MBB: Pitt Pre- and In-Game thread [Sat., 2/4, 1pm, CBS]

[Saratoga2]

Pitt was absolutely blown out by Louisville last out and has to play UNC today so will likely to smarting coming into Cameron. I haven't seen them play but will try to catch the game today. Looking at their statistics indicates the players who log major minutes are as follows:

Jamel Artis a 6'7" 210# forward who is good from the 3 point line
Michael Young an experienced and dangerous 6'9" 235# F who we probably all have seen play
Cameron Johnson a 6'8" 210# G
Shelden Jeter a 6'8" 230# G
Chris Jones a 6'6" 215# G
Ryan Luther a 6'9" 225 # F who is also good from the 3 point line

Clearly this is a big team and has many upper classmen starting. How they got doubled up by Louisville is a mystery to me. Will watch later and try to understand their strengths and weaknesses.

[Henderson]

Clearly this is a big team and has many upper classmen starting.

How I wish that being big and experienced was all it took to be good at basketball.

[BandAlum83]

Go Duke!!!

[CDu]

I'll expand a bit on Saratoga2's post here. Pitt is a BIG team. Not tall, but BIG. They believe in the Buzz Williams concept of interchangeable parts on the floor. Their bigs are smaller, their smalls are bigger. The problem is that their smalls aren't very good. Which has led to an awful record in conference this year. They also have essentially no bench, and ride their starters REALLY hard. They started the season off okay, with a 1-point loss to Notre Dame and a double-digit win over UVa. Since then? All losses, including massive blowouts to Syracuse and Miami.

Frontcourt: Michael Young (6'9", 235lb senior) is the man in the middle for them. He has improved each year in college, and this year is an absolute stud. He averages 20 and 7 and even 3 assists. Young has gotten better in large part because his shooting has improved. He has added a 3pt shot (37.5% on ~4 shots per game) to his good scoring skill set closer to the basket. Young will be a handful. Tough assignment for Jefferson. The other primary big is Sheldon Jeter (6'8", 230lb senior transfer). Jeter is the guy who transferred from Vanderbilt to get away from Kevin Stallings, only to wind up with the same coach in Pitt a few years later. Jeter is a lesser version of Young: strong rebounder, capable perimeter shooter. He's just not as effective as Young as an inside scorer. The third big was Ryan Luther (6'9", 225lb junior). Luther is a high-energy, strong kid who also isn't afraid to step outside now and again (40+% career 3pt shooter). Unfortunately for them, he suffered a foot injury and has been out for the past few weeks and may not play against us. Which makes an already- shallow depth-chart even more shallow. In a pinch, Pitt will occasionally throw in Nix (6'11", 300lb frosh) and/or Manigault (6'8", 230lb frosh). But they are just minutes-filler. Nix is a ferocious rebounder and foul machine but nothing else. Manigault is nondescript.

Wings: Jamel Artis (6'7", 215lb senior) is the front man here. Artis averages 21 ppg, 5 rpg, and 3 apg. He is an extremely versatile wing who can post up or shoot the 3 (44% this year from 3 on over 6 attempts). I'd expect the Devils to try to keep Jones on Artis as much as humanly possible. Alongside Artis is Chris Jones (6'6", 215lb senior). Jones is a hard-nosed, tough, defensive-minded player who doesn't shoot well (or often). He will likely have the job of mugging Kennard and/or Allen. Additionally, Cameron Johnson (6'8", 210lb redshirt soph) starts. Johnson is a lanky shooter who can spread the floor and scores pretty efficiently. Damon Wilson (6'5", 195lb soph) is the nondescript, minutes-filler here.

Smalls: The starting lineup is typically Young, Jeter, Artis, Johnson, and Jones. You'll notice the lack of a true guard in that list. Pitt's best five are 2 bigs, a combo forward, and two wings. And they don't exactly bring a lot of lumber off the bench at PG. They really miss James Robinson, who graduated last year. Justice Kithcart (6'1", 185lb frosh) is the nominal backup PG. He's quick with good dribbling skills, but small and an awful shooter. Milligan (6'2", 170lb soph) is the other small guard. He's a pure shooter though, and not a point.

Despite the lack of a point guard, Pitt hasn't been awful offensively. They are #48 in offensive efficiency, or comparable to NC State. Where they have really suffered is on defense, where they are #182. They also play at a very slow pace #245, and look to muck the games up.

This is a game that should (emphasis on "should") play right into our hands. Their two best players play the positions that our two best defenders play. They don't have explosive guards that can beat us off the dribble. We really need to build off of our stellar win at Notre Dame and handle Pitt.

[UrinalCake]

I believe Artis and Young are the two leading scorers in the conference, or at least both near the top. We could really use our bigs defending without fouling (and here I am looking at you Harry Giles).

[CDu]

I believe Artis and Young are the two leading scorers in the conference, or at least both near the top. We could really use our bigs defending without fouling (and here I am looking at you Harry Giles).

I think Jefferson will spend the majority of the time on Young. And I think Jones and Tatum will do the heavy lifting guarding Artis. I think we'll try to avoid exposing Giles (or Bolden or Vrankovic) to either of those guys unless the starters run into foul trouble.

There will certainly be stretches where our backups wind up on those guys. But I think the plan will be to limit those stretches to few and far between.

[Olympic Fan]

Having seen Pitt several times, I'd comment:

-- Young is a pro forward, at least offensively. He can almost always get his shot and he is equally effective inside and outside. But he's been a bit off since breaking his nose against Miami. He's been wearing a plastic mask and it appears to bother him.

-- I also love Artis, although Stallings' attempt to make him a point guard has not really worked. But Artis is also an explosive scorer who is a great shooter and a strong driver. Over 50 percent from the field and 43.9 from 3 point range. His ACC numbers are a lot like Kennard's.

-- Cameron Johnson is a poor man's Andre Dawkins. When he's hot, he can be unstoppable and when he's cold, he is almost useless. They call him a guard, but AD was a better ballhandler.

-- I loved Luther and thought one of the biggest mistakes Stallings made early was not giving him enough minutes. He'll miss his fifth straight game tonight with his foot injury. Without him, they have zero on their bench.

[Rich]

Do we unveil our biggest advantage in this game -- the K?

[CDu]

Do we unveil our biggest strength in this game -- the K?

It will be the first home game (actually the first game, period) after the 4-week mark following surgery. It'd be great to see him back for this one in advance of the game against UNC.

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

This is a game that should (emphasis on "should") play right into our hands. Their two best players play the positions that our two best defenders play. They don't have explosive guards that can beat us off the dribble. We really need to build off of our stellar win at Notre Dame and handle Pitt.

Great write up, thanks!

I agree this sounds like a team we match up really well against.

- Chillin

[duke4ever19]

Well, Pitt can play with the top teams of the conference, Louisville not withstanding. That's evident after tonight.

[Troublemaker]

Well, Pitt can play with the top teams of the conference, Louisville not withstanding. That's evident after tonight.

If it doesn't happen tonight, Duke's going to be ranked ahead of UNC in KenPom by the end of Saturday. (Not that it matters.)

[Saratoga2]

If it doesn't happen tonight, Duke's going to be ranked ahead of UNC in KenPom by the end of Saturday. (Not that it matters.)

The Pitt team was well covered earlier so I wont way more only to mention that they put a scare into UNC and only lost by 2. They will be dangerous to us but we should handle them at home.

[Billy Dat]

The Pitt team was well covered earlier so I wont way more only to mention that they put a scare into UNC and only lost by 2. They will be dangerous to us but we should handle them at home.

I haven't delved much into searching out advanced stats for Men's College BBall aside from KenPom's front page (I am not a subscriber, but for the low cost I probably should).

I went looking for a free source yesterday and found www.teamrankings.com

The difference between offensive and defensive efficiency home vs away is pretty striking

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency

There are a ton of other offensive and defensive categories to examine - warning, it is a serious time suck rabbit hole if you are so inclined.

All that is to say that, yes, I agree that being home should be a boost, the recent NC State game notwithstanding.

[Troublemaker]

Pitt is one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Let's see if we can have a clean ball-handling and decision-making game against the Panthers.

Duke has put up some yucky turnover numbers in conference:

16 vs BC
16 @FSU
18 @Lville
15 @Wake
15 @ND

Playing at home, against Pitt, let's aim for 10 or fewer turnovers.

[English]

Well, Pitt can play with the top teams of the conference, Louisville not withstanding. That's evident after tonight.

Pitt has been a bit mercurial this conference season--after losing by a point to ND and beating UVa in OT to open their record, they've gotten absolutely annihilated at home by some other teams (UofL, Miami). Last night was another solid performance, losing by 2 @college of dumpsville.

They've sprinkled in some other decent, if mediocre, performances:
- Lost by 11 @Cuse
- Lost by 5 @UofL
- Lost by 5 @NCSU
- Lost by 7 vs Clemson

They're the cellar dwellers of the conference, although in a limited sample, that hasn't been kind to us at home. If we continue the trend upward we've been seeing with our team play and concerted effort on defense, we should have enough. No conference game is easy this season, but at home, I like our chances.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Surprised no one brought this up.

Pitt is sandwiched between Duke's best performance of the year and the looming UNC home game. It's a classic "trap game".

IMO, this will not be a trap game, however. Because Duke isn't good enough to say, "We are invincible!" And because we desperately want to get back on top and still have a long way to go. Because I suspect Coach K will be back and the players will be amped. And because this is another game where we can work hard on team chemistry, team defense, and hustling back on D after a missed shot/turnover.

[CDu]

Surprised no one brought this up.

Pitt is sandwiched between Duke's best performance of the year and the looming UNC home game. It's a classic "trap game".

IMO, this will not be a trap game, however. Because Duke isn't good enough to say, "We are invincible!" And because we desperately want to get back on top and still have a long way to go. Because I suspect Coach K will be back and the players will be amped. And because this is another game where we can work hard on team chemistry, team defense, and hustling back on D after a missed shot/turnover.

Good point. I think it would have the potential to be a trap game were it not for two things:
1. what you said above; and
2. the amount of time between the last game and this one and the amount of time between the Pitt and UNC games

The UNC game is so far away (still 8 days from now), so it's a little harder to overlook Pitt.

If we were talking about a 2-day turnaround between Pitt and UNC and a short turnaround from Notre Dame to Pitt, I'd be a lot more worried about the possibility of a trap game.

That, and given the team's (relative) struggles, I don't know that any game is overlooked now.

[kAzE]

Surprised no one brought this up.

Pitt is sandwiched between Duke's best performance of the year and the looming UNC home game. It's a classic "trap game".

IMO, this will not be a trap game, however. Because Duke isn't good enough to say, "We are invincible!" And because we desperately want to get back on top and still have a long way to go. Because I suspect Coach K will be back and the players will be amped. And because this is another game where we can work hard on team chemistry, team defense, and hustling back on D after a missed shot/turnover.

I'd say Pitt's chances are slim. They'd have to play lights out to overcome the energy in the building with the return of Coach K, if he is indeed coming back.

[Troublemaker]

Surprised no one brought this up.

Pitt is sandwiched between Duke's best performance of the year and the looming UNC home game. It's a classic "trap game".

IMO, this will not be a trap game, however. Because Duke isn't good enough to say, "We are invincible!" And because we desperately want to get back on top and still have a long way to go. Because I suspect Coach K will be back and the players will be amped. And because this is another game where we can work hard on team chemistry, team defense, and hustling back on D after a missed shot/turnover.

Yep. This team has just gotten the taste of winning in the ACC, and we like it, and we're motivated to keep the ball rolling.

Trap games are a concern for teams that are fat and happy. We're not fat and happy yet.

[mgtr]

Well, I am far less sanguine about our chances after watching last night's game. Pitt looked pretty good, although UNC looked pretty bad. I think we will win, but it won't be easy. Need some bigs to step up.

[CDu]

Well, I am far less sanguine about our chances after watching last night's game. Pitt looked pretty good, although UNC looked pretty bad. I think we will win, but it won't be easy. Need some bigs to step up.

I wouldn't let last night's game worry you. UNC lost to Georgia Tech not very long before we blew them out of the building. Matchups are different. They also lost by 26 to Miami and by 50+ at Louisville. And they beat UVa and barely lost to Notre Dame. Pitt is an okay team that can play on par with good teams or get blown out. The result against UNC is just more of the same from them.

[tbyers11]

Yep. This team has just gotten the taste of winning in the ACC, and we like it, and we're motivated to keep the ball rolling.

Trap games are a concern for teams that are fat and happy. We're not fat and happy yet.

3 reasons why I agree that we won't be fat and happy for this game.

1) We aren't good enough yet
2) Last home game against a supposedly lesser opponent (NC State), we gakked all over ourselves
3) We got absolutely smoked (76-62) at Pitt last year and it really wasn't that close. While a lot of our team didn't play in that game, I think the memory is fresh enough to keep us from being overconfident

Now I'm not saying that we definitely win, but I don't think we come out flat/unfocused.

[NM Duke Fan]

Yep. This team has just gotten the taste of winning in the ACC, and we like it, and we're motivated to keep the ball rolling.

Trap games are a concern for teams that are fat and happy. We're not fat and happy yet.

The only way this particular Duke team should ever be fat and happy is after a huge celebratory meal following a successful national championship game!

[Rich]

Playing at home, against Pitt, let's aim for 10 or fewer turnovers.

I'll do my part. I promise to have no more than two, apple and peach.

[Troublemaker]

I'll do my part. I promise to have no more than two, apple and peach.

Mmmm, good choices, but Duke's turnovers are not as sweet (nor are they savory).

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I'd like to think a Giles/Bolden coming out party is in our future, and the Pitt game would be a great time for that. Hopefully Tatum plays as well as he did last game.

[superdave]

Pitt is one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Let's see if we can have a clean ball-handling and decision-making game against the Panthers.

Duke has put up some yucky turnover numbers in conference:

16 vs BC
16 @FSU
18 @Lville
15 @Wake
15 @ND

Playing at home, against Pitt, let's aim for 10 or fewer turnovers.

Yeah, big point of emphasis here. The team needs to move the ball better, and stop playing one on one with four guys watching. That should help with turnovers a good bit. I really would like to see more set plays called until they develop better chemistry. The dribble-weave handoff stuff is driving me a little nuts because our guys are trying to go by themselves from 25 feet out into the lane. It just gives the defense too much time to get ready. I'd rather drive and kick or hit a guy on the move.

[NYBri]

Watched some of the Pitt/Dumpster game last night and it's always interesting to watch other teams play each other in the ACC. I was struck at how few ball screens they ran, which is always odd to see since I'm so used to seeing everyone run the high screen/pick and roll every other play against us.

I also know that, for some reason Brey didn't run that offense against us in the last game. As a result, the game took on a completely different dynamic.

I'll be curious to see if either or both teams over the next two games go to the the ball screen/double screen offense to see if our defense has gotten over allowing them to have lay up drills all night.

I want Pitt to try it to see if we have improved, or if the ND game was an aberration because they didn't attack our biggest weakness.

Before I'm accused of being a wet blanket, I want to say that no one was more pleased with the win at ND and that it could be a turning point.

:cool:

[Bob Green]

I'd like to think a Giles/Bolden coming out party is in our future...

I definitely agree with you on Giles. He appears to be improving game by game. Bolden has barely played the last two games so he remains a big unknown.

[MChambers]

Watched some of the Pitt/Dumpster game last night and it's always interesting to watch other teams play each other in the ACC. I was struck at how few ball screens they ran, which is always odd to see since I'm so used to seeing everyone run the high screen/pick and roll every other play against us.

I also know that, for some reason Brey didn't run that offense against us in the last game. As a result, the game took on a completely different dynamic.

I'll be curious to see if either or both teams over the next two games go to the the ball screen/double screen offense to see if our defense has gotten over allowing them to have lay up drills all night.

I want Pitt to try it to see if we have improved, or if the ND game was an aberration because they didn't attack our biggest weakness.

Before I'm accused of being a wet blanket, I want to say that no one was more pleased with the win at ND and that it could be a turning point.

:cool:
As Troublemaker noted in the post-game thread, Notre Dame did indeed run it quite a bit. We usually iced it, rather than hedging.

I haven't seen Pitt play, but from the descriptions others have nicely supplied, it doesn't sound like Pitt's personnel are well suited to running high ball screens, but maybe I'm wrong.

[Bob Green]

I haven't seen Pitt play, but from the descriptions others have nicely supplied, it doesn't sound like Pitt's personnel are well suited to running high ball screens, but maybe I'm wrong.

I watched the Pitt - Carolina game last night and ball handling did not appear to be Pitt's strong suite. They moved the ball around via the pass to get shots but dribbling and driving were limited.

A strategy we might see Duke employ is the full or three-quarters court nuisance press. A press designed to eat 10-12 seconds off the shot clock before the offense gets into its sets. Pitt made a lot of 3 PT FGs (13-29/44.8%) against Carolina, which means we are going to have to guard the 3 PT line.

On defense, Pitt played zone so ball movement by our offense will be key. Passing the ball to Jefferson at the elbow, or perhaps Tatum, to attack the center of the zone will be required. Getting out in transition off missed shots or turnovers to attack the rim before the defense has an opportunity to get set would be nice.

[NYBri]

As Troublemaker noted in the post-game thread, Notre Dame did indeed run it quite a bit. We usually iced it, rather than hedging.

I haven't seen Pitt play, but from the descriptions others have nicely supplied, it doesn't sound like Pitt's personnel are well suited to running high ball screens, but maybe I'm wrong.

I disagree with Troublemaker. Watch it again. Compared to State, ND ran it infrequently.

[MChambers]

I disagree with Troublemaker. Watch it again. Compared to State, ND ran it infrequently.

Thanks for the suggestion, but once was enough. For the most part, when ND ran high ball screens, Duke did a good job. There was one instance where Jefferson and Tatum bungled assignments after the hedge and Colson got a layup. The sideline reporter said something about how Jefferson glared at Tatum as they went back up court.

Feel free to watch again, however, if you think it's that important.

[slower]

I'd like to think a Giles/Bolden coming out party is in our future, and the Pitt game would be a great time for that. Hopefully Tatum plays as well as he did last game.

Hancock, your efforts in Chat did not go unappreciated, buddy! :p

If Giles and Bolden need similar motivation, we're counting on you.

[superdave]

Perusing the ACCSports twitter account....they posted a mid-season All-ACC vote today. Pitt players receiving votes - Jamel Artis and Michael Young.

Here's hoping neither goes Bonzie Colson or Bootsie Thornton on us. (Or Harold Arcineaux for that matter.)

Luke was first on all three ballots.

[Pghdukie]

Pitt has nothing to lose. This will be their Super Bowl, Final Four, US Open, Stanley Cup, America's Cup whatever. Cameron Indoor will be the last hurrah.

[Troublemaker]

I disagree with Troublemaker. Watch it again. Compared to State, ND ran it infrequently.

Ha, I kind of suspect you've made some humorous side bet: "Watch. I bet I can make this dude on DBR post 30 GIFs." Not gonna work, bro. (For one thing, I don't have time this week.)

But look, I guarantee you Notre Dame ran a ball screen 30+ times in a 40-minute game, which is plenty. I don't know if that's more or less than what NCSU did, but it's a worthy test. Notre Dame has had great success against Duke with ball screens in recent years, so I'm happy that Duke held up well on Monday.

And it's not even surprising that we did. If Duke can play each of those starters (Allen-Kennard-Jones-Tatum-Jefferson) 30+ minutes as we did against ND, we will probably play good defense. That was a very tight and vet-heavy rotation, one that the coaches probably wanted to use against Wake as well but Jayson and Amile got into foul trouble.

I get the sense that the coaches were spooked by the NCSU loss, started thinking about the possibility of missing the tournament, and decided to go vet-heavy to secure some wins.

[jv001]

Ha, I kind of suspect you've made some humorous side bet: "Watch. I bet I can make this dude on DBR post 30 GIFs." Not gonna work, bro. (For one thing, I don't have time this week.)

But look, I guarantee you Notre Dame ran a ball screen 30+ times in a 40-minute game, which is plenty. I don't know if that's more or less than what NCSU did, but it's a worthy test. Notre Dame has had great success against Duke with ball screens in recent years, so I'm happy that Duke held up well on Monday.

And it's not even surprising that we did. If Duke can play each of those starters 30+ minutes as we did against ND, we will probably play good defense. That was a very tight and vet-heavy rotation, one that the coaches probably wanted to use against Wake as well but Jayson and Amile got into foul trouble.

I get the sense that the coaches were spooked by the NCSU loss, started thinking about the possibility of missing the tournament, and decided to go vet-heavy.

On some possessions, ND ran more than one ball screen(probably 3 times). I would re-watch the game and count the exact number of times, but I have more personal things that I must do, but my eye test tells me the 30+ times is correct. GoDuke!

[uh_no]

I get the sense that the coaches were spooked by the NCSU loss, started thinking about the possibility of missing the tournament, and decided to go vet-heavy to secure some wins.

I don't think they're on the floor because they're vets. They're on the floor because they're playing the best basketball on the team. the fact that luke and grayson each only got mid twenties minutes against NCSU was a major concern, and one that has since been rectified. We need to keep our best players on the floor for high minutes, and that's what we've done.

It's a shame bolden seems to have gotten squeezed by that...so hopefully he works his way back into the rotation.

[Troublemaker]

I don't think they're on the floor because they're vets. They're on the floor because they're playing the best basketball on the team. the fact that luke and grayson each only got mid twenties minutes against NCSU was a major concern, and one that has since been rectified.

There's, of course, overlap between being more experienced and being one of the best players.


We need to keep our best players on the floor for high minutes, and that's what we've done.

It's a shame bolden seems to have gotten squeezed by that...so hopefully he works his way back into the rotation.

Yes, so much for the "Coach Capel will play a much deeper rotation than Coach K" predictions that abounded when Coach Capel was handed the reigns. However, I will say that -- just like last season against GaTech -- Coach Capel is willing to give Vrank a short stint in the game.

[MCFinARL]

There's, of course, overlap between being more experienced and being one of the best players.



Yes, so much for the "Coach Capel will play a much deeper rotation than Coach K" predictions that abounded when Coach Capel was handed the reigns. However, I will say that -- just like last season against GaTech -- Coach Capel is willing to give Vrank a short stint in the game.

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but I'm pretty sure Coach Capel hasn't been handed the reigns yet, just the reins. Coach K is still king.

[gotoguy]

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but I'm pretty sure Coach Capel hasn't been handed the reigns yet, just the reins. Coach K is still king.

royally done!

[Troublemaker]

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but I'm pretty sure Coach Capel hasn't been handed the reigns yet, just the reins. Coach K is still king.

No need to apologize. I'm a fan of spelling, too.

[Billy Dat]

I'd like to think a Giles/Bolden coming out party is in our future, and the Pitt game would be a great time for that. Hopefully Tatum plays as well as he did last game.

Yes, so much for the "Coach Capel will play a much deeper rotation than Coach K" predictions that abounded when Coach Capel was handed the reigns. However, I will say that -- just like last season against GaTech -- Coach Capel is willing to give Vrank a short stint in the game.

I don't think they're on the floor because they're vets. They're on the floor because they're playing the best basketball on the team. the fact that luke and grayson each only got mid twenties minutes against NCSU was a major concern, and one that has since been rectified. We need to keep our best players on the floor for high minutes, and that's what we've done. It's a shame bolden seems to have gotten squeezed by that...so hopefully he works his way back into the rotation.

Harry is in the rotation and Bolden is not, and I am guessing Harry's rebounding and recent contributions to the final minutes of both the Wake and ND wins give him a leg up. As such, maybe Harry will have a coming out party. I though Bolden's performance against Miami may have been a coming out party but the loss to NCSU was sort of a big reset for the team. Capel experimented starting the guys who played so well against Miami but it didn't pay off.

The season started, not by design, with last year's team plus Frank (and Amile), and they played their butts off losing only that Kansas game. Then, the rest of the freshmen became available and the coaches started using line-ups they though represented our upside. Granted, it's hard to call that experiment a failure because of all the ensuing drama (Grayson, K out, many injuries), but we're back to that early season Amile-Grayson-Luke-Matt core and Jayson is probably, barring some really bad play on his part, locked into the starting 5 with Harry and Frank off the bench. After that, it's White if we have massive perimeter foul trouble and Bolden/Vrank/Javin if we need size. Because so many teams play small now, the frontcourt depth isn't really helping us much. It's funny that we're back to 7, but why the heck are we surprised? (I am saying this to myself, too)

[Doria]

Defensive draws against Artis and Young will be key. We've got to be better than Carolina at guarding, or running guys off of, the three-point line. Carolina was pretty terrible at it (though Pitt, to their credit made some contested shots, as well).

We don't need to hold them to single digits or anything, though I wouldn't say no to that, but pressuring shooters without opening up inside will be important. I realize that is true every game, but Pitt is clearly capable of making shots at a high rate if they're hot.

I'm sure the guys will want to wipe the memory if our last home game away; well, I sure do, at least :p

[devildeac]

No need to apologize. I'm a fan of spelling, too.

Good to read he didn't rain on your parade. :o

Perhaps with the Pitt performance at the dump, our players and coaches will be a bit more attentive/wary of the Panthers upset potential than if the cheaters had pounded them by 20-30 points or more on Tuesday.

[Troublemaker]

Harry is in the rotation and Bolden is not, and I am guessing Harry's rebounding and recent contributions to the final minutes of both the Wake and ND wins give him a leg up. As such, maybe Harry will have a coming out party. I though Bolden's performance against Miami may have been a coming out party but the loss to NCSU was sort of a big reset for the team. Capel experimented starting the guys who played so well against Miami but it didn't pay off.

The season started, not by design, with last year's team plus Frank (and Amile), and they played their butts off losing only that Kansas game. Then, the rest of the freshmen became available and the coaches started using line-ups they though represented our upside. Granted, it's hard to call that experiment a failure because of all the ensuing drama (Grayson, K out, many injuries), but we're back to that early season Amile-Grayson-Luke-Matt core and Jayson is probably, barring some really bad play on his part, locked into the starting 5 with Harry and Frank off the bench. After that, it's White if we have massive perimeter foul trouble and Bolden/Vrank/Javin if we need size. Because so many teams play small now, the frontcourt depth isn't really helping us much. It's funny that we're back to 7, but why the heck are we surprised? (I am saying this to myself, too)

Yeah, I do believe the coaches when they say their plan pre-injuries was to be big this season. (See GaTech postgame). Which would've been conducive to an 8-man rotation. But it's possible the way things evolved with the injuries and trying to build chemistry while navigating a loaded ACC, that the coaches now think the best path forward is to play small and give the 4 vets lots of minutes. Which is conducive to a 7-man rotation. Maybe if Harry and Marques (in practice) make big leaps, we will evolve back towards being big and a 8-man rotation at some point.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, I do believe the coaches when they say their plan pre-injuries was to be big this season. (See GaTech postgame). Which would've been conducive to an 8-man rotation. But it's possible the way things evolved with the injuries and trying to build chemistry while navigating a loaded ACC, that the coaches now think the best path forward is to play small and give the 4 vets lots of minutes. Which is conducive to a 7-man rotation. Maybe if Harry and Marques (in practice) make big leaps, we will evolve back towards being big and a 8-man rotation at some point.

You mean, like Tatum being much better fitted for the 4 than the 3? That to me is the reason for the current line-up and rotation.

"You can teach an old dog new tricks, but that old dog will often do what comes natural." -What John Fitzherbert really meant to say

If Knox comes to Duke, we're gonna have the same conversations on DBR. But he too will end up playing the 4.

[BandAlum83]

I don't think they're on the floor because they're vets. They're on the floor because they're playing the best basketball on the team. the fact that luke and grayson each only got mid twenties minutes against NCSU was a major concern, and one that has since been rectified. We need to keep our best players on the floor for high minutes, and that's what we've done.

It's a shame bolden seems to have gotten squeezed by that...so hopefully he works his way back into the rotation.

It seems to me that we've turned the corner on trying to force-fit certain players into the lineup in order to get them reps and experience in hopes of getting up to game speed.

As someone else on these boards said somewhere, "you can't play potential in February".

[kAzE]

You mean, like Tatum being much better fitted for the 4 than the 3? That to me is the reason for the current line-up and rotation.

"You can teach an old dog new tricks, but that old dog will often do what comes natural." -What John Fitzherbert really meant to say

If Knox comes to Duke, we're gonna have the same conversations on DBR. But he too will end up playing the 4.

To be fair, I think Jayson Tatum could easily be a great small forward on a Duke team. It's just not the best fit for him on THIS Duke team. This Duke team has 3 guards who are among the best 5 players on the team in Luke, Grayson, and Matt. Jayson can't play the 3 because we want those veteran guards in as much possible, with any extra guard minutes going to Frank, who can only play the role of a perimeter player.

Now, if Harry Giles was playing like the #1 overall draft pick, and Amile was 100% healthy, I bet Jayson would be playing a lot of small forward. Unfortunately, Harry is not playing at that level yet.

Jayson is a great player because you have to option to play him at the 4, but that doesn't mean he's just not good at anything else. If you swapped him for Kyle Singler on either the 2010 or 2011 roster, he would almost certainly have been the small forward on those teams, with Lance/Zoubek in the front court in 2010, and Ryan Kelly/MP2 in 2011.

I don't look at Jayson's 3 point percentage and label him as a bad shooter. The guy is a 84.3% shooter from the foul line. He's a good shooter, I think he just needs to adapt to the speed of the college game. He does needs to work on his passing and vision, but a lot of young guys who are superior scoring talents in high school tend to develop tunnel vision with the ball in their hands. He's shown a penchant for taking tougher than necessary shots thus far . . . and that is probably something that is going to be coached out of his game as we get closer to March. I don't believe we've seen Jayson's best yet, and that 3FG% will definitely come up as he gets more comfortable.

[Troublemaker]

You mean, like Tatum being much better fitted for the 4 than the 3? That to me is the reason for the current line-up and rotation.

"You can teach an old dog new tricks, but that old dog will often do what comes natural." -What John Fitzherbert really meant to say

If Knox comes to Duke, we're gonna have the same conversations on DBR. But he too will end up playing the 4.

Well, those are two different things. Of course Duke likes to play a stretch 4. I think the last time I researched it, it was something like 18 out of the past 21 seasons, Duke has played a stretch 4.

But I think the biggest factor is the coaches weren't happy with the pace of growth from Harry and Marques after their returns from injury, and it looks like they prefer to just play Amile for most of the minutes at the 5. The NCSU loss triggered an emergency alarm in their heads.

Is Jayson a better 4 than a 3? Yeah, I lean that way. But I think Duke would've been perfectly fine playing Jayson at the 3 if the young bigs had performed like we envisioned they would perform in the offseason. For understandable reasons, they have not. (Although I personally still like the strides I've seen from Harry recently. With Marques, though, I'm just confused.)

[uh_no]

It seems to me that we've turned the corner on trying to force-fit certain players into the lineup in order to get them reps and experience in hopes of getting up to game speed.

As someone else on these boards said somewhere, "you can't play potential in February".

Agree. we tried to figure out how to get harry/marques on the floor with jayson, and it hasn't really worked. That doesn't mean that harry and marques will not be essential moving forward.....quite the contrary. I think both of them, and now maybe vrank, are critical pieces of this team. Maybe they'll play some better in the next month, maybe they wonn't. But I would bet that if we were to have a successful postseason, they will play some important role.

[flyingdutchdevil]

To be fair, I think Jayson Tatum could easily be a great small forward on a Duke team. It's just not the best fit for him on THIS Duke team. This Duke team has 3 guards who are among the best 5 players on the team in Luke, Grayson, and Matt. Jayson can't play the 3 because we want those veteran guards in as much possible, with any extra guard minutes going to Frank, who can only play the role of a perimeter player.

I think this is part of it. But you have to remember the coaching personnel. Coach K LOVES his spread 4s. From Battier to Winslow to Ingram to Demarcus Nelson to the White Raven to Jabari to countless others, Coach K has probably utilized a stretch 4 more often than any other big time coach. The times that he hasn't (Singler Jr Year is a solid example) are more often than not a product of the lack of a strength 4 or not enough guards to play a big wing at the 4. And I'm sure any examples people provide will be when Clinton was president. Actually, McBob's freshman year maybe the only true exception.


Jayson is a great player because you have to option to play him at the 4, but that doesn't mean he's just not good at anything else. If you swapped him for Kyle Singler on either the 2010 or 2011 roster, he would almost certainly have been the small forward on those teams, with Lance/Zoubek in the front court in 2010, and Ryan Kelly/MP2 in 2011.

Well, Jayson would HAVE to play the 3 in 2010, given the lack of any guard depth (we only had Dawkins, and he wasn't ready for meaningful minutes. Just meaningful 3s against Baylor). 2011 is a good example, although Kelly was a stretch 4 as well. And there is the possibility that Coach K could have gone Irving, Smith, and Curry at the 1-3 with Tatum/MP2 at the 4-5. We can't know for certain.


I don't look at Jayson's 3 point percentage and label him as a bad shooter. The guy is a 84.3% shooter from the foul line. He's a good shooter, I think he just needs to adapt to the speed of the college game. He does needs to work on his passing and vision, but a lot of young guys who are superior scoring talents in high school tend to develop tunnel vision with the ball in their hands. He's shown a penchant for taking tougher than necessary shots thus far . . . and that is probably something that is going to be coached out of his game as we get closer to March. I don't believe we've seen Jayson's best yet, and that 3FG% will definitely come up as he gets more comfortable.

I too don't think Tatum is a bad shooter. But he's been really poor from the 3pt line and his high school bread-and-butter - the mid-range - hasn't been that effective this year. Tatum wants to shoot, and you can't really unteach that, so putting him at the 4 where he will generally be quicker than his opponent is a really good move. It allows him to take his man off the dribble, leading to higher percentage shots. At the 3, I feel that Tatum knows he has a major height advantage and just launches away.

Anywho, consider me a fan of Tatum at the 4, as with any semi-beefy 6'7"+ Duke player with a jump shot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, those are two different things. Of course Duke likes to play a stretch 4. I think the last time I researched it, it was something like 18 out of the past 21 seasons, Duke has played a stretch 4.

But I think the biggest factor is the coaches weren't happy with the pace of growth from Harry and Marques after their returns from injury, and it looks like they prefer to just play Amile for most of the minutes at the 5. The NCSU loss triggered an emergency alarm in their heads.

Is Jayson a better 4 than a 3? Yeah, I lean that way. But I think Duke would've been perfectly fine playing Jayson at the 3 if the young bigs had performed like we envisioned they would perform in the offseason. For understandable reasons, they have not. (Although I personally still like the strides I've seen from Harry recently. With Marques, though, I'm just confused.)

I don't think we'll see eye-to-eye on this. I see Tatum at the 4 more as a product of "Tatum is better suited at the 4 in any scenario" than "pace of growth from Harry and Marques aren't up to par". To me, Tatum was built to play the Duke 4 position. Even a highly improved Giles would make me think that Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles would have to share the 4/5 rather than having Tatum at the 3 with Giles and Jefferson at the 4 and 5.

At least we agree that Tatum is better at the 4 than the 3, especially with three players in Grayson, Kennard, and Jones that you have to lean on as much as possible.

[Indoor66]

To be fair, I think Jayson Tatum could easily be a great small forward on a Duke team. It's just not the best fit for him on THIS Duke team. This Duke team has 3 guards who are among the best 5 players on the team in Luke, Grayson, and Matt. Jayson can't play the 3 because we want those veteran guards in as much possible, with any extra guard minutes going to Frank, who can only play the role of a perimeter player.

Now, if Harry Giles was playing like the #1 overall draft pick, and Amile was 100% healthy, I bet Jayson would be playing a lot of small forward. Unfortunately, Harry is not playing at that level yet.

Jayson is a great player because you have to option to play him at the 4, but that doesn't mean he's just not good at anything else. If you swapped him for Kyle Singler on either the 2010 or 2011 roster, he would almost certainly have been the small forward on those teams, with Lance/Zoubek in the front court in 2010, and Ryan Kelly/MP2 in 2011.

I don't look at Jayson's 3 point percentage and label him as a bad shooter. The guy is a 84.3% shooter from the foul line. He's a good shooter, I think he just needs to adapt to the speed of the college game. He does needs to work on his passing and vision, but a lot of young guys who are superior scoring talents in high school tend to develop tunnel vision with the ball in their hands. He's shown a penchant for taking tougher than necessary shots thus far . . . and that is probably something that is going to be coached out of his game as we get closer to March. I don't believe we've seen Jayson's best yet, and that 3FG% will definitely come up as he gets more comfortable.

You gotta dance either who brung ya or with who can bring ya.

[MrPoon]

You gotta dance either who brung ya or with who can bring ya.

Maybe I can split the hairs a little further. I think the staff would prefer to play Tatum at the 3. We've seen it briefly a few times. The reasoning is this: K and staff like to play a system that gets the best players the most PT which is why they often play such a shallow bench. When Giles has shown his best flashes, looking most like the player they hoped to have, they went big with Amile at the 4 Tatum 3. Tatum is a beautiful fit for the classic stretch 4 at Duke, no doubt. But coach has always build around the characteristics of the roster. Kelly was a natural stretch 4. Etc. But when the roster allowed for it, Singler moved to the 3 and that was one of my favoite lineups. Skilled AND really big.

The problem is two fold. Giles isn't there (yet?) AND Tatum's best work has been at the 4. The ball moves better, he attacks the rim more, less contested threes, less likely to turnover the ball etc. Neither is ready for that optimal lineup.

My 2 cents. If I had a magic wand, Jr. year Giles (time machine anyone), Jefferson, Tatum, Kinnard, GA would be our starting line up and it would be a beast.

[Ballboy1998]

Maybe I can split the hairs a little further. I think the staff would prefer to play Tatum at the 3. We've seen it briefly a few times. The reasoning is this: K and staff like to play a system that gets the best players the most PT which is why they often play such a shallow bench. When Giles has shown his best flashes, looking most like the player they hoped to have, they went big with Amile at the 4 Tatum 3. Tatum is a beautiful fit for the classic stretch 4 at Duke, no doubt. But coach has always build around the characteristics of the roster. Kelly was a natural stretch 4. Etc. But when the roster allowed for it, Singler moved to the 3 and that was one of my favoite lineups. Skilled AND really big.

The problem is two fold. Giles isn't there (yet?) AND Tatum's best work has been at the 4. The ball moves better, he attacks the rim more, less contested threes, less likely to turnover the ball etc. Neither is ready for that optimal lineup.

My 2 cents. If I had a magic wand, Jr. year Giles (time machine anyone), Jefferson, Tatum, Kinnard, GA would be our starting line up and it would be a beast.

The way I look at it, it isn't really a question of whether Tatum is better at the 4 or the 3, it is that he is much more efficient offensively with space in the middle to operate. When we go with the big lineup, none of Amile, Giles, Bolden, or Vrank are an offensive threat from beyond about 8ft, so things just get crowded in the middle and Tatum ends up being more reliant on longer jump shots, which is not where his offense has looked the best. This starts to get towards the positional semantics that we always talk about with Coach K, but I guess my point is just that Tatum's game works better with a 1 in 4 out offense than a 2 in 3 out offense.

Now, 2010 is a good example of where we had 2 starters who couldn't stretch the floor, but all three of Scheyer, Smith, and Singler were more efficient from the perimeter than Tatum has been up to this point, so they were hurt less by the lack of interior spacing. And beyond that, 2010 is a bit of an outlier amongst recent Duke teams in that regard.

[Dukehky]

Do we unveil our biggest advantage in this game -- the K?

I'm pretty sure that K will be back on Saturday.

[Troublemaker]

The way I look at it, it isn't really a question of whether Tatum is better at the 4 or the 3, it is that he is much more efficient offensively with space in the middle to operate. When we go with the big lineup, none of Amile, Giles, Bolden, or Vrank are an offensive threat from beyond about 8ft, so things just get crowded in the middle and Tatum ends up being more reliant on longer jump shots, which is not where his offense has looked the best. This starts to get towards the positional semantics that we always talk about with Coach K, but I guess my point is just that Tatum's game works better with a 1 in 4 out offense than a 2 in 3 out offense.

Now, 2010 is a good example of where we had 2 starters who couldn't stretch the floor, but all three of Scheyer, Smith, and Singler were more efficient from the perimeter than Tatum has been up to this point, so they were hurt less by the lack of interior spacing. And beyond that, 2010 is a bit of an outlier amongst recent Duke teams in that regard.

Despite that opening statement, pretty sure your post argues for Tatum being better at the 4 ;)

[Ballboy1998]

Despite that opening statement, pretty sure your post argues for Tatum being better at the 4 ;)

Ha, fair enough. With the personnel this team has, I think the offensive spacing is best with Tatum at the 4. But that conclusion is based more on the spacing issues created by having two players with no offensive range in the game when this team goes big than it is based on Tatum's skill set, which was my point. Tatum could be perfectly effective as a 3, but when he is at the 3 with this team, there is no one to put at the 4 that doesn't create spacing issues.

At bottom, I think my point is that the reason the small lineup works better is more because of Jefferson than Tatum. Jefferson, who I absolutely love as a player and want on the floor as much as possible, has no range and is therefore an ill-suited 4 for the modern game. Relatedly, I think that is why the 2015 team did better once Winslow moved to the 4 -- because with Jefferson at the 4 there was no floor spacing, not because Winslow's skill set was necessarily a better fit for the 4 than the 3.

[CDu]

Ha, fair enough. With the personnel this team has, I think the offensive spacing is best with Tatum at the 4. But that conclusion is based more on the spacing issues created by having two players with no offensive range in the game when this team goes big than it is based on Tatum's skill set, which was my point. Tatum could be perfectly effective as a 3, but when he is at the 3 with this team, there is no one to put at the 4 that doesn't create spacing issues.

At bottom, I think my point is that the reason the small lineup works better is more because of Jefferson than Tatum. Jefferson, who I absolutely love as a player and want on the floor as much as possible, has no range and is therefore an ill-suited 4 for the modern game. Relatedly, I think that is why the 2015 team did better once Winslow moved to the 4 -- because with Jefferson at the 4 there was no floor spacing, not because Winslow's skill set was necessarily a better fit for the 4 than the 3.

Right. Tatum at the 3 with Ryan Kelly at the 4? That would work fine, because Kelly spreads the floor. Tatum at the 3 with Giles/Jefferson/Bolden/Jeter/DeLaurier/Vrankovic at the 4/5? Not so good with the spacing.

[Furniture]

I'm pretty sure that K will be back on Saturday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/827342392923738112/photo/1

[Tripping William]

Because CBS has this broadcast, I am assuming it won't appear among the WatchESPN replays. Does CBS have a similar replay function? Or is Blue Devil Network, through goduke.com, the only streaming replay option? Inquiring minds . . . . .

[Troublemaker]

Because CBS has this broadcast, I am assuming it won't appear among the WatchESPN replays. Does CBS have a similar replay function? Or is Blue Devil Network, through goduke.com, the only streaming replay option? Inquiring minds . . . . .

CBS does not put out replays for regular season games, AFAIK. (For tournament games, I believe they do or have in the past.)

That said, you probably won't have any problem finding the game on youtube the next day.

[Tripping William]

CBS does not put out replays for regular season games, AFAIK. (For tournament games, I believe they do or have in the past.)

That said, you probably won't have any problem finding the game on youtube the next day.

That's what I figured re: CBS. My only beef with BDN is that they have no "spoiler alert" function, and just list the score when they archive the game broadcast. Oh well. Thanks.

[ChillinDuke]

To be fair, I think Jayson Tatum could easily be a great small forward on a Duke team. It's just not the best fit for him on THIS Duke team. This Duke team has 3 guards who are among the best 5 players on the team in Luke, Grayson, and Matt. Jayson can't play the 3 because we want those veteran guards in as much possible, with any extra guard minutes going to Frank, who can only play the role of a perimeter player.

Now, if Harry Giles was playing like the #1 overall draft pick, and Amile was 100% healthy, I bet Jayson would be playing a lot of small forward. Unfortunately, Harry is not playing at that level yet.

Jayson is a great player because you have to option to play him at the 4, but that doesn't mean he's just not good at anything else. If you swapped him for Kyle Singler on either the 2010 or 2011 roster, he would almost certainly have been the small forward on those teams, with Lance/Zoubek in the front court in 2010, and Ryan Kelly/MP2 in 2011.

I don't look at Jayson's 3 point percentage and label him as a bad shooter. The guy is a 84.3% shooter from the foul line. He's a good shooter, I think he just needs to adapt to the speed of the college game. He does needs to work on his passing and vision, but a lot of young guys who are superior scoring talents in high school tend to develop tunnel vision with the ball in their hands. He's shown a penchant for taking tougher than necessary shots thus far . . . and that is probably something that is going to be coached out of his game as we get closer to March. I don't believe we've seen Jayson's best yet, and that 3FG% will definitely come up as he gets more comfortable.

Mostly agreed, and the bolded is something I wanted to highlight. For all the talk about Harry's/Marques' development and Jayson playing at the 4, I think the injuries to the freshmen were a major factor in how this season has shaped up. I also think what's been lost is the emergence of Luke. I don't think anyone expected Luke to be as good as he's been. Improved? Yes. But he's playing at an ACC POY level. That's a remarkable jump from his freshman year - and one I really don't think many (any?) of us expected. According to Kenneth P, of players that have at least 20% of possessions used (not exactly sure what that means), Luke Kennard is tops in the ACC in efficiency. And he's not even all that close to 2nd place Justin Jackson. It's just a really impressive leap by Luke. That leap, along with a somewhat interrelated (but mostly for other reasons) drop off by Grayson (#22 in the ACC by the same metric), has forced his playing very heavy minutes. That was an unexpected development and has shaped the dynamic and playing time of this team...a lot.

- Chillin

[Skydog]

... I also think what's been lost is the emergence of Luke. I don't think anyone expected Luke to be as good as he's been. Improved? Yes. But he's playing at an ACC POY level. That's a remarkable jump from his freshman year - and one I really don't think many (any?) of us expected. According to Kenneth P, of players that have at least 20% of possessions used (not exactly sure what that means), Luke Kennard is tops in the ACC in efficiency. And he's not even all that close to 2nd place Justin Jackson. It's just a really impressive leap by Luke. That leap, along with a somewhat interrelated (but mostly for other reasons) drop off by Grayson (#22 in the ACC by the same metric), has forced his playing very heavy minutes. That was an unexpected development and has shaped the dynamic and playing time of this team...a lot.

- Chillin
Not only is Kennard leading the ACC in offensive efficiency but if he continues scoring at his current rate for the rest of the season his 133.9pts/100 possession will be the highest of any regular player (minutes>50%) at Duke since Kenpom started keeping records in 2002! I know it's a big if but his efficiency ratings over the last three games have been 135, 149, and 130 so it's definitely possible.

Duke's 15 Most Efficient Scorers since 2002 (at least 50% min played*):
(Note: Actually 17 most efficient; had to leave Redicks So and Jr years in!)



Year __Name__ Yr G %Min ORtg TS% ARate TORate FC/40 FD/40 FT% 2P% 3P%
2017 Luke Kennard So 22 86 134 68 14 12 2.6 4.9 0.85 0.59 0.47
2002 Carlos Boozer Jr 35 71 131 70 7 14 4.3 5.9 0.75 0.67 0.00
2014 Tyler Thornton Sr 35 53 131 64 18 22 5.5 1.5 0.86 0.33 0.45
2014 Amile Jefferson So 35 57 130 62 8 12 4.7 3.4 0.49 0.64 0.00
2016 Marsh. Plumlee Sr 36 76 129 66 6 15 3.6 4.4 0.58 0.69 0.00
2008 Jon Scheyer So 34 71 128 61 15 12 2.3 4.7 0.89 0.49 0.39
2015 Quinn Cook Sr 39 89 127 61 13 11 2.2 3 0.89 0.54 0.40
2010 Jon Scheyer Sr 40 92 127 57 26 11 1.5 4.8 0.88 0.42 0.38
2016 Grayson Allen So 36 91 125 62 19 12 3 6 0.84 0.50 0.42
2011 Andre Dawkins So 37 53 123 65 5 14 3 2.5 0.79 0.62 0.43
2009 Jon Scheyer Jr 37 82 123 59 16 13 2 5.4 0.84 0.41 0.39
2015 Tyus Jones Fr 39 84 122 58 28 17 1.4 4 0.89 0.44 0.38
2011 Seth Curry So 37 62 122 60 14 13 2.7 3.4 0.79 0.40 0.44
2013 Seth Curry Sr 35 79 122 62 10 10 2.1 4.5 0.81 0.49 0.44
2003 J.J. Redick Fr 33 76 122 60 13 15 2.3 3.2 0.92 0.44 0.40
2004 J.J. Redick So 37 77 121 62 9 16 2.7 4.4 0.95 0.47 0.40
2005 J.J. Redick Jr 33 93 121 61 15 15 1.2 5.4 0.94 0.42 0.40


*If you drop all playing time requirements Kennard comes in 2nd. In his junior year Marshall Plumlee had an efficiency ration of 137.4 but only played 24% of minutes and used only 11% of our possessions. Any player using less 12% of possessions falls in Pomeroy's "nearly invisible" player classification.

[oakvillebluedevil]

*If you drop all playing time requirements Kennard comes in 2nd. In his junior year Marshall Plumlee had an efficiency ration of 137.4 but only played 24% of minutes and used only 11% of our possessions. Any player using less 12% of possessions falls in Pomeroy's "nearly invisible" player classification.

That's a great footnote.

I say to hell with sample size, give the man the title! :D

[NSDukeFan]

Not only is Kennard leading the ACC in offensive efficiency but if he continues scoring at his current rate for the rest of the season his 133.9pts/100 possession will be the highest of any regular player (minutes>50%) at Duke since Kenpom started keeping records in 2002! I know it's a big if but his efficiency ratings over the last three games have been 135, 149, and 130 so it's definitely possible.

Duke's 15 Most Efficient Scorers since 2002 (at least 50% min played*):
(Note: Actually 17 most efficient; had to leave Redicks So and Jr years in!)



Year __Name__ Yr G %Min ORtg TS% ARate TORate FC/40 FD/40 FT% 2P% 3P%
2017 Luke Kennard So 22 86 134 68 14 12 2.6 4.9 0.85 0.59 0.47
2002 Carlos Boozer Jr 35 71 131 70 7 14 4.3 5.9 0.75 0.67 0.00
2014 Tyler Thornton Sr 35 53 131 64 18 22 5.5 1.5 0.86 0.33 0.45
2014 Amile Jefferson So 35 57 130 62 8 12 4.7 3.4 0.49 0.64 0.00
2016 Marsh. Plumlee Sr 36 76 129 66 6 15 3.6 4.4 0.58 0.69 0.00
2008 Jon Scheyer So 34 71 128 61 15 12 2.3 4.7 0.89 0.49 0.39
2015 Quinn Cook Sr 39 89 127 61 13 11 2.2 3 0.89 0.54 0.40
2010 Jon Scheyer Sr 40 92 127 57 26 11 1.5 4.8 0.88 0.42 0.38
2016 Grayson Allen So 36 91 125 62 19 12 3 6 0.84 0.50 0.42
2011 Andre Dawkins So 37 53 123 65 5 14 3 2.5 0.79 0.62 0.43
2009 Jon Scheyer Jr 37 82 123 59 16 13 2 5.4 0.84 0.41 0.39
2015 Tyus Jones Fr 39 84 122 58 28 17 1.4 4 0.89 0.44 0.38
2011 Seth Curry So 37 62 122 60 14 13 2.7 3.4 0.79 0.40 0.44
2013 Seth Curry Sr 35 79 122 62 10 10 2.1 4.5 0.81 0.49 0.44
2003 J.J. Redick Fr 33 76 122 60 13 15 2.3 3.2 0.92 0.44 0.40
2004 J.J. Redick So 37 77 121 62 9 16 2.7 4.4 0.95 0.47 0.40
2005 J.J. Redick Jr 33 93 121 61 15 15 1.2 5.4 0.94 0.42 0.40


*If you drop all playing time requirements Kennard comes in 2nd. In his junior year Marshall Plumlee had an efficiency ration of 137.4 but only played 24% of minutes and used only 11% of our possessions. Any player using less 12% of possessions falls in Pomeroy's "nearly invisible" player classification.
So if I am interpreting correctly, Marshall is not only the greatest 3-point shooter in Duke history, along with his brother, but also the greatest offensive player in Duke history. The coaching staff just underused him.

[Kedsy]

So if I am interpreting correctly, Marshall is not only the greatest 3-point shooter in Duke history, along with his brother, but also the greatest offensive player in Duke history. The coaching staff just underused him.

I think oRtg tells us something, but it's usually the other side of the coin -- exposing low efficiency players like James Michael McAdoo and Nate Britt (and, sadly, Jayson Tatum). So while I guess Luke becoming the "most efficient" offensive player over Duke's last 15 seasons is noteworthy, if three of the top five in that category are Tyler Thornton, Marshall Plumlee, and sophomore Amile Jefferson, then I'm not sure how important a distinction it is.

[vick]

Mostly agreed, and the bolded is something I wanted to highlight. For all the talk about Harry's/Marques' development and Jayson playing at the 4, I think the injuries to the freshmen were a major factor in how this season has shaped up. I also think what's been lost is the emergence of Luke. I don't think anyone expected Luke to be as good as he's been. Improved? Yes. But he's playing at an ACC POY level. That's a remarkable jump from his freshman year - and one I really don't think many (any?) of us expected. According to Kenneth P, of players that have at least 20% of possessions used (not exactly sure what that means), Luke Kennard is tops in the ACC in efficiency. And he's not even all that close to 2nd place Justin Jackson. It's just a really impressive leap by Luke. That leap, along with a somewhat interrelated (but mostly for other reasons) drop off by Grayson (#22 in the ACC by the same metric), has forced his playing very heavy minutes. That was an unexpected development and has shaped the dynamic and playing time of this team...a lot.

- Chillin

It just means the share of possessions he consumes while on the floor by either shooting field goals, free throws, or turnovers. The details wind up being super-messy primarily because of offensive rebounds, but that's the gist (the gory details are here (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html) if you want to look...).

And your point is well-taken--in fact, if you look at ACC play alone (which I often do, since the differences in schedule strength within ACC play are minimal compared to non-conference), Kennard has the highest efficiency of any regular-rotation ACC player who used at least 20% of team possessions since at least 1997, which is far back as I can go. Sometimes I feel like the team's very real struggles in January have made us not appreciate how exceptional an offensive player Kennard has been.

[CDu]

I think oRtg tells us something, but it's usually the other side of the coin -- exposing low efficiency players like James Michael McAdoo and Nate Britt (and, sadly, Jayson Tatum). So while I guess Luke becoming the "most efficient" offensive player over Duke's last 15 seasons is noteworthy, if three of the top five in that category are Tyler Thornton, Marshall Plumlee, and sophomore Amile Jefferson, then I'm not sure how important a distinction it is.

ORtg has value, but only in measuring/comparing efficiency of "like" players. It is inappropriate to compare the ORtgs of low-usage players (like Thornton, Plumlee, and soph Jefferson) who don't dribble, never make aggressive passes, and only shoot when wide open to high-usage players like Kennard. ORtg will almost always favor the low-usage guy. So the fact that Kennard's ORtg AND his usage rate are both high is incredibly impressive. It is very difficult to have both a high usage rate AND a high ORtg.

[Furniture]

This is a lot of fun to watch...

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/827639266981322753/video/1

[devilish]

Hope the crazies find a way to honor a true Duke legend this afternoon... http://triblive.com/sports/kevingorman/11890981-74/groat-duke-pitt

[superdave]

This Monday to Saturday break is a long one. I'm ready for some hoops!

I am going to be looking for as close to 40 minutes of focus on the defensive end as possible today. I would also love to see a 3/4 court press to get some TO's and keep Pitt of rhythm. This feels like the type of game where the players will play well for Coach K. After the last two wins, that is more movement in the right direction, so I'll take it.

[Emerrick]

A) Glad Kevin is out of Vandy. Loving Vandy's new coach! With the exception of the SEC tourney win over Kentucky, I found Kevin disappointing for most of his years at Vandy.
B) I didn't know Kevin and Roy had such a tight relationship until I saw their post game hug. http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina/story/1751206-unc-pitt-roy-williams-postgame
C) I hope we destroy Pitt today. It will be a welcome change to cheer against Kevin.

7139

[duketaylor]

This is a lot of fun to watch...

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/827639266981322753/video/1

Very nice, thx for that. Kinda dispells the talk of unpacking of bags/luggage, IMO.

GO DUKE!!! GTHC, GTH!!!! 9F9F9F9F!!!!

[Bob Green]

I would also love to see a 3/4 court press to get some TO's and keep Pitt of rhythm.

I agree with you on the press especially about keeping Pitt out of rhythm. Pitt isn't a team with great ball handlers. I mentioned up thread (yeah, I'm repeating myself but it is the internet so it is okay) we could employ a nuisance press to eat up shot clock to give Pitt less time to run their offense.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Looking for a statement from our team and K today. Set the tone for this week, the rest of the ACC slate, and for March that we have arrived and are ready to fulfill the promise of the early season.

Let's go Duke!

[jv001]

Looking for a statement from our team and K today. Set the tone for this week, the rest of the ACC slate, and for March that we have arrived and are ready to fulfill the promise of the early season.

Let's go Duke!

I'm hoping for the same thing you are but at the same time, I'm hoping we are still improving. I'd like to see us hit our ceiling which is quite high in my opinion come ACCT and NCAAT time. Getting Amile completely healthy, our freshmen at their ceiling and Grayson back to All-American style just in time for those two tournaments. GoDuke!

[Brockt10]

Harry

14 and 10. Heard it here first.

[blUDAYvil]

This is a lot of fun to watch...

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/827639266981322753/video/1

Great video... makes me wonder if the ban on wearing Duke gear is still on...

[superdave]

Harry

14 and 10. Heard it here first.

I'll notify the moderators if you are wrong!

[TKG]

Matt Jones and Jayson Tatum should get no playing time.








I am kidding. Just screwing with my fellow DBR types.

[uh_no]

for anyone who thought he might be injured, bolden is warming up.... and so is chase, which is good to see

[jimmiles]

Matt Jones and Jayson Tatum should get no playing time.








I am kidding. Just screwing with my fellow DBR types.

hey man,,please don't do that I"ve had enough drama for 2 seasons

[OldPhiKap]

Matt Jones and Jayson Tatum should get no playing time.








I am kidding. Just screwing with my fellow DBR types.

I think we should stick with Capel, and tell Kryrerooski or however you say it to just stay home and chill.

[BandAlum83]

Harry

14 and 10. Heard it here first.

To go with Jayson's 26 and 15?

[duketaylor]

Sign:

K= G.O.A.T. Coach

Groat= G.O.A.T. Duke Athlete

Chant, maybe, one side, "GOAT Coach," other side side "GOAT athlete (or player)", point at each during their part of chant.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

To go with Jayson's 26 and 15?

And Amile's 25/15?

[BandAlum83]

And Amile's 25/15?

Seriously? Ain't happening. 12/12, but 10 of those 12 rebounds will be offensive and will net him 8 assists after kickouts.

[Indoor66]

Sign:

K= G.O.A.T. Coach

Groat= G.O.A.T. Duke Athlete

Chant, maybe, one side, "GOAT Coach," other side side "GOAT athlete (or player)", point at each during their part of chant.

That would be G.O.A.T COACH ... G.O.A.T. Groat

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[BD80]

And Amile's 25/15?

With Grayson getting 25 and Luke getting 30, the score is really adding up!

[Bob Green]

Starters: Jackson, Allen, Kennard, Tatum and Jefferson. I'm surprised to see Frank Jackson start over Matt Jones.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Pitt, starters posted...
http://www.scacchoops.com/pittsburgh-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-02042017

[flyingdutchdevil]

Starters: Jackson, Allen, Kennard, Tatum and Jefferson. I'm surprised to see Frank Jackson start over Matt Jones.

:mad: I don't like that. I love me some Matt Jones and his 7/8 or 1/9 shooting games.

[Troublemaker]

Matt sprained his ankle and might not play.

That would be tough. Hopefully somebody else can slow Artis if Matt can't go.

[Billy Dat]

Matt sprained his ankle and might not play.

That would be tough. Hopefully somebody else can slow Artis if Matt can't go.

Really?!?!?!? This team can't catch a break from an injury standpoint. It's maddening.

[NM Duke Fan]

Matt sprained his ankle and might not play.

That would be tough. Hopefully somebody else can slow Artis if Matt can't go.

That explains it ... the team will step up regardless.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall somebody figuring out that Matt plays at his best when coming off the bench/playing less than 30 mins a game. But if he's hurt, that's a different story. Why is it always foot/ankle/leg injuries with us?

[Kedsy]

Matt sprained his ankle and might not play.

That would be tough. Hopefully somebody else can slow Artis if Matt can't go.

If he misses the game, that would mean 8 of our top 9 guys will have missed at least one game with an injury (plus also our 11th guy). Unbelievable.

[Bob Green]

Ugh...the hits keep coming. We are going to need Frank Jackson to be steady.

[Skitzle]

If he misses the game, that would mean 8 of our top 9 guys will have missed at least one game with an injury (plus also our 11th guy). Unbelievable.

Kennard is one unique player then huh?

[BD80]

If he misses the game, that would mean 8 of our top 9 guys will have missed at least one game with an injury (plus also our 11th guy). Unbelievable.

Poor Luke. It is only a matter of time.

I predict the NCAA Championship game will be the first game this season in which every player and coach will be entirely healthy and available.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

Kennard is one unique player then huh?

*nervously knocks on wood*

Don't put that evil on us!

[fuse]

This is a lot of fun to watch...

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/827639266981322753/video/1

I gained a great appreciation at how young Tatum is watching this video. Good fun, thanks for sharing!

[Doria]

Matt sprained his ankle and might not play.

That would be tough. Hopefully somebody else can slow Artis if Matt can't go.


Poor Luke. It is only a matter of time.

I predict the NCAA Championship game will be the first game this season in which every player and coach will be entirely healthy and available.

Jeez, we should just have an all-over vigil thread... Unbelievable. And hey, no jinxing Kennard!

[Karl Beem]

Can't get much worse. An abominable performance.

[subzero02]

Can't get much worse. An abominable performance.

We had great looks, the ball just wasn't going through the hoop. Pitt has also made some tough defensive plays at the rim on several of our drives.

[Bob Green]

The story of the 1st half is 3-13 on 3 PT FGs. We had open looks that did not fall. The guys are going to have to make those shots in the 2nd half.

[Karl Beem]

The story of the 1st half is 3-13 on 3 PT FGs. We had open looks that did not fall. The guys are going to have to make those shots in the 2nd half.

Hopefully we can make those shots against the worst team in the league.

[rsvman]

Missed the first half. I was hoping for better than a tie against Pitt at home.
Maybe a better second half is coming?

[subzero02]

Very tight rims today...

[jipops]

Given that Duke is struggling yet again vs. a bad team at home, Capel looking again like a good option post K.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke playing good ball, shots just not falling.

[OldPhiKap]

Duke playing good ball, shots just not falling.

This. Too tight. Gotta think it will loosen up soon.

[mr. synellinden]

Give Pitt some credit. They are not a bad team. Playing very solid on both sides.

[OldPhiKap]

Give Pitt some credit. They are not a bad team. Playing very solid on both sides.

This, too.


But we are about to open up the game. Here come the Devils!!!

[Kfanarmy]

Would be interesting to see what vrank could do against Pitt's heavy guy Nix in the middle. He's able to move one Duke offensive player out of the way and still challenge anyone driving inside.

[whereinthehellami]

Pitt has good athletic size on defense. A good zone would help against them. Too many easy baskets on our man D.

[whereinthehellami]

Frank with a couple nice baskets!

Allen with the timely 3 x 3!

[Bob Green]

The 3 PT FGs are dropping now. 6-10 in the 2nd half. :cool:

[WHOneedsSOX]

Ugh, ESPN has a story up about Allen's tripping foul.

[rocketeli]

Given that Duke is struggling yet again vs. a bad team at home, Capel looking again like a good option post K.

sure. one half and let's fire the GOAT. makes perfect sense.

[rsvman]

Ugh, ESPN has a story up about Allen's tripping foul.

Cut me some slack, geez.

[Bob Green]

sure. one half and let's fire the GOAT. makes perfect sense.

You're misinterpreting jipops post.

[FerryFor50]

My goodness. That bench got super short with K back. 😳