PDA

View Full Version : National Champion Conference Poll



richardjackson199
02-05-2017, 02:17 PM
From Which Conference Will This Year's National Champion Come?

CameronBornAndBred
02-05-2017, 02:22 PM
Since Duke is in the ACC, it's an easy vote. :cool:

richardjackson199
02-05-2017, 03:20 PM
I'll be cheering for Duke first, ABC/ABKy second, and ACC 3rd as always.

But in the end I expect great guard play paired with stud bigs to carry either UCLA, Oregon, or Arizona to cutting down the nets this year. As Troublemaker noted, a Final 4 in Glendale could also help.

ACC teams play the best defense. ACC probably has the most strong teams. But are they the best of the best?

Nova has what it takes to repeat. Is Gonzaga legit? (No.) SEC is stronger than usual. Big 12 has some juggernauts.

Who ya got? (Vote with your head, not your heart. We'd love nothing more than K winning his 6th with this team, but it could be a tall order this year.)

As always - the ultimate DBR bragging rights to the winners.

And yes, my vote curses Bill Walton's Conference of Champions.

Native
02-05-2017, 03:25 PM
But in the end I expect great guard play paired with stud bigs to carry either UCLA, Oregon, or Arizona to cutting down the nets this year. As Troublemaker noted, a Final 4 in Glendale could also help.

I can definitely see Oregon making a run at it. I think they would have been in the Final Four last year were it not for Buddy Hield.

DinoDuke
02-05-2017, 05:09 PM
That team from Durham that's not NCCU

brlftz
02-05-2017, 06:14 PM
I think the Big 12 has the best list of contenders - Baylor, Kansas, WVU > UCLA, Arizona, Oregon > Louisville, Virginia, UNC

I still hold out hope that we come closer to our potential by the end of the year, which would disrupt the situation completely. But as of today we aren't in the picture.

NSDukeFan
02-05-2017, 06:22 PM
I think the Big 12 has the best list of contenders - Baylor, Kansas, WVU > UCLA, Arizona, Oregon > Louisville, Virginia, UNC

I still hold out hope that we come closer to our potential by the end of the year, which would disrupt the situation completely. But as of today we aren't in the picture.

But will we be on Monday when the newest rankings come out or do we have to wait until Thursday to be considered in the picture?

brlftz
02-05-2017, 06:47 PM
But will we be on Monday when the newest rankings come out or do we have to wait until Thursday to be considered in the picture?

We'll know a lot more on Thursday imo. We are too potentially good to ever rule out though.

richardjackson199
02-05-2017, 10:18 PM
Duke isn't a favorite, but we are certainly a contender. Louisville looks like the most dangerous team in the ACC to me, especially when they get back to full strength. UNC, FSU, UVA, or even Syracuse or Notre Dame could win it all if the right folks get hot.

Kansas has the talent, but they also have serious distractions. Baylor could do it. I think WVU is overrated, but their press and aggression are well suited for a deep run in the tourney.

I think UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona are just monsters. These are the teams I'd least like to run into. Maybe wanting some payback against Oregon could give us some psychological edge. I think most likely one of these teams cuts down the nets.

The SEC could be a sleeper. Kentucky's guards are exactly what you want to win it all. Florida could absolutely win it with their depth and guards. South Carolina, under the radar, has sole possession of first in the conference.

Nova is the only Big East team good enough to win it all, but they're one of the top favorites to do so.

Is this Gonzaga's year? They'll likely get the tourney's top overall seed, and possibly a favorable path. They'll be highly motivated to make a Final 4. Then if they get there, they're 2 wins away from an undefeated season. They played no one, and aren't battle tested, but it could absolutely happen.

Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue are contenders. I don't see any of them in the Final 4, but history favors experienced players in the Dance.

Cincy is a tough. They're another under the radar team I'd hate to play in the tourney. They will be a tough out for anybody.

It's debatable, but I don't see any other contenders. Butler, St. Mary's, Creighton, Xavier, Northwestern, and SMU are not winning it all.

This tourney promises to be amazing with this many contenders. But for now, let's beat the cheats!

-bdbd
02-05-2017, 11:03 PM
It's simply a numbers game. I expect the ACC to have ten out of the 68 teams in the NCAAT. More than anyone else. And most of those CAN win it all... Duke, UVA, FSU, L'ville, UNC@CH, Irish, etc.

No dominant team this year, so that's why the numbers (of entrants) are so important. I like ACC's odds.

JNort
02-06-2017, 01:24 PM
Shouldn't the poll be "What conference is Duke in?" because it's the same end result.

richardjackson199
02-06-2017, 07:28 PM
It's interesting, but not at all surprising that out of 65 votes so far, no one has taken the #1 team in the country in both polls. 1 person has taken Villanova, the #2 team. I agree that part of this no doubt relates to the numbers game - picking a conference with more true contenders increases the probability of getting the winner. Gonzaga and Villanova are the only true contenders in their conferences.

But zero votes from this very well-informed audience suggests (to me anyway) that many on this board aren't yet convinced that Gonzaga is the nation's best team. So do they deserve to be treated as such with the nice reward of the tourney's #1 overall seed? I don't think so. They're being rewarded too much IMO for playing an uber-soft schedule (relative to their peers). Gonzaga has a 5 point win over Florida (November, neutral floor - Orlando isn't Gainesville); a 7 point win over Arizona (without Alonzo Trier, Dec. 3, neutral floor); a 2 point win over Iowa St. (November, neutral floor); and a home blowout of Saint Mary's. If they can beat Saint Mary's on the road and continue to win games against a cupcake conference, they'll waltz into the tourney's #1 overall seed.

I'm sorry, but I believe Duke or virtually any of the contenders on this list would earn the same #1 overall seed with that schedule. They would certainly have a much easier time doing so than going through a power conference schedule like the ACC in addition to a tougher non-conference schedule than Gonzaga had. Duke beat Florida more impressively on a neutral court. Arizona on a neutral court is a nice win. But is this resume really deserving of the #1 overall seed?

I've heard numerous talking heads talk about how legit Gonzaga is, and how "you are what your record says you are so they deserve it." Maybe they are that good - but I've seen nothing from that resume to suggest it. They certainly don't inspire awe of previous undefeateds like UNLV 91 or Kentucky 2015. The crazy thing is Gonzaga may still get a 1 seed if they lose at St. Mary's. In terms of what they've earned with their resume, I'd vote to make them a 3 seed on principle if I was on the selection committee even if they were undefeated.

Yes they'll still have to win 6 in a row to prove it. But a #1 seed is a nice head start. You obviously avoid any other #1's until the Final 4 at the earliest (giving them more time to get upset). You avoid all other #2's and #3's until the Elite 8 at the earliest, playing only one there.

I like Mark Few. But I'll be cheering for the #16 Gonzaga draws to pull the unprecedented upset.

Wander
02-06-2017, 07:39 PM
But zero votes from this very well-informed audience suggests (to me anyway) that many on this board aren't yet convinced that Gonzaga is the nation's best team.

I think you're reading something that isn't necessarily there. According to Vegas, out of the 15 teams most likely to win the national title, there are:

5 ACC teams
3 Pac-12 teams
3 Big 12 teams
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Villanova

So the way you phrased the question, it's hard to argue voting for anyone other than the ACC, Pac 12, or Big 12.

richardjackson199
02-06-2017, 07:58 PM
I think you're reading something that isn't necessarily there. According to Vegas, out of the 15 teams most likely to win the national title, there are:

5 ACC teams
3 Pac-12 teams
3 Big 12 teams
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Villanova

So the way you phrased the question, it's hard to argue voting for anyone other than the ACC, Pac 12, or Big 12.

You're right - I worded that part poorly. I can't make that assumption from the poll votes.

Do others think that most of these 15 contenders (like us) would also be much more likely to get a #1 seed by playing Gonzaga's schedule? Or what would Gonzaga's seed be if they played Duke's schedule? Or Kentucky's? Or that of any of the other contenders?

I just think the committee is in the tough position of comparing apples to oranges with these resumes. The end result is that absolute wins and losses get valued too highly while strength of schedule doesn't get the weight it deserves in seeding.

Troublemaker
02-06-2017, 08:05 PM
I like Mark Few. But I'll be cheering for the #16 Gonzaga draws to pull the unprecedented upset.

Why, haha? It sounds like you might not like Mark Few THAT much. I wouldn't wish that outcome on anyone except UNC.

Wander
02-06-2017, 08:07 PM
You're right - I worded that part poorly. I can't make that assumption from the poll votes.

Do others think that most of these 15 contenders (like us) would also be much more likely to get a #1 seed by playing Gonzaga's schedule? Or what would Gonzaga's seed be if they played Duke's schedule? Or Kentucky's? Or that of any of the other contenders?

I just think the committee is in the tough position of comparing apples to oranges with these resumes. The end result is that absolute wins and losses get valued too highly while strength of schedule doesn't get the weight it deserves in seeding.

My take is that there are a bunch of teams that are in contention for 1 seeds that are about equal to each other. I don't think Gonzaga is clearly the #1 team or is on a level above everyone else, but I think they're definitely in that top group and are deserving of a 1 seed if they win out.

Gonzaga has definitely been better than Duke this year, and would likely have a better record than we do if they played our schedule (note Gonzaga's non-conference schedule is ranked higher than ours). We can be better than Gonzaga at the end of the season if things go well, but we are not there yet.

richardjackson199
02-06-2017, 08:09 PM
Why, haha? It sounds like you might not like Mark Few THAT much. I wouldn't wish that outcome on anyone except UNC.

You got me there. I'm wishing the 16 over 1 upset only on UNC or Kentucky. Mark Few can keep winning until he faces us in the Elite 8, again.

Clearly I'm just irritated that Gonzaga imo kind of gamed the system with their weak overall schedule. I'd kind of like to see the lack of battle testing come back to bite them in the Big Dance.

Yes Gonzaga's nonconference schedule is a little tougher than ours. But Duke more than makes up for it with our conference schedule compared to theirs. We lost a home game we should have won to NC State. We probably won't deserve a 1 seed, and Gonzaga has taken care of their business. I just think their road to a #1 seed was easier than their peer contenders.

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 06:08 AM
For another example of the rewarded for weak schedule/conference effect, look at Saint Mary's. Who have they beaten? Who have they even played? Seriously.

Saint Mary's resume boasts a 23 point loss to Gonzaga and a 14 point home loss to UT-Arlington. Yet they are ranked 20th in both polls, 1-2 spots behind us. They are ranked ahead of Butler who has beaten Villanova, Northwestern, Arizona, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Xavier among other decent teams. Saint Mary's has no worries getting into the dance, even after Gonzaga beats them again. Yet Pitt, who may be a better team than Saint Mary's, can forget the NCAAT and would be lucky to make the NIT at this point. That is due in large part to Pitt playing an ACC schedule. What would Pitt's record and ranking be with Saint Mary's schedule?

Saint Mary's isn't a National Champion contender of course, but they just underscore how a weak schedule can overinflate rankings and eventually NCAAT seeding. If they hadn't laid an egg against UT-Arlington, what would their current ranking be?

Who you play and where you play them matters immensely.

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 07:36 AM
Seeing Saint Mary's schedule makes me even less impressed with Gonzaga. Gonzaga's signature victories will likely be 2 neutral court wins over Florida and Arizona, the most recent of which was Dec. 3. Their other signature wins will be Saint Mary's and Saint Mary's (who may or may not be as good as Pitt, the team in sole possession of dead last in the ACC).

Gonzaga is a very good team and is probably legit. I just don't think they will have earned the prize for the nation's best regular season team - the #1 overall seed in the NCAAT. But they're going to get it.

Rant over. :p We're going to beat them, the heels, and the bulldogs they rode in on.

brevity
02-07-2017, 07:40 AM
The OP's bizarre anti-Gonzaga rant made me vote for the West Coast Conference.

It's bad strategy because I'm basically pinning all hopes on a single team. (I think St. Mary's will eventually consider their season wildly successful if they make the Sweet 16.) I don't know if Gonzaga is good enough to play to their likely #1 seed, but I could say that about a few Duke teams over the years. There is an apples to oranges comparison, but an undefeated team makes the call really easy.

Two more thoughts:

1. I don't think Gonzaga gets the #1 overall seed unless every other option is really weak.
2. I think Gonzaga moves off the 1 line entirely if they lose before Selection Sunday.

Troublemaker
02-07-2017, 08:32 AM
Clearly I'm just irritated that Gonzaga imo kind of gamed the system with their weak overall schedule. I'd kind of like to see the lack of battle testing come back to bite them in the Big Dance.

Yes Gonzaga's nonconference schedule is a little tougher than ours. But Duke more than makes up for it with our conference schedule compared to theirs. We lost a home game we should have won to NC State. We probably won't deserve a 1 seed, and Gonzaga has taken care of their business. I just think their road to a #1 seed was easier than their peer contenders.

There is probably some general truth to that as far as Gonzaga teams over the years, but I can't complain about this specific Gonzaga team getting a 1 seed.

Here's the deal. The Zags have played outstanding basketball. Gonzaga is now the #1 ranked team in the vast majority of computer polls (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm). Including the most cited (respected?) in KenPom, where they are #1 by a decent margin and top 5 in both offense and defense.

There are words to describe an undefeated team that played a good non-conf schedule and is atop the computer polls. Those words are: "1 seed."


You got me there. I'm wishing the 16 over 1 upset only on UNC or Kentucky. Mark Few can keep winning until he faces us in the Elite 8, again.

I am not rooting at all to be a 2 or 3 seed out West. Slide us in as a 2 or 3 seed in the East, please. I'm still holding out hope for the Greenville --> Garden (MSG) --> Glendale path to the FF.

Go out West? Yuck.

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 08:46 AM
There is probably some general truth to that as far as Gonzaga teams over the years, but I can't complain about this specific Gonzaga team getting a 1 seed.

Here's the deal. The Zags have played outstanding basketball. Gonzaga is now the #1 ranked team in the vast majority of computer polls (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm). Including the most cited (respected?) in KenPom, where they are #1 by a decent margin and top 5 in both offense and defense.

There are words to describe an undefeated team that played a good non-conf schedule and is #1 in the computer polls. Those words are: "1 seed."

I agree with you and Wander that Gonzaga is a legit contender for the Natty. As far as I know they are as good as any of the other contenders.

My opinion is that the 1 seeds should go to the teams who earn them by playing and doing the best with a tough schedule, which includes true road games against great teams.

I would compare the four 1 seeds to the 4 teams chosen for the college football playoff. They're usually considering power conference schools (or a team like Notre Dame) who earn it with the best performance against a tough schedule. Even a good, undefeated weak conference team with a weak overall schedule would have a difficult time being chosen for the playoff.

I respect those who disagree (including computers who disagree). :) The great thing about the NCAAT is that over 6 games, the National Champion will have earned it. I think being battle tested by a tough conference schedule will pay off. But if Gonzaga wins it all - my hats off to them. At that point I'll have to admit they earned it.

OldPhiKap
02-07-2017, 08:58 AM
I am not rooting at all to be a 2 or 3 seed out West. Slide us in as a 2 or 3 seed in the East, please. I'm still holding out hope for the Greenville --> Garden (MSG) --> Glendale path to the FF.

Go out West? Yuck.

Agree with this completely. Cannot worry about the match-ups, give me favorable regions. (although the first two rounds are still using the pod system, right? We may get stuck in the same building as UNC yet again -- which really sucks because it's not really a home court advantage for us).

Troublemaker
02-07-2017, 09:59 AM
I would compare the four 1 seeds to the 4 teams chosen for the college football playoff. They're usually considering power conference schools (or a team like Notre Dame) who earn it with the best performance against a tough schedule. Even a good, undefeated weak conference team with a weak overall schedule would have a difficult time being chosen for the playoff.

College basketball has a remedy for that as well, insofar as it's not JUST W-L record that gets you a 1 seed. For example, in 2012, Murray St entered the NCAA tournament with a 30-1 record and only got a 6 seed. The difference is that Murray St came out of a conference that was ranked in the bottom third that year. The WCC? It's roughly the 11th best conference out of 32 (kenpom).

I don't know that much about college football, but would the Mountain West be a similar conference profile? Roughly same geography; some MWC schools were former WCC schools. So, if Boise St (MWC school) won their key non-conference matchup(s), went undefeated, and destroyed the MWC so badly that the computers had them ranked #1? Would Boise St get into the playoff? I think they'd have a solid chance, right? But again, I'm not as familiar with college fball.



My opinion is that the 1 seeds should go to the teams who earn them by playing and doing the best with a tough schedule, which includes true road games against great teams.

I disagree here. I think we need to allow teams like Gonzaga to have a chance at a 1 seed if they perform exceptionally well.

Kfanarmy
02-07-2017, 10:24 AM
...I don't know that much about college football, but would the Mountain West be a similar conference profile? Roughly same geography; some MWC schools were former WCC schools. So, if Boise St (MWC school) won their key non-conference matchup(s), went undefeated, and destroyed the MWC so badly that the computers had them ranked #1? Would Boise St get into the playoff? I think they'd have a solid chance, right? But again, I'm not as familiar with college fball.
...

No. The top five conferences, with a big assist from east coast/SEC bias, have engineered the college football system too well. If the best SEC team had three losses, a significant population would still be demanding a playoff spot for them. The 68 team format for the College BBall NCAA tourney at least provides a road for the small guy to get to the championship. The powers in College football have fought that tooth and nail to prevent that.

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 10:51 AM
...

I disagree here. I think we need to allow teams like Gonzaga to have a chance at a 1 seed if they perform exceptionally well.

I agree with you that teams like Gonzaga should have a chance at a 1 seed if they perform exceptionally well. As Wander noted, Gonzaga has a tougher non-conference schedule than us. But not by much.

I think that to earn a 1 seed, a team with such a weak conference schedule should play a much tougher non-conference schedule to compensate. Gonzaga could do that and schedule more tougher games than what they did. If they had to do that to get a 1 seed, maybe they would. Kentucky, for example, has a very impressive non-conference schedule this year (as well as a reasonably tough conference schedule compared to Gonzaga).

That said - I recognize the system in place is pretty good, and isn't perfect. (And maybe I'm wrong.) I love the NCAA Tourney, because everybody has a chance. March Madness is the greatest time of the year because it's an incredible system that works itself out.

vick
02-07-2017, 11:04 AM
My opinion is that the 1 seeds should go to the teams who earn them by playing and doing the best with a tough schedule, which includes true road games against great teams.

I don't totally disagree here, but I would bet Gonzaga would be perfectly happy to play a home-and-home series with, say, Duke. It's a little silly for Duke fans to rag on mid-majors for not scheduling tough nonconference road games when we basically refuse to schedule those series ourselves (nor am I saying we have an obligation to--we're not running a charity here--but the facts are what they are).

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 11:51 AM
I don't totally disagree here, but I would bet Gonzaga would be perfectly happy to play a home-and-home series with, say, Duke. It's a little silly for Duke fans to rag on mid-majors for not scheduling tough nonconference road games when we basically refuse to schedule those series ourselves (nor am I saying we have an obligation to--we're not running a charity here--but the facts are what they are).

It's a good point. My guess is that Duke avoids scheduling true road games (other than ACC/Big-10 Challenge which they pretty much have to do) because they appreciate that true homecourt advantage (especially against blue-bloods like Duke) is a big deal. If true road games equate to more losses, and more losses are more emphasized in seeding than difficulty of schedule, then it makes no sense to seek more true road games when you play in a tough conference like the ACC. You'll get enough tough true road games in conference. Teams like Duke are often willing to play neutral sites, though. And some tough teams will still schedule home and homes.

I think teams would find a way to play a tougher nonconference schedule if there was more incentive to do so. With the current system, the incentive seems to be skewed a bit more toward the opposite. That is why a pretty good team like Pitt is penalized for a tough overall schedule. While a pretty good team like Saint Mary's is rewarded for an easy one. Or a very good team like Gonzaga is also rewarded with an easier schedule, than say an ACC team.

If seedings were made today - I'd guess no ACC team would be a #1 seed due to too many losses. (I'd expect Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, and Oregon). Yet I think some of us agree that the best team in the best overall conference should get a #1 seed. It's not a big deal - I just thought it was an interesting discussion point.

rasputin
02-07-2017, 11:59 AM
It's a good point. My guess is that Duke avoids scheduling true road games (other than ACC/Big-10 Challenge which they pretty much have to do) because they appreciate that true homecourt advantage (especially against blue-bloods like Duke) is a big deal. If true road games equate to more losses, and more losses are more emphasized in seeding than difficulty of schedule, then it makes no sense to seek more true road games when you play in a tough conference like the ACC. You'll get enough tough true road games in conference. Teams like Duke are often willing to play neutral sites, though. And some tough teams will still schedule home and homes.

I think teams would find a way to play a tougher nonconference schedule if there was more incentive to do so. With the current system, the incentive seems to be skewed a bit more toward the opposite. That is why a pretty good team like Pitt is penalized for a tough overall schedule. While a pretty good team like Saint Mary's is rewarded for an easy one. Or a very good team like Gonzaga is also rewarded with an easier schedule, than say an ACC team.

If seedings were made today - I'd guess no ACC team would be a #1 seed due to too many losses. (I'd expect Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, and Oregon). Yet I think some of us agree that the best team in the best overall conference should get a #1 seed. It's not a big deal - I just thought it was an interesting discussion point.

Regarding "true" road games, the haters say that, for example, our game in Las Vegas was on a "neutral" court.

TexHawk
02-07-2017, 01:20 PM
Saint Mary's has no worries getting into the dance, even after Gonzaga beats them again.

I'd say that's a stretch. Last season, St Mary's was just about the same team. They had a couple more losses, but they had better wins. They were on the fringe of the Top 25 all year (made it to #24 before losing to Gonzaga in the conference championship game). They had 4 losses at the end of their regular season, two to strong(ish) opponents Cal and BYU that each had 20+ wins. They beat Gonzaga twice, who ended up with 28 wins and a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament. That St Mary's team missed out on an at-large bid, and their NCSOS (by KP) was about 100 spots BETTER than this version.

If they lose to Gonzaga, the best they can do is enter the conference tourney at 26-3, with another loss coming (likely). I'd say they are in the NCAAT as of Feb 7 because the bubble looks pretty soft, but they better not slip up against BYU or other non-Gonzaga team in the next month.

TexHawk
02-07-2017, 02:02 PM
It's a good point. My guess is that Duke avoids scheduling true road games (other than ACC/Big-10 Challenge which they pretty much have to do) because they appreciate that true homecourt advantage (especially against blue-bloods like Duke) is a big deal. If true road games equate to more losses, and more losses are more emphasized in seeding than difficulty of schedule, then it makes no sense to seek more true road games when you play in a tough conference like the ACC. You'll get enough tough true road games in conference. Teams like Duke are often willing to play neutral sites, though. And some tough teams will still schedule home and homes.

I think teams would find a way to play a tougher nonconference schedule if there was more incentive to do so. With the current system, the incentive seems to be skewed a bit more toward the opposite. That is why a pretty good team like Pitt is penalized for a tough overall schedule. While a pretty good team like Saint Mary's is rewarded for an easy one. Or a very good team like Gonzaga is also rewarded with an easier schedule, than say an ACC team.


Opposing fans who rip on noncon road schedules is one of my favorite litmus tests for adulthood. A basketball (and to a similar extent football) schedule is exceedingly complex to manage.

You generally only have 12-13 games to work with. Take out a few for the Champions Classic, conference challenges, a rotating Hawaii/Bahamas/etc, a small local "tournament"... You are now down to 8 or so.
You can't schedule eight top 10 opponents, even if you wanted to. Every school is dealing with the same constraints. On the rare occassion that you find a match, you usually have to sign the contract 2-3+ years in advance, the only time you know your slate will be clear. And 2-3 years is a lifetime with some of these teams.
For the strong power conference schools, a home-and-home with a non-power school is a lose-lose all around. Win, and you were supposed to. Lose, it hurts your resume. Gonzaga is probably clear of this stigma by now, but it took them 20 years.
For the schools that recruit nationally, many coaches will try to schedule a road game near a player's hometown. Sometimes this matches up with a solid road opponent so you can kill two birds, but that's not guaranteed.
You need to build a strong team, which is the point of this sport. Scheduling is an art. You need to give a young team confidence, you need to challenge experienced teams with different environments, you need to figure out rotations and roles. A perfect opponent is a not-terrible smaller conference team that is likely an "easy win". Unfortunately, those schools don't grow on trees.
Oh yea, your noncon schedule is played in November/December, where your players are supposed to be studying for and taking finals.

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 05:22 PM
Opposing fans who rip on noncon road schedules is one of my favorite litmus tests for adulthood. A basketball (and to a similar extent football) schedule is exceedingly complex to manage.




Thank goodness I passed the litmus test. Sounds like I came out Duke blue! Not surprising, I've always been a basic kinda guy. Adulthood is vastly overrated.

I'll try to keep any more puerile opinions of what should justify a #1 seed amongst my juvenile circles. :p

TexHawk
02-07-2017, 05:26 PM
Thank goodness I passed the litmus test. Sounds like I came out Duke blue! Not surprising, I've always been a bit of a base head. Adulthood is vastly overrated.

I'll try to keep any more puerile opinions of what should justify a #1 seed amongst my juvenile circles. :p

Ha... That reads poorly, apologies.

Meant it more in the sense of "Duke/Kansas/Kentucky/<insert rival here> never play on the road in the nonconference because they are scared", something I hear way too much of in my neck of the woods.

DukeTrinity11
02-07-2017, 05:38 PM
Thank goodness I passed the litmus test. Sounds like I came out Duke blue! Not surprising, I've always been a basic kinda guy. Adulthood is vastly overrated.

I'll try to keep any more puerile opinions of what should justify a #1 seed amongst my juvenile circles. :p
I won't rip you on your analysis of what constitutes a #1 seed but you're dead wrong about Gonzaga. They're the best team in the country based on my eye test and all the computer ratings back up the assertion that they are a legitimate #1 seed candidate.

Gonzaga
KenPom: #1 (#4 Offense, #4 Defense)
Sagarin: #1 (3-0 vs. Top 25, 5-0 vs. Top 50)
Massey Composite: #1
RPI: #8
BPI: #8

richardjackson199
02-07-2017, 06:06 PM
I won't rip you on your analysis of what constitutes a #1 seed but you're dead wrong about Gonzaga. They're the best team in the country based on my eye test and all the computer ratings back up the assertion that they are a legitimate #1 seed candidate.

Gonzaga
KenPom: #1 (#4 Offense, #4 Defense)
Sagarin: #1 (3-0 vs. Top 25, 5-0 vs. Top 50)
Massey Composite: #1
RPI: #8
BPI: #8

Maybe. Maybe not. I've been dead wrong before. I owe the Degeneracy thread winner a 6-pack and probably Troublemaker another 12-pack after Kentucky finishes blowing any chance they had at a 1 seed (well worth it when they lose). That leaves 6 beers left in the case, 3 after devildeac's consult fee. So I'm done with beer bets this year - no more.

I'll take one PAC-12 team to keep it fair. When your Zags outperform Oregon in the tourney, I'll admit defeat and say congrats (and finish off that case!). But until then, we'll start warming up that DBR crow - medium rare. We shall see. :cool:

devildeac
02-07-2017, 07:17 PM
Maybe. Maybe not. I've been dead wrong before. I owe the Degeneracy thread winner a 6-pack and probably Troublemaker another 12-pack after Kentucky finishes blowing any chance they had at a 1 seed (well worth it when they lose). That leaves 6 beers left in the case, 3 after devildeac's consult fee. So I'm done with beer bets this year - no more.

I'll take one PAC-12 team to keep it fair. When your Zags outperform Oregon in the tourney, I'll admit defeat and say congrats (and finish off that case!). But until then, we'll start warming up that DBR crow - medium rare. We shall see. :cool:


Man, I'm liking these discussions more and more all the time. ;)

Indoor66
02-08-2017, 08:15 AM
A serious question: aren't the metrics that many rely on derived from the results from the games played against the weak schedule? If so, how do they serve to bootstrap the performances upward?

vick
02-08-2017, 01:32 PM
A serious question: aren't the metrics that many rely on derived from the results from the games played against the weak schedule? If so, how do they serve to bootstrap the performances upward?

Margin of victory. Note that RPI (which has Gonzaga #8) doesn't consider margin, whereas Sagarin and Kenpom (which have them #1) only care about margin, not records.

Troublemaker
03-20-2017, 08:18 AM
I feel good about picking the Pac-12. 3 major contenders still alive, all in separate regions. The Big-12 is in the same position, though.

elvis14
03-20-2017, 11:40 AM
Wow, with all the legitimate ACC teams out in the first weekend, 75% of us were wrong. It's going to be interesting to see which conference wins it.

devildeac
03-20-2017, 01:22 PM
Wow, with all the legitimate ACC teams out in the first weekend, 75% of us were wrong. It's going to be interesting to see which conference wins it.


Let us hope all those who selected an acc team are 100% wrong sometime next weekend. :mad:

Native
03-20-2017, 08:18 PM
I feel good about picking the Pac-12. 3 major contenders still alive, all in separate regions.

Another reason to like the Zags + Pac-12: if any of them get to the F4 they have the travel advantage in going to Phoenix over just about anybody else.

I will say: I attended the first-round site at Barclays last season where Villanova played their first- and second-round games. It was clear that they were a championship-caliber team. I see a lot of the same in Gonzaga.

elvis14
03-21-2017, 02:52 PM
Let us hope all those who selected an acc team are 100% wrong sometime next weekend. :mad:

Really ABC is really all that matters from this point on. I don't care who else wins (even Ky and Calasleazy) as long as it's not the Cheaters.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-21-2017, 04:58 PM
Wow, with all the legitimate ACC teams out in the first weekend, 75% of us were wrong. It's going to be interesting to see which conference wins it.

I am still holding out for a Lego Batman to come along and rearrange the entire paradigm.

Troublemaker
04-02-2017, 12:01 AM
Need brevity and DukeTrinity11 to win.

richardjackson199
04-02-2017, 11:28 AM
Maybe. Maybe not. I've been dead wrong before. I owe the Degeneracy thread winner a 6-pack and probably Troublemaker another 12-pack after Kentucky finishes blowing any chance they had at a 1 seed (well worth it when they lose). That leaves 6 beers left in the case, 3 after devildeac's consult fee. So I'm done with beer bets this year - no more.

I'll take one PAC-12 team to keep it fair. When your Zags outperform Oregon in the tourney, I'll admit defeat and say congrats (and finish off that case!). But until then, we'll start warming up that DBR crow - medium rare. We shall see. :cool:

Congrats DukeTrinity11. Gonzaga outperformed Oregon.

When I made that prediction Boucher was healthy, and I'd like to think he could have been worth 2 points last night. But it is what it is.

Gonzaga is legit. I was wrong.

At least I hope they are. I just became the world's biggest Gonzaga fan.

devildeac
04-02-2017, 01:58 PM
Congrats DukeTrinity11. Gonzaga outperformed Oregon.

When I made that prediction Boucher was healthy, and I'd like to think he could have been worth 2 points last night. But it is what it is.

Gonzaga is legit. I was wrong.

At least I hope they are. I just became the world's biggest Gonzaga fan.


More importantly, did you lose any money/beer over it? :rolleyes:;)

richardjackson199
04-02-2017, 05:59 PM
More importantly, did you lose any money/beer over it? :rolleyes:;)

Nope. :cool:

NSDukeFan
04-02-2017, 09:03 PM
More importantly, did you lose any money/beer over it? :rolleyes:;)


Nope. :cool:

But there was some crow and bragging rights.

richardjackson199
04-02-2017, 09:16 PM
But there was some crow and bragging rights.

True,
I'm eating this crow and crispy duck. Plenty of beer left over from the other bets I lost to wash it down.

Tomorrow night I'm hoping to have lamb shanks.