Phase V: Clemson - UNC II

[DavidBenAkiva]

Overview
Greetings DBR! Continuing our tradition (of one year) of sharing the Phase posts, I am taking the torch for Phase V from superdave. Great work superdave! This phase covers the final third of the ACC schedule, including home games against Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida State; and tough road games at Miami, suddenly scorching Syracuse, Virginia, and UNC. It ain’t going to be easy, but it does offer Duke a number of opportunities to gather more resume-building victories (by the way, who has the better resume right now, Duke or Kentucky?).

If you read some of my posts on DBR over the years, you might have noticed my love of advanced statistical analysis. I like numbers and what they tell us about the game. As such, this post is going to take a dive into the stats. Fortunately, we are nearing a point in the season in which those stats are starting to tell us about this team. The sample size is providing sufficient raw material at this time of year to help us understand what this team does well and what it doesn’t.

The Health Thing
We have to talk about it because it has been one of the biggest stories of the season. Can Duke stay healthy? Things are looking good in this department. The team had all of its players available (sans Sean Obi, of course) against UNC and looked every bit the healthy team. In after comments before or after the game (can’t recall which at the moment), Coach K noted that Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones didn’t practice with the team this week. Jayson Tatum has been a fixture of the rotation since returning in December, and Harry Giles and Marques Bolden appear to be members of the 8-man rotation at the moment. Chase Jeter hasn’t logged a minute since the game in mid-January against Louisville, although he has dressed and been available for a few games now. More or less, the team is as healthy now as it has been all season. Maintaining or even improving in this area could do wonders for the team with Selection Sunday a mere 3 weeks and some change away as of the time of this writing.

Where Does Duke Excel?
Duke can score the basketball. The team is 11th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency, which takes into account pace of play. This is a step down from last season, surprisingly, when Duke ended up as the 4th most efficient scoring offense in the country. In fact, Duke hasn’t ended a season outside of the top 10 in this stat since 2008. What gives?

My first guess is 3 point shooting. It’s odd to admit this as the team features a high volume shooter making a ridiculous 45.6% on 3 point attempts. As a team, however, Duke is shooting 37.3%, which is good for 72nd in the country. Making deep shots is a huge area for improvement for this team, one that could vault it back into the top of the rankings. Fortunately, this stat has been improving for several players besides Luke, but more on that later.

Another area of excellence is on the defensive side of the 3-point line. Duke is 11th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense and in the top 10 in limiting 3 point makes per game on the season at just 5.2 per match. They run shooters off the line as well as anyone. They allow 30.2% from beyond the arc, down from 34% a season ago. Part of this might be attributable to the size of the players. Frank Jackson and Grayson Allen are the shortest regulars on the team and they go 6’4” each. It’s tougher for smaller guards to shoot over that size. An example of this was the Kansas game. The Jayhawks are 5th in the country in 3 point percentage at 41.5% per game. They shot a very poor 2 for 17 from beyond the arc in that game (which may be attributable to travel to a certain degree). Their backcourt of Frank Mason and DeVonte’ Graham goes 5’11” and 6’2”, respectively. Other hot-shooting 3-point teams faced by Duke include Notre Dame (39.6% on the season/7-21 against Duke) and Michigan State (39.0% on the season/5-16 against Duke).

Where Does Duke Suffer?
There are some areas where Duke lags, of course. Without a true point guard, Duke is not very good at assisting on made field goals, ranking 257th in the country. Fortunately, the team is up to 56.8% in the past 3 games, which would put them in the top 75 (or just a shade under UNC’s average in this stat) for the entire season. It’s something to watch over the the final phase of the regular season and a sign that Grayson Allen as lead facilitator is working.

There aren’t many other areas where Duke really struggles using the traditional stats. This is a better defensive team than last season and closer to 2013 and 2015 than the even-numbered years. With a healthy Amile Jefferson, Jayson Tatum, and Matt Jones, the team can continue to improve in this area, too. A healthy Chase Jeter could shore up the team’s defense further. While he has been of limited effectiveness on the offensive side of the court, Jeter leads the team in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, led largely by an elite 6.9% block rate. Adding him in for even 10-15 minutes a game (or if Bolden and/or Giles could approach that rate) could really help Duke shore up the interior defense and erase some mistakes.

Who’s In (the Rotation)?
With Coach K back on the sideline and the end of the regular season approaching, it’s clear that some players have made their way into the rotation while others are outside looking in. A couple of big men also see their status in limbo.

As is his wont, Coach K has settled on a frustratingly short rotation consisting of 4 guards (Allen, Jackson, Jones, and Kennard), a swing wing in Jayson Tatum, a combo forward in Amile Jefferson, and a backup big in Harry Giles. Giles was starting at the onset of ACC play but has settled into a 6th/7th man role of late, playing a few minutes per half. Riding a short rotation is nothing new to K, of course, but it seems that this rotation is less problematic than previous years. With all the injuries incurred, it doesn’t seem that any player is wearing down. Allen, Jefferson, and Tatum have all missed at least a few games and are appearing quite springy late in games. Allen has made several big shots late in games of late (more on that later). Jefferson has shown flashes of brushing off the bone bruise. Tatum, despite some mental mistakes, hasn’t appeared to slow down playing heavy minutes at the forward spot. While a 7-man rotation displayed obvious fatigue in 2015-16, no such signs appear this season. Still, it’s an area of concern.

A trio of big men appear on the bubble of cracking the rotation, including Marques Bolden, Chase Jeter, and the surprising Antonio Vrankovic. Bolden, after suffering knee swelling at the end of the exhibition period, has yet to consistently play for Duke. He’s looked good at pick-and-roll defense in a few minutes here or there, but has’t displayed a sense of rhythm with his teammates. It’s possible he’ll see the floor against taller teams, like against UNC, but it doesn’t appear that he will find his way into the rotation consistently this season.

Hot and Cold
Duke has areas of improvement, in particular in 3 point shooting. Let’s start with the All-American, Grayson Allen. His shooting is far below the elite level he achieved in 2015-16, when he knocked down 41.7% from deep and over 50% from inside the arc. There have been signs of life of late! Allen made 20 of 41 (48.8%) between the Wake Forest and UNC games, including late in the games. He’s also been dishing out assists and rebounding well from the guard spot.

Matt Jones has also found his shooting stroke in conference games, connecting on 36.0% during ACC play to date. That’s below his 41.5% as a junior, so there’s improvement to be made. Still, any offensive contribution from Jones is found money. Those heady defensive plays are also quite a contribution.

And then there’s Luke Kennard. In ACC play, he is hitting an astounding 50.0% form 3, 57.9% from inside the arc, and a ludicrous offensive rating of 135.8. For reference, Buddy Hield had an offensive rating of 123.8 for the season last year. It’s hard to overstate how great an offensive game Kennard is displaying at the moment. He scores from all three levels - beyond the arc, inside the arc, and at the rim. He’s a truly special player.

I also want to give a shoutout to Jayson Tatum. He was maligned among the Duke faithful for his seemingly me-first attitude, but his play of late has been superb. He isn’t taking nearly as many mid-range fadeaways of late (I counted 2 in the UNC game) and seems to only shoot from deep when he is set and open. Everything else is going to the rim. Brandon Ingram shot the ball better last year from deep last season, but in every other way, you could make an argument that Tatum is just as good or better. He’s better inside the arc at 49.3%, at the free throw line at 85.0%, and his assists, blocks, and steals are all comparable or better. And Tatum is definitely a better rebounding and one-on-one defender. He’s a really amazing talent that seems to be moving into a do-everything role that Duke needs right now. Playing off of Kennard and Allen, Tatum should be focused on exploiting matchups and generating fast breaks. There’s been more of that lately, which is a great sign to see from the young man. The sky is the limit.

Let’s go Duke!

[devilnfla]

Hope the boys are ready tomorrow. Classic trap game.

[Kedsy]

Duke can score the basketball. The team is 11th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency, which takes into account pace of play. This is a step down from last season, surprisingly, when Duke ended up as the 4th most efficient scoring offense in the country. In fact, Duke hasn’t ended a season outside of the top 10 in this stat since 2008. What gives?

My first guess is 3 point shooting...

Nice work, DBA. You've brought up a lot of good points.

One thing I disagree with is that it's our 3-point shooting that's dragging down our offensive efficiency. Our 37.3% 3-pt shooting is better than our #8 offense in 2012 (37.1%), our #7 offense in 2009 (34.9%), and is virtually the same as our #6 offense in 2011 (37.4%). Moreover, we've been shooting an excellent 39.4% from three-land in conference play, but in conference play our offensive efficiency rank in Pomeroy dropped from #3 in late December to #11 now.

Put another way, if we took last year's 38.5% from three and applied it to our current 22 three-point attempts per game, we'd have made 0.25 additional threes per game, which comes to 0.75 points per game more, or .011 more points per possession. That's a raw number and I don't know what Pomeroy would adjust it to, but at best I'd guess it would put us up to maybe #8 (from #11), tied for our worst (with 2012) since we were last out of the top ten in 2008 (#14).

So if it's not three-point shooting, what is causing our modest drop in offensive efficiency? While I agree that Jayson Tatum is a great player and is playing very well the past few games, I'd argue he's the difference here. He's our highest usage player (27.7% usage rate), taking the most shots per 100 possessions on the team (22.4, two full shots more per 100 possessions than either Luke or Grayson), but he has the team's 9th best oRtg (108.7), 7th best TO% (16.0%), 7th best a/to ratio (0.75:1), and 11th best eFG% (48.7%). Although he does a lot of good things, he's just not a very efficient player on offense, and I think that's more likely the reason why we're a borderline top 10 efficient offense instead of a solid top 5 efficient offense. Whether the difference between #4 and #11 matters very much, I don't really know.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Nice work, DBA. You've brought up a lot of good points.

One thing I disagree with is that it's our 3-point shooting that's dragging down our offensive efficiency. Our 37.3% 3-pt shooting is better than our #8 offense in 2012 (37.1%), our #7 offense in 2009 (34.9%), and is virtually the same as our #6 offense in 2011 (37.4%). Moreover, we've been shooting an excellent 39.4% from three-land in conference play, but in conference play our offensive efficiency rank in Pomeroy dropped from #3 in late December to #11 now.

Put another way, if we took last year's 38.5% from three and applied it to our current 22 three-point attempts per game, we'd have made 0.25 additional threes per game, which comes to 0.75 points per game more, or .011 more points per possession. That's a raw number and I don't know what Pomeroy would adjust it to, but at best I'd guess it would put us up to maybe #8 (from #11), tied for our worst (with 2012) since we were last out of the top ten in 2008 (#14).

So if it's not three-point shooting, what is causing our modest drop in offensive efficiency? While I agree that Jayson Tatum is a great player and is playing very well the past few games, I'd argue he's the difference here. He's our highest usage player (27.7% usage rate), taking the most shots per 100 possessions on the team (22.4, two full shots more per 100 possessions than either Luke or Grayson), but he has the team's 9th best oRtg (108.7), 7th best TO% (16.0%), 7th best a/to ratio (0.75:1), and 11th best eFG% (48.7%). Although he does a lot of good things, he's just not a very efficient player on offense, and I think that's more likely the reason why we're a borderline top 10 efficient offense instead of a solid top 5 efficient offense. Whether the difference between #4 and #11 matters very much, I don't really know.

Great points all! I think and I hope that we will see a more efficient offense as Tatum gets used to playing opposite Grayson and Luke. I was encouraged the see Jayson facilitate the offense more and get to the foul line. Getting to the free throw line and making those shots can make your team super efficient. Your odds of scoring on possessions that end at the free throw line are much higher, after all. Grayson was particularly effective at this last season, in which he averaged 11.2 attempts per 100 possessions. He's down in that category this year 9.2, which still isn't bad, but it's a drop. It is a team game, after all, and one player doesn't account for all the factors that determine a team's efficiency.

To whit, Duke's free throw attempts and free throw ranks in the 2014-15 through 2016-17 seasons is below, for comparison:

2014-15: 873 FTA (7th most in the country), 610 FTM (6th)
2015-16: 866 FTA (16th), 626 FTM (13th)
2016-17: 561 FTA (77th), 419 FTM (45th)

One of the things making this hard to judge is the way in which the roster has changed so much throughout the season. Duke has averaged 18.5 FTA over the past 4 games, which is down from the average of 24.5 on the season. To get to a more efficient offense, Luke, Grayson, and Jayson could do a lot better job of getting to the foul line.

[jv001]

Great points all! I think and I hope that we will see a more efficient offense as Tatum gets used to playing opposite Grayson and Luke. I was encouraged the see Jayson facilitate the offense more and get to the foul line. Getting to the free throw line and making those shots can make your team super efficient. Your odds of scoring on possessions that end at the free throw line are much higher, after all. Grayson was particularly effective at this last season, in which he averaged 11.2 attempts per 100 possessions. He's down in that category this year 9.2, which still isn't bad, but it's a drop. It is a team game, after all, and one player doesn't account for all the factors that determine a team's efficiency.

To whit, Duke's free throw attempts and free throw ranks in the 2014-15 through 2016-17 seasons is below, for comparison:

2014-15: 873 FTA (7th most in the country), 610 FTM (6th)
2015-16: 866 FTA (16th), 626 FTM (13th)
2016-17: 561 FTA (77th), 419 FTM (45th)

One of the things making this hard to judge is the way in which the roster has changed so much throughout the season. Duke has averaged 18.5 FTA over the past 4 games, which is down from the average of 24.5 on the season. To get to a more efficient offense, Luke, Grayson, and Jayson could do a lot better job of getting to the foul line.

And the refs could do a lot better job of blowing the whistle when Luke, Grayson and Jayson get fouled going to the basket. But I guess that won't happen because it was the same way when JJ was playing. He needed a break-away jersey. GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

Nice work, DBA. You've brought up a lot of good points.

One thing I disagree with is that it's our 3-point shooting that's dragging down our offensive efficiency. Our 37.3% 3-pt shooting is better than our #8 offense in 2012 (37.1%), our #7 offense in 2009 (34.9%), and is virtually the same as our #6 offense in 2011 (37.4%). Moreover, we've been shooting an excellent 39.4% from three-land in conference play, but in conference play our offensive efficiency rank in Pomeroy dropped from #3 in late December to #11 now.

Put another way, if we took last year's 38.5% from three and applied it to our current 22 three-point attempts per game, we'd have made 0.25 additional threes per game, which comes to 0.75 points per game more, or .011 more points per possession. That's a raw number and I don't know what Pomeroy would adjust it to, but at best I'd guess it would put us up to maybe #8 (from #11), tied for our worst (with 2012) since we were last out of the top ten in 2008 (#14).

So if it's not three-point shooting, what is causing our modest drop in offensive efficiency? While I agree that Jayson Tatum is a great player and is playing very well the past few games, I'd argue he's the difference here. He's our highest usage player (27.7% usage rate), taking the most shots per 100 possessions on the team (22.4, two full shots more per 100 possessions than either Luke or Grayson), but he has the team's 9th best oRtg (108.7), 7th best TO% (16.0%), 7th best a/to ratio (0.75:1), and 11th best eFG% (48.7%). Although he does a lot of good things, he's just not a very efficient player on offense, and I think that's more likely the reason why we're a borderline top 10 efficient offense instead of a solid top 5 efficient offense. Whether the difference between #4 and #11 matters very much, I don't really know.

Is,the team's overall turnover percentage up enough to make a significant difference in offensive rating? My impression has been that Duke teams tend to value the ball from the start of the year, whereas other teams value possessions much more at the end of the year, especially in tournament play.

[mgtr]

He needed a break-away jersey. GoDuke!

Excellent point. Is there some reason that you don't see these?

[jv001]

Excellent point. Is there some reason that you don't see these?

I only saw them in football, but I think some of our basketball players could use them and maybe Jayson could use a football face mask to protect himself. :cool: GoDuke!

[Neals384]

Excellent analysis, DBA. Only quibble might be with "who's in the rotation." Seems to me that Bolden has clearly earned that #8 spot. I'll be quite disappointed to see Jeter or Vrank in the game ahead of him from here out. Because he has missed time due to surgery during the tough conference schedule, Jeter's numbers are not really comparable to the others.

[Newton_14]

Outstanding Phase post DBA! Thanks much for the great write up. I tried to spork you but alas the spread the love message hit me again!

I'm an eye test guy but I love our analytics folks like yourself and many others. I think the two approaches complement each other very well, and lead to great discussions.

I too believe our 3 Point% can improve quite a bit. I've said it for years, but the single most important part of basketball is shot selection. Watch any game on any night. A team taking "good shots" will beat a team taking "bad shots" just about every time. It is even more important when it comes to 3Point shot selection. Our % on the long ball has been down due to a mixture of slumps/subpar shooting by Matt especially, and Grayson to a lesser degree, and bad 3point attempts by Tatum. (Not knocking any of them, just pointing out facts). Well, Grayson has turned it up significantly since the Wake game as noted, Matt is trending up, just not as far up as Grayson, and Tatum has changed right before our eyes and has eliminated the "really bad 3point attempts", and reduced the amount of "bad 3point attempts". I love the change in Tatum and spoke on that change in the postgame thread on the ND game. Starting with that game (after a subpar performance against Wake), it was very obvious to me, that Jayson started a new role of being a complementary scorer alongside the two studs in Grayson & Luke. He is making it a point to try and help get those two guys going offensively with his passing, court vision, and also his size and intelligence. It's the "let the game come to him" concept on steroids and it's been beautiful to watch. The result is teams putting so much effort into trying to stop Luke and Grayson, that it then allows Jayson to exploit the opportunities and match ups, take advantage of the "good/great shot" opportunities, and either knocking down the good/great look from 3 or mid-range, or in some cases as with last night, forego the open jumper and instead drive and posterize the opponents center. :) I strongly believe that is how Tatum will be used the remainder of the season, and that he will shine and do great things along the way. Our 3Point% will continue to trend up toward our ceiling in that category as a end result.

I do feel our biggest weakness/issue is still the inability to protect/defend attacks at the rim. We have to improve in this category in order to hang banners of any type. There is just no way around it. 1 or more of Amile/Giles/Bolden/Chase with support from Tatum are going to have to improve at protecting the rim. I know Harry has to be frustrated that his injuries have severely impacted his ability to block and alter shots. Like Pinson driving right at him in the 2nd half last night and current Harry was helpless to do anything about it, and fully healthy Harry would have sent that shot attempt into the crowd behind the heel bench. I feel for him. I really do. His mind knows what to do, but his body is not doing what his mind is telling it to do at the moment. It's why I strongly feel he should play his Soph Season at Duke, so he can get all the way back to his full capabilities before entering the Draft. (But please don't hijack this thread with should he/should he not. I debated even mentioning it. Please don't make me regret leaving the comment in) . We have the size and the will to defend the paint and erase mistakes but so far we just cannot execute on it no matter which of the bigs are in the game including Amile.

I really like where we are at the moment. I was giddy again last night for the first time since the Mich St game. Happy Happy Happy! Played Devil WIth A Blue Dress on my phone the minute I walked into the office this morning, much to the chagrin of the two uncCheat fans that were brave enough to come in. The other guys had the sniffles or something and had to work from home. :)

Lots of tough games left, but I feel good about where we are and feel we are very much trending up.

My take. Im out.

Newtdawg 14

Go Duke! GTHC GTH 9F All Day Every Day

[Kedsy]

Is,the team's overall turnover percentage up enough to make a significant difference in offensive rating?

Interesting question. Far as I can tell, the answer is maybe. Our TO% for the season is currently 14.4%. The past three seasons, it was 12.1% (2016); 13.9% (2015); and 12.3% (2014). So the difference between this season and last season would be about 1.5 turnovers per game, which certainly would contribute to a lower offensive efficiency. But, interestingly enough, our TO% is very close to what it was in 2015, when (a) that team seems to be Exhibit A for posters giving an example of Duke having a "true" PG; and (b) despite the TOs, the 2015 Duke team was ranked as the 3rd most efficient offense in the country by Pomeroy.

That said, it's worth pointing out that our TO% during conference play is 15.7%, significantly higher than our TO% before conference play began (13.5%), and in the same period that our TO% rose from 13.5% to 15.7%, our Pomeroy OE rank went from #3 to #11. So, maybe.

[Doria]

Thanks for the interesting write up. It gave me some food for thought. I admit I haven't thought of this in any methodical way, so bear with me, but my biggest (maybe not biggest, but on up there) concern is scoring reliably when the threes aren't falling. I know we have a lot of options, but against a strong front court, without the team shooting well from deep, I'm not sure what our options are. I mean, I know the standard options, but with our personnel, I'm just leery of that scenario. Maybe it's because I have bad memories of tourney games where we just can't buy a bucket, despite being a great shooting team.

Many other things we are not where we want to be I can see that we'll probably keep improving. But I just feel that this one area is something that we can only improve upon so much. Now, will this end up really costing us? Who knows? It's just something I'm aware of when we play say, FSU.

Anyway, don't want to make a mountain of a molehill, but that's what comes to mind.

Oh, and I somehow missed that Bolden had swelling in his knees? Do you (or dies anyone else) have more details on that. It's the first I'd heard of that,

Anyhow, thanks again for taking the time and effort to write an interesting take on where we are right now.

[gam7]

Thanks for the interesting write up. It gave me some food for thought. I admit I haven't thought of this in any methodical way, so bear with me, but my biggest (maybe not biggest, but on up there) concern is scoring reliably when the threes aren't falling. I know we have a lot of options, but against a strong front court, without the team shooting well from deep, I'm not sure what our options are. I mean, I know the standard options, but with our personnel, I'm just leery of that scenario. Maybe it's because I have bad memories of tourney games where we just can't buy a bucket, despite being a great shooting team.

Many other things we are not where we want to be I can see that we'll probably keep improving. But I just feel that this one area is something that we can only improve upon so much. Now, will this end up really costing us? Who knows? It's just something I'm aware of when we play say, FSU.

Anyway, don't want to make a mountain of a molehill, but that's what comes to mind.

Oh, and I somehow missed that Bolden had swelling in his knees? Do you (or dies anyone else) have more details on that. It's the first I'd heard of that,

Anyhow, thanks again for taking the time and effort to write an interesting take on where we are right now.

Huh? Link?

[Doria]

A trio of big men appear on the bubble of cracking the rotation, including Marques Bolden, Chase Jeter, and the surprising Antonio Vrankovic. Bolden, after suffering knee swelling at the end of the exhibition period, has yet to consistently play for Duke.

This is relatively old, but I'd never heard anything beyond "leg injury," perhaps because I'm getting my Duke news from so far away. I was just interested to hear more info on that issue. No idea if it's still affecting him or what the cause would have been (I used to have that problem with after martial arts training, but I was about two decades older than these guys, so everything has more wear and tear.)

[arnie]

This is relatively old, but I'd never heard anything beyond "leg injury," perhaps because I'm getting my Duke news from so far away. I was just interested to hear more info on that issue. No idea if it's still affecting him or what the cause would have been (I used to have that problem with after martial arts training, but I was about two decades older than these guys, so everything has more wear and tear.)

Doria, I live within 30 minutes and read as many local articles and posts about Duke bball as I can. I've yet to see any further explanation/description of Bolden's injury other than "lower leg injury". Very curious that not even local reporters can pierce the veil, but maybe Bolden's camp requests silence.

[rtnorthrup]

Wonderful opening post in this thread. I always love reading these.

Truth be told, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the new analytics of basketball. I was watching the UNC game and a few plays stood out to me. On one, I think it was Grayson's fifth foul (but it could have been another play around that time), the Duke defender is basically shoulder-to-shoulder with the driving UNC player. Matt Jones is in a clear position to step over and either give help or draw a charge, but instead, he continues his close out to a shooter at the three point line. Welcome to 2017. I know in my head that this is undoubtedly the right play and defenders are now taught not to give help off of three point shooters. But I'm also old enough to raise an eyebrow at least a .mm or two.

We now have a clear Big3 on offense, and boy is it a good trio. All three can shoot threes, have good medium range games, and can get to the rim. Interestingly, Frank Jackson's 9 first half points against UNC were huge. He and Matt can score, and more importantly, Jackson looks much more comfortable with Allen and Kennard initiating the offense.

I would like to see us get a little more balanced from inside scoring. I know Jefferson isn't 100%, but early season he was clearly a 10ppg player. With our perimeter game, Jefferson should see some real opportunities in the post. That said, he is SOOOO good for us. He just knows how to play. His positional sense is too good, even playing a little gimpy.

The rotation is interesting. I'm not sure if the staff is protecting Giles physically, or if he just isn't ready to get more minutes. I actually could see either him and/or Bolden get more minutes based on matchups, especially if there is foul trouble on Jefferson. The scary thing to think about is that there is still room for growth. Clemson and UVa are going to be very fun games to see how we adjust to very physically aggressive defenses

I know it falls outside of this Phase, but boy, how good is the ACC tourney going to be this year?

[Saratoga2]

To me, the most positive about Duke's play during the last phase has been the general improvement of so many of the team's players, and their willingness to work closely together.

1. Leading the pack is Grayson who may have been recovering from injury and also the insults of so many. He looks like he has returned to form which makes us so much harder to defend.

2. Jayson Tatum has appeared to make a great leap forward. He has always had the talent, but now is playing a team first game and picking his spots to score. His rebounding has improved as has his defense.

3. Frank is a terrific athlete and now more than before is becoming fully integrated into the team. He has upped his scoring and is another player the opponents have to defend closely.

4. Matt's defense has been stellar of late except when nursing a sore knee. Getting him back to full health gives us a premiere defender

5. Just having Amile back in the rotation is a big plus but I believe he is likely to ramp u his offense in the final games of the season. He started well before being injured and is likely to return to form.

6. Harry Giles has also shown signs of adaptation to the college game and more and more, he can become another weapon inside and give us rebounding and shot blocks going forward.

I didn't mention Luke since he has been playing at a very high level from the beginning. Perhaps his defense has improved during the last phase. He is just a great player and addition to the team.

With so many players showing improvement and with additional room for their growth, we should Do very well going into the tournament. The schedule looks hard for us moving forward and we could see some losses along the way, but not to lament. This team has a great upside potential and no one is that strong this year.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Doria, I live within 30 minutes and read as many local articles and posts about Duke bball as I can. I've yet to see any further explanation/description of Bolden's injury other than "lower leg injury". Very curious that not even local reporters can pierce the veil, but maybe Bolden's camp requests silence.

I did a quick search but couldn't find too much on it. From memory, which I know is a faulty source, I recall Coach K or someone mentioning that Bolden woke up one morning and his knee had swollen. There wasn't one incident or specific injury detected. He just had a gimpy knee after practice that caused him to miss the early part of the season. The "lower leg injury" is what I was referencing in the original post. Sorry for the confusion!

[Doria]

I did a quick search but couldn't find too much on it. From memory, which I know is a faulty source, I recall Coach K or someone mentioning that Bolden woke up one morning and his knee had swollen. There wasn't one incident or specific injury detected. He just had a gimpy knee after practice that caused him to miss the early part of the season. The "lower leg injury" is what I was referencing in the original post. Sorry for the confusion!

No worries! Thanks for the clarification!

[superdave]

We finished this phase 4-3, with a nice road win at Charlottesville and a nice win at home vs FSU. But this team left a few things on the table. They could have pulled out wins vs Syracuse and Unc on the road but closed the games out very poorly. Bad decisions, bad shot selection, a couple of poorly timed defensive lapses and mist FTs.

Amile seems to be close to full speed, maybe at 90%? Grayson is more like 75%. He just isnt explosive. Here's hoping he can get closer in the next week.

One of the bigger issues the team has is the offense has little continuity. Luke has been very consistent all season, but no one else has. They revert to one on one when the defense tightens. Not sure there's a way to fix that right now, but these guys just need to leave it all out on the floor every game. That is the one thing they can control at this point.

[DukieInBrasil]

To me, the most positive about Duke's play during the last phase has been the general improvement of so many of the team's players, and their willingness to work closely together.

1. Leading the pack is Grayson who may have been recovering from injury and also the insults of so many. He looks like he has returned to form which makes us so much harder to defend.

2. Jayson Tatum has appeared to make a great leap forward. He has always had the talent, but now is playing a team first game and picking his spots to score. His rebounding has improved as has his defense.

3. Frank is a terrific athlete and now more than before is becoming fully integrated into the team. He has upped his scoring and is another player the opponents have to defend closely.

4. Matt's defense has been stellar of late except when nursing a sore knee. Getting him back to full health gives us a premiere defender

5. Just having Amile back in the rotation is a big plus but I believe he is likely to ramp u his offense in the final games of the season. He started well before being injured and is likely to return to form.

6. Harry Giles has also shown signs of adaptation to the college game and more and more, he can become another weapon inside and give us rebounding and shot blocks going forward.

I didn't mention Luke since he has been playing at a very high level from the beginning. Perhaps his defense has improved during the last phase. He is just a great player and addition to the team.

With so many players showing improvement and with additional room for their growth, we should Do very well going into the tournament. The schedule looks hard for us moving forward and we could see some losses along the way, but not to lament. This team has a great upside potential and no one is that strong this year.

I agree with pretty much everything you've said, except for the part about Giles. I just don't see that he has improved all that much. He fouls too much and has retrogressed in a serious fashion on offense lately, after a stretch of efficient, if midling, offensive games. His rebounding is pretty decent, but he is not a good shot-blocker particularly for someone who is as tall, springy and exclusively a post player. He averages 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes, and he's not playing anywhere close to 36 mpg. He is an enormous liability on defense right now, and an intelligent team will just pull their big away from the basket, screen Giles off onto a guard and then have the guard just blow right past him.
Other than being a warm body to occupy the space that Amile would normally occupy while Amile rests, he's not bringing very much to the team right now. He certainly has not shown linear or even roundabout growth as a player. Still very inconsistent, with a max output of about 8pts and 7 rebs in a game (NCSU and that wasn't even during this Phase), with a floor of 0pt and 1 reb (FSU).
His output of 1pt and 3rebs vs UNC is actually on the low end of the spectrum for his production during these last 2 Phases. I don't see that he has made any progress lately, and is essentially no different than what Duke was getting from Chase Jeter as a Fr. He's scored 15 pts and 24 rebs in 7 games since the the 1st UNC game, so, marginally better than Chase's averages last year.
He could still improve his game this year and show us a touch of the talent that made everyone salivate over him as a HS player, and if he does that Duke will become a better team.

[Kedsy]

He fouls too much and has retrogressed in a serious fashion on offense lately, after a stretch of efficient, if midling, offensive games.

I disagree that Harry hasn't improved in these areas. He perhaps got a bit too excited during a 30 second span last night, but in the 8 games before UNC II, his foul rate was just 4.7 per 40, which is not great but not terrible for a big man, and is waaaaaay better than his 8.1 fouls per 40 in the 8-game period immediately prior. So he's been controlling his fouls of late, last night notwithstanding.

As for his offense, he's been taking fewer shots recently, but his efficiency in the eight games before last night has been better -- he shot 75% in those eight games, and shot 57% in the eight games before that.

You know, baby steps and all that.

[Troublemaker]

I will remember this Phase mostly for Grayson's rolled ankle in the first game of the Phase. Hopefully his performance in UNC II means he's gotten over the hump with that injury.

BTW, this is so belated, but nice Phase post, DavidBenAkiva. Pretty good for a newbie.

[DukieInBrasil]

I disagree that Harry hasn't improved in these areas. He perhaps got a bit too excited during a 30 second span last night, but in the 8 games before UNC II, his foul rate was just 4.7 per 40, which is not great but not terrible for a big man, and is waaaaaay better than his 8.1 fouls per 40 in the 8-game period immediately prior. So he's been controlling his fouls of late, last night notwithstanding.

As for his offense, he's been taking fewer shots recently, but his efficiency in the eight games before last night has been better -- he shot 75% in those eight games, and shot 57% in the eight games before that.

You know, baby steps and all that.

i don't know how averaging 0.5ppg and 2rpg for the last 2 games can be considered improving compared to the 15 pts and 15 rebs during the previous 4 games.
If the consideration was seeing improvement during this Phase, i would argue that we didn't see it from Harry in any area, other than, as you point out, fouls per 40. Improvement would indicate that he played better at the end than at the beginning. That didn't happen.

[Kedsy]

Improvement would indicate that he played better at the end than at the beginning. That didn't happen.

Improvement doesn't mean every game is better than the last. To me, it seems shortsighted to focus on the last two games versus an overall trend.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I will remember this Phase mostly for Grayson's rolled ankle in the first game of the Phase. Hopefully his performance in UNC II means he's gotten over the hump with that injury.

BTW, this is so belated, but nice Phase post, DavidBenAkiva. Pretty good for a newbie.

Thanks, Troublemaker!

But really, injuries are just the worst.