MBB: Duke vs. the Cheatin Cretins (Thu, 8 pm, ESPN/ACCN) Pre-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

It's time for our annual visit from our neighbors down the road. The game will be this Thursday evening at 8 pm ET.

Here's the list of local ACC Network affiliates that will be broadcasting the game: http://theacc.co/mbb17accn0209

If you're not in an area serviced by one of those affiliates, you SHOULD be able to watch on ESPN. I haven't seen a coverage map for the game yet, though.

And you should have the ability to stream the game here: http://theacc.co/mbb17live0209

[Bob Green]

1. Control pace - we do not want to get into a track meet with Carolina
2. Get back on defense
3. Box out to limit Carolina's offensive rebounds
4. Make shots

[Devilwin]

1. Control pace - we do not want to get into a track meet with Carolina
2. Get back on defense
3. Box out to limit Carolina's offensive rebounds
4. Make shots

Nice take. I especially agree on the rebounding. Jackson scares me more than anyone else, he needs to be watched very closely. He always hovers around the paint looking for garbage, and can get hot from three. Lock him down, we will win..

[dukelifer]

1. Control pace - we do not want to get into a track meet with Carolina
2. Get back on defense
3. Box out to limit Carolina's offensive rebounds
4. Make shots

This will be about making shots and not letting UNC control the glass. UNC has not played great on the road and can get rattled. Duke can't let them get comfortable.

[weezie]

Help Jayson stay out of the deep corner on offense unless he's planning on quick driving. Refs don't seem to watch opposing team duo blocks against him and he gets whistled.

And, no reach ins!

[davekay1971]

Should be a fun exhibition game.

But I'll be excited when we resume play against actual universities.

[Troublemaker]

UNC will get after us with their defense, pressuring the ball far from the basket, and playing the passing lanes on the wings.

So, the first thing we need to do in this game to have any chance to win is take care of the basketball and make good passes and decisions.

Duke should be able to accomplish this given our perimeter talent, and yet Duke also should rank higher than 11th in the conference in turnover rate using conference games only. And yet 11th is where we currently rank.

That said, one of the goals I wrote in the Pitt pregame thread was for Duke to have fewer than 10 turnovers. Mission accomplished. Maybe we're starting to get better with ball-handling, passing, and decision-making. Jayson Tatum's improvement is, of course, going to go a long way towards improving Duke's turnover rate, as he's been a major culprit.

If we're not turning the ball over all over the place and starting their break for them, Duke should be able to drive for layups, drive for fouls, and drive for kicks to open shooters. That's what we do to UNC. That's how 11 out of 15 happens.

Watch out for Frank Jackson in this game. UNC's pressure-the-ball, deny-the-wings defense is conducive to a really quick guard like Frank breaking them down off the dribble for layups and kickouts. I feel like Frank's become a better passer recently, a better decision-maker, so here's hoping he torches the Heels.

[Reilly]

Should be a fun exhibition game.

But I'll be excited when we resume play against actual universities.

The ACC has deemed that this game count in the standings. And to be fair, Glenwood Elementary *is* recognized as an education institution by the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools system.

[Ballboy1998]

Agree with everything said above. If Duke can make this a game of half court, first chance offense, it should be a Duke W. Duke cannot let unc get too many transition or second chance buckets.

Amile's defense is going to be huge, and we are likely going to need some quality minutes from one of the freshmen bigs (likely Giles). If K could, he would probably play Amile all 40 minutes, but I think some temporary foul trouble is inevitable, so we will need 5-10 minutes of quality play from Giles.

[UrinalCake]

The matchups feel very similar to last year. If we can limit turnovers, prevent the transition runouts, not get demolished on the boards, and hit our shots then we'll be in good shape. But easier said than done. If we're playing our small lineup then Tatum will be guarded by Hicks and he should be able to drive on him. I wonder if we'll use some different gimmicky defenses on Berry like we did on Kendall Marshall; making him have to work harder will cut off the rest of the team as they don't have any other guys who can really create.

[uh_no]

Should be a fun exhibition game.

But I'll be excited when we resume play against actual universities.

yeah. shame this W won't factor into our KP ratings :)

[BandAlum83]

I hate to admit, but this game is Huuuuge and more important for us than it is for them. It's a great opportunity for us to make a statement to the rest of the ACC and national sports media.

I know K will have our guys ready and will have the right game plan. Execute, and of course, we will win.

Let's fire on all cylinders!

I really hate these guys, GTHC!

Go Duke!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I talked about the offense upthread. On defense, we're going to front the post, and we're going to try very hard to deny Berry and Jackson looks at open 3s. Matt (if he's healthy) on Jackson. Grayson on Berry.

As others have mentioned, if we can do a good job on the defensive boards (in addition to taking care of the ball on offense, as mentioned previously), Duke will win. I have a feeling Harry Giles and his monstrous rebounding rates will play a role.

With Jayson, I'm a bit worried but I hope he proves me wrong. This feels like a game where he's going to be overanxious. Whether that means fouling too much (not maintaining verticality on his challenges) on defense or going 1-on-1 against Hicks and missing open shooters when UNC collapses, I'm worried. Whether Duke plays mostly big or mostly small will depend on which one of Jayson and Harry is playing better. There's definitely a chance Duke rolls with the Amile / Harry tandem in the post if Jayson isn't ready for a big-time game.

And as mentioned above, we'll need a big game from Frank in conditions that will suit his game. So many ways to slice a game. The freshmen slice is this: if Frank and 1 of Harry/Marques play well, Duke wins.

[rsvman]

I hope the newbies understand that they can't admire their made shots. UNC will be scoring a layup on the other end while you stand there congratulating yourself.
I'm sure the coaches will explain this, but it seems like until you experience it for yourself, you don't really understand the reality of it. I don't want to give up too many layups in the first three minutes of the game.

[BandAlum83]

I hope the newbies understand that they can't admire their made shots. UNC will be scoring a layup on the other end while you stand there congratulating yourself.
I'm sure the coaches will explain this, but it seems like until you experience it for yourself, you don't really understand the reality of it. I don't want to give up too many layups in the first three minutes of the game.

The time to admire is when the clock reads 0:00 for the last time.

[Troublemaker]

Grayson on Berry.

These two juniors are both Florida kids that have experience playing both against and with each other even before participating in the Duke / UNC rivalry. (With each other on AAU (http://www.d1circuit.com/roster/show/791819?subseason=107479)). With Grayson's move to PG, they're going to see each other a lot in this game.

(Grayson needs to do a much better job guarding him than what is seen in this high school mixtape.)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tMurc4QbeU

[dukebluesincebirth]

My keys:
-I think they'll try to go down low to Meeks/Hicks/Bradley early to attempt to draw fouls on our bigs... low post defense without fouling will be very important
-limit timely shooting from Berry... he's their safety net when things go south. anticipate it and deny him the ball
-defensive rebounding. Hicks, Meeks, Pinson, Jackson will all be crashing the glass on every shot, so you've got to box out!
-MAKE SHOTS. It sounds silly, but we've got to have the ball go through the basket from 3... let it rain!

I wonder if:
-We'll use any full court pressure on defense, forcing someone besides Berry to handle the ball, maybe creating some turnovers?
- We'll use our bigs to double team Meeks or Hicks in the post?
- Bolden/Giles will play significant minutes?
-Jeter will play?
-We'll play any zone?

[Ballboy1998]

One thing I didn't mention in my prior post is that I think Duke needs to be choosey but opportunistic about pushing transition offense off of defensive rebounds. While the last thing Duke wants is a track meet, when you get a clean defensive rebound it is important to punish unc for committing so many bodies to the offensive glass. In addition, the guys we will be playing at the 4 and 5 (likely a rotation of Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles), should be able to get up the floor faster than a couple of unc's main bigs.

On the other side of the coin, I will be interested to see how Duke approaches rebounding on the offensive end. At times in recent years against unc we have pretty much conceded second chance opportunities to make sure we get back on defense. By and large, I agree with the conservative approach of having the focus be on limiting transition instead of hitting the offensive glass aggressively, but will be looking to see how the team approaches it this time around.

[PackMan97]

It's a shame you guys will drag your good name through the mud to play with these dirty rotten cheaters.

[UrinalCake]

Any word on whether Pinson plays in this game? He would play a big role in defending either Luke or Grayson. Without him, we can definitely attack whichever 2 guard they put out there. Would be a great game for Luke to score 30 in a half again 8-)

[SkyBrickey]

Tatum vs Hicks. Which team can best exploit the mismatch?

Can we keep them off the offensive glass?

I expect Frank to play a lot of minutes guarding Berry. Can he contain him?

[Troublemaker]

I wonder if:

My thoughts follow:



-We'll use any full court pressure on defense, forcing someone besides Berry to handle the ball, maybe creating some turnovers?

Yes, good point by you and others. We'll probably use that soft zone press to slow UNC's advance of the ball and perhaps play keep-away from Berry on some possession. Duke will have to make shots to use it, though. We don't use it after misses.



- We'll use our bigs to double team Meeks or Hicks in the post?

Sparingly, I'd hope. UNC's bigs are capable of making that big to big pass for an easy assist.



- Bolden/Giles will play significant minutes?

Seems pretty likely.



-Jeter will play?

If he's recovered enough from back surgery, maybe. But I doubt we get any updates on his status. Coach K sometimes holds a pre-UNC presser, so maybe a journalist can force an update out of him.



-We'll play any zone?

Only if there's massive foul trouble. UNC's a good zone team. They've killed Syracuse the past couple of seasons.

The Heels (and other ACC teams besides Duke) did have trouble against GaTech's zone, but that's a complicated, multiple-looks, shifting zone that is ranked #10 in the country and can't be duplicated by Duke.

[uh_no]

If he's recovered enough from back surgery, maybe. But I doubt we get any updates on his status. Coach K sometimes holds a pre-UNC presser, so maybe a journalist can force an update out of him.



He warmed up with the team the other day....which is an indication that he's closer than further to being back. Now, whether Vrank or Chase is that bonus guy, i think, depends on how they've been practicing, and what the situation calls for.

[FadedTackyShirt]

I expect Frank to play a lot of minutes guarding Berry. Can he contain him?

Was talking to some Hole season ticket holders recently and they were even more surprised than I was that Berry had been Mr Basketball in Florida for three years. Way to coach 'em up, Huck!

[FerryFor50]

This is going to be interesting.

UNC has had a great season, but they've been streaky and involved in some really close wins against teams they should have blown out (Clemson and Pitt come to mind). The ball bounces differently in a few of those games and we are talking about "what happened to UNC this season" in addition to Duke.

That said, the Cheats are a deep, experienced team. Lots of quality bigs. Tons of rebounding. And they get to the line a lot.

Defensively, they're hit or miss, but they will be very ready to play in the rivalry game, so I expect them to be focused on D.

To me, the keys are:

- Get Hicks and Berry in foul trouble, if possible. Hicks has been foul prone, this season, but has gotten better about it. Berry, to me, is the key to the UNC offense and defense. They lose him, they will struggle.
- Hit your open looks, but don't settle just for 3s. Can't get them in foul trouble if you're just jacking up shots outside.

It's a winnable game, but I have my reservations given how the two teams have played this year. UNC has been a bit more resilient in close games, and that's likely due to the experience factor.

Hopefully, Duke can pull it out.

[dahntaysdawg]

I have a bad feeling that Teddy Valentine is going to be listed as an official for this game.

[TKG]

We need/have to play a full 40. Anything less and we lose. The entire team has show up for the full 40.

[Rich]

We need to weather the storm of our own over-anxiety. We always seem to come out playing too emotional at home against Carolina. How fast we can get into our rhythm and shake off the anxiety will play a big role, especially if our frosh are playing.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I enjoy pouring through the stats, and the thing that really sticks out for UNC is their offensive rebounding (duh). They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, pulling in 41.8% of available boards on the offensive end. While they are a mediocre shooting team, they overwhelm their opponents with additional opportunities. That excellence on the offensive boards does not translate quite as much to the defensive boards, however. They rank a good-but-not-great 34th in defensive rebounding rate at 76.5%. And they don't block a lot of shots, either, which is weird for a team that boasts the kind of height that the Tar Heels employ. In fact, they are more likely to get blocked than they are to swat a shot. So UNC scores a ton of points and they get a lot of second chances. The two go hand in hand. If Duke is able to control the defensive rebounds, they will have a good shot in this game.

How does Duke do excel? Well, they are pretty good at limiting the 3 point shot, holding teams to 30.1% and among the fewest attempts, too, at just 17.6 a game. UNC gives up a lot of 3's and teams shoot well from downtown against them, too. The Tar Heels's opponents are averaging 24 attempts per game (bottom 50 in the nation on that category) and making a decent 34.3%. Good thing Duke has a couple of shooters on the perimeter in a suddenly hot Grayson Allen, making more than 44% of his attempts in the past 3 games. Luke Kennard has been nailing 51.1% of his 3 point attempts in conference play to date, by the way. Frank Jackson (36.3%) and Matt Jones (34.0%) have also been pretty decent behind the line this year.

To mitigate UNC's edge on the boards, I wouldn't be surprised to see Duke employ a big lineup featuring Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles along the front line. All three are very good on the defensive glass, boasting defensive rebounding rates of Jefferson at 24.6%, Giles at 23.4%, and Tatum at 19.7%. Kennedy Meeks and Tony Bradley are particularly adept on the offensive glass, so keeping the ball out of their hands will be key. When Duke is on offense, the guards will have a serious size advantage and should be able to keep plays alive off of missed long-range shots. The key is to limit the number of second chance points that UNC has. The Tar Heels were really bad at shooting the basketball from deep in recent seasons, but Joel Berry and Justin Jackson have been quite accurate from 3 this season. Running them off the 3 point line will help Duke keep it close.

[Spanarkel]

UNC will get after us with their defense, pressuring the ball far from the basket, and playing the passing lanes on the wings.

So, the first thing we need to do in this game to have any chance to win is take care of the basketball and make good passes and decisions.

Duke should be able to accomplish this given our perimeter talent, and yet Duke also should rank higher than 11th in the conference in turnover rate using conference games only. And yet 11th is where we currently rank.

That said, one of the goals I wrote in the Pitt pregame thread was for Duke to have fewer than 10 turnovers. Mission accomplished. Maybe we're starting to get better with ball-handling, passing, and decision-making. Jayson Tatum's improvement is, of course, going to go a long way towards improving Duke's turnover rate, as he's been a major culprit.

If we're not turning the ball over all over the place and starting their break for them, Duke should be able to drive for layups, drive for fouls, and drive for kicks to open shooters. That's what we do to UNC. That's how 11 out of 15 happens.

Watch out for Frank Jackson in this game. UNC's pressure-the-ball, deny-the-wings defense is conducive to a really quick guard like Frank breaking them down off the dribble for layups and kickouts. I feel like Frank's become a better passer recently, a better decision-maker, so here's hoping he torches the Heels.

Jayson's current turnover percentage is 16.2%(, versus Joel Berry II's 15.8%, with Berry II having been named to the midseason Wooden Award Watch List, along with Duke's LK). What would you like Jayson's turnover percentage to be? Not trying to be snarky here, just stating the facts. I enjoy your thoughtful posts and GIFs! Let's go, Duke!

[COYS]

Jayson's current turnover percentage is 16.2%(, versus Joel Berry II's 15.8%, with Berry II having been named to the midseason Wooden Award Watch List, along with Duke's LK). What would you like Jayson's turnover percentage to be? Not trying to be snarky here, just stating the facts. I enjoy your thoughtful posts and GIFs! Let's go, Duke!

Jayson's conference-only turnover percentage is 21.5%, which, combined with his less than stellar (so far) three point shooting has not made him a particularly efficient player in conference play. Similarly, Grayson's conference only turnover percentage is also 21.5% (up from 13% last season). I actually think that the increase in turnover percentage for Duke as a team is the primary reason for our good but not elite offensive numbers, particularly in conference play. I'm hoping that the lack of continuity in the team has been the biggest driving force behind this issue (Duke started off the year almost never turning the ball over, although Grayson has been a bit more turnover prone all season). If Jayson and Grayson can cut their turnovers down a bit and if Jayson can hit a few more threes (he doesn't even need to be elite, just a bit more respectable) Duke's offense will go back to being among the best in a hurry. We know Grayson can be better because we saw it over the course of an entire season last year. And I have to think that Jayson will get more comfortable as he adjusts to college ball in what has been a season full of disruptions. If we toss out the outlier 2007 season, this season is tied with 2008 as the worst offensive season since 2002. I think there is lots of room for optimism that we are capable of being better than we have been.

It's also worth mentioning again how much of a ridiculous force Luke is. He shoots 2 pointers like a forward who mostly takes layups and dunks. He's hitting over 50% of his threes in conference play. He hits his free throws. He never turns the ball over. He's leading the conference in offensive efficiency. And he's actually been BETTER against KenPom's "Tier A" teams than he has against weaker competition. It's really insane.

Edit: Jayson also had his most efficient game of the season against Pitt. He only scored 12 points, but he didn't force things and only had 1 turnover. That combined with his workman-like double double against Notre Dame could be an indication that he's doing a better job taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing things. Honestly, I think he's got a few break-out games ahead of him. He has so much talent.

[rsvman]

How does Duke do excel? .....

I'm actually more curious about how Duke does Word and PowerPoint. :p;)

[Atldukie79]

I love Giles potential, and I do think his height will be important to us against UNCheat.

But what most stands out to me is how often he gets isolated on an opponent's wing player on the perimeter or near the elbow, and they blow by him. I believe his lateral quickness and/or reaction time is very low. This happened after a few minutes in the Pitt game and he was on the bench.

While he is an elite run and jump athlete with great coordination and touch, he is a liability on the defensive end. Perhaps he will not need the quickness as much this week depending on his defensive assignment.

[Furniture]

Unfortunately I will miss this one. I am in Sweden and it will be a 2.00am game start!!

[Tom B.]

I don't have anything substantive to add. Just wanted to share this happy memory from last year's first Duke-Carolina game:


7144

[Troublemaker]

Jayson's conference-only turnover percentage is 21.5%, which, combined with his less than stellar (so far) three point shooting has not made him a particularly efficient player in conference play. Similarly, Grayson's conference only turnover percentage is also 21.5% (up from 13% last season). I actually think that the increase in turnover percentage for Duke as a team is the primary reason for our good but not elite offensive numbers, particularly in conference play. I'm hoping that the lack of continuity in the team has been the biggest driving force behind this issue (Duke started off the year almost never turning the ball over, although Grayson has been a bit more turnover prone all season). If Jayson and Grayson can cut their turnovers down a bit and if Jayson can hit a few more threes (he doesn't even need to be elite, just a bit more respectable) Duke's offense will go back to being among the best in a hurry. We know Grayson can be better because we saw it over the course of an entire season last year. And I have to think that Jayson will get more comfortable as he adjusts to college ball in what has been a season full of disruptions. If we toss out the outlier 2007 season, this season is tied with 2008 as the worst offensive season since 2002. I think there is lots of room for optimism that we are capable of being better than we have been.

It's also worth mentioning again how much of a ridiculous force Luke is. He shoots 2 pointers like a forward who mostly takes layups and dunks. He's hitting over 50% of his threes in conference play. He hits his free throws. He never turns the ball over. He's leading the conference in offensive efficiency. And he's actually been BETTER against KenPom's "Tier A" teams than he has against weaker competition. It's really insane.

Edit: Jayson also had his most efficient game of the season against Pitt. He only scored 12 points, but he didn't force things and only had 1 turnover. That combined with his workman-like double double against Notre Dame could be an indication that he's doing a better job taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing things. Honestly, I think he's got a few break-out games ahead of him. He has so much talent.

Thanks for responding, COYS.

Also, for many readers, I suspect turnover rate is sort of a nebulous stat. For those peeps, just look at Jayson's game logs (https://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=2774&season=2016-17) and see his game to game turnover count, and you can see that turnovers have been a problem for him.

[FerryFor50]

Unfortunately I will miss this one. I am in Sweden and it will be a 2.00am game start!!

Some fan you are! :cool:

[Hingeknocker]

Thanks for responding, COYS.

Also, for many readers, I suspect turnover rate is sort of a nebulous stat. For those peeps, just look at Jayson's game logs (https://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=2774&season=2016-17) and see his game to game turnover count, and you can see that turnovers have been a problem for him.

Are offensive fouls included in turnover count? I believe they are, and I wonder how much that is impacting Tatum's numbers. He's had a hard time adjusting to referees being pretty quick to charge him with an offensive foul when he's bullying his way to the basket against, usually, much smaller defenders. I think this is egregiously unfair to players like Tatum - what's he supposed to do? not be bigger and stronger than his defender? - as the type of contact they'll allow for smaller players isn't materially different than what Tatum likes to do. He won't get called for that kind of thing in the NBA. But, hopefully he's able to make an adjustment in his game if that's how the college refs are going to call it. His one turnover game against Pittsburgh is encouraging, at least.

[BandAlum83]

Unfortunately I will miss this one. I am in Sweden and it will be a 2.00am game start!!

Your point? The Internet is open 24/7 even in Sweden!

[Kedsy]

Unfortunately I will miss this one. I am in Sweden and it will be a 2.00am game start!!

They don't have DVRs in Sweden?

[kAzE]

They don't have DVRs in Sweden?

You don't even need that . . . replays of games on ESPN or ACC Network are always posted on ESPN3.com, and if you don't have that, many of our full games are posted on YouTube as well:

https://youtu.be/WDSmv4hsBAo (I hope the ACC doesn't take this one down, the 2nd half is a joy to watch)

https://youtu.be/ptLqXugt8JQ

[dukebluesincebirth]

I have a bad feeling that Teddy Valentine is going to be listed as an official for this game.

Please God no. Don't do that to me. He is absolutely terrible, and loves to be on TV.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I noticed last game that our rotation in the lane was very bad at points. Will get killed down low with Meeks and Jackson if we continue to forget to help the primary and secondary defenders. Especially with Jackson's ability to be a stretch 4.

[Spanarkel]

Thanks for responding, COYS.

Also, for many readers, I suspect turnover rate is sort of a nebulous stat. For those peeps, just look at Jayson's game logs (https://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=2774&season=2016-17) and see his game to game turnover count, and you can see that turnovers have been a problem for him.

How about using the estimate I'll call "Turnover Balance"* to assess how different players "value" the basketball?


*Turnover Balance=(Turnovers Committed)-(Turnovers Created), wherein Turnovers Created=(Steals per game) + 0.33(blocked shots per game).

Blocked shots don't officially result in a turnover, but roughly 1/3 of the time lead to a sudden change in possesion(similar to a live ball turnover), and an immeasurable but definite surge in momentum.

For Jayson so far, his Turnover Balance= 2.7 turnovers/game - (1.5 steals/game + .33(1.4 blocks/game))=0.74

Using this Turnover Balance estimation, Jayson's "ball valuing" ability looks better than all but several Duke players. I know Jayson's turnovers have been problematic(but are hopefully on the decrease), but he is doing a LOT of different things to help us win.

[COYS]

How about using the estimate I'll call "Turnover Balance"* to assess how different players "value" the basketball?


*Turnover Balance=(Turnovers Committed)-(Turnovers Created), wherein Turnovers Created=(Steals per game) + 0.33(blocked shots per game).

Blocked shots don't officially result in a turnover, but roughly 1/3 of the time lead to a sudden change in possesion(similar to a live ball turnover), and an immeasurable but definite surge in momentum.

For Jayson so far, his Turnover Balance= 2.7 turnovers/game - (1.5 steals/game + .33(1.4 blocks/game))=0.74

Using this Turnover Balance estimation, Jayson's "ball valuing" ability looks better than all but several Duke players. I know Jayson's turnovers have been problematic(but are hopefully on the decrease), but he is doing a LOT of different things to help us win.

I agree with you on this. Jayson has been a solid defender, though he is good for a bad rotation or two per game and is sometimes caught flat-footed on switches on the perimeter (which is fixable because other times he's actually pretty good with staying in front of quick guards). Otherwise, he gets steals at a good rate, blocks shots, and grabs defensive boards. There's a reason he's getting as many minutes as he can handle.

However, I was specifically referring to our team's offensive efficiency. If Jayson is able to continue to improve on his already solid defense AND reduce his turnovers on offense, it will go a long way toward helping this team realize its potential.

[Spanarkel]

I agree with you on this. Jayson has been a solid defender, though he is good for a bad rotation or two per game and is sometimes caught flat-footed on switches on the perimeter (which is fixable because other times he's actually pretty good with staying in front of quick guards). Otherwise, he gets steals at a good rate, blocks shots, and grabs defensive boards. There's a reason he's getting as many minutes as he can handle.

However, I was specifically referring to our team's offensive efficiency. If Jayson is able to continue to improve on his already solid defense AND reduce his turnovers on offense, it will go a long way toward helping this team realize its potential.

Yes, I agree with your assessments on Duke's offensive efficiency. Thanks for your informative and reasoned posts!

[Kedsy]

I agree with you on this. Jayson has been a solid defender, though he is good for a bad rotation or two per game and is sometimes caught flat-footed on switches on the perimeter

I'm not sure whether Jayson is solid on D or not. His steals and blocks (as you and Spanarkel have pointed out) are very strong. His 3.0% steals percentage leads the team and his 4.5% blocks percentage is #3 on the team but super-solid for a non-center. But we all know blocks and steals don't tell the whole story.

Jabari Parker, for example, was also solid in both (2.1 steals% and 4.0 blocks%). Jahlil Okafor, as well (1.5 steals% and 4.5 blocks%). Tyus Jones had a pretty good steals% (2.7%). None of these guys were good defenders at Duke. So I just don't know about Jayson, it's really hard for me to tell.

Also, I guess on some level causing turnovers on defense and generating them on offense sort of offset each other, but they're not really related in any meaningful way. Our team offensive efficiency will rise if one of our highest usage players takes better shots (as Jayson has the past couple games) and cuts down on his turnovers (as he did against Pitt). Our defensive efficiency will improve if our PNR defense continues to get better and our defensive rotations tighten up. As solid as Jayson is in causing opposing turnovers, as a team we don't cause enough turnovers to offset for bad positional defense.

[uh_no]

I'm not sure whether Jayson is solid on D or not. His steals and blocks (as you and Spanarkel have pointed out) are very strong. His 3.0% steals percentage leads the team and his 4.5% blocks percentage is #3 on the team but super-solid for a non-center. But we all know blocks and steals don't tell the whole story.

Jabari Parker, for example, was also solid in both (2.1 steals% and 4.0 blocks%). Jahlil Okafor, as well (1.5 steals% and 4.5 blocks%). Tyus Jones had a pretty good steals% (2.7%). None of these guys were good defenders at Duke. So I just don't know about Jayson, it's really hard for me to tell.

Also, I guess on some level causing turnovers on defense and generating them on offense sort of offset each other, but they're not really related in any meaningful way. Our team offensive efficiency will rise if one of our highest usage players takes better shots (as Jayson has the past couple games) and cuts down on his turnovers (as he did against Pitt). Our defensive efficiency will improve if our PNR defense continues to get better and our defensive rotations tighten up. As solid as Jayson is in causing opposing turnovers, as a team we don't cause enough turnovers to offset for bad positional defense.

agree 100%

I miss the <someone> who would document every defensive breakdown every game. I'm sure duke has that data with their sports-vu stuff, but it was cool to have some data to rely on rather than "eye test." That said, he seems fine enough to me. I don't see him getting lost, he's generally active and generally quick enough to stay on most people his size. I wouldn't put him as defender of the year, but he doesn't seem to be a negative to me, certainly not that I feel I wish we had someone who was a better defender.

I had the same concern about the stat....how much you value the ball depends on how often you lose the ball relative to how many times you touch it.....someone could be a masterful defender, get a ton of steals, but not get many touches, and turn many of them over. They'd show great performance in this metric. Further, it elevates steals and blocks over any other defensive skill for no real reason. It would be like evaluating a second baseman by taking hits at the plate and subtracting errors in the field...there's simply no reason to conflate the two.

That said, I'm not sure A/TO is the best stat really. It's nice since it evaluates how many points you generate for each mistake you make. There are two huge issues to this, though:
1) not every point generated is due to an assist. Sometimes you took a risk, and made the shot yourself....or it was the hockey assist that got the bucket.
2) the turnover attempts to normalize somewhat based on how risky you are. It doesn't, however, take into account how often you do anything. Without accounting for assists per touch, you lose a good amount of information.

In the end, exactly what you'd want to look at depends on what you want to optimize for. Ultimately you want someone who is not just passing the ball around for fun. So you'd want to see some sort of points generated per touch. You also want the touches that don't generate points to also not be turnovers....so either points generated per TO or TO per touch is useful as well.

Now even that can fall short if the team's offense relies on a lot of passing before moving towards the basket.

It's kind of a black hole, but doesn't change the fact that I always wish I had better statistics :)

[sagegrouse]

How about using the estimate I'll call "Turnover Balance"* to assess how different players "value" the basketball?


*Turnover Balance=(Turnovers Committed)-(Turnovers Created), wherein Turnovers Created=(Steals per game) + 0.33(blocked shots per game).

Blocked shots don't officially result in a turnover, but roughly 1/3 of the time lead to a sudden change in possesion(similar to a live ball turnover), and an immeasurable but definite surge in momentum.

For Jayson so far, his Turnover Balance= 2.7 turnovers/game - (1.5 steals/game + .33(1.4 blocks/game))=0.74

Using this Turnover Balance estimation, Jayson's "ball valuing" ability looks better than all but several Duke players. I know Jayson's turnovers have been problematic(but are hopefully on the decrease), but he is doing a LOT of different things to help us win.

A static number may not do full credit to the game of basketball. Let me speculate that many of Jayson's turnovers occur on drives to the basket, which, if successful, result in high-percentage shots or clean threes if he makes a good pass to a teammate.

[FerryFor50]

agree 100%

I miss the <someone> who would document every defensive breakdown every game. I'm sure duke has that data with their sports-vu stuff, but it was cool to have some data to rely on rather than "eye test." That said, he seems fine enough to me. I don't see him getting lost, he's generally active and generally quick enough to stay on most people his size. I wouldn't put him as defender of the year, but he doesn't seem to be a negative to me, certainly not that I feel I wish we had someone who was a better defender.

I had the same concern about the stat...how much you value the ball depends on how often you lose the ball relative to how many times you touch it....someone could be a masterful defender, get a ton of steals, but not get many touches, and turn many of them over. They'd show great performance in this metric. Further, it elevates steals and blocks over any other defensive skill for no real reason. It would be like evaluating a second baseman by taking hits at the plate and subtracting errors in the field...there's simply no reason to conflate the two.

That said, I'm not sure A/TO is the best stat really. It's nice since it evaluates how many points you generate for each mistake you make. There are two huge issues to this, though:
1) not every point generated is due to an assist. Sometimes you took a risk, and made the shot yourself...or it was the hockey assist that got the bucket.
2) the turnover attempts to normalize somewhat based on how risky you are. It doesn't, however, take into account how often you do anything. Without accounting for assists per touch, you lose a good amount of information.

In the end, exactly what you'd want to look at depends on what you want to optimize for. Ultimately you want someone who is not just passing the ball around for fun. So you'd want to see some sort of points generated per touch. You also want the touches that don't generate points to also not be turnovers...so either points generated per TO or TO per touch is useful as well.

Now even that can fall short if the team's offense relies on a lot of passing before moving towards the basket.

It's kind of a black hole, but doesn't change the fact that I always wish I had better statistics :)

For me, eye test on Tatum's defense has to do with getting back after a missed layup and falling asleep on occasion off the ball.

On ball defense is pretty solid.

[vick]

A static number may not do full credit to the game of basketball. Let me speculate that many of Jayson's turnovers occur on drives to the basket, which, if successful, result in high-percentage shots or clean threes if he makes a good pass to a teammate.

I think this is basically right. Turnover rate isn't my favorite stat since it is dramatically affected by the number of shots you take. If you just take a simpler metric, turnovers/40 minutes, Tatum is pretty high at 3.9 in ACC play. The only regular-rotation Duke players with more in ACC games since '97 are freshman Paulus, sophomore and junior Jay Williams, and Maggette. That's not great, especially for someone without major ball-handling responsibilities.

[CDu]

Others have summed things up nicely (Bob Green's four keys to the game are spot on), but I'll give a breakdown of the players and briefly the team.

Inside: UNC-CH plays predominantly a two-big lineup. The starters are Meeks (6'10", 260lb senior) and Hicks (6'9", 240lb senior). Meeks is a widebody, though less wide now than when he arrived. He's fairly slow of foot, but holds his position really well. He's a menace on the boards (9.4 rpg in 23.4 mpg) and has a nice touch around the basket. His issue is fatigue, in part due to the pace at which UNC plays. But he's a very effective player. Hicks is a high-energy, super-athletic guy who has trouble with fouls. He hasn't quite replicated Brice Johnson's numbers (especially the rebounds), but he isn't far off of Johnson as an efficient scorer around the rim. He gets about 13 ppg in just 24 mpg. The only thing holding him back is foul trouble, and he averages 3 per game. Behind those two are Bradley (6'10", 240lb frosh) and Maye (6'8", 235lb soph). Bradley is a very talented freshman. Assuming he doesn't go pro (because they almost never go pro as freshmen at UNC), he'll be a force next year. And he's really solid off the bench (7.7 ppg and 5.7 rpg in just 15 mpg). They don't lose much with him on the floor. Maye is not terribly athletic and will get abused by Tatum defensively, but can really shoot (41% from 3 this year). The Heels have been occasionally willing to go small with Jackson at the 4, but those are few and far between (and largely related to injuries to one of their bigs). If Tatum gives Hicks and Maye too much trouble, we might see that switch. But I'd expect UNC to try to play big as long as they can.

Wings: Jackson (6'8", 210lb junior) is the star on the wing. He was a McDonald's guy and top-tier recruit (like Hicks) who just hasn't made the transition like other guys recruited at that level. He's stepped his game up a lot this year, and now shoots 39% from 3 and 77% from the line while averaging 18.6 ppg. He's not a great ballhandler, but he's a really good shooter both from 3 and in the midrange. He's especially dangerous as a sniper when one of the PGs finds him in transition. The other starter has been Williams (6'4", 180lb soph), who is more of a defensive player than an impact offensive player at this point in his career. Good athlete, not a great shooter. Off the bench comes Pinson (6'6", 210lb junior, yet another highly-recruited McDonald's guy who has been stuck on the bench. He had stepped in nicely since returning from injury as a playmaker off the bench. His shot is bad, but he's really athletic and sees the floor well and rebounds and passes well off the bench. He's also a good defender. He has been out again, so not sure his availability.

Guards: Berry (6'0", 195lb junior) is the star playmaker. He's not excessively fast, but he's a really good shooter and is quite strong with the ball. He's more of a score-first PG, but he distributes too. 42% from 3, 87% from the line, 15 ppg. Behind him is Britt (6'1", 175lb senior), a defense-first PG who is more of a caretaker on offense. Britt is just an okay 3pt shooter, a very poor 2pt shooter, and just a decent minutes-filler as a backup PG for them.

UNC plays as fast as they can. They have 3 good perimeter shooters (Berry, Maye, Jackson) and two okay ones (Britt, Williams). But they get a ton of production on offensive rebounds, where they throw Meeks, Bradley, and Pinson heavily into the mix with smaller doses of Jackson, Maye, and Hicks as well. If we are lazy in getting back, UNC will make us pay. If we are lazy on the defensive glass, UNC will make us pay. If we aren't hitting shots, UNC will make us pay.

We can (and probably should) win this game, especially if we avoid foul trouble and play at our pace. But it's going to be our toughest home game of the season so far. So we'd better bring the same effort we brought to the Notre Dame game if we want to win.

[PackMan97]

Q? How many Carolina graduates does it take to change a lightbulb?
A. All of them. Two to replace the bulb, four to hang the banner in the Dean Dome and the rest to brag they did it better than Duke and NC State.
------
Q. How many Duke graduates does it take to change a lightbulb?
A. One, they just hold the lightbulb and the world revolves around them?
------
Q. How many NC State graduates does it take to change a lightbulb?
A. Five - They change the standard lighbulb from one made tungsten elements or compact flourescents to one featuring long lasting LEDs, commercialize the technology and create an almost $2 billion company that employs over 6,000 people worldwide and never have to change another lightbulb. :)
------
Q. How many flies does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
A. Two, but don't ask me how they got in there.
------
2,000 years ago God was deciding where his only son should be born and had narrowed it down to Chapel Hill and Bethlehem. He eventually chose Bethlehem because he couldn't find three wise men and a virgin in Chapel Hill.
------
Q. How do you get a Carolina graduate off your porch?
A. Pay him for the Pizza!
------
Q. What's the difference between a Porcupine and the Dean Dome?
A. One has 20,000 pricks on the outside, the other has them on the inside.
------
Q. Prior to the AFAM scam, what class did athletes take to remain elegible?
A. Art education for elementary school in which they made such works as turkeys out of pinecones. Apparently this was deemed to hard for most Carolina atheltes to pass and hence the AFAM scam was born.
Ok...so this last one wasn't a joke but is for reals! http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/03/13/north-carolina-tar-heels-paper-classes-ncaa

[NYBri]

UNC plays as fast as they can. They have 3 good perimeter shooters (Berry, Maye, Jackson) and two okay ones (Britt, Williams). But they get a ton of production on offensive rebounds, where they throw Meeks, Bradley, and Pinson heavily into the mix with smaller doses of Jackson, Maye, and Hicks as well. If we are lazy in getting back, UNC will make us pay. If we are lazy on the defensive glass, UNC will make us pay. If we aren't hitting shots, UNC will make us pay.

Pretty much sums it up. Have to play a smart game, hit the open shots and not have a half-ending meltdown.

[Papa John]

Are offensive fouls included in turnover count? I believe they are, and I wonder how much that is impacting Tatum's numbers. He's had a hard time adjusting to referees being pretty quick to charge him with an offensive foul when he's bullying his way to the basket against, usually, much smaller defenders. I think this is egregiously unfair to players like Tatum - what's he supposed to do? not be bigger and stronger than his defender? - as the type of contact they'll allow for smaller players isn't materially different than what Tatum likes to do. He won't get called for that kind of thing in the NBA. But, hopefully he's able to make an adjustment in his game if that's how the college refs are going to call it. His one turnover game against Pittsburgh is encouraging, at least.

I was going to note the same thing with respect to the turnover numbers for Tatum and Allen this season. One key on Thursday will be how the game is called—and I fear the disparity will not be in our favor (as in many games thus far this season, whether home or away [so much for home-cooking when it comes to us and ACC officials]). I know we are young, and have guys still adjusting to the college game, but it's getting a tad frustrating to watch the inconsistency of officiating within many of our games this season (Pitt was actually a refreshing exception to this, so hopefully that trend will continue, though I highly doubt it).

Allen and Tatum (and Giles) in particular have tended to get quick whistles blown on them, yet often don't get the benefit of those same calls on the other end of the floor. I agree with your take that this has impacted their turnover stats (Giles, not so much, given that the phantom whistles on him are often blown while he's rebounding, not driving).

I don't so much mind if the officials call Tatum for his tendency to use his leading arm to gain a bit of leverage on the drive (the 'chicken wing'), as long as they do so on the other end of the floor as well. In most games I've watched this season, they don't call it the same way on the other end of the floor, so I can understand Tatum's frustration at times (although as I say to my kids—if you don't hear a whistle, ya gotta just play on... if you stop to whine, then you're forcing your teammates to play short-handed).

Allen is a whole other story—different drama, as we all know, but he has gotten the absolute short end of the stick ever since the third tripping incident, and it's getting to the point where something needs to be done to protect the kid from injury given the chippy crap he now has to deal with every game (I specifically would note the Wake game in which Childress went for the 2-point takedown on the Duke bench)...

[Troublemaker]

I think this is basically right. Turnover rate isn't my favorite stat since it is dramatically affected by the number of shots you take. If you just take a simpler metric, turnovers/40 minutes, Tatum is pretty high at 3.9 in ACC play. The only regular-rotation Duke players with more in ACC games since '97 are freshman Paulus, sophomore and junior Jay Williams, and Maggette. That's not great, especially for someone without major ball-handling responsibilities.

Thanks. I like per 40 stats as well. Where'd you get the bolded data? Off sports-reference?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Duke is averaging 8 1/2 made 3's a game in conference play, and I think they will have to make at least 10 to have a chance to win this game. And they are certainly capable of doing that.

Overall, I think UNC is too deep and balanced for Duke. UNC will look to play the game at the rim, feeding the post and also driving on Duke. Duke's depth is suspect. Duke absolutely can't afford foul trouble, and UNC knows that. They will attack more off the dribble than they normally do in this game to force Duke into tough defensive decisions.

Kenny Williams has a sweet shot, but his shooting confidence has been lacking. He drained 3 3's against ND, so it's hopeful that will carry over. Lack of scoring from the 2g spot is UNC's biggest weakness.
Berry and Jackson can shoot it, and can't be left alone outside. If Duke doubles the post and UNC has a decent night shooting, it will be an extra tough night on Duke.

If Duke is able to impose their will and overcome UNC's inside game with their strong perimeter game, UNC at least has the flexibility to then go small and matchup with a Berry, Pinson, Williams, Britt, Jackson, Maye, Hicks rotation of fresh players...and freshman Woods and Robinson have also been playing well enough to steal a few quality minutes, too. UNC is deep and can afford to be aggressive defensively.

If UNC's inside game is too much, Duke can only hope to shoot their way out of trouble.

At any rate, players have to play. The best team doesn't always win in this rivalry.

[vick]

Thanks. I like per 40 stats as well. Where'd you get the bolded data? Off sports-reference?

My own spreadsheet, mostly filled with raw data I pulled down from statsheet.com before it shut down, and with sports-reference for more recent years. PM if you'd like a copy.

[CDu]

I give about a 0% chance Duke doubles in the post. For one thing, they never double anyone. And for another, while UNC has one decent post scorer in Meeks, Duke's Jefferson is more than capable of handling that assignment one-on-one. So if UNC is hoping to get open 3s, it will have to come from dribble penetration by Berry, from offensive rebounds, or in transition. Open 3s are one thing Duke doesn't allow in the half-court.

And I think if UNC is forced to go small, that is a HUGE advantage for Duke. UNC's one clear edge is on the glass, and that goes away if they go small.

Ultimately, this is a matchup of talent versus experience. Duke has more talent, UNC more experience. So far this season, Duke hasn't played consistently to our talent. But we sure did against Notre Dame.

Ultimately, I think Duke is a bad matchup for UNC. And I think that, combined with the talent advantage and the home court (UNC hasn't fared at all well on the road this year), will be the difference. Unless Duke shoots poorly, I think we will win.

[Indoor66]

At any rate, players have to play. The best team doesn't always win in this rivalry.

This part of your post is undoubtedly accurate: occasionally UnCheat wins.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I give about a 0% chance Duke doubles in the post. For one thing, they never double anyone. And for another, while UNC has one decent post scorer in Meeks, Duke's Jefferson is more than capable of handling that assignment one-on-one. So if UNC is hoping to get open 3s, it will have to come from dribble penetration by Berry, from offensive rebounds, or in transition. Open 3s are one thing Duke doesn't allow in the half-court.

And I think if UNC is forced to go small, that is a HUGE advantage for Duke. UNC's one clear edge is on the glass, and that goes away if they go small.

Ultimately, this is a matchup of talent versus experience. Duke has more talent, UNC more experience. So far this season, Duke hasn't played consistently to our talent. But we sure did against Notre Dame.

Ultimately, I think Duke is a bad matchup for UNC. And I think that, combined with the talent advantage and the home court (UNC hasn't fared at all well on the road this year), will be the difference. Unless Duke shoots poorly, I think we will win.

Zones and double teams have been the only way to slow UNC's post offense this season.

Jefferson not only has to deal with Meeks, who is in good shape and does not get winded easily, he will also find himself matched up with Hicks and Bradley inside as well. He is in for a challenging night to guard those three with 5 fouls to give.
Nobody else on the Duke roster has proven to be able to guard the post.

UNC has played very well at times going small this season...it is not they way they will want to play the game, but they can go small and match up just fine with Duke.

I agree with those concerned with the overall poor officiating we've seen all season from ACC refs. I just want them to be consistent. Call it tight, or let them play...the players will adjust...just don't confuse the players by mixing up the calls.

[PackMan97]

At any rate, players have to play. The best team doesn't always win in this rivalry.

Duke is at a decided disadvantage, their kids are the only ones that have to go to class and do college level work.

[weezie]

Holy moly, if it's Roger AND Teddy, I may need a straightjacket.

[dahntaysdawg]

Holy moly, if it's Roger AND Teddy, I may need a straightjacket.

I saw on IC of all places (not sure where they got it) that the officials are Eades, Ayers (the one that looks like Dracula?), and Michael Roberts. No Teddy but definitely Roger.

[uh_no]

I saw on IC of all places (not sure where they got it) that the officials are Eades, Ayers (the one that looks like Dracula?), and Michael Roberts. No Teddy but definitely Roger.

http://kenpom.com/blog/roger-ayers-is-the-best-ref/

Also I think his whole premise the analysis is based on is wrong....

[OldPhiKap]

Unfortunately I will miss this one. I am in Sweden and it will be a 2.00am game start!!

Hey, it'll already be tomorrow there when we get the game here! Be a sport and just post the final score to save us all the stress!!

-- Thanks, America.

[aimo]

GO TO HELL CAROLINA!!!!!!!!

Aaaahhhh! I feel better now.

[OldPhiKap]

7149

[madscavenger]

------
Q. How many NC State graduates does it take to change a lightbulb?
A. Five - They change the standard lighbulb from one made tungsten elements or compact flourescents to one featuring long lasting LEDs, commercialize the technology and create an almost $2 billion company that employs over 6,000 people worldwide and never have to change another lightbulb. :)
------


You wouldn't be thinking of that company whose stock never goes anywhere, would you? Gallium Nitride? Show me the money!

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming, shooting the lights out at Cameron in transition while baby blue big guys huff and puff down the court.

[CDu]

Zones and double teams have been the only way to slow UNC's post offense this season.

This is most certainly not true. Zones have worked, yes. But that isn't the only thing that has slowed UNC's post play.


Jefferson not only has to deal with Meeks, who is in good shape and does not get winded easily, he will also find himself matched up with Hicks and Bradley inside as well. He is in for a challenging night to guard those three with 5 fouls to give.
Nobody else on the Duke roster has proven to be able to guard the post.

Two things:
1. Jefferson only has to guard one of them at a time.
2. Hicks and Bradley do most of their work on offensive rebounds and handoffs/alleyoops, not postups.

Jefferson will guard Meeks straight up. And he will likely do a solid job. It will be up to the team to prevent the trio of Meeks/Hicks/Bradley from getting gimme buckets by not losing Berry, not falling for back screens on alleyoops, and boxing out. But defending postups is not high on my list of concerns in this one. I would expect UNC to get most of their paint baskets off things other than post play: dropoffs and offensive rebounds.

[uh_no]

It will be up to the team to prevent the trio of Meeks/Hicks/Bradley from getting gimme buckets by not losing Berry, not falling for back screens on alleyoops, and boxing out.

This is what I am most afraid of.....especially given our still tenuous ability to guard screens....I expect a large amount of icing.

[dukelion]

To me the X-factor is Tatum.

Can he defend the post?

Can he rebound defensively?

Can he take advantage of Hicks or Pinson if Uncheat goes small?

Could be a breakout/doghouse type game for him.

[Pghdukie]

I strongly believe that the Crazies must be at their very best ! We need that facet to control the energy!

[uh_no]

I strongly believe that the Crazies must be at their very best ! We need that facet to control the energy!

something you see with the freshman early in the UNC games is they get a bit over-pumped....and we try to force things and get down early. The energy will be there, for sure, but I hope we channel that in a positive way and don't try to force anything.

[moonpie23]

the cheats are going to wax us by 20....


don't kill the messenger...

[devildeac]

the cheats are going to wax us by 20...


don't kill the messenger...

Whoa! Wait a minute here. What happened to the "we're gonna win this" moonpie from chat a few days ago? :confused: :(

[Troublemaker]

The best team doesn't always win in this rivalry.

I'm surprised you slipped in this pre-excuse, Wheat.

Hmmm, then again, I suppose a coping mechanism is needed when you lose 11 out of 15.



Nobody else on the Duke roster has proven to be able to guard the post.

Funny thing is, they've not proven they CAN'T guard the post, either. Duke defensive possessions rarely involve a post player guarding a postup. This game against UNC will probably include some of that because that's what UNC likes to do.


the cheats are going to wax us by 20...


don't kill the messenger...

Oh stop. We match up well against them.

[Kedsy]

the cheats are going to wax us by 20...


don't kill the messenger...

I'll take Duke + 19, for almost any stakes, you name it.

[moonpie23]

y'all know me pretty well......i'm not usually pessimistic.....

[weezie]

http://kenpom.com/blog/roger-ayers-is-the-best-ref/

Also I think his whole premise the analysis is based on is wrong...


Gaaaah, now I have to go wash my eyeballs out after reading that article. It's terrifying.

And, you're officially killing me moonie...

[awhom111]

It's time for our annual visit from our neighbors down the road. The game will be this Thursday evening at 8 pm ET.

Here's the list of local ACC Network affiliates that will be broadcasting the game: http://theacc.co/mbb17accn0209

If you're not in an area serviced by one of those affiliates, you SHOULD be able to watch on ESPN. I haven't seen a coverage map for the game yet, though.

And you should have the ability to stream the game here: http://theacc.co/mbb17live0209

As I mentioned in the other thread (and every year since ESPN became the primary rights holder), there is no longer any restriction in the ACC footprint and everyone in the United States can watch on ESPN. If a local station carries the ACC Network feed, that is in addition to and not in place of the ESPN feed.

The stream that you linked should continue to be unrestricted globally.

[Steven43]

y'all know me pretty well...i'm not usually pessimistic....

Moon, we got this, don't worry. This is the final UNC in Cameron game for Amile, Grayson, Matt, Harry, Jayson, and maybe Luke. No way they let this one get away. Not a chance.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

CDu...Yes, Jefferson can only guard one at a time, but they are going to keep coming and all have a good post offensive game. He will get caught in switches, and UNC will attack him and force him to guard Hicks and Bradley some, with 15 fouls to 5. Duke will have to have Amile on the floor for lots of minutes, I think there's a good chance that as he goes, so goes this game. I'll be watching his foul count closely.

Jackson is also a nightmare matchup for Duke. He works as hard off the ball as anyone since JJ Reddick.
A good shooting night by him and Berry and the game could get ugly.

[OldPhiKap]

What's the line?

[devildeac]

What's the line?

Well, moonpie has the cheaters by 20...

[BD80]

We need/have to play a full 40. Anything less and we lose. The entire team has show up for the full 40.

And give 110%! Don't forget 110%!



... 2,000 years ago God was deciding where his only son should be born and had narrowed it down to Chapel Hill and Bethlehem. He eventually chose Bethlehem because he couldn't find three wise men and a virgin in Chapel Hill.


I remember it well. ...

There were plenty of virgins in ch, just none were women.

It was a really tough decision, as God wanted to choose the MOST humble of surroundings for the birth of his son. That is why he went with a manger in Bethlehem, to capture the, um, "humble" ambience of chapel hill wafting through the air.

[OldPhiKap]

Well, moonpie has the cheaters by 20...

I saw.

I take the Moonpie premonition seriously.

I predict at least two T's and a skirmish. Duke pulls out a slugfest close.

[Troublemaker]

What's the line?

As you know from the Wager Contest, the line won't be out til tomorrow. But an educated guess would be Duke favored by 2.5 or 3.

[uh_no]

And give 110%! Don't forget 110%!




I remember it well. ...

There were plenty of virgins in ch, just none were women.

It was a really tough decision, as God wanted to choose the MOST humble of surroundings for the birth of his son. That is why he went with a manger in Bethlehem, to capture the, um, "humble" ambience of chapel hill wafting through the air.

given the ratio.... these days every guy should be able to find something....

the odds are good but the goods are odd...

[Spanarkel]

I saw on IC of all places (not sure where they got it) that the officials are Eades, Ayers (the one that looks like Dracula?), and Michael Roberts. No Teddy but definitely Roger.

Mike Eades was a high school teammate of former Duke player Allen Williams in Princeton, WV, which also had Jimmy Miller(good player at UVa). Eades has officiated in two Duke losses this season(Louisville and NCS).

[OldPhiKap]

As you know from the Wager Contest, the line won't be out til tomorrow. But an educated guess would be Duke favored by 2.5 or 3.

Trust me, I've learned nothing from the Wager Contest -- except to stick to poker.

I would have guessed that Carolina would be favored by about 2.5 to 3.5.

[CDu]

Trust me, I've learned nothing from the Wager Contest -- except to stick to poker.

I would have guessed that Carolina would be favored by about 2.5 to 3.5.

If the game was in Chapel Hill, they would probably be 3-4 pt faves. In Durham, we probably get the slight edge.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Stop berry our chances of winning increase highly . Shooters thrive in Cis so we don't need Williams having a career night.

[peterjswift]

This has very little to do with the actual outcome of the game, but I had long been assuming this game was taking place on Wednesday night, not Thursday.

Which was a huge bummer for me, because I would be driving from Western PA home on Wednesday night from around 7:30-10:30 or so, with limited options to listen to the game.

Imagine my joy when I opened this thread and saw Thursday in the title! Thank you, DukeBasketballReport, for once again brightening my day.

[devildeac]

I saw.

I take the Moonpie premonition seriously.

I predict at least two T's and a skirmish. Duke pulls out a slugfest close.

Plus, his radio feed is always ahead of mine...

:rolleyes:;)

[devildeac]

As you know from the Wager Contest, the line won't be out til tomorrow. But an educated guess would be Duke favored by 2.5 or 3.


Trust me, I've learned nothing from the Wager Contest -- except to stick to poker.

I would have guessed that Carolina would be favored by about 2.5 to 3.5.

As OPK posted many ages ago, probiotic plus anti-biotic, whaddaya get?

I'll venture, but not wager, it comes out as a pick 'em.

But, what do I know, I went broke last year in our betting thread :o .

[BandAlum83]

And give 110%! Don't forget 110%!




I remember it well. ...

There were plenty of virgins in ch, just none were women.

It was a really tough decision, as God wanted to choose the MOST humble of surroundings for the birth of his son. That is why he went with a manger in Bethlehem, to capture the, um, "humble" ambience of chapel hill wafting through the air.

And overcome adversity!

Trust your teammates!

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[PackMan97]

UNC-Chapel Hill graduate, Tyler Hansborough reads the children's book , "Chicken Little". This is an oldie, but maybe some of you have missed UNC and the ACC's all-time leading scorer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JieHmC9DH8

I'll admit that NC State has recruited kids that aren't too bright over the years, but in our defense, most of them didn't graduate from NC State. Please keep in mind that Mr. Hansborough's degree is in Communication Studies. One might think he would be able to read a child's book a little better.

[devildeac]

UNC-Chapel Hill graduate, Tyler Hansborough reads the children's book , "Chicken Little". This is an oldie, but maybe some of you have missed UNC and the ACC's all-time leading scorer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JieHmC9DH8

I'll admit that NC State has recruited kids that aren't too bright over the years, but in our defense, most of them didn't graduate from NC State. Please keep in mind that Mr. Hansborough's degree is in Communication Studies. One might think he would be able to read a child's book a little better.

But just think about how much better/more entertaining it would have been if it had been in Swahili. (Assuming, of course, he ever attended any classes.)

:rolleyes:

[BD80]

I saw.

I take the Moonpie premonition seriously.

I predict at least two T's and a skirmish. Duke pulls out a slugfest close.

How many times will ol' roy hit the deck?

And how many times will he get up?

[rasputin]

How many times will ol' roy hit the deck?

And how many times will he get up?

And how many times will Grayson be blamed for it?

[kAzE]

We might not win, but no way we're getting blown out at home. I don't see it.

I'll say Duke 85 UNC 80.

[ChillinDuke]

As OPK posted many ages ago, probiotic plus anti-biotic, whaddaya get?

I'll venture, but not wager, it comes out as a pick 'em.

But, what do I know, I went broke last year in our betting thread :o .

That would be incredible. And you should take Duke all day.

The two teams are close to evenly matched. UNC ranks higher in KenPom, albeit slightly. On a neutral court it's possible that you'd get a Pick 'Em or UNC -0.5. But at Cameron? I'd be shocked.

Should be Duke -3.5. Give or take.

- Chillin

[jipops]

The cheats have a big advantage in the paint on this one. They have 3 guys in Meeks, Bradley, & Hicks that can give them rebounding and scoring. Whereas we pretty much just have Jefferson. I don't see Giles being any factor at all, he just isn't up to this level right now, especially on defense. Tatum may have to be our difference maker here but I think fouls are going to be an issue. I just don't see anybody else on our roster making an impact in areas around the paint.

As for the perimeter, like others have said, locking in on Berry is a must. And we simply have to hit perimeter jumpers at a more than decent rate.

Seems like a very difficult matchup for Duke. So far this season teams have had little trouble scoring inside on us and we get beat up in transition quite often. The cheats have personnel to put us in a lot of difficult matchups. I don't see how we come out of this without a huge game from Tatum and from one of Grayson or Luke. And it will have to be by far our best defensive effort of the season.

[rsvman]

the cheats are going to wax us by 20...


don't kill the messenger...

Reverse weuaxfing (sp??) at its best.

[Doria]

The cheats have a big advantage in the paint on this one. They have 3 guys in Meeks, Bradley, & Hicks that can give them rebounding and scoring. Whereas we pretty much just have Jefferson. I don't see Giles being any factor at all, he just isn't up to this level right now, especially on defense. Tatum may have to be our difference maker here but I think fouls are going to be an issue. I just don't see anybody else on our roster making an impact in areas around the paint.

As for the perimeter, like others have said, locking in on Berry is a must. And we simply have to hit perimeter jumpers at a more than decent rate.

Yeah, my two biggest concerns are foul trouble and 3's, both ours and theirs. This isn't the Carolina shooting team from last year (i.e. only Berry, sometimes); they have several legitimate shooters from long range. They have been inconsistent, but generally within the framework of playing up or down to level of competition. Hope we get a rare night that they're cold against good competition. Maybe they got all their shooting out in the ND game. Conversely, we've got to have guys taking, and making, smart threes, and not just Luke, though I believe he's due for a good game to average out his last one.

On a tangential note, I was heartened to see my (relatively new to watching sports) roommate had put the game on his calendar as "Duke versus the Sad Losers."

[Troublemaker]

The cheats have a big advantage in the paint on this one. They have 3 guys in Meeks, Bradley, & Hicks that can give them rebounding and scoring. Whereas we pretty much just have Jefferson. I don't see Giles being any factor at all, he just isn't up to this level right now, especially on defense. Tatum may have to be our difference maker here but I think fouls are going to be an issue. I just don't see anybody else on our roster making an impact in areas around the paint.

As for the perimeter, like others have said, locking in on Berry is a must. And we simply have to hit perimeter jumpers at a more than decent rate.

Seems like a very difficult matchup for Duke. So far this season teams have had little trouble scoring inside on us and we get beat up in transition quite often. The cheats have personnel to put us in a lot of difficult matchups. I don't see how we come out of this without a huge game from Tatum and from one of Grayson or Luke. And it will have to be by far our best defensive effort of the season.

Yeah, but I bet if we go through posting history, you had made similar posts about most of the past 15 Duke-UNC matchups.

(And so thank you! For continuing tradition. You worry about UNC pregame, then we go and usually win. That's a good tradition to maintain!)

[Billy Dat]

We are back to "The 5 Forwards"

Jones, Jefferson, Kennard, Allen, Tatum - all between 6'5" - 6'9".

This kind of small ball, switch every screen, spread 'em out and exploit mismatches line-up is the modern wave of basketball. You can't protect the rim if your big men are chasing little men 20 feet from the basket so I think we'll have opportunities to both shoot 3s and get to the rim off of mismatches. It's time for the Duke offense to start climbing the KenPom rankings again and I feel like Thursday night is the night.

As for defense, well, K will have had 5 days of practice to get a strategy together. Let's hope it's something crafty.

[BD80]

Reverse weuaxfing (sp??) at its best.

Faux weuaxf?

[Dukelogger]

That would be incredible. And you should take Duke all day.

The two teams are close to evenly matched. UNC ranks higher in KenPom, albeit slightly. On a neutral court it's possible that you'd get a Pick 'Em or UNC -0.5. But at Cameron? I'd be shocked.

Should be Duke -3.5. Give or take.

- Chillin

One thing I'd like to throw out to get ahead of the small but inevitable "...well, maybe Roy gets more out of his players after all..." crowd that will surface after we win by +/-5 on Thursday, using HS rankings as a metrics for comparison, Duke and UNC matchup much more evenly than the sampling of coverage of this matchup that Ive seen seems to be taking into account. Hicks, Berry, Jackson, Pinson, and Bradley were all 5 star players. One senior, three juniors and a freshman. Meeks, Britt and Williams, two seniors and a sophmore, are all 4 stars.

Duke will start two 4 star seniors, a 5 star junior, a 4 star sophmore, and a 5 star freshman. We will sub in two more 5 star freshman. Possibly three depending on fouls, etc. One has had two years worth of injury that has significantly impacted his development (that cant be argued, even by a tarhole,) and the other two have missed time this year due to injury.

I'm optimistic on the outcome, but I can't help but pick up bits and pieces from the lazy media trotting out the "how about ole Roy putting this rag-tag team together" in comparison with Duke and their roster of nothing but 5 star "one and dones" and the local tarhole crowd taking that and running full steam ahead with it. If you wanted to combine stars with experience, you could make the case that, on paper at least, UNC should be further ahead of Duke at this point and it falls squarely on Ole Roy for their lack of development.

Anyway, had to get my first post in and figured I'd rant. Living in Charlotte in close proximity to so many tarholes can be tough, and I hope to find this message board as a place to communicate with balanced, reasonable basketball fans that happen to pull for the same team i pull for:)

[Troublemaker]

If he's recovered enough from back surgery, maybe. But I doubt we get any updates on his status. Coach K sometimes holds a pre-UNC presser, so maybe a journalist can force an update out of him.

According to GoDuke, the pre-UNC presser will take place at 1pm Eastern tomorrow.

[rasputin]

Faux weuaxf?

Geaux Devils!

[gofurman]

Any word on whether Pinson plays in this game? He would play a big role in defending either Luke or Grayson. Without him, we can definitely attack whichever 2 guard they put out there. Would be a great game for Luke to score 30 in a half again 8-)

No time to read through whole post. Is Pinson playing??? Unc is definitely easier to beat without him

I'll be real happy if we win this. UNC is very very good

[gofurman]

Trust me, I've learned nothing from the Wager Contest -- except to stick to poker.

I would have guessed that Carolina would be favored by about 2.5 to 3.5.

RPi has Duke by 1. Basically a pick em. Which means UNC is perceived as slightly better but home court negates that. You get 2 or 3 for being st home

[devildeac]

No time to read through whole post. Is Pinson playing??? Unc is definitely easier to beat without him

I'll be real happy if we win this. UNC is very very good

News and Observer article this AM thought he was close to playing, which, based on the *nc basketball spin machine, just about guarantees he'll play, even if ol roy sends him out on the court via waaahmbulance. :rolleyes:

[BluDvlsN1]

It's been documented that the history of this rivalry is a spread of about 2 points.

It has also been documented that the cheats don't defend the 3 very well at key times.
(see below)

Some of this is a repeat but it's pertinent to the point.


Austin for the W
7150

Kris Jenkins for the W
7151


Malik Monk for the W.
https://twitter.com/BBallSociety_/st...81975558836228

I see an addition to this list with a Cameron back drop ..
Maybe Luke, or Grayson, or Jones, or Tatum, or Jackson..

Pick one, any one, we have the shooters, we're at home..

Not weauxfing, just prognosticating..

Duke by a dagger in the heart of the cheaters, 3.

[OldPhiKap]

Tomorrow is the five-year anniversary of Austin's shot.

Stay thirsty, my friends.

[BluDvlsN1]

Tomorrow is the five-year anniversary of Austin's shot..

One of the sweetest sounding F U's I ever got as I snapped that pic..


7152

[NM Duke Fan]

And how many times will Grayson be blamed for it?
Laughing my head off, a classic comment!

[Rich]

Anyway, had to get my first post in and figured I'd rant. Living in Charlotte in close proximity to so many Tar Heels can be tough, and I hope to find this message board as a place to communicate with balanced, reasonable basketball fans that happen to pull for the same team i pull for:)

Move along, then, you won't find any of that in this here parts unless you're willing to criticize those playing, those not playing, how much they are (or are not) playing, why Derryck Thornton left and whether he would have been the greatest point guard of all time, what type of beer you like, how much you hate the officials, announcers, and ESPN, and the style of BBQ you prefer. Oh yeah, it also helps if you know what to do in Durham on game day.

[Olympic Fan]

It's been documented that the history of this rivalry is a spread of about 2 points.

It has also been documented that the cheats don't defend the 3 very well at key times.


I think you have put your finger on it. UNC doesn't defend the 3 well (11th in the ACC). On the other hand, UNC is the best rebounding team in the ACC -- by a wide margin.

Can Duke stay close on the boards? I should note that Miami is the only ACC team to out-rebound them and the Canes easily beat them (Georgia Tech was close -- down just seven rebounds ... UNC's average margin is plus-13), Keep it under 10 and I'll be happy.

Duke is a good 3-point shooting team -- but 3-point shooting is erratic.

Just an example -- NC State has the absolute worst 3-point defense in the ACC. Their last three opponents have hit 50 percent or better from 3-point range. Georgia Tech, the worst 3-point team in the ACC -- by far -- hit 10 of 16 3s against them. Duke -- which got nothing but wide-open looks all night -- hit just 8 of 28 attempts. That's what cost us the game

Shoot 40 percent against UNC from 3 and I'll like our chances.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think you have put your finger on it. UNC doesn't defend the 3 well (11th in the ACC). On the other hand, UNC is the best rebounding team in the ACC -- by a wide margin.

Can Duke stay close on the boards? I should note that Miami is the only ACC team to out-rebound them and the Canes easily beat them (Georgia Tech was close -- down just seven rebounds ... UNC's average margin is plus-13), Keep it under 10 and I'll be happy.

Duke is a good 3-point shooting team -- but 3-point shooting is erratic.

Just an example -- NC State has the absolute worst 3-point defense in the ACC. Their last three opponents have hit 50 percent or better from 3-point range. Georgia Tech, the worst 3-point team in the ACC -- by far -- hit 10 of 16 3s against them. Duke -- which got nothing but wide-open looks all night -- hit just 8 of 28 attempts. That's what cost us the game

Shoot 40 percent against UNC from 3 and I'll like our chances.

And our changes on the boards? With 2 plus-rebounders (Giles and Jefferson) and the longest player in Duke history (Bolden), one would assume Duke has a strong chance. But playing time and style likely dictate the opposite.

[kAzE]

And our changes on the boards? With 2 plus-rebounders (Giles and Jefferson) and the longest player in Duke history (Bolden), one would assume Duke has a strong chance. But playing time and style likely dictate the opposite.

Wait, what?? This is news to me.

Just looked up his wingspan, and DraftExpress has it at 7'6".

I would have guessed Elton Brand had you asked me, but Elton is listed at 7'5.5" . . .

Brandon Ingram had a 7'3" wingspan, and Amile's is "just" 7'0".

You might just be right . . .

However, we might have a new record holder if we can manage to snag Mo Bamba and his ABSURD 7'8" wingspan.

[Henderson]

I hope somebody has a sign at the game quoting Bubba's comment to CBS: "Is this academic fraud? Yes, it is by a normal person's standards."

[OldPhiKap]

"You lie
You cheat
so how can you compete?"


Repeat as the spirit takes the crowd.

[BandAlum83]

Move along, then, you won't find any of that in this here parts unless you're willing to criticize those playing, those not playing, how much they are (or are not) playing, why Derryck Thornton left and whether he would have been the greatest point guard of all time, what type of beer you like, how much you hate the officials, announcers, and ESPN, and the style of BBQ you prefer. Oh yeah, it also helps if you know what to do in Durham on game day.

Does it help to know the height (in inches) of cinder blocks placed both horizontally and vertically and the height differential by place of manufacture?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wait, what?? This is news to me.

Just looked up his wingspan, and DraftExpress has it at 7'6".

I would have guessed Elton Brand had you asked me, but Elton is listed at 7'5.5" . . .

Brandon Ingram had a 7'3" wingspan, and Amile's is "just" 7'0".

You might just be right . . .

However, we might have a new record holder if we can manage to snag Mo Bamba and his ABSURD 7'8" wingspan.

Yeah- Bolden is crazy long. Couple that with his height (6'11") and he's much longer than Brand.

[gam7]

"You lie
You cheat
so how can you compete?"


Repeat as the spirit takes the crowd.

I like it. A variation:

"You lie
You cheat
Still easy to defeat."

[Spanarkel]

Yeah- Bolden is crazy long. Couple that with his height (6'11") and he's much longer than Brand.

Bolden is long but he's on a short leash this year, for sure.

[Indoor66]

Bolden is long but he's on a short leash this year, for sure.

But a leash of his own making?

[wilson]

...it also helps if you know what to do in Durham on game day.As long as you don't tell anyone to go to Bullock's.

[Spanarkel]

But a leash of his own making?

Possibly, but when you go in the game possibly/probably subconsciously thinking "I can't make a mistake or I'm going to be pulled," your performance may suffer(actual mileage may vary). I think a one minute "run" may be worse than a DNP-CD psychologically. I watched the replay of the Pitt game and didn't see anything egregious that Bolden did or didn't do.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

So how early do people show up for this game? It will be my first time attending UNC @ Duke and trying to plan accordingly. Should be a good game, I think Grayson will be the difference in this one, he really stepped it up against them last season hopefully he does so again. That and rebounding will determine how this game goes.

[uh_no]

So how early do people show up for this game? It will be my first time attending UNC @ Duke and trying to plan accordingly. Should be a good game, I think Grayson will be the difference in this one, he really stepped it up against them last season hopefully he does so again. That and rebounding will determine how this game goes.

doors are listed as opening at 7...though they have been known to open them slightly early for bigger game.

Students haven't had to be there since personal checks the other nights, but they'll start milling about during the afternoon to start....preparing....for the game.

I'd say show up 5 or 6. There's always ways to kill time....head into the new sports shop or the main campus shop, mingle around the new west union, hit up the museum....or bring some brews of your own (conspicuously pouring into red solo cup recommended as I don't know the specific rules) and hang out in k-ville until go time

[Steven43]

As long as you don't tell anyone to go to Bullock's.

Though it may seem almost impossible to believe, Bullock's has good fresh seafood shipped in from the North Carolina coast once or twice every week. Their BBQ is not the best, but the seafood is worth the trip, especially if you get to know the owner, Tommy Bullock. He personally makes me a seafood sampler plate that is delicious, I promise you.

[Dukelogger]

As long as you don't tell anyone to go to Bullock's.

Durham has changed quite a bit since I was in school, and I admit I need to dig deeper into the microbrew scene, and just new eateries and watering holes in general in Durham, but surely you jest about Bullock's. As someone that grew up east of I-95 in the Carolinas I feel somewhat justified in weighing in on BBQ quality and preference, and while I'd agree the actual BBQ at Bullock's is not exactly first-rate the overall experience (even sans booze) never disappoints.

Seriously, (and obviously I'm kind of a newbie here and am most likely missing an inside joke) is "hating" on Bullock's really a thing? I've eaten there probably 20 times and never once had a bad experience.

[Billy Dat]

Good podcast game preview by TDD

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-devils-den-podcast/id1147667552?mt=2&i=1000380935746

I assume that Duke will come out with the 5 forwards small ball line-up but these guys think Harry will start for Matt to try and match size.

[PackMan97]

Please, for fans of all other college teams, please beat the mother living crap out of those Cheaters! They do not believe they did anything against the rules to funnel thousands and atheltes through classes that required no work, no class time, no effort at all.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/north-carolina-ad-lays-out-academic-fraud-defense-ncaa-overcharged-tar-heels/


The NCAA "overcharged" North Carolina in its long-standing academic fraud case, UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham told CBS Sports in a wide-ranging conversation about the association's tactics and intentions during the investigation.
Revealing what seems to be North Carolina's defense in the case, Cunningham told CBS Sports, "Is this academic fraud? Yes, it is by a normal person's standards. But by the NCAA definition [it is not]."



"[I told the NCAA] if a class is on my transcript, I have a grade, I have a credit," Cunningham added. "How are you -- as the outside athletic agency -- telling me that's not good?"


The entire article is filled with bull poop like that from Cunningham. Where is the rest of the ACC in this? I swear, if you don't beat Carolina on Thursday, I'm gonna...I'm gonna...well I'm gonna go on some message boards and post how disappointed I am that truth, justice and the american way did not prevail and that cheaters do win.

[uh_no]

Seriously, (and obviously I'm kind of a newbie here and am most likely missing an inside joke) is "hating" on Bullock's really a thing? I've eaten there probably 20 times and never once had a bad experience.

dude....you're expecting consensus on BBQ? There's your problem. Apparently venerating backyard BBQ is a thing too...though I haven't figured out why.

[slower]

Moon, we got this, don't worry. This is the final UNC in Cameron game for Amile, Grayson, Matt, Harry, Jayson, and maybe Luke. No way they let this one get away. Not a chance.

Appreciate your optimism, but haven't we learned - MANY, MANY times - to not "guarantee" victories? ANYTHING could happen.

[slower]

Seriously, (and obviously I'm kind of a newbie here and am most likely missing an inside joke) is "hating" on Bullock's really a thing? I've eaten there probably 20 times and never once had a bad experience.

Not sure that making the objective observation that their food sucks qualifies as "hating."

[Indoor66]

Possibly, but when you go in the game possibly/probably subconsciously thinking "I can't make a mistake or I'm going to be pulled," your performance may suffer(actual mileage may vary). I think a one minute "run" may be worse than a DNP-CD psychologically. I watched the replay of the Pitt game and didn't see anything egregious that Bolden did or didn't do.

Gee, that is how a lot of life works. Maybe it is a Coach K teaching technique.

[Spanarkel]

Gee, that is how a lot of life works. Maybe it is a Coach K teaching technique.

I was simply stating my opinion on Bolden's playing opportunities so far this year. IMO, your "Gee, that is how a lot of life works" comment could easily be construed as sarcastic. I hope that this wasn't how it was intended.

[wilson]

...surely you jest about Bullock's. As someone that grew up east of I-95 in the Carolinas I feel somewhat justified in weighing in on BBQ quality and preference, and while I'd agree the actual BBQ at Bullock's is not exactly first-rate the overall experience (even sans booze) never disappoints.

Seriously, (and obviously I'm kind of a newbie here and am most likely missing an inside joke) is "hating" on Bullock's really a thing? I've eaten there probably 20 times and never once had a bad experience.


Not sure that making the objective observation that their food sucks qualifies as "hating."What slower said.
I do not jest in the slightest. I've never had a negative "experience " at Bullock's either; the service has always been cordial, responsive, etc. But I've also never had food there that was any good. That's a rather important piece of my assessment of any restaurant.

[slower]

What slower said.
I do not jest in the slightest. I've never had a negative "experience " at Bullock's either; the service has always been cordial, responsive, etc. But I've also never had food there that was any good. That's a rather important piece of my assessment of any restaurant.

Yep. Lovely people - terrible food.

[Papa John]

Durham has changed quite a bit since I was in school, and I admit I need to dig deeper into the microbrew scene, and just new eateries and watering holes in general in Durham, but surely you jest about Bullock's. As someone that grew up east of I-95 in the Carolinas I feel somewhat justified in weighing in on BBQ quality and preference, and while I'd agree the actual BBQ at Bullock's is not exactly first-rate the overall experience (even sans booze) never disappoints.

Seriously, (and obviously I'm kind of a newbie here and am most likely missing an inside joke) is "hating" on Bullock's really a thing? I've eaten there probably 20 times and never once had a bad experience.

I interpreted the "not telling anyone about Bullock's" as a means of preventing it from becoming overcrowded on a game day (an understandable urge to keep local gems like Bullock's or the Green Room to oneself). Personally, I think Bullock's is fine, though I much prefer Allen & Son.

Edit: And I see I misinterpreted... Such is the danger of skimming a thread during lunchtime at work [sigh]... I do have to agree, though—the food at Bullock's has always been underwhelming, in my opinion...

[Rich]

Move along, then, you won't find any of that in this here parts unless you're willing to criticize those playing, those not playing, how much they are (or are not) playing, why Derryck Thornton left and whether he would have been the greatest point guard of all time, what type of beer you like, how much you hate the officials, announcers, and ESPN, and the style of BBQ you prefer. Oh yeah, it also helps if you know what to do in Durham on game day.

Well, the recent discussion ticks two of my boxes. Shall we move on to Derryck Thornton? ;)

[subzero02]

The Vegas insider consensus point spread has Duke at -2.5

[Neals384]

the cheats are going to wax us by 20...

don't kill the messenger...

cowpie, moonpie


This has very little to do with the actual outcome of the game, but I had long been assuming this game was taking place on Wednesday night, not Thursday.

Which was a huge bummer for me, because I would be driving from Western PA home on Wednesday night from around 7:30-10:30 or so, with limited options to listen to the game.

Imagine my joy when I opened this thread and saw Thursday in the title! Thank you, DukeBasketballReport, for once again brightening my day.

And you can pretty much count on the game not being postponed by a day or moved to a different venue!


One thing I'd like to throw out to get ahead of the small but inevitable "...well, maybe Roy gets more out of his players after all..." crowd that will surface after we win by +/-5 on Thursday, using HS rankings as a metrics for comparison, Duke and UNC matchup much more evenly than the sampling of coverage of this matchup that Ive seen seems to be taking into account. Hicks, Berry, Jackson, Pinson, and Bradley were all 5 star players. One senior, three juniors and a freshman. Meeks, Britt and Williams, two seniors and a sophmore, are all 4 stars.

Duke will start two 4 star seniors, a 5 star junior, a 4 star sophmore, and a 5 star freshman. We will sub in two more 5 star freshman. Possibly three depending on fouls, etc. One has had two years worth of injury that has significantly impacted his development (that cant be argued, even by a Tar Heel,) and the other two have missed time this year due to injury.

I'm optimistic on the outcome, but I can't help but pick up bits and pieces from the lazy media trotting out the "how about ole Roy putting this rag-tag team together" in comparison with Duke and their roster of nothing but 5 star "one and dones" and the local Tar Heel crowd taking that and running full steam ahead with it. If you wanted to combine stars with experience, you could make the case that, on paper at least, UNC should be further ahead of Duke at this point and it falls squarely on Ole Roy for their lack of development.

Anyway, had to get my first post in and figured I'd rant. Living in Charlotte in close proximity to so many Tar Heels can be tough, and I hope to find this message board as a place to communicate with balanced, reasonable basketball fans that happen to pull for the same team i pull for:)

Nice post, logger. Hope to hear from you often.


So how early do people show up for this game? It will be my first time attending UNC @ Duke and trying to plan accordingly. Should be a good game, I think Grayson will be the difference in this one, he really stepped it up against them last season hopefully he does so again. That and rebounding will determine how this game goes.

You are late already;)

[Doria]

I know it goes against the general spirit of this thread, but I thought this article was nice. I remember hearing that they Allen and Berry are friendly acquaintances, but I didn't know any of the context (not knowing they're both from FL): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18638009/duke-blue-devils-grayson-allen-north-carolina-tar-heels-joel-berry-ii-share-friendship

If someone posted this already, apologies. I just now saw it. GoDuke!

[Devilwin]

The clown sitting in for David Glenn today said in his mind's scenarios, UNC wins in eight of ten...But hey, what does he know?:mad:

[InSpades]

I know it goes against the general spirit of this thread, but I thought this article was nice. I remember hearing that they Allen and Berry are friendly acquaintances, but I didn't know any of the context (not knowing they're both from FL): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18638009/duke-blue-devils-grayson-allen-north-carolina-tar-heels-joel-berry-ii-share-friendship

If someone posted this already, apologies. I just now saw it. GoDuke!

2 things about this article... 1st:
"He nearly started a bench-clearing brawl when he got tangled with Bryant Crawford at Wake Forest. Never mind that Wake Forest's Brandon Childress also received a technical foul."

Now the writer is basically trying to defend Grayson here but... Grayson's technical came on a different play and wasn't for anything he did to another player. Saying Childress "also received" a technical makes it sound like Allen got a technical for "nearly starting a bench-clearing brawl". Gah. Come on ESPN.

Possibly related... the 2nd:
I love this line - "The Allens, through a Duke spokesman, declined to be interviewed for this article."

Somehow I don't think the Allens want to be a part of anything ESPN-related nowadays. I don't blame them one bit.

[devildeac]

One if by land.

Two if by sea.

Three if by Rivers:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMMB_sbXI60

Happy 5 year anniversary!

[Steven43]

Well, the recent discussion ticks two of my boxes. Shall we move on to Derryck Thornton? ;)

Totally ready to move on to DT!! Anyone have a video of a recent USC practice so we can dream of what Thornton could doing for Duke had he stayed? UNC wouldn't stand a chance had we DT in our lineup! Whose minutes would he be stealing? Thanks for bringing this up, Rich.

[duketaylor]

Not to start a new thread. Definition of cheating: this is based on ramifications of those stealing signs, hiring lip-readers, playing games with snap-counts, etc. Not a response to what unc or the Patriots have done, but where is the line drawn?

For me, trying to read a 3rd base coach giving signs is fine, figuring out a PG w a fist up in hoops what it means.

Not about to go where unc or Pats have done. Just curious aa to opinions.

[BandAlum83]

I interpreted the "not telling anyone about Bullock's" as a means of preventing it from becoming overcrowded on a game day (an understandable urge to keep local gems like Bullock's or the Green Room to oneself). Personally, I think Bullock's is fine, though I much prefer Allen & Son.

Edit: And I see I misinterpreted... Such is the danger of skimming a thread during lunchtime at work [sigh]... I do have to agree, though—the food at Bullock's has always been underwhelming, in my opinion...


Much better to put work aside to check the boards 3 times a day, as opposed to ever skimming.

We place importance upon that which we prioritize.

Get your priorities in line, son!

[Indoor66]

Get your priorities in line, son!

You got to get your mind right!

[Steven43]

Appreciate your optimism, but haven't we learned - MANY, MANY times - to not "guarantee" victories? ANYTHING could happen.

Come on slower, deep down you know WE GOT THIS! Be confident. Believe. I'm feeling this one strongly. You're not? Honestly?

[dukelifer]

Don't know what to think about this one. UNC is a strange team. The are not a great road team but this is not really a road game. On paper they have several key advantages over Duke. Their inside players are better at this stage of their careers. Jackson cancels out Tatum. Duke's guards are better in some ways but Berry is a handful when he is on. UNC may have better overall depth as well. So on paper, UNC looks like a tough match up. But - if Duke shoots it well and doesn't try to run with the Heels- they could get a win. Foul trouble could be the difference. Rivalry matches are hard to predict- particularly about the play of the young guys. Duke will be ready but this one could go in many different directions. Duke cannot have a flat first half or it will be over.

[MChambers]

The clown sitting in for David Glenn today said in his mind's scenarios, UNC wins in eight of ten...But hey, what does he know?:mad:

They don't play the game in his little mind.

[Kedsy]

UNC may have better overall depth as well.

Really? Just because Roy is willing to play Britt, Maye, Robinson, and Woods doesn't mean they're quality depth.

[dukelifer]

Really? Just because Roy is willing to play Britt, Maye, Robinson, and Woods doesn't mean they're quality depth.

Did not say quality but they may have better depth. Maye is not a bad player and fairly efficient. He has scored in most every ACC game he has played. Bradley is getting about 8 a game and 6 bounds. We would love that from our other bigs. If Pinson is healthy- he is a very athletic and experienced addition to the team. Britt is serviceable. So I think they have pretty decent depth and experienced depth if Pinson is healthy.

Here is head to head assuming Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard and Jefferson as starters

Bolden 2.1 ppg 1.4 rpg
Jackson 10.2 ppg 2.2
Jones 8.3 ppg 3.0


And UNC Assuming Meeks, Hicks, Jackson, Williams and Berry

Maye 4.9 ppg and 3.7rpg
Bradley 7.7ppg and 5.7
Britt 4.9 ppg and 1.8
Pinson 6.2 and 5.2

[uh_no]

Coach K's crazie meeting was tonight at 8. hope he got them all ready to go!

<thankfully, I haven't seen a twitter leak that students are banned from the wilson locker rooms and not allowed to wear any duke gear :) >

[BluDvlsN1]

I didn't see this posted so thought I would share it.

Lot's of ways to win, Let's go Duke!!


https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/829518453308420096

[Kedsy]

Did not say quality but they may have better depth. Maye is not a bad player and fairly efficient. He has scored in most every ACC game he has played. Bradley is getting about 8 a game and 6 bounds. We would love that from our other bigs. If Pinson is healthy- he is a very athletic and experienced addition to the team. Britt is serviceable. So I think they have pretty decent depth and experienced depth if Pinson is healthy.

Here is head to head assuming Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard and Jefferson as starters

Bolden 2.1 ppg 1.4 rpg
Jackson 10.2 ppg 2.2
Jones 8.3 ppg 3.0


And UNC Assuming Meeks, Hicks, Jackson, Williams and Berry

Maye 4.9 ppg and 3.7rpg
Bradley 7.7ppg and 5.7
Britt 4.9 ppg and 1.8
Pinson 6.2 and 5.2

First of all, what's the difference between "quality" and "better"?

Second, Matt Jones has played the 2nd most minutes on Duke's team this year, not sure why you put him on the bench, and I have no idea why you'd include Harry Giles among the top five, since he's only played 12.4 mpg in the 12 games he's played. For the purposes of the discussion of depth, I'd suggest excluding the top six, which in my mind would be:

Duke: Kennard, Allen, Jones, Tatum, Jefferson, Jackson;
UNC: Jackson, Berry, Hicks, Meeks, Williams, Bradley;

Which leaves us with Maye, Britt, Robinson, Woods, and Pinson for UNC, and Giles, Bolden, Vrankovic, White, DeLaurier, and Jeter for Duke.

When comparing the above, your ppg numbers don't tell us much other than which coach plays his bench more minutes. To discuss who has "better depth" you'd need to use some advanced stats, or at least per 40 numbers, and if you do that, I would argue that Duke's depth is far superior.

For example, you say Maye (UNC's best player outside its top six) is "fairly efficient," but his oRtg is 109.6, worse than Harry's (114.3), Antonio's (125.4), and Jack's (126.0). Similarly, his PER is 17.5, also worse than Harry's (20.3), Antonio's (19.4), or Jack's (18.0). His per 40 numbers (15.0 pts; 11.4 rebs; 3.6 assts) don't really distinguish him over Harry (17.2/14.8/1.3) or Antonio (13.1/12.6/2.5). The only difference is he gets more minutes.

Similarly, Britt (105.2 oRtg; 10.9 PER; 9.9/3.7/5.5 per 40), Robinson (109.9 oRtg; 12.0 PER, 11.3/6.4/3.8 per 40), and Woods (77.1 oRtg; 7.8 PER, 9.0/7.3/6.6 per 40) are fairly inefficient players, and Pinson has only played 6 games. Again, it's hard to argue that the three (or four) of them exceed whichever two of Duke's bench players listed above (Giles, Vrankovic, White) who aren't paired with Maye, plus one (or two) of our somewhat inefficient players (Marques: 90.6, 6.9, 10.1/7.0/0.3; Javin: 94.7, 10.6, 8.1/11.0/0.5; Chase: 95.4, 9.9, 6.9/7.2/0.8).

In any event, if you take Maye, Britt, Pinson, Robinson (9.2 mpg) and Woods (8.7 mpg), I'll happily take Harry, Antonio, Jack, and 2 of Chase, Marques, Javin, and I think I'd handily win any contest of quality (or better) depth.

[MarkD83]

I'd suggest excluding the top six, which in my mind would be:

Duke: Kennard, Allen, Jones, Tatum, Jefferson, Jackson;
UNC: Jackson, Berry, Hicks, Meeks, Williams, Bradley;

Which leaves us with Maye, Britt, Robinson, Woods, and Pinson for UNC, and Giles, Bolden, Vrankovic, White, DeLaurier, and Jeter for Duke.



The discussion about depth of bench and advantages is more one of coaching philosophy.

UNC for many years puts more bigs on the floor than guards and has tried to use more players.

Coach K has relied on guards and a shorter bench.

So as a Duke fan I would love for Roy to send in a "blue team" of Bradley, Maye, Britt, Robinson and Woods (assuming Pinson is hurt) for 15-20 mins. Please Roy play your worst 5 players for a long period of time. You can even use all of your walk-ons!!

I am also not as concerned about Duke's bigs (Amile or Jayson) getting early fouls because we have Harry, Marques, Antonio to sub-in. Jack is also 6'7" and I do not know if Chase and Javin are good to go but if they are that is 5 players 6'10" or taller to bang with UNC.

One other comment about depth was that in UNC's normal rotation, Roy has 15 fouls to use against Amile (Meeks, Hicks and Bradley). Please Roy have all of them foul early and often to take advantage of this difference. I would love to see Amile take 15-20 foul shots during this game.

[dukelifer]

First of all, what's the difference between "quality" and "better"?

Second, Matt Jones has played the 2nd most minutes on Duke's team this year, not sure why you put him on the bench, and I have no idea why you'd include Harry Giles among the top five, since he's only played 12.4 mpg in the 12 games he's played. For the purposes of the discussion of depth, I'd suggest excluding the top six, which in my mind would be:

Duke: Kennard, Allen, Jones, Tatum, Jefferson, Jackson;
UNC: Jackson, Berry, Hicks, Meeks, Williams, Bradley;

Which leaves us with Maye, Britt, Robinson, Woods, and Pinson for UNC, and Giles, Bolden, Vrankovic, White, DeLaurier, and Jeter for Duke.

When comparing the above, your ppg numbers don't tell us much other than which coach plays his bench more minutes. To discuss who has "better depth" you'd need to use some advanced stats, or at least per 40 numbers, and if you do that, I would argue that Duke's depth is far superior.

For example, you say Maye (UNC's best player outside its top six) is "fairly efficient," but his oRtg is 109.6, worse than Harry's (114.3), Antonio's (125.4), and Jack's (126.0). Similarly, his PER is 17.5, also worse than Harry's (20.3), Antonio's (19.4), or Jack's (18.0). His per 40 numbers (15.0 pts; 11.4 rebs; 3.6 assts) don't really distinguish him over Harry (17.2/14.8/1.3) or Antonio (13.1/12.6/2.5). The only difference is he gets more minutes.

Similarly, Britt (105.2 oRtg; 10.9 PER; 9.9/3.7/5.5 per 40), Robinson (109.9 oRtg; 12.0 PER, 11.3/6.4/3.8 per 40), and Woods (77.1 oRtg; 7.8 PER, 9.0/7.3/6.6 per 40) are fairly inefficient players, and Pinson has only played 6 games. Again, it's hard to argue that the three (or four) of them exceed whichever two of Duke's bench players listed above (Giles, Vrankovic, White) who aren't paired with Maye, plus one (or two) of our somewhat inefficient players (Marques: 90.6, 6.9, 10.1/7.0/0.3; Javin: 94.7, 10.6, 8.1/11.0/0.5; Chase: 95.4, 9.9, 6.9/7.2/0.8).

In any event, if you take Maye, Britt, Pinson, Robinson (9.2 mpg) and Woods (8.7 mpg), I'll happily take Harry, Antonio, Jack, and 2 of Chase, Marques, Javin, and I think I'd handily win any contest of quality (or better) depth.

Roy does play his bench more and has used them more in ACC games. If needed today- they will be a bit more ready for this moment- although to be fair, I expect Vrank would play well if called on. I excluded Chase who is injured. He would be a big addition in the game and would- if healthy- tip the balance in Duke's favor for sure. Advanced metrics need some way to factor in experience - which is widely varying in the college game.

[arnie]

I didn't see this posted so thought I would share it.

Lot's of ways to win, Let's go Duke!!


https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/829518453308420096

We have no chance tonite. N&O rates 4 of the 5 UNC starters superior to their Duke counterparts at each position and gives the UNC bench the edge also. This includes Meeks over Jefferson.

Interesting that the article doesn't mention intangibles or coaching.

[mgtr]

We have no chance tonite. N&O rates 4 of the 5 UNC starters superior to their Duke counterparts at each position and gives the UNC bench the edge also. This includes Meeks over Jefferson.

Interesting that the article doesn't mention intangibles or coaching.

So, I would guess there is no real point in watching the game. :confused:

[TKG]

"You lie
You cheat
so how can you compete?"


Repeat as the spirit takes the crowd.

This chant fits better with the Cameron crowds of the late 70s/early 80s. No way that K and the current leadership would allow this to occur in today's Club Cameron. ( things were better when I was kid. Harrumph!)

[Spanarkel]

You got to get your mind right!

Hopefully Luke will have a hot hand tonight(as he has had most of the season). Let's go, Duke!

[OldPhiKap]

This chant fits better with the Cameron crowds of the late 70s/early 80s. No way that K and the current leadership would allow this occur in today's Club Cameron. ( things were better when I was kid. Harrumph!)

"More BOG, no cheer sheets"

[Duke79UNLV77]

"More BOG, no cheer sheets"

Those were the days! When our rowdiest students were always right behind the opponents' bench so that they sometimes had to take timeouts out on the floor so they could hear each other. There was a TV side and a non-TV side, but they were both students' sides.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I didn't see this posted so thought I would share it.

Lot's of ways to win, Let's go Duke!!


https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/829518453308420096
Thanks. That's what my coffee was missing!

That Dunleavy dunk never gets old.

Plus, I love that Rivers' and Jenkins' shots are from virtually the same spot. Cheaters must look at that spot on the three point line and shiver.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Those were the days! When our rowdiest students were always right behind the opponents' bench so that they sometimes had to take timeouts out on the floor so they could hear each other. There was a TV side and a non-TV side, but they were both students' sides.
The BOGgers were just amazing. Leaning as close to the opposing team huddle as possible and screaming at the top of their lungs for the entire duration of every time out. Yes, those were the days.

[Steven43]

We have no chance tonite. N&O rates 4 of the 5 UNC starters superior to their Duke counterparts at each position and gives the UNC bench the edge also. This includes Meeks over Jefferson.

Interesting that the article doesn't mention intangibles or coaching.

This is madness. It's completely illogical to assess basketball players in a one-on-one manner. This is a TEAM sport. The better team will win and I am confident that team is Duke.

[budwom]

Really? Just because Roy is willing to play Britt, Maye, Robinson, and Woods doesn't mean they're quality depth.

Not to get too embroiled in who has better depth...but if you don't play it, it really isn't depth. (I do like our bench guys more than their bench guys).
I can see for sure that our chances of winning each game NOW is maximized with the Iron Six playing small ball.
However, I see zero chance we win a title that way.

Hopefully Giles and Bolden begin to get more time (a total of what, seven minutes in the last game)?
I'm still hopeful...

I'll be stunned if we get thru tonight playing six guys almost exclusively (foul trouble)...

[killerleft]

Sheesh, N&O. Tell it like it is! I just hope our lil' ole team can come out of this game without permanent disfigurement.

Woe is us. They'll Argyle with Listerine and spit us out like dead germs. Let's call the whole thing off. Or not.:)

[BluDvlsN1]

We have no chance tonite. N&O rates 4 of the 5 UNC starters superior to their Duke counterparts at each position and gives the UNC bench the edge also. This includes Meeks over Jefferson.

Interesting that the article doesn't mention intangibles or coaching.



I'm not sure what "article" your referring to.

When I click on the twitter link I posted it comes up with a video of
10 plays against the unCheats where we are successful.

If the N&O is the difinitive authority or their "reporter"
then for me personally I'd be doing some more research
on my own.
I see lots of ways we can win, also.

The link is intended to share a list if our positive outcomes!

I never thought for a second that it was necessarily a prediction for tonight.
But It does allow for a trip down memory lane of how we made it happen, many times.

For me, hell I'm excited, this is my time of the year and today is "prime time"

My glass is 1/2 full.

Tip it up, play ball and...
Rip em up, Tear em up, Give em hell Duke! [repeat]

[weezie]

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/829518453308420096


It's just the BEST!!!!!!!!!!!

Full-throated laughing!

[rsvman]

.... Duke cannot have a flat first half or it will be over.

I hope we don't have a flat first half, too, but the statement the way you have written it has been definitely disproved on at least 3 occasions I can remember with even a casual perusal of my memory bank.

About 6 or 7 years ago we were down maybe 14 at the half at home and had played horribly. We went on to win the game. In 2015 we were down 8 or 10 with about 3 minutes to go (-ish) and came back to win. In the Rivers game, 5 years ago, we were down 8-12 pretty much the entire game, and we all know how that one ended.

I hope for a robust first-half showing and a lead going into the locker room as much as anybody does, but if there's one thing I've learned watching Duke-UNC games it's that, with very few exceptions, you can't necessarily tell who's going to win by watching the first half (or even by watching 3/4ths of the game).

[PackMan97]

"You lie
You cheat
so how can you compete?"


Repeat as the spirit takes the crowd.

You lie
You cheat
Your athletes you mistreat

I kinda like this version better :)

[jipops]

Yeah, but I bet if we go through posting history, you had made similar posts about most of the past 15 Duke-UNC matchups.

(And so thank you! For continuing tradition. You worry about UNC pregame, then we go and usually win. That's a good tradition to maintain!)

Ha!

There probably is a lot of truth to that.

[sagegrouse]

I believe Duke is the better team, and I expect to win.

There are keys to the game:


Fouls, especially on the big players
Three-point shooting
Rebounding**

Kindly,
Sage Grouse

**When we were out-rebounded 3:2 (46-34), we won by one point; when we were out-rebounded more than 2:1 (64-29), we lost by four points.

[arnie]

I'm not sure what "article" your referring to.

When I click on the twitter link I posted it comes up with a video of
10 plays against the unCheats where we are successful.

If the N&O is the difinitive authority or their "reporter"
then for me personally I'd be doing some more research
on my own.
I see lots of ways we can win, also.

The link is intended to share a list if our positive outcomes!

I never thought for a second that it was necessarily a prediction for tonight.
But It does allow for a trip down memory lane of how we made it happen, many times.

For me, hell I'm excited, this is my time of the year and today is "prime time"

My glass is 1/2 full.

Tip it up, play ball and...
Rip em up, Tear em up, Give em hell Duke! [repeat]

The article is in the online print edition today: Co-authored by Mr. Carter and our new cub reporter. My assessment of our chances is isolated to "opinions" expressed in that article.

[devildeac]

I believe Duke is the better team, and I expect to win.

There are keys to the game:


Fouls, especially on the big players
Three-point shooting
Rebounding**

Kindly,
Sage Grouse

**When we were out-rebounded 3:2 (46-34), we won by one point; when we were out-rebounded more than 2:1 (64-29), we lost by four points.

I agree w/you and Oly Fan about #3 above. I think the rebounding is my biggest worry tonight. I looked at the stats for the 2016 game in CIS and still can't believe we got destroyed on the glass and still only lost by 4. It seemed the cheaters were content to fling up 3 after 3, knowing they'd get the board. :mad:

[blUDAYvil]

Tip it up, play ball and...
TRip em up, Tear em up, Give em hell Duke! [repeat]

FIFY

[budwom]

I believe Duke is the better team, and I expect to win.

There are keys to the game:


Fouls, especially on the big players
Three-point shooting
Rebounding**

Kindly,
Sage Grouse

**When we were out-rebounded 3:2 (46-34), we won by one point; when we were out-rebounded more than 2:1 (64-29), we lost by four points.

What big players (plural) are you referring to, Sage? :) I hope we see more of Giles and Bolden...
I don't see how we appease the Foul Gods without them...

[gofurman]

What's the line?

Duke by 2.5... which basically confirms what I would say - UNC is playing a little better as you get 3 points for being at home. Neutral UNC would be a .5 fav ... at UNC they are a 3+ fav

-splitting hairs though.

It's all about matchups - Vegas only sets a line NOT on what they really think will happen. a line is based on based only on what Vegas thinks will keep half the money on one side and half on the other. That's all it is. So Vegas can pay the winners with the losers money and keep the 10% commission. Lines are often way off. Duke v UNLV and Elon and others this year weren't close. Duke v Pitt was us favored by 16 or so I saw. SO half of bettors felt we would beat Pitt by 16, and half felt Pitt could stay within 16. Vegas wins in any case

[gofurman]

Appreciate your optimism, but haven't we learned - MANY, MANY times - to not "guarantee" victories? ANYTHING could happen.

UNC will kill us by 20. No jinx

[sagegrouse]

What big players (plural) are you referring to, Sage? :) I hope we see more of Giles and Bolden...
I don't see how we appease the Foul Gods without them...

Yeah, on the Duke side I am concerned about Amile and Jayson first. On the UNC side, I would like to see Hicks and Meeks on the bench early and often with foul difficulty.

On getting productive minutes from Harry and Marques: I am the world's foremost advocate on Duke using more players, but I hope it doesn't occur because the aforementioned Blue Devils have to sit.

[Dukelogger]

Yeah, on the Duke side I am concerned about Amile and Jayson first. On the UNC side, I would like to see Hicks and Meeks on the bench early and often with foul difficulty.

On getting productive minutes from Harry and Marques: I am the world's foremost advocate on Duke using more players, but I hope it doesn't occur because the aforementioned Blue Devils have to sit.

I would like to see Joel Berry with foul trouble. He is by far their most critical component IMO and especially with how we match up with them. Every other matchup IMO is a wash or favors Duke, except for the PG position. And he is prone to foul.

[gofurman]

Gee, that is how a lot of life works. Maybe it is a Coach K teaching technique.

True, but I have heard awesome NFL QBs say that doesn't work - you can't tell Brett Farve that you will yank him as soon as he gets an interception.. you undermine his abilities and confidence at that point. He was known for taking risks and throwing 3 TDs and a stupid pick.. and he won.. A LOT !!! I believe Tom Brady had a bad first half just recently? You don't yank him. You keep playing him and see what happens? As Robert Kennedy said "Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly".

"“If you don't try at anything, you can't fail"

Perhaps for tonight this is more appropriate - "I would prefer even to fail with honor than win by cheating".. Sophocles !!!

[devildeac]

cheaters getting in foul trouble? LOL. commish already on that one. :rolleyes:

[budwom]

Yeah, on the Duke side I am concerned about Amile and Jayson first. On the UNC side, I would like to see Hicks and Meeks on the bench early and often with foul difficulty.

On getting productive minutes from Harry and Marques: I am the world's foremost advocate on Duke using more players, but I hope it doesn't occur because the aforementioned Blue Devils have to sit.

Indeed...but I find it very very hard to believe we can play an iron six without losing several of them to fouls..it sure makes the game interesting.

[dukelifer]

I hope we don't have a flat first half, too, but the statement the way you have written it has been definitely disproved on at least 3 occasions I can remember with even a casual perusal of my memory bank.

About 6 or 7 years ago we were down maybe 14 at the half at home and had played horribly. We went on to win the game. In 2015 we were down 8 or 10 with about 3 minutes to go (-ish) and came back to win. In the Rivers game, 5 years ago, we were down 8-12 pretty much the entire game, and we all know how that one ended.

I hope for a robust first-half showing and a lead going into the locker room as much as anybody does, but if there's one thing I've learned watching Duke-UNC games it's that, with very few exceptions, you can't necessarily tell who's going to win by watching the first half (or even by watching 3/4ths of the game).

I agree that you never know in these games. 14 is within reach but 20 may be too big a hole- but hey, this is the week of comebacks. Rivalry games are hard to predict for lots of reasons.

[Spanarkel]

I would like to see Joel Berry with foul trouble. He is by far their most critical component IMO and especially with how we match up with them. Every other matchup IMO is a wash or favors Duke, except for the PG position. And he is prone to foul.

Berry averages 2.35 fouls per game(almost 30mpg) and 3.18 fouls/40 minutes. He did foul out of the UK game in 34 minutes of play, and has committed 4 fouls in two other games this season. I personally wouldn't label Berry as prone to foul.

[Dukelogger]

Berry averages 2.35 fouls per game(almost 30mpg) and 3.18 fouls/40 minutes. He did foul out of the UK game in 34 minutes of play, and has committed 4 fouls in two other games this season. I personally wouldn't label Berry as prone to foul.

So youre telling me theres a chance...

I dont follow UNC but in the very few games Ive watched (UK and GT being two of them) he was definitely prone to foul. But it appears that I was incorrect as the stats tell a different story. Point remains, if he misses significant time in this game I really like our chances.

[kAzE]

Fouls are definitely going to be a huge part of this game, since it's likely going to be played at a high pace. Like always, UNC seems to have a deeper bench than us. I would just like for the officials to call the game fairly . . . the phantom foul calls (especially on Harry Giles) are starting to irritate me. Does anybody out there still think we get all the calls?

[UNCfan]

In my opinion, Duke will have to keep UNC off the boards early and stay out of foul trouble in the post.

UNC will struggle to stop the dribble and if Duke is hitting their shots, it could be a long night for the heels.

Key matchup will be Tatum and Hicks. If Hicks gets in foul trouble, UNC will have to go small to guard him and UNC will lose their rebounding advantage.

As always, it will be fun, in a self hurt kind of way. :)

[Kedsy]

Roy does play his bench more and has used them more in ACC games. If needed today- they will be a bit more ready for this moment

Maybe. Have Harry and Marques been seemingly less than ready because they haven't played so much, or have they not played so much because they seemingly weren't ready? Coach K has often said that readiness comes from practice time, not necessarily from game time. I'm not prepared to say he's wrong.


Not to get too embroiled in who has better depth...but if you don't play it, it really isn't depth.

This is a valid view, but I'm not so sure. I remember when Ryan Kelly got hurt in 2013, and freshman Amile Jefferson stepped in and took a good portion of Ryan's minutes and played well, despite having not played at all before that. I remember Coach K saying something at that time about "depth" meaning you have players who can step in when needed. Also, Grayson Allen in 2015, Casey Sanders in 2001, even Elliot Williams in 2009 (and I'm sure there are lots of other examples), all showed that a player can be part of a team's depth even if they don't play before the need for them arises.


We have no chance tonite. N&O rates 4 of the 5 UNC starters superior to their Duke counterparts at each position and gives the UNC bench the edge also. This includes Meeks over Jefferson.


This is madness. It's completely illogical to assess basketball players in a one-on-one manner. This is a TEAM sport. The better team will win and I am confident that team is Duke.

I agree with Steven, but even taking the claim at face value, it doesn't make sense.

Berry --- Allen
Jackson --- Kennard
Williams --- Jones
Hicks --- Tatum
Meeks --- Jefferson

Match them up that way and I like ours in at least 4 of 5, maybe all five. And as I said before, I like our bench better too.

I guess it's an eye-of-the-beholder thing.

[BluDvlsN1]

Fouls are definitely going to be a huge part of this game, since it's likely going to be played at a high pace.

If this is the case, and I believe it holds merit. There are a load of possibilities.

I posted the below on 12/18/16 after the unc v kentucky game in Vegas.

("While not technically perfect by any means it was an exciting game to watch the cheats lose.

My take away on the cheats is,
Hicks is prone to lazy fouls and can be exposed.
While nc likes to run, limits were apparent for Meeks, he quits mentally when tired,
the consistent fast paced game showed him lacking.
I don't think I've seen that since he lost the weight.
Was it travel/Las Vegas related, or can he been run out of the game?

Jackson was the real deal, but he must be defended intently.
What was apparent there is, what he can do if there is not
a significant defense focused on him.

Our guards are terrific, I don't believe nc has the answer for them, nor Tatum.
I'm not saying it will be easy, those games are always epic,
but I love our team makeup, and depth.")

I believe this still holds true, If it is fast paced then there is a potential to get
Meeks winded like Fox and Monk did in Vegas.
It would also mean more possessions and if "IF" we're hitting 3's and trading
3's for 2's to any degree, there is a window.

We've showed flashes of brilliant ball movement sequences, where defenses are
just unable to react in time,this could be very important today.

They have to watch their fouls also, We have the capacity to penetrate
that could promote some fouls from their bigs, think Hicks here.

It will be interesting to see "K's" game plan, we have the bodies to throw at the interior
if he chooses to use them that way.

Managing Berry and Jackson are key, if their time and possessions are minimized the
less damage they can do, I would love to see us use that 3/4 press to run their
possession clock down and/or create some turnovers.

Lot's of ways to approach the game, creates more ways to win.

[budwom]

^ I get your point, Kedsy....I just think that Bolden's and Giles's ability to step in and contribute in the future when needed (e.g. NCAA tournament) will be
greatly enhanced if they get to play somewhat more in the next month. In practice you go against the same several guys month after month, with no genuine refs.
In games you face all kinds of personnel and styles, with refs keeping track. Very different situations.

If nothing else, tonight will be very interesting.

[Ultrarunner]

Fouls are definitely going to be a huge part of this game, since it's likely going to be played at a high pace. Like always, UNC seems to have a deeper bench than us. I would just like for the officials to call the game fairly . . . the phantom foul calls (especially on Harry Giles) are starting to irritate me. Does anybody out there still think we get all the calls?

Yes - anybody not a Duke fan. Do not confuse them with facts and GIFs. Their worldview requires the excuse.

[NYBri]

Always on edge on Cheats Game Day. Love/Hate relationship with the game itself. Of course I love watching it, but hate what it does to my nerves, stomach, mood and (depending upon the outcome) the rage/euphoria when all is said and done...

But nothing compares to the look on the faces of the CheatFaithful when Austin drained that three. I still get goosebumps.

And, because it's so good:

https://youtu.be/mJqIh7OrL-s

[NYBri]

And, of course, this NEVER gets old:


https://youtu.be/aGFqomc1xsA

[rsvman]

I think running to get Meeks tired or " out of the game" would be a yuuuge mistake. They have a lot of players, and they live to run.
I think we'd be much better off attempting to limit their number of possessions as much as possible. Therefore, play a slower pace, hit the defensive glass hard, limit turnovers.

Overall I think this approach offers us the best chance of winning the game.

[FerryFor50]

I think running to get Meeks tired or " out of the game" would be a yuuuge mistake. They have a lot of players, and they live to run.
I think we'd be much better off attempting to limit their number of possessions as much as possible. Therefore, play a slower pace, hit the defensive glass hard, limit turnovers.

Overall I think this approach offers us the best chance of winning the game.

Agreed. For one, Meeks doesn't get as tired as he used to; he's in much better shape these days.

Two, Meeks isn't even really the main concern. Berry, Jackson and their team rebounding effort are a bigger deal IMO.

[Olympic Fan]

I know that ACC regular season standings are not the be-all, end-all of a season. The tournament decides the ACC Champion and NCAA success trumps everything.

Still, tonight's game will have HUGE impact on Duke's spot in the ACC standings.

Win and 7-4 Duke is essentially tied for fourth place -- one loss out of first place. The top of the standings will be:

Florida State -- three losses
Virginia -- three losses
UNC -- three losses
Duke -- four losses
Louisville -- four losses
Syracuse -- four losses

Lose and it gets much tougher:
UNC -- two losses
Florida State -- three losses
Virginia -- three losses
Louisville -- four losses
Syracuse -- four losses
Duke -- five losses
Notre Dame -- five losses
Miami -- five losses

So either tied for fourth and one game out of first or tied for sixth and THREE games out of first.

I know the win totals are different, but those games will be made up ... you can never make up a loss. Win tonight and a regular season title is still reasonably possible ... and a top four finish (to earn the double bye in the tournament) becomes very possible. Lose and the regular season title will essentially become a pipe dream and a top four finish will become very difficult.

So, go Devils ...

[Dukehky]

I think running to get Meeks tired or " out of the game" would be a yuuuge mistake. They have a lot of players, and they live to run.
I think we'd be much better off attempting to limit their number of possessions as much as possible. Therefore, play a slower pace, hit the defensive glass hard, limit turnovers.

Overall I think this approach offers us the best chance of winning the game.

Their efficiency in transition really isn't very good. They just have the aura of being really good at it. I mean, we should absolutely get back on defense, and we haven't shown a ton of ability to play in transition, but their ability to run and their "lots of players" aren't the reason.

Bradley and Pinson are their only two good bench players, Bradley is awesome and Pinson is at least good in theory. Now watch Nate Britt drop 20 tonight.

[Native]

In my opinion, Duke will have to keep UNC off the boards early and stay out of foul trouble in the post.

UNC will struggle to stop the dribble and if Duke is hitting their shots, it could be a long night for the heels.

Key matchup will be Tatum and Hicks. If Hicks gets in foul trouble, UNC will have to go small to guard him and UNC will lose their rebounding advantage.

As always, it will be fun, in a self hurt kind of way. :)

Pretty spot on. Agree that Hicks and Tatum will be the key matchup of the night. If Good Rebounder Jayson Tatum shows up and not Turnover Prone Jayson Tatum, Duke can win it. If not, Hicks could have a field day.

[left_hook_lacey]

Their efficiency in transition really isn't very good. They just have the aura of being really good at it. I mean, we should absolutely get back on defense, and we haven't shown a ton of ability to play in transition, but their ability to run and their "lots of players" aren't the reason.

Bradley and Pinson are their only two good bench players, Bradley is awesome and Pinson is at least good in theory. Now watch Nate Britt drop 20 tonight.

This.

UNC is still touted as "a team that likes to run" and "a team you have to get back on D against". They really haven't been that good at it the past few years because they just haven't had the type of guard that makes that game plan work. Marcus Paige couldn't do it, Berry can't really do it effectively. Sure, if you aren't paying attention or an ill-timed 3 clangs off the rim long they might push it, but that's the case for the majority of teams in college today.

I think over the past 3-4 years, UNC has shown less and less of a willingness to try to force the run out on every possession. I think a lot of that has to do with the inability to land a 5* blow your doors off PG like Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson, etc.

I think the commentators still say it because it was the UNC mantra for quite a few years and it sounds good on TV to build story lines. But to be honest, they are average, at best, in the current era.

The last few editions of UNC kind of remind me of my strategy of winning a tennis match. I'm not really great at any one thing, but I'm average at everything. So I just keep the ball in play and wait for the other person to beat themselves. I can win a lot of matches against people that aren't paying attention, but anyone with real talent and coaching will mop the floor with me once they realize I can't be very aggressive.

[kAzE]

Let's go Duke! Let's go Duke! Let's go Duke!! LET'S GO DUKE!!!

GTHC!!

[Wander]

Berry --- Allen
Jackson --- Kennard
Williams --- Jones
Hicks --- Tatum
Meeks --- Jefferson

Match them up that way and I like ours in at least 4 of 5, maybe all five. And as I said before, I like our bench better too.


I can't wait to see if next year, you octuple down on your "UNC is vastly overrated" claim in the preseason.

[ncexnyc]

A couple of years ago the talk was which freshman would shine during their first Duke vs UNC game. Would it be Winslow or would it be Jackson. Well early on we got our answer when Winslow snapped Jackson off at the ankles with a sick crossover. As we saw in that game, Winslow was on a whole different level than Jackson and Winslow took his game to the NBA, while Jackson still toils at UNC.

Going into tonight's game our freshmen are going to be asked that very same question and I'm most concerned about Jayson Tatum. Will he continue to play within himself, or will the moment be too much for him causing him to revert to his earlier play, which drew the ire of many on this forum.

I guess we'll find out in a few hours.

[Dukehky]

This.

UNC is still touted as "a team that likes to run" and "a team you have to get back on D against". They really haven't been that good at it the past few years because they just haven't had the type of guard that makes that game plan work. Marcus Paige couldn't do it, Berry can't really do it effectively. Sure, if you aren't paying attention or an ill-timed 3 clangs off the rim long they might push it, but that's the case for the majority of teams in college today.

I think over the past 3-4 years, UNC has shown less and less of a willingness to try to force the run out on every possession. I think a lot of that has to do with the inability to land a 5* blow your doors off PG like Raymond Felton, Ty Lawson, etc.

I think the commentators still say it because it was the UNC mantra for quite a few years and it sounds good on TV to build story lines. But to be honest, they are average, at best, in the current era.

The last few editions of UNC kind of remind me of my strategy of winning a tennis match. I'm not really great at any one thing, but I'm average at everything. So I just keep the ball in play and wait for the other person to beat themselves. I can win a lot of matches against people that aren't paying attention, but anyone with real talent and coaching will mop the floor with me once they realize I can't be very aggressive.



The thing that is actually scary about them this year compared to the last few years, as that they have some other elements to their offense than just throw it up on the rim and let Flex go get it. Jackson and Berry (Berry more so at the beginning of the year, he's been cold lately) can both score off the dribble and hit 3's. Really having to close out on those two guys makes it harder to box out the Donut Box and the kid from Oxford.

[Kedsy]

I can't wait to see if next year, you octuple down on your "UNC is vastly overrated" claim in the preseason.

Only if they're vastly overrated. ;)

[Ballboy1998]

A couple of years ago the talk was which freshman would shine during their first Duke vs UNC game. Would it be Winslow or would it be Jackson. Well early on we got our answer when Winslow snapped Jackson off at the ankles with a sick crossover. As we saw in that game, Winslow was on a whole different level than Jackson and Winslow took his game to the NBA, while Jackson still toils at UNC.

Going into tonight's game our freshmen are going to be asked that very same question and I'm most concerned about Jayson Tatum. Will he continue to play within himself, or will the moment be too much for him causing him to revert to his earlier play, which drew the ire of many on this forum.

I guess we'll find out in a few hours.

I agree that how the freshmen react to their first taste of the electricity that is the Duke/unc rivalry is always interesting to see. While this will be a whole different level, arguably the biggest stage for Jayson thus far this season was playing Florida at MSG where he had one of his best games of the season with 7-12 from the field, 8-8 from the line for 22 points (interestingly he didn't attempt a single 3), plus 8 rebounds, 2 A, 2 TO, 1 Blk, and 2 Stl.

To the extent I can venture a read on Jayson, it seems like the bigger challenges for him are maintaining focus and intensity every play (which I don't intend as a slight, as I think it is a natural growing pain for young players) and not the bright lights, so I am hoping he will play his biggest games on the biggest stages.

GTHC! GTH!

[TruBlu]

Not to get too embroiled in who has better depth...but if you don't play it, it really isn't depth. (I do like our bench guys more than their bench guys).
I can see for sure that our chances of winning each game NOW is maximized with the Iron Six playing small ball.
However, I see zero chance we win a title that way.

Hopefully Giles and Bolden begin to get more time (a total of what, seven minutes in the last game)?
I'm still hopeful...

I'll be stunned if we get thru tonight playing six guys almost exclusively (foul trouble)...

With the way the refs are calling fouls on us this year, I'll be stunned if we get through the first half playing six guys almost exclusively, especially when playing the cheaters.

GTHC, and GTH Swofford. (And if they don't get hammered for cheating, GTH NCAA.)

[billy]

Maybe. Have Harry and Marques been seemingly less than ready because they haven't played so much, or have they not played so much because they seemingly weren't ready? Coach K has often said that readiness comes from practice time, not necessarily from game time. I'm not prepared to say he's wrong.

Honest question - do we know that Harry's and Marques' minutes aren't limited by their injuries still? For instance, without looking at the actual data, it seems that Harry gets more play in the first half then seems to play little in the second. It could certainly be due to coaching decisions/matchups/etc. But it's also possible that at this point Harry has a 10-12 minute time limit, for example, imposed by his doctors.

[brumby041]

Please, for fans of all other college teams, please beat the mother living crap out of those Cheaters! They do not believe they did anything against the rules to funnel thousands and atheltes through classes that required no work, no class time, no effort at all.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/north-carolina-ad-lays-out-academic-fraud-defense-ncaa-overcharged-tar-heels/





The entire article is filled with bull poop like that from Cunningham. Where is the rest of the ACC in this? I swear, if you don't beat Carolina on Thursday, I'm gonna...I'm gonna...well I'm gonna go on some message boards and post how disappointed I am that truth, justice and the american way did not prevail and that cheaters do win.

Too late. SuperBowl was last Sunday. (and the cheaters won...)

[duke79]

IMHO, here is the best game plan for tonight: Make your free throws, limit your turnovers, no stupid fouls, wait for good shots, and play some D.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Just confirmed, to nobody's surprise, Pinson will play tonight.

[Devilwin]

I want the Georgia Tech factor to take over this game. They lose to Tech, we beat them by 53 or so. That would be so sweet..:cool:

[duketaylor]

Which officials we don't want? Mike Eades!
Who else? Luckily no L. Wertz or D. Papparo to worry about.

[wilson]

...Luckily no L. Wertz or D. Papparo to worry about.You suck, Richard.

[OldPhiKap]

No TV Teddy Valentine, please.

Lenny Wertz lived in Dean's jock. He was awful.

[madscavenger]

Just confirmed, to nobody's surprise, Pinson will play tonight.

No matter, ya still got Roy. And by the way, Roy knew.

[UNCfan]

Hicks is a game time decision, injured leg.

[Bob Green]

I'll be stunned if we get thru tonight playing six guys almost exclusively (foul trouble)...

We will know by half time. Coach K will use a couple of bench players, perhaps three, during the 1st half but in the 2nd half, barring serious foul trouble or an injury, Coach K is going to ride the Iron 6. That's the way he manages the rotation. He wants his best players playing the maximum number of minutes possible.

[Ballboy1998]

DukeMBB Duke vs. UNC Promo: https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/829820533084655617

[UNCfan]

Hicks will not play tonight due to a hamstring injury

[Ballboy1998]

Hicks will not play tonight due to a hamstring injury

Sorry to hear that -- as a tar heel fan, who do you expect to start in his stead?

[UNCfan]

Maye or Pinson. Pinson is my preference.

[Troublemaker]

Maye or Pinson. Pinson is my preference.

This is contrarian (I think?), but I would've preferred it if you guys had played 2 bigs the entire night.

I think a Pinson / Jackson SF/PF combo might be tough for Duke. It would give you guys more space for drives.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I'd say Roy starts Maye and sticks with the go inside game plan, especially since Pinson has missed so many practices and is just coming back.

Pinson will play plenty, tho.

Tough break for the Heels, but they are deep and prepared.

[UNCfan]

Maye will have 2 fouls before the tv timeout

[devildeac]

Hicks is a game time decision, injured leg.

He'll play, waaaaahmbulance or not. Oldest dean trick in the book. :rolleyes::p

[devildeac]

Maye will have 2 fouls before the tv timeout

And eades will have 3 on Amile in the shoot around :rolleyes: .

[Bob Green]

Maye or Pinson. Pinson is my preference.

I say Tony Bradley starts.

[UNCfan]

I say Tony Bradley starts.

Meeks and Bradley are the same position. Doubtful

[Skydog]

Just confirmed, to nobody's surprise, Pinson will play tonight.

Interesting season for Pinson so far. He has played only 6 games with 6-24 mins/gm but damn he has some stellar stats. I know these are anomalies b/c of the small sample but still:

Kenpom offensive rating: 149.3. Nationally #1 is 141.8 by a UNCW player named Cacok. Pinson just doesn't have nearly enough mins to be ranked.)
Season total assists 20, turnovers 2!
His rebounding is almost identical to Amile's (11% off, 23% def).
For a player with his stratospheric off effic rating Pinson doesn't shoot that well - 30% from 3, 64% from 2, 74% from FT. He just doesn't turn the ball over and wins possessions with his rebounds and steals.

His stats will normalize though - his off rating last season over 40 games was only 109.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I say Tony Bradley starts.

Roy generally subs Bradley for Meeks, so I doubt those two are on the court much at the same time.

Maye gives UNC a solid back up and he's a gamer, this is a time when Roy's well thought out recruiting by style/position pays dividends.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Interesting season for Pinson so far. He has played only 6 games with 6-24 mins/gm but damn he has some stellar stats. I know these are anomalies b/c of the small sample but still:

Kenpom offensive rating: 149.3. Nationally #1 is 141.8 by a UNCW player named Cacok. Pinson just doesn't have nearly enough mins to be ranked.)
Season total assists 20, turnovers 2!
His rebounding is almost identical to Amile's (11% off, 23% def).
For a player with his stratospheric off effic rating Pinson doesn't shoot that well - 30% from 3, 64% from 2, 74% from FT. He just doesn't turn the ball over and wins possessions with his rebounds and steals.

His stats will normalize though - his off rating last season over 40 games was only 109.

Pinson is a well rounded player with some athleticism. UNC is better when he can play.

Unfortunately injuries just haven't let us see how good he can be, so far.

[CDu]

Pinson is a well rounded player with some athleticism. UNC is better when he can play.

Unfortunately injuries just haven't let us see how good he can be, so far.

We don't always agree (to put it mildly). But I agree that Pinson is a terrific player. His versatility allows UNC more flexibility. If he could shoot? Well, if he could shoot he would probably already be in the NBA. But even without a jumpshot, he is a terrific player.

[gofurman]

Maybe. Have Harry and Marques been seemingly less than ready because they haven't played so much, or have they not played so much because they seemingly weren't ready? Coach K has often said that readiness comes from practice time, not necessarily from game time. I'm not prepared to say he's wrong.



This is a valid view, but I'm not so sure. I remember when Ryan Kelly got hurt in 2013, and freshman Amile Jefferson stepped in and took a good portion of Ryan's minutes and played well, despite having not played at all before that. I remember Coach K saying something at that time about "depth" meaning you have players who can step in when needed. Also, Grayson Allen in 2015, Casey Sanders in 2001, even Elliot Williams in 2009 (and I'm sure there are lots of other examples), all showed that a player can be part of a team's depth even if they don't play before the need for them arises.





I agree with Steven, but even taking the claim at face value, it doesn't make sense.

Berry --- Allen
Jackson --- Kennard
Williams --- Jones
Hicks --- Tatum
Meeks --- Jefferson

Match them up that way and I like ours in at least 4 of 5, maybe all five. And as I said before, I like our bench better too.

I guess it's an eye-of-the-beholder thing.

Did you like our matchups one v one vs nc state ? I would. That didn't work out. That type analysis can be undermined by any great player w a great night. Lehigh. NC State. Fast PGs

[CDu]

Suddenly, with Hicks out, any suggestions of depth advantages go away. UNC now has to go with either their best reserve Pinson (thus going small, playing very much to our advantage), Maye (a really good shooter but not a post presence and a liability against the more athletic Tatum), or Bradley (their only other inside presence, but probably not a good pairing with Meeks, and also a poor matchup on Tatum).

I guess they could go with Maye and try to hide him on Jones. But I think we would find a way to get him stuck on an island against Allen/Tatum/Kennard.

I would say that we now have either a clear advantage in the starters (if Maye or Bradley starts) or a clear edge in reserves (if Pinson starts).

[CDu]

Did you like our matchups one v one vs nc state ? I would. That didn't work out. That type analysis can be undermined by any great player w a great night. Lehigh. NC State. Fast PGs

Thankfully UNC doesn't play a fast PG. Berry is very good. But he is more smooth and strong than he is fast.

[Edouble]

Roy just now, being interviewed outside of the unc locker room: “Theo is just coming back, so we can’t play him a bunch of minutes.”

Translation: Pinson will play 28-30 minutes.