn't be surprised if Giles replaces him by end of year

Tbh if we gave any big man the ball more they would be more of a factor. Amile has very good moves but doesn't touch it very much. Even Mr. Collins has begged for our big men to get more touches.

[rsvman]

Bad turnover by Luke. Trying to rash take over the game, but he's been held pretty well in check by this very physical defense.

[bleedingblue88]

Tatum!!

[CDu]

NBA talent. That is all.

[Billy Dat]

TATUM!!!!! HoooooooRay! Take your ugly ball UVA!

[arnie]

Zowie!

[Tripping William]

Where's that "How 'bout some love for Jayson Tatum?" thread?

[rsvman]

Jayson Tatum!!!!

[kshepinthehouse]

Anyone else still wurstioning why we have Tatum at the 4?

[DU82]

Chocks?

That's what they put the tractor on.

[davekay1971]

I just read on IMDB that DC has decided to change course and will be casting Jason Tatum as the Man of Steel...

[Stray Gator]

We knew what to expect coming into this game. Virginia plays as rough as the officials will allow, and they prosper at home because Virginia's home crowd is like FSU fans -- they boo every call or no-call that goes against their team, knowing that eventually the officials will be influenced and become reluctant to whistle the home team's "physical" play. (Note that Virginia has lost its last three games on the road.) I thought the slanted officiating for Virginia in the ACC Championship game that they won against Duke was about as bad as I had ever seen it in this conference, at least since Dean retired. This is worse. And yet our guys are showing the mental toughness that's essential to win in March, when Duke often needs to overcome an unfriendly crowd and inconsistent officiating. Regardless of the outcome, I'm very satisfied with the progress we've witnessed by this team tonight.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Or... Matt

Or Tatum.

Killer game by Tatum

[wavedukefan70s]

We grew up some.glad to see it.tatum wow.

[davekay1971]

Or Tatum.

Killer game by Tatum

Tatum showed tonight that, when he is on, he is simply unstoppable. Those 2nd half threes, all defended, were brutal.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Tatum has turned a corner. Playing great ball.

[Billy Dat]

Also brutal is this end game. Thank god we are hitting our free throwa . There are probably more possessions in this last 1:30 than the prior 10:00.

[arnie]

Big boy win - foul us, we will make throws.